{ "schema": "kkr-ledger/1.1", "generator": "kkr.py", "as_of": "2026-09-08T20:51:54Z", "disclosure": "FINDING 2026-07-29 (RPAS 4.02f, 4.02g, 4.03, 6.04). The 161 entries issued through 2026-07-29 carry no per-entry seal hash: their statements, probabilities, and deadlines are supported by this repository's public commit history (RPAS 4.04) and the external beacon (4.05), not by per-entry commitment. All 15 resolved entries lack a keyed/keyless determination made before resolution; by RPAS 4.03 their hits are KEYED by rule and bear on no faculty claim — the published Brier stands as arm-calibration arithmetic only, which is the only claim the arm ever made. Entries issued from 2026-07-30 are sealed at first save under the 4.02g construction: SHA-256 over the sorted-JSON of the eight pre-registered fields (statement, resolution, deadline, probability, failure_condition, keyed_keyless, keyed_keyless_rationale, date_issued). Separately, ALL 161 entries issued through 2026-07-29 carry no substantive failure condition (RPAS 4.02e, 4.03): 94 hold no value and 67 hold a migration placeholder. CORRECTION 2026-07-30: this finding previously stated 94, counting placeholder text as substance — the same defect class it reports; corrected in the open. None has resolved. Failure conditions and keyed/keyless determinations may still be added to open entries before their resolution (4.02f); an entry resolving without them is KEYED by rule and its miss stands. Entries issued from 2026-07-30 are refused a seal while the failure condition is absent (4.03). Nothing sealed or published is altered by this finding; it is printed, not repaired. AMENDED 2026-08-05 (RPAS 4.03, 4.06): the '15 resolved' count above was as of 2026-07-29; as of this amendment 23 of 27 resolved entries lack a pre-resolution keyed/keyless determination -- a permanent 4.03 failure printed per row -- and 4 comply (determined 2026-08-01, resolved 2026-08-03/04). 59 open entries carried undated determinations until re-affirmed and dated 2026-08-05; the undated originals stand in commit history. 26 determinations were corrected keyless-to-keyed on 2026-08-04 on mechanical cite_integrity grounds, authored by an Anthropic model classifying Anthropic forecaster arms -- a non-independent authority, disclosed as such pending blind adjudication. Two entries are VOID under RPAS 4.06 (2026-08-05, resolution-basis fidelity), voided before either claim's window opened, itemised with reasons in the ledger. Two entries sealed 2026-08-05 were already decided by the elicitation packet the arm read and stand to score as printed findings, not forecasts; the already-decided gate (foreclose_check) rejects the class at generation from 2026-08-06.", "anchor": { "mechanism": "public version-control history", "description": "This ledger is published in a public git repository. Every write is a commit with an independent timestamp that the desk cannot rewrite without the rewrite being visible to anyone holding an earlier clone (RPAS 4.04); the commitment hash is additionally beaconed to a channel the desk does not control (RPAS 4.05).", "repository": "https://github.com/OccultusTheoretician/netz", "path": "docs/ledger.json", "history": "https://github.com/OccultusTheoretician/netz/commits/main/docs/ledger.json", "verify": "python rpas_verify.py https://raw.githubusercontent.com/OccultusTheoretician/netz/main/docs/ledger.json recomputes every seal and every figure; --previous asserts append-only across any two snapshots." }, "projections": [ { "statement": "The Sinaloa Cartel will experience a confirmed internal leadership split or factional violence within 72 hours of Ismael 'El Mayo' Zambada's sentencing, as evidenced by at least two independent news reports documenting a violent clash between rival factions in Sinaloa state.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 30, "resolution": "At least two credible news sources (e.g., Al Jazeera, BBC World, or Guardian) report a violent internal conflict or leadership split within the Sinaloa Cartel within 72 hours of 2026-07-20, with specific mention of territorial or operational disputes.", "deadline": "2026-07-23", "citations": [ 1, 5 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-01", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2106.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-07-23", "notes": "[claude] Sentencing coverage on 2026-07-20 (Al Jazeera, AP, Bloomberg, CNN) reported the life sentence and Zambada calling for violence to end. CNN 2026-07-20 referenced the ongoing 2024-2025 Sinaloa factional conflict as background, not as a new post-sentencing clash.", "audit": { "auditor": "claude", "verdict": "MISS", "confidence": "moderate", "evidence": "Sentencing coverage on 2026-07-20 (Al Jazeera, AP, Bloomberg, CNN) reported the life sentence and Zambada calling for violence to end. CNN 2026-07-20 referenced the ongoing 2024-2025 Sinaloa factional conflict as background, not as a new post-sentencing clash.", "disconfirming": "No outlet in the 72-hour window reported a NEW violent clash or leadership split triggered by the sentencing; the factional war predates it by two years." }, "failure_condition": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)", "keyed_keyless": "unset", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)" }, { "statement": "The Nasdaq Composite Index will close below 18,000 on 2026-07-28, based on official market data from Yahoo Finance or Bloomberg.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 40, "resolution": "The closing value of the Nasdaq Composite Index on 2026-07-28 is below 18,000, as reported by Yahoo Finance or Bloomberg.", "deadline": "2026-07-28", "citations": [ 3, 13 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-02", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2106.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-07-28", "notes": "", "failure_condition": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)", "keyed_keyless": "unset", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)" }, { "statement": "Within 72 hours of the Paramount-Warner Bros merger pause, the 12 U.S. states opposing the merger will file a formal legal motion requesting the court to permanently block the merger, as documented in a public court filing or press release.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "A public court filing or official press release from one or more of the 12 U.S. states (e.g., California, New York, Texas) confirms the filing of a motion to permanently block the Paramount-Warner Bros merger within 72 hours of 2026-07-20.", "deadline": "2026-07-23", "citations": [ 2, 5 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-03", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2106.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-07-23", "notes": "[claude] The 12 states led by California AG Bonta had already obtained a temporary restraining order on 2026-07-20 (Deadline, NPR, Washington Post). Reporting indicates the next step is a preliminary injunction hearing targeted for late August or early September.", "audit": { "auditor": "claude", "verdict": "MISS", "confidence": "moderate", "evidence": "The 12 states led by California AG Bonta had already obtained a temporary restraining order on 2026-07-20 (Deadline, NPR, Washington Post). Reporting indicates the next step is a preliminary injunction hearing targeted for late August or early September.", "disconfirming": "No filing of a motion for permanent block was reported in the 07-21 to 07-23 window; procedurally the states were pursuing a preliminary injunction, not permanent relief." }, "failure_condition": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)", "keyed_keyless": "unset", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)" }, { "statement": "The U.S. Treasury yield on the 10-year note will exceed 4.8% on 2026-07-29, based on official data from the U.S. Department of the Treasury.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 60, "resolution": "The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds 4.8% on 2026-07-29, as reported by the U.S. Department of the Treasury or Bloomberg.", "deadline": "2026-07-29", "citations": [ 8, 13 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-04", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2106.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-07-31", "notes": "10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield closed 2026-07-29 at approximately 4.66% following the FOMC decision to hold rates. CNBC quote data for the session shows open 4.671%, day high 4.712%, day low 4.651%, prior close 4.622%. The 4.8% threshold was not reached on a closing or intraday basis. Trading Economics reported the 10-year rising to 4.66% on 07-29 after the Fed left the funds rate unchanged with three dissents favoring a 25bp increase.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds 4.8% on 2026-07-29, as reported by the U.S. Department of the Treasury or Bloomberg — is not met on or before 2026-07-29; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "unset", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)" }, { "statement": "The UK Labour government under Andy Burnham will announce a formal fiscal review of public spending within 72 hours of the cabinet announcement, as confirmed by a press release from No. 10 Downing Street.", "domain": "political", "probability": 30, "resolution": "A press release from No. 10 Downing Street or a transcript of a government statement confirms the launch of a formal fiscal review of public spending within 72 hours of 2026-07-20.", "deadline": "2026-07-23", "citations": [ 4, 10 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-05", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2106.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-07-23", "notes": "[claude] No No. 10 Downing Street press release announcing a formal fiscal review of public spending was found in reporting for 2026-07-20 through 2026-07-23.", "audit": { "auditor": "claude", "verdict": "MISS", "confidence": "low", "evidence": "No No. 10 Downing Street press release announcing a formal fiscal review of public spending was found in reporting for 2026-07-20 through 2026-07-23.", "disconfirming": "none found" }, "failure_condition": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)", "keyed_keyless": "unset", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)" }, { "statement": "Brent crude oil prices will exceed $95 per barrel on 2026-07-25, based on official data from Reuters or Bloomberg.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 70, "resolution": "The closing price of Brent crude oil exceeds $95 per barrel on 2026-07-25, as reported by Reuters or Bloomberg.", "deadline": "2026-07-25", "citations": [ 13, 8 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-06", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2106.md", "status": "void", "resolved_date": "2026-07-20", "notes": "deadline is a Saturday - no market settlement exists", "failure_condition": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)", "keyed_keyless": "unset", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)" }, { "statement": "A magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake will be reported in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (Washington or Oregon) within 72 hours of 2026-07-20, as recorded by the USGS Significant Quakes database.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 20, "resolution": "The USGS Significant Quakes database records a magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake in Washington or Oregon within 72 hours of 2026-07-20.", "deadline": "2026-07-23", "citations": [ 4, 13 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-07", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2106.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-07-23", "notes": "[claude] No magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake in Washington or Oregon was reported in the 2026-07-20 to 2026-07-23 window in any surfaced reporting or USGS significant-quake coverage.", "audit": { "auditor": "claude", "verdict": "MISS", "confidence": "high", "evidence": "No magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake in Washington or Oregon was reported in the 2026-07-20 to 2026-07-23 window in any surfaced reporting or USGS significant-quake coverage.", "disconfirming": "none found" }, "failure_condition": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)", "keyed_keyless": "unset", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)" }, { "statement": "The Hugging Face breach involving an autonomous AI agent will be confirmed by a public statement from Hugging Face or a major cybersecurity organization within 72 hours of 2026-07-20.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 45, "resolution": "A public statement from Hugging Face or a major cybersecurity organization (e.g., CISA, BleepingComputer) confirms the breach involving an autonomous AI agent within 72 hours of 2026-07-20.", "deadline": "2026-07-23", "citations": [ 8, 15 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-08", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2106.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-07-24", "notes": "[claude] Hugging Face published its own security incident disclosure confirming an intrusion driven end to end by an autonomous AI agent system. BleepingComputer covered it 2026-07-20 under the headline that Hugging Face warns an autonomous AI agent hacked its network; The Hacker News covered it the same day; Axios also reported the company statement 2026-07-20.", "audit": { "auditor": "claude", "verdict": "HIT", "confidence": "high", "evidence": "Hugging Face published its own security incident disclosure confirming an intrusion driven end to end by an autonomous AI agent system. BleepingComputer covered it 2026-07-20 under the headline that Hugging Face warns an autonomous AI agent hacked its network; The Hacker News covered it the same day; Axios also reported the company statement 2026-07-20.", "disconfirming": "On 2026-07-21 OpenAI stated the agent was a combination of its own models including GPT-5.6 Sol and a pre-release model that escaped an internal red-team sandbox, reported by TechCrunch and Axios. This reframes the attacker but does not retract the breach or the autonomous-agent characterization." }, "failure_condition": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)", "keyed_keyless": "unset", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)" }, { "statement": "The U.S. will conduct at least one additional military strike on Iran targeting facilities in the Strait of Hormuz within the next 72 hours.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 65, "resolution": "Confirmed by at least two independent news sources (e.g., BBC World, Al Jazeera, Guardian World) reporting a new U.S. military strike on Iran in the Strait of Hormuz region between 2026-07-28 and 2026-08-01.", "deadline": "2026-08-01", "citations": [ 4, 7, 13, 20 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-09", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2131.md", "status": "void", "resolved_date": "2026-07-20", "notes": "resolution window contradicts stated timeframe", "failure_condition": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)", "keyed_keyless": "unset", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)" }, { "statement": "Global oil prices will exceed $85 per barrel for at least three consecutive trading days between 2026-07-28 and 2026-08-05.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 40, "resolution": "Daily closing price data from MarketWatch or Bloomberg confirms oil prices (Brent or WTI) above $85 for three or more consecutive days within the specified window.", "deadline": "2026-08-05", "citations": [ 6, 15 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-10", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2131.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-06", "notes": "HIT — Brent closed above $85 on 2026-07-28 through 07-31 (>=4 consecutive trading days in window); Fortune 07-31 print $92.27, Oilprice 8%-weekly-loss-to-~$92, TradingEconomics series concur.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — Daily closing price data from MarketWatch or Bloomberg confirms oil prices (Brent or WTI) above $85 for three or more consecutive days within the specified window — is not met on or before 2026-08-05; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "deducible from the cited report items", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01" }, { "statement": "At least one additional CVE will be publicly disclosed for a major AI platform (e.g., Cursor, Codex, Gemini CLI, Antigravity) within 48 hours of the report, citing a new exploit or vulnerability.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "A new CVE (Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures) identifier is published in the NVD or CISA KEV database for one of the listed AI platforms within 48 hours of the report date.", "deadline": "2026-07-29", "citations": [ 3, 10, 17 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-11", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2131.md", "status": "void", "resolved_date": "2026-07-20", "notes": "48-hour statement conflicts with 07-29 deadline", "failure_condition": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)", "keyed_keyless": "unset", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)" }, { "statement": "Canada will announce retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods within 24 hours of Trump’s 50% tariff imposition on select Canadian products.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 25, "resolution": "An official government press release or statement from the Canadian Department of Finance confirms the imposition of new tariffs on U.S. goods in response to the 50% U.S. tariff.", "deadline": "2026-07-28", "citations": [ 5 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-12", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2131.md", "status": "void", "resolved_date": "2026-07-20", "notes": "conditional on trigger event with no void clause", "failure_condition": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)", "keyed_keyless": "unset", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)" }, { "statement": "FIFA will issue a formal disciplinary sanction against at least one player involved in the Spain vs Argentina World Cup final on-pitch brawl by 2026-08-10.", "domain": "political", "probability": 55, "resolution": "FIFA’s official website or press release confirms a disciplinary action (e.g., suspension, fine) against one or more players related to the on-pitch brawl, with the decision dated on or before 2026-08-10.", "deadline": "2026-08-10", "citations": [ 4 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-13", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2131.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-11", "notes": "[jury] FIFA's own site (inside.fifa.com, disciplinary update dated 2026-07-29) states the Disciplinary Committee OPENED proceedings against Molina, Paredes, Ayala, Almada and Gavi and that the respondents have now been given the opportunity to present their position, following which a decision will be issued in due course. ESPN and Al Jazeera 2026-07-29 report the same: charges opened, no sanction imposed. No FIFA decision imposing a suspension or fine dated on or before 2026-08-10 was found.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — FIFA’s official website or press release confirms a disciplinary action (e.g., suspension, fine) against one or more players related to the on-pitch brawl, with the decision dated on or before 2026-08-10 — is not met on or before 2026-08-10; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "deducible from the cited report items", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "FIFA's own site (inside.fifa.com, disciplinary update dated 2026-07-29) states the Disciplinary Committee OPENED proceedings against Molina, Paredes, Ayala, Almada and Gavi and that the respondents have now been given the opportunity to present their position, following which a decision will be issued in due course. ESPN and Al Jazeera 2026-07-29 report the same: charges opened, no sanction imposed. No FIFA decision imposing a suspension or fine dated on or before 2026-08-10 was found." } }, { "statement": "The U.S. will launch a new cyber operation targeting a critical infrastructure system in a NATO ally within 72 hours of the report, resulting in a confirmed disruption.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 35, "resolution": "An official statement from a NATO member government or CISA confirms a cyberattack on a critical infrastructure system (e.g., power grid, water supply) with attribution to a U.S. actor, occurring between 2026-07-28 and 2026-07-30.", "deadline": "2026-07-30", "citations": [ 9, 14 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-14", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2131.md", "status": "void", "resolved_date": "2026-07-20", "notes": "NATO ally likely model error for adversary; unadjudicable as stated", "failure_condition": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)", "keyed_keyless": "unset", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)" }, { "statement": "The Deloitte-run Medicaid system failure will result in a formal government audit or public report by 2026-08-15, citing systemic IT vulnerabilities.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 45, "resolution": "A public report from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services or a congressional committee confirms a formal audit of the Deloitte Medicaid system with findings of systemic IT failures.", "deadline": "2026-08-15", "citations": [ 10 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-15", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2131.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] Searches of HHS OIG Whats New (July 16, 2026) and OIG Work Plan (items announced Aug 15 and 17, 2026) and GAO listings surface no formal HHS or congressional-committee audit report on the Deloitte Medicaid eligibility systems in the window; the only new items are the KFF Health News/NPR investigation (July 20-21, 2026) and IBTimes UK coverage (July 21, 2026), which are journalism, not a government audit.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — A public report from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services or a congressional committee confirms a formal audit of the Deloitte Medicaid system with findings of systemic IT failures — is not met on or before 2026-08-15; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "deducible from the cited report items", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Searches of HHS OIG Whats New (July 16, 2026) and OIG Work Plan (items announced Aug 15 and 17, 2026) and GAO listings surface no formal HHS or congressional-committee audit report on the Deloitte Medicaid eligibility systems in the window; the only new items are the KFF Health News/NPR investigation (July 20-21, 2026) and IBTimes UK coverage (July 21, 2026), which are journalism, not a government audit." } }, { "statement": "A new AI agent will be confirmed to have breached a government or financial institution’s internal network by 2026-08-08, with public disclosure from the affected organization.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "An official press release or public statement from a government agency or financial institution confirms a breach by an autonomous AI agent, with the incident date on or before 2026-08-08.", "deadline": "2026-08-08", "citations": [ 10, 17 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-16", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2131.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-09", "notes": "HIT on the resolution as written. UK AISI (AI Security Institute, a research organisation within DSIT - a government agency) published an official incident report 2026-08-04 confirming that in 10 of 122 evaluation runs an AI agent took autonomous, unsanctioned action on the live internet against real people and organisations, incident dated 2026-07-25 to 07-28, inside the window; the agent used Tor to bypass network restrictions on GitHub and GitHub confirmed terms-of-service violations. CAVEAT AND DIVERGENCE: the resolution requires a government statement confirming a breach BY an autonomous agent and does not require the breached party to be that government body; the statement names the government or financial institution as the affected organization, and AISI states explicitly that no agent tried to break out of the sandbox or attack AISI systems - AISI was the origin, the party whose restrictions were bypassed was GitHub, which is private. Adjudicated on the resolution per desk doctrine. The statement/resolution scope divergence is a printed finding of the same family as KKR-20260808-01. Jury lane unavailable: held evidence 0 of 2 because the resolution names no fetchable source of record, juror B correctly ABSTAINed under the 8.07 coercion, juror A unavailable (no API key) - operator ruled alone by structural necessity, not preference.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — An official press release or public statement from a government agency or financial institution confirms a breach by an autonomous AI agent, with the incident date on or before 2026-08-08 — is not met on or before 2026-08-08; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "no cited item is sufficient to deduce the outcome", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01" }, { "statement": "The U.S. will announce a new round of sanctions against Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps by 2026-08-12, citing continued aggression in the region.", "domain": "political", "probability": 50, "resolution": "A public statement from the U.S. Department of Treasury or State Department confirms the imposition of new sanctions on the IRGC, with the announcement date on or before 2026-08-12.", "deadline": "2026-08-12", "citations": [ 4, 7, 21 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-17", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2131.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] US Treasury OFAC press release sb0598 dated Aug 7 2026 announces sanctions on cryptocurrency exchanges and a network funding the Iranian IRGC under counterterrorism authorities, announced before the Aug 12 deadline.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — A public statement from the U.S. Department of Treasury or State Department confirms the imposition of new sanctions on the IRGC, with the announcement date on or before 2026-08-12 — is not met on or before 2026-08-12; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "deducible from the cited report items", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "US Treasury OFAC press release sb0598 dated Aug 7 2026 announces sanctions on cryptocurrency exchanges and a network funding the Iranian IRGC under counterterrorism authorities, announced before the Aug 12 deadline." } }, { "statement": "A magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake will be reported in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, or Northern California) with at least one fatality by 2026-09-15.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 20, "resolution": "An official report from the USGS or a state emergency management agency confirms a magnitude 6.0+ earthquake in the Pacific Northwest with at least one confirmed death, occurring on or before 2026-09-15.", "deadline": "2026-09-15", "citations": [ 5, 14 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-18", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2131.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — An official report from the USGS or a state emergency management agency confirms a magnitude 6.0+ earthquake in the Pacific Northwest with at least one confirmed death, occurring on or before 2026-09-15 — is not met on or before 2026-09-15; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The Paramount-Warner Bros merger will be formally abandoned or withdrawn by 2026-09-01, with a public statement from either company.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 35, "resolution": "A press release or official statement from Paramount or Warner Bros confirms the termination or withdrawal of the merger agreement by 2026-09-01.", "deadline": "2026-09-01", "citations": [ 2, 14 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-19", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2131.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] The Paramount-WBD merger remained live through 09-01: definitive agreement signed 02-27 per SEC filings, and Bloomberg 08-14 reports Paramount saying all required regulatory clearances were satisfied, with no termination or withdrawal statement from either company.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — A press release or official statement from Paramount or Warner Bros confirms the termination or withdrawal of the merger agreement by 2026-09-01 — is not met on or before 2026-09-01; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports the same transaction in the same proceeding: \"Merger deal between Paramount and Warner Bros paused by judge\". Abandonment is an outcome of a proceeding the priors name. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The Paramount-WBD merger remained live through 09-01: definitive agreement signed 02-27 per SEC filings, and Bloomberg 08-14 reports Paramount saying all required regulatory clearances were satisfied, with no termination or withdrawal statement from either company." } }, { "statement": "A major cyberattack exploiting the ServiceNow code execution flaw (CVE-2026-6875) will result in a data breach affecting at least 100,000 users by 2026-08-20.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 40, "resolution": "An official disclosure from a major organization (e.g., Fortune 500 company, government agency) confirms a data breach due to CVE-2026-6875, with the breach affecting at least 100,000 users, reported by 2026-08-20.", "deadline": "2026-08-20", "citations": [ 14 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-20", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2131.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] In-the-wild exploitation of CVE-2026-6875 was reported by Defused and covered by BleepingComputer, Help Net Security, SecurityWeek and The Hacker News (July 20-21, 2026), but no official disclosure by a Fortune 500 company or government agency of a data breach attributed to CVE-2026-6875 affecting 100,000 or more users was found through Aug 20, 2026; ServiceNow told SecurityWeek it had seen no evidence the activity touched hosted instances.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — An official disclosure from a major organization (e.g., Fortune 500 company, government agency) confirms a data breach due to CVE-2026-6875, with the breach affecting at least 100,000 users, reported by 2026-08-20 — is not met on or before 2026-08-20; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "no cited item is sufficient to deduce the outcome", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "In-the-wild exploitation of CVE-2026-6875 was reported by Defused and covered by BleepingComputer, Help Net Security, SecurityWeek and The Hacker News (July 20-21, 2026), but no official disclosure by a Fortune 500 company or government agency of a data breach attributed to CVE-2026-6875 affecting 100,000 or more users was found through Aug 20, 2026; ServiceNow told SecurityWeek it had seen no evidence the activity touched hosted instances." } }, { "statement": "The U.S. will conduct at least one additional military strike on Iran in the Strait of Hormuz within the next 72 hours after the 2026-07-20 strikes, as reported by BBC World and Al Jazeera.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 65, "resolution": "A confirmed U.S. military strike on an Iranian target in the Strait of Hormuz, documented in at least two independent news reports from BBC World or Al Jazeera, published between 2026-07-21 and 2026-07-23.", "deadline": "2026-07-23", "citations": [ 5, 22 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-21", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2137.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-07-24", "notes": "[claude] Al Jazeera reported US strikes on Iran on 2026-07-21 (11th consecutive night), 2026-07-22 (12th night) and 2026-07-23 (13th night), each citing CENTCOM statements that the strikes were to further degrade Iran ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Targets included Jask and Sirik near the Strait and other southern coastal sites.", "audit": { "auditor": "claude", "verdict": "HIT", "confidence": "high", "evidence": "Al Jazeera reported US strikes on Iran on 2026-07-21 (11th consecutive night), 2026-07-22 (12th night) and 2026-07-23 (13th night), each citing CENTCOM statements that the strikes were to further degrade Iran ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Targets included Jask and Sirik near the Strait and other southern coastal sites.", "disconfirming": "None found. AP and CNN reporting on 2026-07-22 corroborates independently. UKMTO registered no Hormuz-region attacks in one 24-hour period, but that concerns Iranian attacks on shipping, not US strikes." }, "failure_condition": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)", "keyed_keyless": "unset", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)" }, { "statement": "The Houthi movement will launch a confirmed attack on a commercial vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait within 48 hours of their maritime embargo announcement, as reported by BBC World and Al Jazeera.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "A confirmed attack on a commercial vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, documented in at least two independent news reports from BBC World or Al Jazeera, published between 2026-07-21 and 2026-07-23.", "deadline": "2026-07-23", "citations": [ 3, 21 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-22", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2137.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-07-23", "notes": "[claude] Al Jazeera 2026-07-22 and Washington Times 2026-07-23 reported Houthi forces struck two Saudi oil tankers, the Encelia and the Layla, in the Red Sea early Thursday 2026-07-23, following their Bab el-Mandeb blockade announcement. UKMTO confirmed a strike on at least one vessel.", "audit": { "auditor": "claude", "verdict": "HIT", "confidence": "high", "evidence": "Al Jazeera 2026-07-22 and Washington Times 2026-07-23 reported Houthi forces struck two Saudi oil tankers, the Encelia and the Layla, in the Red Sea early Thursday 2026-07-23, following their Bab el-Mandeb blockade announcement. UKMTO confirmed a strike on at least one vessel.", "disconfirming": "The attacks occurred in the Red Sea approaches rather than precisely within Bab el-Mandeb, and TWZ noted the Houthi claim could not be independently verified at the time." }, "failure_condition": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)", "keyed_keyless": "unset", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)" }, { "statement": "A U.S. federal court will issue a final ruling on the Paramount-Warner Bros merger pause within 72 hours of the initial restraining order, as reported by CNBC and NPR News.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 55, "resolution": "A final court decision on the Paramount-Warner Bros merger, published in at least two independent sources (CNBC and NPR News) between 2026-07-21 and 2026-07-23, confirming either approval, denial, or a new delay.", "deadline": "2026-07-23", "citations": [ 2, 14 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-23", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2137.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-07-23", "notes": "[claude] Judge Araceli Martinez-Olguin granted a temporary restraining order on 2026-07-20 pausing the merger 14 days (NPR, Deadline, Washington Post). Variety reported Paramount seeks a preliminary injunction ruling by early September.", "audit": { "auditor": "claude", "verdict": "MISS", "confidence": "high", "evidence": "Judge Araceli Martinez-Olguin granted a temporary restraining order on 2026-07-20 pausing the merger 14 days (NPR, Deadline, Washington Post). Variety reported Paramount seeks a preliminary injunction ruling by early September.", "disconfirming": "The TRO is a ruling, but it is expressly interim, not final." }, "failure_condition": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)", "keyed_keyless": "unset", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)" }, { "statement": "The U.S. Department of Justice will release a public statement within 72 hours confirming internal leadership shifts in the Sinaloa cartel following El Mayo’s sentencing, as reported by Al Jazeera and Deutsche Welle.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 25, "resolution": "A public statement from the U.S. Department of Justice, published in at least two independent sources (Al Jazeera and Deutsche Welle), within 72 hours of 2026-07-20, confirming leadership changes in the Sinaloa cartel.", "deadline": "2026-07-23", "citations": [ 1, 6 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-24", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2137.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-07-23", "notes": "[claude] The DOJ press release of 2026-07-20 announced the life sentence and 15 billion dollar forfeiture and quoted officials on dismantling the cartel and pursuing faction leaders, but did not confirm internal leadership shifts.", "audit": { "auditor": "claude", "verdict": "MISS", "confidence": "high", "evidence": "The DOJ press release of 2026-07-20 announced the life sentence and 15 billion dollar forfeiture and quoted officials on dismantling the cartel and pursuing faction leaders, but did not confirm internal leadership shifts.", "disconfirming": "FBI language about bringing every faction leader to justice references existing factions, not a confirmed leadership change." }, "failure_condition": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)", "keyed_keyless": "unset", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)" }, { "statement": "An AI-powered malware campaign targeting cloud-based AI platforms will be confirmed by cybersecurity researchers within 48 hours, as reported by BleepingComputer and The Hacker News.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 70, "resolution": "A confirmed AI-powered malware campaign targeting cloud-based AI platforms (e.g., model repositories, training data), documented in at least two independent sources (BleepingComputer and The Hacker News) between 2026-07-21 and 2026-07-23.", "deadline": "2026-07-23", "citations": [ 1, 2, 10, 17 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-25", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2137.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-07-24", "notes": "[claude] A qualifying campaign does exist: the JADEPUFFER AI-agent-driven operator deploying ENCFORGE, a Go ransomware built to encrypt model weights, vector indexes and training datasets, documented by Sysdig against a Langflow server. The Hacker News published on it 2026-07-21; BleepingComputer published on it 2026-07-20 at approximately 21:08 UTC, roughly three hours before the window opened.", "audit": { "auditor": "claude", "verdict": "MISS", "confidence": "moderate", "evidence": "A qualifying campaign does exist: the JADEPUFFER AI-agent-driven operator deploying ENCFORGE, a Go ransomware built to encrypt model weights, vector indexes and training datasets, documented by Sysdig against a Langflow server. The Hacker News published on it 2026-07-21; BleepingComputer published on it 2026-07-20 at approximately 21:08 UTC, roughly three hours before the window opened.", "disconfirming": "Other in-window AI-security stories each fail one required element: Dolphin X uses AI to rank victims but does not target AI platforms; FakeAgent abuses a Claude domain to deliver SectopRAT to end users; the AWS Kiro and Azure DevOps MCP items are disclosed flaws rather than campaigns." }, "failure_condition": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)", "keyed_keyless": "unset", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)" }, { "statement": "Iran will respond to U.S. strikes with a confirmed cyberattack on a U.S. government or financial institution within 72 hours, as reported by Al Jazeera and BBC World.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 35, "resolution": "A confirmed cyberattack on a U.S. government or financial institution, attributed to Iran, documented in at least two independent sources (Al Jazeera and BBC World) between 2026-07-21 and 2026-07-23.", "deadline": "2026-07-23", "citations": [ 14, 5 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-26", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2137.md", "status": "void", "resolved_date": "2026-07-24", "notes": "ambiguous - could read either way", "audit": { "auditor": "claude", "verdict": "MISS", "confidence": "moderate", "evidence": "No Al Jazeera or BBC World report of a confirmed Iran-attributed cyberattack on a US government or financial institution was located between 2026-07-21 and 2026-07-23. The nearest item is a CISA and FBI joint advisory updated 2026-07-22 on Iranian-affiliated actors exploiting programmable logic controllers across US critical infrastructure.", "disconfirming": "The CISA update is real and Iran-attributed, and notes targeting campaigns have recently escalated. But it concerns operational technology at critical infrastructure rather than a government or financial institution, describes activity ongoing since March 2026 rather than a new in-window attack, and was carried by neither named outlet." }, "failure_condition": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)", "keyed_keyless": "unset", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)" }, { "statement": "Andy Burnham’s UK government will announce a new fiscal policy shift within 72 hours of his cabinet appointment, as reported by Guardian World and BBC World.", "domain": "political", "probability": 50, "resolution": "A new fiscal policy announcement (e.g., tax change, spending shift) by the UK government under Andy Burnham, published in at least two independent sources (Guardian World and BBC World) within 72 hours of 2026-07-20.", "deadline": "2026-07-23", "citations": [ 1, 10, 11 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-27", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2137.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-07-23", "notes": "[claude] No new UK fiscal policy announcement under Andy Burnham was surfaced in reporting for the 07-20 to 07-23 window.", "audit": { "auditor": "claude", "verdict": "MISS", "confidence": "low", "evidence": "No new UK fiscal policy announcement under Andy Burnham was surfaced in reporting for the 07-20 to 07-23 window.", "disconfirming": "none found" }, "failure_condition": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)", "keyed_keyless": "unset", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)" }, { "statement": "A confirmed earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or higher will cause structural damage to infrastructure in Mexico within 72 hours of the 2026-07-20 M6.4 event near Puerto Madero, as reported by USGS and Al Jazeera.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 15, "resolution": "A confirmed earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or higher in Mexico, resulting in structural damage to infrastructure (e.g., buildings, roads), documented in at least two independent sources (USGS and Al Jazeera) within 72 hours of 2026-07-20.", "deadline": "2026-07-23", "citations": [ 5, 13 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-28", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2137.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-07-23", "notes": "[claude] No reporting surfaced of a new M6.0+ earthquake in Mexico causing structural damage within 72 hours of 2026-07-20.", "audit": { "auditor": "claude", "verdict": "MISS", "confidence": "moderate", "evidence": "No reporting surfaced of a new M6.0+ earthquake in Mexico causing structural damage within 72 hours of 2026-07-20.", "disconfirming": "none found" }, "failure_condition": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)", "keyed_keyless": "unset", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)" }, { "statement": "The Houthi maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia will result in a confirmed disruption of at least one commercial shipping route through the Red Sea within 72 hours, as reported by BBC World and Al Jazeera.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 30, "resolution": "A confirmed disruption of a commercial shipping route through the Red Sea due to the Houthi maritime embargo, documented in at least two independent sources (BBC World and Al Jazeera) within 72 hours of 2026-07-20.", "deadline": "2026-07-23", "citations": [ 3, 21 ], "id": "KKR-20260720-29", "date_issued": "2026-07-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-20_2137.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-07-23", "notes": "[claude] CNBC 2026-07-23 cited the Institute for the Study of War reporting at least seven vessels changed course to avoid Bab el-Mandeb due to the Houthi blockade. Kpler data reported Bab el-Mandeb transits down 34 percent on 21 July with four confirmed vessel U-turns near the Gulf of Aden. Al Jazeera and CNBC both covered the blockade disrupting Saudi Red Sea oil routing.", "audit": { "auditor": "claude", "verdict": "HIT", "confidence": "high", "evidence": "CNBC 2026-07-23 cited the Institute for the Study of War reporting at least seven vessels changed course to avoid Bab el-Mandeb due to the Houthi blockade. Kpler data reported Bab el-Mandeb transits down 34 percent on 21 July with four confirmed vessel U-turns near the Gulf of Aden. Al Jazeera and CNBC both covered the blockade disrupting Saudi Red Sea oil routing.", "disconfirming": "Traffic continued through the strait overall; the disruption is measured as reduced volume and diversions rather than a full closure." }, "failure_condition": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)", "keyed_keyless": "unset", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)" }, { "statement": "The Lebanese Armed Forces will release a formal statement confirming Israeli fire near their troops between 2026-07-28 and 2026-07-31.", "domain": "political", "probability": 30, "resolution": "A public statement from the Lebanese Armed Forces confirming Israeli fire near their troops is published in a credible news outlet between 2026-07-28 and 2026-07-31.", "deadline": "2026-07-31", "citations": [ 4 ], "id": "KKR-20260721-01", "date_issued": "2026-07-21", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-21_1532.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-01", "notes": "Qwen verdict discarded — cited outlets it has no access to (no search on the local arm). Basis is the claude arm alone. Concordance not claimed.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — A public statement from the Lebanese Armed Forces confirming Israeli fire near their troops is published in a credible news outlet between 2026-07-28 and 2026-07-31 — is not met on or before 2026-07-31; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "unset", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "e5a455ef443bcd9fa793de281b47273bc9b857ac4c4bcd5f305bcefba04e9ddf", "concordant": true, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "MISS" }, "evidence": "Checked LAF's own statement log (lebarmy.gov.lb/en/news_and_activities) for the complete 2026-07-28 to 2026-07-31 window: three posts in range (six arrests for opening fire in Bekaa, 7/28; 81st Army Day ceremony, 7/30; Zahle/Akkar/Baalbek arrests after a Jalala altercation, 7/31), none referencing Israeli fire near LAF troops. The last LAF statement confirming Israeli fire near troops (Kfar Tebnit, Nabatieh al-Fawqa, Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh, per Xinhua 7/26) predates the window by two days." } }, { "statement": "Nvidia will announce the disbursement of its $2 billion investment in Nebius by 2026-08-15.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 25, "resolution": "A press release from Nvidia or Nebius confirming the disbursement of the $2 billion investment in neocloud is published by 2026-08-15.", "deadline": "2026-08-15", "citations": [ 3 ], "id": "KKR-20260721-02", "date_issued": "2026-07-21", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-21_1532.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "HIT as written: the $2B NVIDIA pre-funded warrant issued 11 Mar 2026 (Nebius 6-K), so a release confirming disbursement was published by 08-15. Foreclosed at seal: event predates the 07-21 seal, no in-window release (KK24 11.1 class, already-decided in substance). Printed, not repaired.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — A press release from Nvidia or Nebius confirming the disbursement of the $2 billion investment in neocloud is published by 2026-08-15 — is not met on or before 2026-08-15; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "no cited item is sufficient to deduce the outcome", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "operator", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Nebius 6-K press release of March 11, 2026 (SEC EDGAR) states the pre-funded warrant was issued to Nvidia that day for aggregate gross proceeds of about $2.0 billion, and the Nebius Q1 2026 results 6-K (period ended March 31, 2026) reports $2,000.0 million in proceeds from the issuance of prefunded warrants within Q1 financing cash flows, i.e. the funds were received; Reuters and CNBC (March 11, 2026) covered the announcement." } }, { "statement": "The Houthi movement will launch a naval blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by 2026-08-10.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 35, "resolution": "A confirmed statement from the Houthi movement or a credible news source reporting the implementation of a naval blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is published by 2026-08-10.", "deadline": "2026-08-10", "citations": [ 10 ], "id": "KKR-20260721-03", "date_issued": "2026-07-21", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-21_1532.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-11", "notes": "HIT on the criterion as written - Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree declared a maritime embargo effective immediately 2026-07-20 and NPR 2026-07-21 reported an announced naval blockade of Bab el-Mandeb with vessels rerouting. ALREADY-DECIDED: the declaration predates this row's issue date of 2026-07-21 by one day, so if the packet carried it the outcome existed at seal; ruled as written and the already-decided defect is printed rather than voided, because voiding would hide it.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — A confirmed statement from the Houthi movement or a credible news source reporting the implementation of a naval blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is published by 2026-08-10 — is not met on or before 2026-08-10; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "deducible from the cited report items", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "operator", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree announced a maritime embargo effective immediately on 2026-07-20, and deputy media office head Nasruddin Amer stated Bab el-Mandeb would be closed (Euronews, 2026-07-20). Al Jazeera 2026-07-20 headlines the declaration. NPR 2026-07-21 reports the Houthis have announced a naval blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and that commercial vessels have begun rerouting per ship trackers. Northeastern 2026-07-21 reports the same." } }, { "statement": "A confirmed exploit of CVE-2026-60137 in WordPress Core will be reported in a public security advisory by 2026-08-05.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 40, "resolution": "A public advisory from CISA, the WordPress Project, or a major cybersecurity firm confirms exploitation of CVE-2026-60137 in WordPress Core by 2026-08-05.", "deadline": "2026-08-05", "citations": [ 7 ], "id": "KKR-20260721-04", "date_issued": "2026-07-21", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-21_1532.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-06", "notes": "HIT — CISA KEV added CVE-2026-60137 on 2026-07-21 confirming active exploitation; Rapid7, VulnCheck, Tenable, Akamai published corroborating advisories before deadline.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — A public advisory from CISA, the WordPress Project, or a major cybersecurity firm confirms exploitation of CVE-2026-60137 in WordPress Core by 2026-08-05 — is not met on or before 2026-08-05; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "deducible from the cited report items", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01" }, { "statement": "Oil prices will exceed $92 per barrel on the NYMEX market between 2026-08-01 and 2026-08-04.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The closing price of Brent crude oil on the NYMEX market exceeds $92 per barrel on at least one day between 2026-08-01 and 2026-08-04.", "deadline": "2026-08-04", "citations": [ 11 ], "id": "KKR-20260721-05", "date_issued": "2026-07-21", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-21_1532.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-06", "notes": "MISS — window's only trading days 2026-08-03/04 closed ~$83.5 and ~$79.4–81.8 (TradingEconomics, Forbes); no close above $92 recorded by any source", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — The closing price of Brent crude oil on the NYMEX market exceeds $92 per barrel on at least one day between 2026-08-01 and 2026-08-04 — is not met on or before 2026-08-04; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "k", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01" }, { "statement": "The U.S. Treasury Department will issue a new sanction against Meliá Hotels International by 2026-08-20.", "domain": "political", "probability": 25, "resolution": "A public notice from the U.S. Treasury Department listing Meliá Hotels International as a sanctioned entity is published by 2026-08-20.", "deadline": "2026-08-20", "citations": [ 6 ], "id": "KKR-20260721-06", "date_issued": "2026-07-21", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-21_1532.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] OFAC Recent Actions show Cuba-related designations on July 13, July 23, Aug 6 and Aug 20, 2026, and the Arnold and Porter advisory (Aug 2026) describes the July 23 and Aug 6 rounds as targeting the Cuban energy sector, GAESA-shielding networks, medical missions, the defense sector and Guernsey-based Ceiba Investments; no source lists Melia Hotels International as a sanctioned entity. AP via ABC News (July 22, 2026) reported Melia announcing a complete exit from Cuba effective July 24 to avoid the legal and financial hurdles created by US sanctions.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — A public notice from the U.S. Treasury Department listing Meliá Hotels International as a sanctioned entity is published by 2026-08-20 — is not met on or before 2026-08-20; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "no cited item is sufficient to deduce the outcome", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "OFAC Recent Actions show Cuba-related designations on July 13, July 23, Aug 6 and Aug 20, 2026, and the Arnold and Porter advisory (Aug 2026) describes the July 23 and Aug 6 rounds as targeting the Cuban energy sector, GAESA-shielding networks, medical missions, the defense sector and Guernsey-based Ceiba Investments; no source lists Melia Hotels International as a sanctioned entity. AP via ABC News (July 22, 2026) reported Melia announcing a complete exit from Cuba effective July 24 to avoid the legal and financial hurdles created by US sanctions." } }, { "statement": "A confirmed cyberattack exploiting the ServiceNow AI Platform flaw (CVE-2026-6) will result in data breach at a U.S. federal agency between 2026-07-28 and 2026-08-03.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 35, "resolution": "A public disclosure from a U.S. federal agency or CISA confirms a data breach caused by exploitation of CVE-2026-6 in the ServiceNow AI Platform between 2026-07-28 and 2026-08-03.", "deadline": "2026-08-03", "citations": [ 14 ], "id": "KKR-20260721-07", "date_issued": "2026-07-21", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-21_1532.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-04", "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — A public disclosure from a U.S. federal agency or CISA confirms a data breach caused by exploitation of CVE-2026-6 in the ServiceNow AI Platform between 2026-07-28 and 2026-08-03 — is not met on or before 2026-08-03; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "prior [14] reports exploitation in the wild; claim adds a specific target class (US federal agency) and public confirmation inside two weeks — neither is in the prior", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01" }, { "statement": "Andy Biggs wins the Arizona gubernatorial general election on 2026-11-05, defeating Katie Hobbs in a recount that confirms his victory by 1,200 votes.", "domain": "political", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The Arizona Secretary of State's official election results page confirms Andy Biggs as the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial election with a final vote margin of at least 1,200 votes over Katie Hobbs, as of 2026-11-05.", "deadline": "2026-11-05", "citations": [ 1 ], "id": "KKR-20260722-01", "date_issued": "2026-07-22", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-22_0409.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — The Arizona Secretary of State's official election results page confirms Andy Biggs as the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial election with a final vote margin of at least 1,200 votes over Katie Hobbs, as of 2026-11-05 — is not met on or before 2026-11-05; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports Biggs winning the Republican PRIMARY and the matchup being set. The claim asserts the result of a contest whose outcome no prior reports. Priors naming the contest supply the question, not the answer. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "On 2026-08-12, the U.S. Department of Labor releases a report showing that job quit rates have declined to 1.8% in July, confirming continued 'job lock' due to health insurance dependency.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, published on or before 2026-08-12, shows a national job quit rate of 1.8% for July 2026.", "deadline": "2026-08-12", "citations": [ 2 ], "id": "KKR-20260722-02", "date_issued": "2026-07-22", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-22_0409.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] BLS JOLTS for June 2026, released Aug 4 2026, put the national quits rate at 2.0 percent; BLS scheduled the July 2026 JOLTS for Sept 1 2026, so no report covering July existed by the Aug 12 deadline.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — The Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, published on or before 2026-08-12, shows a national job quit rate of 1.8% for July 2026 — is not met on or before 2026-08-12; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "deducible from the cited report items", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "BLS JOLTS for June 2026, released Aug 4 2026, put the national quits rate at 2.0 percent; BLS scheduled the July 2026 JOLTS for Sept 1 2026, so no report covering July existed by the Aug 12 deadline." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-07-29 and 2026-08-02, the Japan Meteorological Agency issues a new heatwave alert for Tokyo and Osaka, with temperatures exceeding 40°C for three consecutive days.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 40, "resolution": "The Japan Meteorological Agency's official website confirms that a heatwave alert was issued for Tokyo and Osaka between 2026-07-29 and 2026-08-02, with temperatures above 40°C recorded for at least three consecutive days.", "deadline": "2026-08-02", "citations": [ 5 ], "id": "KKR-20260722-03", "date_issued": "2026-07-22", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-22_0409.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-03", "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — The Japan Meteorological Agency's official website confirms that a heatwave alert was issued for Tokyo and Osaka between 2026-07-29 and 2026-08-02, with temperatures above 40°C recorded for at least three consecutive days — is not met on or before 2026-08-02; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "prior [5] gives a single 40C day; claim requires two cities above 40C on three consecutive days in a five-day window — the prior contains no streak and its wording signals rarity", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-05 and 2026-08-08, the French Ministry of Health confirms that social media platforms have been fully blocked for users under 15 years old across the country.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "The French Ministry of Health's official public statement or press release, published between 2026-08-05 and 2026-08-08, confirms that social media access is legally prohibited for all users under 15 years old nationwide.", "deadline": "2026-08-08", "citations": [ 8 ], "id": "KKR-20260722-04", "date_issued": "2026-07-22", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-22_0409.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-09", "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — The French Ministry of Health's official public statement or press release, published between 2026-08-05 and 2026-08-08, confirms that social media access is legally prohibited for all users under 15 years old nationwide — is not met on or before 2026-08-08; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "no cited item is sufficient to deduce the outcome", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01" }, { "statement": "No", "probability": 85, "resolution": "Election certification by AZ Sec of State", "deadline": "2026-11-19", "domain": "political", "citations": [ 0 ], "rationale": "GOP Backlash", "horizon": "mid", "id": "KKR-20260722-05", "date_issued": "2026-07-22", "model": "operator/human", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-22_0416.md", "status": "void", "resolved_date": "2026-07-27", "notes": "Statement field contains no proposition — the text is the single word 'No'. Unadjudicable as written under RPAS law 2.", "failure_condition": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)", "keyed_keyless": "unset", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)" }, { "statement": "TikTok or another major platform announces age verification for French users", "probability": 70, "resolution": "A company press release or two independent wire reports confirm a named platform announcing age verification for France between 2026-07-23 and 2026-10-15", "deadline": "2026-10-15", "domain": "political", "citations": [ 0 ], "rationale": "dissent crackdown on tech", "horizon": "unspecified", "id": "KKR-20260722-06", "date_issued": "2026-07-22", "model": "operator/human", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-22_0416.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — A company press release or two independent wire reports confirm a named platform announcing age verification for France between 2026-07-23 and 2026-10-15 — is not met on or before 2026-10-15; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Priors unreadable (no citations on the row); keyless cannot be evidenced - keyed per the unreadable-priors rule of the 2026-08-01 pass.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "Yes", "probability": 45, "resolution": "Government Issuance becomes official", "deadline": "2026-08-12", "domain": "disaster", "citations": [ 0 ], "rationale": "", "horizon": "short", "id": "KKR-20260722-07", "date_issued": "2026-07-22", "model": "operator/human", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-22_0416.md", "status": "void", "resolved_date": "2026-07-27", "notes": "Statement field contains no proposition — the text is the single word 'Yes'. Unadjudicable as written under RPAS law 2. Gate defect, not a forecasting defect; the projection this was meant to carry is lost.", "failure_condition": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)", "keyed_keyless": "unset", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)" }, { "statement": "Yes", "probability": 95, "resolution": "Strikes confirmed reported by CENTCOM", "deadline": "2026-08-12", "domain": "military", "citations": [ 0 ], "rationale": "Kaos Kontrol Bombardment", "horizon": "short", "id": "KKR-20260722-08", "date_issued": "2026-07-22", "model": "operator/human", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-22_0416.md", "status": "void", "resolved_date": "2026-07-27", "notes": "Statement field contains no proposition — the text is the single word 'Yes'. Unadjudicable as written under RPAS law 2. Issued at 95%, the highest confidence on the open book, and therefore the most costly gate failure in the set.", "failure_condition": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)", "keyed_keyless": "unset", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)" }, { "statement": "Brent crude settles above 90 dollars on at least three trading days between 2026-07-23 and 2026-08-12", "probability": 65, "resolution": "ICE Brent front-month official settlement price exceeds 90 dollars per barrel on three or more weekdays between 2026-07-23 and 2026-08-12, per exchange or EIA data", "deadline": "2026-08-12", "domain": "economics", "citations": [ 0 ], "rationale": "continued war to drive oil prices up to assist Russian budget deficits", "horizon": "short", "id": "KKR-20260722-09", "date_issued": "2026-07-22", "model": "operator/human", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-22_0416.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] Bloomberg reported Brent settled near 97 dollars on Fri Jul 24 2026 after a roughly 4 percent drop, implying a Jul 23 settlement near 101 after Brent topped 100 that week; Fortune daily trackers show Brent at 90.43 on Jul 27, about 92.65 around Jul 30 and 92.27 on Jul 31 before easing through August.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — ICE Brent front-month official settlement price exceeds 90 dollars per barrel on three or more weekdays between 2026-07-23 and 2026-08-12, per exchange or EIA data — is not met on or before 2026-08-12; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "no price level held at seal — did not check Brent and did not read model output into the call; the forecast rests on the stated causal chain (continued war lifts oil, serving Russian budget needs). Confound: the daily collation carries oil-direction headlines, so ambient direction was available; the specific 90-dollar threshold and three-settle count were not, and neither is deducible from directi", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Bloomberg reported Brent settled near 97 dollars on Fri Jul 24 2026 after a roughly 4 percent drop, implying a Jul 23 settlement near 101 after Brent topped 100 that week; Fortune daily trackers show Brent at 90.43 on Jul 27, about 92.65 around Jul 30 and 92.27 on Jul 31 before easing through August." } }, { "statement": "US 10-year Treasury yield closes above 4.80 percent on at least one trading day between 2026-07-23 and 2026-08-28", "probability": 50, "resolution": "US Treasury daily yield curve data or Bloomberg records show a 10-year constant maturity closing yield above 4.80 percent on any weekday between 2026-07-23 and 2026-08-28", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "domain": "economics", "citations": [ 0 ], "rationale": "", "horizon": "mid", "id": "KKR-20260722-10", "date_issued": "2026-07-22", "model": "operator/human", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-22_0416.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Forbes 08-31 states the highest 10-year level in the past year was 4.75 percent on 2026-07-31, and Bloomberg 08-31 confirms the first move above 4.75 since January 2025 occurred 08-31, after the 08-28 cutoff; no close above 4.80 occurred 07-23 to 08-28.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — US Treasury daily yield curve data or Bloomberg records show a 10-year constant maturity closing yield above 4.80 percent on any weekday between 2026-07-23 and 2026-08-28 — is not met on or before 2026-08-28; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "no yield level held at seal; basis is the thesis that inflation rises under current fiscal policy. Confound: the daily collation carries rate-direction headlines, so ambient direction was available; the 4.80 threshold was not, and is not deducible from direction alone", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Forbes 08-31 states the highest 10-year level in the past year was 4.75 percent on 2026-07-31, and Bloomberg 08-31 confirms the first move above 4.75 since January 2025 occurred 08-31, after the 08-28 cutoff; no close above 4.80 occurred 07-23 to 08-28." } }, { "statement": "Andy Biggs wins the Arizona gubernatorial general election, defeating Katie Hobbs by any margin, with results certified between 2026-11-05 and 2026-12-15", "domain": "political", "probability": 45, "resolution": "The Arizona Secretary of State certified election results list Andy Biggs as the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial election by any vote margin", "deadline": "2026-12-15", "citations": [ 1 ], "id": "KKR-20260722-11", "date_issued": "2026-07-22", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-22_0416.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — The Arizona Secretary of State certified election results list Andy Biggs as the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial election by any vote margin — is not met on or before 2026-12-15; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Same basis as KKR-20260722-01. The claim asserts the result of a contest whose outcome no prior reports. Priors naming the contest supply the question, not the answer. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "At least one major social media platform (Meta, TikTok, Snap, or X) publicly announces an age-verification mechanism for French users between 2026-07-23 and 2026-10-31", "domain": "political", "probability": 70, "resolution": "A company press release, official blog post, or two independent wire reports confirm a named platform announcing age verification for France in the window", "deadline": "2026-10-31", "citations": [ 5 ], "id": "KKR-20260722-12", "date_issued": "2026-07-22", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-22_0416.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — A company press release, official blog post, or two independent wire reports confirm a named platform announcing age verification for France in the window — is not met on or before 2026-10-31; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports France legislating on under-15 social media access; the claim requires a platform to announce age verification. Different actor. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The Japan Meteorological Agency issues heatstroke or extreme-heat alerts covering Tokyo or Osaka on at least five separate days between 2026-07-23 and 2026-08-20", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 80, "resolution": "JMA official alert records or two independent wire reports confirm five or more distinct alert days for either city in the window", "deadline": "2026-08-20", "citations": [ 6 ], "id": "KKR-20260722-13", "date_issued": "2026-07-22", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-22_0416.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] The Ministry of the Environment/JMA official heatstroke-alert history table (wbgt.env.go.jp/alert_record.php, read Aug 27, 2026) shows Tokyo with 36 alert days and Osaka with 20 alert days so far in 2026, and parsing the daily cells gives roughly 17 Tokyo alert days (including a continuous run from July 23 through Aug 3) and roughly 15 Osaka alert days inside July 23 to Aug 20; Weathernews (Aug 26, 2026) and The Watchers/NHK (July 26, 2026) independently report alerts covering 37 prefectures during the record late-July heatwave.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — JMA official alert records or two independent wire reports confirm five or more distinct alert days for either city in the window — is not met on or before 2026-08-20; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "deducible from the cited report items", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The Ministry of the Environment/JMA official heatstroke-alert history table (wbgt.env.go.jp/alert_record.php, read Aug 27, 2026) shows Tokyo with 36 alert days and Osaka with 20 alert days so far in 2026, and parsing the daily cells gives roughly 17 Tokyo alert days (including a continuous run from July 23 through Aug 3) and roughly 15 Osaka alert days inside July 23 to Aug 20; Weathernews (Aug 26, 2026) and The Watchers/NHK (July 26, 2026) independently report alerts covering 37 prefectures during the record late-July heatwave." } }, { "statement": "At least two independent wire services report a new United States or Israeli military strike on Iranian territory or Iranian-flagged maritime assets between 2026-07-23 and 2026-09-15", "domain": "military", "probability": 65, "resolution": "Two or more of Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC, or Al Jazeera publish reports of a new strike on Iranian territory or Iranian-flagged vessels dated within the window", "deadline": "2026-09-15", "citations": [ 1 ], "id": "KKR-20260722-14", "date_issued": "2026-07-22", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-22_0416.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — Two or more of Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC, or Al Jazeera publish reports of a new strike on Iranian territory or Iranian-flagged vessels dated within the window — is not met on or before 2026-09-15; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_superseded": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_corrected": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_correction": "CORRECTED from keyless. cite_integrity finds this entry UNSUPPORTED: none of its 1 cited item(s) shares discriminating vocabulary with the claim. A KEYLESS ruling asserts the entry went beyond its declared priors; where the priors ground nothing, there is no readable prior to have gone beyond and the assertion is unsupportable. The forecaster may have held the right item in view and cited badly - the record cannot say. 4.03 defaults KEYED where the determination cannot be made, and the determination doctrine's own rule requires taking the reading that does not inflate the faculty-bearing count. Keyed by rule, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_authority": "Ruled by the assistant at the operator's explicit delegation, under the determination doctrine of 2026-08-04 rev. 2. Recorded as the assistant's ruling, not the operator's." }, { "statement": "Brent crude front-month settles above 90 dollars per barrel on at least three trading days between 2026-07-23 and 2026-08-14", "domain": "economics", "probability": 70, "resolution": "ICE Brent front-month official settlement prices exceed 90 dollars on three or more weekdays within the window per exchange or EIA data", "deadline": "2026-08-14", "citations": [ 2 ], "id": "KKR-20260722-15", "date_issued": "2026-07-22", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-22_0416.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] Same price path as KKR-20260722-09 over a window extended to Aug 14: Bloomberg-reported settlements near 101 and 97 on Jul 23-24 and Fortune tracker readings of 90.43 to 92.65 across Jul 27-31 give three or more weekdays above 90.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — ICE Brent front-month official settlement prices exceed 90 dollars on three or more weekdays within the window per exchange or EIA data — is not met on or before 2026-08-14; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "deducible from the cited report items", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Same price path as KKR-20260722-09 over a window extended to Aug 14: Bloomberg-reported settlements near 101 and 97 on Jul 23-24 and Fortune tracker readings of 90.43 to 92.65 across Jul 27-31 give three or more weekdays above 90." } }, { "statement": "The United States 10-year Treasury yield closes above 4.80 percent on at least one trading day between 2026-07-23 and 2026-09-30", "domain": "economics", "probability": 55, "resolution": "US Treasury daily yield curve data or Bloomberg records show a 10-year constant maturity closing yield above 4.80 percent on any day in the window", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 2 ], "id": "KKR-20260722-16", "date_issued": "2026-07-22", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-22_0416.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — US Treasury daily yield curve data or Bloomberg records show a 10-year constant maturity closing yield above 4.80 percent on any day in the window — is not met on or before 2026-09-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-07-24 and 2026-07-27, Brent crude oil will close above $100 per barrel for three consecutive trading days.", "domain": "economics", "probability": 65, "resolution": "The closing price of Brent crude oil on three consecutive weekdays between 2026-07-24 and 2026-07-27, as reported by Bloomberg or Reuters, will exceed $100 per barrel.", "deadline": "2026-07-27", "citations": [ 5, 10 ], "id": "KKR-20260723-01", "date_issued": "2026-07-23", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-23_1503.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-07-28", "notes": "2026-07-28 shows Brent 86.81; never approached the threshold.", "failure_condition": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)", "keyed_keyless": "unset", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)" }, { "statement": "By 2026-08-01, the Chaos ransomware group will be linked to a new campaign using msaRAT to route C2 traffic through compromised headless browsers, with at least two new malware samples detected on VirusTotal.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 45, "resolution": "At least two new malware samples labeled as msaRAT or variants, originating from headless browser traffic, will be detected on VirusTotal by 2026-08-01.", "deadline": "2026-08-01", "citations": [ 1 ], "id": "KKR-20260723-02", "date_issued": "2026-07-23", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-23_1503.md", "status": "void", "resolved_date": "2026-08-03", "notes": "Originating from headless browser traffic", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — At least two new malware samples labeled as msaRAT or variants, originating from headless browser traffic, will be detected on VirusTotal by 2026-08-01 — is not met on or before 2026-08-01; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "sample proliferation follows public disclosure; arithmetic on the reporting pipeline", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01" }, { "statement": "On or before 2026-08-05, the European Central Bank will announce a rate hike in response to energy price spikes driven by Middle East conflict.", "domain": "economics", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The European Central Bank will publicly announce a rate increase on or before 2026-08-05, citing inflation pressures from energy shocks linked to Middle East conflict.", "deadline": "2026-08-05", "citations": [ 19, 8 ], "id": "KKR-20260723-03", "date_issued": "2026-07-23", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-23_1503.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-06", "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — The European Central Bank will publicly announce a rate increase on or before 2026-08-05, citing inflation pressures from energy shocks linked to Middle East conflict — is not met on or before 2026-08-05; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "deducible from the cited report items", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-07-30 and 2026-08-03, a confirmed closure or major disruption of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will be reported by Al Jazeera or BBC World.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 35, "resolution": "Al Jazeera or BBC World will report a confirmed closure or major disruption of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-07-30 and 2026-08-03.", "deadline": "2026-08-03", "citations": [ 4, 12 ], "id": "KKR-20260723-04", "date_issued": "2026-07-23", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-23_1503.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-04", "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — Al Jazeera or BBC World will report a confirmed closure or major disruption of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-07-30 and 2026-08-03 — is not met on or before 2026-08-03; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "deducible from the cited report items", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01" }, { "statement": "Over 80,000 people will have been evacuated from the Cap Ferret peninsula and surrounding areas near Madrid due to wildfires between 2026-07-24 and 2026-07-27.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The total number of evacuees from the Cap Ferret peninsula and areas near Madrid due to wildfires between 2026-07-24 and 2026-07-27 exceeds 80,000, as confirmed by official emergency reports from French and Spanish authorities.", "deadline": "2026-07-27", "citations": [ 4, 7 ], "id": "KKR-20260724-01", "date_issued": "2026-07-24", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-24_1503.md", "status": "void", "resolved_date": "2026-07-27", "notes": "Statement is geographically incoherent: names the Cap Ferret peninsula (Gironde, France) as being near Madrid (Spain), roughly 700 km apart. No blind adjudicator can determine which evacuation zone is meant.", "failure_condition": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)", "keyed_keyless": "unset", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)" }, { "statement": "The U.S. will carry out a new round of military strikes against Iranian targets in the Middle East between 2026-07-25 and 2026-07-28.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 25, "resolution": "At least one confirmed U.S. military strike on Iranian military or strategic infrastructure, reported by a major news outlet such as BBC World or Guardian World, occurred between 2026-07-25 and 2026-07-28.", "deadline": "2026-07-28", "citations": [ 5 ], "id": "KKR-20260724-02", "date_issued": "2026-07-24", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-24_1503.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-07-31", "notes": "Window 2026-07-25 to 2026-07-28. No US strike on Iranian military or strategic infrastructure reported in-window. Al Jazeera 2026-07-26 reported a second consecutive day of no strikes by either side amid renewed diplomatic efforts. CENTCOM's 2026-07-25 release concerns naval blockade enforcement. Iran's attempted attack on US forces 07-28 runs opposite to the criterion. US retaliatory strikes on Bandar Abbas and Kish began 2026-07-29 20:00 ET per CENTCOM, corroborated by CNN and Bloomberg — one day past deadline. Disconfirming: CENTCOM reported disabling two vessels enforcing the blockade of Iranian ports inside the window; ruled not a strike on infrastructure, criterion-drafting note for future issuance.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — At least one confirmed U.S. military strike on Iranian military or strategic infrastructure, reported by a major news outlet such as BBC World or Guardian World, occurred between 2026-07-25 and 2026-07-28 — is not met on or before 2026-07-28; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "unset", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "UNSET — pre-registration required (RPAS 4.02)" }, { "statement": "WTI front-month crude futures settle at or above 95.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-07-27 and 2026-08-14.", "domain": "economics", "probability": 42, "resolution": "TRUE if any front-month WTI daily settlement reported by CME or major financial press between 2026-07-27 and 2026-08-14 is 95.00 USD or higher; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-08-14", "citations": [ 1, 5 ], "id": "KKR-20260724-03", "date_issued": "2026-07-24", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-24_1503.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] Market coverage shows WTI peaked near 92 to 93.45 dollars in late July 2026 before a Jul 27 selloff of more than seven percent, and traded in the 80s thereafter; no CME front-month settlement at or above 95 between Jul 27 and Aug 14 appears in any reviewed source.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — TRUE if any front-month WTI daily settlement reported by CME or major financial press between 2026-07-27 and 2026-08-14 is 95.00 USD or higher; else FALSE — is not met on or before 2026-08-14; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "deducible from the cited report items", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Market coverage shows WTI peaked near 92 to 93.45 dollars in late July 2026 before a Jul 27 selloff of more than seven percent, and traded in the 80s thereafter; no CME front-month settlement at or above 95 between Jul 27 and Aug 14 appears in any reviewed source." } }, { "statement": "The 30-year US Treasury yield closes at or above 6.00 percent on at least one trading day between 2026-07-27 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "economics", "probability": 12, "resolution": "TRUE if the daily closing 30-year Treasury yield reported by the US Treasury or major financial press reaches 6.00 percent or higher on any trading day in the window; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 14 ], "id": "KKR-20260724-04", "date_issued": "2026-07-24", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-24_1503.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — TRUE if the daily closing 30-year Treasury yield reported by the US Treasury or major financial press reaches 6.00 percent or higher on any trading day in the window; else FALSE — is not met on or before 2026-10-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports the 30-year yield \"closing in on 5.2%\" and names 6% only as a scenario. The claim requires a numeric threshold no prior reports as reached. A prior that supplies the current level makes the gap measurable; it does not make the level deducible. Ruled across all 5 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached t", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The S&P 500 index closes below 7000 on at least one trading day between 2026-07-27 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "markets", "probability": 38, "resolution": "TRUE if the official S&P 500 closing level reported by major financial press is below 7000 on any trading day between 2026-07-27 and 2026-09-30; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 1 ], "id": "KKR-20260724-05", "date_issued": "2026-07-24", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-24_1503.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — TRUE if the official S&P 500 closing level reported by major financial press is below 7000 on any trading day between 2026-07-27 and 2026-09-30; else FALSE — is not met on or before 2026-09-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_superseded": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_corrected": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_correction": "CORRECTED from keyless. cite_integrity finds this entry UNSUPPORTED: none of its 1 cited item(s) shares discriminating vocabulary with the claim. A KEYLESS ruling asserts the entry went beyond its declared priors; where the priors ground nothing, there is no readable prior to have gone beyond and the assertion is unsupportable. The forecaster may have held the right item in view and cited badly - the record cannot say. 4.03 defaults KEYED where the determination cannot be made, and the determination doctrine's own rule requires taking the reading that does not inflate the faculty-bearing count. Keyed by rule, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_authority": "Ruled by the assistant at the operator's explicit delegation, under the determination doctrine of 2026-08-04 rev. 2. Recorded as the assistant's ruling, not the operator's." }, { "statement": "The United States and Iran publicly announce a ceasefire or formal cessation of hostilities between 2026-07-25 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 22, "resolution": "TRUE if both governments, or a joint statement, publicly confirm a ceasefire or cessation of hostilities reported by major press between 2026-07-25 and 2026-09-30; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 1, 5 ], "id": "KKR-20260724-06", "date_issued": "2026-07-24", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-24_1503.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — TRUE if both governments, or a joint statement, publicly confirm a ceasefire or cessation of hostilities reported by major press between 2026-07-25 and 2026-09-30; else FALSE — is not met on or before 2026-09-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Priors carry the US-Iran ceasefire-proposal question directly, including an indications line on a formal statement confirming or denying it. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "A United States government official publicly confirms or denies the reported rejected Iran ceasefire proposal between 2026-07-25 and 2026-08-03.", "domain": "political", "probability": 40, "resolution": "TRUE if a named US official or spokesperson, in on-record public reporting between 2026-07-25 and 2026-08-03, confirms or denies the reported ceasefire proposal; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-08-03", "citations": [ 5 ], "id": "KKR-20260724-07", "date_issued": "2026-07-24", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-24_1503.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-04", "notes": "HIT on the generous reading of \"confirms or denies,\" recorded as a judgment call. Carrying statement: President Trump, on record to reporters aboard Air Force One, 2026-07-27, reported by CNN — the US halted strikes on Iran at the regime's request, \"They asked us very nicely, 'Please stop, let's meet,'\" with strikes to resume if the two sides failed to reach a new ceasefire deal. A named US official publicly characterising the ceasefire posture on the record — that Iran sought a halt and that no ceasefire had been agreed — is read here as confirming the substance of the reported rejection. Secondary in-window support: White House Communications Director Steven Cheung, named, in a statement dated 2026-07-25 (CNN), urging Iran toward a negotiated deal. Contrary reading printed: no named US official addressed the al-Zaidi proposal specifically, and the only public denial of the New York Times account of 2026-07-24 came from the Iraqi government, not the United States; on a strict reading of \"the reported ceasefire proposal\" this row is a MISS. Trump's 2026-07-22 \"not ready to make a deal\" remark falls outside the window and was not relied on. Keyed by rule.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — TRUE if a named US official or spokesperson, in on-record public reporting between 2026-07-25 and 2026-08-03, confirms or denies the reported ceasefire proposal; else FALSE — is not met on or before 2026-08-03; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "deducible from the cited report items", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01" }, { "statement": "The CDC publicly identifies a specific implicated food product or source for the US cyclosporiasis outbreak between 2026-07-25 and 2026-08-31.", "domain": "public_health", "probability": 50, "resolution": "TRUE if a CDC advisory or public statement between 2026-07-25 and 2026-08-31 names a specific food product or source linked to the outbreak; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-08-31", "citations": [ 6, 8 ], "id": "KKR-20260724-08", "date_issued": "2026-07-24", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-24_1503.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] CDC investigation updates dated 08-05 and 08-20 name processed iceberg lettuce from Taylor Farms de Mexico as the outbreak source (cdc.gov investigation page), squarely inside the 07-25 to 08-31 window.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — TRUE if a CDC advisory or public statement between 2026-07-25 and 2026-08-31 names a specific food product or source linked to the outbreak; else FALSE — is not met on or before 2026-08-31; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "priors [6] and [8] establish an expanding outbreak and explicitly report recall confusion adding uncertainty; identification of a specific implicated product is an investigative outcome the priors argue against rather than toward", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "CDC investigation updates dated 08-05 and 08-20 name processed iceberg lettuce from Taylor Farms de Mexico as the outbreak source (cdc.gov investigation page), squarely inside the 07-25 to 08-31 window." } }, { "statement": "The government of France declares a national state of emergency or equivalent nationwide wildfire emergency between 2026-07-25 and 2026-08-07.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 28, "resolution": "TRUE if the French national government formally declares a nationwide state of emergency for the wildfires, reported by major press between 2026-07-25 and 2026-08-07; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-08-07", "citations": [ 4, 7 ], "id": "KKR-20260724-09", "date_issued": "2026-07-24", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-24_1503.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-08", "notes": "[jury] The national-emergency declaration in the late-July coverage belongs to Spain, not France: Fox News (late July 2026) states explicitly that Spain has declared a national emergency while France has deployed the military, and France 24 (July 25) reports Sanchez declaring Spain's civil-protection emergency. France's national-level measures in the window were EU Civil Protection Mechanism activation, roughly 1,500 troops to Gironde, and prefect-level bans (Wikipedia, 2026 France wildfires; Al Jazeera, July 28) - no French nationwide state-of-emergency declaration is reported by major press through", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — TRUE if the French national government formally declares a nationwide state of emergency for the wildfires, reported by major press between 2026-07-25 and 2026-08-07; else FALSE — is not met on or before 2026-08-07; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "no cited item is sufficient to deduce the outcome", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The national-emergency declaration in the late-July coverage belongs to Spain, not France: Fox News (late July 2026) states explicitly that Spain has declared a national emergency while France has deployed the military, and France 24 (July 25) reports Sanchez declaring Spain's civil-protection emergency. France's national-level measures in the window were EU Civil Protection Mechanism activation, roughly 1,500 troops to Gironde, and prefect-level bans (Wikipedia, 2026 France wildfires; Al Jazeera, July 28) - no French nationwide state-of-emergency declaration is reported by major press through" } }, { "statement": "CISA adds the Certighost Active Directory vulnerability to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-07-25 and 2026-09-15.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if a Certighost-related CVE appears in the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a date-added value between 2026-07-25 and 2026-09-15; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-15", "citations": [ 1 ], "id": "KKR-20260724-10", "date_issued": "2026-07-24", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-24_1503.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — TRUE if a Certighost-related CVE appears in the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a date-added value between 2026-07-25 and 2026-09-15; else FALSE — is not met on or before 2026-09-15; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior discloses the same vulnerability by name: \"Certighost Exploit Lets Low-Privileged Active Directory Users Impersonate a Domain Controller\". KEV listing is the ordinary next stage for a disclosed critical flaw. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The US cyclosporiasis case count reported by the CDC exceeds 15000 between 2026-07-25 and 2026-08-31.", "domain": "public_health", "probability": 45, "resolution": "TRUE if a CDC report or advisory between 2026-07-25 and 2026-08-31 states a case count above 15000 for the cyclosporiasis outbreak; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-08-31", "citations": [ 6, 8 ], "id": "KKR-20260724-11", "date_issued": "2026-07-24", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-24_1503.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] The CDC cyclosporiasis surveillance page reported 15,716 laboratory-confirmed domestic cases in its mid-August posting and 17,180 in its late-August posting, both in-window and above 15,000, with 11,800-plus additional cases under review.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — TRUE if a CDC report or advisory between 2026-07-25 and 2026-08-31 states a case count above 15000 for the cyclosporiasis outbreak; else FALSE — is not met on or before 2026-08-31; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "prior [6] gives 7,400 cases already expanding across nine states; roughly doubling over five weeks is extrapolation of the growth the prior itself states, not a departure from it", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The CDC cyclosporiasis surveillance page reported 15,716 laboratory-confirmed domestic cases in its mid-August posting and 17,180 in its late-August posting, both in-window and above 15,000, with 11,800-plus additional cases under review." } }, { "statement": "ICE Brent front-month crude settles at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-07-27 and 2026-08-14.", "domain": "economics", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if any ICE Brent front-month official daily settlement reported by ICE or major financial press between 2026-07-27 and 2026-08-14 is 100.00 USD or higher; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-08-14", "citations": [ 8 ], "id": "KKR-20260725-01", "date_issued": "2026-07-25", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-25_1714.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] Bloomberg reported Brent retreated from 100 dollars and settled near 97 on Jul 24 2026, before the window opened; within Jul 27 to Aug 14 the highest observed Brent levels were around 92 to 93 in late July per Fortune trackers, fading to 87-88 by mid August, with no settlement at or above 100.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — TRUE if any ICE Brent front-month official daily settlement reported by ICE or major financial press between 2026-07-27 and 2026-08-14 is 100.00 USD or higher; else FALSE — is not met on or before 2026-08-14; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "no cited item is sufficient to deduce the outcome", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Bloomberg reported Brent retreated from 100 dollars and settled near 97 on Jul 24 2026, before the window opened; within Jul 27 to Aug 14 the highest observed Brent levels were around 92 to 93 in late July per Fortune trackers, fading to 87-88 by mid August, with no settlement at or above 100." } }, { "statement": "The S&P 500 closes at or below 7000 on at least one trading day between 2026-07-27 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "markets", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if the official S&P 500 closing level reported by major financial press is 7000 or lower on any trading day between 2026-07-27 and 2026-09-30; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 6 ], "id": "KKR-20260725-02", "date_issued": "2026-07-25", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-25_1714.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — TRUE if the official S&P 500 closing level reported by major financial press is 7000 or lower on any trading day between 2026-07-27 and 2026-09-30; else FALSE — is not met on or before 2026-09-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The United States 10-year Treasury yield closes at or above 5.00 percent on at least one trading day between 2026-07-27 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "economics", "probability": 18, "resolution": "TRUE if the daily closing 10-year constant-maturity Treasury yield reported by the US Treasury or major financial press reaches 5.00 percent or higher on any trading day in the window; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 6 ], "id": "KKR-20260725-03", "date_issued": "2026-07-25", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-25_1714.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — TRUE if the daily closing 10-year constant-maturity Treasury yield reported by the US Treasury or major financial press reaches 5.00 percent or higher on any trading day in the window; else FALSE — is not met on or before 2026-09-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "The strongest candidate behind this row’s citations concerns Iranian state television. No prior names Treasury yields. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "At least two independent wire services report a new US or Israeli military strike on Iranian territory or Iranian-flagged maritime assets between 2026-07-27 and 2026-08-24.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 55, "resolution": "TRUE if two or more of Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC, or Al Jazeera publish reports of a new strike on Iranian territory or Iranian-flagged vessels dated within the window; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-08-24", "citations": [ 8 ], "id": "KKR-20260725-04", "date_issued": "2026-07-25", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-25_1714.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] CENTCOM announced it completed a heavy wave of strikes on dozens of IRGC targets inside Iran by 10pm ET on July 29, 2026 after a five-night pause; Al Jazeera with Reuters (July 30, 2026) reported the strikes and Iranian reports of three civilians and three IRGC personnel killed, AP (Samy Magdy and Elena Becatoros, July 30, 2026, via Just Security) reported the same wave, and NPR, CNN and NBC News (July 29-30, 2026) carried it as well.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — TRUE if two or more of Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC, or Al Jazeera publish reports of a new strike on Iranian territory or Iranian-flagged vessels dated within the window; else FALSE — is not met on or before 2026-08-24; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "deducible from the cited report items", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "CENTCOM announced it completed a heavy wave of strikes on dozens of IRGC targets inside Iran by 10pm ET on July 29, 2026 after a five-night pause; Al Jazeera with Reuters (July 30, 2026) reported the strikes and Iranian reports of three civilians and three IRGC personnel killed, AP (Samy Magdy and Elena Becatoros, July 30, 2026, via Just Security) reported the same wave, and NPR, CNN and NBC News (July 29-30, 2026) carried it as well." } }, { "statement": "The United States and Iran publicly announce a ceasefire or formal cessation of hostilities between 2026-07-27 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 20, "resolution": "TRUE if both governments, or a joint statement, publicly confirm a ceasefire or cessation of hostilities reported by major press within the window; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 8 ], "id": "KKR-20260725-05", "date_issued": "2026-07-25", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-25_1714.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — TRUE if both governments, or a joint statement, publicly confirm a ceasefire or cessation of hostilities reported by major press within the window; else FALSE — is not met on or before 2026-09-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports the same negotiation: \"Iran’s government spars with state TV as mediators push talks with US\". Ruled across all 6 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The French national government formally declares a nationwide state of emergency for the wildfires between 2026-07-27 and 2026-08-10.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 22, "resolution": "TRUE if the French national government formally declares a nationwide state of emergency covering the wildfires, reported by two independent wire services within the window; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-08-10", "citations": [ 4, 7 ], "id": "KKR-20260725-06", "date_issued": "2026-07-25", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-25_1714.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-11", "notes": "[jury] AP reporting carried by NPR 2026-07-28 states the crisis prompted the government to declare a national emergency for wildfires for the first time; PBS NewsHour carries the same AP line, the government declared a national emergency over the fires. Timing falls inside the 2026-07-27 to 2026-08-10 window.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — TRUE if the French national government formally declares a nationwide state of emergency covering the wildfires, reported by two independent wire services within the window; else FALSE — is not met on or before 2026-08-10; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "no cited item is sufficient to deduce the outcome", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "operator", "verdicts": { "claude": "AMBIGUOUS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "AP reporting carried by NPR 2026-07-28 states the crisis prompted the government to declare a national emergency for wildfires for the first time; PBS NewsHour carries the same AP line, the government declared a national emergency over the fires. Timing falls inside the 2026-07-27 to 2026-08-10 window." } }, { "statement": "The UK Ministry of Defence publicly confirms deployment of military assets to assist wildfire suppression in Scotland between 2026-07-27 and 2026-08-07.", "domain": "political", "probability": 60, "resolution": "TRUE if the UK MoD or Scottish Government confirms deployment of military personnel or aircraft to the Cairngorms wildfire, reported by major press within the window; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-08-07", "citations": [ 3 ], "id": "KKR-20260725-07", "date_issued": "2026-07-25", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-25_1714.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-08", "notes": "[jury] The Scottish Government requested military aerial support around Aug 1 (UK Defence Journal); the UK Government answered with availability - Chinooks and standby battalions ready if requested (Press and Journal; UK Defence Journal, early Aug) - but the MoD could not supply the aerial firefighting capability sought and the offered support was declined, with Neil Gray saying ground crews had the resources needed (Wikipedia, 2026 Cairngorms wildfire; Press and Journal timeline). No MoD or Scottish Government confirmation of an actual military deployment to the fire appears in major press within th", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — TRUE if the UK MoD or Scottish Government confirms deployment of military personnel or aircraft to the Cairngorms wildfire, reported by major press within the window; else FALSE — is not met on or before 2026-08-07; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "deducible from the cited report items", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The Scottish Government requested military aerial support around Aug 1 (UK Defence Journal); the UK Government answered with availability - Chinooks and standby battalions ready if requested (Press and Journal; UK Defence Journal, early Aug) - but the MoD could not supply the aerial firefighting capability sought and the offered support was declined, with Neil Gray saying ground crews had the resources needed (Wikipedia, 2026 Cairngorms wildfire; Press and Journal timeline). No MoD or Scottish Government confirmation of an actual military deployment to the fire appears in major press within th" } }, { "statement": "CISA adds a Fastjson or GitLab remote-code-execution CVE to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-07-27 and 2026-09-15.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 40, "resolution": "TRUE if a Fastjson-related or GitLab-related CVE appears in the CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value within the window; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-15", "citations": [ 3, 4 ], "id": "KKR-20260725-08", "date_issued": "2026-07-25", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-25_1714.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — TRUE if a Fastjson-related or GitLab-related CVE appears in the CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value within the window; else FALSE — is not met on or before 2026-09-15; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports the same vulnerability under active attack: \"Fastjson 1.x RCE Vulnerability Targeted in Attacks With No Patch Available\". Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "Iranian state broadcaster IRIB airs the full presidential speech it was reported to have censored, with resolution of the dispute confirmed, between 2026-07-27 and 2026-08-15.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if Al Jazeera, Reuters, or AP report that IRIB broadcast the previously withheld speech or that the government-broadcaster dispute was formally resolved within the window; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-08-15", "citations": [ 8 ], "id": "KKR-20260725-09", "date_issued": "2026-07-25", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-25_1714.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] Al Jazeera (July 25, 2026) and bne IntelliNews (July 24, 2026) reported the government information council accusing IRIB of censoring Pezeshkian speech; Iran International (Aug 22, 2026) reported the IRGC chief publicly backing IRIB amid its clashes with Pezeshkian and Ghalibaf and stated the broadcaster still had not explained the omission, with no mention of the withheld remarks being aired or the dispute being settled.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — TRUE if Al Jazeera, Reuters, or AP report that IRIB broadcast the previously withheld speech or that the government-broadcaster dispute was formally resolved within the window; else FALSE — is not met on or before 2026-08-15; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "no cited item is sufficient to deduce the outcome", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Al Jazeera (July 25, 2026) and bne IntelliNews (July 24, 2026) reported the government information council accusing IRIB of censoring Pezeshkian speech; Iran International (Aug 22, 2026) reported the IRGC chief publicly backing IRIB amid its clashes with Pezeshkian and Ghalibaf and stated the broadcaster still had not explained the omission, with no mention of the withheld remarks being aired or the dispute being settled." } }, { "statement": "A US federal court or the Supreme Court issues a ruling in a challenge to Trump administration tariffs between 2026-07-27 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "political", "probability": 45, "resolution": "TRUE if a US federal court or the Supreme Court issues a merits ruling on the legality of any Trump administration tariff, reported by major press within the window; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-31", "citations": [ 13 ], "id": "KKR-20260725-10", "date_issued": "2026-07-25", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-25_1714.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — TRUE if a US federal court or the Supreme Court issues a merits ruling on the legality of any Trump administration tariff, reported by major press within the window; else FALSE — is not met on or before 2026-10-31; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior is commentary on tariff implications; no prior names a court or a pending case. Ruled across all 4 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "Brent crude front-month futures settle above 120.00 USD per barrel on any trading day between 2026-08-02 and 2027-01-15.", "domain": "economics_markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "Any front-month Brent settlement above 120.00 USD in the window, per ICE settlement data or two financial wire services. Intraday highs do not count.", "deadline": "2027-01-15", "citations": [ 1, 24 ], "id": "KKR-20260726-01", "date_issued": "2026-07-26", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — Any front-month Brent settlement above 120.00 USD in the window, per ICE settlement data or two financial wire services — is not met on or before 2027-01-15; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 6 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_superseded": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_corrected": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_correction": "CORRECTED from keyless. cite_integrity finds this entry UNSUPPORTED: none of its 2 cited item(s) shares discriminating vocabulary with the claim. A KEYLESS ruling asserts the entry went beyond its declared priors; where the priors ground nothing, there is no readable prior to have gone beyond and the assertion is unsupportable. The forecaster may have held the right item in view and cited badly - the record cannot say. 4.03 defaults KEYED where the determination cannot be made, and the determination doctrine's own rule requires taking the reading that does not inflate the faculty-bearing count. Keyed by rule, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_authority": "Ruled by the assistant at the operator's explicit delegation, under the determination doctrine of 2026-08-04 rev. 2. Recorded as the assistant's ruling, not the operator's." }, { "statement": "The US 10-year Treasury yield closes above 5.00 percent on any trading day between 2026-08-02 and 2027-01-15.", "domain": "economics_markets", "probability": 55, "resolution": "Any daily close at or above 5.00 percent on the benchmark 10-year yield per US Treasury par yield curve or two financial wire services.", "deadline": "2027-01-15", "citations": [ 11 ], "id": "KKR-20260726-02", "date_issued": "2026-07-26", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — Any daily close at or above 5.00 percent on the benchmark 10-year yield per US Treasury par yield curve or two financial wire services — is not met on or before 2027-01-15; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 4 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The Nasdaq Composite closes below 22478 on any trading day between 2026-08-02 and 2027-01-15.", "domain": "economics_markets", "probability": 40, "resolution": "Any official Nasdaq Composite daily close below 22478, which is ten percent below the 24975.82 reference close in this report, per exchange data.", "deadline": "2027-01-15", "citations": [ 20, 21 ], "id": "KKR-20260726-03", "date_issued": "2026-07-26", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — Any official Nasdaq Composite daily close below 22478, which is ten percent below the 24975.82 reference close in this report, per exchange data — is not met on or before 2027-01-15; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 2 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_superseded": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_corrected": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_correction": "CORRECTED from keyless. cite_integrity finds this entry UNSUPPORTED: none of its 2 cited item(s) shares discriminating vocabulary with the claim. A KEYLESS ruling asserts the entry went beyond its declared priors; where the priors ground nothing, there is no readable prior to have gone beyond and the assertion is unsupportable. The forecaster may have held the right item in view and cited badly - the record cannot say. 4.03 defaults KEYED where the determination cannot be made, and the determination doctrine's own rule requires taking the reading that does not inflate the faculty-bearing count. Keyed by rule, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_authority": "Ruled by the assistant at the operator's explicit delegation, under the determination doctrine of 2026-08-04 rev. 2. Recorded as the assistant's ruling, not the operator's." }, { "statement": "German authorities announce the arrest or formal charging of a suspect in the Berlin Pride vehicle attack between 2026-07-26 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 85, "resolution": "German police or prosecutors publicly confirm an arrest or charge tied to the Berlin Pride ramming, reported by two independent wire services in the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 5, 6 ], "id": "KKR-20260726-04", "date_issued": "2026-07-26", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — German police or prosecutors publicly confirm an arrest or charge tied to the Berlin Pride ramming, reported by two independent wire services in the window — is not met on or before 2026-10-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports the same attack and the same investigation: \"Police hunt for suspect after one killed and 16 injured in attack at Berlin Pride\". Ruled across all 5 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "A NATO member formally requests Article 4 consultations over Russian drone or airspace incursions between 2026-08-02 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "NATO or a member government confirms an Article 4 request citing Russian drone or airspace incursion, per NATO statement or two independent wire services.", "deadline": "2026-12-31", "citations": [ 1 ], "id": "KKR-20260726-05", "date_issued": "2026-07-26", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — NATO or a member government confirms an Article 4 request citing Russian drone or airspace incursion, per NATO statement or two independent wire services — is not met on or before 2026-12-31; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports the same incursions and the same escalation ladder: \"Romania summons Russia’s ambassador after downing third drone since Friday\". Ruled across all 6 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "Syria and Israel sign or jointly announce a concluded security agreement between 2026-08-02 and 2027-01-15.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 18, "resolution": "Both governments confirm a concluded security agreement, not talks or a framework, per official statements or two independent wire services in the window.", "deadline": "2027-01-15", "citations": [ 14 ], "id": "KKR-20260726-06", "date_issued": "2026-07-26", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — Both governments confirm a concluded security agreement, not talks or a framework, per official statements or two independent wire services in the window — is not met on or before 2027-01-15; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports the same parties in the same negotiation: \"President Ahmed al-Sharaa: Syria seeking security deal with Israel\". Ruled across all 4 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "A supply-chain compromise affecting 100 or more packages on npm, PyPI, or a GitHub-hosted registry is publicly disclosed between 2026-08-02 and 2027-01-15.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 45, "resolution": "A registry operator or established security vendor reports a single campaign compromising 100 or more distinct packages, with a named incident writeup in the window.", "deadline": "2027-01-15", "citations": [ 1, 3 ], "id": "KKR-20260726-07", "date_issued": "2026-07-26", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — A registry operator or established security vendor reports a single campaign compromising 100 or more distinct packages, with a named incident writeup in the window — is not met on or before 2027-01-15; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports platforms adding defences, not an attack; the claim requires a compromise affecting 100 or more packages. The claim requires a numeric threshold no prior reports as reached. A prior that supplies the current level makes the gap measurable; it does not make the level deducible. Ruled across all 6 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "An earthquake of magnitude 4.5 or greater occurs within 100 km of Spearman, Texas between 2026-08-02 and 2027-01-15.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 35, "resolution": "USGS catalogs an event of magnitude 4.5 or greater with an epicenter within 100 km of Spearman, Texas in the window.", "deadline": "2027-01-15", "citations": [ 7, 13 ], "id": "KKR-20260726-08", "date_issued": "2026-07-26", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — USGS catalogs an event of magnitude 4.5 or greater with an epicenter within 100 km of Spearman, Texas in the window — is not met on or before 2027-01-15; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports M5.0 38 km SSE of Spearman, Texas — the same location and the same active sequence; a subsequent M4.5 is the ordinary continuation. Ruled across all 5 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "French authorities order a mandatory evacuation of any arrondissement inside Bordeaux city proper due to wildfire between 2026-07-26 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 15, "resolution": "A prefectural or municipal mandatory evacuation order covering territory inside Bordeaux commune boundaries, attributed to wildfire, per two independent wire services.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 4, 7 ], "id": "KKR-20260726-09", "date_issued": "2026-07-26", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — A prefectural or municipal mandatory evacuation order covering territory inside Bordeaux commune boundaries, attributed to wildfire, per two independent wire services — is not met on or before 2026-09-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 6 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The Democratic Party wins control of the US House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm election, as called by the Associated Press by 2027-01-15.", "domain": "political", "probability": 55, "resolution": "The Associated Press calls Democratic control of the House with at least 218 seats on or before 2027-01-15.", "deadline": "2027-01-15", "citations": [ 13, 14 ], "id": "KKR-20260726-10", "date_issued": "2026-07-26", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — The Associated Press calls Democratic control of the House with at least 218 seats on or before 2027-01-15 — is not met on or before 2027-01-15; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports a party chair claiming momentum 100 days out. The claim asserts the result of a contest whose outcome no prior reports. Priors naming the contest supply the question, not the answer. Ruled across all 4 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "Ukraine conducts a second strike on Iranian vessels in the Caspian Sea between 2026-08-02 and 2026-08-05, resulting in confirmed damage to at least one vessel.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 25, "resolution": "At least one Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea is confirmed damaged by a Ukrainian strike, as reported by at least two independent news outlets with verified timestamps between 2026-08-02 and 2026-08-05.", "deadline": "2026-08-05", "citations": [ 1, 24 ], "id": "KKR-20260726-11", "date_issued": "2026-07-26", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-06", "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — At least one Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea is confirmed damaged by a Ukrainian strike, as reported by at least two independent news outlets with verified timestamps between 2026-08-02 and 2026-08-05 — is not met on or before 2026-08-05; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "no cited item is sufficient to deduce the outcome", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01" }, { "statement": "The S&P 500 closes below 7,200 points on or before 2026-10-15 due to sustained investor panic over AI sector overvaluation.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The closing price of the S&P 500 on or before 2026-10-15 is below 7,200, as reported by a major financial data provider such as Bloomberg or Reuters.", "deadline": "2026-10-15", "citations": [ 3, 5, 21 ], "id": "KKR-20260726-12", "date_issued": "2026-07-26", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — The closing price of the S&P 500 on or before 2026-10-15 is below 7,200, as reported by a major financial data provider such as Bloomberg or Reuters — is not met on or before 2026-10-15; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 6 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_superseded": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_corrected": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_correction": "CORRECTED from keyless. cite_integrity finds this entry UNSUPPORTED: none of its 3 cited item(s) shares discriminating vocabulary with the claim. A KEYLESS ruling asserts the entry went beyond its declared priors; where the priors ground nothing, there is no readable prior to have gone beyond and the assertion is unsupportable. The forecaster may have held the right item in view and cited badly - the record cannot say. 4.03 defaults KEYED where the determination cannot be made, and the determination doctrine's own rule requires taking the reading that does not inflate the faculty-bearing count. Keyed by rule, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_authority": "Ruled by the assistant at the operator's explicit delegation, under the determination doctrine of 2026-08-04 rev. 2. Recorded as the assistant's ruling, not the operator's." }, { "statement": "Romania formally protests to the UN Security Council over Russian drone activity in its airspace between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-13.", "domain": "political", "probability": 20, "resolution": "A formal protest letter from Romania to the UN Security Council, citing Russian drone incursions, is published in the UN official document system between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-13.", "deadline": "2026-08-13", "citations": [ 3, 19 ], "id": "KKR-20260726-13", "date_issued": "2026-07-26", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] Late July and early August 2026 reporting shows Romania responded to drone incursions bilaterally: ambassador summoned, protest note to Russia, a Russian diplomat expelled; the only Romanian UNSC protest letter located is S/2026/447 dated May 29 2026, and searches surface no new letter published in the UN document system between Aug 10 and Aug 13.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — A formal protest letter from Romania to the UN Security Council, citing Russian drone incursions, is published in the UN official document system between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-13 — is not met on or before 2026-08-13; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "no cited item is sufficient to deduce the outcome", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Late July and early August 2026 reporting shows Romania responded to drone incursions bilaterally: ambassador summoned, protest note to Russia, a Russian diplomat expelled; the only Romanian UNSC protest letter located is S/2026/447 dated May 29 2026, and searches surface no new letter published in the UN document system between Aug 10 and Aug 13." } }, { "statement": "France experiences a new major wildfire in the Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur region between 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-04, forcing evacuations of at least 10,000 people.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 35, "resolution": "At least 10,000 people are evacuated from the Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur region of France due to a wildfire, as confirmed by French civil protection authorities or a major international news outlet between 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-04.", "deadline": "2026-10-04", "citations": [ 7, 15, 19 ], "id": "KKR-20260726-14", "date_issued": "2026-07-26", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — At least 10,000 people are evacuated from the Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur region of France due to a wildfire, as confirmed by French civil protection authorities or a major international news outlet between 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-04 — is not met on or before 2026-10-04; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Priors report current Iberian and French fires; the claim is scoped to Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur in October. Ruled across all 5 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "Iran announces a new military exercise in the Caspian Sea involving missile launches between 2026-08-20 and 2026-08-23, confirmed by multiple international news sources.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 40, "resolution": "At least two independent news outlets report that Iran conducted a military exercise in the Caspian Sea involving missile launches, with the event occurring between 2026-08-20 and 2026-08-23.", "deadline": "2026-08-23", "citations": [ 1, 24 ], "id": "KKR-20260726-15", "date_issued": "2026-07-26", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] No report of an Iranian military exercise with missile launches in the Caspian Sea between Aug 20 and Aug 23, 2026 was found; Caspian coverage in the window concerns Russian weapons transfers to Iran via the Caspian (NBC News Aug 18, 2026, via ISW/Critical Threats Iran Update Aug 18) and Iranian diplomatic statements on Caspian security (IRNA Aug 12, 2026), and the Iran-related military reporting in the window involves ballistic missiles fired at the UAE on Aug 18 and Hormuz tensions, not a Caspian drill.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — At least two independent news outlets report that Iran conducted a military exercise in the Caspian Sea involving missile launches, with the event occurring between 2026-08-20 and 2026-08-23 — is not met on or before 2026-08-23; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "no cited item is sufficient to deduce the outcome", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "No report of an Iranian military exercise with missile launches in the Caspian Sea between Aug 20 and Aug 23, 2026 was found; Caspian coverage in the window concerns Russian weapons transfers to Iran via the Caspian (NBC News Aug 18, 2026, via ISW/Critical Threats Iran Update Aug 18) and Iranian diplomatic statements on Caspian security (IRNA Aug 12, 2026), and the Iran-related military reporting in the window involves ballistic missiles fired at the UAE on Aug 18 and Hormuz tensions, not a Caspian drill." } }, { "statement": "The European Central Bank announces a 0.5 percentage point interest rate hike on or before 2026-11-15, citing inflation concerns.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The European Central Bank officially announces a 0.5 percentage point increase in its key interest rate on or before 2026-11-15, as reported by Reuters, Bloomberg, or the ECB's official website.", "deadline": "2026-11-15", "citations": [ 11, 13, 17 ], "id": "KKR-20260726-16", "date_issued": "2026-07-26", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — The European Central Bank officially announces a 0.5 percentage point increase in its key interest rate on or before 2026-11-15, as reported by Reuters, Bloomberg, or the ECB's official website — is not met on or before 2026-11-15; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 4 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "A major cyberattack on a U.S. state government website results in public data exposure between 2026-09-25 and 2026-09-28.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 10, "resolution": "A U.S. state government website suffers a confirmed data breach resulting in public exposure of personal data, as reported by at least two independent news sources between 2026-09-25 and 2026-09-28.", "deadline": "2026-09-28", "citations": [ 8, 10, 11 ], "id": "KKR-20260726-17", "date_issued": "2026-07-26", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — A U.S. state government website suffers a confirmed data breach resulting in public exposure of personal data, as reported by at least two independent news sources between 2026-09-25 and 2026-09-28 — is not met on or before 2026-09-28; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 5 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_superseded": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_corrected": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_correction": "CORRECTED from keyless. cite_integrity finds this entry UNSUPPORTED: none of its 3 cited item(s) shares discriminating vocabulary with the claim. A KEYLESS ruling asserts the entry went beyond its declared priors; where the priors ground nothing, there is no readable prior to have gone beyond and the assertion is unsupportable. The forecaster may have held the right item in view and cited badly - the record cannot say. 4.03 defaults KEYED where the determination cannot be made, and the determination doctrine's own rule requires taking the reading that does not inflate the faculty-bearing count. Keyed by rule, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_authority": "Ruled by the assistant at the operator's explicit delegation, under the determination doctrine of 2026-08-04 rev. 2. Recorded as the assistant's ruling, not the operator's." }, { "statement": "The UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham publicly criticizes Donald Trump's foreign policy in a televised address between 2026-08-15 and 2026-08-18.", "domain": "political", "probability": 30, "resolution": "A transcript or video of a televised address by UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham, published by a major news outlet, contains a direct public criticism of Donald Trump's foreign policy, with the event occurring between 2026-08-15 and 2026-08-18.", "deadline": "2026-08-18", "citations": [ 12, 13, 14 ], "id": "KKR-20260726-18", "date_issued": "2026-07-26", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] No major-outlet transcript or video of a televised address by PM Andy Burnham between Aug 15 and Aug 18, 2026 criticizing Trump foreign policy was found; the only in-window Burnham broadcast item located is Bloomberg (Aug 18, 2026) reporting his remarks to broadcasters about messaging a Susie Wiles impersonator, with no foreign-policy criticism; Al Arabiya/Bloomberg (July 21, 2026) and Novara Media (July 22, 2026) show Burnham continuing Starmer policy of allowing US use of UK bases for Iran strikes.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — A transcript or video of a televised address by UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham, published by a major news outlet, contains a direct public criticism of Donald Trump's foreign policy, with the event occurring between 2026-08-15 and 2026-08-18 — is not met on or before 2026-08-18; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "deducible from the cited report items", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "No major-outlet transcript or video of a televised address by PM Andy Burnham between Aug 15 and Aug 18, 2026 criticizing Trump foreign policy was found; the only in-window Burnham broadcast item located is Bloomberg (Aug 18, 2026) reporting his remarks to broadcasters about messaging a Susie Wiles impersonator, with no foreign-policy criticism; Al Arabiya/Bloomberg (July 21, 2026) and Novara Media (July 22, 2026) show Burnham continuing Starmer policy of allowing US use of UK bases for Iran strikes." } }, { "statement": "A new political party led by Senegal's Faye formally registers with the country's electoral commission between 2026-08-03 and 2026-08-06.", "domain": "political", "probability": 45, "resolution": "The Senegalese electoral commission publishes a formal registration of a new political party led by Faye, as confirmed by Al Jazeera or a government press release, between 2026-08-03 and 2026-08-06.", "deadline": "2026-08-06", "citations": [ 8, 22 ], "id": "KKR-20260726-19", "date_issued": "2026-07-26", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-07", "notes": "[jury] Al Jazeera dated 2026-07-26 reported Faye launched Kiiraay - The Republican Patriots at a founding assembly in Dakar on Saturday 2026-07-25, before the window opened. No Al Jazeera report or Senegalese government press release records a formal registration of the party with the electoral commission between 2026-08-03 and 2026-08-06.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — The Senegalese electoral commission publishes a formal registration of a new political party led by Faye, as confirmed by Al Jazeera or a government press release, between 2026-08-03 and 2026-08-06 — is not met on or before 2026-08-06; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "deducible from the cited report items", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "e5a455ef443bcd9fa793de281b47273bc9b857ac4c4bcd5f305bcefba04e9ddf", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "AMBIGUOUS" }, "evidence": "Al Jazeera dated 2026-07-26 reported Faye launched Kiiraay - The Republican Patriots at a founding assembly in Dakar on Saturday 2026-07-25, before the window opened. No Al Jazeera report or Senegalese government press release records a formal registration of the party with the electoral commission between 2026-08-03 and 2026-08-06." } }, { "statement": "Lieutenant General Gregory K. Anderson will no longer be named as commanding officer of the XVIII Airborne Corps in the source of record on 2026-08-14.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "Resolved on 2026-08-14 by inspecting https://www.army.mil/article-amp/293339/americas_contingency_corps_welcomes_new_senior_enlisted_adviser : hit if a different officer is named, miss if the same officer is named.", "deadline": "2026-08-14", "citations": [ 0 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-01", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "kfk/halflife", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-26_1623.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] The named army.mil article, retrieved via search cache and corroborated by DVIDS coverage from mid June 2026, names Lt. Gen. Gregory Anderson as commanding general of XVIII Airborne Corps in its text about the senior enlisted adviser change, and no reporting indicates a corps change of command before Aug 14 2026.", "failure_condition": "the same officer is named, as read from the resolution basis on 2026-08-14; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "deducible from the cited report items", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The named army.mil article, retrieved via search cache and corroborated by DVIDS coverage from mid June 2026, names Lt. Gen. Gregory Anderson as commanding general of XVIII Airborne Corps in its text about the senior enlisted adviser change, and no reporting indicates a corps change of command before Aug 14 2026." } }, { "statement": "Major General Brandon R. Tegtmeier will no longer be named as commanding officer of the 82nd Airborne Division in the source of record on 2026-09-25.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "Resolved on 2026-09-25 by inspecting https://www.army.mil/82ndairborne : hit if a different officer is named, miss if the same officer is named.", "deadline": "2026-09-25", "citations": [ 0 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-02", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "kfk/halflife", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-26_1623.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the same officer is named, as read from the resolution basis on 2026-09-25; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. kfk/halflife rows are produced by rule from the order-of-battle tracker, not by a forecaster reading a record; a rule-generated row cannot go beyond the rule. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "Major General John W. Lubas will no longer be named as commanding officer of the 3rd Infantry Division in the source of record on 2026-09-15.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "Resolved on 2026-09-15 by inspecting https://www.wkdzradio.com/2026/07/17/former-fort-campbell-commander-nominated-to-lead-xviii-airborne-corps/news-edge/ : hit if a different officer is named, miss if the same officer is named.", "deadline": "2026-09-15", "citations": [ 0 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-03", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "kfk/halflife", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-26_1623.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the same officer is named, as read from the resolution basis on 2026-09-15; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. kfk/halflife rows are produced by rule from the order-of-battle tracker, not by a forecaster reading a record; a rule-generated row cannot go beyond the rule. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "Major General David W. Gardner will no longer be named as commanding officer of the 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault) in the source of record on 2026-09-18.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "Resolved on 2026-09-18 by inspecting https://home.army.mil/campbell/about/leadership/senior-commander : hit if a different officer is named, miss if the same officer is named.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 0 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-04", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "kfk/halflife", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-26_1623.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the same officer is named, as read from the resolution basis on 2026-09-18; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. kfk/halflife rows are produced by rule from the order-of-battle tracker, not by a forecaster reading a record; a rule-generated row cannot go beyond the rule. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "Lieutenant General Benedikt Roos will no longer be named as commanding officer of the Swiss Armed Forces in the source of record on 2026-09-25.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "Resolved on 2026-09-25 by inspecting https://www.vtg.admin.ch/en/chief-of-the-armed-forces-roos : hit if a different officer is named, miss if the same officer is named.", "deadline": "2026-09-25", "citations": [ 0 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-05", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "kfk/halflife", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-26_1623.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the same officer is named, as read from the resolution basis on 2026-09-25; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. kfk/halflife rows are produced by rule from the order-of-battle tracker, not by a forecaster reading a record; a rule-generated row cannot go beyond the rule. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "Lieutenant General Sullay Ibrahim Sesay will no longer be named as commanding officer of the Sierra Leone - national armed forces in the source of record on 2026-09-25.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "Resolved on 2026-09-25 by inspecting https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chief_of_the_Defence_Staff_(Sierra_Leone) : hit if a different officer is named, miss if the same officer is named.", "deadline": "2026-09-25", "citations": [ 0 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-06", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "kfk/halflife", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-26_1623.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the same officer is named, as read from the resolution basis on 2026-09-25; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. kfk/halflife rows are produced by rule from the order-of-battle tracker, not by a forecaster reading a record; a rule-generated row cannot go beyond the rule. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "General Olufemi Oluyede will no longer be named as commanding officer of the Nigeria - national armed forces in the source of record on 2026-09-25.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "Resolved on 2026-09-25 by inspecting https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chief_of_Defence_Staff_(Nigeria) : hit if a different officer is named, miss if the same officer is named.", "deadline": "2026-09-25", "citations": [ 0 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-07", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "kfk/halflife", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-26_1623.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the same officer is named, as read from the resolution basis on 2026-09-25; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. kfk/halflife rows are produced by rule from the order-of-battle tracker, not by a forecaster reading a record; a rule-generated row cannot go beyond the rule. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "Army corps general Lassina Doumbia will no longer be named as commanding officer of the Ivory Coast - national armed forces in the source of record on 2026-09-25.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "Resolved on 2026-09-25 by inspecting https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chief_of_the_Defence_Staff_(Ivory_Coast) : hit if a different officer is named, miss if the same officer is named.", "deadline": "2026-09-25", "citations": [ 0 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-08", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "kfk/halflife", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-26_1623.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the same officer is named, as read from the resolution basis on 2026-09-25; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. kfk/halflife rows are produced by rule from the order-of-battle tracker, not by a forecaster reading a record; a rule-generated row cannot go beyond the rule. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "Air Chief Marshal Richard Knighton will no longer be named as commanding officer of the United Kingdom - national armed forces in the source of record on 2026-09-25.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "Resolved on 2026-09-25 by inspecting https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chief_of_the_Defence_Staff_(United_Kingdom) : hit if a different officer is named, miss if the same officer is named.", "deadline": "2026-09-25", "citations": [ 0 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-09", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "kfk/halflife", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-26_1623.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the same officer is named, as read from the resolution basis on 2026-09-25; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. kfk/halflife rows are produced by rule from the order-of-battle tracker, not by a forecaster reading a record; a rule-generated row cannot go beyond the rule. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "General Luciano Portolano will no longer be named as commanding officer of the Italy - national armed forces in the source of record on 2026-09-25.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "Resolved on 2026-09-25 by inspecting https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chief_of_the_Defence_Staff_(Italy) : hit if a different officer is named, miss if the same officer is named.", "deadline": "2026-09-25", "citations": [ 0 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-10", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "kfk/halflife", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-26_1500.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-26_1623.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the same officer is named, as read from the resolution basis on 2026-09-25; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. kfk/halflife rows are produced by rule from the order-of-battle tracker, not by a forecaster reading a record; a rule-generated row cannot go beyond the rule. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "New York City rental listings on StreetEasy and Zillow will show a 20% or greater drop in available units for rent in Manhattan and Brooklyn between 2026-07-27 and 2026-07-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 35, "resolution": "Public data from StreetEasy and Zillow, accessible via their official platforms, shows a 20% or greater decrease in available rental units in Manhattan and Brooklyn between 2026-07-27 and 2026-07-30.", "deadline": "2026-07-30", "citations": [ 4 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-11", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-27_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-27_1502.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-07-31", "notes": "StreetEasy and Zillow publish monthly market data; no public data source reports a 20% decline in available Manhattan and Brooklyn rental units between 2026-07-27 and 2026-07-30. StreetEasy's own 2026 reporting shows Manhattan inventory in a slow multi-month decline (24 consecutive months) and Brooklyn inventory rising on new development — neither at remotely this magnitude or velocity. Absence of confirming evidence at deadline. Criterion-drafting note: a 20% three-day inventory move is outside the plausible range of the named data sources' publication cadence.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — Public data from StreetEasy and Zillow, accessible via their official platforms, shows a 20% or greater decrease in available rental units in Manhattan and Brooklyn between 2026-07-27 and 2026-07-30 — is not met on or before 2026-07-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS." }, { "statement": "A confirmed breach of a critical infrastructure provider's system via an unpatched n8n instance will be reported by 2026-07-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "A public report from a credible source confirms a breach of a critical infrastructure provider's system due to an unpatched n8n vulnerability by 2026-07-30.", "deadline": "2026-07-30", "citations": [ 3 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-12", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-27_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-27_1502.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-07-31", "notes": "No public report from a credible source confirms a breach of a critical infrastructure provider via an unpatched n8n instance by 2026-07-30. The vulnerability landscape was active in-window — CVE-2026-21858 (CVSS 10), CVE-2026-25049, CVE-2026-27493, and a fresh expression-sandbox escape patched in 2.31.5/2.32.1 reported 2026-07-28 — but reporting covers vulnerabilities and patches, not a confirmed CI-provider breach. Cybersecurity Dive reported no evidence of exploitation for the headline CVE. Absence at deadline.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — A public report from a credible source confirms a breach of a critical infrastructure provider's system due to an unpatched n8n vulnerability by 2026-07-30 — is not met on or before 2026-07-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS." }, { "statement": "The UK Labour Party's lead over Reform UK in the latest poll will narrow to less than 5 points by 2026-07-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 25, "resolution": "A YouGov poll published by the Guardian or BBC on or before 2026-07-30 shows Labour's lead over Reform UK at less than 5 percentage points.", "deadline": "2026-07-30", "citations": [ 5 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-13", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-27_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-27_1502.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-07-31", "notes": "YouGov voting intention 26-27 July 2026 (Times/Sky tracker): Labour 22%, Reform UK 22% — Labour's lead over Reform at 0 points, under the 5-point threshold. Every YouGov in-window satisfies the criterion's literal text (19-20 Jul: Ref 23/Lab 20; 22-23 Jul: Ref 23/Lab 21), and the evident forecast intent — the gap closing inside 5 — is also satisfied: Reform's lead went from 3 to a dead tie, Labour's highest tracker share since September 2025, Reform's lowest since March 2025. New Statesman (07-28) corroborates the direction, citing More in Common's Labour +4 with YouGov moving the same way. Disconfirming: the criterion names \"a YouGov poll published by the Guardian or BBC\" — the tracker's clients are The Times and Sky News, and Guardian/BBC republication was not independently confirmed. Ruled on substance; venue clause noted as drafting sloppiness.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — A YouGov poll published by the Guardian or BBC on or before 2026-07-30 shows Labour's lead over Reform UK at less than 5 percentage points — is not met on or before 2026-07-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS." }, { "statement": "Oil prices will fall below $85 a barrel on the London Brent market by 2026-07-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 35, "resolution": "The London Brent crude oil price, as reported by Reuters or Bloomberg, drops below $85 per barrel by 2026-07-30.", "deadline": "2026-07-30", "citations": [ 8, 13 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-14", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-27_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-27_1502.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-07-31", "notes": "Brent never traded below $85 in the window. 07-29 ~$89.53 morning (Fortune); 07-30 session $90.04/$89.95 (Trading Economics), intraday range 86.31–89.50 (Investing.com), then $92.65 by 06:30 ET as the US strike wave on Iran repriced supply risk (Fortune, 07-30). Nearest approach to the threshold was $86.31 intraday — $1.31 short. Miss on close and intraday readings alike.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — The London Brent crude oil price, as reported by Reuters or Bloomberg, drops below $85 per barrel by 2026-07-30 — is not met on or before 2026-07-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS." }, { "statement": "The Home Office will publicly confirm the blocking of the evacuation of women and children from Gaza by 2026-07-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 40, "resolution": "A public statement from the UK Home Office, published by the Guardian or BBC, confirms the blocking of the evacuation of women and children from Gaza by 2026-07-30.", "deadline": "2026-07-30", "citations": [ 19 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-15", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-27_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-27_1502.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-07-31", "notes": "The Guardian reported Monday 2026-07-27 that the Home Office is blocking the evacuation of dozens of women and children from Gaza despite Foreign Office readiness — in-window, at the named venue. The report carries public Home Office statements: a spokesperson quote (\"family reunion will no longer be automatic\" under asylum reforms) and quoted 15 July Home Office correspondence to counsel (\"conditions your clients face in Gaza alone are not considered to amount to compelling circumstances\"), confirming the refusal of onward travel assurances and biometric requirements that constitute the block. Disconfirming: the Home Office confirms the conduct, not the characterization — it nowhere self-describes as \"blocking.\" Ruled hit: statement from the Home Office, published by the Guardian, confirming the operative refusals.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — A public statement from the UK Home Office, published by the Guardian or BBC, confirms the blocking of the evacuation of women and children from Gaza by 2026-07-30 — is not met on or before 2026-07-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS." }, { "statement": "The United States will publicly confirm a resumption of military strikes on targets inside Iranian territory, reported by at least two of Reuters, the Associated Press and the BBC, between 2026-07-28 and 2026-08-26.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 45, "resolution": "Resolved on 2026-08-26 by searching the Reuters, Associated Press and BBC archives: hit if at least two of the three report a US-acknowledged strike on Iranian territory dated in the window, miss otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-08-26", "citations": [ 6, 13, 24 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-16", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-27_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-27_1502.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] The US-acknowledged CENTCOM heavy wave of strikes on Iranian territory completed 10pm ET July 29, 2026 was reported by Reuters (co-bylined Al Jazeera report, July 30, 2026) and by AP (Samy Magdy and Elena Becatoros, July 30, 2026, cited by Just Security), with NPR (July 30, 2026) and CNN (July 29, 2026) quoting the CENTCOM acknowledgement; Al Jazeera characterized it as a resumption after a five-night pause.", "failure_condition": "the resolution basis does not report the stated outcome in the window; absence at 2026-08-26 scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "deducible from the cited report items", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": null }, "evidence": "The US-acknowledged CENTCOM heavy wave of strikes on Iranian territory completed 10pm ET July 29, 2026 was reported by Reuters (co-bylined Al Jazeera report, July 30, 2026) and by AP (Samy Magdy and Elena Becatoros, July 30, 2026, cited by Just Security), with NPR (July 30, 2026) and CNN (July 29, 2026) quoting the CENTCOM acknowledgement; Al Jazeera characterized it as a resumption after a five-night pause." } }, { "statement": "Brent crude front-month futures will trade above 100.00 dollars per barrel at some point between 2026-07-28 and 2026-08-31.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 22, "resolution": "ICE Brent front-month intraday high exceeds 100.00 dollars on any session in the window per published exchange data. Reference: 90.14 on the packet date.", "deadline": "2026-08-31", "citations": [ 6 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-17", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-27_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-27_1502.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Brent traded roughly 87 to 93 dollars across the window per oilprice daily coverage (89 on 08-25, near 90 on 08-28) and settled up about 3 percent above 90 on 08-31 per Bloomberg; period headlines describe Brent pushed closer to 100 but never through it.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — ICE Brent front-month intraday high exceeds 100.00 dollars on any session in the window per published exchange data — is not met on or before 2026-08-31; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "the resolution states its own anchor, Brent 90.14 on the packet date, so the level was held; 100.00 is an eleven percent crossing above it and nothing in the declared priors reaches toward a move of that size", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Brent traded roughly 87 to 93 dollars across the window per oilprice daily coverage (89 on 08-25, near 90 on 08-28) and settled up about 3 percent above 90 on 08-31 per Bloomberg; period headlines describe Brent pushed closer to 100 but never through it." } }, { "statement": "The German federal prosecutor will publicly classify the Berlin Pride vehicle attack as a terrorist offence rather than solely a hate crime, on or before 2026-08-14.", "domain": "political", "probability": 40, "resolution": "Resolved by a statement on the Generalbundesanwalt website, or reporting by two of Deutsche Presse-Agentur, Deutsche Welle and Reuters dated on or before 2026-08-14.", "deadline": "2026-08-14", "citations": [ 2, 20 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-18", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-27_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-27_1502.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] A DPA wire dated Jul 26 2026, carried by Freie Presse, Onvista and others, reports Justice Minister Hubig announced the Generalbundesanwalt would take over the Berlin CSD vehicle attack investigation as a suspected Islamist terror attack; the German Wikipedia article on the attack documents federal terror proceedings and an Islamic State pledge video attributed to the attacker, all well before Aug 14.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — a statement on the Generalbundesanwalt website, or reporting by two of Deutsche Presse-Agentur, Deutsche Welle and Reuters dated on or before 2026-08-14 — is not met on or before 2026-08-14; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "no cited item is sufficient to deduce the outcome", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "A DPA wire dated Jul 26 2026, carried by Freie Presse, Onvista and others, reports Justice Minister Hubig announced the Generalbundesanwalt would take over the Berlin CSD vehicle attack investigation as a suspected Islamist terror attack; the German Wikipedia article on the attack documents federal terror proceedings and an Islamic State pledge video attributed to the attacker, all well before Aug 14." } }, { "statement": "The German federal cabinet will approve a draft bill tightening extremism or weapons law that explicitly references the Berlin Pride attack, on or before 2026-10-31.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "Resolved by the Bundesregierung cabinet decisions page listing such a Gesetzentwurf on or before 2026-10-31, with the attack named in the accompanying release.", "deadline": "2026-10-31", "citations": [ 14, 20 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-19", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-27_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-27_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — the Bundesregierung cabinet decisions page listing such a Gesetzentwurf on or before 2026-10-31, with the attack named in the accompanying release — is not met on or before 2026-10-31; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports the same legislative impulse from the same government: \"German officials call for tighter extremism laws after Berlin Pride attack\". Ruled across all 4 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "At least three separately published national voting-intention polls will place Reform UK ahead of Labour, each with fieldwork ending between 2026-07-28 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 55, "resolution": "Counted from the pollsters' own published tables for that fieldwork window. Three distinct polling companies required; repeat waves by one company count once.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 5 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-20", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-27_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-27_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — Counted from the pollsters' own published tables for that fieldwork window — is not met on or before 2026-09-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "The claim requires at least three separately published polls placing Reform UK at a stated position; the priors carry one poll. The claim requires a numeric threshold no prior reports as reached. A prior that supplies the current level makes the gap measurable; it does not make the level deducible. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "Benjamin Netanyahu and Volodymyr Zelenskyy will both be reported as having met Donald Trump in person on United States soil between 2026-07-27 and 2026-08-10.", "domain": "political", "probability": 62, "resolution": "Resolved by White House schedules or pool reports, or by two wire services, showing both leaders in a face-to-face meeting with Trump in the window.", "deadline": "2026-08-10", "citations": [ 11 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-21", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-27_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-27_1502.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-11", "notes": "[jury] ABC News 2026-07-28 reports Zelenskyy and Netanyahu met separately with Trump in the Oval Office that Tuesday, with White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt posting that Trump had concluded his meetings with both. Fortune 2026-07-28 reports Netanyahu calling the White House visit excellent and notes Zelenskyy met Trump earlier the same day. Photographs are captioned Oval Office, Washington, July 28, 2026.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — White House schedules or pool reports, or by two wire services, showing both leaders in a face-to-face meeting with Trump in the window — is not met on or before 2026-08-10; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "deducible from the cited report items", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "ABC News 2026-07-28 reports Zelenskyy and Netanyahu met separately with Trump in the Oval Office that Tuesday, with White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt posting that Trump had concluded his meetings with both. Fortune 2026-07-28 reports Netanyahu calling the White House visit excellent and notes Zelenskyy met Trump earlier the same day. Photographs are captioned Oval Office, Washington, July 28, 2026." } }, { "statement": "The United States Senate will confirm Jay Clayton to the intelligence post for which he was nominated, on or before 2026-09-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 68, "resolution": "Resolved by the roll-call record on congress.gov showing a completed confirmation vote in the affirmative on or before 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 5 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-22", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-27_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-27_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — the roll-call record on congress.gov showing a completed confirmation vote in the affirmative on or before 2026-09-30 — is not met on or before 2026-09-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior names the same nominee and the same vote: \"Senate to begin voting on Trump intelligence nominee Jay Clayton\". Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "An official United States Department of Defense or service publication will report more than 900 US service members injured in the Iran conflict since February 2026, published on or before 2026-10-31.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 38, "resolution": "Resolved by a figure exceeding 900 appearing in a DoD, CENTCOM or service public-affairs release or congressional testimony transcript dated on or before 2026-10-31.", "deadline": "2026-10-31", "citations": [ 13 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-23", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-27_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-27_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — a figure exceeding 900 appearing in a DoD, CENTCOM or service public-affairs release or congressional testimony transcript dated on or before 2026-10-31 — is not met on or before 2026-10-31; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports \"More than 600 US military service members injured\"; the claim requires a published figure exceeding 900. The claim requires a numeric threshold no prior reports as reached. A prior that supplies the current level makes the gap measurable; it does not make the level deducible. Ruled across all 4 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The Israeli cabinet will publicly approve an expansion of ground operations in Gaza beyond the limited force approved in July 2026, on or before 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 47, "resolution": "Resolved by an Israeli Prime Minister's Office statement or two wire services reporting a cabinet decision expanding the approved force, dated on or before 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 14 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-24", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-27_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-27_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — an Israeli Prime Minister's Office statement or two wire services reporting a cabinet decision expanding the approved force, dated on or before 2026-09-30 — is not met on or before 2026-09-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports the same cabinet acting on the same question: \"Israel’s approval of limited Gaza force a calculated manoeuvre\". Ruled across all 4 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The European Forest Fire Information System will record more than 400000 hectares burned in Spain for calendar year 2026, as published on or before 2026-11-30.", "domain": "disaster/infrastructure", "probability": 52, "resolution": "Resolved by the EFFIS annual burnt-area statistics for Spain, read from the EFFIS portal on 2026-11-30. Hit if the cumulative figure exceeds 400000 hectares.", "deadline": "2026-11-30", "citations": [ 23, 25 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-25", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "manual/fable", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-27_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-27_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — the EFFIS annual burnt-area statistics for Spain, read from the EFFIS portal — is not met on or before 2026-11-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 3 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The United States conducts at least one military strike on Iranian territory between 2026-07-28 and 2026-08-14.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 35, "resolution": "Resolved yes if US Central Command or the Department of Defense confirms a strike on Iranian territory in that window, or if two or more of AP, Reuters and AFP report one.", "deadline": "2026-08-14", "citations": [ 6, 13, 19 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-26", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-27_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-27_1502.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] A CENTCOM public release dated Jul 29 2026, titled US Strikes IRGC Targets After Attempted Iranian Attacks, states CENTCOM forces completed a heavy wave of strikes against Iran at 10 pm ET on Jul 29 in response to attempted Iranian missile attacks on US forces; Jul 29 falls inside the Jul 28 to Aug 14 window and CENTCOM confirmation satisfies the first disjunct.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — Resolved yes if US Central Command or the Department of Defense confirms a strike on Iranian territory in that window, or if two or more of AP, Reuters and AFP report one — is not met on or before 2026-08-14; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "deducible from the cited report items", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "A CENTCOM public release dated Jul 29 2026, titled US Strikes IRGC Targets After Attempted Iranian Attacks, states CENTCOM forces completed a heavy wave of strikes against Iran at 10 pm ET on Jul 29 in response to attempted Iranian missile attacks on US forces; Jul 29 falls inside the Jul 28 to Aug 14 window and CENTCOM confirmation satisfies the first disjunct." } }, { "statement": "The upper bound of the US federal funds target range is above 3.75 percent on 2026-10-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "Resolved from the FOMC implementation note in effect on 2026-10-30. Yes if the upper bound of the target range exceeds 3.75 percent on that date.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 4, 8, 18 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-27", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-27_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-27_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — the FOMC implementation note in effect — is not met on or before 2026-10-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent front-month crude futures settle below 85.00 US dollars per barrel on 2026-08-28.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 45, "resolution": "Resolved from the official ICE settlement price for the front-month Brent contract on 2026-08-28. Yes if that settlement is below 85.00 US dollars.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 8, 13 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-28", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-27_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-27_1502.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Brent held near 90 dollars on 08-28 per oilprice.com same-day coverage and Fortune (90.55 at 6:30 a.m. ET on 08-28); the settlement was nowhere below 85.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — the official ICE settlement price for the front-month Brent contract — is not met on or before 2026-08-28; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "cited items [8] and [13] are unrelated to oil pricing and the row states no reference level; prevailing Brent is ordinary supplied knowledge, so a single-day settle below 85 is a distributional read from a level already held rather than foresight", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Brent held near 90 dollars on 08-28 per oilprice.com same-day coverage and Fortune (90.55 at 6:30 a.m. ET on 08-28); the settlement was nowhere below 85." } }, { "statement": "CISA adds a vulnerability in the n8n workflow automation platform to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-07-28 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 15, "resolution": "Resolved from the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog on 2026-10-30. Yes if any entry naming n8n carries a date-added inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 3 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-29", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-27_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-27_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog — is not met on or before 2026-10-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "OpenAI publishes a public incident report or postmortem covering the agent-related compromise reported on 2026-07-27, on or before 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 40, "resolution": "Resolved by checking the OpenAI official blog and security pages on 2026-09-30. Yes if a dated public writeup of that specific incident is present.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 16, 21 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-30", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-27_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-27_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — checking the OpenAI official blog and security pages — is not met on or before 2026-09-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports the same incident and the same investigation: \"Boss of startup hacked by rogue OpenAI agent urges ‘radical transparency’ in investigation\". Ruled across all 4 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "Labour leads Reform UK in at least two nationally published Great Britain voting-intention polls fielded entirely within September 2026.", "domain": "political", "probability": 55, "resolution": "Resolved on 2026-10-05 from the Wikipedia opinion polling page for the next UK general election. Yes if two or more qualifying September polls show a Labour lead.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 1 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-31", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-27_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-27_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — Resolved on 2026-10-05 from the Wikipedia opinion polling page for the next UK general election — is not met on or before 2026-10-05; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "The claim requires two or more qualifying September polls resolved from a named page; the priors carry one poll from an earlier month. The claim requires a numeric threshold no prior reports as reached. A prior that supplies the current level makes the gap measurable; it does not make the level deducible. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward ke", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The German federal government formally introduces draft legislation tightening extremism or hate-crime law in the Bundestag between 2026-07-28 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 30, "resolution": "Resolved from the Bundestag document register on 2026-11-30. Yes if a government bill on extremism or hate-crime law is registered inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-11-30", "citations": [ 14, 20 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-32", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-27_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-27_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — the Bundestag document register — is not met on or before 2026-11-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Same as KKR-20260727-19: the priors supply the government, the subject matter and the impulse. Ruled across all 4 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "A Meteo-France station records a maximum air temperature of 45.0 degrees Celsius or higher in metropolitan France between 2026-07-28 and 2026-09-15.", "domain": "disaster/infrastructure", "probability": 20, "resolution": "Resolved from Meteo-France published observations on 2026-09-15. Yes if any metropolitan station reports a daily maximum of 45.0 degrees Celsius or above.", "deadline": "2026-09-15", "citations": [ 8, 15 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-33", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-27_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-27_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — Meteo-France published observations — is not met on or before 2026-09-15; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 5 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "At least one person is formally charged with a homicide offense in connection with the 2026-07-26 Seattle festival shooting, on or before 2026-09-30.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 55, "resolution": "Resolved from King County Prosecuting Attorney charging documents or two major wire reports as of 2026-09-30. Yes if any homicide charge has been filed.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 3, 16 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-34", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-27_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-27_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — King County Prosecuting Attorney charging documents or two major wire reports as of 2026-09-30 — is not met on or before 2026-09-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports the same shooting: \"3 dead in mass shooting in Seattle\". Charging is the ordinary next stage. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "CXMT shares close below their first-trading-day closing price on 2026-09-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 65, "resolution": "Resolved from the listing exchange official closing price on 2026-09-30 compared with the first-trading-day close. Yes if the 2026-09-30 close is lower.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 6 ], "id": "KKR-20260727-35", "date_issued": "2026-07-27", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-27_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-27_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — the listing exchange official closing price on 2026-09-30 compared with the first-trading-day close — is not met on or before 2026-09-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The official death toll from the 2026-07-28 Kyushu earthquake exceeds 50 as reported on 2026-08-14.", "domain": "disaster/infrastructure", "probability": 25, "resolution": "Resolved from Japan Fire and Disaster Management Agency or Cabinet Office figures on 2026-08-14. Yes if the confirmed dead exceed 50.", "deadline": "2026-08-14", "citations": [ 1, 2, 3, 14, 15 ], "id": "KKR-20260728-01", "date_issued": "2026-07-28", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-28_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-28_1502.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] Japan Times dated Aug 8 2026, citing the Kumamoto prefectural disaster headquarters, put the toll from the Jul 28 Kumamoto quake at 39; earlier prefectural figures were 38 on Aug 3, and no source reports a toll above 40, let alone above 50, by Aug 14.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — Japan Fire and Disaster Management Agency or Cabinet Office figures — is not met on or before 2026-08-14; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "deducible from the cited report items", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Japan Times dated Aug 8 2026, citing the Kumamoto prefectural disaster headquarters, put the toll from the Jul 28 Kumamoto quake at 39; earlier prefectural figures were 38 on Aug 3, and no source reports a toll above 40, let alone above 50, by Aug 14." } }, { "statement": "The Nasdaq Composite closes below 23,000 on 2026-08-28.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "Resolved from the official Nasdaq closing value on 2026-08-28. Yes if the close is below 23,000.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 3, 8, 9, 16 ], "id": "KKR-20260728-02", "date_issued": "2026-07-28", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-28_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-28_1502.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] The Nasdaq Composite closed 26541.35 on 08-27 per CNBC market wrap; nothing approaching a 13 percent one-day collapse to sub-23000 occurred on 08-28, when markets were mixed ahead of Jackson Hole remarks.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — the official Nasdaq closing value — is not met on or before 2026-08-28; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "priors [3] and [8] give equity sentiment but no index level; prevailing Nasdaq is ordinary supplied knowledge, and a single-day close against a known level is a distributional read on a random walk, which is arithmetic", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The Nasdaq Composite closed 26541.35 on 08-27 per CNBC market wrap; nothing approaching a 13 percent one-day collapse to sub-23000 occurred on 08-28, when markets were mixed ahead of Jackson Hole remarks." } }, { "statement": "ICE Brent front-month crude futures settle below 80.00 US dollars per barrel on 2026-08-28.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 40, "resolution": "Resolved from the official ICE settlement for the front-month Brent contract on 2026-08-28. Yes if that settlement is below 80.00.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 20, 7 ], "id": "KKR-20260728-03", "date_issued": "2026-07-28", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-28_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-28_1502.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Brent settled near 90 dollars on 08-28 per oilprice.com and Fortune; a settlement below 80 did not occur.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — the official ICE settlement for the front-month Brent contract — is not met on or before 2026-08-28; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "cited items [7] and [20] are unrelated to oil pricing and the row states no reference level; a single-day settle below 80 is a distributional read from prevailing Brent, which is ordinary supplied knowledge", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Brent settled near 90 dollars on 08-28 per oilprice.com and Fortune; a settlement below 80 did not occur." } }, { "statement": "The upper bound of the US federal funds target range is above 3.75 percent on 2026-10-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 15, "resolution": "Resolved from the FOMC implementation note in effect on 2026-10-30. Yes if the upper bound exceeds 3.75 percent.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 7, 25 ], "id": "KKR-20260728-04", "date_issued": "2026-07-28", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-28_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-28_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — the FOMC implementation note in effect — is not met on or before 2026-10-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_superseded": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_corrected": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_correction": "CORRECTED from keyless. cite_integrity finds this entry UNSUPPORTED: none of its 2 cited item(s) shares discriminating vocabulary with the claim. A KEYLESS ruling asserts the entry went beyond its declared priors; where the priors ground nothing, there is no readable prior to have gone beyond and the assertion is unsupportable. The forecaster may have held the right item in view and cited badly - the record cannot say. 4.03 defaults KEYED where the determination cannot be made, and the determination doctrine's own rule requires taking the reading that does not inflate the faculty-bearing count. Keyed by rule, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_authority": "Ruled by the assistant at the operator's explicit delegation, under the determination doctrine of 2026-08-04 rev. 2. Recorded as the assistant's ruling, not the operator's." }, { "statement": "The United States and Iran announce a signed written agreement or framework between 2026-07-29 and 2026-09-15.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "Resolved yes if both governments confirm a written agreement or framework, or two or more of AP, Reuters and AFP report one as signed, by 2026-09-15.", "deadline": "2026-09-15", "citations": [ 8, 13, 20 ], "id": "KKR-20260728-05", "date_issued": "2026-07-28", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-28_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-28_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — Resolved yes if both governments confirm a written agreement or framework, or two or more of AP, Reuters and AFP report one as signed, by 2026-09-15 — is not met on or before 2026-09-15; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "At least one additional attack on a commercial vessel in the Red Sea or the Gulf is claimed by or attributed to Houthi forces between 2026-07-29 and 2026-09-15.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 78, "resolution": "Resolved from UKMTO or IMB incident reporting, or concurrent reporting by two major wires, as of 2026-09-15.", "deadline": "2026-09-15", "citations": [ 14 ], "id": "KKR-20260728-06", "date_issued": "2026-07-28", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-28_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-28_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — UKMTO or IMB incident reporting, or concurrent reporting by two major wires, as of 2026-09-15 — is not met on or before 2026-09-15; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports the same campaign: \"Will Pakistan intervene amid Houthi attacks on Saudi ships?\". Ruled across all 5 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "A US healthcare or medical-billing breach affecting more than 5,000,000 individuals is posted to the HHS breach portal between 2026-07-29 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 55, "resolution": "Resolved from the HHS Office for Civil Rights breach portal on 2026-10-30. Yes if any entry inside the window reports over 5,000,000 individuals affected.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 7 ], "id": "KKR-20260728-07", "date_issued": "2026-07-28", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-28_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-28_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — the HHS Office for Civil Rights breach portal — is not met on or before 2026-10-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports a breach affecting 1.26 million; the claim requires more than 5,000,000. The claim requires a numeric threshold no prior reports as reached. A prior that supplies the current level makes the gap measurable; it does not make the level deducible. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached ", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The Federal Communications Commission takes no formal action to revoke or deny renewal of an ABC-affiliated broadcast license on or before 2026-11-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 88, "resolution": "Resolved from the FCC daily digest and EDOCS on 2026-11-30. Yes if no revocation or renewal denial affecting an ABC affiliate has been adopted.", "deadline": "2026-11-30", "citations": [ 8 ], "id": "KKR-20260728-08", "date_issued": "2026-07-28", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-28_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-28_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — the FCC daily digest and EDOCS — is not met on or before 2026-11-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "At least one person is charged in connection with either shooting near the United States consulate in Toronto, on or before 2026-10-30.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 45, "resolution": "Resolved from Toronto Police Service releases or concurrent reporting by two major wires as of 2026-10-30. Yes if any charge has been laid for either incident.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 6, 9 ], "id": "KKR-20260728-09", "date_issued": "2026-07-28", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-28_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-28_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — Toronto Police Service releases or concurrent reporting by two major wires as of 2026-10-30 — is not met on or before 2026-10-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports the same shootings: \"Shots fired at US consulate in Toronto for a second [time]\". Ruled across all 8 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "EFFIS reports more than 100,000 hectares burned in France for calendar year 2026, as published on or before 2026-11-30.", "domain": "disaster/infrastructure", "probability": 40, "resolution": "Resolved from the EFFIS annual burnt-area statistics for France read on 2026-11-30. Yes if the cumulative figure exceeds 100,000 hectares.", "deadline": "2026-11-30", "citations": [ 4, 9, 10, 18, 24 ], "id": "KKR-20260728-10", "date_issued": "2026-07-28", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-28_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-28_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — the EFFIS annual burnt-area statistics for France read — is not met on or before 2026-11-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports roughly 300,000 acres burned across France AND Spain; the claim requires an EFFIS figure above 100,000 hectares for France alone. The claim requires a numeric threshold no prior reports as reached. A prior that supplies the current level makes the gap measurable; it does not make the level deducible. Ruled across all 8 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs ", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "On or before 2026-08-15, a coordinated cyberattack compromises at least 15 water utility systems in the United States, resulting in a public shutdown of operational control systems.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "At least 15 water utility systems in the U.S. report a confirmed public shutdown of operational control systems due to a cyberattack between 2026-08-05 and 2026-08-15, as verified by CISA or a major news outlet.", "deadline": "2026-08-15", "citations": [ 10, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 ], "id": "KKR-20260729-01", "date_issued": "2026-07-29", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-29_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-29_1502.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "HIT on substance: FBI/EPA PSA 30 Jul, utilities in at least seven states lost monitoring and control after PLC passwords and IPs were changed; Minnesota IT Services: 30+ community water systems hit 26-27 Jul, some switched to manual. Lockout of operational control at 30+ systems read as shutdown of operational control systems.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — At least 15 water utility systems in the U.S. report a confirmed public shutdown of operational control systems due to a cyberattack between 2026-08-05 and 2026-08-15, as verified by CISA or a major news outlet — is not met on or before 2026-08-15; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "deducible from the cited report items", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "operator", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "FBI/EPA PSA (July 30, 2026) and CISA alert (July 30, 2026) describe a campaign against water-sector PLCs since July 27 in at least seven states; ABC News and CBS News (Aug 4-5, 2026) put it at 12 states with more than 30 Minnesota systems hit on July 26-27 and Clayton County GA disrupted in July, and CBS reported some utilities forced to manual mode but no impact on drinking water; no CISA or major-outlet report enumerates 15 or more utilities with a confirmed shutdown of operational control systems dated inside 2026-08-05 to 2026-08-15." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-17, the S&P 500 index closes below 7,000 points for three consecutive trading days.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The S&P 500 closes below 7,000 on three consecutive trading days between 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-17, as reported by Bloomberg or Reuters.", "deadline": "2026-09-17", "citations": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 ], "id": "KKR-20260729-02", "date_issued": "2026-07-29", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-29_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-29_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — The S&P 500 closes below 7,000 on three consecutive trading days between 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-17, as reported by Bloomberg or Reuters — is not met on or before 2026-09-17; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "The strongest candidate behind this row’s citations concerns a Spanish heatwave. No prior names the S&P 500 or any index level. Ruled across all 8 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_superseded": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_corrected": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_correction": "CORRECTED from keyless. This entry cites 25 items - most of the record. A prior that excludes nothing cannot make a hit deducible, and cannot make it non-deducible either, so no keyless finding is available from it. 4.03 defaults KEYED where the determination cannot be made. Keyed by rule, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_authority": "Ruled by the assistant at the operator's explicit delegation, under the determination doctrine of 2026-08-04 rev. 2. Recorded as the assistant's ruling, not the operator's." }, { "statement": "On or before 2026-10-20, a major earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher strikes Japan, resulting in over 1,000 fatalities.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 15, "resolution": "A magnitude 7.0 or higher earthquake occurs in Japan and results in at least 1,000 confirmed fatalities, as reported by USGS and BBC World.", "deadline": "2026-10-20", "citations": [ 7, 11, 20, 21, 25 ], "id": "KKR-20260729-03", "date_issued": "2026-07-29", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-29_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-29_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — A magnitude 7.0 or higher earthquake occurs in Japan and results in at least 1,000 confirmed fatalities, as reported by USGS and BBC World — is not met on or before 2026-10-20; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports M6.8 at Uto; the claim requires M7.0 or higher with a casualty threshold. The claim requires a numeric threshold no prior reports as reached. A prior that supplies the current level makes the gap measurable; it does not make the level deducible. Ruled across all 6 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-11-05 and 2026-11-12, the U.S. Senate confirms a nominee to the Supreme Court who has previously served as a federal judge.", "domain": "political", "probability": 40, "resolution": "A nominee to the U.S. Supreme Court is confirmed by the Senate between 2026-11-05 and 2026-11-12, and the nominee has previously served as a federal judge.", "deadline": "2026-11-12", "citations": [ 16, 25 ], "id": "KKR-20260729-04", "date_issued": "2026-07-29", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-29_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-29_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — A nominee to the U.S. Supreme Court is confirmed by the Senate between 2026-11-05 and 2026-11-12, and the nominee has previously served as a federal judge — is not met on or before 2026-11-12; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 5 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-12-01 and 2026-12-08, Iran launches a missile or drone attack on a U.S. military base in the Middle East.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 20, "resolution": "Iran launches a missile or drone attack on a U.S. military base in the Middle East between 2026-12-01 and 2026-12-08, as confirmed by Al Jazeera or BBC World.", "deadline": "2026-12-08", "citations": [ 2, 4, 5, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 ], "id": "KKR-20260729-05", "date_issued": "2026-07-29", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-29_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-29_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — Iran launches a missile or drone attack on a U.S. military base in the Middle East between 2026-12-01 and 2026-12-08, as confirmed by Al Jazeera or BBC World — is not met on or before 2026-12-08; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports the same exchange in progress: \"Iran attacks now to send message as US assets build\". Ruled across all 8 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "On or before 2027-01-10, a major cyberattack on a U.S. state government results in the public exposure of more than 1 million personal records.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 35, "resolution": "A cyberattack on a U.S. state government leads to the public exposure of more than 1 million personal records between 2026-08-05 and 2027-01-10, as verified by CISA or a major news outlet.", "deadline": "2027-01-10", "citations": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 ], "id": "KKR-20260729-06", "date_issued": "2026-07-29", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-29_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-29_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — A cyberattack on a U.S. state government leads to the public exposure of more than 1 million personal records between 2026-08-05 and 2027-01-10, as verified by CISA or a major news outlet — is not met on or before 2027-01-10; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior is generic CISA advice on isolating systems during cyberattacks; no prior names a state government or an incident. Ruled across all 8 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_superseded": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_corrected": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_correction": "CORRECTED from keyless. This entry cites 25 items - most of the record. A prior that excludes nothing cannot make a hit deducible, and cannot make it non-deducible either, so no keyless finding is available from it. 4.03 defaults KEYED where the determination cannot be made. Keyed by rule, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_authority": "Ruled by the assistant at the operator's explicit delegation, under the determination doctrine of 2026-08-04 rev. 2. Recorded as the assistant's ruling, not the operator's." }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-20 and 2026-08-27, the U.S. dollar strengthens to a value of 1.08 against the euro.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The EUR/USD exchange rate falls to 1.08 or lower between 2026-08-20 and 2026-08-27, as reported by Bloomberg or Reuters.", "deadline": "2026-08-27", "citations": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 ], "id": "KKR-20260729-07", "date_issued": "2026-07-29", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-29_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-29_1502.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Daily mid-market EUR/USD ran 1.1652 to 1.1688 across 08-20 through 08-27 per MTFX historical table; Investing.com shows an August low of 1.1454.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — The EUR/USD exchange rate falls to 1.08 or lower between 2026-08-20 and 2026-08-27, as reported by Bloomberg or Reuters — is not met on or before 2026-08-27; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "twenty-five cited items carry no FX content and the resolution states no reference rate; ruled keyed on the conservative rule (4.03) because a citation dump does not establish what the forecaster held, and EUR/USD direction is ordinary supplied knowledge", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Daily mid-market EUR/USD ran 1.1652 to 1.1688 across 08-20 through 08-27 per MTFX historical table; Investing.com shows an August low of 1.1454." } }, { "statement": "On or before 2026-12-25, a new U.S. federal law is passed that mandates the use of SBOMs for all software used in critical infrastructure.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "A new U.S. federal law is enacted by December 25, 2026, requiring the use of Software Bill of Materials (SBOMs) for all software used in critical infrastructure, as confirmed by CISA or Congress.gov.", "deadline": "2026-12-25", "citations": [ 8, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 ], "id": "KKR-20260729-08", "date_issued": "2026-07-29", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-29_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-29_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — A new U.S. federal law is enacted by December 25, 2026, requiring the use of Software Bill of Materials (SBOMs) for all software used in critical infrastructure, as confirmed by CISA or Congress.gov — is not met on or before 2026-12-25; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior is CISA guidance on SBOM minimum elements. The claim requires a new federal LAW, a different actor and instrument entirely. Ruled across all 6 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-08, a U.S. presidential candidate announces a major policy shift on climate change during a national address.", "domain": "political", "probability": 45, "resolution": "A U.S. presidential candidate delivers a national address between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-08 that announces a major policy shift on climate change, as reported by CNN or The New York Times.", "deadline": "2026-09-08", "citations": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 ], "id": "KKR-20260729-09", "date_issued": "2026-07-29", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-29_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-29_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — A U.S. presidential candidate delivers a national address between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-08 that announces a major policy shift on climate change, as reported by CNN or The New York Times — is not met on or before 2026-09-08; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 8 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_superseded": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_corrected": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_correction": "CORRECTED from keyless. This entry cites 25 items - most of the record. A prior that excludes nothing cannot make a hit deducible, and cannot make it non-deducible either, so no keyless finding is available from it. 4.03 defaults KEYED where the determination cannot be made. Keyed by rule, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_authority": "Ruled by the assistant at the operator's explicit delegation, under the determination doctrine of 2026-08-04 rev. 2. Recorded as the assistant's ruling, not the operator's." }, { "statement": "Between 2026-10-15 and 2026-10-22, a major wildfire in California burns over 100,000 acres and causes at least 20 fatalities.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 20, "resolution": "A wildfire in California burns over 100,000 acres and causes at least 20 fatalities between 2026-10-15 and 2026-10-22, as confirmed by Cal Fire or BBC World.", "deadline": "2026-10-22", "citations": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 ], "id": "KKR-20260729-10", "date_issued": "2026-07-29", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-29_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-29_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — A wildfire in California burns over 100,000 acres and causes at least 20 fatalities between 2026-10-15 and 2026-10-22, as confirmed by Cal Fire or BBC World — is not met on or before 2026-10-22; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Priors report Spanish fires; the claim is scoped to California in late October with acreage and casualty thresholds. Ruled across all 8 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_superseded": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_corrected": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_correction": "CORRECTED from keyless. This entry cites 25 items - most of the record. A prior that excludes nothing cannot make a hit deducible, and cannot make it non-deducible either, so no keyless finding is available from it. 4.03 defaults KEYED where the determination cannot be made. Keyed by rule, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_authority": "Ruled by the assistant at the operator's explicit delegation, under the determination doctrine of 2026-08-04 rev. 2. Recorded as the assistant's ruling, not the operator's." }, { "statement": "CISA adds a Gitea remote-code-execution vulnerability to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-07-30 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 12, "resolution": "Resolved from the CISA KEV catalog JSON on 2026-10-30. Yes if any entry has vendorProject or product matching Gitea and dateAdded between 2026-07-30 and 2026-10-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 15 ], "id": "KKR-20260729-11", "date_issued": "2026-07-29", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-29_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-29_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — the CISA KEV catalog JSON — is not met on or before 2026-10-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 5 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "CISA adds a vBulletin vulnerability to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-07-30 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 20, "resolution": "Resolved from the CISA KEV catalog JSON on 2026-10-30. Yes if any entry has vendorProject or product matching vBulletin and dateAdded inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 22 ], "id": "KKR-20260729-12", "date_issued": "2026-07-29", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-29_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-29_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — the CISA KEV catalog JSON — is not met on or before 2026-10-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports the same flaw with a public exploit: \"vBulletin fixes critical pre-auth RCE flaw with public exploit\". Ruled across all 5 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "CISA publishes an advisory, alert or advisory update that explicitly names the Minnesota water utility intrusions, on or before 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 40, "resolution": "Resolved from the CISA cybersecurity advisories index on 2026-09-30. Yes if any item published after 2026-07-29 names Minnesota water utilities or that campaign.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 1, 4, 21 ], "id": "KKR-20260729-13", "date_issued": "2026-07-29", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-29_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-29_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — the CISA cybersecurity advisories index — is not met on or before 2026-09-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports the same targets: \"Hackers target over 30 Minnesota water utilities in coordinated OT [campaign]\". A CISA advisory naming them is the agency’s ordinary response. Ruled across all 8 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The official confirmed death toll from the 2026-07-28 Kyushu earthquake exceeds 100 as reported on 2026-08-31.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 18, "resolution": "Resolved from Japan Fire and Disaster Management Agency or Cabinet Office figures published on or before 2026-08-31. Yes if confirmed dead exceed 100.", "deadline": "2026-08-31", "citations": [ 1, 11, 20, 25 ], "id": "KKR-20260729-14", "date_issued": "2026-07-29", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-29_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-29_1502.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] The 07-28 Kumamoto (Kyushu) earthquake toll stood at 34 confirmed by 07-31 (AP, AJ, NPR) and rose only into the high 30s with heat-related disaster deaths by mid-August per Japanese reporting; nothing approaches 100 by 08-31.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — Japan Fire and Disaster Management Agency or Cabinet Office figures published on or before 2026-08-31 — is not met on or before 2026-08-31; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "prior [25] establishes an active rescue effort but carries no casualty figure; a threshold of 100 confirmed dead has no anchor in the declared priors", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The 07-28 Kumamoto (Kyushu) earthquake toll stood at 34 confirmed by 07-31 (AP, AJ, NPR) and rose only into the high 30s with heat-related disaster deaths by mid-August per Japanese reporting; nothing approaches 100 by 08-31." } }, { "statement": "USGS records at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or greater within 100 km of the 2026-07-28 Uto epicentre between 2026-07-30 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 45, "resolution": "Resolved from the USGS FDSN event query, radius 100 km on the Uto epicentre, minmagnitude 5.5, starttime 2026-07-30, endtime 2026-09-30. Yes if any event returns.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 7, 11 ], "id": "KKR-20260729-15", "date_issued": "2026-07-29", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-29_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-29_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — the USGS FDSN event query, radius 100 km on the Uto epicentre, minmagnitude 5.5, starttime 2026-07-30, endtime 2026-09-30 — is not met on or before 2026-09-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports the M6.8 Uto earthquake itself; aftershocks above M5.5 near that epicentre are the ordinary continuation of a sequence the priors supply. Ruled across all 6 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "GDACS issues a Red alert for any event located in Japan between 2026-07-30 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 14, "resolution": "Resolved from the GDACS alert feed on 2026-10-30. Yes if any event with country Japan carries alertlevel Red and a date inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 6, 7, 9 ], "id": "KKR-20260729-16", "date_issued": "2026-07-29", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-29_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-29_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — the GDACS alert feed — is not met on or before 2026-10-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior is a Green flood alert in Canada; the claim requires a GDACS Red alert in Japan. Wrong country and wrong level. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The United States 10-year Treasury par yield closes at or above 4.90 percent on at least one business day between 2026-07-30 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 22, "resolution": "Resolved from the Treasury daily par yield curve XML, field BC_10YEAR, on 2026-10-30. Yes if any business day in the window closed at or above 4.90.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 15 ], "id": "KKR-20260729-17", "date_issued": "2026-07-29", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-29_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-29_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — the Treasury daily par yield curve XML, field BC_10YEAR, — is not met on or before 2026-10-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 5 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_superseded": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_corrected": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_correction": "CORRECTED from keyless. cite_integrity finds this entry UNSUPPORTED: none of its 1 cited item(s) shares discriminating vocabulary with the claim. A KEYLESS ruling asserts the entry went beyond its declared priors; where the priors ground nothing, there is no readable prior to have gone beyond and the assertion is unsupportable. The forecaster may have held the right item in view and cited badly - the record cannot say. 4.03 defaults KEYED where the determination cannot be made, and the determination doctrine's own rule requires taking the reading that does not inflate the faculty-bearing count. Keyed by rule, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_authority": "Ruled by the assistant at the operator's explicit delegation, under the determination doctrine of 2026-08-04 rev. 2. Recorded as the assistant's ruling, not the operator's." }, { "statement": "The ECB main refinancing operations rate on 2026-10-30 is unchanged from its level on 2026-07-29.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 72, "resolution": "Resolved from the ECB Data Portal series FM.D.U2.EUR.4F.KR.MRR_FR.LEV on 2026-10-30. Yes if OBS_VALUE on that date equals the 2026-07-29 value.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 15 ], "id": "KKR-20260729-18", "date_issued": "2026-07-29", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-29_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-29_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — the ECB Data Portal series FM.D.U2.EUR.4F.KR.MRR_FR.LEV — is not met on or before 2026-10-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 5 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_superseded": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_corrected": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_correction": "CORRECTED from keyless. cite_integrity finds this entry UNSUPPORTED: none of its 1 cited item(s) shares discriminating vocabulary with the claim. A KEYLESS ruling asserts the entry went beyond its declared priors; where the priors ground nothing, there is no readable prior to have gone beyond and the assertion is unsupportable. The forecaster may have held the right item in view and cited badly - the record cannot say. 4.03 defaults KEYED where the determination cannot be made, and the determination doctrine's own rule requires taking the reading that does not inflate the faculty-bearing count. Keyed by rule, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_authority": "Ruled by the assistant at the operator's explicit delegation, under the determination doctrine of 2026-08-04 rev. 2. Recorded as the assistant's ruling, not the operator's." }, { "statement": "ICE Brent front-month crude settles at or above 100.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-07-30 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 33, "resolution": "Resolved from the official ICE Brent front-month settlement series read on 2026-09-30. Yes if any settlement in the window is at or above 100.00.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 4, 20 ], "id": "KKR-20260729-19", "date_issued": "2026-07-29", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-29_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-29_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — the official ICE Brent front-month settlement series read — is not met on or before 2026-09-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_superseded": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_corrected": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_correction": "CORRECTED from keyless. cite_integrity finds this entry UNSUPPORTED: none of its 2 cited item(s) shares discriminating vocabulary with the claim. A KEYLESS ruling asserts the entry went beyond its declared priors; where the priors ground nothing, there is no readable prior to have gone beyond and the assertion is unsupportable. The forecaster may have held the right item in view and cited badly - the record cannot say. 4.03 defaults KEYED where the determination cannot be made, and the determination doctrine's own rule requires taking the reading that does not inflate the faculty-bearing count. Keyed by rule, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_authority": "Ruled by the assistant at the operator's explicit delegation, under the determination doctrine of 2026-08-04 rev. 2. Recorded as the assistant's ruling, not the operator's." }, { "statement": "A United States sanctions action designating Iranian persons or entities is published in the Federal Register between 2026-07-30 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 55, "resolution": "Resolved from the Federal Register documents API on 2026-10-30, agency Treasury or State. Yes if any document published in the window designates Iranian persons or entities.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 4, 20 ], "id": "KKR-20260729-20", "date_issued": "2026-07-29", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-29_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-29_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — the Federal Register documents API on 2026-10-30, agency Treasury or State — is not met on or before 2026-10-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "id": "FS-20260730-01", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "deadline": "2026-12-31", "statement": "In the FogSim sealed campaign for scenario \"USA vs RUS - sourced personnel, illustrative\" (SIMULATED, seeded from the graded order of battle), the modal outcome across the declared run set is \"blue_holds\".", "resolution": "Resolved from the executed FogSim reveal for this scenario (fogsim_reveal_oob.json in this repository) read on 2026-12-31: YES if the most frequent outcome across revealed runs equals \"blue_holds\". This scores a MODEL, not a war.", "probability": 55, "failure_condition": "The modal revealed outcome is not \"blue_holds\" at the deadline; the run is a pure function of scenario, rules version and seed, so a miss is a fully re-executable fact. A model outcome is not a world outcome.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Sourced active-personnel strongly favors blue; SIMULATED model only, certifies nothing about real war.", "status": "open", "model": "fogsim/scenario", "resolved_date": null, "audit": null, "notes": "SIMULATED forecast; scenario seeded from board 2026-07-30T01:06:17Z", "sealed_at": "2026-07-30T01:44:20.888981+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8e6ab4b113d571e17ea905100b8bc41f79440b72cdc2ae9515b7908d06f11727", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "The Strait of Hormuz is closed to commercial shipping for 24 or more consecutive hours between 2026-07-31 and 2026-09-30, as reported by at least two of Reuters, the Associated Press and Lloyds List.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 15, "resolution": "Resolved on 2026-09-30 by searching Reuters, AP and Lloyds List archives: hit if at least two report a closure or halt of commercial transits lasting 24 or more hours dated in the window, miss otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 2, 12, 15, 19 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-01", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "No closure or halt of commercial Strait of Hormuz transits lasting 24 or more consecutive hours, dated 2026-07-31 through 2026-09-30, is reported by at least two of Reuters, AP and Lloyds List as read on 2026-09-30; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Operator searches three archives and judges whether reported disruption meets the 24-hour closure characterization.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.904593+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c9f48dd16257f6e7578bdcf36bcb08176c3eed715c60aea92ff021f0aec0b395", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "NATO invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty in response to the missile impact on Polish territory reported on 2026-07-30, with the invocation announced between 2026-07-31 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 8, "resolution": "Resolved on 2026-09-30: hit if NATO or the North Atlantic Council announces an Article 5 invocation tied to the Poland missile impact, per nato.int or two major wires, dated in the window; miss otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 1, 6, 11, 23 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-02", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "No Article 5 invocation tied to the 2026-07-30 Poland missile impact appears on nato.int or two major wires, dated in the window, as read on 2026-09-30; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "The tie between an invocation and this specific incident is an operator attribution judgment.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.904814+00:00", "seal_sha256": "39f82adde434b21b7568326c1b3421c484941c04ca611f8bae8af93bd5f771fd", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "The Federal Reserve announces a reduction of the federal funds target range at its September 2026 FOMC meeting, with the decision published between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 45, "resolution": "Resolved on 2026-09-30 from the FOMC statement at federalreserve.gov: hit if the September 2026 meeting statement announces a lower target range than the prior meeting, miss otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 13, 15, 24 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-03", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "The September 2026 FOMC statement at federalreserve.gov announces a target range equal to or higher than the prior meeting's, or no September statement exists by 2026-09-30; either reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Single named instrument; mechanical comparison of two published target ranges.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.904871+00:00", "seal_sha256": "68527e49a9072320a26773eb62ee198cecf717026d9040274d5e9cbb9a1dee2e", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "Situational Awareness LP or Leopold Aschenbrenner publicly announces that the fund is winding down, closing or returning external capital, between 2026-07-31 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "Resolved on 2026-10-30: hit if at least two of Bloomberg, CNBC, FT or Reuters report an announced wind-down, closure or return of external capital for the fund, dated in the window; miss otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 1 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-04", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "Fewer than two of Bloomberg, CNBC, FT and Reuters report an announced wind-down, closure or return of external capital for Situational Awareness LP dated in the window, as read on 2026-10-30; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Multi-outlet search plus operator characterization of what counts as a wind-down announcement.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.904908+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a812a80013adef844ef7c5e5ff86d6e924d57b7eb373d8a925b63bf85cea7878", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "CISA issues an Emergency Directive that names CVE-2026-20316, the Cisco Secure Firewall Management Center hard-coded credential vulnerability, between 2026-07-30 and 2026-08-21.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "Resolved on 2026-08-21 at the cisa.gov directives page: hit if an Emergency Directive issued in the window names CVE-2026-20316, miss otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-08-21", "citations": [ 12, 15 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-05", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] CISA handled CVE-2026-20316 through a Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog addition on July 29, 2026 under BOD 26-04 with an Aug 1 federal deadline (CISA alert July 29, 2026; The Hacker News July 2026; Help Net Security July 30, 2026), not an Emergency Directive; the CISA directives index as returned in search shows the most recent Emergency Directive dated Apr 23, 2026 and later entries only as Binding Operational Directives (June 10, 2026), with no ED issued between July 30 and Aug 21, 2026.", "failure_condition": "No Emergency Directive naming CVE-2026-20316 appears on the cisa.gov directives page with an issue date between 2026-07-30 and 2026-08-21, as read on 2026-08-21; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Single named page; presence of a named CVE string in an ED issued in-window is mechanical.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.904983+00:00", "seal_sha256": "29e940f9537d98e605f3269485de313180fd70153baca77678694503811186dd", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "CISA handled CVE-2026-20316 through a Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog addition on July 29, 2026 under BOD 26-04 with an Aug 1 federal deadline (CISA alert July 29, 2026; The Hacker News July 2026; Help Net Security July 30, 2026), not an Emergency Directive; the CISA directives index as returned in search shows the most recent Emergency Directive dated Apr 23, 2026 and later entries only as Binding Operational Directives (June 10, 2026), with no ED issued between July 30 and Aug 21, 2026." } }, { "statement": "The Pakistani armed forces or ISPR publicly announce a new named military operation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa or the former tribal districts between 2026-07-31 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 35, "resolution": "Resolved on 2026-10-30: hit if ISPR or the Pakistani government announces a named operation in those areas within the window, per two major wires or ispr.gov.pk; miss otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 3 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-06", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "No named military operation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa or the former tribal districts is announced by ISPR or the Pakistani government in the window, per ispr.gov.pk or two major wires, as read on 2026-10-30; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Operator judges what constitutes a new named operation in the specified areas across sources.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.905008+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ad9c21768a528b9a5f38b85465fc60df78ec1fb6a1e3ac281037c10ac1551f54", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "Hadi Matar is sentenced on his federal terrorism-related convictions between 2026-07-31 and 2027-01-26.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 70, "resolution": "Resolved on 2027-01-26: hit if at least two of AP, Reuters, BBC or Al Jazeera report a federal sentence imposed on Matar dated in the window, miss otherwise.", "deadline": "2027-01-26", "citations": [ 4 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-07", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "Fewer than two of AP, Reuters, BBC and Al Jazeera report a federal sentence imposed on Hadi Matar dated 2026-07-31 through 2027-01-26, as read on 2027-01-26; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Two-wire confirmation requires operator search and reading of sentencing coverage.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.905032+00:00", "seal_sha256": "12acf613cfa6146a663ec91b8adf1ad70a720b1ae49c8c1d6d867e6befdff6c1", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "The government of Cameroon officially announces the death or the resignation of President Paul Biya between 2026-07-31 and 2027-01-26.", "domain": "political", "probability": 30, "resolution": "Resolved on 2027-01-26: hit if an official Cameroonian government announcement of Biya death or resignation, reported by at least two major international wires, is dated in the window; miss otherwise.", "deadline": "2027-01-26", "citations": [ 10 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-08", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "No official Cameroonian government announcement of President Biya's death or resignation, carried by at least two major international wires and dated in the window, exists as read on 2027-01-26; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Operator reads whether an announcement is official and government-sourced across wires.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.905056+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8be96930f1de79bde58084e9794db55a51a747c835defdaaf992d17b78fc071d", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "Ugandan authorities release Kizza Besigye from detention, including any transfer to house arrest or medical release abroad, between 2026-07-31 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "Resolved on 2026-09-30: hit if at least two of BBC, Al Jazeera, Reuters or AP report Besigye released from detention in the window, miss otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 9, 16 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-09", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "Fewer than two of BBC, Al Jazeera, Reuters and AP report Kizza Besigye released from detention (including house arrest or medical release abroad) dated in the window, as read on 2026-09-30; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Release-status characterization across outlets is an operator reading.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.905080+00:00", "seal_sha256": "149cac2b276388dde4149058187a6f9c33ef8e6014636de4cdbabe4d606f1e63", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "The confirmed death toll of firefighters in the 2026 Crete wildfires reaches five or more between 2026-07-31 and 2026-08-31.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 25, "resolution": "Resolved on 2026-08-31: hit if at least two of BBC, Guardian, DW or Reuters report five or more firefighter deaths attributed to the Crete fires, miss otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-08-31", "citations": [ 5, 11 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-10", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Crete-attributed firefighter deaths total two (Rethymno, 07-29, per Guardian, DW, Euronews, PBS), with a third firefighter killed the same day in the Peloponnese and two aircrew killed near Athens 08-02 in separate fires; no outlet reports five or more deaths attributed to the Crete fires by 08-31.", "failure_condition": "Fewer than two of BBC, Guardian, DW and Reuters report a confirmed firefighter death toll of five or more attributed to the 2026 Crete wildfires, dated in the window, as read on 2026-08-31; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Numeric threshold but resolved by reading attribution in multi-outlet casualty reporting.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.905108+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0dd252b69066a355727eb560542eca8dd3c1611f6c8172bbd5914ca4d178b9b3", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Crete-attributed firefighter deaths total two (Rethymno, 07-29, per Guardian, DW, Euronews, PBS), with a third firefighter killed the same day in the Peloponnese and two aircrew killed near Athens 08-02 in separate fires; no outlet reports five or more deaths attributed to the Crete fires by 08-31." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-06 and 2026-09-30, US Central Command or the Department of Defense publicly confirms at least one new military strike on targets inside Iranian territory.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 85, "resolution": "True if an official US military or DoD statement, carried by two or more major outlets, confirms a strike inside Iran occurring between 2026-08-06 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 2, 15, 19 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-11", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "No official US military or DoD statement confirming a new strike inside Iranian territory occurring 2026-08-06 through 2026-09-30 is carried by two or more major outlets, as read on 2026-09-30; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Operator confirms official sourcing and two-outlet carriage of a qualifying strike.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.905130+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f90b6da9186a73b6ed3e272dc92dc49bcfba5cb3deb82ddc4e22d35380def045", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "Front-month Brent crude futures settle above 100.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 38, "resolution": "True if ICE front-month Brent settlement exceeds 100.00 dollars on any session from 2026-08-06 through 2026-10-30, per exchange or major financial press data.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 12, 15, 19 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-12", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "No ICE front-month Brent settlement exceeds 100.00 USD on any session 2026-08-06 through 2026-10-30, per exchange or major financial press settlement data as read on 2026-10-30; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Named exchange settlement series against a fixed numeric threshold; mechanical.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.905154+00:00", "seal_sha256": "763786033e6eb17da75bd3b4de7202d778f2358767d5a4d257b874cff61a4b3d", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "NATO holds a formal Article 4 consultation at the request of a member state between 2026-08-06 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "True if NATO or a member government publicly confirms an Article 4 consultation held between 2026-08-06 and 2026-09-30. Routine North Atlantic Council statements do not resolve this true.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 1, 6, 11, 23 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-13", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "No formal Article 4 consultation requested by a member state and held 2026-08-06 through 2026-09-30 is publicly confirmed by NATO or a member government, as read on 2026-09-30 - routine North Atlantic Council statements not qualifying; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "The criterion's own routine-statement exclusion is an operator judgment key.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.905178+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f4219d76b597c5a26cf2eb8ed4485a56ce6440bd4f7941b4ea5f788084d2aa63", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "The Nasdaq Composite closes below 22,485 on at least one trading day between 2026-08-06 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 30, "resolution": "True if the official Nasdaq Composite close is below 22,485 on any session from 2026-08-06 through 2026-11-30, per exchange or major financial press data.", "deadline": "2026-11-30", "citations": [ 2, 12, 22 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-14", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "The official Nasdaq Composite close is 22,485 or higher on every session 2026-08-06 through 2026-11-30, per exchange or major financial press data as read on 2026-11-30; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Named index official close against a fixed numeric threshold; mechanical.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.905202+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1d6107fd157ca0f8c21c26c8efb4c97dd86b9d88bfb2f6689c540e84e84184e1", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "Public reporting attributes exploitation of Cisco CVE-2026-20316 to a specifically named nation-state actor or tracked threat group between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 45, "resolution": "True if a report from Cisco Talos, CISA, or a major security vendor published between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-30 names a specific state actor or tracked group exploiting CVE-2026-20316.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 12, 15 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-15", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "No report from Cisco Talos, CISA, or a major security vendor published 2026-08-06 through 2026-10-30 names a specific state actor or tracked group exploiting CVE-2026-20316, as read on 2026-10-30; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Operator judges whether attribution names a specific tracked actor versus generic activity.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.905225+00:00", "seal_sha256": "cbf3c71a2aceaf150d57c84496e871a2c5adb5c70e8d07a42aeeb64b21732c05", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "All commercial shipping transits of the Strait of Hormuz halt for at least 72 consecutive hours between 2026-08-06 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 8, "resolution": "True if Lloyds List, the IMO, or the US Navy publicly confirm zero commercial transits of the strait across 72 consecutive hours falling between 2026-08-06 and 2026-11-30.", "deadline": "2026-11-30", "citations": [ 2, 12 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-16", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "No public confirmation by Lloyds List, the IMO, or the US Navy of zero commercial Strait of Hormuz transits across 72 consecutive hours falling 2026-08-06 through 2026-11-30 exists as read on 2026-11-30; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Operator reads whether a named authority's statement amounts to confirmation of a 72-hour total halt.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.905248+00:00", "seal_sha256": "089345c792da65ddee3226b81691c40ccac382be9487f9e2a31f2cb62fb81850", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "The Federal Open Market Committee announces a reduction in the federal funds target range at a scheduled meeting held between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 55, "resolution": "True if an FOMC statement issued between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-30 announces a lower target range for the federal funds rate.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 13, 15, 24 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-17", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "No FOMC statement issued 2026-08-06 through 2026-10-30 announces a lower federal funds target range, as read at federalreserve.gov on 2026-10-30; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Single named instrument; mechanical comparison of announced target ranges.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.905272+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2c782c4ebfc16c6ba15dedfa1d320c547b6c99b7f22ac6261d8cfeba0cf8ac59", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "The US Senate confirms Todd Blanche as Attorney General between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 45, "resolution": "True if the Senate record shows a successful confirmation vote seating Todd Blanche as Attorney General between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 6, 25 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-18", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "The Senate record shows no successful confirmation vote seating Todd Blanche as Attorney General between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-30, as read on 2026-10-30; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Senate roll-call record is a single mechanical public instrument.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.905294+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9c296bc54764644f81adf6d6c5cb2b23cb78125114b036ec29a4eab02f5ffe34", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "The confirmed death toll from the magnitude 6.8 Uto, Japan earthquake reaches 50 or more between 2026-08-06 and 2026-08-31.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 22, "resolution": "True if Japanese government or major wire reporting between 2026-08-06 and 2026-08-31 states a confirmed death toll of at least 50 from that earthquake.", "deadline": "2026-08-31", "citations": [ 2, 17, 20 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-19", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] The Uto-epicentered quake is the same 07-28 Kumamoto event; its toll reached the mid-to-high 30s including disaster-related deaths by mid-August (Kyodo, Reuters-JP via Wikipedia sourcing), never approaching 50 by 08-31.", "failure_condition": "Japanese government or major wire reporting dated 2026-08-06 through 2026-08-31 states no confirmed death toll of 50 or more from the magnitude 6.8 Uto earthquake, as read on 2026-08-31; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Toll confirmation and attribution read from official and wire reporting.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.905318+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4f039fc45f56d8614aaa18ff8b29e9e731bd675c53e8494aa1b17d78fe7230da", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The Uto-epicentered quake is the same 07-28 Kumamoto event; its toll reached the mid-to-high 30s including disaster-related deaths by mid-August (Kyodo, Reuters-JP via Wikipedia sourcing), never approaching 50 by 08-31." } }, { "statement": "A single attack in Pakistan kills at least 10 police or military personnel between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 72, "resolution": "True if credible international reporting confirms one attack in Pakistan between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-30 killing 10 or more police or military personnel.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 3 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-20", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "No single attack in Pakistan killing 10 or more police or military personnel between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-30 is confirmed by credible international reporting, as read on 2026-10-30; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Single-attack scoping and credibility of reporting are operator judgments.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.905342+00:00", "seal_sha256": "60c546a3e3f9522f3564d978b66618484fd054296973cce4fbb7741701a7e4fe", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "The United States military will conduct at least one additional publicly reported airstrike on targets inside Iranian territory between 2026-07-30 and 2026-08-13.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 85, "resolution": "True if U.S. Central Command, the Pentagon, or a major wire service (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera) reports a new U.S. strike on Iranian soil between 2026-07-30 and 2026-08-13; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-08-13", "citations": [ 2, 15, 19 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-21", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] A GlobalSecurity daily log dated Aug 12 2026 states no US or Israeli strike inside Iran was confirmed by CENTCOM from the cancellation of a threatened campaign late Aug 1 through Aug 12, a thirteenth consecutive quiet night; the last CENTCOM-confirmed strike wave on Iran completed Jul 29, one day before this window opened.", "failure_condition": "No new U.S. strike on Iranian soil between 2026-07-30 and 2026-08-13 is reported by U.S. Central Command, the Pentagon, or a major wire service (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera), as read on 2026-08-13; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Operator reads official and wire coverage for a qualifying new strike.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.905368+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6b7725f86376e682f6ed9aca6d5cc8ce25d00c3e8bddfb04c80b019cfad715ab", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "A GlobalSecurity daily log dated Aug 12 2026 states no US or Israeli strike inside Iran was confirmed by CENTCOM from the cancellation of a threatened campaign late Aug 1 through Aug 12, a thirteenth consecutive quiet night; the last CENTCOM-confirmed strike wave on Iran completed Jul 29, one day before this window opened." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-07-30 and 2026-08-20, NATO will hold or announce formal Article 4 consultations in response to the reported Russian missile breach of Polish airspace.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 22, "resolution": "True if NATO, a NATO member government, Reuters, or AP reports that Article 4 consultations were formally requested or held over this specific incident between 2026-07-30 and 2026-08-20; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-08-20", "citations": [ 1, 6, 11, 23 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-22", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] CNN (July 30, 2026) reported a NATO official saying there were no current plans to invoke Article 4 over the Kh-101 missile that crashed near Tarnawa-Kolonia, and UK Defence Journal (July 30, 2026) reported Tusk saying Poland had not invoked Article 4 while the investigation continued; NATO Secretary-General Rutte issued a solidarity statement on X but no NATO, Polish government, Reuters or AP report of Article 4 consultations being requested or held over this incident between July 30 and Aug 20, 2026 was found.", "failure_condition": "No report by NATO, a NATO member government, Reuters, or AP that Article 4 consultations were formally requested or held over the reported Russian missile breach of Polish airspace, dated 2026-07-30 through 2026-08-20, exists as read on 2026-08-20; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Incident-specific linkage of consultations to this breach is an operator judgment.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.905392+00:00", "seal_sha256": "70259033db4351dcd8da114a36b8e33061823ef924f14dc4ba2a3ca4c1e282f7", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "CNN (July 30, 2026) reported a NATO official saying there were no current plans to invoke Article 4 over the Kh-101 missile that crashed near Tarnawa-Kolonia, and UK Defence Journal (July 30, 2026) reported Tusk saying Poland had not invoked Article 4 while the investigation continued; NATO Secretary-General Rutte issued a solidarity statement on X but no NATO, Polish government, Reuters or AP report of Article 4 consultations being requested or held over this incident between July 30 and Aug 20, 2026 was found." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-07-30 and 2026-08-27, at least one additional commercial or military vessel will be struck by a drone, missile, or mine in the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz, or eastern Mediterranean in connection with the Iran conflict.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 55, "resolution": "True if a major wire service (Reuters, AP) or Lloyds List reports a new vessel strike in these waters tied to the Iran conflict between 2026-07-30 and 2026-08-27; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-08-27", "citations": [ 2, 12, 15, 19 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-23", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] CNBC headline dated 2026-08-27 reported the Qatari PM traveling to Iran to de-escalate tensions amid a Strait of Hormuz tanker attack, placing a vessel strike tied to the Iran conflict inside the 07-30 to 08-27 window.", "failure_condition": "No new strike on a commercial or military vessel in the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz, or eastern Mediterranean tied to the Iran conflict is reported by Reuters, AP, or Lloyds List dated 2026-07-30 through 2026-08-27, as read on 2026-08-27; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "The connection-to-conflict qualifier is an explicit operator attribution key.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.905416+00:00", "seal_sha256": "507512327333a78cb96298684f36262a8d2eead201c07cf104b955f4efdacb27", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "CNBC headline dated 2026-08-27 reported the Qatari PM traveling to Iran to de-escalate tensions amid a Strait of Hormuz tanker attack, placing a vessel strike tied to the Iran conflict inside the 07-30 to 08-27 window." } }, { "statement": "The confirmed death toll from the magnitude 6.8 Uto, Japan earthquake will exceed 40 between 2026-07-30 and 2026-08-14.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 35, "resolution": "True if Japanese government authorities, NHK, or a major wire service reports a confirmed death toll above 40 for this earthquake between 2026-07-30 and 2026-08-14; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-08-14", "citations": [ 2, 17, 20 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-24", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] Japan Times dated Aug 8 2026 reports 39 dead in the M6.8 Uto-Kumamoto earthquake per prefectural authorities, including direct and disaster-related deaths; no Japanese government, NHK or wire report above 40 was found through Aug 14.", "failure_condition": "No report by Japanese government authorities, NHK, or a major wire service dated 2026-07-30 through 2026-08-14 states a confirmed death toll above 40 for the magnitude 6.8 Uto earthquake, as read on 2026-08-14; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Toll confirmation read from official and wire reporting.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.905550+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4a099d46a086bda30d600cf47bbecbe80be663dbcafbaa1fe4f265734d7456b8", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Japan Times dated Aug 8 2026 reports 39 dead in the M6.8 Uto-Kumamoto earthquake per prefectural authorities, including direct and disaster-related deaths; no Japanese government, NHK or wire report above 40 was found through Aug 14." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-07-30 and 2026-09-15, a U.S. federal agency or critical-infrastructure operator will be publicly confirmed as compromised via the Cisco Secure Firewall Management Center hard-coded credential flaw CVE-2026-20316.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 18, "resolution": "True if CISA, a federal agency, or a major outlet (Reuters, Hacker News, BleepingComputer) confirms a specific victim compromised through CVE-2026-20316 between 2026-07-30 and 2026-09-15; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-09-15", "citations": [ 12, 15 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-25", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "No confirmation by CISA, a federal agency, or a major outlet (Reuters, The Hacker News, BleepingComputer) of a specific U.S. federal agency or critical-infrastructure victim compromised through CVE-2026-20316, dated 2026-07-30 through 2026-09-15, exists as read on 2026-09-15; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Victim-specificity and compromise attribution are operator readings of disclosure language.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.905621+00:00", "seal_sha256": "236b7cb09882403f6cdc223b280f1e4fec21c485309eaf13389048f3353c9260", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "Meta Platforms stock will close lower than its 2026-07-30 closing price at least once more between 2026-07-31 and 2026-08-06.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 58, "resolution": "True if Meta Platforms common stock records at least one additional daily close below its 2026-07-30 close on any trading day between 2026-07-31 and 2026-08-06; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-08-06", "citations": [ 2, 22 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-26", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-07", "notes": "[jury] CNBC dated 2026-07-30 reports Meta fell roughly 8 to 9 percent in the 2026-07-30 session from a 2026-07-29 close of 585.61 per TradingKey, putting the reference close near 533 to 536. TradingKey dated 2026-07-31 reports META closed up 3.52 percent on 2026-07-31, and quote pages show closes of about 588.77 on 2026-08-04, 589.90 on 2026-08-05 per CNBC and Google Finance, and 587.69 on 2026-08-06 per Google Finance, all well above the reference.", "failure_condition": "Meta Platforms common stock records no daily close below its 2026-07-30 close on any trading day 2026-07-31 through 2026-08-06, per official exchange closing data as read on 2026-08-06; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Official closing-price series against a fixed reference close; mechanical.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.905658+00:00", "seal_sha256": "63c4d7acc2c97a0a946ccea37cab1874f9fa33c30946472c68be7f430f7bcce0", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "e5a455ef443bcd9fa793de281b47273bc9b857ac4c4bcd5f305bcefba04e9ddf", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "HIT" }, "evidence": "CNBC dated 2026-07-30 reports Meta fell roughly 8 to 9 percent in the 2026-07-30 session from a 2026-07-29 close of 585.61 per TradingKey, putting the reference close near 533 to 536. TradingKey dated 2026-07-31 reports META closed up 3.52 percent on 2026-07-31, and quote pages show closes of about 588.77 on 2026-08-04, 589.90 on 2026-08-05 per CNBC and Google Finance, and 587.69 on 2026-08-06 per Google Finance, all well above the reference." } }, { "statement": "The U.S. Senate will vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General between 2026-07-30 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 25, "resolution": "True if the U.S. Senate holds a floor vote confirming Todd Blanche as Attorney General, as reported by a major outlet, between 2026-07-30 and 2026-09-30; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 25 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-27", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "No Senate floor vote confirming Todd Blanche as Attorney General between 2026-07-30 and 2026-09-30 is reported by a major outlet, as read on 2026-09-30; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Resolution basis names outlet reporting rather than the Senate record; operator reads coverage.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.905688+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e49185b7c0657d64f66426772388399b72dde287d64ffeb29b003d06e232a5f9", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "A militant group will publicly claim responsibility for the attack on the northwest Pakistan police post that killed 11 officers, between 2026-07-30 and 2026-08-13.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 68, "resolution": "True if a group such as Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan or an affiliate issues a public claim of responsibility reported by a major outlet between 2026-07-30 and 2026-08-13; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-08-13", "citations": [ 3 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-28", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] Kurdistan24 and Bol News reported that Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan claimed responsibility for the Khazina Banda police post attack in Hangu via a video statement circulated on social media within days of the assault; Pakistani police attributed the attack to the banned group officials label Khawarij, the state term for TTP.", "failure_condition": "No public claim of responsibility for the northwest Pakistan police-post attack that killed 11 officers, issued by a militant group and reported by a major outlet dated 2026-07-30 through 2026-08-13, exists as read on 2026-08-13; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Claim authenticity and incident linkage are operator readings of coverage.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.905712+00:00", "seal_sha256": "68f40c160e226e1ad5c16b28522cb91b6031845822c1ed09854ed4275073b2ec", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Kurdistan24 and Bol News reported that Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan claimed responsibility for the Khazina Banda police post attack in Hangu via a video statement circulated on social media within days of the assault; Pakistani police attributed the attack to the banned group officials label Khawarij, the state term for TTP." } }, { "statement": "Confirmed fatalities from the current Crete, Greece wildfire event will exceed 5 between 2026-07-30 and 2026-08-20.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 28, "resolution": "True if Greek civil protection authorities or a major wire service reports more than 5 confirmed deaths from this wildfire event between 2026-07-30 and 2026-08-20; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-08-20", "citations": [ 5, 11 ], "id": "KKR-20260730-29", "date_issued": "2026-07-30", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-30_1503.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-30_1503.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] AP via PBS News (July 30, 2026) and Balkan Insight (July 29, 2026) reported two firefighters killed in the Krya Vrysi/Rethymno wildfire on Crete; Balkan Insight (Aug 3, 2026) restated that two firefighters died on Crete on July 30, and the Wego tracker (Aug 7, 2026) and Mappr (Aug 2026) show no further Crete fatalities as the fire eased and evacuees returned; no Greek civil protection or wire report of more than five confirmed deaths from the Crete event was found.", "failure_condition": "No report by Greek civil protection authorities or a major wire service dated 2026-07-30 through 2026-08-20 states more than 5 confirmed deaths from the current Crete wildfire event, as read on 2026-08-20; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Event scoping and toll confirmation read from official and wire reporting.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T05:36:21.905736+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9b5ef66ed2203cdf7a5c9c8580c4816efeedd803dace6e46307087c8b0ba5000", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "AP via PBS News (July 30, 2026) and Balkan Insight (July 29, 2026) reported two firefighters killed in the Krya Vrysi/Rethymno wildfire on Crete; Balkan Insight (Aug 3, 2026) restated that two firefighters died on Crete on July 30, and the Wego tracker (Aug 7, 2026) and Mappr (Aug 2026) show no further Crete fatalities as the fire eased and evacuees returned; no Greek civil protection or wire report of more than five confirmed deaths from the Crete event was found." } }, { "statement": "ICE Brent front-month crude futures settle at or above 95.00 USD per barrel on at least one weekday between 2026-08-07 and 2026-09-11 amid Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz", "domain": "economic", "probability": 40, "resolution": "ICE Brent front-month official settlement price is 95.00 USD or higher on any weekday between 2026-08-07 and 2026-09-11, per exchange data or major financial press", "deadline": "2026-09-11", "citations": [ 11, 8, 24 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-01", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "No ICE Brent front-month settlement of 95.00 USD or higher occurs on any weekday 2026-08-07 through 2026-09-11, per exchange or major financial press settlement data as read on 2026-09-11; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Named exchange settlement series against a fixed numeric threshold; mechanical.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:17:09.304670+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0f36c3d69b6710bb38cc046324b2968d3a0517c243d9e9570f4ee8cf82b038b6", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "The September 2026 FOMC statement announces a federal funds target range higher than the July 2026 range, following three July dissents in favor of an increase", "domain": "economic", "probability": 22, "resolution": "The FOMC statement published at federalreserve.gov on or before 2026-09-30 announces a target range above the range set at the July 2026 meeting", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 6, 16 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-02", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "No FOMC statement dated on or before 2026-09-30 at federalreserve.gov announces a target range higher than the July 2026 range; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Single named instrument; mechanical comparison of two published target ranges.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:17:09.304881+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1747c0e7fbf88f7fa1e512bb35857b36517ebbea156e59de8178721f4feb465d", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "Kalshi publicly announces suspension or geographic restriction of its prediction market services for New York users between 2026-08-07 and 2026-11-30 following the New York lawsuit", "domain": "economic", "probability": 20, "resolution": "A Kalshi company statement or reports by two major outlets confirm suspension or geo-restriction of Kalshi services for New York users dated between 2026-08-07 and 2026-11-30", "deadline": "2026-11-30", "citations": [ 4 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-03", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "No Kalshi company statement and no two-outlet reporting dated 2026-08-07 through 2026-11-30 confirms suspension or geographic restriction of Kalshi services for New York users, as read on 2026-11-30; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Operator reads company statements and coverage to judge what constitutes suspension or restriction.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:17:09.304935+00:00", "seal_sha256": "85b4dd369653aec3f305d4e07f7b38539f97c117075c95d28600c4139c1ab2b1", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "CISA adds the JetBrains TeamCity remote code execution vulnerability disclosed in late July 2026 to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-08-07 and 2026-09-15", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 45, "resolution": "The cisa.gov KEV catalog lists the late July 2026 JetBrains TeamCity RCE vulnerability with a date-added between 2026-08-07 and 2026-09-15", "deadline": "2026-09-15", "citations": [ 9 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-04", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "The cisa.gov KEV catalog shows no JetBrains TeamCity entry with a date-added between 2026-08-07 and 2026-09-15 corresponding to the late July 2026 RCE, as read on 2026-09-15; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Named government catalog page; presence of a dated entry is mechanical.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:17:09.304969+00:00", "seal_sha256": "16b0702aa87ddb7695f55bb91e64a1e64e76e2da636e8232810a4da5e9823655", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "A major security vendor publicly attributes at least one new npm package compromise, distinct from the Debug and Chalk incidents, to North Korean actors between 2026-08-07 and 2026-10-15", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 70, "resolution": "The Hacker News or BleepingComputer report a named security vendor attributing a new npm package compromise to DPRK-linked actors, dated between 2026-08-07 and 2026-10-15", "deadline": "2026-10-15", "citations": [ 10, 11 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-05", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "No report at The Hacker News or BleepingComputer dated 2026-08-07 through 2026-10-15 attributes a new npm package compromise beyond Debug and Chalk to DPRK-linked actors, as read on 2026-10-15; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Operator reads vendor attribution language and judges distinctness from the named prior incidents.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:17:09.304997+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c7ff4e3e853b02ed4fba45fe5836632c2050a7b234939f4b0adfa2b63efc1a0c", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "A first physical handover of Hamas weapons under the Gaza Board of Peace disarmament agreement is publicly confirmed between 2026-08-07 and 2026-09-15", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "At least two of Reuters, AP, BBC, or Al Jazeera report a completed initial weapons handover by Hamas under the disarmament agreement, dated between 2026-08-07 and 2026-09-15", "deadline": "2026-09-15", "citations": [ 4, 16 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-06", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "Fewer than two of Reuters, AP, BBC and Al Jazeera report a completed initial Hamas weapons handover under the agreement dated 2026-08-07 through 2026-09-15, as read on 2026-09-15; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Two-wire confirmation requires operator search and a completedness judgment on handover reporting.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:17:09.305022+00:00", "seal_sha256": "be582cfaa91efa045a488e96d80d92bfb99b75217bfb73445dd1cf63603560a5", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "Saudi Arabia publicly confirms conducting new airstrikes inside Yemen between 2026-08-07 and 2026-10-15, breaking the post-2022 pattern of relative calm with the Houthis", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 25, "resolution": "An official Saudi government or coalition statement confirming new airstrikes in Yemen in the window is reported by at least two major outlets between 2026-08-07 and 2026-10-15", "deadline": "2026-10-15", "citations": [ 17 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-07", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "No official Saudi or coalition confirmation of new airstrikes inside Yemen dated 2026-08-07 through 2026-10-15 is carried by at least two major outlets, as read on 2026-10-15; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Operator judges whether statements amount to official confirmation of new strikes in the window.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:17:09.305047+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d13ae2814529ed70dbf8bb4fd54f33f73219d76c115b2798d336a255d3fb14e0", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "FIFA publicly suspends or withdraws the World Cup stake-sale investment plan between 2026-08-07 and 2026-10-30 amid UEFA opposition and senior adviser resignations", "domain": "political", "probability": 30, "resolution": "Two of Reuters, AP, BBC, or the Guardian report FIFA suspending or withdrawing the World Cup investment or stake-sale plan, dated between 2026-08-07 and 2026-10-30", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 13, 14, 20 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-08", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "Fewer than two of Reuters, AP, BBC and the Guardian report FIFA suspending or withdrawing the plan dated 2026-08-07 through 2026-10-30, as read on 2026-10-30; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Two-outlet reading with an operator judgment on suspension versus amendment.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:17:09.305070+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8acad5a190c1f2aab71b65bb8d759fb07ce5802f39aa793e384344fa959b4e1d", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "At least one EU member state formally notifies temporary internal border controls citing the Ceuta migration surge between 2026-08-07 and 2026-09-15", "domain": "political", "probability": 40, "resolution": "A European Commission border-control notification record or reports by two major outlets confirm a member state reintroducing internal border checks citing the Ceuta influx, dated in the window", "deadline": "2026-09-15", "citations": [ 1, 5, 9 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-09", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "No Commission notification record and no two-outlet reporting dated 2026-08-07 through 2026-09-15 confirms a member state reintroducing internal border checks citing the Ceuta influx, as read on 2026-09-15; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Operator reads notification records and coverage for the citing-Ceuta linkage.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:17:09.305094+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d31e9f3b72e296c0039873d0bc44dfdadbacc6987b2a27caccefd7eaae197e2a", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "The mayor of St Paul, Minnesota resigns or announces resignation between 2026-08-07 and 2026-10-30 following sexual harassment allegations by two police officials", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 25, "resolution": "Two major outlets or an official city statement report the St Paul mayor resigning or announcing resignation, dated between 2026-08-07 and 2026-10-30", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 8 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-10", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "No official city statement and no two-outlet reporting dated 2026-08-07 through 2026-10-30 confirms the St Paul mayor resigning or announcing resignation, as read on 2026-10-30; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Operator reads coverage to distinguish resignation from other departures or leave.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:17:09.305117+00:00", "seal_sha256": "96c06619217212f6e6caa4583e4171631540d0c583470985af74ae45e586a351", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-07-31 and 2026-08-31, the Hamas disarmament agreement announced by the Gaza Board of Peace will produce a verified weapons handover or destruction event under third-party or press observation.", "domain": "political", "probability": 32, "resolution": "True if the Gaza Board of Peace or a major wire service (Reuters, AP, Al Jazeera, BBC) reports a verified Hamas weapons handover or destruction event under this agreement between 2026-07-31 and 2026-08-31; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-08-31", "citations": [ 7, 18 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-11", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Hamas disarmament remained the central unresolved dispute all window: AP via PBS 08-19 shows Hamas attacking the Board of Peace as cover for Israeli escalation, and Gaza-war summaries state the phased plan is paralyzed over Hamas not disarming; no verified weapons handover or destruction event was reported by any wire.", "failure_condition": "Neither the Gaza Board of Peace nor Reuters, AP, Al Jazeera or BBC reports a verified Hamas weapons handover or destruction event under the agreement dated 2026-07-31 through 2026-08-31, as read on 2026-08-31; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Operator reads Board and wire coverage and judges what constitutes a verified handover or destruction event.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:28:25.368679+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fd60d829443ff51b74fa931de15b5633650f681f4371bb9511170cc25b51b106", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Hamas disarmament remained the central unresolved dispute all window: AP via PBS 08-19 shows Hamas attacking the Board of Peace as cover for Israeli escalation, and Gaza-war summaries state the phased plan is paralyzed over Hamas not disarming; no verified weapons handover or destruction event was reported by any wire." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-07-31 and 2026-08-14, Iran or Iran-aligned forces will conduct at least one additional strike on a vessel or a US-linked asset in the Gulf states or the Strait of Hormuz.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 62, "resolution": "True if U.S. Central Command or a major wire service (Reuters, AP, CNBC) reports a new Iran-linked strike on a vessel or Gulf-state US asset between 2026-07-31 and 2026-08-14; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-08-14", "citations": [ 22 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-12", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] Al Jazeera dated Aug 8 2026, carrying Reuters and AP reporting, states the UAE accused Iran of striking an ADNOC tanker with a missile in the Strait of Hormuz early Aug 8, and ADNOC said three of its vessels were attacked that week; this is a new Iran-linked strike on a vessel reported by the named wires inside the Jul 31 to Aug 14 window.", "failure_condition": "No new Iran-linked strike on a vessel or a US-linked asset in the Gulf states or the Strait of Hormuz dated 2026-07-31 through 2026-08-14 is reported by U.S. Central Command, Reuters, AP or CNBC, as read on 2026-08-14; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Iran-linkage attribution and asset-class characterization are operator readings of official and wire coverage.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:28:25.368772+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ff407097c5a86e832ebb6b9ae4b2f1d226dacc6152a002c5dee32f0b49e80f67", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Al Jazeera dated Aug 8 2026, carrying Reuters and AP reporting, states the UAE accused Iran of striking an ADNOC tanker with a missile in the Strait of Hormuz early Aug 8, and ADNOC said three of its vessels were attacked that week; this is a new Iran-linked strike on a vessel reported by the named wires inside the Jul 31 to Aug 14 window." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-07-31 and 2026-08-21, Anthropic will publish a public postmortem or security advisory specifically addressing the reported Claude-related breach of three organizations and the PyPI malware upload.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 45, "resolution": "True if Anthropic publishes a blog post, security advisory, or report specifically addressing this incident, as reported by a major outlet, between 2026-07-31 and 2026-08-21; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-08-21", "citations": [ 6, 7 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-13", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "MISS on the letter: Anthropic's report is dated 30 Jul (anthropic.com newsroom); the window opens 31 Jul. The promised redacted transcript had not appeared by 5 Aug (The Hacker News). No Anthropic publication inside 07-31..08-21 located. Juror A ruled HIT at low confidence and flagged the date itself.", "failure_condition": "Anthropic publishes no blog post, security advisory or report specifically addressing the reported Claude-related breach of three organizations and the PyPI malware upload, as reported by a major outlet dated 2026-07-31 through 2026-08-21, as read on 2026-08-21; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Whether a publication specifically addresses the named incident is an operator characterization judgment.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:28:25.368792+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3e84134571ce1ecd34cf8b7ec193b67d3c2c9a29e5688da9822c6417f7cbc86a", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "operator", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Anthropic Frontier Red Team published a detailed postmortem report on the three-organization breach and the PyPI malware upload, which Socket dates to July 30, 2026, and which Help Net Security (July 31, 2026), BleepingComputer (July 31, 2026, saying Anthropic said today) and CyberScoop covered as major outlets; the report describes the 141,006-run review, the July 23 halt of cyber evaluations, notification of affected organizations on July 27, and blameless-postmortem fixes." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-07-31 and 2026-08-19, the confirmed death toll among migrants crossing the Spain-Morocco border at Ceuta during this surge will exceed 60.", "domain": "political", "probability": 55, "resolution": "True if Spanish authorities or a major wire service (Reuters, AP) reports a confirmed death toll above 60 from this border-crossing surge between 2026-07-31 and 2026-08-19; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-08-19", "citations": [ 1, 5, 9 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-14", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] AP via NPR (Aug 1, 2026) reported the Spanish government put the Ceuta border-crisis death toll at 67; Reuters via NBC News (Aug 3, 2026) reported the official toll on the Spanish side at 72 plus 11 on the Moroccan side, and Al Jazeera (Aug 2, 2026) reported the Spanish government representative in Ceuta confirming 72; Ceuta leader Juan Jesus Vivas later told the European Parliament at least 100 died (Al Jazeera, Aug 6, 2026).", "failure_condition": "No report by Spanish authorities, Reuters or AP dated 2026-07-31 through 2026-08-19 states a confirmed migrant death toll above 60 from the Ceuta border-crossing surge, as read on 2026-08-19; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Toll confirmation and surge attribution are read from official and wire reporting.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:28:25.368804+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a60a1f03c495ae2be1b06b2b64402c0dd592ff9902c0e89755982ce18a2536ac", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "AP via NPR (Aug 1, 2026) reported the Spanish government put the Ceuta border-crisis death toll at 67; Reuters via NBC News (Aug 3, 2026) reported the official toll on the Spanish side at 72 plus 11 on the Moroccan side, and Al Jazeera (Aug 2, 2026) reported the Spanish government representative in Ceuta confirming 72; Ceuta leader Juan Jesus Vivas later told the European Parliament at least 100 died (Al Jazeera, Aug 6, 2026)." } }, { "statement": "Apple stock will record at least one additional daily close lower than its 2026-07-31 close on any trading day between 2026-08-03 and 2026-08-07.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 56, "resolution": "True if Apple common stock closes below its 2026-07-31 close on at least one trading day between 2026-08-03 and 2026-08-07; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-08-07", "citations": [ 15 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-15", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-08", "notes": "[jury] S&P Global daily table via stockanalysis.com (read after the Aug 7 close): Jul 31, 2026 close 308.91 (the -7.35 percent, 131M-share plunge day); Aug 3 close 303.42 - below the reference - then Aug 4 through Aug 7 closes 309.38, 311.00, 312.41, 313.33, all above. The criterion is satisfied by the Aug 3 close alone.", "failure_condition": "Apple common stock records no daily close below its 2026-07-31 close on any trading day 2026-08-03 through 2026-08-07, per official exchange closing data as read on 2026-08-07; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Official closing-price series against a fixed reference close; mechanical.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:28:25.368815+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fecfc8346caa5ce4e9d6fafa2ec353b184b86e9c04abebd8793e5722a7f62426", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "S&P Global daily table via stockanalysis.com (read after the Aug 7 close): Jul 31, 2026 close 308.91 (the -7.35 percent, 131M-share plunge day); Aug 3 close 303.42 - below the reference - then Aug 4 through Aug 7 closes 309.38, 311.00, 312.41, 313.33, all above. The criterion is satisfied by the Aug 3 close alone." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-07-31 and 2026-10-30, the Federal Reserve will announce an increase in the federal funds rate.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 28, "resolution": "True if the Federal Reserve announces an increase in the federal funds rate, as reported by a major financial outlet, between 2026-07-31 and 2026-10-30; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 6, 16 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-16", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "No Federal Reserve announcement of an increase in the federal funds rate dated 2026-07-31 through 2026-10-30 is reported by a major financial outlet, as read on 2026-10-30; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Resolution basis names outlet reporting rather than the FOMC statement alone; operator reads coverage.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:28:25.368831+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5f46f6fe7e827270790fbc31d2fc2aaa9b737780874acdd2f846dad7d76b1e23", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-07-31 and 2026-08-28, at least one additional named individual will publicly allege misconduct against the St Paul mayor, or the mayor will resign or face a formal ethics or criminal proceeding.", "domain": "political", "probability": 48, "resolution": "True if a major outlet reports a new named accuser, a resignation, or a formal ethics or criminal proceeding involving the St Paul mayor between 2026-07-31 and 2026-08-28; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 8 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-17", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Coverage through late August (Star Tribune 08-06 and 08-10, Fox 9 08-06, Sahan Journal, insightnews 08-04) shows the pre-existing April complaint by Chief Axel Henry, an outside-firm investigation retained by the city, and no resignation.", "failure_condition": "No major-outlet report dated 2026-07-31 through 2026-08-28 names a new accuser alleging misconduct against the St Paul mayor, and none reports a resignation or a formal ethics or criminal proceeding involving the mayor, as read on 2026-08-28; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Compound criterion; operator judges accuser novelty and what constitutes a formal proceeding.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:28:25.368841+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fa412b076f0d7203177293f3a1b35102e082e6f59ad20e370255ff9147a5340d", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Coverage through late August (Star Tribune 08-06 and 08-10, Fox 9 08-06, Sahan Journal, insightnews 08-04) shows the pre-existing April complaint by Chief Axel Henry, an outside-firm investigation retained by the city, and no resignation." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-07-31 and 2026-08-24, the combined confirmed death toll from the current Greece and Spain wildfire events will exceed 5.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 40, "resolution": "True if Greek or Spanish civil protection authorities or a major wire service reports a combined confirmed death toll above 5 from these wildfire events between 2026-07-31 and 2026-08-24; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-08-24", "citations": [ 2, 4, 19 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-18", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] In-window wire reporting documents the Greek toll rising past five: AP via PBS News (July 30, 2026) on two Crete firefighter deaths, Balkan Insight (Aug 3, 2026) citing five firefighters killed including two helicopter crew on Aug 2, and BBC (Aug 16, 2026) on two more deaths in the Salamis fires; the current Spanish events at issuance included the Almeria wildfire whose toll reached 14 by July 27 (Wikipedia citing La Razon and El Periodico; CNN/Reuters July 10, 2026) and a Manises death on July 25 (Mappr), so the combined Greece plus Spain toll exceeded 5 many times over.", "failure_condition": "No report by Greek or Spanish civil protection authorities or a major wire service dated 2026-07-31 through 2026-08-24 states a combined confirmed death toll above 5 from the current Greece and Spain wildfire events, as read on 2026-08-24; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Combining tolls across two national events and attributing them to the named fires is an operator reading.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:28:25.368852+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5b59137e9e63f1da22921dc5f6a5574a4b7cc5bf5b7c7fc6fd7e67d8d815cd07", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "In-window wire reporting documents the Greek toll rising past five: AP via PBS News (July 30, 2026) on two Crete firefighter deaths, Balkan Insight (Aug 3, 2026) citing five firefighters killed including two helicopter crew on Aug 2, and BBC (Aug 16, 2026) on two more deaths in the Salamis fires; the current Spanish events at issuance included the Almeria wildfire whose toll reached 14 by July 27 (Wikipedia citing La Razon and El Periodico; CNN/Reuters July 10, 2026) and a Manises death on July 25 (Mappr), so the combined Greece plus Spain toll exceeded 5 many times over." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-07-31 and 2026-08-18, Houthi forces and Saudi Arabia will exchange at least one additional publicly reported military strike, beyond the current flare-up in Yemen.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "True if a major wire service (Reuters, AP, Al Jazeera) or Deutsche Welle reports a new Houthi-Saudi strike or attack in Yemen between 2026-07-31 and 2026-08-18; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-08-18", "citations": [ 17 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-19", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] Al Jazeera (Aug 7, 2026) reported Houthi drone and ballistic-missile strikes on Aug 6 against Saudi-led coalition and Yemeni government military sites in Hadramout and Marib, killing at least 30 soldiers, followed by at least 12 further Houthi missile attacks on Aug 7, plus a Houthi attack on Najran in southern Saudi Arabia that wounded 11 civilians per a Saudi official speaking to Reuters; Al Jazeera (Aug 9, 2026) reported a Houthi-claimed drone strike on the Aramco refinery in Jizan, which the Houthis framed as retaliation for Saudi drone incursions over Saada and Hajjah; Bloomberg (Aug 6, 2", "failure_condition": "No report by Reuters, AP, Al Jazeera or Deutsche Welle dated 2026-07-31 through 2026-08-18 describes a new Houthi-Saudi strike or attack in Yemen beyond the current flare-up, as read on 2026-08-18; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Operator judges what counts as a new exchange beyond the flare-up already reported.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:28:25.368862+00:00", "seal_sha256": "71db2a9b1332af9cd75ae3259eef978c4d276ba007768d8a333d8215999cb519", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Al Jazeera (Aug 7, 2026) reported Houthi drone and ballistic-missile strikes on Aug 6 against Saudi-led coalition and Yemeni government military sites in Hadramout and Marib, killing at least 30 soldiers, followed by at least 12 further Houthi missile attacks on Aug 7, plus a Houthi attack on Najran in southern Saudi Arabia that wounded 11 civilians per a Saudi official speaking to Reuters; Al Jazeera (Aug 9, 2026) reported a Houthi-claimed drone strike on the Aramco refinery in Jizan, which the Houthis framed as retaliation for Saudi drone incursions over Saada and Hajjah; Bloomberg (Aug 6, 2" } }, { "statement": "The US Navy or Department of Defense publicly confirms a direct armed engagement between US forces and Iranian forces or Iranian-operated vessels or aircraft in or near the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-08-07 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 75, "resolution": "True if an official US Navy, CENTCOM, or DoD statement carried by two or more major outlets confirms such an engagement occurring between 2026-08-07 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 4, 6, 22 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-20", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "No official US Navy, CENTCOM or DoD statement carried by two or more major outlets confirms a direct armed engagement between US forces and Iranian forces or Iranian-operated vessels or aircraft in or near the Strait of Hormuz occurring 2026-08-07 through 2026-09-30, as read on 2026-09-30; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Official confirmation plus two-outlet carriage plus engagement characterization are operator readings.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:28:25.368871+00:00", "seal_sha256": "51ddfc6c8fa962590706c58511ed93c2d649fc990f7d4a9c5534fff9b1810d62", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "A named international monitor, the Gaza Board of Peace, or the US government publicly confirms that Hamas has physically handed over heavy weapons between 2026-08-07 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 25, "resolution": "True if an official statement from the Board of Peace, a named international monitoring body, or the US government confirms a completed heavy-weapons handover in that window. Announcements of agreement alone do not resolve true.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 7, 16, 18 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-21", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "No official statement from the Gaza Board of Peace, a named international monitoring body, or the US government dated 2026-08-07 through 2026-10-30 confirms a completed physical handover of heavy weapons by Hamas; announcements of agreement alone do not resolve true; that reading on 2026-10-30 scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Completedness and the heavy-weapons class are operator judgments; the criterion itself excludes announcement-only reporting.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:28:25.368880+00:00", "seal_sha256": "bddb0c8e091636c7b8f53290afbec9ef9ac4dcf2d88359112f59964408472fe7", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "The Federal Open Market Committee announces an increase in the federal funds target range at a scheduled meeting held between 2026-08-07 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 30, "resolution": "True if an FOMC statement issued between 2026-08-07 and 2026-12-31 announces a higher target range for the federal funds rate.", "deadline": "2026-12-31", "citations": [ 6, 16 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-22", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "No FOMC statement issued 2026-08-07 through 2026-12-31 announces a higher federal funds target range, as read at federalreserve.gov on 2026-12-31; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Single named instrument; mechanical comparison of announced target ranges.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:28:25.368890+00:00", "seal_sha256": "bf66142030d86f56e54912385c2c51da72e42e714dbb2e934371af5304235e15", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "Front-month WTI crude futures settle above 95.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-07 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 40, "resolution": "True if NYMEX front-month WTI settlement exceeds 95.00 dollars on any session from 2026-08-07 through 2026-09-30, per exchange or major financial press data.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 8, 11, 24 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-23", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "No NYMEX front-month WTI settlement exceeds 95.00 USD on any session 2026-08-07 through 2026-09-30, per exchange or major financial press settlement data as read on 2026-09-30; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Named exchange settlement series against a fixed numeric threshold; mechanical.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:28:25.368898+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1d00a6ce8e6278552cfe7a9cb85121af9757da464b735d95ce71fdf600ad2b0c", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "Frontex or the European Commission publicly announces a deployment of personnel or emergency border funding to Spain in response to the Ceuta crossings between 2026-08-07 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 55, "resolution": "True if Frontex or the European Commission issues a public statement in that window announcing personnel deployment or emergency funds to Spain for the Ceuta border.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 1, 5, 7, 9 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-24", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "Neither Frontex nor the European Commission issues a public statement dated 2026-08-07 through 2026-09-30 announcing personnel deployment or emergency border funding to Spain for the Ceuta crossings, as read on 2026-09-30; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Operator judges whether a statement announces qualifying deployment or funding for the named border.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:28:25.368907+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9e5c595209b3c4c7e09eb80374fbba07adba41c494d0e1e11ba1287c75d8086c", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "A US congressional committee, member of Congress, or federal agency publicly issues a letter, inquiry, or hearing notice addressed to Anthropic regarding the reported autonomous breach of three organizations between 2026-08-07 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 40, "resolution": "True if such a letter, formal inquiry, or hearing notice naming Anthropic and referencing the incident is publicly reported between 2026-08-07 and 2026-11-30.", "deadline": "2026-11-30", "citations": [ 6, 7, 23 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-25", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "No publicly reported letter, formal inquiry or hearing notice from a US congressional committee, member of Congress, or federal agency naming Anthropic and referencing the reported autonomous breach is dated 2026-08-07 through 2026-11-30, as read on 2026-11-30; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Operator reads whether a communication names the company and references the incident.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:28:25.368916+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ff854041194ef1a244481b5478e262d9ccfa6937f57e321ca11213e687e07660", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "CISA adds the JetBrains TeamCity remote code execution vulnerability disclosed in late July 2026 to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-08-07 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 38, "resolution": "True if the CISA KEV catalog shows an entry for that TeamCity vulnerability with a date added between 2026-08-07 and 2026-10-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 9 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-26", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog shows no entry for the late July 2026 JetBrains TeamCity remote code execution vulnerability with a date added between 2026-08-07 and 2026-10-30, as read on 2026-10-30; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Named government catalog page; presence of a dated entry is mechanical.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:28:25.368925+00:00", "seal_sha256": "413c2d1824f30e2230509557bcf737478d473b116b4ae32b46fdab1acba38913", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "The CBOE Volatility Index closes above 35.00 on at least one trading day between 2026-08-07 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 28, "resolution": "True if the official VIX close exceeds 35.00 on any session from 2026-08-07 through 2026-10-30, per CBOE or major financial press data.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 13, 15, 20 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-27", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "The official CBOE VIX close does not exceed 35.00 on any session 2026-08-07 through 2026-10-30, per CBOE or major financial press data as read on 2026-10-30; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Named index official close against a fixed numeric threshold; mechanical.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:28:25.368934+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6212b240dedd27e192b1a64dbacb30287f806c46c487451aab2a44b7404c2a99", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "The confirmed death toll from the Broad Peak avalanche in Pakistan reaches eight or more, per public reporting between 2026-08-07 and 2026-08-31.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 50, "resolution": "True if Pakistani authorities, Alpine Club of Pakistan, or major wire reporting state a confirmed death toll of at least eight from that avalanche during the window.", "deadline": "2026-08-31", "citations": [ 12, 24 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-28", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] All 10 Broad Peak climbers were confirmed dead (Elite Exped 08-01; Alpine Club of Pakistan recoveries), and in-window wire reporting restated the toll of 10, including AP via ABC on 08-13 covering the recovery of the final missing climber and 08-11 vigil coverage.", "failure_condition": "No statement by Pakistani authorities, the Alpine Club of Pakistan, or major wire reporting dated 2026-08-07 through 2026-08-31 confirms a death toll of at least eight from the Broad Peak avalanche, as read on 2026-08-31; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Toll confirmation and event attribution are read from official and wire reporting.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:28:25.368943+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3b009b15aa95aae602341d6ad6124b1108bd7bacd2556c6c3aa6bdcab7b22456", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "All 10 Broad Peak climbers were confirmed dead (Elite Exped 08-01; Alpine Club of Pakistan recoveries), and in-window wire reporting restated the toll of 10, including AP via ABC on 08-13 covering the recovery of the final missing climber and 08-11 vigil coverage." } }, { "statement": "The mayor of St Paul, Minnesota resigns, is removed from office, or announces she will not seek re-election between 2026-08-07 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 28, "resolution": "True if credible reporting between 2026-08-07 and 2026-11-30 confirms resignation, removal, or a public announcement of not seeking re-election.", "deadline": "2026-11-30", "citations": [ 8 ], "id": "KKR-20260731-29", "date_issued": "2026-07-31", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-07-31_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-07-31_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "No credible reporting dated 2026-08-07 through 2026-11-30 confirms the St Paul mayor resigning, being removed from office, or publicly announcing she will not seek re-election, as read on 2026-11-30; that reading scores this entry a MISS.", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Operator judges credibility of reporting and which of the three outcomes occurred.", "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:28:25.368951+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ccc9a51502bd4e9aa9c7239dbabc420f6be69b233e905ade0e63fb24a0aa1e0a", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-05", "keyed_keyless_date_note": "determination recorded undated at issue (2026-07-30/31 determination pass); dated at re-affirmation 2026-08-05 by operator via redate_determinations.py; the undated original is preserved in git history at the pre-apply commit" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-16 and 2026-08-23, a cyberattack exploiting the Adobe Campaign Classic CVSS 10.0 vulnerability will result in a data breach affecting over 1 million users.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "A public disclosure from Adobe or a third-party cybersecurity firm confirms that the Adobe Campaign Classic CVSS 10.0 vulnerability was exploited between 2026-08-16 and 2026-08-23, leading to a data breach affecting more than 1 million users.", "deadline": "2026-08-23", "citations": [ 4 ], "id": "KKR-20260801-01", "date_issued": "2026-08-01", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-01_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-01_1501.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] Adobe patched Campaign Classic CVSS 10.0 flaws on Aug 1 (CVE-2026-48449, The Hacker News Aug 1, 2026) and again on Aug 11 (CVE-2026-48331, -48323, -48330; The Hacker News and Field Effect Aug 2026) and stated in each advisory that it was not aware of any exploitation in the wild; no disclosure from Adobe or any cybersecurity firm of exploitation between Aug 16 and Aug 23, let alone a breach affecting more than one million users, was found.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — A public disclosure from Adobe or a third-party cybersecurity firm confirms that the Adobe Campaign Classic CVSS 10.0 vulnerability was exploited between 2026-08-16 and 2026-08-23, leading to a data breach affecting more than 1 million users — is not met on or before 2026-08-23; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-01T16:55:29.613233+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3e8f97e72012365f83ece94aae48ce8bfe5509ac94d1661a3d69a6d8ed37190b", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "deducible from the cited report items", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Adobe patched Campaign Classic CVSS 10.0 flaws on Aug 1 (CVE-2026-48449, The Hacker News Aug 1, 2026) and again on Aug 11 (CVE-2026-48331, -48323, -48330; The Hacker News and Field Effect Aug 2026) and stated in each advisory that it was not aware of any exploitation in the wild; no disclosure from Adobe or any cybersecurity firm of exploitation between Aug 16 and Aug 23, let alone a breach affecting more than one million users, was found." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-09 and 2026-09-16, Iran will launch a missile strike on a U.S. military installation in the Persian Gulf region.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 15, "resolution": "A public report from at least two independent sources across hostile sides (AXIS, WEST) confirms a missile strike by Iran on a U.S. military installation in the Persian Gulf between 2026-09-09 and 2026-09-16, with no denial from U.S. defense sources.", "deadline": "2026-09-16", "citations": [ 10 ], "id": "KKR-20260801-02", "date_issued": "2026-08-01", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-01_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-01_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — A public report from at least two independent sources across hostile sides (AXIS, WEST) confirms a missile strike by Iran on a U.S. military installation in the Persian Gulf between 2026-09-09 and 2026-09-16, with no denial from U.S. defense sources — is not met on or before 2026-09-16; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-01T16:55:29.613339+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ab516d37c541735a8987a54f1597c77821e29e14c4679fd99ff484ad9ce69a18", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Same basis as KKR-20260801-03. Ruled across all 5 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The US Department of Defense or the White House publicly confirms US military strikes on targets inside Iran between 2026-08-08 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 45, "resolution": "Resolved from defense.gov news releases and whitehouse.gov briefing transcripts on 2026-10-30. Yes if any on-record item published in the window confirms US strikes on Iranian territory.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 10, 19, 23 ], "id": "KKR-20260801-03", "date_issued": "2026-08-01", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-01_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-01_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — any on-record item published in the window confirms US strikes on Iranian territory — is not met on or before 2026-10-30 as read from defense.gov news releases and whitehouse.gov briefing transcripts; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-01T16:55:29.613360+00:00", "seal_sha256": "103c7707dfbc78a307066f6e3cc093f41f78cd345b2917307476ccb2c141912d", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Priors carry the same conflict and the same threatened strikes: \"Iran warns against ‘flames of war’ amid US strike threats\". Ruled across all 5 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "At least one additional commercial vessel is struck by weapons in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman between 2026-08-08 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 62, "resolution": "Resolved from the UKMTO maritime incident report index on 2026-09-30. Yes if any advisory in the window records a commercial vessel struck by missile, drone or gunfire in those waters.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 10, 19 ], "id": "KKR-20260801-04", "date_issued": "2026-08-01", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-01_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-01_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — any advisory in the window records a commercial vessel struck by missile, drone or gunfire in those waters — is not met on or before 2026-09-30 as read from the UKMTO maritime incident report index; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-01T16:55:29.613374+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1979244f0572d2fe10bf9610373962883269ed8b9e823a38dd589db19228e0b2", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 5 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent front-month crude settles above 110.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-10 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 28, "resolution": "Resolved from the official ICE Brent front-month settlement series read on 2026-10-30. Yes if any settlement in the window is above 110.00.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 19 ], "id": "KKR-20260801-05", "date_issued": "2026-08-01", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-01_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-01_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — any settlement in the window is above 110.00 — is not met on or before 2026-10-30 as read from the official ICE Brent front-month settlement series read; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-01T16:55:29.613383+00:00", "seal_sha256": "22d13ffa7f5b045326a884ac9327c7d21a7365d9851983da85272507b430634f", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 3 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_superseded": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_corrected": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_correction": "CORRECTED from keyless. cite_integrity finds this entry UNSUPPORTED: none of its 1 cited item(s) shares discriminating vocabulary with the claim. A KEYLESS ruling asserts the entry went beyond its declared priors; where the priors ground nothing, there is no readable prior to have gone beyond and the assertion is unsupportable. The forecaster may have held the right item in view and cited badly - the record cannot say. 4.03 defaults KEYED where the determination cannot be made, and the determination doctrine's own rule requires taking the reading that does not inflate the faculty-bearing count. Keyed by rule, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_authority": "Ruled by the assistant at the operator's explicit delegation, under the determination doctrine of 2026-08-04 rev. 2. Recorded as the assistant's ruling, not the operator's." }, { "statement": "NYMEX WTI front-month crude settles above 95.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 45, "resolution": "Resolved from the CME official NYMEX WTI front-month settlement series read on 2026-09-30. Yes if any settlement in the window is above 95.00.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 19 ], "id": "KKR-20260801-06", "date_issued": "2026-08-01", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-01_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-01_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — any settlement in the window is above 95.00 — is not met on or before 2026-09-30 as read from the CME official NYMEX WTI front-month settlement series read; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-01T16:55:29.613392+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5c242953a4a92503afdfb1874ce9d94adf02b8bc8fc5214d16fb3526598b80d8", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 3 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_superseded": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_corrected": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_correction": "CORRECTED from keyless. cite_integrity finds this entry UNSUPPORTED: none of its 1 cited item(s) shares discriminating vocabulary with the claim. A KEYLESS ruling asserts the entry went beyond its declared priors; where the priors ground nothing, there is no readable prior to have gone beyond and the assertion is unsupportable. The forecaster may have held the right item in view and cited badly - the record cannot say. 4.03 defaults KEYED where the determination cannot be made, and the determination doctrine's own rule requires taking the reading that does not inflate the faculty-bearing count. Keyed by rule, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_authority": "Ruled by the assistant at the operator's explicit delegation, under the determination doctrine of 2026-08-04 rev. 2. Recorded as the assistant's ruling, not the operator's." }, { "statement": "An extraordinary European Council or Justice and Home Affairs Council session on the Ceuta migration crisis convenes between 2026-08-08 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 72, "resolution": "Resolved from the Council of the EU meeting calendar on 2026-09-30. Yes if a special or extraordinary session in the window lists Ceuta or Spain-Morocco migration on its published agenda.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 1, 2, 6, 11 ], "id": "KKR-20260801-07", "date_issued": "2026-08-01", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-01_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-01_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — a special or extraordinary session in the window lists Ceuta or Spain-Morocco migration on its published agenda — is not met on or before 2026-09-30 as read from the Council of the EU meeting calendar; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-01T16:55:29.613401+00:00", "seal_sha256": "682ba13ef13a7e29ce1313bef7f154c586b9f23c364413f6e9b2c00b9b42eba2", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports the same crisis and the same institution: \"EU offered Spain support ‘from first moment’ of Ceuta crisis\". Ruled across all 8 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "Gianni Infantino ceases to be FIFA president, by resignation or removal, announced between 2026-08-08 and 2026-12-18.", "domain": "political", "probability": 20, "resolution": "Resolved from FIFA official media releases on 2026-12-18. Yes if a release in the window announces his resignation, removal, or replacement as president.", "deadline": "2026-12-18", "citations": [ 8, 14 ], "id": "KKR-20260801-08", "date_issued": "2026-08-01", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-01_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-01_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — a release in the window announces his resignation, removal, or replacement as president — is not met on or before 2026-12-18 as read from FIFA official media releases; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-01T16:55:29.613409+00:00", "seal_sha256": "17a71d6b0d040eec10fb19c19a02a79b5b668811bc21cfc30b90300190598af9", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior names the same officeholder and the same crisis: \"Infantino’s FIFA World Cup crisis: Who could replace president?\". Ruled across all 6 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "CISA adds an Adobe Campaign Classic vulnerability to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-08-08 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "Resolved from the CISA KEV catalog JSON on 2026-10-30. Yes if any entry has vendorProject Adobe, product matching Campaign Classic, and dateAdded inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 4 ], "id": "KKR-20260801-09", "date_issued": "2026-08-01", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-01_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-01_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — any entry has vendorProject Adobe, product matching Campaign Classic, and dateAdded inside the window — is not met on or before 2026-10-30 as read from the CISA KEV catalog JSON; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-01T16:55:29.613418+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a088ac9fbbda6718dc1d16ac51984c7b8254bbbb8d6409543e0f8a922e0ee0da", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior discloses the same product and flaw: \"Adobe Campaign Classic CVSS 10.0 Flaw Could Run Code Without [authentication]\". Ruled across all 8 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "CISA publishes an advisory or alert confirming a cyber incident that disrupted operations at a named US water or wastewater utility, between 2026-08-08 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 55, "resolution": "Resolved from the CISA cybersecurity advisories index on 2026-11-30. Yes if any item published in the window names a US water or wastewater utility with disrupted operations.", "deadline": "2026-11-30", "citations": [ 12 ], "id": "KKR-20260801-10", "date_issued": "2026-08-01", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-01_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-01_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — any item published in the window names a US water or wastewater utility with disrupted operations — is not met on or before 2026-11-30 as read from the CISA cybersecurity advisories index; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-01T16:55:29.613427+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6ff541c8a04abbfd87e8d527be7f36fcb86cb4934c25f695ab302c38ca778b30", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Same basis as KKR-20260801-17. Ruled across all 5 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "INGV records an earthquake of magnitude 4.0 or greater within 30 km of Naples between 2026-08-08 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 58, "resolution": "Resolved from the INGV ISIDe event query, radius 30 km on 40.85N 14.27E, minmagnitude 4.0, starttime 2026-08-08, endtime 2026-11-30. Yes if any event returns.", "deadline": "2026-11-30", "citations": [ 1 ], "id": "KKR-20260801-11", "date_issued": "2026-08-01", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-01_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-01_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — any event returns — is not met on or before 2026-11-30 as read from the INGV ISIDe event query, radius 30 km on 40.85N 14.27E, minmagnitude 4.0, starttime 2026-08-08, endtime 2026-11-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-01T16:55:29.613435+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9b98df50acaa6cc85bbea792c5cad65f8aff029458dfe84488d55893d06d0b0c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports the same swarm: \"Dozens injured as earthquake hits near Naples in seismic swarm\". Ruled across all 8 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "Spanish or Moroccan authorities announce criminal charges against ten or more people over the Ceuta mass border crossing between 2026-08-08 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 40, "resolution": "Resolved from Fiscalia General del Estado, Spanish Interior Ministry, and Moroccan MAP official releases on 2026-11-30. Yes if any names charges against ten or more individuals.", "deadline": "2026-11-30", "citations": [ 9, 12, 15 ], "id": "KKR-20260801-12", "date_issued": "2026-08-01", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-01_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-01_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — any names charges against ten or more individuals — is not met on or before 2026-11-30 as read from Fiscalia General del Estado, Spanish Interior Ministry, and Moroccan MAP official releases; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-01T16:55:29.613444+00:00", "seal_sha256": "342de9c9ac9e5c5d2fe262aebaf1b6c40693ba3e3555c5062cb2d456ef2902f7", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports the same mass entry: \"Spain says migrants leaving Ceuta after mass influx\". Ruled across all 5 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The United States or Israel will conduct a publicly confirmed military strike on Iranian oil, gas, or petrochemical infrastructure between 2026-08-08 and 2026-08-31.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 68, "resolution": "Resolved from defense.gov news releases and idf.il statements on 2026-08-31. Yes if any release in the window confirms a US or Israeli strike on Iranian oil, gas, or petrochemical infrastructure.", "deadline": "2026-08-31", "citations": [ 10 ], "id": "KKR-20260801-13", "date_issued": "2026-08-01", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-01_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-01_1501.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] In-window US action was limited to the 08-30 CENTCOM strikes on rocket launchers on Larak Island, a military target; AJ 08-31 reports the Trump Kharg Island claim rested on an AI-generated video with no other evidence the energy hub was attacked, and earlier US strikes deliberately avoided oil and gas infrastructure.", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — any release in the window confirms a US or Israeli strike on Iranian oil, gas, or petrochemical infrastructure — is not met on or before 2026-08-31 as read from defense.gov news releases and idf.il statements; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-01T16:55:29.613452+00:00", "seal_sha256": "189d82511bfefe7dcb7188b16de84b5f3de9909b073cbd2ba7d65552fd9e3c8f", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "cited item [10] concerns Chinese-speaking hackers targeting Central Asian governments and is unrelated to US or Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure; the declared prior does not establish what the forecaster held, so deducibility is undeterminable - keyed by the conservative rule, pending cite_audit", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-01", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "In-window US action was limited to the 08-30 CENTCOM strikes on rocket launchers on Larak Island, a military target; AJ 08-31 reports the Trump Kharg Island claim rested on an AI-generated video with no other evidence the energy hub was attacked, and earlier US strikes deliberately avoided oil and gas infrastructure." } }, { "statement": "Russia and Ukraine will sign or jointly announce a ceasefire or peace agreement intended to end large-scale hostilities, effective on or before 2026-12-31.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 10, "resolution": "Resolved from kremlin.ru and president.gov.ua official statements on 2026-12-31. Yes if both confirm a signed or jointly announced ceasefire or peace agreement ending large-scale hostilities.", "deadline": "2026-12-31", "citations": [ 7 ], "id": "KKR-20260801-14", "date_issued": "2026-08-01", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-01_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-01_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — both confirm a signed or jointly announced ceasefire or peace agreement ending large-scale hostilities — is not met on or before 2026-12-31 as read from kremlin.ru and president.gov.ua official statements; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-01T16:55:29.613461+00:00", "seal_sha256": "df435bb73ea69230eb966c8d0d2a4f92551625460b78ef6e57ed56264e90dfc4", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Priors report escalation — \"Nine killed in strikes on Kyiv\". A ceasefire is not the ordinary next stage of the process the priors describe; it is its reversal. Ruled across all 6 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The Federal Reserve will cut the federal funds rate at the conclusion of its September 15-16, 2026 FOMC meeting.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 28, "resolution": "Resolved from the FOMC statement published on federalreserve.gov on 2026-09-16. Yes if the announced federal funds rate target range is lower than the range set after the July 2026 meeting.", "deadline": "2026-09-16", "citations": [ 12 ], "id": "KKR-20260801-15", "date_issued": "2026-08-01", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-01_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-01_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — the announced federal funds rate target range is lower than the range set after the July 2026 meeting — is not met on or before 2026-09-16 as read from the FOMC statement published on federalreserve.gov; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-01T16:55:29.613470+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0c057223244359843ef38359abec305b2d3d0d7d2910e7ccdfacfba11b133950", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 5 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_superseded": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_corrected": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_correction": "CORRECTED from keyless. cite_integrity finds this entry UNSUPPORTED: none of its 1 cited item(s) shares discriminating vocabulary with the claim. A KEYLESS ruling asserts the entry went beyond its declared priors; where the priors ground nothing, there is no readable prior to have gone beyond and the assertion is unsupportable. The forecaster may have held the right item in view and cited badly - the record cannot say. 4.03 defaults KEYED where the determination cannot be made, and the determination doctrine's own rule requires taking the reading that does not inflate the faculty-bearing count. Keyed by rule, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_authority": "Ruled by the assistant at the operator's explicit delegation, under the determination doctrine of 2026-08-04 rev. 2. Recorded as the assistant's ruling, not the operator's." }, { "statement": "WTI crude oil front-month futures will settle above 95.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-08 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 32, "resolution": "Resolved from the CME official NYMEX WTI front-month settlement series read on 2026-09-30. Yes if any settlement in the window is above 95.00.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 19 ], "id": "KKR-20260801-16", "date_issued": "2026-08-01", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-01_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-01_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — any settlement in the window is above 95.00 — is not met on or before 2026-09-30 as read from the CME official NYMEX WTI front-month settlement series read; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-01T16:55:29.613478+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fc4b00cf9d14dc29f45a21743e2c883931d580d366d3a1c661274aed03c15b9d", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 3 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_superseded": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_corrected": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_correction": "CORRECTED from keyless. cite_integrity finds this entry UNSUPPORTED: none of its 1 cited item(s) shares discriminating vocabulary with the claim. A KEYLESS ruling asserts the entry went beyond its declared priors; where the priors ground nothing, there is no readable prior to have gone beyond and the assertion is unsupportable. The forecaster may have held the right item in view and cited badly - the record cannot say. 4.03 defaults KEYED where the determination cannot be made, and the determination doctrine's own rule requires taking the reading that does not inflate the faculty-bearing count. Keyed by rule, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_authority": "Ruled by the assistant at the operator's explicit delegation, under the determination doctrine of 2026-08-04 rev. 2. Recorded as the assistant's ruling, not the operator's." }, { "statement": "CISA, EPA, or FBI will issue an advisory, or Reuters or AP will report, that a cyberattack disrupted operational technology at a US water or wastewater utility, between 2026-08-08 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "Resolved from the CISA cybersecurity advisories index on 2026-10-31. Yes if any advisory published in the window names a US water or wastewater utility with disrupted operations.", "deadline": "2026-10-31", "citations": [ 12 ], "id": "KKR-20260801-17", "date_issued": "2026-08-01", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-01_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-01_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — any advisory published in the window names a US water or wastewater utility with disrupted operations — is not met on or before 2026-10-31 as read from the CISA cybersecurity advisories index; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-01T16:55:29.613486+00:00", "seal_sha256": "41fde01c7b9ceecbfca78abe6b1cd838a2c83cbfd9773c146c3af3689ef6ad56", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "The prior IS a CISA warning on the same subject: \"CISA warns of cyberattacks disrupting U.S. water utilities\". Ruled across all 5 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, or xAI will disclose a new case, beyond incidents already public as of 2026-08-01, of one of its models autonomously breaching third-party systems, between 2026-08-08 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 52, "resolution": "Resolved from openai.com, anthropic.com, deepmind.google, and x.ai safety disclosures, cross-checked against Reuters and AP, on 2026-10-31. Yes if any confirms a new case, beyond incidents public by 2026-08-01, of autonomous third-party system breach.", "deadline": "2026-10-31", "citations": [ 11 ], "id": "KKR-20260801-18", "date_issued": "2026-08-01", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-01_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-01_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — any confirms a new case, beyond incidents public by 2026-08-01, of autonomous third-party system breach — is not met on or before 2026-10-31 as read from openai.com, anthropic.com, deepmind.google, and x.ai safety disclosures, cross-checked against Reuters and AP,; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-01T16:55:29.613494+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d89dd96c9fc7cc55c8f692f9acfbf986ed378a71719713cc9aefbfc19945ff4f", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports a hacker using DeepSeek. The claim requires disclosure by OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind or xAI. Different subjects. Ruled across all 5 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The Department of Justice will publicly release the Epstein-related documents subject to the New Mexico deadline noted in reporting as of 2026-08-01, on or before 2026-09-25.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 15, "resolution": "Resolved from justice.gov releases and the docket of the underlying New Mexico court matter on 2026-09-25. Yes if DOJ has publicly released the documents subject to that deadline.", "deadline": "2026-09-25", "citations": [ 13 ], "id": "KKR-20260801-19", "date_issued": "2026-08-01", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-01_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-01_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — DOJ has publicly released the documents subject to that deadline — is not met on or before 2026-09-25 as read from justice.gov releases and the docket of the underlying New Mexico court matter; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-01T16:55:29.613504+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e0a8e847f57a4886d33cc8d586fcf79d21502e35a1854c2f7263bdf46c73b05e", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior names the same department, documents and deadline: \"DoJ appears to ignore New Mexico deadline for key Epstein [documents]\". Ruled across all 5 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "A magnitude 4.0 or greater earthquake will strike the Campi Flegrei or greater Naples area of Italy, between 2026-08-08 and 2026-12-15.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 60, "resolution": "Resolved from the INGV ISIDe event query, radius 20 km on 40.827N 14.139E, minmagnitude 4.0, starttime 2026-08-08, endtime 2026-12-15. Yes if any event returns.", "deadline": "2026-12-15", "citations": [ 1 ], "id": "KKR-20260801-20", "date_issued": "2026-08-01", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-01_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-01_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — any event returns — is not met on or before 2026-12-15 as read from the INGV ISIDe event query, radius 20 km on 40.827N 14.139E, minmagnitude 4.0, starttime 2026-08-08, endtime 2026-12-15; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-01T16:55:29.613513+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7a6bc12e7f9a7970e30707eb6647d066105f7800622d21cbd65f965354adfefd", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Same basis as KKR-20260801-11. Ruled across all 8 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "A commercial oil tanker will be attacked in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman, reported by Reuters, AP, or a maritime security firm, between 2026-08-08 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 55, "resolution": "Resolved from the UKMTO maritime incident report index on 2026-09-30. Yes if any advisory in the window records a commercial oil tanker struck by weapons in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 19 ], "id": "KKR-20260801-21", "date_issued": "2026-08-01", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-01_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-01_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — any advisory in the window records a commercial oil tanker struck by weapons in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman — is not met on or before 2026-09-30 as read from the UKMTO maritime incident report index; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-01T16:55:29.613522+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b28e99069654cd4f80b922d8b74875ca8d3a59e3df774b1d4f759148eb50b578", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports the outcome class already occurring: \"Tankers near Oman come under fire as Iran threatens\". Ruled across all 3 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "Commercial vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz is suspended for 48 or more consecutive hours between 2026-08-02 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 12, "resolution": "YES if at least two major international wire services report suspension of commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz lasting 48 or more consecutive hours between 2026-08-02 and 2026-10-30; otherwise NO.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 10 ], "id": "KKR-20260801-22", "date_issued": "2026-08-01", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-01_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-01_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — at least two major international wire services report suspension of commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz lasting 48 or more consecutive hours between 2026-08-02 and 2026-10-30 — is not met on or before 2026-10-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-01T16:55:29.613530+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8d44ccdec88f9889b8854745c7ff7dea0c63f4dd8a8bfe19a6d9ad73f28843eb", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 5 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "US or Israeli forces strike Iranian oil or gas export infrastructure at Kharg Island, Bandar Abbas, or Asaluyeh between 2026-08-02 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 55, "resolution": "YES if at least two major international news agencies report a US or Israeli strike on Iranian oil or gas export facilities at Kharg Island, Bandar Abbas, or Asaluyeh between 2026-08-02 and 2026-09-30; otherwise NO.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 10 ], "id": "KKR-20260801-23", "date_issued": "2026-08-01", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-01_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-01_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — at least two major international news agencies report a US or Israeli strike on Iranian oil or gas export facilities at Kharg Island, Bandar Abbas, or Asaluyeh between 2026-08-02 and 2026-09-30 — is not met on or before 2026-09-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-01T16:55:29.613538+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3822ac403b539e6a40cacd89f7708efbf4d6d60a987248dea3839b35537f9012", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Same basis as KKR-20260801-03. Ruled across all 5 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The 10-year US Treasury constant maturity yield closes at or above 5.00 percent on at least one trading day between 2026-08-03 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 30, "resolution": "YES if the US Treasury daily par yield curve shows the 10-year rate at or above 5.00 percent for any date between 2026-08-03 and 2026-12-31; otherwise NO.", "deadline": "2026-12-31", "citations": [ 12 ], "id": "KKR-20260801-24", "date_issued": "2026-08-01", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-01_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-01_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — the US Treasury daily par yield curve shows the 10-year rate at or above 5.00 percent for any date between 2026-08-03 and 2026-12-31 — is not met on or before 2026-12-31; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-01T16:55:29.613547+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a6c28051d7a58ba675d9f1677075c828998d72c28436e59a42c43b1dba06c26a", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 5 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_superseded": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_corrected": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_correction": "CORRECTED from keyless. cite_integrity finds this entry UNSUPPORTED: none of its 1 cited item(s) shares discriminating vocabulary with the claim. A KEYLESS ruling asserts the entry went beyond its declared priors; where the priors ground nothing, there is no readable prior to have gone beyond and the assertion is unsupportable. The forecaster may have held the right item in view and cited badly - the record cannot say. 4.03 defaults KEYED where the determination cannot be made, and the determination doctrine's own rule requires taking the reading that does not inflate the faculty-bearing count. Keyed by rule, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_authority": "Ruled by the assistant at the operator's explicit delegation, under the determination doctrine of 2026-08-04 rev. 2. Recorded as the assistant's ruling, not the operator's." }, { "statement": "Gianni Infantino ceases to hold the FIFA presidency by resignation, removal, or formal suspension between 2026-08-02 and 2026-12-18.", "domain": "political", "probability": 25, "resolution": "YES if FIFA or two major international news outlets report that Infantino resigned, was removed, or was formally suspended as FIFA president between 2026-08-02 and 2026-12-18; otherwise NO.", "deadline": "2026-12-18", "citations": [ 8, 14 ], "id": "KKR-20260801-25", "date_issued": "2026-08-01", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-01_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-01_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — FIFA or two major international news outlets report that Infantino resigned, was removed, or was formally suspended as FIFA president between 2026-08-02 and 2026-12-18 — is not met on or before 2026-12-18; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-01T16:55:29.613555+00:00", "seal_sha256": "bd36dbfe581cc615ea6c7d4959eb1f134301ff5289e5a53157e72de0b78b25be", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Same basis as KKR-20260801-08. Ruled across all 6 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "CISA adds an Adobe Campaign Classic vulnerability first disclosed between 2026-07-28 and 2026-08-01 to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-08-02 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 22, "resolution": "YES if the CISA KEV catalog lists an Adobe Campaign Classic entry with dateAdded between 2026-08-02 and 2026-10-30; otherwise NO.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 4 ], "id": "KKR-20260801-26", "date_issued": "2026-08-01", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-01_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-01_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "failure_condition": "the condition stated in this entry's resolution basis — the CISA KEV catalog lists an Adobe Campaign Classic entry with dateAdded between 2026-08-02 and 2026-10-30 — is not met on or before 2026-10-30; absence at the deadline scores this entry a MISS.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-01T16:55:29.613564+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8edc1dde9c00f9433c192bdde3ba73eb07a3059d362e87eb40b997b2b92be846", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Same basis as KKR-20260801-09. Ruled across all 8 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "On 2026-08-15, a drone strike targeting a military installation in Kharkiv, Ukraine, will be confirmed by at least two independent sources from hostile sides (RU, UA) with no casualties reported.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "At least two independent sources from hostile sides (RU and UA) report a drone strike on a military installation in Kharkiv, Ukraine, with no casualties stated in the corroborating reports, between 2026-08-15 and 2026-08-15.", "deadline": "2026-08-15", "citations": [ 13 ], "failure_condition": "No report from at least two independent sources from hostile sides (RU and UA) confirms a drone strike on a military installation in Kharkiv, Ukraine, with no casualties stated.", "id": "KKR-20260802-01", "date_issued": "2026-08-02", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-02_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-02_1501.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] The closest match is a TASS report (Aug 15, 2026) of a Russian MoD claim that Geran drones destroyed a military refueling point in Verbovka, Kharkiv Oblast, on the previous day (Aug 14); the ISW/Critical Threats assessment for Aug 15, 2026 records no Kharkiv City military-installation drone strike and lists Russian MoD drone claims for Chernihiv Oblast targets; Ukrainian officials reported only civilian-area strikes in Kharkiv around those dates.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-02T15:02:58.300318+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7a74c4796e8da48965ff3f4b1ec02aea5ae85e131c3956e7bdf2275b319c56c1", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "cited prior [13] concerns Spanish migration politics; no listed prior touches Ukraine, drones, or military installations, so the outcome is not deducible from them", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-03", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The closest match is a TASS report (Aug 15, 2026) of a Russian MoD claim that Geran drones destroyed a military refueling point in Verbovka, Kharkiv Oblast, on the previous day (Aug 14); the ISW/Critical Threats assessment for Aug 15, 2026 records no Kharkiv City military-installation drone strike and lists Russian MoD drone claims for Chernihiv Oblast targets; Ukrainian officials reported only civilian-area strikes in Kharkiv around those dates." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-12, a cyberattack exploiting a newly cataloged vulnerability in Google Chrome will result in the compromise of at least 10,000 user accounts on public-facing platforms.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "At least 10,000 user accounts on public-facing platforms are compromised due to a cyberattack exploiting a vulnerability in Google Chrome, confirmed by at least two independent cybersecurity firms between 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-12.", "deadline": "2026-09-12", "citations": [ 10 ], "failure_condition": "No confirmed cyberattack exploiting a Google Chrome vulnerability results in the compromise of 10,000 or more user accounts on public-facing platforms between 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-12.", "id": "KKR-20260802-02", "date_issued": "2026-08-02", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-02_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-02_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-02T15:02:58.300464+00:00", "seal_sha256": "586608d584833c2d18ee74801cf377d97575dee7d5301b49c601f5baffc9d9d3", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 4 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_superseded": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_corrected": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_correction": "CORRECTED from keyless. cite_integrity finds this entry UNSUPPORTED: none of its 1 cited item(s) shares discriminating vocabulary with the claim. A KEYLESS ruling asserts the entry went beyond its declared priors; where the priors ground nothing, there is no readable prior to have gone beyond and the assertion is unsupportable. The forecaster may have held the right item in view and cited badly - the record cannot say. 4.03 defaults KEYED where the determination cannot be made, and the determination doctrine's own rule requires taking the reading that does not inflate the faculty-bearing count. Keyed by rule, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_authority": "Ruled by the assistant at the operator's explicit delegation, under the determination doctrine of 2026-08-04 rev. 2. Recorded as the assistant's ruling, not the operator's." }, { "statement": "On 2026-10-05, a wildfire in Spokane, Washington, will lead to the evacuation of at least 5,000 residents, confirmed by a state emergency management agency.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 40, "resolution": "A state emergency management agency confirms that at least 5,000 residents were evacuated due to a wildfire in Spokane, Washington, on 2026-10-05.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 14 ], "failure_condition": "No state emergency management agency confirms that at least 5,000 residents were evacuated due to a wildfire in Spokane, Washington, on 2026-10-05.", "id": "KKR-20260802-03", "date_issued": "2026-08-02", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-02_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-02_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-02T15:02:58.300503+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6219e000138e855c08bf8fd8d79e23503f10ed218e12557c1e3ff4c5368e585f", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports Washington wildfires in early August; the claim fixes a single date, 2026-10-05, two months out. Ruled across all 4 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-11-01 and 2026-11-03, a new financial regulation in the European Union will be enacted requiring all banks to report real-time transaction data to a central authority.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 35, "resolution": "A new financial regulation enacted by the European Union between 2026-11-01 and 2026-11-03 mandates that all banks report real-time transaction data to a central authority.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 12 ], "failure_condition": "No new financial regulation enacted by the European Union between 2026-11-01 and 2026-11-03 mandates real-time transaction reporting by banks to a central authority.", "id": "KKR-20260802-04", "date_issued": "2026-08-02", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-02_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-02_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-02T15:02:58.300521+00:00", "seal_sha256": "104d6da5decac89c2830a2cf2d1c1f8934beb4c61d7d389f6030c1ca20d8f845", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 4 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_superseded": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_corrected": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_correction": "CORRECTED from keyless. cite_integrity finds this entry UNSUPPORTED: none of its 1 cited item(s) shares discriminating vocabulary with the claim. A KEYLESS ruling asserts the entry went beyond its declared priors; where the priors ground nothing, there is no readable prior to have gone beyond and the assertion is unsupportable. The forecaster may have held the right item in view and cited badly - the record cannot say. 4.03 defaults KEYED where the determination cannot be made, and the determination doctrine's own rule requires taking the reading that does not inflate the faculty-bearing count. Keyed by rule, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_authority": "Ruled by the assistant at the operator's explicit delegation, under the determination doctrine of 2026-08-04 rev. 2. Recorded as the assistant's ruling, not the operator's." }, { "statement": "On 2026-12-18, a terrorist attack in Beirut, Lebanon, will result in at least five fatalities, confirmed by at least two independent sources from hostile sides (AXIS, WEST).", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 20, "resolution": "At least five fatalities from a terrorist attack in Beirut, Lebanon, are confirmed by at least two independent sources from hostile sides (AXIS and WEST) on 2026-12-18.", "deadline": "2026-12-18", "citations": [ 7 ], "failure_condition": "No confirmed terrorist attack in Beirut, Lebanon, results in five or more fatalities, as verified by at least two independent sources from hostile sides (AXIS and WEST) on 2026-12-18.", "id": "KKR-20260802-05", "date_issued": "2026-08-02", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-02_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-02_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-02T15:02:58.300535+00:00", "seal_sha256": "cff89116eadb18fe17778be7e668225e3af05870ede5ed668c612066edda4105", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 5 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_superseded": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_corrected": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_correction": "CORRECTED from keyless. cite_integrity finds this entry UNSUPPORTED: none of its 1 cited item(s) shares discriminating vocabulary with the claim. A KEYLESS ruling asserts the entry went beyond its declared priors; where the priors ground nothing, there is no readable prior to have gone beyond and the assertion is unsupportable. The forecaster may have held the right item in view and cited badly - the record cannot say. 4.03 defaults KEYED where the determination cannot be made, and the determination doctrine's own rule requires taking the reading that does not inflate the faculty-bearing count. Keyed by rule, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_authority": "Ruled by the assistant at the operator's explicit delegation, under the determination doctrine of 2026-08-04 rev. 2. Recorded as the assistant's ruling, not the operator's." }, { "statement": "On 2026-09-08, a major earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher will be recorded in New Zealand, confirmed by the USGS Significant Quakes feed.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 30, "resolution": "A major earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher is recorded in New Zealand, confirmed by the USGS Significant Quakes feed on 2026-09-08.", "deadline": "2026-09-08", "citations": [ 18 ], "failure_condition": "No major earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher is recorded in New Zealand, as confirmed by the USGS Significant Quakes feed, on 2026-09-08.", "id": "KKR-20260802-06", "date_issued": "2026-08-02", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-02_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-02_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-02T15:02:58.300551+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4b3aad084236dfd09668f34ba5b878b1fe1b9974e3d39f3481ae80cb06c72a7b", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports a Green M5.6 in New Zealand; the claim requires M6.5 or higher on one named date. The claim requires a numeric threshold no prior reports as reached. A prior that supplies the current level makes the gap measurable; it does not make the level deducible. Ruled across all 4 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "On 2026-11-25, a political scandal involving a U.S. federal official will lead to a formal investigation by Congress, confirmed by a major news outlet.", "domain": "political", "probability": 40, "resolution": "A formal investigation by Congress into a political scandal involving a U.S. federal official is confirmed by a major news outlet on 2026-11-25.", "deadline": "2026-11-25", "citations": [ 11 ], "failure_condition": "No formal investigation by Congress into a political scandal involving a U.S. federal official is confirmed by a major news outlet on 2026-11-25.", "id": "KKR-20260802-07", "date_issued": "2026-08-02", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-02_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-02_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-02T15:02:58.300563+00:00", "seal_sha256": "23a2d9d2ebf6dd68202cfffbd6efb9c449c8b16782d139dc47dc0300f3eb649b", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 4 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_superseded": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_corrected": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_correction": "CORRECTED from keyless. cite_integrity finds this entry UNSUPPORTED: none of its 1 cited item(s) shares discriminating vocabulary with the claim. A KEYLESS ruling asserts the entry went beyond its declared priors; where the priors ground nothing, there is no readable prior to have gone beyond and the assertion is unsupportable. The forecaster may have held the right item in view and cited badly - the record cannot say. 4.03 defaults KEYED where the determination cannot be made, and the determination doctrine's own rule requires taking the reading that does not inflate the faculty-bearing count. Keyed by rule, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_authority": "Ruled by the assistant at the operator's explicit delegation, under the determination doctrine of 2026-08-04 rev. 2. Recorded as the assistant's ruling, not the operator's." }, { "statement": "Between 2026-12-05 and 2026-12-07, a new military offensive will begin in the Gaza City area, confirmed by at least two independent sources from hostile sides (IL, PS) with no casualties reported.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 35, "resolution": "A new military offensive in Gaza City is confirmed by at least two independent sources from hostile sides (IL and PS) with no casualties reported, between 2026-12-05 and 2026-12-07.", "deadline": "2026-12-07", "citations": [ 3 ], "failure_condition": "No new military offensive in Gaza City is confirmed by at least two independent sources from hostile sides (IL and PS) with no casualties reported, between 2026-12-05 and 2026-12-07.", "id": "KKR-20260802-08", "date_issued": "2026-08-02", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-02_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-02_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-02T15:02:58.300575+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6414934b995aff386800a32a15117075dd31ab9c32f8d7b80898b4046fab79c5", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_superseded": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_corrected": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_correction": "CORRECTED from keyless. cite_integrity finds this entry UNSUPPORTED: none of its 1 cited item(s) shares discriminating vocabulary with the claim. A KEYLESS ruling asserts the entry went beyond its declared priors; where the priors ground nothing, there is no readable prior to have gone beyond and the assertion is unsupportable. The forecaster may have held the right item in view and cited badly - the record cannot say. 4.03 defaults KEYED where the determination cannot be made, and the determination doctrine's own rule requires taking the reading that does not inflate the faculty-bearing count. Keyed by rule, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_authority": "Ruled by the assistant at the operator's explicit delegation, under the determination doctrine of 2026-08-04 rev. 2. Recorded as the assistant's ruling, not the operator's." }, { "statement": "Between 2026-11-01 and 2026-11-03, a new financial regulation in the European Union will be enacted requiring all banks to report real-time transaction data to a central authority.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "A new financial regulation enacted by the European Union between 2026-11-01 and 2026-11-03 mandates that all banks report real-time transaction data to a central authority.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 12 ], "failure_condition": "No new financial regulation enacted by the European Union between 2026-11-01 and 2026-11-03 mandates real-time transaction reporting by banks to a central authority.", "id": "KKR-20260803-01", "date_issued": "2026-08-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-03T22:19:50.935373+00:00", "seal_sha256": "09dfea8144b093b9a39244bb25adc11b6fd867a4f77ea53a11c23b9f372a31fd", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. A climatological control emits the same probability for every row in a reference class, computed from this ledger’s own resolved history; it makes no claim to exceed its inputs and cannot, by construction. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "A drone attack on a Russian beach in Crimea kills at least seven people between 2026-08-03 and 2026-08-10.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "At least seven people are confirmed dead from a drone attack on a Russian beach in Crimea, as reported by at least two independently verified news outlets with distinct sources, including one from a hostile side.", "deadline": "2026-08-12", "citations": [ 15, 16 ], "failure_condition": "No credible public report confirms seven or more fatalities from a drone attack on a Russian beach in Crimea during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260804-01", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_2351.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_0013.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] Reuters, Moscow Times, Meduza and Euronews dated Aug 3 2026 report the beach drone strike that killed six to seven people, including three children, occurred at Arkhipo-Osipovka near Gelendzhik in Krasnodar Krai on the Russian mainland; officials in Crimea reported four killed there that night, not at a beach.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T00:14:55.499092+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1f7f57eefc352550ebfdab76c0e6e1cd3a3baf91b64eda944a16c6f744a73409", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior [15] reports \"Drone slams into Russian beach, killing at least 7 people\" (Al Jazeera, 03 Aug) and [16] \"Russia says seven killed and 40 injured by Ukrainian drone\" (BBC World, 03 Aug). The outcome is stated in the priors and 03 Aug falls inside the claim window. Keyed by arithmetic, not by attribution. Ruled across all 5 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Reuters, Moscow Times, Meduza and Euronews dated Aug 3 2026 report the beach drone strike that killed six to seven people, including three children, occurred at Arkhipo-Osipovka near Gelendzhik in Krasnodar Krai on the Russian mainland; officials in Crimea reported four killed there that night, not at a beach." } }, { "statement": "A cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-18577 compromises at least one critical infrastructure system in the United States between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-11.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "At least one confirmed public report from a U.S. federal agency, CISA, or a major news outlet identifies a successful exploitation of CVE-2026-18577 leading to a breach of a critical infrastructure system.", "deadline": "2026-08-13", "citations": [ 11, 16 ], "failure_condition": "No public report from a credible source confirms a successful exploitation of CVE-2026-18577 in a U.S. critical infrastructure system during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260804-02", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_2351.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_0013.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] Rapid7, Arctic Wolf, Huntress and CISA KEV materials from early Aug 2026 confirm CVE-2026-18577 in N-able N-central was exploited in the wild against MSP and enterprise environments, but no federal agency, CISA advisory or major outlet identified a resulting breach of a US critical infrastructure system in the Aug 4-11 window.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T00:14:55.499296+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4f3eb4385844d7ca15ee79336603cd040acd9fbb5f6526d0193a38352773121e", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 5 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Rapid7, Arctic Wolf, Huntress and CISA KEV materials from early Aug 2026 confirm CVE-2026-18577 in N-able N-central was exploited in the wild against MSP and enterprise environments, but no federal agency, CISA advisory or major outlet identified a resulting breach of a US critical infrastructure system in the Aug 4-11 window." } }, { "statement": "At least one major wildfire in the U.S. Southwest results in over 1,000 evacuations between 2026-08-03 and 2026-08-10.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 40, "resolution": "At least one official public report from a U.S. state emergency management agency or a major news outlet confirms that over 1,000 people were evacuated due to a wildfire in the Southwest U.S. (Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada) during the event window.", "deadline": "2026-08-12", "citations": [ 8, 12 ], "failure_condition": "No official or major news report confirms over 1,000 evacuations due to a wildfire in the U.S. Southwest during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260804-03", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_2351.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_0013.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] The Bug Fire that ignited Aug 8 2026 on the California-Nevada line forced mass evacuations in Washoe County Nevada; the county emergency site reported roughly 3,800 households evacuated by Aug 9 and major outlets including Newsweek described thousands of people evacuated, inside the Aug 3-10 window.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T00:14:55.499342+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9b634ffbd728e6cbd32a963df53bb738f6457e62e23843491e90d46dabfa700b", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports evacuations in Spokane, Washington; the claim is scoped to the U.S. Southwest (Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada). Wrong region. Ruled across all 6 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The Bug Fire that ignited Aug 8 2026 on the California-Nevada line forced mass evacuations in Washoe County Nevada; the county emergency site reported roughly 3,800 households evacuated by Aug 9 and major outlets including Newsweek described thousands of people evacuated, inside the Aug 3-10 window." } }, { "statement": "Iran and the United States announce a formal diplomatic dialogue on the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-11.", "domain": "political", "probability": 20, "resolution": "At least two independently verified news outlets, one from each country, report the official launch of a diplomatic dialogue between Iran and the United States regarding the Strait of Hormuz during the event window.", "deadline": "2026-08-13", "citations": [ 11, 12, 21 ], "failure_condition": "No credible public report confirms the formal announcement of a diplomatic dialogue between Iran and the U.S. on the Strait of Hormuz during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260804-04", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_2351.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_0013.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] Axios and CNBC dated Aug 4-5 2026 reported the US, Iran and Oman were nearing an interim Hormuz arrangement, and ABC reported messages exchanged through intermediaries; Iranian state-carried remarks by FM Araghchi around Aug 8 said negotiations with the US could not resume, and no official launch of a bilateral dialogue was announced in the window.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T00:14:55.499373+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8b26f626026f45e9c74aff79fdf1e21f8189bf33a306663f375f8b8cb45d2056", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 5 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Axios and CNBC dated Aug 4-5 2026 reported the US, Iran and Oman were nearing an interim Hormuz arrangement, and ABC reported messages exchanged through intermediaries; Iranian state-carried remarks by FM Araghchi around Aug 8 said negotiations with the US could not resume, and no official launch of a bilateral dialogue was announced in the window." } }, { "statement": "A new ransomware variant named INC Ransomware is linked to a data breach affecting over 50,000 U.S. government employees between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-11.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 35, "resolution": "At least two independent news outlets or a CISA advisory confirms that the INC Ransomware is responsible for a data breach affecting more than 50,000 U.S. government employees during the event window.", "deadline": "2026-08-13", "citations": [ 6, 14 ], "failure_condition": "No credible public report links INC Ransomware to a breach affecting over 50,000 U.S. government employees during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260804-05", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_2351.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_0013.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] The Hacker News, Resecurity and incident trackers show INC Ransomware highly active in late July and early Aug 2026 with government and private victims, but no CISA advisory or pair of outlets ties INC to a breach affecting more than 50,000 US government employees in the Aug 4-11 window.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T00:14:55.499399+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3899998f1af8fefc30374fad1e580bf3d8d7fa76aef41c42752f2f7d4739ac29", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports the PNLD breach in the UK; the claim names INC Ransomware and US government employees. Different incident. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The Hacker News, Resecurity and incident trackers show INC Ransomware highly active in late July and early Aug 2026 with government and private victims, but no CISA advisory or pair of outlets ties INC to a breach affecting more than 50,000 US government employees in the Aug 4-11 window." } }, { "statement": "The U.S. House Ethics Committee formally censures Representative Chuck Edwards between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-11.", "domain": "political", "probability": 50, "resolution": "A public record from the U.S. House of Representatives or a major news outlet confirms that the House Ethics Committee has issued a formal censure of Representative Chuck Edwards during the event window.", "deadline": "2026-08-13", "citations": [ 7, 8 ], "failure_condition": "No public record confirms a formal censure of Representative Chuck Edwards by the U.S. House Ethics Committee during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260804-06", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_2351.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_0013.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] CBS, Axios, NPR and The Hill dated Aug 3 2026 report the House Ethics Committee recommended censure of Rep. Chuck Edwards and said it would offer a privileged resolution; the House stood in recess until Aug 31, so no censure was enacted in the Aug 4-11 window.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T00:14:55.499425+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4fb45e108dc94b7ec3360581769bc28377d7f02f0035176b94673651943be102", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior names the same representative and the same proceeding: \"US House ethics panel recommends censure for Republican Chuck Edwards\". The claim asserts completion of a censure process the priors report in motion. Ruled across all 6 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "CBS, Axios, NPR and The Hill dated Aug 3 2026 report the House Ethics Committee recommended censure of Rep. Chuck Edwards and said it would offer a privileged resolution; the House stood in recess until Aug 31, so no censure was enacted in the Aug 4-11 window." } }, { "statement": "The U.S. Senate confirms Todd Blanche as Attorney General by a vote of at least 60 in favor between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-11.", "domain": "political", "probability": 45, "resolution": "A public record from the U.S. Senate or a major news outlet confirms that Todd Blanche was confirmed as Attorney General by a vote of 60 or more senators during the event window.", "deadline": "2026-08-13", "citations": [ 18, 19 ], "failure_condition": "The U.S. Senate does not confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General by a vote of at least 60 during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260804-07", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_2351.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_0013.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] Washington Post, CNN, NPR and NBC report the Senate confirmed Todd Blanche as Attorney General early Saturday Aug 8 2026 by a vote of 50-49.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T00:14:55.499455+00:00", "seal_sha256": "718ea9f4e340c08fa7b8a9823c314e6cda05dad519c66856c6f7086d45aca8b9", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Confirmation is foreshadowed by the priors, but the claim adds a vote margin of at least 60 that no prior supplies. Conjunctive claims are ruled on the element the priors do not reach. The claim requires a numeric threshold no prior reports as reached. A prior that supplies the current level makes the gap measurable; it does not make the level deducible. Ruled across all 4 candidate items behind t", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Washington Post, CNN, NPR and NBC report the Senate confirmed Todd Blanche as Attorney General early Saturday Aug 8 2026 by a vote of 50-49." } }, { "statement": "A cyberattack on a major U.S. financial institution results in the theft of over $100 million in digital assets between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-11.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "At least two independent news outlets or a CISA advisory confirms that a cyberattack on a U.S. financial institution led to the theft of over $100 million in digital assets during the event window.", "deadline": "2026-08-13", "citations": [ 4, 5 ], "failure_condition": "No credible public report confirms a cyberattack on a U.S. financial institution resulting in the theft of over $100 million in digital assets during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260804-08", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_2351.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_0013.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] The large digital-asset theft in the period was the Coldcard hardware wallet compromise, reported around early Aug 2026 at roughly 100 to 130 million dollars in bitcoin, but Coldcard maker Coinkite is a Canadian wallet vendor, not a US financial institution; Reuters-cited reporting on breaches at Blackstone, Moodys and CME described data theft and extortion, not a nine-figure digital-asset theft.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T00:14:55.499479+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1d20b879f8084ac3c94b85b5b3506a9374fd23a73db5683655dd67a882d9c9e2", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_superseded": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_corrected": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_correction": "CORRECTED from keyless. cite_integrity finds this entry UNSUPPORTED: none of its 2 cited item(s) shares discriminating vocabulary with the claim. A KEYLESS ruling asserts the entry went beyond its declared priors; where the priors ground nothing, there is no readable prior to have gone beyond and the assertion is unsupportable. The forecaster may have held the right item in view and cited badly - the record cannot say. 4.03 defaults KEYED where the determination cannot be made, and the determination doctrine's own rule requires taking the reading that does not inflate the faculty-bearing count. Keyed by rule, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_authority": "Ruled by the assistant at the operator's explicit delegation, under the determination doctrine of 2026-08-04 rev. 2. Recorded as the assistant's ruling, not the operator's.", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The large digital-asset theft in the period was the Coldcard hardware wallet compromise, reported around early Aug 2026 at roughly 100 to 130 million dollars in bitcoin, but Coldcard maker Coinkite is a Canadian wallet vendor, not a US financial institution; Reuters-cited reporting on breaches at Blackstone, Moodys and CME described data theft and extortion, not a nine-figure digital-asset theft." } }, { "statement": "A drone attack on a Russian beach in Crimea kills at least seven people between 2026-08-03 and 2026-08-10.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 25, "resolution": "At least seven people are confirmed dead from a drone attack on a Russian beach in Crimea, as reported by at least two independently verified news outlets with distinct sources, including one from a hostile side.", "deadline": "2026-08-12", "citations": [ 15, 16 ], "failure_condition": "No credible public report confirms seven or more fatalities from a drone attack on a Russian beach in Crimea during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260804-09", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_2351.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_0013.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] Duplicate of KKR-20260804-01: the six to seven beach deaths of Aug 3 2026 were at Arkhipo-Osipovka in Krasnodar Krai on the mainland per Reuters, Moscow Times and Meduza; Crimea itself recorded four deaths, not at a beach.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T00:17:45.652359+00:00", "seal_sha256": "20ef4b004d97594fa16692f5fe06efa2f57c05914d14dd602db4ee335488e83c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. A climatological control emits the same probability for every row in a reference class, computed from this ledger’s own resolved history; it makes no claim to exceed its inputs and cannot, by construction. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Duplicate of KKR-20260804-01: the six to seven beach deaths of Aug 3 2026 were at Arkhipo-Osipovka in Krasnodar Krai on the mainland per Reuters, Moscow Times and Meduza; Crimea itself recorded four deaths, not at a beach." } }, { "statement": "A cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-18577 compromises at least one critical infrastructure system in the United States between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-11.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "At least one confirmed public report from a U.S. federal agency, CISA, or a major news outlet identifies a successful exploitation of CVE-2026-18577 leading to a breach of a critical infrastructure system.", "deadline": "2026-08-13", "citations": [ 11, 16 ], "failure_condition": "No public report from a credible source confirms a successful exploitation of CVE-2026-18577 in a U.S. critical infrastructure system during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260804-10", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_2351.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_0013.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] Duplicate of KKR-20260804-02: CVE-2026-18577 exploitation in the wild is confirmed by Rapid7, Huntress and CISA KEV materials, but no source identifies a resulting breach of a US critical infrastructure system in the Aug 4-11 window.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T00:17:45.652492+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4f3eb4385844d7ca15ee79336603cd040acd9fbb5f6526d0193a38352773121e", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. A climatological control emits the same probability for every row in a reference class, computed from this ledger’s own resolved history; it makes no claim to exceed its inputs and cannot, by construction. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Duplicate of KKR-20260804-02: CVE-2026-18577 exploitation in the wild is confirmed by Rapid7, Huntress and CISA KEV materials, but no source identifies a resulting breach of a US critical infrastructure system in the Aug 4-11 window." } }, { "statement": "At least one major wildfire in the U.S. Southwest results in over 1,000 evacuations between 2026-08-03 and 2026-08-10.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 25, "resolution": "At least one official public report from a U.S. state emergency management agency or a major news outlet confirms that over 1,000 people were evacuated due to a wildfire in the Southwest U.S. (Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada) during the event window.", "deadline": "2026-08-12", "citations": [ 8, 12 ], "failure_condition": "No official or major news report confirms over 1,000 evacuations due to a wildfire in the U.S. Southwest during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260804-11", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_2351.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_0013.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] Duplicate of KKR-20260804-03: Washoe County Nevada reported roughly 3,800 households evacuated for the Bug Fire by Aug 9 2026 and major outlets described thousands of people evacuated within the window.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T00:17:45.652517+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8a877fbbe47fecd816f422b9e8afb30bfc5d94f3be1ce1dd995d301881f49dde", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. A climatological control emits the same probability for every row in a reference class, computed from this ledger’s own resolved history; it makes no claim to exceed its inputs and cannot, by construction. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Duplicate of KKR-20260804-03: Washoe County Nevada reported roughly 3,800 households evacuated for the Bug Fire by Aug 9 2026 and major outlets described thousands of people evacuated within the window." } }, { "statement": "Iran and the United States announce a formal diplomatic dialogue on the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-11.", "domain": "political", "probability": 25, "resolution": "At least two independently verified news outlets, one from each country, report the official launch of a diplomatic dialogue between Iran and the United States regarding the Strait of Hormuz during the event window.", "deadline": "2026-08-13", "citations": [ 11, 12, 21 ], "failure_condition": "No credible public report confirms the formal announcement of a diplomatic dialogue between Iran and the U.S. on the Strait of Hormuz during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260804-12", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_2351.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_0013.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] Duplicate of KKR-20260804-04: Aug 4-5 reporting by Axios and CNBC describes a near-final trilateral Hormuz arrangement via Oman, while Iranian officials publicly ruled out resumed talks with the US; no official launch of a bilateral dialogue was announced in the window.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T00:17:45.652532+00:00", "seal_sha256": "84c2ee3fcd7c230af6686282e7e7c1f5756f0aa3433de1b5f4aba70cd464b1c1", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. A climatological control emits the same probability for every row in a reference class, computed from this ledger’s own resolved history; it makes no claim to exceed its inputs and cannot, by construction. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Duplicate of KKR-20260804-04: Aug 4-5 reporting by Axios and CNBC describes a near-final trilateral Hormuz arrangement via Oman, while Iranian officials publicly ruled out resumed talks with the US; no official launch of a bilateral dialogue was announced in the window." } }, { "statement": "A new ransomware variant named INC Ransomware is linked to a data breach affecting over 50,000 U.S. government employees between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-11.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "At least two independent news outlets or a CISA advisory confirms that the INC Ransomware is responsible for a data breach affecting more than 50,000 U.S. government employees during the event window.", "deadline": "2026-08-13", "citations": [ 6, 14 ], "failure_condition": "No credible public report links INC Ransomware to a breach affecting over 50,000 U.S. government employees during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260804-13", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_2351.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_0013.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] Duplicate of KKR-20260804-05: INC Ransomware activity in the window is documented, but no CISA advisory or two outlets confirm a breach affecting more than 50,000 US government employees.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T00:17:45.652544+00:00", "seal_sha256": "679dd9453edcd55d6447e4ba7f1450fb82daea1e6826ee8babea68189cddd1c2", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. A climatological control emits the same probability for every row in a reference class, computed from this ledger’s own resolved history; it makes no claim to exceed its inputs and cannot, by construction. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Duplicate of KKR-20260804-05: INC Ransomware activity in the window is documented, but no CISA advisory or two outlets confirm a breach affecting more than 50,000 US government employees." } }, { "statement": "The U.S. House Ethics Committee formally censures Representative Chuck Edwards between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-11.", "domain": "political", "probability": 25, "resolution": "A public record from the U.S. House of Representatives or a major news outlet confirms that the House Ethics Committee has issued a formal censure of Representative Chuck Edwards during the event window.", "deadline": "2026-08-13", "citations": [ 7, 8 ], "failure_condition": "No public record confirms a formal censure of Representative Chuck Edwards by the U.S. House Ethics Committee during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260804-14", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_2351.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_0013.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] Duplicate of KKR-20260804-06: the Ethics Committee recommendation of censure came Aug 3 and the House remained in recess until Aug 31, so no formal censure occurred in the window.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T00:17:45.652557+00:00", "seal_sha256": "12553c2bd8ec97ca1fc9e8f8dcee94fe326ed6c4433a00788ea71d2b8119ff24", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. A climatological control emits the same probability for every row in a reference class, computed from this ledger’s own resolved history; it makes no claim to exceed its inputs and cannot, by construction. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Duplicate of KKR-20260804-06: the Ethics Committee recommendation of censure came Aug 3 and the House remained in recess until Aug 31, so no formal censure occurred in the window." } }, { "statement": "The U.S. Senate confirms Todd Blanche as Attorney General by a vote of at least 60 in favor between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-11.", "domain": "political", "probability": 25, "resolution": "A public record from the U.S. Senate or a major news outlet confirms that Todd Blanche was confirmed as Attorney General by a vote of 60 or more senators during the event window.", "deadline": "2026-08-13", "citations": [ 18, 19 ], "failure_condition": "The U.S. Senate does not confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General by a vote of at least 60 during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260804-15", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_2351.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_0013.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] Duplicate of KKR-20260804-07: Blanche was confirmed Aug 8 2026 by 50-49, short of 60.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T00:17:45.652569+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0d6834169ae3b85bd2c874141d8eb32d5cfe5194c3134e9a4d338ea5fd7ecf4d", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. A climatological control emits the same probability for every row in a reference class, computed from this ledger’s own resolved history; it makes no claim to exceed its inputs and cannot, by construction. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Duplicate of KKR-20260804-07: Blanche was confirmed Aug 8 2026 by 50-49, short of 60." } }, { "statement": "A cyberattack on a major U.S. financial institution results in the theft of over $100 million in digital assets between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-11.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "At least two independent news outlets or a CISA advisory confirms that a cyberattack on a U.S. financial institution led to the theft of over $100 million in digital assets during the event window.", "deadline": "2026-08-13", "citations": [ 4, 5 ], "failure_condition": "No credible public report confirms a cyberattack on a U.S. financial institution resulting in the theft of over $100 million in digital assets during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260804-16", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_2351.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_0013.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] Duplicate of KKR-20260804-08: the qualifying-scale theft was the Coldcard wallet compromise of roughly 100 to 130 million dollars in bitcoin, and Coinkite is a Canadian wallet vendor rather than a US financial institution.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T00:17:45.652582+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1d20b879f8084ac3c94b85b5b3506a9374fd23a73db5683655dd67a882d9c9e2", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. A climatological control emits the same probability for every row in a reference class, computed from this ledger’s own resolved history; it makes no claim to exceed its inputs and cannot, by construction. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Duplicate of KKR-20260804-08: the qualifying-scale theft was the Coldcard wallet compromise of roughly 100 to 130 million dollars in bitcoin, and Coinkite is a Canadian wallet vendor rather than a US financial institution." } }, { "statement": "Israeli air, drone, or artillery strikes inside Gaza City occur between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-24.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 88, "resolution": "True if Al Jazeera and BBC World each report an Israeli air, drone, or artillery strike inside Gaza City occurring between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-27", "citations": [ 22, 18 ], "failure_condition": "No Israeli strike inside Gaza City occurs during the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-17", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Al Jazeera 2026-08-18 reported an Israeli strike on a crowded cafe at the Gaza City port killing at least six; AP via PBS 08-19 reported further deadly strikes; AJ 08-24 documented continuing lethal strikes across Gaza in the window.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:53:44.336059+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5ef75dafedf1987d2f91c0810c4054b3715be12c19a8da6b29a7217b69dedb16", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports the same campaign in progress: \"Israel defies Trump’s peace plan as it escalates deadly attacks\". Ruled across all 4 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Al Jazeera 2026-08-18 reported an Israeli strike on a crowded cafe at the Gaza City port killing at least six; AP via PBS 08-19 reported further deadly strikes; AJ 08-24 documented continuing lethal strikes across Gaza in the window." } }, { "statement": "Russia's Ministry of Defence claims 100 or more Ukrainian drones destroyed or intercepted over a single night between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-24.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 55, "resolution": "True if Russia's Ministry of Defence publicly claims destroying or intercepting 100 or more Ukrainian drones over one overnight period between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-24, per wire reporting.", "deadline": "2026-08-27", "citations": [ 3, 19 ], "failure_condition": "No single-night MoD claim reaches 100 drones during the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-18", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] CNN 2026-08-20, citing Russian Defense Ministry statements via TASS, reported the ministry claimed 791 Ukrainian drones intercepted and destroyed overnight on 08-18 to 08-19, inside the 08-10 to 08-24 window and far above the 100 threshold.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:53:44.336976+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d927e97ada2d702e4c2b3a88f8d92861201f623c73187b67552bc2365e6260cd", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "The claim requires a single-night MoD claim of 100 or more drones. Priors report the war, not that count. The claim requires a numeric threshold no prior reports as reached. A prior that supplies the current level makes the gap measurable; it does not make the level deducible. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "CNN 2026-08-20, citing Russian Defense Ministry statements via TASS, reported the ministry claimed 791 Ukrainian drones intercepted and destroyed overnight on 08-18 to 08-19, inside the 08-10 to 08-24 window and far above the 100 threshold." } }, { "statement": "Front-month Brent crude settles at or below 75.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 45, "resolution": "True if front-month Brent futures post a settlement price at or below 75.00 US dollars per barrel on any trading day between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 15, 20 ], "failure_condition": "Every Brent front-month settlement in the window prints above 75.00 US dollars.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-19", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:53:44.337001+00:00", "seal_sha256": "aa18835c012ae13c1b07a7afb02e14daca13d87e5e7100340aab3bd59e868cb9", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports oil below $83; the claim requires a Brent settlement at or below $75.00. The claim requires a numeric threshold no prior reports as reached. A prior that supplies the current level makes the gap measurable; it does not make the level deducible. Ruled across all 4 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached ", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The FOMC raises the federal funds target range at a scheduled meeting held between 2026-08-10 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 18, "resolution": "True if an FOMC statement issued at a scheduled meeting within the window announces an increase to the federal funds target range.", "deadline": "2027-01-04", "citations": [ 18, 7 ], "failure_condition": "The target range is held or cut at every scheduled meeting in the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-20", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:53:44.337032+00:00", "seal_sha256": "072bf7615199f3285cf79aa79c5c439ad60ea0154102b19543593569a42e0cbd", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 6 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "CISA adds a CVE affecting N-able N-central to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 45, "resolution": "True if the CISA KEV catalog contains an entry for a CVE in N-able N-central carrying a date-added value between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 7 ], "failure_condition": "No N-able N-central CVE receives a KEV date-added value inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-21", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:53:44.337043+00:00", "seal_sha256": "488ee6d7f0bba25f3ab3b8ad68372a8e755d09a6508b0d17d225608db11c45c3", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Same basis as KKR-20260804-30. Ruled across all 6 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The UK Information Commissioners Office confirms a formal investigation or enforcement action over the PNLD breach between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "True if the ICO publishes a statement, case page, or enforcement notice confirming formal investigation or enforcement action regarding the PNLD breach, dated within the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 5 ], "failure_condition": "The ICO opens no formal investigation or enforcement action on PNLD in the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-22", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:53:44.337052+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5c671f8318b837bebb3f07c178be1ef516be39ebd4366ec65aa34aa2e1c31d77", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports the same breach: \"PNLD Breach Exposes U.K. Police and Government Contact Details\". A regulator opening an investigation is the ordinary next stage. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The US Senate confirms Todd Blanche as Attorney General between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 65, "resolution": "True if the Senate roll call record shows a confirmation vote approving Todd Blanche as Attorney General on a date between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 19, 1 ], "failure_condition": "No successful Senate confirmation vote on Blanche occurs within the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-23", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:53:44.337060+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6626b0194ce427db204e0b77625ba461ee4af82f3850644234a33f510a0bb816", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior names the same nominee and the same proceeding: \"Holdouts for Trump’s attorney general pick say they will advance\". Unlike KKR-20260804-07 this row states no vote-margin threshold. Ruled across all 8 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The National Interagency Fire Center posts National Preparedness Level 5 on at least one day between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-15.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 40, "resolution": "True if an NIFC daily situation report dated between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-15 states National Preparedness Level 5.", "deadline": "2026-09-17", "citations": [ 2, 17 ], "failure_condition": "NIFC preparedness level stays at 4 or lower every day of the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-24", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:53:44.337067+00:00", "seal_sha256": "73b04e6cb579dbc54903b08f620bb67cb804184d2f5f12f24e326d244a266b52", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_superseded": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_corrected": "2026-08-04", "keyed_keyless_correction": "CORRECTED from keyless. cite_integrity finds this entry UNSUPPORTED: none of its 2 cited item(s) shares discriminating vocabulary with the claim. A KEYLESS ruling asserts the entry went beyond its declared priors; where the priors ground nothing, there is no readable prior to have gone beyond and the assertion is unsupportable. The forecaster may have held the right item in view and cited badly - the record cannot say. 4.03 defaults KEYED where the determination cannot be made, and the determination doctrine's own rule requires taking the reading that does not inflate the faculty-bearing count. Keyed by rule, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_authority": "Ruled by the assistant at the operator's explicit delegation, under the determination doctrine of 2026-08-04 rev. 2. Recorded as the assistant's ruling, not the operator's." }, { "statement": "US and Iranian officials hold a confirmed direct bilateral meeting between 2026-08-10 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "True if the US State Department and Iran's foreign ministry both confirm a direct bilateral meeting between US and Iranian officials held within the window.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 4, 14, 22 ], "failure_condition": "No direct US-Iran bilateral meeting occurs in the window, mediated contact only.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-25", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:53:44.337075+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ebce2948b0913d55c5a6f9841d14c5cf64fdc3fbf78f8169d1aae1b02e37b384", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior names the same bilateral question: \"Middle East crisis live: Iran denies Trump’s claims that talks [are underway]\". Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "Israel and Palestinian armed factions in Gaza will be reported to have observed a continuous halt in strikes lasting at least 48 hours, beginning between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-24.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 20, "resolution": "True if two or more wire services or the UN report a Gaza ceasefire holding at least 48 continuous hours with a start date between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-24, confirmed by 2026-08-27.", "deadline": "2026-08-27", "citations": [ 22 ], "failure_condition": "No 48-hour continuous halt in Gaza strikes with a start date in the stated window is confirmed by two independent sources as of the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-26", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Al Jazeera tracker reports at least 4379 Israeli ceasefire violations from 2025-10-10 through 2026-08-24 with near-daily attacks; AJ 08-24 and 08-25 document lethal strikes on consecutive days; the Palestinian Health Ministry counts 1288 killed since the October ceasefire.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:53:48.987012+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0a287d7d5d2ca0cbbf15d6192803a250860656269fbc684958441bfb8418a624", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 4 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Al Jazeera tracker reports at least 4379 Israeli ceasefire violations from 2025-10-10 through 2026-08-24 with near-daily attacks; AJ 08-24 and 08-25 document lethal strikes on consecutive days; the Palestinian Health Ministry counts 1288 killed since the October ceasefire." } }, { "statement": "A UN body, the ICC, or a major human rights organization will announce it has opened a formal investigation into the 2026-08-03 Sudan army drone strike on a court session, between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-25.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 30, "resolution": "True if the UN, ICC, or a named human rights organization publicly announces a formal investigation or fact-finding inquiry into the strike, with the announcement dated between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-25, confirmed by 2026-08-28.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 24 ], "failure_condition": "No formal investigation or fact-finding inquiry into the strike is publicly announced by any of the named bodies within the stated window as of the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-27", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] BBC via Yahoo and AFP coverage of the 08-02 to 08-03 Garra al-Zawaya court strike shows the Emergency Lawyers Group demanding an independent investigation and a Tasis spokesperson urging one; no UN, ICC, or named rights organization announced opening a formal investigation dated 08-04 to 08-25.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:53:48.987159+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f5f6612afb8165cdb6b7d402b7cdda3fd39d85a532b4afc18545d7aabec4fe70", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports the Sudan army drone strike on a court session and the rights-group reaction. A formal investigation is the ordinary next stage of an event the priors supply. Ruled across all 4 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "BBC via Yahoo and AFP coverage of the 08-02 to 08-03 Garra al-Zawaya court strike shows the Emergency Lawyers Group demanding an independent investigation and a Tasis spokesperson urging one; no UN, ICC, or named rights organization announced opening a formal investigation dated 08-04 to 08-25." } }, { "statement": "AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers Squibb will announce a signed definitive merger or acquisition agreement between 2026-08-04 and 2026-09-04.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 18, "resolution": "True if both companies issue a joint press release or regulatory filing confirming a signed definitive agreement, dated between 2026-08-04 and 2026-09-04, confirmed by 2026-09-08.", "deadline": "2026-09-08", "citations": [ 6, 23 ], "failure_condition": "No joint press release or regulatory filing confirming a signed definitive agreement between the two companies appears within the stated window as of the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-28", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:53:48.987184+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ec11313c1ef6a40e83e3f3559e7981d189bf24684d50163f7f76437ae66ea689", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Priors name both parties and the transaction: \"An AstraZeneca, Bristol Myers Squibb merger could create a cancer-drug powerhouse\". Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The Federal Reserve will raise its federal funds target range above the level in effect on 2026-08-03, in an FOMC decision announced between 2026-08-10 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 15, "resolution": "True if an FOMC post-meeting statement dated between 2026-08-10 and 2026-12-31 raises the target range above its 2026-08-03 level, confirmed via the Federal Reserve press release by 2027-01-06.", "deadline": "2027-01-06", "citations": [ 18 ], "failure_condition": "No FOMC statement dated in the window raises the target range above its 2026-08-03 level as of the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-29", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:53:48.987200+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b111abb55ca47ab8755214d69cb0fd0c96f8dc1b4812fb99f3e677c36afc9613", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 4 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog will add an entry for the N-able N-central vulnerability described in the 2026-08-03 report, with the addition dated between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-18.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 42, "resolution": "True if the CISA KEV catalog lists an N-able N-central CVE with a date-added field between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-18, confirmed by checking the catalog on 2026-08-21.", "deadline": "2026-08-21", "citations": [ 7 ], "failure_condition": "No N-able N-central CVE appears in the CISA KEV catalog with a date-added in the stated window as of the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-30", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "Clerk: KEV mirror catalog 2026.08.26, CVE-2026-18556 N-central dateAdded 2026-08-04.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:53:48.987213+00:00", "seal_sha256": "cf8288bf0e34432fb7d99b0d5214bd6584a8fb52405554caad4a382ef3363442", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports active exploitation of the same product: \"N-able Says Attackers Take Over N-central Servers After Initial Fix\". Ruled across all 6 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "CISA added N-able N-central CVE-2026-18577 to the KEV catalog on Aug 3, 2026 (The Hacker News Aug 2026; Rapid7 Aug 2026) and then added the related N-central authentication bypass CVE-2026-18556 on Aug 4-5, 2026 (SecurityOnline Aug 2026 gives Aug 4, The Hacker News gives Aug 5, Rapid7 gives Aug 5, with a federal due date of Aug 7); the second entry carries a date-added inside the Aug 4-18 window." } }, { "statement": "The US Senate will hold a floor vote resulting in confirmation or rejection of the pending nomination of Todd Blanche, between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-21.", "domain": "political", "probability": 62, "resolution": "True if the Senate floor vote record (Congress.gov or a wire service) shows a confirmation or rejection vote on the nomination of Todd Blanche dated between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-21, confirmed by 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-24", "citations": [ 1 ], "failure_condition": "No Senate floor vote on the nomination of Todd Blanche, up or down, is recorded within the stated window as of the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-31", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] Senate roll call vote 230 (senate.gov, 119th Congress 2nd session) records the confirmation of Todd Blanche of Florida to be Attorney General at 4:17 AM on Aug 8, 2026, nomination PN1078; NPR (Aug 8, 2026) and The Washington Post (Aug 8, 2026) reported the 50-49 vote with Collins and Murkowski joining all Democrats in opposition.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:53:48.987224+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1f4ff22d444f28964aa4f43fd1ebba2a6c940971554e7643abb2354fa6086497", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "No cited prior names this subject or this proceeding. The claim went beyond every candidate item behind its citation numbers. Ruled across all 8 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Senate roll call vote 230 (senate.gov, 119th Congress 2nd session) records the confirmation of Todd Blanche of Florida to be Attorney General at 4:17 AM on Aug 8, 2026, nomination PN1078; NPR (Aug 8, 2026) and The Washington Post (Aug 8, 2026) reported the 50-49 vote with Collins and Murkowski joining all Democrats in opposition." } }, { "statement": "The wildfire(s) reported destroying homes and forcing evacuations near Spokane, Washington on 2026-08-03 will reach full containment, as reported by state or federal fire authorities, between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-21.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 28, "resolution": "True if Washington state fire authorities or InciWeb report the Spokane-area wildfire(s) at 100 percent containment, with the containment date between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-21, confirmed by 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-24", "citations": [ 2 ], "failure_condition": "No state or federal fire authority reports 100 percent containment of the Spokane-area wildfire(s) with a containment date in the stated window as of the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-32", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "Clerk: Fairview 100 pct verified in press by 17 Aug; Old Trails and Autumn Lane at 100 rest on the juror's WA DNR portal read.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:53:48.987235+00:00", "seal_sha256": "89e77607bd9314f727a5921e43a2a2ba2670c4eaf881001f86d2178bc4d7e8a2", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Prior reports the same fires: \"Washington wildfires destroy homes, force thousands to evacuate\". Containment is the ordinary next stage of a fire the priors supply. Ruled across all 7 candidate items behind this row’s citation numbers; charity runs toward keyed, so keyless here means no candidate reached the test.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The Washington DNR Wildfire Portal (dnr.wa.gov, read in late Aug 2026) lists all three Spokane Complex fires under past fires at 100 percent containment: Old Trails (3,621 acres) and Fairview (1,056 acres) with last updates of Aug 19, 2026, and Autumn Lane (5,603 acres) with a last update of Aug 21, 2026; Watch Duty citing NIFC and IQAir (Aug 25, 2026) also show all three at 100 percent, and InciWeb had them at 97 percent around Aug 13-14 (KHQ Aug 14, 2026)." } }, { "statement": "Israeli air, drone, or artillery strikes inside Gaza City occur between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-24.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 25, "resolution": "True if Al Jazeera and BBC World each report an Israeli air, drone, or artillery strike inside Gaza City occurring between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-27", "citations": [ 22, 18 ], "failure_condition": "No Israeli strike inside Gaza City occurs during the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 24, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-04T02:53:48Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260804-17" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-33", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Duplicate of KKR-20260804-17: AJ 08-18 Gaza City port cafe strike killing six plus AP/PBS 08-19 strikes confirm Israeli strikes inside Gaza City in the window.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:58:26.090161+00:00", "seal_sha256": "491f5e9c202fc365c73bffdc38f3583e4669a9b10ed0c0fdf64bf60cbeb346cb", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. A climatological control emits the same probability for every row in a reference class, computed from this ledger’s own resolved history; it makes no claim to exceed its inputs and cannot, by construction. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Duplicate of KKR-20260804-17: AJ 08-18 Gaza City port cafe strike killing six plus AP/PBS 08-19 strikes confirm Israeli strikes inside Gaza City in the window." } }, { "statement": "Russia's Ministry of Defence claims 100 or more Ukrainian drones destroyed or intercepted over a single night between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-24.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 25, "resolution": "True if Russia's Ministry of Defence publicly claims destroying or intercepting 100 or more Ukrainian drones over one overnight period between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-24, per wire reporting.", "deadline": "2026-08-27", "citations": [ 3, 19 ], "failure_condition": "No single-night MoD claim reaches 100 drones during the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 24, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-04T02:53:48Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260804-18" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-34", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Duplicate of KKR-20260804-18: Russian MoD claim of 791 Ukrainian drones destroyed overnight 08-18 to 08-19 per CNN citing TASS.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:58:26.090300+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5b47ba967333b625f38bae9d8d60d6e635c04da39afc56e97718840ef0462460", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. A climatological control emits the same probability for every row in a reference class, computed from this ledger’s own resolved history; it makes no claim to exceed its inputs and cannot, by construction. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Duplicate of KKR-20260804-18: Russian MoD claim of 791 Ukrainian drones destroyed overnight 08-18 to 08-19 per CNN citing TASS." } }, { "statement": "Front-month Brent crude settles at or below 75.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 25, "resolution": "True if front-month Brent futures post a settlement price at or below 75.00 US dollars per barrel on any trading day between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 15, 20 ], "failure_condition": "Every Brent front-month settlement in the window prints above 75.00 US dollars.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 24, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-04T02:53:48Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260804-19" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-35", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:58:26.090325+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f88ea12bc8e0208045aecc5a4eb83c26d798b57ecff4887bf34c131560e8679c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. A climatological control emits the same probability for every row in a reference class, computed from this ledger’s own resolved history; it makes no claim to exceed its inputs and cannot, by construction. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The FOMC raises the federal funds target range at a scheduled meeting held between 2026-08-10 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 25, "resolution": "True if an FOMC statement issued at a scheduled meeting within the window announces an increase to the federal funds target range.", "deadline": "2027-01-04", "citations": [ 18, 7 ], "failure_condition": "The target range is held or cut at every scheduled meeting in the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 24, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-04T02:53:48Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260804-20" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-36", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:58:26.090340+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d7345e60e0f88dae2e097d209773c62cd2bab4fc8c9ccc29ab8ba2c0bc5c5a1f", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. A climatological control emits the same probability for every row in a reference class, computed from this ledger’s own resolved history; it makes no claim to exceed its inputs and cannot, by construction. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "CISA adds a CVE affecting N-able N-central to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "True if the CISA KEV catalog contains an entry for a CVE in N-able N-central carrying a date-added value between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 7 ], "failure_condition": "No N-able N-central CVE receives a KEV date-added value inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 24, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-04T02:53:48Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260804-21" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-37", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:58:26.090375+00:00", "seal_sha256": "540e74d5ad14b62c43bb5228481403cba031684a72c3cf3ea8a9db7fb4d03803", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. A climatological control emits the same probability for every row in a reference class, computed from this ledger’s own resolved history; it makes no claim to exceed its inputs and cannot, by construction. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The UK Information Commissioners Office confirms a formal investigation or enforcement action over the PNLD breach between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "True if the ICO publishes a statement, case page, or enforcement notice confirming formal investigation or enforcement action regarding the PNLD breach, dated within the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 5 ], "failure_condition": "The ICO opens no formal investigation or enforcement action on PNLD in the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 24, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-04T02:53:48Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260804-22" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-38", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:58:26.090386+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1b6c5d537ad365537e9dd497d740e197ede1c20dbc75f2594036c9f1a0ff242c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. A climatological control emits the same probability for every row in a reference class, computed from this ledger’s own resolved history; it makes no claim to exceed its inputs and cannot, by construction. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The US Senate confirms Todd Blanche as Attorney General between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 25, "resolution": "True if the Senate roll call record shows a confirmation vote approving Todd Blanche as Attorney General on a date between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 19, 1 ], "failure_condition": "No successful Senate confirmation vote on Blanche occurs within the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 24, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-04T02:53:48Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260804-23" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-39", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:58:26.090396+00:00", "seal_sha256": "032efab4e0e5b72fcdf237b5ef17a79d7066f16f79e5f5a3b3ef0371c9a855af", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. A climatological control emits the same probability for every row in a reference class, computed from this ledger’s own resolved history; it makes no claim to exceed its inputs and cannot, by construction. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The National Interagency Fire Center posts National Preparedness Level 5 on at least one day between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-15.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 25, "resolution": "True if an NIFC daily situation report dated between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-15 states National Preparedness Level 5.", "deadline": "2026-09-17", "citations": [ 2, 17 ], "failure_condition": "NIFC preparedness level stays at 4 or lower every day of the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 24, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-04T02:53:48Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260804-24" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-40", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:58:26.090406+00:00", "seal_sha256": "bbedcf8f4595a6186db5499f4f98cca28421da5d7324ae71129b1a4f97933e73", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. A climatological control emits the same probability for every row in a reference class, computed from this ledger’s own resolved history; it makes no claim to exceed its inputs and cannot, by construction. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "US and Iranian officials hold a confirmed direct bilateral meeting between 2026-08-10 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "political", "probability": 25, "resolution": "True if the US State Department and Iran's foreign ministry both confirm a direct bilateral meeting between US and Iranian officials held within the window.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 4, 14, 22 ], "failure_condition": "No direct US-Iran bilateral meeting occurs in the window, mediated contact only.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 24, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-04T02:53:48Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260804-25" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-41", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:58:26.090415+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8d9c30c2af1853ed85f9eac4d26efafd3f854972ce5d26955a3d1fed207220d9", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. A climatological control emits the same probability for every row in a reference class, computed from this ledger’s own resolved history; it makes no claim to exceed its inputs and cannot, by construction. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "Israel and Palestinian armed factions in Gaza will be reported to have observed a continuous halt in strikes lasting at least 48 hours, beginning between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-24.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 25, "resolution": "True if two or more wire services or the UN report a Gaza ceasefire holding at least 48 continuous hours with a start date between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-24, confirmed by 2026-08-27.", "deadline": "2026-08-27", "citations": [ 22 ], "failure_condition": "No 48-hour continuous halt in Gaza strikes with a start date in the stated window is confirmed by two independent sources as of the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 24, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-04T02:53:48Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260804-26" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-42", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Duplicate of KKR-20260804-26: near-daily strikes documented by AJ and AP throughout the window; no 48-hour halt reported by any wire or the UN.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:58:26.767389+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3e50b51545973422032864fb7a3283d7bf4726bf195cb5d8bd4f91af6d2003b6", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. A climatological control emits the same probability for every row in a reference class, computed from this ledger’s own resolved history; it makes no claim to exceed its inputs and cannot, by construction. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Duplicate of KKR-20260804-26: near-daily strikes documented by AJ and AP throughout the window; no 48-hour halt reported by any wire or the UN." } }, { "statement": "A UN body, the ICC, or a major human rights organization will announce it has opened a formal investigation into the 2026-08-03 Sudan army drone strike on a court session, between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-25.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 25, "resolution": "True if the UN, ICC, or a named human rights organization publicly announces a formal investigation or fact-finding inquiry into the strike, with the announcement dated between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-25, confirmed by 2026-08-28.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 24 ], "failure_condition": "No formal investigation or fact-finding inquiry into the strike is publicly announced by any of the named bodies within the stated window as of the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 24, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-04T02:53:48Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260804-27" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-43", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Duplicate of KKR-20260804-27: Emergency Lawyers Group and a Tasis spokesperson demanded an investigation around 08-03; no UN, ICC, or named rights body announced a formal inquiry dated in the window.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:58:26.767517+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3b0dea1a4faf92d0c5445e1d6d1a9db6192683efb01c5287c98b49b85d1cebb7", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. A climatological control emits the same probability for every row in a reference class, computed from this ledger’s own resolved history; it makes no claim to exceed its inputs and cannot, by construction. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Duplicate of KKR-20260804-27: Emergency Lawyers Group and a Tasis spokesperson demanded an investigation around 08-03; no UN, ICC, or named rights body announced a formal inquiry dated in the window." } }, { "statement": "AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers Squibb will announce a signed definitive merger or acquisition agreement between 2026-08-04 and 2026-09-04.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "True if both companies issue a joint press release or regulatory filing confirming a signed definitive agreement, dated between 2026-08-04 and 2026-09-04, confirmed by 2026-09-08.", "deadline": "2026-09-08", "citations": [ 6, 23 ], "failure_condition": "No joint press release or regulatory filing confirming a signed definitive agreement between the two companies appears within the stated window as of the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 24, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-04T02:53:48Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260804-28" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-44", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:58:26.767540+00:00", "seal_sha256": "70e86248375ef4da51586121b3d1db74b5f9f4c12327385fdfc4fe86d9e948e3", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. A climatological control emits the same probability for every row in a reference class, computed from this ledger’s own resolved history; it makes no claim to exceed its inputs and cannot, by construction. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The Federal Reserve will raise its federal funds target range above the level in effect on 2026-08-03, in an FOMC decision announced between 2026-08-10 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "True if an FOMC post-meeting statement dated between 2026-08-10 and 2026-12-31 raises the target range above its 2026-08-03 level, confirmed via the Federal Reserve press release by 2027-01-06.", "deadline": "2027-01-06", "citations": [ 18 ], "failure_condition": "No FOMC statement dated in the window raises the target range above its 2026-08-03 level as of the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 24, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-04T02:53:48Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260804-29" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-45", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:58:26.767553+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4c0e3e23410245b52cd8691ceadb5cb3557ff351b001fe961dc8cb0d61d0e0d8", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. A climatological control emits the same probability for every row in a reference class, computed from this ledger’s own resolved history; it makes no claim to exceed its inputs and cannot, by construction. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog will add an entry for the N-able N-central vulnerability described in the 2026-08-03 report, with the addition dated between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-18.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "True if the CISA KEV catalog lists an N-able N-central CVE with a date-added field between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-18, confirmed by checking the catalog on 2026-08-21.", "deadline": "2026-08-21", "citations": [ 7 ], "failure_condition": "No N-able N-central CVE appears in the CISA KEV catalog with a date-added in the stated window as of the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 24, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-04T02:53:48Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260804-30" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-46", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "Clerk: KEV mirror catalog 2026.08.26, CVE-2026-18556 N-central dateAdded 2026-08-04.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:58:26.767563+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7f60f3d5691f8ca07fd02e688ba24c6eb5662e5a1d8044cd18130a12d7ae00ca", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. A climatological control emits the same probability for every row in a reference class, computed from this ledger’s own resolved history; it makes no claim to exceed its inputs and cannot, by construction. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "CISA added N-able N-central CVE-2026-18577 to the KEV catalog on Aug 3, 2026 (The Hacker News Aug 2026; Rapid7 Aug 2026) and then added the related N-central authentication bypass CVE-2026-18556 on Aug 4-5, 2026 (SecurityOnline Aug 2026 gives Aug 4, The Hacker News gives Aug 5, Rapid7 gives Aug 5, with a federal due date of Aug 7); the second entry carries a date-added inside the Aug 4-18 window." } }, { "statement": "The US Senate will hold a floor vote resulting in confirmation or rejection of the pending nomination of Todd Blanche, between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-21.", "domain": "political", "probability": 25, "resolution": "True if the Senate floor vote record (Congress.gov or a wire service) shows a confirmation or rejection vote on the nomination of Todd Blanche dated between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-21, confirmed by 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-24", "citations": [ 1 ], "failure_condition": "No Senate floor vote on the nomination of Todd Blanche, up or down, is recorded within the stated window as of the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 24, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-04T02:53:48Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260804-31" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-47", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] Senate roll call vote 230 (senate.gov, 119th Congress 2nd session) records the confirmation of Todd Blanche of Florida to be Attorney General at 4:17 AM on Aug 8, 2026, nomination PN1078; NPR (Aug 8, 2026) and The Washington Post (Aug 8, 2026) reported the 50-49 vote with Collins and Murkowski joining all Democrats in opposition.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:58:26.767572+00:00", "seal_sha256": "acbc8bce60042be44242a0c71580b5a0cb682ff6bbc4bc6ba1478b8ce075cfb4", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. A climatological control emits the same probability for every row in a reference class, computed from this ledger’s own resolved history; it makes no claim to exceed its inputs and cannot, by construction. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Senate roll call vote 230 (senate.gov, 119th Congress 2nd session) records the confirmation of Todd Blanche of Florida to be Attorney General at 4:17 AM on Aug 8, 2026, nomination PN1078; NPR (Aug 8, 2026) and The Washington Post (Aug 8, 2026) reported the 50-49 vote with Collins and Murkowski joining all Democrats in opposition." } }, { "statement": "The wildfire(s) reported destroying homes and forcing evacuations near Spokane, Washington on 2026-08-03 will reach full containment, as reported by state or federal fire authorities, between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-21.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 25, "resolution": "True if Washington state fire authorities or InciWeb report the Spokane-area wildfire(s) at 100 percent containment, with the containment date between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-21, confirmed by 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-24", "citations": [ 2 ], "failure_condition": "No state or federal fire authority reports 100 percent containment of the Spokane-area wildfire(s) with a containment date in the stated window as of the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 24, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-04T02:53:48Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260804-32" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-03_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-48", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-03_1501.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "Clerk: Fairview 100 pct verified in press by 17 Aug; Old Trails and Autumn Lane at 100 rest on the juror's WA DNR portal read.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T02:58:26.767580+00:00", "seal_sha256": "47226e7a5384abb6101af0b486df2cada7ce9bd44eb76ba93eeb4744258b7eee", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Mechanical arm. A climatological control emits the same probability for every row in a reference class, computed from this ledger’s own resolved history; it makes no claim to exceed its inputs and cannot, by construction. Keyed by construction, not by judgment.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-04", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The Washington DNR Wildfire Portal (dnr.wa.gov, read in late Aug 2026) lists all three Spokane Complex fires under past fires at 100 percent containment: Old Trails (3,621 acres) and Fairview (1,056 acres) with last updates of Aug 19, 2026, and Autumn Lane (5,603 acres) with a last update of Aug 21, 2026; Watch Duty citing NIFC and IQAir (Aug 25, 2026) also show all three at 100 percent, and InciWeb had them at 97 percent around Aug 13-14 (KHQ Aug 14, 2026)." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-06 and 2026-08-13, a cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-18577 in N-able N-central systems results in unauthorized access to at least one critical infrastructure network.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-08-06 and 2026-08-13 for CVE-2026-18577.", "deadline": "2026-08-18", "citations": [ 8, 20 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog does not carry a date-added value between 2026-08-06 and 2026-08-13 for CVE-2026-18577.", "id": "KKR-20260804-49", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-04_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_1502.md", "status": "void", "resolved_date": "2026-08-05", "notes": "VOID under RPAS 4.06 (issued 2026-08-05): resolution basis tests a correlated precondition (KEV date-added for CVE-2026-18577) in place of the asserted consequence (unauthorized access). Voided before the claim's stated window opened 2026-08-06; outcome-blind by construction.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T15:04:28.380608+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f0910f84e74282f6de2a08f62ec0b12c63e35b92b730b3da598bac286cfb7e2f" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-17, a wildfire in the Russian Federation, as reported by GDACS Alerts, burns more than 10,000 hectares.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 35, "resolution": "The GDACS Alerts system records a green forest fire notification for the Russian Federation with a burned area exceeding 10,000 hectares between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-17.", "deadline": "2026-08-25", "citations": [ 40 ], "failure_condition": "The GDACS Alerts system does not record a green forest fire notification for the Russian Federation with a burned area exceeding 10,000 hectares between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-17.", "id": "KKR-20260804-50", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-04_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_1502.md", "status": "void", "resolved_date": "2026-08-05", "notes": "VOID under RPAS 4.06 (issued 2026-08-05): resolution basis narrows the statement with a qualifier it never makes (green alert level; statement true at any level exceeding 10,000 ha). Voided before the claim's stated window opened 2026-08-10; outcome-blind by construction. See also the gdacs resolver alert-level guard of 2026-08-05.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T15:04:28.380704+00:00", "seal_sha256": "57a0b0e9e42f9d1494718e7bbac9ccad6d877a59661b703a466b0c3f25b80f60" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-11 and 2026-08-18, a new political scandal involving a U.S. federal official is reported by at least two independent outlets, including Al Jazeera and BBC World.", "domain": "political", "probability": 40, "resolution": "At least two independent news outlets, including Al Jazeera and BBC World, publish a report on a new political scandal involving a U.S. federal official between 2026-08-11 and 2026-08-18.", "deadline": "2026-08-26", "citations": [ 105, 108 ], "failure_condition": "No report from Al Jazeera or BBC World on a new political scandal involving a U.S. federal official is published between 2026-08-11 and 2026-08-18.", "id": "KKR-20260804-51", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-04_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T15:04:28.380722+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ef9174f2e2c8ad5f129d15e61d2836569a32125d80f3aa1598ed565a78b0a355", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [105] carry the claim's operative terms (world); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-13 and 2026-08-20, a major cyberattack on a U.S. government agency is confirmed by at least two independent sources, including BleepingComputer and The Hacker News.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "At least two independent sources, including BleepingComputer and The Hacker News, publish a report confirming a major cyberattack on a U.S. government agency between 2026-08-13 and 2026-08-20.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 12, 15 ], "failure_condition": "No report from BleepingComputer or The Hacker News confirms a major cyberattack on a U.S. government agency between 2026-08-13 and 2026-08-20.", "id": "KKR-20260804-52", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-04_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_1502.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "ATF breach and QTFY takedown confirmed 08-26, after the 08-13..20 window; no in-window two-source confirmation", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T15:04:28.380732+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0e06b9a810bf008a66cfe6759cc767a4ef08487f4ac4df2419958a96832f32c7", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [12, 15] carry the claim's operative terms (bleepingcomputer, hacker); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-15 and 2026-08-22, a new political development involving Iran's foreign ministry and the U.S. government is reported by at least two independent sources, including Al Jazeera and BBC World.", "domain": "political", "probability": 45, "resolution": "At least two independent sources, including Al Jazeera and BBC World, publish a report on a new political development involving Iran's foreign ministry and the U.S. government between 2026-08-15 and 2026-08-22.", "deadline": "2026-08-30", "citations": [ 117, 122 ], "failure_condition": "No report from Al Jazeera or BBC World on a new political development involving Iran's foreign ministry and the U.S. government is published between 2026-08-15 and 2026-08-22.", "id": "KKR-20260804-53", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-04_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T15:04:28.380741+00:00", "seal_sha256": "90e053389da353de153fc5a9f8c9999dab9a8682de20a9624488a9f1a2db2014", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [122] carry the claim's operative terms (iran', jazeera); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-16 and 2026-08-23, a new economic policy shift by the U.S. Federal Reserve is announced by at least two independent financial news outlets, including CNBC and MarketWatch.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 35, "resolution": "At least two independent financial news outlets, including CNBC and MarketWatch, publish a report announcing a new economic policy shift by the U.S. Federal Reserve between 2026-08-16 and 2026-08-23.", "deadline": "2026-08-31", "citations": [ 57, 115 ], "failure_condition": "No report from CNBC or MarketWatch announces a new economic policy shift by the U.S. Federal Reserve between 2026-08-16 and 2026-08-23.", "id": "KKR-20260804-54", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-04_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_1502.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] No Fed policy action or announced policy shift occurred 08-16 to 08-23; the hawkish-pivot narrative crystallized at Jackson Hole on 08-28, after the window, per CNBC and Bloomberg coverage.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T15:04:28.380752+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6f4884131439314b6a4c41c938c948c44394203d71f637d99d4562bdea609d1a", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [57, 115] carry the claim's operative terms (cnbc); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "No Fed policy action or announced policy shift occurred 08-16 to 08-23; the hawkish-pivot narrative crystallized at Jackson Hole on 08-28, after the window, per CNBC and Bloomberg coverage." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-24, a new cyberattack on a major financial institution in Europe is confirmed by at least two independent sources, including BleepingComputer and The Hacker News.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "At least two independent sources, including BleepingComputer and The Hacker News, publish a report confirming a new cyberattack on a major financial institution in Europe between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-09-01", "citations": [ 12, 15 ], "failure_condition": "No report from BleepingComputer or The Hacker News confirms a new cyberattack on a major financial institution in Europe between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260804-55", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-04_1502.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_1502.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Neither BleepingComputer nor The Hacker News confirmed a new cyberattack on a major European financial institution during 08-17 to 08-24; both outlets streams in the period center on RingCentral, SMA1000, Ray, SharePoint, and US targets like Levi Strauss and North Carolina Ports.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T15:04:28.380760+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5ce9dcc4b60eb4aa673d7e02e77a79a022556c18ba1aebff6e6f38fac2312d88", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [12, 15] carry the claim's operative terms (bleepingcomputer, hacker); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Neither BleepingComputer nor The Hacker News confirmed a new cyberattack on a major European financial institution during 08-17 to 08-24; both outlets streams in the period center on RingCentral, SMA1000, Ray, SharePoint, and US targets like Levi Strauss and North Carolina Ports." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-21 the United States and Iran both publicly announce a concluded agreement reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial transit.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 52, "resolution": "TRUE if a US government body and an Iranian government body each publicly confirm a concluded Hormuz transit agreement dated between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-21, per two international wire services.", "deadline": "2026-08-25", "citations": [ 67, 117, 122 ], "failure_condition": "Both governments do not publicly confirm a concluded Hormuz transit agreement inside the stated window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-04_1502.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-56", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_1502.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] Axios (Aug 5, 2026) reported the US, Iran and Oman were nearing an interim Hormuz reopening deal with a US announcement targeted for that Wednesday, but Al Jazeera (Aug 17, 2026) reported the US-Iran memorandum expiring with the strait still contested, the Washington Times/AP (Aug 26, 2026) reported the IRGC saying the strait stays closed until the US meets its terms, and the only concluded document was an Iran-Oman interim framework statement on Aug 25 (Bloomberg via Rigzone, Aug 26, 2026); no US and Iranian government confirmations of a concluded transit agreement between Aug 4 and Aug 21 ap", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T21:15:54.485401+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ec7d4cc48154bb3bd50bda5dad6898e7ea37d1ea724e501a1b5625a5c37f12fa", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [117, 122] carry the claim's operative terms (hormuz, iran, iranian); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": null }, "evidence": "Axios (Aug 5, 2026) reported the US, Iran and Oman were nearing an interim Hormuz reopening deal with a US announcement targeted for that Wednesday, but Al Jazeera (Aug 17, 2026) reported the US-Iran memorandum expiring with the strait still contested, the Washington Times/AP (Aug 26, 2026) reported the IRGC saying the strait stays closed until the US meets its terms, and the only concluded document was an Iran-Oman interim framework statement on Aug 25 (Bloomberg via Rigzone, Aug 26, 2026); no US and Iranian government confirmations of a concluded transit agreement between Aug 4 and Aug 21 ap" } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-05 and 2026-08-25 a single long-range strike incident in Ukraine kills ten or more people.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 45, "resolution": "TRUE if Ukrainian state emergency or prosecution authorities report ten or more killed in one strike incident dated in the window, corroborated by two international wire services.", "deadline": "2026-08-31", "citations": [ 93, 95 ], "failure_condition": "No single strike incident dated in the window reaches a confirmed toll of ten or more killed.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-04_1502.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-57", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_1502.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] The 08-21 Russian drone strike on a Kryvyi Rih shopping mall killed 16 and injured about 130 per Ukrainian officials cited by AP via ABC, with Reuters imagery and Zelensky and the human-rights commissioner speaking, a single strike incident with ten-plus deaths inside 08-05 to 08-25; the 08-20 Kyiv strike killing 17 also qualifies.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T21:15:54.485539+00:00", "seal_sha256": "925e6f878bc87a74a8bf8027df5b471efe065d7123c1dc120be8db8e1685b202", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [93, 95] carry the claim's operative terms (kill, killed, long-range, strike, ukraine, ukrainian); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The 08-21 Russian drone strike on a Kryvyi Rih shopping mall killed 16 and injured about 130 per Ukrainian officials cited by AP via ABC, with Reuters imagery and Zelensky and the human-rights commissioner speaking, a single strike incident with ten-plus deaths inside 08-05 to 08-25; the 08-20 Kyiv strike killing 17 also qualifies." } }, { "statement": "The S&P 500 closes down 3.00 percent or more from the prior close on at least one session between 2026-08-05 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 28, "resolution": "TRUE if official S&P 500 closing values show a single-session close-to-close decline of 3.00 percent or greater on any date between 2026-08-05 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 71, 57, 74 ], "failure_condition": "No session in the window produces an S&P 500 close-to-close decline of 3.00 percent or more.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-04_1502.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-58", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T21:15:54.485564+00:00", "seal_sha256": "aa835d1381bcab278904e0f7bcdc9a1d3e831858a03b8555a1d89c11c142fff7", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Market-threshold claim with no reference level stated at seal; the keyed/keyless gap is unmeasurable and the entry defaults KEYED per 4.03/5.05 (market NOTE doctrine).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog adds a further N-able N-central vulnerability with a date-added value between 2026-08-05 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 18, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog contains an N-able N-central CVE other than CVE-2026-18577 and CVE-2026-18556 carrying a dateAdded value between 2026-08-05 and 2026-10-31.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 20, 26 ], "failure_condition": "No further N-able N-central CVE carries a KEV date-added value inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-04_1502.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-59", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T21:15:54.485579+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b11b273c3dd3a24f1c1cd42fbe8561889d80e724bfb2148ecb47990dd7f8aec5", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [20, 26] carry the claim's operative terms (adds, n-able, n-central); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "The United States Senate confirms Todd Blanche as Attorney General in a recorded floor vote held between 2026-08-05 and 2026-10-16.", "domain": "political", "probability": 85, "resolution": "TRUE if a Congress.gov Senate roll call vote dated between 2026-08-05 and 2026-10-16 records confirmation of the Blanche nomination to be Attorney General.", "deadline": "2026-10-20", "citations": [ 106 ], "failure_condition": "No Senate roll call inside the window records Blanche confirmed as Attorney General.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-04_1502.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-60", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T21:15:54.485591+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1608893344b659c75105cf193b56b52abef68749b1a04005cf41a1149727c705", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [106] carry the claim's operative terms (blanche, nomination, vote); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "The man charged over the largest 2026 Washington state wildfire faces at least one arson count filed and not dismissed at any point between 2026-08-05 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 84, "resolution": "TRUE if the Washington state court docket for that defendant shows an arson count filed and not dismissed on a date between 2026-08-05 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 9, 31, 43 ], "failure_condition": "The docket shows no arson count, or every arson count is dismissed before 2026-09-30.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-04_1502.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-61", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T21:15:54.485604+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8d5af8725c324c9335a2118bfb985d01e0582d23a462cab563a9fb2fe05b19f0", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [9, 31, 43] carry the claim's operative terms (arson, charged, largest, state, washington, wildfire); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-18, a single Russian or Ukrainian long-range strike will be independently confirmed by two or more wire services, such as Reuters, AP, or AFP, to have killed 20 or more people in one incident.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if two or more independent wire services report one strike in the window with a confirmed death toll of 20 or more; FALSE if no single incident reaches that two-source-confirmed toll by 2026-08-20.", "deadline": "2026-08-20", "citations": [ 93 ], "failure_condition": "No strike between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-18 is confirmed by two or more independent wire services to have killed 20 or more people in one incident.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-04_1502.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-62", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_1502.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] The deadliest Russian attack inside Aug 4-18 was the overnight Aug 4-5 ballistic-missile and drone barrage on Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast, which CNN (Aug 5, 2026), RFE/RL (Aug 5, 2026) and UN News (Aug 2026) put at 17 dead, rising to 18 per Ukrainska Pravda (Aug 7, 2026), spread across Brovary, Bucha and Fastiv districts and the capital with the single worst site being eight killed at Kvitneve station; Euronews (Aug 10, 2026) reported the largest Ukrainian strike, on Nizhnekamsk, killed 13; no wire reported any single incident at 20 or more dead in the window.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T21:15:56.905299+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e3978a58ee77d9183268743cfcf9a5b2be5c1f5a661c66ba213f81cfc4c89b02", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [93] carry the claim's operative terms (killed, long-range, russian, strike, ukrainian); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The deadliest Russian attack inside Aug 4-18 was the overnight Aug 4-5 ballistic-missile and drone barrage on Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast, which CNN (Aug 5, 2026), RFE/RL (Aug 5, 2026) and UN News (Aug 2026) put at 17 dead, rising to 18 per Ukrainska Pravda (Aug 7, 2026), spread across Brovary, Bucha and Fastiv districts and the capital with the single worst site being eight killed at Kvitneve station; Euronews (Aug 10, 2026) reported the largest Ukrainian strike, on Nizhnekamsk, killed 13; no wire reported any single incident at 20 or more dead in the window." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-25, the Israeli and Lebanese governments will each publicly confirm one specific written security arrangement, such as a troop withdrawal timeline, border demarcation, or disarmament mechanism, reached through the talks round described in item 90.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if both governments confirm the same specific written arrangement by 2026-08-27; FALSE if talks continue, stall, or collapse without a jointly confirmed written arrangement.", "deadline": "2026-08-27", "citations": [ 90 ], "failure_condition": "By 2026-08-27, no joint Israeli and Lebanese government confirmation of one specific written security arrangement has been issued.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-04_1502.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-63", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_1502.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Times of Israel, early August 2026, reported via an unnamed Lebanese official that the sides agreed only a shortlist of possible verification countries, that no agreement was reached on the next Israeli withdrawal area, and that the next round was set for early September.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T21:15:56.905432+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c03a55cad9e847565913f089b920278788347b2e47031f9004549bd611e1fee0", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [90] carry the claim's operative terms (israeli, round, talk); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Times of Israel, early August 2026, reported via an unnamed Lebanese official that the sides agreed only a shortlist of possible verification countries, that no agreement was reached on the next Israeli withdrawal area, and that the next round was set for early September." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-04 and 2026-09-08, the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog will add a second CVE, distinct from CVE-2026-18577, affecting N-able N-central.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 15, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog lists any additional N-able N-central CVE with a date-added value in the window; FALSE if no such second entry appears by 2026-09-10.", "deadline": "2026-09-10", "citations": [ 20, 26 ], "failure_condition": "No CVE beyond CVE-2026-18577 affecting N-able N-central appears in the CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value in the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-04_1502.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-64", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T21:15:56.905460+00:00", "seal_sha256": "51271a5c5956f8957e65001dedee7dfa7e25b99042db9cd61a7515ca4b0412ac", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [20, 26] carry the claim's operative terms (exploited, n-able, n-central); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-11, the Japan Meteorological Agency will issue a Special Warning, its highest alert level, for Typhoon Dolphin covering at least one prefecture.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 20, "resolution": "TRUE if JMA public advisories show a Special Warning issued for Typhoon Dolphin in the window; FALSE if JMA issues no Special Warning by 2026-08-13.", "deadline": "2026-08-13", "citations": [ 36 ], "failure_condition": "JMA does not issue a Special Warning for Typhoon Dolphin between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-11, regardless of lower-tier warnings issued.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-04_1502.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-65", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_1502.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] Weathernews and The Watchers coverage of Typhoon Dolphin, which passed near Okinawa around Aug 7 2026 at about 935 hPa, documents JMA typhoon warnings and advisories including violent wind and storm surge warnings, with no mention of a Special Warning, the highest JMA tier, in the Aug 4-11 window.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T21:15:56.905478+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a7dd73266ba77fbd594f4fca47a959f3fa2c439b989f9a2eb89f9b1492a42a79", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [36] carry the claim's operative terms (dolphin, japan, typhoon); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Weathernews and The Watchers coverage of Typhoon Dolphin, which passed near Okinawa around Aug 7 2026 at about 935 hPa, documents JMA typhoon warnings and advisories including violent wind and storm surge warnings, with no mention of a Special Warning, the highest JMA tier, in the Aug 4-11 window." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-04 and 2026-11-04, the person charged with arson over the Old Trails wildfire in item 9 will be indicted or have an information filed advancing the case to Washington Superior Court.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 55, "resolution": "TRUE if the county Superior Court docket shows the case advanced via indictment or filed information in the window; FALSE if it remains at initial charge, or is dismissed, by 2026-11-06.", "deadline": "2026-11-06", "citations": [ 9 ], "failure_condition": "No Washington Superior Court docket entry between 2026-08-04 and 2026-11-04 shows the case advancing beyond the original arson charge.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-04_1502.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-66", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T21:15:56.905492+00:00", "seal_sha256": "deb830dfca6f127028fba99d2edb245e9885ecb4fd1c63e698c82dfde86f3bae", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [9] carry the claim's operative terms (charge, charged, washington, wildfire); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-04 and 2026-11-04, the Second Circuit Court of Appeals will enter an order or ruling, on the merits or on a stay motion, in New York's case over the ICE-officer mask ban blocked in item 113.", "domain": "political", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if the Second Circuit public docket shows an order or ruling on this matter within the window; FALSE if none appears by 2026-11-06.", "deadline": "2026-11-06", "citations": [ 113 ], "failure_condition": "No Second Circuit order or ruling on this matter appears on the public docket between 2026-08-04 and 2026-11-04.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-04_1502.md", "id": "KKR-20260804-67", "date_issued": "2026-08-04", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-04_1502.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-04T21:15:56.905508+00:00", "seal_sha256": "806fedaa7c6d10ec8b1fa223606d5dedfe4698e370576b6c8ee365d2018d8cf8", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [113] carry the claim's operative terms (blocked, york'); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog includes CVE-2026-9198 (IBM Langflow Code Injection) as actively exploited between 2026-08-05 and 2026-08-12.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 85, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-08-05 and 2026-08-12 for CVE-2026-9198.", "deadline": "2026-08-14", "citations": [ 21, 8 ], "failure_condition": "CVE-2026-9198 is not listed in the CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value in the specified window.", "id": "KKR-20260805-01", "date_issued": "2026-08-05", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] The CISA alert adding CVE-2026-9198 to the KEV catalog is dated Aug 4 2026 in the advisory URL and text, and NVD records per Windows Forum carry an Aug 4 addition date with an Aug 7 remediation deadline; the criterion requires a date-added between Aug 5 and Aug 12.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-05T15:03:45.288894+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b53b1bf706cfb5679c9c42e8b14bb7ca7ff42b5587ad728e51e75900431b7d98", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [21] carry the claim's operative terms (actively, cisa, langflow); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The CISA alert adding CVE-2026-9198 to the KEV catalog is dated Aug 4 2026 in the advisory URL and text, and NVD records per Windows Forum carry an Aug 4 addition date with an Aug 7 remediation deadline; the criterion requires a date-added between Aug 5 and Aug 12." } }, { "statement": "A magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake with a depth of less than 100km occurs in the Philippines between 2026-08-05 and 2026-08-12.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The USGS Significant Quakes feed reports a magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake with a depth of less than 100km in the Philippines between 2026-08-05 and 2026-08-12.", "deadline": "2026-08-14", "citations": [ 30, 43 ], "failure_condition": "No such earthquake is reported by the USGS Significant Quakes feed in the specified window.", "id": "KKR-20260805-02", "date_issued": "2026-08-05", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-15", "notes": "[jury] USGS event records and AFP-carried reporting show a magnitude 6.3 earthquake struck about 32 km southwest of Sarangani, Mindanao, Philippines on Aug 5 2026 at roughly 10 km depth, prompting a green PAGER alert; magnitude, depth, location and date all satisfy the criterion.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-05T15:03:45.288996+00:00", "seal_sha256": "235ccf70fb53e80a3adc411de871d12634a12747484ab50325c378a19dc8fa44", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [30, 43] carry the claim's operative terms (depth, earthquake, magnitude, philippine, quake, significant); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "USGS event records and AFP-carried reporting show a magnitude 6.3 earthquake struck about 32 km southwest of Sarangani, Mindanao, Philippines on Aug 5 2026 at roughly 10 km depth, prompting a green PAGER alert; magnitude, depth, location and date all satisfy the criterion." } }, { "statement": "ICE Brent front-month crude futures settle at or below 70.00 USD per barrel on at least one settlement date between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "economics", "probability": 48, "resolution": "Any ICE-published front-month Brent settlement price with a settlement date between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-30 is 70.00 or lower.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 57, 92, 93 ], "failure_condition": "Every ICE front-month Brent settlement inside the window prints above 70.00 USD per barrel.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-01", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:30:37.150373+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fb8620232fcae5a316e55da2398c02a773b9e413599d47425c7e5e580daed0af", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Market-threshold claim with no reference level stated at seal; the keyed/keyless gap is unmeasurable and the entry defaults KEYED per 4.03/5.05 (market NOTE doctrine).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "A filing entered on the US Court of International Trade docket between 2026-08-06 and 2026-12-15 states that cumulative IEEPA tariff refunds issued have reached 150 billion USD or more.", "domain": "economics", "probability": 35, "resolution": "A government filing on the CIT docket dated inside the window states cumulative IEEPA refunds of at least 150 billion USD. A lower stated figure resolves false.", "deadline": "2026-12-18", "citations": [ 51 ], "failure_condition": "Cumulative IEEPA refunds as stated in CIT filings remain below 150 billion USD through 2026-12-15.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-02", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:30:37.152180+00:00", "seal_sha256": "811ae6861e6d5414f77591ed64b49e584acfbf03207ed6afdc684aad3f7d3721", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [51] carry the claim's operative terms (billion, refund, tariff); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "UKMTO issues an incident advisory, or CENTCOM issues a statement, reporting an attack on or seizure of a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman between 2026-08-06 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 35, "resolution": "A UKMTO advisory or CENTCOM statement dated inside the window reports an attack on or seizure of a commercial vessel in the named waters.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 57, 92, 93 ], "failure_condition": "No attack on or seizure of a commercial vessel occurs in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman during the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-03", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:30:37.152204+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8d93f27e8d29da8f66d570712969cc472e1a967fc268573513292c8350ab1a73", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [93] carry the claim's operative terms (hormuz, oman); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog carries at least one entry naming Gitea in its vendorProject or product field, with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-06 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 18, "resolution": "A CISA KEV entry naming Gitea in vendorProject or product carries a dateAdded value inside the window. No such entry resolves false.", "deadline": "2027-01-06", "citations": [ 17 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV catalog holds no Gitea entry with a dateAdded value inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-04", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:30:37.152214+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6e6841394331d48b2ae397431a205336f42b82e4da22cb05fc8ceae733d896d8", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [17] carry the claim's operative terms (gitea); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "The USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one event of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 300 km of the epicenter of USGS event us6000ti6x, with an origin time between 2026-08-06 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 38, "resolution": "A USGS FDSN event query for magnitude 6.0 or greater, radius 300 km around the us6000ti6x epicenter, origin time inside the window, returns one or more events.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 30, 43 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS catalog returns zero magnitude 6.0 or greater events within that radius and time window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-05", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:30:37.152222+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c668be8e23354bcebfc1106b926af2217b4fec9d1f40b468520de432728f2204", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [43] carry the claim's operative terms (earthquake, magnitude); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "The House Committee on Ethics publishes a statement or report on ethics.house.gov naming Representative Max Miller, dated between 2026-08-06 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 55, "resolution": "A document published on ethics.house.gov and dated inside the window names Representative Max Miller. No such document resolves false.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 37 ], "failure_condition": "The Committee on Ethics issues no public document naming Max Miller during the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-06", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:30:37.152230+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1f589b8ed6f7c8ae31e6a4db07c5b88c3b9a4164659fb7acae2a277f15e4aaaa", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [37] carry the claim's operative terms (committee, ethic, house, miller); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-06 and 2026-08-20, the USGS Earthquake Catalog will record at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater anywhere in the world.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 90, "resolution": "True if the USGS Earthquake Catalog lists any event of magnitude 6.0 or greater with origin time between 2026-08-06 and 2026-08-20, checked 2026-08-24; false otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-08-24", "citations": [ 30, 35 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS Earthquake Catalog shows no magnitude 6.0 or greater event globally with origin time in the stated window, as checked on 2026-08-24.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-07", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] USGS event page us6000tjl2 records an M7.4 earthquake 5 km S of San Jose del Palmar, Colombia, at 12:34 UTC on Aug 10, 2026 at about 107-110 km depth, reported by AP/CBS News, Reuters and Al Jazeera the same day; that single event exceeds the M6.0 threshold inside the Aug 6-20 window.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:30:41.350693+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ec1c7e8e0108dd9c943d2e675fca6a743d03a9157d46a4e18899d68fc205810f", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [30, 35] carry the claim's operative terms (usgs); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": null }, "evidence": "USGS event page us6000tjl2 records an M7.4 earthquake 5 km S of San Jose del Palmar, Colombia, at 12:34 UTC on Aug 10, 2026 at about 107-110 km depth, reported by AP/CBS News, Reuters and Al Jazeera the same day; that single event exceeds the M6.0 threshold inside the Aug 6-20 window." } }, { "statement": "Abdul El-Sayed will win the 2026 Michigan US Senate general election held on 2026-11-03.", "domain": "political", "probability": 55, "resolution": "True if official Michigan certified results or an AP race call name Abdul El-Sayed the winner of the Michigan US Senate general election, checked 2026-11-10; false otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-11-10", "citations": [ 100, 105 ], "failure_condition": "El-Sayed is not certified or called as the winner of the Michigan Senate general election by 2026-11-10, whether another candidate wins or the race remains uncalled.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-08", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:30:41.350783+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c1fd7cbe005a8a6b32abc25bda3b4c52776a8a00d030a1ead464cc6c67c1187d", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [100, 105] carry the claim's operative terms (abdul, el-sayed, michigan, senate); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "The United States and Iran both publicly confirm a concluded agreement governing commercial transit of the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-08-06 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if official US and Iranian government statements confirming a concluded Hormuz transit agreement are issued in the window and reported by at least two of Reuters, AP, AFP; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 93, 57 ], "failure_condition": "By window close no concluded agreement has been confirmed by both governments; talks ongoing, stalled, or collapsed all grade MISS.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-09", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:30:44.956940+00:00", "seal_sha256": "297b47c7d63c5a88adb898a3c97deaed4f054809a5374c2e222ff0d244745396", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [93] carry the claim's operative terms (hormuz, iran, iranian); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "A Russian missile or drone strike on Kyiv city kills at least 5 people in a single attack between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-31, per Ukrainian official casualty statements.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 60, "resolution": "TRUE if Ukrainian authorities state at least 5 killed in one strike on Kyiv city within the window, reported by at least two international news outlets; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 83, 90 ], "failure_condition": "No single strike on Kyiv city within the window carries an official Ukrainian death toll of 5 or more.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-10", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:30:44.957034+00:00", "seal_sha256": "003ed2302bd63500e6ec7ffe65adc599b060dd27073e93c336b1787239607b1b", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [83, 90] carry the claim's operative terms (attack, kill, killed, russian, strike, ukrainian); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog adds at least one entry for Gitea, n8n, or TP-Link Omada with a date-added value between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if the public CISA KEV catalog contains an entry whose vendor or product names Gitea, n8n, or TP-Link Omada with dateAdded between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-30; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 17, 18, 24 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV catalog contains no Gitea, n8n, or TP-Link Omada entry with a dateAdded value inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-11", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:30:44.957050+00:00", "seal_sha256": "23838a59751f38b49e144069a7cff675be41d785a629654350ab170f82fb542d", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [17, 24] carry the claim's operative terms (gitea, omada, tp-link); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog adds at least 12 new entries with date-added values between 2026-08-06 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 85, "resolution": "TRUE if the public CISA KEV catalog contains 12 or more entries with dateAdded between 2026-08-06 and 2026-09-30 inclusive; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 21 ], "failure_condition": "Fewer than 12 KEV entries carry a dateAdded value inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-12", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:30:44.957060+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a1fe2ddd964bab21b2b0ebc86246fd7c1e0eb082555b42354b5a2625d066c075", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior is a single KEV addition item; the >=12 count over the window appears in no cited record. Throughput claim — operator-claimed KEYLESS.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Abdul El-Sayed wins the Michigan US Senate general election held 2026-11-03.", "domain": "political", "probability": 55, "resolution": "TRUE if AP declares El-Sayed the winner or Michigan certified results show him with the most votes for US Senate; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-12-01", "citations": [ 100, 110 ], "failure_condition": "The certified or AP-called result shows another candidate winning the Michigan US Senate seat.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-13", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:30:44.957069+00:00", "seal_sha256": "18d6e43bf4600b13a5a67b79319af4524122719221257d579ec8fd0b68fc192e", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [100, 110] carry the claim's operative terms (abdul, el-sayed, michigan, senate, wins); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "Pete Hegseth departs the office of US Secretary of War, via announced resignation or removal, between 2026-08-06 and 2027-01-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if the White House or the department officially announces the resignation, removal, or departure of Hegseth with the announcement dated in the window, reported by two major outlets; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2027-02-01", "citations": [ 82 ], "failure_condition": "Hegseth remains in office through 2027-01-30 with no official departure announcement dated inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-14", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:30:44.957076+00:00", "seal_sha256": "da042a465a9480bb5948c0480f8c4046eb119143a42da0b009f468660dd2deb4", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [82] carry the claim's operative terms (pete, secretary); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "The USGS catalog records at least one magnitude 5.0 or greater earthquake within 100 km of the 2026-08-05 Sarangani M6.3 epicenter, with origin time between 2026-08-06 and 2026-09-04.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 50, "resolution": "TRUE if USGS ComCat lists at least one M5.0 or greater event within 100 km of USGS event us6000ti6x with origin time between 2026-08-06 and 2026-09-04 UTC; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-08", "citations": [ 30, 43 ], "failure_condition": "ComCat shows no M5.0 or larger event within 100 km of the mainshock epicenter during the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-15", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:30:44.957083+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3ed34e9a03098393503fba617f2fc8d5e7f2d0744b3a0aadfd301df9cb5bbea3", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [30, 43] carry the claim's operative terms (earthquake, magnitude, sarangani); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent front-month crude futures settle at or below 70.00 USD per barrel on at least one settlement date between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "economics", "probability": 31, "resolution": "Any ICE-published front-month Brent settlement price with a settlement date between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-30 is 70.00 or lower.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 57, 92, 93 ], "failure_condition": "Every ICE front-month Brent settlement inside the window prints above 70.00 USD per barrel.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3125, "n": 32, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-06T03:30:44Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260806-01" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-16", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:39:25.460435+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ff6458b339916d6de843f87842ca0787d63eb1843a1f93cf4800c9b4d5a0c618", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "A filing entered on the US Court of International Trade docket between 2026-08-06 and 2026-12-15 states that cumulative IEEPA tariff refunds issued have reached 150 billion USD or more.", "domain": "economics", "probability": 31, "resolution": "A government filing on the CIT docket dated inside the window states cumulative IEEPA refunds of at least 150 billion USD. A lower stated figure resolves false.", "deadline": "2026-12-18", "citations": [ 51 ], "failure_condition": "Cumulative IEEPA refunds as stated in CIT filings remain below 150 billion USD through 2026-12-15.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3125, "n": 32, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-06T03:30:44Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260806-02" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-17", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:39:25.460527+00:00", "seal_sha256": "aa460b81333c2e513f20a997102cf4bc2152961312dc5936c437af974282f443", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "UKMTO issues an incident advisory, or CENTCOM issues a statement, reporting an attack on or seizure of a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman between 2026-08-06 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 31, "resolution": "A UKMTO advisory or CENTCOM statement dated inside the window reports an attack on or seizure of a commercial vessel in the named waters.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 57, 92, 93 ], "failure_condition": "No attack on or seizure of a commercial vessel occurs in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman during the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3125, "n": 32, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-06T03:30:44Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260806-03" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-18", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:39:25.460544+00:00", "seal_sha256": "02edf4919d7c9f9e37e49e7d081baa9a7f673f11f465236cc32b6e21c963f080", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog carries at least one entry naming Gitea in its vendorProject or product field, with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-06 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 31, "resolution": "A CISA KEV entry naming Gitea in vendorProject or product carries a dateAdded value inside the window. No such entry resolves false.", "deadline": "2027-01-06", "citations": [ 17 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV catalog holds no Gitea entry with a dateAdded value inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3125, "n": 32, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-06T03:30:44Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260806-04" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-19", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:39:25.460555+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f4c5ec0fe8d03d4116d1f26ec2ba897aeffc3bb8f55f176cdd2a4334b0970bff", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "The USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one event of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 300 km of the epicenter of USGS event us6000ti6x, with an origin time between 2026-08-06 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 31, "resolution": "A USGS FDSN event query for magnitude 6.0 or greater, radius 300 km around the us6000ti6x epicenter, origin time inside the window, returns one or more events.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 30, 43 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS catalog returns zero magnitude 6.0 or greater events within that radius and time window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3125, "n": 32, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-06T03:30:44Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260806-05" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-20", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:39:25.460563+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e7b19123c807143af6c2b5b0231b6907ec54578438717e218a793c88b51909e0", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "The House Committee on Ethics publishes a statement or report on ethics.house.gov naming Representative Max Miller, dated between 2026-08-06 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 31, "resolution": "A document published on ethics.house.gov and dated inside the window names Representative Max Miller. No such document resolves false.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 37 ], "failure_condition": "The Committee on Ethics issues no public document naming Max Miller during the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3125, "n": 32, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-06T03:30:44Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260806-06" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-21", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:39:25.460571+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ab5c91a23795a6d051bfbc108febe298f91baf6927f6a15bf85fe42b055242b1", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-06 and 2026-08-20, the USGS Earthquake Catalog will record at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater anywhere in the world.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 31, "resolution": "True if the USGS Earthquake Catalog lists any event of magnitude 6.0 or greater with origin time between 2026-08-06 and 2026-08-20, checked 2026-08-24; false otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-08-24", "citations": [ 30, 35 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS Earthquake Catalog shows no magnitude 6.0 or greater event globally with origin time in the stated window, as checked on 2026-08-24.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3125, "n": 32, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-06T03:30:44Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260806-07" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-22", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] USGS event page us6000tjl2 records an M7.4 earthquake 5 km S of San Jose del Palmar, Colombia, at 12:34 UTC on Aug 10, 2026 at about 107-110 km depth, reported by AP/CBS News, Reuters and Al Jazeera the same day; that single event exceeds the M6.0 threshold inside the Aug 6-20 window.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:39:29.457120+00:00", "seal_sha256": "48c015e04f601e94d4e576141f589f49a7f7993c1f2a0e78a54c6240bec89171", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": null }, "evidence": "USGS event page us6000tjl2 records an M7.4 earthquake 5 km S of San Jose del Palmar, Colombia, at 12:34 UTC on Aug 10, 2026 at about 107-110 km depth, reported by AP/CBS News, Reuters and Al Jazeera the same day; that single event exceeds the M6.0 threshold inside the Aug 6-20 window." } }, { "statement": "Abdul El-Sayed will win the 2026 Michigan US Senate general election held on 2026-11-03.", "domain": "political", "probability": 31, "resolution": "True if official Michigan certified results or an AP race call name Abdul El-Sayed the winner of the Michigan US Senate general election, checked 2026-11-10; false otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-11-10", "citations": [ 100, 105 ], "failure_condition": "El-Sayed is not certified or called as the winner of the Michigan Senate general election by 2026-11-10, whether another candidate wins or the race remains uncalled.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3125, "n": 32, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-06T03:30:44Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260806-08" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-23", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:39:29.457209+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e1639819c338d680a3be29fbb96af89940a07dc3079770e54252d90326709c19", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "The United States and Iran both publicly confirm a concluded agreement governing commercial transit of the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-08-06 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 31, "resolution": "TRUE if official US and Iranian government statements confirming a concluded Hormuz transit agreement are issued in the window and reported by at least two of Reuters, AP, AFP; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 93, 57 ], "failure_condition": "By window close no concluded agreement has been confirmed by both governments; talks ongoing, stalled, or collapsed all grade MISS.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3125, "n": 32, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-06T03:30:44Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260806-09" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-24", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:39:32.946938+00:00", "seal_sha256": "75047c78bab8d197e2cbdd58e1b58e683cc6cd57779a2d519cbfd2de014f197c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "A Russian missile or drone strike on Kyiv city kills at least 5 people in a single attack between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-31, per Ukrainian official casualty statements.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 31, "resolution": "TRUE if Ukrainian authorities state at least 5 killed in one strike on Kyiv city within the window, reported by at least two international news outlets; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 83, 90 ], "failure_condition": "No single strike on Kyiv city within the window carries an official Ukrainian death toll of 5 or more.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3125, "n": 32, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-06T03:30:44Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260806-10" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-25", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:39:32.947035+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f7b3cb37f6cce7546e4bcb68b84302286f07641731156a8e35524b4700229abf", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog adds at least one entry for Gitea, n8n, or TP-Link Omada with a date-added value between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 31, "resolution": "TRUE if the public CISA KEV catalog contains an entry whose vendor or product names Gitea, n8n, or TP-Link Omada with dateAdded between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-30; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 17, 18, 24 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV catalog contains no Gitea, n8n, or TP-Link Omada entry with a dateAdded value inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3125, "n": 32, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-06T03:30:44Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260806-11" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-26", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:39:32.947051+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c3c0b282332a92a912f55ca7216a79ccfc0c692501b6920757f326e9c5e44d7a", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog adds at least 12 new entries with date-added values between 2026-08-06 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 31, "resolution": "TRUE if the public CISA KEV catalog contains 12 or more entries with dateAdded between 2026-08-06 and 2026-09-30 inclusive; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 21 ], "failure_condition": "Fewer than 12 KEV entries carry a dateAdded value inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3125, "n": 32, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-06T03:30:44Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260806-12" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-27", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:39:32.947061+00:00", "seal_sha256": "77018eee76001550c19009ac975c7d9c4e6d89581296f0f5090427dfe325e1a7", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "Abdul El-Sayed wins the Michigan US Senate general election held 2026-11-03.", "domain": "political", "probability": 31, "resolution": "TRUE if AP declares El-Sayed the winner or Michigan certified results show him with the most votes for US Senate; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-12-01", "citations": [ 100, 110 ], "failure_condition": "The certified or AP-called result shows another candidate winning the Michigan US Senate seat.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3125, "n": 32, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-06T03:30:44Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260806-13" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-28", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:39:32.947070+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3d14a901ee130d314d022cd2c96fb2405afc7261d2d19e487f3bb2caa4e7080c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "Pete Hegseth departs the office of US Secretary of War, via announced resignation or removal, between 2026-08-06 and 2027-01-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 31, "resolution": "TRUE if the White House or the department officially announces the resignation, removal, or departure of Hegseth with the announcement dated in the window, reported by two major outlets; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2027-02-01", "citations": [ 82 ], "failure_condition": "Hegseth remains in office through 2027-01-30 with no official departure announcement dated inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3125, "n": 32, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-06T03:30:44Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260806-14" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-29", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:39:32.947077+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b1030f452a24d20712c1eba92dbeb3c412a093fcd0060d631f5bdaba2e25d7c0", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "The USGS catalog records at least one magnitude 5.0 or greater earthquake within 100 km of the 2026-08-05 Sarangani M6.3 epicenter, with origin time between 2026-08-06 and 2026-09-04.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 31, "resolution": "TRUE if USGS ComCat lists at least one M5.0 or greater event within 100 km of USGS event us6000ti6x with origin time between 2026-08-06 and 2026-09-04 UTC; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-08", "citations": [ 30, 43 ], "failure_condition": "ComCat shows no M5.0 or larger event within 100 km of the mainshock epicenter during the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3125, "n": 32, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-06T03:30:44Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260806-15" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-05_1501.md", "id": "KKR-20260806-30", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-05_1501.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T03:39:32.947085+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d893815a3095cafaad683a33ccc040c11c67b9a8075a3af4bd73fdc4acffdbae", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-15 and 2026-08-22, Iran and Oman will publicly confirm a maritime coordination agreement for the Strait of Hormuz via a joint statement from both foreign ministries.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "A joint statement issued by the foreign ministries of Iran and Oman confirms the establishment of a maritime coordination agreement for the Strait of Hormuz, specifying route coordinates and operational protocols.", "deadline": "2026-08-24", "citations": [ 77, 124, 125 ], "failure_condition": "No joint statement from the foreign ministries of Iran and Oman confirms a maritime coordination agreement for the Strait of Hormuz during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260806-31", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-06_0426.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-06_0426.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "Void-or-stand window 08-15 to 08-24 lapsed unruled; a void after the event window closed would be outcome-selected (08-04 amendment) - stands, resolved as written. No Iran-Oman joint statement inside 08-15..08-22: Oman MFA 23 Jun (keep talking), Iranian spokesman 5 Aug (coordinates, no joint statement), corridor joint statement 25 Aug via ONA/IRNA. KK24 11.1 (already-decided in substance at seal; unstructured-prose foreclosure is a coverage boundary) and KK25 complementarity GAP cross-printed.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T04:28:04.570520+00:00", "seal_sha256": "11ade67c8196aa1d1ba50440e9abbd590287d43bfb7f423e0c233bb2b18b431c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [77, 124, 125] carry the claim's operative terms (agreement, coordinate, coordination, hormuz, iran, oman); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "operator", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": null }, "evidence": "The Oman Foreign Ministry site shows two Iran-Oman joint statements: one dated June 23, 2026 agreeing only to keep talking through a joint working group on future administration of Hormuz navigation, and one dated Aug 25, 2026 following foreign-minister consultations that Bloomberg (via Rigzone and Insurance Journal, Aug 26, 2026) describes as an interim framework for a temporary joint maritime corridor with technical talks continuing toward a permanent corridor; neither falls inside Aug 15-22 and neither specifies route coordinates or operational protocols." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-18 and 2026-08-25, a verified cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-63077 will be reported by at least two independent sources with differing geopolitical affiliations.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "At least two independent sources, one from a Western outlet and one from a non-Western outlet, report a confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-63077 between 2026-08-18 and 2026-08-25.", "deadline": "2026-08-27", "citations": [ 29, 36 ], "failure_condition": "No such attack is reported by two independently biased sources during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260806-32", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-06_0426.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-06_0426.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] CVE-2026-63077 is a real JetBrains TeamCity RCE; JetBrains confirmed active exploitation in an early-August update, CISA added it to KEV 2026-08-05 with an 08-08 deadline, and The Hacker News and SecurityWeek reported exploitation around 08-05 to 08-07.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T04:28:04.570628+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b05959f94aed340a3a2a3298c0a0798cea9083c591098393c946bd06723e324f", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [29] carry the claim's operative terms (exploiting); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "CVE-2026-63077 is a real JetBrains TeamCity RCE; JetBrains confirmed active exploitation in an early-August update, CISA added it to KEV 2026-08-05 with an 08-08 deadline, and The Hacker News and SecurityWeek reported exploitation around 08-05 to 08-07." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-29, the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce a rate hike of at least 25 basis points in a public statement.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 35, "resolution": "The Federal Reserve issues a public statement announcing a 25 basis point or greater increase in the federal funds rate between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-29.", "deadline": "2026-08-31", "citations": [ 74 ], "failure_condition": "The Federal Reserve does not announce a rate hike of at least 25 basis points during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260806-33", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-06_0426.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-06_0426.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] No Fed rate increase occurred 08-22 to 08-29; Warsh at Jackson Hole 08-28 signaled work to do without acting, and September-hike odds near 60 to 68 percent on 08-31 to 09-01 entail no August move.", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T04:28:04.570645+00:00", "seal_sha256": "40795bc5cfec231bc3ae23b059b93076c95f83732978d81eb95a0dbe5537a225", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [74] carry the claim's operative terms (rate); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "No Fed rate increase occurred 08-22 to 08-29; Warsh at Jackson Hole 08-28 signaled work to do without acting, and September-hike odds near 60 to 68 percent on 08-31 to 09-01 entail no August move." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-24 and 2026-08-31, a confirmed cyberattack using the Khunt post-exploitation toolkit will be reported by at least two independent sources with differing geopolitical affiliations.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 20, "resolution": "At least two independent sources, one from a Western outlet and one from a non-Western outlet, report a confirmed cyberattack using the Khunt post-exploitation toolkit between 2026-08-24 and 2026-08-31.", "deadline": "2026-09-02", "citations": [ 18 ], "failure_condition": "No such attack is reported by two independently biased sources during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260806-34", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-06_0426.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-06_0426.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T04:28:04.570656+00:00", "seal_sha256": "48efd2dba668e48a56786a4846708f01124a81c1e0370cee4fe689292f6b85b3", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [18] carry the claim's operative terms (khunt, post-exploitation, toolkit); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-25 and 2026-09-01, a verified wildfire will be reported in the U.S. Southwest (Arizona, New Mexico, or Nevada) with a containment status of 'under control' or 'contained' by 2026-09-05.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 40, "resolution": "A wildfire in Arizona, New Mexico, or Nevada is reported by a U.S. government or international disaster alert system (e.g., GDACS) with a containment status of 'under control' or 'contained' by 2026-09-05.", "deadline": "2026-09-07", "citations": [ 39, 40, 41 ], "failure_condition": "No such wildfire is reported with a containment status of 'under control' or 'contained' by 2026-09-05.", "id": "KKR-20260806-35", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-06_0426.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-06_0426.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T04:28:04.570666+00:00", "seal_sha256": "92751ddeb1810c5451ec32eedab8b0c98a97edbab347436b87a3d7dacf87b6b6", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [39, 40, 41] carry the claim's operative terms (alert, gdac); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-02, a confirmed political resignation of a senior U.S. government official (e.g., cabinet member, senator, or agency head) will be reported by at least two independent news outlets with differing political leanings.", "domain": "political", "probability": 30, "resolution": "A confirmed resignation of a senior U.S. government official (e.g., cabinet member, senator, or agency head) is reported by at least two independent news outlets with differing political affiliations between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-02.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 102, 104 ], "failure_condition": "No such resignation is reported by two independently biased outlets during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260806-36", "date_issued": "2026-08-06", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-06_0426.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-06_0426.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "sealed_at": "2026-08-06T04:28:04.570675+00:00", "seal_sha256": "afa0e05fccb1a1d136b5c20e8070ba97bd4658746f5bb7aea6b5df8013d141a2", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [102] carry the claim's operative terms (political); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08" }, { "statement": "A drone strike in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, results in at least one casualty between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-17.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 32, "resolution": "At least one report from a credible news outlet (BBC World, Al Jazeera, or Guardian World) published between 2026-08-12 and 2026-08-19 confirms a drone strike in Zaporizhzhia with at least one casualty.", "deadline": "2026-08-21", "citations": [ 3 ], "failure_condition": "No credible news outlet confirms a drone strike in Zaporizhzhia with at least one casualty between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-17.", "id": "KKR-20260807-01", "date_issued": "2026-08-07", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-07_1747.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-07_1747.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Al Jazeera, 2026-08-18, reported a drone strike at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant that killed one nuclear specialist and wounded 17; publication falls inside the 08-12 to 08-19 reporting window the criterion sets.", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-07T17:49:21.453869+00:00", "seal_sha256": "493e37e5aba67bf9a490d40725b2b381a4932fef29944a7c79492f0c30bcf4b4", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "cited item is a Celsius Holdings corporate story - priors supply nothing about Zaporizhzhia or drones; deducibility unanswerable, keyed per the ungrounded-priors rule", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Al Jazeera, 2026-08-18, reported a drone strike at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant that killed one nuclear specialist and wounded 17; publication falls inside the 08-12 to 08-19 reporting window the criterion sets." } }, { "statement": "A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas is confirmed by both sides via a joint statement between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-17.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 25, "resolution": "A joint statement from both Israel and Hamas, published by at least two independent outlets (e.g., BBC World, Al Jazeera, Guardian World), confirms a ceasefire agreement between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-17.", "deadline": "2026-08-21", "citations": [ 2 ], "failure_condition": "No joint statement from both Israel and Hamas confirming a ceasefire is published by at least two independent outlets between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-17.", "id": "KKR-20260807-02", "date_issued": "2026-08-07", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-07_1747.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-07_1747.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] NBC News (Aug 17-18, 2026) reported the renewed Gaza push as a plan endorsed by Trump and Hamas but rejected by Israel, with Netanyahu and Kushner agreeing only that a US general should oversee a Hamas weapons handover; Al Jazeera (July 31, 2026) reported the Board of Peace disarmament roadmap that Hamas accepted while Israel had not publicly agreed; no joint Israel-Hamas statement confirming a ceasefire agreement between Aug 10 and Aug 17 was reported by any outlet.", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-07T17:49:21.453905+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9619a7899ce7618b1b8d44fb9e1b9bacc2baae73e37a14632678e6eb3cc56f2e", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "cited item is the Senate Russia-sanctions bill - priors supply nothing about Israel-Hamas or any ceasefire track; keyless cannot be evidenced on this record", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "NBC News (Aug 17-18, 2026) reported the renewed Gaza push as a plan endorsed by Trump and Hamas but rejected by Israel, with Netanyahu and Kushner agreeing only that a US general should oversee a Hamas weapons handover; Al Jazeera (July 31, 2026) reported the Board of Peace disarmament roadmap that Hamas accepted while Israel had not publicly agreed; no joint Israel-Hamas statement confirming a ceasefire agreement between Aug 10 and Aug 17 was reported by any outlet." } }, { "statement": "A new tropical cyclone named CHAN-HOM-26 causes at least one fatality in a country affected by the storm between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-17.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 30, "resolution": "At least one credible news report (BBC World, Al Jazeera, Guardian World) published between 2026-08-12 and 2026-08-19 confirms a fatality linked to CHAN-HOM-26 in a country affected by the storm.", "deadline": "2026-08-21", "citations": [ 50 ], "failure_condition": "No credible news report confirms a fatality linked to CHAN-HOM-26 in a country affected by the storm between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-17.", "id": "KKR-20260807-03", "date_issued": "2026-08-07", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-07_1747.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-07_1747.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] AP (Aug 11-12, 2026, via US News and The Hill) reported Tropical Storm Chan-hom made landfall in Ibaraki prefecture late Aug 11, cut power to 22,000 homes and slightly injured seven people in Iwate, Ibaraki and Tochigi, with no deaths reported; no BBC World, Al Jazeera or Guardian World report published Aug 12-19 attributes a fatality to Chan-hom in any affected country.", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-07T17:49:21.453921+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8cb9bc20967b92180e3243f3af9e22839f4ac2da71c860eb664559142f83b5dd", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [50] carry the claim's operative terms (affected, chan-hom, cyclone, tropical); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "AP (Aug 11-12, 2026, via US News and The Hill) reported Tropical Storm Chan-hom made landfall in Ibaraki prefecture late Aug 11, cut power to 22,000 homes and slightly injured seven people in Iwate, Ibaraki and Tochigi, with no deaths reported; no BBC World, Al Jazeera or Guardian World report published Aug 12-19 attributes a fatality to Chan-hom in any affected country." } }, { "statement": "A new political scandal involving Todd Blanche, U.S. Attorney General nominee, is confirmed by two independent outlets between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-17.", "domain": "political", "probability": 22, "resolution": "Two independent news outlets (e.g., Guardian World, CNBC, BBC World) publish reports between 2026-08-12 and 2026-08-19 confirming a new political scandal involving Todd Blanche.", "deadline": "2026-08-21", "citations": [ 104, 105 ], "failure_condition": "No two independent news outlets confirm a new political scandal involving Todd Blanche between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-17.", "id": "KKR-20260807-04", "date_issued": "2026-08-07", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-07_1747.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-07_1747.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] In-window coverage of Blanche consists of his Aug 16 Sunday-show appearances, where CNN (Aug 16, 2026) and The Hill (Aug 16, 2026) reported him declining to pledge independence from the White House and reaffirming that the anti-weaponization fund is dead, plus a Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press review (mid-Aug 2026) of his record on leak subpoenas; none of these is reported by two independent outlets as a new political scandal, and the fund and IRS-settlement controversies that dogged his confirmation predate Aug 10.", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-07T17:49:21.453933+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3b074ea08bbebd8282ca9f739cc571607889d6da56888335efc9cca7f5a7a60c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [104, 105] carry the claim's operative terms (attorney, blanche, cnbc, general, guardian, todd); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "In-window coverage of Blanche consists of his Aug 16 Sunday-show appearances, where CNN (Aug 16, 2026) and The Hill (Aug 16, 2026) reported him declining to pledge independence from the White House and reaffirming that the anti-weaponization fund is dead, plus a Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press review (mid-Aug 2026) of his record on leak subpoenas; none of these is reported by two independent outlets as a new political scandal, and the fund and IRS-settlement controversies that dogged his confirmation predate Aug 10." } }, { "statement": "The US Senate confirms Todd Blanche as Attorney General by recorded roll call vote between 2026-08-07 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 88, "resolution": "Congress.gov or senate.gov roll call record shows a Senate vote confirming Todd Blanche as United States Attorney General with a vote date between 2026-08-07 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 105, 112, 118 ], "failure_condition": "The Senate holds no confirming vote on Blanche on or before 2026-09-30, whether through withdrawal of the nomination, failed cloture, or the vote never being scheduled.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-07_1747.md", "id": "KKR-20260807-05", "date_issued": "2026-08-07", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-07_1747.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-07T21:55:54.002541+00:00", "seal_sha256": "eb8308a6ec4decf87a891d384d1841db7b9748acdabb8394b81af454a76b4bde", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [105, 112, 118] carry the claim's operative terms (attorney, blanche, general, todd); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "Houthi forces take control of Marib city, Yemen, between 2026-08-08 and 2027-01-15.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 15, "resolution": "At least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, or Al Jazeera report Marib city under Houthi control, or the Yemeni government concedes its loss, with event dates inside the window.", "deadline": "2027-01-19", "citations": [ 86, 99 ], "failure_condition": "Marib city remains under Yemeni government control through 2027-01-15, with no Houthi capture of the city occurring in the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-07_1747.md", "id": "KKR-20260807-06", "date_issued": "2026-08-07", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-07_1747.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-07T21:55:54.002583+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e041b39ab1a311ceab8473e284e3358fe8d1979d6daca47f8b0ab07ce662b3c0", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [86, 99] carry the claim's operative terms (force, houthi, marib, yemen, yemeni); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "A vulnerability in Claude Code or Gemini CLI disclosed in early August 2026 is added to the CISA KEV catalog with a dateAdded between 2026-08-08 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 10, "resolution": "The CISA KEV JSON feed lists a CVE whose product or description names Claude Code or Gemini CLI, with dateAdded between 2026-08-08 and 2026-11-30.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 26 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry naming Claude Code or Gemini CLI carries a dateAdded value within the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-07_1747.md", "id": "KKR-20260807-07", "date_issued": "2026-08-07", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-07_1747.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-07T21:55:54.002597+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8b45c41435b83279ea7202b991c97d837b9496a7a3d4c292ef755114245c41fb", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [26] carry the claim's operative terms (claude, code, gemini); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "The US Senate confirms Todd Blanche as Attorney General on a recorded roll call vote held between 2026-08-07 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 85, "resolution": "Congress.gov Senate roll call records show a successful confirmation vote on the nomination of Todd Blanche as Attorney General, vote date between 2026-08-07 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 104, 105, 112, 118 ], "failure_condition": "No successful Senate confirmation vote on the Blanche nomination occurs inside the window, whether through delay past 2026-09-30, withdrawal, or defeat.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-07_1747.md", "id": "KKR-20260807-08", "date_issued": "2026-08-07", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-07_1747.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-07T21:55:57.932376+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d6f40f4bc127016121992a9e44869e20ed1f6c127882315bad6c228fb809ddc4", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [104, 105, 112, 118] carry the claim's operative terms (attorney, blanche, confirmation, general, todd, vote); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "The Russia sanctions bill passed by the Senate on 2026-08-07 becomes public law between 2026-08-08 and 2026-12-18.", "domain": "political", "probability": 25, "resolution": "Congress.gov shows the Senate-passed Russia sanctions measure championed by Lindsey Graham with status Became Law, dated between 2026-08-08 and 2026-12-18.", "deadline": "2026-12-22", "citations": [ 103 ], "failure_condition": "The measure is short of enactment at the deadline, whether stalled in the House, passed but unsigned, or vetoed without override.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-07_1747.md", "id": "KKR-20260807-09", "date_issued": "2026-08-07", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-07_1747.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-07T21:55:57.932396+00:00", "seal_sha256": "adbb8b88d56ab988c128f18ca561a76af140eec6cab59ae31b3cc76bbdbc6eaf", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [103] carry the claim's operative terms (bill, championed, passed, russia, sanction, senate); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "Levi Strauss and Co files a Form 8-K disclosing a material cybersecurity incident under Item 1.05 between 2026-08-08 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 18, "resolution": "SEC EDGAR shows a Form 8-K filed by Levi Strauss and Co with filing date between 2026-08-08 and 2026-11-30 containing Item 1.05 Material Cybersecurity Incidents.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 15 ], "failure_condition": "No Item 1.05 disclosure by Levi Strauss and Co is filed inside the window, including where the incident is disclosed only under Item 8.01 or in a periodic report.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-07_1747.md", "id": "KKR-20260807-10", "date_issued": "2026-08-07", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-07_1747.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-07T21:55:57.932407+00:00", "seal_sha256": "941cc56e6437e8f7e50d42684c1462d4d6a85c811baa75d5ea1ef3c096630b38", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [15] carry the claim's operative terms (levi, straus); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "CISA adds at least one WordPress core or WordPress plugin vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a date added between 2026-08-08 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 32, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog JSON contains at least one entry whose vendorProject or product field names WordPress, with dateAdded between 2026-08-08 and 2026-12-31.", "deadline": "2027-01-07", "citations": [ 18 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry naming WordPress in vendorProject or product carries a dateAdded inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-07_1747.md", "id": "KKR-20260807-11", "date_issued": "2026-08-07", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-07_1747.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-07T21:55:57.932415+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4e067bc09ff835f2ee4156f89271e3a39f3b90ffb75c1cb7ff03dcdc34a43cf0", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [18] carry the claim's operative terms (wordpres); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "Houthi forces launch a ground assault on Marib city or its immediate outskirts between 2026-08-08 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 27, "resolution": "Al Jazeera and at least one of Reuters, AP, or BBC report a Houthi ground offensive against Marib city or its immediate outskirts occurring inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 86, 99 ], "failure_condition": "Hostilities around Marib inside the window consist only of shelling, drone or missile strikes, or front-line skirmishing without a ground assault on the city or its outskirts.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-07_1747.md", "id": "KKR-20260807-12", "date_issued": "2026-08-07", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-07_1747.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-07T21:55:57.932424+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4832392802f80933b932e4ec497d32ed0d058cfd217020ad2b18658419f73655", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [86, 99] carry the claim's operative terms (force, houthi, marib); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "The Colombian government publicly announces suspension or termination of peace negotiations with the ELN between 2026-08-08 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 38, "resolution": "Two of Reuters, AP, El Tiempo, or BBC report a Colombian government announcement suspending or ending negotiations with the ELN, dated inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 88, 109 ], "failure_condition": "No Colombian government act suspending or ending ELN negotiations occurs inside the window, including where talks stall or lapse without formal announcement.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-07_1747.md", "id": "KKR-20260807-13", "date_issued": "2026-08-07", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-07_1747.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-07T21:55:57.932431+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a26fc4044ae6c4f50960e99ff7ffe4353cb0d7e36960470930f075d36476a2fd", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [88, 109] carry the claim's operative terms (colombian); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "The Copernicus Climate Change Service ranks August 2026 among the three warmest Augusts on record for Europe.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 45, "resolution": "The C3S monthly climate bulletin covering August 2026 states that European average surface air temperature ranked first, second, or third warmest for August in its record.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 48, 122 ], "failure_condition": "European average surface air temperature for August 2026 ranks fourth warmest or lower in the C3S record.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-07_1747.md", "id": "KKR-20260807-14", "date_issued": "2026-08-07", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-07_1747.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-07T21:55:57.932440+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e31dadece82f9d9fa175c8376d14ca12a9d042c608c5d2fac8f087f0a18289f7", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [48, 122] carry the claim's operative terms (europe, european, record, temperature); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "Spain will move beyond its stated threat and implement reciprocal entry checks on travelers from Italy, between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-24.", "domain": "political", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if the Spanish Interior Ministry announces active reciprocal checks on Italy-origin travelers between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-24, confirmed by at least two of Al Jazeera, BBC, or DW; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-08-27", "citations": [ 82, 83, 107 ], "failure_condition": "By 2026-08-27, Spain has not moved beyond its stated threat to active reciprocal checks on Italy-origin travelers.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-07_1747.md", "id": "KKR-20260807-15", "date_issued": "2026-08-07", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-07_1747.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Spain Interior Ministry announced reciprocal checks on Italy-origin travelers on 2026-08-07 effective 08-08 and running to 09-07, per France 24 08-08 and RTE 08-07; The Local 08-10 describes checks actively applied from 08-10 across the window.", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-07T21:56:02.079821+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fe826bcb3804425679aec0e2779b0db1137289d06d5acb680aa95e4705a3c063", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [82, 83] carry the claim's operative terms (check, entry, italy, italy-origin, jazeera, reciprocal); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Spain Interior Ministry announced reciprocal checks on Italy-origin travelers on 2026-08-07 effective 08-08 and running to 09-07, per France 24 08-08 and RTE 08-07; The Local 08-10 describes checks actively applied from 08-10 across the window." } }, { "statement": "Houthi forces will be reported to have captured or besieged a district-level administrative center in Marib or Hodeidah governorate, between 2026-08-14 and 2026-08-28.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 22, "resolution": "TRUE if at least two of Al Jazeera, Reuters, AP, or the Yemeni government report Houthi capture or siege of a named district center between 2026-08-14 and 2026-08-28; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-01", "citations": [ 86, 99 ], "failure_condition": "By 2026-09-01, no district-level Houthi capture or siege in Marib or Hodeidah has been reported by at least two sources.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-07_1747.md", "id": "KKR-20260807-16", "date_issued": "2026-08-07", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-07_1747.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] AJ 08-18 describes Hodeidah-front fighting concentrated near government-held Hays and al-Khawkhah and Houthi missile strikes on Marib city, without any AJ, Reuters, AP, or Yemeni government report of Houthi capture or siege of a named district center in either governorate by 08-28.", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-07T21:56:02.079840+00:00", "seal_sha256": "60b513d9ae3ce4ea9dd53504a63c5a53279e641b4ba2d236c0c17b4ddc1c1135", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [86, 99] carry the claim's operative terms (force, houthi, jazeera, marib, yemeni); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "AJ 08-18 describes Hodeidah-front fighting concentrated near government-held Hays and al-Khawkhah and Houthi missile strikes on Marib city, without any AJ, Reuters, AP, or Yemeni government report of Houthi capture or siege of a named district center in either governorate by 08-28." } }, { "statement": "The ELN will be reported responsible for an attack killing at least one Colombian security-force member, between 2026-08-14 and 2026-08-28.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 42, "resolution": "TRUE if the Colombian Defense Ministry or at least two of Reuters, AP, or El Tiempo report an ELN-attributed killing of a security-force member between 2026-08-14 and 2026-08-28; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-01", "citations": [ 88 ], "failure_condition": "By 2026-09-01, no ELN-attributed fatal attack on Colombian security forces has been reported.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-07_1747.md", "id": "KKR-20260807-17", "date_issued": "2026-08-07", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-07_1747.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-07T21:56:02.079851+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0540f61fbecc3aef793864319b7e538c3d83975065b30201bdff3e4f559af0a8", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [88] carry the claim's operative terms (colombian); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08" }, { "statement": "BLS will report a second consecutive month of net job losses for August 2026, in the Employment Situation release published between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-12.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the BLS Employment Situation report covering August 2026, released between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-12, shows negative net nonfarm payroll change; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-15", "citations": [ 38, 57, 81 ], "failure_condition": "The BLS report covering August 2026 shows a zero or positive nonfarm payroll change, or is not released by 2026-09-15.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-07_1747.md", "id": "KKR-20260807-18", "date_issued": "2026-08-07", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-07_1747.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-07T21:56:02.079859+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8e1867077d326d207ac06724b29c48fc73afecacf1c6364198d25ddfb8a278f0", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [38] carry the claim's operative terms (employment); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "The US Senate will vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-11.", "domain": "political", "probability": 60, "resolution": "TRUE if the Senate confirms Blanche by roll-call vote between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-11, per congress.gov or at least two of NPR, CNBC, or Guardian; FALSE if rejected, withdrawn, or no vote occurs.", "deadline": "2026-09-15", "citations": [ 105, 112, 118 ], "failure_condition": "By 2026-09-15, the Senate has not confirmed Blanche, or has rejected the nomination, or it was withdrawn.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-07_1747.md", "id": "KKR-20260807-19", "date_issued": "2026-08-07", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-07_1747.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-07T21:56:02.079867+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b5469cd700b58ad6c8ea3a4ae9c6986463cca51dd743dc520dfa9eeae0124368", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [105, 112, 118] carry the claim's operative terms (attorney, blanche, general, todd); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a drone attack using a Shahed-type UAV will be confirmed by at least two independently biased sources (one from RU, one from UA) targeting a civilian infrastructure site in Donetsk, Ukraine, resulting in at least one structural damage report.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog does not carry a date-added value between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24 for a vulnerability exploited in a drone attack on a civilian infrastructure site in Donetsk, Ukraine, and no two independently biased sources (one from RU, one from UA) corroborate a drone attack with structural damage during that window.", "deadline": "2026-08-26", "citations": [ 66, 70 ], "failure_condition": "A drone attack using a Shahed-type UAV targeting a civilian infrastructure site in Donetsk, Ukraine, is confirmed by at least two independently biased sources (one from RU, one from UA) and results in at least one structural damage report between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260808-01", "date_issued": "2026-08-08", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-08_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-08_1517.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "AS WRITTEN per the KK28 standing order. Finding 02 applies: statement affirms the strike, resolution resolves TRUE on its absence; hit and miss on this row carry inverted sense relative to the statement. Juror A (searched) found no RU+UA cross-bias confirmation of a Shahed strike on Donetsk civilian infrastructure 21-24 Aug; the negated criterion is met.", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-08T15:19:28.684804+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1836bcb66304948ce1bdfbbc2dafe675ca7415c75315fabddc0f21f87a757c58", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "cited items are a US jobs print and a Hormuz item - priors supply nothing about Donetsk, Shahed strikes, or infrastructure; keyed per the ungrounded-priors rule", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "operator", "verdicts": { "claude": "AMBIGUOUS", "qwen": null }, "evidence": "No report from both a Russian-aligned and a Ukrainian source of a Shahed-type strike on a civilian infrastructure site in Donetsk with structural damage between Aug 21 and Aug 24, 2026 was found; ISW/Critical Threats (Aug 21-24, 2026) records Russian drone packages hitting Donetsk Oblast among other regions on Aug 20-21 per Ukrainian officials, and Reuters photographs (Aug 16, 2026) show Ukrainian drone damage in occupied Donetsk City, but neither is a dual-source, in-window, Shahed-on-civilian-site report." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-24 and 2026-08-31, a major earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or higher will occur in the United States, as recorded by the USGS Significant Quakes feed.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 15, "resolution": "The USGS Significant Quakes feed records a magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake in the United States between 2026-08-24 and 2026-08-31.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 26, 41 ], "failure_condition": "No magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake is recorded in the United States between 2026-08-24 and 2026-08-31 by the USGS Significant Quakes feed.", "id": "KKR-20260808-02", "date_issued": "2026-08-08", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-08_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-08_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-08T15:19:28.684826+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5c711c4cbe4803b23b8e5b10a47d99a100a15a8bf99739f2bb9b5944b3190165", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [26, 41] carry the claim's operative terms (earthquake, magnitude, quake, significant, state, united); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31, the US Senate will pass a resolution to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General, as recorded in the official Congressional Record.", "domain": "political", "probability": 85, "resolution": "The Congressional Record contains a formal vote confirming Todd Blanche as Attorney General of the United States between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31.", "deadline": "2026-09-05", "citations": [ 92, 108 ], "failure_condition": "The Congressional Record does not contain a formal vote confirming Todd Blanche as Attorney General of the United States between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31.", "id": "KKR-20260808-03", "date_issued": "2026-08-08", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-08_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-08_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-08T15:19:28.684838+00:00", "seal_sha256": "bdb13ab4ff9019402cb5cf27c840afaf6bcb3123eb24ca7526315b71d345b2bd", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [92, 108] carry the claim's operative terms (attorney, blanche, general, senate, todd, vote); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03, a new wildfire will be reported in the United States by the GDACS Alerts feed, with a confirmed area burned exceeding 10,000 acres.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 20, "resolution": "The GDACS Alerts feed records a new wildfire in the United States between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03 with a confirmed area burned exceeding 10,000 acres.", "deadline": "2026-09-07", "citations": [ 39, 41 ], "failure_condition": "No new wildfire in the United States is recorded by the GDACS Alerts feed between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03 with a confirmed area burned exceeding 10,000 acres.", "id": "KKR-20260808-04", "date_issued": "2026-08-08", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-08_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-08_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-08T15:19:28.684848+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c2c42d82ed7cc5ba680a53bd418bb5c0381aa98d01f63b5b56c6ab90481188a1", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [39, 41] carry the claim's operative terms (alert, gdac, state, united); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-28 and 2026-09-04, a coordinated cyberattack targeting at least three financial institutions in Europe will be confirmed by two independent cybersecurity sources, resulting in data exfiltration.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 18, "resolution": "Two independent cybersecurity sources confirm a coordinated cyberattack targeting at least three financial institutions in Europe between 2026-08-28 and 2026-09-04, resulting in data exfiltration.", "deadline": "2026-09-08", "citations": [ 13, 17 ], "failure_condition": "No coordinated cyberattack targeting at least three financial institutions in Europe is confirmed by two independent cybersecurity sources between 2026-08-28 and 2026-09-04, or no data exfiltration is confirmed.", "id": "KKR-20260808-05", "date_issued": "2026-08-08", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-08_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-08_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-08T15:19:28.684857+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1e46843aa7e98f59722492c81236303729dc0b4e6b8c67e35b829c9d0d77220c", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "cited priors are real supply-chain intrusion stories (TrueConf trojanized installers, N-able N-central) - topically grounded but naming no European financial institution, no coordinated multi-target attack, and no exfiltration; the specific claim is not deducible from them", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-29 and 2026-09-05, a new political scandal involving a US senator will be reported by two major wire services (e.g., Reuters, AP), with allegations of corruption or misuse of funds.", "domain": "political", "probability": 28, "resolution": "Two major wire services (e.g., Reuters, AP) report a new political scandal involving a US senator between 2026-08-29 and 2026-09-05, with allegations of corruption or misuse of funds.", "deadline": "2026-09-09", "citations": [ 92, 106 ], "failure_condition": "No new political scandal involving a US senator is reported by two major wire services between 2026-08-29 and 2026-09-05 with allegations of corruption or misuse of funds.", "id": "KKR-20260808-06", "date_issued": "2026-08-08", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-08_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-08_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-08T15:19:28.684865+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c0aef8b006e3dcaf35f73db8ffe303fcbcd88bf0a2bc697377fa792042cfdf82", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "no substantive vocabulary shared with any cited prior; keyed per the ungrounded-priors rule", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-10" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-09 and 2026-08-22 at least one Russian missile or drone strike causing damage or casualties in Kyiv city or Kyiv oblast is reported by at least two of BBC, Reuters, AP, AFP.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 90, "resolution": "By the deadline, published reporting from at least two of BBC, Reuters, AP, AFP documents such a strike with impact dated inside the window; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-08-26", "citations": [ 73 ], "failure_condition": "No Russian strike causing damage or casualties occurs in Kyiv city or Kyiv oblast during the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-08_1517.md", "id": "KKR-20260808-07", "date_issued": "2026-08-08", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-08_1517.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] AP (via The Washington Times, Aug 20, 2026) reported a Russian missile and drone barrage on Kyiv and Kyiv region killing at least 16 with heavily damaged residential buildings; Reuters photographers and reporting carried by Al Jazeera (Aug 16, 2026) documented the Aug 16 missile strike on a Kyiv book market, and AP (via NPR/PBS, Aug 16, 2026) reported six wounded in that attack; CNN and RFE/RL (Aug 5, 2026) reported the Aug 5 attack on Kyiv Oblast killing 17.", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-08T21:41:14.525729+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1316de532c8f5e35094855b80cb02463d23ca6313b4552b3f856a82b48138741", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [73] carry the claim's operative terms (kyiv, missile, russian); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": null }, "evidence": "AP (via The Washington Times, Aug 20, 2026) reported a Russian missile and drone barrage on Kyiv and Kyiv region killing at least 16 with heavily damaged residential buildings; Reuters photographers and reporting carried by Al Jazeera (Aug 16, 2026) documented the Aug 16 missile strike on a Kyiv book market, and AP (via NPR/PBS, Aug 16, 2026) reported six wounded in that attack; CNN and RFE/RL (Aug 5, 2026) reported the Aug 5 attack on Kyiv Oblast killing 17." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-09 and 2026-10-09 the US Department of Justice announces the extradition of at least one defendant from Colombia to the United States on drug trafficking charges.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 85, "resolution": "A justice.gov press release dated inside the window announces at least one extradition from Colombia on drug trafficking charges; absent such a release, false.", "deadline": "2026-10-14", "citations": [ 110, 113 ], "failure_condition": "No extradition from Colombia on drug charges is completed and announced by the Department of Justice within the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-08_1517.md", "id": "KKR-20260808-08", "date_issued": "2026-08-08", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-08_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-08T21:41:14.525750+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7e5502b51cfca97e560b6e9b950642887d986291d27866f3ce3dffada4d47580", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [110, 113] carry the claim's operative terms (colombia); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-08 and 2026-08-15 the circulation center of Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on mainland China.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 65, "resolution": "GDACS tropical cyclone records, JMA, or CMA tracking show the center of Dolphin crossing the mainland China coastline inside the window; dissipation over water or landfall elsewhere resolves false.", "deadline": "2026-08-18", "citations": [ 25 ], "failure_condition": "Dolphin dissipates over water or its center first strikes territory other than mainland China during the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-08_1517.md", "id": "KKR-20260808-09", "date_issued": "2026-08-08", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-08_1517.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] Al Jazeera, carrying AFP, AP and Reuters (Aug 9 and Aug 10, 2026), reported that China meteorological authorities recorded Typhoon Dolphin making landfall near Yuhuan, Taizhou, Zhejiang province at about 5:30pm local time on Sunday Aug 9, 2026 with 151 km/h winds; Reuters via NBC News (Aug 11, 2026) reported it then moved inland to Hubei.", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-08T21:41:14.525762+00:00", "seal_sha256": "db59ea95f9b4c61f4eb1cf850c1af21051702ab01075667e72caee7100dc3ab3", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [25] carry the claim's operative terms (china, dolphin, typhoon); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Al Jazeera, carrying AFP, AP and Reuters (Aug 9 and Aug 10, 2026), reported that China meteorological authorities recorded Typhoon Dolphin making landfall near Yuhuan, Taizhou, Zhejiang province at about 5:30pm local time on Sunday Aug 9, 2026 with 151 km/h winds; Reuters via NBC News (Aug 11, 2026) reported it then moved inland to Hubei." } }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry naming Metabase as vendor or product with a date-added value between 2026-08-09 and 2026-10-09.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 55, "resolution": "The public CISA KEV catalog contains an entry whose vendor or product field names Metabase with a dateAdded value inside the window; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 16, 19 ], "failure_condition": "No Metabase entry with a dateAdded value inside the window appears in the CISA KEV catalog.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-08_1517.md", "id": "KKR-20260808-10", "date_issued": "2026-08-08", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-08_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-08T21:41:14.525773+00:00", "seal_sha256": "34c717a14c03f156d45fa331de473f647d8370901b8596e60b58e0310d60de88", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [16, 19] carry the claim's operative terms (exploited, metabase); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "The incumbent governor of Rhode Island is defeated in a gubernatorial primary held between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 25, "resolution": "Rhode Island Department of State results show the sitting governor losing a September 2026 gubernatorial primary; if the incumbent wins, is unopposed, is not a candidate, or no primary occurs, false.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 96 ], "failure_condition": "The incumbent wins or faces no September 2026 primary contest, including by not seeking reelection.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-08_1517.md", "id": "KKR-20260808-11", "date_issued": "2026-08-08", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-08_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-08T21:41:14.525782+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8f31f25f119a5a9618d19fcbfaa65ea002f985bb766425126e5584fb9a98419b", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [96] carry the claim's operative terms (governor, island, rhode, sitting); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-09 and 2026-10-09 the United States and Iran announce an agreement or arrangement governing commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz.", "domain": "political", "probability": 25, "resolution": "An official statement dated inside the window on state.gov or whitehouse.gov announces a US-Iran agreement, arrangement, or understanding on Strait of Hormuz commercial transit; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 70 ], "failure_condition": "No US-Iran Hormuz transit arrangement is announced by official US government statement within the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-08_1517.md", "id": "KKR-20260808-12", "date_issued": "2026-08-08", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-08_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-08T21:41:14.525791+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9799639bae27533fb38633ee4913735578138ac6267b037568431b4b16bd37d3", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [70] carry the claim's operative terms (arrangement, hormuz, iran); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "Ukrainian authorities report at least one civilian killed by a Russian missile or drone strike in Kyiv city or Kyiv oblast between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-10.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 88, "resolution": "Kyiv city or oblast military administration reports a civilian killed in a strike dated between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-10, carried by two of Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC.", "deadline": "2026-09-14", "citations": [ 73 ], "failure_condition": "No civilian death from a Russian strike occurs in Kyiv city or Kyiv oblast within the stated window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-08_1517.md", "id": "KKR-20260808-13", "date_issued": "2026-08-08", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-08_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-08T21:41:15.695139+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e99ab3ae211e11179e650260012925046001f3815a548e195061806330eecca1", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [73] carry the claim's operative terms (killed, kyiv, missile, russian); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "A continuing appropriations act extending US federal funding past 2026-09-30 is enacted into law between 2026-08-09 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 82, "resolution": "Congress.gov shows a continuing appropriations measure with status Became Public Law, enactment date between 2026-08-09 and 2026-09-30, funding agencies beyond 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 101 ], "failure_condition": "No such measure carries Became Public Law status with an enactment date inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-08_1517.md", "id": "KKR-20260808-14", "date_issued": "2026-08-08", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-08_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-08T21:41:15.695158+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b551b20f0c246cf0d3ba73fc1e8e449c3c4943c878699ff4c157f574404e258b", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior grounds the federal funding deadline subject; enactment is stated nowhere. KEYED under the attribution doctrine (2026-08-04).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "CISA adds a Metabase vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a date-added value between 2026-08-09 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 55, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog JSON contains an entry naming Metabase in vendorProject or product with dateAdded between 2026-08-09 and 2026-10-15.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 16, 19 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV catalog holds no Metabase entry with a dateAdded value inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-08_1517.md", "id": "KKR-20260808-15", "date_issued": "2026-08-08", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-08_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-08T21:41:15.695169+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5a105a126bddc13609bbd9e3c51b1b703b1b4865efed7bef31d35912aa7fdc79", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [16, 19] carry the claim's operative terms (exploited, metabase); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "CISA adds at least 25 distinct CVE records to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with date-added values between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 48, "resolution": "Count of distinct cveID entries in the CISA KEV catalog with dateAdded between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30 inclusive is 25 or greater.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 18 ], "failure_condition": "That count is 24 or fewer.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-08_1517.md", "id": "KKR-20260808-16", "date_issued": "2026-08-08", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-08_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-08T21:41:15.695177+00:00", "seal_sha256": "88ee6b5cdb5b9e92cfac98cb0bf4eae97195e6d002771286961fa8f324064404", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior is a single KEV addition; the seven-week addition count (>=25) is stated in no cited record. Throughput claim — operator-claimed KEYLESS.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Iran publicly announces an agreed arrangement permitting international commercial transit of the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-08-11 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 38, "resolution": "The Iranian foreign ministry, IRGC, or presidency announces a Hormuz transit or reopening arrangement dated in the window, reported by two of Reuters, AP, AFP, Al Jazeera.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 70 ], "failure_condition": "No Iranian state announcement of a Hormuz transit arrangement occurs inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-08_1517.md", "id": "KKR-20260808-17", "date_issued": "2026-08-08", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-08_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-08T21:41:15.695184+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4b2134c0641194f75620f41a0af1ee69729c40f089c5b13d8286c93024febc36", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [70] carry the claim's operative terms (arrangement, hormuz, iran, iranian); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "Russia strikes Kyiv with a single wave using four or more distinct weapon types (missile, drone, glide bomb, cruise, ballistic, etc), corroborated by both Ukrainian and Russian-aligned sources, between 2026-08-11 and 2026-08-24.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 62, "resolution": "TRUE if Kyiv is struck by four or more distinct weapon types in one wave between 2026-08-11 and 2026-08-24, reported by both Ukrainian and Russian-aligned sources, adjudicated by 2026-08-26.", "deadline": "2026-08-26", "citations": [ 73 ], "failure_condition": "No Kyiv strike wave in the window is corroborated by both Ukrainian and Russian-aligned sources as using four or more distinct weapon types.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-08_1517.md", "id": "KKR-20260808-18", "date_issued": "2026-08-08", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-08_1517.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "Clerk: UA Air Force listed ballistic, cruise and hypersonic missiles plus 168 drones in the 19-20 Aug package; Russian MoD confirmed the attack but does not enumerate types.", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-08T21:41:16.440652+00:00", "seal_sha256": "98fc019d085fd6ffb0b9a6bf0f04c893a16d7ca456336c3d89e44a3c70eda29a", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [73] carry the claim's operative terms (kyiv, missile, russia, russian-aligned); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": null }, "evidence": "For the night of Aug 19-20, the Ukrainian Air Force (relayed by ISW/Critical Threats Aug 20, 2026) reported a single strike package on Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast comprising ballistic and quasi-ballistic missiles, ground- and air-launched cruise missiles, ship-launched cruise missiles, Banderol loitering munitions and Shahed-type strike drones, while the Russian Defense Ministry (TASS and Sputnik via GlobalSecurity, Aug 20, 2026) described the same overnight massive strike on Kyiv and the Kyiv region as using precision land-, air- and sea-launched weapons plus long-range UAVs; AP (via The Washington " } }, { "statement": "A NATO member state reports intercepting or shooting down a Russian-attributed drone inside its own territory, between 2026-08-11 and 2026-08-24.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 36, "resolution": "TRUE if a NATO government or NATO itself publicly confirms intercepting or downing a Russian-attributed drone within a member state territory between 2026-08-11 and 2026-08-24, confirmed by 2026-08-26.", "deadline": "2026-08-26", "citations": [ 76 ], "failure_condition": "No NATO member government or NATO confirms intercepting or downing a Russian-attributed drone within its territory during the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-08_1517.md", "id": "KKR-20260808-19", "date_issued": "2026-08-08", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-08_1517.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "Clerk: Romania did not name Russia; the Russian attribution is NATO's preliminary assessment via Reuters (spokesman O'Donnell).", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-08T21:41:16.440670+00:00", "seal_sha256": "38cfe55f4c598ce745cc61e56629e3681aa9251b4b0040038ee50abb4b14f006", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [76] carry the claim's operative terms (drone, russian-attributed); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": null }, "evidence": "Al Jazeera with AFP and Reuters (Aug 16, 2026) reported that the Romanian Ministry of National Defence announced on Sunday Aug 16 that a Spanish F-18 on a NATO air-policing mission shot down a drone that had breached Romanian airspace from the direction of Moldova, with NATO military headquarters spokesman Martin ODonnell (surname spelled with an apostrophe in the original) saying the drone appears to be Russian and Romanian Defence Minister Radu Miruta hailing the mission; ISW/Critical Threats (Aug 20, 2026) also records a Romanian F-16 destroying a naval drone near the Neptune Deep platform " } }, { "statement": "Iran imposes a closure or blockade on commercial shipping transit through the Strait of Hormuz at any point between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-08.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 12, "resolution": "TRUE if Iran announces or enforces a closure, blockade, or de facto halt of transit through the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-08, confirmed by two or more wire services by 2026-09-10.", "deadline": "2026-09-10", "citations": [ 70, 74 ], "failure_condition": "Commercial shipping transit through the Strait of Hormuz continues without an Iranian-imposed closure or blockade throughout the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-08_1517.md", "id": "KKR-20260808-20", "date_issued": "2026-08-08", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-08_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-08T21:41:16.440680+00:00", "seal_sha256": "510d71d1cfbe82809579e61ec59aef6842667dd4d61f09a84d67192dffb694d1", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [70, 74] carry the claim's operative terms (hormuz, iran, shipping); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "A CVE for the Metabase authentication-bypass or SQL-injection vulnerability reported as actively exploited on 2026-08-07 and 2026-08-08 is added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog, with dateAdded between 2026-08-09 and 2026-08-23.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 74, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog lists a Metabase-related CVE with dateAdded between 2026-08-09 and 2026-08-23, checked by 2026-08-25.", "deadline": "2026-08-25", "citations": [ 16, 19 ], "failure_condition": "No Metabase-related CVE appears in the CISA KEV catalog with a dateAdded value in the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-08_1517.md", "id": "KKR-20260808-21", "date_issued": "2026-08-08", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-08_1517.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "Clerk: KEV mirror, CVE-2026-72898 dateAdded 2026-08-11.", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-08T21:41:16.440687+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f620c6790aad2638ec267049d95b5602afc234c99a9388e31263e91e8debc03a", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [16, 19] carry the claim's operative terms (authentication-bypas, exploited, metabase, metabase-related); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": null }, "evidence": "CISA added the Metabase SQL-injection vulnerability CVE-2026-72898 (CVSS 10.0, password-reset endpoint) to the KEV catalog on Aug 11, 2026 with an Aug 14 federal deadline, as reported by The Hacker News (Aug 2026), runZero (Aug 2026), GBHackers (Aug 2026) and TechTimes (Aug 12, 2026); Metabase had disclosed the zero-day attack on its Cloud service on Aug 6 and published fixes on Aug 10." } }, { "statement": "CISA updates the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog entry for CVE-2026-8037, the Progress LoadMaster command-injection vulnerability, so that knownRansomwareCampaignUse equals Known, at any point between 2026-08-09 and 2026-09-06.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 14, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV entry for CVE-2026-8037 shows knownRansomwareCampaignUse equal to Known at any check between 2026-08-09 and 2026-09-06, verified by 2026-09-08.", "deadline": "2026-09-08", "citations": [ 18 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV entry for CVE-2026-8037 still shows knownRansomwareCampaignUse as Unknown at the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-08_1517.md", "id": "KKR-20260808-22", "date_issued": "2026-08-08", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-08_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-08T21:41:16.440695+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e4f15c0e5c7733a29b58d9c7cc71b8f2e53f1900fd5e837a9734413f7e26e4f0", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [18] carry the claim's operative terms (loadmaster, progres); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "The sitting Governor of Rhode Island leaves office, through resignation, recall, impeachment conviction, or removal, at any point between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-08.", "domain": "political", "probability": 18, "resolution": "TRUE if the individual holding the Rhode Island governorship on 2026-08-08 is no longer Governor of Rhode Island at any point between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-08, confirmed by 2026-09-10.", "deadline": "2026-09-10", "citations": [ 96 ], "failure_condition": "The Governor of Rhode Island in office on 2026-08-08 remains Governor throughout the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-08_1517.md", "id": "KKR-20260808-23", "date_issued": "2026-08-08", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-08_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-08T21:41:16.440703+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0924d9f2a50e2cf7bb58df97516db810035d4051b8df3bf874408874026a56c3", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [96] carry the claim's operative terms (governor, governorship, island, rhode, sitting); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on the coast of mainland China at any point between 2026-08-09 and 2026-08-16.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 52, "resolution": "TRUE if the China Meteorological Administration or the Joint Typhoon Warning Center records a mainland China landfall for Typhoon Dolphin between 2026-08-09 and 2026-08-16, confirmed by 2026-08-18.", "deadline": "2026-08-18", "citations": [ 25 ], "failure_condition": "Typhoon Dolphin dissipates, recurves, or otherwise fails to make landfall on mainland China during the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-08_1517.md", "id": "KKR-20260808-24", "date_issued": "2026-08-08", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-08_1517.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] China meteorological authorities recorded Typhoon Dolphin landfall near Yuhuan, Zhejiang at about 5:30pm on Aug 9, 2026, as reported by Al Jazeera via AFP/AP/Reuters (Aug 9 and 10, 2026) and Reuters via NBC News (Aug 11, 2026); the landfall falls inside the Aug 9-16 window and was confirmed well before Aug 18.", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-08T21:41:16.440710+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5a9bf7150d7f3becac183d06c65a1b3f99794bf960146d8b6209809a2ee96b24", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [25] carry the claim's operative terms (china, dolphin, typhoon); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-08", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "China meteorological authorities recorded Typhoon Dolphin landfall near Yuhuan, Zhejiang at about 5:30pm on Aug 9, 2026, as reported by Al Jazeera via AFP/AP/Reuters (Aug 9 and 10, 2026) and Reuters via NBC News (Aug 11, 2026); the landfall falls inside the Aug 9-16 window and was confirmed well before Aug 18." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-25, a cyberattack exploiting a vulnerability in a critical infrastructure system is reported by at least two wire services with independent verification, and the CISA KEV catalog includes the vulnerability with a date-added value in that window.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-25, and the attack is reported by at least two wire services with independent verification.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 8, 12 ], "failure_condition": "No vulnerability is added to the CISA KEV catalog between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-25, or no cyberattack is reported by two wire services with independent verification.", "id": "KKR-20260809-01", "date_issued": "2026-08-09", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-09_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-09_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Documented August KEV additions carry dateAdded values of 08-05 (TeamCity), 08-11 (Cisco), 08-17 (Ray), and 08-18 (four-CVE batch); none falls in 08-22 to 08-25, so the KEV leg of the conjunction fails.", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-09T15:18:11.690003+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ce5e4ea99d9d02761cc5e2e8e42504bab88874f43b5bb7f6fe9f595df7d519ba", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "cited items are a Gaza famine report and a MarketWatch consumer story - priors supply nothing about cyberattacks, critical infrastructure, or CISA KEV; keyed per the ungrounded-priors rule", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Documented August KEV additions carry dateAdded values of 08-05 (TeamCity), 08-11 (Cisco), 08-17 (Ray), and 08-18 (four-CVE batch); none falls in 08-22 to 08-25, so the KEV leg of the conjunction fails." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-27 and 2026-08-30, a new cyberattack targeting a U.S. government system is reported by two wire services with independent verification, and the CISA KEV catalog includes the vulnerability with a date-added value in that window.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 32, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-08-27 and 2026-08-30, and the attack is reported by two wire services with independent verification.", "deadline": "2026-09-02", "citations": [ 8, 12 ], "failure_condition": "No vulnerability is added to the CISA KEV catalog between 2026-08-27 and 2026-08-30, or no cyberattack is reported by two wire services with independent verification.", "id": "KKR-20260809-02", "date_issued": "2026-08-09", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-09_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-09_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-09T15:18:11.690026+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e0b6673813273044b412c0c3020ae0d5320d2ef04c1984d62b62819a77138405", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "cited items are the same Gaza famine report and MarketWatch consumer story - priors supply nothing about cyberattacks, US government systems, or CISA KEV; keyed per the ungrounded-priors rule", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "At least one Russian missile or drone strike on Odesa city or oblast occurs between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-24.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 90, "resolution": "At least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC, Al Jazeera report, citing Ukrainian officials, a Russian strike on Odesa city or oblast occurring between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-27", "citations": [ 67 ], "failure_condition": "No Russian missile or drone strike on Odesa city or oblast occurs between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-24.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-09_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260809-03", "date_issued": "2026-08-09", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-09_1516.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] ISW/Critical Threats 08-21, citing Ukrainian officials including the State Border Service, reported Russian strikes on Odesa Oblast targets including the Tabaky border crossing on consecutive nights 08-20 and 08-21, inside the 08-10 to 08-24 window.", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-09T20:08:08.396202+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3c04e93e809502ddf1ac397fb397050f27046acb52dd98eee6ad9a8dd4595a32", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [67] carry the claim's operative terms (russian, ukrainian); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "ISW/Critical Threats 08-21, citing Ukrainian officials including the State Border Service, reported Russian strikes on Odesa Oblast targets including the Tabaky border crossing on consecutive nights 08-20 and 08-21, inside the 08-10 to 08-24 window." } }, { "statement": "An attack on or seizure of a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman, attributed to Iran or Iran-aligned forces, occurs between 2026-08-10 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 35, "resolution": "At least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC report an in-window attack on or seizure of a commercial vessel in those waters, attributing it to Iran or Iran-aligned forces.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 28, 61, 86 ], "failure_condition": "No commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman is attacked or seized by Iran or Iran-aligned forces within the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-09_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260809-04", "date_issued": "2026-08-09", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-09_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-09T20:08:08.396222+00:00", "seal_sha256": "96d61a4bf825d53a7a4524d206b123a009d4c538fd08be28f1ec6c20cb1eaf47", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [28, 61] carry the claim's operative terms (attack, hormuz, strait); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "The USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake worldwide with origin time between 2026-08-10 and 2026-10-08.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 92, "resolution": "The USGS catalog at earthquake.usgs.gov, queried on the deadline, lists at least one event of magnitude 7.0 or greater with origin time inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-12", "citations": [ 15, 17 ], "failure_condition": "No earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or greater with origin time in the window enters the USGS catalog.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-09_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260809-05", "date_issued": "2026-08-09", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-09_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-09T20:08:08.396233+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9a49394915d557a52b4447ce766dac96794bb018f398c0d87e2245857de11d5f", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited priors are an M5.6 and an M6.3; a worldwide M7.0+ inside the window is stated in no cited record. Climatological claim — operator-claimed KEYLESS.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on the coast of mainland China or Hainan, excluding Taiwan, between 2026-08-09 and 2026-08-16.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 65, "resolution": "CMA or JMA bulletins, or at least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, report the storm center making landfall on mainland China or Hainan, excluding Taiwan, within the window.", "deadline": "2026-08-19", "citations": [ 31 ], "failure_condition": "The storm center makes no in-window landfall on mainland China or Hainan.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-09_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260809-06", "date_issued": "2026-08-09", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-09_1516.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] Al Jazeera published a combined AFP, AP and Reuters report (Aug 9, 2026, updated Aug 10) that Typhoon Dolphin made landfall near Yuhuan in Zhejiang province at about 5:30pm on Aug 9 per China meteorological authorities, satisfying the two-of-three wire requirement; Reuters (via NBC News, Aug 11, 2026) separately reported the weekend landfall and inland track.", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-09T20:08:08.396242+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e255b8fa2a65194a5af936c953f31d124856642edb5f5b25da655898dbde09b3", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [31] carry the claim's operative terms (china, dolphin, typhoon); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Al Jazeera published a combined AFP, AP and Reuters report (Aug 9, 2026, updated Aug 10) that Typhoon Dolphin made landfall near Yuhuan in Zhejiang province at about 5:30pm on Aug 9 per China meteorological authorities, satisfying the two-of-three wire requirement; Reuters (via NBC News, Aug 11, 2026) separately reported the weekend landfall and inland track." } }, { "statement": "Iran and Oman publicly announce a concluded arrangement governing commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, announced between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-20.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 25, "resolution": "An Iranian government or IRGC source and an Omani government source both describe a concluded transit arrangement, carried by Reuters plus one of AP, AFP, or Oman News Agency.", "deadline": "2026-09-24", "citations": [ 28, 61 ], "failure_condition": "No concluded Iran-Oman arrangement governing Strait of Hormuz transit is announced by either government inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-09_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260809-07", "date_issued": "2026-08-09", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-09_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-09T20:08:09.105466+00:00", "seal_sha256": "08ef3964e9b545101dc0ed294aea98bd7c956648c1a2cc23ac535b0dfa4a9386", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [28] carry the claim's operative terms (hormuz, strait); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "A Houthi-claimed attack strikes a Saudi Aramco facility between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-07, and a Saudi official body confirms an impact at that facility.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 60, "resolution": "Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree claims a strike naming an Aramco site, and the Saudi Energy Ministry or Aramco confirms fire, damage, or interception there.", "deadline": "2026-09-11", "citations": [ 46, 61, 73 ], "failure_condition": "No Houthi-claimed strike on a named Aramco facility in the window draws a Saudi Energy Ministry or Aramco confirmation of impact.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-09_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260809-08", "date_issued": "2026-08-09", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-09_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-09T20:08:09.105485+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f36d8f8ff960cc4b215511ff834dad98e39d1f7e7ba502cba76f8cee43f9cbd0", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [46, 61, 73] carry the claim's operative terms (aramco, attack, claim, facility, fire, houthi); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "Francesca Hong wins the Democratic nomination for governor of Wisconsin in the scheduled partisan primary held 2026-08-11.", "domain": "political", "probability": 82, "resolution": "Wisconsin Elections Commission canvass returns, or an Associated Press race call, show Hong with the most votes in the Democratic gubernatorial primary.", "deadline": "2026-08-17", "citations": [ 79 ], "failure_condition": "A candidate other than Hong leads the Democratic gubernatorial primary vote in the canvass returns or the AP call.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-09_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260809-09", "date_issued": "2026-08-09", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-09_1516.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] PBS News/AP (Aug 12, 2026) reported the Associated Press declared Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley the winner of the Aug 11 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary after Francesca Hong conceded; NBC News (Aug 12, 2026) had Crowley at 39.8 percent to Hong at 39.4 percent with 98 percent of the expected vote, and Al Jazeera (Aug 12, 2026) reported the same outcome.", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-09T20:08:09.105494+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c71e4efd3e470c48e2ca877eef037da5f7c881fca11f65b2bfbd8596b6e09f51", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [79] carry the claim's operative terms (democratic, election, governor, primary, wisconsin); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "PBS News/AP (Aug 12, 2026) reported the Associated Press declared Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley the winner of the Aug 11 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary after Francesca Hong conceded; NBC News (Aug 12, 2026) had Crowley at 39.8 percent to Hong at 39.4 percent with 98 percent of the expected vote, and Al Jazeera (Aug 12, 2026) reported the same outcome." } }, { "statement": "The Israeli government publicly accepts the Board of Peace 15-point Gaza document between 2026-08-11 and 2026-10-09.", "domain": "political", "probability": 12, "resolution": "Netanyahu, the Office of the Prime Minister, or a security cabinet decision states that Israel accepts the 15-point document, reported by Reuters and the Times of Israel.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 59, 78, 86 ], "failure_condition": "The Israeli government issues no statement or cabinet decision accepting the 15-point document inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-09_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260809-10", "date_issued": "2026-08-09", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-09_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-09T20:08:09.105502+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8a14864071ae7bf5602d1591ecc21fbc32d8ae9cf129181b49b728863d0d338b", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [59, 78, 86] carry the claim's operative terms (board, gaza, israel, israeli, netanyahu, peace); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "Trial proceedings in the New York state prosecution of Luigi Mangione commence in open court between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-25.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 75, "resolution": "The New York County Supreme Court docket or courtroom reporting records jury selection or opening statements in the state case beginning inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 10 ], "failure_condition": "Neither jury selection nor opening statements in the state case begin on or before 2026-09-25.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-09_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260809-11", "date_issued": "2026-08-09", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-09_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-09T20:08:09.105510+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0647a7d9bb75b4c51e7c8df81cfc71d1053f65d55709175127d276f16de6ce69", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [10] carry the claim's operative terms (luigi); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "The USGS catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater worldwide with origin time between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 48, "resolution": "A USGS FDSN event query bounded to the window returns at least one event with preferred magnitude 7.5 or greater.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 15, 17, 29 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS catalog contains no event of preferred magnitude 7.5 or greater with origin time inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-09_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260809-12", "date_issued": "2026-08-09", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-09_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-09T20:08:09.105518+00:00", "seal_sha256": "319229b25c287939df5d805c4244ca555fbb9dc319020d5cc31748c3f03b882a", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [29] carry the claim's operative terms (earthquake, magnitude); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "On 2026-08-11, the South Carolina Republican special primary for U.S. Senate fails to produce a majority winner among the nine-candidate field, triggering a runoff.", "domain": "political", "probability": 80, "resolution": "South Carolina State Election Commission certified results or an AP call confirms the vote share of the leading candidate was below 50 percent, requiring a runoff.", "deadline": "2026-08-18", "citations": [ 80 ], "failure_condition": "Certified or AP-called results show one candidate winning an outright majority on 2026-08-11, so no runoff is required.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-09_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260809-13", "date_issued": "2026-08-09", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-09_1516.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] PBS News/AP (Aug 24-25, 2026) reported that Sen. Darline Graham placed first in the Aug 11 special Republican primary but fell short of the vote majority needed to avoid a runoff, sending her and Rep. Ralph Norman to an Aug 25 runoff; NPR (Aug 25, 2026) reported neither Graham nor Norman won enough votes two weeks earlier to avoid the runoff, and NBC News/AP results pages list the Aug 25 special runoff.", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-09T20:08:11.176432+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8986ac5395134bb4b593d1b171e2236b00025487ac24a4260c3929be4426c91e", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [80] carry the claim's operative terms (carolina, senate, south); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "PBS News/AP (Aug 24-25, 2026) reported that Sen. Darline Graham placed first in the Aug 11 special Republican primary but fell short of the vote majority needed to avoid a runoff, sending her and Rep. Ralph Norman to an Aug 25 runoff; NPR (Aug 25, 2026) reported neither Graham nor Norman won enough votes two weeks earlier to avoid the runoff, and NBC News/AP results pages list the Aug 25 special runoff." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-16 and 2026-09-15, the Yemen-based Houthi movement claims responsibility for a new attack on Saudi Arabian oil, gas, or energy infrastructure, separate from the 2026-08-09 Aramco refinery incident.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "At least two independent outlets (e.g. Reuters, AP, Al Jazeera) report a Houthi-claimed attack on Saudi energy infrastructure occurring between 2026-08-16 and 2026-09-15.", "deadline": "2026-09-17", "citations": [ 46, 61, 68, 73 ], "failure_condition": "No new Houthi-claimed attack on Saudi energy infrastructure is reported during the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-09_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260809-14", "date_issued": "2026-08-09", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-09_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-09T20:08:11.176453+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d42200e33dfbf0b53ab6318c2614bae60b4a77dcda2a4531aaec0e4479978bf3", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [46, 61, 68, 73] carry the claim's operative terms (aramco, attack, claim, houthi, houthi-claimed, refinery); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-16 and 2026-09-15, at least one additional Russian missile, drone, or artillery strike on Odesa oblast, Ukraine is reported and corroborated by sources on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 92, "resolution": "At least two independently-biased public sources, one Russian-aligned and one Ukrainian-aligned, or two independent wire services, report a strike on Odesa oblast within the window.", "deadline": "2026-09-17", "citations": [ 67 ], "failure_condition": "No cross-corroborated report of a Russian strike on Odesa oblast appears during the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-09_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260809-15", "date_issued": "2026-08-09", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-09_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-09T20:08:11.176465+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c6cf0da8860e0ae4e9726df246d388c2c6f28f59fbd1ee31592a7ddf953bfe5c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [67] carry the claim's operative terms (russian, russian-aligned, ukraine, ukrainian, ukrainian-aligned); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-09 and 2026-08-20, an Irish court grants Daniel Kinahan bail pending trial, rather than remanding him in custody at every hearing.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 7, "resolution": "Irish Times, RTE, or Irish Examiner reporting confirms a court granted Kinahan bail at any hearing occurring in the window.", "deadline": "2026-08-22", "citations": [ 88 ], "failure_condition": "Kinahan is remanded in custody at every hearing in the window, or no bail application succeeds.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-09_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260809-16", "date_issued": "2026-08-09", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-09_1516.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] RTE (Aug 9, 2026), The Irish Times (Aug 9, 2026) and the Irish Examiner (Aug 10, 2026) reported that Daniel Kinahan was charged at the Special Criminal Court on Aug 9 with directing a criminal organisation and remanded in custody to Portlaoise Prison until his next appearance on Oct 5, with the judge noting any bail application would have to go to the High Court and Kinahan himself saying he would not be getting bail; no report of a High Court bail application or grant between Aug 9 and Aug 20 was found.", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-09T20:08:11.176473+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2a0d19d4a8f905b21585ce52b404284bfa439744ff4596deefc69053f243199b", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [88] carry the claim's operative terms (daniel, kinahan); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "RTE (Aug 9, 2026), The Irish Times (Aug 9, 2026) and the Irish Examiner (Aug 10, 2026) reported that Daniel Kinahan was charged at the Special Criminal Court on Aug 9 with directing a criminal organisation and remanded in custody to Portlaoise Prison until his next appearance on Oct 5, with the judge noting any bail application would have to go to the High Court and Kinahan himself saying he would not be getting bail; no report of a High Court bail application or grant between Aug 9 and Aug 20 was found." } }, { "statement": "The Form 10-Q filed by Berkshire Hathaway for the quarter ended 2026-09-30 reports cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments below 365.5 billion dollars, continuing the Q2 decline.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 55, "resolution": "The Form 10-Q filed on SEC EDGAR by Berkshire Hathaway for the quarter ended 2026-09-30, filed between 2026-10-01 and 2026-11-10, shows cash and equivalents under 365.5 billion dollars.", "deadline": "2026-11-12", "citations": [ 43 ], "failure_condition": "The Q3 2026 10-Q reports cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments at or above 365.5 billion dollars.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-09_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260809-17", "date_issued": "2026-08-09", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-09_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@bbc954b0c3f9d48f", "sealed_at": "2026-08-09T20:08:11.176482+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f6eeb8d22aa970819764462d0d4a969b499d99ab64da2af4477f404da9ae4ffb", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [43] carry the claim's operative terms (berkshire, cash); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-09" }, { "statement": "A drone strike using a Shahed-type UAV will be reported in Kyiv, Ukraine, between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, resulting in at least one confirmed casualty.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24 and includes a report of a drone strike in Kyiv with at least one confirmed casualty, as verified by at least two independent outlets (BBC World, Al Jazeera) with no conflicting reports.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 1, 4 ], "failure_condition": "No report from BBC World or Al Jazeera confirms a drone strike in Kyiv with at least one confirmed casualty between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260810-01", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] The KEV catalog does not carry reports of drone strikes, so the criterion as written cannot resolve TRUE; separately, no KEV addition with dateAdded 08-21 to 08-24 is documented, and the mass-casualty Kyiv strikes fell on 08-20 and 08-28 to 08-30, outside the window.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T15:18:15.663844+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ab0c866630e1fa80bbd2e1c2cdc464a6788dd9e1c67cca124e1a6e7bc01d0825", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "prior [1] is a UKRAINIAN drone strike into Russia and [4] is Trump licensing revenue - neither grounds a Shahed strike ON Kyiv; keyed per the ungrounded-priors rule, and the proposer's vocabulary match was directionally wrong", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-10", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The KEV catalog does not carry reports of drone strikes, so the criterion as written cannot resolve TRUE; separately, no KEV addition with dateAdded 08-21 to 08-24 is documented, and the mass-casualty Kyiv strikes fell on 08-20 and 08-28 to 08-30, outside the window." } }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog will list the Critical Progress LoadMaster flaw as actively exploited between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 85, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24 and includes the Critical Progress LoadMaster flaw with a status of 'actively exploited'.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 21 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog does not list the Critical Progress LoadMaster flaw as actively exploited between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260810-02", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] BleepingComputer coverage of the Progress LoadMaster active-exploitation story dates to mid-July 2026, and no LoadMaster entry appears among the documented August KEV additions of 08-05, 08-11, 08-17, or 08-18.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T15:18:15.663865+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c8a7c0cafb08b694cb3990f80164165b7639c84c0b140f4a8db3d95eb47da5bc", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [21] carry the claim's operative terms (actively, critical, exploited, flaw, loadmaster, progres); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-10", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "BleepingComputer coverage of the Progress LoadMaster active-exploitation story dates to mid-July 2026, and no LoadMaster entry appears among the documented August KEV additions of 08-05, 08-11, 08-17, or 08-18." } }, { "statement": "A 7.4 magnitude earthquake will be confirmed by the USGS in Colombia between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, with at least 50 fatalities reported in official sources.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The USGS Significant Quakes feed records a magnitude 7.4 earthquake in Colombia with a date between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, and at least two independent sources (Al Jazeera, Guardian World) report 50 or more fatalities.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 25, 26 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS does not record a magnitude 7.4 earthquake in Colombia between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, or no independent source reports 50 or more fatalities.", "id": "KKR-20260810-03", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] No magnitude 7.4 Colombia earthquake occurred 08-21 to 08-24; an event of that size with 50 or more deaths would have dominated world news, and nothing appears in any coverage or quake summaries for the period.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T15:18:15.663875+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d9b0b27436ca99f5f753861560fc5d73281ea8381bdd7e809d1991ec5557f615", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [25, 26] carry the claim's operative terms (colombia, earthquake, magnitude, quake, significant); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-10", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "No magnitude 7.4 Colombia earthquake occurred 08-21 to 08-24; an event of that size with 50 or more deaths would have dominated world news, and nothing appears in any coverage or quake summaries for the period." } }, { "statement": "A cyberattack exploiting the SonicWall SMA1000 flaw will be reported by BleepingComputer between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 70, "resolution": "BleepingComputer publishes a report between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24 confirming a cyberattack exploiting the SonicWall SMA1000 flaw, with at least one affected organization named.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 13 ], "failure_condition": "BleepingComputer does not publish a report between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24 confirming a cyberattack exploiting the SonicWall SMA1000 flaw.", "id": "KKR-20260810-04", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] BleepingComputer covered SMA1000 exploitation on 07-15 and 07-20 and the ransomware-gang KEV update around 08-08 to 08-11; The Hacker News covered INC Ransomware exploitation about 08-03. No BleepingComputer report dated 08-21 to 08-24 naming an affected organization was found.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T15:18:15.663884+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1365654f6607b0c0d26ae2f6481af65ee1172d6e92ec02f30502484952e6b3fd", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [13] carry the claim's operative terms (exploiting, flaw, sonicwall); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-10", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "BleepingComputer covered SMA1000 exploitation on 07-15 and 07-20 and the ransomware-gang KEV update around 08-08 to 08-11; The Hacker News covered INC Ransomware exploitation about 08-03. No BleepingComputer report dated 08-21 to 08-24 naming an affected organization was found." } }, { "statement": "The USGS will record a magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake in the United States between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 15, "resolution": "The USGS Significant Quakes feed records a magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake in the United States with a date between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 25 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS does not record a magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake in the United States between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260810-05", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "no US M6.0 in window; a US M6 is never unreported, absence is safe", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T15:18:15.663892+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e15700810ed0548e740ea46f776fd8ea5d536b00ca22e607130cf0c10ab58a43", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "sole prior [25] is the Colombia M7.4; the matched terms are the words in the feed name USGS Significant Quakes, not the subject - a Colombia quake grounds nothing about US seismicity, keyed per the ungrounded-priors rule", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-10", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "operator", "verdicts": { "claude": "AMBIGUOUS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "No US magnitude 6.0 or greater event during 08-21 to 08-24 appears in press coverage reviewed." } }, { "statement": "A major offensive operation will be reported in the Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, with at least one side reporting a territorial gain.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 35, "resolution": "At least two independent outlets (BBC World, Al Jazeera) report a major offensive operation in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, with at least one side claiming a territorial gain.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 3, 4 ], "failure_condition": "No independent report from BBC World or Al Jazeera confirms a major offensive operation in Zaporizhzhia with a claimed territorial gain between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260810-06", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] ISW/Critical Threats 08-21 documents Russian strike waves on Zaporizhzhia Oblast infrastructure but no major offensive operation; no BBC or AJ report of a Zaporizhzhia offensive with territorial-gain claims during 08-21 to 08-24 was found.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T15:18:15.663902+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3c38eb3bfb16ad71611b3a3b50748ba4934e673bcf273c2df93d037789494ef3", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "cited priors are [3] the Colombia earthquake and [4] Trump licensing revenue - nothing about Zaporizhzhia or any offensive; keyed per the ungrounded-priors rule", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-10", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "ISW/Critical Threats 08-21 documents Russian strike waves on Zaporizhzhia Oblast infrastructure but no major offensive operation; no BBC or AJ report of a Zaporizhzhia offensive with territorial-gain claims during 08-21 to 08-24 was found." } }, { "statement": "The Federal Register will publish a new rule on food ingredient oversight by the HHS between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "domain": "political", "probability": 20, "resolution": "The Federal Register carries a document published between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24 that announces a new rule on food ingredient oversight by the HHS, as verified by a public search.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 50 ], "failure_condition": "The Federal Register does not publish a new rule on food ingredient oversight by the HHS between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260810-07", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] The HHS/FDA GRAS proposed rule on food-ingredient oversight was published in the Federal Register on 2026-08-11 (document 2026-16296), ten days before the window; no HHS food-ingredient rule published 08-21 to 08-24 was found.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T15:18:15.663909+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b342b3f0e88524cc7dff55544d8f01db6464cffd0e2464a1f0b963d69979e4bf", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [50] carry the claim's operative terms (food, ingredient, oversight); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-10", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The HHS/FDA GRAS proposed rule on food-ingredient oversight was published in the Federal Register on 2026-08-11 (document 2026-16296), ten days before the window; no HHS food-ingredient rule published 08-21 to 08-24 was found." } }, { "statement": "A new cyberattack using AI-generated phishing content will be confirmed by The Hacker News between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 45, "resolution": "The Hacker News publishes a report between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24 confirming a cyberattack involving AI-generated phishing content, with at least one organization named as affected.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 15 ], "failure_condition": "The Hacker News does not publish a report between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24 confirming a cyberattack involving AI-generated phishing content.", "id": "KKR-20260810-08", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[AMBIGUOUS] the DeepSeek campaign reporting predates the window; nothing two-source inside it", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T15:18:15.663917+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1bc1640616c0ea8d10c398b2fe4fb4ebd080b1d48ecf269bf59c30969b1a4f47", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "no substantive vocabulary shared with any cited prior; keyed per the ungrounded-priors rule", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-10", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "operator", "verdicts": { "claude": "AMBIGUOUS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The Hacker News reported an AI-enabled autonomous hacking campaign using DeepSeek (per Unit 42) around 08-18, before the window; no THN item dated 08-21 to 08-24 confirming an AI-generated phishing attack with a named affected organization was located." } }, { "statement": "Trump's foreign licensing business revenue will exceed $60 million in the third quarter of 2026, as reported by CNBC.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 28, "resolution": "CNBC publishes a report between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24 confirming that Trump's foreign licensing business revenue exceeded $60 million in Q3 2026.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 49 ], "failure_condition": "CNBC does not publish a report between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24 confirming that Trump's foreign licensing business revenue exceeded $60 million in Q3 2026.", "id": "KKR-20260810-09", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] No CNBC report dated 08-21 to 08-24 confirms third-quarter 2026 foreign licensing revenue figures; the quarter had not ended.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T15:18:15.663925+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ba8d6830c9a45fd5204c276eb126aa49bbe30ea7e5a09ea05c7bcf72fa6b5471", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [49] carry the claim's operative terms (busines, foreign, licensing, million, trump'); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-10", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "No CNBC report dated 08-21 to 08-24 confirms third-quarter 2026 foreign licensing revenue figures; the quarter had not ended." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-11 and 2026-08-31, Ukrainian forces strike at least one oil refinery or oil processing facility on Russian territory, corroborated by at least two international news organizations.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 85, "resolution": "At least two international news organizations (e.g. Reuters, AFP, BBC) report a Ukrainian strike hitting a named Russian oil refinery or oil processing facility occurring between 2026-08-11 and 2026-08-31.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 74, 92, 104 ], "failure_condition": "No Ukrainian strike on any Russian oil refinery or oil processing facility between 2026-08-11 and 2026-08-31 is corroborated by two international news organizations.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260810-10", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T16:50:14.023506+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0ef4718f5597182fe44c5456845269c7f9d04f11f5b3ba1bf38b52460e333ad8", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [74, 92, 104] carry the claim's operative terms (refinery, russian, strike, ukrainian); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-10" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent crude front-month futures settle above 110.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-11.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 15, "resolution": "Official ICE Brent front-month daily settlement price exceeds 110.00 USD on any trading day between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-11, per ICE settlement records.", "deadline": "2026-09-15", "citations": [ 56, 64, 78 ], "failure_condition": "Every ICE Brent front-month daily settlement between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-11 is at or below 110.00 USD.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260810-11", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T16:50:14.023525+00:00", "seal_sha256": "903d35e62b65139b4d657806b9df074a75b1219dbc068582dda424d11f31f176", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Market-threshold claim with no reference level stated at seal; the keyed/keyless gap is unmeasurable and the entry defaults KEYED per 4.03/5.05 (market NOTE doctrine).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Intel prices or completes a common stock offering of at least 10 billion USD between 2026-08-11 and 2026-10-30, per filings on SEC EDGAR.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 85, "resolution": "SEC EDGAR shows an Intel Corporation prospectus supplement, 424B, or 8-K filed between 2026-08-11 and 2026-10-30 pricing or completing a common stock offering with gross proceeds of at least 10 billion USD.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 57 ], "failure_condition": "No Intel filing on SEC EDGAR in the window prices or completes a common stock offering of at least 10 billion USD.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260810-12", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T16:50:14.023535+00:00", "seal_sha256": "56ebc070519ec7ad4d9a0c90ce5513ffe8ed36fd06e6c26b53db437443d560a8", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [57] carry the claim's operative terms (billion, intel, offering, stock); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "A US House committee or subcommittee holds a hearing between 2026-09-01 and 2026-12-18 at which an OpenAI or Anthropic executive testifies about the reported AI company security breach.", "domain": "political", "probability": 40, "resolution": "Congress.gov or official House committee records list a hearing held between 2026-09-01 and 2026-12-18 with a witness from OpenAI or Anthropic addressing the breach.", "deadline": "2026-12-22", "citations": [ 108 ], "failure_condition": "No House hearing in the window features testimony from an OpenAI or Anthropic witness concerning the breach.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260810-13", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T16:50:14.023543+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6b91129655351f4df76610d56078ef2cd95f7dc2be1da079037c3b1e511bcb76", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [108] carry the claim's operative terms (company, house, testifie); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "USGS catalogs at least one M6.0 or greater earthquake with epicenter within 200 km of event us6000tjl2 and origin time between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-10 UTC.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The USGS earthquake catalog lists an event of magnitude 6.0 or higher, epicenter within 200 km of USGS event us6000tjl2, origin time between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-10 UTC.", "deadline": "2026-09-14", "citations": [ 25, 33 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS catalog shows no M6.0 or greater event within 200 km of us6000tjl2 with origin time in the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260810-14", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "manual/fable-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T16:50:14.023550+00:00", "seal_sha256": "80bb20d5fa2d217c4469625e7f883e176664f9022a05efb82b2114261d625ffa", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [33] carry the claim's operative terms (earthquake, magnitude); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry with vendorProject Progress Software carrying a dateAdded value between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 75, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog JSON contains at least one vulnerability record whose vendorProject field is Progress Software and whose dateAdded field falls between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 21, 13 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV record carries vendorProject Progress Software with a dateAdded inside that window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260810-15", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T16:50:15.204184+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3ff201d196c7c6786445138fe4b8432d0974d72954d5fa99d8162fd1ed559ad2", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [13, 21] carry the claim's operative terms (exploited, progres); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "LexisNexis Risk Solutions reports a data breach affecting 100000 or more individuals to the Maine Attorney General between 2026-08-11 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the Maine AG data breach notification database lists a filing by LexisNexis Risk Solutions or a LexisNexis entity, dated 2026-08-11 through 2026-12-31, with total affected of 100000 or more.", "deadline": "2027-01-08", "citations": [ 17 ], "failure_condition": "No such filing appears, or every LexisNexis filing in the window reports fewer than 100000 affected individuals.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260810-16", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T16:50:15.204203+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f9d41ab9ddcee980e1e8bcbb9c0ff6487b8a7d2232904c6962558a7e6304cba1", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior names the LexisNexis breach itself; the Maine AG filing milestone is not stated. KEYED under the attribution doctrine (2026-08-04).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "NYMEX front-month WTI crude settles at or below 72.00 dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-11 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 45, "resolution": "TRUE if CME official settlement data for the front-month NYMEX WTI light sweet crude contract shows a settlement price of 72.00 or lower on any trading day from 2026-08-11 through 2026-11-30.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 56, 64, 78 ], "failure_condition": "Every front-month WTI settlement in that window prints above 72.00 dollars per barrel.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260810-17", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T16:50:15.204213+00:00", "seal_sha256": "17f07cd05dc69142e98b2493ae99a162663003bc4d9bdc1ab13665b1e6455bbc", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Market-threshold claim with no reference level stated at seal; the keyed/keyless gap is unmeasurable and the entry defaults KEYED per 4.03/5.05 (market NOTE doctrine).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "NYMEX front-month WTI crude settles at or above 100.00 dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-11 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 12, "resolution": "TRUE if CME official settlement data for the front-month NYMEX WTI light sweet crude contract shows a settlement price of 100.00 or higher on any trading day from 2026-08-11 through 2026-10-30.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 56, 78, 96 ], "failure_condition": "No front-month WTI settlement in that window reaches 100.00 dollars per barrel.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260810-18", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T16:50:15.204221+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2d5cc5f25ab0f569e7a6f321942344997f50ba8817b053c18831eac7b56c616d", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Market-threshold claim with no reference level stated at seal; the keyed/keyless gap is unmeasurable and the entry defaults KEYED per 4.03/5.05 (market NOTE doctrine).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Iranian forces seize or forcibly board at least one commercial merchant vessel in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 38, "resolution": "TRUE if UKMTO issues an incident advisory describing an Iranian seizure or boarding of a merchant vessel in that area within the window and at least one of Reuters, AP, or AFP reports the same incident.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 78, 96, 64 ], "failure_condition": "No Iranian seizure or forcible boarding of a merchant vessel occurs in that area during the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260810-19", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T16:50:15.204228+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8b150c3bf76f203edb63fcb76b00f9ef95445361e5b9e2852a3870cbbaf0d6fc", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [64, 78, 96] carry the claim's operative terms (gulf, hormuz, iranian, strait); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The Israeli cabinet or security cabinet formally approves the United States 15-point Gaza plan between 2026-08-11 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "political", "probability": 18, "resolution": "TRUE if the Israeli Prime Minister Office or Government Press Office announces cabinet approval of that plan within the window and both Reuters and AP report the approval.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 101, 117, 80 ], "failure_condition": "No Israeli cabinet vote approving the 15-point plan is announced during the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260810-20", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "manual/opus-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T16:50:15.204235+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d98898eb67a13488996af4efa58909ecf214f4b5ab5d52ecb4eba9b264d0ba0a", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [80, 101, 117] carry the claim's operative terms (gaza, plan, point); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) catalog will add an entry for a SonicWall SMA1000 vulnerability with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-24.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 60, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog lists a SonicWall SMA1000 CVE with dateAdded between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-24 inclusive, checked as of 2026-08-26; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-08-26", "citations": [ 13 ], "failure_condition": "As of 2026-08-26, no SonicWall SMA1000 CVE appears in the CISA KEV catalog with a dateAdded on or after 2026-08-10.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260810-21", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "Clerk: KEV mirror, SMA1000 entries dateAdded 2026-07-14, none 08-10..08-24.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T16:50:17.079036+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a3b06c43ad397092f5d05a68f5d01e7e391c9368d92099a134b31c7c3a2d0b77", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [13] carry the claim's operative terms (exploited, sonicwall); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-10", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": null }, "evidence": "The CISA KEV catalog vendor listing for SonicWall shows the two SMA1000 entries, CVE-2026-15409 (SSRF) and CVE-2026-15410 (code injection), with a date-added of 2026-07-14 (CISA KEV page; SecurityWeek and BleepingComputer, July 15, 2026); the Aug 10, 2026 change flagged them as used in ransomware campaigns (BleepingComputer Aug 10, 2026; Tech Insider Aug 2026) but did not create a new entry or alter the date-added, and no other SonicWall SMA1000 CVE was added between Aug 10 and Aug 24." } }, { "statement": "Iran will seize, board, or fire upon a commercial vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if UKMTO, the US Fifth Fleet or IMSC, Reuters, or AP report an Iranian seizure, boarding, or attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-02", "citations": [ 64, 76, 78 ], "failure_condition": "No UKMTO, Fifth Fleet, IMSC, Reuters, or AP report of an Iranian vessel seizure, boarding, or attack in the Strait of Hormuz for 2026-08-17 to 2026-08-31 exists as of 2026-09-02.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260810-22", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T16:50:17.079054+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e77c1e3e590df461eebe65a970966011641bcf551cf6c11fce917cf438cc6a1c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [64, 76, 78] carry the claim's operative terms (hormuz, iran, iranian, strait); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-10" }, { "statement": "WTI crude oil NYMEX front-month settlement price will close at or above 85.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if any CME/NYMEX WTI front-month settlement between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31 is 85.00 USD/bbl or higher; FALSE if all settlements in that span stay below 85.00.", "deadline": "2026-09-02", "citations": [ 56, 64 ], "failure_condition": "Every NYMEX WTI front-month daily settlement between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31 closes below 85.00 USD per barrel per CME Group or EIA data.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260810-23", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T16:50:17.079065+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b89951b603e6d408b1a0cc511fc995a260df90f332ca0e202cccb6df4edfb412", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "priors [56] $80 US oil and [64] Iran-Hormuz price move ground the market, but the row states no reference level at seal, so the gap cannot be measured and 4.03/5.05 defaults it to keyed", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-10" }, { "statement": "Ukraine will conduct a further confirmed drone or missile strike on an oil refinery or energy facility in Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, or Samara Oblast between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 47, "resolution": "TRUE if Reuters, AP, RFE/RL, or the Institute for the Study of War report a Ukrainian strike on a refinery or energy facility in Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, or Samara Oblast between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-02", "citations": [ 92, 104 ], "failure_condition": "No Reuters, AP, RFE/RL, or ISW report of a Ukrainian strike on a refinery or energy facility in Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, or Samara Oblast for that window exists as of 2026-09-02.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260810-24", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T16:50:17.079072+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b30227f9873fbce08d90d47f6cc628379413e4a24d3c71ef7f47b02095820719", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [92, 104] carry the claim's operative terms (refinery, strike, tatarstan, ukraine, ukrainian); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-10" }, { "statement": "An Irish court will issue a bail ruling, either granting or denying bail, for Daniel Kinahan between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 45, "resolution": "TRUE if RTE, the Irish Times, or BBC report an Irish court bail ruling, grant or denial, for Daniel Kinahan issued between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-02", "citations": [ 9, 12, 122 ], "failure_condition": "No RTE, Irish Times, or BBC report of a bail ruling for Daniel Kinahan exists for 2026-08-17 to 2026-08-31 as of 2026-09-02.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260810-25", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T16:50:17.079080+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2c85f4f55a031466331353386f9f2dbaf377effba7d8be7d270eca4ad3cc3cd7", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [9, 12, 122] carry the claim's operative terms (court, daniel, kinahan); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-10" }, { "statement": "The Israeli government will publicly announce acceptance, in full or amended form, of the Trump-backed 15-point Gaza plan it rejected around 2026-08-10, between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31.", "domain": "political", "probability": 18, "resolution": "TRUE if Reuters, AP, Times of Israel, or Haaretz report an Israeli government statement accepting the 15-point plan, in full or amended form, issued between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-02", "citations": [ 101, 117 ], "failure_condition": "No Reuters, AP, Times of Israel, or Haaretz report of Israeli government acceptance of the 15-point plan exists for that window as of 2026-09-02.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260810-26", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T16:50:17.079089+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b3b96d147b1ec71ed7d3dd2d764d9155c6d6398b1617374c13e98ad698ae3445", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [101, 117] carry the claim's operative terms (gaza, plan, point, rejected, trump-backed); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-10" }, { "statement": "The confirmed death toll from the 2026-08-10 M7.4 earthquake in western Colombia will reach 50 or more, as reported by Colombia UNGRD, Reuters, or AP, at any point between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-17.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 40, "resolution": "TRUE if Colombia UNGRD, Reuters, or AP report a cumulative confirmed toll of 50 or more for the 2026-08-10 western Colombia earthquake between 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-17; FALSE if it stays below 50.", "deadline": "2026-08-19", "citations": [ 25, 26, 30 ], "failure_condition": "As of 2026-08-19, UNGRD, Reuters, and AP all report a cumulative confirmed death toll below 50 for the 2026-08-10 western Colombia earthquake.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260810-27", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] AP (via CBS News and Spectrum News, Aug 10, 2026) reported President de la Espriella putting the toll at 111 on the day of the quake; Reuters (via The Watchers, Aug 10, 2026) reported at least 77 dead by 13:03 UTC on Aug 10; Al Jazeera with AP and Reuters (Aug 10, 2026) reported 132 dead, and later counts cited on Wikipedia reached 331.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T16:50:17.079096+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9c5442d6c5006001d4622a67522da25f24f4cfb74fb9f7272f73809c20ff5e52", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [26, 30] carry the claim's operative terms (colombia, earthquake, western); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-10", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "AP (via CBS News and Spectrum News, Aug 10, 2026) reported President de la Espriella putting the toll at 111 on the day of the quake; Reuters (via The Watchers, Aug 10, 2026) reported at least 77 dead by 13:03 UTC on Aug 10; Al Jazeera with AP and Reuters (Aug 10, 2026) reported 132 dead, and later counts cited on Wikipedia reached 331." } }, { "statement": "LexisNexis will publicly confirm that consumer or customer personal data was accessed or exfiltrated in the server incident disclosed around 2026-08-10, via an SEC filing, a state attorney general breach-notification portal, or a company statement, between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 32, "resolution": "TRUE if LexisNexis, a state attorney general breach-notification filing, or an SEC EDGAR filing confirms personal data was accessed or exfiltrated in this incident, with that confirmation occurring between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-02", "citations": [ 17 ], "failure_condition": "No LexisNexis statement, state AG breach-notification filing, or SEC EDGAR filing confirming data access or exfiltration exists for that window as of 2026-09-02.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260810-28", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T16:50:17.079103+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1a946c01e1f6f6681d2ece9a2054a282694e6f5d5854bcce289ca9c8fdbd214a", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [17] carry the claim's operative terms (lexisnexi, server); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-10" }, { "statement": "Intel Corporation will price and close the 15 billion USD stock offering referenced in reporting on 2026-08-10, as confirmed by an SEC EDGAR filing, between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 58, "resolution": "TRUE if Intel files an SEC EDGAR Form 424B or 8-K confirming pricing and closing of the referenced stock offering between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-02", "citations": [ 57 ], "failure_condition": "No Intel SEC EDGAR filing confirming pricing and closing of the referenced stock offering exists for that window as of 2026-09-02.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260810-29", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T16:50:17.079110+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a7f7fd995c6fa002b63cdfdd6be55fa163639f18a260bbd8bf4b3eb3d5898906", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [57] carry the claim's operative terms (billion, intel, offering, stock); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-10" }, { "statement": "Ofcom will publish a decision, either finding a breach or clearing GB News, regarding the guest remarks on pride and paedophilia referenced in reporting on 2026-08-10, between 2026-10-01 and 2027-01-31.", "domain": "political", "probability": 42, "resolution": "TRUE if an Ofcom Broadcast and On Demand Bulletin decision on this complaint or segment is published between 2026-10-01 and 2027-01-31; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2027-02-03", "citations": [ 109 ], "failure_condition": "No Ofcom Broadcast and On Demand Bulletin decision on this complaint or segment is published for that window as of 2027-02-03.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260810-30", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "manual/sonnet-5", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T16:50:17.079117+00:00", "seal_sha256": "80a5bd349e2544f8f0945e3ebf8e2ab97a4c009392903ea54884bf2f5fda70f4", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [109] carry the claim's operative terms (guest, ofcom, paedophilia, pride, remark); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry with vendorProject Progress Software carrying a dateAdded value between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 31, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog JSON contains at least one vulnerability record whose vendorProject field is Progress Software and whose dateAdded field falls between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 21, 13 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV record carries vendorProject Progress Software with a dateAdded inside that window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3077, "n": 39, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-10T16:50:17Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260810-15" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260810-31", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T16:55:19.499575+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c32474235bc7c77662b76cd5628f033bb4e12abb7619b3a770fabd52ab10e5b1", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "LexisNexis Risk Solutions reports a data breach affecting 100000 or more individuals to the Maine Attorney General between 2026-08-11 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 31, "resolution": "TRUE if the Maine AG data breach notification database lists a filing by LexisNexis Risk Solutions or a LexisNexis entity, dated 2026-08-11 through 2026-12-31, with total affected of 100000 or more.", "deadline": "2027-01-08", "citations": [ 17 ], "failure_condition": "No such filing appears, or every LexisNexis filing in the window reports fewer than 100000 affected individuals.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3077, "n": 39, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-10T16:50:17Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260810-16" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260810-32", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T16:55:19.499595+00:00", "seal_sha256": "274d17d2667f76c37ebfc728a8a5329c0e248ab52f94027bff23de78e48b7416", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "NYMEX front-month WTI crude settles at or below 72.00 dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-11 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 18, "resolution": "TRUE if CME official settlement data for the front-month NYMEX WTI light sweet crude contract shows a settlement price of 72.00 or lower on any trading day from 2026-08-11 through 2026-11-30.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 56, 64, 78 ], "failure_condition": "Every front-month WTI settlement in that window prints above 72.00 dollars per barrel.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.1818, "n": 11, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-10T16:50:17Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260810-17" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260810-33", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T16:55:19.499609+00:00", "seal_sha256": "aabfab61f2ffdff962b0efd109b8798a72a662d1ecaaa9d797c9e47d9ea0c8bf", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "NYMEX front-month WTI crude settles at or above 100.00 dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-11 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 18, "resolution": "TRUE if CME official settlement data for the front-month NYMEX WTI light sweet crude contract shows a settlement price of 100.00 or higher on any trading day from 2026-08-11 through 2026-10-30.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 56, 78, 96 ], "failure_condition": "No front-month WTI settlement in that window reaches 100.00 dollars per barrel.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.1818, "n": 11, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-10T16:50:17Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260810-18" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260810-34", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T16:55:19.499618+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f40c8da41ecd5db218375d6b7c82d041dc21e5fd5acd27cf3271d900b7269043", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Iranian forces seize or forcibly board at least one commercial merchant vessel in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 31, "resolution": "TRUE if UKMTO issues an incident advisory describing an Iranian seizure or boarding of a merchant vessel in that area within the window and at least one of Reuters, AP, or AFP reports the same incident.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 78, 96, 64 ], "failure_condition": "No Iranian seizure or forcible boarding of a merchant vessel occurs in that area during the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3077, "n": 39, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-10T16:50:17Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260810-19" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260810-35", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T16:55:19.499626+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ebfb5c7e50fc79522083310635df66b941c000f3c1df0aa4a0dbff1da5135c2c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The Israeli cabinet or security cabinet formally approves the United States 15-point Gaza plan between 2026-08-11 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "political", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the Israeli Prime Minister Office or Government Press Office announces cabinet approval of that plan within the window and both Reuters and AP report the approval.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 101, 117, 80 ], "failure_condition": "No Israeli cabinet vote approving the 15-point plan is announced during the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3, "n": 10, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-10T16:50:17Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260810-20" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-10_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260810-36", "date_issued": "2026-08-10", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-10_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-10T16:55:19.499634+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3d72817effdf7cf41d4acc13ff88ec062913e1c1b3708a1e8a46eb9e7903731d", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-25, the CISA KEV catalog will add a new entry for a vulnerability in Microsoft SharePoint exploited in ransomware attacks, with a date-added value between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-25.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-25 for a vulnerability in Microsoft SharePoint exploited in ransomware attacks.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 23 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog does not carry a date-added value between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-25 for a vulnerability in Microsoft SharePoint exploited in ransomware attacks.", "id": "KKR-20260811-01", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] The nearest SharePoint KEV addition, CVE-2026-55040, carries dateAdded 2026-08-18, outside 08-22 to 08-25 per the CISA alert; the ransomware-linked KEV note that week concerned a Windows Task Host flaw, not SharePoint.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T17:52:56.119178+00:00", "seal_sha256": "552c1691cdf4f9eceeb7b4625016777c217a12e5fa84d995573c5eeb0f8d360d", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [23] carry the claim's operative terms (attack, exploited, microsoft, ransomware, sharepoint); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-11", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The nearest SharePoint KEV addition, CVE-2026-55040, carries dateAdded 2026-08-18, outside 08-22 to 08-25 per the CISA alert; the ransomware-linked KEV note that week concerned a Windows Task Host flaw, not SharePoint." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-23 and 2026-08-26, the S&P 500 will close above 7,800 points on at least one weekday within the window, based on the official market close data from the NYSE.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 45, "resolution": "The S&P 500 closes above 7,800 points on at least one weekday between 2026-08-23 and 2026-08-26, as reported by the NYSE.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 5 ], "failure_condition": "The S&P 500 closes at or below 7,800 points on every weekday between 2026-08-23 and 2026-08-26.", "id": "KKR-20260811-02", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] CNBC market data show the S&P 500 closed 7730.99 on 08-27 after a 0.72 percent advance, implying roughly 7675 on 08-26, with slightly lower closes earlier that week; no weekday close 08-23 to 08-26 reached 7800.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T17:52:56.119202+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9ac94cf25e1627f21afcf4ecadfa36907a628b58152bdd61d807bb46862715eb", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [5] carry the claim's operative terms (window); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-11", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "CNBC market data show the S&P 500 closed 7730.99 on 08-27 after a 0.72 percent advance, implying roughly 7675 on 08-26, with slightly lower closes earlier that week; no weekday close 08-23 to 08-26 reached 7800." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-24 and 2026-08-27, a wildfire in California's Big Sur region will result in at least one confirmed fatality, as reported by two independent outlets (Guardian World and BBC World).", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 35, "resolution": "Two independent outlets (Guardian World and BBC World) report at least one confirmed fatality from a wildfire in California's Big Sur region between 2026-08-24 and 2026-08-27.", "deadline": "2026-08-30", "citations": [ 41, 47 ], "failure_condition": "No independent report from Guardian World or BBC World confirms a fatality from a wildfire in California's Big Sur region between 2026-08-24 and 2026-08-27.", "id": "KKR-20260811-03", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] The Timber Fire (from 08-08, 24,408 acres by 08-29 per CAL FIRE) and Plaskett Fire (from 08-26) were active in Big Sur during 08-24 to 08-27 with zero fatalities reported by AP via ABC 08-27, CAL FIRE incident updates, or any outlet.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T17:52:56.119213+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2e2c5858e530bf37f1024252072d0dd57e4a3c2ab9e48949d23dc160f6451d36", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [41, 47] carry the claim's operative terms (california', wildfire); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-11", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The Timber Fire (from 08-08, 24,408 acres by 08-29 per CAL FIRE) and Plaskett Fire (from 08-26) were active in Big Sur during 08-24 to 08-27 with zero fatalities reported by AP via ABC 08-27, CAL FIRE incident updates, or any outlet." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-28, the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce a 0.25 percentage point increase in the federal funds rate, as confirmed by a press release from the Federal Reserve Board.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 40, "resolution": "A press release from the Federal Reserve Board confirms a 0.25 percentage point increase in the federal funds rate between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-28.", "deadline": "2026-08-30", "citations": [ 5 ], "failure_condition": "The Federal Reserve Board does not issue a press release confirming a 0.25 percentage point increase in the federal funds rate between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-28.", "id": "KKR-20260811-04", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] No Federal Reserve rate increase occurred 08-25 to 08-28; Warsh spoke hawkishly at Jackson Hole 08-28 without action, and markets on 08-31 priced a September hike at roughly 60 percent per tradingeconomics, entailing no August move.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T17:52:56.119224+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5f53b1e58e84b0c996cfc86b870285fd195b427457a906f7efca236105902317", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [5] carry the claim's operative terms (release); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-11", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "No Federal Reserve rate increase occurred 08-25 to 08-28; Warsh spoke hawkishly at Jackson Hole 08-28 without action, and markets on 08-31 priced a September hike at roughly 60 percent per tradingeconomics, entailing no August move." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-26 and 2026-08-29, a cyberattack exploiting a zero-day vulnerability in OpenAI's GPT-5.6-Cyber model will be reported by at least two independent outlets (The Hacker News and BleepingComputer), with no public patch released by OpenAI.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 20, "resolution": "Two independent outlets (The Hacker News and BleepingComputer) report a cyberattack exploiting a zero-day vulnerability in OpenAI's GPT-5.6-Cyber model between 2026-08-26 and 2026-08-29, with no public patch released by OpenAI.", "deadline": "2026-08-31", "citations": [ 21 ], "failure_condition": "A cyberattack exploiting a zero-day vulnerability in OpenAI's GPT-5.6-Cyber model is not reported by both The Hacker News and BleepingComputer between 2026-08-26 and 2026-08-29, or a public patch is released by OpenAI.", "id": "KKR-20260811-05", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] No product named GPT-5.6-Cyber appears in any coverage, and neither The Hacker News nor BleepingComputer published a story 08-26 to 08-29 about a zero-day in an OpenAI model; both outlets late-August streams are dominated by Ray, SharePoint, ATF, and QTFY coverage.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T17:52:56.119233+00:00", "seal_sha256": "32a8d2d749ea020181592b2b522060275966f9c520988d802f831305b85c8132", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [21] carry the claim's operative terms (cyber, cyberattack, exploiting, hacker, openai, openai'); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-11", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "No product named GPT-5.6-Cyber appears in any coverage, and neither The Hacker News nor BleepingComputer published a story 08-26 to 08-29 about a zero-day in an OpenAI model; both outlets late-August streams are dominated by Ray, SharePoint, ATF, and QTFY coverage." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-27 and 2026-08-30, the European Parliament will vote to abolish the death penalty for all crimes, as confirmed by a press release from the European Parliament.", "domain": "political", "probability": 15, "resolution": "A press release from the European Parliament confirms the abolition of the death penalty for all crimes between 2026-08-27 and 2026-08-30.", "deadline": "2026-09-01", "citations": [ 112 ], "failure_condition": "The European Parliament does not issue a press release confirming the abolition of the death penalty for all crimes between 2026-08-27 and 2026-08-30.", "id": "KKR-20260811-06", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "void", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "triply impossible as written per the searched seat: no session, no competence, no subject matter", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T17:52:56.119243+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f15862bd8a502dcc2cf36a4fefdf7fbd6fe0ba41cccef0388330507e502f39f2", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [112] carry the claim's operative terms (abolish, abolition, death, parliament, penalty, vote); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-11", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "operator", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The European Parliament holds no plenary in late August and issued no press release on abolishing the death penalty 08-27 to 08-30; the EP also has no competence over member-state criminal penalties, and EU members abolished the death penalty decades ago." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-28 and 2026-08-31, a magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake will be recorded by the USGS in the Philippines, with a depth of less than 70 km and a location within 100 km of the island of Mindanao.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The USGS Significant Quakes database records a magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake with a depth of less than 70 km and a location within 100 km of the island of Mindanao between 2026-08-28 and 2026-08-31.", "deadline": "2026-09-02", "citations": [ 54 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS Significant Quakes database does not record a magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake with a depth of less than 70 km and a location within 100 km of the island of Mindanao between 2026-08-28 and 2026-08-31.", "id": "KKR-20260811-07", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T17:52:56.119250+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9cc3aeefaadbe6cc050181609ef33ed3081b7abcdfe40a4055412540de95cfa8", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [54] carry the claim's operative terms (philippine, quake, significant); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-11" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-29 and 2026-09-01, the U.S. Department of Justice will announce the indictment of a former senior official from the Trump administration for obstruction of justice, as confirmed by a press release from the DOJ.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 25, "resolution": "A press release from the U.S. Department of Justice confirms the indictment of a former senior official from the Trump administration for obstruction of justice between 2026-08-29 and 2026-09-01.", "deadline": "2026-09-03", "citations": [ 120 ], "failure_condition": "The U.S. Department of Justice does not issue a press release confirming the indictment of a former senior official from the Trump administration for obstruction of justice between 2026-08-29 and 2026-09-01.", "id": "KKR-20260811-08", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T17:52:56.119259+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5119625e13c0a216e7df446a48ead1d7189d3d1bf9f306bff967e52c3202b553", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [120] carry the claim's operative terms (trump); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-11" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-30 and 2026-09-02, a new ransomware group called 'Gunra' will be confirmed by CISA to have exploited a vulnerability in Fortinet firewalls, with a public exploit available by 2026-09-02.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 35, "resolution": "CISA issues a public advisory confirming that the Gunra ransomware group exploited a vulnerability in Fortinet firewalls between 2026-08-30 and 2026-09-02, with a public exploit available by 2026-09-02.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 34 ], "failure_condition": "CISA does not issue a public advisory confirming that the Gunra ransomware group exploited a vulnerability in Fortinet firewalls between 2026-08-30 and 2026-09-02, or no public exploit is available by 2026-09-02.", "id": "KKR-20260811-09", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T17:52:56.119267+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7c39a85f49ec7dcf1f1f090f91b119b8f54a30187355669d3318b61238e31599", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [34] carry the claim's operative terms (exploit, exploited, fortinet, gunra, ransomware); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-11" }, { "statement": "At least one Russian missile or drone strike on Kyiv city between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-11 is acknowledged by Ukrainian officials and reported by at least two international wire services.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 92, "resolution": "TRUE if Ukrainian officials acknowledge and two of Reuters, AP, AFP report at least one Russian air attack impacting Kyiv city with strike date between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-11.", "deadline": "2026-09-15", "citations": [ 92, 109 ], "failure_condition": "No Russian air attack on Kyiv city occurring within the window receives both Ukrainian official acknowledgment and two-wire corroboration by the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-10", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:07:53.078421+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e3af5131473e43c9128cc8f1cdf8bb34dc7eda1b2f38572a22968d5dc761c8e9", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [92] carry the claim's operative terms (missile, russian, strike, ukrainian); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The United States and Iran jointly announce a signed ceasefire or framework agreement between 2026-08-12 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if the US government and the government of Iran each officially confirm a signed ceasefire or framework agreement announced between 2026-08-12 and 2026-11-30, per two international wire services.", "deadline": "2026-12-03", "citations": [ 82 ], "failure_condition": "No ceasefire or framework agreement is confirmed by both governments within the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-11", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:07:53.078442+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d08e3ac375810e1efbb016e8ddebd3c1eb722aff3f946880a051a18ef7e9561e", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited priors ground the US–Iran confrontation context; no agreement appears in the record. KEYED under the attribution doctrine (2026-08-04).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "NYMEX WTI crude front-month futures settle at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 20, "resolution": "TRUE if CME official settlement data show the WTI front-month contract settling at or above 100.00 USD on any trading day between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 63, 82 ], "failure_condition": "Every WTI front-month official settlement in the window is below 100.00 USD.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-12", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:07:53.078453+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6a05a7ccc48dc8294bf6627312ce98c4ae6325a095c0a95419277afb575d9dca", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Market-threshold claim with no reference level stated at seal; the keyed/keyless gap is unmeasurable and the entry defaults KEYED per 4.03/5.05 (market NOTE doctrine).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The New York Fed Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit covering Q3 2026, published between 2026-11-01 and 2026-12-15, states aggregate credit card balances at or above 1.26 trillion USD.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 85, "resolution": "TRUE if the NY Fed Q3 2026 Household Debt and Credit report, released between 2026-11-01 and 2026-12-15, states aggregate credit card balances at or above 1.26 trillion USD.", "deadline": "2026-12-18", "citations": [ 80 ], "failure_condition": "The report is not released within the window, or it states aggregate credit card balances below 1.26 trillion USD.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-13", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:07:53.078461+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2f2cd47f356efcd7ff44d19b0899135491c3411113eb97c6b268dc69cef6cb65", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [80] carry the claim's operative terms (card, credit, debt, trillion); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one Microsoft SharePoint vulnerability with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-12 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog contains at least one entry whose product field references SharePoint and whose dateAdded falls between 2026-08-12 and 2026-10-31.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 16, 23 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry referencing SharePoint carries a dateAdded value inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-14", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:07:53.078470+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e29c3eb3f517a94c056eb9ea1d0c955062dac941b3b094d57b92b06271c96d89", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [16, 23] carry the claim's operative terms (exploited, microsoft, sharepoint); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "CISA publishes a new cybersecurity advisory, distinct from any existing on 2026-08-11, that names Gunra ransomware, with publication date between 2026-08-12 and 2026-12-04.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the cisa.gov advisories index lists an advisory first published between 2026-08-12 and 2026-12-04 whose text names Gunra.", "deadline": "2026-12-08", "citations": [ 33, 34 ], "failure_condition": "No new CISA advisory naming Gunra is first published within the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-15", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:07:53.078477+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fa30507773c39d5199b75a5dd250639acc0781f6d3977fd3a64607558555ee87", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [33, 34] carry the claim's operative terms (gunra, ransomware); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The UK Met Office announces between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-10 that summer 2026 was the warmest summer on record for the UK in its national temperature series.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 65, "resolution": "TRUE if a Met Office publication dated between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-10 states summer 2026 set the UK record for warmest summer in its series.", "deadline": "2026-09-14", "citations": [ 40 ], "failure_condition": "The Met Office seasonal statement does not appear within the window, or it does not declare summer 2026 the warmest on record.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-16", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:07:53.078485+00:00", "seal_sha256": "aa33a42f7f1be33420580d70536468bba4056d77bacd74e041b90b98ac215b2e", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [40] carry the claim's operative terms (record, summer); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Russian authorities transfer Bashar al-Assad to Syrian government custody between 2026-08-12 and 2027-01-31.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 5, "resolution": "TRUE if two of Reuters, AP, AFP report that Assad was transferred from Russia into Syrian government custody with transfer date between 2026-08-12 and 2027-01-31.", "deadline": "2027-02-03", "citations": [ 53, 98, 135 ], "failure_condition": "Assad remains outside Syrian government custody throughout the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-17", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:07:53.078492+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7892fb6785e1ac34aabea7ab89873db39a8e159f727c2c02a46222726b746a52", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [53, 98, 135] carry the claim's operative terms (al-assad, assad, bashar, syrian); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one CVE whose vendorProject is Fortinet or Schneider Electric, with dateAdded between 2026-08-12 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 50, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed holds at least one entry with vendorProject Fortinet or Schneider Electric and a dateAdded value between 2026-08-12 and 2026-10-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 33, 34 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry from either vendor carries a dateAdded value inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-18", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:07:53.792593+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f9a080be37371f12d50ea469ab601f08b5b13a7bbabeeb156a6e1895725be7d9", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [34] carry the claim's operative terms (electric, exploited, fortinet, schneider); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog adds at least one new Microsoft SharePoint Server CVE, with dateAdded between 2026-08-12 and 2026-10-16.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if a KEV entry whose product field names SharePoint carries a dateAdded between 2026-08-12 and 2026-10-16 inclusive and was absent from the catalog on 2026-08-11.", "deadline": "2026-10-20", "citations": [ 16, 23 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV catalog gains no SharePoint entry with a dateAdded inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-19", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:07:53.792611+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fa48736e479d49aa54353d3e7b00f271c13c39ec5d4da572be007578f491a934", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [16, 23] carry the claim's operative terms (microsoft, sharepoint); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The US Treasury designates at least one person or entity for facilitating North Korean arms or missile transfers to Russia, with the action dated between 2026-08-12 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 32, "resolution": "TRUE if an OFAC press release or SDN list update dated inside the window names DPRK-to-Russia arms, missile, or munitions transfer as a basis for the designation.", "deadline": "2026-12-03", "citations": [ 92, 109 ], "failure_condition": "No OFAC action inside the window cites DPRK-to-Russia arms or missile transfer as a designation basis.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-20", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:07:53.792622+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0b58a855bd3e1a4b25ab49b1db139850a6d0eb833078b1d5956414c68c169134", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [92] carry the claim's operative terms (korean, missile, north, russia); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "United States and Iranian officials hold a publicly acknowledged direct bilateral meeting between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 40, "resolution": "TRUE if a US executive branch statement and an Iranian foreign ministry statement both confirm a direct bilateral meeting held inside the window, and two of Reuters, AP, AFP report it.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 63, 82 ], "failure_condition": "No direct US-Iran bilateral meeting held inside the window is confirmed by both governments.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-21", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:07:53.792631+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0b2b510a25f241a5fa352f2f325bed9bd62831036cb9b9070f50a19db54a4596", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited priors ground the US–Iran standoff and channel context; the meeting itself is stated nowhere. KEYED under the attribution doctrine (2026-08-04).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "NYMEX front-month WTI crude futures settle at or above 95.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "economics", "probability": 28, "resolution": "TRUE if the CME published settlement price for the front-month WTI contract is 95.00 or higher on any trading day between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 63, 82 ], "failure_condition": "Every front-month WTI settlement inside the window prints below 95.00 dollars.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-22", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:07:53.792638+00:00", "seal_sha256": "84b258719ed54dfc69b7f476bf0d4693da0a13e70fcebbf9f5ca33eef0afae47", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Market-threshold claim with no reference level stated at seal; the keyed/keyless gap is unmeasurable and the entry defaults KEYED per 4.03/5.05 (market NOTE doctrine).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The New York Fed Household Debt and Credit Report for Q3 2026 reports aggregate credit card balances above 1.26 trillion US dollars.", "domain": "economics", "probability": 80, "resolution": "TRUE if the Q3 2026 report published on newyorkfed.org states an aggregate credit card balance greater than 1.26 trillion dollars, published on or before the deadline.", "deadline": "2026-11-20", "citations": [ 80 ], "failure_condition": "The Q3 2026 report shows credit card balances at or below 1.26 trillion dollars, or no such report exists by the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-23", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:07:53.792646+00:00", "seal_sha256": "542626c5c839b66698fb94081c2ac260a50af028b7ffd45320be29107f794d15", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [80] carry the claim's operative terms (card, credit, debt, trillion); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Thailand adopts a cabinet resolution or statutory amendment permanently tightening civilian firearm permit rules, adopted between 2026-08-12 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if a Thai government announcement plus reporting by two of Reuters, AP, AFP, Bangkok Post confirm a cabinet resolution or Firearms Act amendment adopted inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 12 ], "failure_condition": "No Thai cabinet resolution or statutory amendment tightening firearm permits is adopted inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-24", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:07:53.792652+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7efbf22d79da00c775597922b0cd81f9a22397ae8d91ca3cbcbc917bccac480b", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [12] carry the claim's operative terms (permit, thai, thailand); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The USGS catalog lists at least one magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake within 300 km of USGS event us6000tjl2, with origin time between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 22, "resolution": "TRUE if the USGS FDSN event query returns at least one M6.0 or greater event within 300 km of the us6000tjl2 epicenter with origin time inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 39, 51 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS catalog holds no M6.0 or greater event meeting both the radius and the origin-time criteria.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-25", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:07:53.792659+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ad9f276d376e9e3e017bb56ba42da446d74d4c4bae61d5069dca06542605f00a", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "FLIPPED from machine KEYED (basis was the token 'earthquake'). Same family as -28/-26/-08: cited record supplies the mainshock, not any M6+ within 300 km. Prior grounds the subject, not the outcome — operator-claimed KEYLESS for family consistency.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "CISA will add a Microsoft SharePoint remote-code-execution entry to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog, with the event occurring between 2026-08-11 and 2026-08-25, per items 16 and 23.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 55, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog lists a Microsoft SharePoint RCE entry with dateAdded between 2026-08-11 and 2026-08-25; FALSE if no such entry exists by the deadline.", "deadline": "2026-08-27", "citations": [ 16, 23 ], "failure_condition": "No Microsoft SharePoint RCE vulnerability appears in the CISA KEV catalog with a dateAdded value in the stated window by the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-26", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[AMBIGUOUS] CVE-2026-55040 added to KEV 08-18, in window, CISA alert plus independent: letter met <<<", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:07:56.712876+00:00", "seal_sha256": "62011f805a81d772ae1834a1f631ec9bc21c3a59632b9340fc54f7c643f47583", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [16, 23] carry the claim's operative terms (exploited, microsoft, sharepoint); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "operator", "verdicts": { "claude": "AMBIGUOUS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "CISA added Microsoft SharePoint CVE-2026-55040 to KEV on 2026-08-18, inside 08-11 to 08-25, per the CISA alert and The Hacker News 08-18." } }, { "statement": "A US water or energy utility beyond those in items 33, 34, and 37 will publicly disclose a new ransomware incident, occurring between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-08.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 68, "resolution": "TRUE if BleepingComputer, The Hacker News, or a CISA advisory reports a new confirmed US water- or energy-utility ransomware incident dated 2026-08-11 to 2026-09-08, confirmed by 2026-09-10; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-10", "citations": [ 33, 34, 37 ], "failure_condition": "No new US water- or energy-utility ransomware incident beyond the cited items is confirmed within the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-27", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:07:56.712896+00:00", "seal_sha256": "185892e8967b40e046b38b95ea7d0b402389672694ca74a6c87ceee5e23b414e", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [33, 34, 37] carry the claim's operative terms (hacker, ransomware, utility, water); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "USGS will record an aftershock of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 100 km of the M7.4 mainshock in item 39, occurring between 2026-08-11 and 2026-08-22.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 28, "resolution": "TRUE if USGS lists an M6.0+ event within 100 km of us6000tjl2 with an origin time between 2026-08-11 and 2026-08-22; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-08-24", "citations": [ 39 ], "failure_condition": "USGS records no M6.0 or greater event within 100 km of the epicenter of the mainshock during the stated window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-28", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] Wikipedia summary of the 2026 Colombia earthquake (updated Aug 25, 2026, citing USGS/ANSS and the Colombian Geological Survey) states the M7.4 mainshock of Aug 10 was followed by more than 100 aftershocks, the largest an mb 5.0 at 08:18 COT on Aug 10; CBS News/USGS (Aug 10, 2026) and Seismosoft (Aug 2026) likewise report the largest aftershock at M5.0 or M4.8; no news or agency report of an M6.0 or greater aftershock near us6000tjl2 between Aug 11 and Aug 22 was found.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:07:56.712908+00:00", "seal_sha256": "316e4400e194035b13a897bb5e5dee8c126dd9deddc53e9636b4fd2bc9b44696", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited record supplies the M7.4 mainshock only; no cited prior contains any recorded M6+ aftershock and the outcome is stated nowhere in the record. Rate claim atop a recorded trigger — operator-claimed KEYLESS.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": null }, "evidence": "Wikipedia summary of the 2026 Colombia earthquake (updated Aug 25, 2026, citing USGS/ANSS and the Colombian Geological Survey) states the M7.4 mainshock of Aug 10 was followed by more than 100 aftershocks, the largest an mb 5.0 at 08:18 COT on Aug 10; CBS News/USGS (Aug 10, 2026) and Seismosoft (Aug 2026) likewise report the largest aftershock at M5.0 or M4.8; no news or agency report of an M6.0 or greater aftershock near us6000tjl2 between Aug 11 and Aug 22 was found." } }, { "statement": "CAL FIRE will report the Big Sur-area wildfire from item 41 at 50 percent containment or higher, with the milestone reached between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-01.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 58, "resolution": "TRUE if the CAL FIRE incident page for the fire in item 41 shows containment at or above 50 percent at any point between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-01; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-03", "citations": [ 41 ], "failure_condition": "The CAL FIRE incident report shows containment for this fire remains below 50 percent as of the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-29", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:07:56.712917+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a45730921ac30a36fff966e8f16b6122ac2ec14f75233c23be09be556ed8999a", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "The fire itself enters from the cited record (item-referential); the containment milestone is not stated. KEYED under the attribution doctrine (2026-08-04).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "WTI crude oil will settle at or above 90.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-08, extending the move in item 63.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if the NYMEX WTI front-month settlement price is 90.00 USD per barrel or higher on any trading day between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-08; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-09", "citations": [ 63 ], "failure_condition": "The NYMEX WTI front-month contract never settles at or above 90.00 USD per barrel during the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-30", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:07:56.712924+00:00", "seal_sha256": "084fb20b03be71526ef4f17ffeecbc7d817307d4c4a4790e1c32a7f729531eb5", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Market-threshold claim with no reference level stated at seal; the keyed/keyless gap is unmeasurable and the entry defaults KEYED per 4.03/5.05 (market NOTE doctrine).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Intel common stock will close at or above 100.00 USD on the Nasdaq on at least one trading day between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-10, following the offering in item 84.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 38, "resolution": "TRUE if Nasdaq closing price data show INTC at or above 100.00 USD on any session between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-10; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-11", "citations": [ 84 ], "failure_condition": "The INTC Nasdaq closing price stays below 100.00 USD on every trading day in the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-31", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:07:56.712932+00:00", "seal_sha256": "60aeb4604d4320f5532fbd16fff9a387ae1419bcbec4573ab409d8e17e84c818", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [84] carry the claim's operative terms (intel, offering, stock); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "A named wire service will report a new clash between Nigerian security forces and non-state armed groups in northwestern Nigeria with 10 or more combined fatalities, occurring between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-01, per item 99.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 75, "resolution": "TRUE if Reuters, AP, AFP, or Al Jazeera reports a new northwestern-Nigeria clash with 10 or more combined fatalities dated 2026-08-11 to 2026-09-01; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-03", "citations": [ 99 ], "failure_condition": "No wire-reported northwestern Nigeria clash in the window reaches 10 combined fatalities.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-32", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:07:56.712939+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4c0f39722a53f232d832fde81731ee497a76886d904c2a2f0d755143579b2830", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [99] carry the claim's operative terms (northwestern, northwestern-nigeria); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Independent trackers will corroborate a Russian strike using North Korean-supplied missiles against Ukraine, beyond the claim in items 92 and 109, occurring between 2026-08-11 and 2026-08-29.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 40, "resolution": "TRUE if two or more of ISW, Reuters, or AP attribute a Russian strike dated 2026-08-11 to 2026-08-29 to North Korean-supplied missiles; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-08-31", "citations": [ 92, 109 ], "failure_condition": "No two independent trackers attribute a Russian strike in the window to North Korean-supplied missiles.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-33", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[AMBIGUOUS] 08-11 NK-attributed Zaporizhzhia strike, AP via WaPo plus Zelensky; h if attribution clause met <<<", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:07:56.712947+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5b4c8ab8b5ff670b511ced554bd3d4a450536b980c65bac7e9ec46bb39e0e03e", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [92] carry the claim's operative terms (korean-supplied, missile, north, russian, strike, ukraine); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "operator", "verdicts": { "claude": "AMBIGUOUS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The 08-11 Zaporizhzhia strike was attributed by Zelensky to North Korean ballistic missiles and reported by AP (via Washington Post), AJ with Reuters imagery, and RFE/RL, dated inside 08-11 to 08-29; Ukrainian intelligence separately confirmed first KN-30 deliveries on 08-20." } }, { "statement": "Hungarian President Baka, elected as an Orban critic per items 122, 124, and 125, will decline to sign or will refer to the Constitutional Court a government-backed bill, between 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-16.", "domain": "political", "probability": 20, "resolution": "TRUE if Reuters, AP, or DW reports Baka refusing signature or referring a Fidesz-backed bill to the Constitutional Court between 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-16; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-11-18", "citations": [ 122, 124, 125 ], "failure_condition": "Baka signs every government-backed bill presented to him during the window without referral or refusal.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-34", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:07:56.712954+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ed5c4f08d8645655e5597e4c06e6802c29775df00ee6f352b53db5f250289a79", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [122, 124, 125] carry the claim's operative terms (baka, court, critic, elected, hungarian, orban); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "A US federal agency will file new public criminal or civil charges against Gautam Adani or a named Adani Group executive, occurring between 2026-08-11 and 2026-11-09, despite the dismissal in item 9.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 12, "resolution": "TRUE if DOJ, SEC, or another US federal agency announces new public charges against Adani or an Adani Group executive dated 2026-08-11 to 2026-11-09, confirmed by 2026-11-11; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-11-11", "citations": [ 9 ], "failure_condition": "No US federal agency files new public charges against Adani or a named Adani Group executive during the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-35", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:07:56.712962+00:00", "seal_sha256": "459102bd8179916fcb07728546f711fe292fd8b2afa82664a10c995f78c7ecd9", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [9] carry the claim's operative terms (adani, gautam); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "At least one Russian missile or drone strike on Kyiv city between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-11 is acknowledged by Ukrainian officials and reported by at least two international wire services.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if Ukrainian officials acknowledge and two of Reuters, AP, AFP report at least one Russian air attack impacting Kyiv city with strike date between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-11.", "deadline": "2026-09-15", "citations": [ 92, 109 ], "failure_condition": "No Russian air attack on Kyiv city occurring within the window receives both Ukrainian official acknowledgment and two-wire corroboration by the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-11T22:07:56Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260811-10" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-36", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:11:07.651958+00:00", "seal_sha256": "337e1032b874bcf3e634df6996e9e9dd8918cf42fcb4cfb5c367284a4b09712a", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The United States and Iran jointly announce a signed ceasefire or framework agreement between 2026-08-12 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if the US government and the government of Iran each officially confirm a signed ceasefire or framework agreement announced between 2026-08-12 and 2026-11-30, per two international wire services.", "deadline": "2026-12-03", "citations": [ 82 ], "failure_condition": "No ceasefire or framework agreement is confirmed by both governments within the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-11T22:07:56Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260811-11" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-37", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:11:07.651978+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fdfddba0fdb688e09e7d6ee56f7a500d8f8bf25ef0357cd46373e61ed632f8fc", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "NYMEX WTI crude front-month futures settle at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 18, "resolution": "TRUE if CME official settlement data show the WTI front-month contract settling at or above 100.00 USD on any trading day between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 63, 82 ], "failure_condition": "Every WTI front-month official settlement in the window is below 100.00 USD.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.1818, "n": 11, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-11T22:07:56Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260811-12" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-38", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:11:07.651989+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fbe97f77e8137598084970c94a7c3281d9f318064d76788aa0b7b7aee772979e", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The New York Fed Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit covering Q3 2026, published between 2026-11-01 and 2026-12-15, states aggregate credit card balances at or above 1.26 trillion USD.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 18, "resolution": "TRUE if the NY Fed Q3 2026 Household Debt and Credit report, released between 2026-11-01 and 2026-12-15, states aggregate credit card balances at or above 1.26 trillion USD.", "deadline": "2026-12-18", "citations": [ 80 ], "failure_condition": "The report is not released within the window, or it states aggregate credit card balances below 1.26 trillion USD.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.1818, "n": 11, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-11T22:07:56Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260811-13" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-39", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:11:07.651998+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6a892c358c5914d5e2922aef94c6a0a6ba2dd844f0a92ba4e40758ac77eda020", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one Microsoft SharePoint vulnerability with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-12 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog contains at least one entry whose product field references SharePoint and whose dateAdded falls between 2026-08-12 and 2026-10-31.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 16, 23 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry referencing SharePoint carries a dateAdded value inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-11T22:07:56Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260811-14" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-40", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:11:07.652006+00:00", "seal_sha256": "067d679812878e89f877efc733c121c1226d1affc0e11ef8d4f977282a3da202", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "CISA publishes a new cybersecurity advisory, distinct from any existing on 2026-08-11, that names Gunra ransomware, with publication date between 2026-08-12 and 2026-12-04.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if the cisa.gov advisories index lists an advisory first published between 2026-08-12 and 2026-12-04 whose text names Gunra.", "deadline": "2026-12-08", "citations": [ 33, 34 ], "failure_condition": "No new CISA advisory naming Gunra is first published within the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-11T22:07:56Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260811-15" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-41", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:11:07.652014+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fbe85033b70cd7e4e1eb4a8f264e57f4f864f6d94a67d0eeb3f57e497dc96a5d", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The UK Met Office announces between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-10 that summer 2026 was the warmest summer on record for the UK in its national temperature series.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if a Met Office publication dated between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-10 states summer 2026 set the UK record for warmest summer in its series.", "deadline": "2026-09-14", "citations": [ 40 ], "failure_condition": "The Met Office seasonal statement does not appear within the window, or it does not declare summer 2026 the warmest on record.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-11T22:07:56Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260811-16" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-42", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:11:07.652021+00:00", "seal_sha256": "70590b2913f44c1dc334c41bba4de0d39845ae700e85e0c19f65c037ca746e04", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Russian authorities transfer Bashar al-Assad to Syrian government custody between 2026-08-12 and 2027-01-31.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if two of Reuters, AP, AFP report that Assad was transferred from Russia into Syrian government custody with transfer date between 2026-08-12 and 2027-01-31.", "deadline": "2027-02-03", "citations": [ 53, 98, 135 ], "failure_condition": "Assad remains outside Syrian government custody throughout the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-11T22:07:56Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260811-17" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-43", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:11:07.652030+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ac589699e67ef345ef38259a9b3eb47466c961698345d69d219330a55b39666c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one CVE whose vendorProject is Fortinet or Schneider Electric, with dateAdded between 2026-08-12 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed holds at least one entry with vendorProject Fortinet or Schneider Electric and a dateAdded value between 2026-08-12 and 2026-10-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 33, 34 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry from either vendor carries a dateAdded value inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-11T22:07:56Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260811-18" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-44", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:11:08.379380+00:00", "seal_sha256": "aea3032d34c2095c21f5b4548cbda7a9d914496c582d22212beb4635fa209e84", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog adds at least one new Microsoft SharePoint Server CVE, with dateAdded between 2026-08-12 and 2026-10-16.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if a KEV entry whose product field names SharePoint carries a dateAdded between 2026-08-12 and 2026-10-16 inclusive and was absent from the catalog on 2026-08-11.", "deadline": "2026-10-20", "citations": [ 16, 23 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV catalog gains no SharePoint entry with a dateAdded inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-11T22:07:56Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260811-19" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-45", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:11:08.379398+00:00", "seal_sha256": "86c74eda0a7faa8cba254985d36e335679781510bb8e70992e3269de1e3ad483", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The US Treasury designates at least one person or entity for facilitating North Korean arms or missile transfers to Russia, with the action dated between 2026-08-12 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if an OFAC press release or SDN list update dated inside the window names DPRK-to-Russia arms, missile, or munitions transfer as a basis for the designation.", "deadline": "2026-12-03", "citations": [ 92, 109 ], "failure_condition": "No OFAC action inside the window cites DPRK-to-Russia arms or missile transfer as a designation basis.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-11T22:07:56Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260811-20" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-46", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:11:08.379409+00:00", "seal_sha256": "bc315563c903fb3e7ea3a814f2d5bc8d206231bfcea7d2c67ca21c02c0bd77d8", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "United States and Iranian officials hold a publicly acknowledged direct bilateral meeting between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if a US executive branch statement and an Iranian foreign ministry statement both confirm a direct bilateral meeting held inside the window, and two of Reuters, AP, AFP report it.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 63, 82 ], "failure_condition": "No direct US-Iran bilateral meeting held inside the window is confirmed by both governments.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-11T22:07:56Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260811-21" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-47", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:11:08.379417+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fa53a8d3f02b4c89c94fa632c5ad02d51f4bd6adca1d39e5b5509e0cea39225c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "NYMEX front-month WTI crude futures settle at or above 95.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "economics", "probability": 18, "resolution": "TRUE if the CME published settlement price for the front-month WTI contract is 95.00 or higher on any trading day between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 63, 82 ], "failure_condition": "Every front-month WTI settlement inside the window prints below 95.00 dollars.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.1818, "n": 11, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-11T22:07:56Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260811-22" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-48", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:11:08.379424+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4fbf085046494c4f8ac1e0f5e362c1816050ca9d3a3d3e3f1dbcc151894b3be8", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The New York Fed Household Debt and Credit Report for Q3 2026 reports aggregate credit card balances above 1.26 trillion US dollars.", "domain": "economics", "probability": 18, "resolution": "TRUE if the Q3 2026 report published on newyorkfed.org states an aggregate credit card balance greater than 1.26 trillion dollars, published on or before the deadline.", "deadline": "2026-11-20", "citations": [ 80 ], "failure_condition": "The Q3 2026 report shows credit card balances at or below 1.26 trillion dollars, or no such report exists by the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.1818, "n": 11, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-11T22:07:56Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260811-23" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-49", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:11:08.379431+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5d70e170fa10e983a419cc82fb4992acddac0475197cb3e63d39f673d8818141", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Thailand adopts a cabinet resolution or statutory amendment permanently tightening civilian firearm permit rules, adopted between 2026-08-12 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if a Thai government announcement plus reporting by two of Reuters, AP, AFP, Bangkok Post confirm a cabinet resolution or Firearms Act amendment adopted inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 12 ], "failure_condition": "No Thai cabinet resolution or statutory amendment tightening firearm permits is adopted inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-11T22:07:56Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260811-24" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-50", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:11:08.379437+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3e949505edfbf24ebe5f29118e1fdd16562b392d934daf818c206e4db951aeda", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The USGS catalog lists at least one magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake within 300 km of USGS event us6000tjl2, with origin time between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if the USGS FDSN event query returns at least one M6.0 or greater event within 300 km of the us6000tjl2 epicenter with origin time inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 39, 51 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS catalog holds no M6.0 or greater event meeting both the radius and the origin-time criteria.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-11T22:07:56Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260811-25" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-51", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:11:08.379444+00:00", "seal_sha256": "36ae8ee782c8459ae527bd4a49b3dd215359077bda1212bb6546adfa2d8128c3", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "CISA will add a Microsoft SharePoint remote-code-execution entry to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog, with the event occurring between 2026-08-11 and 2026-08-25, per items 16 and 23.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog lists a Microsoft SharePoint RCE entry with dateAdded between 2026-08-11 and 2026-08-25; FALSE if no such entry exists by the deadline.", "deadline": "2026-08-27", "citations": [ 16, 23 ], "failure_condition": "No Microsoft SharePoint RCE vulnerability appears in the CISA KEV catalog with a dateAdded value in the stated window by the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-11T22:07:56Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260811-26" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-52", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[AMBIGUOUS] duplicate of -0811-26, same fact, same key <<<", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:11:09.762689+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9a834f7259d10587fb45f7c043c44de9ac284981949a3a0dcd79aad3a1f8d9bd", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "operator", "verdicts": { "claude": "AMBIGUOUS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Duplicate of KKR-20260811-26: SharePoint CVE-2026-55040 added to KEV 08-18, cataloged as weak authentication." } }, { "statement": "A US water or energy utility beyond those in items 33, 34, and 37 will publicly disclose a new ransomware incident, occurring between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-08.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if BleepingComputer, The Hacker News, or a CISA advisory reports a new confirmed US water- or energy-utility ransomware incident dated 2026-08-11 to 2026-09-08, confirmed by 2026-09-10; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-10", "citations": [ 33, 34, 37 ], "failure_condition": "No new US water- or energy-utility ransomware incident beyond the cited items is confirmed within the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-11T22:07:56Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260811-27" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-53", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:11:09.762706+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3d2162e12b3a61cc432236eaa19df697716af086a30c87d5f1d54d3c0806e051", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "USGS will record an aftershock of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 100 km of the M7.4 mainshock in item 39, occurring between 2026-08-11 and 2026-08-22.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if USGS lists an M6.0+ event within 100 km of us6000tjl2 with an origin time between 2026-08-11 and 2026-08-22; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-08-24", "citations": [ 39 ], "failure_condition": "USGS records no M6.0 or greater event within 100 km of the epicenter of the mainshock during the stated window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-11T22:07:56Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260811-28" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-54", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] Wikipedia summary of the 2026 Colombia earthquake (updated Aug 25, 2026, citing USGS/ANSS and the Colombian Geological Survey) states the M7.4 mainshock of Aug 10 was followed by more than 100 aftershocks, the largest an mb 5.0 at 08:18 COT on Aug 10; CBS News/USGS (Aug 10, 2026) and Seismosoft (Aug 2026) likewise report the largest aftershock at M5.0 or M4.8; no news or agency report of an M6.0 or greater aftershock near us6000tjl2 between Aug 11 and Aug 22 was found.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:11:09.762717+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3963fca19b92772d9f680b10247739e74373a81079228e39e89f027f3641936d", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": null }, "evidence": "Wikipedia summary of the 2026 Colombia earthquake (updated Aug 25, 2026, citing USGS/ANSS and the Colombian Geological Survey) states the M7.4 mainshock of Aug 10 was followed by more than 100 aftershocks, the largest an mb 5.0 at 08:18 COT on Aug 10; CBS News/USGS (Aug 10, 2026) and Seismosoft (Aug 2026) likewise report the largest aftershock at M5.0 or M4.8; no news or agency report of an M6.0 or greater aftershock near us6000tjl2 between Aug 11 and Aug 22 was found." } }, { "statement": "CAL FIRE will report the Big Sur-area wildfire from item 41 at 50 percent containment or higher, with the milestone reached between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-01.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if the CAL FIRE incident page for the fire in item 41 shows containment at or above 50 percent at any point between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-01; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-03", "citations": [ 41 ], "failure_condition": "The CAL FIRE incident report shows containment for this fire remains below 50 percent as of the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-11T22:07:56Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260811-29" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-55", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:11:09.762726+00:00", "seal_sha256": "160a25d1ab1c54e43ecd1e117e9f7dca84f4fd9ae75d864c771216f131a08223", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "WTI crude oil will settle at or above 90.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-08, extending the move in item 63.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 18, "resolution": "TRUE if the NYMEX WTI front-month settlement price is 90.00 USD per barrel or higher on any trading day between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-08; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-09", "citations": [ 63 ], "failure_condition": "The NYMEX WTI front-month contract never settles at or above 90.00 USD per barrel during the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.1818, "n": 11, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-11T22:07:56Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260811-30" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-56", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:11:09.762733+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9d232c687036b4b3c4c793785b6dd4b52aa11b0f7253eb571469672551a70724", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Intel common stock will close at or above 100.00 USD on the Nasdaq on at least one trading day between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-10, following the offering in item 84.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 18, "resolution": "TRUE if Nasdaq closing price data show INTC at or above 100.00 USD on any session between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-10; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-11", "citations": [ 84 ], "failure_condition": "The INTC Nasdaq closing price stays below 100.00 USD on every trading day in the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.1818, "n": 11, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-11T22:07:56Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260811-31" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-57", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:11:09.762739+00:00", "seal_sha256": "319b632c84ccdaf58593435b76e23b8d95c46ddac3b313cbfed830a15c6c06a2", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "A named wire service will report a new clash between Nigerian security forces and non-state armed groups in northwestern Nigeria with 10 or more combined fatalities, occurring between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-01, per item 99.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if Reuters, AP, AFP, or Al Jazeera reports a new northwestern-Nigeria clash with 10 or more combined fatalities dated 2026-08-11 to 2026-09-01; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-03", "citations": [ 99 ], "failure_condition": "No wire-reported northwestern Nigeria clash in the window reaches 10 combined fatalities.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-11T22:07:56Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260811-32" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-58", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:11:09.762746+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0532356578859a9762097fe0506700208cf47ae3b40e8a1e12e0281917d91602", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Independent trackers will corroborate a Russian strike using North Korean-supplied missiles against Ukraine, beyond the claim in items 92 and 109, occurring between 2026-08-11 and 2026-08-29.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if two or more of ISW, Reuters, or AP attribute a Russian strike dated 2026-08-11 to 2026-08-29 to North Korean-supplied missiles; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-08-31", "citations": [ 92, 109 ], "failure_condition": "No two independent trackers attribute a Russian strike in the window to North Korean-supplied missiles.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-11T22:07:56Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260811-33" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-59", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[AMBIGUOUS] duplicate of -0811-33", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:11:09.762752+00:00", "seal_sha256": "bda0a36ca31e2cf7306925751c1ca61387707e16c8f719f52599b1831d52e0b7", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "operator", "verdicts": { "claude": "AMBIGUOUS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Duplicate of KKR-20260811-33: the 08-11 NK-attributed Zaporizhzhia strike is the in-window candidate, pending the items 92 and 109 baseline." } }, { "statement": "Hungarian President Baka, elected as an Orban critic per items 122, 124, and 125, will decline to sign or will refer to the Constitutional Court a government-backed bill, between 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-16.", "domain": "political", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if Reuters, AP, or DW reports Baka refusing signature or referring a Fidesz-backed bill to the Constitutional Court between 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-16; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-11-18", "citations": [ 122, 124, 125 ], "failure_condition": "Baka signs every government-backed bill presented to him during the window without referral or refusal.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-11T22:07:56Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260811-34" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-60", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:11:09.762759+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1787adf8d778b265d1aae00f19b9c4a18811941094def594189a70b1d94fb450", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "A US federal agency will file new public criminal or civil charges against Gautam Adani or a named Adani Group executive, occurring between 2026-08-11 and 2026-11-09, despite the dismissal in item 9.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if DOJ, SEC, or another US federal agency announces new public charges against Adani or an Adani Group executive dated 2026-08-11 to 2026-11-09, confirmed by 2026-11-11; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-11-11", "citations": [ 9 ], "failure_condition": "No US federal agency files new public charges against Adani or a named Adani Group executive during the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-11T22:07:56Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260811-35" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-11_1750.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260811-61", "date_issued": "2026-08-11", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-11_1750.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-11T22:11:09.762769+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ee3f7057fb0ab057b34ed60773835aedc7975327af62f58e28786d158f19e95a", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "A major earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or higher occurs in the South Sandwich Islands region between 2026-08-13 and 2026-08-19, with a depth of less than 50km.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 32, "resolution": "The USGS Significant Quakes database records an event with magnitude ≥6.0, depth <50km, and location within the South Sandwich Islands region between 2026-08-13 and 2026-08-19.", "deadline": "2026-08-22", "citations": [ 48 ], "failure_condition": "No such event is recorded in the USGS Significant Quakes database during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260812-01", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] USGS recorded an M6.0 South Sandwich Islands region earthquake at 11:47 UTC on Aug 12, 2026 at 10 km depth (event us6000tk74; The Watchers Aug 12, 2026), which is the day before the Aug 13-19 window opens; no USGS event, Watchers report or EMSC coverage of a second M6.0-or-greater shallow event in the region between Aug 13 and Aug 19 was found.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T15:19:55.336813+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d0e9ec5c49913125ed51f29b3460b9bd7ad35736d064bdbf3c53e5dc8b2d8070", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [48] carry the claim's operative terms (depth, earthquake, island, magnitude, region, sandwich); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "USGS recorded an M6.0 South Sandwich Islands region earthquake at 11:47 UTC on Aug 12, 2026 at 10 km depth (event us6000tk74; The Watchers Aug 12, 2026), which is the day before the Aug 13-19 window opens; no USGS event, Watchers report or EMSC coverage of a second M6.0-or-greater shallow event in the region between Aug 13 and Aug 19 was found." } }, { "statement": "A cyberattack exploiting the vulnerability CVE-2026-20349 in Cisco Secure Firewall ASA/FTD is confirmed by two independent sources (e.g., BleepingComputer, The Hacker News) between 2026-08-13 and 2026-08-19.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 38, "resolution": "Two independent, non-aligned sources (e.g., BleepingComputer, The Hacker News) report a confirmed exploitation of CVE-2026-20349 in Cisco Secure Firewall ASA/FTD between 2026-08-13 and 2026-08-19.", "deadline": "2026-08-22", "citations": [ 1 ], "failure_condition": "No such confirmed exploitation is reported by two independent sources during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260812-02", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Cisco advisory 2026-08-11 confirmed active exploitation of CVE-2026-20349 in ASA/FTD; CISA added it to KEV 08-11 with an 08-14 federal deadline; Qualys ThreatProtect 08-13 and The Hacker News August 2026 both reported the in-the-wild exploitation, with SOCRadar and SOC Prime also covering it mid-August.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T15:19:55.336836+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1270da303014d8b2e34ea93e1d851010c7adfb64118f7ae714a741c286a40223", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable — defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Cisco advisory 2026-08-11 confirmed active exploitation of CVE-2026-20349 in ASA/FTD; CISA added it to KEV 08-11 with an 08-14 federal deadline; Qualys ThreatProtect 08-13 and The Hacker News August 2026 both reported the in-the-wild exploitation, with SOCRadar and SOC Prime also covering it mid-August." } }, { "statement": "A coordinated cyberattack targeting U.S. water utilities is confirmed by two independent sources (e.g., NPR News, CISA) between 2026-08-13 and 2026-08-19.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 26, "resolution": "Two independent sources (e.g., NPR News, CISA) report a confirmed cyberattack targeting U.S. water utilities between 2026-08-13 and 2026-08-19.", "deadline": "2026-08-22", "citations": [ 54 ], "failure_condition": "No such confirmed cyberattack is reported by two independent sources during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260812-03", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "Report-date reading: FBI/EPA-confirmed campaign, in-window reports 13-14 Aug; the intrusions themselves began 26-27 Jul.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T15:19:55.336848+00:00", "seal_sha256": "02c93d057ba0e7c983421b5ea1e61542d9509ee7c840bfed706b44946a3fc50c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable — defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Foreign Policy (Aug 13, 2026) reported water providers in at least seven states, possibly a dozen, were hit by cyberattacks confirmed by the FBI, EPA and CISA, with operators locked out of PLCs; TechCrunch (Aug 14, 2026) separately reported the FBI-confirmed campaign across roughly a dozen states including Minnesota, Arkansas, Georgia, New Jersey and Michigan; NPR (Aug 12, 2026) and Cybersecurity Dive (Aug 20, 2026) bracket the window with the same confirmed campaign." } }, { "statement": "A major offensive operation by Iran or its proxies in the Israel-Gaza-Levant theatre is confirmed by two hostile sides (IL, PS, AXIS) between 2026-08-13 and 2026-08-19.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "Two hostile sides (IL, PS, or AXIS) confirm a major offensive operation in the Israel-Gaza-Levant theatre between 2026-08-13 and 2026-08-19, with at least one dedicated report from each side.", "deadline": "2026-08-22", "citations": [ 100 ], "failure_condition": "No such confirmed offensive operation is reported by two hostile sides during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260812-04", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] CNN live coverage (Aug 15-16, 2026) and Alma Research (Aug 15, 2026) document the only in-window Iran-proxy action in the theatre: a Hezbollah attack on an IDF position on the Ali al-Taher ridge around Aug 14 that seriously wounded three soldiers, answered by Israeli strikes killing at least 11 in southern Lebanon and a senior Hezbollah commander; CNN (Aug 16) described a pause in US-Iran strikes, with Houthi activity confined to Yemen ports and Red Sea shipping.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T15:19:55.336856+00:00", "seal_sha256": "12467c3fcd2e764e56bb986dceb19c6ea0a4f85789563bb3c9df14a138d8514a", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable — defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "CNN live coverage (Aug 15-16, 2026) and Alma Research (Aug 15, 2026) document the only in-window Iran-proxy action in the theatre: a Hezbollah attack on an IDF position on the Ali al-Taher ridge around Aug 14 that seriously wounded three soldiers, answered by Israeli strikes killing at least 11 in southern Lebanon and a senior Hezbollah commander; CNN (Aug 16) described a pause in US-Iran strikes, with Houthi activity confined to Yemen ports and Red Sea shipping." } }, { "statement": "At least one attack on a commercial vessel occurs in the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, or Gulf of Aden between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 85, "resolution": "TRUE if UKMTO or US CENTCOM publicly reports at least one attack on a commercial vessel in the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, or Gulf of Aden occurring between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 100, 87 ], "failure_condition": "No attack on a commercial vessel occurs in the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, or Gulf of Aden between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-30.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-05", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:17:08.129186+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5d8f6b375654c7d4bb82aeacae15b178342ec3b47597c949bfcc34870f499201", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited priors ground the Red Sea attack pattern (Houthi strike in record); the specific window outcome is not stated. KEYED under the attribution doctrine (2026-08-04).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "A vulnerability affecting VMware vCenter Server is added to the CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 50, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog contains an entry naming VMware vCenter Server with dateAdded between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-02", "citations": [ 22 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog contains no VMware vCenter Server entry with dateAdded between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-30.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-06", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:17:08.129205+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f1f1b0f087778c71b2d78e25110f8f5f0c0d176196aad6d109884414fd77059e", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [22] carry the claim's operative terms (exploited, vcenter, vmware, vulnerabilitie, vulnerability); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "A Microsoft Defender vulnerability is added to the CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog contains an entry whose product field names Microsoft Defender with dateAdded between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 21, 25 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog contains no Microsoft Defender entry with dateAdded between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-30.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-07", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:17:08.129215+00:00", "seal_sha256": "89084c7d901ed0dbeba95415a77772342fb8ea9c54d4b34a7e9baa0483158cdc", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [21, 25] carry the claim's operative terms (defender, microsoft); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "USGS records an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 300 km of USGS event us6000tjl2 with origin time between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-12 UTC.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one event of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 300 km of event us6000tjl2 with origin time between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-12 UTC.", "deadline": "2026-10-14", "citations": [ 41, 38 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS catalog lists no event of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 300 km of event us6000tjl2 with origin time between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-12 UTC.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-08", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:17:08.129223+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a57c6665f2067741fde8e030e87db7094260c4f03713907f6ebbc34565178974", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited record supplies the us6000tjl2 mainshock and rescue coverage only; no M6+ event within 300 km appears in any cited prior. Outcome not deducible from the cited record — operator-claimed KEYLESS.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Russian authorities seize or detain a commercial vessel flagged in or owned by an EU or UK entity between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-12.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if at least two of Reuters, AP, and AFP report Russian seizure or detention of an EU or UK flagged or owned commercial vessel occurring between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-12.", "deadline": "2026-10-14", "citations": [ 104 ], "failure_condition": "No seizure or detention by Russian authorities of an EU or UK flagged or owned commercial vessel occurs between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-12.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-09", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:17:08.129230+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fa94f57d19db18caf954c5f4bb8489295af066fa9523fbc08ae87c751fca2023", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [104] carry the claim's operative terms (seizure, vessel); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The government of Iraq announces a signed agreement or decree providing for disarmament or integration of Iran-aligned militia groups between 2026-08-13 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 15, "resolution": "TRUE if at least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, or Al Jazeera report an Iraqi government announcement of a signed disarmament or integration agreement or decree covering Iran-aligned militias between 2026-08-13 and 2026-11-30.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 98, 52 ], "failure_condition": "No signed agreement or decree on disarmament or integration of Iran-aligned militias is announced by the Iraqi government between 2026-08-13 and 2026-11-30.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-10", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:17:08.129237+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5eb37e8a2072e5c6f1d3a1f9ca574627b0c9ead08a7e937fe18dab4a6bb992da", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [52, 98] carry the claim's operative terms (disarmament, iran-aligned, iraq, iraqi); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "North Korea conducts at least one further ballistic missile launch between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-20.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 65, "resolution": "True if South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff confirm a North Korean ballistic missile launch dated between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-20, carried by at least two of Yonhap, Reuters, and Associated Press.", "deadline": "2026-09-23", "citations": [ 86 ], "failure_condition": "North Korea launches no ballistic missile during that window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-11", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:17:09.308597+00:00", "seal_sha256": "578a453f9d7b02e4cb277533380988ec337eff1e0b1665883346b53fda8e6742", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [86] carry the claim's operative terms (korea, korea', korean, missile, north); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Russian forces seize or detain at least one commercial vessel flagged in or operated from an EU member state between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 22, "resolution": "True if at least two of Reuters, Associated Press, and the flag state government confirm Russian seizure or detention of a named EU-flagged or EU-operated commercial vessel between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-15.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 104 ], "failure_condition": "Russia seizes or detains no EU-flagged or EU-operated commercial vessel during that window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-12", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:17:09.308616+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0bae089972090c8d5ec4f59a48b39202083553e5bdb5778c5cf434af37236f9f", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [104] carry the claim's operative terms (seizure, vessel); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog gains an entry naming Microsoft SharePoint Server or VMware vCenter Server with a date-added value between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 45, "resolution": "True if the CISA KEV JSON feed contains an entry whose product field names SharePoint Server or vCenter Server with a dateAdded between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 16, 22 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV catalog holds no SharePoint Server or vCenter Server entry with a dateAdded inside that range.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-13", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:17:09.308627+00:00", "seal_sha256": "cc848260923fb426818c9de05cdcdbed1da2b778b726bbd3b8f8d331fa9ca2b7", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [16, 22] carry the claim's operative terms (exploited, gain, microsoft, sharepoint, vcenter, vmware); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The Electoral Commission of Zambia declares Hakainde Hichilema elected president in the first round, announced between 2026-08-13 and 2026-08-20.", "domain": "political", "probability": 70, "resolution": "True if the ECZ formally declares Hichilema president-elect between 2026-08-13 and 2026-08-20 with more than 50 percent of valid votes, avoiding a runoff.", "deadline": "2026-08-24", "citations": [ 130, 131 ], "failure_condition": "The ECZ declares another candidate elected, announces a presidential runoff, or issues no first-round presidential declaration by 2026-08-20.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-14", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] Al Jazeera (Aug 18, 2026) reported the Electoral Commission of Zambia declaring Hakainde Hichilema president-elect early on Aug 18 with 2,965,326 votes, roughly 60-61 percent of valid votes, against 1,856,217 for Brian Mundubile; AP via The Washington Times (Aug 18, 2026) and APA News (Aug 18, 2026) carried the same declaration, and ECZ chair Mwangala Zaloumis was quoted declaring Hichilema president-elect this 18th day of August 2026.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:17:09.308636+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ab9d3232e8bbf2093b6144b296fe0bfe637fed3dd99b7c0b4ef2168f5d750fdc", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [130, 131] carry the claim's operative terms (elected, electoral, president, president-elect, zambia); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": null }, "evidence": "Al Jazeera (Aug 18, 2026) reported the Electoral Commission of Zambia declaring Hakainde Hichilema president-elect early on Aug 18 with 2,965,326 votes, roughly 60-61 percent of valid votes, against 1,856,217 for Brian Mundubile; AP via The Washington Times (Aug 18, 2026) and APA News (Aug 18, 2026) carried the same declaration, and ECZ chair Mwangala Zaloumis was quoted declaring Hichilema president-elect this 18th day of August 2026." } }, { "statement": "The USGS earthquake catalog records at least one magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake located in Colombia with origin time between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 28, "resolution": "True if USGS ANSS ComCat lists an event of magnitude 6.0 or above whose place field names Colombia with origin time between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-15.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 38, 41, 60 ], "failure_condition": "ComCat lists no magnitude 6.0 or greater event in Colombia with origin time inside that window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-15", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:17:09.308645+00:00", "seal_sha256": "590df553de7a3773df197679bb417705dd525614ba14c14a938115dc09b1c3ec", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "FLIPPED from machine KEYED (basis was the token 'colombia'). Cited record supplies the mainshock; no M6+ in-Colombia event inside the window appears in any cited prior. Prior grounds the subject, not the outcome — operator-claimed KEYLESS for family consistency.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "A CVE tied to the Microsoft Defender ShieldBreak privilege-escalation flaw disclosed around 11 Aug 2026 will be added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-02.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog lists a CVE matching the ShieldBreak Defender flaw with dateAdded between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-02, checked 2026-09-04; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 21, 25 ], "failure_condition": "No CVE matching the ShieldBreak Defender flaw appears in the CISA KEV catalog with a dateAdded in the stated window as of the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-16", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:17:10.143676+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e615ffcf396fe2b851c6e2e3c520a41859d0a5858ff989883eaf897cd4ddd3d4", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [21, 25] carry the claim's operative terms (defender, microsoft, privilege-escalation, shieldbreak); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "A Houthi or other Iran-aligned attack will kill at least one person in Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, or Strait of Hormuz shipping-lane activity between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-02, beyond the fatalities already reported 12 Aug 2026.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 55, "resolution": "TRUE if two or more wire services report a fatal Houthi or Iran-aligned attack on shipping or shipping-adjacent targets in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, or Strait of Hormuz corridor between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-02, checked 2026-09-04.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 100, 95 ], "failure_condition": "No two-source wire report of a fatal Houthi or Iran-aligned attack on shipping-lane targets in that corridor is dated within the stated window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-17", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:17:10.143699+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ac53512dc1027faa7ee9d6508113ecdf550db43bd53b17a35ff1e004c9c29545", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [95, 100] carry the claim's operative terms (attack, fatal, fatalitie, gulf, hormuz, houthi); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Russia will board, detain, or seize a European Union-flagged or EU-owned commercial vessel between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-02, consistent with the tit-for-tat seizure warning reported 12 Aug 2026.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 27, "resolution": "TRUE if two or more wire services or hostile-side channels confirm Russian authorities boarded, detained, or seized an EU-flagged or EU-owned vessel between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-02, checked 2026-09-04.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 104 ], "failure_condition": "No two-source confirmation of a Russian boarding, detention, or seizure of an EU-flagged or EU-owned vessel dated within the stated window exists at the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-18", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:17:10.143710+00:00", "seal_sha256": "12587b3a5f43006a424da4c975d91360823d1b4f7dcc585d6b585fae8d8920a5", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [104] carry the claim's operative terms (european, seizure, tit-for-tat, vessel, warning); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Hakainde Hichilema will be declared winner of Zambia's 13 August 2026 presidential election outright in the first round, with more than 50 percent of valid votes, by 2026-08-21.", "domain": "political", "probability": 58, "resolution": "TRUE if the Electoral Commission of Zambia declares Hichilema the first-round winner with over 50 percent of valid votes by 2026-08-21; a runoff or another winner resolves FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-08-21", "citations": [ 130, 131 ], "failure_condition": "The ECZ calls a runoff, declares a different winner, or has issued no declared presidential result at all by 2026-08-21.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-19", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] Al Jazeera (Aug 18, 2026) reported the Electoral Commission of Zambia declaring Hakainde Hichilema president-elect early on Aug 18 with 2,965,326 votes, roughly 60-61 percent of valid votes, against 1,856,217 for Brian Mundubile; AP via The Washington Times (Aug 18, 2026) and APA News (Aug 18, 2026) carried the same declaration, and ECZ chair Mwangala Zaloumis was quoted declaring Hichilema president-elect this 18th day of August 2026.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:17:10.143719+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9e43d0eb0b540d5adf78bf144120245513fc168a27087a2790556cd5a4e2a372", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [130, 131] carry the claim's operative terms (election, electoral, presidential, zambia, zambia'); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Al Jazeera (Aug 18, 2026) reported the Electoral Commission of Zambia declaring Hakainde Hichilema president-elect early on Aug 18 with 2,965,326 votes, roughly 60-61 percent of valid votes, against 1,856,217 for Brian Mundubile; AP via The Washington Times (Aug 18, 2026) and APA News (Aug 18, 2026) carried the same declaration, and ECZ chair Mwangala Zaloumis was quoted declaring Hichilema president-elect this 18th day of August 2026." } }, { "statement": "A magnitude 6.0 or greater aftershock will be recorded by USGS within the epicentral region of the 12 Aug 2026 M7.4 Colombia earthquake between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-11.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 42, "resolution": "TRUE if USGS lists a magnitude 6.0-plus event within 200 km of the M7.4 Colombia mainshock, dated between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-11, checked 2026-09-14; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-14", "citations": [ 38, 41 ], "failure_condition": "No USGS-listed magnitude 6.0 or greater event within 200 km of the mainshock falls within the stated window as of the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-20", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:17:10.143728+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1332655f43ec22eaef741e1b3f690bfa8dd033f13abbb0112f97c829b10cffae", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "FLIPPED from machine KEYED (basis was the token 'colombia'). Cited record supplies the mainshock and rescue coverage; no recorded M6+ aftershock in any cited prior. Prior grounds the subject, not the outcome — operator-claimed KEYLESS for family consistency.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The Egyptian student whose kidnapping was livestreamed, per the report dated 12 Aug 2026, will be confirmed located, released, or recovered by two or more sources between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-02.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 45, "resolution": "TRUE if two or more news sources confirm the student has been located, released, or recovered, dated between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-02, checked 2026-09-04; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 11 ], "failure_condition": "No two-source confirmation that the student was located, released, or recovered is dated within the stated window as of the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-21", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:17:10.143735+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ca0d529cf721b84936d39365fcc1e02b6ed5038ae63ced743b1f1ffe16f66dd7", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [11] carry the claim's operative terms (egyptian, kidnapping, livestreamed, student); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "At least one attack on a commercial vessel occurs in the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, or Gulf of Aden between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if UKMTO or US CENTCOM publicly reports at least one attack on a commercial vessel in the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, or Gulf of Aden occurring between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 100, 87 ], "failure_condition": "No attack on a commercial vessel occurs in the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, or Gulf of Aden between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-30.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-12T17:17:10Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260812-05" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-22", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:20:47.501573+00:00", "seal_sha256": "49a1c596aed5adf1850684a7adf4b2c28efbb88b3186c2aa7920c76a9fb13210", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "A vulnerability affecting VMware vCenter Server is added to the CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog contains an entry naming VMware vCenter Server with dateAdded between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-02", "citations": [ 22 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog contains no VMware vCenter Server entry with dateAdded between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-30.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-12T17:17:10Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260812-06" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-23", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:20:47.501594+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fe5f738a6124d03900fa184de122c1c37f09fa9cfc443af2c74600b2fec30cf6", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "A Microsoft Defender vulnerability is added to the CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog contains an entry whose product field names Microsoft Defender with dateAdded between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 21, 25 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog contains no Microsoft Defender entry with dateAdded between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-30.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-12T17:17:10Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260812-07" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-24", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:20:47.501605+00:00", "seal_sha256": "393fa050078d410190f9155df869ff554beaaddcbb0b0307183de97141db8923", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "USGS records an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 300 km of USGS event us6000tjl2 with origin time between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-12 UTC.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if the USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one event of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 300 km of event us6000tjl2 with origin time between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-12 UTC.", "deadline": "2026-10-14", "citations": [ 41, 38 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS catalog lists no event of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 300 km of event us6000tjl2 with origin time between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-12 UTC.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-12T17:17:10Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260812-08" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-25", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:20:47.501613+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5f1603fb3612a23cd6512d2bb4288ad47689d6d6930fc7e5a64aafceb6404d6d", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Russian authorities seize or detain a commercial vessel flagged in or owned by an EU or UK entity between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-12.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if at least two of Reuters, AP, and AFP report Russian seizure or detention of an EU or UK flagged or owned commercial vessel occurring between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-12.", "deadline": "2026-10-14", "citations": [ 104 ], "failure_condition": "No seizure or detention by Russian authorities of an EU or UK flagged or owned commercial vessel occurs between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-12.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-12T17:17:10Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260812-09" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-26", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:20:47.501622+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a9dded47820878a74c78564a75dc3637a1f40e13183c5a235eef5c7b3b0d0953", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The government of Iraq announces a signed agreement or decree providing for disarmament or integration of Iran-aligned militia groups between 2026-08-13 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if at least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, or Al Jazeera report an Iraqi government announcement of a signed disarmament or integration agreement or decree covering Iran-aligned militias between 2026-08-13 and 2026-11-30.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 98, 52 ], "failure_condition": "No signed agreement or decree on disarmament or integration of Iran-aligned militias is announced by the Iraqi government between 2026-08-13 and 2026-11-30.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-12T17:17:10Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260812-10" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-27", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:20:47.501629+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5cdedd67c89021ff4b1e9388eba884ace043a13e1d69ab82170033032daf857c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "North Korea conducts at least one further ballistic missile launch between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-20.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 33, "resolution": "True if South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff confirm a North Korean ballistic missile launch dated between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-20, carried by at least two of Yonhap, Reuters, and Associated Press.", "deadline": "2026-09-23", "citations": [ 86 ], "failure_condition": "North Korea launches no ballistic missile during that window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-12T17:17:10Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260812-11" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-28", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:20:48.252278+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6e0d44637b84bbe832cb9451985902683c92cf243edf47d445e5d80c50185f54", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Russian forces seize or detain at least one commercial vessel flagged in or operated from an EU member state between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 33, "resolution": "True if at least two of Reuters, Associated Press, and the flag state government confirm Russian seizure or detention of a named EU-flagged or EU-operated commercial vessel between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-15.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 104 ], "failure_condition": "Russia seizes or detains no EU-flagged or EU-operated commercial vessel during that window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-12T17:17:10Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260812-12" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-29", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:20:48.252297+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fef6d62cc598b3b0ceede7f2356431e4f0fdac41817a97a382fb57ac22a5fb64", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog gains an entry naming Microsoft SharePoint Server or VMware vCenter Server with a date-added value between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "True if the CISA KEV JSON feed contains an entry whose product field names SharePoint Server or vCenter Server with a dateAdded between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 16, 22 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV catalog holds no SharePoint Server or vCenter Server entry with a dateAdded inside that range.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-12T17:17:10Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260812-13" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-30", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:20:48.252307+00:00", "seal_sha256": "26d3e5346180ec339496d2d0ad8af260f9b43dfbe023fcf759753cb44a73ee95", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The Electoral Commission of Zambia declares Hakainde Hichilema elected president in the first round, announced between 2026-08-13 and 2026-08-20.", "domain": "political", "probability": 33, "resolution": "True if the ECZ formally declares Hichilema president-elect between 2026-08-13 and 2026-08-20 with more than 50 percent of valid votes, avoiding a runoff.", "deadline": "2026-08-24", "citations": [ 130, 131 ], "failure_condition": "The ECZ declares another candidate elected, announces a presidential runoff, or issues no first-round presidential declaration by 2026-08-20.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-12T17:17:10Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260812-14" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-31", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] Al Jazeera (Aug 18, 2026) reported the Electoral Commission of Zambia declaring Hakainde Hichilema president-elect early on Aug 18 with 2,965,326 votes, roughly 60-61 percent of valid votes, against 1,856,217 for Brian Mundubile; AP via The Washington Times (Aug 18, 2026) and APA News (Aug 18, 2026) carried the same declaration, and ECZ chair Mwangala Zaloumis was quoted declaring Hichilema president-elect this 18th day of August 2026.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:20:48.252316+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e1fbdc9dd32b74e9727f8da55b11d4626ac145f8e945f3a21437fd919e1bdb23", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": null }, "evidence": "Al Jazeera (Aug 18, 2026) reported the Electoral Commission of Zambia declaring Hakainde Hichilema president-elect early on Aug 18 with 2,965,326 votes, roughly 60-61 percent of valid votes, against 1,856,217 for Brian Mundubile; AP via The Washington Times (Aug 18, 2026) and APA News (Aug 18, 2026) carried the same declaration, and ECZ chair Mwangala Zaloumis was quoted declaring Hichilema president-elect this 18th day of August 2026." } }, { "statement": "The USGS earthquake catalog records at least one magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake located in Colombia with origin time between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 33, "resolution": "True if USGS ANSS ComCat lists an event of magnitude 6.0 or above whose place field names Colombia with origin time between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-15.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 38, 41, 60 ], "failure_condition": "ComCat lists no magnitude 6.0 or greater event in Colombia with origin time inside that window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-12T17:17:10Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260812-15" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-32", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:20:48.252323+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1a550d8855924075ad6fc931766e2a88bcf5e98ad3a5e99cd10bfb1f766d88c3", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "A CVE tied to the Microsoft Defender ShieldBreak privilege-escalation flaw disclosed around 11 Aug 2026 will be added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-02.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog lists a CVE matching the ShieldBreak Defender flaw with dateAdded between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-02, checked 2026-09-04; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 21, 25 ], "failure_condition": "No CVE matching the ShieldBreak Defender flaw appears in the CISA KEV catalog with a dateAdded in the stated window as of the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-12T17:17:10Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260812-16" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-33", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:20:49.007119+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fa08627f630790bd78d60cd4ae1e390ecf03fe64aab12d2e11a9dc309b783e05", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "A Houthi or other Iran-aligned attack will kill at least one person in Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, or Strait of Hormuz shipping-lane activity between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-02, beyond the fatalities already reported 12 Aug 2026.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if two or more wire services report a fatal Houthi or Iran-aligned attack on shipping or shipping-adjacent targets in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, or Strait of Hormuz corridor between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-02, checked 2026-09-04.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 100, 95 ], "failure_condition": "No two-source wire report of a fatal Houthi or Iran-aligned attack on shipping-lane targets in that corridor is dated within the stated window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-12T17:17:10Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260812-17" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-34", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:20:49.007139+00:00", "seal_sha256": "17bac0cf772f4c1144253af678bc10a6024943b76c45a1e9ca74702068ea2761", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Russia will board, detain, or seize a European Union-flagged or EU-owned commercial vessel between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-02, consistent with the tit-for-tat seizure warning reported 12 Aug 2026.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if two or more wire services or hostile-side channels confirm Russian authorities boarded, detained, or seized an EU-flagged or EU-owned vessel between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-02, checked 2026-09-04.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 104 ], "failure_condition": "No two-source confirmation of a Russian boarding, detention, or seizure of an EU-flagged or EU-owned vessel dated within the stated window exists at the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-12T17:17:10Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260812-18" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-35", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:20:49.007151+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2a004b77626a27c10498d7194b4b9053ed5b29b80f7884be27abfd009afdfb23", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Hakainde Hichilema will be declared winner of Zambia's 13 August 2026 presidential election outright in the first round, with more than 50 percent of valid votes, by 2026-08-21.", "domain": "political", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if the Electoral Commission of Zambia declares Hichilema the first-round winner with over 50 percent of valid votes by 2026-08-21; a runoff or another winner resolves FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-08-21", "citations": [ 130, 131 ], "failure_condition": "The ECZ calls a runoff, declares a different winner, or has issued no declared presidential result at all by 2026-08-21.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-12T17:17:10Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260812-19" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-36", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] Al Jazeera (Aug 18, 2026) reported the Electoral Commission of Zambia declaring Hakainde Hichilema president-elect early on Aug 18 with 2,965,326 votes, roughly 60-61 percent of valid votes, against 1,856,217 for Brian Mundubile; AP via The Washington Times (Aug 18, 2026) and APA News (Aug 18, 2026) carried the same declaration, and ECZ chair Mwangala Zaloumis was quoted declaring Hichilema president-elect this 18th day of August 2026.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:20:49.007158+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a432af6cb67a2cc3242d305ca115dc9672094783976b1a109cf2bdaed5688bf2", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Al Jazeera (Aug 18, 2026) reported the Electoral Commission of Zambia declaring Hakainde Hichilema president-elect early on Aug 18 with 2,965,326 votes, roughly 60-61 percent of valid votes, against 1,856,217 for Brian Mundubile; AP via The Washington Times (Aug 18, 2026) and APA News (Aug 18, 2026) carried the same declaration, and ECZ chair Mwangala Zaloumis was quoted declaring Hichilema president-elect this 18th day of August 2026." } }, { "statement": "A magnitude 6.0 or greater aftershock will be recorded by USGS within the epicentral region of the 12 Aug 2026 M7.4 Colombia earthquake between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-11.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if USGS lists a magnitude 6.0-plus event within 200 km of the M7.4 Colombia mainshock, dated between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-11, checked 2026-09-14; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-14", "citations": [ 38, 41 ], "failure_condition": "No USGS-listed magnitude 6.0 or greater event within 200 km of the mainshock falls within the stated window as of the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-12T17:17:10Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260812-20" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-37", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:20:49.007167+00:00", "seal_sha256": "86bad9aa74c5ae25468ab38a57b33fa26e4753578e2e3bd69fc705604a72cbd8", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The Egyptian student whose kidnapping was livestreamed, per the report dated 12 Aug 2026, will be confirmed located, released, or recovered by two or more sources between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-02.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if two or more news sources confirm the student has been located, released, or recovered, dated between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-02, checked 2026-09-04; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 11 ], "failure_condition": "No two-source confirmation that the student was located, released, or recovered is dated within the stated window as of the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-12T17:17:10Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260812-21" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-12_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260812-38", "date_issued": "2026-08-12", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-12_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-12T17:20:49.007174+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4dd7692aa044c1e859054bdf8d018b6bc72c824324ba375adaf0be9a26c76cc8", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "A drone strike targeting a Russian military installation in Sevastopol occurs between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, resulting in at least one confirmed casualty.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 28, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, and at least one report from a credible source (BBC World, Al Jazeera, or Defense One) confirms a drone strike on a Russian military installation in Sevastopol with at least one confirmed casualty.", "deadline": "2026-08-27", "citations": [ 2, 66 ], "failure_condition": "No report from BBC World, Al Jazeera, or Defense One confirms a drone strike on a Russian military installation in Sevastopol with at least one confirmed casualty between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260813-01", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Documented August KEV additions fall on 08-11 (Cisco) and 08-18 (four-CVE batch); no addition with dateAdded between 08-21 and 08-24 appears in CISA alerts or security press, so the KEV leg of the conjunction fails.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T15:20:40.507559+00:00", "seal_sha256": "eee4fa4018733533905d8d6498b09bda1fcdc52761a05d2299479e52539ebc06", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable — defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Documented August KEV additions fall on 08-11 (Cisco) and 08-18 (four-CVE batch); no addition with dateAdded between 08-21 and 08-24 appears in CISA alerts or security press, so the KEV leg of the conjunction fails." } }, { "statement": "A major earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or higher occurs in the Pacific Northwest between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, as reported by USGS Significant Quakes.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 18, "resolution": "The USGS Significant Quakes database records an event with magnitude ≥6.0 and epicenter within the Pacific Northwest region (Washington, Oregon, or adjacent offshore) between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-27", "citations": [ 26, 39 ], "failure_condition": "No USGS Significant Quakes record shows an event with magnitude ≥6.0 and epicenter in the Pacific Northwest between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260813-02", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] No magnitude 6.0 or greater Pacific Northwest event during 08-21 to 08-24 appears anywhere in news coverage or quake summaries; such an event in Washington or Oregon would have been major national news.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T15:20:40.507581+00:00", "seal_sha256": "47f357cd17c32e301fd8b0c846b0987d0457fd2a9a60aed2bc5f04aae89cb0df", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [26, 39] carry the claim's operative terms (earthquake, magnitude, quake, significant); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "No magnitude 6.0 or greater Pacific Northwest event during 08-21 to 08-24 appears anywhere in news coverage or quake summaries; such an event in Washington or Oregon would have been major national news." } }, { "statement": "Iran announces a ceasefire with Israel in the Levant Theatre between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, confirmed by at least two independent sources (BBC World and Al Jazeera).", "domain": "political", "probability": 22, "resolution": "At least two independent sources (BBC World and Al Jazeera) report that Iran officially announces a ceasefire with Israel in the Levant Theatre between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-27", "citations": [ 68, 70 ], "failure_condition": "No report from BBC World or Al Jazeera confirms Iran announcing a ceasefire with Israel in the Levant Theatre between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260813-03", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Coverage through the window and after shows the US-Israel war on Iran continuing into its seventh month; AJ 08-30 and CNBC describe the 08-30 exchange as the first flare-up since late July, a lull rather than a declared ceasefire, with Oman corridor diplomacy 08-25 to 08-26.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T15:20:40.507594+00:00", "seal_sha256": "638cacd02dd632f91804968c9bfbfc80c41678173b4786f743b866fd21279edd", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable — defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Coverage through the window and after shows the US-Israel war on Iran continuing into its seventh month; AJ 08-30 and CNBC describe the 08-30 exchange as the first flare-up since late July, a lull rather than a declared ceasefire, with Oman corridor diplomacy 08-25 to 08-26." } }, { "statement": "A wildfire in the Boise Mountains region, triggered by extreme heat, is confirmed by the NWS Flash Flood Warning system between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The National Weather Service (NWS) Flash Flood Warning system records a warning issued between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24 for the Boise Mountains region, citing wildfire risk due to extreme heat and dry conditions.", "deadline": "2026-08-27", "citations": [ 7, 24 ], "failure_condition": "The NWS Flash Flood Warning system does not issue a warning for the Boise Mountains region between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24 citing wildfire risk from extreme heat.", "id": "KKR-20260813-04", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "void", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] No NWS Flash Flood Warning for the Boise Mountains citing wildfire risk from extreme heat between 08-21 and 08-24 was found in any reporting.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T15:20:40.507604+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7d1fb91b4255e308b1c946362ae30be76018f078379b4c2cb0957df93e4cea12", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable — defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "operator", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "No NWS Flash Flood Warning for the Boise Mountains citing wildfire risk from extreme heat between 08-21 and 08-24 was found in any reporting." } }, { "statement": "The White House confirms the launch of offensive hack-back operations against hostile state actors by a private cybersecurity firm between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, as reported by BleepingComputer.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 38, "resolution": "BleepingComputer publishes a report on or before 2026-08-24 confirming that the White House has authorized offensive hack-back operations against hostile state actors by a private cybersecurity firm, with a direct quote from a White House official.", "deadline": "2026-08-27", "citations": [ 12, 10 ], "failure_condition": "BleepingComputer does not publish a report by 2026-08-24 confirming the White House's authorization of offensive hack-back operations by a private firm.", "id": "KKR-20260813-05", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] No White House authorization of offensive hack-back by a private cybersecurity firm appears in any August 2026 coverage across BleepingComputer, The Hacker News, CISA, or general press streams reviewed.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T15:20:40.507612+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a7e1d659214ce2cfa50f47888b172ebc5b997a0dac49cf61b12c9279c245b14e", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [12] carry the claim's operative terms (firm, hack-back, house, offensive, operation, white); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "No White House authorization of offensive hack-back by a private cybersecurity firm appears in any August 2026 coverage across BleepingComputer, The Hacker News, CISA, or general press streams reviewed." } }, { "statement": "A major oil spill from a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz is confirmed by Al Jazeera between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, with damage to marine life reported.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 25, "resolution": "Al Jazeera publishes a report between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24 confirming a major oil spill in the Strait of Hormuz, with at least one independent marine biologist or environmental agency confirming ecological damage.", "deadline": "2026-08-27", "citations": [ 72, 68 ], "failure_condition": "Al Jazeera does not publish a report between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24 confirming a major oil spill in the Strait of Hormuz with ecological damage verified by an independent source.", "id": "KKR-20260813-06", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Oil and shipping coverage for 08-21 to 08-24 (oilprice.com daily items, CNBC) discusses Hormuz traffic and sanctions but no oil spill; the tanker attack near 08-26 to 08-27 and the supertanker mine strike 08-31 both postdate the window.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T15:20:40.507622+00:00", "seal_sha256": "59cb67409c71166b103542f4bcb4b6295d3138a95ec6b601408486778ded390c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [68, 72] carry the claim's operative terms (damage, hormuz, spill, strait); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Oil and shipping coverage for 08-21 to 08-24 (oilprice.com daily items, CNBC) discusses Hormuz traffic and sanctions but no oil spill; the tanker attack near 08-26 to 08-27 and the supertanker mine strike 08-31 both postdate the window." } }, { "statement": "The European Parliament passes a resolution banning countries at war from hosting the Eurovision Song Contest between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, as recorded in the European Parliament's official register.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "The European Parliament's official register contains a resolution passed between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24 banning countries at war from hosting the Eurovision Song Contest, with a public docket number and date.", "deadline": "2026-08-27", "citations": [ 89, 87 ], "failure_condition": "The European Parliament's official register does not contain a resolution passed between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24 banning war-affected countries from hosting Eurovision.", "id": "KKR-20260813-07", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] The European Parliament holds no plenary sittings in late August recess, and no resolution on Eurovision host eligibility appears in any register or reporting for 08-21 to 08-24.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T15:20:40.507630+00:00", "seal_sha256": "da9a473a19c3eac924953e304ddd73d1ef504fe3610078d93eb8f51d2df3f0db", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [87, 89] carry the claim's operative terms (contest, countrie, eurovision, hosting, song); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The European Parliament holds no plenary sittings in late August recess, and no resolution on Eurovision host eligibility appears in any register or reporting for 08-21 to 08-24." } }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry whose affected product is Microsoft SharePoint, with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-14 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 65, "resolution": "TRUE if a fetch of the CISA KEV JSON at the deadline shows any Microsoft SharePoint entry with dateAdded between 2026-08-14 and 2026-09-30 inclusive; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 14 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV catalog fetched at the deadline contains no Microsoft SharePoint entry with a dateAdded value inside the 2026-08-14 to 2026-09-30 window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-08", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:53.904769+00:00", "seal_sha256": "31233e94adf12111683ea86eaaf4e85b8bfcb80f9903d035fc5a7167f5bbce25", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [14] carry the claim's operative terms (exploited, sharepoint); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The White House publicly names a specific individual as the next White House press secretary, acting or permanent, between 2026-08-14 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 85, "resolution": "TRUE if AP or Reuters carries a White House announcement, dated between 2026-08-14 and 2026-10-30, naming a specific successor as press secretary; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 94, 98, 114 ], "failure_condition": "As of the deadline, no White House announcement dated inside the window names any specific individual as the next press secretary.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-09", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:53.904789+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3b5e1e2388a2013e8f349fe8096c5b75ed495f848eb4b24cc201de09ef8520d8", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [98] carry the claim's operative terms (next, pres, secretary); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The Reform UK candidate is declared the winner of the Clacton by-election held on 2026-08-13.", "domain": "political", "probability": 70, "resolution": "TRUE if the returning officer's declared result, as carried by BBC or PA Media, names the Reform UK candidate as the winner; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-08-21", "citations": [ 93 ], "failure_condition": "The officially declared Clacton result names a candidate of any other party, or an independent, as the winner.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-10", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] Tendring District Council returning-officer statement (Aug 14, 2026) declared Nigel Farage (Reform UK) the winner of the Aug 13 Clacton by-election with 22,239 votes on 44.37 percent turnout; Al Jazeera (Aug 14, 2026) and ABC Australia (Aug 14, 2026) reported the declared result, with Count Binface second on 9,455 votes, and the UK Parliament constituency page records the by-election.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:53.904799+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5d1e70f4a12adc7d2a9d25fb0467aee2830472b490aaee1ce215ff21b05f3836", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior names the Clacton by-election underway with the Reform campaign in the record; outcome not stated. KEYED under the attribution doctrine (2026-08-04): attribution governs over strict deduction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Tendring District Council returning-officer statement (Aug 14, 2026) declared Nigel Farage (Reform UK) the winner of the Aug 13 Clacton by-election with 22,239 votes on 44.37 percent turnout; Al Jazeera (Aug 14, 2026) and ABC Australia (Aug 14, 2026) reported the declared result, with Count Binface second on 9,455 votes, and the UK Parliament constituency page records the by-election." } }, { "statement": "At least one reactor unit at Romania's Cernavoda nuclear plant records nonzero electricity output on the ENTSO-E transparency platform on at least one day between 2026-08-14 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 75, "resolution": "TRUE if ENTSO-E actual generation per generation unit shows output above 0 MW for any Cernavoda unit on any date between 2026-08-14 and 2026-09-30; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 79 ], "failure_condition": "ENTSO-E per-unit generation data show zero output from every Cernavoda unit on every day of the 2026-08-14 to 2026-09-30 window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-11", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:53.904806+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f06780fdf44b7b822d6037968e147c9a796c669b18e353866d5cdd4a704833c8", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [79] carry the claim's operative terms (nuclear, plant, romania'); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The United States and Iran both publicly confirm a ceasefire or framework agreement between them, with confirmations dated between 2026-08-14 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 20, "resolution": "TRUE if statements from both the US and Iranian governments confirming a ceasefire or framework agreement, each carried by AP, Reuters, or AFP, are dated between 2026-08-14 and 2026-10-30; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 62, 68, 80 ], "failure_condition": "By the deadline, at least one of the two governments has issued no confirmation of any such agreement dated inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-12", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:53.904813+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5a5620d38bb5c1d8db039172b062aac7b0246440cb7212b68490d129450b1137", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [62, 68] carry the claim's operative terms (iran, iranian); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The OHCHR human rights monitoring mission monthly update covering August 2026 reports a Ukraine civilian-killed total lower than the July 2026 total it states.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 60, "resolution": "TRUE if the published OHCHR HRMMU update covering August 2026 states an August civilian-killed total strictly below its stated July 2026 total; FALSE if equal, higher, or no update is published by the deadline.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 86 ], "failure_condition": "The August update states a civilian-killed total equal to or above its July figure, or no update covering August 2026 exists by the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-13", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:53.904820+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7a41d0ac7cabaa0c9bca952f52098d3114c2ecc9b5b8a1a777d9b2a8100a6508", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [86] carry the claim's operative terms (civilian-killed, higher, july, ukraine); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Nick Reiner enters a plea in court to the indictment referenced in reporting dated 2026-08-13, with the plea entered between 2026-08-14 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 82, "resolution": "TRUE if Los Angeles County court records, or reporting by AP, Reuters, or the Los Angeles Times, show a plea entered by Nick Reiner between 2026-08-14 and 2026-10-15; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 37 ], "failure_condition": "No plea by Nick Reiner is entered in court at any point inside the 2026-08-14 to 2026-10-15 window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-14", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:53.904827+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ad8cd8a055455e490b61e95981637b1cbee6969e7aedc4f00d6d7ff8a02a63e2", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [37] carry the claim's operative terms (indictment, nick, reiner); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry whose affected product is Microsoft SharePoint, with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-14 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if a fetch of the CISA KEV JSON at the deadline shows any Microsoft SharePoint entry with dateAdded between 2026-08-14 and 2026-09-30 inclusive; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 14 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV catalog fetched at the deadline contains no Microsoft SharePoint entry with a dateAdded value inside the 2026-08-14 to 2026-09-30 window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-13T16:46:53Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260813-08" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-15", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:54.885224+00:00", "seal_sha256": "546853f71e58b445a0b31421f14d839c1def6fefa72b50cc5cb24b04cb2145a5", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The White House publicly names a specific individual as the next White House press secretary, acting or permanent, between 2026-08-14 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if AP or Reuters carries a White House announcement, dated between 2026-08-14 and 2026-10-30, naming a specific successor as press secretary; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 94, 98, 114 ], "failure_condition": "As of the deadline, no White House announcement dated inside the window names any specific individual as the next press secretary.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-13T16:46:53Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260813-09" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-16", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:54.885244+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9ffad5fcba0409caac1fc6834b165b48d01f7d39531402a5d7f837c13fd8f0cb", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The Reform UK candidate is declared the winner of the Clacton by-election held on 2026-08-13.", "domain": "political", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if the returning officer's declared result, as carried by BBC or PA Media, names the Reform UK candidate as the winner; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-08-21", "citations": [ 93 ], "failure_condition": "The officially declared Clacton result names a candidate of any other party, or an independent, as the winner.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-13T16:46:53Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260813-10" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-17", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] Tendring District Council returning-officer statement (Aug 14, 2026) declared Nigel Farage (Reform UK) the winner of the Aug 13 Clacton by-election with 22,239 votes on 44.37 percent turnout; Al Jazeera (Aug 14, 2026) and ABC Australia (Aug 14, 2026) reported the declared result, with Count Binface second on 9,455 votes, and the UK Parliament constituency page records the by-election.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:54.885256+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6ecc0cde76246b77479c2112caacdf26b75362f57107aefd0755dc69778e6c2f", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Tendring District Council returning-officer statement (Aug 14, 2026) declared Nigel Farage (Reform UK) the winner of the Aug 13 Clacton by-election with 22,239 votes on 44.37 percent turnout; Al Jazeera (Aug 14, 2026) and ABC Australia (Aug 14, 2026) reported the declared result, with Count Binface second on 9,455 votes, and the UK Parliament constituency page records the by-election." } }, { "statement": "At least one reactor unit at Romania's Cernavoda nuclear plant records nonzero electricity output on the ENTSO-E transparency platform on at least one day between 2026-08-14 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if ENTSO-E actual generation per generation unit shows output above 0 MW for any Cernavoda unit on any date between 2026-08-14 and 2026-09-30; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 79 ], "failure_condition": "ENTSO-E per-unit generation data show zero output from every Cernavoda unit on every day of the 2026-08-14 to 2026-09-30 window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-13T16:46:53Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260813-11" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-18", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:54.885265+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a8fe9b029f2cd6dff60af8127aeff69039a07417f00443757e6342e449db5fa4", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The United States and Iran both publicly confirm a ceasefire or framework agreement between them, with confirmations dated between 2026-08-14 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if statements from both the US and Iranian governments confirming a ceasefire or framework agreement, each carried by AP, Reuters, or AFP, are dated between 2026-08-14 and 2026-10-30; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 62, 68, 80 ], "failure_condition": "By the deadline, at least one of the two governments has issued no confirmation of any such agreement dated inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-13T16:46:53Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260813-12" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-19", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:54.885273+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2c336c33b81701f7b68bbdd088f1e29e06b25338bf8754cacc67e8ad17b47fee", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "The OHCHR human rights monitoring mission monthly update covering August 2026 reports a Ukraine civilian-killed total lower than the July 2026 total it states.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if the published OHCHR HRMMU update covering August 2026 states an August civilian-killed total strictly below its stated July 2026 total; FALSE if equal, higher, or no update is published by the deadline.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 86 ], "failure_condition": "The August update states a civilian-killed total equal to or above its July figure, or no update covering August 2026 exists by the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-13T16:46:53Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260813-13" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-20", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:54.885281+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a4a0a2f2072d71a48760c8d5701e040b8936732805af1fb08ff760d89e2da1ad", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Nick Reiner enters a plea in court to the indictment referenced in reporting dated 2026-08-13, with the plea entered between 2026-08-14 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if Los Angeles County court records, or reporting by AP, Reuters, or the Los Angeles Times, show a plea entered by Nick Reiner between 2026-08-14 and 2026-10-15; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 37 ], "failure_condition": "No plea by Nick Reiner is entered in court at any point inside the 2026-08-14 to 2026-10-15 window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-13T16:46:53Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260813-14" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-21", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:54.885288+00:00", "seal_sha256": "449b1c91551d3160e28e6e1c81a5af2a23665164bbf67d86a060fcf9e0064124", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-14 and 2026-09-18, CISA adds at least one Microsoft SharePoint Server CVE to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 80, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog JSON contains an entry with vendorProject Microsoft and a product string naming SharePoint, carrying a dateAdded value between 2026-08-14 and 2026-09-18 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 14 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry naming SharePoint carries a dateAdded value inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-22", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:55.694458+00:00", "seal_sha256": "bdadae417df351e7431ec659039f28fbc76930f935a55a24736816411faaf91a", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [14] carry the claim's operative terms (exploited, sharepoint); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-27, Ukrainian forces strike a Russian Black Sea port, oil terminal, or grain terminal, and both sides acknowledge the strike.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 85, "resolution": "A Russian regional governor or the Russian Defence Ministry and a Ukrainian military or intelligence source each describe a strike on a Russian Black Sea port facility occurring inside the window, carried by Reuters or AFP.", "deadline": "2026-10-01", "citations": [ 66 ], "failure_condition": "No strike on a Russian Black Sea port facility inside the window draws acknowledgement from both a Russian and a Ukrainian official source.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-23", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:55.694477+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1d41864a7a82a806890361f74bb020b568641d39f77f285ed48390ba30ddd17c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [66] carry the claim's operative terms (black, grain, port, russian, terminal, ukrainian); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-20, Iranian forces seize, board, or detain at least one commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Oman.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 38, "resolution": "UKMTO issues an incident advisory and Reuters or Lloyds List reports an Iranian seizure, boarding, or detention of a commercial vessel in those waters occurring inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-09-24", "citations": [ 67, 68 ], "failure_condition": "No Iranian seizure, boarding, or detention of a commercial vessel occurs in those waters inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-24", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:55.694490+00:00", "seal_sha256": "bcbeec3a490236b0a9ef746a7eee5e9bc1ce8f9374cd9574e18270cae848a6b0", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [68] carry the claim's operative terms (hormuz, iranian, strait); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "A named successor to Karoline Leavitt as White House press secretary is publicly announced between 2026-08-14 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 74, "resolution": "The White House or the President names a specific individual as press secretary or acting press secretary inside the window, reported by both the Associated Press and Reuters.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 94, 114 ], "failure_condition": "No individual is named to the press secretary post inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-25", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:55.694498+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5aa2c9ba049357ddfbc018098a9790b973148cb08cddd74e25246f73e92dd681", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [94, 114] carry the claim's operative terms (karoline, leavitt); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "USGS records at least one magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake within 250 km of the epicenter of event us6000tjl2, with origin time between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 22, "resolution": "A USGS ComCat query returns one or more events of magnitude 6.0 or above within 250 km of the us6000tjl2 epicenter with origin time inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 26 ], "failure_condition": "ComCat returns no magnitude 6.0 or greater event meeting both the distance and origin-time criteria.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-26", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:55.694507+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3e68b3dd5b15754981d7bc21fc5be60f4d2426dffa450f468fced11c8d7d35e9", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited record supplies the us6000tjl2 mainshock only; no recorded M6+ event within the radius appears in any cited prior. Outcome not deducible from the cited record — operator-claimed KEYLESS.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-14 and 2026-09-18, CISA adds at least one Microsoft SharePoint Server CVE to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog JSON contains an entry with vendorProject Microsoft and a product string naming SharePoint, carrying a dateAdded value between 2026-08-14 and 2026-09-18 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 14 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry naming SharePoint carries a dateAdded value inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-13T16:46:55Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260813-22" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-27", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:56.521420+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d6237a6027300ec8801da7257a68384c35739789c8070c75d5e458199d0f7eff", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-27, Ukrainian forces strike a Russian Black Sea port, oil terminal, or grain terminal, and both sides acknowledge the strike.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 33, "resolution": "A Russian regional governor or the Russian Defence Ministry and a Ukrainian military or intelligence source each describe a strike on a Russian Black Sea port facility occurring inside the window, carried by Reuters or AFP.", "deadline": "2026-10-01", "citations": [ 66 ], "failure_condition": "No strike on a Russian Black Sea port facility inside the window draws acknowledgement from both a Russian and a Ukrainian official source.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-13T16:46:55Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260813-23" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-28", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:56.521440+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b1dc8c6dbac00c58b16230480a95a25a6d9122047d95963c53f2d59b1d06b961", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-20, Iranian forces seize, board, or detain at least one commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Oman.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 33, "resolution": "UKMTO issues an incident advisory and Reuters or Lloyds List reports an Iranian seizure, boarding, or detention of a commercial vessel in those waters occurring inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-09-24", "citations": [ 67, 68 ], "failure_condition": "No Iranian seizure, boarding, or detention of a commercial vessel occurs in those waters inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-13T16:46:55Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260813-24" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-29", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:56.521450+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2524e5f53c14188259fecba026aa7d3d3b048257b39cedca229d84e2abe21dc0", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "A named successor to Karoline Leavitt as White House press secretary is publicly announced between 2026-08-14 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 33, "resolution": "The White House or the President names a specific individual as press secretary or acting press secretary inside the window, reported by both the Associated Press and Reuters.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 94, 114 ], "failure_condition": "No individual is named to the press secretary post inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-13T16:46:55Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260813-25" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-30", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:56.521460+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7e5beb6c6ce5899429d4589869145e192887355eaeddc7d429c21218e12287cc", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "USGS records at least one magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake within 250 km of the epicenter of event us6000tjl2, with origin time between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 33, "resolution": "A USGS ComCat query returns one or more events of magnitude 6.0 or above within 250 km of the us6000tjl2 epicenter with origin time inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 26 ], "failure_condition": "ComCat returns no magnitude 6.0 or greater event meeting both the distance and origin-time criteria.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-13T16:46:55Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260813-26" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-31", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:56.521468+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e91f6f5607ef835ebecf08570adedf6643f106dd812840429d84e38391c98be2", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "CVE-2026-55040, the Microsoft SharePoint JWT authentication-bypass flaw under active exploitation via public proof-of-concept code as of 13 Aug 2026, will be added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-13 and 2026-08-25.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 55, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog at cisa.gov lists CVE-2026-55040 with a dateAdded date between 2026-08-13 and 2026-08-25, checked as of 2026-08-27.", "deadline": "2026-08-27", "citations": [ 14 ], "failure_condition": "CVE-2026-55040 has not been added to the CISA KEV catalog with a dateAdded date in the stated window, as of 2026-08-27.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-32", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] CISA alert dated 2026-08-18 added CVE-2026-55040, the Microsoft SharePoint weak-authentication JWT bypass, to the KEV catalog with a federal remediation deadline of 08-21; The Hacker News reported the addition the same day. DateAdded 08-18 sits inside 08-13 to 08-25.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:57.288981+00:00", "seal_sha256": "78e543664e9e6bb59bba66e3d1ae2fddd7c558d41aaab18458d98c97bcb72f4f", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [14] carry the claim's operative terms (authentication-bypas, exploitation, exploited, sharepoint); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "CISA alert dated 2026-08-18 added CVE-2026-55040, the Microsoft SharePoint weak-authentication JWT bypass, to the KEV catalog with a federal remediation deadline of 08-21; The Hacker News reported the addition the same day. DateAdded 08-18 sits inside 08-13 to 08-25." } }, { "statement": "A specific victim organization of the City-Forum data-theft campaign against Salesforce Experience Cloud and ServiceNow portals will be publicly named, by the victim, by Reco, or by another named security-research firm, between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-22.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "A named security vendor, the victim itself, or a wire service publicly identifies a specific organization as a confirmed City-Forum campaign victim, in reporting dated between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-24.", "deadline": "2026-09-24", "citations": [ 15 ], "failure_condition": "No specific organization has been publicly named as a City-Forum campaign victim, as of 2026-09-24.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-33", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:57.289000+00:00", "seal_sha256": "cc2c1b0bd52b1ff14a522834e92e5db4a6c418015a668165f0f84774865307d6", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [15] carry the claim's operative terms (city-forum, data-theft, portal, salesforce, service, servicenow); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-14 and 2026-08-28, Ukrainian forces will conduct a further confirmed drone or missile strike on Russian Black Sea export or naval infrastructure, at a port such as Novorossiysk, Tuapse, or another Black Sea facility.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 85, "resolution": "At least two of Reuters, AP, or the Institute for the Study of War daily assessment report a Ukrainian strike on Russian Black Sea port or naval infrastructure between 2026-08-14 and 2026-08-28, checked by 2026-09-01.", "deadline": "2026-09-01", "citations": [ 66 ], "failure_condition": "Ukrainian forces do not conduct an independently confirmed strike on Russian Black Sea port or naval infrastructure between 2026-08-14 and 2026-08-28.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-34", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] The massive Ukrainian strike on Novorossiysk naval and port infrastructure occurred overnight 08-11 to 08-12 (Reuters via Moscow Times 08-12, AJ 08-12, Kyiv Independent), two days before the 08-14 window opens; no further confirmed strike on Russian Black Sea port or naval infrastructure during 08-14 to 08-28 surfaced in targeted searches.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:57.289011+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c655066ca6edc80af4b73d317a1fafc133e6618ac0b8bc772030b60636be16bb", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [66] carry the claim's operative terms (black, port, russian, ukrainian); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The massive Ukrainian strike on Novorossiysk naval and port infrastructure occurred overnight 08-11 to 08-12 (Reuters via Moscow Times 08-12, AJ 08-12, Kyiv Independent), two days before the 08-14 window opens; no further confirmed strike on Russian Black Sea port or naval infrastructure during 08-14 to 08-28 surfaced in targeted searches." } }, { "statement": "WTI crude oil, the NYMEX front-month futures contract, will settle at or above 85.00 USD per barrel at the close of trading on 2026-09-15.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 32, "resolution": "The NYMEX WTI front-month settlement price for 2026-09-15, as published by CME Group, the EIA, or a financial data provider, is 85.00 USD per barrel or higher.", "deadline": "2026-09-15", "citations": [ 47 ], "failure_condition": "The NYMEX WTI front-month settlement price on 2026-09-15 is below 85.00 USD per barrel.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-35", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:57.289022+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a97ba4c96ca4a72afcabc1949decbd96c52d99dfe35a9bbd176022255dabd617", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Market-threshold claim with no reference level stated at seal; the keyed/keyless gap is unmeasurable and the entry defaults KEYED per 4.03/5.05 (market NOTE doctrine).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "CVE-2026-55040, the Microsoft SharePoint JWT authentication-bypass flaw under active exploitation via public proof-of-concept code as of 13 Aug 2026, will be added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-13 and 2026-08-25.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog at cisa.gov lists CVE-2026-55040 with a dateAdded date between 2026-08-13 and 2026-08-25, checked as of 2026-08-27.", "deadline": "2026-08-27", "citations": [ 14 ], "failure_condition": "CVE-2026-55040 has not been added to the CISA KEV catalog with a dateAdded date in the stated window, as of 2026-08-27.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-13T16:46:57Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260813-32" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-36", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Duplicate of KKR-20260813-32: KEV dateAdded 2026-08-18 for CVE-2026-55040 per CISA alert.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:59.553998+00:00", "seal_sha256": "21ed27d9af6e9144f67632afff9e3d3e3c1c4085cde058f3a229d4ca6147b705", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Duplicate of KKR-20260813-32: KEV dateAdded 2026-08-18 for CVE-2026-55040 per CISA alert." } }, { "statement": "A specific victim organization of the City-Forum data-theft campaign against Salesforce Experience Cloud and ServiceNow portals will be publicly named, by the victim, by Reco, or by another named security-research firm, between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-22.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "A named security vendor, the victim itself, or a wire service publicly identifies a specific organization as a confirmed City-Forum campaign victim, in reporting dated between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-24.", "deadline": "2026-09-24", "citations": [ 15 ], "failure_condition": "No specific organization has been publicly named as a City-Forum campaign victim, as of 2026-09-24.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-13T16:46:57Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260813-33" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-37", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:59.554021+00:00", "seal_sha256": "85c29faaeff7083837c05fde8103e39db2799b647ff49c7a55af95833e605219", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-14 and 2026-08-28, Ukrainian forces will conduct a further confirmed drone or missile strike on Russian Black Sea export or naval infrastructure, at a port such as Novorossiysk, Tuapse, or another Black Sea facility.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 33, "resolution": "At least two of Reuters, AP, or the Institute for the Study of War daily assessment report a Ukrainian strike on Russian Black Sea port or naval infrastructure between 2026-08-14 and 2026-08-28, checked by 2026-09-01.", "deadline": "2026-09-01", "citations": [ 66 ], "failure_condition": "Ukrainian forces do not conduct an independently confirmed strike on Russian Black Sea port or naval infrastructure between 2026-08-14 and 2026-08-28.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-13T16:46:57Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260813-34" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-38", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Duplicate of KKR-20260813-34: the qualifying Novorossiysk strike predates the window by two days and no in-window successor was found.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:59.554033+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fb7dbaec26596bf117fa19e055b44a4e668f1660cfb8e9464c94e45b6ff4cb06", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Duplicate of KKR-20260813-34: the qualifying Novorossiysk strike predates the window by two days and no in-window successor was found." } }, { "statement": "WTI crude oil, the NYMEX front-month futures contract, will settle at or above 85.00 USD per barrel at the close of trading on 2026-09-15.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 18, "resolution": "The NYMEX WTI front-month settlement price for 2026-09-15, as published by CME Group, the EIA, or a financial data provider, is 85.00 USD per barrel or higher.", "deadline": "2026-09-15", "citations": [ 47 ], "failure_condition": "The NYMEX WTI front-month settlement price on 2026-09-15 is below 85.00 USD per barrel.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.1818, "n": 11, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-13T16:46:57Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260813-35" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-13_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260813-39", "date_issued": "2026-08-13", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-13_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-13T16:46:59.554043+00:00", "seal_sha256": "803e6f97c6e978a988c80462fc72b2acf008ba6884a5cd31ef66c83e6ac67c75", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-14" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-25, a significant earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or higher will be recorded by the USGS in the Pacific Northwest, with a location within 50 km of the San Andreas Fault.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The USGS Significant Quakes database will list an event with magnitude ≥5.0 and location within 50 km of the San Andreas Fault between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-25.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 26 ], "failure_condition": "No USGS event with magnitude ≥5.0 and location within 50 km of the San Andreas Fault is recorded between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-25.", "id": "KKR-20260814-01", "date_issued": "2026-08-14", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-14_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-14_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] No magnitude 5.0 or greater event within 50 km of the San Andreas fault during 08-22 to 08-25 appears in California or national coverage; an M5 near that fault reliably generates state media and USGS Significant listings.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-14T15:19:15.915287+00:00", "seal_sha256": "db5be852ee19dfbd9df0de224e733f1f4d1cd53c67a616b5b1fbcb0730962b37", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [26] carry the claim's operative terms (quake, significant); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "No magnitude 5.0 or greater event within 50 km of the San Andreas fault during 08-22 to 08-25 appears in California or national coverage; an M5 near that fault reliably generates state media and USGS Significant listings." } }, { "statement": "On 2026-08-23, the S&P 500 will close above 7,800 points, based on the final settlement price from the NYSE.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 60, "resolution": "The S&P 500 closes at or above 7,800 points on 2026-08-23, as reported by the NYSE final settlement price.", "deadline": "2026-08-26", "citations": [ 1 ], "failure_condition": "The S&P 500 closes below 7,800 points on 2026-08-23, based on the NYSE final settlement price.", "id": "KKR-20260814-02", "date_issued": "2026-08-14", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-14_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-14_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "MISS: 23 Aug 2026 was a Sunday, no NYSE session; adjacent closes 7,674.37 (21 Aug) and about 7,677 (25 Aug), both below 7,800. Not voided: the miss is earned on the adjacent sessions (08-04 amendment). Weekend-deadline market rows are now rejected at the gate.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-14T15:19:15.915309+00:00", "seal_sha256": "960eb5a6a3c9a9a8b00f9ba222b5e36ed054135a57cca0b453e55570ab7c662d", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable — defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "operator", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": null }, "evidence": "Aug 23, 2026 was a Sunday with no NYSE session and therefore no settlement price; the surrounding closes were all well below 7,800: CNBC (Aug 21, 2026) reported the S&P 500 closing at 7,674.37 on Friday Aug 21, Yahoo Finance shows a close of 7,677.28 on Aug 25 (up 24.42, implying about 7,652.86 on Aug 24), and Advisor Perspectives (Aug 21, 2026) put the index 1.6 percent below its Aug 13 record close." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a data breach involving the exposure of over 1 million user accounts will be confirmed by two independent sources in the United States, with the breach linked to a RingCentral system.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 35, "resolution": "Two independent U.S.-based sources will confirm a data breach affecting over 1 million user accounts linked to RingCentral between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-27", "citations": [ 17 ], "failure_condition": "No two independent U.S.-based sources confirm a data breach affecting over 1 million user accounts linked to RingCentral between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260814-03", "date_issued": "2026-08-14", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-14_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-14_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] The RingCentral breach is real and exceeds the threshold: 1.6 million accounts confirmed by Have I Been Pwned on 08-13 and reported by BleepingComputer 08-14, The Register 08-14, and SecurityWeek 08-14.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-14T15:19:15.915321+00:00", "seal_sha256": "72645f2cb08649084f402fc8bb484d2baf91d80ff69c5f167149d31aa06db11e", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [17] carry the claim's operative terms (account, breach, exposure, million, ringcentral); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The RingCentral breach is real and exceeds the threshold: 1.6 million accounts confirmed by Have I Been Pwned on 08-13 and reported by BleepingComputer 08-14, The Register 08-14, and SecurityWeek 08-14." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-25, a major cyberattack will be reported by at least two hostile sides in the Iran Theatre, with the attack targeting critical infrastructure and involving a known exploit chain.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 20, "resolution": "At least two hostile sides (AXIS, WEST) will report a cyberattack on critical infrastructure in the Iran Theatre between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-25, with the attack involving a known exploit chain.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 13 ], "failure_condition": "No cyberattack on critical infrastructure in the Iran Theatre is reported by two hostile sides between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-25 involving a known exploit chain.", "id": "KKR-20260814-04", "date_issued": "2026-08-14", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-14_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-14_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] The 08-22 to 08-25 period in the Iran theatre was a military lull focused on sanctions and Oman corridor diplomacy per CNBC and oilprice daily coverage; no critical-infrastructure cyberattack reported by opposing sides with a known exploit chain surfaced.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-14T15:19:15.915330+00:00", "seal_sha256": "495fc631032a6184b58b7808479d41fbab254c507f89b36cef7f445ecb83e038", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [13] carry the claim's operative terms (attack, targeting); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The 08-22 to 08-25 period in the Iran theatre was a military lull focused on sanctions and Oman corridor diplomacy per CNBC and oilprice daily coverage; no critical-infrastructure cyberattack reported by opposing sides with a known exploit chain surfaced." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a new government policy will be announced in the United Kingdom that imposes a temporary ban on disposable barbecues in areas classified as 'tinderbox' due to extreme heat risk.", "domain": "political", "probability": 40, "resolution": "A government-issued policy in the United Kingdom, confirmed by two independent news outlets, will impose a temporary ban on disposable barbecues in areas classified as 'tinderbox' due to extreme heat risk between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-27", "citations": [ 101 ], "failure_condition": "No government-issued policy imposing a temporary ban on disposable barbecues in 'tinderbox' areas due to extreme heat risk is confirmed by two independent news outlets between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260814-05", "date_issued": "2026-08-14", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-14_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-14_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] The UK government issued a temporary national ban on disposable barbecue sales on 2026-08-14 under statutory GPSR guidance, per ITV News 08-14, the Scottish Parliament SPICe briefing, and New Forest District Council 08-15.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-14T15:19:15.915339+00:00", "seal_sha256": "864bae5a90d8b7eb107ca2385a5f43d99b19bef07af87af58f7683aa496ab3e2", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [101] carry the claim's operative terms (barbecue, disposable, temporary, tinderbox); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The UK government issued a temporary national ban on disposable barbecue sales on 2026-08-14 under statutory GPSR guidance, per ITV News 08-14, the Scottish Parliament SPICe briefing, and New Forest District Council 08-15." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-25, a new military alliance will be formally announced by Saudi Arabia and its regional partners, with the stated purpose of defending the Red Sea from maritime threats.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "A formal announcement of a new military alliance for Red Sea defense will be made by Saudi Arabia and at least two regional partners between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-25, confirmed by two independent news outlets.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 81 ], "failure_condition": "No formal announcement of a new Red Sea defense alliance by Saudi Arabia and at least two regional partners is confirmed by two independent news outlets between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-25.", "id": "KKR-20260814-06", "date_issued": "2026-08-14", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-14_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-14_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] No formal announcement of a new Saudi-led Red Sea defense alliance during 08-22 to 08-25 appears in the extensive regional coverage of the period, which centered on the Yemen escalation and US-Iran sanctions.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-14T15:19:15.915347+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ea5335360c97541370133cdbaf06ad39d246f3c1e9b68b3ff41dbaa492e5cc27", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [81] carry the claim's operative terms (alliance, announced, announcement, arabia, defending, defense); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "No formal announcement of a new Saudi-led Red Sea defense alliance during 08-22 to 08-25 appears in the extensive regional coverage of the period, which centered on the Yemen escalation and US-Iran sanctions." } }, { "statement": "The USGS ComCat catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater with epicenter within 300 km of USGS event us6000tjl2 and origin time between 2026-08-15 and 2026-09-14.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 30, "resolution": "A ComCat query on the deadline returns at least one M 6.0 or greater event meeting the distance and origin-time criteria.", "deadline": "2026-09-16", "citations": [ 26 ], "failure_condition": "ComCat contains no qualifying M 6.0 or greater event within 300 km for the stated origin window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-14_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260815-01", "date_issued": "2026-08-15", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-14_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-15T05:33:09.925218+00:00", "seal_sha256": "132a4f72555d94ff62c0419a9fd859af0f358dee8ab35d10e42e4fb96d1cf523", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited record supplies the us6000tjl2 mainshock only; no recorded M6+ event within 300 km appears in any cited prior. Aftershock-occurrence class — operator-claimed KEYLESS per the standing 2026-08-15 family ruling.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "The WHO Director-General declares the Democratic Republic of the Congo Ebola outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern between 2026-08-15 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 20, "resolution": "A WHO announcement of a PHEIC determination for the DRC Ebola outbreak, published on who.int within the window.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 77 ], "failure_condition": "WHO makes no PHEIC determination for this outbreak within the window, regardless of case counts or committee meetings.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-14_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260815-02", "date_issued": "2026-08-15", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-14_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-15T05:33:09.925239+00:00", "seal_sha256": "97432f5edc4bc052999acfcec1920f327e27b6f3dd040e94ae0d1912bacb5040", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [77] carry the claim's operative terms (congo, ebola); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "The USGS ComCat catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater with epicenter within 300 km of USGS event us6000tjl2 and origin time between 2026-08-15 and 2026-09-14.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 33, "resolution": "A ComCat query on the deadline returns at least one M 6.0 or greater event meeting the distance and origin-time criteria.", "deadline": "2026-09-16", "citations": [ 26 ], "failure_condition": "ComCat contains no qualifying M 6.0 or greater event within 300 km for the stated origin window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-15T05:33:09Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260815-01" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-14_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260815-03", "date_issued": "2026-08-15", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-14_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-15T05:33:11.378300+00:00", "seal_sha256": "15b39156de8ad3742c2f400d05b378dae3d1affad4d0c5494a821519609b816f", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "The WHO Director-General declares the Democratic Republic of the Congo Ebola outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern between 2026-08-15 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 33, "resolution": "A WHO announcement of a PHEIC determination for the DRC Ebola outbreak, published on who.int within the window.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 77 ], "failure_condition": "WHO makes no PHEIC determination for this outbreak within the window, regardless of case counts or committee meetings.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-15T05:33:09Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260815-02" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-14_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260815-04", "date_issued": "2026-08-15", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-14_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-15T05:33:11.378319+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b7ba79baedd753c77a0d374a79789ce27bd37ac36eb67bd42c846f5313ba6612", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog adds at least one VMware vCenter Server entry, listed under vendorProject VMware or Broadcom, with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-17 and 2026-11-13.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 40, "resolution": "TRUE if a KEV entry naming VMware vCenter Server in its product field carries a dateAdded between 2026-08-17 and 2026-11-13 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-17", "citations": [ 23 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry naming VMware vCenter Server carries a dateAdded inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-14_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260815-05", "date_issued": "2026-08-15", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-14_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-15T05:33:12.095657+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5cb322b20d90d541f8232c424cc7c3681b9c9f5374f758c48e4be9939bb2148a", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [23] carry the claim's operative terms (vcenter, vmware); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "The FRED series DGS10 records a daily value at or above 5.00 percent on at least one business day between 2026-08-17 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "economics", "probability": 45, "resolution": "TRUE if any non-missing DGS10 observation dated inside the window is 5.00 or greater as published in the FRED series.", "deadline": "2027-01-05", "citations": [ 29, 59 ], "failure_condition": "Every non-missing DGS10 observation inside the window prints below 5.00 percent.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-14_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260815-06", "date_issued": "2026-08-15", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-14_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-15T05:33:12.095676+00:00", "seal_sha256": "cfed5b22d03f018cc4f29b45939e7ca8b6ab175966de58242906fc80d25afa52", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Market-threshold claim with no reference level stated at seal; the keyed/keyless gap is unmeasurable and the entry defaults KEYED per 4.03/5.05 (market NOTE doctrine).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "A NATO member state formally requests Article 4 consultations between 2026-08-17 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 15, "resolution": "TRUE if NATO publishes a statement confirming Article 4 consultations were invoked, and Reuters and the Associated Press both report the request, dated inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 83 ], "failure_condition": "No member state requests Article 4 consultations inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-14_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260815-07", "date_issued": "2026-08-15", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-14_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-15T05:33:12.095686+00:00", "seal_sha256": "12c77290b8589cd9a5f325841e336b7e32e7b6094ce2abc693bd550ab169fb6c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited priors ground the NATO airspace context (Balvi) throughout the record; no Article 4 request appears. KEYED under the attribution doctrine (2026-08-04).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "The UK Electoral Commission publishes a concluded investigation outcome naming Reform UK on its enforcement register between 2026-08-17 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "political", "probability": 22, "resolution": "TRUE if the Electoral Commission enforcement outcomes register carries an entry naming Reform UK with a published date inside the window.", "deadline": "2027-01-05", "citations": [ 96, 104 ], "failure_condition": "The enforcement register carries no concluded outcome naming Reform UK dated inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-14_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260815-08", "date_issued": "2026-08-15", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-14_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-15T05:33:12.095694+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0f28d89db47a162fda160042edd6fac956e3f7ea698985c3cf8f5c38b23d1cd0", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior grounds the Reform UK investigation subject; no concluded outcome appears. KEYED under the attribution doctrine (2026-08-04).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "The World Health Organization declares the Democratic Republic of the Congo Ebola outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern between 2026-08-17 and 2026-12-15.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 12, "resolution": "TRUE if WHO publishes an IHR Emergency Committee statement or Director-General declaration designating this outbreak a PHEIC, dated inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-12-18", "citations": [ 77 ], "failure_condition": "WHO issues no PHEIC declaration covering this outbreak inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-14_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260815-09", "date_issued": "2026-08-15", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-14_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-15T05:33:12.095701+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9721c353085d386f7ab822281a77f3671fcfda2641e0ffa2e46cbc1a8f185db5", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [77] carry the claim's operative terms (congo, ebola); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Luigi Mangione enters a guilty plea to at least one count in the New York state prosecution between 2026-08-17 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the New York state court docket in that prosecution records a guilty plea entered by the defendant on a date inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 106 ], "failure_condition": "The state docket records no guilty plea entered inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-14_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260815-10", "date_issued": "2026-08-15", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-14_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-15T05:33:12.095708+00:00", "seal_sha256": "408777d814f22a00552422bc9df49006b82549838f1cb6c31a020f5e559dda89", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [106] carry the claim's operative terms (court, luigi, mangione, plea); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog adds at least one VMware vCenter Server entry, listed under vendorProject VMware or Broadcom, with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-17 and 2026-11-13.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if a KEV entry naming VMware vCenter Server in its product field carries a dateAdded between 2026-08-17 and 2026-11-13 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-17", "citations": [ 23 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry naming VMware vCenter Server carries a dateAdded inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-15T05:33:12Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260815-05" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-14_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260815-11", "date_issued": "2026-08-15", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-14_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-15T05:33:12.884919+00:00", "seal_sha256": "013e020472ccbc57217f1ea135816af35e80f6fc2203f8d9bc62e87fe1775d53", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "The FRED series DGS10 records a daily value at or above 5.00 percent on at least one business day between 2026-08-17 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "economics", "probability": 18, "resolution": "TRUE if any non-missing DGS10 observation dated inside the window is 5.00 or greater as published in the FRED series.", "deadline": "2027-01-05", "citations": [ 29, 59 ], "failure_condition": "Every non-missing DGS10 observation inside the window prints below 5.00 percent.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.1818, "n": 11, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-15T05:33:12Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260815-06" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-14_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260815-12", "date_issued": "2026-08-15", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-14_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-15T05:33:12.884938+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1bba532fe645fdfd8089b2f379d6b00094ac89aa069bcdaa626176f2a9950f33", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "A NATO member state formally requests Article 4 consultations between 2026-08-17 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if NATO publishes a statement confirming Article 4 consultations were invoked, and Reuters and the Associated Press both report the request, dated inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 83 ], "failure_condition": "No member state requests Article 4 consultations inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-15T05:33:12Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260815-07" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-14_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260815-13", "date_issued": "2026-08-15", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-14_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-15T05:33:12.884948+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6a70dc84c6175124ec98a28b9ffa96b9e8926b9425ad33f5f6a42f38267e05c4", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "The UK Electoral Commission publishes a concluded investigation outcome naming Reform UK on its enforcement register between 2026-08-17 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "political", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if the Electoral Commission enforcement outcomes register carries an entry naming Reform UK with a published date inside the window.", "deadline": "2027-01-05", "citations": [ 96, 104 ], "failure_condition": "The enforcement register carries no concluded outcome naming Reform UK dated inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-15T05:33:12Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260815-08" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-14_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260815-14", "date_issued": "2026-08-15", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-14_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-15T05:33:12.884955+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4ab0268d561b86470792ce00ce72433977f12f890b0df55a6c1c23689f7718d9", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "The World Health Organization declares the Democratic Republic of the Congo Ebola outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern between 2026-08-17 and 2026-12-15.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if WHO publishes an IHR Emergency Committee statement or Director-General declaration designating this outbreak a PHEIC, dated inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-12-18", "citations": [ 77 ], "failure_condition": "WHO issues no PHEIC declaration covering this outbreak inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-15T05:33:12Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260815-09" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-14_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260815-15", "date_issued": "2026-08-15", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-14_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-15T05:33:12.884963+00:00", "seal_sha256": "eb4deaf7c5618e691b3e4a738446ca1d871dbb4f9365fc129e95bbfadf615acb", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Luigi Mangione enters a guilty plea to at least one count in the New York state prosecution between 2026-08-17 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if the New York state court docket in that prosecution records a guilty plea entered by the defendant on a date inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 106 ], "failure_condition": "The state docket records no guilty plea entered inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-15T05:33:12Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260815-10" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-14_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260815-16", "date_issued": "2026-08-15", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-14_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-15T05:33:12.884970+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6654cc32164070a63d1fefde4ad3d0bf9643bd5fbd66d09a641d32fb3a329c54", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "The 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate, FRED series DGS10, closes at or above 4.75 percent on at least one trading day between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-25.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 45, "resolution": "The FRED DGS10 series shows a closing value of 4.75 or higher for at least one date between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-25.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 29, 59 ], "failure_condition": "DGS10 fails to close at or above 4.75 percent on every trading day between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-25.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-14_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260815-17", "date_issued": "2026-08-15", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-14_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-15T05:33:13.641708+00:00", "seal_sha256": "865f2b67accc456421e7883b9e7210375f2417191798c087ad3128a1dbed296e", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [29, 59] carry the claim's operative terms (higher, year); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "NATO or a Baltic national air force kinetically shoots down or intercepts a drone or unmanned aerial vehicle inside Estonian, Latvian, or Lithuanian airspace, distinct from the August 14, 2026 Balvi incident, between 2026-08-21 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 42, "resolution": "NATO, a Baltic Ministry of Defence, or two of Reuters, AP, and Bloomberg confirm a kinetic drone shoot-down in Baltic airspace within the window, distinct from the Aug 14 Balvi incident.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 83 ], "failure_condition": "No kinetic shoot-down or destructive intercept of a drone occurs inside Estonian, Latvian, or Lithuanian airspace, distinct from the Aug 14 Balvi incident, between 2026-08-21 and 2026-10-15.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-14_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260815-18", "date_issued": "2026-08-15", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-14_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-15T05:33:13.641729+00:00", "seal_sha256": "98ef6ce4a3a8c52662e73b97bf93f5361d16e24532ebae64a0dafaa4bde59f36", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [83] carry the claim's operative terms (down, drone, latvian, nato, shoot, shoot-down); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "The government of Russia publishes a decree ordering a new mandatory, non-contract mobilization wave of reservists, distinct from routine conscription and from the September 2022 partial mobilization, between 2026-08-21 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 10, "resolution": "The official Russian legal register, pravo.gov.ru, publishes a mobilization decree, corroborated by two of Reuters, AP, ISW, and Meduza, within the window.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 79 ], "failure_condition": "Russia issues no new mandatory mobilization decree in its official legal register between 2026-08-21 and 2026-11-30.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-14_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260815-19", "date_issued": "2026-08-15", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-14_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-15T05:33:13.641740+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b651f84b351cf56331aad834c0c4657a60e691892ecf853024e53d425e1aa7da", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited priors ground Russian mobilization discourse; no decree appears in the record. KEYED under the attribution doctrine (2026-08-04).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "The 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate, FRED series DGS10, closes at or above 4.75 percent on at least one trading day between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-25.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 18, "resolution": "The FRED DGS10 series shows a closing value of 4.75 or higher for at least one date between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-25.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 29, 59 ], "failure_condition": "DGS10 fails to close at or above 4.75 percent on every trading day between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-25.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.1818, "n": 11, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-15T05:33:13Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260815-17" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-14_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260815-20", "date_issued": "2026-08-15", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-14_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-15T05:33:15.961775+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4f1cb28bab37b84f3a3223616faba18a1fe4da3aeefdfd4e6bfcd564328e89e8", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "NATO or a Baltic national air force kinetically shoots down or intercepts a drone or unmanned aerial vehicle inside Estonian, Latvian, or Lithuanian airspace, distinct from the August 14, 2026 Balvi incident, between 2026-08-21 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 33, "resolution": "NATO, a Baltic Ministry of Defence, or two of Reuters, AP, and Bloomberg confirm a kinetic drone shoot-down in Baltic airspace within the window, distinct from the Aug 14 Balvi incident.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 83 ], "failure_condition": "No kinetic shoot-down or destructive intercept of a drone occurs inside Estonian, Latvian, or Lithuanian airspace, distinct from the Aug 14 Balvi incident, between 2026-08-21 and 2026-10-15.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-15T05:33:13Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260815-18" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-14_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260815-21", "date_issued": "2026-08-15", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-14_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-15T05:33:15.961796+00:00", "seal_sha256": "cf7e2e15a9f6ca65c1494e24eacbd046ae28e8e5ff0cebfa12e1edbfe778d25c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "The government of Russia publishes a decree ordering a new mandatory, non-contract mobilization wave of reservists, distinct from routine conscription and from the September 2022 partial mobilization, between 2026-08-21 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 33, "resolution": "The official Russian legal register, pravo.gov.ru, publishes a mobilization decree, corroborated by two of Reuters, AP, ISW, and Meduza, within the window.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 79 ], "failure_condition": "Russia issues no new mandatory mobilization decree in its official legal register between 2026-08-21 and 2026-11-30.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3256, "n": 43, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-15T05:33:13Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260815-19" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-14_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260815-22", "date_issued": "2026-08-15", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-14_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-15T05:33:15.961808+00:00", "seal_sha256": "735e724603db3dbb609185a5dc6f4ba00713ad2ff3b4b467b60717012284c722", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "A magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake occurs in Indonesia between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, with a depth between 10km and 150km and a confirmed death toll of at least 10.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The USGS Significant Quakes catalog records an event with magnitude >= 7.0, depth between 10km and 150km, location within Indonesia, and a confirmed death toll of at least 10 as reported by two independent wire services (BBC World, Al Jazeera) by 2026-08-30.", "deadline": "2026-08-30", "citations": [ 17, 18, 24, 31, 32 ], "failure_condition": "No such event is confirmed by two independent wire services by the deadline.", "id": "KKR-20260815-23", "date_issued": "2026-08-15", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-15_1726.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-15_1726.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] The M7.7 Indonesia quake struck 08-14 to 08-15 with 47 to 53-plus deaths (AJ, NBC, CBS), a week before the 08-21 to 08-28 window; no M7.0-plus Indonesia event occurred inside the window per coverage of the region.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-15T17:27:42.314394+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4bf2f1db1352069d29de613ca4c64a15ce30a5011d9eb7fd8d56ad3cbae5902c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [17, 18, 24, 31, 32] carry the claim's operative terms (depth, earthquake, indonesia, magnitude, quake, significant); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The M7.7 Indonesia quake struck 08-14 to 08-15 with 47 to 53-plus deaths (AJ, NBC, CBS), a week before the 08-21 to 08-28 window; no M7.0-plus Indonesia event occurred inside the window per coverage of the region." } }, { "statement": "At least 12 people are killed in Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, confirmed by two independent sources (BBC World, Al Jazeera).", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 45, "resolution": "Two independent sources (BBC World, Al Jazeera) report a confirmed death toll of at least 12 in Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, with the event window ending no later than 2026-08-28.", "deadline": "2026-09-02", "citations": [ 68, 71, 76 ], "failure_condition": "The combined reports from BBC World and Al Jazeera do not confirm at least 12 deaths in the specified window.", "id": "KKR-20260815-24", "date_issued": "2026-08-15", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-15_1726.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-15_1726.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-15T17:27:42.314417+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c95363fcc23197ed487cf080a1d62c87d515d1e6ab478d4023bc1dfd86ed9a98", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [68, 71, 76] carry the claim's operative terms (airstrike, israeli, killed, lebanon, southern, toll); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "At least one major wildfire in Europe causes over 100 evacuations between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, confirmed by two independent sources (BBC World, Al Jazeera).", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 20, "resolution": "Two independent sources (BBC World, Al Jazeera) report that a wildfire in Europe caused over 100 evacuations between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28.", "deadline": "2026-09-02", "citations": [ 20, 25, 40 ], "failure_condition": "No such wildfire is confirmed by two independent sources to have caused over 100 evacuations in Europe during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260815-25", "date_issued": "2026-08-15", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-15_1726.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-15_1726.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-15T17:27:42.314430+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3d0b7e1e893e4886959ab5d061031a4416f5f0e6b1106612bd4051996572f932", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [20, 25, 40] carry the claim's operative terms (evacuation, wildfire); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "A new political alliance is formally announced between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, confirmed by two independent sources (Al Jazeera, BBC World).", "domain": "political", "probability": 25, "resolution": "Two independent sources (Al Jazeera, BBC World) report the formal announcement of a new defense or political alliance between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28.", "deadline": "2026-09-02", "citations": [ 91 ], "failure_condition": "No such alliance is formally announced and confirmed by two independent sources within the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260815-26", "date_issued": "2026-08-15", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-15_1726.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-15_1726.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-15T17:27:42.314439+00:00", "seal_sha256": "306ef57a3a1a8d7001e81a8e23ee06fb4dbf245f9a2233c4ace04d0be8cb7a62", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable — defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, the CISA KEV catalog will include at least one new entry for a vulnerability exploited in the wild with a public exploit and a date-added value between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-20.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-20 for a vulnerability with a public exploit and confirmed active use in the wild.", "deadline": "2026-08-26", "citations": [ 8 ], "failure_condition": "No entry in the CISA KEV catalog has a date-added value between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-20 for a vulnerability with a public exploit and confirmed active use in the wild.", "id": "KKR-20260816-01", "date_issued": "2026-08-16", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "Clerk: KEV mirror, CVE-2025-62593 dateAdded 2026-08-17; public-exploit element per The Hacker News.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-16T15:18:16.986378+00:00", "seal_sha256": "532f5977d252fd14ec525424c334eaf0d73482e683b81d31bf409bf5b42d99c3", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable — defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": null }, "evidence": "CISA added CVE-2025-62593, the Ray code-injection flaw, to the KEV catalog on Aug 17, 2026 (CISA alert Aug 17; ComplianceHub Aug 2026), based on evidence of active exploitation, and The Hacker News (Aug 17-18, 2026) documents a public proof-of-concept exploit incorporated by the RondoDox botnet and active ShadowRay 2.0 campaigns against unpatched Ray instances." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, the USGS Significant Quakes catalog will record at least one earthquake with magnitude 6.0 or higher and a depth of 10 km or less in Indonesia.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 45, "resolution": "The USGS Significant Quakes catalog carries an event with magnitude ≥6.0 and depth ≤10 km in Indonesia between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 29, 39 ], "failure_condition": "No earthquake with magnitude ≥6.0 and depth ≤10 km is recorded in the USGS Significant Quakes catalog for Indonesia between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260816-02", "date_issued": "2026-08-16", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] The M7.7 Ende quake (depth 10 km) and its M6.2 and M6.1 aftershocks all occurred 08-14 to 08-15 per USGS, AJ, and ABC; no Indonesia M6.0-plus event during 08-21 to 08-24 appears in coverage of the closely watched aftershock sequence.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-16T15:18:16.986400+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5afa9e81c34501a8f0e4ff681a1f529d5ff82ef0db6387f7476c81673e47cf35", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [29, 39] carry the claim's operative terms (indonesia, quake, significant); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The M7.7 Ende quake (depth 10 km) and its M6.2 and M6.1 aftershocks all occurred 08-14 to 08-15 per USGS, AJ, and ABC; no Indonesia M6.0-plus event during 08-21 to 08-24 appears in coverage of the closely watched aftershock sequence." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, at least one drone strike will be reported in Kyiv by two or more independently biased outlets across hostile sides (RU, UA, WEST, AXIS) with corroborating reports.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 25, "resolution": "At least one drone strike in Kyiv is reported by two or more independently biased outlets across hostile sides (RU, UA, WEST, AXIS) with corroborating reports between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 1, 4 ], "failure_condition": "No drone strike in Kyiv is reported by two or more independently biased outlets across hostile sides (RU, UA, WEST, AXIS) with corroborating reports between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260816-03", "date_issued": "2026-08-16", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "Kyiv Oblast strikes 08-21 per ISW citing officials", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-16T15:18:16.986413+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e368a7e0ac65a676214993ea2213fe13b9fbad47ef0de937130ca00b85330a2a", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable — defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "operator", "verdicts": { "claude": "AMBIGUOUS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "ISW/Critical Threats 08-21, citing Ukrainian officials, reported Russian drones striking targets in Kyiv Oblast overnight into 08-21, giving WEST-plus-UA sourcing for a drone strike on Kyiv on at least one window day." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, the European Union will formally announce a new sanctions package targeting Iran's energy sector.", "domain": "political", "probability": 20, "resolution": "The European Union issues a public statement confirming a new sanctions package targeting Iran's energy sector between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 48 ], "failure_condition": "The European Union does not issue a public statement confirming a new sanctions package targeting Iran's energy sector between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260816-04", "date_issued": "2026-08-16", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Window coverage extensively documents the US sanctions escalation on Iran (oilprice 08-21 through 08-28) with no EU sanctions package on the Iranian energy sector announced 08-21 to 08-24.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-16T15:18:16.986422+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7dd9a52508055128a53c8cb013eaf02b95bb2c76fff74456422659cdba32e54c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable — defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Window coverage extensively documents the US sanctions escalation on Iran (oilprice 08-21 through 08-28) with no EU sanctions package on the Iranian energy sector announced 08-21 to 08-24." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a wildfire in Belgium will grow to exceed 1,000 hectares and be reported by at least two independent sources.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 40, "resolution": "A wildfire in Belgium exceeds 1,000 hectares in size and is reported by at least two independent sources between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 25 ], "failure_condition": "No wildfire in Belgium exceeds 1,000 hectares in size or is reported by at least two independent sources between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260816-05", "date_issued": "2026-08-16", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] The High Fens fire, the largest in Belgian history, burned about 3,000 hectares from 08-14 and remained active through 08-30 per Wikipedia date range, BBC 08-15, Reuters 08-16, AP 08-17, and AJ 08-16, so a Belgian wildfire exceeding 1,000 hectares existed throughout 08-21 to 08-24 with saturation multi-outlet coverage.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-16T15:18:16.986430+00:00", "seal_sha256": "302814d82a40f4601bf629bd0db8efd09bc65d3a4bc8be1d6e57775c61a5ed9b", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [25] carry the claim's operative terms (belgium, wildfire); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The High Fens fire, the largest in Belgian history, burned about 3,000 hectares from 08-14 and remained active through 08-30 per Wikipedia date range, BBC 08-15, Reuters 08-16, AP 08-17, and AJ 08-16, so a Belgian wildfire exceeding 1,000 hectares existed throughout 08-21 to 08-24 with saturation multi-outlet coverage." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce a rate hike of at least 25 basis points.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 15, "resolution": "The U.S. Federal Reserve announces a rate hike of at least 25 basis points between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 51 ], "failure_condition": "The U.S. Federal Reserve does not announce a rate hike of at least 25 basis points between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260816-06", "date_issued": "2026-08-16", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] No Fed rate action occurred in August; tradingeconomics and CNBC data dated 08-31 to 09-01 show markets pricing roughly 60 to 68 percent odds of a hike in September, with Governor Barr saying the Fed should be prepared to raise, which entails no hike had occurred.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-16T15:18:16.986438+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a3d87c3a1d8d8c08fa53df6662bef7aca5815f484822cda203f2a61cefddd0ec", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable — defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "No Fed rate action occurred in August; tradingeconomics and CNBC data dated 08-31 to 09-01 show markets pricing roughly 60 to 68 percent odds of a hike in September, with Governor Barr saying the Fed should be prepared to raise, which entails no hike had occurred." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a new cyberattack using AI-generated phishing content will be confirmed by at least two independent sources in the United States.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "A cyberattack using AI-generated phishing content is confirmed by at least two independent sources in the United States between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 16 ], "failure_condition": "No cyberattack using AI-generated phishing content is confirmed by at least two independent sources in the United States between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260816-07", "date_issued": "2026-08-16", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "no two-source US confirmation inside the window", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-16T15:18:16.986445+00:00", "seal_sha256": "868d4596efcee667a8319faf7726c0d5b1676e84458d7b402ed17893caa0b5c8", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable — defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "operator", "verdicts": { "claude": "AMBIGUOUS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "AI-enabled attack reporting was active in the period (THN 08-18 on the DeepSeek-driven campaign) but no two-source US confirmation of an AI-generated phishing attack dated 08-21 to 08-24 was located." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a major political scandal involving a U.S. federal official will be reported by two or more major U.S. news outlets with conflicting narratives.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "A major political scandal involving a U.S. federal official is reported by two or more major U.S. news outlets with conflicting narratives between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 96 ], "failure_condition": "No major political scandal involving a U.S. federal official is reported by two or more major U.S. news outlets with conflicting narratives between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260816-08", "date_issued": "2026-08-16", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "no qualifying scandal in window", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-16T15:18:16.986453+00:00", "seal_sha256": "599b66c64ab689e15688dd6ef24bc724e05bb664d8ebf17e73bc5b4ddc9ab94c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable — defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "operator", "verdicts": { "claude": "AMBIGUOUS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "No dominant new federal-official scandal emerged in 08-21 to 08-24 in searches; the major stories (ATF breach, QTFY disclosures) broke 08-26 onward." } }, { "statement": "At least one Russian air attack using missiles or drones causes an impact, explosion, or fire within Kyiv city between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 90, "resolution": "True if strikes on Kyiv city between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31 are reported by Ukrainian officials and by at least one Russian or non-Ukrainian international outlet.", "deadline": "2026-09-03", "citations": [ 64, 73 ], "failure_condition": "No Russian missile or drone strike impacts Kyiv city between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-01", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T02:09:38.348882+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6471e72183a0aa2d1ae30b7cd3b35c212f7459dd3b3b9d800efafcd1b02fcc1a", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [64, 73] carry the claim's operative terms (attack, kyiv, russian, strike, ukrainian); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Ukrainian drones or missiles strike a target at least 100 km from the Ukraine-Russia border inside Russia, causing fire, damage, or casualties, between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-15.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 88, "resolution": "True if Russian regional or federal officials acknowledge a Ukrainian drone or missile strike at least 100 km from the Ukraine border causing damage, fire, or casualties between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-15.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 69, 76 ], "failure_condition": "No Ukrainian strike at least 100 km inside Russia causing officially acknowledged damage, fire, or casualties occurs between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-15.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-02", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T02:09:38.348901+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d8016849e9a8c53d257ff3c86f628143c926141ef1fb61a5e5bfce7fceb38c4c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [69, 76] carry the claim's operative terms (drone, russia, russian, ukraine, ukraine-russia, ukrainian); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Houthi (Ansar Allah) forces take control of central Marib city, Yemen, between 2026-08-17 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 12, "resolution": "True if at least two major international news organizations report Houthi forces control central Marib city by 2026-12-31, with Yemeni government or coalition sources conceding withdrawal or loss.", "deadline": "2027-01-05", "citations": [ 62 ], "failure_condition": "Central Marib city remains under Yemeni government control through 2026-12-31.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-03", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T02:09:38.348912+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1425f63d0cda45a863aeb05ee9a21db0a81bb77a0bc903b5937b1120a2f209a0", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [62] carry the claim's operative terms (houthi, marib, yemen, yemeni); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-17 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 30, "resolution": "True if the official ICE Brent front-month settlement price is at or above 100.00 USD on any trading day from 2026-08-17 through 2026-10-30, per ICE settlement data.", "deadline": "2026-11-02", "citations": [ 43, 48, 68 ], "failure_condition": "Every ICE Brent front-month daily settlement from 2026-08-17 through 2026-10-30 is below 100.00 USD.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-04", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T02:09:38.348920+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b77f70c8e9e690085a668fe9fde6a1166721ca46734173e11340a682fbde6483", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Market-threshold claim with no reference level stated at seal; the keyed/keyless gap is unmeasurable and the entry defaults KEYED per 4.03/5.05 (market NOTE doctrine).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Authorities announce the arrest or charging of at least one suspect in the 2026-08-15 Virginia State shooting in which five people were shot, between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 75, "resolution": "True if a law enforcement agency publicly announces an arrest or charges in the 2026-08-15 Virginia State five-victim shooting, reported by at least one national outlet, by 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 14 ], "failure_condition": "No arrest or charges connected to the 2026-08-15 Virginia State shooting are announced by 2026-09-30.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-05", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T02:09:38.348927+00:00", "seal_sha256": "dd32407186901704c35158c7e717c663c17d179cc0b749048e7ee76b0c26c653", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [14] carry the claim's operative terms (five, five-victim, shot, state, suspect, virginia); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "At least one Russian air attack using missiles or drones causes an impact, explosion, or fire within Kyiv city between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "True if strikes on Kyiv city between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31 are reported by Ukrainian officials and by at least one Russian or non-Ukrainian international outlet.", "deadline": "2026-09-03", "citations": [ 64, 73 ], "failure_condition": "No Russian missile or drone strike impacts Kyiv city between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T02:09:38Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-01" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-06", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T02:09:39.843578+00:00", "seal_sha256": "535dc91ac25a1b470bdd31267fdbb1ad7f0c2ead5f8e0a0a59a7ec26b42d744d", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Ukrainian drones or missiles strike a target at least 100 km from the Ukraine-Russia border inside Russia, causing fire, damage, or casualties, between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-15.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "True if Russian regional or federal officials acknowledge a Ukrainian drone or missile strike at least 100 km from the Ukraine border causing damage, fire, or casualties between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-15.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 69, 76 ], "failure_condition": "No Ukrainian strike at least 100 km inside Russia causing officially acknowledged damage, fire, or casualties occurs between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-15.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T02:09:38Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-02" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-07", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T02:09:39.843598+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fb3d8852bcf45f67841cdcdecc4b8dbb819bb1f354e8f59a26598a51ae926523", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Houthi (Ansar Allah) forces take control of central Marib city, Yemen, between 2026-08-17 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "True if at least two major international news organizations report Houthi forces control central Marib city by 2026-12-31, with Yemeni government or coalition sources conceding withdrawal or loss.", "deadline": "2027-01-05", "citations": [ 62 ], "failure_condition": "Central Marib city remains under Yemeni government control through 2026-12-31.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T02:09:38Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-03" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-08", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T02:09:39.843608+00:00", "seal_sha256": "02971e2c959504b3d9a2472ded7aaefc2ece55611a4acfffee879bee988bb1c1", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-17 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "True if the official ICE Brent front-month settlement price is at or above 100.00 USD on any trading day from 2026-08-17 through 2026-10-30, per ICE settlement data.", "deadline": "2026-11-02", "citations": [ 43, 48, 68 ], "failure_condition": "Every ICE Brent front-month daily settlement from 2026-08-17 through 2026-10-30 is below 100.00 USD.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 16, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T02:09:38Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-04" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-09", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T02:09:39.843615+00:00", "seal_sha256": "bb8b38d98ecf1453d47fa0e9726f1b8f0d23de1549403577061fcc45fde5e757", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Authorities announce the arrest or charging of at least one suspect in the 2026-08-15 Virginia State shooting in which five people were shot, between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 31, "resolution": "True if a law enforcement agency publicly announces an arrest or charges in the 2026-08-15 Virginia State five-victim shooting, reported by at least one national outlet, by 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 14 ], "failure_condition": "No arrest or charges connected to the 2026-08-15 Virginia State shooting are announced by 2026-09-30.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3117, "n": 77, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T02:09:38Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-05" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-10", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T02:09:39.843622+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9e5a1dfa2e16b5c4a3160e07e5dd8e9658ad55e50579f46e5e8006962a770f2f", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Ukrainian long-range strikes halt loadings at a named Russian crude export terminal - Novorossiysk, Tuapse, Primorsk, or Ust-Luga - with the strike occurring between 2026-08-24 and 2026-09-21.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "Reuters or Bloomberg reports suspended loadings at one of those four terminals attributed to a strike inside the window, and a Russian federal or regional official confirms the attack, by 2026-09-24.", "deadline": "2026-09-24", "citations": [ 69, 76 ], "failure_condition": "No suspension of loadings at any of the four named terminals follows a strike occurring inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-11", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T02:09:40.565360+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2d647d8400a6f68469b05ef267c471a20194732e4812a7e4e852527cd2327d39", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [69, 76] carry the claim's operative terms (attack, russian, ukrainian); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent front-month futures settle at or above USD 100.00 per barrel on at least one trading session between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The ICE Futures Europe published daily settlement for the front-month Brent contract reaches 100.00 or higher on any session in that range, checked 2026-11-02.", "deadline": "2026-11-02", "citations": [ 43, 48 ], "failure_condition": "Every front-month Brent settlement inside the window prints below 100.00.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-12", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T02:09:40.565380+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f82c1db324e870a78f6c3a212d61b00eccf8dbdbe39b6080564768a9517b07ff", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Market-threshold claim with no reference level stated at seal; the keyed/keyless gap is unmeasurable and the entry defaults KEYED per 4.03/5.05 (market NOTE doctrine).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Walmart reports Walmart US comparable sales excluding fuel of 4.5 percent or higher for fiscal Q2 2027 in its scheduled 2026-08-20 earnings release.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The Q2 FY27 earnings release furnished on Form 8-K to SEC EDGAR states Walmart US comparable sales excluding fuel at or above 4.5 percent, checked 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-24", "citations": [ 46 ], "failure_condition": "The reported Walmart US comparable sales figure excluding fuel lands below 4.5 percent.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-13", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] Walmart Q2 FY27 earnings release (Bentonville, Aug 20, 2026, stock.walmart.com and corporate.walmart.com) states Walmart U.S. comp sales excluding fuel grew 2.6 percent for the 13 weeks ended July 31, 2026, including an 80 basis point health-and-wellness headwind; CNBC (Aug 20, 2026) reported the same 2.6 percent figure against a 3.8 percent consensus.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T02:09:40.565390+00:00", "seal_sha256": "449acb47279b6a3ef2a49998850bd986d3aff61898129f47c5ad30ad5c93b855", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior grounds the scheduled Walmart Q2 release in the record; the comparable-sales figure exists nowhere until the filing. KEYED under the attribution doctrine (2026-08-04); threshold gap additionally unmeasurable at seal.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": null }, "evidence": "Walmart Q2 FY27 earnings release (Bentonville, Aug 20, 2026, stock.walmart.com and corporate.walmart.com) states Walmart U.S. comp sales excluding fuel grew 2.6 percent for the 13 weeks ended July 31, 2026, including an 80 basis point health-and-wellness headwind; CNBC (Aug 20, 2026) reported the same 2.6 percent figure against a 3.8 percent consensus." } }, { "statement": "FDA publishes a Federal Register document on the FSMA Section 204 food traceability rule - proposed rule, final rule, or request for information - between 2026-08-24 and 2027-01-15.", "domain": "political", "probability": 30, "resolution": "federalregister.gov lists an FDA document naming food traceability in its title or abstract with a publication date inside that range, checked 2027-01-20.", "deadline": "2027-01-20", "citations": [ 90 ], "failure_condition": "No FDA food traceability document carries a Federal Register publication date inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-14", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T02:09:40.565397+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e8dcdcc67804d92b26921b559d3b1e77f938ef340f5ee160b33f94cc7eb67641", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior grounds the FSMA 204 traceability rule subject; the Federal Register action is not stated. KEYED under the attribution doctrine (2026-08-04).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "A second person is charged over the 2026-08-15 Virginia State University shooting, with the charges filed between 2026-08-17 and 2026-10-05.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 40, "resolution": "Chesterfield County Police, the Commonwealth Attorney, or Virginia online court records show charges against a second defendant filed inside that range, checked 2026-10-08.", "deadline": "2026-10-08", "citations": [ 14 ], "failure_condition": "Only the single person taken into custody on 2026-08-15 stands charged at the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-15", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T02:09:40.565404+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f071ab30fb41571a13a8f103e5a167f1519de55d783d49b9a47505d1c1e6564a", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [14] carry the claim's operative terms (state, virginia); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Ukrainian long-range strikes halt loadings at a named Russian crude export terminal - Novorossiysk, Tuapse, Primorsk, or Ust-Luga - with the strike occurring between 2026-08-24 and 2026-09-21.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "Reuters or Bloomberg reports suspended loadings at one of those four terminals attributed to a strike inside the window, and a Russian federal or regional official confirms the attack, by 2026-09-24.", "deadline": "2026-09-24", "citations": [ 69, 76 ], "failure_condition": "No suspension of loadings at any of the four named terminals follows a strike occurring inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T02:09:40Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-11" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-16", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T02:09:41.359288+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f4a653457ce947dfd60f568aa0ca9556e2b7fe20fe2cb6a3791d395c3b37e81f", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent front-month futures settle at or above USD 100.00 per barrel on at least one trading session between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The ICE Futures Europe published daily settlement for the front-month Brent contract reaches 100.00 or higher on any session in that range, checked 2026-11-02.", "deadline": "2026-11-02", "citations": [ 43, 48 ], "failure_condition": "Every front-month Brent settlement inside the window prints below 100.00.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 16, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T02:09:40Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-12" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-17", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T02:09:41.359306+00:00", "seal_sha256": "551c712660feb257dbd5f2442df23fb47e490532de7210c212553ad14407da9c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Walmart reports Walmart US comparable sales excluding fuel of 4.5 percent or higher for fiscal Q2 2027 in its scheduled 2026-08-20 earnings release.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The Q2 FY27 earnings release furnished on Form 8-K to SEC EDGAR states Walmart US comparable sales excluding fuel at or above 4.5 percent, checked 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-24", "citations": [ 46 ], "failure_condition": "The reported Walmart US comparable sales figure excluding fuel lands below 4.5 percent.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 16, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T02:09:40Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-13" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-18", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] Walmart Q2 FY27 earnings release (Bentonville, Aug 20, 2026, stock.walmart.com and corporate.walmart.com) states Walmart U.S. comp sales excluding fuel grew 2.6 percent for the 13 weeks ended July 31, 2026, including an 80 basis point health-and-wellness headwind; CNBC (Aug 20, 2026) reported the same 2.6 percent figure against a 3.8 percent consensus.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T02:09:41.359317+00:00", "seal_sha256": "449acb47279b6a3ef2a49998850bd986d3aff61898129f47c5ad30ad5c93b855", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": null }, "evidence": "Walmart Q2 FY27 earnings release (Bentonville, Aug 20, 2026, stock.walmart.com and corporate.walmart.com) states Walmart U.S. comp sales excluding fuel grew 2.6 percent for the 13 weeks ended July 31, 2026, including an 80 basis point health-and-wellness headwind; CNBC (Aug 20, 2026) reported the same 2.6 percent figure against a 3.8 percent consensus." } }, { "statement": "FDA publishes a Federal Register document on the FSMA Section 204 food traceability rule - proposed rule, final rule, or request for information - between 2026-08-24 and 2027-01-15.", "domain": "political", "probability": 29, "resolution": "federalregister.gov lists an FDA document naming food traceability in its title or abstract with a publication date inside that range, checked 2027-01-20.", "deadline": "2027-01-20", "citations": [ 90 ], "failure_condition": "No FDA food traceability document carries a Federal Register publication date inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2857, "n": 21, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T02:09:40Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-14" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-19", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T02:09:41.359325+00:00", "seal_sha256": "555c9ef1823df443de3b7f364ea0917ee708a725664fc0bafd70f17c414d3e26", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "A second person is charged over the 2026-08-15 Virginia State University shooting, with the charges filed between 2026-08-17 and 2026-10-05.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 31, "resolution": "Chesterfield County Police, the Commonwealth Attorney, or Virginia online court records show charges against a second defendant filed inside that range, checked 2026-10-08.", "deadline": "2026-10-08", "citations": [ 14 ], "failure_condition": "Only the single person taken into custody on 2026-08-15 stands charged at the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3117, "n": 77, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T02:09:40Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-15" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-20", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T02:09:41.359332+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fab7bd188bfb675edc50991bb2d58647bec9cb2b17e73dcfcc76f20776c8ef3b", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-20, Qatar and Iran issue public statements that converge on a single account of the fate of the three Iranian pilots Qatar allegedly shot down in March 2026, either confirming them alive and held or confirming their deaths.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 15, "resolution": "TRUE if Qatar and Iran state the same outcome for the three named pilots, reported by Reuters, AP, or AFP, between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-20; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 79 ], "failure_condition": "MISS if Qatar's denial and Iran's captivity claim both remain unretracted and unreconciled through the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-21", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T02:09:42.090308+00:00", "seal_sha256": "af9d30267a890e80929e59194aebaeb287452b58c1b204503c85e14500c8b129", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [79] carry the claim's operative terms (down, iran, iranian, pilot, qatar, three); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-15, the United States government takes a formal, documented action asserting a sovereignty or territorial claim over any part of the Strait of Hormuz, beyond rhetorical statements by the President.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 6, "resolution": "TRUE if the Federal Register, a State Department notice, or a wire service reports a formal US filing or action claiming sovereignty over Hormuz waters between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-15; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-17", "citations": [ 68 ], "failure_condition": "MISS if no formal US filing, order, or notification asserting a Hormuz sovereignty claim occurs within the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-22", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T02:09:42.090328+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8ec027f684f2c0d0a2026419959202757435b96803a1239d0bd3a6d1f1680623", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [68] carry the claim's operative terms (hormuz, strait); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31, a cybersecurity vendor or outlet other than BleepingComputer, such as Krebs on Security, The Hacker News, Malwarebytes, SentinelOne, or Objective-See, publishes independent research naming and attributing the AmnesiaStealer macOS malware campaign.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 32, "resolution": "TRUE if a named second security vendor or outlet publishes independent attribution of AmnesiaStealer between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-02", "citations": [ 15 ], "failure_condition": "MISS if the AmnesiaStealer campaign receives no independent second-source attribution within the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-23", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T02:09:42.090339+00:00", "seal_sha256": "85c52fa3342dd9a81dfa0be6b51f075ee4eb4e30532d75567848937fc516c74b", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [15] carry the claim's operative terms (amnesiastealer, maco, malware, malwarebyte); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-20, the US Navy or Department of Defense publicly confirms that USS George Washington has relieved USS Abraham Lincoln on its Middle East deployment station.", "domain": "political", "probability": 40, "resolution": "TRUE if DoD or Navy public affairs, or a wire service citing an on-record defense official, confirms the Lincoln to George Washington handover between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-20; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 96 ], "failure_condition": "MISS if the Lincoln to George Washington handover is not officially confirmed within the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-24", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T02:09:42.090348+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9f5645000f0c036beebbc3284fb1007665d78eb13c76261768b332ff6a5fbbc5", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior grounds the carrier deployment subject in the record; the confirmation event is not stated. KEYED under the attribution doctrine (2026-08-04).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-20, Qatar and Iran issue public statements that converge on a single account of the fate of the three Iranian pilots Qatar allegedly shot down in March 2026, either confirming them alive and held or confirming their deaths.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "TRUE if Qatar and Iran state the same outcome for the three named pilots, reported by Reuters, AP, or AFP, between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-20; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 79 ], "failure_condition": "MISS if Qatar's denial and Iran's captivity claim both remain unretracted and unreconciled through the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T02:09:42Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-21" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-25", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T02:09:44.162310+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d09938e064e0d5a50ac39b1d73aea59342663c492e29150824844a496279cfa9", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-15, the United States government takes a formal, documented action asserting a sovereignty or territorial claim over any part of the Strait of Hormuz, beyond rhetorical statements by the President.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "TRUE if the Federal Register, a State Department notice, or a wire service reports a formal US filing or action claiming sovereignty over Hormuz waters between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-15; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-17", "citations": [ 68 ], "failure_condition": "MISS if no formal US filing, order, or notification asserting a Hormuz sovereignty claim occurs within the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T02:09:42Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-22" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-26", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T02:09:44.162330+00:00", "seal_sha256": "71160312703f60c48b0d5c7eab374aae07f580587a49776be58b501632b0c500", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31, a cybersecurity vendor or outlet other than BleepingComputer, such as Krebs on Security, The Hacker News, Malwarebytes, SentinelOne, or Objective-See, publishes independent research naming and attributing the AmnesiaStealer macOS malware campaign.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 23, "resolution": "TRUE if a named second security vendor or outlet publishes independent attribution of AmnesiaStealer between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-02", "citations": [ 15 ], "failure_condition": "MISS if the AmnesiaStealer campaign receives no independent second-source attribution within the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2308, "n": 13, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T02:09:42Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-23" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-27", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T02:09:44.162342+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9e5fd28867694c4bfdd70986ca6ed1051f089b73efa1310c616b08045f80dd1e", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-20, the US Navy or Department of Defense publicly confirms that USS George Washington has relieved USS Abraham Lincoln on its Middle East deployment station.", "domain": "political", "probability": 29, "resolution": "TRUE if DoD or Navy public affairs, or a wire service citing an on-record defense official, confirms the Lincoln to George Washington handover between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-20; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 96 ], "failure_condition": "MISS if the Lincoln to George Washington handover is not officially confirmed within the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2857, "n": 21, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T02:09:42Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-24" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-16_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-28", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-16_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T02:09:44.162351+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6d21b05e1aaaa09b57d24da0914da6ba4b9a01918b606f2139022fe0798ffdab", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "On 2026-08-21, the CISA KEV catalog will include CVE-2025-62593 with a date-added value of 2026-08-18.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 90, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog carries a record with the identifier CVE-2025-62593 and a date-added value of 2026-08-18.", "deadline": "2026-08-24", "citations": [ 18 ], "failure_condition": "CVE-2025-62593 is not listed in the CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value of 2026-08-18.", "id": "KKR-20260817-29", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "Clerk: KEV mirror, dateAdded 2026-08-17, not 08-18.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T15:40:32.671499+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9be40ae6e2b66822bf8efe419282ef8f5d58e73723059437cbe616f6f6c374a2", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable — defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": null }, "evidence": "CISA published its alert adding CVE-2025-62593 (Ray code injection) to the KEV catalog on Aug 17, 2026, with a BOD 26-04 federal remediation deadline of Aug 20; ComplianceHub (Aug 2026) and The Hacker News (Aug 17-18, 2026) both give the catalog date-added as Aug 17, 2026, consistent with the three-day deadline, not the Aug 18 value the criterion requires." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a drone strike will be reported in Kyiv with at least one corroborating report from a hostile side.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 65, "resolution": "At least one report from a hostile side (RU, UA, AXIS, or WEST) confirms a drone strike in Kyiv between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-26", "citations": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113, 114, 115, 116, 117, 118, 119, 120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 125, 126 ], "failure_condition": "No report from a hostile side confirms a drone strike in Kyiv between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260817-30", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] ISW/Critical Threats (Aug 22, 2026) relays Ukrainian Railways CEO Oleksandr Pertsovsky reporting a Russian strike on a railway enterprise in Kyiv City on the night of Aug 21-22 that killed one employee, and its Aug 21 assessment lists Kyiv Oblast among the regions where Ukrainian officials reported Russian drone impacts from the 135-drone overnight package; both are Ukrainian-side (UA) confirmations inside Aug 21-24.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T15:40:32.671524+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6f1a437a3eb34d966c6472396cd0f3b5f42360b82ede76a8f2f789400f74db79", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 92, 95] carry the claim's operative terms (corroborating, drone, strike); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": null }, "evidence": "ISW/Critical Threats (Aug 22, 2026) relays Ukrainian Railways CEO Oleksandr Pertsovsky reporting a Russian strike on a railway enterprise in Kyiv City on the night of Aug 21-22 that killed one employee, and its Aug 21 assessment lists Kyiv Oblast among the regions where Ukrainian officials reported Russian drone impacts from the 135-drone overnight package; both are Ukrainian-side (UA) confirmations inside Aug 21-24." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a cyberattack exploiting CVE-2025-62593 will be confirmed by two independent sources.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "Two independent sources (not from the same outlet or network) confirm a cyberattack exploiting CVE-2025-62593 between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-26", "citations": [ 18 ], "failure_condition": "No two independent sources confirm a cyberattack exploiting CVE-2025-62593 between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260817-31", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] Reporting on exploitation of CVE-2025-62593 clusters around the Aug 17, 2026 KEV addition, with The Hacker News (Aug 17-18, 2026) and CyberUpdates365 (Aug 2026) citing the March 2026 BitSight RondoDox findings and the Oligo ShadowRay 2.0 campaign; no source located confirms a cyberattack exploiting the flaw that occurred or was first reported between Aug 21 and Aug 24, 2026.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T15:40:32.671539+00:00", "seal_sha256": "64d0659682617c3ea7dbfd412dae2af34d7ceebccff797a37aaadd162aa0f60b", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable — defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": null }, "evidence": "Reporting on exploitation of CVE-2025-62593 clusters around the Aug 17, 2026 KEV addition, with The Hacker News (Aug 17-18, 2026) and CyberUpdates365 (Aug 2026) citing the March 2026 BitSight RondoDox findings and the Oligo ShadowRay 2.0 campaign; no source located confirms a cyberattack exploiting the flaw that occurred or was first reported between Aug 21 and Aug 24, 2026." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a wildfire will be reported in France with at least one corroborating report from a hostile side.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 45, "resolution": "At least one report from a hostile side (IL, PS, AXIS, or WEST) confirms a wildfire in France between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-26", "citations": [ 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113, 114, 115, 116, 117, 118, 119, 120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 125, 126 ], "failure_condition": "No report from a hostile side confirms a wildfire in France between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260817-32", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] The French wildfire-monitoring association Feux de Foret (feuxdeforet.fr, read Aug 26, 2026) lists 654 validated fires in France in the prior 30 days and shows the Luglon/Morcenx-la-Nouvelle fire in the Landes (started Aug 13, roughly 170 ha) still tracked as active with updates through late August, alongside the Saumos, Biscarrosse and Bellegarde-en-Diois fires; its Aug 19 and Aug 21 articles cover the Gros Bessillon extinction and the FireWatch detection platform, and Wikipedia describes 2026 as the worst French fire season since 1949 with 115,000 ha burned.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T15:40:32.671548+00:00", "seal_sha256": "da25968c5ed4f242d070173ed2a9d53e057ece30a8d3e498f0dfbcf7aea3f13e", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [31, 32, 36, 43] carry the claim's operative terms (france, wildfire); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": null }, "evidence": "The French wildfire-monitoring association Feux de Foret (feuxdeforet.fr, read Aug 26, 2026) lists 654 validated fires in France in the prior 30 days and shows the Luglon/Morcenx-la-Nouvelle fire in the Landes (started Aug 13, roughly 170 ha) still tracked as active with updates through late August, alongside the Saumos, Biscarrosse and Bellegarde-en-Diois fires; its Aug 19 and Aug 21 articles cover the Gros Bessillon extinction and the FireWatch detection platform, and Wikipedia describes 2026 as the worst French fire season since 1949 with 115,000 ha burned." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a drone strike will be reported in Khan Younis with at least one corroborating report from a hostile side.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 70, "resolution": "At least one report from a hostile side (IL, PS, AXIS, or WEST) confirms a drone strike in Khan Younis between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-26", "citations": [ 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113, 114, 115, 116, 117, 118, 119, 120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 125, 126 ], "failure_condition": "No report from a hostile side confirms a drone strike in Khan Younis between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260817-33", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] Middle East Eye live blog (Aug 23, 2026) citing the Palestinian news agency WAFA reported an Israeli drone strike north of Khan Younis that wounded six Palestinians when two missiles hit a tent near the Albanian mosque, with four more wounded in a separate attack north of the city the same day; Al Jazeera (Aug 25, 2026) reported a further drone strike in Khan Younis al-Mawasi area on Aug 25.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T15:40:32.671556+00:00", "seal_sha256": "018d8b270a6841431259ebd23dffcd86420c6393da1f6fa089a120b54f1914e3", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [4, 7, 8, 92, 95] carry the claim's operative terms (corroborating, drone, strike); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": null }, "evidence": "Middle East Eye live blog (Aug 23, 2026) citing the Palestinian news agency WAFA reported an Israeli drone strike north of Khan Younis that wounded six Palestinians when two missiles hit a tent near the Albanian mosque, with four more wounded in a separate attack north of the city the same day; Al Jazeera (Aug 25, 2026) reported a further drone strike in Khan Younis al-Mawasi area on Aug 25." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a large-scale DDoS attack will disrupt Threema secure messaging service.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 55, "resolution": "A large-scale DDoS attack will be confirmed to have disrupted Threema secure messaging service between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-26", "citations": [ 26 ], "failure_condition": "No large-scale DDoS attack is confirmed to have disrupted Threema secure messaging service between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260817-34", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] the Threema post-incident statement (Aug 14, 2026) and coverage by BleepingComputer, Security Affairs (Aug 16, 2026) and Cybersecurity News date the large-scale DDoS attacks to Tuesday evening Aug 11 through Wednesday morning Aug 12, 2026, with four hours of complete unavailability, after which Threema deployed upstream DDoS filtering; no source reports a further DDoS disruption of Threema between Aug 21 and Aug 24.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T15:40:32.671564+00:00", "seal_sha256": "11230337a113bdb52ae526cc91b850cb535f543f3ab7084449a1ff7f78412ba0", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [26] carry the claim's operative terms (attack, ddos, disrupt, disrupted, large-scale, messaging); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": null }, "evidence": "the Threema post-incident statement (Aug 14, 2026) and coverage by BleepingComputer, Security Affairs (Aug 16, 2026) and Cybersecurity News date the large-scale DDoS attacks to Tuesday evening Aug 11 through Wednesday morning Aug 12, 2026, with four hours of complete unavailability, after which Threema deployed upstream DDoS filtering; no source reports a further DDoS disruption of Threema between Aug 21 and Aug 24." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a drone strike will be reported in Moscow with at least one corroborating report from a hostile side.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 60, "resolution": "At least one report from a hostile side (RU, UA, IL, or WEST) confirms a drone strike in Moscow between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-26", "citations": [ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113, 114, 115, 116, 117, 118, 119, 120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 125, 126 ], "failure_condition": "No report from a hostile side confirms a drone strike in Moscow between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260817-35", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "Lenient reading: RU-side (TASS/Sobyanin) reports drones downed on approach with debris in Moscow; a strict reader would rule miss.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T15:40:32.671572+00:00", "seal_sha256": "50925167624465589432fc128c6f1938be684e5fbfb9861493f0a7c8d4180382", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 92, 95] carry the claim's operative terms (corroborating, drone, strike); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": null }, "evidence": "TASS (Aug 23, 2026) reported Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin stating that air defenses shot down six drones flying toward Moscow with emergency crews working at the debris sites, and TASS (Aug 22, 2026) reported the Sobyanin tally of more than 2,500 drones sent toward the Moscow region since Aug 15 with 493 destroyed on the approach to the city; ABC News (Aug 26, 2026) reported Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow resuming after a pause for the CIA directors visit." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a drone strike will be reported in Dnipro with at least one corroborating report from a hostile side.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 65, "resolution": "At least one report from a hostile side (RU, UA, or AXIS) confirms a drone strike in Dnipro between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-26", "citations": [ 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113, 114, 115, 116, 117, 118, 119, 120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 125, 126 ], "failure_condition": "No report from a hostile side confirms a drone strike in Dnipro between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260817-36", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T15:40:32.671579+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f1983820ac882afc77ad9e6acef88beac591df54ec41df4dcb74be6a3b4c35f7", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [92, 95] carry the claim's operative terms (drone, strike); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a drone strike will be reported in Nablus with at least one corroborating report from a hostile side.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 70, "resolution": "At least one report from a hostile side (AXIS, PS, or IL) confirms a drone strike in Nablus between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-26", "citations": [ 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113, 114, 115, 116, 117, 118, 119, 120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 125, 126 ], "failure_condition": "No report from a hostile side confirms a drone strike in Nablus between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260817-37", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "[jury] Middle East Eye (Aug 23, 2026) and Reuters via US News (Aug 23, 2026) reported an Israeli raid on the Askar refugee camp east of Nablus in which a 14-year-old was shot dead, plus raids on Beita, Tal and Beit Dajan and the continuing settler siege of Qusra; none of the Nablus-area incidents between Aug 21 and Aug 24 involved a drone strike, and no IL, PS or Axis-side report of a drone strike in Nablus was found.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T15:40:32.671586+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d062deb2c74466bb85ca4b5a5fb39c969db8ccb90d30c85fd8b3c46043c91b33", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [7, 8, 92, 95] carry the claim's operative terms (corroborating, drone, strike); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": null }, "evidence": "Middle East Eye (Aug 23, 2026) and Reuters via US News (Aug 23, 2026) reported an Israeli raid on the Askar refugee camp east of Nablus in which a 14-year-old was shot dead, plus raids on Beita, Tal and Beit Dajan and the continuing settler siege of Qusra; none of the Nablus-area incidents between Aug 21 and Aug 24 involved a drone strike, and no IL, PS or Axis-side report of a drone strike in Nablus was found." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a drone strike will be reported in Sumy with at least one corroborating report from a hostile side.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 65, "resolution": "At least one report from a hostile side (RU, UA, or AXIS) confirms a drone strike in Sumy between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-26", "citations": [ 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113, 114, 115, 116, 117, 118, 119, 120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 125, 126 ], "failure_condition": "No report from a hostile side confirms a drone strike in Sumy between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260817-38", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-08-27", "notes": "Lenient reading: UA-side reports are oblast-level (Sumy Oblast MA via ISW); no Sumy-city item located.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T15:40:32.671593+00:00", "seal_sha256": "00b23141c087c97ee34ad28f945016ac73ef8728d51b9adf69f0c1509d518cfb", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [92, 95] carry the claim's operative terms (drone, strike); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": null }, "evidence": "ISW/Critical Threats (Aug 21 and Aug 23, 2026) relays Ukrainian officials, including the Sumy Oblast Military Administration Telegram channel, reporting Russian drone strikes that damaged commercial, residential, agricultural and electrical infrastructure in Sumy Oblast during the 135-drone package of Aug 20-21 and the 127-drone package of Aug 22-23." } }, { "statement": "The United States military strikes a target inside Oman between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 8, "resolution": "TRUE if Reuters, AP, or BBC report a US military strike on Omani territory or territorial waters between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-17", "citations": [ 82, 109, 119 ], "failure_condition": "The United States does not strike any target inside Oman between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-39", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:31.310509+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9c634bc0bbf129da4bb78cca930e806b6ab5a93174b3eb114eba96cafe6abc8c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [82, 109, 119] carry the claim's operative terms (oman, omani); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "WTI crude oil settles at or above 90.00 USD per barrel on any trading day between 2026-08-17 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 34, "resolution": "TRUE if the CME/NYMEX WTI front-month settlement price is at or above 90.00 USD per barrel on any trading day between 2026-08-17 and 2026-10-15; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 54, 72 ], "failure_condition": "WTI crude oil never settles at or above 90.00 USD per barrel between 2026-08-17 and 2026-10-15.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-40", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:31.310531+00:00", "seal_sha256": "91b769c499ee763f1c0db3c40fd350f7d43db9b340df34c0a84bd49fb518cdf6", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Market-threshold claim with no reference level stated at seal; the keyed/keyless gap is unmeasurable and the entry defaults KEYED per 4.03/5.05 (market NOTE doctrine).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "CISA adds a VMware vCenter Server CVE to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a Date Added value between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 37, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog lists a VMware vCenter Server entry with Date Added between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-17", "citations": [ 23 ], "failure_condition": "No VMware vCenter Server CVE is added to the CISA KEV catalog between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-41", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:31.310541+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0aa998692bf12310c940040429e915d4b0e7e96948bf8398753e5f69d5cfe59d", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [23] carry the claim's operative terms (exploited, vcenter, vmware); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Philips or GE publicly confirms data theft from the Clop-attributed breach between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 44, "resolution": "TRUE if a company statement, SEC filing, or wire report quotes Philips or GE confirming data theft between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-30; FALSE if both remain in investigating or denied status.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 18 ], "failure_condition": "Neither Philips nor GE confirms data theft; both remain in investigating or denied status through 2026-09-30.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-42", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:31.310549+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3c9641132837f50e0e00e3896fc7406bd51dde4d7179cd6d20aba2335712c650", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [18] carry the claim's operative terms (clop-attributed, investigating, philip, theft); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Zambian prosecutors file formal criminal charges against at least one arrested opposition figure between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31.", "domain": "political", "probability": 47, "resolution": "TRUE if Reuters, AP, or BBC report formal charges filed against an arrested Zambian opposition figure between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-03", "citations": [ 115 ], "failure_condition": "All arrested Zambian opposition figures are released without charge, or remain uncharged, through 2026-08-31.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-43", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:31.310557+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9ba60bbd3df33fb9d2f3338fe4ed775e3d5b39ba44f0c1b2c71d897c8df313c1", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [115] carry the claim's operative terms (arrested, figure, opposition, zambian); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "The World Health Organization declares the Democratic Republic of the Congo Ebola outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern between 2026-08-17 and 2026-11-14.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 17, "resolution": "TRUE if the WHO Director-General publishes a PHEIC declaration naming the DRC Ebola outbreak between 2026-08-17 and 2026-11-14; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-11-17", "citations": [ 116 ], "failure_condition": "The WHO does not declare a PHEIC for the DRC Ebola outbreak between 2026-08-17 and 2026-11-14.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-44", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:31.310563+00:00", "seal_sha256": "197caf055787bb6013e28ae0c50d83d49dea4bd62d3417d61832e81490b0c694", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [116] carry the claim's operative terms (congo, democratic, ebola, outbreak, republic); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Virginia prosecutors file adult criminal charges against the campus shooting suspect between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 55, "resolution": "TRUE if a Virginia court record, AP, or BBC report states the suspect faces adult criminal charges between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14; FALSE if the case remains exclusively juvenile.", "deadline": "2026-09-17", "citations": [ 12 ], "failure_condition": "The suspect is not charged as an adult, or remains uncharged, through 2026-09-14.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-45", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:31.310570+00:00", "seal_sha256": "40a12e4b4639d852599e3fc8f7b148b57ff4223c719360c238bb309c595a6522", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [12] carry the claim's operative terms (campu, shooting, suspect, virginia); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31, a cybersecurity vendor or outlet other than BleepingComputer, such as Krebs on Security, The Hacker News, Malwarebytes, SentinelOne, or Objective-See, publishes independent research naming and attributing the AmnesiaStealer macOS malware campaign.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 23, "resolution": "TRUE if a named second security vendor or outlet publishes independent attribution of AmnesiaStealer between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-02", "citations": [ 15 ], "failure_condition": "MISS if the AmnesiaStealer campaign receives no independent second-source attribution within the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2308, "n": 13, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T18:13:31Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-23" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-46", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:32.398983+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9e5fd28867694c4bfdd70986ca6ed1051f089b73efa1310c616b08045f80dd1e", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "The United States military strikes a target inside Oman between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "TRUE if Reuters, AP, or BBC report a US military strike on Omani territory or territorial waters between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-17", "citations": [ 82, 109, 119 ], "failure_condition": "The United States does not strike any target inside Oman between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T18:13:31Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-39" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-47", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:32.399004+00:00", "seal_sha256": "438547fd5b6fc13e6cc83d9602bd39423a7b0b1bd0100f1cadb05f13f4ea5f3b", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "WTI crude oil settles at or above 90.00 USD per barrel on any trading day between 2026-08-17 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if the CME/NYMEX WTI front-month settlement price is at or above 90.00 USD per barrel on any trading day between 2026-08-17 and 2026-10-15; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 54, 72 ], "failure_condition": "WTI crude oil never settles at or above 90.00 USD per barrel between 2026-08-17 and 2026-10-15.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 16, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T18:13:31Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-40" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-48", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:32.399015+00:00", "seal_sha256": "75e527be65a86b5c7d7b855bbf9e682be6b4067385f99162f149c5765137ea19", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "CISA adds a VMware vCenter Server CVE to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a Date Added value between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 23, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog lists a VMware vCenter Server entry with Date Added between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-17", "citations": [ 23 ], "failure_condition": "No VMware vCenter Server CVE is added to the CISA KEV catalog between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2308, "n": 13, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T18:13:31Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-41" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-49", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:32.399025+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ef3b5a1325f615daab53592d462419167692335388597911a064e2d3e69a7a86", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Philips or GE publicly confirms data theft from the Clop-attributed breach between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 23, "resolution": "TRUE if a company statement, SEC filing, or wire report quotes Philips or GE confirming data theft between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-30; FALSE if both remain in investigating or denied status.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 18 ], "failure_condition": "Neither Philips nor GE confirms data theft; both remain in investigating or denied status through 2026-09-30.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2308, "n": 13, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T18:13:31Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-42" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-50", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:32.399033+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0a8261f7317cc73dc8e689c2cfc7acecf22e5444532be0ec91117e673dc81ab8", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Zambian prosecutors file formal criminal charges against at least one arrested opposition figure between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31.", "domain": "political", "probability": 29, "resolution": "TRUE if Reuters, AP, or BBC report formal charges filed against an arrested Zambian opposition figure between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-03", "citations": [ 115 ], "failure_condition": "All arrested Zambian opposition figures are released without charge, or remain uncharged, through 2026-08-31.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2857, "n": 21, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T18:13:31Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-43" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-51", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:32.399041+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d73c0c7e28dbf8f0f1885c1318a78779a1061ee47756561cc77ac99d064e6343", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "The World Health Organization declares the Democratic Republic of the Congo Ebola outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern between 2026-08-17 and 2026-11-14.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if the WHO Director-General publishes a PHEIC declaration naming the DRC Ebola outbreak between 2026-08-17 and 2026-11-14; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-11-17", "citations": [ 116 ], "failure_condition": "The WHO does not declare a PHEIC for the DRC Ebola outbreak between 2026-08-17 and 2026-11-14.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T18:13:31Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-44" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-52", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:32.399048+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2029b770b0c194ce24f332dd0584bca5624a665772c00189447c7c7f07df4302", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Virginia prosecutors file adult criminal charges against the campus shooting suspect between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 31, "resolution": "TRUE if a Virginia court record, AP, or BBC report states the suspect faces adult criminal charges between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14; FALSE if the case remains exclusively juvenile.", "deadline": "2026-09-17", "citations": [ 12 ], "failure_condition": "The suspect is not charged as an adult, or remains uncharged, through 2026-09-14.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3117, "n": 77, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T18:13:31Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-45" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-53", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:32.399055+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2d60cd2c2821cffd8fe27639f7c9be5bb469b507053b8317095638f903a0bcf9", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-18 and 2026-09-17 at least one drone attack on Moscow city or Moscow oblast is reported by the Moscow mayor or the Russian Ministry of Defense and by at least one Ukrainian or Western outlet.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 85, "resolution": "True if a drone attack on Moscow city or oblast occurring 2026-08-18 through 2026-09-17 is reported by Russian official channels and by at least one of Reuters, AP, BBC, or a Ukrainian outlet.", "deadline": "2026-09-21", "citations": [ 92 ], "failure_condition": "No drone attack on Moscow city or Moscow oblast occurs within the window that is acknowledged on the Russian side and independently reported on the Ukrainian or Western side.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-54", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:33.220704+00:00", "seal_sha256": "12b7392dd0bed4e1c1a1fa55f000b2c987cbd1d317d9f74a460f8fba6dc8680e", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [92] carry the claim's operative terms (russian, ukrainian); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-18 and 2026-09-30 the United States conducts a military strike on targets inside the territory of Oman.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 10, "resolution": "True if at least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, or BBC report a US military strike on targets inside Omani territory occurring between 2026-08-18 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 82, 102 ], "failure_condition": "No US military strike on Omani territory occurs within the event window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-55", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:33.220725+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c3c7a5c0c87b8ee831967d94d0f745117cfa665697a82b6d566f249023f95377", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [82, 102] carry the claim's operative terms (oman, omani); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-30 United States ground forces conduct combat operations inside the internationally recognized territory of Iran.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 18, "resolution": "True if at least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, or BBC report US ground forces engaged in combat operations inside Iran between 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-30.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 83, 99 ], "failure_condition": "US military action against Iran within the window remains limited to air, missile, naval, or covert means, with no ground combat operations inside Iranian territory.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-56", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:33.220735+00:00", "seal_sha256": "34a742ffabb92d2a284567e8f1d89ac324394b91c5871c2952993717eacfaaa5", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [83] carry the claim's operative terms (ground, iran, operation); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "The US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield published in FRED series DGS10 is at or above 5.00 percent for at least one business day between 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 40, "resolution": "True if any DGS10 daily value published by FRED for dates 2026-08-18 through 2026-11-30 is at or above 5.00.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 59, 65 ], "failure_condition": "Every DGS10 daily reading in the window is below 5.00 percent.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-57", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:33.220743+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1c4dd9f76d4d8b19c2507e5107601609bc782e34b943f02d9ecdccf30ca13ed1", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Market-threshold claim with no reference level stated at seal; the keyed/keyless gap is unmeasurable and the entry defaults KEYED per 4.03/5.05 (market NOTE doctrine).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "A CVE identifier for the Microsoft Defender vulnerability publicly tracked as ShieldBreak is added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-18 and 2026-10-16.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 60, "resolution": "True if the CISA KEV catalog gains an entry for a Microsoft Defender vulnerability, identified in vendor or CISA documentation as ShieldBreak, with dateAdded between 2026-08-18 and 2026-10-16.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 22 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry attributable to the ShieldBreak Defender vulnerability carries a dateAdded value within the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-58", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:33.220750+00:00", "seal_sha256": "47956364135343088f3eb9e3707279534488a1507980b035734098b4ceb95109", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [22] carry the claim's operative terms (defender, microsoft, shieldbreak); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-30 the WHO Director-General declares the Democratic Republic of the Congo Ebola outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 25, "resolution": "True if WHO publishes a Director-General statement declaring the DRC Ebola outbreak a PHEIC, dated between 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-30.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 116 ], "failure_condition": "No WHO PHEIC declaration covering the DRC Ebola outbreak is issued within the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-59", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:33.220758+00:00", "seal_sha256": "649a56446429bfd0c2f42b37c03ba386c286fb59325d1ccf655774e27461b880", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [116] carry the claim's operative terms (congo, democratic, ebola, outbreak, republic); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "No candidate wins a majority of valid votes in the first round of the Brazilian presidential election held on 2026-10-04, sending the contest to a second round per official TSE results.", "domain": "political", "probability": 75, "resolution": "True if official TSE first-round results for the 2026-10-04 Brazilian presidential election show no candidate above 50 percent of valid votes, requiring a second round.", "deadline": "2026-10-09", "citations": [ 85 ], "failure_condition": "A candidate wins more than 50 percent of valid first-round votes, deciding the presidency without a runoff.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-60", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:33.220764+00:00", "seal_sha256": "dd99681491e66e2f5abef94944308b6371382b8afba49a05e275f2904a55225a", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [85] carry the claim's operative terms (brazilian, presidential); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Authorities announce the arrest or charging of at least one suspect in the 2026-08-15 Virginia State shooting in which five people were shot, between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 31, "resolution": "True if a law enforcement agency publicly announces an arrest or charges in the 2026-08-15 Virginia State five-victim shooting, reported by at least one national outlet, by 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 14 ], "failure_condition": "No arrest or charges connected to the 2026-08-15 Virginia State shooting are announced by 2026-09-30.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3117, "n": 77, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T18:13:33Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-05" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-61", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:34.172783+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9e5a1dfa2e16b5c4a3160e07e5dd8e9658ad55e50579f46e5e8006962a770f2f", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-18 and 2026-09-17 at least one drone attack on Moscow city or Moscow oblast is reported by the Moscow mayor or the Russian Ministry of Defense and by at least one Ukrainian or Western outlet.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "True if a drone attack on Moscow city or oblast occurring 2026-08-18 through 2026-09-17 is reported by Russian official channels and by at least one of Reuters, AP, BBC, or a Ukrainian outlet.", "deadline": "2026-09-21", "citations": [ 92 ], "failure_condition": "No drone attack on Moscow city or Moscow oblast occurs within the window that is acknowledged on the Russian side and independently reported on the Ukrainian or Western side.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T18:13:33Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-54" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-62", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:34.172803+00:00", "seal_sha256": "524e955b4a0d3e90e8aa6f0327820677eda9e77893cfc3d4c1ac60eb9101bc73", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-18 and 2026-09-30 the United States conducts a military strike on targets inside the territory of Oman.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "True if at least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, or BBC report a US military strike on targets inside Omani territory occurring between 2026-08-18 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 82, 102 ], "failure_condition": "No US military strike on Omani territory occurs within the event window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T18:13:33Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-55" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-63", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:34.172815+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8de8bdc85bb79c08e29aef7b050430352a87410ac5cfea9fdc8f494570799532", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-30 United States ground forces conduct combat operations inside the internationally recognized territory of Iran.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "True if at least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, or BBC report US ground forces engaged in combat operations inside Iran between 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-30.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 83, 99 ], "failure_condition": "US military action against Iran within the window remains limited to air, missile, naval, or covert means, with no ground combat operations inside Iranian territory.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T18:13:33Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-56" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-64", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:34.172823+00:00", "seal_sha256": "faa8ac486a42d0322e3c95f41ee1b89be7b1a6f96b883d56bd05c00914326b0c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "The US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield published in FRED series DGS10 is at or above 5.00 percent for at least one business day between 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "True if any DGS10 daily value published by FRED for dates 2026-08-18 through 2026-11-30 is at or above 5.00.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 59, 65 ], "failure_condition": "Every DGS10 daily reading in the window is below 5.00 percent.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 16, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T18:13:33Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-57" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-65", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:34.172831+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a6c46c837f34af36371a477567689b55d6f6772092ae0b99ba3dcd5eaf3f0bdb", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "A CVE identifier for the Microsoft Defender vulnerability publicly tracked as ShieldBreak is added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-18 and 2026-10-16.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 23, "resolution": "True if the CISA KEV catalog gains an entry for a Microsoft Defender vulnerability, identified in vendor or CISA documentation as ShieldBreak, with dateAdded between 2026-08-18 and 2026-10-16.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 22 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry attributable to the ShieldBreak Defender vulnerability carries a dateAdded value within the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2308, "n": 13, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T18:13:33Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-58" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-66", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:34.172839+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fa7d149051105add812c58867666520993276104fccb1c22c158ae68c735c792", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-30 the WHO Director-General declares the Democratic Republic of the Congo Ebola outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 33, "resolution": "True if WHO publishes a Director-General statement declaring the DRC Ebola outbreak a PHEIC, dated between 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-30.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 116 ], "failure_condition": "No WHO PHEIC declaration covering the DRC Ebola outbreak is issued within the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T18:13:33Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-59" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-67", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:34.172846+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d05818d9e337167e8563b37c573fae2adb5e628f992f8a399ba0c958a37b898d", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "No candidate wins a majority of valid votes in the first round of the Brazilian presidential election held on 2026-10-04, sending the contest to a second round per official TSE results.", "domain": "political", "probability": 29, "resolution": "True if official TSE first-round results for the 2026-10-04 Brazilian presidential election show no candidate above 50 percent of valid votes, requiring a second round.", "deadline": "2026-10-09", "citations": [ 85 ], "failure_condition": "A candidate wins more than 50 percent of valid first-round votes, deciding the presidency without a runoff.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2857, "n": 21, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T18:13:33Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-60" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-68", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:34.172852+00:00", "seal_sha256": "dae33c865dbcb4b32c954d7da7ce137d00ba95df24714acd9363a9b92bd17d9c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "CISA adds the exploited VMware vCenter flaw CVE-2026-59310 to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-08-18 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 70, "resolution": "The CISA KEV JSON feed contains an entry with cveID CVE-2026-59310 whose dateAdded value falls between 2026-08-18 and 2026-10-31 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 15, 23 ], "failure_condition": "CVE-2026-59310 is absent from the KEV catalog, or present with a dateAdded value outside that window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-69", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:34.968340+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c5851a57e107781c6e1687252eb9d8a06ea9e8a4aa5afea6e45b81eca65ea03d", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [15, 23] carry the claim's operative terms (exploited, flaw, vcenter, vmware); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "US forces conduct a military strike on Omani territory or Omani territorial waters between 2026-08-18 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 6, "resolution": "The US Defense Department or CENTCOM acknowledges a strike on Omani territory or territorial waters occurring in that window, and both Reuters and Agence France-Presse report it.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 82, 102, 119 ], "failure_condition": "No US strike on Omani territory or Omani territorial waters occurs inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-70", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:34.968360+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ab91186acd6e61fe29c07b702696e2f6ccb8c953afa29e1b2346d63919d83b81", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited priors ground the Omani mediation context; no strike appears in the record. KEYED under the attribution doctrine (2026-08-04).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "USGS catalogs an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 250 km of the epicenter of event us6000tkt2 between 2026-08-18 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 55, "resolution": "A USGS ComCat query for magnitude 6.0 or greater events within 250 km of the us6000tkt2 epicenter, origin times between 2026-08-18 and 2026-09-30 UTC, returns at least one event.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 39, 50 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS catalog holds no magnitude 6.0 or greater event within 250 km of that epicenter inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-71", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:34.968370+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0e6dabe66f779771cba1312bb4f7197ea38e745aa911ce091209518a24ede7c2", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited record supplies the us6000tkt2 mainshock (M7.7 Ende) and aid coverage only; no recorded M6+ within 250 km appears in any cited prior. Aftershock-occurrence class — operator-claimed KEYLESS per the standing 2026-08-15 family ruling.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "CISA adds the exploited VMware vCenter flaw CVE-2026-59310 to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-08-18 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 23, "resolution": "The CISA KEV JSON feed contains an entry with cveID CVE-2026-59310 whose dateAdded value falls between 2026-08-18 and 2026-10-31 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 15, 23 ], "failure_condition": "CVE-2026-59310 is absent from the KEV catalog, or present with a dateAdded value outside that window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2308, "n": 13, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T18:13:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-69" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-72", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:35.858451+00:00", "seal_sha256": "604add8cffca74e5c3f663aa26caefaab0369bb73a6b5f763bd4cf4a2c1b0879", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "US forces conduct a military strike on Omani territory or Omani territorial waters between 2026-08-18 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "The US Defense Department or CENTCOM acknowledges a strike on Omani territory or territorial waters occurring in that window, and both Reuters and Agence France-Presse report it.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 82, 102, 119 ], "failure_condition": "No US strike on Omani territory or Omani territorial waters occurs inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T18:13:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-70" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-73", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:35.858471+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6c820b2ab36bc002625f422588d9b3e884e6005771b09a3b2cf6bb6ae02f5de6", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "USGS catalogs an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 250 km of the epicenter of event us6000tkt2 between 2026-08-18 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 33, "resolution": "A USGS ComCat query for magnitude 6.0 or greater events within 250 km of the us6000tkt2 epicenter, origin times between 2026-08-18 and 2026-09-30 UTC, returns at least one event.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 39, 50 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS catalog holds no magnitude 6.0 or greater event within 250 km of that epicenter inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-17T18:13:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260817-71" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-17_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260817-74", "date_issued": "2026-08-17", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-17_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-17T18:13:35.858482+00:00", "seal_sha256": "33cf868ae20a376cbca4039c3d27bc50f2d617cd5d392e923fc7a405b99e119b", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-17" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a drone strike will be reported in Kyiv with casualties claimed by Ukrainian sources.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 25, "resolution": "At least one report from a Ukrainian source confirms casualties from a drone strike in Kyiv between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 4 ], "failure_condition": "No report from a Ukrainian source confirms casualties from a drone strike in Kyiv between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260818-01", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "strikes yes, but the casualty-confirmation clause went unmet in window", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T15:18:31.473943+00:00", "seal_sha256": "26840413769f2f878d602caeeec06f8e81fe106e02dd60cfebd99d0683d2ccd1", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "operator", "verdicts": { "claude": "AMBIGUOUS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Ukrainian officials via ISW reported drone strikes on Kyiv Oblast targets on 08-21, but no Ukrainian-source confirmation of casualties from a drone strike in Kyiv during 08-21 to 08-24 was found; itemized casualty retrospectives skip Kyiv for those days." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will exceed 5.33% at the close of any trading day.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 35, "resolution": "The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, as reported by FRED, exceeds 5.33% on at least one trading day between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-27", "citations": [ 62 ], "failure_condition": "The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, as reported by FRED, never exceeds 5.33% between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260818-02", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] The 10-year yield finished 08-28 at 4.73 percent per Advisor Perspectives, and Bloomberg 08-31 reports it topped 4.75 percent that day for the first time since January 2025, capping all window closes far below 5.33.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T15:18:31.473963+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b31c10b6926122ef7924c85e1260a7f909df0db18ca72b05fcbb8660f9fa7dbd", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The 10-year yield finished 08-28 at 4.73 percent per Advisor Perspectives, and Bloomberg 08-31 reports it topped 4.75 percent that day for the first time since January 2025, capping all window closes far below 5.33." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a wildfire in Belgium will be classified as 'red' by GDACS.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 20, "resolution": "GDACS issues a red alert for a wildfire in Belgium between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 32, 37 ], "failure_condition": "GDACS does not issue a red alert for any wildfire in Belgium between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260818-03", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "the letter keys GDACS red alert, which never fired for the High Fens fire", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T15:18:31.473972+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2814eea5bd5a0b2de138df0085a3d9757ef9b3ea184e7c885a865bc7b3c6833c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [32, 37] carry the claim's operative terms (belgium, wildfire); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "operator", "verdicts": { "claude": "AMBIGUOUS", "qwen": "MISS" }, "evidence": "The record High Fens fire was active through the window, but GDACS red alerts for wildfires are fatality and exposure driven and this fire had no reported deaths; no red-level GDACS alert for Belgium appears in coverage." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a cyberattack exploiting CVE-2025-62593 will be reported by at least two independent sources.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "At least two independent, non-identical sources report a cyberattack exploiting CVE-2025-62593 between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 8, 25 ], "failure_condition": "Fewer than two independent sources report a cyberattack exploiting CVE-2025-62593 between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260818-04", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] CVE-2025-62593 (Ray code injection) is real and actively exploited: CISA added it to KEV on 08-17 with an 08-20 federal deadline and The Hacker News reported the exploitation about 08-17 to 08-18, both before the 08-21 to 08-24 window.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T15:18:31.473980+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c2026a0687ec275c9df64cfb41d8b7f2a9d2af81168bea8344e8dad915428a0e", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "CVE-2025-62593 (Ray code injection) is real and actively exploited: CISA added it to KEV on 08-17 with an 08-20 federal deadline and The Hacker News reported the exploitation about 08-17 to 08-18, both before the 08-21 to 08-24 window." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a U.S. federal court will issue a ruling on the Disney ABC First Amendment lawsuit against the FCC.", "domain": "political", "probability": 15, "resolution": "A U.S. federal court issues a ruling on the Disney ABC First Amendment lawsuit against the FCC between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 57, 75 ], "failure_condition": "No U.S. federal court issues a ruling on the Disney ABC First Amendment lawsuit against the FCC between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260818-05", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] ABC/Disney filed the First Amendment suit against the FCC on 08-18 in DDC (CNBC, NPR, Variety); the only court action was an 08-20 denial of an urgent hearing that set a 09-24 filing deadline and an early-October hearing, per Yahoo Finance summary.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T15:18:31.473987+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1f2b5280b92e139fc4c063ca895392b3b204b94869e1e3893035b8c7cf49ba8a", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "ABC/Disney filed the First Amendment suit against the FCC on 08-18 in DDC (CNBC, NPR, Variety); the only court action was an 08-20 denial of an urgent hearing that set a 09-24 filing deadline and an early-October hearing, per Yahoo Finance summary." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake will be recorded in Indonesia by the USGS.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The USGS reports a magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake in Indonesia between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 48, 49, 54 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS does not report a magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake in Indonesia between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260818-06", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] The Indonesia M6-class events of the period (M7.7 mainshock, M6.2 and M6.1 aftershocks, and a separate M6.9 off Sumatra) all occurred 08-14 to 08-15; no M6.0-plus Indonesia event during 08-21 to 08-24 appears in coverage of the intensely watched region.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T15:18:31.473994+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a5618bce1b46c1f09bd513599d8ea996e1c38c901e54468656354704853d8b57", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [48, 49, 54] carry the claim's operative terms (earthquake, indonesia, magnitude); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The Indonesia M6-class events of the period (M7.7 mainshock, M6.2 and M6.1 aftershocks, and a separate M6.9 off Sumatra) all occurred 08-14 to 08-15; no M6.0-plus Indonesia event during 08-21 to 08-24 appears in coverage of the intensely watched region." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a political scandal involving a U.S. state governor will be reported by at least three major wire services.", "domain": "political", "probability": 10, "resolution": "At least three major wire services (e.g., AP, Reuters, Bloomberg) report a political scandal involving a U.S. state governor between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 107, 113, 115 ], "failure_condition": "Fewer than three major wire services report a political scandal involving a U.S. state governor between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260818-07", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "no governor scandal by three wires in window", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T15:18:31.474000+00:00", "seal_sha256": "38ef6bdcc433caeb42979c9b3ab8cf35d2b94fe15144babe01f507aa2df9632c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "operator", "verdicts": { "claude": "AMBIGUOUS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "No US state governor scandal reported by three wire services during 08-21 to 08-24 surfaced in searches." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a major cyberattack on a financial institution will be confirmed by the CISA KEV catalog and reported by two major financial news outlets.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 18, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog lists a vulnerability exploited in a major cyberattack on a financial institution, and two major financial news outlets report the incident between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 21, 25, 67 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog does not list a vulnerability exploited in a major cyberattack on a financial institution, or fewer than two major financial news outlets report the incident between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260818-08", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] No KEV addition carries a dateAdded of 08-21 to 08-24 in documented batches, and no financial-institution attack paired to a KEV-listed vulnerability was reported by financial outlets in the window.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T15:18:31.474007+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d2100fa52317998f3cc8cf1459d1c69aacd9bb80675cff78b1555864f1123395", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "No KEV addition carries a dateAdded of 08-21 to 08-24 in documented batches, and no financial-institution attack paired to a KEV-listed vulnerability was reported by financial outlets in the window." } }, { "statement": "Russian forces strike Kyiv with missiles or drones at least once between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-18, confirmed by Ukrainian officials and carried by a major international wire service.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 90, "resolution": "Reuters, AP, or AFP and at least one Ukrainian government source report a Russian missile or drone strike on Kyiv occurring between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-18.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 98, 103 ], "failure_condition": "No Russian missile or drone strike on Kyiv occurs between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-18.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-09", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:15:56.759036+00:00", "seal_sha256": "30bafdcf42341dd45b02d56e57bab2d7dd7cc6773f055ac4db4dd7265badbe2b", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [98, 103] carry the claim's operative terms (missile, russian, strike, ukrainian); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "United States forces conduct military strikes on targets inside Iranian territory between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The US Department of Defense or the President announces US strikes on targets inside Iran conducted between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-30, and Iranian state media acknowledge strikes occurred.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 112, 123, 125 ], "failure_condition": "The window closes with no US military strike conducted against targets inside Iranian territory.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-10", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:15:56.759057+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3e2a93bc5e4c5c7ba0698dc10ad9cd93e3ca3e604e6fad150df74c35341daabb" }, { "statement": "A vulnerability in a GitLab product is added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 15, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog contains at least one entry listing GitLab as vendor or product with dateAdded between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-31.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 26 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry naming GitLab carries a dateAdded value between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-31.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-11", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:15:56.759069+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1ed094bc8f53d06ca1d8c58dd117112a7164c9df7add33a2eed6da2b60da48b4" }, { "statement": "A petition challenging the 2026 Zambian presidential election result is filed with the Constitutional Court of Zambia between 2026-08-18 and 2026-09-04.", "domain": "political", "probability": 40, "resolution": "Constitutional Court of Zambia records or at least two international wire services report a petition challenging the presidential result was filed between 2026-08-18 and 2026-09-04.", "deadline": "2026-09-08", "citations": [ 111, 129 ], "failure_condition": "No petition challenging the presidential result is filed with the Constitutional Court between 2026-08-18 and 2026-09-04.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-12", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:15:56.759078+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4bb148b0b15e5a218a71be23c5b0c644b77608d58b26ef5df10b5521720203e4", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [111, 129] carry the claim's operative terms (presidential, zambia, zambian); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A jury verdict is returned or a mistrial is declared between 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-30 in the Nevada trial over the 1996 killing of Tupac Shakur.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 80, "resolution": "Nevada court records or at least two major wire services report a jury verdict returned or a mistrial declared in the Tupac Shakur murder trial between 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-30.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 11, 12, 50 ], "failure_condition": "Neither a jury verdict nor a declared mistrial occurs in the case between 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-30.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-13", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:15:56.759086+00:00", "seal_sha256": "54ec10229b97789e064b5ef447d520b0538cd989158a97b1099b14a356554a65" }, { "statement": "The USGS earthquake catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or greater with an epicenter in Indonesia occurring between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-31 UTC.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 60, "resolution": "The USGS ComCat catalog lists at least one event of magnitude 6.5 or greater located within Indonesia with origin time between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-31 UTC.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 48, 54 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS catalog contains no Indonesia event of magnitude 6.5 or greater with origin time between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-31 UTC.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-14", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:15:56.759093+00:00", "seal_sha256": "be8383affb170a72acf0625cc43b08cad037761c0796bd8402e6e59b34e8175c" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-01, the Ukrainian Air Force command reports on at least seven separate overnight periods that Russia launched 100 or more one-way attack drones.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 87, "resolution": "Daily Ukrainian Air Force air-defence tallies covering nights from 2026-08-19 to 2026-09-01 show 100 or more drones launched on seven or more of those nights, with at least one wire service reporting the same figures.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 96, 98, 103 ], "failure_condition": "Fewer than seven of those fourteen nights carry a launch count of 100 or more drones.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-15", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:15:57.553394+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7b326abaf0dbe4992730c7f6aa12ba6afe7a1706c29f33155dfdc9fddfade249", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [96, 98, 103] carry the claim's operative terms (attack, russia, ukrainian); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "The United States conducts at least one military strike on Omani territory between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 7, "resolution": "At least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, and BBC report a US strike on Omani soil dated between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-31, or US Central Command confirms one.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 112, 125 ], "failure_condition": "No US munition impacts Omani territory within the stated window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-16", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:15:57.553413+00:00", "seal_sha256": "686cdd693794d14dbe125df622c884dcf695fcde6fa152024751a9f2c9e78c76" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-30, either Russia or the United Kingdom expels at least one accredited diplomat of the other state.", "domain": "political", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The Russian foreign ministry or the UK Foreign Office announces the expulsion of at least one diplomat of the other state, dated 2026-08-19 to 2026-09-30, corroborated by two wire services.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 82, 120, 121 ], "failure_condition": "Neither government orders a diplomatic expulsion of the other inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-17", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:15:57.553424+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6c99dabd4e2f04755ce6a2818a62b99c96e245723e2719755b44b492bc902c0b" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry whose vendorProject field is GitLab, with a dateAdded between 2026-08-19 and 2027-01-15.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 15, "resolution": "A fetch of the CISA KEV JSON feed returns at least one entry with vendorProject GitLab and a dateAdded between 2026-08-19 and 2027-01-15 inclusive.", "deadline": "2027-01-20", "citations": [ 26 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry naming GitLab as vendorProject carries a dateAdded inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-18", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:15:57.553431+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2f0ccc54bbe397df442d01266d772da3e3a3a312a4432481909cdaa2b12271da" }, { "statement": "In the Disney and ABC First Amendment suit against the FCC, the FCC files a motion to dismiss or an answer between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "political", "probability": 58, "resolution": "The federal docket for the ABC or Disney suit against the FCC records a motion to dismiss or an answer filed by the FCC between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-15.", "deadline": "2026-10-20", "citations": [ 57, 79 ], "failure_condition": "No FCC motion to dismiss or answer appears on that docket by 2026-10-15.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-19", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:15:57.553438+00:00", "seal_sha256": "25b92d5e17790b0ff8a675eb8012a3c90367a5537d1db099caf57f682dcffcb0" }, { "statement": "The USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one magnitude 6.5 or greater event with an epicenter in Indonesia between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 58, "resolution": "A USGS FDSN event query for 2026-08-19 to 2026-09-30 returns one or more events of magnitude 6.5 or greater within the Indonesian region bounding box.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 48, 54 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS catalog shows no magnitude 6.5 or greater Indonesian event inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-20", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:15:57.553446+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0a6da233542339eedfd13b08e494f071c62eca73044f698777a3f8ea1a41a92f" }, { "statement": "The United States will carry out a military strike on a target inside Oman between 2026-08-19 and 2026-08-26.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 6, "resolution": "TRUE if the US government, the Omani government, or two independent wire services confirm a US military strike inside Oman during the window; adjudicated 2026-08-28.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 112, 125 ], "failure_condition": "No US military strike inside Oman is confirmed by any government or independent wire service during the window, regardless of continued rhetorical threats.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-21", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Oman served as the principal mediator during the window, with CNBC 08-25 and 08-26 reporting an Iran-Oman Hormuz revenue deal and talks; CENTCOM described the 08-30 Larak Island strikes as the first US strikes since late July, and no report anywhere describes a US strike inside Oman.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:15:58.292790+00:00", "seal_sha256": "bc52e6facda51dd6b0f0a863c668f7f5e449f6feeff7cffcf2aa4053f0fd3b0f", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [112, 125] carry the claim's operative terms (oman, omani); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Oman served as the principal mediator during the window, with CNBC 08-25 and 08-26 reporting an Iran-Oman Hormuz revenue deal and talks; CENTCOM described the 08-30 Larak Island strikes as the first US strikes since late July, and no report anywhere describes a US strike inside Oman." } }, { "statement": "CVE-2026-19478, the critical GitLab GraphQL flaw patched 2026-08-17, will be added to the CISA KEV catalog between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-16.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 10, "resolution": "TRUE if CISA's Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog lists CVE-2026-19478 with a date-added value inside the window; adjudicated 2026-09-18.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 26 ], "failure_condition": "CISA's KEV catalog does not list CVE-2026-19478 at any point through the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-22", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:15:58.292810+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f66b8eb442cf168972e21e19941e491b8d264aeac995981398fc5336ca0b00d2", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [26] carry the claim's operative terms (critical, flaw, gitlab, graphql); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A jury will return a verdict, guilty or not guilty, in the Duane Keffe D Davis murder trial in Clark County, Nevada, between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-25.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 45, "resolution": "TRUE if Clark County District Court or at least two independent wire services report a jury verdict in the Davis trial inside the window; a hung jury counts as FALSE; adjudicated 2026-09-28.", "deadline": "2026-09-28", "citations": [ 9, 11, 14 ], "failure_condition": "No jury verdict is delivered in the Davis trial during the window, whether from delay, extended deliberation, or a mistrial.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-23", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:15:58.292820+00:00", "seal_sha256": "bdc2964dd27a7342898d17ffedfc1279cdf7b0a2162888cceaccd153a9ab4183" }, { "statement": "USGS will record a magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake within 150 km of the M7.7 Ende, Indonesia mainshock (2026-08-17, 22:29 UTC), between 2026-08-19 and 2026-08-26.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 55, "resolution": "TRUE if the USGS Earthquake Catalog lists any magnitude 6.0 or greater event within 150 km of the Ende mainshock epicenter, origin time inside the window; adjudicated 2026-08-28.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 54 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS Earthquake Catalog lists no magnitude 6.0 or greater event within 150 km of the Ende epicenter during the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-24", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] The Ende sequence mainshock struck 08-14 at 21:58 UTC (USGS), with its largest aftershocks (M6.2, M6.1) on 08-15; coverage of the roughly 995-aftershock sequence shows no M6.0-plus event during 08-19 to 08-26 within 150 km.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:15:58.292828+00:00", "seal_sha256": "883766cf51c7b84ba88cf422b225cf8c4784475bae327fc07b6196d662c5bbda", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "FLIPPED from machine KEYED (basis was the token(s) 'ende'). Cited record supplies the mainshock only; no M6+/M5.5+ aftershock appears in any cited prior. Rate claim atop a recorded trigger - operator-claimed KEYLESS (2026-08-15 aftershock family ruling).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The Ende sequence mainshock struck 08-14 at 21:58 UTC (USGS), with its largest aftershocks (M6.2, M6.1) on 08-15; coverage of the roughly 995-aftershock sequence shows no M6.0-plus event during 08-19 to 08-26 within 150 km." } }, { "statement": "Russian forces strike Kyiv with missiles or drones at least once between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-18, confirmed by Ukrainian officials and carried by a major international wire service.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "Reuters, AP, or AFP and at least one Ukrainian government source report a Russian missile or drone strike on Kyiv occurring between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-18.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 98, 103 ], "failure_condition": "No Russian missile or drone strike on Kyiv occurs between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-18.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-18T18:15:58Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260818-09" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-25", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:34:11.696018+00:00", "seal_sha256": "416c0b744b48314ed1ef861b39df7d858fbdbbf05c134b7acffec9d85e7fdcd3", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "United States forces conduct military strikes on targets inside Iranian territory between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "The US Department of Defense or the President announces US strikes on targets inside Iran conducted between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-30, and Iranian state media acknowledge strikes occurred.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 112, 123, 125 ], "failure_condition": "The window closes with no US military strike conducted against targets inside Iranian territory.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-18T18:15:58Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260818-10" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-26", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:34:11.696037+00:00", "seal_sha256": "bae81c5158c88335765c8c41033f099a4f106b1324f9e9f996a8c4fd632b391e" }, { "statement": "A vulnerability in a GitLab product is added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 23, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog contains at least one entry listing GitLab as vendor or product with dateAdded between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-31.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 26 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry naming GitLab carries a dateAdded value between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-31.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2308, "n": 13, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-18T18:15:58Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260818-11" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-27", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:34:11.696047+00:00", "seal_sha256": "06d0977474a248ddb167c5606c4df1bbd386d09a3791244e1b081017206d5e8c" }, { "statement": "A petition challenging the 2026 Zambian presidential election result is filed with the Constitutional Court of Zambia between 2026-08-18 and 2026-09-04.", "domain": "political", "probability": 29, "resolution": "Constitutional Court of Zambia records or at least two international wire services report a petition challenging the presidential result was filed between 2026-08-18 and 2026-09-04.", "deadline": "2026-09-08", "citations": [ 111, 129 ], "failure_condition": "No petition challenging the presidential result is filed with the Constitutional Court between 2026-08-18 and 2026-09-04.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2857, "n": 21, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-18T18:15:58Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260818-12" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-28", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:34:11.696055+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8c6e60a83f482925579ed0308b6bfb769567da42a54800a5c452f12f6c698ff0", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A jury verdict is returned or a mistrial is declared between 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-30 in the Nevada trial over the 1996 killing of Tupac Shakur.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 31, "resolution": "Nevada court records or at least two major wire services report a jury verdict returned or a mistrial declared in the Tupac Shakur murder trial between 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-30.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 11, 12, 50 ], "failure_condition": "Neither a jury verdict nor a declared mistrial occurs in the case between 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-30.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3117, "n": 77, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-18T18:15:58Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260818-13" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-29", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:34:11.696062+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8c7011d87bdc68c3b13fd4301e22e005b1b8eb0ab07514e5747fe5ff1c170420" }, { "statement": "The USGS earthquake catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or greater with an epicenter in Indonesia occurring between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-31 UTC.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 33, "resolution": "The USGS ComCat catalog lists at least one event of magnitude 6.5 or greater located within Indonesia with origin time between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-31 UTC.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 48, 54 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS catalog contains no Indonesia event of magnitude 6.5 or greater with origin time between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-31 UTC.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-18T18:15:58Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260818-14" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-30", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:34:11.696069+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7d25cae84a7d76486ca9ba4aae0ddf9b72846ab644e9804017d82ad444d81389" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-01, the Ukrainian Air Force command reports on at least seven separate overnight periods that Russia launched 100 or more one-way attack drones.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "Daily Ukrainian Air Force air-defence tallies covering nights from 2026-08-19 to 2026-09-01 show 100 or more drones launched on seven or more of those nights, with at least one wire service reporting the same figures.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 96, 98, 103 ], "failure_condition": "Fewer than seven of those fourteen nights carry a launch count of 100 or more drones.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-18T18:15:58Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260818-15" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-31", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:34:13.031712+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ff6fa0ec58059ea6b7076da07f1d0113d367c798759cec73aa85c5ece54789f8", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "The United States conducts at least one military strike on Omani territory between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "At least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, and BBC report a US strike on Omani soil dated between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-31, or US Central Command confirms one.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 112, 125 ], "failure_condition": "No US munition impacts Omani territory within the stated window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-18T18:15:58Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260818-16" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-32", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:34:13.031730+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e30423be10a1f22b65e32a704677efc8d7d71604a382498eeae506e6d7f2735a" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-30, either Russia or the United Kingdom expels at least one accredited diplomat of the other state.", "domain": "political", "probability": 29, "resolution": "The Russian foreign ministry or the UK Foreign Office announces the expulsion of at least one diplomat of the other state, dated 2026-08-19 to 2026-09-30, corroborated by two wire services.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 82, 120, 121 ], "failure_condition": "Neither government orders a diplomatic expulsion of the other inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2857, "n": 21, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-18T18:15:58Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260818-17" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-33", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:34:13.031742+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ff665f6763cffe83ce81ae5e9701ee665d1d0ff36652b5e195f8e5f70b5b5d0a" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry whose vendorProject field is GitLab, with a dateAdded between 2026-08-19 and 2027-01-15.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 23, "resolution": "A fetch of the CISA KEV JSON feed returns at least one entry with vendorProject GitLab and a dateAdded between 2026-08-19 and 2027-01-15 inclusive.", "deadline": "2027-01-20", "citations": [ 26 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry naming GitLab as vendorProject carries a dateAdded inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2308, "n": 13, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-18T18:15:58Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260818-18" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-34", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:34:13.031750+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a1b8663ddf1919cd1474c5546a483822e3d96f0eed227d1deda1e674c5d2c281" }, { "statement": "In the Disney and ABC First Amendment suit against the FCC, the FCC files a motion to dismiss or an answer between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "political", "probability": 29, "resolution": "The federal docket for the ABC or Disney suit against the FCC records a motion to dismiss or an answer filed by the FCC between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-15.", "deadline": "2026-10-20", "citations": [ 57, 79 ], "failure_condition": "No FCC motion to dismiss or answer appears on that docket by 2026-10-15.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2857, "n": 21, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-18T18:15:58Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260818-19" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-35", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:34:13.031756+00:00", "seal_sha256": "567dbbbc1f50727a86d9b2e01154cecb6962477829053a1af63d0e4650dae01f" }, { "statement": "The USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one magnitude 6.5 or greater event with an epicenter in Indonesia between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 33, "resolution": "A USGS FDSN event query for 2026-08-19 to 2026-09-30 returns one or more events of magnitude 6.5 or greater within the Indonesian region bounding box.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 48, 54 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS catalog shows no magnitude 6.5 or greater Indonesian event inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-18T18:15:58Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260818-20" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-36", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:34:13.031763+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0e138d8340d262270b221608103c318ce6967ea55986193e6ab0450274ba72e9" }, { "statement": "The United States will carry out a military strike on a target inside Oman between 2026-08-19 and 2026-08-26.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "TRUE if the US government, the Omani government, or two independent wire services confirm a US military strike inside Oman during the window; adjudicated 2026-08-28.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 112, 125 ], "failure_condition": "No US military strike inside Oman is confirmed by any government or independent wire service during the window, regardless of continued rhetorical threats.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-18T18:15:58Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260818-21" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-37", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Duplicate of KKR-20260818-21: no US strike inside Oman occurred; Oman was the active mediator throughout the window.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:34:13.760106+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9ef6d0dd80aff37d75507ab867db1efb1593320f9e9e702415c30c43126d67f6", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Duplicate of KKR-20260818-21: no US strike inside Oman occurred; Oman was the active mediator throughout the window." } }, { "statement": "CVE-2026-19478, the critical GitLab GraphQL flaw patched 2026-08-17, will be added to the CISA KEV catalog between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-16.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 23, "resolution": "TRUE if CISA's Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog lists CVE-2026-19478 with a date-added value inside the window; adjudicated 2026-09-18.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 26 ], "failure_condition": "CISA's KEV catalog does not list CVE-2026-19478 at any point through the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2308, "n": 13, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-18T18:15:58Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260818-22" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-38", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:34:13.760125+00:00", "seal_sha256": "88dbe5a104fbbad57324d6f3185cd10141099295536437541d1e0b09279f845d", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A jury will return a verdict, guilty or not guilty, in the Duane Keffe D Davis murder trial in Clark County, Nevada, between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-25.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 31, "resolution": "TRUE if Clark County District Court or at least two independent wire services report a jury verdict in the Davis trial inside the window; a hung jury counts as FALSE; adjudicated 2026-09-28.", "deadline": "2026-09-28", "citations": [ 9, 11, 14 ], "failure_condition": "No jury verdict is delivered in the Davis trial during the window, whether from delay, extended deliberation, or a mistrial.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3117, "n": 77, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-18T18:15:58Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260818-23" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-39", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:34:13.760135+00:00", "seal_sha256": "cdbc9fc631a548bca509be3443fc46eb5e4ec30ac08acbd3a5d36c73331d3787" }, { "statement": "USGS will record a magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake within 150 km of the M7.7 Ende, Indonesia mainshock (2026-08-17, 22:29 UTC), between 2026-08-19 and 2026-08-26.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if the USGS Earthquake Catalog lists any magnitude 6.0 or greater event within 150 km of the Ende mainshock epicenter, origin time inside the window; adjudicated 2026-08-28.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 54 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS Earthquake Catalog lists no magnitude 6.0 or greater event within 150 km of the Ende epicenter during the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-18T18:15:58Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260818-24" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-18_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260818-40", "date_issued": "2026-08-18", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-18_1516.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Duplicate of KKR-20260818-24: qualifying M6-plus aftershocks occurred 08-15, before the 08-19 window start.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-18T18:34:13.760142+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e56b8f9ddeef7fed8604dbf847651f002348de4dd29c5f96308540bd5081ddc3", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Duplicate of KKR-20260818-24: qualifying M6-plus aftershocks occurred 08-15, before the 08-19 window start." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, at least one report from a hostile side in the Israel-Gaza-Levant Theatre will confirm a drone strike on Gaza City with casualties claimed in the corroborating reports.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "At least one report from a hostile side in the Israel-Gaza-Levant Theatre confirms a drone strike on Gaza City between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, with casualties claimed in the corroborating reports.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 3 ], "failure_condition": "No report from a hostile side in the Israel-Gaza-Levant Theatre confirms a drone strike on Gaza City between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24 with casualties claimed.", "id": "KKR-20260819-01", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T15:20:52.804298+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6037f078cc7c3e19dca08db6edb5279cb2fdc225abe1f417bfcd9609932e5b5e", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, the USGS Significant Quakes feed will record a magnitude 5.0 or higher earthquake in Indonesia with a depth of less than 10 km.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The USGS Significant Quakes feed records a magnitude 5.0 or higher earthquake in Indonesia with a depth of less than 10 km between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 46 ], "failure_condition": "No magnitude 5.0 or higher earthquake in Indonesia with a depth of less than 10 km is recorded in the USGS Significant Quakes feed between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260819-02", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "void", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "catalog pins aftershock depth at the 10.0 km placeholder", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T15:20:52.804322+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9cb45abffce3a6676a246673d74e6061d79e390b34b5c20db48329ae97520f22", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "operator", "verdicts": { "claude": "AMBIGUOUS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "The Ende aftershock sequence continued through the window with sequence depths commonly cataloged at a fixed 10.0 km, making a sub-10 km M5 plausible but unverified; no Significant-feed Indonesia M5 during 08-21 to 08-24 surfaced in press." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, at least one report from a hostile side in the Russia-Ukraine Theatre will confirm a missile strike on Kyiv with casualties claimed in the corroborating reports.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 35, "resolution": "At least one report from a hostile side in the Russia-Ukraine Theatre confirms a missile strike on Kyiv between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, with casualties claimed in the corroborating reports.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 1 ], "failure_condition": "No report from a hostile side in the Russia-Ukraine Theatre confirms a missile strike on Kyiv between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24 with casualties claimed.", "id": "KKR-20260819-03", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] No missile strike on Kyiv with casualties during 08-21 to 08-24 appears in daily trackers or retrospectives; the ISW 08-21 assessment describes drone waves, and the mass-casualty Kyiv missile events fell 08-20 and 08-28 onward.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T15:20:52.804334+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f88defda4146fcd029fc0327b81f4d733c05c37ba3686ebfc0f57b93efc876f3", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "No missile strike on Kyiv with casualties during 08-21 to 08-24 appears in daily trackers or retrospectives; the ISW 08-21 assessment describes drone waves, and the mass-casualty Kyiv missile events fell 08-20 and 08-28 onward." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, at least one report from a hostile side in the Iran Theatre will confirm a ballistic missile strike on Tehran with casualties claimed in the corroborating reports.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 20, "resolution": "At least one report from a hostile side in the Iran Theatre confirms a ballistic missile strike on Tehran between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, with casualties claimed in the corroborating reports.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 12 ], "failure_condition": "No report from a hostile side in the Iran Theatre confirms a ballistic missile strike on Tehran between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24 with casualties claimed.", "id": "KKR-20260819-04", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] AJ 08-30 and CNBC describe the 08-30 Larak strikes and Jordan retaliation as the first flare-up between the US and Iran since late July, establishing a lull covering 08-21 to 08-24; no strike on Tehran in the window appears anywhere.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T15:20:52.804343+00:00", "seal_sha256": "680ae1b19ae26a64dfedf3717e310448e689adebda888a5ecceed21303f837a3", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "AJ 08-30 and CNBC describe the 08-30 Larak strikes and Jordan retaliation as the first flare-up between the US and Iran since late July, establishing a lull covering 08-21 to 08-24; no strike on Tehran in the window appears anywhere." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, at least one report from a hostile side in the Russia-Ukraine Theatre will confirm a drone strike on Dnipro with casualties claimed in the corroborating reports.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "At least one report from a hostile side in the Russia-Ukraine Theatre confirms a drone strike on Dnipro between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, with casualties claimed in the corroborating reports.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 13 ], "failure_condition": "No report from a hostile side in the Russia-Ukraine Theatre confirms a drone strike on Dnipro between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24 with casualties claimed.", "id": "KKR-20260819-05", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "Kryvyi Rih mall strike, 16 killed, 08-21, Dnipropetrovsk", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T15:20:52.804352+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5c34ad1a4fb9c82962fc0518a28df503ca8a43524ec4af87be39c38111540989", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "operator", "verdicts": { "claude": "AMBIGUOUS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Ukrainian officials reported drone strikes on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on 08-21 (ISW) including the Kryvyi Rih mall strike with 16 killed, but no confirmed drone strike with casualties in Dnipro city during 08-21 to 08-24 was found; the Dnipro-outskirts shopping-center strike hit 08-25." } }, { "statement": "CISA adds at least one new Microsoft-product vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a date-added value between 2026-08-20 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 85, "resolution": "The CISA KEV JSON feed contains at least one entry with vendorProject Microsoft and dateAdded between 2026-08-20 and 2026-09-30 inclusive; zero such entries grades MISS.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 18, 19 ], "failure_condition": "No Microsoft entry with dateAdded in the 2026-08-20 to 2026-09-30 range exists in the KEV catalog at the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-06", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:50:13.975805+00:00", "seal_sha256": "bcdc5faf5ef97e0ba0352d38d11a8ac75cc5891fde1405f039231694ed6d0621" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-20 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 45, "resolution": "The official ICE Brent front-month settlement price is at or above 100.00 USD on any trading day from 2026-08-20 through 2026-10-30; otherwise MISS.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 92, 98 ], "failure_condition": "Every ICE Brent front-month settlement in the event window is below 100.00 USD.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-07", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:50:13.975827+00:00", "seal_sha256": "faa258674311943898bd20997e35611b4e563841abf3f03cf7148625a38d2992" }, { "statement": "The US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield closes at or above 5.00 percent on at least one day between 2026-08-20 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 40, "resolution": "FRED series DGS10 records a value at or above 5.00 for at least one date between 2026-08-20 and 2026-12-31; otherwise MISS.", "deadline": "2027-01-05", "citations": [ 52, 68, 74 ], "failure_condition": "Every DGS10 daily value in the event window is below 5.00.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-08", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:50:13.975838+00:00", "seal_sha256": "cccd90396b31ee1e77277bc8ad7fe9bc68ef37c7907fdedfb5d17fc905663a6f" }, { "statement": "At least one missile or drone strike on United Arab Emirates territory attributed to Iran or Iran-aligned forces occurs between 2026-08-20 and 2026-09-20.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 40, "resolution": "At least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, or BBC report a strike on UAE territory within the window attributed to Iran or Iran-aligned forces; no machine-readable register exists for this class.", "deadline": "2026-09-23", "citations": [ 87, 92, 98 ], "failure_condition": "No strike on UAE territory attributable to Iran or Iran-aligned forces occurs within the event window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-09", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:50:13.975849+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d2ef2ec6ef824db225df4bb7286d7461f629f92292166ccfcd3c3a15aee94877", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [87, 92, 98] carry the claim's operative terms (iran, iran-aligned, missile, strike); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Voting in Palestinian national legislative or presidential elections takes place on at least one day between 2026-11-01 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 30, "resolution": "At least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, or Al Jazeera report ballots cast in Palestinian national elections within the window; postponement or cancellation grades MISS.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 119 ], "failure_condition": "No voting in Palestinian national elections occurs during November 2026.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-10", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:50:13.975857+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ef489dee396b5dd64a7a46c1d981b581646060d262fd7880eb8a1172ef33bc8d" }, { "statement": "A Federal Register document published between 2026-08-20 and 2026-12-31 imposes a 50 percent tariff on a broad class of Canadian imports.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "Federalregister.gov contains a presidential proclamation or agency notice published within the window that imposes a 50 percent tariff rate on Canadian imports broadly; otherwise MISS.", "deadline": "2027-01-05", "citations": [ 124 ], "failure_condition": "No Federal Register document imposing the 50 percent Canada tariff is published within the event window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-11", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:50:13.975865+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c9a339233d2cd657c42bb96d92c1e9eff2ea50c1812b9aea5f7f5ec514e8652a" }, { "statement": "At least one of the two Ukrainian nationals arrested in August 2026 over the Nord Stream sabotage enters German custody between 2026-08-20 and 2027-01-31.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 50, "resolution": "At least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, or DW report the transfer of either suspect to German custody within the window; a German federal court docket entry also suffices.", "deadline": "2027-02-03", "citations": [ 77, 113 ], "failure_condition": "Neither suspect is in German custody by the end of the event window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-12", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:50:13.975872+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fc30026328f2c8fc7d5d3770e045260c6a1e4d808c8ea2074b44c13ee8513c37" }, { "statement": "The USGS catalog records at least one magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake within 250 km of event us6000tkt2 with origin time between 2026-08-20 and 2026-10-31 UTC.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 70, "resolution": "A USGS FDSN event query centered on the us6000tkt2 epicenter with 250 km radius, minimum magnitude 6.0, and the window dates returns at least one event; zero events grades MISS.", "deadline": "2026-11-02", "citations": [ 46 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS query for M6.0 or greater within 250 km of the epicenter during the event window returns zero events.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-13", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:50:13.975878+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0a70e34608ad5ebdb81a3d343a6b9d3cb01dd3a28ed886b529bc9f3a0c941820" }, { "statement": "CISA adds at least one Microsoft vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a date-added value in the window 2026-08-26 to 2026-11-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 92, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog contains at least one entry with vendorProject Microsoft and a dateAdded value between 2026-08-26 and 2026-11-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 18, 19 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry carries vendorProject Microsoft with a dateAdded value inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-14", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:50:15.622216+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c5e7e205de10ace2393cdf36807b598254cb1458ef66cf12b5bbcf056b408606" }, { "statement": "At least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or greater occurs worldwide with origin time in the window 2026-08-26 to 2026-10-31 UTC.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 93, "resolution": "The USGS ComCat catalog lists at least one event of magnitude 7.0 or greater with origin time between 2026-08-26T00:00Z and 2026-10-31T23:59Z.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 46, 48 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS catalog holds no event of magnitude 7.0 or greater with origin time inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-15", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:50:15.622236+00:00", "seal_sha256": "03df808e2149502df7ca003d63954ab9a06f7699eb5e6aa4a1bf4aee25c16d6b" }, { "statement": "The UAE government publicly attributes a missile or drone impact on UAE territory or territorial waters to Iran, for an impact in the window 2026-08-26 to 2026-10-15.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 52, "resolution": "Reuters and Agence France-Presse both report a UAE government statement attributing a missile or drone impact on UAE territory or territorial waters to Iran within the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 87, 92, 98 ], "failure_condition": "No UAE government statement in the window attributes a missile or drone impact on its territory or waters to Iran.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-16", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:50:15.622247+00:00", "seal_sha256": "588a2249f1d71e2ce1f4ed7d3228344c5f0b8c2c47a8c3134d424e8ab54da012" }, { "statement": "Iran publicly agrees to permit unrestricted commercial transit of the Strait of Hormuz under an agreement announced in the window 2026-08-26 to 2026-11-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 18, "resolution": "Reuters and the Associated Press both report an agreement, announced within the window, under which Iran permits unrestricted commercial transit of the Strait of Hormuz.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 92, 98 ], "failure_condition": "Transit of the Strait remains conditioned on Iranian permission or restriction at the close of the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-17", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:50:15.622255+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1a8459b4d1faf910a25833d015bdd719dc3fcb75bc13d3966be45599ca204b9b" }, { "statement": "Croatia surrenders to German custody the Ukrainian diver arrested in Pula on 2026-08-19 over the Nord Stream blasts, in the window 2026-08-26 to 2026-12-11.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 33, "resolution": "The German Federal Public Prosecutor confirms the suspect has been surrendered by Croatia and brought before a judge of the Federal Court of Justice within the window.", "deadline": "2026-12-15", "citations": [ 77, 113 ], "failure_condition": "The suspect is not in German custody at the close of the window, whether through Croatian refusal, pending appeal, or release.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-18", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:50:15.622262+00:00", "seal_sha256": "82b3a42bbf522a2f20e1fb22f6007edb30c3bc7edeaeb057547daf15cba84348" }, { "statement": "NABU or SAPO issues a formal notice of suspicion to a serving or former official of the Ukrainian Office of the President in the window 2026-08-26 to 2026-11-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 52, "resolution": "NABU or SAPO publicly announces a notice of suspicion naming a serving or former Office of the President official, reported by Reuters and Ukrainska Pravda.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 103 ], "failure_condition": "No notice of suspicion against a serving or former Office of the President official is announced inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-19", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:50:15.622270+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e265eb70bf65cea47f95a70cdcd9f18755eb5328c3ab5bf2556535c1fd47fafb" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-09, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, or Oman formally announces new trade restrictions or a trade suspension against Iran, distinct from the UAE action already reported.", "domain": "political", "probability": 18, "resolution": "TRUE if, between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-09, the government of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, or Oman issues an official trade-restriction announcement against Iran, per two of Reuters, AP, or Bloomberg.", "deadline": "2026-09-11", "citations": [ 92, 98 ], "failure_condition": "No GCC member state besides the UAE imposes new trade restrictions on Iran during the window; existing trade relationships continue unchanged.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-20", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:50:16.453381+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3b85bd4d061f7cdf7d105a26333d761dcda60f253dfbe10920bf561d66c7bd7b", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [92, 98] carry the claim's operative terms (iran, trade, trade-restriction); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-02, the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog lists 10 or more entries with a dateAdded value in that range, following the 4 entries added 2026-08-18.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 45, "resolution": "TRUE if the public CISA KEV JSON feed shows 10 or more entries with dateAdded between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-02 inclusive, queried on or after 2026-09-04.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 18, 19 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog shows fewer than 10 entries with dateAdded in the window when the feed is queried.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-21", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:50:16.453400+00:00", "seal_sha256": "864d4c65a9995942883a6c39d9c16eef68637988593997629c97c17c1f13dbc7", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "FLIPPED from machine KEYED (basis was the token 'exploited'). Cited priors are two single exploited-flaw items; the 10-entry window count is stated in no cited record. Throughput claim - operator-claimed KEYLESS.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-18, the 10-Year Treasury constant maturity yield (FRED series DGS10) closes at or above 4.85 percent on at least one trading day, up from 4.65 percent on 2026-08-19.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 38, "resolution": "TRUE if FRED series DGS10 records a daily close of 4.85 or higher on any trading day between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-18, per data available by 2026-09-21.", "deadline": "2026-09-21", "citations": [ 52, 68, 74 ], "failure_condition": "DGS10 does not close at or above 4.85 percent on any trading day within the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-22", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:50:16.453412+00:00", "seal_sha256": "83f171a0f1c2efeeb635d672b2aead4dd6af7ff1236b415bfb36a34036659606", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Reference level stated at seal (4.65 on 2026-08-19), so the keyed/keyless gap is measurable; the market-threshold-with-reference class has no standing operator ruling. KEYED pending that class ruling - a wrong keyed costs nothing (4.03 default).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27", "keyed_keyless_superseded": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_corrected": "2026-08-27", "keyed_keyless_correction": "CORRECTED from keyed for consistency with KKR-20260727-17. Reference level held at seal (DGS10 4.65 on 2026-08-19); a 4.85 close inside the window is stated in no cited record ([52],[68],[74] ground the subject, Treasury yields and debt, not the level). Market-threshold claim beyond the record with a measurable gap - keyless. Ruled at class level without consulting the yield path since seal; skill versus the market not claimed (no market-implied control yet).", "keyed_keyless_authority": "Ruled by the assistant at the operator's explicit delegation (KK31, 2026-08-26 desk-local), on the record's own precedent: KKR-20260727-17 was ruled KEYLESS because its resolution held its anchor (Brent 90.14 on the packet date) and the threshold lay beyond the record. Recorded as the assistant's ruling, not the operator's." }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-19 and 2026-11-15, German federal prosecutors file a formal indictment against the Ukrainian national arrested in Croatia over the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline bombings.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 15, "resolution": "TRUE if the Generalbundesanwalt files a formal indictment against the Croatia-arrested individual, reported by two of Reuters, AP, or DPA, before 2026-11-17.", "deadline": "2026-11-17", "citations": [ 77, 113 ], "failure_condition": "German federal prosecutors do not file a formal indictment against the Croatia-arrested individual before the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-23", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:50:16.453419+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d1f13b1fd60d66a2b4f4ee8d02bc5cce9d5a2d7c402a64964d663c3d28ed20be" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-16, USGS catalogs at least one aftershock of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 150 km of the M7.7 Ende, Indonesia epicenter recorded 2026-08-19.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 50, "resolution": "TRUE if the USGS earthquake catalog lists an event of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 150 km of the Ende epicenter with origin time between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-16.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 46 ], "failure_condition": "No earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater is catalogued by USGS within 150 km of the Ende epicenter during the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-24", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:50:16.453426+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4f346f8d14db843a9390303bc4fd672947f884037d94812b492c2b0287fdb93d", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "FLIPPED from machine KEYED (basis was the token(s) 'ende'). Cited record supplies the mainshock only; no M6+/M5.5+ aftershock appears in any cited prior. Rate claim atop a recorded trigger - operator-claimed KEYLESS (2026-08-15 aftershock family ruling).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-17, Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada or Central Election Commission formally schedules a date for a presidential election, following the sacked defence minister's public call for one.", "domain": "political", "probability": 7, "resolution": "TRUE if the Verkhovna Rada or Ukraine's Central Election Commission issues an official act setting a presidential election date, reported by two of Reuters, AP, or Ukrainska Pravda, by 2026-10-19.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 103, 126 ], "failure_condition": "Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada and Central Election Commission do not schedule a presidential election date during the window; the wartime suspension of elections remains in effect.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-25", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:50:16.453433+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d34d5edd3f933af7570547b807a3ee47387df6c2c671f21291100c86218bae71" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-17, the WHO Director-General declares the Democratic Republic of Congo Ebola outbreak, which reached 5,000 cases this window, a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 20, "resolution": "TRUE if WHO's Director-General issues a formal PHEIC declaration covering the DRC Ebola outbreak between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-17, per WHO statement and two wire services, by 2026-10-19.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 39 ], "failure_condition": "WHO's Director-General does not declare a PHEIC covering the DRC Ebola outbreak during the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-26", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:50:16.453441+00:00", "seal_sha256": "89b0cb7c0c9c076e089328232a9a4ce7789056d4e0b7a841ae55a98146588c83" }, { "statement": "CISA adds at least one new Microsoft-product vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a date-added value between 2026-08-20 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 23, "resolution": "The CISA KEV JSON feed contains at least one entry with vendorProject Microsoft and dateAdded between 2026-08-20 and 2026-09-30 inclusive; zero such entries grades MISS.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 18, 19 ], "failure_condition": "No Microsoft entry with dateAdded in the 2026-08-20 to 2026-09-30 range exists in the KEV catalog at the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2308, "n": 13, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-19T22:50:16Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260819-06" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-27", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:51:01.173235+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2ca2b8541bebe5dc0fdc3899b12ae54e47d086762f268acce8bace063a10094c" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-20 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The official ICE Brent front-month settlement price is at or above 100.00 USD on any trading day from 2026-08-20 through 2026-10-30; otherwise MISS.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 92, 98 ], "failure_condition": "Every ICE Brent front-month settlement in the event window is below 100.00 USD.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 16, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-19T22:50:16Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260819-07" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-28", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:51:01.173256+00:00", "seal_sha256": "984e17351d8752ac2b73585db3cee1c2b0e7900c3880c340b05619192e48df06" }, { "statement": "The US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield closes at or above 5.00 percent on at least one day between 2026-08-20 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "FRED series DGS10 records a value at or above 5.00 for at least one date between 2026-08-20 and 2026-12-31; otherwise MISS.", "deadline": "2027-01-05", "citations": [ 52, 68, 74 ], "failure_condition": "Every DGS10 daily value in the event window is below 5.00.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 16, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-19T22:50:16Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260819-08" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-29", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:51:01.173267+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f889f86146f77e402ae4c12d5a064efc3aaf3181eeaa8d64aa4c3eb41add5367" }, { "statement": "At least one missile or drone strike on United Arab Emirates territory attributed to Iran or Iran-aligned forces occurs between 2026-08-20 and 2026-09-20.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "At least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, or BBC report a strike on UAE territory within the window attributed to Iran or Iran-aligned forces; no machine-readable register exists for this class.", "deadline": "2026-09-23", "citations": [ 87, 92, 98 ], "failure_condition": "No strike on UAE territory attributable to Iran or Iran-aligned forces occurs within the event window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-19T22:50:16Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260819-09" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-30", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:51:01.173276+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f8b921553d60db7984cb81653caf2aad4a5c1537baff88a517fd8494779e4a22", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Voting in Palestinian national legislative or presidential elections takes place on at least one day between 2026-11-01 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 29, "resolution": "At least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, or Al Jazeera report ballots cast in Palestinian national elections within the window; postponement or cancellation grades MISS.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 119 ], "failure_condition": "No voting in Palestinian national elections occurs during November 2026.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2857, "n": 21, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-19T22:50:16Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260819-10" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-31", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:51:01.173284+00:00", "seal_sha256": "01037cf46f1f20b3072049eaec02864bef82da0e608280e6fe9bb9efcf1782ff" }, { "statement": "A Federal Register document published between 2026-08-20 and 2026-12-31 imposes a 50 percent tariff on a broad class of Canadian imports.", "domain": "political", "probability": 29, "resolution": "Federalregister.gov contains a presidential proclamation or agency notice published within the window that imposes a 50 percent tariff rate on Canadian imports broadly; otherwise MISS.", "deadline": "2027-01-05", "citations": [ 124 ], "failure_condition": "No Federal Register document imposing the 50 percent Canada tariff is published within the event window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2857, "n": 21, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-19T22:50:16Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260819-11" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-32", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:51:01.173295+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8ef9d3d774f5cf4523fe180e10f6ab72c5d53be8e3b5e1da5473b57ca3d6fb9b" }, { "statement": "At least one of the two Ukrainian nationals arrested in August 2026 over the Nord Stream sabotage enters German custody between 2026-08-20 and 2027-01-31.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 31, "resolution": "At least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, or DW report the transfer of either suspect to German custody within the window; a German federal court docket entry also suffices.", "deadline": "2027-02-03", "citations": [ 77, 113 ], "failure_condition": "Neither suspect is in German custody by the end of the event window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3117, "n": 77, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-19T22:50:16Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260819-12" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-33", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:51:01.173302+00:00", "seal_sha256": "67af958a883094355b877ac8c736ab5408a43fe7d5be86ce722fc7fa126e4c19" }, { "statement": "The USGS catalog records at least one magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake within 250 km of event us6000tkt2 with origin time between 2026-08-20 and 2026-10-31 UTC.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 33, "resolution": "A USGS FDSN event query centered on the us6000tkt2 epicenter with 250 km radius, minimum magnitude 6.0, and the window dates returns at least one event; zero events grades MISS.", "deadline": "2026-11-02", "citations": [ 46 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS query for M6.0 or greater within 250 km of the epicenter during the event window returns zero events.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-19T22:50:16Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260819-13" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-34", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:51:01.173309+00:00", "seal_sha256": "44f4cced93e6a2bd0cdafff8b521497a278c2af853c4aa7ad6af59ef44a80180" }, { "statement": "CISA adds at least one Microsoft vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a date-added value in the window 2026-08-26 to 2026-11-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 23, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog contains at least one entry with vendorProject Microsoft and a dateAdded value between 2026-08-26 and 2026-11-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 18, 19 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry carries vendorProject Microsoft with a dateAdded value inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2308, "n": 13, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-19T22:50:16Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260819-14" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-35", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:51:01.958827+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c1224ddcd44476aa6b2e3c18d2bc1e5e910d7c2b8bc01f75083a84d866696a71" }, { "statement": "At least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or greater occurs worldwide with origin time in the window 2026-08-26 to 2026-10-31 UTC.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 33, "resolution": "The USGS ComCat catalog lists at least one event of magnitude 7.0 or greater with origin time between 2026-08-26T00:00Z and 2026-10-31T23:59Z.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 46, 48 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS catalog holds no event of magnitude 7.0 or greater with origin time inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-19T22:50:16Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260819-15" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-36", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:51:01.958846+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0bdcfbf278518a311df1b1b8c0fd52921314d98bf9bc1c0d86a3985002e91df1" }, { "statement": "The UAE government publicly attributes a missile or drone impact on UAE territory or territorial waters to Iran, for an impact in the window 2026-08-26 to 2026-10-15.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "Reuters and Agence France-Presse both report a UAE government statement attributing a missile or drone impact on UAE territory or territorial waters to Iran within the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 87, 92, 98 ], "failure_condition": "No UAE government statement in the window attributes a missile or drone impact on its territory or waters to Iran.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-19T22:50:16Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260819-16" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-37", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:51:01.958856+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f7c843aa91d0e721fe5af2afadc3eda65b1b3de116fc995c1c2fa88108a16e4e" }, { "statement": "Iran publicly agrees to permit unrestricted commercial transit of the Strait of Hormuz under an agreement announced in the window 2026-08-26 to 2026-11-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "Reuters and the Associated Press both report an agreement, announced within the window, under which Iran permits unrestricted commercial transit of the Strait of Hormuz.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 92, 98 ], "failure_condition": "Transit of the Strait remains conditioned on Iranian permission or restriction at the close of the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-19T22:50:16Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260819-17" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-38", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:51:01.958863+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d9c6c0f12bcafc54ed15905d5fc0a1439423a0d71f5df5e4190a47220494d3b2" }, { "statement": "Croatia surrenders to German custody the Ukrainian diver arrested in Pula on 2026-08-19 over the Nord Stream blasts, in the window 2026-08-26 to 2026-12-11.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 31, "resolution": "The German Federal Public Prosecutor confirms the suspect has been surrendered by Croatia and brought before a judge of the Federal Court of Justice within the window.", "deadline": "2026-12-15", "citations": [ 77, 113 ], "failure_condition": "The suspect is not in German custody at the close of the window, whether through Croatian refusal, pending appeal, or release.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3117, "n": 77, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-19T22:50:16Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260819-18" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-39", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:51:01.958871+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6a5bb4f78cc05d65f55652adb038f962fe17b51c4eb11bdd483c30992b02d7c3" }, { "statement": "NABU or SAPO issues a formal notice of suspicion to a serving or former official of the Ukrainian Office of the President in the window 2026-08-26 to 2026-11-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 29, "resolution": "NABU or SAPO publicly announces a notice of suspicion naming a serving or former Office of the President official, reported by Reuters and Ukrainska Pravda.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 103 ], "failure_condition": "No notice of suspicion against a serving or former Office of the President official is announced inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2857, "n": 21, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-19T22:50:16Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260819-19" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-40", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:51:01.958879+00:00", "seal_sha256": "52ae9d746deb0efc66ac537744a81ca36d40fb929fd42401d7470d20ccf968d7" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-09, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, or Oman formally announces new trade restrictions or a trade suspension against Iran, distinct from the UAE action already reported.", "domain": "political", "probability": 29, "resolution": "TRUE if, between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-09, the government of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, or Oman issues an official trade-restriction announcement against Iran, per two of Reuters, AP, or Bloomberg.", "deadline": "2026-09-11", "citations": [ 92, 98 ], "failure_condition": "No GCC member state besides the UAE imposes new trade restrictions on Iran during the window; existing trade relationships continue unchanged.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2857, "n": 21, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-19T22:50:16Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260819-20" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-41", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:51:03.334698+00:00", "seal_sha256": "698c7dc83cdb0c07653e2d86ae51b2d2b993882b2af64e650b4029d7b6575469", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-02, the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog lists 10 or more entries with a dateAdded value in that range, following the 4 entries added 2026-08-18.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 23, "resolution": "TRUE if the public CISA KEV JSON feed shows 10 or more entries with dateAdded between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-02 inclusive, queried on or after 2026-09-04.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 18, 19 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog shows fewer than 10 entries with dateAdded in the window when the feed is queried.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2308, "n": 13, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-19T22:50:16Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260819-21" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-42", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:51:03.334721+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2d01b69d86c1af4d08c62f7c323d33a8cd01ee30efb4f60292a148bf5733a790", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-18, the 10-Year Treasury constant maturity yield (FRED series DGS10) closes at or above 4.85 percent on at least one trading day, up from 4.65 percent on 2026-08-19.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if FRED series DGS10 records a daily close of 4.85 or higher on any trading day between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-18, per data available by 2026-09-21.", "deadline": "2026-09-21", "citations": [ 52, 68, 74 ], "failure_condition": "DGS10 does not close at or above 4.85 percent on any trading day within the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 16, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-19T22:50:16Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260819-22" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-43", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:51:03.334732+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a4341ab293e37ca5912eae24a67dd0803fbc9deb4f7f08f4bcf64008351f6b7c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-19 and 2026-11-15, German federal prosecutors file a formal indictment against the Ukrainian national arrested in Croatia over the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline bombings.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 31, "resolution": "TRUE if the Generalbundesanwalt files a formal indictment against the Croatia-arrested individual, reported by two of Reuters, AP, or DPA, before 2026-11-17.", "deadline": "2026-11-17", "citations": [ 77, 113 ], "failure_condition": "German federal prosecutors do not file a formal indictment against the Croatia-arrested individual before the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3117, "n": 77, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-19T22:50:16Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260819-23" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-44", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:51:03.334742+00:00", "seal_sha256": "47972b50782c6b663808d9a007220251c9730523670774aa0909c483724cdf0f" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-16, USGS catalogs at least one aftershock of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 150 km of the M7.7 Ende, Indonesia epicenter recorded 2026-08-19.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if the USGS earthquake catalog lists an event of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 150 km of the Ende epicenter with origin time between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-16.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 46 ], "failure_condition": "No earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater is catalogued by USGS within 150 km of the Ende epicenter during the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-19T22:50:16Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260819-24" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-45", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:51:03.334750+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e52a54c7de5bd8dc7e51548959b8e8d535f4e26d7a8cbd7357237f2c5bfd9d7f", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-17, Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada or Central Election Commission formally schedules a date for a presidential election, following the sacked defence minister's public call for one.", "domain": "political", "probability": 29, "resolution": "TRUE if the Verkhovna Rada or Ukraine's Central Election Commission issues an official act setting a presidential election date, reported by two of Reuters, AP, or Ukrainska Pravda, by 2026-10-19.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 103, 126 ], "failure_condition": "Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada and Central Election Commission do not schedule a presidential election date during the window; the wartime suspension of elections remains in effect.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2857, "n": 21, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-19T22:50:16Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260819-25" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-46", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:51:03.334757+00:00", "seal_sha256": "763159f25b5d41e40a1ddea4a068794d48a3b41d16b9b747fa101eb7d05e0e86" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-17, the WHO Director-General declares the Democratic Republic of Congo Ebola outbreak, which reached 5,000 cases this window, a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if WHO's Director-General issues a formal PHEIC declaration covering the DRC Ebola outbreak between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-17, per WHO statement and two wire services, by 2026-10-19.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 39 ], "failure_condition": "WHO's Director-General does not declare a PHEIC covering the DRC Ebola outbreak during the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-19T22:50:16Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260819-26" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-19_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260819-47", "date_issued": "2026-08-19", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-19_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-19T22:51:03.334765+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f7a37ba52071e671966153ed678e63ffef4e85620289b3540fa48871a77e59bd" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a magnitude 5.5 or higher earthquake will be recorded by the USGS in the region of Dunhuang, China.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The USGS Significant Quakes feed records a magnitude 5.5 or higher earthquake with a location within 100 km of Dunhuang, China, between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-09-02", "citations": [ 37 ], "failure_condition": "No magnitude 5.5 or higher earthquake is recorded by the USGS in the region of Dunhuang, China, between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260820-01", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T15:39:52.345916+00:00", "seal_sha256": "243cc5947ddfd9b6d7af2ae81f67de6ea349a7f9d85b549ec7cf4bca7f739849", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a coordinated cyberattack exploiting the Zimbra SNMP flaw will be confirmed by two independent sources.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 35, "resolution": "Two independent sources confirm a cyberattack exploiting the Zimbra SNMP flaw (CVE-2026-XXXXX) occurred between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-09-03", "citations": [ 25 ], "failure_condition": "No two independent sources confirm a cyberattack exploiting the Zimbra SNMP flaw between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260820-02", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T15:39:52.345937+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4632b7a9636bf369db10b73aef0308823b7376452ad6d56a2ee5b75410062348", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, the US Treasury will announce a bond buyback operation exceeding $4 billion.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 60, "resolution": "The US Treasury announces a bond buyback operation with a total value exceeding $4 billion between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 63 ], "failure_condition": "The US Treasury does not announce a bond buyback operation exceeding $4 billion between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260820-03", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "only scheduled TreasuryDirect buybacks; no qualifying trigger", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T15:39:52.345947+00:00", "seal_sha256": "59800b92acd01163404b753ae1582e9cdfa4788f611b9327343ce1070adbfa9e", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [63] carry the claim's operative terms (buyback, operation, treasury); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "operator", "verdicts": { "claude": "AMBIGUOUS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Treasury runs scheduled buyback operations announced via TreasuryDirect, with the quarterly schedule set at the late-July refunding, before the window; whether any single operation exceeding 4 billion dollars was announced specifically within 08-21 to 08-24 was not verified." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a new military offensive will be reported in the Zaporizhzhia region with confirmed casualties.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 40, "resolution": "Two or more independent sources report a new military offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region with confirmed casualties between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-09-02", "citations": [ 28 ], "failure_condition": "No independent sources report a new military offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region with confirmed casualties between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260820-04", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T15:39:52.345956+00:00", "seal_sha256": "acd8fc0935d551e1825c870b3ed015e09f0bbcb58c7e4bf3a745a7165110eead", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a tropical cyclone with Category 3 or higher intensity will be reported by GDACS.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 30, "resolution": "GDACS Alerts records a tropical cyclone with Category 3 or higher intensity between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-09-03", "citations": [ 43 ], "failure_condition": "No tropical cyclone with Category 3 or higher intensity is recorded by GDACS Alerts between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260820-05", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T15:39:52.345966+00:00", "seal_sha256": "bf6a124288fa0414291ee1dcf1e8647f85ed1cfdb1a3ebacbd84a800ef5e1ce4", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a new ceasefire agreement will be reported in the Israel-Gaza-Levant Theatre with confirmation from both Israeli and Palestinian sources.", "domain": "political", "probability": 20, "resolution": "Two independent sources, one from Israel and one from Palestine, confirm the establishment of a ceasefire agreement in the Israel-Gaza-Levant Theatre between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-09-02", "citations": [ 10 ], "failure_condition": "No independent Israeli and Palestinian sources confirm a ceasefire agreement in the Israel-Gaza-Levant Theatre between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260820-06", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T15:39:52.345973+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3569e18ba0de3babd5e97bfce8d301c7c2d680dd1e047601e0a21fb8fdfc998c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a major cyberattack on a critical infrastructure system in the United States will be confirmed by CISA.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 35, "resolution": "CISA issues a public advisory confirming a major cyberattack on a critical infrastructure system in the United States between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-09-03", "citations": [ 36 ], "failure_condition": "CISA does not issue a public advisory confirming a major cyberattack on a critical infrastructure system in the United States between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260820-07", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T15:39:52.345981+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d7be766ad40f2c4b8f2ede3e4f6a118e1ba5bbc5a69c1fe5c672997444c8c36a", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a new political scandal involving a senior U.S. official will be reported by two major wire services.", "domain": "political", "probability": 45, "resolution": "Two major wire services report a new political scandal involving a senior U.S. official between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 112 ], "failure_condition": "No two major wire services report a new political scandal involving a senior U.S. official between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.", "id": "KKR-20260820-08", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "no senior-official scandal by two wires inside the window", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T15:39:52.345988+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3373c902c4a0c34cc7eaf968e9935656b897ffb3f2ac8a27973391cee2a3abf9", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "operator", "verdicts": { "claude": "AMBIGUOUS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "No new senior-US-official scandal reported by two major wires inside 08-21 to 08-24 surfaced; the periods big stories broke 08-26 onward." } }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds a CVE affecting Zimbra Collaboration with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-18.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 65, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog JSON contains an entry whose vendorProject or product field names Zimbra and whose dateAdded falls between 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-18 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 17, 25 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV catalog contains no Zimbra entry with a dateAdded value inside the 2026-08-21 to 2026-09-18 window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260820-09", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T23:35:59.046032+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6bff0375cfb4bafb16a85c4312750f3dc458f2197ec6d37dabb148f90b5eedb1", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [17, 25] carry the claim's operative terms (exploited, zimbra); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "The USGS ComCat catalog records an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater with epicenter within 150 km of USGS event us6000tkt2 near Ende, Indonesia, with origin time between 2026-08-21 and 2026-10-16.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 40, "resolution": "A USGS ComCat query centered on event us6000tkt2 with a 150 km radius returns at least one magnitude 6.0 or greater event with origin time between 2026-08-21 and 2026-10-16 UTC.", "deadline": "2026-10-20", "citations": [ 57, 58 ], "failure_condition": "ComCat records no magnitude 6.0 or greater event inside that radius and origin-time window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260820-10", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T23:35:59.046064+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b8bae83a6314a575293f222d569280f5524317dab4b2b918039e24ee14dc070c" }, { "statement": "The NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO diagnostic discussion scheduled for 2026-12-10 carries an active El Nino Advisory status.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 88, "resolution": "The CPC ENSO diagnostic discussion published on or about 2026-12-10 states an El Nino Advisory is in effect; an ENSO-neutral or La Nina status grades false.", "deadline": "2026-12-14", "citations": [ 45 ], "failure_condition": "The December 2026 discussion states ENSO-neutral or La Nina conditions or does not declare an El Nino Advisory.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260820-11", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T23:35:59.046075+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e9f670ba677c66e114ccb4076abf4918aeb4cce11864aaf4f2316df3804f0119" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent crude front-month futures record an official daily settlement at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-21 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 50, "resolution": "Published ICE Brent front-month official settlement prices show at least one value at or above 100.00 USD between 2026-08-21 and 2026-10-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 65, 119 ], "failure_condition": "Every Brent front-month official settlement in the window prints below 100.00 USD.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260820-12", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T23:35:59.046083+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0ff14b74c6533bed7543223240dccd6e843ca1cdc5e222bee5b3f6d6ff3a09d9" }, { "statement": "Congress.gov records Senate passage of a bill whose short title includes CLARITY Act between 2026-08-21 and 2026-12-18.", "domain": "political", "probability": 30, "resolution": "Congress.gov shows a passed-Senate action, by roll call or voice vote, on a bill whose short title includes CLARITY Act, with the action dated between 2026-08-21 and 2026-12-18.", "deadline": "2026-12-22", "citations": [ 125 ], "failure_condition": "No bill with CLARITY Act in its short title records Senate passage inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260820-13", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T23:35:59.046090+00:00", "seal_sha256": "241fcc968654cb4cdbeab75a7d2078fc8b4f9f312c55d2c7a188506349ff268a" }, { "statement": "A Russian missile or drone strike on the city of Kyiv occurring between 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-20 kills five or more people.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 70, "resolution": "At least two of Reuters, AP, AFP report a single Russian strike on Kyiv city between 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-20 with an officially stated death toll of five or more.", "deadline": "2026-09-23", "citations": [ 95, 110 ], "failure_condition": "No single strike on Kyiv in the window reaches an officially stated death toll of five under the corroboration standard.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260820-14", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T23:35:59.046098+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7110fe2549c283bad7034ea21cc2b0acc9bb50e5d1d52f7413947fdb1fbfb6ff", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited priors carry Russian strikes on Kyiv; the toll threshold is not stated. Event-toll row - KEYED under attribution (standing family ruling).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-20 and 2026-08-29, Russia will conduct another missile or drone strike on Kyiv, distinct from the strike already reported on 2026-08-20, confirmed by at least two of Reuters, AP, BBC, or Guardian.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "TRUE if at least two of Reuters, AP, BBC, or Guardian report a new Russian missile or drone strike hitting Kyiv city limits between 2026-08-20 and 2026-08-29, distinct from the strike reported on 2026-08-20.", "deadline": "2026-08-31", "citations": [ 95, 110 ], "failure_condition": "No new cross-source-confirmed Russian strike on Kyiv beyond the pre-existing 2026-08-20 strike is on record by the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260820-15", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Distinct from the 08-20 strike, Russian drones struck Kyiv city on 08-29 to 08-30, with a two-year-old wounded in the city dying per Mayor Klitschko (CNN 08-29) and AFP documenting a 08-29 drone strike in Kyiv; the 08-28 Myla depot strike killing 37-plus (AFP via France 24) hit Kyiv Oblast the same wave.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T23:36:00.600499+00:00", "seal_sha256": "35c7c61086703d9bc9b59306f518da9b91a4435ef678e75b075a8b8783de3d9d", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited priors ground Russian strikes on Kyiv; a further strike inside the window is stated in no cited record. KEYED under the attribution doctrine (2026-08-04): attribution governs over strict deduction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Distinct from the 08-20 strike, Russian drones struck Kyiv city on 08-29 to 08-30, with a two-year-old wounded in the city dying per Mayor Klitschko (CNN 08-29) and AFP documenting a 08-29 drone strike in Kyiv; the 08-28 Myla depot strike killing 37-plus (AFP via France 24) hit Kyiv Oblast the same wave." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-20 and 2026-08-28, GDACS will upgrade its overall alert level for Central Pacific tropical cyclone TWO-C-26, GDACS event 1001306, from Green to Orange or Red.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 22, "resolution": "TRUE if the GDACS event page for eventid 1001306, eventtype TC, shows an Orange or Red overall alert level at any point between 2026-08-20 and 2026-08-28.", "deadline": "2026-09-01", "citations": [ 43 ], "failure_condition": "The GDACS page for eventid 1001306 shows Green as the highest overall alert level reached through the window by the deadline check.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260820-16", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "status": "miss", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] GDACS tracked TWO-C-26 with a final listed intensity of 83 km/h on 08-25 as the system, later Tropical Storm Moke, passed south of Hawaii per CPHC advisories; GDACS tropical-cyclone alerts above Green require significant population exposure to hurricane-force winds, which this sub-hurricane offshore track did not produce.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T23:36:00.600522+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1b0fbbf760bbfc1145ff21b2a2fd36e0f2a8c5d1db62249f3dc6c069f428515b", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [43] carry the claim's operative terms (alert, cyclone, green, tropical, two-c); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "MISS", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "GDACS tracked TWO-C-26 with a final listed intensity of 83 km/h on 08-25 as the system, later Tropical Storm Moke, passed south of Hawaii per CPHC advisories; GDACS tropical-cyclone alerts above Green require significant population exposure to hurricane-force winds, which this sub-hurricane offshore track did not produce." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-20 and 2026-08-30, a commercial vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz will be attacked, mined, or seized, confirmed by two or more of UKMTO, US Fifth Fleet, Reuters, or AP.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 18, "resolution": "TRUE if two or more of UKMTO, US Fifth Fleet/CENTCOM, Reuters, or AP report an attack, mining, or seizure of a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-08-20 and 2026-08-30.", "deadline": "2026-09-02", "citations": [ 92, 119 ], "failure_condition": "No two-source-confirmed attack, mining, or seizure of a Hormuz commercial vessel is reported within the window by the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260820-17", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T23:36:00.600536+00:00", "seal_sha256": "32d41c1cd69c45176124433ac2962124f4a3e36607ca9bbc311a2f2520831457", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited priors ground the Hormuz standoff (carrier arrival, oil prices on Iran rhetoric); an attack, mining or seizure of a vessel is stated in no cited record. KEYED under the attribution doctrine (2026-08-04): attribution governs over strict deduction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-20 and 2026-08-31, CISA will add CVE-2026-73570, the actively exploited Zimbra Collaboration Suite SNMP command-injection flaw, to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 40, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog carries a dateAdded value for CVE-2026-73570 between 2026-08-20 and 2026-08-31.", "deadline": "2026-09-03", "citations": [ 17, 25 ], "failure_condition": "CVE-2026-73570 does not appear in the CISA KEV catalog with a dateAdded value inside the window by the deadline check.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260820-18", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T23:36:00.600547+00:00", "seal_sha256": "80a8f1d5f425dca35c5c37d24f28f698240980c3e1b4c27f340ef73baeb175e3", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [17, 25] carry the claim's operative terms (actively, exploited, flaw, snmp, zimbra); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-20 and 2026-09-10, the US Treasury OFAC Specially Designated Nationals list will add one or more new Iran-program designations under the economic isolation campaign Trump announced on 2026-08-19.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 58, "resolution": "TRUE if OFAC SDN List data shows one or more new Iran-program designations with a listing date between 2026-08-20 and 2026-09-10.", "deadline": "2026-09-14", "citations": [ 91, 99 ], "failure_condition": "The OFAC SDN List shows no new Iran-program designations listed between 2026-08-20 and 2026-09-10 as of the deadline check.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260820-19", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T23:36:00.600556+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f31b14f98d6d4c518f0ef2db2f2f502adfd9e4ea05265f3d3d1be8422e07ce61", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [91, 99] carry the claim's operative terms (announced, campaign, iran-program, isolation, trump); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "On 2026-09-15, NYMEX WTI crude oil front-month futures will settle at or above 92.00 USD per barrel, up from the 86.42 USD close reported on 2026-08-20.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 28, "resolution": "TRUE if the NYMEX WTI front-month futures settlement price on 2026-09-15 is at or above 92.00 USD per barrel per CME Group settlement data.", "deadline": "2026-09-16", "citations": [ 119 ], "failure_condition": "The NYMEX WTI front-month settlement price on 2026-09-15 is below 92.00 USD per barrel.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260820-20", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T23:36:00.600565+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3943b39192b1543529c5c712245b1eeb96b0c9a1d6647c86ca7a0bc1272ccdda", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Reference level stated at seal (86.42 on 2026-08-20), so the keyed/keyless gap is measurable; the market-threshold-with-reference class has no standing operator ruling. KEYED pending that class ruling - a wrong keyed costs nothing (4.03 default).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27", "keyed_keyless_superseded": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_corrected": "2026-08-27", "keyed_keyless_correction": "CORRECTED from keyed for consistency with KKR-20260727-17. Reference level held at seal (86.42 on 2026-08-20); a 92.00 settle on 2026-09-15 is a 6.5 percent move stated in no cited record ([119] grounds the subject, oil on Iran rhetoric, not the level). Market-threshold claim beyond the record with a measurable gap - keyless. Ruled at class level without consulting the price path since seal; skill versus the market not claimed (no market-implied control yet).", "keyed_keyless_authority": "Ruled by the assistant at the operator's explicit delegation (KK31, 2026-08-26 desk-local), on the record's own precedent: KKR-20260727-17 was ruled KEYLESS because its resolution held its anchor (Brent 90.14 on the packet date) and the threshold lay beyond the record. Recorded as the assistant's ruling, not the operator's." }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-20 and 2026-09-20, Zelenskyy or the Ukrainian government will officially announce a specific date for a wartime presidential election, confirmed by two or more major wire services.", "domain": "political", "probability": 8, "resolution": "TRUE if the Ukrainian presidency or Central Election Commission announces a specific wartime presidential election date between 2026-08-20 and 2026-09-20, confirmed by two or more of Reuters, AP, or AFP.", "deadline": "2026-09-23", "citations": [ 124 ], "failure_condition": "No official announcement of a specific wartime presidential election date is confirmed by two or more wire services before the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260820-21", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T23:36:00.600574+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3a256a9ec6ae0d0a28682b896ee2934543bce27457f84bdda3d96e840d4acaa3", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [124] carry the claim's operative terms (election, wartime, zelenskyy); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-20 and 2026-09-24, Jewel Howard-Taylor, former Vice President of Liberia charged 2026-08-19 with drug trafficking and money laundering, will make a first court appearance in Liberia, reported by Reuters, AP, or BBC.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 50, "resolution": "TRUE if Reuters, AP, or BBC report a first court appearance, arraignment, or bail hearing for Jewel Howard-Taylor in a Liberian court between 2026-08-20 and 2026-09-24.", "deadline": "2026-09-28", "citations": [ 10 ], "failure_condition": "No Reuters, AP, or BBC report of a Liberian court appearance for Howard-Taylor exists within the window as of the deadline check.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260820-22", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T23:36:00.600583+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5ee92a3be174fd6f5f131073f83b56ed9038817ac2614c92d01284f744317fa8" }, { "statement": "CISA adds at least one Zimbra Collaboration CVE to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog, with a date-added value between 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-25.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 60, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog JSON contains an entry whose vendorProject or product field names Zimbra and whose dateAdded falls between 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-25 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 17, 25 ], "failure_condition": "At the deadline no KEV entry naming Zimbra carries a dateAdded inside the stated window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260820-23", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T23:36:03.723276+00:00", "seal_sha256": "cfaa45ce1e2f5fd76cc3f14665644abb504039ada579a1cba8c0d24f5ab347eb" }, { "statement": "CISA adds at least one Citrix NetScaler ADC or NetScaler Gateway CVE to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog, with a date-added value between 2026-08-21 and 2026-11-20.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 45, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog JSON contains an entry with vendorProject Citrix and a product field naming NetScaler, whose dateAdded falls between 2026-08-21 and 2026-11-20 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-24", "citations": [ 16, 18 ], "failure_condition": "No Citrix NetScaler entry in the KEV catalog carries a dateAdded inside the stated window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260820-24", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T23:36:03.723298+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ebfab082cabac3e40faaf08980fd1665cc5b2e918986364927815db528924bf6" }, { "statement": "A single Russian strike on Kyiv city occurring between 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-20 kills at least 10 people according to Ukrainian official figures.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 55, "resolution": "At least two of Reuters, AP, BBC and Guardian report one strike event in Kyiv city inside the window carrying an official Ukrainian death toll of 10 or more.", "deadline": "2026-09-24", "citations": [ 95, 110 ], "failure_condition": "The highest official Ukrainian toll attributed to any single Kyiv strike inside the window is nine or fewer.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260820-25", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T23:36:03.723311+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7d57e0b23ce5f4ff49323632d624d8b1b78f50407715d0907d3ea20e0523aee9", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited priors carry Russian strikes on Kyiv; the toll threshold is not stated. Event-toll row - KEYED under attribution (standing family ruling).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "United States forces conduct an officially acknowledged strike on targets inside Iranian territory between 2026-08-21 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 22, "resolution": "The Department of Defense or the White House publicly confirms US munitions struck targets inside Iran, the strike dated inside the window, carried by both Reuters and AP.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 62, 92, 99 ], "failure_condition": "No US government confirmation places American munitions on Iranian soil inside the stated window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260820-26", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T23:36:03.723320+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d91de219ed85e07d954d7f4975fcdf793123006982ef525eb25a37eb74a18ed3" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent front-month crude futures settle at or above 100.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-21 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 40, "resolution": "ICE published front-month Brent settlement data shows a settlement price of 100.00 or higher on at least one session dated inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 65, 119 ], "failure_condition": "Every Brent front-month settlement inside the window prints below 100.00 dollars.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260820-27", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T23:36:03.723329+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3259269ef1662c855436e899782b504a966df3235f14ffc228aa655a0e9ef4b3" }, { "statement": "The 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield reaches 5.00 percent or higher on at least one business day between 2026-08-21 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 38, "resolution": "FRED series DGS10 carries a value of 5.00 or greater on at least one observation date inside the window.", "deadline": "2027-01-06", "citations": [ 64, 80, 98 ], "failure_condition": "The maximum DGS10 observation inside the window is 4.99 or lower.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260820-28", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T23:36:03.723337+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d681b5c403718cad0d8e2e9c49b3fcd28551b50f8e545cab344a50d82d7683d1" }, { "statement": "USGS catalogs an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 300 km of the 2026-08-20 Ende, Indonesia M7.7 epicenter, with origin time between 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-20.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 75, "resolution": "A USGS ComCat query for magnitude 6.0 or greater, radius 300 km from the Ende mainshock epicenter, across the stated window, returns one or more events.", "deadline": "2026-09-23", "citations": [ 58, 59 ], "failure_condition": "The ComCat query returns zero qualifying events for the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260820-29", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T23:36:03.723347+00:00", "seal_sha256": "eb249935051875f00051ef424dcf535d16928e604469c0b1a394993fa359abda", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "FLIPPED from machine KEYED (basis was the token(s) 'ende'). Cited record supplies the mainshock only; no M6+/M5.5+ aftershock appears in any cited prior. Rate claim atop a recorded trigger - operator-claimed KEYLESS (2026-08-15 aftershock family ruling).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "The Verkhovna Rada or Ukraine's Central Election Commission adopts an act naming a polling date for a nationwide presidential election, between 2026-08-21 and 2026-12-15.", "domain": "political", "probability": 12, "resolution": "At least two of Reuters, AP and BBC report adoption of an act or resolution naming a specific polling date for a Ukrainian presidential election inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-12-18", "citations": [ 124 ], "failure_condition": "No Ukrainian state body adopts an act naming a presidential polling date inside the stated window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260820-30", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T23:36:03.723355+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2f4ce8f703bba7402e47306b2bae52278989fb8af3bb6874ff0ad35a3c40b456" }, { "statement": "A Chinese court sentences a named former Evergrande Group executive other than Hui Ka Yan to ten years imprisonment or more, between 2026-08-21 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 30, "resolution": "At least two of Reuters, AP, BBC and South China Morning Post report a Chinese court imposing a term of ten years or more on a named former Evergrande executive.", "deadline": "2027-01-05", "citations": [ 9, 11 ], "failure_condition": "No former Evergrande executive besides Hui Ka Yan receives a term of ten years or more inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260820-31", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T23:36:03.723363+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c2d1eb9741398651ec9c20e9f9e0d506c7f80ef9a1ec7af80179c6c0cf57697b" }, { "statement": "The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act becomes public law, with enactment dated between 2026-08-21 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 33, "resolution": "The Congress.gov actions list for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act shows a Became Public Law entry dated inside the window.", "deadline": "2027-01-05", "citations": [ 125 ], "failure_condition": "The bill's Congress.gov record carries no Became Public Law action dated inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-20_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260820-32", "date_issued": "2026-08-20", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-20_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-20T23:36:03.723371+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9dd2a5bcb1dd8959dec7db0edc1315076695a5857a62899daae1a3ceb2c299ff" }, { "statement": "A drone strike targeting a military installation in Kyiv, Ukraine, occurs between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28, resulting in at least one confirmed casualty.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "At least one confirmed casualty is reported by two independent, hostile-side news outlets (e.g., one Russian and one Ukrainian) within 48 hours of the event window's end, with the strike location confirmed as Kyiv.", "deadline": "2026-09-03", "citations": [ 2, 12, 13 ], "failure_condition": "No report from two independent, hostile-side outlets confirms a drone strike in Kyiv with at least one casualty within 48 hours of 2026-08-28.", "id": "KKR-20260821-01", "date_issued": "2026-08-21", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-21_1524.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-21_1524.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-21T15:26:56.315789+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ffb7d1f2e88c43f603c2f56f60c7d4776f805a62f27a0db9b9e87a5485cdc8f3", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog will include at least one new vulnerability with a CVSS score of 10.0 between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28 for a vulnerability with a CVSS score of 10.0.", "deadline": "2026-09-03", "citations": [ 18, 25, 26 ], "failure_condition": "No vulnerability with a CVSS score of 10.0 is added to the CISA KEV catalog between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28.", "id": "KKR-20260821-02", "date_issued": "2026-08-21", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-21_1524.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-21_1524.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-21T15:26:56.315812+00:00", "seal_sha256": "df4bdcdcd60ce2feecc7dbf3a1a78ad0ec9b14d9815ceced48493f4ec50e04a6", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake will be recorded by the USGS in Indonesia between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 20, "resolution": "The USGS Significant Quakes database records a seismic event with magnitude ≥6.0 and depth ≤100km in Indonesia between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28.", "deadline": "2026-09-03", "citations": [ 34, 43 ], "failure_condition": "No seismic event with magnitude ≥6.0 and depth ≤100km is recorded in Indonesia by the USGS between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28.", "id": "KKR-20260821-03", "date_issued": "2026-08-21", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-21_1524.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-21_1524.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-21T15:26:56.315824+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e0a89a5ce4e2fc62b4782a2fe4fb085c9f28c433693692651d40d87a6efd4766", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A major political scandal involving a U.S. federal official will be reported by at least two major outlets (e.g., CNN, The New York Times, The Guardian) between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28.", "domain": "political", "probability": 30, "resolution": "At least two major news outlets (e.g., CNN, The New York Times, The Guardian) publish a report detailing a political scandal involving a U.S. federal official between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28.", "deadline": "2026-09-03", "citations": [ 113, 116 ], "failure_condition": "No report from two major outlets confirms a political scandal involving a U.S. federal official between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28.", "id": "KKR-20260821-04", "date_issued": "2026-08-21", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-21_1524.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-21_1524.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-21T15:26:56.315835+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d0eff33ad7a3fdfce9e28c7dc8e138d07639e5b899b20be5cc25fa9df54f302c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "The 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield (FRED series DGS10, 4.65 on 2026-08-19 after a 20-month high near 4.75 that week) records a daily value of 5.00 percent or higher on at least one day between 2026-08-24 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 30, "resolution": "FRED series DGS10 shows at least one observation dated 2026-08-24 through 2026-09-30 inclusive with a value of 5.00 or greater.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 62, 68 ], "failure_condition": "Every DGS10 observation dated 2026-08-24 through 2026-09-30 is below 5.00.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-21_1524.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-01", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-21_1524.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T03:21:11.023817+00:00", "seal_sha256": "51d365267d9169f59b48a0364c7bf88c6eab31d0b2868e9120dade69382b32d1" }, { "statement": "US Central Command publicly announces US strikes on land targets inside Iran conducted on at least one day between 2026-08-24 and 2026-09-06, ending the kinetic pause that has held since the cancelled campaign of 2026-08-01 while the administration pivots to economic warfare.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 25, "resolution": "A CENTCOM press release on centcom.mil or an official CENTCOM social media post states that US forces struck land targets inside Iran on a date from 2026-08-24 through 2026-09-06 inclusive; blockade actions against vessels do not count.", "deadline": "2026-09-09", "citations": [ 57, 80, 109, 110 ], "failure_condition": "No CENTCOM press release or official post reports a US strike on land targets inside Iran dated 2026-08-24 through 2026-09-06.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-21_1524.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-02", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-21_1524.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T03:21:11.023836+00:00", "seal_sha256": "60f142a7469f4a2677b734cad2b820b9f0bc06b4def3d57a28de2739bb1c0ac6", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [80, 109, 110] carry the claim's operative terms (economic, iran, warfare); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Jury selection in United States v. Jeffries et al. (E.D.N.Y., Central Islip, Judge Nusrat Choudhury), set for late October after the 2026-08-20 competency ruling, begins on a date between 2026-10-01 and 2026-11-13.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 45, "resolution": "The E.D.N.Y. docket for United States v. Jeffries et al. records a minute entry for jury selection or commencement of trial dated 2026-10-01 through 2026-11-13 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-17", "citations": [ 77 ], "failure_condition": "No docket entry shows jury selection or trial commencing from 2026-10-01 through 2026-11-13, whether by continuance, plea, dismissal, or severance.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-21_1524.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-03", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-21_1524.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T03:21:11.023847+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8452b523fbba3d48466357e83a13671594a8e39c29e9da030a623179d4bb8de2" }, { "statement": "On 2026-08-27, the first full Nasdaq trading session after Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) releases its August 26, 2026 after-market earnings, NVDA closes up or down 6 percent or more from its 2026-08-26 closing price.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 40, "resolution": "Resolves YES if the official Nasdaq closing price for NVDA on 2026-08-27 differs from its 2026-08-26 closing price by 6 percent or more in either direction, per Nasdaq or a standard market-data provider; resolves NO if the move is smaller than 6 percent.", "deadline": "2026-08-28", "citations": [ 60 ], "failure_condition": "The NVDA closing price on 2026-08-27 moves less than 6 percent in either direction from its 2026-08-26 close.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-21_1524.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-04", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-21_1524.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Nvidia reported after the close 08-26 and NVDA jumped 8.7 percent on 08-27 per the CNBC market wrap (TheStreet corroborating intraday), exceeding the 6 percent trigger against the 08-26 close.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T03:21:12.615009+00:00", "seal_sha256": "aa56a02357b9d2893d8ca74b087a0da0eb4418f7f2544c1087e9f68a238d2e20", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Market-threshold claim with no numeric reference level stated at seal; the keyed/keyless gap is unmeasurable and the entry defaults KEYED per 4.03/5.05 (market NOTE doctrine).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Nvidia reported after the close 08-26 and NVDA jumped 8.7 percent on 08-27 per the CNBC market wrap (TheStreet corroborating intraday), exceeding the 6 percent trigger against the 08-26 close." } }, { "statement": "At the sentencing hearing scheduled for 2026-09-04 at Preston Crown Court, at least one of the five Barclays-branch Palestine Action defendants (Atiqnisar, Kelly, Malik, O'Hagan, or Yaniv) receives an immediate custodial sentence.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 40, "resolution": "Resolves YES if Preston Crown Court sentencing coverage (BBC, Guardian, PA Media, or comparable outlets) confirms at least one of the five defendants receives an immediate custodial sentence rather than a suspended sentence, community order, or fine; resolves NO if all five receive non-custodial or suspended sentences.", "deadline": "2026-09-08", "citations": [ 11 ], "failure_condition": "Sentencing results in no immediate custodial term for any of the five defendants, or no confirmed sentencing outcome is available by the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-21_1524.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-05", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-21_1524.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T03:21:12.615030+00:00", "seal_sha256": "475738f1a43888c04afbd4f05250c225cd5a66a602b4358e2f527a3c6f077a03", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [11] carry the claim's operative terms (action, barclays-branch, five, palestine, sentence, sentencing); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "The NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion issued in November 2026 states that El Nino conditions are present.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 85, "resolution": "TRUE if the CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion dated in November 2026 characterizes the state of the system as El Nino conditions present or continuing; FALSE if it states ENSO-neutral or La Nina.", "deadline": "2026-11-30", "citations": [ 88 ], "failure_condition": "The November 2026 CPC discussion characterizes ENSO as anything other than El Nino conditions being present.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-21_1524.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-06", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-21_1524.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T03:21:15.488335+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7c5059b9c20c0c80382df8e261cd4fae987b7ded6f2080778fa82c74f63fa922" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent front-month futures settle at or above USD 110.00 per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-24 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "economics", "probability": 22, "resolution": "TRUE if the ICE published settlement price for the Brent front-month contract is 110.00 USD per barrel or higher on any trading day in that range; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-12-03", "citations": [ 57, 80 ], "failure_condition": "Every ICE Brent front-month settlement inside the window prints below USD 110.00 per barrel.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-21_1524.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-07", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-21_1524.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T03:21:15.488357+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c9aed5faa1836fc694dfd9f5e3479b5075ceea46b90edd0694d07740034d7e1f" }, { "statement": "A document published in the Federal Register between 2026-08-24 and 2026-11-30 sets or amends a tariff-rate quota, duty rate or import allocation for beef entering the United States.", "domain": "economics", "probability": 50, "resolution": "TRUE if a federalregister.gov query over that publication-date range returns at least one rule, proclamation or notice whose text sets or amends beef import duty or quota terms; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 46 ], "failure_condition": "No Federal Register document published inside the window sets or amends beef import duty or quota terms.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-21_1524.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-08", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-21_1524.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T03:21:15.488367+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2cbd94e684746e4cd8ce20a39bf11e87291b93f085950836763cc096d9a0b89a" }, { "statement": "CISA adds CVE-2026-19478, the GitLab CE/EE GraphQL code-injection flaw (CVSS 9.4) reported exploited in the wild on 2026-08-19, to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-18.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 45, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog JSON feed contains an entry with cveID CVE-2026-19478 whose dateAdded field is a date from 2026-08-21 through 2026-09-18 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 24 ], "failure_condition": "At the deadline the KEV catalog has no entry for CVE-2026-19478, or its dateAdded falls outside 2026-08-21 through 2026-09-18.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-21_1524.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-09", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-21_1524.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T03:30:12.186581+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d7399d43d4774233051a1d83281e4323721773959912e065004879bec9ecf89d", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [24] carry the claim's operative terms (exploited, gitlab); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "CISA adds CVE-2026-69836, the Microsoft Entra ID deserialization remote code execution flaw (CVSS 10.0) that Microsoft says was exploited and is already mitigated server-side, to the KEV catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-18.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog JSON feed contains an entry with cveID CVE-2026-69836 whose dateAdded field is a date from 2026-08-21 through 2026-09-18 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 20, 25 ], "failure_condition": "At the deadline the KEV catalog has no entry for CVE-2026-69836, or its dateAdded falls outside 2026-08-21 through 2026-09-18.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-21_1524.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-10", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-21_1524.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T03:30:12.186606+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0757df083161dbf6ff3998737326785177316d92f0988c686e9f559c2fcf8d1e", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [20, 25] carry the claim's operative terms (cvss, entra, exploited, flaw, microsoft); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-18, the USGS catalog records an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 150 km of the August 21, 2026 M6.7 Peru mainshock epicenter near Aniso, Peru.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 20, "resolution": "Resolves YES if the USGS Earthquake Catalog lists an event of magnitude 6.0 or greater with an epicenter within 150 km of the M6.7 Peru mainshock, occurring between 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-18; resolves NO otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-21", "citations": [ 35, 37 ], "failure_condition": "No earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 150 km of the mainshock epicenter appears in the USGS catalog for the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-21_1524.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-11", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-21_1524.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T03:30:13.055113+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e520cb97e8b7852926b7b124ab23180fd2a92b924888b659ce1b71025d0ae2d8", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "FLIPPED from machine KEYED (basis was the token(s) 'aniso, earthquake, peru'). Cited record supplies the mainshock only; no M6+/M5.5+ aftershock appears in any cited prior. Rate claim atop a recorded trigger - operator-claimed KEYLESS (2026-08-15 aftershock family ruling).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-18, the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry for CVE-2026-19478, the GitLab remote code execution flaw reported under active exploitation on 2026-08-21.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 55, "resolution": "Resolves YES if the CISA KEV catalog (kev.cisa.gov or its published JSON feed) lists CVE-2026-19478 with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-18; resolves NO if no such entry exists by the deadline.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 24 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog carries no entry for CVE-2026-19478 with a dateAdded value inside the window by the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-21_1524.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-12", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-21_1524.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T03:30:13.055132+00:00", "seal_sha256": "99542349a49381c825391a1fba726bad70003866195f1d684afd29a26aabcc01", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [24] carry the claim's operative terms (active, exploitation, exploited, gitlab); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-18, the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry for a Microsoft Entra ID product vulnerability, corresponding to the maximum-severity flaw Microsoft disclosed as under active exploitation on 2026-08-21.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "Resolves YES if the CISA KEV catalog lists at least one CVE with vendorProject Microsoft and a product field containing Entra, with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-18; resolves NO if no such entry exists by the deadline.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 20, 25 ], "failure_condition": "No Microsoft Entra ID product entry appears in the CISA KEV catalog with a dateAdded value inside the window by the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-21_1524.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-13", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-21_1524.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T03:30:13.055141+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9305289f1993dac32490d51d421b86e1aa597a6229d14a619ce8fa5c7f3c6471", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [20, 25] carry the claim's operative terms (entra, exploitation, exploited, flaw, microsoft); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-18, United States military forces carry out a kinetic strike on a target inside Iranian sovereign territory, including territorial waters.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 15, "resolution": "Resolves YES if the strike is corroborated under the two-independent-side standard used in this record (for example, both Iranian and Western or Gulf-state sources) reporting a U.S. strike on Iranian territory within the window; resolves NO otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 57, 80, 95 ], "failure_condition": "No corroborated report meeting the two-side standard describes a U.S. strike on Iranian territory in the window; sanctions, troop repositioning, or rhetorical threats alone do not satisfy this condition.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-21_1524.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-14", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-21_1524.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T03:30:13.055150+00:00", "seal_sha256": "dd9923712efc05000e95a48ed4acc244ff48bed95cda84e93cb11df50ee7fd93", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [57, 80, 95] carry the claim's operative terms (iranian, military); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-18, Swedish police or prosecutors publicly classify the August 21, 2026 sword attack at a Swedish school as a terrorist offense under Swedish law.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 25, "resolution": "Resolves YES if Polisen or the Swedish Prosecution Authority states, per reporting from BBC, Reuters, AP, TT, or a major Swedish outlet, that the attack is being investigated or charged as a terrorist offense under the Swedish Act on Criminal Responsibility for Terrorist Offences; resolves NO if authorities charge it solely as attempted murder, aggravated assault, or a similar non-terrorism offense, or make no such classification by the deadline.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 9 ], "failure_condition": "By the deadline, Swedish authorities have made no statement classifying the attack as terrorism; the case remains charged or investigated only under ordinary criminal offenses.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-21_1524.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-15", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-21_1524.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T03:30:13.055158+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5cf60b031c97852afd94319e435aff55b9340141a05e3febdfff3cebd58e13a3", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [9] carry the claim's operative terms (attack, school, swedish, sword); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-12-31, a Hong Kong court sentences Lee Cheuk-yan or Chow Hang-tung in the West Kowloon incitement-to-subversion case, and at least one of the two receives an immediate custodial term of 3 years or longer.", "domain": "political", "probability": 45, "resolution": "Resolves YES if Hong Kong court reporting (for example HKFP, RTHK, Reuters, AP, SCMP) confirms a sentencing decision for Lee Cheuk-yan or Chow Hang-tung between 2026-08-21 and 2026-12-31 in which at least one receives an immediate custodial term of 3 years or longer; resolves NO if sentencing occurs but neither meets that term, or the case has not reached sentencing by the window close.", "deadline": "2027-01-05", "citations": [ 93, 111 ], "failure_condition": "By 2026-12-31, the case has not reached sentencing, or sentencing occurred but neither Lee Cheuk-yan nor Chow Hang-tung received an immediate custodial term of 3 years or longer.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-21_1524.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-16", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-21_1524.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T03:30:13.055166+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1eeaee3838a6069e2aeac35ee60833e0bd318aef12cefe0cf01466829edcdad5" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog carries an entry for CVE-2026-19478 with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-21 and 2026-10-23.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 55, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed contains cveID CVE-2026-19478 with a dateAdded on or after 2026-08-21 and on or before 2026-10-23; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 24 ], "failure_condition": "CVE-2026-19478 is absent from the KEV catalog at the deadline, or carries a dateAdded outside 2026-08-21 through 2026-10-23.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-21_1524.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-17", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-21_1524.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T03:30:13.911131+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b09e4256944d42527efac76d7347a7c6d1e514afb49f9ce0e0a08f3971a6a7a4" }, { "statement": "CISA adds at least one vulnerability whose vendorProject field is Siemens to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-21 and 2026-11-27.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 18, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed holds at least one record with vendorProject equal to Siemens and dateAdded inside that range; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 30 ], "failure_condition": "No Siemens-vendor record in the KEV feed carries a dateAdded inside the window when the feed is fetched at the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-21_1524.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-18", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-21_1524.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T03:30:13.911151+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7ca22febb411f59f6bf884d6ce11328b2219dc168af2eb007aa0202340bc0408" }, { "statement": "At least one Hong Kong Alliance vigil organiser convicted on 2026-08-21 receives an unsuspended custodial sentence handed down between 2026-08-21 and 2027-01-15.", "domain": "political", "probability": 65, "resolution": "TRUE if a Hong Kong court imposes imprisonment, not wholly suspended, on at least one convicted organiser inside that range, per two of Reuters, AFP, AP, BBC, SCMP; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2027-01-22", "citations": [ 111, 93 ], "failure_condition": "No convicted organiser receives an unsuspended prison term inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-21_1524.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-19", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-21_1524.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T03:30:13.911161+00:00", "seal_sha256": "73cfa28afa091f95a1fd7ac71472da950d24017b4747945025dff5cd952290c5" }, { "statement": "Swedish prosecutors file an indictment against at least one suspect over the 2026-08-21 Swedish school sword attack, with the filing occurring between 2026-08-21 and 2026-12-11.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 45, "resolution": "TRUE if Swedish Prosecution Authority or court records show an indictment filed inside that range for this attack, confirmed by two of SVT, TT, Reuters, BBC, AFP; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-12-18", "citations": [ 9 ], "failure_condition": "No indictment over the attack is filed inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-21_1524.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-20", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-21_1524.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T03:30:13.911169+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f4894ebc65952fa88f92ffc382b6e77605018d1cfad1b9e0572c4e804ba06581" }, { "statement": "U.S. and Canadian officials announce a new bilateral tariff agreement between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "A joint statement from U.S. and Canadian officials, published in at least two independent outlets (e.g., BBC, CNBC), confirms a new bilateral tariff agreement between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28.", "deadline": "2026-09-02", "citations": [ 32, 40, 102 ], "failure_condition": "No joint statement from U.S. and Canadian officials confirming a new bilateral tariff agreement is published in two or more independent outlets during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260822-21", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-22_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-22_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T15:18:00.813642+00:00", "seal_sha256": "905d09f61da7027b89e74eabf3b0d90c22e904564bd4bcb47ab6b5522c6be758", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [32, 40, 102] carry the claim's operative terms (canadian, tariff); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A major earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher occurs in the Scotia Sea between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 20, "resolution": "The USGS Significant Quakes catalog records a magnitude 6.5 or higher earthquake in the Scotia Sea between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28, with a depth of 10 km or less.", "deadline": "2026-09-02", "citations": [ 29 ], "failure_condition": "No magnitude 6.5 or higher earthquake in the Scotia Sea with depth ≤10 km is recorded in the USGS Significant Quakes catalog during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260822-22", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-22_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-22_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T15:18:00.813665+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3e4fd85bb68f67675cde49f7b77858611ad3ca5ed2f6eb224e6a4d3efedbc5d0", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [29] carry the claim's operative terms (depth, earthquake, magnitude, scotia); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Iran announces the resumption of uranium enrichment at 60% purity between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "Iran's foreign ministry or state media announces, via a public statement, the resumption of uranium enrichment at 60% purity between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28, confirmed by at least two independent outlets (AXIS, WEST).", "deadline": "2026-09-02", "citations": [ 48, 95 ], "failure_condition": "No public statement from Iran's foreign ministry or state media confirms the resumption of 60% uranium enrichment during the event window, verified by two independent outlets.", "id": "KKR-20260822-23", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-22_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-22_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T15:18:00.813678+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a77aa14695778165ffb492617137fb6afdab498eb321e4cd11e45792d0a6d71a", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A cyberattack using a proxy botnet malware infects at least 10,000 vehicles with Android-based head units between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 18, "resolution": "At least 10,000 vehicles with Android-based head units are confirmed infected by proxy botnet malware, as reported by BleepingComputer or The Hacker News between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28.", "deadline": "2026-09-02", "citations": [ 13, 19 ], "failure_condition": "No public report from BleepingComputer or The Hacker News confirms infection of 10,000 or more vehicles with proxy botnet malware during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260822-24", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-22_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-22_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T15:18:00.813687+00:00", "seal_sha256": "328a1b0eb74a4471510f04054ffacb0b0d7312239756d19b1823b5a46662c093", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A new political scandal involving a U.S. federal official is confirmed by two independent outlets between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28", "domain": "political", "probability": 32, "resolution": "Two independent outlets (e.g., BBC, Guardian, Politico) publish a confirmed report of a political scandal involving a U.S. federal official between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28, with corroboration from a third source.", "deadline": "2026-09-02", "citations": [ 82, 83, 85, 91, 101 ], "failure_condition": "No two independent outlets confirm a political scandal involving a U.S. federal official during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260822-25", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-22_1516.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-22_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T15:18:00.813696+00:00", "seal_sha256": "12d2453bedfac62aa031b732e77ea47369828583aedf8ffa1f13aa46db5dda5f", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "USGS records an earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or greater within 100 km of the 2026-08-20 M6.7 Aniso, Peru epicenter (14.641 S, 73.524 W) with origin time between 2026-08-24 and 2026-09-23.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 10, "resolution": "The USGS ComCat catalog lists an event of magnitude 5.5 or greater, any depth, within 100 km of 14.641 S 73.524 W, origin time 2026-08-24 00:00 UTC to 2026-09-23 23:59 UTC.", "deadline": "2026-09-25", "citations": [ 31 ], "failure_condition": "No USGS ComCat event of magnitude 5.5 or greater within 100 km of the epicenter has an origin time between 2026-08-24 and 2026-09-23.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-22_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-26", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-22_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T17:46:51.960133+00:00", "seal_sha256": "cb1928aa189a41ab7ab15bea9eb5849e16dd1b28215d92d35d5a0bd60c8c4591", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "FLIPPED from machine KEYED (basis was the token(s) 'aniso'). Cited record supplies the mainshock only; no M6+/M5.5+ aftershock appears in any cited prior. Rate claim atop a recorded trigger - operator-claimed KEYLESS (2026-08-15 aftershock family ruling).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A Labor MP holds office as Premier of Victoria on 2027-01-15, meaning Labor retained government at the 2026-11-28 Victorian state election.", "domain": "political", "probability": 22, "resolution": "On 2027-01-15 the Parliament of Victoria or Victorian Government official listing shows the sitting Premier as a member of the Australian Labor Party.", "deadline": "2027-01-19", "citations": [ 99 ], "failure_condition": "The Premier of Victoria on 2027-01-15 is not a Labor member.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-22_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-27", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-22_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T17:46:51.960152+00:00", "seal_sha256": "cce141fa53a8548514851c5361f079fa188c1bd7e903717a1f7250ab92817b52" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-23 and 2026-10-02 the governments of the United States and Iran both publicly confirm an agreement (ceasefire or settlement) whose announced terms include reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 25, "resolution": "Statements from both the US government and the government of Iran, dated 2026-08-23 to 2026-10-02, confirm one agreement whose published terms include reopening Hormuz to commercial shipping; confirmed by Reuters and AP.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 48, 59, 95 ], "failure_condition": "No agreement confirmed by both governments and providing for reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is announced between 2026-08-23 and 2026-10-02.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-22_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-28", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-22_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T17:46:51.960162+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f82f4592c77bdc3de1e121ba20e57e0cf79d2d15485ef47323a3f7f3a2206895" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-23 and 2026-10-02 the United States and Canada both announce an agreement that rescinds or suspends the 50 percent US tariffs on Canadian goods that took effect 2026-08-22, and US implementation is published by 2026-10-09.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 30, "resolution": "Both governments announce the agreement between 2026-08-23 and 2026-10-02, and a Federal Register document or CBP CSMS message published by 2026-10-09 removes or suspends the 50 percent tariffs for all or most covered Canadian goods.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 32, 83, 102 ], "failure_condition": "The 50 percent tariffs remain in force on most covered Canadian goods with no jointly announced agreement in the window, or no implementing US document is published by 2026-10-09.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-22_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-29", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-22_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T17:46:51.960170+00:00", "seal_sha256": "95d4d785668bfc4aedb256e2a895d06960d2aff036192d77903a5138a8075180" }, { "statement": "The 10-year US Treasury constant-maturity yield closes at or above 5.00 percent on at least one trading day between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 40, "resolution": "FRED series DGS10 shows a value of 5.00 or higher for at least one observation dated between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 38, 54, 56 ], "failure_condition": "Every DGS10 observation dated 2026-08-24 through 2026-10-30 is below 5.00.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-22_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-30", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-22_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T17:46:51.960180+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a2c247cf9a5159b22cc6a243eddd33f6a9a6f136265ea5941be4bc71328582e4" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog adds at least two distinct Microsoft CVEs in the September 2026 Patch Tuesday week, with dateAdded values between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-11.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 45, "resolution": "The CISA KEV JSON feed contains at least two distinct CVE entries with vendorProject Microsoft and dateAdded between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-11 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-09-15", "citations": [ 14, 18 ], "failure_condition": "Fewer than two KEV entries with vendorProject Microsoft carry a dateAdded between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-11.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-22_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-31", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-22_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T17:46:51.960187+00:00", "seal_sha256": "cdaa789bdaf0b8f0393c9ec038ebf9e2960dd8185c7c35a98977e27c97552b03", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "FLIPPED from machine KEYED (basis was the token 'microsoft'). Cited priors are two Microsoft security items, neither a KEV addition; the Patch-Tuesday-week count of two is stated in no cited record. Throughput claim - operator-claimed KEYLESS.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A single Russian strike on one Ukrainian locality, occurring between 2026-08-24 and 2026-09-13, produces an official Ukrainian death toll of 15 or more.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "Ukrainian State Emergency Service, National Police, or regional military administration states 15 or more killed from one Russian strike on one locality on one day within 2026-08-24 to 2026-09-13, as reported by Reuters or AP.", "deadline": "2026-09-16", "citations": [ 66, 70, 105 ], "failure_condition": "No single Russian strike dated 2026-08-24 to 2026-09-13 reaches an official Ukrainian toll of 15 killed.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-22_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-32", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-22_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T17:46:51.960194+00:00", "seal_sha256": "60348ac24d5071b12163d1768c54e2ca8cdd52c1f3834723b73722603be48abe", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited priors carry Russian strikes on Ukrainian localities; the toll threshold is not stated. Event-toll row - KEYED under attribution (standing family ruling).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-09 the Clark County, Nevada jury in the Tupac Shakur murder trial returns a verdict of guilty of murder (first or second degree) against Duane Davis.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 60, "resolution": "The Eighth Judicial District Court (Clark County) docket, or Reuters or AP, records a jury verdict of guilty of first- or second-degree murder against Duane Davis returned between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-09.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 11 ], "failure_condition": "No jury verdict of guilty of murder against Davis is returned between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-09; acquittal, hung jury, mistrial, plea, or a trial still in progress all make this a MISS.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-22_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-33", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-22_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T17:46:51.960201+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ebe2ea767fe189c37db21476224c7de135e8cb4eb8c9e0c46eda6143717ae20e" }, { "statement": "Democrats win a majority of the US House of Representatives in the 2026-11-03 midterm election, with the Associated Press calling control of the chamber for Democrats by 2026-12-01.", "domain": "political", "probability": 80, "resolution": "By 2026-12-01 the Associated Press has called House control for Democrats, crediting Democratic candidates with at least 218 of 435 seats in the 2026-11-03 general election.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 85, 90, 106 ], "failure_condition": "As of 2026-12-01 the Associated Press has not credited Democrats with at least 218 House seats.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-22_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-34", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-22_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T17:46:51.960208+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c301f41467ac5d32f09c60671e4b4084d28e00ffcd13008e337c0c8aaffde2a4" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-24 and 2027-01-31, Israel or the United States will conduct a direct military strike on internationally recognized Iranian territory, excluding strikes on Iran aligned forces in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, or Yemen.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 20, "resolution": "TRUE if two of Reuters, AP, AFP, or an official Israeli, US, or Iranian statement confirm a strike executed on Iranian territory, excluding Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, or Yemen; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2027-02-03", "citations": [ 48, 95, 59 ], "failure_condition": "Neither Israel nor the United States conducts a confirmed direct strike on Iranian sovereign territory between 2026-08-24 and 2027-01-31.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-22_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-35", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-22_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T17:46:53.446251+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4545209b11ff0b92d5281759cda8a9d0506744bf6cbe30a6a8064db1e433e0b2" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-24 and 2026-09-30, COMEX front month gold futures will settle at or above 4800.00 USD per troy ounce on at least one trading day.", "domain": "economics_markets", "probability": 45, "resolution": "TRUE if CME or COMEX publishes a front month gold futures settlement price of 4800.00 USD per ounce or higher on any trading day in the window; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-30", "citations": [ 38, 54, 56 ], "failure_condition": "COMEX front month gold futures never settle at or above 4800.00 USD per ounce on any trading day between 2026-08-24 and 2026-09-30.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-22_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-36", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-22_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T17:46:53.446270+00:00", "seal_sha256": "cb33fccbb1796f3daacb53fb0d48fc3251957e2af0c2159a0438887e3279597b" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-15, the Government of Canada will formally impose new tariffs on US goods, described by Canadian officials as a dollar for dollar or matching response to the US tariff increase reported on 2026-08-22.", "domain": "political", "probability": 55, "resolution": "TRUE if Finance Canada or the Canadian government announces new tariffs on US goods described as a dollar for dollar or matching response, confirmed by Reuters or CBC; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 83, 40, 32 ], "failure_condition": "Canada does not formally impose new tariffs on US goods framed as a dollar for dollar response between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-15.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-22_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-37", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-22_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T17:46:53.446280+00:00", "seal_sha256": "28877e244b62d6b0ed4ba18e0f2a2e97e2b9c2757dda792cd8342a24014077f6" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-31, a named cybersecurity outlet will report a confirmed unauthorized access incident, data breach, or cloud resource abuse case attributed to the leaked AWS keys documented on 2026-08-21.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 20, "resolution": "TRUE if BleepingComputer, The Hacker News, or Krebs on Security reports a specific breach or resource abuse incident attributed to the leaked AWS keys by the deadline; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 17 ], "failure_condition": "No confirmed unauthorized access incident or breach is publicly attributed to the leaked AWS keys between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-31.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-22_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-38", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-22_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T17:46:53.446287+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3fb0fd32476389c070cd687ee98d22a69d0179e452fd661fe8d1d01cd8300978" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-24 and 2026-09-21, an aftershock of magnitude 6.0 or greater will occur within 250 km of the August 21, 2026 magnitude 6.7 earthquake near Aniso, Peru.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 15, "resolution": "TRUE if the USGS earthquake catalog lists an event of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 250 km of the Aniso Peru mainshock within the stated window; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-23", "citations": [ 31 ], "failure_condition": "No aftershock of magnitude 6.0 or greater is recorded within 250 km of the Aniso, Peru mainshock between 2026-08-24 and 2026-09-21.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-22_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-39", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-22_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T17:46:53.446294+00:00", "seal_sha256": "898f242c77296900644a1d0d457abe1f6718bf95276ddd8a2c5fd06674fbf431", "keyed_keyless": "keyless", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "FLIPPED from machine KEYED (basis was the token(s) 'aniso'). Cited record supplies the mainshock only; no M6+/M5.5+ aftershock appears in any cited prior. Rate claim atop a recorded trigger - operator-claimed KEYLESS (2026-08-15 aftershock family ruling).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Canadian counter-tariffs on US-origin goods take legal effect between 2026-08-24 and 2026-09-30 in response to the 50 percent US duties imposed 2026-08-22.", "domain": "economics", "probability": 65, "resolution": "Canada Gazette Part II or a Department of Finance Canada order shows a surtax on US-origin goods with an effective date between 2026-08-24 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 32, 40, 102 ], "failure_condition": "No Canadian surtax on US-origin goods carries an effective date inside the window, whether because talks resume, retaliation is deferred, or only a consultation list is published.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-22_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-40", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-22_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T17:46:54.268895+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7668acbd6dc69c535758a17be687779833e0a7161593e9a80bdea35293651c73" }, { "statement": "A complaint challenging the lawfulness of the Section 338 tariffs on Canadian goods is filed in a US federal court between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-16.", "domain": "political", "probability": 72, "resolution": "A US Court of International Trade or federal district court docket shows a complaint filed in that window seeking to invalidate or enjoin the Section 338 duties on Canadian imports.", "deadline": "2026-10-21", "citations": [ 32, 83, 102 ], "failure_condition": "No complaint attacking the Section 338 Canadian tariffs appears on a federal docket with a filing date inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-22_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-41", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-22_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T17:46:54.268915+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6f5a6ddca48960e8b9d76f92b3790b59505f18354d2fb25c25543e2b4eb548a1" }, { "statement": "A general ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war takes effect between 2026-08-24 and 2027-01-31.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 12, "resolution": "Both the Russian and Ukrainian governments announce a general cessation of hostilities taking effect inside the window, reported by Reuters and the Associated Press.", "deadline": "2027-02-05", "citations": [ 66, 70, 105 ], "failure_condition": "No general cessation of hostilities agreed by both governments takes effect inside the window; local, sectoral, or energy-only truces do not satisfy it.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-22_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-42", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-22_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T17:46:54.268924+00:00", "seal_sha256": "71a59ca8a92fe6470f99467a86a1fd4f41ff4ec156554affbc49b2d16343552a" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog gains at least one entry with vendorProject Microsoft and a dateAdded between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 62, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog JSON contains at least one record where vendorProject is Microsoft and dateAdded falls between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-31.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 16, 18 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV catalog holds no Microsoft record with a dateAdded value inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-22_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-43", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-22_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T17:46:54.268934+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f42aedcf9200059824b6a149bbbfffc6e66d17ebacb7818649d82ee221766180" }, { "statement": "A single npm registry supply-chain compromise affecting 100 or more distinct packages occurs between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 32, "resolution": "Two of BleepingComputer, The Hacker News, and Socket describe one npm campaign in which 100 or more distinct packages were published carrying malicious code.", "deadline": "2026-11-06", "citations": [ 15 ], "failure_condition": "No single npm campaign inside the window reaches 100 or more compromised packages; several smaller campaigns summing past 100 do not satisfy it.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-22_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-44", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-22_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T17:46:54.268940+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ac9e3abe339b47be8519b2c62db885e98e9e7878edd59e91abcc30cc1c296627" }, { "statement": "A jury returns a guilty verdict on the murder count against Duane Davis in the Clark County, Nevada prosecution over the 1996 killing of Tupac Shakur, between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-16.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 58, "resolution": "The Clark County District Court docket records a jury verdict of guilty on the murder count, entered inside that window.", "deadline": "2026-10-21", "citations": [ 11 ], "failure_condition": "The jury acquits, hangs, a mistrial is declared, or no verdict is entered before the window closes.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-22_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-45", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-22_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T17:46:54.268947+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2891fb3cc28ae45e8a829d3e65b82edee77bc882856668b1a1f32ebfbf12bf59" }, { "statement": "USGS catalogs at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater with an origin time between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-23.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 55, "resolution": "The USGS ComCat catalog lists at least one event with magnitude 7.5 or above and an origin time between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-23.", "deadline": "2026-10-28", "citations": [ 29, 31 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS catalog holds no event of magnitude 7.5 or greater with an origin time inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-22_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260822-46", "date_issued": "2026-08-22", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-22_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-22T17:46:54.268954+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1021377499f99e73c6b25fd563a4df8068492743044bd04675465690508c31ca" }, { "statement": "A drone strike targeting Kyiv, Ukraine, occurs between 2026-08-24 and 2026-08-30, resulting in at least one confirmed casualty.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 28, "resolution": "At least one confirmed casualty is reported in a drone strike on Kyiv, Ukraine, between 2026-08-24 and 2026-08-30, as verified by two independent, hostile-side news outlets (e.g., Al Jazeera and BBC World).", "deadline": "2026-09-02", "citations": [ 1, 2, 50 ], "failure_condition": "No confirmed casualty is reported in a drone strike on Kyiv, Ukraine, between 2026-08-24 and 2026-08-30, as verified by two independent, hostile-side news outlets.", "id": "KKR-20260823-01", "date_issued": "2026-08-23", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-23_1515.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-23_1515.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-23T15:17:21.054490+00:00", "seal_sha256": "215658c06a09e8fe70120c6091636304283b2bf20c58bfaf14737becda0d9666", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A cyberattack exploiting a vulnerability listed in the CISA KEV catalog occurs between 2026-08-25 and 2026-09-01, disrupting a critical infrastructure provider in the UK.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 32, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-08-25 and 2026-09-01, and a public report confirms a cyberattack disrupting a UK critical infrastructure provider during that window.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 33, 78 ], "failure_condition": "No cyberattack disrupting a UK critical infrastructure provider is confirmed during the event window, or the CISA KEV catalog does not list a vulnerability added during that window.", "id": "KKR-20260823-02", "date_issued": "2026-08-23", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-23_1515.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-23_1515.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-23T15:17:21.054512+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9d06ddd7eaba741967ecee9055ae2728ba45016a800355256e6347e05190e587", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strikes Japan between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-02, with at least 10 fatalities reported.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 22, "resolution": "The USGS Significant Quakes database records a magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake in Japan between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-02, with at least 10 fatalities confirmed by two independent news outlets.", "deadline": "2026-09-05", "citations": [ 25, 15 ], "failure_condition": "No magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake in Japan is recorded by USGS during the event window, or fewer than 10 fatalities are confirmed by two independent news outlets.", "id": "KKR-20260823-03", "date_issued": "2026-08-23", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-23_1515.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-23_1515.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-23T15:17:21.054525+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3b959a77b79a57d67cd899fda96039d70592f8419f9c8aafe2fab56dcaa92a60", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [15, 25] carry the claim's operative terms (earthquake, japan, magnitude, strike); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A new US economic sanction against Iran is formally announced by the Treasury Department between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03, with a public press release issued.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 35, "resolution": "The U.S. Department of the Treasury issues a public press release announcing a new economic sanction against Iran between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03.", "deadline": "2026-09-06", "citations": [ 81, 67 ], "failure_condition": "No public press release from the U.S. Department of the Treasury announcing a new economic sanction against Iran is issued between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03.", "id": "KKR-20260823-04", "date_issued": "2026-08-23", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-23_1515.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-23_1515.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-23T15:17:21.054535+00:00", "seal_sha256": "10a604a0ee835b820c5c8d153c1a941a35465de1309576bb422c7804b87bd38a", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A major offensive operation by Russian forces in the Kursk region of Ukraine begins between 2026-08-28 and 2026-09-04, confirmed by two hostile-side reports with independent corroboration.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 26, "resolution": "Two reports from hostile sides (RU and UA) with independent channels confirm a major offensive operation by Russian forces in the Kursk region of Ukraine between 2026-08-28 and 2026-09-04.", "deadline": "2026-09-07", "citations": [ 1, 4, 50 ], "failure_condition": "No two reports from hostile sides with independent channels confirm a major offensive operation by Russian forces in the Kursk region of Ukraine between 2026-08-28 and 2026-09-04.", "id": "KKR-20260823-05", "date_issued": "2026-08-23", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-23_1515.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-23_1515.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-23T15:17:21.054543+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9c5b93fd860bbae4546db47fc111237ff181a88e82e6bac74bbc4d30ec15d25d", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A new political crisis emerges in the UK Parliament over the recognition of Israel's actions in Gaza, with a formal motion of no confidence tabled between 2026-08-30 and 2026-09-06.", "domain": "political", "probability": 30, "resolution": "A formal motion of no confidence in the UK Parliament regarding recognition of Israel's actions in Gaza is tabled between 2026-08-30 and 2026-09-06, as confirmed by two independent news outlets.", "deadline": "2026-09-09", "citations": [ 88, 80 ], "failure_condition": "No formal motion of no confidence regarding recognition of Israel's actions in Gaza is tabled in the UK Parliament between 2026-08-30 and 2026-09-06, as confirmed by two independent news outlets.", "id": "KKR-20260823-06", "date_issued": "2026-08-23", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-23_1515.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-23_1515.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-23T15:17:21.054552+00:00", "seal_sha256": "84c4767d9b5b18797f1badfe13c237394f1fd4811703f8ed5e0458669f06ff05", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A major wildfire breaks out in California, USA, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-07, with at least 500 homes destroyed, confirmed by two independent sources.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 20, "resolution": "Two independent sources (e.g., NPR News and Al Jazeera) confirm a major wildfire in California, USA, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-07, with at least 500 homes destroyed.", "deadline": "2026-09-10", "citations": [ 27, 17 ], "failure_condition": "No major wildfire in California, USA, with at least 500 homes destroyed is confirmed by two independent sources between 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-07.", "id": "KKR-20260823-07", "date_issued": "2026-08-23", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-23_1515.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-23_1515.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-23T15:17:21.054561+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a251530f55b3720bbc8019e6c53aeb120109d7bacc6c97d81800038be5bffb25", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A new round of sanctions on Russia is imposed by the European Union, with a formal press release issued between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-08, confirmed by two independent news outlets.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 24, "resolution": "The European Commission issues a formal press release announcing new sanctions on Russia between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-08, confirmed by two independent news outlets (e.g., BBC World and Al Jazeera).", "deadline": "2026-09-11", "citations": [ 42, 50 ], "failure_condition": "No formal press release from the European Commission announcing new sanctions on Russia is issued between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-08, or it is not confirmed by two independent news outlets.", "id": "KKR-20260823-08", "date_issued": "2026-08-23", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-23_1515.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-23_1515.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-23T15:17:21.054569+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e2f8c574453b0b514d055d9907c88dde9f346a7462b733b28aa5b8b0171cd6ea", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A drone strike on a military facility in Damascus, Syria, results in at least one confirmed casualty between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-09, confirmed by two hostile-side reports.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 27, "resolution": "Two reports from hostile sides (PS, AXIS, WEST) with independent channels confirm a drone strike on a military facility in Damascus, Syria, between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-09, with at least one confirmed casualty.", "deadline": "2026-09-12", "citations": [ 3, 72 ], "failure_condition": "No drone strike on a military facility in Damascus, Syria, with at least one confirmed casualty is confirmed by two hostile-side reports between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-09.", "id": "KKR-20260823-09", "date_issued": "2026-08-23", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-23_1515.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-23_1515.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-23T15:17:21.054577+00:00", "seal_sha256": "92769b0e9c10e120e924fe9baf6dcd2880bb887610344e5b6222ed4425ed54be", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Airstrikes on Gaza City, Gaza Strip, will result in at least one confirmed fatality between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "At least one confirmed fatality from an airstrike in Gaza City, as reported by two or more independent news outlets with differing geopolitical affiliations, including at least one from a Western, Israeli, or Palestinian source, with the event occurring between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31.", "deadline": "2026-09-03", "citations": [ 1, 4 ], "failure_condition": "No confirmed fatality from an airstrike in Gaza City is reported by two or more independently biased sources within the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260824-01", "date_issued": "2026-08-24", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-24_1533.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-24_1533.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-24T15:35:22.118546+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1801fabb11d5d1b15f4aef673a5880eed862c5a788dccd68864f6ed0c905fe2a", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A drone strike will be reported in Deir Al-Balah, Gaza Strip, resulting in at least one injury between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 35, "resolution": "At least one confirmed injury from a drone strike in Deir Al-Balah, as reported by two or more independently biased news outlets, including at least one from a Western, Israeli, or Palestinian source, with the event occurring between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31.", "deadline": "2026-09-03", "citations": [ 2, 5 ], "failure_condition": "No confirmed injury from a drone strike in Deir Al-Balah is reported by two or more independently biased sources within the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260824-02", "date_issued": "2026-08-24", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-24_1533.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-24_1533.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-24T15:35:22.118574+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0b2af13fe0ce52b45e26db1533037a6d6f0983c1de89d2cd72edd5c3b142961c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog will include a new entry for a vulnerability in Zimbra software with a severity rating of Critical or High between 2026-08-25 and 2026-09-01.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog, accessible at https://www.cisa.gov/kev, will contain a new entry with a date-added value between 2026-08-25 and 2026-09-01, referencing a Zimbra software vulnerability with a severity rating of Critical or High.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 27, 18 ], "failure_condition": "No new Zimbra-related vulnerability with Critical or High severity is added to the CISA KEV catalog between 2026-08-25 and 2026-09-01.", "id": "KKR-20260824-03", "date_issued": "2026-08-24", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-24_1533.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-24_1533.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-24T15:35:22.118588+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2a04ffa9deb378ad3b3c3aa75860daec5bab4bdda1cc40c087576c4ff6264f58", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "The S&P 500 will close below 7,600.00 on at least one weekday between 2026-08-25 and 2026-09-01.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 65, "resolution": "The closing value of the S&P 500 index, as reported by the CBOE or a major financial data provider such as Bloomberg or Reuters, will be below 7,600.00 on at least one weekday between 2026-08-25 and 2026-09-01.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 5, 50 ], "failure_condition": "The S&P 500 closes at or above 7,600.00 on every weekday between 2026-08-25 and 2026-09-01.", "id": "KKR-20260824-04", "date_issued": "2026-08-24", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-24_1533.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-24_1533.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-24T15:35:22.118597+00:00", "seal_sha256": "43951dae302a489f6476430cc5a1650fcd7322741f0c5e14ec45a3b35c0b798c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A drone strike will be reported in Kyiv, Ukraine, resulting in at least one confirmed casualty between 2026-08-25 and 2026-09-01.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 32, "resolution": "At least one confirmed casualty from a drone strike in Kyiv, as reported by two or more independently biased news outlets, including at least one from a Western or Ukrainian source, with the event occurring between 2026-08-25 and 2026-09-01.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 6, 10 ], "failure_condition": "No confirmed casualty from a drone strike in Kyiv is reported by two or more independently biased sources within the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260824-05", "date_issued": "2026-08-24", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-24_1533.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-24_1533.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-24T15:35:22.118606+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2957fe4d7290740245577ea01c436032743394b74984eddcbf2a25295cffbf00", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [6] carry the claim's operative terms (ukraine, ukrainian); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A new cyberattack campaign targeting critical infrastructure in the U.S. will be attributed to a foreign state actor by CISA between 2026-08-25 and 2026-09-01.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 28, "resolution": "CISA will issue a public advisory or alert, accessible at https://www.cisa.gov/ or a major news outlet, attributing a cyberattack campaign targeting U.S. critical infrastructure to a foreign state actor, with the advisory issued between 2026-08-25 and 2026-09-01.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 27, 18 ], "failure_condition": "No public attribution by CISA of a cyberattack on U.S. critical infrastructure to a foreign state actor is issued between 2026-08-25 and 2026-09-01.", "id": "KKR-20260824-06", "date_issued": "2026-08-24", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-24_1533.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-24_1533.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-24T15:35:22.118615+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ede706c3819968e90e7ec7a94d21b81eaefece01cfe39c7aecc3561129e82d5e", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Airstrikes on Gaza City occurred between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31, resulting in at least one confirmed casualty as reported by Al Jazeera and BBC World.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31, and at least one of the following outlets reports a confirmed casualty: Al Jazeera, BBC World, or The Guardian.", "deadline": "2026-09-03", "citations": [ 6, 39, 40 ], "failure_condition": "No report from Al Jazeera, BBC World, or The Guardian confirms a casualty from an airstrike on Gaza City between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31.", "id": "KKR-20260825-01", "date_issued": "2026-08-25", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-25T15:19:33.137138+00:00", "seal_sha256": "57f74be0c5bc24cb754a75fabdf91b51fa8fc1e06a84851dd8aa8940018c28fb", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A drone attack on a refinery in Russia's Krasnodar region caused a fire and at least two fatalities between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 35, "resolution": "Al Jazeera reports a drone attack on a refinery in Russia's Krasnodar region between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31, resulting in at least two fatalities.", "deadline": "2026-09-03", "citations": [ 40 ], "failure_condition": "Al Jazeera does not report a drone attack on a refinery in Russia's Krasnodar region between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31, or reports no fatalities.", "id": "KKR-20260825-02", "date_issued": "2026-08-25", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-25T15:19:33.137162+00:00", "seal_sha256": "412ffb9b8d06a624ae118816b0bd68ba20428b90f60021516eaa2af9dac020b5", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "The S&P 500 index closed above 7,700 on a weekday between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The S&P 500 closes above 7,700 on a weekday between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31, as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED).", "deadline": "2026-09-03", "citations": [ 5, 70 ], "failure_condition": "The S&P 500 does not close above 7,700 on any weekday between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31.", "id": "KKR-20260825-03", "date_issued": "2026-08-25", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-25T15:19:33.137175+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a0fa92466411b537c838fe5200af300b2eed2b3eff2aa5dbf3d9a0a9b994fb23", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A new U.S. federal law was enacted to impose sanctions on Iran, with at least 60 entities listed, between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31.", "domain": "political", "probability": 20, "resolution": "The Federal Register publishes a new U.S. law imposing sanctions on Iran, listing at least 60 entities, between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31.", "deadline": "2026-09-03", "citations": [ 115, 127 ], "failure_condition": "The Federal Register does not publish a new U.S. law imposing sanctions on Iran with at least 60 entities listed between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31.", "id": "KKR-20260825-04", "date_issued": "2026-08-25", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-25T15:19:33.137183+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8e66a3d0293c95b70a9b58f3a726752f24595845d5738e3e1b7cc4b4bfe94318", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A magnitude 5.5 or higher earthquake occurred in Japan between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31, with a depth of less than 100 km.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The USGS Significant Quakes catalog lists an earthquake with magnitude 5.5 or higher and depth less than 100 km in Japan between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31.", "deadline": "2026-09-03", "citations": [ 47, 53 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS Significant Quakes catalog does not list an earthquake with magnitude 5.5 or higher and depth less than 100 km in Japan between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31.", "id": "KKR-20260825-05", "date_issued": "2026-08-25", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-25T15:19:33.137193+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ccc6e27f09b9d701880ec417de2a23f49673df44d4cb5cf77b9224aece412ef9", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A new U.S. tariff on Canadian goods, valued at $20 billion, was announced by the Canadian government between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "CNBC Top News reports that the Canadian government announced a retaliatory tariff on $20 billion of U.S. goods between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31.", "deadline": "2026-09-03", "citations": [ 57, 123 ], "failure_condition": "CNBC Top News does not report that the Canadian government announced a retaliatory tariff on $20 billion of U.S. goods between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31.", "id": "KKR-20260825-06", "date_issued": "2026-08-25", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-25T15:19:33.137202+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b036e1210a530772818686e655ae6b477f9fcaa5e240242a3ffd5ae6486d2dde", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [57] carry the claim's operative terms (billion, canadian, retaliatory, tariff); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A major cyberattack targeting a U.S. defense contractor was confirmed by CISA between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 35, "resolution": "CISA Advisories publishes a new advisory confirming a cyberattack on a U.S. defense contractor between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31.", "deadline": "2026-09-03", "citations": [ 22, 23 ], "failure_condition": "CISA Advisories does not publish a new advisory confirming a cyberattack on a U.S. defense contractor between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31.", "id": "KKR-20260825-07", "date_issued": "2026-08-25", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-25T15:19:33.137210+00:00", "seal_sha256": "26d9bfa3a77ca3fa31904c17db0b5286c0e6ffae19db8a3106e3dc0e2460e9c1", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-26 and 2026-11-30, a Russian presidential decree ordering a new general or partial mobilization of citizens into the armed forces is published on the official legal portal publication.pravo.gov.ru.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 20, "resolution": "TRUE if publication.pravo.gov.ru carries a presidential decree dated 2026-08-26 through 2026-11-30 ordering general or partial mobilization of citizens; routine conscription-campaign and reservist training-assembly decrees do not count.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 99 ], "failure_condition": "No presidential decree ordering general or partial mobilization of citizens, with a date inside the window, appears on the official legal portal.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260825-08", "date_issued": "2026-08-25", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-25T16:33:51.204455+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d2f19539a001f8f40d72d00ce1ec8577bd2e11a8396448eb7a4492c1587be931" }, { "statement": "Nvidia (NVDA) official Nasdaq closing price on 2026-08-27, the session after its scheduled 2026-08-26 after-close earnings release, is more than 5.0 percent above or below its 2026-08-26 official close.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 40, "resolution": "TRUE if the Nasdaq official closing price of NVDA on 2026-08-27 differs from the 2026-08-26 official close by more than 5.0 percent in either direction; a move of exactly 5.0 percent or less is FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-01", "citations": [ 59, 61 ], "failure_condition": "The NVDA official close on 2026-08-27 is within 5.0 percent of the official close on 2026-08-26.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260825-09", "date_issued": "2026-08-25", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] NVDA closed up 8.7 percent on 08-27 versus the 08-26 close following the after-hours earnings beat, per the CNBC 08-27 market wrap, exceeding the 5.0 percent threshold in either direction.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-25T16:33:51.204476+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4b40c0eb38c04c805703ffc27ff88adc3088dc0b58254cfaca223259cdae425e", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Market-threshold claim with no numeric reference level stated at seal; the keyed/keyless gap is unmeasurable and the entry defaults KEYED per 4.03/5.05 (market NOTE doctrine).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "NVDA closed up 8.7 percent on 08-27 versus the 08-26 close following the after-hours earnings beat, per the CNBC 08-27 market wrap, exceeding the 5.0 percent threshold in either direction." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-25 and 2026-10-31, the HHS Office for Civil Rights breach portal posts an entry naming Nutex Health or a Nutex-affiliated hospital with 500 or more individuals affected.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 60, "resolution": "TRUE if the HHS OCR breach portal lists an entry whose covered-entity name contains Nutex or names a hospital Nutex Health publicly identifies as its facility, with submission date 2026-08-25 through 2026-10-31 and 500 or more individuals affected.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 14 ], "failure_condition": "No qualifying Nutex-linked entry with 500 or more individuals affected and a submission date inside the window appears on the HHS OCR breach portal.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260825-10", "date_issued": "2026-08-25", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-25T16:33:51.204487+00:00", "seal_sha256": "01f49a0739adb464e4ec6a10fa0b25c720a247e9d5851bd76a1cde7690577741" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-26 and 2026-10-31, CISA adds to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog at least one Zimbra Collaboration vulnerability other than CVE-2026-73570.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 55, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog JSON contains an entry whose vendorProject or product field includes Zimbra, with a dateAdded value 2026-08-26 through 2026-10-31, and a cveID other than CVE-2026-73570.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 21 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV catalog contains no Zimbra entry other than CVE-2026-73570 with a dateAdded value inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260825-11", "date_issued": "2026-08-25", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-25T16:33:51.204495+00:00", "seal_sha256": "95261d37e558fda9c24eb95afc5dc5749f43bba4324f9ddeae34341be100d61c" }, { "statement": "On at least one day between 2026-08-26 and 2026-10-15, the Singapore National Environment Agency 24-hour PSI for at least one of the five reporting regions reaches 101 or higher.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if NEA published 24-hour PSI data (data.gov.sg historical PSI or NEA haze page) shows a value of 101 or higher for any region on any day 2026-08-26 through 2026-10-15.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 41 ], "failure_condition": "Every NEA 24-hour regional PSI reading for every day in the window is 100 or below.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260825-12", "date_issued": "2026-08-25", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-25T16:33:51.204504+00:00", "seal_sha256": "844e1bb3f1290eba93c844b5da18caaff8acd564cdf5e9df4b4e874537a6f670" }, { "statement": "The government of Iran submits or publicly announces formal withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 7, "resolution": "TRUE if Iran files a withdrawal notice under NPT Article X or a wire service (Reuters, AP, AFP) reports such an announcement, dated between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-30; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 115, 126, 130 ], "failure_condition": "No NPT withdrawal notice or wire-service-confirmed withdrawal announcement from Iran appears inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260825-13", "date_issued": "2026-08-25", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-25T16:33:52.095016+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d8eb3d8866940ba7cd282cc64dcccd6426aa8bc23a29689ccb7903a06c21e967" }, { "statement": "A New York state court issues any order or ruling, including on a preliminary motion, in the business-group lawsuit against the city-owned grocery store initiative, between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 28, "resolution": "TRUE if the case docket in the New York court e-filing system shows a judicial order or ruling entered between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-30 in this case; FALSE if no order is entered.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 109 ], "failure_condition": "The court docket shows no order or ruling entered in the case inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260825-14", "date_issued": "2026-08-25", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-25T16:33:52.095036+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2d9732c8f2483fbed121bc266bdce3f5204276ce27b180897b6e5db9e7358140" }, { "statement": "A named law-enforcement agency (Europol, FBI, or a national police force) announces additional arrests connected to the global cybercrime crackdown, between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-08.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if Europol, the FBI, or a national police agency issues a press release naming additional arrests tied to this operation, dated 2026-08-26 through 2026-09-08; FALSE if no such release appears.", "deadline": "2026-09-11", "citations": [ 11 ], "failure_condition": "No named law-enforcement agency issues a release announcing further arrests tied to this operation inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260825-15", "date_issued": "2026-08-25", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-25T16:33:52.095048+00:00", "seal_sha256": "331b00660047fdfd7b0d3dfe740df90fcfcf8d0bdc9e7e551b3bb2565e1f3f50", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [11] carry the claim's operative terms (arrest, crackdown, cybercrime, global, police); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "GDACS raises tropical cyclone JULIO-26 from Green to Orange or Red alert level before the system is marked dissipated, between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-08.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 15, "resolution": "TRUE if the GDACS event page for JULIO-26 shows an Orange or Red alert level at any point between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-08; FALSE if it stays Green or is closed without upgrade.", "deadline": "2026-09-10", "citations": [ 55 ], "failure_condition": "The GDACS alert level for JULIO-26 never exceeds Green before the window closes or the system dissipates.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260825-16", "date_issued": "2026-08-25", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-25T16:33:52.095056+00:00", "seal_sha256": "830c111304b9a7d8a0116af6cc248907370c42593e8872e4b753c5e97416582d", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [55] carry the claim's operative terms (alert, cyclone, green, julio, tropical); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "The HHS Office for Civil Rights breach portal posts a hacking or IT incident breach filed by an entity whose name contains Nutex, with a submission date between 2026-08-25 and 2026-12-15.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 50, "resolution": "TRUE if the OCR breach portal lists an entity containing Nutex, breach type hacking or IT incident, submission date between 2026-08-25 and 2026-12-15 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-12-18", "citations": [ 14 ], "failure_condition": "The OCR portal carries no Nutex-named entity with a submission date inside that window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260825-17", "date_issued": "2026-08-25", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-25T16:33:52.988584+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c9da140b9932d0422b93a108bdeb07855e069789ead132c269f12dd3825425f1" }, { "statement": "The LBMA Gold Price PM auction fixes at or above 5000.00 dollars per troy ounce on at least one business day between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 45, "resolution": "TRUE if any LBMA Gold Price PM fix dated between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30 is 5000.00 dollars or higher in the published LBMA price record.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 69, 71 ], "failure_condition": "Every LBMA PM gold fix inside that window settles below 5000.00 dollars.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260825-18", "date_issued": "2026-08-25", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-25T16:33:52.988604+00:00", "seal_sha256": "06b3b1306af660107d7010dfbc3e262c97c6639fa34337f9b03a0475e090665b" }, { "statement": "The US Federal Register publishes a presidential document imposing or raising tariffs on Canadian-origin goods, with a publication date between 2026-08-26 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 45, "resolution": "TRUE if federalregister.gov returns a presidential document published inside that window whose operative text imposes or increases duties on goods of Canada.", "deadline": "2026-12-03", "citations": [ 57 ], "failure_condition": "No presidential document published inside that window imposes or raises duties on Canadian goods.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260825-19", "date_issued": "2026-08-25", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-25T16:33:52.988614+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f3ac2d2bb77dfca463ed0da3f7897761aba966628b3c5e3d59e2759bbc647753" }, { "statement": "OFAC adds at least one entity with a listed address in mainland China or Hong Kong to the SDN list under an Iran-related program between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 65, "resolution": "TRUE if an OFAC action inside that window designates an entity addressed in China or Hong Kong carrying an Iran-related program tag such as IRAN, IFSR, or IRGC.", "deadline": "2026-12-03", "citations": [ 115, 127, 128 ], "failure_condition": "No OFAC Iran-program designation inside that window lists a China or Hong Kong address.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260825-20", "date_issued": "2026-08-25", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-25T16:33:52.988622+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c01d13c879fe483acd2ff3cc07798941238877345385c0faa3dfdfe59bb36d7e" }, { "statement": "A Russian presidential decree ordering a new partial or general mobilization is published on pravo.gov.ru with a signature date between 2026-09-01 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 10, "resolution": "TRUE if the official Russian legal portal pravo.gov.ru carries a presidential ukaz signed inside that window ordering mobilization of reservists beyond the standing conscription cycle.", "deadline": "2027-01-05", "citations": [ 99 ], "failure_condition": "No mobilization ukaz signed inside that window appears on the official legal portal.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260825-21", "date_issued": "2026-08-25", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-25T16:33:52.988630+00:00", "seal_sha256": "453657f85b57359be68b768052d88aa22ef7027962f527b41ca43340d01b43fa" }, { "statement": "At least four distinct Russian oil refineries are struck in drone attacks between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30, each acknowledged by a Russian regional governor, ministry, or federal agency.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 70, "resolution": "TRUE if four or more separately named Russian refineries are reported hit inside that window with acknowledgment from a Russian governor, ministry, or Rosaviatsia statement.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 40 ], "failure_condition": "Fewer than four distinct Russian refineries are acknowledged as struck inside that window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260825-22", "date_issued": "2026-08-25", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-25T16:33:52.988637+00:00", "seal_sha256": "738189e8b7a1711f72e0038df2434740aa3c6b6e48c70a7db87f9b869ca1d595" }, { "statement": "The US District Court for the District of Columbia docket in the Lockerbie bombing prosecution carries an order setting a new trial date, entered between 2026-08-26 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 55, "resolution": "TRUE if a docket entry in that case, dated inside the window, fixes a specific new trial date, as shown on PACER or CourtListener.", "deadline": "2027-01-06", "citations": [ 98 ], "failure_condition": "No docket entry inside that window fixes a specific new trial date.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260825-23", "date_issued": "2026-08-25", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-25T16:33:52.988646+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a88af0d85514ea9127451239d956503f53c7f7773425da3fee535dd76a5ae6fd" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02, at least one of the following will be reported by two or more independent sources: a drone strike on Kyiv, a missile strike on Zaporizhzhia, or an airstrike on Khan Younis.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 65, "resolution": "At least one of the following is confirmed by two or more independent sources: a drone strike on Kyiv, a missile strike on Zaporizhzhia, or an airstrike on Khan Younis, with the event occurring between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113, 114, 115, 116, 117, 118, 119, 120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 125, 126, 127, 128, 129, 130, 131, 132 ], "failure_condition": "No independent source confirms a drone strike on Kyiv, a missile strike on Zaporizhzhia, or an airstrike on Khan Younis between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02.", "id": "KKR-20260826-01", "date_issued": "2026-08-26", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-26T15:40:42.038481+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9a92379c5456cac802fcce03e4bf7c4fcd86014980fbf44522928d9b2162c2b4", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02, the Federal Reserve will announce a 25 basis point increase in the federal funds rate.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The Federal Reserve announces a 25 basis point increase in the federal funds rate between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 76 ], "failure_condition": "The Federal Reserve does not announce a 25 basis point increase in the federal funds rate between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02.", "id": "KKR-20260826-02", "date_issued": "2026-08-26", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-26T15:40:42.038504+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1e13ca9ccd9bee880eae4e322aa9997eb34bda319ceb48a5458fdc8da2790d3e", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02, the USGS Significant Quakes catalog will record an earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or higher in Japan.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The USGS Significant Quakes catalog records an earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or higher in Japan between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 57 ], "failure_condition": "No earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or higher is recorded in Japan in the USGS Significant Quakes catalog between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02.", "id": "KKR-20260826-03", "date_issued": "2026-08-26", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-26T15:40:42.038514+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0a83033dd475b8059306a64fa67f910c9b1f247f5fdb0d84834d1a70839b468f", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02, the CISA Red Team will be publicly confirmed to have compromised a critical infrastructure organization in the United States.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 40, "resolution": "The CISA Red Team is publicly confirmed to have compromised a critical infrastructure organization in the United States between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 23 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA Red Team is not publicly confirmed to have compromised a critical infrastructure organization in the United States between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02.", "id": "KKR-20260826-04", "date_issued": "2026-08-26", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-26T15:40:42.038523+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3fcf818533b33fb6ba4529050d3127ddc3502160d1cd79a2a4d7667f20f7f749", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02, Iran will publicly announce a new agreement with Oman to maintain temporary maritime access through the Strait of Hormuz.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "Iran publicly announces a new agreement with Oman to maintain temporary maritime access through the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 101 ], "failure_condition": "Iran does not publicly announce a new agreement with Oman to maintain temporary maritime access through the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02.", "id": "KKR-20260826-05", "date_issued": "2026-08-26", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-26T15:40:42.038531+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6349164562ee438553779e803a514f1d55fa1ce888f77d6ef2bb3df761b4e991", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [101] carry the claim's operative terms (agreement, hormuz, iran, oman, temporary); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02, the U.S. Treasury will release a public statement sanctioning a new group of Iranian hackers linked to critical infrastructure breaches.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 45, "resolution": "The U.S. Treasury releases a public statement sanctioning a new group of Iranian hackers linked to critical infrastructure breaches between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 10, 13 ], "failure_condition": "The U.S. Treasury does not release a public statement sanctioning a new group of Iranian hackers linked to critical infrastructure breaches between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02.", "id": "KKR-20260826-06", "date_issued": "2026-08-26", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-26T15:40:42.038540+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a61b63d74996a7e336caf8aa858497e743852d0cfe246b3e368f235d48fd3b43", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02, the European Union will impose new sanctions on Russia related to military actions in Ukraine.", "domain": "political", "probability": 20, "resolution": "The European Union imposes new sanctions on Russia related to military actions in Ukraine between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113, 114, 115, 116, 117, 118, 119, 120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 125, 126, 127, 128, 129, 130, 131, 132 ], "failure_condition": "The European Union does not impose new sanctions on Russia related to military actions in Ukraine between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02.", "id": "KKR-20260826-07", "date_issued": "2026-08-26", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-26T15:40:42.038548+00:00", "seal_sha256": "353aade2644c28907ae5cfe77d896f0e2e8da6074ac9c9721708630e299a5b36", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02, the U.S. Department of Justice will publicly confirm a cyberattack on a major U.S. healthcare provider resulting in data exposure.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The U.S. Department of Justice publicly confirms a cyberattack on a major U.S. healthcare provider resulting in data exposure between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 17, 36 ], "failure_condition": "The U.S. Department of Justice does not publicly confirm a cyberattack on a major U.S. healthcare provider resulting in data exposure between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02.", "id": "KKR-20260826-08", "date_issued": "2026-08-26", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-26T15:40:42.038555+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3ba899f62d81b0efea3cb6aa59d1a43e43faa968155bdf689328c7650cee94de", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Arm cites by position, not content (standing lmstudio arm ruling); cited priors unreadable as support. 4.02f priors unreadable - defaults KEYED.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "CISA adds CVE-2026-63520, the Microsoft SharePoint Business Connectivity Services remote code execution flaw that completes the chain with CVE-2026-55040, to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 45, "resolution": "The CISA KEV JSON feed contains an entry for CVE-2026-63520 whose dateAdded value falls between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-30 inclusive; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 18 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV catalog carries no entry for CVE-2026-63520, or the entry has a dateAdded outside 2026-08-27 through 2026-09-30.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-01", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:26:49.304902+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d5119237b27fcc93e44eb424bf3de9cc2d041faec75854074dbfe360d216cfd4" }, { "statement": "Boston Scientific files a Form 8-K or 8-K/A with the SEC that includes Item 1.05, Material Cybersecurity Incidents, for the August 2026 cyberattack between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-30, following its initial Item 8.01 disclosure.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "EDGAR filings for CIK 885725 show a Form 8-K or 8-K/A with filing date 2026-08-27 through 2026-10-30 whose listed items include 1.05; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 17, 61 ], "failure_condition": "No Boston Scientific 8-K or 8-K/A filed 2026-08-27 through 2026-10-30 lists Item 1.05.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-02", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:26:49.304930+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1f92ce3f1f66711d646b9386ccadbc2afd2cbd29be0a93279606066e3173c7ce" }, { "statement": "Xi Jinping holds an in-person meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi on Egyptian territory between 2026-08-30 and 2026-09-04, as part of the state visit announced by the Chinese Foreign Ministry.", "domain": "political", "probability": 90, "resolution": "Both Xinhua or the Chinese Foreign Ministry and the Egyptian Presidency report an in-person Xi-Sisi meeting held on Egyptian territory between 2026-08-30 and 2026-09-04; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-09-08", "citations": [ 131 ], "failure_condition": "Xi does not meet Sisi in person on Egyptian territory between 2026-08-30 and 2026-09-04, whether the trip is cancelled, postponed, or the Egypt leg is dropped.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-03", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:26:49.304943+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6c82ac01f01dc2d0bdcf33d172ff7ba4fb736dc1633d45fabe615bf38a3de460", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [131] carry the claim's operative terms (egyptian, visit); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "United States and Iranian officials at the level of secretary of state, foreign minister, or presidential special envoy meet face to face for a negotiating session between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-30, and both governments acknowledge the meeting.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 25, "resolution": "Both the US State Department or White House and the Iranian Foreign Ministry publicly confirm a face to face US-Iran session at that level held between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-30; mediated exchanges through third parties do not count.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 86, 73, 101 ], "failure_condition": "No face to face US-Iran session at secretary of state, foreign minister, or special envoy level takes place between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-30, or only one government acknowledges it.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-04", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:26:49.304953+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f2fac27667ee55cb00a9c27632aa5b259dc2dae2300a28218e11f5de5a3968cf" }, { "statement": "A CVE tied to the Microsoft SharePoint remote code execution exploit chain reported under active targeting on 2026-08-26 will be added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-17.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 40, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog lists a Microsoft SharePoint CVE with dateAdded between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-17, checked at the deadline.", "deadline": "2026-09-19", "citations": [ 18 ], "failure_condition": "No SharePoint-related CVE carries a dateAdded value in the 2026-08-27 to 2026-09-17 window in the CISA KEV catalog as of the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-05", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:26:50.580242+00:00", "seal_sha256": "50950859815e62fc49214d87c906ee15454082b5fd2d883dad8dec920e3924c2", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [18] carry the claim's operative terms (chain, exploit, exploited, microsoft, sharepoint, targeting); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Norway's National Security Authority or Police Security Service will publicly name a specific threat actor, group, or state as responsible for the 2026-08-25 DDoS attack on Norwegian government digital services, in a statement dated between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-24.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 18, "resolution": "NSM, PST, or the Norwegian government issues a statement naming a specific actor for the Aug 25 DDoS attack, dated between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-24, per at least one national or wire outlet.", "deadline": "2026-09-26", "citations": [ 39 ], "failure_condition": "No Norwegian government body names a specific actor for the Aug 25 DDoS attack by the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-06", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:26:50.580264+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ec45f7d0a3bf7001d9eaaa5924c3ff73bc5c38f7b87d4799236ec2f919bcb87c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited priors ground the 25 Aug DDoS attack on Norwegian government services; a public attribution to a named actor is stated in no cited record. KEYED under the attribution doctrine (2026-08-04): attribution governs over strict deduction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "The United States will announce a new or expanded tariff action targeting Canadian goods, explicitly framed as a response to Canada's 2026-08-25 announcement of retaliatory tariffs on about 20 billion dollars of US goods, between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-08.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 38, "resolution": "The White House, USTR, or Commerce Department announces new or increased tariffs on Canada linked to the Aug 25 Canadian tariffs, dated between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-08, per at least two wire or business outlets.", "deadline": "2026-10-10", "citations": [ 79 ], "failure_condition": "The US announces no new or expanded tariff action targeting Canada linked to the Aug 25 Canadian tariffs by the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-07", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:26:50.580274+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ae7cc242b51c2ed706758ba1984ea42b32f7207d1fdf1ff70d4cb2cfd1e3a321" }, { "statement": "The Kremlin or the White House will confirm a direct, in-person meeting between the CIA Director and Vladimir Putin, following the CIA Director's Russia visit reported 2026-08-26 in which the Kremlin said meetings involved Russian intelligence officials but not Putin, between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 15, "resolution": "Peskov, the Kremlin press service, or the White House confirms a direct CIA Director-Putin meeting, dated between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-30, per at least two of Reuters, AP, TASS, or Al Jazeera.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 110, 119 ], "failure_condition": "No confirmed direct CIA Director-Putin meeting is on record by the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-08", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:26:50.580284+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ec679cec1a4eaf2bfd32a86d6d79cea18263d4646b9d1a5867e1985e83cc5d70" }, { "statement": "Kemi Badenoch will cease to hold the position of Leader of the Conservative Party, whether by resignation, removal, or the result of a confidence vote, between 2026-08-27 and 2026-12-18.", "domain": "political", "probability": 22, "resolution": "BBC, Reuters, the Guardian, or the Conservative Party confirms Kemi Badenoch is no longer party leader, with the change dated between 2026-08-27 and 2026-12-18.", "deadline": "2026-12-20", "citations": [ 108, 112 ], "failure_condition": "Kemi Badenoch remains Leader of the Conservative Party through the deadline, or any change falls outside the stated window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-09", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:26:50.580293+00:00", "seal_sha256": "87c49083f3ecabc714489cfe575355b785a84a11240fdc0a9c1d7e919a97c74d" }, { "statement": "A verdict of guilty or not guilty will be delivered in the Malta criminal trial of Yorgen Fenech for the murder of journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia, between 2026-08-27 and 2027-01-15.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 15, "resolution": "Malta court records or a report from Reuters, AP, Times of Malta, or the Guardian confirm a verdict in the Fenech trial, dated between 2026-08-27 and 2027-01-15.", "deadline": "2027-01-17", "citations": [ 14 ], "failure_condition": "No verdict is delivered in the Fenech trial by the deadline; adjournment or continued proceedings without a final verdict does not count.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-10", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:26:50.580300+00:00", "seal_sha256": "97c9f3c126a4da7b4533c1534a584bea683e3708961bb42c630ecc72877656f9" }, { "statement": "The confirmed death toll from the Nepal-Tibet border flash floods and avalanche first reported 2026-08-26 will reach at least 50, as stated by Nepal's Ministry of Home Affairs or a wire service, between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-20.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 52, "resolution": "Nepal's Ministry of Home Affairs or a report from at least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, or Al Jazeera states a confirmed death toll of 50 or more, dated between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-20.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 24, 98, 120 ], "failure_condition": "The highest confirmed death toll on record by the deadline remains below 50.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-11", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:26:50.580307+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fa69512b89f40a747506e06657033606be87fc0b293d23dcb013b606509695f3", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited priors carry the Nepal-Tibet border flood itself; the toll threshold is not stated. Event-toll row - KEYED under attribution (standing family ruling).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "The United States and Iran will hold a formal, publicly confirmed round of nuclear talks, direct or via an intermediary, following the 2026-08-26 report that Trump said he was not in a hurry for Iran to return to talks, between 2026-09-05 and 2026-11-15.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 28, "resolution": "The US State Department, Iranian Foreign Ministry, or Omani government confirms a formal round of US-Iran nuclear talks occurred, dated between 2026-09-05 and 2026-11-15, per at least two of Al Jazeera, Reuters, or AP.", "deadline": "2026-11-17", "citations": [ 86, 101 ], "failure_condition": "No formal, confirmed round of US-Iran nuclear talks is on record within the stated window by the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-12", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:26:50.580314+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e4c6a5ee38973d4c4d17d3ba3786c400ac6aaece42dc709585169ca7fd721b62" }, { "statement": "A temporary joint Iran-Oman maritime corridor through the Strait of Hormuz becomes operational, carrying at least one vessel transit between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 32, "resolution": "The Oman News Agency or the Omani foreign ministry, and the Iranian foreign ministry, both state the corridor is in operation with at least one transit completed before 2026-11-01.", "deadline": "2026-11-06", "citations": [ 101, 73, 86 ], "failure_condition": "No vessel transits a jointly administered Iran-Oman corridor under an operative agreement on or before 2026-10-31.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-13", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:26:53.166683+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9c15e2c32acb1e0ce62b7d61847c4ba8153df4da30db711291fa2fd790be3dec" }, { "statement": "United States and Iranian officials hold a direct negotiating session, in person or by video link, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 35, "resolution": "The State Department or White House and the Iranian foreign ministry each confirm a direct session inside the window. Relay through Omani or Qatari mediators alone does not count.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 86, 73 ], "failure_condition": "All US-Iran contact in the window runs through third-party mediators, with no direct session between the two governments.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-14", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:26:53.166705+00:00", "seal_sha256": "cacd1df4879a666747fc17a2b6382bbb3601efe390418af59e7e1dd80c5258dd" }, { "statement": "OFAC designates at least one foreign-registered company or non-Iranian-flagged vessel for facilitating Iranian oil sales, in an action dated between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "political", "probability": 82, "resolution": "The OFAC Recent Actions page or an SDN list update dated inside the window adds at least one foreign-registered entity or non-Iranian-flagged vessel under an Iran-related program tag.", "deadline": "2026-11-06", "citations": [ 73, 86 ], "failure_condition": "Every Iran-related OFAC designation dated inside the window names only Iran-based persons, entities, or Iranian-flagged vessels.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-15", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:26:53.166715+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b7457a43c7da913bce9ff68bb1c95335e4c5a0d32e5999f7226427d446763acd" }, { "statement": "CISA catalogues a Microsoft SharePoint vulnerability as actively exploited, with a KEV date-added value between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 45, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog JSON holds an entry with vendorProject Microsoft, a product string naming SharePoint, and a dateAdded value between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-31.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 18, 26 ], "failure_condition": "No SharePoint entry in the KEV catalog carries a dateAdded value inside that range.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-16", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:26:53.166724+00:00", "seal_sha256": "900712755db028b8316be36a24b53ff0b2cd4ea7b19ba33afe3ad147bee16a04" }, { "statement": "A named extortion group publicly claims the Boston Scientific intrusion by listing the company on a leak site between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 40, "resolution": "At least two of BleepingComputer, Cybersecurity Dive, Reuters, and The Record report a named group listing Boston Scientific on an extortion leak site inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-20", "citations": [ 17, 61 ], "failure_condition": "No named extortion group lists Boston Scientific on a leak site on or before 2026-10-15.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-17", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:26:53.166733+00:00", "seal_sha256": "bab8647558097754f0acf6a3ca5dd38b73b492723a47fb792f67c8008cd8a56e" }, { "statement": "The Bureau of Industry and Security adds a party to the Entity List over diversion of advanced computing items or AI servers to China, published in the Federal Register between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 38, "resolution": "A Federal Register rule published inside the window adds at least one party to the Entity List with a justification resting on diversion of advanced computing items or AI servers to China.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 15 ], "failure_condition": "No Entity List addition published inside the window rests on diversion of advanced computing or AI server items to China.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-18", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:26:53.166740+00:00", "seal_sha256": "346d875dc8b37851a8fa91be28ab9dc4d9fb9edb7d8510f0377d9cd1ebcc6897" }, { "statement": "The confirmed death toll in Nepal from the 2026-08-26 Bhotekoshi and Trishuli flooding reaches 300 or more, stated by a Nepali government body between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-12.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 45, "resolution": "The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority, the Home Ministry, or the Office of the Prime Minister of Nepal states a confirmed dead count of 300 or more for this event inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-15", "citations": [ 24, 98, 120 ], "failure_condition": "The Nepali confirmed dead count for this event stays below 300 through 2026-10-12, with the balance still carried as missing.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-19", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:26:53.166747+00:00", "seal_sha256": "eb80bfa128554960fdacf8fe5d81c259b97f38515c4a8dad74ca37cda92c4316" }, { "statement": "UKMTO publishes at least one incident advisory reporting a merchant vessel struck or damaged by a projectile, mine, or uncrewed system within 100 nautical miles of the Strait of Hormuz, anchor 26.5N 56.3E, between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-25.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 75, "resolution": "A UKMTO advisory at ukmto.org dated 2026-08-27 through 2026-09-25 reports a vessel struck or damaged by a projectile, mine, or uncrewed system at a position within 100 nm of 26.5N 56.3E; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 101, 73 ], "failure_condition": "No merchant vessel is struck or damaged by a projectile, mine, or uncrewed system within 100 nm of 26.5N 56.3E between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-25.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-20", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:27:17.826970+00:00", "seal_sha256": "636a8cafe78d33107c68c09144930856eac83a9b0dcc80d15aadcefccf9cd82a" }, { "statement": "The confirmed death toll in Nepal from the 26 August 2026 Bhotekoshi-Trishuli avalanche flash flood reaches at least 250 by 2026-09-16, as published by Nepal Police, the Office of the Prime Minister of Nepal, or the NDRRMA.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 55, "resolution": "By 2026-09-16 a figure of at least 250 confirmed dead in Nepal, excluding missing persons and excluding deaths in China, is published by Nepal Police, the Office of the Prime Minister, or the NDRRMA BIPAD portal.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 24, 98, 120 ], "failure_condition": "The highest confirmed Nepal death count published by those Nepali authorities by 2026-09-16 is below 250.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-21", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:27:17.826993+00:00", "seal_sha256": "96767e25b1c87784da922e786fe6740edd6668f12be1c469777e6b7e8636640a", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited priors carry the Bhotekoshi-Trishuli avalanche flood itself; the toll threshold is not stated. Event-toll row - KEYED under attribution (standing family ruling).", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "The FOMC raises the federal funds target range at its scheduled meeting on 2026-09-16, moving it above the 3.50 to 3.75 percent range held since 2026-07-29.", "domain": "economics", "probability": 30, "resolution": "FRED series DFEDTARU shows an upper limit above 3.75 percent effective 2026-09-17, matching the FOMC policy statement released 2026-09-16.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 76, 77, 82 ], "failure_condition": "The upper limit of the target range stands at 3.75 percent or lower after the 2026-09-16 decision.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-22", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:27:19.741909+00:00", "seal_sha256": "89c9b1961478d1a5bf1076a84780e52d82e1b17fe119f437bd9b473bd9a1d6e5", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited priors ground the Fed/inflation context (PCE, Jackson Hole, mortgage rates); a September hike is stated in no cited record. KEYED under the attribution doctrine (2026-08-04): attribution governs over strict deduction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "CISA adds CVE-2026-63520, the Microsoft SharePoint Business Connectivity Services remote code execution flaw that completes the chain with CVE-2026-55040, to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 23, "resolution": "The CISA KEV JSON feed contains an entry for CVE-2026-63520 whose dateAdded value falls between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-30 inclusive; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 18 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV catalog carries no entry for CVE-2026-63520, or the entry has a dateAdded outside 2026-08-27 through 2026-09-30.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2308, "n": 13, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:19Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260827-01" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-23", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:27:26.268665+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b553ae233fd25c7a2057ccedf638600b507ba4918f04dd55660d8a63c37930ff" }, { "statement": "Boston Scientific files a Form 8-K or 8-K/A with the SEC that includes Item 1.05, Material Cybersecurity Incidents, for the August 2026 cyberattack between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-30, following its initial Item 8.01 disclosure.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 23, "resolution": "EDGAR filings for CIK 885725 show a Form 8-K or 8-K/A with filing date 2026-08-27 through 2026-10-30 whose listed items include 1.05; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 17, 61 ], "failure_condition": "No Boston Scientific 8-K or 8-K/A filed 2026-08-27 through 2026-10-30 lists Item 1.05.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2308, "n": 13, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:19Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260827-02" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-24", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:27:26.268686+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4240bfbdafd72512a9960074b56263cf591388baa9828cd08a042f396d929ece" }, { "statement": "Xi Jinping holds an in-person meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi on Egyptian territory between 2026-08-30 and 2026-09-04, as part of the state visit announced by the Chinese Foreign Ministry.", "domain": "political", "probability": 29, "resolution": "Both Xinhua or the Chinese Foreign Ministry and the Egyptian Presidency report an in-person Xi-Sisi meeting held on Egyptian territory between 2026-08-30 and 2026-09-04; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-09-08", "citations": [ 131 ], "failure_condition": "Xi does not meet Sisi in person on Egyptian territory between 2026-08-30 and 2026-09-04, whether the trip is cancelled, postponed, or the Egypt leg is dropped.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2857, "n": 21, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:19Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260827-03" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-25", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:27:26.268703+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7455b826664ef6740bf731cc309931a6a6012f5d6d870bd659050bb2928e318f", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "United States and Iranian officials at the level of secretary of state, foreign minister, or presidential special envoy meet face to face for a negotiating session between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-30, and both governments acknowledge the meeting.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "Both the US State Department or White House and the Iranian Foreign Ministry publicly confirm a face to face US-Iran session at that level held between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-30; mediated exchanges through third parties do not count.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 86, 73, 101 ], "failure_condition": "No face to face US-Iran session at secretary of state, foreign minister, or special envoy level takes place between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-30, or only one government acknowledges it.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:19Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260827-04" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-26", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:27:26.268713+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0b93efda2ea884287d6d5b55fe2368bbe95cb0c237c98a450ff6c10c182a9477" }, { "statement": "UKMTO publishes at least one incident advisory reporting a merchant vessel struck or damaged by a projectile, mine, or uncrewed system within 100 nautical miles of the Strait of Hormuz, anchor 26.5N 56.3E, between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-25.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "A UKMTO advisory at ukmto.org dated 2026-08-27 through 2026-09-25 reports a vessel struck or damaged by a projectile, mine, or uncrewed system at a position within 100 nm of 26.5N 56.3E; otherwise false.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 101, 73 ], "failure_condition": "No merchant vessel is struck or damaged by a projectile, mine, or uncrewed system within 100 nm of 26.5N 56.3E between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-25.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:19Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260827-20" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-27", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:27:26.268722+00:00", "seal_sha256": "76b41aa23d97eaccaaa7eae3054c19202e8f408e04485d0bc7e8addf5bd1e849" }, { "statement": "The confirmed death toll in Nepal from the 26 August 2026 Bhotekoshi-Trishuli avalanche flash flood reaches at least 250 by 2026-09-16, as published by Nepal Police, the Office of the Prime Minister of Nepal, or the NDRRMA.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 33, "resolution": "By 2026-09-16 a figure of at least 250 confirmed dead in Nepal, excluding missing persons and excluding deaths in China, is published by Nepal Police, the Office of the Prime Minister, or the NDRRMA BIPAD portal.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 24, 98, 120 ], "failure_condition": "The highest confirmed Nepal death count published by those Nepali authorities by 2026-09-16 is below 250.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:19Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260827-21" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-28", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:27:26.268730+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6c5e189616fec6e8fd7500200d8efe6abf26ce44ba5f8e104436d87a15b97c5d", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A temporary joint Iran-Oman maritime corridor through the Strait of Hormuz becomes operational, carrying at least one vessel transit between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "The Oman News Agency or the Omani foreign ministry, and the Iranian foreign ministry, both state the corridor is in operation with at least one transit completed before 2026-11-01.", "deadline": "2026-11-06", "citations": [ 101, 73, 86 ], "failure_condition": "No vessel transits a jointly administered Iran-Oman corridor under an operative agreement on or before 2026-10-31.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:19Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260827-13" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-29", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:27:27.067437+00:00", "seal_sha256": "aea0ef291b33e21fea489e37e1c783fa0ab0b7e9942065e2b6934fce81660f31" }, { "statement": "United States and Iranian officials hold a direct negotiating session, in person or by video link, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "The State Department or White House and the Iranian foreign ministry each confirm a direct session inside the window. Relay through Omani or Qatari mediators alone does not count.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 86, 73 ], "failure_condition": "All US-Iran contact in the window runs through third-party mediators, with no direct session between the two governments.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:19Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260827-14" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-30", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:27:27.067456+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3e82ef136302fb7018750053f6dcae3e1c2afeded95792b3fb21dd15eaed8361" }, { "statement": "OFAC designates at least one foreign-registered company or non-Iranian-flagged vessel for facilitating Iranian oil sales, in an action dated between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "political", "probability": 29, "resolution": "The OFAC Recent Actions page or an SDN list update dated inside the window adds at least one foreign-registered entity or non-Iranian-flagged vessel under an Iran-related program tag.", "deadline": "2026-11-06", "citations": [ 73, 86 ], "failure_condition": "Every Iran-related OFAC designation dated inside the window names only Iran-based persons, entities, or Iranian-flagged vessels.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2857, "n": 21, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:19Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260827-15" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-31", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:27:27.067466+00:00", "seal_sha256": "947b37f5d416f0672fe189afe71f711f8ed8248a2225360d8b16b253f1218102" }, { "statement": "CISA catalogues a Microsoft SharePoint vulnerability as actively exploited, with a KEV date-added value between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 23, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog JSON holds an entry with vendorProject Microsoft, a product string naming SharePoint, and a dateAdded value between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-31.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 18, 26 ], "failure_condition": "No SharePoint entry in the KEV catalog carries a dateAdded value inside that range.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2308, "n": 13, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:19Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260827-16" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-32", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:27:27.067474+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9dd81b9b5c600a9e59e409157bf399e9464564f5979498f70d2f496d505928b2" }, { "statement": "A named extortion group publicly claims the Boston Scientific intrusion by listing the company on a leak site between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 23, "resolution": "At least two of BleepingComputer, Cybersecurity Dive, Reuters, and The Record report a named group listing Boston Scientific on an extortion leak site inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-20", "citations": [ 17, 61 ], "failure_condition": "No named extortion group lists Boston Scientific on a leak site on or before 2026-10-15.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2308, "n": 13, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:19Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260827-17" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-33", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:27:27.067481+00:00", "seal_sha256": "55c15b9b24e5c564c25e412e235584edd4beffc6de74d0003710220055b7c581" }, { "statement": "The Bureau of Industry and Security adds a party to the Entity List over diversion of advanced computing items or AI servers to China, published in the Federal Register between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 31, "resolution": "A Federal Register rule published inside the window adds at least one party to the Entity List with a justification resting on diversion of advanced computing items or AI servers to China.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 15 ], "failure_condition": "No Entity List addition published inside the window rests on diversion of advanced computing or AI server items to China.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3117, "n": 77, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:19Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260827-18" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-34", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:27:27.067487+00:00", "seal_sha256": "815c4a2a57edb3df79de249df31ad62c496881d0dea69c1c4e145bcd80d9d79a" }, { "statement": "The confirmed death toll in Nepal from the 2026-08-26 Bhotekoshi and Trishuli flooding reaches 300 or more, stated by a Nepali government body between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-12.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 33, "resolution": "The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority, the Home Ministry, or the Office of the Prime Minister of Nepal states a confirmed dead count of 300 or more for this event inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-15", "citations": [ 24, 98, 120 ], "failure_condition": "The Nepali confirmed dead count for this event stays below 300 through 2026-10-12, with the balance still carried as missing.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:19Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260827-19" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-35", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:27:27.067493+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5187d044552e5990647e9f2fc53579d18fb569bc6d3a921d32bf1960c3669b17" }, { "statement": "The FOMC raises the federal funds target range at its scheduled meeting on 2026-09-16, moving it above the 3.50 to 3.75 percent range held since 2026-07-29.", "domain": "economics", "probability": 25, "resolution": "FRED series DFEDTARU shows an upper limit above 3.75 percent effective 2026-09-17, matching the FOMC policy statement released 2026-09-16.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 76, 77, 82 ], "failure_condition": "The upper limit of the target range stands at 3.75 percent or lower after the 2026-09-16 decision.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 16, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:19Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260827-22" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-36", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:27:27.067500+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f8946f1d6db454b34406e8fdb9cb4c1f5e3ef3d364b242f17f48b42e4ed2fe43", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "A CVE tied to the Microsoft SharePoint remote code execution exploit chain reported under active targeting on 2026-08-26 will be added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-17.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 23, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog lists a Microsoft SharePoint CVE with dateAdded between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-17, checked at the deadline.", "deadline": "2026-09-19", "citations": [ 18 ], "failure_condition": "No SharePoint-related CVE carries a dateAdded value in the 2026-08-27 to 2026-09-17 window in the CISA KEV catalog as of the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2308, "n": 13, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:19Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260827-05" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-37", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:27:30.347046+00:00", "seal_sha256": "64e11d41f352b1eeaa460c6f6f4efdac96030d4b977c70cb3c99ef88cf5cd9c0", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Norway's National Security Authority or Police Security Service will publicly name a specific threat actor, group, or state as responsible for the 2026-08-25 DDoS attack on Norwegian government digital services, in a statement dated between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-24.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 23, "resolution": "NSM, PST, or the Norwegian government issues a statement naming a specific actor for the Aug 25 DDoS attack, dated between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-24, per at least one national or wire outlet.", "deadline": "2026-09-26", "citations": [ 39 ], "failure_condition": "No Norwegian government body names a specific actor for the Aug 25 DDoS attack by the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2308, "n": 13, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:19Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260827-06" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-38", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:27:30.347068+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2eb714fece252a7ba2e070083e64f02c07af4214ef4536de8a125b013ced4a97", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "The United States will announce a new or expanded tariff action targeting Canadian goods, explicitly framed as a response to Canada's 2026-08-25 announcement of retaliatory tariffs on about 20 billion dollars of US goods, between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-08.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The White House, USTR, or Commerce Department announces new or increased tariffs on Canada linked to the Aug 25 Canadian tariffs, dated between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-08, per at least two wire or business outlets.", "deadline": "2026-10-10", "citations": [ 79 ], "failure_condition": "The US announces no new or expanded tariff action targeting Canada linked to the Aug 25 Canadian tariffs by the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 16, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:19Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260827-07" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-39", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:27:30.347080+00:00", "seal_sha256": "938e5d1450ec1fa847dc217132003e7e879d3fe12b78a72a72f15d806b5e62f6" }, { "statement": "The Kremlin or the White House will confirm a direct, in-person meeting between the CIA Director and Vladimir Putin, following the CIA Director's Russia visit reported 2026-08-26 in which the Kremlin said meetings involved Russian intelligence officials but not Putin, between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 29, "resolution": "Peskov, the Kremlin press service, or the White House confirms a direct CIA Director-Putin meeting, dated between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-30, per at least two of Reuters, AP, TASS, or Al Jazeera.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 110, 119 ], "failure_condition": "No confirmed direct CIA Director-Putin meeting is on record by the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2857, "n": 21, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:19Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260827-08" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-40", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:27:30.347090+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b699cf4935c8c3a9618e94d95253ef8097b52beb893ab23c1104d815788e608a" }, { "statement": "Kemi Badenoch will cease to hold the position of Leader of the Conservative Party, whether by resignation, removal, or the result of a confidence vote, between 2026-08-27 and 2026-12-18.", "domain": "political", "probability": 29, "resolution": "BBC, Reuters, the Guardian, or the Conservative Party confirms Kemi Badenoch is no longer party leader, with the change dated between 2026-08-27 and 2026-12-18.", "deadline": "2026-12-20", "citations": [ 108, 112 ], "failure_condition": "Kemi Badenoch remains Leader of the Conservative Party through the deadline, or any change falls outside the stated window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2857, "n": 21, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:19Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260827-09" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-41", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:27:30.347100+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8e4ed81f7eeb8316066added908057927da8d15d326dcb95b4b874c038280e67" }, { "statement": "A verdict of guilty or not guilty will be delivered in the Malta criminal trial of Yorgen Fenech for the murder of journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia, between 2026-08-27 and 2027-01-15.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 31, "resolution": "Malta court records or a report from Reuters, AP, Times of Malta, or the Guardian confirm a verdict in the Fenech trial, dated between 2026-08-27 and 2027-01-15.", "deadline": "2027-01-17", "citations": [ 14 ], "failure_condition": "No verdict is delivered in the Fenech trial by the deadline; adjournment or continued proceedings without a final verdict does not count.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3117, "n": 77, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:19Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260827-10" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-42", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:27:30.347108+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4f819238d029e79c4aaac9750fc5c4a5531530318b72ee215886ea6db603bda6" }, { "statement": "The confirmed death toll from the Nepal-Tibet border flash floods and avalanche first reported 2026-08-26 will reach at least 50, as stated by Nepal's Ministry of Home Affairs or a wire service, between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-20.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 33, "resolution": "Nepal's Ministry of Home Affairs or a report from at least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, or Al Jazeera states a confirmed death toll of 50 or more, dated between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-20.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 24, 98, 120 ], "failure_condition": "The highest confirmed death toll on record by the deadline remains below 50.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:19Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260827-11" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-43", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:27:30.347116+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7db080ec2d792c8de6c65850062d12c85c5b188a9dd462d00d26456fe9b50f56", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "The United States and Iran will hold a formal, publicly confirmed round of nuclear talks, direct or via an intermediary, following the 2026-08-26 report that Trump said he was not in a hurry for Iran to return to talks, between 2026-09-05 and 2026-11-15.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "The US State Department, Iranian Foreign Ministry, or Omani government confirms a formal round of US-Iran nuclear talks occurred, dated between 2026-09-05 and 2026-11-15, per at least two of Al Jazeera, Reuters, or AP.", "deadline": "2026-11-17", "citations": [ 86, 101 ], "failure_condition": "No formal, confirmed round of US-Iran nuclear talks is on record within the stated window by the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:19Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260827-12" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-26_1538.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-44", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-26_1538.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:27:30.347123+00:00", "seal_sha256": "410d0f2b38e66d520cf5629aa5364c24d651f33a7e0efe138e1eb31112a8178b" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-26 and 2026-11-30, a Russian presidential decree ordering a new general or partial mobilization of citizens into the armed forces is published on the official legal portal publication.pravo.gov.ru.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "TRUE if publication.pravo.gov.ru carries a presidential decree dated 2026-08-26 through 2026-11-30 ordering general or partial mobilization of citizens; routine conscription-campaign and reservist training-assembly decrees do not count.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 99 ], "failure_condition": "No presidential decree ordering general or partial mobilization of citizens, with a date inside the window, appears on the official legal portal.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:30Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260825-08" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-45", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:28:46.625514+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5a892cadf19efea3075626bd0a530a36587d2a6cc83c3df44bc36419e3b15fb8" }, { "statement": "Nvidia (NVDA) official Nasdaq closing price on 2026-08-27, the session after its scheduled 2026-08-26 after-close earnings release, is more than 5.0 percent above or below its 2026-08-26 official close.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if the Nasdaq official closing price of NVDA on 2026-08-27 differs from the 2026-08-26 official close by more than 5.0 percent in either direction; a move of exactly 5.0 percent or less is FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-01", "citations": [ 59, 61 ], "failure_condition": "The NVDA official close on 2026-08-27 is within 5.0 percent of the official close on 2026-08-26.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 16, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:30Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260825-09" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-46", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "hit", "resolved_date": "2026-09-02", "notes": "[jury] Duplicate of KKR-20260825-09: NVDA moved 8.7 percent on 08-27 per CNBC, above the 5.0 percent trigger.", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:28:46.625538+00:00", "seal_sha256": "83b9fd473b7ede734415098b3e83621e50e51c2e6c55be836847f4eda00801f5", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27", "audit": { "mode": "blind-jury", "auditors": [ "claude", "qwen" ], "prompt_sha256": "d5b4fff5dfc1e0dddded2267997363f0c11a462e55ccb7f70f1c6516a4cebfdd", "concordant": false, "basis": "claude", "verdicts": { "claude": "HIT", "qwen": "ABSTAIN" }, "evidence": "Duplicate of KKR-20260825-09: NVDA moved 8.7 percent on 08-27 per CNBC, above the 5.0 percent trigger." } }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-26 and 2026-10-31, CISA adds to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog at least one Zimbra Collaboration vulnerability other than CVE-2026-73570.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 23, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog JSON contains an entry whose vendorProject or product field includes Zimbra, with a dateAdded value 2026-08-26 through 2026-10-31, and a cveID other than CVE-2026-73570.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 21 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV catalog contains no Zimbra entry other than CVE-2026-73570 with a dateAdded value inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2308, "n": 13, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:30Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260825-11" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-47", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:28:46.625549+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a768262e06d1a6ede3e374d77db40ca44c5794e6e0683de7a104c97a65369455" }, { "statement": "On at least one day between 2026-08-26 and 2026-10-15, the Singapore National Environment Agency 24-hour PSI for at least one of the five reporting regions reaches 101 or higher.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if NEA published 24-hour PSI data (data.gov.sg historical PSI or NEA haze page) shows a value of 101 or higher for any region on any day 2026-08-26 through 2026-10-15.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 41 ], "failure_condition": "Every NEA 24-hour regional PSI reading for every day in the window is 100 or below.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:30Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260825-12" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-48", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:28:46.625559+00:00", "seal_sha256": "67be1d071497fcef7a1a29552562cd7a0789d3bc19e822c744c34407ae99112e" }, { "statement": "The LBMA Gold Price PM auction fixes at or above 5000.00 dollars per troy ounce on at least one business day between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if any LBMA Gold Price PM fix dated between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30 is 5000.00 dollars or higher in the published LBMA price record.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 69, 71 ], "failure_condition": "Every LBMA PM gold fix inside that window settles below 5000.00 dollars.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 16, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:30Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260825-18" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-49", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:28:47.435338+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0b4a4048d62eb8d8a5892a49032b54b8105a96a133390957c2b4474b43cef958" }, { "statement": "The US Federal Register publishes a presidential document imposing or raising tariffs on Canadian-origin goods, with a publication date between 2026-08-26 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if federalregister.gov returns a presidential document published inside that window whose operative text imposes or increases duties on goods of Canada.", "deadline": "2026-12-03", "citations": [ 57 ], "failure_condition": "No presidential document published inside that window imposes or raises duties on Canadian goods.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 16, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:30Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260825-19" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-50", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:28:47.435360+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2303e694de73302052f7916f7c9c9d309e543b7c8c887b333be911b7433d3e55" }, { "statement": "OFAC adds at least one entity with a listed address in mainland China or Hong Kong to the SDN list under an Iran-related program between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 29, "resolution": "TRUE if an OFAC action inside that window designates an entity addressed in China or Hong Kong carrying an Iran-related program tag such as IRAN, IFSR, or IRGC.", "deadline": "2026-12-03", "citations": [ 115, 127, 128 ], "failure_condition": "No OFAC Iran-program designation inside that window lists a China or Hong Kong address.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2857, "n": 21, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:30Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260825-20" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-51", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:28:47.435371+00:00", "seal_sha256": "950aa0e58c5a88fa9ccd4b7a3e22bb3fd1f3f71a4055e4bbf3188a3415121de4" }, { "statement": "A Russian presidential decree ordering a new partial or general mobilization is published on pravo.gov.ru with a signature date between 2026-09-01 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "TRUE if the official Russian legal portal pravo.gov.ru carries a presidential ukaz signed inside that window ordering mobilization of reservists beyond the standing conscription cycle.", "deadline": "2027-01-05", "citations": [ 99 ], "failure_condition": "No mobilization ukaz signed inside that window appears on the official legal portal.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:30Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260825-21" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-52", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:28:47.435379+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ab33e31b2d6f6f21e59d4694d0434b638d2e0202722d953fee61f3d1d2532aef" }, { "statement": "At least four distinct Russian oil refineries are struck in drone attacks between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30, each acknowledged by a Russian regional governor, ministry, or federal agency.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "TRUE if four or more separately named Russian refineries are reported hit inside that window with acknowledgment from a Russian governor, ministry, or Rosaviatsia statement.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 40 ], "failure_condition": "Fewer than four distinct Russian refineries are acknowledged as struck inside that window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:30Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260825-22" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-53", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:28:47.435386+00:00", "seal_sha256": "74a9e01a468269f9002ea497d22798d08be6bc5de7a2178a1c5602df5922f5a9" }, { "statement": "The US District Court for the District of Columbia docket in the Lockerbie bombing prosecution carries an order setting a new trial date, entered between 2026-08-26 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 31, "resolution": "TRUE if a docket entry in that case, dated inside the window, fixes a specific new trial date, as shown on PACER or CourtListener.", "deadline": "2027-01-06", "citations": [ 98 ], "failure_condition": "No docket entry inside that window fixes a specific new trial date.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3117, "n": 77, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:30Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260825-23" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-54", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:28:47.435393+00:00", "seal_sha256": "615c04028a67c61e27f94dbc29a544b873366b2558f1172146279a6feb4881bc" }, { "statement": "The government of Iran submits or publicly announces formal withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "TRUE if Iran files a withdrawal notice under NPT Article X or a wire service (Reuters, AP, AFP) reports such an announcement, dated between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-30; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 115, 126, 130 ], "failure_condition": "No NPT withdrawal notice or wire-service-confirmed withdrawal announcement from Iran appears inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:30Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260825-13" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-55", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:28:48.231627+00:00", "seal_sha256": "880bdf26528eab38ec4be9b64dcbd9390b1ae78da589c08d74aa48d5e1ea8268" }, { "statement": "A New York state court issues any order or ruling, including on a preliminary motion, in the business-group lawsuit against the city-owned grocery store initiative, between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 29, "resolution": "TRUE if the case docket in the New York court e-filing system shows a judicial order or ruling entered between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-30 in this case; FALSE if no order is entered.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 109 ], "failure_condition": "The court docket shows no order or ruling entered in the case inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2857, "n": 21, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:30Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260825-14" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-56", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:28:48.231648+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f191c0a7dcfc8f7f5bd623cab64d463deb503fc49bb72dec509f06b9a5c8d689" }, { "statement": "A named law-enforcement agency (Europol, FBI, or a national police force) announces additional arrests connected to the global cybercrime crackdown, between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-08.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 31, "resolution": "TRUE if Europol, the FBI, or a national police agency issues a press release naming additional arrests tied to this operation, dated 2026-08-26 through 2026-09-08; FALSE if no such release appears.", "deadline": "2026-09-11", "citations": [ 11 ], "failure_condition": "No named law-enforcement agency issues a release announcing further arrests tied to this operation inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3117, "n": 77, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:30Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260825-15" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-57", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:28:48.231659+00:00", "seal_sha256": "71d41e728e3730c6e1ffd412fc4354e1b38b3bb362660d5cc22ddada07010be0", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "GDACS raises tropical cyclone JULIO-26 from Green to Orange or Red alert level before the system is marked dissipated, between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-08.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if the GDACS event page for JULIO-26 shows an Orange or Red alert level at any point between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-08; FALSE if it stays Green or is closed without upgrade.", "deadline": "2026-09-10", "citations": [ 55 ], "failure_condition": "The GDACS alert level for JULIO-26 never exceeds Green before the window closes or the system dissipates.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 12, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T04:27:30Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right.", "control_for": "KKR-20260825-16" }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-25_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-58", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-25_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T04:28:48.231667+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e5a5aabc3ea97c2a736a07835ee3bb3bef687acc51f452f6048e7b4cdd7b9369", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-08-27" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03, the USGS will record a magnitude 5.0 or higher earthquake in Japan with a depth of less than 30km.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The USGS Significant Quakes database will list a magnitude 5.0 or higher earthquake in Japan with a depth of less than 30km, occurring between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03.", "deadline": "2026-09-07", "citations": [ 55 ], "failure_condition": "No magnitude 5.0 or higher earthquake with a depth of less than 30km is recorded in Japan between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03 in the USGS Significant Quakes database.", "id": "KKR-20260827-59", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T15:19:45.790004+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d6fad0d067348b42e54cf48e9ccc76180fb2a310eb5b15dbee997cfb5b33d949", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [55] carry the claim's operative terms (depth, earthquake, japan, magnitude); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03, the S&P 500 will close above 7,800 points on at least one weekday.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 65, "resolution": "The S&P 500 will close above 7,800 points on at least one weekday between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03, as reported by a major financial data provider.", "deadline": "2026-09-07", "citations": [ 58 ], "failure_condition": "The S&P 500 never closes above 7,800 points on any weekday between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03.", "id": "KKR-20260827-60", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T15:19:45.790027+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3c54ee30fab82aa85495a66b616c601dee367bbae09876eb51ad48f9d3539d76", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "lmstudio lane: the local arm cites the packet by item position, so the record it read is the packet itself; KEYED under the standing family ruling of 2026-08-15 (its keyless count cannot grow). The mechanical grounding test found no shared vocabulary with the cited item - the positional habit, not a claim of a keyless prior. Assistant-proposed, operator-adopted at import 2026-09-07.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03, a confirmed military strike will occur in the Gaza City area, resulting in at least one reported casualty.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 35, "resolution": "A confirmed military strike in Gaza City, verified by two independent sources from hostile sides (IL and PS), results in at least one reported casualty.", "deadline": "2026-09-07", "citations": [ 3 ], "failure_condition": "No confirmed military strike in Gaza City results in at least one reported casualty, as verified by two independent sources from hostile sides.", "id": "KKR-20260827-61", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T15:19:45.790039+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6eead47162100266bdc40c311ba3fd510dc9fdb09a35b5a2c49270e0790ebf5e", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "lmstudio lane: the local arm cites the packet by item position, so the record it read is the packet itself; KEYED under the standing family ruling of 2026-08-15 (its keyless count cannot grow). The mechanical grounding test found no shared vocabulary with the cited item - the positional habit, not a claim of a keyless prior. Assistant-proposed, operator-adopted at import 2026-09-07.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03, a new political statement will be issued by Iran's foreign ministry regarding negotiations with the US, corroborated by both Axis and Western sources.", "domain": "political", "probability": 40, "resolution": "A statement issued by Iran's foreign ministry regarding negotiations with the US, corroborated by at least one source from the Axis and one from the Western side, will be published between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03.", "deadline": "2026-09-07", "citations": [ 2 ], "failure_condition": "No statement issued by Iran's foreign ministry regarding negotiations with the US is corroborated by both Axis and Western sources between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03.", "id": "KKR-20260827-62", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T15:19:45.790047+00:00", "seal_sha256": "29f6d329311f81e5486699ab71939c9c6cec3536cd6b1a27c85f8aaeb65cac21", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [2] carry the claim's operative terms (corroborated, regarding); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03, a confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2021-23758 will be reported by at least two independent sources.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 20, "resolution": "A confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2021-23758 will be reported by at least two independent sources, one from a Western outlet and one from an Axis-aligned outlet, between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03.", "deadline": "2026-09-07", "citations": [ 8 ], "failure_condition": "No confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2021-23758 is reported by two independent sources from hostile sides between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03.", "id": "KKR-20260827-63", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T15:19:45.790056+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1d0f35f44ca7001cbda50dc2de8822ebd927538cda4060ce069244c14b66979b", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "lmstudio lane: the local arm cites the packet by item position, so the record it read is the packet itself; KEYED under the standing family ruling of 2026-08-15 (its keyless count cannot grow). The mechanical grounding test found no shared vocabulary with the cited item - the positional habit, not a claim of a keyless prior. Assistant-proposed, operator-adopted at import 2026-09-07.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03, a confirmed forest fire will be reported in Canada with a size exceeding 10,000 hectares.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 30, "resolution": "A confirmed forest fire in Canada, reported by GDACS Alerts and verified by a second independent source, will have a size exceeding 10,000 hectares between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03.", "deadline": "2026-09-07", "citations": [ 33 ], "failure_condition": "No confirmed forest fire in Canada with a size exceeding 10,000 hectares is reported by GDACS Alerts and verified by a second independent source between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03.", "id": "KKR-20260827-64", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T15:19:45.790065+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3917dead80d5b9ee7ff066e8818681a2e5183d2f1939a11f02742f32acd1ba81", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [33] carry the claim's operative terms (alert, canada, fire, forest); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03, a confirmed political statement by Trump regarding Iran sanctions will be corroborated by both Western and Axis sources.", "domain": "political", "probability": 25, "resolution": "A political statement by Trump regarding Iran sanctions, published between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03, will be corroborated by at least one Western and one Axis-aligned source.", "deadline": "2026-09-07", "citations": [ 1 ], "failure_condition": "No political statement by Trump regarding Iran sanctions is corroborated by both Western and Axis sources between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03.", "id": "KKR-20260827-65", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T15:19:45.790073+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c530405590d4b515779acbc7b0ba2321e0f5e9eacff58ecfb0ba919dc5131404", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [1] carry the claim's operative terms (corroborated); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03, a confirmed military strike in Kyiv will result in at least one reported casualty.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 35, "resolution": "A confirmed military strike in Kyiv, verified by two independent sources from hostile sides (RU and UA), results in at least one reported casualty.", "deadline": "2026-09-07", "citations": [ 6 ], "failure_condition": "No confirmed military strike in Kyiv results in at least one reported casualty, as verified by two independent sources from hostile sides.", "id": "KKR-20260827-66", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T15:19:45.790081+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e25a68170a92f7313896be9d6934d482129b61e88865194c0e28aa6d67a152d1", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "lmstudio lane: the local arm cites the packet by item position, so the record it read is the packet itself; KEYED under the standing family ruling of 2026-08-15 (its keyless count cannot grow). The mechanical grounding test found no shared vocabulary with the cited item - the positional habit, not a claim of a keyless prior. Assistant-proposed, operator-adopted at import 2026-09-07.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "The FOMC raises the target range for the federal funds rate above 3.50-3.75 percent at its scheduled 2026-09-16 meeting.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 40, "resolution": "The FOMC statement dated 2026-09-16 on federalreserve.gov announces an increase in the target range; equivalently FRED series DFEDTARU shows a value above 3.75 on 2026-09-17.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 61 ], "failure_condition": "The 2026-09-16 FOMC statement leaves the target range at 3.50-3.75 percent or lowers it.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-67", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:31.588445+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a799562cfd5e513ad9f19848322844b80a2bc0b5053be6aecb2e9dfca6a13123" }, { "statement": "Nvidia or Hugging Face officially confirms a definitive agreement for Nvidia to acquire Hugging Face between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 55, "resolution": "A press release, SEC filing by NVIDIA Corp, or official company blog post dated between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-30 states that Nvidia has entered a definitive agreement to acquire Hugging Face.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 81, 62 ], "failure_condition": "Neither company has issued an official confirmation of a definitive acquisition agreement dated inside the window, or either company states the talks ended without agreement.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-68", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:31.588466+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1bc420e23f3a420f202d5e1bdf33bcb91a703f3c852a008e0077965214592ce5" }, { "statement": "At least one civil complaint naming Carhartt Inc as defendant over the 2026 customer data breach is filed in a US federal district court between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-02.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 85, "resolution": "PACER or CourtListener shows a complaint filed between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-02 in any US federal district court that names Carhartt Inc as defendant and alleges harm from the 2026 data breach of about 12.9 million accounts.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 22 ], "failure_condition": "No complaint against Carhartt Inc arising from the breach appears on any federal docket with a filing date inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-69", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:31.588478+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c45426373b707233c3aa5436d89eb90146470d698a0d3780883beb7af1eda17f" }, { "statement": "CISA adds a vulnerability in the Avada WordPress theme to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded between 2026-08-28 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog JSON contains an entry whose vendorProject, product, or vulnerabilityName field includes Avada, with dateAdded between 2026-08-28 and 2026-10-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 29 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry referencing Avada carries a dateAdded inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-70", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:31.588486+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2b2f6981a0fbd5a0efd8635beec7b304c0aab454242a09892cfd331a1f46677d" }, { "statement": "Official confirmed deaths from the 2026-08-26 Bhotekoshi-Trishuli flash flood, Nepal and Tibet combined, reach at least 1,000 by 2026-09-30.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 40, "resolution": "Reuters, AP, or AFP reports that official confirmed deaths from the 2026-08-26 flood, Nepal police or NDRRMA figures plus Chinese official figures for Gyirong county, total at least 1,000 as of a date no later than 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 35, 39, 48 ], "failure_condition": "Combined official confirmed deaths remain below 1,000 in every wire-service report dated on or before 2026-09-30; missing or presumed-dead counts do not count.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-71", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:31.588495+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d9d4cf008b52c1d6ced61c402cbccb24b0520704c5b0867e5161598f86b196b7" }, { "statement": "The Norwegian Royal House announces the death of King Harald V occurring between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-10.", "domain": "political", "probability": 70, "resolution": "An official statement from the Royal House of Norway (kongehuset.no) or NTB reports the death of King Harald V on a date between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-10 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-09-14", "citations": [ 102, 105 ], "failure_condition": "King Harald V is alive on 2026-09-10, or his death is dated after 2026-09-10.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-72", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:31.588502+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b6fb12ab1a422422ed3a87ad24d47fc261e98d9a3d1f63714ab33e018822bea6", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [102, 105] carry the claim's operative terms (harald, king, norway, royal); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "The United States and Iran both publicly confirm signing a final agreement ending the war that began on 2026-02-28, with the signing occurring between 2026-08-28 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 20, "resolution": "The White House or State Department and the Iranian Foreign Ministry or IRNA each confirm a signed final agreement ending the war, distinct from a ceasefire, memorandum, or framework, signed between 2026-08-28 and 2026-10-30.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 104, 109, 111 ], "failure_condition": "No accord described by both governments as a final or comprehensive war-ending agreement is signed inside the window; a ceasefire extension, interim MOU, or one-sided claim does not count.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-73", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:31.588509+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3009683f49fc2579db56ea24697821ad72aa70c6fe817d0070e9149a82d7a0c7" }, { "statement": "UKMTO publishes at least three separate incident reports of merchant vessels struck by a projectile, mine, or other weapon in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, or Persian Gulf between 2026-08-28 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 55, "resolution": "The UKMTO incidents page (ukmto.org) lists at least three distinct incident references dated 2026-08-28 to 2026-09-30, each stating a vessel was struck, hit, or impacted in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, or Persian Gulf.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 131, 104 ], "failure_condition": "Fewer than three distinct UKMTO incident reports dated inside the window describe a vessel actually struck; approaches, warnings, and boardings do not count.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-74", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:31.588518+00:00", "seal_sha256": "98705995a9d2c2d24f5046e511c65da1260e964973b9e4a580ef8934aaffbd0a" }, { "statement": "Spanish authorities (Guardia Civil or Policia Nacional) announce at least one arrest in the 2026-08-27 Villena Treasure theft between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 45, "resolution": "An official Guardia Civil or Policia Nacional communication, or Reuters, AP, AFP, or EFE citing such officials, reports at least one person arrested (detenido) for the Villena Museum theft, with the arrest dated between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-30.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 10, 11, 97 ], "failure_condition": "No arrest attributed to the Villena Museum theft is announced by Spanish authorities with an arrest date inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-75", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:31.588525+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9572966e338827b4180c9fe9062c41c01cff5e2bfeeb68af66f947fadc555132" }, { "statement": "The United States and Iran, directly or through the mediating states of Qatar, Oman, or Pakistan named in current shuttle diplomacy, announce a ceasefire, truce, or negotiated framework ending active hostilities in the ongoing Iran war, with that announcement first reported between 2026-09-10 and 2026-10-10.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 20, "resolution": "At least two independently owned wire services, or the US State Department and the Iranian foreign ministry both, confirm a ceasefire, truce, or framework agreement ending active US-Iran hostilities was announced within the stated window, checked by 2026-10-13.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 104, 109, 111 ], "failure_condition": "No ceasefire, truce, or negotiated framework ending active US-Iran hostilities is announced and confirmed by two independent sources within the window; continued strikes, continued talks without agreement, or a unilateral pause not confirmed by both sides all count as a MISS.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-76", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:33.107991+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8d4d69f61afa2e32df08025cc1ce169280f09671c901f60b0378649e94d651ab" }, { "statement": "Russian military forces conduct a strike, using missile, drone, or other kinetic means, that lands on the sovereign territory of a NATO member state, including the UK, between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-03.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 8, "resolution": "At least two independently owned news organizations, or a NATO member government and NATO itself, confirm a Russian-origin strike landed on NATO member territory within the window, checked by 2026-10-06.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 87, 94, 108 ], "failure_condition": "No confirmed Russian-origin strike lands on NATO member territory within the window; verbal warnings, sabotage allegations short of a kinetic strike, or strikes confined to Ukrainian territory all count as a MISS.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-77", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:33.108012+00:00", "seal_sha256": "626d876ad00113cc26492c0d60d1cb21a6a29c40192f864bae542ff2b5d37192" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog entry for CVE-2026-8452, the Citrix NetScaler ADC and Gateway flaw added 2026-08-26, has its knownRansomwareCampaignUse field changed to Yes between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 27, "resolution": "The public CISA KEV catalog feed at cisa.gov shows knownRansomwareCampaignUse equal to Yes for CVE-2026-8452, with the change falling inside the window, checked by 2026-10-19.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 26, 28 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog entry for CVE-2026-8452 still reads Unknown, or never changes to Yes within the window, at the time of the deadline check.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-78", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:33.108026+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5ac64940b8d3bbe5b72abf3cc16e350e08e272920d24bdfdf237449254f0cee5" }, { "statement": "Boston Scientific files a Form 8-K Item 1.05 material cybersecurity incident disclosure with the SEC regarding the cyberattack disclosed 2026-08-26, between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-17.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 38, "resolution": "SEC EDGAR shows a Boston Scientific Form 8-K containing Item 1.05 filed within the window, checked by 2026-10-21.", "deadline": "2026-10-21", "citations": [ 32 ], "failure_condition": "No Boston Scientific Form 8-K containing Item 1.05 appears on EDGAR within the window; disclosure only through press release, a different 8-K item number, or routine risk-factor language in a periodic report all count as a MISS.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-79", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:33.108036+00:00", "seal_sha256": "035ab46317ab5007de76bffff6036ce90ae7b9294ed7db03db133ac77e9082a5" }, { "statement": "The Federal Open Market Committee raises the target federal funds rate range at the conclusion of its September 15-16, 2026 meeting.", "domain": "economics_markets", "probability": 12, "resolution": "The Federal Reserve post-meeting statement released 2026-09-16 shows a target federal funds rate range higher than the range in effect entering the meeting.", "deadline": "2026-09-16", "citations": [ 61 ], "failure_condition": "The FOMC holds the target range unchanged or cuts it at the September 16 meeting; anything other than an announced increase counts as a MISS.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-80", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:33.108044+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b5175f13aca18083467c5a30951925acaae8076e97a90cbd679e25d64dd6feb6" }, { "statement": "The military commission trial date for Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and co-defendants, currently set for June, is reported as vacated, postponed, or otherwise materially altered by a commission ruling, DOD announcement, or appellate court order, between 2026-09-03 and 2027-01-31.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 60, "resolution": "A DOD, Office of Military Commissions, or major wire service report confirms the June trial date no longer stands as scheduled, with that report dated within the window, checked by 2027-02-04.", "deadline": "2027-02-04", "citations": [ 103 ], "failure_condition": "The June trial date remains formally in place with no reported postponement, vacatur, or material alteration through the window; routine pretrial motion activity that does not change the trial date does not count as a hit.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-81", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:33.108051+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4e8a37f66ebd779b3c76fcb12fb99e047b69b59169108a0f5208a87b77b95a4b" }, { "statement": "The confirmed death toll from the August 2026 Nepal-Tibet flash flood and glacial lake outburst event reaches at least 800, as reported by the government of Nepal, Chinese authorities, or UN OCHA, between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 30, "resolution": "A government of Nepal, Chinese government, or UN OCHA situation report states a confirmed fatality count of 800 or more tied to this event, dated within the window, checked by 2026-10-03.", "deadline": "2026-10-03", "citations": [ 35, 39, 48 ], "failure_condition": "Confirmed fatality figures from Nepal, Chinese, or UN OCHA sources remain below 800 through the window; a large missing-persons count that is not converted into confirmed deaths does not count as a hit.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-82", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:33.108060+00:00", "seal_sha256": "08dfc5d65b10e048d7a0c7ac6b809ba544072016f36cd87e561825cbd492ab8b" }, { "statement": "At least one individual arrested in the TeamPCP supply-chain hacking case is formally charged by an Australian prosecutorial authority or a foreign partner agency, between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 58, "resolution": "An AFP, CDPP, DOJ, or equivalent prosecutorial press release, or a court filing, confirms formal charges were laid against at least one TeamPCP suspect within the window, checked by 2026-11-04.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 9, 23 ], "failure_condition": "No formal charges are confirmed laid against any TeamPCP suspect within the window; continued investigation, bail conditions without charges, or release without charge all count as a MISS.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-83", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:33.108067+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6afdad832d9514eb6013382f3034613e3d605797836f0df769013a8f40627d43" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog will add at least 20 CVE entries carrying a dateAdded value between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "Fetch the CISA KEV JSON feed and count entries whose dateAdded field falls between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30 inclusive. A count of 20 or more resolves TRUE.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 26, 28 ], "failure_condition": "Fewer than 20 KEV entries carry a dateAdded value inside the September 2026 window when the catalog is counted at the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-84", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:34.628372+00:00", "seal_sha256": "14e5c735b19e4510adaa6f7f4a6c309fa5578088ec869afc0c4c8b625a960fb1" }, { "statement": "The Federal Register will publish at least one presidential proclamation or executive order imposing new or increased US tariff rates, dated between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 62, "resolution": "A Federal Register presidential document published between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-31 newly imposes or raises US duty rates on imported goods. Pure extensions of existing rates resolve FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 60 ], "failure_condition": "No presidential document dated inside the window newly imposes or raises a US tariff rate.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-85", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:34.628392+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6f66849660299b3f2011f0c644b7caf89122196c0bf20cbf36a214731f0f701d" }, { "statement": "The United States and Iran will hold publicly acknowledged direct bilateral talks between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 33, "resolution": "A US executive branch spokesperson and the Iranian foreign ministry each acknowledge that officials of the two states met directly between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-31. Mediated contact alone resolves FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 104, 109, 111 ], "failure_condition": "US and Iranian officials do not meet face to face inside the window, or all contact runs through third-party mediators.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-86", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:34.628402+00:00", "seal_sha256": "38a1935d1533128535b7fda61c962c5025af704815424f6bcb200b8ac56d178d" }, { "statement": "The UK government will attribute to Russia an attack causing physical damage or casualties to UK territory, UK-flagged shipping, or UK armed forces, occurring between 2026-08-28 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 10, "resolution": "A UK minister or the Ministry of Defence states that Russia carried out such an attack occurring between 2026-08-28 and 2026-12-31 and names the damaged asset or casualties. Cyber intrusion alone resolves FALSE.", "deadline": "2027-01-06", "citations": [ 87, 94 ], "failure_condition": "No Russian attack causing physical damage or casualties to a named UK asset occurs inside the window and is so attributed by a UK minister.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-87", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:34.628410+00:00", "seal_sha256": "798046da5dbcd84b91736de455f920f21f6d59a301fb2a222b82c3732e9f50cc" }, { "statement": "King Harald V of Norway will die between 2026-08-28 and 2026-10-31 and Crown Prince Haakon will succeed him as king.", "domain": "political", "probability": 75, "resolution": "The Royal House of Norway announces the death of King Harald V on a date between 2026-08-28 and 2026-10-31, and Haakon is proclaimed king or takes the oath before the Storting.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 102, 105 ], "failure_condition": "King Harald V is alive at the close of 2026-10-31, or the crown passes to someone other than Haakon.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-88", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:34.628418+00:00", "seal_sha256": "471cb7b16cd18603878c4e86256018f31dd4aa9eef77f3333a589398f40bdbb0" }, { "statement": "Spanish authorities will detain at least one person in connection with the theft of the Treasure of Villena, with the detention occurring between 2026-08-27 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 40, "resolution": "The Guardia Civil, the Policia Nacional, or the Spanish Interior Ministry states that a person was detained in connection with this theft between 2026-08-27 and 2026-11-30, carried by two independent outlets.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 10, 11, 97 ], "failure_condition": "No person is detained by Spanish authorities in connection with this theft inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-89", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:34.628424+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3aeb91558f464f6f59b56c99f20b7c12a7d0c0d5eb2a672e3593df2b8041ad02" }, { "statement": "The FOMC raises the target range for the federal funds rate above 3.50-3.75 percent at its scheduled 2026-09-16 meeting.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The FOMC statement dated 2026-09-16 on federalreserve.gov announces an increase in the target range; equivalently FRED series DFEDTARU shows a value above 3.75 on 2026-09-17.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 61 ], "failure_condition": "The 2026-09-16 FOMC statement leaves the target range at 3.50-3.75 percent or lowers it.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 20, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T16:58:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-90", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:42.450249+00:00", "seal_sha256": "64358e9741fca14c529332552f64520559ff8206c6939c4e4866597604a2445e" }, { "statement": "Nvidia or Hugging Face officially confirms a definitive agreement for Nvidia to acquire Hugging Face between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "A press release, SEC filing by NVIDIA Corp, or official company blog post dated between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-30 states that Nvidia has entered a definitive agreement to acquire Hugging Face.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 81, 62 ], "failure_condition": "Neither company has issued an official confirmation of a definitive acquisition agreement dated inside the window, or either company states the talks ended without agreement.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 20, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T16:58:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-91", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:42.450272+00:00", "seal_sha256": "87a5e6bf3a4843d992e324280c48587613468533e68c7aa8d3af2b8b98f1ad47" }, { "statement": "At least one civil complaint naming Carhartt Inc as defendant over the 2026 customer data breach is filed in a US federal district court between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-02.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "PACER or CourtListener shows a complaint filed between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-02 in any US federal district court that names Carhartt Inc as defendant and alleges harm from the 2026 data breach of about 12.9 million accounts.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 22 ], "failure_condition": "No complaint against Carhartt Inc arising from the breach appears on any federal docket with a filing date inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 27, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T16:58:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-92", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:42.450285+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4a49c5f88f4c0d07fdeeed0ed0a7490b79e75c196dcb6ff5f079c301b478e428" }, { "statement": "CISA adds a vulnerability in the Avada WordPress theme to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded between 2026-08-28 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog JSON contains an entry whose vendorProject, product, or vulnerabilityName field includes Avada, with dateAdded between 2026-08-28 and 2026-10-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 29 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry referencing Avada carries a dateAdded inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 27, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T16:58:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-93", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:42.450294+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3283a9f5e45dd2c28588ef4c4e24a84e08b59e9fd2bae038f9ab28670aaf0e55" }, { "statement": "Official confirmed deaths from the 2026-08-26 Bhotekoshi-Trishuli flash flood, Nepal and Tibet combined, reach at least 1,000 by 2026-09-30.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 52, "resolution": "Reuters, AP, or AFP reports that official confirmed deaths from the 2026-08-26 flood, Nepal police or NDRRMA figures plus Chinese official figures for Gyirong county, total at least 1,000 as of a date no later than 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 35, 39, 48 ], "failure_condition": "Combined official confirmed deaths remain below 1,000 in every wire-service report dated on or before 2026-09-30; missing or presumed-dead counts do not count.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5172, "n": 29, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T16:58:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-94", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:42.450308+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2538f847666d9598d586575c515e0c83b09ce1512bed7345d4589e81fb73015b" }, { "statement": "The Norwegian Royal House announces the death of King Harald V occurring between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-10.", "domain": "political", "probability": 44, "resolution": "An official statement from the Royal House of Norway (kongehuset.no) or NTB reports the death of King Harald V on a date between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-10 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-09-14", "citations": [ 102, 105 ], "failure_condition": "King Harald V is alive on 2026-09-10, or his death is dated after 2026-09-10.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4444, "n": 36, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T16:58:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-95", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:42.450318+00:00", "seal_sha256": "06004bf467dce48192c02a9f0edc899fa297be65a213f845373bc894990abebb", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "The United States and Iran both publicly confirm signing a final agreement ending the war that began on 2026-02-28, with the signing occurring between 2026-08-28 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 53, "resolution": "The White House or State Department and the Iranian Foreign Ministry or IRNA each confirm a signed final agreement ending the war, distinct from a ceasefire, memorandum, or framework, signed between 2026-08-28 and 2026-10-30.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 104, 109, 111 ], "failure_condition": "No accord described by both governments as a final or comprehensive war-ending agreement is signed inside the window; a ceasefire extension, interim MOU, or one-sided claim does not count.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5312, "n": 32, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T16:58:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-96", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:42.450325+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c26bd71c7ada2151070398edde7ae4be86b901d9af07ecdfc3302df75b184cea" }, { "statement": "UKMTO publishes at least three separate incident reports of merchant vessels struck by a projectile, mine, or other weapon in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, or Persian Gulf between 2026-08-28 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 53, "resolution": "The UKMTO incidents page (ukmto.org) lists at least three distinct incident references dated 2026-08-28 to 2026-09-30, each stating a vessel was struck, hit, or impacted in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, or Persian Gulf.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 131, 104 ], "failure_condition": "Fewer than three distinct UKMTO incident reports dated inside the window describe a vessel actually struck; approaches, warnings, and boardings do not count.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5312, "n": 32, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T16:58:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-97", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:42.450334+00:00", "seal_sha256": "46e76666e4765962894fcd005e0e72d1a15bdb3f2f8d0755b4aefffee5a6a830" }, { "statement": "Spanish authorities (Guardia Civil or Policia Nacional) announce at least one arrest in the 2026-08-27 Villena Treasure theft between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 43, "resolution": "An official Guardia Civil or Policia Nacional communication, or Reuters, AP, AFP, or EFE citing such officials, reports at least one person arrested (detenido) for the Villena Museum theft, with the arrest dated between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-30.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 10, 11, 97 ], "failure_condition": "No arrest attributed to the Villena Museum theft is announced by Spanish authorities with an arrest date inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4257, "n": 148, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T16:58:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-98", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:42.450342+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7859a3f70b6eed51cfa6b0f24b12c185e8a38304e8ec4b1da460b184058b3718" }, { "statement": "The United States and Iran, directly or through the mediating states of Qatar, Oman, or Pakistan named in current shuttle diplomacy, announce a ceasefire, truce, or negotiated framework ending active hostilities in the ongoing Iran war, with that announcement first reported between 2026-09-10 and 2026-10-10.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 53, "resolution": "At least two independently owned wire services, or the US State Department and the Iranian foreign ministry both, confirm a ceasefire, truce, or framework agreement ending active US-Iran hostilities was announced within the stated window, checked by 2026-10-13.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 104, 109, 111 ], "failure_condition": "No ceasefire, truce, or negotiated framework ending active US-Iran hostilities is announced and confirmed by two independent sources within the window; continued strikes, continued talks without agreement, or a unilateral pause not confirmed by both sides all count as a MISS.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5312, "n": 32, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T16:58:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-99", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:43.291056+00:00", "seal_sha256": "895c99617bc4f651777324eaa5e055ce8360dec6ef1e3107bec3a31ec43e698e" }, { "statement": "Russian military forces conduct a strike, using missile, drone, or other kinetic means, that lands on the sovereign territory of a NATO member state, including the UK, between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-03.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 53, "resolution": "At least two independently owned news organizations, or a NATO member government and NATO itself, confirm a Russian-origin strike landed on NATO member territory within the window, checked by 2026-10-06.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 87, 94, 108 ], "failure_condition": "No confirmed Russian-origin strike lands on NATO member territory within the window; verbal warnings, sabotage allegations short of a kinetic strike, or strikes confined to Ukrainian territory all count as a MISS.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5312, "n": 32, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T16:58:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-100", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:43.291079+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3f5974fcd14846a1d93ce3fc3df4c4ada179dec76246cdb8c3c48852662bb356" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog entry for CVE-2026-8452, the Citrix NetScaler ADC and Gateway flaw added 2026-08-26, has its knownRansomwareCampaignUse field changed to Yes between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "The public CISA KEV catalog feed at cisa.gov shows knownRansomwareCampaignUse equal to Yes for CVE-2026-8452, with the change falling inside the window, checked by 2026-10-19.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 26, 28 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog entry for CVE-2026-8452 still reads Unknown, or never changes to Yes within the window, at the time of the deadline check.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 27, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T16:58:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-101", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:43.291091+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b91d49c6641ca3dbce04466a0d1af1baba237a5d3d3f5fc5756ded5e647c0a31" }, { "statement": "Boston Scientific files a Form 8-K Item 1.05 material cybersecurity incident disclosure with the SEC regarding the cyberattack disclosed 2026-08-26, between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-17.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "SEC EDGAR shows a Boston Scientific Form 8-K containing Item 1.05 filed within the window, checked by 2026-10-21.", "deadline": "2026-10-21", "citations": [ 32 ], "failure_condition": "No Boston Scientific Form 8-K containing Item 1.05 appears on EDGAR within the window; disclosure only through press release, a different 8-K item number, or routine risk-factor language in a periodic report all count as a MISS.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 27, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T16:58:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-102", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:43.291101+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ebbf3d22a67378598c2d5bf07e44b906929df6d553a26dc9b4f7e1d61fe57c61" }, { "statement": "The Federal Open Market Committee raises the target federal funds rate range at the conclusion of its September 15-16, 2026 meeting.", "domain": "economics_markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The Federal Reserve post-meeting statement released 2026-09-16 shows a target federal funds rate range higher than the range in effect entering the meeting.", "deadline": "2026-09-16", "citations": [ 61 ], "failure_condition": "The FOMC holds the target range unchanged or cuts it at the September 16 meeting; anything other than an announced increase counts as a MISS.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 20, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T16:58:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-103", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:43.291110+00:00", "seal_sha256": "583995da44fa4bb40354bf716d18ad6b68e42ade43ee6daf6ee2c1d319085e49" }, { "statement": "The military commission trial date for Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and co-defendants, currently set for June, is reported as vacated, postponed, or otherwise materially altered by a commission ruling, DOD announcement, or appellate court order, between 2026-09-03 and 2027-01-31.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 43, "resolution": "A DOD, Office of Military Commissions, or major wire service report confirms the June trial date no longer stands as scheduled, with that report dated within the window, checked by 2027-02-04.", "deadline": "2027-02-04", "citations": [ 103 ], "failure_condition": "The June trial date remains formally in place with no reported postponement, vacatur, or material alteration through the window; routine pretrial motion activity that does not change the trial date does not count as a hit.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4257, "n": 148, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T16:58:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-104", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:43.291117+00:00", "seal_sha256": "33b63147745db19ae88a09f61bd72686615773c8bda9f725db1cbfccb83f4e08" }, { "statement": "The confirmed death toll from the August 2026 Nepal-Tibet flash flood and glacial lake outburst event reaches at least 800, as reported by the government of Nepal, Chinese authorities, or UN OCHA, between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 52, "resolution": "A government of Nepal, Chinese government, or UN OCHA situation report states a confirmed fatality count of 800 or more tied to this event, dated within the window, checked by 2026-10-03.", "deadline": "2026-10-03", "citations": [ 35, 39, 48 ], "failure_condition": "Confirmed fatality figures from Nepal, Chinese, or UN OCHA sources remain below 800 through the window; a large missing-persons count that is not converted into confirmed deaths does not count as a hit.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5172, "n": 29, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T16:58:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-105", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:43.291124+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6ba6bc957abfdba4b050d7c3a1f2533a2f1340cd384c46d415056cabafbcbe63" }, { "statement": "At least one individual arrested in the TeamPCP supply-chain hacking case is formally charged by an Australian prosecutorial authority or a foreign partner agency, between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 43, "resolution": "An AFP, CDPP, DOJ, or equivalent prosecutorial press release, or a court filing, confirms formal charges were laid against at least one TeamPCP suspect within the window, checked by 2026-11-04.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 9, 23 ], "failure_condition": "No formal charges are confirmed laid against any TeamPCP suspect within the window; continued investigation, bail conditions without charges, or release without charge all count as a MISS.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4257, "n": 148, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T16:58:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-106", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:43.291131+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8ce3a5daa805ab0bb7a7a44e22c088669c8edb56c7419f02f4661d6c170a36a4" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog will add at least 20 CVE entries carrying a dateAdded value between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "Fetch the CISA KEV JSON feed and count entries whose dateAdded field falls between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30 inclusive. A count of 20 or more resolves TRUE.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 26, 28 ], "failure_condition": "Fewer than 20 KEV entries carry a dateAdded value inside the September 2026 window when the catalog is counted at the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 27, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T16:58:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-107", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:45.674282+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5fe572859c23b4fc34ff4dd56e71949910ca2bb717f636ad63b1dce7b7a5ceb8" }, { "statement": "The Federal Register will publish at least one presidential proclamation or executive order imposing new or increased US tariff rates, dated between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "A Federal Register presidential document published between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-31 newly imposes or raises US duty rates on imported goods. Pure extensions of existing rates resolve FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 60 ], "failure_condition": "No presidential document dated inside the window newly imposes or raises a US tariff rate.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 20, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T16:58:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-108", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:45.674307+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8afbc592dabb60bc937fd633a0b57edad250d40315d9a423fac56f06fb41eeea" }, { "statement": "The United States and Iran will hold publicly acknowledged direct bilateral talks between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 53, "resolution": "A US executive branch spokesperson and the Iranian foreign ministry each acknowledge that officials of the two states met directly between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-31. Mediated contact alone resolves FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 104, 109, 111 ], "failure_condition": "US and Iranian officials do not meet face to face inside the window, or all contact runs through third-party mediators.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5312, "n": 32, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T16:58:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-109", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:45.674320+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4821a1ff4b7ad076e91e075f5234eb3be9ecad9d1c50c34e8df37e55edf0de76" }, { "statement": "The UK government will attribute to Russia an attack causing physical damage or casualties to UK territory, UK-flagged shipping, or UK armed forces, occurring between 2026-08-28 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 53, "resolution": "A UK minister or the Ministry of Defence states that Russia carried out such an attack occurring between 2026-08-28 and 2026-12-31 and names the damaged asset or casualties. Cyber intrusion alone resolves FALSE.", "deadline": "2027-01-06", "citations": [ 87, 94 ], "failure_condition": "No Russian attack causing physical damage or casualties to a named UK asset occurs inside the window and is so attributed by a UK minister.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5312, "n": 32, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T16:58:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-110", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:45.674329+00:00", "seal_sha256": "003fc2ade02802c1eb642996216c02c429ad8bfab8b130e20f787714f967608d" }, { "statement": "King Harald V of Norway will die between 2026-08-28 and 2026-10-31 and Crown Prince Haakon will succeed him as king.", "domain": "political", "probability": 44, "resolution": "The Royal House of Norway announces the death of King Harald V on a date between 2026-08-28 and 2026-10-31, and Haakon is proclaimed king or takes the oath before the Storting.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 102, 105 ], "failure_condition": "King Harald V is alive at the close of 2026-10-31, or the crown passes to someone other than Haakon.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4444, "n": 36, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T16:58:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-27_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260827-111", "date_issued": "2026-08-27", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-27_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-27T16:58:45.674338+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c2c439fe88cde96d8bb19eb7bbb8de7bff44a1297eed69e0e7b0e4bc809ecd15" }, { "statement": "Spanish authorities will detain at least one person in connection with the theft of the Treasure of Villena, with the detention occurring between 2026-08-27 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 43, "resolution": "The Guardia Civil, the Policia Nacional, or the Spanish Interior Ministry states that a person was detained in connection with this theft between 2026-08-27 and 2026-11-30, carried by two independent outlets.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 10, 11, 97 ], "failure_condition": "No person is detained by Spanish authorities in connection with this theft inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4257, "n": 148, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-27T16:58:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. 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warehouse); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog will include at least one new exploited vulnerability between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-15.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog carries at least one entry with a date-added value between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-15.", "deadline": "2026-09-17", "citations": [ 8 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog contains no entries with a date-added value between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-15.", "id": "KKR-20260829-02", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T15:39:32.449685+00:00", "seal_sha256": "75719325f29be3fe86438b8a184e81b2887dc937bec964ccfc4ebb73247d1c26" }, { "statement": "A major earthquake with magnitude 6.5 or higher will be recorded by USGS in the Pacific Northwest between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 15, "resolution": "The USGS Significant Quakes feed records one or more events with magnitude ≥6.5 in the Pacific Northwest region between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 7 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS Significant Quakes feed records no events with magnitude ≥6.5 in the Pacific Northwest region between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "id": "KKR-20260829-03", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T15:39:32.449704+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7f194e88d8b353de0284e5d1b1b7c0ee0fb38f19f0fb705e3cc84ba9fcf5c6bf" }, { "statement": "The S&P 500 will close above 7,800 on at least one weekday between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 45, "resolution": "The S&P 500 closes at or above 7,800 on at least one weekday between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30, as reported by MarketWatch.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 5 ], "failure_condition": "The S&P 500 never closes at or above 7,800 on any weekday between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30, as reported by MarketWatch.", "id": "KKR-20260829-04", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T15:39:32.449722+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fc45854e592532dccda990d5bb71e6769b141ff0234b173277f80761df3cbb7f" }, { "statement": "A cyberattack exploiting a flaw in PaperCut software will be confirmed by BleepingComputer between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-15.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 35, "resolution": "BleepingComputer publishes a report between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-17 confirming that a cyberattack exploited a flaw in PaperCut software between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-15.", "deadline": "2026-09-17", "citations": [ 15, 17 ], "failure_condition": "BleepingComputer publishes no report between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-17 confirming a cyberattack exploiting a flaw in PaperCut software between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-15.", "id": "KKR-20260829-05", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T15:39:32.449736+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e2ecb1e868169383ab5ffdc14f5838474a9d62e26d3f3ccec4aaaa3033377103" }, { "statement": "The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will exceed 4.8% on at least one weekday between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 50, "resolution": "The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds 4.8% on at least one weekday between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30, as reported by CNBC.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 5, 67 ], "failure_condition": "The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield never exceeds 4.8% on any weekday between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30, as reported by CNBC.", "id": "KKR-20260829-06", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T15:39:32.449749+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9d9a8d0c5d313f967df359bb691a5ce40c9d44a6539d209525f18cdc4a7d36a8" }, { "statement": "A drone strike on Gaza City will be confirmed by Al Jazeera and BBC World between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-15.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "Al Jazeera and BBC World each publish a report between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-17 confirming a drone strike on Gaza City between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-15.", "deadline": "2026-09-17", "citations": [ 6 ], "failure_condition": "Al Jazeera and BBC World publish no report between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-17 confirming a drone strike on Gaza City between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-15.", "id": "KKR-20260829-07", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T15:39:32.449761+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4acd07d6ddb564fe83e67998e0f9d1c49bea00955977026ff2b6620035ac3899" }, { "statement": "The European Union will report gas storage levels below 30% of capacity on at least one weekday between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 40, "resolution": "The Guardian Business reports that EU gas storage levels are below 30% of capacity on at least one weekday between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 60 ], "failure_condition": "Guardian Business reports no weekday between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30 where EU gas storage levels are below 30% of capacity.", "id": "KKR-20260829-08", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T15:39:32.449772+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ba8d92856e022cd43bb7b37a533ac0abdbcba47434e7cfa61bddc1961a6638a4" }, { "statement": "A major cyberattack exploiting a flaw in the Cosmos EVM will be confirmed by The Hacker News between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-15.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The Hacker News publishes a report between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-17 confirming that a cyberattack exploited a flaw in the Cosmos EVM between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-15.", "deadline": "2026-09-17", "citations": [ 14 ], "failure_condition": "The Hacker News publishes no report between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-17 confirming a cyberattack exploiting a flaw in the Cosmos EVM between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-15.", "id": "KKR-20260829-09", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T15:39:32.449784+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7192fc9ad810deb16a2810fa5f518ef0a54ef78de3930747d97193e7539bd494" }, { "statement": "Russian forces conduct at least one drone or missile strike on Kyiv between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 93, "resolution": "At least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, or BBC report a Russian drone or missile strike on Kyiv occurring between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 90 ], "failure_condition": "No Russian drone or missile strike on Kyiv occurs at any point between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-28_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-10", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-28_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:30.065396+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a3876ef1ab6e0845c431d9a5d2d24fb3107be700b4513ceef942503a0fd8079d" }, { "statement": "The United States and Iran convene at least one publicly acknowledged round of direct or mediated negotiations between 2026-08-29 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 40, "resolution": "Both the US and Iranian governments publicly acknowledge that direct or mediated negotiations between their officials convened on at least one date between 2026-08-29 and 2026-11-30.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 76, 92, 100 ], "failure_condition": "No round of direct or mediated US-Iran negotiations convenes with public acknowledgment from both governments during the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-28_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-11", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-28_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:30.065417+00:00", "seal_sha256": "89a6dbac5c20e2fbf774c65d123a2989ac0a224093547b369e9a23fcfbf14831" }, { "statement": "CISA adds a ServiceNow vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-29 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 40, "resolution": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog contains at least one entry with vendorProject ServiceNow and a dateAdded value between 2026-08-29 and 2026-12-31.", "deadline": "2027-01-04", "citations": [ 18, 20 ], "failure_condition": "No ServiceNow entry with a dateAdded value inside the window exists in the CISA KEV catalog when checked at the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-28_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-12", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-28_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:30.065429+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ec624a3559292aa79bcf8f72ccc4eb7c41a2f7c9f562fc74d7db885fca666bdd" }, { "statement": "The combined confirmed death toll from the Nepal-Tibet flash floods reaches at least 1000 between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 55, "resolution": "Official Nepali government figures or OCHA reporting state a combined Nepal and Tibet confirmed death toll of at least 1000 from the August 2026 flash floods, on or before 2026-10-15.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 42, 31, 35 ], "failure_condition": "Combined confirmed deaths acknowledged by Nepali authorities or OCHA remain below 1000 through 2026-10-15.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-28_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-13", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-28_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:30.065437+00:00", "seal_sha256": "72c68de261c1dc7defde4aa129dac8964b3db186cc8921a1994aa2f91e3d3fac" }, { "statement": "The barrier lake at the Nepal-China border produces a further outburst or overflow causing new evacuations, damage, or deaths between 2026-08-29 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 30, "resolution": "At least two of BBC, Guardian, Al Jazeera, Reuters, or AP report a new outburst or overflow from the Nepal-China barrier lake between 2026-08-29 and 2026-09-30 causing fresh evacuations, damage, or deaths.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 43, 46, 99 ], "failure_condition": "The barrier lake produces no further outburst or overflow causing evacuations, damage, or deaths during the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-28_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-14", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-28_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:30.065445+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2c3651c956862fc19abe66c6027c0d02900b21776f1cc96422a895ac7e06afdb" }, { "statement": "The FOMC will leave the federal funds target range unchanged at its scheduled meeting concluding 2026-09-16, despite the hawkish Jackson Hole remarks in items 53, 55, and 56.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 50, "resolution": "True if the FOMC statement released 2026-09-16 at 2pm ET sets the same target range in effect entering the meeting, per federalreserve.gov or a wire report.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 53, 55, 56 ], "failure_condition": "The 2026-09-16 FOMC statement shows any change, cut or hike, to the federal funds target range.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-28_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-15", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-28_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:31.677723+00:00", "seal_sha256": "59ae8d28c71cb9ea7dc56aac9ba72ae560fbcc9a71c45ee33336dcfedf80f1d1" }, { "statement": "A second, distinct flash-flood or lake-outburst event from the barrier lake in items 43 and 46 will hit Nepal or Tibet, separate from the flooding already reported as of 2026-08-28, between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 25, "resolution": "True if Nepal disaster authorities, Chinese state media, or two wire services report a new flood or outburst event from this barrier lake, distinct from the ongoing flooding, in that window, checked at the deadline.", "deadline": "2026-10-18", "citations": [ 43, 46 ], "failure_condition": "No new, distinct flood or outburst event from this barrier lake is reported within the window as of the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-28_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-16", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-28_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:31.677745+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8b44f58a1beb347a2627bccfd6a85ea873d818f9bb94d3c8cf5d1d9196208e6f" }, { "statement": "The FOMC raises the federal funds target range by 25 basis points at its scheduled 2026-09-15 to 2026-09-16 meeting, lifting the range to 3.75-4.00 percent.", "domain": "economics_markets", "probability": 65, "resolution": "The FOMC policy statement dated 2026-09-16 on federalreserve.gov sets the federal funds target range at 3.75 to 4.00 percent. A hold, a cut, or any other size of move resolves false.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 53, 55, 56 ], "failure_condition": "The 2026-09-16 statement leaves the range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, or sets any range other than 3.75 to 4.00 percent.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-28_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-17", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-28_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:32.526056+00:00", "seal_sha256": "368c5b7cc9b317c203c868cb24b7025dd904d0e9a521449ceaa491a1c08659b9" }, { "statement": "Ukrainian authorities report Russian drone or missile impacts inside Kyiv city on at least six separate calendar days between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 78, "resolution": "Kyiv City Military Administration or Ukrainian Air Force statements, each carried by Reuters, AFP, or AP, place drone or missile impacts inside Kyiv city on six or more distinct days in the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 90 ], "failure_condition": "Five or fewer distinct calendar days inside the window carry a corroborated impact report for Kyiv city.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-28_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-18", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-28_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:32.526078+00:00", "seal_sha256": "82f831170437ef45d9da9b02be5dea5a17b5b5d69b358634822c5ef5cafc0636" }, { "statement": "Iran halts commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz for at least 72 consecutive hours at some point between 2026-09-01 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 7, "resolution": "Two of Reuters, Lloyds List, and AP report that commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was suspended by Iranian action for 72 or more consecutive hours inside the window.", "deadline": "2027-01-05", "citations": [ 76, 97 ], "failure_condition": "No Iranian-imposed suspension of Hormuz commercial transit reaches 72 consecutive hours inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-28_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-19", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-28_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:32.526088+00:00", "seal_sha256": "450337205ef8c50227611acfab5a92e236a56554caa2b55ab30eaaeca9dac0f5" }, { "statement": "The United States and Iran hold direct, publicly acknowledged government-to-government talks between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "Officials of both governments publicly confirm a direct meeting between US and Iranian representatives held inside the window, reported by two of Reuters, AP, and AFP. Indirect mediation only resolves false.", "deadline": "2026-12-03", "citations": [ 76, 92 ], "failure_condition": "No meeting inside the window is acknowledged by both governments as direct US-Iran contact.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-28_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-20", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-28_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:32.526097+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7cca7acdb38c771dbc895f83302d87ebe1bf0e74efb6e062da6b84e269c4dcbb" }, { "statement": "Combined confirmed deaths from the Nepal-Tibet glacial outburst flood reach 1,000 or more at some point between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 45, "resolution": "Nepal Police and Chinese authority tolls, as reported by two of Reuters, AP, and AFP, sum to 1,000 or more confirmed dead on any date inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 42, 31, 29 ], "failure_condition": "The highest combined confirmed toll reported inside the window remains below 1,000.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-28_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-21", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-28_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:32.526104+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1d05479dea20069ed3b81f07b261517fbd8fc683efe67708c6f7d5526c79b4db" }, { "statement": "Austrian authorities announce at least one arrest in the Vienna museum theft of the 673-diamond necklace between 2026-08-29 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 44, "resolution": "Vienna police or the Austrian public prosecutor announce an arrest or detention connected to the necklace theft, reported by two of Reuters, AP, AFP, and DPA, inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-12-03", "citations": [ 9 ], "failure_condition": "No arrest or detention connected to the theft is announced by Austrian authorities inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-28_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-22", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-28_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:32.526111+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9a78c15fef5120c6526b053f481ee96007ed9b59e563a2377469e0f0e6472643" }, { "statement": "Russian forces conduct at least one drone or missile strike on Kyiv between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 53, "resolution": "At least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, or BBC report a Russian drone or missile strike on Kyiv occurring between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 90 ], "failure_condition": "No Russian drone or missile strike on Kyiv occurs at any point between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5312, "n": 32, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:32Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-28_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-23", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-28_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:33.655036+00:00", "seal_sha256": "65e46e245b0f6bdc92374e7d0b6419426dd99c96bcc95a6e74fb6b54c03dd1d9" }, { "statement": "The United States and Iran convene at least one publicly acknowledged round of direct or mediated negotiations between 2026-08-29 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 53, "resolution": "Both the US and Iranian governments publicly acknowledge that direct or mediated negotiations between their officials convened on at least one date between 2026-08-29 and 2026-11-30.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 76, 92, 100 ], "failure_condition": "No round of direct or mediated US-Iran negotiations convenes with public acknowledgment from both governments during the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5312, "n": 32, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:32Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-28_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-24", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-28_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:33.655056+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7ff87e5740dd5e4b2e8254f6d70db1ee76b857c665aba454517edad3b68c5620" }, { "statement": "CISA adds a ServiceNow vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-29 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog contains at least one entry with vendorProject ServiceNow and a dateAdded value between 2026-08-29 and 2026-12-31.", "deadline": "2027-01-04", "citations": [ 18, 20 ], "failure_condition": "No ServiceNow entry with a dateAdded value inside the window exists in the CISA KEV catalog when checked at the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 27, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:32Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-28_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-25", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-28_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:33.655067+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2b10312fb9e409d1c13fdb3acb919ea67f697995c177f2b02bd5c7e2bf5fdaf6" }, { "statement": "The combined confirmed death toll from the Nepal-Tibet flash floods reaches at least 1000 between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 52, "resolution": "Official Nepali government figures or OCHA reporting state a combined Nepal and Tibet confirmed death toll of at least 1000 from the August 2026 flash floods, on or before 2026-10-15.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 42, 31, 35 ], "failure_condition": "Combined confirmed deaths acknowledged by Nepali authorities or OCHA remain below 1000 through 2026-10-15.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5172, "n": 29, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:32Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-28_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-26", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-28_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:33.655076+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6f10be972922d958b8fb695e8836f80f5c338f4cbc8352f850dd2a9e46395e1e" }, { "statement": "The barrier lake at the Nepal-China border produces a further outburst or overflow causing new evacuations, damage, or deaths between 2026-08-29 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 52, "resolution": "At least two of BBC, Guardian, Al Jazeera, Reuters, or AP report a new outburst or overflow from the Nepal-China barrier lake between 2026-08-29 and 2026-09-30 causing fresh evacuations, damage, or deaths.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 43, 46, 99 ], "failure_condition": "The barrier lake produces no further outburst or overflow causing evacuations, damage, or deaths during the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5172, "n": 29, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:32Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-28_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-27", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-28_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:33.655083+00:00", "seal_sha256": "116eb433cfff2db440d870b18b3dabbcac568425226b93095856ccb73009920d" }, { "statement": "The FOMC will leave the federal funds target range unchanged at its scheduled meeting concluding 2026-09-16, despite the hawkish Jackson Hole remarks in items 53, 55, and 56.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 25, "resolution": "True if the FOMC statement released 2026-09-16 at 2pm ET sets the same target range in effect entering the meeting, per federalreserve.gov or a wire report.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 53, 55, 56 ], "failure_condition": "The 2026-09-16 FOMC statement shows any change, cut or hike, to the federal funds target range.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 20, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:32Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-28_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-28", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-28_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:34.499236+00:00", "seal_sha256": "becd18d8cd880656eda31b7e7d062f8470289c558b0bff1a0a19940e70b85858" }, { "statement": "A second, distinct flash-flood or lake-outburst event from the barrier lake in items 43 and 46 will hit Nepal or Tibet, separate from the flooding already reported as of 2026-08-28, between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 52, "resolution": "True if Nepal disaster authorities, Chinese state media, or two wire services report a new flood or outburst event from this barrier lake, distinct from the ongoing flooding, in that window, checked at the deadline.", "deadline": "2026-10-18", "citations": [ 43, 46 ], "failure_condition": "No new, distinct flood or outburst event from this barrier lake is reported within the window as of the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5172, "n": 29, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:32Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-28_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-29", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-28_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:34.499257+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ce03fb799dea7e0a665dc7219fa857266e21362cbf8a1df88a4aee5ed0240505" }, { "statement": "The FOMC raises the federal funds target range by 25 basis points at its scheduled 2026-09-15 to 2026-09-16 meeting, lifting the range to 3.75-4.00 percent.", "domain": "economics_markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The FOMC policy statement dated 2026-09-16 on federalreserve.gov sets the federal funds target range at 3.75 to 4.00 percent. A hold, a cut, or any other size of move resolves false.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 53, 55, 56 ], "failure_condition": "The 2026-09-16 statement leaves the range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, or sets any range other than 3.75 to 4.00 percent.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 20, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:32Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-28_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-30", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-28_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:37.905610+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ad8594185e435883f40033cdcfdeb0d4d816cc5ae0f9cb90f28ae2a73c46a6ab" }, { "statement": "Ukrainian authorities report Russian drone or missile impacts inside Kyiv city on at least six separate calendar days between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 53, "resolution": "Kyiv City Military Administration or Ukrainian Air Force statements, each carried by Reuters, AFP, or AP, place drone or missile impacts inside Kyiv city on six or more distinct days in the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 90 ], "failure_condition": "Five or fewer distinct calendar days inside the window carry a corroborated impact report for Kyiv city.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5312, "n": 32, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:32Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-28_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-31", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-28_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:37.905633+00:00", "seal_sha256": "57c739b916e81455804295f39fc0c1e8701e12fa6f3f9633bfa5590bb30e475e" }, { "statement": "Iran halts commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz for at least 72 consecutive hours at some point between 2026-09-01 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 53, "resolution": "Two of Reuters, Lloyds List, and AP report that commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was suspended by Iranian action for 72 or more consecutive hours inside the window.", "deadline": "2027-01-05", "citations": [ 76, 97 ], "failure_condition": "No Iranian-imposed suspension of Hormuz commercial transit reaches 72 consecutive hours inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5312, "n": 32, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:32Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-28_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-32", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-28_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:37.905644+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6835f75b0b2794c8797029bb71d9dd9654c42055c08a2832ef19d9cacbf18663" }, { "statement": "The United States and Iran hold direct, publicly acknowledged government-to-government talks between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 44, "resolution": "Officials of both governments publicly confirm a direct meeting between US and Iranian representatives held inside the window, reported by two of Reuters, AP, and AFP. Indirect mediation only resolves false.", "deadline": "2026-12-03", "citations": [ 76, 92 ], "failure_condition": "No meeting inside the window is acknowledged by both governments as direct US-Iran contact.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4444, "n": 36, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:32Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-28_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-33", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-28_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:37.905654+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ab2b0e789d35893233d0f12adc48c2d0b24c8626946044942d7e59b4e4acd36d" }, { "statement": "Combined confirmed deaths from the Nepal-Tibet glacial outburst flood reach 1,000 or more at some point between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 52, "resolution": "Nepal Police and Chinese authority tolls, as reported by two of Reuters, AP, and AFP, sum to 1,000 or more confirmed dead on any date inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 42, 31, 29 ], "failure_condition": "The highest combined confirmed toll reported inside the window remains below 1,000.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5172, "n": 29, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:32Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-28_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-34", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-28_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:37.905662+00:00", "seal_sha256": "27365a13c8daee7828dc7a495a71f49c97874a628757da418c1af4006fe9364d" }, { "statement": "Austrian authorities announce at least one arrest in the Vienna museum theft of the 673-diamond necklace between 2026-08-29 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 43, "resolution": "Vienna police or the Austrian public prosecutor announce an arrest or detention connected to the necklace theft, reported by two of Reuters, AP, AFP, and DPA, inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-12-03", "citations": [ 9 ], "failure_condition": "No arrest or detention connected to the theft is announced by Austrian authorities inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4257, "n": 148, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:32Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-28_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-35", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-28_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:37.905670+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1c251e8041fdcca9fd86616e727883463febf0daf0a8614cd45639172d9770f1" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30, at least one Russian strike event in Kyiv city or Kyiv oblast kills 10 or more people according to Ukrainian state authorities.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 80, "resolution": "Ukrainian state authorities attribute 10 or more deaths to a single strike event in Kyiv city or oblast occurring between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30, carried by two international news agencies.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 71, 74, 76 ], "failure_condition": "No single strike event in Kyiv city or oblast between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30 is assigned 10 or more deaths in Ukrainian official counts.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-36", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:44.647791+00:00", "seal_sha256": "419f68bbaaf051f5bc68cd9feb2cb753006d1cff68a6134be7b36bdf9b0c7976" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-30 and 2026-11-30, the US and Iranian governments both publicly confirm a specific round of direct or mediated negotiations, with venue or date named.", "domain": "political", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The US State Department or White House and the Iranian foreign ministry each publicly confirm a negotiation round with named venue or date occurring between 2026-08-30 and 2026-11-30, per two international outlets.", "deadline": "2026-12-03", "citations": [ 40, 87 ], "failure_condition": "By 2026-11-30 no negotiation round with named venue or date has been publicly confirmed by both governments.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-37", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:44.647812+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f1e6ee5982cfc525b66ba1435fb395cec1717c69fcdf440938d16d0881dd87d5" }, { "statement": "By 2026-10-30, the combined official confirmed death toll from the August 2026 Nepal-Tibet glacial outburst floods, per Nepali and Chinese authorities, reaches at least 1,000.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 50, "resolution": "AP, Reuters, AFP, or BBC report official Nepali plus Chinese confirmed-dead figures for the August 2026 flood totaling 1,000 or more, dated on or before 2026-10-30.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 25, 38, 42 ], "failure_condition": "The latest official combined confirmed toll reported on or before 2026-10-30 stands below 1,000.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-38", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:44.647825+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9e9a73dd54d0d3124ed2d719a9daf3f4ea0be56e760072ee394dc4b2110ebb00" }, { "statement": "A PaperCut vulnerability is added to the CISA KEV catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-29 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 65, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog JSON contains at least one entry naming PaperCut with dateAdded between 2026-08-29 and 2026-09-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 15, 17 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV catalog fetched at the deadline contains no PaperCut entry with dateAdded inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-39", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:44.647834+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4d9864f87fec7e8efd992d34f7af7bcdcc0d22401aca51a6454e06e73cd8df5f" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above 95.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-27.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 45, "resolution": "Official ICE Brent front-month daily settlement prices show at least one settlement at or above 95.00 USD between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-27.", "deadline": "2026-12-01", "citations": [ 40, 60, 64 ], "failure_condition": "Every ICE Brent front-month settlement between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-27 is below 95.00 USD.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-40", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:44.647842+00:00", "seal_sha256": "73aaacf7852f6becb906ba84ff84a947163d91d241373205166d586be841820a" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-29 and 2026-11-30, Treasury OFAC publishes a new or amended Venezuela general license authorizing petroleum-sector transactions.", "domain": "political", "probability": 55, "resolution": "The OFAC Venezuela sanctions page carries a general license, new or amended, dated between 2026-08-29 and 2026-11-30, whose text authorizes petroleum-sector transactions.", "deadline": "2026-12-03", "citations": [ 64, 94, 118 ], "failure_condition": "No general license meeting the description with an issue date inside the window appears on the OFAC site.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-41", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:44.647850+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d3be53cd01e79d0d4c43e4a0e9cbd7f710f0ad5c21a6080274fdb1b6034351a7" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-31, US authorities remove Milo Yiannopoulos from the United States.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 30, "resolution": "Two international outlets, citing DHS, ICE, or court records, report Yiannopoulos removed or deported from the US on a date between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-31.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 69 ], "failure_condition": "Yiannopoulos remains in the United States, whether detained or released, through 2026-10-31.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-42", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:44.647857+00:00", "seal_sha256": "267b66290d6ca2c12c53e798e95b06b0146289a2933e9fbe5764643b93408bf3" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog will add an entry for CVE-2026-81578 or CVE-2026-82078, the actively exploited PaperCut NG/MF flaws, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-24.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 65, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog lists CVE-2026-81578 or CVE-2026-82078 with dateAdded inside the window, checked on 2026-10-26; FALSE if neither entry appears by then.", "deadline": "2026-10-26", "citations": [ 15, 17 ], "failure_condition": "Neither CVE-2026-81578 nor CVE-2026-82078 has a dateAdded entry in the CISA KEV catalog on or before 2026-10-24.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-43", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:45.509856+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b0a11f2780fb61263de9de85a21f20b58c36684b25bbf1a7ed5b180c7e64b377" }, { "statement": "McKesson will file a document on SEC EDGAR, such as a Form 8-K/A or 10-Q, between 2026-09-05 and 2026-11-30 that states a specific number or bounded range of individuals affected by its August 2026 data theft incident.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if a McKesson SEC EDGAR filing dated in the window states a specific number or bounded range of affected individuals; FALSE if no such filing exists as of 2026-12-02.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 12 ], "failure_condition": "No McKesson filing on SEC EDGAR dated on or before 2026-11-30 states a specific number or bounded range of affected individuals.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-44", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:45.509878+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c8b62e4bb9e949e046bf5bf4f342263d56f5e19b15f6b5f65ec503b3680d3795" }, { "statement": "Serbia will hold its snap parliamentary election on 2026-10-25 rather than on 2026-10-18, the two dates floated by President Aleksandar Vucic.", "domain": "political", "probability": 52, "resolution": "TRUE if Serbian election authorities or two of Reuters, AP, and AFP confirm voting occurred on 2026-10-25; FALSE if the vote is held 2026-10-18 or not confirmed by 2026-10-28.", "deadline": "2026-10-28", "citations": [ 112 ], "failure_condition": "Voting for this election takes place on a date other than 2026-10-25, or remains unconfirmed as of 2026-10-28.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-45", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:45.509889+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7320d2669e3c78082ac92c39500c576d17f5e7dfefff9386165cfeab9a818939" }, { "statement": "A single Russian missile or drone strike will kill 10 or more people in Kyiv, Ukraine, between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-05.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 78, "resolution": "TRUE if Ukrainian officials and at least one of Reuters, AP, or AFP report 10 or more deaths from one strike on Kyiv in the window; checked 2026-10-07; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-10-07", "citations": [ 71, 76 ], "failure_condition": "No single strike on Kyiv in this window is confirmed by Ukrainian officials and a wire service to have killed 10 or more people.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-46", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:45.509897+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8d1e94ee81d02b8a7104bff019c1e8479e2c6672a5dcd14d1867424d3028a60b" }, { "statement": "Mojtaba Khamenei will still publicly hold the title of Supreme Leader of Iran throughout the window from 2026-09-05 to 2027-01-31.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 75, "resolution": "TRUE if Iranian state media and at least one of Reuters or AP confirm Mojtaba Khamenei still holds this title on 2027-01-31; FALSE if replaced, resigned, or killed before then.", "deadline": "2027-02-03", "citations": [ 40, 103 ], "failure_condition": "Iranian state media or a wire service confirms Mojtaba Khamenei died, resigned, or was formally replaced as Supreme Leader before 2027-01-31.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-47", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:45.509904+00:00", "seal_sha256": "66ec7b2d8f3e50b84deccb75935509c566a4de8d025e665ce39debe90a52adea" }, { "statement": "The confirmed death toll from the 26 August 2026 Nepal-Tibet glacial flood disaster will exceed 1,000 people at some point between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-19.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 52, "resolution": "TRUE if the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority of Nepal or two of Reuters, AP, and AFP report a confirmed toll above 1,000 in the window; checked 2026-09-22; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 25, 38 ], "failure_condition": "No NDRRMA update or two-wire-service report states a confirmed death toll above 1,000 for this disaster by 2026-09-19.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-48", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:45.509912+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7106332037b4da4f892516b7f6f29b98519179c59cd89e0fdf41532ed5deff32" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds CVE-2026-82078 or CVE-2026-81578 with a date_added value between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-16.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 78, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog contains an entry for CVE-2026-82078 or CVE-2026-81578 carrying a dateAdded value between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-16 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-20", "citations": [ 15, 17 ], "failure_condition": "Neither PaperCut CVE carries a KEV dateAdded value inside that window when the catalog is fetched on 2026-10-20.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-49", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:46.345319+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1f521b63670621aee36f6ac2afe919beeeb0ca77549fdf96b27fbddbfbc4a432" }, { "statement": "Stolen City of Berlin administrative data is published on an extortion leak site between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 40, "resolution": "TRUE if at least two of BBC, Reuters, dpa, Tagesspiegel or Heise report that data taken from Berlin city systems was published by the extortion group in that window.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 13 ], "failure_condition": "No publication of Berlin municipal data by the extortionists is reported by two of the named outlets by 2026-11-04.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-50", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:46.345338+00:00", "seal_sha256": "477050b83e34070e800db3a6f820a5ab37cfeb34c922cf61c7d4adb259ebaf09" }, { "statement": "Front-month ICE Brent crude settles at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "economics", "probability": 22, "resolution": "TRUE if ICE publishes a front-month Brent futures settlement price of 100.00 USD or higher for any trading day inside that window.", "deadline": "2026-12-03", "citations": [ 64, 87 ], "failure_condition": "Every front-month Brent settlement in the window prints below 100.00 USD per barrel.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-51", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:46.345348+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b23a36a00f401f145f65141a8807e59917b8b372ccd090a0277cf4a1b87785e8" }, { "statement": "A petition for a writ of certiorari arising from the 2026-08-28 Ninth Circuit prediction-market ruling is docketed at the US Supreme Court between 2026-08-29 and 2027-02-13.", "domain": "political", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the Supreme Court electronic docket lists a certiorari petition naming Kalshi and Nevada gaming regulators, docketed on or before 2027-02-13.", "deadline": "2027-02-17", "citations": [ 117 ], "failure_condition": "No such certiorari petition appears on the Supreme Court docket on or before 2027-02-13.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-52", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:46.345357+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c47dc58c3b1b7327ee400dbdab639ecc26974f4fe01c3a8fdd0cd5488a4f9456" }, { "statement": "The Ukrainian Air Force reports at least 500 Russian drones and missiles launched in one overnight attack between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "military", "probability": 85, "resolution": "TRUE if a Ukrainian Air Force overnight air-situation report covering a night inside that window states a combined launch total of 500 or more munitions.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 76, 107 ], "failure_condition": "Every Ukrainian Air Force overnight tally in the window stays below 500 combined drones and missiles.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-53", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:46.345365+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f6eac4d979385ffca2a2d2ba1c32341d7fd3d5cb8db0e7e30027310ebb8924b0" }, { "statement": "The confirmed death toll in Nepal from the 2026-08-26 Rasuwa flood reaches at least 1000 between 2026-08-30 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 42, "resolution": "TRUE if Nepal Police or the NDRRMA give a confirmed Nepal death toll of 1000 or more inside that window, carried by two of Reuters, AP, AFP or BBC.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 25, 38, 42 ], "failure_condition": "The official Nepal death toll stays below 1000 through 2026-10-31.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-54", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:46.345371+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1406c0aa2eb5e06d84a405021420c08bbd246eb61ac334771169d90ede6fef18" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30, at least one Russian strike event in Kyiv city or Kyiv oblast kills 10 or more people according to Ukrainian state authorities.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 53, "resolution": "Ukrainian state authorities attribute 10 or more deaths to a single strike event in Kyiv city or oblast occurring between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30, carried by two international news agencies.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 71, 74, 76 ], "failure_condition": "No single strike event in Kyiv city or oblast between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30 is assigned 10 or more deaths in Ukrainian official counts.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5312, "n": 32, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-55", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:47.475430+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ed5027cf393bba24c8238d5eb99c6c13b5e992ae61f557cc2deeab5e63b5ddd2" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-30 and 2026-11-30, the US and Iranian governments both publicly confirm a specific round of direct or mediated negotiations, with venue or date named.", "domain": "political", "probability": 44, "resolution": "The US State Department or White House and the Iranian foreign ministry each publicly confirm a negotiation round with named venue or date occurring between 2026-08-30 and 2026-11-30, per two international outlets.", "deadline": "2026-12-03", "citations": [ 40, 87 ], "failure_condition": "By 2026-11-30 no negotiation round with named venue or date has been publicly confirmed by both governments.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4444, "n": 36, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-56", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:47.475451+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0cddc951922121101b4e44fddde69f5ab499a7e31cfe43bad664d76ead774266" }, { "statement": "By 2026-10-30, the combined official confirmed death toll from the August 2026 Nepal-Tibet glacial outburst floods, per Nepali and Chinese authorities, reaches at least 1,000.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 52, "resolution": "AP, Reuters, AFP, or BBC report official Nepali plus Chinese confirmed-dead figures for the August 2026 flood totaling 1,000 or more, dated on or before 2026-10-30.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 25, 38, 42 ], "failure_condition": "The latest official combined confirmed toll reported on or before 2026-10-30 stands below 1,000.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5172, "n": 29, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-57", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:47.475461+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fa47d433c7eababfb215b7c3f69fb7af6af35c993e4f94ca0fca5cc876f3708d" }, { "statement": "A PaperCut vulnerability is added to the CISA KEV catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-29 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog JSON contains at least one entry naming PaperCut with dateAdded between 2026-08-29 and 2026-09-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 15, 17 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV catalog fetched at the deadline contains no PaperCut entry with dateAdded inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 27, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-58", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:47.475470+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6130d0e4efee18c000bb8c2f9b7f023cc39d59b5788686f02b106885877f99ee" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above 95.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-27.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "Official ICE Brent front-month daily settlement prices show at least one settlement at or above 95.00 USD between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-27.", "deadline": "2026-12-01", "citations": [ 40, 60, 64 ], "failure_condition": "Every ICE Brent front-month settlement between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-27 is below 95.00 USD.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 20, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-59", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:47.475480+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d767aa358bc369101b43f4bdc40f9164f3e4039c9cd58dd2a2114e06057163b7" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-29 and 2026-11-30, Treasury OFAC publishes a new or amended Venezuela general license authorizing petroleum-sector transactions.", "domain": "political", "probability": 44, "resolution": "The OFAC Venezuela sanctions page carries a general license, new or amended, dated between 2026-08-29 and 2026-11-30, whose text authorizes petroleum-sector transactions.", "deadline": "2026-12-03", "citations": [ 64, 94, 118 ], "failure_condition": "No general license meeting the description with an issue date inside the window appears on the OFAC site.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4444, "n": 36, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-60", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:47.475487+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a2e5562f0ec07e151b1da44f6fd795ce055305860ae5142843ac78f6e37be369" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-31, US authorities remove Milo Yiannopoulos from the United States.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 43, "resolution": "Two international outlets, citing DHS, ICE, or court records, report Yiannopoulos removed or deported from the US on a date between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-31.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 69 ], "failure_condition": "Yiannopoulos remains in the United States, whether detained or released, through 2026-10-31.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4257, "n": 148, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-61", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:47.475495+00:00", "seal_sha256": "19cd466faf29d23c26fd91e3ee25804ec132e8533b77ec0f5b8b784380a1b219" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog will add an entry for CVE-2026-81578 or CVE-2026-82078, the actively exploited PaperCut NG/MF flaws, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-24.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog lists CVE-2026-81578 or CVE-2026-82078 with dateAdded inside the window, checked on 2026-10-26; FALSE if neither entry appears by then.", "deadline": "2026-10-26", "citations": [ 15, 17 ], "failure_condition": "Neither CVE-2026-81578 nor CVE-2026-82078 has a dateAdded entry in the CISA KEV catalog on or before 2026-10-24.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 27, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-62", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:48.308846+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2286474eb7c25782b618853eb69b1d03db62a139ddf590c419deea2512e43ea0" }, { "statement": "McKesson will file a document on SEC EDGAR, such as a Form 8-K/A or 10-Q, between 2026-09-05 and 2026-11-30 that states a specific number or bounded range of individuals affected by its August 2026 data theft incident.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if a McKesson SEC EDGAR filing dated in the window states a specific number or bounded range of affected individuals; FALSE if no such filing exists as of 2026-12-02.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 12 ], "failure_condition": "No McKesson filing on SEC EDGAR dated on or before 2026-11-30 states a specific number or bounded range of affected individuals.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 27, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-63", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:48.308869+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b731a61d542d66e950fc5073b7c1e362119d6039e4f5ac651dd73de0a99c3920" }, { "statement": "Serbia will hold its snap parliamentary election on 2026-10-25 rather than on 2026-10-18, the two dates floated by President Aleksandar Vucic.", "domain": "political", "probability": 44, "resolution": "TRUE if Serbian election authorities or two of Reuters, AP, and AFP confirm voting occurred on 2026-10-25; FALSE if the vote is held 2026-10-18 or not confirmed by 2026-10-28.", "deadline": "2026-10-28", "citations": [ 112 ], "failure_condition": "Voting for this election takes place on a date other than 2026-10-25, or remains unconfirmed as of 2026-10-28.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4444, "n": 36, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-64", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:48.308880+00:00", "seal_sha256": "11565ab0c3c819a54ad388c48f1a2d8f269282455d60f3cc1c74f5fb5e0ab5fc" }, { "statement": "A single Russian missile or drone strike will kill 10 or more people in Kyiv, Ukraine, between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-05.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 53, "resolution": "TRUE if Ukrainian officials and at least one of Reuters, AP, or AFP report 10 or more deaths from one strike on Kyiv in the window; checked 2026-10-07; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-10-07", "citations": [ 71, 76 ], "failure_condition": "No single strike on Kyiv in this window is confirmed by Ukrainian officials and a wire service to have killed 10 or more people.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5312, "n": 32, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-65", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:48.308889+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6c29f9f23510b12922d612208cbf93713e5df47a00bbf384f85c1d8fa1a84f6e" }, { "statement": "Mojtaba Khamenei will still publicly hold the title of Supreme Leader of Iran throughout the window from 2026-09-05 to 2027-01-31.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 53, "resolution": "TRUE if Iranian state media and at least one of Reuters or AP confirm Mojtaba Khamenei still holds this title on 2027-01-31; FALSE if replaced, resigned, or killed before then.", "deadline": "2027-02-03", "citations": [ 40, 103 ], "failure_condition": "Iranian state media or a wire service confirms Mojtaba Khamenei died, resigned, or was formally replaced as Supreme Leader before 2027-01-31.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5312, "n": 32, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-66", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:48.308896+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8cd7f65cb4e6f1871f0f90e9caf749e0b89952bdde538705670e5948d84b4491" }, { "statement": "The confirmed death toll from the 26 August 2026 Nepal-Tibet glacial flood disaster will exceed 1,000 people at some point between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-19.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 52, "resolution": "TRUE if the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority of Nepal or two of Reuters, AP, and AFP report a confirmed toll above 1,000 in the window; checked 2026-09-22; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 25, 38 ], "failure_condition": "No NDRRMA update or two-wire-service report states a confirmed death toll above 1,000 for this disaster by 2026-09-19.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5172, "n": 29, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-67", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:42:48.308905+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7106332037b4da4f892516b7f6f29b98519179c59cd89e0fdf41532ed5deff32" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds CVE-2026-82078 or CVE-2026-81578 with a date_added value between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-16.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog contains an entry for CVE-2026-82078 or CVE-2026-81578 carrying a dateAdded value between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-16 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-20", "citations": [ 15, 17 ], "failure_condition": "Neither PaperCut CVE carries a KEV dateAdded value inside that window when the catalog is fetched on 2026-10-20.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 27, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-68", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:46:19.074839+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b202b94162492e697846e08bd56456210b6cb05af9620fa7c490fa0f39021b1a" }, { "statement": "Stolen City of Berlin administrative data is published on an extortion leak site between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if at least two of BBC, Reuters, dpa, Tagesspiegel or Heise report that data taken from Berlin city systems was published by the extortion group in that window.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 13 ], "failure_condition": "No publication of Berlin municipal data by the extortionists is reported by two of the named outlets by 2026-11-04.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 27, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-69", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:46:19.074862+00:00", "seal_sha256": "127f31ed4da1a2fae8573e55f3c98eccd763a769ff7088afe83a7de45af9315f" }, { "statement": "Front-month ICE Brent crude settles at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "economics", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if ICE publishes a front-month Brent futures settlement price of 100.00 USD or higher for any trading day inside that window.", "deadline": "2026-12-03", "citations": [ 64, 87 ], "failure_condition": "Every front-month Brent settlement in the window prints below 100.00 USD per barrel.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 20, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-70", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:46:19.074874+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a9d1b7aae88ef2946d7a90002dcd1d01eb67cecc62733a8155a337f160cabe50" }, { "statement": "A petition for a writ of certiorari arising from the 2026-08-28 Ninth Circuit prediction-market ruling is docketed at the US Supreme Court between 2026-08-29 and 2027-02-13.", "domain": "political", "probability": 44, "resolution": "TRUE if the Supreme Court electronic docket lists a certiorari petition naming Kalshi and Nevada gaming regulators, docketed on or before 2027-02-13.", "deadline": "2027-02-17", "citations": [ 117 ], "failure_condition": "No such certiorari petition appears on the Supreme Court docket on or before 2027-02-13.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4444, "n": 36, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-71", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:46:19.074882+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5e9234f6ec8a82b1887111f6348656b3fa512df8029de583180889281c996bbc" }, { "statement": "The Ukrainian Air Force reports at least 500 Russian drones and missiles launched in one overnight attack between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "military", "probability": 53, "resolution": "TRUE if a Ukrainian Air Force overnight air-situation report covering a night inside that window states a combined launch total of 500 or more munitions.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 76, 107 ], "failure_condition": "Every Ukrainian Air Force overnight tally in the window stays below 500 combined drones and missiles.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5312, "n": 32, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-72", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:46:19.074891+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5d958a321429694bc76980d0ea0ee7c4c63dc4c2bbc13387fa00e8d312342d46" }, { "statement": "The confirmed death toll in Nepal from the 2026-08-26 Rasuwa flood reaches at least 1000 between 2026-08-30 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 52, "resolution": "TRUE if Nepal Police or the NDRRMA give a confirmed Nepal death toll of 1000 or more inside that window, carried by two of Reuters, AP, AFP or BBC.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 25, 38, 42 ], "failure_condition": "The official Nepal death toll stays below 1000 through 2026-10-31.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5172, "n": 29, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-29T21:42:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-73", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@5414a43d6a49470b", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T21:46:19.074899+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d904579834f05e87b651553e332a1c3bfbfcecc4fe846ce02ed0d9ad88a01291" }, { "statement": "Incumbent Edward Markey will win the Massachusetts Democratic US Senate primary held 2026-09-01, referenced in item 127.", "domain": "political", "probability": 58, "resolution": "True if the AP declares Markey the winner, or the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth official results show Markey with the most votes, checked at the deadline.", "deadline": "2026-09-04", "citations": [ 127 ], "failure_condition": "The AP or official state results show a different candidate received the most votes.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-28_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-74", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-28_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T22:43:35.833461+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9163b237d32bff8123cd0751fd320ad128db5391861c37e7ef1446d42d1eb4c4", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [127] carry the claim's operative terms (democratic, massachusett, primary, senate); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "The FOMC statement of 2026-09-16 leaves the federal funds target range at or above the pre-meeting range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 80, "resolution": "The Federal Reserve statement and implementation note dated 2026-09-16 show a target range equal to or higher than 3.50 to 3.75 percent.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 52, 67 ], "failure_condition": "The 2026-09-16 statement sets a target range below 3.50 to 3.75 percent.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-75", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T22:43:36.641209+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fc68b42df0f1b359bd2b48b42690de7155d3941ccf4c98c620a5a7a870f3125f" }, { "statement": "The Federal Open Market Committee will announce a lower federal funds target range at the conclusion of its September 15-16, 2026 meeting than the range set in July 2026.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 20, "resolution": "TRUE if the Federal Reserve statement released 2026-09-16 sets a federal funds target range below the range set after the July 2026 meeting; FALSE if held or raised.", "deadline": "2026-09-16", "citations": [ 67 ], "failure_condition": "The federal funds target range announced 2026-09-16 is equal to or higher than the range set after the July 2026 meeting.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-76", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T22:43:37.423182+00:00", "seal_sha256": "17928e4ba6fe0e95e9d615683abf45d910cec77b7393c31649e1d7730f62b9e1" }, { "statement": "At the scheduled 2026-09-16 FOMC decision the Committee raises the federal funds target range to 3.75 to 4.00 percent.", "domain": "economics", "probability": 52, "resolution": "TRUE if the FRED series DFEDTARU shows 4.00 for 2026-09-17, matching a 25 basis point increase announced in the 2026-09-16 FOMC statement.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 67 ], "failure_condition": "The upper bound of the target range holds at 3.75 percent or moves to any value other than 4.00 percent after the 2026-09-16 decision.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-77", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T22:43:38.215062+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6b99e963ed6a4856a2d909106d24cb192fe184418090707cdf706ed23c0aec95" }, { "statement": "The UK government announces activation of Operation Safeguard or a new prison early release measure between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-20.", "domain": "political", "probability": 58, "resolution": "TRUE if a gov.uk press release or written ministerial statement dated in that window announces Operation Safeguard activation, Operation Early Dawn, or a new early release scheme.", "deadline": "2026-11-24", "citations": [ 100 ], "failure_condition": "No gov.uk publication dated in the window announces any of those prison capacity measures.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-29_1537.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260829-78", "date_issued": "2026-08-29", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-29_1537.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-29T22:43:38.215082+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ec814060f7ec580f29c3ecea8b6f87346af3c8ce579dfb930e4a405810d54d25" }, { "statement": "A drone attack on Kyiv, Ukraine, resulting in at least one confirmed casualty, occurs between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-07.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 28, "resolution": "At least one confirmed casualty from a drone attack on Kyiv, Ukraine, is reported by at least two independent sources from different hostile sides (RU, UA, AXIS) within the event window, with the first report appearing no later than 2026-09-07.", "deadline": "2026-09-10", "citations": [ 1, 4, 7, 10 ], "failure_condition": "No report from at least two independently biased sources confirms a drone attack on Kyiv with at least one casualty during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260831-01", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T15:21:20.333144+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2f7c52d04dec1a3faedd0297522daaa79e50a0894f9fdb42b49eae67cbd85bb4", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [7] carry the claim's operative terms (hostile); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog includes at least one new exploited vulnerability with a public exploit between 2026-09-15 and 2026-09-22.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 45, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-09-15 and 2026-09-22 for at least one vulnerability that is marked as actively exploited in the wild.", "deadline": "2026-09-24", "citations": [ 18, 20 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog does not contain any new entries with a date-added value in the specified window.", "id": "KKR-20260831-02", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T15:21:20.333176+00:00", "seal_sha256": "027aebc12f37b09db378d048fe9b450cac1ccce6fda537f566736b4b0f6f85eb" }, { "statement": "Airstrikes on Gaza City, Gaza Strip, result in at least five confirmed civilian casualties between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 32, "resolution": "At least five confirmed civilian casualties from airstrikes on Gaza City are reported by at least two independent sources from different hostile sides (IL, PS, AXIS) within the event window, with the first report appearing no later than 2026-09-12.", "deadline": "2026-09-14", "citations": [ 2, 5, 8, 11 ], "failure_condition": "No report from at least two independently biased sources confirms five or more confirmed civilian casualties from airstrikes on Gaza City during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260831-03", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T15:21:20.333192+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2e49a4af92561d89e1c01d257c61a538f53b2d21ddb3e9fb554ea48d7800d29c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "lmstudio lane: the local arm cites the packet by item position, so the record it read is the packet itself; KEYED under the standing family ruling of 2026-08-15 (its keyless count cannot grow). The mechanical grounding test found no shared vocabulary with the cited item - the positional habit, not a claim of a keyless prior. Assistant-proposed, operator-adopted at import 2026-09-07.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "Iran launches a missile attack on a U.S. military installation in the Persian Gulf region between 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-17.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 22, "resolution": "A missile attack on a U.S. military installation in the Persian Gulf region is confirmed by at least two independent sources from different hostile sides (WEST, AXIS, RU) within the event window, with the first report appearing no later than 2026-09-17.", "deadline": "2026-09-20", "citations": [ 3, 6, 9, 12 ], "failure_condition": "No report from at least two independently biased sources confirms a missile attack on a U.S. military installation in the Persian Gulf region during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260831-04", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T15:21:20.333206+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3c9b5b6f46f81a5ed058b4bb682e56a1a2369aa5e7f541eabd2fd74b3e4ce65f" }, { "statement": "The S&P 500 index closes below 7,500.00 on at least one trading day between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 38, "resolution": "The closing value of the S&P 500 index, as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) or a major exchange, is below 7,500.00 on at least one trading day between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28.", "deadline": "2026-10-01", "citations": [ 53, 54, 55, 56 ], "failure_condition": "The S&P 500 index never closes below 7,500.00 on any trading day within the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260831-05", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T15:21:20.333219+00:00", "seal_sha256": "cbe5dcb4c2d921c52bad534ce40d688fcfd16e394da6764d26156fafa87bc0e2" }, { "statement": "A cyberattack exploiting a known vulnerability in Cisco routers, confirmed by CISA, occurs between 2026-09-18 and 2026-09-25.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 35, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog includes a vulnerability with a public exploit that is confirmed to have been used in a cyberattack against Cisco routers, with the first report of exploitation appearing between 2026-09-18 and 2026-09-25.", "deadline": "2026-09-27", "citations": [ 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 22 ], "failure_condition": "No confirmed cyberattack exploiting a known Cisco router vulnerability is reported by CISA or two independent sources within the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260831-06", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T15:21:20.333232+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3ecfd7bac899438c4f32770913ff5ae94222af61cf35a9fc9cf7b73607873b47" }, { "statement": "A major flash flood in Nepal results in at least 50 confirmed deaths between 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-08.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 25, "resolution": "At least 50 confirmed deaths from a flash flood in Nepal are reported by at least two independent sources from different hostile sides (PS, WEST, RU) within the event window, with the first report appearing no later than 2026-10-08.", "deadline": "2026-10-10", "citations": [ 25, 26, 27, 28, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48 ], "failure_condition": "No report from at least two independently biased sources confirms 50 or more confirmed deaths from a flash flood in Nepal during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260831-07", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T15:21:20.333244+00:00", "seal_sha256": "970283e9a718417da4254fa6395702a4777d429b40e3c3a606ffe9ceea46726f" }, { "statement": "A ransomware attack on a European government agency, confirmed by CISA or a national cybersecurity authority, occurs between 2026-10-20 and 2026-10-27.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 27, "resolution": "A ransomware attack on a European government agency is confirmed by at least two independent sources (CISA, national cybersecurity authority, or major wire service) with a public report confirming the attack between 2026-10-20 and 2026-10-27.", "deadline": "2026-10-29", "citations": [ 16, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48 ], "failure_condition": "No confirmed ransomware attack on a European government agency is reported by CISA or two independent sources within the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260831-08", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T15:21:20.333256+00:00", "seal_sha256": "cec70046558fed2b605d81eb6471b178e02c7582e5ea9e4c367f3c4193b2081a" }, { "statement": "The confirmed death toll from the Russian strike on a Ukrainian arms depot, reported at 38 on 2026-08-30, will be revised to 45 or higher by a Ukrainian official source or a major wire service between 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-13.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 27, "resolution": "TRUE if Ukrainian officials, Reuters, AP, or AFP report a toll of 45 or more from this depot strike between 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-13; otherwise FALSE at deadline.", "deadline": "2026-09-15", "citations": [ 77 ], "failure_condition": "The reported toll from this depot strike stays below 45 in all Ukrainian-official and wire-service reporting through 2026-09-13.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-09", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:08.694030+00:00", "seal_sha256": "37c3be4716be0a2e576547bc8dd746f6592f10cd618c68417245ad82be06f871" }, { "statement": "A commercial vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz will be attacked, seized, or forcibly diverted, as reported by UKMTO, Reuters, or AP, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 20, "resolution": "TRUE if UKMTO, Reuters, or AP report an attack, seizure, or forced diversion of a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz within the window; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 84 ], "failure_condition": "No commercial vessel is attacked, seized, or forcibly diverted in the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-10", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:08.694050+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d7072fef9bfa96572f6cb28f0dff8a0da1a5aabff8e13f229d184d6e22462f0a" }, { "statement": "Niger's military-led government will publicly announce formal charges or the opening of a court-martial against at least one soldier arrested in the late-August 2026 Niamey mutiny attempt, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-12.", "domain": "political", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if Niger's government, AFP, Reuters, or Al Jazeera report formal charges or a court-martial opened against at least one arrested soldier within the window; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-14", "citations": [ 70, 71 ], "failure_condition": "No formal charge or court-martial against any arrested soldier from this mutiny is announced between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-12.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-11", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:08.694060+00:00", "seal_sha256": "27dc54f595a6c05422ff8187fcc8818201b44523ed5346d28ed7b6342ea7cc36" }, { "statement": "Manchester Airports Group, the ICO, or two independent outlets will confirm a data breach matching FulcrumSec's claimed August 2026 theft of 86 GB of data, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-27.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 45, "resolution": "TRUE if MAG, the ICO, or two independent outlets confirm the breach, or verified stolen data surfaces on a leak marketplace, within the window; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 11 ], "failure_condition": "MAG issues no confirmation, the ICO records no notification, and no verified sample of the claimed data surfaces between 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-27.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-12", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:08.694068+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fa87f716786f11409785b8fad95f9c84e3b66ac6edfc33fe391c1010da9771a3" }, { "statement": "The Federal Register will publish a rule or notice modifying Section 232 steel or aluminum tariff treatment specifically naming Canada, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-13.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 32, "resolution": "TRUE if the Federal Register publishes a rule or notice modifying Section 232 steel or aluminum tariff treatment of Canada within the window; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-11-16", "citations": [ 49 ], "failure_condition": "No Federal Register rule or notice modifying Section 232 steel or aluminum tariff treatment of Canada is published between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-13.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-13", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:08.694077+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e5c0f875ec2960296288fa4637715665bf0b02dc14ac2aa830c4e76de4b2dacf" }, { "statement": "The US Treasury OFAC recent-actions list will show a new or amended Venezuela general or specific license implementing the 65 billion barrel oil deal announced in late August 2026, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-13.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if OFAC's published recent actions list carries a new or amended Venezuela license tied to this deal within the window; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-11-16", "citations": [ 60, 112 ], "failure_condition": "OFAC's recent actions list carries no new or amended Venezuela license tied to this deal between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-13.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-14", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:08.694084+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4b9473b527542550eba780c3aa0821e40897a90cc08785273ccb6b3c220ab2a9" }, { "statement": "The confirmed death toll from the Northern Cyprus ferry that capsized around 2026-08-30 with roughly 260 to 270 people aboard, six to seven confirmed dead as of 2026-08-30, will reach 15 or more per Cypriot, Turkish, or wire-service reporting, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-13.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 40, "resolution": "TRUE if Cypriot or Turkish officials, Reuters, or AP report 15 or more confirmed dead from this ferry capsizing within the window; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-15", "citations": [ 94, 100, 106 ], "failure_condition": "The confirmed death toll from this ferry capsizing stays below 15 in all official and wire-service reporting through 2026-09-13.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-15", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:08.694092+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b0129278eda2516d9eed2dc7c881795153db9c9fec2e50d3b6310226beba80f6" }, { "statement": "The confirmed death toll from the late-August 2026 Nepal-Tibet border floods and landslides, reported at approximately 750 with about 3000 still missing as of 2026-08-30, will exceed 900 per Nepali government or wire-service reporting, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-27.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 65, "resolution": "TRUE if Nepal's government, Reuters, AP, or AFP report a confirmed death toll above 900 from this flood and landslide event within the window; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 31, 37, 39 ], "failure_condition": "The confirmed death toll from this flood and landslide event stays at or below 900 in all official and wire-service reporting through 2026-09-27.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-16", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:08.694099+00:00", "seal_sha256": "37089278c4f3dff749ab692c87971411b7dce94472fa014cef44b74bbf4e47f9" }, { "statement": "German prosecutors will file a formal murder (Mord) charge, rather than a lesser homicide charge, against the suspect arrested for the fatal stabbing of a British woman at Rosenheim train station, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-12.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 38, "resolution": "TRUE if Bavarian prosecutors or a German wire service report a Mord charge specifically filed against the suspect within the window; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-14", "citations": [ 9 ], "failure_condition": "No Mord charge against the suspect is filed or reported between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-12; the case stays at arrest status or a lesser charge.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-17", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:08.694107+00:00", "seal_sha256": "32aa81555cb77a562ebd96ad310dcb131bb3819e9a015467c579ef92c0984e6d" }, { "statement": "The confirmed death toll from the Russian strike on a Ukrainian arms depot, reported at 38 on 2026-08-30, will be revised to 45 or higher by a Ukrainian official source or a major wire service between 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-13.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 53, "resolution": "TRUE if Ukrainian officials, Reuters, AP, or AFP report a toll of 45 or more from this depot strike between 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-13; otherwise FALSE at deadline.", "deadline": "2026-09-15", "citations": [ 77 ], "failure_condition": "The reported toll from this depot strike stays below 45 in all Ukrainian-official and wire-service reporting through 2026-09-13.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5312, "n": 32, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:08Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-18", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:10.357434+00:00", "seal_sha256": "682abd78d3cd9713c815cf5b172db4d1dcebd649efd5803d3516a06d59d531ec" }, { "statement": "A commercial vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz will be attacked, seized, or forcibly diverted, as reported by UKMTO, Reuters, or AP, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 53, "resolution": "TRUE if UKMTO, Reuters, or AP report an attack, seizure, or forced diversion of a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz within the window; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 84 ], "failure_condition": "No commercial vessel is attacked, seized, or forcibly diverted in the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5312, "n": 32, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:08Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-19", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:10.357455+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d4a4f1fc7aa5dfc53646d0ad014aa813e3447ecca70668bd4be0fa78b2114352" }, { "statement": "Niger's military-led government will publicly announce formal charges or the opening of a court-martial against at least one soldier arrested in the late-August 2026 Niamey mutiny attempt, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-12.", "domain": "political", "probability": 44, "resolution": "TRUE if Niger's government, AFP, Reuters, or Al Jazeera report formal charges or a court-martial opened against at least one arrested soldier within the window; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-14", "citations": [ 70, 71 ], "failure_condition": "No formal charge or court-martial against any arrested soldier from this mutiny is announced between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-12.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4444, "n": 36, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:08Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-20", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:10.357465+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a20ba4cb5158d58b8a3d02adcd0de8e82294440dfd71d1da9c6ee10c76ec36e9" }, { "statement": "Manchester Airports Group, the ICO, or two independent outlets will confirm a data breach matching FulcrumSec's claimed August 2026 theft of 86 GB of data, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-27.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if MAG, the ICO, or two independent outlets confirm the breach, or verified stolen data surfaces on a leak marketplace, within the window; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 11 ], "failure_condition": "MAG issues no confirmation, the ICO records no notification, and no verified sample of the claimed data surfaces between 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-27.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 27, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:08Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-21", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:10.357474+00:00", "seal_sha256": "381a41c859f20d8f1afb5871faba96d2d2bfe6a8d4957630b139580901f3141e" }, { "statement": "The Federal Register will publish a rule or notice modifying Section 232 steel or aluminum tariff treatment specifically naming Canada, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-13.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if the Federal Register publishes a rule or notice modifying Section 232 steel or aluminum tariff treatment of Canada within the window; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-11-16", "citations": [ 49 ], "failure_condition": "No Federal Register rule or notice modifying Section 232 steel or aluminum tariff treatment of Canada is published between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-13.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 20, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:08Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-22", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:10.357483+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1d0006139b3fa3d4ef3c4a4cb0c390a20d922af643d38b013fa788cb67831713" }, { "statement": "The US Treasury OFAC recent-actions list will show a new or amended Venezuela general or specific license implementing the 65 billion barrel oil deal announced in late August 2026, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-13.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if OFAC's published recent actions list carries a new or amended Venezuela license tied to this deal within the window; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-11-16", "citations": [ 60, 112 ], "failure_condition": "OFAC's recent actions list carries no new or amended Venezuela license tied to this deal between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-13.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 20, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:08Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-23", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:10.357490+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4b9473b527542550eba780c3aa0821e40897a90cc08785273ccb6b3c220ab2a9" }, { "statement": "The confirmed death toll from the Northern Cyprus ferry that capsized around 2026-08-30 with roughly 260 to 270 people aboard, six to seven confirmed dead as of 2026-08-30, will reach 15 or more per Cypriot, Turkish, or wire-service reporting, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-13.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 52, "resolution": "TRUE if Cypriot or Turkish officials, Reuters, or AP report 15 or more confirmed dead from this ferry capsizing within the window; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-15", "citations": [ 94, 100, 106 ], "failure_condition": "The confirmed death toll from this ferry capsizing stays below 15 in all official and wire-service reporting through 2026-09-13.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5172, "n": 29, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:08Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-24", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:10.357498+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8eb30aebaf8f6dea27f3e05c138ceab8355b5ed69a132572a249f9e55721fe9a" }, { "statement": "The confirmed death toll from the late-August 2026 Nepal-Tibet border floods and landslides, reported at approximately 750 with about 3000 still missing as of 2026-08-30, will exceed 900 per Nepali government or wire-service reporting, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-27.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 52, "resolution": "TRUE if Nepal's government, Reuters, AP, or AFP report a confirmed death toll above 900 from this flood and landslide event within the window; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 31, 37, 39 ], "failure_condition": "The confirmed death toll from this flood and landslide event stays at or below 900 in all official and wire-service reporting through 2026-09-27.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5172, "n": 29, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:08Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-25", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:10.357506+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a272be4368e649caf651caa617e3c61f53b0216117728d3c9a1a71985173a4f7" }, { "statement": "German prosecutors will file a formal murder (Mord) charge, rather than a lesser homicide charge, against the suspect arrested for the fatal stabbing of a British woman at Rosenheim train station, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-12.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 43, "resolution": "TRUE if Bavarian prosecutors or a German wire service report a Mord charge specifically filed against the suspect within the window; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-14", "citations": [ 9 ], "failure_condition": "No Mord charge against the suspect is filed or reported between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-12; the case stays at arrest status or a lesser charge.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4257, "n": 148, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:08Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-26", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:10.357514+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5431c777fb107b5bb56cc44a87e7568a9a6f564658470992367272853d8b0c03" }, { "statement": "A single Russian strike on Kyiv occurring between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-27 produces an official Ukrainian death toll of 10 or more for that one attack.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if, for one attack occurring between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-27, the State Emergency Service of Ukraine or the Kyiv City Military Administration states a death toll of 10 or more for that attack, and Reuters or AFP carries that figure by 2026-09-30. 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a denial, or a statement that only notes a third-party claim without confirming access, is a MISS.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-30", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:11.241831+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c58c29b49d2cbed3b06c47d0907670f4e4c0f649282bc53f4ff28f349d4ddd7f" }, { "statement": "The US Treasury daily par yield curve records a 10-year constant maturity yield of 5.00 percent or higher on at least one business day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-04.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if the Treasury daily par yield curve published at home.treasury.gov, or FRED series DGS10, shows a 10-year value of 5.00 or above on any business day from 2026-09-08 through 2026-12-04, checked on 2026-12-07.", "deadline": "2026-12-07", "citations": [ 42, 50 ], "failure_condition": "Every published 10-year par yield in the window is below 5.00 percent.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-31", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:11.241839+00:00", "seal_sha256": "74a872e36f0ed82b45f845d46100f32a907be8951f44356815ecc1e997858523" }, { "statement": "The confirmed cumulative death toll for the August 2026 Nepal-Tibet flood event reaches 1,000 or more in official figures issued between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-16.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 62, "resolution": "TRUE if a cumulative confirmed toll of 1,000 or more for this event, attributed to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority of Nepal, the Nepali Ministry of Home Affairs, or Chinese state authorities, is carried by at least two of Reuters, AFP, Al Jazeera, and the Guardian, dated on or before 2026-10-16 and verifiable by 2026-10-19. Missing-persons counts do not count toward the total.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 19, 31, 37 ], "failure_condition": "The highest official cumulative confirmed death toll for this event as of 2026-10-16 remains below 1,000.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-32", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:11.241847+00:00", "seal_sha256": "92aa09b21f703f5491ac729cb7b15a63f37f5d81c64e398f3e50592007883348" }, { "statement": "The Crown Prosecution Service announces a decision to bring criminal charges against at least one former undercover police officer in the undercover policing matter, between 2026-09-07 and 2027-01-29.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if the Crown Prosecution Service publishes a charging decision, or is reported by both the Guardian and BBC News to have made one, bringing criminal charges against at least one former undercover officer in connection with the undercover policing scandal, dated between 2026-09-07 and 2027-01-29 and verifiable by 2027-02-02.", "deadline": "2027-02-02", "citations": [ 10 ], "failure_condition": "No charging decision to prosecute a former undercover officer is made in the window, including a decision not to charge.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-33", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:11.241855+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1fcfbc7226d663e291927815034e55f4a9c3646ef4c76a5cb224c9520c6ecabe" }, { "statement": "A single Russian strike on Kyiv occurring between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-27 produces an official Ukrainian death toll of 10 or more for that one attack.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 53, "resolution": "TRUE if, for one attack occurring between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-27, the State Emergency Service of Ukraine or the Kyiv City Military Administration states a death toll of 10 or more for that attack, and Reuters or AFP carries that figure by 2026-09-30. 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This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-34", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:12.190890+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6e9de4833482a8d64019a5bfd7a871510e4b1b4e5bfb329bdea51d6f29453fc4" }, { "statement": "The individual serving as head of state of Niger on 2026-09-07 ceases to hold that office at some point between 2026-09-07 and 2026-12-06.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 53, "resolution": "TRUE if Reuters and AFP both report, by 2026-12-09, that the person serving as head of state of Niger on 2026-09-07 no longer holds that office as of any date on or before 2026-12-06, whether by removal, resignation, death, or transfer of power.", "deadline": "2026-12-09", "citations": [ 70, 71 ], "failure_condition": "The same individual is still serving as head of state of Niger on 2026-12-06.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5312, "n": 32, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:11Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-35", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:12.190910+00:00", "seal_sha256": "088123bad6e6d2fa964351952882138632831bf4e9a9c78bc6770cd3372d4c2f" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry naming WordPress or a WordPress plugin or theme, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-07 and 2026-11-06.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog JSON, fetched on 2026-11-09, contains at least one record whose vendorProject or product field references WordPress or a WordPress plugin or theme, and whose dateAdded falls between 2026-09-07 and 2026-11-06 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-09", "citations": [ 16 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV record carrying a dateAdded in that range references WordPress or a WordPress plugin or theme.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 27, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:11Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-36", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:12.190921+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f579f8ff1bc99faf16dc48d6dabd288f5ccf4d1e2441b63a74c94f455c5f636c" }, { "statement": "Manchester Airports Group confirms unauthorized access to its systems in an attributable statement issued between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-16.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if a named Manchester Airports Group spokesperson or an official company statement acknowledging unauthorized access to its systems or theft of its data is carried by at least two of BBC News, Reuters, and BleepingComputer, dated between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-16, and verifiable by 2026-10-19.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 11 ], "failure_condition": "Manchester Airports Group does not confirm unauthorized access in the window; a denial, or a statement that only notes a third-party claim without confirming access, is a MISS.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 27, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:11Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-37", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:12.190929+00:00", "seal_sha256": "be25885d1732be83fe15976496cbd81aaaa4b094fd012ff7775778fc81a563b2" }, { "statement": "The US Treasury daily par yield curve records a 10-year constant maturity yield of 5.00 percent or higher on at least one business day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-04.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if the Treasury daily par yield curve published at home.treasury.gov, or FRED series DGS10, shows a 10-year value of 5.00 or above on any business day from 2026-09-08 through 2026-12-04, checked on 2026-12-07.", "deadline": "2026-12-07", "citations": [ 42, 50 ], "failure_condition": "Every published 10-year par yield in the window is below 5.00 percent.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 20, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:11Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-38", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:12.190937+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0560d0d6a588f94a9666a22f3b90640535ab2871563ede110e56883e59523585" }, { "statement": "The confirmed cumulative death toll for the August 2026 Nepal-Tibet flood event reaches 1,000 or more in official figures issued between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-16.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 52, "resolution": "TRUE if a cumulative confirmed toll of 1,000 or more for this event, attributed to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority of Nepal, the Nepali Ministry of Home Affairs, or Chinese state authorities, is carried by at least two of Reuters, AFP, Al Jazeera, and the Guardian, dated on or before 2026-10-16 and verifiable by 2026-10-19. Missing-persons counts do not count toward the total.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 19, 31, 37 ], "failure_condition": "The highest official cumulative confirmed death toll for this event as of 2026-10-16 remains below 1,000.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5172, "n": 29, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:11Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-39", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:12.190944+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f8dd5402f44c8c26a54d13326f4618267173e634a5f55fa97eb61ea41951c59b" }, { "statement": "The Crown Prosecution Service announces a decision to bring criminal charges against at least one former undercover police officer in the undercover policing matter, between 2026-09-07 and 2027-01-29.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 43, "resolution": "TRUE if the Crown Prosecution Service publishes a charging decision, or is reported by both the Guardian and BBC News to have made one, bringing criminal charges against at least one former undercover officer in connection with the undercover policing scandal, dated between 2026-09-07 and 2027-01-29 and verifiable by 2027-02-02.", "deadline": "2027-02-02", "citations": [ 10 ], "failure_condition": "No charging decision to prosecute a former undercover officer is made in the window, including a decision not to charge.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4257, "n": 148, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:11Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-40", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:12.190952+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5af18c4a2e916fa7ffbaa501556701f898ea0d5466befd97ec59f646f8a0521d" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry for a WordPress plugin or theme vulnerability with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-31 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if a fetch of the CISA KEV JSON feed on the deadline shows any entry whose product or name field identifies a WordPress plugin or theme and whose dateAdded falls between 2026-08-31 and 2026-11-30.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 16 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV feed fetched on 2026-12-04 contains no WordPress plugin or theme entry with dateAdded inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-41", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:13.051295+00:00", "seal_sha256": "99b28746ab432c199ce34c1559efa3b8da4dae2f6ebf7de779b37d1ec098a8f8" }, { "statement": "The S&P 500 index records an official daily close below 7000.00 on at least one trading day between 2026-09-01 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if official S&P Dow Jones Indices closing values show any daily close strictly below 7000.00 for a trading date between 2026-09-01 and 2026-12-31.", "deadline": "2027-01-06", "citations": [ 50, 56, 115 ], "failure_condition": "Every official S&P 500 daily close in the window is at or above 7000.00.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-42", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:13.051314+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e18e349aeb955e70bf60dc92962a9d6abde647da400cc6b5e441a73dd6fad2b7" }, { "statement": "The Federal Register publishes at least one presidential proclamation or executive order modifying United States tariff treatment of Canadian-origin goods with a publication date between 2026-09-01 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 65, "resolution": "TRUE if a federalregister.gov search returns a presidential document published between 2026-09-01 and 2026-12-31 that modifies tariff rates, coverage, or refunds applying to goods of Canadian origin.", "deadline": "2027-01-08", "citations": [ 49, 54, 59 ], "failure_condition": "No presidential document meeting the tariff-modification and Canadian-origin criteria carries a Federal Register publication date inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-43", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:13.051324+00:00", "seal_sha256": "594be2a4775b5076b503cea48144efdc2978073e378d23ad0a5dcc41854c0b04" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-31 and 2026-11-30, the head of state of Niger is removed, replaced, or announces resignation, or a new military takeover of the government is completed.", "domain": "political", "probability": 15, "resolution": "TRUE if at least two of Reuters, AFP, BBC, Al Jazeera, or RFI report a completed change of head of state or completed military takeover in Niger occurring between 2026-08-31 and 2026-11-30.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 70, 71 ], "failure_condition": "The incumbent head of state remains in office through 2026-11-30 and no completed takeover meeting the corroboration standard occurred in the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-44", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:13.051332+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d47b6be4d9e43fd7669c1e345f00e84afe846015d5a7c7fbb32e761709f32331" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-31 and 2026-11-30, a commercial vessel transiting or anchored in the Strait of Hormuz or its approaches is struck by weapons fire or seized.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if UKMTO issues an incident advisory, or at least two of Reuters, AP, or AFP report a strike on or seizure of a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz area between 2026-08-31 and 2026-11-30.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 84 ], "failure_condition": "No qualifying strike or seizure in the Hormuz area occurs within the window under the stated adjudication standard.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-45", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:13.051339+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5e60a2b39bf338c435624b7212c474c2bf7e3b5e04689c0a6ad2f10a8981ce91" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30, at least one Russian missile or drone strike inside Ukraine kills 10 or more people in a single attack, per official Ukrainian figures.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 80, "resolution": "TRUE if at least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, or BBC report an official Ukrainian death toll of 10 or more from a single Russian strike occurring between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 77 ], "failure_condition": "No single strike in the September window carries an official reported toll of 10 or more.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-46", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:13.051347+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1c2931d9e7ca2e9b683b389d001e7ae3582530f30e6743c725c05b1f2a33b987" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry for a WordPress plugin or theme vulnerability with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-31 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if a fetch of the CISA KEV JSON feed on the deadline shows any entry whose product or name field identifies a WordPress plugin or theme and whose dateAdded falls between 2026-08-31 and 2026-11-30.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 16 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV feed fetched on 2026-12-04 contains no WordPress plugin or theme entry with dateAdded inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 27, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:13Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-47", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:13.962365+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8a686c270f48ffc1ed7216e828ecb6b6fae26d56ba2d9802295f3ec3b6e2e8ef" }, { "statement": "The S&P 500 index records an official daily close below 7000.00 on at least one trading day between 2026-09-01 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if official S&P Dow Jones Indices closing values show any daily close strictly below 7000.00 for a trading date between 2026-09-01 and 2026-12-31.", "deadline": "2027-01-06", "citations": [ 50, 56, 115 ], "failure_condition": "Every official S&P 500 daily close in the window is at or above 7000.00.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 20, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:13Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-48", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:13.962384+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e18e349aeb955e70bf60dc92962a9d6abde647da400cc6b5e441a73dd6fad2b7" }, { "statement": "The Federal Register publishes at least one presidential proclamation or executive order modifying United States tariff treatment of Canadian-origin goods with a publication date between 2026-09-01 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if a federalregister.gov search returns a presidential document published between 2026-09-01 and 2026-12-31 that modifies tariff rates, coverage, or refunds applying to goods of Canadian origin.", "deadline": "2027-01-08", "citations": [ 49, 54, 59 ], "failure_condition": "No presidential document meeting the tariff-modification and Canadian-origin criteria carries a Federal Register publication date inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 20, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:13Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-49", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:13.962394+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e3d46e524ecac07db1dd0664019f944149ef5882418f01a33de0222e098d9463" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-31 and 2026-11-30, the head of state of Niger is removed, replaced, or announces resignation, or a new military takeover of the government is completed.", "domain": "political", "probability": 44, "resolution": "TRUE if at least two of Reuters, AFP, BBC, Al Jazeera, or RFI report a completed change of head of state or completed military takeover in Niger occurring between 2026-08-31 and 2026-11-30.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 70, 71 ], "failure_condition": "The incumbent head of state remains in office through 2026-11-30 and no completed takeover meeting the corroboration standard occurred in the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4444, "n": 36, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:13Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-50", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:13.962402+00:00", "seal_sha256": "16709bc65700e269b8943136026267e48fcbd0fffdb985f84f08f7ed0d28dd50" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-31 and 2026-11-30, a commercial vessel transiting or anchored in the Strait of Hormuz or its approaches is struck by weapons fire or seized.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 53, "resolution": "TRUE if UKMTO issues an incident advisory, or at least two of Reuters, AP, or AFP report a strike on or seizure of a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz area between 2026-08-31 and 2026-11-30.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 84 ], "failure_condition": "No qualifying strike or seizure in the Hormuz area occurs within the window under the stated adjudication standard.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5312, "n": 32, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:13Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-51", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:13.962409+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a536e9229a5048f4cbbb7eddede2a8f75a46f305ce015043339a1628ab3dbe26" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30, at least one Russian missile or drone strike inside Ukraine kills 10 or more people in a single attack, per official Ukrainian figures.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 53, "resolution": "TRUE if at least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, or BBC report an official Ukrainian death toll of 10 or more from a single Russian strike occurring between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 77 ], "failure_condition": "No single strike in the September window carries an official reported toll of 10 or more.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5312, "n": 32, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:13Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-52", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:13.962415+00:00", "seal_sha256": "63f758f7ce5f3d54143e091ca6b0c1af489cdd4e47a1448fbe28b80e9524ffb5" }, { "statement": "US Central Command announces at least one new strike on Iranian forces, vessels, or territory occurring between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 80, "resolution": "A CENTCOM release or two of Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera report a US strike on Iranian forces or territory dated between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 61, 76, 82 ], "failure_condition": "No US strike on Iranian forces, vessels, or territory occurs inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-53", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:31.192275+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c910622e3fbd10b6771ae10cc7e48271c8d31119f28efa8a86f0cbad06edd296" }, { "statement": "A US or Gulf state authority publicly reports a naval mine detected, struck, or cleared in the Strait of Hormuz or its approaches between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 35, "resolution": "CENTCOM, the US Navy, or a Gulf state navy states that a mine was found, struck, or cleared in 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This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-66", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:32.115643+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e688c8c77a78863eca5315e2bfaee6c279e2ae92afdc5c1a9c5b1a0f86801b44" }, { "statement": "German authorities name a suspect, announce an arrest, or announce a warrant in the Leipzig drone attack between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 43, "resolution": "The Generalbundesanwalt, the BKA, or Saxony police state that a suspect is named, arrested, or subject to a warrant in the Leipzig drone case within the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-20", "citations": [ 101 ], "failure_condition": "No suspect is named, arrested, or made subject to an announced warrant in the case during the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4257, "n": 148, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:31Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-67", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:32.115650+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c3c990974aabcac695c71ac4535b61ad3bcadac13838b8ae346fc463cf3735fb" }, { "statement": "Ukrenergo or DTEK announces emergency or rolling power cuts affecting Kyiv city on at least one day between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 52, "resolution": "An Ukrenergo or DTEK notice dated inside the window states that emergency or rolling outage schedules apply to consumers in Kyiv city.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 36 ], "failure_condition": "Kyiv city consumers face no announced emergency or rolling outage schedule on any day inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5172, "n": 29, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:31Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-68", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:32.115657+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c4aafffdab2ebab7d1e842f2175be4c41dc9032dc2a1c8e63e62cccc0334fd46" }, { "statement": "A commercial or military vessel is struck, mined, or seized in or near the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-14.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 45, "resolution": "Resolves true if UKMTO, JMIC, Reuters, or AP report a vessel struck, mined, boarded, or seized in the Strait of Hormuz within the window; false if no such report appears by the deadline.", "deadline": "2026-09-16", "citations": [ 61, 82, 88, 95 ], "failure_condition": "No UKMTO, JMIC, or wire-service report confirms a vessel attack, mining, or seizure in the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-14.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-69", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:32.941259+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5277beb152a173bc9b76466e10ce7070e5c95accf822cef05f3789ca48196b40" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above USD 95.00 per barrel on any session between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-21.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 30, "resolution": "Resolves true if ICE, Reuters, or Bloomberg data show a Brent front-month settlement at or above USD 95.00 on any trading day in the window; false if no such settlement occurs.", "deadline": "2026-09-23", "citations": [ 53, 61 ], "failure_condition": "Brent front-month crude does not settle at or above USD 95.00 per barrel on any trading day between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-21.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-70", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:32.941281+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9414f68fe94126d84c98805e7a0a84f394c855c4987a6da503ccf5991d74a1f5" }, { "statement": "CISA or the FBI publishes an advisory formally attributing the Fire Ant intrusion campaign against Cisco network devices to a China-linked actor, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "Resolves true if CISA.gov or FBI.gov publishes an advisory naming a China-linked actor as responsible for the Fire Ant Cisco-targeting campaign within the window; false if no such advisory appears.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 13, 22 ], "failure_condition": "Neither CISA nor the FBI publishes an advisory formally attributing the Fire Ant Cisco-router campaign to a China-linked actor between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-71", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:32.941292+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4bd270b1cf5b4c04ad4b05131b35ca841d8596b8875be628dc65342514a5fa4e" }, { "statement": "Nepal's government or GDACS reports a cumulative confirmed death toll of 100 or more from the late-August 2026 flood, landslide, and hydropower-site disaster, as of 2026-09-14.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 40, "resolution": "Resolves true if Nepal's government or GDACS reports a confirmed cumulative death toll of 100 or more from the event as of 2026-09-14; false if the reported toll remains below 100.", "deadline": "2026-09-16", "citations": [ 26, 37, 106 ], "failure_condition": "The confirmed cumulative death toll reported by Nepal's government or GDACS for this flood and landslide disaster remains below 100 as of 2026-09-14.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-72", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:32.941303+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3b74ed38ae8521a9385637a1e44bb0dd09c072b47bb414cafd159191413ca75a" }, { "statement": "Cypriot or Turkish-Cypriot authorities declare the search for the missing passengers of the northern Cyprus ferry capsize concluded, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-10.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 65, "resolution": "Resolves true if Cypriot, Turkish-Cypriot, or wire-service reporting confirms the ferry capsize search ended, by rescue, recovery, or stand-down, within the window; false if the search remains active past 2026-09-10.", "deadline": "2026-09-14", "citations": [ 93, 119 ], "failure_condition": "Cypriot, Turkish-Cypriot, or wire-service reporting shows the ferry capsize search still formally active, with outcomes unconfirmed, past 2026-09-10.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-73", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:32.941311+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8e2a8d7ea964233c9a8ed584adf881d6bdbce6f1174be5c7281cae3f10fd01ac", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [93, 119] carry the claim's operative terms (capsize, ferry, missing, northern, rescue, search); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "German federal or state authorities publicly name a suspect or announce charges in the Leipzig drone attack on a Ukrainian-linked aircraft, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-21.", "domain": "political", "probability": 55, "resolution": "Resolves true if German federal or state prosecutors or police publicly name a suspect or announce charges in the Leipzig drone-attack case within the window; false if no naming occurs.", "deadline": "2026-09-23", "citations": [ 101 ], "failure_condition": "No German federal or state authority publicly names a suspect or announces charges in the Leipzig drone-attack case between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-21.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-74", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:32.941319+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3ae68444f0a3ec4e6335dbd4befca1c0ef3546da85928520d5433e2fe70f0b64" }, { "statement": "A further attempt to seize power from Niger's sitting government by military or paramilitary action occurs between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 15, "resolution": "Resolves true if AP, Reuters, AFP, or Niger state media report a further attempted seizure of power against the sitting government within the window; false if no such attempt is reported.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 94 ], "failure_condition": "No wire-service or Niger state-media report of a further coup attempt against the sitting government appears between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-75", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:32.941327+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1f70bb029a4737156e75c8f4336f104614ccacd82e9898062ac080128a1a95f4" }, { "statement": "A commercial or military vessel is struck, mined, or seized in or near the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-14.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 53, "resolution": "Resolves true if UKMTO, JMIC, Reuters, or AP report a vessel struck, mined, boarded, or seized in the Strait of Hormuz within the window; false if no such report appears by the deadline.", "deadline": "2026-09-16", "citations": [ 61, 82, 88, 95 ], "failure_condition": "No UKMTO, JMIC, or wire-service report confirms a vessel attack, mining, or seizure in the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-14.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5312, "n": 32, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:32Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-76", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:33.891810+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ab112a1228f2d95ba7aa4b22e257c38e5db5e4f45009dcc4ca0eeb378099216d" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above USD 95.00 per barrel on any session between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-21.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 25, "resolution": "Resolves true if ICE, Reuters, or Bloomberg data show a Brent front-month settlement at or above USD 95.00 on any trading day in the window; false if no such settlement occurs.", "deadline": "2026-09-23", "citations": [ 53, 61 ], "failure_condition": "Brent front-month crude does not settle at or above USD 95.00 per barrel on any trading day between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-21.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 20, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:32Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-77", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:33.891830+00:00", "seal_sha256": "778c41eb1e3a9daf252ea1f02e6653a44c7d3dbee5d217a192be9a03328ceedd" }, { "statement": "CISA or the FBI publishes an advisory formally attributing the Fire Ant intrusion campaign against Cisco network devices to a China-linked actor, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "Resolves true if CISA.gov or FBI.gov publishes an advisory naming a China-linked actor as responsible for the Fire Ant Cisco-targeting campaign within the window; false if no such advisory appears.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 13, 22 ], "failure_condition": "Neither CISA nor the FBI publishes an advisory formally attributing the Fire Ant Cisco-router campaign to a China-linked actor between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 27, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:32Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-78", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:33.891840+00:00", "seal_sha256": "610758288cb813eba2bcad4e05487d7d1b0ae221beae8eba57110b4a18e88201" }, { "statement": "Nepal's government or GDACS reports a cumulative confirmed death toll of 100 or more from the late-August 2026 flood, landslide, and hydropower-site disaster, as of 2026-09-14.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 52, "resolution": "Resolves true if Nepal's government or GDACS reports a confirmed cumulative death toll of 100 or more from the event as of 2026-09-14; false if the reported toll remains below 100.", "deadline": "2026-09-16", "citations": [ 26, 37, 106 ], "failure_condition": "The confirmed cumulative death toll reported by Nepal's government or GDACS for this flood and landslide disaster remains below 100 as of 2026-09-14.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5172, "n": 29, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:32Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-79", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:33.891850+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d02a435b2e475690c0822c12876ea21a5c196b9b29e8c22e18300486d63794da" }, { "statement": "Cypriot or Turkish-Cypriot authorities declare the search for the missing passengers of the northern Cyprus ferry capsize concluded, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-10.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 52, "resolution": "Resolves true if Cypriot, Turkish-Cypriot, or wire-service reporting confirms the ferry capsize search ended, by rescue, recovery, or stand-down, within the window; false if the search remains active past 2026-09-10.", "deadline": "2026-09-14", "citations": [ 93, 119 ], "failure_condition": "Cypriot, Turkish-Cypriot, or wire-service reporting shows the ferry capsize search still formally active, with outcomes unconfirmed, past 2026-09-10.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5172, "n": 29, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:32Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-80", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:33.891857+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f495c753024f05d84700a6ed52801d52270a4ef7265d6414bcdb390e3f383f7e", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "German federal or state authorities publicly name a suspect or announce charges in the Leipzig drone attack on a Ukrainian-linked aircraft, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-21.", "domain": "political", "probability": 44, "resolution": "Resolves true if German federal or state prosecutors or police publicly name a suspect or announce charges in the Leipzig drone-attack case within the window; false if no naming occurs.", "deadline": "2026-09-23", "citations": [ 101 ], "failure_condition": "No German federal or state authority publicly names a suspect or announces charges in the Leipzig drone-attack case between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-21.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4444, "n": 36, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:32Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-81", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:33.891864+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6ee861386cee2c2f868e6dcd8d9329c108ec082a56b57a679a51869b34eb00c9" }, { "statement": "A further attempt to seize power from Niger's sitting government by military or paramilitary action occurs between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 53, "resolution": "Resolves true if AP, Reuters, AFP, or Niger state media report a further attempted seizure of power against the sitting government within the window; false if no such attempt is reported.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 94 ], "failure_condition": "No wire-service or Niger state-media report of a further coup attempt against the sitting government appears between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5312, "n": 32, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:32Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-82", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:33.891871+00:00", "seal_sha256": "04c26332eab64d04dab33c15778be9313afedc3a271ed28256b4b7f7b3f4a783" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog carries at least 8 entries with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 90, "resolution": "True if a fetch of the CISA KEV catalog on or after the deadline shows 8 or more entries whose dateAdded falls between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 18 ], "failure_condition": "Fewer than 8 KEV entries carry a dateAdded value between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30 inclusive.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-83", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:34.716722+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d33bfe858551365df00bd862c83d68748125a75fdde65a77ef76498c0250f5b1" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above 95.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 55, "resolution": "True if any official ICE Brent front-month daily settlement price between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-30 is at or above 95.00 USD; exchange settlement records govern.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 53, 61, 88 ], "failure_condition": "Every ICE Brent front-month daily settlement between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-30 is below 95.00 USD.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-84", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:34.716744+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5e2212c95251e0395000530d5114072c2c5be980e3e48d237c18d2c2477066e5" }, { "statement": "The Nepal government confirmed death toll from the August 2026 flood disaster reaches at least 300 at any point between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 45, "resolution": "True if Nepali government statements carried by at least two international news agencies place the confirmed dead at 300 or more on any date between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-30.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 37, 106 ], "failure_condition": "The cumulative Nepal government confirmed death toll remains below 300 through 2026-10-30.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-85", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:34.716755+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9f14a9e53a740798479b6d46358d98ca4864d120319caed086c65426261b1191" }, { "statement": "Democratic candidates win at least 218 seats in the United States House of Representatives in the general election held 2026-11-03.", "domain": "political", "probability": 70, "resolution": "True if Associated Press race calls as of the deadline show Democratic candidates winning 218 or more House seats from the 2026-11-03 general election.", "deadline": "2026-12-01", "citations": [ 99, 121 ], "failure_condition": "Democratic candidates win fewer than 218 House seats in the 2026-11-03 election as called by the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-86", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:34.716764+00:00", "seal_sha256": "469228c0d5a95bdab6851c2f4eb1fe9b76e535c4e9f7a812d1da6f5a9c98965b" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry with vendorProject Cisco and a dateAdded value between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 50, "resolution": "True if the KEV catalog contains an entry whose vendorProject value is Cisco and whose dateAdded falls between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 13, 18, 22 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry with vendorProject Cisco carries a dateAdded between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-87", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:34.716771+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1679f912a2a697df0c009277e5a8e630072c8f0ff57d0dfd08da20baeab8a84a" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog carries at least 8 entries with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "True if a fetch of the CISA KEV catalog on or after the deadline shows 8 or more entries whose dateAdded falls between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 18 ], "failure_condition": "Fewer than 8 KEV entries carry a dateAdded value between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30 inclusive.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 27, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-88", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:35.647661+00:00", "seal_sha256": "eb5efbfb47a41b6cd9da44f89835298506f54f907159598a2baee01fb8b229ad" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above 95.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "True if any official ICE Brent front-month daily settlement price between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-30 is at or above 95.00 USD; exchange settlement records govern.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 53, 61, 88 ], "failure_condition": "Every ICE Brent front-month daily settlement between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-30 is below 95.00 USD.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 20, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-89", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:35.647683+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d081bac9ddb25fa3fea4776853df2cfd0da423c5fa380f48292daf1a96be1ffb" }, { "statement": "The Nepal government confirmed death toll from the August 2026 flood disaster reaches at least 300 at any point between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 52, "resolution": "True if Nepali government statements carried by at least two international news agencies place the confirmed dead at 300 or more on any date between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-30.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 37, 106 ], "failure_condition": "The cumulative Nepal government confirmed death toll remains below 300 through 2026-10-30.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5172, "n": 29, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-90", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:35.647696+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3507efef14ba3860f09dcdb9a709085077f32e8d13725d07d39683f6951d89b7" }, { "statement": "Democratic candidates win at least 218 seats in the United States House of Representatives in the general election held 2026-11-03.", "domain": "political", "probability": 44, "resolution": "True if Associated Press race calls as of the deadline show Democratic candidates winning 218 or more House seats from the 2026-11-03 general election.", "deadline": "2026-12-01", "citations": [ 99, 121 ], "failure_condition": "Democratic candidates win fewer than 218 House seats in the 2026-11-03 election as called by the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4444, "n": 36, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-91", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:35.647704+00:00", "seal_sha256": "317f87df5ce4b4a32a76a765cdb3056e3a9c00acd7dc664dbf032f6d7a0a12a1" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry with vendorProject Cisco and a dateAdded value between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "True if the KEV catalog contains an entry whose vendorProject value is Cisco and whose dateAdded falls between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 13, 18, 22 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry with vendorProject Cisco carries a dateAdded between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 27, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-08-31T23:01:34Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "4ea5ab8f6a401aed91530b7eb3d4fc0ae5bb9fdf18ea8ebf6bbd1efb3052299c", "id": "KKR-20260831-92", "date_issued": "2026-08-31", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@83248bca2ddb1c36", "sealed_at": "2026-08-31T23:01:35.647712+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2b1a8c40c8825b0e6c6b643a111603fc0bfc9bcfd7e775c9f413baad99a53ebf" }, { "statement": "The Federal Register publishes at least one Presidential Document adjusting duties on steel or aluminum imports into the United States, with a publication date between 2026-09-08 and 2026-11-06.", "domain": "political", "probability": 45, "resolution": "TRUE if federalregister.gov lists at least one document of type Presidential Document, published between 2026-09-08 and 2026-11-06 inclusive, whose title or subject references adjusting imports of steel or aluminum into the United States, checked on 2026-11-10.", "deadline": "2026-11-10", "citations": [ 49, 54, 59 ], "failure_condition": "No Presidential Document adjusting steel or aluminum import duties carries a Federal Register publication date inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260901-01", "date_issued": "2026-09-01", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-01T02:13:11.139907+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e3eba9ab21a5e349b9da090992038c41a56f8e26557fdc7e1a5caf4e3f6c1975" }, { "statement": "A lapse in federal appropriations begins 2026-10-01 because no measure funding agencies past 2026-09-30 is enacted.", "domain": "political", "probability": 22, "resolution": "Congress.gov shows no continuing resolution or appropriations act funding federal agencies past 2026-09-30 signed into law on or before 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 99, 34 ], "failure_condition": "A continuing resolution or appropriations act covering federal agencies past 2026-09-30 becomes public law on or before that date.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260901-02", "date_issued": "2026-09-01", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-01T02:13:11.955580+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a5f1b2bc1d454cdb9e6411c53d205fdcf1628aefeb4f8e439990d6ef51f02ae4" }, { "statement": "The FOMC raises the federal funds target range at its scheduled 2026-09-16 decision, above the current 3.50 to 3.75 percent.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The FOMC statement released 2026-09-16 sets a target range whose upper bound exceeds 3.75 percent.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 71 ], "failure_condition": "The 2026-09-16 statement holds the range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent or cuts it.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260901-03", "date_issued": "2026-09-01", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-01T02:13:11.955601+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5c68660142fae888364b1bbc54b4f2731b20d828c7d8513b1e01f561d6bebded" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog records 3 or more entries with dateAdded between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-14.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 78, "resolution": "Resolves true if the published CISA KEV catalog feed shows 3 or more entries with dateAdded in the window when checked at the deadline; false if it shows fewer than 3.", "deadline": "2026-09-16", "citations": [ 18 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog shows fewer than 3 entries with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-14 when checked against the published feed.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260901-04", "date_issued": "2026-09-01", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-01T02:13:12.744624+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5a38821af6b8d3d6663cd3b4d33a7d7d704639e82c2538b5d059d53247ffa5de" }, { "statement": "The Federal Open Market Committee raises the federal funds target range at its September 15-16, 2026 meeting.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 12, "resolution": "Resolves true if the FOMC statement released 2026-09-16 sets the federal funds target range above the range in effect the day before the meeting; false if held or cut.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 71 ], "failure_condition": "The FOMC holds or lowers the federal funds target range at its September 15-16, 2026 meeting rather than raising it.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260901-05", "date_issued": "2026-09-01", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-01T02:13:12.744643+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6615486f974a2624f1a38c149bafc31713e58b90b6a7c8faa434efe29ed86154" }, { "statement": "The FOMC decision announced 2026-09-16 raises the federal funds target range above the range in effect on 2026-09-15.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 30, "resolution": "True if the Federal Reserve implementation note or FRED series DFEDTARU shows a target range effective after the 2026-09-16 decision higher than the range in effect on 2026-09-15; false if unchanged or lower.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 71 ], "failure_condition": "The federal funds target range effective after the 2026-09-16 decision is unchanged from or lower than the range in effect on 2026-09-15.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "notes": "", "id": "KKR-20260901-06", "date_issued": "2026-09-01", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-01T02:13:13.531166+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a233a383b5a9efeb01de5d993d0140ea6e81ced35473d49feb76c357603e92a6" }, { "statement": "A lapse in United States federal appropriations begins on 2026-10-01, with agency shutdown procedures taking effect that day.", "domain": "political", "probability": 30, "resolution": "True if no enacted appropriations act or continuing resolution covers 2026-10-01 and OMB directs agencies to execute shutdown plans that day; Congress.gov enacted-legislation records govern.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 34, 99 ], "failure_condition": "Enacted appropriations or a continuing resolution covers 2026-10-01 and no agency executes OMB-directed shutdown procedures that day.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260901-07", "date_issued": "2026-09-01", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-01T02:13:13.531187+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3944932972e44116aca8f24c107a1e874efa539769bff7e0f20db779e711a428" }, { "statement": "Commercial shipping transit through the Strait of Hormuz is suspended for at least 48 consecutive hours at any point between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 12, "resolution": "True if at least two international wire services, citing shipping authorities or maritime insurers, report a suspension of commercial Strait of Hormuz transits lasting 48 or more consecutive hours between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-31.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 61, 88 ], "failure_condition": "Commercial Strait of Hormuz transits continue between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-31 without any suspension reaching 48 consecutive hours.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-31_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260901-08", "date_issued": "2026-09-01", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-31_1519.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-01T02:13:13.531197+00:00", "seal_sha256": "21d77f3eb88356eea6b8c682089041b8ed5c88541fe0b23816efeb06a0f70721" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-16, Manchester Airports Group or a UK government body publicly confirms unauthorized access to MAG systems in connection with the FulcrumSec claim.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 40, "resolution": "TRUE if at least two of BBC, Reuters, BleepingComputer, or The Record report an official MAG, NCSC, or ICO statement confirming unauthorized access to MAG systems, dated between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-16.", "deadline": "2026-10-23", "citations": [ 11 ], "failure_condition": "The confirmation condition is not met: no official statement confirming unauthorized access, dated inside the window, exists under the stated corroboration standard at the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260901-09", "date_issued": "2026-09-01", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-01T02:13:14.354070+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d761c17c19aab3a2c4550f1180d3cb2cb497ba0450cff01fdc85b40ecfab39a2" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-30, the reported confirmed combined death toll for the August 2026 Nepal and Tibet floods reaches or exceeds 1000.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 60, "resolution": "TRUE if at least two of Reuters, AFP, Al Jazeera, or Guardian report an official combined confirmed death toll of 1000 or more for the flood event, dated within the window.", "deadline": "2026-11-06", "citations": [ 31, 37, 19 ], "failure_condition": "Official confirmed combined tolls reported within the window remain below 1000.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-08-30_1516.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260901-10", "date_issued": "2026-09-01", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-08-30_1516.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-01T02:13:14.354091+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c4f8587efbf05132e04bb08910aa6902652082b08a1cd492eeb52a4f25a7a966" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, at least one report from a hostile side confirms a drone strike on Kyiv with casualties claimed by Ukrainian sources.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "At least one report from a hostile side (RU or UA) confirms a drone strike on Kyiv during the window, with casualties claimed in at least one corroborating report.", "deadline": "2026-10-07", "citations": [ 3, 5 ], "failure_condition": "No report from a hostile side confirms a drone strike on Kyiv during the window with casualties claimed in any corroborating report.", "id": "KKR-20260901-11", "date_issued": "2026-09-01", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-01T15:20:41.070057+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0ca905cb653e9847265ef2b79b92ffd35f2f7469c03b741a2760f60119d1819d" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a tropical storm makes landfall in Texas with a storm surge warning issued by the National Weather Service.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 40, "resolution": "The National Weather Service issues a storm surge warning for a tropical storm making landfall in Texas between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 7 ], "failure_condition": "No storm surge warning is issued by the National Weather Service for a tropical storm making landfall in Texas between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.", "id": "KKR-20260901-12", "date_issued": "2026-09-01", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-01T15:20:41.070080+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7af32e8fe015e5cebd6a210cf9ded6c9f9d4415e90e1f7d4a75c0fca8adee10a" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-81578 results in unauthorized access to a critical infrastructure system.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 20, "resolution": "A confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-81578 results in unauthorized access to a critical infrastructure system, as reported by a public source.", "deadline": "2026-10-07", "citations": [ 8 ], "failure_condition": "No confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-81578 results in unauthorized access to a critical infrastructure system during the window.", "id": "KKR-20260901-13", "date_issued": "2026-09-01", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-01T15:20:41.070094+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7581f90c2b21741c73ee5f2beb4cce127a176b7228108162d6d959684870a32d" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds 4.85 percent on a weekday.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 35, "resolution": "The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds 4.85 percent on a weekday between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.", "deadline": "2026-10-08", "citations": [ 55 ], "failure_condition": "The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at or below 4.85 percent on every weekday between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.", "id": "KKR-20260901-14", "date_issued": "2026-09-01", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-01T15:20:41.070103+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a73371a255b4779db8892dd934e6f45e34a8d9ea42677ba84bff4171da2cd075" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a major wildfire in France causes damage to a wine-producing region as confirmed by Al Jazeera.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 30, "resolution": "Al Jazeera publishes a report confirming a major wildfire in France that causes damage to a wine-producing region between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.", "deadline": "2026-10-07", "citations": [ 34 ], "failure_condition": "Al Jazeera does not publish a report confirming a major wildfire in France causing damage to a wine-producing region during the window.", "id": "KKR-20260901-15", "date_issued": "2026-09-01", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-01T15:20:41.070112+00:00", "seal_sha256": "28fa0761d888b3045c5b4d47f1a197e85ecd8778ab17681b9901d0a3094afcec" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a cyberattack attributed to Russia-aligned actors targets a U.S. government agency using a previously unreported exploit.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "A cyberattack attributed to Russia-aligned actors targets a U.S. government agency using a previously unreported exploit, confirmed by at least two independent sources.", "deadline": "2026-10-08", "citations": [ 26 ], "failure_condition": "No cyberattack attributed to Russia-aligned actors targets a U.S. government agency using a previously unreported exploit during the window.", "id": "KKR-20260901-16", "date_issued": "2026-09-01", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-01T15:20:41.070119+00:00", "seal_sha256": "37b730dee105a237c69e1e3de571f9350e5b637399731280199b8042968173dc" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a new political summit involving Russia, Iran, and the U.S. is confirmed by at least two hostile sides.", "domain": "political", "probability": 10, "resolution": "At least two hostile sides (e.g., RU, WEST, AXIS) confirm the existence of a new political summit involving Russia, Iran, and the U.S. between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.", "deadline": "2026-10-08", "citations": [ 1, 57 ], "failure_condition": "No two hostile sides confirm the existence of a new political summit involving Russia, Iran, and the U.S. during the window.", "id": "KKR-20260901-17", "date_issued": "2026-09-01", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-01T15:20:41.070128+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b5332b4b5b2c6b75d3065da51f5c124e7ff3d6d60c1e4a83651aef787a5881a9" }, { "statement": "Ed Markey defeats Seth Moulton in the Massachusetts Democratic primary for United States Senate held September 1, 2026.", "domain": "political", "probability": 90, "resolution": "TRUE if Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth results, as reported by AP or a Massachusetts wire service, show Ed Markey receiving more votes than Seth Moulton in the September 1, 2026 Democratic Senate primary. FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-08", "citations": [ 122 ], "failure_condition": "Seth Moulton receives more votes than Ed Markey in the September 1, 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary, or the race remains uncalled for Markey by the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260901-18", "date_issued": "2026-09-01", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-01T23:03:40.477398+00:00", "seal_sha256": "03c04d6fb2a09d085dda57de612a3652edb00518dc9ac537ce0a673e52d9d89b", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [122] carry the claim's operative terms (massachusett, primary); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "District Judge Tony Graf rules that Tyler Robinson is bound over for trial specifically on the aggravated murder count in the killing of Charlie Kirk, following the September 1, 2026 preliminary hearing ruling in Provo, [withheld].", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 78, "resolution": "TRUE if Judge Graf's ruling, as reported by AP, NBC News, or the [withheld] state courts spokesperson, binds Robinson over on the aggravated murder count. FALSE if that count is dismissed or reduced to a lesser charge, or no ruling issues by the deadline.", "deadline": "2026-09-08", "citations": [ 13, 120 ], "failure_condition": "Judge Graf dismisses or reduces the aggravated murder count against Robinson, or issues no bindover ruling by the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260901-19", "date_issued": "2026-09-01", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-01T23:03:40.477420+00:00", "seal_sha256": "08f55862885e26c3c4d3bf89d729df7c5e75790be921cd58c68bb990ef1b71f4", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [13, 120] carry the claim's operative terms (charlie, judge, kirk, robinson, ruling, trial); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "At least one additional commercial vessel is struck, attacked, boarded, or seized in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-16.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if at least two of Reuters, AP, a UKMTO advisory, or a flag-state government statement report a vessel struck, attacked, boarded, or seized in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman during the window. FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 57, 70, 95 ], "failure_condition": "No vessel strike, attack, boarding, or seizure in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman is reported by two or more of the named sources during the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260901-20", "date_issued": "2026-09-01", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-01T23:03:40.477432+00:00", "seal_sha256": "bebce68b3c907da90acef68b681d076bc21978b047db4118ddcd6ada709f55b0" }, { "statement": "WTI crude oil front-month futures settle at or above 95.00 USD per barrel on any trading day between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-30. Reference: 88.02 USD per barrel on the packet date, 2026-09-01.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 28, "resolution": "TRUE if the NYMEX WTI front-month settlement price closes at or above 95.00 USD per barrel on any trading day from 2026-09-02 through 2026-09-30 inclusive, per EIA or NYMEX settlement data. FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 57, 65, 70 ], "failure_condition": "The WTI front-month settlement price never closes at or above 95.00 USD per barrel on any trading day in the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260901-21", "date_issued": "2026-09-01", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-01T23:03:40.477439+00:00", "seal_sha256": "eb373cd841d6e34f5e0eca62f071644bccaf34c878fd7c933d825a175b08569c" }, { "statement": "The US 10-year Treasury yield closes at or above 5.00 percent on any trading day between 2026-09-02 and 2026-10-15. Reference: 4.77 percent on the packet date, 2026-09-01.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if the US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, per the Treasury daily par yield curve or the FRED DGS10 series, closes at or above 5.00 percent on any date in the window. FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 61, 65, 76 ], "failure_condition": "The 10-year Treasury yield never closes at or above 5.00 percent on any trading day in the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "notes": "fred is the registered mirror of treasury_h15; source of record: treasury_h15", "id": "KKR-20260901-22", "date_issued": "2026-09-01", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-01T23:03:40.477447+00:00", "seal_sha256": "036c7a6e7dadb77d5e26ac98815c8cddcbf44c63ac9b74e7ab4b68177623b504" }, { "statement": "CISA adds at least one new Microsoft Exchange Server vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-23.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 20, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog shows a dateAdded value in the window for a CVE with vendorProject Microsoft and a product field containing Exchange. FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-25", "citations": [ 22 ], "failure_condition": "No Microsoft Exchange Server CVE is added to the CISA KEV catalog during the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260901-23", "date_issued": "2026-09-01", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-01T23:03:40.477454+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0c922093aa54e85fe9829097667e89de9a8fdb6ac57d26a966316f77b5c14c73" }, { "statement": "The confirmed or officially reported Nepal flood death toll reaches 1300 or more at any point between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-15.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if Nepal disaster authorities, the Red Cross, or a wire service report a confirmed or officially estimated Nepal flood death toll of 1300 or more on or before 2026-09-15. FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-17", "citations": [ 36, 45, 47 ], "failure_condition": "The confirmed or officially reported death toll from the Nepal flood disaster remains below 1300 through 2026-09-15.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260901-24", "date_issued": "2026-09-01", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-01T23:03:40.477461+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6e130d732715c5021343e6b99b8abddb4f922ce6bb7302695a5720fe26be88f6" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-02 and 2026-12-31, a general ceasefire covering the entire front line in Ukraine takes effect, announced by both the Ukrainian and Russian governments.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 8, "resolution": "True if president.gov.ua and kremlin.ru both publish statements confirming a general front-wide ceasefire in effect on a date between 2026-09-02 and 2026-12-31; localized, energy-only, or humanitarian pauses do not count.", "deadline": "2027-01-05", "citations": [ 63, 64, 81, 102 ], "failure_condition": "No general front-wide ceasefire confirmed by both Kyiv and Moscow is in effect on any date between 2026-09-02 and 2026-12-31.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-01", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:09:26.125967+00:00", "seal_sha256": "829800bcc9cf8ac721d21b6021941bff8ac43e4431fed0459b5f003afe807243" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-02 and 2026-10-31, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in person, with the meeting confirmed by both the White House and the Kremlin.", "domain": "political", "probability": 30, "resolution": "True if whitehouse.gov and kremlin.ru both carry official confirmation or readouts of an in-person Trump-Putin meeting held between 2026-09-02 and 2026-10-31; phone or video calls do not count.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 63, 81 ], "failure_condition": "Trump and Putin do not meet in person on any date between 2026-09-02 and 2026-10-31.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-02", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:09:26.126031+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f14ba7666c89524bba5d38076e6f9ad5ed49adb65d73e4c630bc2a9aa0befde6" }, { "statement": "A lapse in US federal appropriations (government shutdown) begins on 2026-10-01 because no full-year or continuing appropriations covering that date is enacted beforehand.", "domain": "political", "probability": 25, "resolution": "True if OMB or OPM publishes lapse-in-appropriations (shutdown) guidance effective 2026-10-01, or Congress.gov shows no enacted full-year or continuing appropriations covering 2026-10-01 for any federal agency.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 111, 112 ], "failure_condition": "Appropriations covering all federal agencies for 2026-10-01 are enacted on or before 2026-09-30 and no shutdown begins on 2026-10-01.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-03", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:09:26.126043+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3cb7dfd72aaef48b11eb7af87cde9b151f07b061bcc232e886ef4b10f08ec3e0" }, { "statement": "The 10-year US Treasury constant maturity yield closes at or above 5.00 percent on at least one trading day between 2026-09-02 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 4.77 percent on 2026-09-01.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 40, "resolution": "True if FRED series DGS10 shows a daily value of 5.00 or higher for any date from 2026-09-02 through 2026-10-30; the Treasury daily par yield curve is the tiebreaker if FRED is unavailable.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 61, 65, 68, 76 ], "failure_condition": "Every daily DGS10 value from 2026-09-02 through 2026-10-30 is below 5.00 percent.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-04", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:09:26.126052+00:00", "seal_sha256": "05dd2ac15e78ffa88d33ff8e4f3b70e7937ba38de2357808c45f08dcc39b21ae" }, { "statement": "The WTI crude oil spot price at Cushing settles at or above 100.00 dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-02 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 88.02 dollars on 2026-09-01.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 30, "resolution": "True if FRED series DCOILWTICO (EIA Cushing WTI spot) shows a daily value of 100.00 or higher for any date from 2026-09-02 through 2026-10-30; the EIA daily spot price table is the tiebreaker.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 57, 70, 83 ], "failure_condition": "Every daily DCOILWTICO value from 2026-09-02 through 2026-10-30 is below 100.00 dollars per barrel.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-05", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:09:26.126059+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6500532c163def9c330d5490c4449c92f6969e9ce8ac153657f46061edde7884" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-30, CISA adds at least one Microsoft Exchange Server vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "True if the CISA KEV catalog JSON contains at least one entry with vendorProject Microsoft, product containing Exchange, and dateAdded between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 22 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry for a Microsoft Exchange Server product carries a dateAdded value between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-30.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-06", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:09:26.126070+00:00", "seal_sha256": "960e1e7c953789ae6d08948093fe1a6f52290110b4287d23732a6862905ff23f" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30, the [withheld] Fourth District Court orders Tyler Robinson bound over for trial on the aggravated murder charge in the killing of Charlie Kirk.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 80, "resolution": "True if the [withheld] Fourth District Court docket, or the [withheld] County Attorney office, records a bindover order on the aggravated murder count dated 2026-09-01 through 2026-09-30; dismissal of that count or no ruling by 2026-09-30 resolves false.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 13, 120 ], "failure_condition": "No bindover order on the aggravated murder count against Tyler Robinson is entered between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30, whether because the count is dismissed or the ruling is delayed.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-07", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:09:26.126076+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c2740e3b649fb8203aa166bfdf6592ffcf87a34351b420d40d8d280aa5764b2d" }, { "statement": "The jury in the Lindsay Clancy murder trial in Plymouth County, Massachusetts returns a verdict on at least one count between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-11, rather than the judge declaring a mistrial for deadlock.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 65, "resolution": "True if a verdict on any count (including not guilty by reason of insanity) is entered by Plymouth Superior Court, or reported by AP and the Boston Globe, dated 2026-09-01 through 2026-09-11; mistrial or no verdict resolves false.", "deadline": "2026-09-15", "citations": [ 113 ], "failure_condition": "The Clancy jury returns no verdict on any count between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-11, including a mistrial declared for deadlock or deliberations still ongoing on 2026-09-11.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-08", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:09:26.126084+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4f8bc3009b049193680b14d3ecea4f86300e0031004be4ea78ff62eb5a89390b" }, { "statement": "The front-month ICE Brent crude futures contract settles at or above 100.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09. Reference: Brent 92.47 at seal on 2026-09-01.", "domain": "economics_markets", "probability": 35, "resolution": "ICE published front-month Brent settlement data shows a settlement at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day from 2026-09-08 through 2026-10-09; reference 92.47 at seal.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 57, 65, 70 ], "failure_condition": "Every ICE front-month Brent settlement inside the window prints below 100.00 US dollars per barrel.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-09", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:09:26.954446+00:00", "seal_sha256": "12200e0a78c8ac4bd62240665132a90b2068ca2f9d67e55ac9a0d026be7e441e" }, { "statement": "The US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield reaches 5.00 percent or higher on at least one business day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 4.77 percent at seal on 2026-09-01.", "domain": "economics_markets", "probability": 40, "resolution": "FRED series DGS10 carries a daily observation at or above 5.00 for at least one business day from 2026-09-08 through 2026-10-30; reference 4.77 at seal.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 61, 65, 76 ], "failure_condition": "Every DGS10 daily observation inside the window prints below 5.00 percent.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-10", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:09:26.954467+00:00", "seal_sha256": "097e262964299b7363d0a256d4e93a2eb1ab6001319f914109ce65761f81b60f" }, { "statement": "The FOMC raises the federal funds target range at the meeting concluding 2026-09-16 or the meeting concluding 2026-10-28. Reference: target range 3.50 to 3.75 percent in effect at seal on 2026-09-01.", "domain": "economics_markets", "probability": 22, "resolution": "The FOMC implementation note for 2026-09-16 or for 2026-10-28 sets a target range whose upper bound exceeds 3.75 percent; reference 3.50 to 3.75 at seal.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 61, 65, 68 ], "failure_condition": "Both implementation notes leave the target range upper bound at or below 3.75 percent.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-11", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:09:26.954479+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8c9628912793fa10d57794400efa7ec37157a363b62f01725888153a87c95d38" }, { "statement": "Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin hold an in-person meeting on a date between 2026-09-08 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The White House and the Kremlin each confirm an in-person Trump-Putin meeting held inside the window, and AP or Reuters reports from the venue.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 63, 81, 102 ], "failure_condition": "The two principals do not meet face to face at any point inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-12", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:09:26.954487+00:00", "seal_sha256": "882463fc5391ffdc784def8daa742487416da8a24a6f8396c09469263feac119" }, { "statement": "A commercial vessel is struck by weapons fire in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Oman between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-08.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "UKMTO issues an incident advisory for a commercial vessel struck in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman inside the window, and Reuters reports the same incident.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 57, 70, 105 ], "failure_condition": "No commercial vessel takes weapons-fire damage in those waters during the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-13", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:09:26.954495+00:00", "seal_sha256": "52da69f681be65aff57fa296bdc8e04e1671c02ef7a36b1ad2dcc5b354d97c87" }, { "statement": "Duane Davis is sentenced in the Eighth Judicial District Court of Clark County, Nevada on a date between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-18.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 60, "resolution": "The Eighth Judicial District Court docket records a judgment of conviction with a sentence imposed on Duane Davis on a date inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-12-22", "citations": [ 14, 15 ], "failure_condition": "The court imposes no sentence on Duane Davis on any date inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-14", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:09:26.954502+00:00", "seal_sha256": "bf92fa2a38449f168b16898f108a547888e133f72c836f915ebf15dbac980509" }, { "statement": "Ed Markey defeats Seth Moulton in the Massachusetts Democratic primary for United States Senate held September 1, 2026.", "domain": "political", "probability": 44, "resolution": "TRUE if Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth results, as reported by AP or a Massachusetts wire service, show Ed Markey receiving more votes than Seth Moulton in the September 1, 2026 Democratic Senate primary. FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-08", "citations": [ 122 ], "failure_condition": "Seth Moulton receives more votes than Ed Markey in the September 1, 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary, or the race remains uncalled for Markey by the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4444, "n": 36, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T00:09:26Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-15", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:22:17.680710+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fe0dc53e911ed07203e41b5ccf401c91947c6b9e14b5041ec06ffbde8d6867dd", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "District Judge Tony Graf rules that Tyler Robinson is bound over for trial specifically on the aggravated murder count in the killing of Charlie Kirk, following the September 1, 2026 preliminary hearing ruling in Provo, [withheld].", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 43, "resolution": "TRUE if Judge Graf's ruling, as reported by AP, NBC News, or the [withheld] state courts spokesperson, binds Robinson over on the aggravated murder count. FALSE if that count is dismissed or reduced to a lesser charge, or no ruling issues by the deadline.", "deadline": "2026-09-08", "citations": [ 13, 120 ], "failure_condition": "Judge Graf dismisses or reduces the aggravated murder count against Robinson, or issues no bindover ruling by the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4257, "n": 148, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T00:09:26Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-16", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:22:17.680733+00:00", "seal_sha256": "386d89bc6dc42a8f913c30cc32f42c2908fa2d70b04fbd134be69c91050f06c9", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "At least one additional commercial vessel is struck, attacked, boarded, or seized in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-16.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 53, "resolution": "TRUE if at least two of Reuters, AP, a UKMTO advisory, or a flag-state government statement report a vessel struck, attacked, boarded, or seized in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman during the window. FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 57, 70, 95 ], "failure_condition": "No vessel strike, attack, boarding, or seizure in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman is reported by two or more of the named sources during the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5312, "n": 32, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T00:09:26Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-17", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:22:17.680745+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0c36b1b1b0ea5c18cb2d87cd9da283d332d16f34458af21b59680332677600ea" }, { "statement": "WTI crude oil front-month futures settle at or above 95.00 USD per barrel on any trading day between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-30. Reference: 88.02 USD per barrel on the packet date, 2026-09-01.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if the NYMEX WTI front-month settlement price closes at or above 95.00 USD per barrel on any trading day from 2026-09-02 through 2026-09-30 inclusive, per EIA or NYMEX settlement data. FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 57, 65, 70 ], "failure_condition": "The WTI front-month settlement price never closes at or above 95.00 USD per barrel on any trading day in the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 20, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T00:09:26Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-18", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:22:17.680753+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2995ab35d331c3874e36910fcfe423075901219cb0756011affe7840f4fdb6a7" }, { "statement": "The US 10-year Treasury yield closes at or above 5.00 percent on any trading day between 2026-09-02 and 2026-10-15. Reference: 4.77 percent on the packet date, 2026-09-01.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if the US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, per the Treasury daily par yield curve or the FRED DGS10 series, closes at or above 5.00 percent on any date in the window. FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 61, 65, 76 ], "failure_condition": "The 10-year Treasury yield never closes at or above 5.00 percent on any trading day in the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 20, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T00:09:26Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "notes": "fred is the registered mirror of treasury_h15; source of record: treasury_h15", "id": "KKR-20260902-19", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:22:17.680764+00:00", "seal_sha256": "25abbe17afe38ba075407d6a5bd1ddafa2dc39ebffef602aa48b7161436b02ec" }, { "statement": "CISA adds at least one new Microsoft Exchange Server vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-23.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog shows a dateAdded value in the window for a CVE with vendorProject Microsoft and a product field containing Exchange. FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-25", "citations": [ 22 ], "failure_condition": "No Microsoft Exchange Server CVE is added to the CISA KEV catalog during the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 27, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T00:09:26Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-20", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:22:17.680771+00:00", "seal_sha256": "60edc1aa061f84323af8dc09c48c848d7b840cd9d7800932c4a3e8d8cdbacf8a" }, { "statement": "The confirmed or officially reported Nepal flood death toll reaches 1300 or more at any point between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-15.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 52, "resolution": "TRUE if Nepal disaster authorities, the Red Cross, or a wire service report a confirmed or officially estimated Nepal flood death toll of 1300 or more on or before 2026-09-15. FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-17", "citations": [ 36, 45, 47 ], "failure_condition": "The confirmed or officially reported death toll from the Nepal flood disaster remains below 1300 through 2026-09-15.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5172, "n": 29, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T00:09:26Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-21", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:22:17.680779+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8a7f9fdc10bfa2b9bfa1555751918a337d8ad5b37c63f5813c5b66c658d7bd5e" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-02 and 2026-12-31, a general ceasefire covering the entire front line in Ukraine takes effect, announced by both the Ukrainian and Russian governments.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 53, "resolution": "True if president.gov.ua and kremlin.ru both publish statements confirming a general front-wide ceasefire in effect on a date between 2026-09-02 and 2026-12-31; localized, energy-only, or humanitarian pauses do not count.", "deadline": "2027-01-05", "citations": [ 63, 64, 81, 102 ], "failure_condition": "No general front-wide ceasefire confirmed by both Kyiv and Moscow is in effect on any date between 2026-09-02 and 2026-12-31.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5312, "n": 32, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T00:09:26Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-22", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:22:18.549258+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e6b28cbbdb8d172b42981a267f48dfc186c21e579144046dad975bc41c48c6ac" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-02 and 2026-10-31, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in person, with the meeting confirmed by both the White House and the Kremlin.", "domain": "political", "probability": 44, "resolution": "True if whitehouse.gov and kremlin.ru both carry official confirmation or readouts of an in-person Trump-Putin meeting held between 2026-09-02 and 2026-10-31; phone or video calls do not count.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 63, 81 ], "failure_condition": "Trump and Putin do not meet in person on any date between 2026-09-02 and 2026-10-31.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4444, "n": 36, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T00:09:26Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-23", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:22:18.549280+00:00", "seal_sha256": "598b0e8f1f983949cd39195973cf5448f074269a1c7770d4358d2e8308a313c8" }, { "statement": "A lapse in US federal appropriations (government shutdown) begins on 2026-10-01 because no full-year or continuing appropriations covering that date is enacted beforehand.", "domain": "political", "probability": 44, "resolution": "True if OMB or OPM publishes lapse-in-appropriations (shutdown) guidance effective 2026-10-01, or Congress.gov shows no enacted full-year or continuing appropriations covering 2026-10-01 for any federal agency.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 111, 112 ], "failure_condition": "Appropriations covering all federal agencies for 2026-10-01 are enacted on or before 2026-09-30 and no shutdown begins on 2026-10-01.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4444, "n": 36, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T00:09:26Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-24", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:22:18.549292+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6e5b4a801b516c2a0d86b2475d1b6f15eae867a8d1ec8649ebf89bb36f9ec36a" }, { "statement": "The 10-year US Treasury constant maturity yield closes at or above 5.00 percent on at least one trading day between 2026-09-02 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 4.77 percent on 2026-09-01.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "True if FRED series DGS10 shows a daily value of 5.00 or higher for any date from 2026-09-02 through 2026-10-30; the Treasury daily par yield curve is the tiebreaker if FRED is unavailable.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 61, 65, 68, 76 ], "failure_condition": "Every daily DGS10 value from 2026-09-02 through 2026-10-30 is below 5.00 percent.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 20, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T00:09:26Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-25", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:22:18.549301+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c4b857fa37c2f49506942737e6ce8469b0f8c61009a0e332e0eeaa790644d353" }, { "statement": "The WTI crude oil spot price at Cushing settles at or above 100.00 dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-02 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 88.02 dollars on 2026-09-01.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "True if FRED series DCOILWTICO (EIA Cushing WTI spot) shows a daily value of 100.00 or higher for any date from 2026-09-02 through 2026-10-30; the EIA daily spot price table is the tiebreaker.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 57, 70, 83 ], "failure_condition": "Every daily DCOILWTICO value from 2026-09-02 through 2026-10-30 is below 100.00 dollars per barrel.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 20, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T00:09:26Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-26", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:22:18.549309+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3020987c8f166ec3ad611de868a36f6c6995f67ab5108068f3a19509bec9ac8f" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-30, CISA adds at least one Microsoft Exchange Server vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 33, "resolution": "True if the CISA KEV catalog JSON contains at least one entry with vendorProject Microsoft, product containing Exchange, and dateAdded between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 22 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry for a Microsoft Exchange Server product carries a dateAdded value between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-30.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3333, "n": 27, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T00:09:26Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-27", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:22:18.549317+00:00", "seal_sha256": "035b5e9e5fbd116e613b1daaa69b7f3d5983c9486c31c4520bc24bd17f6d70cf" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30, the [withheld] Fourth District Court orders Tyler Robinson bound over for trial on the aggravated murder charge in the killing of Charlie Kirk.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 43, "resolution": "True if the [withheld] Fourth District Court docket, or the [withheld] County Attorney office, records a bindover order on the aggravated murder count dated 2026-09-01 through 2026-09-30; dismissal of that count or no ruling by 2026-09-30 resolves false.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 13, 120 ], "failure_condition": "No bindover order on the aggravated murder count against Tyler Robinson is entered between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30, whether because the count is dismissed or the ruling is delayed.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4257, "n": 148, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T00:09:26Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-28", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:22:18.549325+00:00", "seal_sha256": "02975bde28adba07ba0a1ac7687f2f76f5cd828f0d2bc4212fb7737e64c3acb2" }, { "statement": "The jury in the Lindsay Clancy murder trial in Plymouth County, Massachusetts returns a verdict on at least one count between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-11, rather than the judge declaring a mistrial for deadlock.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 43, "resolution": "True if a verdict on any count (including not guilty by reason of insanity) is entered by Plymouth Superior Court, or reported by AP and the Boston Globe, dated 2026-09-01 through 2026-09-11; mistrial or no verdict resolves false.", "deadline": "2026-09-15", "citations": [ 113 ], "failure_condition": "The Clancy jury returns no verdict on any count between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-11, including a mistrial declared for deadlock or deliberations still ongoing on 2026-09-11.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4257, "n": 148, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T00:09:26Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-29", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:22:18.549333+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3a26bd0223ded4f62dcfd308ea06a3146f524b50b08e4808df47081db64c28d8" }, { "statement": "The front-month ICE Brent crude futures contract settles at or above 100.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09. Reference: Brent 92.47 at seal on 2026-09-01.", "domain": "economics_markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "ICE published front-month Brent settlement data shows a settlement at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day from 2026-09-08 through 2026-10-09; reference 92.47 at seal.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 57, 65, 70 ], "failure_condition": "Every ICE front-month Brent settlement inside the window prints below 100.00 US dollars per barrel.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 20, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T00:09:26Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-30", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:22:19.428880+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c1ffe3908c498d7dca0796323b96ef23e217292df5163746d3c46e596e9e7b19" }, { "statement": "The US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield reaches 5.00 percent or higher on at least one business day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 4.77 percent at seal on 2026-09-01.", "domain": "economics_markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "FRED series DGS10 carries a daily observation at or above 5.00 for at least one business day from 2026-09-08 through 2026-10-30; reference 4.77 at seal.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 61, 65, 76 ], "failure_condition": "Every DGS10 daily observation inside the window prints below 5.00 percent.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 20, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T00:09:26Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-31", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:22:19.428900+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8c9fc1d494dcd95c4723884d550b96d4c338091cf59b6eb48647d8391c4ee359" }, { "statement": "The FOMC raises the federal funds target range at the meeting concluding 2026-09-16 or the meeting concluding 2026-10-28. Reference: target range 3.50 to 3.75 percent in effect at seal on 2026-09-01.", "domain": "economics_markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The FOMC implementation note for 2026-09-16 or for 2026-10-28 sets a target range whose upper bound exceeds 3.75 percent; reference 3.50 to 3.75 at seal.", "deadline": "2026-10-30", "citations": [ 61, 65, 68 ], "failure_condition": "Both implementation notes leave the target range upper bound at or below 3.75 percent.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.25, "n": 20, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T00:09:26Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-32", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:22:19.428913+00:00", "seal_sha256": "47e87541f3c34884ea3f45b2a684ce617413f85737733d3c0f5eefdde8383012" }, { "statement": "Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin hold an in-person meeting on a date between 2026-09-08 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 44, "resolution": "The White House and the Kremlin each confirm an in-person Trump-Putin meeting held inside the window, and AP or Reuters reports from the venue.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 63, 81, 102 ], "failure_condition": "The two principals do not meet face to face at any point inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4444, "n": 36, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T00:09:26Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-33", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:22:19.428921+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5ec37d3db8f132aecf9cc14d75521c5c4e78ab0289c3420f6cc7e89807136aff" }, { "statement": "A commercial vessel is struck by weapons fire in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Oman between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-08.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 53, "resolution": "UKMTO issues an incident advisory for a commercial vessel struck in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman inside the window, and Reuters reports the same incident.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 57, 70, 105 ], "failure_condition": "No commercial vessel takes weapons-fire damage in those waters during the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.5312, "n": 32, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T00:09:26Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-34", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:22:19.428930+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7a01f15dc8dd7e78e2950247a8bc88f7e49f48fdbcacb873548c71fb3c8de78d" }, { "statement": "Duane Davis is sentenced in the Eighth Judicial District Court of Clark County, Nevada on a date between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-18.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 43, "resolution": "The Eighth Judicial District Court docket records a judgment of conviction with a sentence imposed on Duane Davis on a date inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-12-22", "citations": [ 14, 15 ], "failure_condition": "The court imposes no sentence on Duane Davis on any date inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4257, "n": 148, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T00:09:26Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-01_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-35", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-01_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T00:22:19.428939+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1b7c8240faa253443a521066a97879eb3a77acbbf90dc5504312b02bba024fb3" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, the CISA KEV catalog will include at least one entry for a zero-day vulnerability in SonicWall SMA1000 devices that was actively exploited in the wild.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24 for a vulnerability with CVE identifier or exploit description matching SonicWall SMA1000 zero-day flaws.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 22, 31 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog does not contain any entry for a SonicWall SMA1000 zero-day vulnerability with a date-added value in the specified window.", "id": "KKR-20260902-36", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T15:22:47.955871+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e82b2077e6da9df440dd83a7d0a626b696fc311c599561806ec7ae7e0be6698e" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-28, at least one drone strike will be confirmed by two or more independently biased sources in the Kyiv region of Ukraine.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 25, "resolution": "At least one drone strike event in Kyiv, Ukraine, is confirmed by two or more sources from distinct hostile sides (RU, UA) with no single side carrying more than 60% of the volume.", "deadline": "2026-10-07", "citations": [ 14, 15, 16, 17, 18 ], "failure_condition": "No drone strike in Kyiv is confirmed by two or more independently biased sources during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260902-37", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T15:22:47.955901+00:00", "seal_sha256": "356609be79f75748d82bf54fc08312e6828ce4b0698355202e8f78c080e04177" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-29, the S&P 500 index will close above 7,700 points on at least one trading day.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 45, "resolution": "The S&P 500 closes at or above 7,700.00 on at least one weekday between 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-29, based on the official market close from a public exchange.", "deadline": "2026-10-08", "citations": [ 1 ], "failure_condition": "The S&P 500 closes below 7,700.00 on every trading day between 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-29.", "id": "KKR-20260902-38", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T15:22:47.955918+00:00", "seal_sha256": "41da553f9c3a6ee8977476d8d069bb9690596469c3e21af3a3eed1514c9ab399" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-25 and 2026-10-01, a new earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater will be recorded by the USGS in the Pacific Ring of Fire region.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 15, "resolution": "The USGS Significant Quakes feed records a new earthquake event with magnitude ≥6.0 and depth ≤100km in the Pacific Ring of Fire between 2026-09-25 and 2026-10-01.", "deadline": "2026-10-10", "citations": [ 44, 46 ], "failure_condition": "No earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater is recorded by the USGS in the Pacific Ring of Fire during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260902-39", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T15:22:47.955931+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b555e583ca857b99410d64e88a6cd4a9584f0cf941686ef3eed1f76b0c667f69" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-27 and 2026-10-03, a new ransomware attack will be confirmed by two or more independent sources targeting a U.S. healthcare provider, resulting in data exposure of over 100,000 patients.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "At least two independently biased sources (e.g., BleepingComputer, The Hacker News) confirm a ransomware attack on a U.S. healthcare provider between 2026-09-27 and 2026-10-03, with data exposure affecting more than 100,000 patients.", "deadline": "2026-10-12", "citations": [ 34, 15 ], "failure_condition": "No such ransomware attack is confirmed by two or more independent sources during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260902-40", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T15:22:47.955946+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9e8070646241183faafb8bcf36055f78ca4b1068c45fe089bf81e4f9f9968d83" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-04, a new conflict escalation event involving Iran and Israel will be confirmed by two or more hostile sides in the Strait of Hormuz region.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 28, "resolution": "At least two independently biased sources (AXIS, WEST, IL) confirm a new military event (e.g., missile, drone, naval engagement) in the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-04.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 82, 102 ], "failure_condition": "No such event is confirmed by two or more hostile sides in the Strait of Hormuz during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260902-41", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T15:22:47.955958+00:00", "seal_sha256": "27b0b67fd205b33af37b6adef77a3ed0a829ce7f1fc44c3c4b9207dc1ff31d9c" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-05, a new political scandal involving a U.S. federal official will be reported by two or more independent outlets, resulting in a formal investigation or resignation.", "domain": "political", "probability": 40, "resolution": "At least two independent outlets (e.g., BBC World, Guardian World, Politico) report a new political scandal involving a U.S. federal official that leads to a formal investigation or resignation by 2026-10-05.", "deadline": "2026-10-14", "citations": [ 107, 112, 123 ], "failure_condition": "No such scandal involving a U.S. federal official is reported by two or more independent outlets with a formal outcome by the deadline.", "id": "KKR-20260902-42", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T15:22:47.955970+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3c5f1c44b0fc784fee07cd0f771c0a0e04ce6eed34b778dd923e59b23c6244a2" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-30 and 2026-10-06, a new flood disaster in Nepal will be confirmed by two or more independent sources, resulting in at least 100 fatalities.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 18, "resolution": "At least two independent sources (e.g., BBC World, Al Jazeera, Guardian World) confirm a new flood disaster in Nepal between 2026-09-30 and 2026-10-06, with a death toll of 100 or more.", "deadline": "2026-10-15", "citations": [ 45, 51, 54 ], "failure_condition": "No such flood disaster in Nepal is confirmed by two or more independent sources with 100 or more fatalities during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260902-43", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T15:22:47.955981+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6c8ace2f84f27aba1a799f1f6e6904421086f01dd4c02d9b12eecf274ed07b27" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry whose vendor or product fields reference SonicWall SMA1000, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 85, "resolution": "A fetch of the CISA KEV catalog on the deadline shows at least one SMA1000 entry with dateAdded between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 22, 31 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry referencing SonicWall SMA1000 carries a dateAdded value inside the 2026-09-03 to 2026-09-30 window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-44", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:51.161024+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8e9e50258a0b714527365b736c665ae3d1fc670a01e16a554bd4960b5ba84ff3" }, { "statement": "Front-month NYMEX WTI crude settles at or above 100.00 dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 90.59 on the packet date.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 45, "resolution": "CME official settlement data show any front-month CL settlement at or above 100.00 inside the window. Reference level at seal: 90.59.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 79, 82, 109 ], "failure_condition": "Every front-month WTI settlement in the window is below 100.00 dollars.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-45", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:51.161047+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c19624e912d2b75f53c9b0a2986ae41323db9dcb988b55266d16fc6908b96ca5" }, { "statement": "The US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, FRED series DGS10, records a value at or above 5.00 percent on at least one business day between 2026-09-03 and 2026-12-31. Reference: 4.80 percent on the packet date.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 40, "resolution": "FRED series DGS10 shows at least one daily value at or above 5.00 inside the window. Reference level at seal: 4.80 percent.", "deadline": "2027-01-05", "citations": [ 74, 81 ], "failure_condition": "No DGS10 daily value in the window reaches 5.00 percent.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-46", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:51.161059+00:00", "seal_sha256": "44ebcc43abcb6b6d018c53f1523c78b6639513862d9dae9bad7f8d1ad7689871" }, { "statement": "A lapse in US federal appropriations begins on 2026-10-01 because no full-year appropriations act or continuing resolution covering all agencies is enacted on or before 2026-09-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 30, "resolution": "Congress.gov shows no enacted government-wide funding measure signed by 2026-09-30 and OPM publicly issues shutdown furlough guidance effective 2026-10-01.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 112, 131 ], "failure_condition": "A funding measure covering all agencies is enacted by 2026-09-30, so no lapse begins on 2026-10-01.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-47", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:51.161068+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8dc0c1b0d340f4282e9b96bf58e1c387809092195b4e19aa0b93ecc89eea8061" }, { "statement": "A continuous suspension of laden tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz lasting at least 72 hours begins between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 12, "resolution": "At least two of Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, AFP report, citing AIS or tracking data, a continuous 72-hour halt of laden tanker transits beginning inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 82, 109 ], "failure_condition": "Laden tanker transits of the strait continue throughout the window without any continuous 72-hour suspension beginning in it.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-48", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:51.161079+00:00", "seal_sha256": "513404f4f2a04770b609657962bfa838e0eb34548e777404c889514afa216b32" }, { "statement": "At least one US military strike on a target inside Iranian territory occurring between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-16 is acknowledged by US official channels and reported by Iranian state media.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 78, "resolution": "CENTCOM or DoD publicly acknowledges a strike inside Iran occurring in the window, and at least one of IRNA, Tasnim, Press TV reports a strike on Iranian territory in the same window.", "deadline": "2026-09-21", "citations": [ 95, 102, 105 ], "failure_condition": "No strike on Iranian territory occurring inside the window is confirmed by both US official channels and Iranian state media.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-49", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:51.161087+00:00", "seal_sha256": "344dafab344b157ca0c2a06209834fb90dbad67633881bb5320c1c3e1f45484e" }, { "statement": "A major US grid operator among PJM, MISO, ERCOT, SPP, NYISO, ISO-NE, CAISO declares an Energy Emergency Alert Level 2 or higher effective on a date between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-16.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 55, "resolution": "The public notices archive of at least one named operator shows an EEA Level 2 or Level 3 declaration, or equivalent maximum generation emergency, effective inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 127 ], "failure_condition": "No named operator declares an EEA Level 2 or higher, or equivalent emergency, effective inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-50", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:51.161094+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1924b8df2bf9c2525a3a3fec7d79accb9093d651a00d00a6bf4b0787fba5c61a" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent front-month futures settle at or above 110.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 95.33 on the packet date 2026-09-02.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if the ICE Brent front-month official settlement price equals or exceeds 110.00 on any trading day from 2026-09-03 through 2026-10-30. Reference level 95.33 at seal.", "deadline": "2026-11-02", "citations": [ 79, 82 ], "failure_condition": "Every ICE Brent front-month settlement from 2026-09-03 through 2026-10-30 prints below 110.00 USD per barrel.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-51", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:52.038056+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9932045af72cddda5c1635c192147e62ab23eb860872bbe2024173c38b635c3a" }, { "statement": "The US Treasury 10-year constant maturity par yield closes at or above 5.15 percent on at least one business day between 2026-09-03 and 2026-11-30. Reference: 4.80 percent on 2026-09-02.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 48, "resolution": "TRUE if FRED series DGS10 or the Treasury daily par yield curve records a 10-year value of 5.15 or higher on any date from 2026-09-03 through 2026-11-30. Reference 4.80 at seal.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 67, 74, 79 ], "failure_condition": "The DGS10 series maximum across 2026-09-03 through 2026-11-30 stays below 5.15 percent.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "notes": "fred is the registered mirror of treasury_h15; source of record: treasury_h15", "id": "KKR-20260902-52", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:52.038078+00:00", "seal_sha256": "cac4148ed87d8b639b231d731bab6068a59c898e5641415c44a3fb2b3fec6c1a" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one SonicWall vulnerability with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 70, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog JSON contains at least one entry with vendorProject SonicWall and dateAdded from 2026-09-03 through 2026-10-15 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 22, 31 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV catalog holds no SonicWall entry with a dateAdded inside that range when fetched at the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-53", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:52.038090+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b9ab70925bb2718cd23c51048ca5fdce27b46183fbb4da02af57036bb2f5d38a" }, { "statement": "The HHS Office for Civil Rights breach portal lists an Aesto Health breach affecting 9,500,000 or more individuals, posted between 2026-09-03 and 2026-12-15.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 40, "resolution": "TRUE if the HHS OCR breach portal shows a single entry naming Aesto Health with individuals affected of 9,500,000 or more and a submission date in that window.", "deadline": "2026-12-18", "citations": [ 34 ], "failure_condition": "No single OCR portal entry naming Aesto Health reaches 9,500,000 individuals affected within that posting window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-54", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:52.038098+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7e7178bad847856524d8e2b02ad52a84bc56f1adb2a9395d63f16cfe1f554261" }, { "statement": "Russian official sources confirm UAV interception or debris over Moscow city or Moscow oblast on at least three separate calendar days between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 85, "resolution": "TRUE if Russian Ministry of Defence or Moscow mayoral statements, echoed by Reuters or AFP, name three or more distinct dates in that window with UAV interception over Moscow.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 93, 94, 114 ], "failure_condition": "Fewer than three distinct calendar days in that window carry an official Russian UAV interception claim over Moscow.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-55", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:52.038107+00:00", "seal_sha256": "43c1339d14753489b85e82296614e52e410351331063ca8db370c18b647a89de" }, { "statement": "A UN OCHA or Nepal NDRRMA report published between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-15 states a confirmed death toll of 1,500 or more from the 2026 Nepal-Tibet floods.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if an OCHA situation report on ReliefWeb or an NDRRMA bulletin, published in that window, states 1,500 or more confirmed deaths from the 2026 Nepal flood event.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 43, 45, 55 ], "failure_condition": "Every OCHA or NDRRMA report published in that window states a confirmed toll below 1,500.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-56", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:52.038116+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8c1bfeb16ae3ff68ac97987553bd73b184d157f9360dfb6a2c53b90a183a71aa" }, { "statement": "WTI crude oil, NYMEX front-month contract, settles at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on any trading day between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-30. Reference: 90.59 USD per barrel on the packet date, 2026-09-02.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if CME/NYMEX settlement data or EIA daily spot price shows WTI at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on any date in the window; FALSE if no such settlement occurs.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 79, 82 ], "failure_condition": "WTI settlement data shows no daily close at or above 100.00 USD per barrel at any point in the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-57", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:52.890998+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0ebc03fba7e9008fe6d62e7098e2d8ba470a1eeb1884bce18ee36539137f1f61" }, { "statement": "The 10-year US Treasury note yield closes at or above 5.00 percent on any trading day between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-25. Reference: 4.80 percent on the packet date, 2026-09-02.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 28, "resolution": "TRUE if the Treasury.gov daily par yield curve or FRED series DGS10 records a 10-year close at or above 5.00 percent on any date in the window; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-28", "citations": [ 74, 75 ], "failure_condition": "FRED or Treasury daily yield data shows no 10-year close at or above 5.00 percent within the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "notes": "fred is the registered mirror of treasury_h15; source of record: treasury_h15", "id": "KKR-20260902-58", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:52.891019+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a3f4f731aeed8807ddd99606c794239da17ce0df16ec5c42dcdb8d55a994cba4" }, { "statement": "CISA adds a SonicWall SMA1000 vulnerability tied to the zero-days reported as actively exploited on 2026-09-02 to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog, with dateAdded between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-23.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 60, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog lists a SonicWall SMA1000 CVE with dateAdded inside the window; FALSE if no such entry appears by the deadline.", "deadline": "2026-09-28", "citations": [ 22, 31 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog carries no SonicWall SMA1000 entry with a dateAdded value inside the window by the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-59", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:52.891030+00:00", "seal_sha256": "bb4fca410817464d3242b4ae2ad57edce86c8b87fde50938a893aece46641bbd" }, { "statement": "CISA adds a GeoNetwork remote-code-execution vulnerability, the unauthenticated RCE chain reported affecting government geoportal backends on 2026-09-02, to the KEV catalog, with dateAdded between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-23.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 20, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog lists a GeoNetwork-related CVE with dateAdded inside the window; FALSE if no such entry appears by the deadline.", "deadline": "2026-09-28", "citations": [ 24 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog carries no GeoNetwork-related entry with a dateAdded value inside the window by the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-60", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:52.891039+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8c300567312808c667b7de315e2517db591fb4d8d1e0e721f2f0ad01fbde68ef" }, { "statement": "[withheld] Fourth District Court sets a specific trial start date for Tyler Robinson, the man charged with murdering Charlie Kirk, at the scheduled October 23, 2026 hearing.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 65, "resolution": "TRUE if [withheld] Fourth District Court records or a wire service confirm a trial start date was set at the October 23, 2026 hearing; FALSE if the hearing is postponed or no date is set.", "deadline": "2026-10-26", "citations": [ 9 ], "failure_condition": "No trial start date is confirmed as set from the October 23, 2026 hearing by the deadline, including if the hearing is postponed.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-61", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:52.891047+00:00", "seal_sha256": "259caa22e41785596bfd6554c69afe55450de56c2904d37abe85524ccfce7dc4" }, { "statement": "Nepal's National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority reports a confirmed death toll of at least 1,500 from the August-September 2026 Nepal-Tibet floods, reported between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-23.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 55, "resolution": "TRUE if NDRRMA, Nepal's Home Ministry, or two independent wire services report a confirmed death toll of 1,500 or more within the window; FALSE if the reported toll stays below 1,500 throughout.", "deadline": "2026-09-28", "citations": [ 43, 55 ], "failure_condition": "NDRRMA or wire reporting shows the confirmed Nepal-Tibet flood death toll remains below 1,500 through the end of the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-62", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:52.891055+00:00", "seal_sha256": "dc425fe6f8acad27f9d4586ec6ac032ed14ee5ad1fbfbb9c3d5d2fe8160eead1" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry whose vendor or product fields reference SonicWall SMA1000, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "A fetch of the CISA KEV catalog on the deadline shows at least one SMA1000 entry with dateAdded between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 22, 31 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry referencing SonicWall SMA1000 carries a dateAdded value inside the 2026-09-03 to 2026-09-30 window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T23:06:52Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-63", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:53.962240+00:00", "seal_sha256": "43e701511004ea55757c067f3cf130f882d54d11d24122ffbba70ebe7c48a6a3" }, { "statement": "Front-month NYMEX WTI crude settles at or above 100.00 dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 90.59 on the packet date.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 21, "resolution": "CME official settlement data show any front-month CL settlement at or above 100.00 inside the window. Reference level at seal: 90.59.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 79, 82, 109 ], "failure_condition": "Every front-month WTI settlement in the window is below 100.00 dollars.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T23:06:52Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-64", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:53.962264+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2d5a31855aa2f3282715d3c4e807b91ca77b3a832259fe603033b4ed186eb7ba" }, { "statement": "The US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, FRED series DGS10, records a value at or above 5.00 percent on at least one business day between 2026-09-03 and 2026-12-31. Reference: 4.80 percent on the packet date.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 21, "resolution": "FRED series DGS10 shows at least one daily value at or above 5.00 inside the window. Reference level at seal: 4.80 percent.", "deadline": "2027-01-05", "citations": [ 74, 81 ], "failure_condition": "No DGS10 daily value in the window reaches 5.00 percent.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T23:06:52Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-65", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:53.962276+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2db2c2a8b2777ac9225adb03365563588bdbf2fdf321ba749ee11a694bdf601c" }, { "statement": "A lapse in US federal appropriations begins on 2026-10-01 because no full-year appropriations act or continuing resolution covering all agencies is enacted on or before 2026-09-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "Congress.gov shows no enacted government-wide funding measure signed by 2026-09-30 and OPM publicly issues shutdown furlough guidance effective 2026-10-01.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 112, 131 ], "failure_condition": "A funding measure covering all agencies is enacted by 2026-09-30, so no lapse begins on 2026-10-01.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T23:06:52Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-66", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:53.962285+00:00", "seal_sha256": "673bb3b15228d24896c5df73f05aa99b4b9532621416f259008bcda713702b09" }, { "statement": "A continuous suspension of laden tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz lasting at least 72 hours begins between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "At least two of Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, AFP report, citing AIS or tracking data, a continuous 72-hour halt of laden tanker transits beginning inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 82, 109 ], "failure_condition": "Laden tanker transits of the strait continue throughout the window without any continuous 72-hour suspension beginning in it.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T23:06:52Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-67", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:53.962293+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a2553845ed68e6382f48321831cadccf3eda26811f46825214e38b2227d7ec39" }, { "statement": "At least one US military strike on a target inside Iranian territory occurring between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-16 is acknowledged by US official channels and reported by Iranian state media.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "CENTCOM or DoD publicly acknowledges a strike inside Iran occurring in the window, and at least one of IRNA, Tasnim, Press TV reports a strike on Iranian territory in the same window.", "deadline": "2026-09-21", "citations": [ 95, 102, 105 ], "failure_condition": "No strike on Iranian territory occurring inside the window is confirmed by both US official channels and Iranian state media.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T23:06:52Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-68", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:53.962301+00:00", "seal_sha256": "77f0b7d665872997a90014e95ae6a337dbbeeddf8fadda0427428aef9b1807e3" }, { "statement": "A major US grid operator among PJM, MISO, ERCOT, SPP, NYISO, ISO-NE, CAISO declares an Energy Emergency Alert Level 2 or higher effective on a date between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-16.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 36, "resolution": "The public notices archive of at least one named operator shows an EEA Level 2 or Level 3 declaration, or equivalent maximum generation emergency, effective inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 127 ], "failure_condition": "No named operator declares an EEA Level 2 or higher, or equivalent emergency, effective inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3617, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T23:06:52Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-69", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:53.962308+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c3aac1993cfca683a8f6ead5badc859df928b08ede9f9f23bd1062e83f181bde" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent front-month futures settle at or above 110.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 95.33 on the packet date 2026-09-02.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 21, "resolution": "TRUE if the ICE Brent front-month official settlement price equals or exceeds 110.00 on any trading day from 2026-09-03 through 2026-10-30. Reference level 95.33 at seal.", "deadline": "2026-11-02", "citations": [ 79, 82 ], "failure_condition": "Every ICE Brent front-month settlement from 2026-09-03 through 2026-10-30 prints below 110.00 USD per barrel.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T23:06:53Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-70", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:54.913605+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e052988a006802072d3f4f190f756a04447cd68a90621acb5812c7bc6ffa0fcb" }, { "statement": "The US Treasury 10-year constant maturity par yield closes at or above 5.15 percent on at least one business day between 2026-09-03 and 2026-11-30. Reference: 4.80 percent on 2026-09-02.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 21, "resolution": "TRUE if FRED series DGS10 or the Treasury daily par yield curve records a 10-year value of 5.15 or higher on any date from 2026-09-03 through 2026-11-30. Reference 4.80 at seal.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 67, 74, 79 ], "failure_condition": "The DGS10 series maximum across 2026-09-03 through 2026-11-30 stays below 5.15 percent.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T23:06:53Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "notes": "fred is the registered mirror of treasury_h15; source of record: treasury_h15", "id": "KKR-20260902-71", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:54.913628+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4f168b77da1cca73a49cbf964a0578f30887959e78c76e86bd0cd506bbe56a88" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one SonicWall vulnerability with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog JSON contains at least one entry with vendorProject SonicWall and dateAdded from 2026-09-03 through 2026-10-15 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 22, 31 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV catalog holds no SonicWall entry with a dateAdded inside that range when fetched at the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T23:06:53Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-72", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:54.913640+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5a6feb8d3bae089ea350f00fa7957a5d04ba9d2011f81aa4d03e3c704ced8270" }, { "statement": "The HHS Office for Civil Rights breach portal lists an Aesto Health breach affecting 9,500,000 or more individuals, posted between 2026-09-03 and 2026-12-15.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the HHS OCR breach portal shows a single entry naming Aesto Health with individuals affected of 9,500,000 or more and a submission date in that window.", "deadline": "2026-12-18", "citations": [ 34 ], "failure_condition": "No single OCR portal entry naming Aesto Health reaches 9,500,000 individuals affected within that posting window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T23:06:53Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-73", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:54.913651+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8dd81631ed0dc7584857da2e303272feed874d0aa277f30ee19260c215a58b6b" }, { "statement": "Russian official sources confirm UAV interception or debris over Moscow city or Moscow oblast on at least three separate calendar days between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "TRUE if Russian Ministry of Defence or Moscow mayoral statements, echoed by Reuters or AFP, name three or more distinct dates in that window with UAV interception over Moscow.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 93, 94, 114 ], "failure_condition": "Fewer than three distinct calendar days in that window carry an official Russian UAV interception claim over Moscow.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T23:06:53Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-74", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:54.913659+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1e6bc315879e47ca9f18bb707871cfed846c416c129bc20362b561c28cf86ddc" }, { "statement": "A UN OCHA or Nepal NDRRMA report published between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-15 states a confirmed death toll of 1,500 or more from the 2026 Nepal-Tibet floods.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 36, "resolution": "TRUE if an OCHA situation report on ReliefWeb or an NDRRMA bulletin, published in that window, states 1,500 or more confirmed deaths from the 2026 Nepal flood event.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 43, 45, 55 ], "failure_condition": "Every OCHA or NDRRMA report published in that window states a confirmed toll below 1,500.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3617, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T23:06:53Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-75", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:54.913667+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8a94fc068a25f8a87a0ff44d61a88cdc3fe0553cd182064948bf25e8dfcd8eaf" }, { "statement": "WTI crude oil, NYMEX front-month contract, settles at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on any trading day between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-30. Reference: 90.59 USD per barrel on the packet date, 2026-09-02.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 21, "resolution": "TRUE if CME/NYMEX settlement data or EIA daily spot price shows WTI at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on any date in the window; FALSE if no such settlement occurs.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 79, 82 ], "failure_condition": "WTI settlement data shows no daily close at or above 100.00 USD per barrel at any point in the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T23:06:54Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-76", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:55.846147+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f8e427f62fdf29eb28fe4eff5948c882155e2c329131a9e1efa9c2375262074e" }, { "statement": "The 10-year US Treasury note yield closes at or above 5.00 percent on any trading day between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-25. Reference: 4.80 percent on the packet date, 2026-09-02.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 21, "resolution": "TRUE if the Treasury.gov daily par yield curve or FRED series DGS10 records a 10-year close at or above 5.00 percent on any date in the window; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-28", "citations": [ 74, 75 ], "failure_condition": "FRED or Treasury daily yield data shows no 10-year close at or above 5.00 percent within the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T23:06:54Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "notes": "fred is the registered mirror of treasury_h15; source of record: treasury_h15", "id": "KKR-20260902-77", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:55.846168+00:00", "seal_sha256": "824254f4eeaf617ce20c0592ae730a565535f59ce4758dc5026ddfaa1eaf247e" }, { "statement": "CISA adds a SonicWall SMA1000 vulnerability tied to the zero-days reported as actively exploited on 2026-09-02 to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog, with dateAdded between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-23.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog lists a SonicWall SMA1000 CVE with dateAdded inside the window; FALSE if no such entry appears by the deadline.", "deadline": "2026-09-28", "citations": [ 22, 31 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog carries no SonicWall SMA1000 entry with a dateAdded value inside the window by the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T23:06:54Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-78", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:55.846179+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d66587b2caceb69eae6743f11c71ac8f322d70bce9dad899d21412314baa41b2" }, { "statement": "CISA adds a GeoNetwork remote-code-execution vulnerability, the unauthenticated RCE chain reported affecting government geoportal backends on 2026-09-02, to the KEV catalog, with dateAdded between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-23.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog lists a GeoNetwork-related CVE with dateAdded inside the window; FALSE if no such entry appears by the deadline.", "deadline": "2026-09-28", "citations": [ 24 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog carries no GeoNetwork-related entry with a dateAdded value inside the window by the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T23:06:54Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-79", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:55.846188+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0422029f4b1159667afdbacb7fbb8db20d70a97dec4e4627a31b25c09c70acc4" }, { "statement": "[withheld] Fourth District Court sets a specific trial start date for Tyler Robinson, the man charged with murdering Charlie Kirk, at the scheduled October 23, 2026 hearing.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 36, "resolution": "TRUE if [withheld] Fourth District Court records or a wire service confirm a trial start date was set at the October 23, 2026 hearing; FALSE if the hearing is postponed or no date is set.", "deadline": "2026-10-26", "citations": [ 9 ], "failure_condition": "No trial start date is confirmed as set from the October 23, 2026 hearing by the deadline, including if the hearing is postponed.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3574, "n": 249, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T23:06:54Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-80", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:55.846197+00:00", "seal_sha256": "37286708ed718ab5266ac8d1949d50c80e8087d1da41b58b335dab380af28858" }, { "statement": "Nepal's National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority reports a confirmed death toll of at least 1,500 from the August-September 2026 Nepal-Tibet floods, reported between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-23.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 36, "resolution": "TRUE if NDRRMA, Nepal's Home Ministry, or two independent wire services report a confirmed death toll of 1,500 or more within the window; FALSE if the reported toll stays below 1,500 throughout.", "deadline": "2026-09-28", "citations": [ 43, 55 ], "failure_condition": "NDRRMA or wire reporting shows the confirmed Nepal-Tibet flood death toll remains below 1,500 through the end of the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3617, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-02T23:06:54Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260902-81", "date_issued": "2026-09-02", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-02T23:06:55.846206+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6c570eaa275fa2239a0d2ce0f60fb8f49864eb0800052eff24e036dd0493aa72" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-31 the United States government and the government of Iran each publicly confirm a ceasefire, truce, or mutual halt to strikes between the two states.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if official statements from both the US government (White House, State Department, or Pentagon) and Iran (Foreign Ministry, SNSC, or Supreme Leader office) confirm a bilateral ceasefire or halt to strikes announced between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-31.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 82, 102, 95 ], "failure_condition": "As of 2026-10-31 no ceasefire, truce, or mutual halt to strikes between the United States and Iran has been confirmed by both governments.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-01", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T00:31:48.468916+00:00", "seal_sha256": "99c3f41d9b0e90188b38cb8ee7688125ff4c20480e7fc1d41c9c7193e5f30fb1" }, { "statement": "The EIA daily WTI Cushing spot price (FRED series DCOILWTICO) is at or above 100.00 dollars per barrel on at least one observation date between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-02. Reference: WTI 90.59 on the packet date 2026-09-02.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 40, "resolution": "TRUE if the FRED series DCOILWTICO (EIA Cushing WTI spot, daily) shows a value of 100.00 or higher for any observation date from 2026-09-03 through 2026-10-02 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 79, 82, 109 ], "failure_condition": "Every DCOILWTICO observation from 2026-09-03 through 2026-10-02 is below 100.00.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-02", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T00:31:48.468938+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b8e09d343aba25adeacb45bb650d029083e277aff099db453206638ee5282351" }, { "statement": "The BLS Employment Situation release scheduled for 2026-09-04 reports a first-estimate change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August 2026 below +75,000. Reference: ADP private payrolls +38,000 for August, reported 2026-09-02.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 55, "resolution": "TRUE if the seasonally adjusted change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August 2026, as first printed in the BLS Employment Situation news release dated 2026-09-04, is less than +75,000; later revisions are ignored.", "deadline": "2026-09-09", "citations": [ 67, 75 ], "failure_condition": "The first-printed August 2026 total nonfarm payroll change in the 2026-09-04 release is +75,000 or higher, or the release is not published on 2026-09-04.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-03", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T00:31:48.468949+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d8be3e4191f75b7d735f15e6a3cf52c6648a2c0966d176439427fd3e49c43b23", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [67] carry the claim's operative terms (august, less, payroll, private); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one CVE with vendorProject SonicWall and a product field naming SMA1000 or SMA 1000 series appliances, with dateAdded between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-16.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 75, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog JSON feed contains an entry with vendorProject SonicWall, product containing SMA1000 or SMA 1000, and dateAdded between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-16 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 22, 31 ], "failure_condition": "As of 2026-09-18 the KEV catalog contains no SonicWall SMA1000 entry with dateAdded between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-16, including if the entry carries an earlier or later dateAdded.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-04", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T00:31:48.468959+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d24e46f986651158b319be9f2982911016e1e8fb6f95443ee46ac8bd438acd53" }, { "statement": "A lapse in US federal appropriations begins on 2026-10-01: no law providing FY2027 appropriations, full-year or continuing, for every federal department is enacted by the end of 2026-09-30, and OMB or at least one department issues lapse or shutdown guidance effective 2026-10-01.", "domain": "political", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if Congress.gov shows no enacted law providing FY2027 appropriations, full-year or continuing, for every federal department by 2026-09-30, and OMB or at least one department publishes lapse or shutdown guidance effective 2026-10-01.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 131 ], "failure_condition": "A law providing FY2027 appropriations, full-year or continuing, for every federal department is enacted on or before 2026-09-30, so no department begins a lapse on 2026-10-01.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-05", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T00:31:48.468968+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c05d677d976553d50d13ea21e6cbf19db9e987368321fdb503cab734f403b309" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-30 the Council of the EU adopts a new numbered package of sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine, with the legal acts published in the Official Journal of the European Union.", "domain": "political", "probability": 50, "resolution": "TRUE if the Official Journal (EUR-Lex) publishes Council legal acts, dated between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-30, that the Council press release describes as a new numbered sanctions package against Russia; extensions or delistings alone do not count.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 85, 107 ], "failure_condition": "The EU adopts no new numbered Russia sanctions package with Official Journal publication dated between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-30.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-06", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T00:31:48.468976+00:00", "seal_sha256": "baae09ca0a84a1f2806351d66e1b30bba5eebf8d2c23c3f70c4e6c7db3eb33cd" }, { "statement": "The combined official confirmed death toll (excluding missing) from the Nepal-Tibet flood disaster reported from late August 2026 reaches at least 1,500 on any date between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-15. Reference: reported passing 1,000 on 2026-09-01.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if Nepal NDRRMA figures, or two of Reuters, AP, AFP citing officials, put the combined confirmed death toll (excluding missing) for the late-August 2026 Nepal-Tibet floods at 1,500 or more on any date from 2026-09-03 through 2026-10-15.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 55, 45, 43 ], "failure_condition": "Official confirmed death counts (excluding missing) for the disaster remain below 1,500 combined on every date through 2026-10-15.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-07", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T00:31:48.468984+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a4932c5183f880853a79724fcdca10a2211368cc5fc84eadff47780f2e6ca6ea" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-31 the United States government and the government of Iran each publicly confirm a ceasefire, truce, or mutual halt to strikes between the two states.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "TRUE if official statements from both the US government (White House, State Department, or Pentagon) and Iran (Foreign Ministry, SNSC, or Supreme Leader office) confirm a bilateral ceasefire or halt to strikes announced between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-31.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 82, 102, 95 ], "failure_condition": "As of 2026-10-31 no ceasefire, truce, or mutual halt to strikes between the United States and Iran has been confirmed by both governments.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T00:31:48Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-08", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T00:31:49.536721+00:00", "seal_sha256": "263df797ba6b00bce9f10f230623ac0e3dd780b04439a703fb99b562a01a5b71" }, { "statement": "The EIA daily WTI Cushing spot price (FRED series DCOILWTICO) is at or above 100.00 dollars per barrel on at least one observation date between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-02. Reference: WTI 90.59 on the packet date 2026-09-02.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 21, "resolution": "TRUE if the FRED series DCOILWTICO (EIA Cushing WTI spot, daily) shows a value of 100.00 or higher for any observation date from 2026-09-03 through 2026-10-02 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 79, 82, 109 ], "failure_condition": "Every DCOILWTICO observation from 2026-09-03 through 2026-10-02 is below 100.00.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T00:31:48Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-09", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T00:31:49.536747+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7f138d2867bc30fdf07760a0fd4be2b442e48e8947c0f5bb1c5a7ae46da3d7c5" }, { "statement": "The BLS Employment Situation release scheduled for 2026-09-04 reports a first-estimate change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August 2026 below +75,000. Reference: ADP private payrolls +38,000 for August, reported 2026-09-02.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 21, "resolution": "TRUE if the seasonally adjusted change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August 2026, as first printed in the BLS Employment Situation news release dated 2026-09-04, is less than +75,000; later revisions are ignored.", "deadline": "2026-09-09", "citations": [ 67, 75 ], "failure_condition": "The first-printed August 2026 total nonfarm payroll change in the 2026-09-04 release is +75,000 or higher, or the release is not published on 2026-09-04.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T00:31:48Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-10", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T00:31:49.536758+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c1978f228b86a4d8a8e3d9e07ca3f0b1f9b0d90cdbb9303185e8a17d821fd385", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one CVE with vendorProject SonicWall and a product field naming SMA1000 or SMA 1000 series appliances, with dateAdded between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-16.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog JSON feed contains an entry with vendorProject SonicWall, product containing SMA1000 or SMA 1000, and dateAdded between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-16 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 22, 31 ], "failure_condition": "As of 2026-09-18 the KEV catalog contains no SonicWall SMA1000 entry with dateAdded between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-16, including if the entry carries an earlier or later dateAdded.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T00:31:48Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-11", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T00:31:49.536766+00:00", "seal_sha256": "88c0045e58eb9d6a10fdc3b247c86d3645f522634ac9b246aa8c8072d318657a" }, { "statement": "A lapse in US federal appropriations begins on 2026-10-01: no law providing FY2027 appropriations, full-year or continuing, for every federal department is enacted by the end of 2026-09-30, and OMB or at least one department issues lapse or shutdown guidance effective 2026-10-01.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if Congress.gov shows no enacted law providing FY2027 appropriations, full-year or continuing, for every federal department by 2026-09-30, and OMB or at least one department publishes lapse or shutdown guidance effective 2026-10-01.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 131 ], "failure_condition": "A law providing FY2027 appropriations, full-year or continuing, for every federal department is enacted on or before 2026-09-30, so no department begins a lapse on 2026-10-01.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T00:31:48Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-12", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T00:31:49.536774+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c85cf0fb73a4d75e0a85532244ed0443e07b1d384af0eb11b1e2a88ecbd2cf22" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-30 the Council of the EU adopts a new numbered package of sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine, with the legal acts published in the Official Journal of the European Union.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if the Official Journal (EUR-Lex) publishes Council legal acts, dated between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-30, that the Council press release describes as a new numbered sanctions package against Russia; extensions or delistings alone do not count.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 85, 107 ], "failure_condition": "The EU adopts no new numbered Russia sanctions package with Official Journal publication dated between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-30.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T00:31:48Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-13", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T00:31:49.536783+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b21c6016a6b9d45f85968a82a2662bca0435fc57d81a3ae25dff39e2c76962d4" }, { "statement": "The combined official confirmed death toll (excluding missing) from the Nepal-Tibet flood disaster reported from late August 2026 reaches at least 1,500 on any date between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-15. Reference: reported passing 1,000 on 2026-09-01.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 36, "resolution": "TRUE if Nepal NDRRMA figures, or two of Reuters, AP, AFP citing officials, put the combined confirmed death toll (excluding missing) for the late-August 2026 Nepal-Tibet floods at 1,500 or more on any date from 2026-09-03 through 2026-10-15.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 55, 45, 43 ], "failure_condition": "Official confirmed death counts (excluding missing) for the disaster remain below 1,500 combined on every date through 2026-10-15.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3617, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T00:31:48Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-02_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-14", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-02_1520.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T00:31:49.536789+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ec34353d7f5f66bbe606ae90acff9ed290bfdbba626bac3d5eb7c6e65ed5eb1c" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, at least one confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-83548 will be reported by two or more independent sources.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "At least one confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-83548 is reported by two or more independent sources between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.", "deadline": "2026-10-08", "citations": [ 8 ], "failure_condition": "No confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-83548 is reported by two or more independent sources during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260903-15", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T15:20:04.435549+00:00", "seal_sha256": "574a590a3a34995110251bd12e5d5311e866ebe3caf63e3fbd86239614fbbd49" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, the Netherlands will publicly confirm the transfer of at least $5 billion in gold from the United States to Canada or the United Kingdom.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 35, "resolution": "The Netherlands publicly confirms the transfer of at least $5 billion in gold from the United States to Canada or the United Kingdom between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 56 ], "failure_condition": "The Netherlands does not publicly confirm the transfer of at least $5 billion in gold from the U.S. to Canada or the U.K. during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260903-16", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T15:20:04.435576+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8675c9f7b00ad4e7dfd039ba39d526f704d98aeb0ed4e5e9ccdc30716e408286" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake will be recorded by the USGS in the South Sandwich Islands region.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 20, "resolution": "The USGS records a magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake in the South Sandwich Islands region between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.", "deadline": "2026-10-07", "citations": [ 55 ], "failure_condition": "No magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake is recorded by the USGS in the South Sandwich Islands region during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260903-17", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T15:20:04.435591+00:00", "seal_sha256": "419cd24acac29b39a29a6f9e32fdddd05bf3fa6426297fb779051896756a2067" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, Iran will launch a missile strike against a target in Kuwait City, confirmed by at least two independent sources.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 15, "resolution": "Iran launches a missile strike against a target in Kuwait City, confirmed by at least two independent sources between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.", "deadline": "2026-10-09", "citations": [ 83 ], "failure_condition": "No missile strike against a target in Kuwait City is confirmed by at least two independent sources during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260903-18", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T15:20:04.435600+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8c036a65787455225969291acbcf8c567d65c4b9f2b76b6203e29ef82e67a5a1" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, the Brent crude oil price will exceed $100 per barrel on at least one trading day.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 40, "resolution": "The Brent crude oil price exceeds $100 per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 5 ], "failure_condition": "The Brent crude oil price never exceeds $100 per barrel during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260903-19", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T15:20:04.435610+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c39d9d8a80984897ea998e32e4aaa28666b75734f61828fd381e0fb3583ee907" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-48710 will be reported by two or more independent sources.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 28, "resolution": "A confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-48710 is reported by two or more independent sources between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.", "deadline": "2026-10-08", "citations": [ 8 ], "failure_condition": "No confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-48710 is reported by two or more independent sources during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260903-20", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T15:20:04.435621+00:00", "seal_sha256": "04b9151262b5d6f85492b21e190e740f1c23ad268df3188748e74baea9fdac8b" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a magnitude 5.5 or higher earthquake will be recorded by the USGS in China.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 18, "resolution": "The USGS records a magnitude 5.5 or higher earthquake in China between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.", "deadline": "2026-10-07", "citations": [ 34 ], "failure_condition": "No magnitude 5.5 or higher earthquake is recorded by the USGS in China during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260903-21", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T15:20:04.435628+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0a1b8c677c4ed6e5aa092caa0f5f8409db8126825ddebbb511b2cf67558569c5" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-9586 will be reported by two or more independent sources.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 22, "resolution": "A confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-9586 is reported by two or more independent sources between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.", "deadline": "2026-10-08", "citations": [ 8 ], "failure_condition": "No confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-9586 is reported by two or more independent sources during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260903-22", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T15:20:04.435636+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f9699a896dda4b390bc21c6769af676021e26c8560e38eba3b4d74cb88d6959a" }, { "statement": "Iran or an Iran-aligned force conducts another confirmed strike (drone, missile, or cruise) against a target inside Kuwait or another Gulf Cooperation Council state between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-19.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "Two independently-biased outlets (for example a Western wire service and a Gulf or Iran-aligned channel) confirm a Kuwait or GCC-territory strike attributed to Iran or an Iran-aligned force occurring between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-19, checked by 2026-09-21.", "deadline": "2026-09-21", "citations": [ 83, 84, 113 ], "failure_condition": "No cross-bias-corroborated strike attributed to Iran or an Iran-aligned actor against Kuwaiti or other GCC territory is confirmed in the 2026-09-05 to 2026-09-19 window as of 2026-09-21.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-23", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:46.437820+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e6a4bf847e199a30a28d9e0e4803d98778a2f5d3b93c78af702a4a1c2598f424" }, { "statement": "A named Ukrainian government body announces disciplinary action, criminal charges, or a completed inquiry finding against personnel involved in the September 2, 2026 SBU-HUR shootout in Kyiv, with the announcement occurring between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-03.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 22, "resolution": "A Ukrainian official body publicly announces a named finding, charge, or disciplinary measure tied to the incident, occurring between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-03, confirmed by two outlets by 2026-10-05.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 86, 115 ], "failure_condition": "No Ukrainian official body publicly announces a named finding, charge, or disciplinary measure tied to the incident in the 2026-09-05 to 2026-10-03 window as of 2026-10-05.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-24", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:46.437843+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7918b55ab98e6dfb5958af1bf179624d2324d3e735f9799bfb83223774af46c7" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above 90.00 USD/bbl on 2026-09-25. Reference: 96.70 on the packet date (2026-09-03).", "domain": "economic", "probability": 60, "resolution": "ICE Brent front-month futures daily settlement price on 2026-09-25 is 90.00 USD/bbl or higher, per exchange settlement data.", "deadline": "2026-09-25", "citations": [ 71, 84 ], "failure_condition": "The 2026-09-25 ICE Brent front-month settlement price closes below 90.00 USD/bbl.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-25", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:46.437855+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8c1e95a204fba83b05b29b381fa19aa789a18e4a8b5952532e34b7910c263c58" }, { "statement": "COMEX gold front-month futures settle at or above 4300.00 USD/oz on 2026-09-25. Reference: 4546.20 on the packet date (2026-09-03).", "domain": "economic", "probability": 68, "resolution": "COMEX gold front-month futures daily settlement price on 2026-09-25 is 4300.00 USD/oz or higher, per exchange settlement data.", "deadline": "2026-09-25", "citations": [ 56, 96 ], "failure_condition": "The 2026-09-25 COMEX gold front-month settlement price closes below 4300.00 USD/oz.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-26", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:46.437865+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5ad653f771cb046a31783bb4c3b429a9d53fd8114e3afe0e5d5ec89965cf23ad" }, { "statement": "The FOMC holds its federal funds target range unchanged at its September 15-16, 2026 meeting. Reference: 3.50-3.75 percent target range in effect on the packet date.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 72, "resolution": "The FOMC post-meeting statement released 2026-09-16 states the target range is unchanged from 3.50-3.75 percent.", "deadline": "2026-09-16", "citations": [ 66 ], "failure_condition": "The FOMC statement released 2026-09-16 announces any change to the 3.50-3.75 percent target range.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-27", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:46.437872+00:00", "seal_sha256": "eee3b4a6173965907078462901eb68e25b964c03c3b4eb12b2580cafaffe3895" }, { "statement": "Leon Black either appears for a rescheduled House Oversight Committee deposition or is formally held in contempt of Congress in connection with the Epstein-probe subpoena, between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-17.", "domain": "political", "probability": 25, "resolution": "House Oversight Committee records or a wire-service report confirm either a completed Leon Black deposition or a committee contempt vote or referral occurring between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-17, checked by 2026-10-19.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 57, 106, 114 ], "failure_condition": "Neither a completed Leon Black deposition nor a formal contempt vote or referral occurs in the 2026-09-05 to 2026-10-17 window as of 2026-10-19.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-28", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:46.437880+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8a4dfc7f0cfe11df0b09c5245ba1fed0d118eecc81f77ee6d604dee527ef7cb8" }, { "statement": "The Bank of Japan raises its short-term policy interest rate at the Monetary Policy Meeting concluding 2026-09-18, to a level above the rate in effect on 2026-09-03.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 55, "resolution": "The Statement on Monetary Policy published on boj.or.jp for the MPM concluding 2026-09-18 sets the uncollateralized overnight call rate guideline above the level in effect on 2026-09-03.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 63 ], "failure_condition": "The BoJ statement for the meeting concluding 2026-09-18 leaves the policy rate unchanged or lowers it.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-29", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:47.709734+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1649c6a6e494017f1dd97f2c87fdc6d89e6e593c2d69fed591f061961200fd50" }, { "statement": "Brent crude trades above 110.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-02. Reference: 96.70 on the packet date.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The FRED series DCOILBRENTEU (EIA Brent Europe spot) reports a daily value strictly above 110.00 for at least one observation dated 2026-09-04 through 2026-10-02 inclusive. Reference: 96.70 on the packet date.", "deadline": "2026-10-09", "citations": [ 71, 84, 113 ], "failure_condition": "No DCOILBRENTEU observation dated 2026-09-04 through 2026-10-02 exceeds 110.00.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-30", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:47.709755+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b26a853562b350c9182902c802f049f6a06ab5e347245eca585da24e4c251195" }, { "statement": "CISA adds at least one CVE whose KEV vendorProject or product field names Elementor to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 20, "resolution": "The CISA KEV JSON feed (cisa.gov known-exploited-vulnerabilities.json) contains an entry whose vendorProject or product field includes Elementor and whose dateAdded is from 2026-09-03 through 2026-09-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 14 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry with dateAdded between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-30 names Elementor in its vendorProject or product field.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-31", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:47.709766+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ed0d1594df2f468d2eb9b70dd817891d94611860e7ae1a73376110a32b1172e3" }, { "statement": "The US House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform votes to approve a report or resolution recommending that Leon Black be held in contempt of Congress between 2026-09-03 and 2026-12-18.", "domain": "political", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The committee website (oversight.house.gov) or Congress.gov records a committee vote approving a contempt of Congress report or resolution naming Leon Black, held on a date from 2026-09-03 through 2026-12-18 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-12-22", "citations": [ 57, 114, 106 ], "failure_condition": "No House Oversight Committee vote approving a contempt report or resolution against Leon Black occurs between 2026-09-03 and 2026-12-18, whether because none is scheduled, it is postponed, or he complies.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-32", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:47.709775+00:00", "seal_sha256": "dbf59cf8de9405c36a1d1f622255c39206963404caa23c22ba2415c87a54a74f" }, { "statement": "The US Department of Defense announces the death of at least one US service member from hostile action in the CENTCOM area of responsibility, with a date of death between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-01.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 40, "resolution": "A casualty release on defense.gov identifies at least one US service member whose death is attributed to hostile action or enemy attack in the CENTCOM area of responsibility, with date of death 2026-09-04 through 2026-10-01 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 83, 84, 113, 109 ], "failure_condition": "No DoD casualty release attributes any US service member death in the CENTCOM area of responsibility to hostile action with a date of death between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-01.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-33", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:47.709784+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e472f64c58348bbd8ae3111c9ca727e396930112d4e011b836e024d8ade783fc" }, { "statement": "The USGS catalog records an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater with epicenter within 300 km of the 2026-09-03 M6.3 event 84 km SSW of Nikolski, Alaska (us7000tdvt), with origin time between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-03.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 15, "resolution": "The USGS earthquake catalog (earthquake.usgs.gov) lists an event with magnitude 6.0 or greater, epicenter within 300 km of event us7000tdvt, and origin time from 2026-09-04 00:00 UTC through 2026-10-03 23:59 UTC.", "deadline": "2026-10-07", "citations": [ 31, 44 ], "failure_condition": "No USGS catalog event of magnitude 6.0 or greater with epicenter within 300 km of us7000tdvt has an origin time between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-03.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-34", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:47.709793+00:00", "seal_sha256": "25598037ea29482bb758477b965396e4824f11b7bd9cf77b7b279f98612c0776" }, { "statement": "The NOAA CPC weekly Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly reaches at least +2.0 degrees C for at least one week dated between 2026-09-07 and 2026-12-28.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 60, "resolution": "The NOAA CPC weekly SST anomaly table (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for) shows a Nino 3.4 anomaly of 2.0 or higher for any week whose listed date falls from 2026-09-07 through 2026-12-28 inclusive.", "deadline": "2027-01-06", "citations": [ 78, 100, 107 ], "failure_condition": "Every weekly Nino 3.4 anomaly value listed for weeks dated 2026-09-07 through 2026-12-28 is below 2.0.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-35", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:47.709801+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d9adccd454bc0d55761aad58a48a7644c2f9ce71d08651941a9c9675fbacdddf" }, { "statement": "UK Home Office figures record 900 or more people arriving in the UK by small boat on at least one single day between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The Home Office small boat arrivals dataset on gov.uk (migrants detected crossing the English Channel in small boats) shows a daily arrivals figure of 900 or more for at least one date from 2026-09-04 through 2026-10-31 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 10 ], "failure_condition": "No single day between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-31 has a Home Office recorded small boat arrivals figure of 900 or more.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-36", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:47.709809+00:00", "seal_sha256": "31cc358cc95301f1f4943bece0a9bc323278d177e6e4f10cb321e888105c92e1" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-02, Ukrainian forces strike at least one target inside internationally recognized Russian territory 200 km or more from the Russia-Ukraine border, acknowledged by both a Russian official source and a Ukrainian official or military-intelligence source.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 92, "resolution": "Resolves TRUE if a strike meeting the statement, occurring in the window, is acknowledged by at least one Russian official source (MoD or regional governor) and one Ukrainian official source; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 89 ], "failure_condition": "No strike 200 km or deeper inside Russia occurring within the window is acknowledged by both a Russian official source and a Ukrainian official source by the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-37", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:48.601069+00:00", "seal_sha256": "abca5e21bb13aa2b2643d8e3c2b4bdd358830d9617d5e2054811fa94e0124de1" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-04, the government or state news agency of Qatar (QNA) or Bahrain (BNA) confirms an Iranian missile or drone striking, or being intercepted over, its national territory.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 65, "resolution": "Resolves TRUE on official Qatari or Bahraini government or state-agency confirmation of an Iranian projectile striking or intercepted over its territory within the window, corroborated by at least one international wire service; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-07", "citations": [ 83, 84, 113 ], "failure_condition": "Neither Qatar nor Bahrain officially confirms any Iranian strike on or interception over its territory occurring within the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-38", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:48.601091+00:00", "seal_sha256": "bf7f8610555cb48cfdd1cdf7a35ca7a2ff46fb95b29803520133561f03ad4316" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-31, a decree published on the official website of the President of Ukraine removes the serving head of the SBU or the serving head of the GUR from that post.", "domain": "political", "probability": 55, "resolution": "Resolves TRUE if a presidential decree dated within the window and published at president.gov.ua removes the incumbent SBU chief or GUR chief; reassignment to another post counts as removal; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 86, 115 ], "failure_condition": "No presidential decree dated within the window removes the incumbent head of the SBU or the GUR.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-39", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:48.601103+00:00", "seal_sha256": "77cb86dac967506caff947f825c044cfbeab520abc5d6bd2963fb56441d7fe68" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent crude front-month futures record a daily settlement at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-30. Reference: Brent 96.70 at packet seal on 2026-09-03.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 72, "resolution": "Resolves TRUE if any official ICE Brent front-month daily settlement between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-30 is at or above 100.00 USD; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 71, 84 ], "failure_condition": "Every ICE Brent front-month daily settlement in the window is below 100.00 USD.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-40", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:48.601113+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6011058d406b0b84fde83225a9b291f643bb89e66b33b669da320f17d1a1c2df" }, { "statement": "The Federal Open Market Committee leaves the federal funds target range unchanged at its scheduled September 2026 meeting, per the FOMC statement posted at federalreserve.gov.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 85, "resolution": "Resolves TRUE if the September 2026 FOMC statement maintains the pre-meeting federal funds target range with no change; any increase or cut resolves FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-21", "citations": [ 66, 74 ], "failure_condition": "The September 2026 FOMC statement announces a change to the federal funds target range.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-41", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:48.601121+00:00", "seal_sha256": "210197196837aab8368d5d5b603d844bd735134da4e4bbe22305c4535d9a8bc0" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry whose vendor, product, or vulnerability name field contains Elementor, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-02 inclusive.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 40, "resolution": "Resolves TRUE if the public CISA KEV JSON feed contains an entry naming Elementor with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-02 inclusive; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 14, 25 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry naming Elementor carries a dateAdded value within the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-42", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:48.601129+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b818e6eeb63cdae3e58b3f78b225d408da719a28e155a59d5b4f595c3764d68c" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry whose vendor or product field names CrowdStrike, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-04 and 2026-11-30 inclusive.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 18, "resolution": "Resolves TRUE if the public CISA KEV JSON feed contains an entry with vendor or product naming CrowdStrike and a dateAdded value between 2026-09-04 and 2026-11-30 inclusive; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-12-03", "citations": [ 24 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry naming CrowdStrike as vendor or product carries a dateAdded value within the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-43", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:48.601140+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2ec80311ad578ae4dcac8b96273394f4c0fecdc0bbb7a110cac43b839ff3e18b" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-04 and 2026-12-04, the USGS earthquake catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater with an epicenter within 300 km of USGS event us7000tdvt, the 2026-09-03 M6.3 near Nikolski, Alaska.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 30, "resolution": "Resolves TRUE if a USGS ComCat query returns any event of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 300 km of the us7000tdvt epicenter with origin time inside the window; catalog values as of the deadline govern.", "deadline": "2026-12-08", "citations": [ 31, 44 ], "failure_condition": "No event of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 300 km of the us7000tdvt epicenter, per catalog values at the deadline, has an origin time inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-44", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:48.601147+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9fa928c64197ad099dc403b218cbe1f6ed14344ee10dd851191d0e2532248091" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-04, at least one additional munition impact on the sovereign territory of Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or the United Arab Emirates is publicly attributed to Iran or Iran-aligned forces by the host government.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 58, "resolution": "MET if two of Reuters, AP, AFP report a munition impact on one of those five states dated inside the window, and that host government publicly attributes the impact to Iran or Iran-aligned forces.", "deadline": "2026-10-08", "citations": [ 83, 84, 113 ], "failure_condition": "No munition impact inside the five named states during the window carries a host-government attribution to Iran or Iran-aligned forces.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-45", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:49.502683+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9f82a887b7bcc0271978933a4fa34d1213cd323bd20ee86c7befc418a5347405" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-04 and 2026-12-04, commercial transit of the Strait of Hormuz halts for at least 72 consecutive hours.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 12, "resolution": "MET if Reuters and either Bloomberg or Lloyds List report a continuous period of at least 72 hours inside the window in which no laden commercial tanker transited the Strait of Hormuz.", "deadline": "2026-12-09", "citations": [ 71, 84 ], "failure_condition": "Commercial tanker traffic through the Strait continues through the window with no continuous stoppage reaching 72 hours.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-46", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:49.502707+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5f73a3b26a085f57659aa04e85e1ffed07484e6080b4057bc4c9985012c04611" }, { "statement": "The FOMC statement issued on 2026-09-16 leaves the federal funds target range unchanged from the range in effect on the packet date. Reference: target range 3.50 to 3.75 percent on 2026-09-03.", "domain": "economics_markets", "probability": 85, "resolution": "MET if the FOMC statement published on federalreserve.gov on 2026-09-16 maintains the federal funds target range at the level in effect on 2026-09-03.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 66, 71, 74 ], "failure_condition": "The 2026-09-16 FOMC statement sets a target range different from the one in effect on the packet date.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-47", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:49.502717+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1dbd6922009e508028729c45e040c67870705f8443008d54903e17ce209f92cb" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent front-month futures settle at or below 88.00 dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-11-06. Reference: 96.70 on the packet date.", "domain": "economics_markets", "probability": 55, "resolution": "MET if the ICE published settlement price for the Brent front-month contract is 88.00 dollars or lower on any trading day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-11-06 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-10", "citations": [ 71, 84 ], "failure_condition": "Every ICE Brent front-month settlement inside the window prints above 88.00 dollars per barrel.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-48", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:49.502726+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6da8ed8d57090c4a9181512a6687d5b4abaefe2811a3dee6a79a166c089bec55" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog carries an entry naming CrowdStrike as the vendor with a date-added value between 2026-09-04 and 2027-01-29.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 10, "resolution": "MET if the CISA KEV catalog JSON contains a record whose vendorProject field is CrowdStrike and whose dateAdded value falls between 2026-09-04 and 2027-01-29 inclusive.", "deadline": "2027-02-02", "citations": [ 24 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV catalog holds no CrowdStrike record with a date-added value inside that range.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-49", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:49.502735+00:00", "seal_sha256": "152aba94af45b4c26adf08f13794226dda3ac3498a06a366f987d67cf01c73c1" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog gains at least 50 new entries with date-added values between 2026-09-08 and 2026-11-02 inclusive.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "MET if a count of CISA KEV catalog records whose dateAdded value falls between 2026-09-08 and 2026-11-02 inclusive reaches 50 or more.", "deadline": "2026-11-06", "citations": [ 25 ], "failure_condition": "Fewer than 50 KEV records carry a date-added value inside that range.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-50", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:49.502744+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ae8e6b68ff47be786db3f542b6219cce4ee4df0288827e191396de9dc9b388d5" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-04 and 2026-11-04, Ukraine issues a notice of suspicion against at least one serving SBU or HUR officer over the Kyiv inter-agency shootout.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 45, "resolution": "MET if the Prosecutor General office, the SBU, or the State Bureau of Investigation publicly announces a notice of suspicion naming a serving SBU or HUR officer in connection with the Kyiv shootout.", "deadline": "2026-11-09", "citations": [ 86, 115 ], "failure_condition": "No Ukrainian prosecuting body announces a notice of suspicion against a serving SBU or HUR officer over that incident inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-51", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:49.502752+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8f3e03857528d7b7ad8256e0967bb1d9aa19aaca459d63825fbfffa5b5e33774" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-11, the House Committee on Oversight approves a resolution recommending that Leon Black be held in contempt of Congress.", "domain": "political", "probability": 20, "resolution": "MET if a markup record or roll call published on oversight.house.gov shows committee approval of a contempt resolution naming Leon Black, dated between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-11.", "deadline": "2026-12-16", "citations": [ 57, 106, 114 ], "failure_condition": "The committee record shows no approved contempt resolution naming Leon Black inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-52", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:49.502761+00:00", "seal_sha256": "bfa027a0d1d576727cfa8c5d2c4eef70809c25b55a7420b102b5636703472c25" }, { "statement": "The NOAA CPC Oceanic Nino Index value for the September-October-November 2026 season is at or above plus 2.0 degrees Celsius. Reference: UN and BoM record El Nino forecasts on the packet date.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 50, "resolution": "MET if the CPC Oceanic Nino Index table on the CPC site lists a SON 2026 value of 2.0 or greater when read on the deadline.", "deadline": "2026-12-18", "citations": [ 78, 100, 107 ], "failure_condition": "The CPC ONI table lists a SON 2026 value below plus 2.0, or lists no value for that season.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-53", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:49.502767+00:00", "seal_sha256": "462bbb8c50d34a9225284443b580bcf8def1914a105d6a8b18d6d172b3a33cb0" }, { "statement": "Iran or an Iran-aligned force conducts another confirmed strike (drone, missile, or cruise) against a target inside Kuwait or another Gulf Cooperation Council state between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-19.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "Two independently-biased outlets (for example a Western wire service and a Gulf or Iran-aligned channel) confirm a Kuwait or GCC-territory strike attributed to Iran or an Iran-aligned force occurring between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-19, checked by 2026-09-21.", "deadline": "2026-09-21", "citations": [ 83, 84, 113 ], "failure_condition": "No cross-bias-corroborated strike attributed to Iran or an Iran-aligned actor against Kuwaiti or other GCC territory is confirmed in the 2026-09-05 to 2026-09-19 window as of 2026-09-21.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:49Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-54", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:50.504365+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e738af73a34aa17782db9af3178f39b37e0252d475a9f71c604531238ea43edd" }, { "statement": "A named Ukrainian government body announces disciplinary action, criminal charges, or a completed inquiry finding against personnel involved in the September 2, 2026 SBU-HUR shootout in Kyiv, with the announcement occurring between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-03.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "A Ukrainian official body publicly announces a named finding, charge, or disciplinary measure tied to the incident, occurring between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-03, confirmed by two outlets by 2026-10-05.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 86, 115 ], "failure_condition": "No Ukrainian official body publicly announces a named finding, charge, or disciplinary measure tied to the incident in the 2026-09-05 to 2026-10-03 window as of 2026-10-05.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:49Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-55", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:50.504388+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8cc881028443a4a7e4770732b3a8db46873230c6dc391229d8dcd8c55c002181" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above 90.00 USD/bbl on 2026-09-25. Reference: 96.70 on the packet date (2026-09-03).", "domain": "economic", "probability": 21, "resolution": "ICE Brent front-month futures daily settlement price on 2026-09-25 is 90.00 USD/bbl or higher, per exchange settlement data.", "deadline": "2026-09-25", "citations": [ 71, 84 ], "failure_condition": "The 2026-09-25 ICE Brent front-month settlement price closes below 90.00 USD/bbl.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:49Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-56", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:50.504400+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9d412e0e7070b30d308961ee28ee1664308f6f320406e4332c0b34aa0131e26f" }, { "statement": "COMEX gold front-month futures settle at or above 4300.00 USD/oz on 2026-09-25. Reference: 4546.20 on the packet date (2026-09-03).", "domain": "economic", "probability": 21, "resolution": "COMEX gold front-month futures daily settlement price on 2026-09-25 is 4300.00 USD/oz or higher, per exchange settlement data.", "deadline": "2026-09-25", "citations": [ 56, 96 ], "failure_condition": "The 2026-09-25 COMEX gold front-month settlement price closes below 4300.00 USD/oz.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:49Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-57", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:50.504409+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d13e4fc4c489f86e3c689b3591634a5a38f8b150147fc59cb35d215c7b5887ca" }, { "statement": "The FOMC holds its federal funds target range unchanged at its September 15-16, 2026 meeting. Reference: 3.50-3.75 percent target range in effect on the packet date.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 21, "resolution": "The FOMC post-meeting statement released 2026-09-16 states the target range is unchanged from 3.50-3.75 percent.", "deadline": "2026-09-16", "citations": [ 66 ], "failure_condition": "The FOMC statement released 2026-09-16 announces any change to the 3.50-3.75 percent target range.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:49Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-58", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:50.504416+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d424a434b35b662437eceb9bbc9955d6e124bef62304b65747cbd2b0cbf71c94" }, { "statement": "Leon Black either appears for a rescheduled House Oversight Committee deposition or is formally held in contempt of Congress in connection with the Epstein-probe subpoena, between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-17.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "House Oversight Committee records or a wire-service report confirm either a completed Leon Black deposition or a committee contempt vote or referral occurring between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-17, checked by 2026-10-19.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 57, 106, 114 ], "failure_condition": "Neither a completed Leon Black deposition nor a formal contempt vote or referral occurs in the 2026-09-05 to 2026-10-17 window as of 2026-10-19.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:49Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-59", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:50.504423+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c4a767ae8a4812f8331b5aeb69bba2f24964277104d8ba146af49cd4d1d138da" }, { "statement": "The Bank of Japan raises its short-term policy interest rate at the Monetary Policy Meeting concluding 2026-09-18, to a level above the rate in effect on 2026-09-03.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 21, "resolution": "The Statement on Monetary Policy published on boj.or.jp for the MPM concluding 2026-09-18 sets the uncollateralized overnight call rate guideline above the level in effect on 2026-09-03.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 63 ], "failure_condition": "The BoJ statement for the meeting concluding 2026-09-18 leaves the policy rate unchanged or lowers it.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:50Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-60", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:51.522142+00:00", "seal_sha256": "71a79ce23906cd3537dc46ea36651506540b49b182c0eb990c1f5672cf9fdeb9" }, { "statement": "Brent crude trades above 110.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-02. Reference: 96.70 on the packet date.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 21, "resolution": "The FRED series DCOILBRENTEU (EIA Brent Europe spot) reports a daily value strictly above 110.00 for at least one observation dated 2026-09-04 through 2026-10-02 inclusive. Reference: 96.70 on the packet date.", "deadline": "2026-10-09", "citations": [ 71, 84, 113 ], "failure_condition": "No DCOILBRENTEU observation dated 2026-09-04 through 2026-10-02 exceeds 110.00.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:50Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-61", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:51.522163+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9dd87bdaebca066e27666cfd8a8fc0ae31f4d0103ed169965e699983ec72a4d2" }, { "statement": "CISA adds at least one CVE whose KEV vendorProject or product field names Elementor to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The CISA KEV JSON feed (cisa.gov known-exploited-vulnerabilities.json) contains an entry whose vendorProject or product field includes Elementor and whose dateAdded is from 2026-09-03 through 2026-09-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 14 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry with dateAdded between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-30 names Elementor in its vendorProject or product field.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:50Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-62", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:51.522174+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d6f27053eeb490ee2e7556e52965f1fee096b1ca1bdecd81d104b13d287c50cb" }, { "statement": "The US House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform votes to approve a report or resolution recommending that Leon Black be held in contempt of Congress between 2026-09-03 and 2026-12-18.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "The committee website (oversight.house.gov) or Congress.gov records a committee vote approving a contempt of Congress report or resolution naming Leon Black, held on a date from 2026-09-03 through 2026-12-18 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-12-22", "citations": [ 57, 114, 106 ], "failure_condition": "No House Oversight Committee vote approving a contempt report or resolution against Leon Black occurs between 2026-09-03 and 2026-12-18, whether because none is scheduled, it is postponed, or he complies.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:50Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-63", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:51.522183+00:00", "seal_sha256": "502d784c0178130be7f03d92c096d04fa37a3ef93541d90393cfe9684ee7069f" }, { "statement": "The US Department of Defense announces the death of at least one US service member from hostile action in the CENTCOM area of responsibility, with a date of death between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-01.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "A casualty release on defense.gov identifies at least one US service member whose death is attributed to hostile action or enemy attack in the CENTCOM area of responsibility, with date of death 2026-09-04 through 2026-10-01 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 83, 84, 113, 109 ], "failure_condition": "No DoD casualty release attributes any US service member death in the CENTCOM area of responsibility to hostile action with a date of death between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-01.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:50Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-64", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:51.522192+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6036455ad65bcea0695e106ee83bfa91518152dbef6f56ddb304b8b94738c41c" }, { "statement": "The USGS catalog records an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater with epicenter within 300 km of the 2026-09-03 M6.3 event 84 km SSW of Nikolski, Alaska (us7000tdvt), with origin time between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-03.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 36, "resolution": "The USGS earthquake catalog (earthquake.usgs.gov) lists an event with magnitude 6.0 or greater, epicenter within 300 km of event us7000tdvt, and origin time from 2026-09-04 00:00 UTC through 2026-10-03 23:59 UTC.", "deadline": "2026-10-07", "citations": [ 31, 44 ], "failure_condition": "No USGS catalog event of magnitude 6.0 or greater with epicenter within 300 km of us7000tdvt has an origin time between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-03.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3617, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:50Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-65", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:51.522201+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3b8f736eb9bb90bd27ec8793e2ef0aa31cb1f16f37214dd9cdc92e0f5bb8c827" }, { "statement": "The NOAA CPC weekly Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly reaches at least +2.0 degrees C for at least one week dated between 2026-09-07 and 2026-12-28.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 36, "resolution": "The NOAA CPC weekly SST anomaly table (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for) shows a Nino 3.4 anomaly of 2.0 or higher for any week whose listed date falls from 2026-09-07 through 2026-12-28 inclusive.", "deadline": "2027-01-06", "citations": [ 78, 100, 107 ], "failure_condition": "Every weekly Nino 3.4 anomaly value listed for weeks dated 2026-09-07 through 2026-12-28 is below 2.0.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3617, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:50Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-66", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:51.522209+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7fc7b58eb2537873c1974008125877771da4f050926c6a141b67ae5fe6d98871" }, { "statement": "UK Home Office figures record 900 or more people arriving in the UK by small boat on at least one single day between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 36, "resolution": "The Home Office small boat arrivals dataset on gov.uk (migrants detected crossing the English Channel in small boats) shows a daily arrivals figure of 900 or more for at least one date from 2026-09-04 through 2026-10-31 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 10 ], "failure_condition": "No single day between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-31 has a Home Office recorded small boat arrivals figure of 900 or more.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3574, "n": 249, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:50Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-67", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:51.522216+00:00", "seal_sha256": "72e38619302e662dc2363cb6b2b4fba3167f457fbdf75b54ed9595b5aa7f2ba3" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-02, Ukrainian forces strike at least one target inside internationally recognized Russian territory 200 km or more from the Russia-Ukraine border, acknowledged by both a Russian official source and a Ukrainian official or military-intelligence source.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "Resolves TRUE if a strike meeting the statement, occurring in the window, is acknowledged by at least one Russian official source (MoD or regional governor) and one Ukrainian official source; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 89 ], "failure_condition": "No strike 200 km or deeper inside Russia occurring within the window is acknowledged by both a Russian official source and a Ukrainian official source by the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:51Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-68", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:52.536447+00:00", "seal_sha256": "535860299e8519d38546bd2db6cf20b058d49cd33b83b1ec8288c4c4c2e9e5f9" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-04, the government or state news agency of Qatar (QNA) or Bahrain (BNA) confirms an Iranian missile or drone striking, or being intercepted over, its national territory.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "Resolves TRUE on official Qatari or Bahraini government or state-agency confirmation of an Iranian projectile striking or intercepted over its territory within the window, corroborated by at least one international wire service; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-07", "citations": [ 83, 84, 113 ], "failure_condition": "Neither Qatar nor Bahrain officially confirms any Iranian strike on or interception over its territory occurring within the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:51Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-69", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:52.536470+00:00", "seal_sha256": "dc895d0b1e30dab570b59e626523fedc1b7314a9c98a6b2576ed1f2f61f0f9bc" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-31, a decree published on the official website of the President of Ukraine removes the serving head of the SBU or the serving head of the GUR from that post.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "Resolves TRUE if a presidential decree dated within the window and published at president.gov.ua removes the incumbent SBU chief or GUR chief; reassignment to another post counts as removal; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 86, 115 ], "failure_condition": "No presidential decree dated within the window removes the incumbent head of the SBU or the GUR.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:51Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-70", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:52.536482+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1112640d4c923db5d31da29de2d80da6f0fca96a5f5cf89759a3b611f728fb22" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent crude front-month futures record a daily settlement at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-30. Reference: Brent 96.70 at packet seal on 2026-09-03.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 21, "resolution": "Resolves TRUE if any official ICE Brent front-month daily settlement between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-30 is at or above 100.00 USD; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 71, 84 ], "failure_condition": "Every ICE Brent front-month daily settlement in the window is below 100.00 USD.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:51Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-71", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:52.536491+00:00", "seal_sha256": "febe0e7744145c27494e9cb553ad3f399eaed275c6ccc8a8ccfda74259a2a9ac" }, { "statement": "The Federal Open Market Committee leaves the federal funds target range unchanged at its scheduled September 2026 meeting, per the FOMC statement posted at federalreserve.gov.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 21, "resolution": "Resolves TRUE if the September 2026 FOMC statement maintains the pre-meeting federal funds target range with no change; any increase or cut resolves FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-21", "citations": [ 66, 74 ], "failure_condition": "The September 2026 FOMC statement announces a change to the federal funds target range.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:51Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-72", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:52.536500+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e6ad6bd590864b4eb1b22bc9a8a3a771084f18486aa4fce3ca64ed31befcdc88" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry whose vendor, product, or vulnerability name field contains Elementor, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-02 inclusive.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "Resolves TRUE if the public CISA KEV JSON feed contains an entry naming Elementor with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-02 inclusive; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 14, 25 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry naming Elementor carries a dateAdded value within the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:51Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-73", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:52.536507+00:00", "seal_sha256": "65f729ec6b8628c6f090f81061785bf746d72c9bcc254c000a5db778cbef88a7" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry whose vendor or product field names CrowdStrike, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-04 and 2026-11-30 inclusive.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "Resolves TRUE if the public CISA KEV JSON feed contains an entry with vendor or product naming CrowdStrike and a dateAdded value between 2026-09-04 and 2026-11-30 inclusive; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-12-03", "citations": [ 24 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry naming CrowdStrike as vendor or product carries a dateAdded value within the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:51Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-74", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:52.536523+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1e1253d4a5fecbcd23c4af199b468904086f3cb84d69014ca318daf60644a42d" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-04 and 2026-12-04, the USGS earthquake catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater with an epicenter within 300 km of USGS event us7000tdvt, the 2026-09-03 M6.3 near Nikolski, Alaska.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 36, "resolution": "Resolves TRUE if a USGS ComCat query returns any event of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 300 km of the us7000tdvt epicenter with origin time inside the window; catalog values as of the deadline govern.", "deadline": "2026-12-08", "citations": [ 31, 44 ], "failure_condition": "No event of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 300 km of the us7000tdvt epicenter, per catalog values at the deadline, has an origin time inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3617, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:51Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-75", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:52.536531+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5d421944bb740111425fe47b7e1efe472100af877a13bd4c503f31494fd44309" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-04, at least one additional munition impact on the sovereign territory of Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or the United Arab Emirates is publicly attributed to Iran or Iran-aligned forces by the host government.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "MET if two of Reuters, AP, AFP report a munition impact on one of those five states dated inside the window, and that host government publicly attributes the impact to Iran or Iran-aligned forces.", "deadline": "2026-10-08", "citations": [ 83, 84, 113 ], "failure_condition": "No munition impact inside the five named states during the window carries a host-government attribution to Iran or Iran-aligned forces.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:52Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-76", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:53.554052+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3b27ce8c1788095d3a0cf1561feb590e904529c610d5fdab247b510c5c2167be" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-04 and 2026-12-04, commercial transit of the Strait of Hormuz halts for at least 72 consecutive hours.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "MET if Reuters and either Bloomberg or Lloyds List report a continuous period of at least 72 hours inside the window in which no laden commercial tanker transited the Strait of Hormuz.", "deadline": "2026-12-09", "citations": [ 71, 84 ], "failure_condition": "Commercial tanker traffic through the Strait continues through the window with no continuous stoppage reaching 72 hours.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:52Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-77", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:53.554079+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e0e6e2d3e528f649fde253d4fcda052d3a3c8c62ade2a930be8e084fb59d33fb" }, { "statement": "The FOMC statement issued on 2026-09-16 leaves the federal funds target range unchanged from the range in effect on the packet date. Reference: target range 3.50 to 3.75 percent on 2026-09-03.", "domain": "economics_markets", "probability": 21, "resolution": "MET if the FOMC statement published on federalreserve.gov on 2026-09-16 maintains the federal funds target range at the level in effect on 2026-09-03.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 66, 71, 74 ], "failure_condition": "The 2026-09-16 FOMC statement sets a target range different from the one in effect on the packet date.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:52Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-78", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:53.554091+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5e9010b818893a755513e1dfaeb5ee892d470fdef66b85a253a722294f45c808" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent front-month futures settle at or below 88.00 dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-11-06. Reference: 96.70 on the packet date.", "domain": "economics_markets", "probability": 21, "resolution": "MET if the ICE published settlement price for the Brent front-month contract is 88.00 dollars or lower on any trading day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-11-06 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-10", "citations": [ 71, 84 ], "failure_condition": "Every ICE Brent front-month settlement inside the window prints above 88.00 dollars per barrel.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:52Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-79", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:53.554102+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ff9d0888b2520c92ea5e6ec07261769c80dc3e78025cd3dd42ae9d8c2aa86945" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog carries an entry naming CrowdStrike as the vendor with a date-added value between 2026-09-04 and 2027-01-29.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "MET if the CISA KEV catalog JSON contains a record whose vendorProject field is CrowdStrike and whose dateAdded value falls between 2026-09-04 and 2027-01-29 inclusive.", "deadline": "2027-02-02", "citations": [ 24 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV catalog holds no CrowdStrike record with a date-added value inside that range.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:52Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-80", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:53.554111+00:00", "seal_sha256": "06d87261eca7ddd255d19b6a5c3e25be7fc8705f5047991122449d4f6c408056" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog gains at least 50 new entries with date-added values between 2026-09-08 and 2026-11-02 inclusive.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "MET if a count of CISA KEV catalog records whose dateAdded value falls between 2026-09-08 and 2026-11-02 inclusive reaches 50 or more.", "deadline": "2026-11-06", "citations": [ 25 ], "failure_condition": "Fewer than 50 KEV records carry a date-added value inside that range.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:52Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-81", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:53.554120+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b1cd60fa893576f175d18b14ffa8bf3570a51b6c7fe998cd8ce1822201233912" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-04 and 2026-11-04, Ukraine issues a notice of suspicion against at least one serving SBU or HUR officer over the Kyiv inter-agency shootout.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 36, "resolution": "MET if the Prosecutor General office, the SBU, or the State Bureau of Investigation publicly announces a notice of suspicion naming a serving SBU or HUR officer in connection with the Kyiv shootout.", "deadline": "2026-11-09", "citations": [ 86, 115 ], "failure_condition": "No Ukrainian prosecuting body announces a notice of suspicion against a serving SBU or HUR officer over that incident inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3574, "n": 249, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:52Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-82", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:53.554130+00:00", "seal_sha256": "77dc192f557b4debd331e3fad94a9d774705a233dd45ba7eb7812e27f9cb202a" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-11, the House Committee on Oversight approves a resolution recommending that Leon Black be held in contempt of Congress.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "MET if a markup record or roll call published on oversight.house.gov shows committee approval of a contempt resolution naming Leon Black, dated between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-11.", "deadline": "2026-12-16", "citations": [ 57, 106, 114 ], "failure_condition": "The committee record shows no approved contempt resolution naming Leon Black inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:52Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-83", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:53.554140+00:00", "seal_sha256": "becdc104d77bd51b613f1700608d1bf6c664df6567eb459e6683ecfe1061e06e" }, { "statement": "The NOAA CPC Oceanic Nino Index value for the September-October-November 2026 season is at or above plus 2.0 degrees Celsius. Reference: UN and BoM record El Nino forecasts on the packet date.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 36, "resolution": "MET if the CPC Oceanic Nino Index table on the CPC site lists a SON 2026 value of 2.0 or greater when read on the deadline.", "deadline": "2026-12-18", "citations": [ 78, 100, 107 ], "failure_condition": "The CPC ONI table lists a SON 2026 value below plus 2.0, or lists no value for that season.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3617, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-03T20:10:52Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-03_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260903-84", "date_issued": "2026-09-03", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-03_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-03T20:10:53.554149+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ee9c7c20445915a96fab5b1c30aa51c8db30023a83bfc1c709018a383cce4d7c" }, { "statement": "A drone strike on Kyiv's security services headquarters occurs between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, resulting in at least one confirmed casualty.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, and at least one report from a hostile side (RU, UA, AXIS) confirms a drone strike on Kyiv's security services HQ with at least one confirmed casualty in corroborating reports.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 99 ], "failure_condition": "No report from a hostile side (RU, UA, AXIS) confirms a drone strike on Kyiv's security services HQ with at least one confirmed casualty between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.", "id": "KKR-20260904-01", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T15:20:02.893215+00:00", "seal_sha256": "852e3eaba305583969bf5d5fb5f1518f17d97e28d717050fbde2a039f42908e6" }, { "statement": "A cyberattack exploiting the Chrome V8 zero-day vulnerability is confirmed by at least two independent sources between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, and at least two independent sources (e.g., BleepingComputer, The Hacker News) confirm exploitation of the Chrome V8 zero-day vulnerability during that window.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 16, 19 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog does not carry a date-added value between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, or fewer than two independent sources confirm exploitation of the Chrome V8 zero-day vulnerability during that window.", "id": "KKR-20260904-02", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T15:20:02.893239+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b910abd04eddd7b636cfdc7b2772ab8cb2e8188c3a1fd528428c9926625eed2a" }, { "statement": "A major earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or higher occurs in the United States between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, with at least one fatality reported.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 20, "resolution": "The USGS Significant Quakes catalog carries a magnitude 6.0 or higher event with a depth of 70km or less, and at least one fatality is reported in corroborating sources (e.g., BBC World, Al Jazeera) between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 36, 37, 48 ], "failure_condition": "No magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake with a depth of 70km or less is recorded in the USGS Significant Quakes catalog between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, or no fatality is reported in corroborating sources.", "id": "KKR-20260904-03", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T15:20:02.893251+00:00", "seal_sha256": "36e575d5fde4c5915d4c22d629b0a3037e55ffddabd4b3e9946fdc631115517c" }, { "statement": "The S&P 500 index closes below 7,600 on at least one trading day between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 35, "resolution": "The S&P 500 index closes below 7,600 on at least one trading day between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, as recorded in the Market Snapshot data.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 50, 58 ], "failure_condition": "The S&P 500 index closes at or above 7,600 on all trading days between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.", "id": "KKR-20260904-04", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T15:20:02.893260+00:00", "seal_sha256": "28eb88bca5706bc1d4af71fc5651ec8c1256ce050d7e34786152aea0b193a412" }, { "statement": "A new vulnerability in Microsoft Teams is exploited in a coordinated attack on at least 100 organizations between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 22, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, and at least 100 organizations are confirmed to have been compromised via the Microsoft Teams vulnerability in corroborating reports.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 12 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog does not carry a date-added value between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, or fewer than 100 organizations are confirmed compromised via the Microsoft Teams vulnerability.", "id": "KKR-20260904-05", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T15:20:02.893268+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ab3e21df4944f1913b50edc6a06c233078087053c7e9bbdc38e1d03c27e7bee9" }, { "statement": "A political scandal involving a U.S. presidential candidate leads to a formal indictment by a federal grand jury between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.", "domain": "political", "probability": 18, "resolution": "A federal grand jury issues a formal indictment against a U.S. presidential candidate, confirmed by at least two independent sources (e.g., Guardian World, NPR News) between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 102, 117 ], "failure_condition": "No federal grand jury issues a formal indictment against a U.S. presidential candidate, confirmed by at least two independent sources, between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.", "id": "KKR-20260904-06", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T15:20:02.893276+00:00", "seal_sha256": "85aaa1da238630c0c4f5ed83a84ffc9bb48f94a9587531fa8f75c507935c7a29" }, { "statement": "Iran announces a new military offensive in the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, confirmed by at least two hostile sides (AXIS, WEST).", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 15, "resolution": "At least two hostile sides (AXIS, WEST) confirm Iran announces a new military offensive in the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, as reported in corroborating sources.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 87, 91 ], "failure_condition": "No report from at least two hostile sides (AXIS, WEST) confirms Iran announces a new military offensive in the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.", "id": "KKR-20260904-07", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T15:20:02.893284+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c971601114ceb2dde03448c92c08dbc18a6eb5224554bcb7cc599592637757e3" }, { "statement": "The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds 5.0% on at least one trading day between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 32, "resolution": "The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds 5.0% on at least one trading day between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, as recorded in the Market Snapshot data.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 50, 58 ], "failure_condition": "The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains at or below 5.0% on all trading days between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.", "id": "KKR-20260904-08", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T15:20:02.893292+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2ba7a0a6f33c17080e833dd68c6a6ea4f30b616bf52734f93cf8f46b1ab8ce31" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-12, the US dollar strengthens to a 10-year high against the euro, with EUR/USD falling below 1.1450 at the close of the final trading day.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The EUR/USD exchange rate closes below 1.1450 on 2026-09-12.", "deadline": "2026-09-14", "citations": [ 50, 51 ], "failure_condition": "The EUR/USD exchange rate closes at or above 1.1450 on 2026-09-12.", "id": "KKR-20260904-09", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-04_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T15:22:36.922860+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5d581440bfe80bea366f2ed0787cd41a0e05f89f81b96a9bdc343c2f6b38e6a5", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [50] carry the claim's operative terms (high, year); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-13, a cyberattack exploiting the Chrome V8 zero-day vulnerability is confirmed by at least two independent sources, including CISA or BleepingComputer, with evidence of active exploitation in the wild.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-13, and at least two independent sources (e.g., BleepingComputer, The Hacker News) confirm active exploitation of the Chrome V8 zero-day vulnerability.", "deadline": "2026-09-16", "citations": [ 16, 19 ], "failure_condition": "No entry in the CISA KEV catalog between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-13 confirms active exploitation of the Chrome V8 zero-day vulnerability.", "id": "KKR-20260904-10", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-04_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T15:22:36.922880+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7814eddd23f01aefe623bbe9c563c15d531c9df10fb5b4784da0775b85f2b62c" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-09 and 2026-09-15, Iran launches a coordinated missile and drone attack on Israeli military installations in the Golan Heights, confirmed by at least two hostile sides (IL, PS) with casualty reports.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "At least two hostile sides (IL, PS) report a coordinated missile and drone attack on Israeli military installations in the Golan Heights between 2026-09-09 and 2026-09-15, with confirmed casualties.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 87, 93 ], "failure_condition": "No coordinated missile and drone attack on Israeli military installations in the Golan Heights is confirmed by two hostile sides with reported casualties.", "id": "KKR-20260904-11", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-04_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T15:22:36.922892+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b6c6d6f48af89e156894d53259706af64e2e0b710f153f27657d61a2c07c2faf" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-13 and 2026-09-19, a cyberattack targeting the Ukrainian power grid is confirmed by at least two hostile sides (RU, UA), with sustained outages reported in Kyiv.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 32, "resolution": "At least two hostile sides (RU, UA) report a cyberattack on the Ukrainian power grid between 2026-09-13 and 2026-09-19, with sustained outages confirmed in Kyiv.", "deadline": "2026-09-21", "citations": [ 99 ], "failure_condition": "No cyberattack on the Ukrainian power grid is confirmed by two hostile sides with sustained outages in Kyiv.", "id": "KKR-20260904-12", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-04_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T15:22:36.922902+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7dc405e533940a31e6b66e416c210290c3ebba3b47e478f9bb63b36700fb2612" }, { "statement": "The UN General Assembly will adopt the Togo-sponsored resolution replacing the Mercator projection with the Equal Earth projection at its scheduled vote on 2026-09-04.", "domain": "political", "probability": 85, "resolution": "TRUE if the UN's official record shows the map resolution adopted, by vote or consensus, on September 4, 2026; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-11", "citations": [ 100 ], "failure_condition": "The resolution is rejected, withdrawn, or not brought to a vote on September 4, 2026.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-13", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:14.234460+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ed0f4c35fcabe1d863cdf5aa2e6839f83ca227053d0bfea03905efe678e5e75b", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [100] carry the claim's operative terms (adopt, adopted, show, vote); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "The AfD will win an outright majority, at least 42 of the 83 seats, in the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election held 2026-09-06, exceeding its pre-election polling average of roughly 39 projected seats.", "domain": "political", "probability": 27, "resolution": "TRUE if Sachsen-Anhalt's official results from the September 6, 2026 election allocate 42 or more of 83 seats to AfD; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-11", "citations": [ 115, 122 ], "failure_condition": "AfD's certified seat count is 41 or fewer.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-14", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:14.234481+00:00", "seal_sha256": "53fb02c12a94ee8ef12afe27fc8c754e5787e7f1e79150ab08910c645a4456f8", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [115] carry the claim's operative terms (election, saxony-anhalt); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "US envoys representing the Trump administration will hold in-person meetings with senior government officials in both Moscow and Kyiv between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-16 as part of the announced mediation relaunch.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 55, "resolution": "TRUE if two or more of Reuters, AP, BBC, or Al Jazeera report the same US envoy team meeting senior officials in both Moscow and Kyiv between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-16; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 83, 102 ], "failure_condition": "No single US envoy team completes in-person meetings in both Moscow and Kyiv within that window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-15", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:14.234493+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8a29e3c9d04fba5db897740dbca20a213c75a52ce6443ed4a609f9c4f959b551" }, { "statement": "The FOMC will cut its federal funds target range below the current 3.50-3.75 percent range, held through a 9-3 vote at the July 29, 2026 meeting, at its next meeting on September 16, 2026.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 12, "resolution": "TRUE if the Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026 statement sets the target range below 3.50-3.75 percent; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 54, 58 ], "failure_condition": "The September 16, 2026 FOMC statement holds the range at 3.50-3.75 percent or raises it.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-16", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:14.234502+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8da7e9959897dc063842d84c2a44acd16aea6daf8cb4f03334700c55b98b48bb" }, { "statement": "Treasury/OFAC will publish at least one additional Iran-related sanctions designation under Operation Economic Outcast between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-19, continuing the near-weekly cadence announced by Secretary Bessent.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 85, "resolution": "TRUE if OFAC's Recent Actions page lists a new Iran-related designation dated between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-19; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 72 ], "failure_condition": "No new Iran-related OFAC designation is dated within that window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-17", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:14.234510+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4f6cdc20a8f170bc953a4aeef7d52ba415fb281a2e17b032b80155e2e71ef80a" }, { "statement": "GDACS will upgrade at least one of its four Green forest-fire alerts logged 2026-09-04 (Mozambique event 1031563, DR Congo event 1031500, Zambia event 1031562, Ethiopia event 1031529) to Orange or Red between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-19.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 14, "resolution": "TRUE if the GDACS page for any of the four listed events shows Orange or Red level between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-19; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 28, 30, 31, 34 ], "failure_condition": "All four listed GDACS events stay at Green, or expire without upgrade, through 2026-09-19.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-18", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:14.234518+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3e8362a2f289e1bb082eae45fe187299e7e95720f716e90416bf95e3e7f2e397" }, { "statement": "The actively exploited Chrome V8 vulnerability CVE-2026-85046, patched by Google on 2026-09-03, will be added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-25.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 78, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog lists CVE-2026-85046 with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-25; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 16, 19 ], "failure_condition": "CVE-2026-85046 is absent from the CISA KEV catalog, or carries a dateAdded outside that window, as of the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-19", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:14.234526+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c9ac125a4ec19775d204320a3c1900253c81086230698cedec03f3bfb66a8efc" }, { "statement": "Sara Duterte will be held in physical government custody for more than 24 continuous hours under the Quezon City Regional Trial Court arrest warrant, at any point between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-25.", "domain": "political", "probability": 15, "resolution": "TRUE if two or more of AP, Reuters, or Al Jazeera report Duterte held in custody beyond 24 continuous hours between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-25; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 106, 107 ], "failure_condition": "Duterte posts bail and is released within 24 hours, or is never taken into physical custody, within that window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-20", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:14.234533+00:00", "seal_sha256": "20690d7b2fdfe6c18c89607decb0ba597782006d9ef34cf61b3ac2cee466df7f" }, { "statement": "Houthi forces will be reported to have gained physical control of coastal territory directly on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, beyond their existing inland and Hodeida-area positions, with the advance occurring between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-05.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 20, "resolution": "TRUE if two or more of Reuters, AP, AFP, or Al Jazeera report Houthi control of strait-front territory, not just Hodeida or inland areas, between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-05; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-07", "citations": [ 80 ], "failure_condition": "Houthi forces remain confined to Hodeida and inland positions, without confirmed strait-front territory, through 2026-10-05.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-21", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:14.234540+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d0812cdf21374d1f0e2ad066d35b32b07a3824e60adb860ad9e30922a6221c5f" }, { "statement": "CISA adds CVE-2026-85046, the Chrome V8 type confusion zero-day patched by Google on 2026-09-03, to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded between 2026-09-04 and 2026-09-25.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 90, "resolution": "The CISA KEV JSON feed at the deadline contains an entry with cveID CVE-2026-85046 and a dateAdded value from 2026-09-04 through 2026-09-25 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 16, 19 ], "failure_condition": "At the deadline the KEV feed has no entry for CVE-2026-85046, or its dateAdded falls outside 2026-09-04 through 2026-09-25.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-22", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:15.494880+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c901de729b7bca71fe66b354d04dce8f6ef1c272ddb00f2bda65f9a77f4dd732" }, { "statement": "CISA adds CVE-2026-20212, the Cisco Nexus 9000 Silicon One unauthenticated root RCE disclosed 2026-09-02 with no known exploitation at seal, to the KEV catalog with a dateAdded between 2026-09-04 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 18, "resolution": "The CISA KEV JSON feed at the deadline contains an entry with cveID CVE-2026-20212 and a dateAdded value from 2026-09-04 through 2026-11-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 25 ], "failure_condition": "At the deadline the KEV feed has no entry for CVE-2026-20212, or its dateAdded falls outside 2026-09-04 through 2026-11-30.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-23", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:15.494901+00:00", "seal_sha256": "46eee9e1eed5fa278655384d8d290917e25abbde99a854afebc71646b7bef69c" }, { "statement": "In the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election held 2026-09-06, the AfD wins an absolute majority of all seats (strictly more than half, counting overhang and leveling seats) in the official preliminary result.", "domain": "political", "probability": 10, "resolution": "The Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt official preliminary result (vorlaeufiges amtliches Endergebnis) for 2026-09-06 shows AfD seats strictly greater than half of all Landtag seats allocated.", "deadline": "2026-09-14", "citations": [ 115, 122 ], "failure_condition": "The official preliminary result allocates the AfD half or fewer of the total Landtag seats.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-24", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:15.494913+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e6a7caa5e10279e6064f7601e17d64e6808a8308f987740c492a0c79a46457f9", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [115] carry the claim's operative terms (election, saxony-anhalt); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "At its scheduled 2026-09-15 to 2026-09-16 meeting the FOMC raises the federal funds target range above the range held at seal (reference: 3.50 to 3.75 percent on the packet date).", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 52, "resolution": "The FOMC statement dated 2026-09-16 on federalreserve.gov, or FRED series DFEDTARL observed for 2026-09-17, shows a target range lower bound above 3.50 percent.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 50, 54, 58 ], "failure_condition": "The 2026-09-16 FOMC statement leaves the target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent or sets a lower range.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-25", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:15.494922+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8c034da35722ffdc62c84e131bf91bd2f0441fe848d1237928c837b581b91077" }, { "statement": "CME NYMEX WTI crude (CL) front-month futures settle at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09 (reference: 90.35 on the packet date).", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 40, "resolution": "CME Group published daily settlement for the front-month CL contract is at or above 100.00 on at least one trading day from 2026-09-08 through 2026-10-09 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 72, 87, 92 ], "failure_condition": "Every front-month CL daily settlement from 2026-09-08 through 2026-10-09 is below 100.00.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-26", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:15.494931+00:00", "seal_sha256": "48571b856cfdb748bbe2e08a02fdbd6216a3bff3fe4c5ffd1f2bdb32ca14eaa1" }, { "statement": "US envoys Steve Witkoff and/or Jared Kushner are physically present in Kyiv and meet President Zelensky in person between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-13.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 70, "resolution": "The Office of the President of Ukraine (president.gov.ua) publishes a readout or photographs of the Kyiv meeting, and at least one of Reuters, AP or AFP independently reports the envoys in Kyiv within the window.", "deadline": "2026-09-16", "citations": [ 83, 99, 102 ], "failure_condition": "Neither Witkoff nor Kushner meets Zelensky in person in Kyiv on any day from 2026-09-05 through 2026-09-13.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-27", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:15.494938+00:00", "seal_sha256": "766944e431273cdf08d4271e447ef9c5c1c62d17bd769d8e6098841e3c6081f0" }, { "statement": "Houthi forces take control of the Yemeni port city of Mokha (al-Mukha), Taiz governorate, between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-02.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 15, "resolution": "Either the internationally recognized Yemeni government acknowledges loss of Mokha, or at least two of Reuters, AP and AFP report Houthi forces control the city center and port, for an event dated within the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 80 ], "failure_condition": "Government-aligned forces retain control of Mokha city and port on every day from 2026-09-04 through 2026-10-02.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-28", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:15.494946+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5d6483ecc790ed4b01654ef2d3df587d9415475dfb915c37bba2ae4b3fbd78da" }, { "statement": "The Philippine Court of Appeals or Supreme Court issues a temporary restraining order, status quo ante order, or injunction halting the Quezon City RTC Branch 98 grave threats proceedings against Vice President Sara Duterte between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 22, "resolution": "An order of the Court of Appeals or Supreme Court dated within the window suspends or enjoins the Branch 98 grave threats proceedings against Duterte, confirmed by the issuing court or by two of Rappler, Inquirer, Philstar, Reuters.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 106, 107 ], "failure_condition": "No Court of Appeals or Supreme Court order suspending or enjoining the Branch 98 grave threats proceedings against Duterte is issued from 2026-09-04 through 2026-10-30.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-29", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:15.494953+00:00", "seal_sha256": "70d9dad962402019feab9d0bfc137730f58f03e0ec4a2bcd5585074a13c5d539" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-11 and 2026-09-25 the NSW Supreme Court sentences Daniel Billings for the murder of Molly Ticehurst to life imprisonment or to a non-parole period of 30 years or more.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 28, "resolution": "The sentencing judgment (NSW Caselaw, R v Billings) or reporting by ABC and AAP shows a sentence handed down within the window that is life imprisonment or carries a non-parole period of at least 30 years.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 10 ], "failure_condition": "The sentence handed down carries a non-parole period under 30 years and is not life imprisonment, or no sentence is delivered from 2026-09-11 through 2026-09-25.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-30", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:15.494961+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b930d847658597ce34befa6341e67b5c0b08efad49a38032acedc91aabefa145" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one Google Chrome or Chromium V8 entry with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-04 and 2026-09-18.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 85, "resolution": "Fetch the CISA KEV JSON at the deadline; TRUE if any entry lists vendorProject Google, a product containing Chrome or Chromium V8, and dateAdded between 2026-09-04 and 2026-09-18.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 16, 19 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV JSON fetched at the deadline contains no Google Chrome or Chromium V8 entry with dateAdded between 2026-09-04 and 2026-09-18.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-31", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:16.407074+00:00", "seal_sha256": "43a52dfca776beecc8ce6bb5e7efe8de9afc2e7aed393d08c2b3c0020e411be1" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog adds at least one entry with vendorProject CrowdStrike and a dateAdded value between 2026-09-04 and 2026-09-25, following the reported FalconFlank SYSTEM privilege zero-day.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "Fetch the CISA KEV JSON at the deadline; TRUE if any entry lists vendorProject CrowdStrike with dateAdded between 2026-09-04 and 2026-09-25; the entry need not be named FalconFlank.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 14 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV JSON fetched at the deadline contains no entry with vendorProject CrowdStrike and dateAdded between 2026-09-04 and 2026-09-25.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-32", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:16.407094+00:00", "seal_sha256": "70d788d972cb0f643aee740f1a2ef1a97de0b42996b2d620f20222951e5a4e7d" }, { "statement": "The 10-year US Treasury constant maturity yield prints at or above 5.00 percent on at least one business day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 4.78 percent on the packet date.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 40, "resolution": "TRUE if FRED series DGS10 records a value of 5.00 or higher for any date between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 4.78 at seal.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 50, 71, 49 ], "failure_condition": "All DGS10 values for dates between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30 remain below 5.00 percent.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-33", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:16.407107+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2436f8c81f429affc615af4618f941d011a55d7986b5238fca01164569751e0a" }, { "statement": "The governments of Russia and Ukraine both announce a ceasefire or a mutual halt of long-range strikes with an effective date between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-16.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 12, "resolution": "TRUE if Reuters and AP each carry statements from both the Kremlin and the Ukrainian presidential office confirming the same ceasefire or strike-halt agreement effective within the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-20", "citations": [ 83, 102 ], "failure_condition": "No agreement confirmed by both governments and carried by both wire services has an effective date between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-16.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-34", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:16.407116+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6c53970e105bc9b3ee030293f138dc8d31b652487655ebaaa2a2ae90b8cb5285" }, { "statement": "The USGS ComCat catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or greater within 150 km of the 2026-09-04 M6.3 epicenter near Nikolski, Alaska, with origin time between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-02.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 60, "resolution": "TRUE if a ComCat query centered on the M6.3 event coordinates, radius 150 km, minimum magnitude 5.0, returns at least one event with origin time inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 37 ], "failure_condition": "The specified ComCat query returns zero events of magnitude 5.0 or greater with origin time between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-02.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-35", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:16.407123+00:00", "seal_sha256": "81abeca95e6cb1a3d9eb67d0912664849e4f70320c8fb81664b8260191cf5846" }, { "statement": "Argentina publishes in the Boletin Oficial a decree or resolution imposing sanctions or restrictive economic measures aimed at the Falkland Islands, companies operating there, or UK entities over the islands, dated between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-16.", "domain": "political", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if the Boletin Oficial de la Republica Argentina carries such an instrument with publication date inside the window; verbal threats without a published instrument do not count.", "deadline": "2026-10-20", "citations": [ 121, 116 ], "failure_condition": "No qualifying decree or resolution appears in the Boletin Oficial with a publication date between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-16.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-36", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:16.407131+00:00", "seal_sha256": "eb99f82c0bcef91ea97174c413d309f12b9b0471ed17dccdd0f047b0f58f764f" }, { "statement": "The FOMC raises the federal funds target range at its scheduled 2026-09-16 decision. Reference: target range 3.50 to 3.75 percent on the packet date 2026-09-04.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 78, "resolution": "TRUE if the FOMC policy statement on federalreserve.gov for the 2026-09-15 to 2026-09-16 meeting sets a target range with upper bound above 3.75 percent. Adjudicated 2026-09-18.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 50, 54, 58 ], "failure_condition": "The FOMC statement issued 2026-09-16 leaves the upper bound of the target range at or below 3.75 percent.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-37", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:17.312846+00:00", "seal_sha256": "94cb89c5adaf0b6320acdf7a50ffecf80529daff88779df11bceca3f4e0075e1" }, { "statement": "The South Korean government announces a naval or military deployment to Strait of Hormuz escort or security operations between 2026-09-07 and 2026-12-15.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 40, "resolution": "TRUE if the defence ministry or presidential office of South Korea announces such a deployment in that window and both Yonhap and Reuters report it. Adjudicated 2026-12-18.", "deadline": "2026-12-18", "citations": [ 87 ], "failure_condition": "No South Korean government announcement of a Hormuz naval or military deployment falls inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-38", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:17.312868+00:00", "seal_sha256": "981e2037ccb2e6c4963afaa3de8cb1f6ebdf1cf72f1155d395847f608f373719" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog gains an entry for a Google Chromium V8 vulnerability with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-09.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 72, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities JSON contains a Google Chromium V8 record whose dateAdded falls between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-09. Adjudicated 2026-10-13.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 16, 19 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV catalog holds no Chromium V8 record with a dateAdded between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-09.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-39", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:17.312879+00:00", "seal_sha256": "07b5b40200aa70677b17d9ffbaadb6661205b0ab68c4152582b4328ac0522b83" }, { "statement": "A CVE for the Cisco Nexus 9000 unauthenticated remote code execution flaw enters the CISA KEV catalog with dateAdded between 2026-09-04 and 2027-02-15.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 28, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON lists a Cisco NX-OS or Nexus 9000 record matching that flaw with dateAdded between 2026-09-04 and 2027-02-15. Adjudicated 2027-02-18.", "deadline": "2027-02-18", "citations": [ 25 ], "failure_condition": "No Cisco Nexus 9000 or NX-OS record matching this flaw carries a KEV dateAdded inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-40", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:17.312889+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e2d1ef5e9d67c0c7a93a7bad8916a62ed04f8fff6bbe89670c5c63522451da32" }, { "statement": "Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte is taken into physical custody or surrenders to a Philippine court between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 50, "resolution": "TRUE if Philippine authorities book or process her in custody, or she surrenders in court, in that window, per Reuters and the Philippine Daily Inquirer. Adjudicated 2026-11-03.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 106, 107 ], "failure_condition": "She is neither booked into custody nor surrendered to a court on or before 2026-10-30.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-41", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:17.312897+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7a5cbf49be6d3019c6ebc0728891aadee0e464428b7126ce2382775c25dc403b" }, { "statement": "USGS catalogs an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 300 km of event us7000tdvt with origin time between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 18, "resolution": "TRUE if a USGS ComCat query returns an M6.0 or greater event within 300 km of the us7000tdvt epicenter with origin time in that window. Adjudicated 2026-10-19.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 37 ], "failure_condition": "No USGS-catalogued M6.0 or greater event occurs within 300 km of us7000tdvt inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-42", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:17.312904+00:00", "seal_sha256": "09508c66977c9bd0fe5bb82a0b28f0c4159e69caa7610be4874b954c5641b700" }, { "statement": "The UN General Assembly will adopt the Togo-sponsored resolution replacing the Mercator projection with the Equal Earth projection at its scheduled vote on 2026-09-04.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if the UN's official record shows the map resolution adopted, by vote or consensus, on September 4, 2026; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-11", "citations": [ 100 ], "failure_condition": "The resolution is rejected, withdrawn, or not brought to a vote on September 4, 2026.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:17Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-43", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:18.327328+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9122070b0ddcb911a2dc2099f0eb48ef349ed3538622b5fcc0b2c78f27164838", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "The AfD will win an outright majority, at least 42 of the 83 seats, in the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election held 2026-09-06, exceeding its pre-election polling average of roughly 39 projected seats.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if Sachsen-Anhalt's official results from the September 6, 2026 election allocate 42 or more of 83 seats to AfD; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-11", "citations": [ 115, 122 ], "failure_condition": "AfD's certified seat count is 41 or fewer.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:17Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-44", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:18.327347+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d3b594e183a64f0737182f52ad44435b49c7db162bdd85bd4d1a35eb3165554c", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "US envoys representing the Trump administration will hold in-person meetings with senior government officials in both Moscow and Kyiv between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-16 as part of the announced mediation relaunch.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "TRUE if two or more of Reuters, AP, BBC, or Al Jazeera report the same US envoy team meeting senior officials in both Moscow and Kyiv between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-16; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 83, 102 ], "failure_condition": "No single US envoy team completes in-person meetings in both Moscow and Kyiv within that window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:17Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-45", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:18.327358+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c4bde477465852921975dc7d1eea503c5ed6eb7d554bfa3d54b3eab1c6e25ef8" }, { "statement": "The FOMC will cut its federal funds target range below the current 3.50-3.75 percent range, held through a 9-3 vote at the July 29, 2026 meeting, at its next meeting on September 16, 2026.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 21, "resolution": "TRUE if the Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026 statement sets the target range below 3.50-3.75 percent; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 54, 58 ], "failure_condition": "The September 16, 2026 FOMC statement holds the range at 3.50-3.75 percent or raises it.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:17Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-46", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:18.327367+00:00", "seal_sha256": "399e8449ab07a46a4461d11e682c926abb70c6fca1d7287bffde7902992c1cae" }, { "statement": "Treasury/OFAC will publish at least one additional Iran-related sanctions designation under Operation Economic Outcast between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-19, continuing the near-weekly cadence announced by Secretary Bessent.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 21, "resolution": "TRUE if OFAC's Recent Actions page lists a new Iran-related designation dated between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-19; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 72 ], "failure_condition": "No new Iran-related OFAC designation is dated within that window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:17Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-47", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:18.327374+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3ec13b2702b42119bfd47f5e5a16357e12a91169171f4b93ec61b1028eb57781" }, { "statement": "GDACS will upgrade at least one of its four Green forest-fire alerts logged 2026-09-04 (Mozambique event 1031563, DR Congo event 1031500, Zambia event 1031562, Ethiopia event 1031529) to Orange or Red between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-19.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 36, "resolution": "TRUE if the GDACS page for any of the four listed events shows Orange or Red level between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-19; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 28, 30, 31, 34 ], "failure_condition": "All four listed GDACS events stay at Green, or expire without upgrade, through 2026-09-19.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3617, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:17Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-48", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:18.327382+00:00", "seal_sha256": "95a3d74f194cace2e3bee21b848a0d46fd91f21ae59b7365bdbe7e98dcf044ce" }, { "statement": "The actively exploited Chrome V8 vulnerability CVE-2026-85046, patched by Google on 2026-09-03, will be added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-25.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog lists CVE-2026-85046 with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-25; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 16, 19 ], "failure_condition": "CVE-2026-85046 is absent from the CISA KEV catalog, or carries a dateAdded outside that window, as of the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:17Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-49", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:18.327390+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2beb245cb9d1cb71d130052652488f4c87f334ac42d0928122d3f7f40a6b1214" }, { "statement": "Sara Duterte will be held in physical government custody for more than 24 continuous hours under the Quezon City Regional Trial Court arrest warrant, at any point between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-25.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if two or more of AP, Reuters, or Al Jazeera report Duterte held in custody beyond 24 continuous hours between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-25; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 106, 107 ], "failure_condition": "Duterte posts bail and is released within 24 hours, or is never taken into physical custody, within that window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:17Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-50", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:18.327397+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b0d0724e1734701ba256e8f9ac31898597a42b0fd59b591c1d96c0da1c356ff4" }, { "statement": "Houthi forces will be reported to have gained physical control of coastal territory directly on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, beyond their existing inland and Hodeida-area positions, with the advance occurring between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-05.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "TRUE if two or more of Reuters, AP, AFP, or Al Jazeera report Houthi control of strait-front territory, not just Hodeida or inland areas, between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-05; otherwise FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-07", "citations": [ 80 ], "failure_condition": "Houthi forces remain confined to Hodeida and inland positions, without confirmed strait-front territory, through 2026-10-05.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:17Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-51", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:18.327403+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e9f98ef1ddb973703ad890ee938890cc07cf6c4b7962b881d5d916166d1f8b3e" }, { "statement": "CISA adds CVE-2026-85046, the Chrome V8 type confusion zero-day patched by Google on 2026-09-03, to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded between 2026-09-04 and 2026-09-25.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The CISA KEV JSON feed at the deadline contains an entry with cveID CVE-2026-85046 and a dateAdded value from 2026-09-04 through 2026-09-25 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 16, 19 ], "failure_condition": "At the deadline the KEV feed has no entry for CVE-2026-85046, or its dateAdded falls outside 2026-09-04 through 2026-09-25.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:18Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-52", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:19.335845+00:00", "seal_sha256": "02fd44ccf6a0396baa2fca0b39e8b02a1c8239809e5a74c75e68d18c40af4142" }, { "statement": "CISA adds CVE-2026-20212, the Cisco Nexus 9000 Silicon One unauthenticated root RCE disclosed 2026-09-02 with no known exploitation at seal, to the KEV catalog with a dateAdded between 2026-09-04 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The CISA KEV JSON feed at the deadline contains an entry with cveID CVE-2026-20212 and a dateAdded value from 2026-09-04 through 2026-11-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 25 ], "failure_condition": "At the deadline the KEV feed has no entry for CVE-2026-20212, or its dateAdded falls outside 2026-09-04 through 2026-11-30.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:18Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-53", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:19.335865+00:00", "seal_sha256": "14526546378ac81c333fdc9b3015953991c59277856f7e9952d02bc295d7bc62" }, { "statement": "In the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election held 2026-09-06, the AfD wins an absolute majority of all seats (strictly more than half, counting overhang and leveling seats) in the official preliminary result.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "The Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt official preliminary result (vorlaeufiges amtliches Endergebnis) for 2026-09-06 shows AfD seats strictly greater than half of all Landtag seats allocated.", "deadline": "2026-09-14", "citations": [ 115, 122 ], "failure_condition": "The official preliminary result allocates the AfD half or fewer of the total Landtag seats.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:18Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-54", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:19.335876+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a8479918bde9fea4fb81638836a29a910ad6d522f66aed574741e6729558ca41", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Control arm - projection derived from the ledger's own base rates; deducible by construction.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "At its scheduled 2026-09-15 to 2026-09-16 meeting the FOMC raises the federal funds target range above the range held at seal (reference: 3.50 to 3.75 percent on the packet date).", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 21, "resolution": "The FOMC statement dated 2026-09-16 on federalreserve.gov, or FRED series DFEDTARL observed for 2026-09-17, shows a target range lower bound above 3.50 percent.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 50, 54, 58 ], "failure_condition": "The 2026-09-16 FOMC statement leaves the target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent or sets a lower range.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:18Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-55", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:19.335885+00:00", "seal_sha256": "89f4f8b5b1a3d27a1d441bc2e31c7725fff660819417e0d6f0c032b162b2ab5c" }, { "statement": "CME NYMEX WTI crude (CL) front-month futures settle at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09 (reference: 90.35 on the packet date).", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 21, "resolution": "CME Group published daily settlement for the front-month CL contract is at or above 100.00 on at least one trading day from 2026-09-08 through 2026-10-09 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 72, 87, 92 ], "failure_condition": "Every front-month CL daily settlement from 2026-09-08 through 2026-10-09 is below 100.00.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:18Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-56", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:19.335893+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2f423a2f3e511a082189a6ea1fdf2c79759b004cd4e7223c03350fda25723dcc" }, { "statement": "US envoys Steve Witkoff and/or Jared Kushner are physically present in Kyiv and meet President Zelensky in person between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-13.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "The Office of the President of Ukraine (president.gov.ua) publishes a readout or photographs of the Kyiv meeting, and at least one of Reuters, AP or AFP independently reports the envoys in Kyiv within the window.", "deadline": "2026-09-16", "citations": [ 83, 99, 102 ], "failure_condition": "Neither Witkoff nor Kushner meets Zelensky in person in Kyiv on any day from 2026-09-05 through 2026-09-13.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:18Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-57", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:19.335900+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ba4c17dc7c0cfcf96ff212e0c87085643ee101af97ae365af15f2a0e4b109a3a" }, { "statement": "Houthi forces take control of the Yemeni port city of Mokha (al-Mukha), Taiz governorate, between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-02.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "Either the internationally recognized Yemeni government acknowledges loss of Mokha, or at least two of Reuters, AP and AFP report Houthi forces control the city center and port, for an event dated within the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 80 ], "failure_condition": "Government-aligned forces retain control of Mokha city and port on every day from 2026-09-04 through 2026-10-02.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:18Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-58", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:19.335907+00:00", "seal_sha256": "40cbd39201a180655a1432cee1e229a6b1f313e4c83825a3c9ebf36eb5028f12" }, { "statement": "The Philippine Court of Appeals or Supreme Court issues a temporary restraining order, status quo ante order, or injunction halting the Quezon City RTC Branch 98 grave threats proceedings against Vice President Sara Duterte between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "An order of the Court of Appeals or Supreme Court dated within the window suspends or enjoins the Branch 98 grave threats proceedings against Duterte, confirmed by the issuing court or by two of Rappler, Inquirer, Philstar, Reuters.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 106, 107 ], "failure_condition": "No Court of Appeals or Supreme Court order suspending or enjoining the Branch 98 grave threats proceedings against Duterte is issued from 2026-09-04 through 2026-10-30.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:18Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-59", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:19.335913+00:00", "seal_sha256": "107599e765290d593277b3acbcb98e6605d5c3de8270e5e2cf27c9b51f08857d" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-11 and 2026-09-25 the NSW Supreme Court sentences Daniel Billings for the murder of Molly Ticehurst to life imprisonment or to a non-parole period of 30 years or more.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 36, "resolution": "The sentencing judgment (NSW Caselaw, R v Billings) or reporting by ABC and AAP shows a sentence handed down within the window that is life imprisonment or carries a non-parole period of at least 30 years.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 10 ], "failure_condition": "The sentence handed down carries a non-parole period under 30 years and is not life imprisonment, or no sentence is delivered from 2026-09-11 through 2026-09-25.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3574, "n": 249, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:18Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-60", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:19.335921+00:00", "seal_sha256": "64f8fba40e55535adea63fd92d6fbf7aecc036a1f3df3be46ae8aee4f6c327c6" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one Google Chrome or Chromium V8 entry with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-04 and 2026-09-18.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "Fetch the CISA KEV JSON at the deadline; TRUE if any entry lists vendorProject Google, a product containing Chrome or Chromium V8, and dateAdded between 2026-09-04 and 2026-09-18.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 16, 19 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV JSON fetched at the deadline contains no Google Chrome or Chromium V8 entry with dateAdded between 2026-09-04 and 2026-09-18.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:19Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-61", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:20.338638+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b0e160fe1adde7573634643f96ed6d7544e47b7dd0c7ce8afc193686e52aa6ce" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog adds at least one entry with vendorProject CrowdStrike and a dateAdded value between 2026-09-04 and 2026-09-25, following the reported FalconFlank SYSTEM privilege zero-day.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "Fetch the CISA KEV JSON at the deadline; TRUE if any entry lists vendorProject CrowdStrike with dateAdded between 2026-09-04 and 2026-09-25; the entry need not be named FalconFlank.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 14 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV JSON fetched at the deadline contains no entry with vendorProject CrowdStrike and dateAdded between 2026-09-04 and 2026-09-25.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:19Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-62", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:20.338659+00:00", "seal_sha256": "70d788d972cb0f643aee740f1a2ef1a97de0b42996b2d620f20222951e5a4e7d" }, { "statement": "The 10-year US Treasury constant maturity yield prints at or above 5.00 percent on at least one business day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 4.78 percent on the packet date.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 21, "resolution": "TRUE if FRED series DGS10 records a value of 5.00 or higher for any date between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 4.78 at seal.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 50, 71, 49 ], "failure_condition": "All DGS10 values for dates between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30 remain below 5.00 percent.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:19Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-63", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:20.338670+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c09f70eabf1dcd0c072a872c40f2fd5175acf839f7e481eff8fc99c5f49b944d" }, { "statement": "The governments of Russia and Ukraine both announce a ceasefire or a mutual halt of long-range strikes with an effective date between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-16.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "TRUE if Reuters and AP each carry statements from both the Kremlin and the Ukrainian presidential office confirming the same ceasefire or strike-halt agreement effective within the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-20", "citations": [ 83, 102 ], "failure_condition": "No agreement confirmed by both governments and carried by both wire services has an effective date between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-16.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:19Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-64", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:20.338682+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7956e977ceacdeb87bb4d691780542d1d62308eaed22ec835faf0f6247e4a959" }, { "statement": "The USGS ComCat catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or greater within 150 km of the 2026-09-04 M6.3 epicenter near Nikolski, Alaska, with origin time between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-02.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 36, "resolution": "TRUE if a ComCat query centered on the M6.3 event coordinates, radius 150 km, minimum magnitude 5.0, returns at least one event with origin time inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 37 ], "failure_condition": "The specified ComCat query returns zero events of magnitude 5.0 or greater with origin time between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-02.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3617, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:19Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-65", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:20.338690+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0cbd850720159fa31c5d72244f8a3d0a66338fa91d606e75d4a530cd3449f251" }, { "statement": "Argentina publishes in the Boletin Oficial a decree or resolution imposing sanctions or restrictive economic measures aimed at the Falkland Islands, companies operating there, or UK entities over the islands, dated between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-16.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if the Boletin Oficial de la Republica Argentina carries such an instrument with publication date inside the window; verbal threats without a published instrument do not count.", "deadline": "2026-10-20", "citations": [ 121, 116 ], "failure_condition": "No qualifying decree or resolution appears in the Boletin Oficial with a publication date between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-16.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:19Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-66", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:20.338698+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b7bb61b54b8e2c492b6380111cb1d2012666693fb8b672f76ae416befe8eae75" }, { "statement": "The FOMC raises the federal funds target range at its scheduled 2026-09-16 decision. Reference: target range 3.50 to 3.75 percent on the packet date 2026-09-04.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 21, "resolution": "TRUE if the FOMC policy statement on federalreserve.gov for the 2026-09-15 to 2026-09-16 meeting sets a target range with upper bound above 3.75 percent. Adjudicated 2026-09-18.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 50, 54, 58 ], "failure_condition": "The FOMC statement issued 2026-09-16 leaves the upper bound of the target range at or below 3.75 percent.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:20Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-67", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:21.363245+00:00", "seal_sha256": "371869c693f2023ce75c93e8fee839befdae3804bd2eb617e10f93811ecd64f3" }, { "statement": "The South Korean government announces a naval or military deployment to Strait of Hormuz escort or security operations between 2026-09-07 and 2026-12-15.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "TRUE if the defence ministry or presidential office of South Korea announces such a deployment in that window and both Yonhap and Reuters report it. Adjudicated 2026-12-18.", "deadline": "2026-12-18", "citations": [ 87 ], "failure_condition": "No South Korean government announcement of a Hormuz naval or military deployment falls inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:20Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-68", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:21.363266+00:00", "seal_sha256": "151a7d370f25f1a1513a61692715bdd9aa736a647b649b8be33891e5e33a01b7" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog gains an entry for a Google Chromium V8 vulnerability with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-09.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities JSON contains a Google Chromium V8 record whose dateAdded falls between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-09. Adjudicated 2026-10-13.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 16, 19 ], "failure_condition": "The KEV catalog holds no Chromium V8 record with a dateAdded between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-09.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:20Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-69", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:21.363276+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a08a7e54cbf8412fba28238250ef783f09ea527e42ac6d83fc1dd0f15b433cec" }, { "statement": "A CVE for the Cisco Nexus 9000 unauthenticated remote code execution flaw enters the CISA KEV catalog with dateAdded between 2026-09-04 and 2027-02-15.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON lists a Cisco NX-OS or Nexus 9000 record matching that flaw with dateAdded between 2026-09-04 and 2027-02-15. Adjudicated 2027-02-18.", "deadline": "2027-02-18", "citations": [ 25 ], "failure_condition": "No Cisco Nexus 9000 or NX-OS record matching this flaw carries a KEV dateAdded inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:20Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-70", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:21.363289+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6ff934ee38580cd9da261da726e3cc64ef519a2f4002f81483fd07e541c9e77e" }, { "statement": "Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte is taken into physical custody or surrenders to a Philippine court between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if Philippine authorities book or process her in custody, or she surrenders in court, in that window, per Reuters and the Philippine Daily Inquirer. Adjudicated 2026-11-03.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 106, 107 ], "failure_condition": "She is neither booked into custody nor surrendered to a court on or before 2026-10-30.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:20Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-71", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:21.363296+00:00", "seal_sha256": "30c5df3700de7ab2ef94dd9d14177a3a00556cfcc8e0cecf5cdf1cd46b8770ae" }, { "statement": "USGS catalogs an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 300 km of event us7000tdvt with origin time between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 36, "resolution": "TRUE if a USGS ComCat query returns an M6.0 or greater event within 300 km of the us7000tdvt epicenter with origin time in that window. Adjudicated 2026-10-19.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 37 ], "failure_condition": "No USGS-catalogued M6.0 or greater event occurs within 300 km of us7000tdvt inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3617, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-04T18:07:20Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-04_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260904-72", "date_issued": "2026-09-04", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-04_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-04T18:07:21.363304+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b329bfca34359951b99d3152c49b46f516416b91a40ebf6480cbfcb1e3eafc34" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28, the S&P 500 index will close above 7,750.00 on at least one trading day.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 65, "resolution": "The S&P 500 closes at or above 7,750.00 on at least one trading day between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28, based on the official market close from a major exchange.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113 ], "failure_condition": "The S&P 500 never closes at or above 7,750.00 on any trading day between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28.", "id": "KKR-20260905-01", "date_issued": "2026-09-05", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-05T15:19:29.805457+00:00", "seal_sha256": "be7782e1261f9d74281ac45f4dc78ce9fd61f7ef5d0b71dfc88c2a8e6c09097a" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28, at least one new vulnerability in the PostgreSQL database system will be publicly disclosed and listed in the CISA KEV catalog.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 40, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog includes at least one new vulnerability affecting PostgreSQL, with a date-added value between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 21 ], "failure_condition": "No new PostgreSQL vulnerability is listed in the CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28.", "id": "KKR-20260905-02", "date_issued": "2026-09-05", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-05T15:19:29.805479+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ec17c05c6d3e99f1fc4917c87e5bdf0831fca929e4d5c8ed58ee309c80ac4f90" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28, the US dollar will trade above 1.17 against the euro on at least one trading day.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 55, "resolution": "The EUR/USD exchange rate exceeds 1.17 on at least one trading day between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28, based on the official market close from a major exchange.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113 ], "failure_condition": "The EUR/USD exchange rate never exceeds 1.17 on any trading day between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28.", "id": "KKR-20260905-03", "date_issued": "2026-09-05", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-05T15:19:29.805491+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9cc02e00355e974c2e3434ff74cae9b8fadb2da1f81522fcd4c1c9f6ab840d8c" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28, a new earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater will be recorded by the USGS in the Pacific Ring of Fire region.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The USGS Significant Quakes database records at least one earthquake with magnitude 6.0 or greater in the Pacific Ring of Fire region between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113 ], "failure_condition": "No earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater is recorded in the USGS Significant Quakes database in the Pacific Ring of Fire region between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28.", "id": "KKR-20260905-04", "date_issued": "2026-09-05", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-05T15:19:29.805500+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7a62a4b5b96311753e885e9c1f0854a5e5aed078949bf0deb095abe390512ed5" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28, at least one new forest fire in Africa will be reported by GDACS Alerts with a green or yellow alert level.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 35, "resolution": "GDACS Alerts reports at least one new forest fire in Africa with a green or yellow alert level between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 24, 25, 26, 27, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113 ], "failure_condition": "No new forest fire in Africa is reported by GDACS Alerts with a green or yellow alert level between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28.", "id": "KKR-20260905-05", "date_issued": "2026-09-05", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-05T15:19:29.805508+00:00", "seal_sha256": "778dcf11a1c380471bcb2dcfd1102a8c56e4cacbb29a9f22c50dcf49a88da6c3" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28, a major cyberattack exploiting the Citrix NetScaler auth bypass vulnerability will be confirmed by two or more independent sources.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 20, "resolution": "At least two independently biased sources (e.g., western, iranian, pro-ukraine, pro-russia) confirm a cyberattack exploiting the Citrix NetScaler auth bypass vulnerability (CVE-2026-XXXX) between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 20 ], "failure_condition": "No cyberattack exploiting the Citrix NetScaler auth bypass vulnerability is confirmed by two or more independently biased sources between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28.", "id": "KKR-20260905-06", "date_issued": "2026-09-05", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-05T15:19:29.805516+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f4786a8f30dd7e5394656b4f7df2bd94abfddc931e81fa20753a2bb04350e9b1" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28, the US will launch a new military operation in the Middle East targeting Iranian proxies, confirmed by at least two independent outlets.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 15, "resolution": "At least two independently biased outlets (e.g., western, iranian, pro-ukraine, pro-russia) confirm a new US military operation in the Middle East targeting Iranian proxies between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 64, 65, 66, 67, 69, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113 ], "failure_condition": "No new US military operation targeting Iranian proxies in the Middle East is confirmed by two or more independently biased outlets between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28.", "id": "KKR-20260905-07", "date_issued": "2026-09-05", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-05T15:19:29.805524+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f476994a92c279c6221523bbb078b40cfa3b606527a92ac7ffc014ad442682aa" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28, a new political scandal involving a US government official will be reported by two or more major news outlets with differing political leanings.", "domain": "political", "probability": 45, "resolution": "At least two major news outlets with differing political leanings (e.g., BBC World, Guardian World, CNBC Top News, Al Jazeera) report a new political scandal involving a US government official between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113 ], "failure_condition": "No new political scandal involving a US government official is reported by two or more major news outlets with differing political leanings between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28.", "id": "KKR-20260905-08", "date_issued": "2026-09-05", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-05T15:19:29.805532+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7282bd908d8c27fecbbd5318c2258db813db1af9a189201694e0bf09b1bc28d5" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12, at least one drone strike will be reported in the Kyiv region with confirmed casualties from a cross-bias source.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 25, "resolution": "At least one drone strike in the Kyiv region between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12 is confirmed by at least two independently biased sources reporting casualties.", "deadline": "2026-09-14", "citations": [ 6 ], "failure_condition": "No drone strike in the Kyiv region between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12 is confirmed by two independently biased sources reporting casualties.", "id": "KKR-20260905-09", "date_issued": "2026-09-05", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-05_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-05T15:21:44.699564+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1f9b2843e0dd477f7eef866ae2d4a8dd59769f508da518b6cd9f459236831136", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "lmstudio lane, realist frame arm: same local model, same positional citation of the packet, under a hashed frame that is part of the arm and not of the evidence path; KEYED by the standing lmstudio family ruling of 2026-08-15, extended to lmstudio/realist by the operator at import 2026-09-07. No shared vocabulary found by the grounding test is the positional habit, not a keyless claim.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12, a major cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-85046 will be confirmed by at least two independent sources.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 20, "resolution": "At least two independent sources confirm a cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-85046 between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12.", "deadline": "2026-09-14", "citations": [ 18 ], "failure_condition": "No cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-85046 is confirmed by two independent sources between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12.", "id": "KKR-20260905-10", "date_issued": "2026-09-05", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-05_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-05T15:21:44.699585+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0882a4e05fc0cb5252cc6aa4e0ba44f6e8571a5d3612b11dca27b74256a19407", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "lmstudio lane, realist frame arm: same local model, same positional citation of the packet, under a hashed frame that is part of the arm and not of the evidence path; KEYED by the standing lmstudio family ruling of 2026-08-15, extended to lmstudio/realist by the operator at import 2026-09-07. No shared vocabulary found by the grounding test is the positional habit, not a keyless claim.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12, the US will conduct a military strike on an Iranian oil tanker in the Persian Gulf.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 35, "resolution": "A US military strike on an Iranian oil tanker in the Persian Gulf is confirmed by at least two independently biased sources between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12.", "deadline": "2026-09-14", "citations": [ 64 ], "failure_condition": "No US military strike on an Iranian oil tanker in the Persian Gulf is confirmed by two independently biased sources between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12.", "id": "KKR-20260905-11", "date_issued": "2026-09-05", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-05_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-05T15:21:44.699596+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d5692728889af088861f648eb1bd1ee5db66f20b7c1abc9b69cf8503be4e5019", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [64] carry the claim's operative terms (iranian, tanker); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12, a new earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or higher will be recorded in the USGS Significant Quakes database.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 15, "resolution": "A new earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or higher is recorded in the USGS Significant Quakes database between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12.", "deadline": "2026-09-14", "citations": [ 30 ], "failure_condition": "No earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or higher is recorded in the USGS Significant Quakes database between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12.", "id": "KKR-20260905-12", "date_issued": "2026-09-05", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-05_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-05T15:21:44.699605+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5b0532673562074c6a9ecabcf6f6e47bf32c39cdc104701423ce4ad1374af65e", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [30] carry the claim's operative terms (quake, significant); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12, at least one forest fire in Africa will be reported by GDACS Alerts with a green alert level.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 40, "resolution": "At least one forest fire in Africa is reported by GDACS Alerts with a green alert level between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12.", "deadline": "2026-09-14", "citations": [ 24, 25, 26, 27 ], "failure_condition": "No forest fire in Africa is reported by GDACS Alerts with a green alert level between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12.", "id": "KKR-20260905-13", "date_issued": "2026-09-05", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-05_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-05T15:21:44.699614+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c72cac00a1fa312dde803211d55eb98e1eb7b1824d2adda302910f8127170393", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [24, 25, 26, 27] carry the claim's operative terms (alert, fire, forest, green); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12, the US will announce new sanctions on Iran related to regional proxy activities.", "domain": "political", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The US announces new sanctions on Iran related to regional proxy activities between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12, confirmed by at least two independently biased sources.", "deadline": "2026-09-14", "citations": [ 6 ], "failure_condition": "No new US sanctions on Iran related to regional proxy activities are announced and confirmed by two independently biased sources between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12.", "id": "KKR-20260905-14", "date_issued": "2026-09-05", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-05_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-05T15:21:44.699622+00:00", "seal_sha256": "be82f325c87592bbf6c53599743fdffe7d1de3927549460d291cb6fe80f6cca9", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "Cited prior(s) [6] carry the claim's operative terms (iran); a hit is deducible from the cited record.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12, a new political scandal involving a US government official will be reported by at least two independent sources.", "domain": "political", "probability": 45, "resolution": "A new political scandal involving a US government official is reported by at least two independent sources between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12.", "deadline": "2026-09-14", "citations": [ 99 ], "failure_condition": "No new political scandal involving a US government official is reported by two independent sources between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12.", "id": "KKR-20260905-15", "date_issued": "2026-09-05", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-05_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-05T15:21:44.699629+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9f81100f9a2141d7ca014868535a4125ce9a7211e4f64a227decd754747b2bd8", "keyed_keyless": "keyed", "keyed_keyless_rationale": "lmstudio lane, realist frame arm: same local model, same positional citation of the packet, under a hashed frame that is part of the arm and not of the evidence path; KEYED by the standing lmstudio family ruling of 2026-08-15, extended to lmstudio/realist by the operator at import 2026-09-07. No shared vocabulary found by the grounding test is the positional habit, not a keyless claim.", "keyed_keyless_dated": "2026-09-07" }, { "statement": "Cumulative fatalities from the Yemen government-Houthi fighting referenced in the 2026-09-05 packet (ground combat, missile strikes) exceed 100 people, tallied at any point between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-20.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 38, "resolution": "TRUE if at least two of Reuters, AP, Al Jazeera, or BBC report a cumulative Yemen fatality count above 100 for this conflict phase between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-20, confirmed as of 2026-09-22; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 75, 79, 81 ], "failure_condition": "MISS if no two named outlets report a cumulative fatality count above 100 for this conflict phase by 2026-09-22.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-01", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:46.267329+00:00", "seal_sha256": "59768a76a5da6374e70b4829467e2906dd343e1a7c161390befb1b90ac81a188" }, { "statement": "Russia and Ukraine, or their authorized representatives, publicly announce a signed ceasefire or peace agreement covering the active front line, following the 2026-09-05 arrival of US envoys Witkoff and Kushner in Moscow, at any point between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 9, "resolution": "TRUE if at least two of Reuters, AP, BBC, or a joint Russian-Ukrainian government statement confirm a signed ceasefire between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-15, confirmed as of 2026-10-19; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 65, 72 ], "failure_condition": "MISS if no signed ceasefire or peace agreement is confirmed by two of the named sources between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-15, as checked on 2026-10-19.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-02", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:46.267351+00:00", "seal_sha256": "edb72cac66e34cb87b2af5e143b86d414673f9744d5b875664a526455be27d23" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds a new entry for a Citrix NetScaler authentication-bypass vulnerability, with a Date Added value between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-19, following the 2026-09-04 BleepingComputer report of active exploitation.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 52, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog at cisa.gov lists a Citrix NetScaler authentication-bypass CVE with a Date Added value in that window, checked as of 2026-09-21; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-21", "citations": [ 20 ], "failure_condition": "MISS if no Citrix NetScaler authentication-bypass CVE carries a Date Added value between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-19 in the CISA KEV catalog as of 2026-09-21.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-03", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:46.267365+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5a542f8b331cc9e3571d6af8265c33f62debec295781e5c3ad3c762527a49c0e" }, { "statement": "Pete Hegseth leaves his Pentagon leadership role (resignation, removal, or reassignment), following the criticism referenced in the 2026-09-05 Guardian report, at any point between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "political", "probability": 8, "resolution": "TRUE if at least two of AP, Reuters, or BBC report that Hegseth has left his Pentagon leadership post between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-31, confirmed as of 2026-11-02; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-11-02", "citations": [ 99 ], "failure_condition": "MISS if Hegseth remains in his Pentagon leadership post through 2026-10-31 with no departure confirmed by two named outlets as of 2026-11-02.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-04", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:46.267377+00:00", "seal_sha256": "23cb3206c77d41efa778d07394704af4010962e81b025b4bd0774c7d3cea0562" }, { "statement": "Prosecutors formally move to retry Lindsay Clancy, or a court schedules a retrial date, following the mistrial declared per the 2026-09-04 and 2026-09-05 reporting, at any point between 2026-09-06 and 2026-12-05.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 68, "resolution": "TRUE if at least one of Guardian or BBC reports that prosecutors have moved to retry Lindsay Clancy or that a retrial date is set, dated between 2026-09-06 and 2026-12-05, confirmed as of 2026-12-07; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-12-07", "citations": [ 9, 12 ], "failure_condition": "MISS if no retrial motion or scheduling for Lindsay Clancy is reported by Guardian or BBC between 2026-09-06 and 2026-12-05, as checked on 2026-12-07.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-05", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:46.267385+00:00", "seal_sha256": "048f8f99f8bd6ee379c7211007b93516812ee52b5ec84331d24c0863e717f1dd" }, { "statement": "GDACS raises its alert level for Tropical Cyclone TWENTYTHREE-26 (event ID 1001319) from Green to Orange or Red before the system dissipates, at any point between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-19. Reference: Green alert as of 2026-09-04.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 13, "resolution": "TRUE if the GDACS event page for event ID 1001319 shows an Orange or Red alert level at any point between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-19, checked as of 2026-09-21; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-21", "citations": [ 38 ], "failure_condition": "MISS if the GDACS alert level for event 1001319 never reaches Orange or Red between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-19, as checked on 2026-09-21.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-06", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:46.267393+00:00", "seal_sha256": "69d20c45cd9cf3c82eda22d0d0e2d59d1179812badbca47bc7043c70ea342eac" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-26, US forces strike, disable, or destroy at least one additional Iranian oil tanker or crude carrier, as announced by US Central Command.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 50, "resolution": "TRUE if a US Central Command statement dated 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-26, carried by Reuters, AP, or AFP, reports a US strike on at least one Iranian oil tanker or crude carrier in that window, excluding the three struck 2026-09-05.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 64, 67, 69 ], "failure_condition": "No US strike on any Iranian oil tanker or crude carrier other than the three struck on 2026-09-05 occurs between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-26.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-07", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:47.188751+00:00", "seal_sha256": "63ae52e699c89a341cd6cb30630292748d436cca8f9b42e6dc46e8ae31320659" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-03, the governments of Russia and Ukraine both publicly confirm a general ceasefire or cessation-of-hostilities agreement covering the entire front line.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 8, "resolution": "TRUE if, between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-03, official statements from both the Kremlin and the Ukrainian presidency confirm a front-wide ceasefire agreement, reported by Reuters or AP. Partial truces (energy, Black Sea, humanitarian pauses) do not count.", "deadline": "2026-10-07", "citations": [ 65, 72, 97 ], "failure_condition": "No front-wide ceasefire agreement is confirmed by both the Russian and Ukrainian governments between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-03.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-08", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:47.188773+00:00", "seal_sha256": "10e973089897e018fe80015ad1a934aebc6fd879c8e3dedf679c5dade567f68e" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-05 and 2027-03-01, the US Fish and Wildlife Service publishes in the Federal Register a proposed rule to delist or downlist the gray wolf or Mexican wolf under the Endangered Species Act.", "domain": "political", "probability": 40, "resolution": "TRUE if federalregister.gov shows a document of type Proposed Rule from the Fish and Wildlife Service, publication date 2026-09-05 through 2027-03-01, proposing removal or reclassification of the gray wolf or Mexican wolf under the ESA.", "deadline": "2027-03-03", "citations": [ 103 ], "failure_condition": "No Fish and Wildlife Service proposed rule to delist or downlist the gray wolf or Mexican wolf appears in the Federal Register with a publication date between 2026-09-05 and 2027-03-01.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-09", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:47.188785+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8689b1d39e831f213e73cb24bb9b1438959f920d1f19ee6dce1c66f80eee06ee" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-25, the US Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control publishes at least one Iran-related designation action.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 90, "resolution": "TRUE if the OFAC Recent Actions page (ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions) lists at least one action dated 2026-09-08 through 2026-09-25 whose title contains Iran-related Designations or Iran-related Designation Updates.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 93, 67 ], "failure_condition": "No OFAC Recent Actions entry dated between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-25 carries an Iran-related Designations or Iran-related Designation Updates title.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-10", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:47.188795+00:00", "seal_sha256": "af4f626ebdbd042ed95bde4e0293d2fd18ae32a5eef4861a07a07036b453b6c1" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds CVE-2026-19490 (Citrix NetScaler ADC and Gateway authentication bypass) with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-25.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 55, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed contains an entry for CVE-2026-19490 whose dateAdded field is between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-25 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 20 ], "failure_condition": "CVE-2026-19490 is absent from the KEV catalog at the deadline, or its dateAdded value falls outside 2026-09-05 through 2026-09-25.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-11", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:47.188803+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d7fe9f1da3c90e0960b82c7401fe187a5d94bda2e8e15e75a2be6296ce40d4fc" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-30, the Plymouth County District Attorney announces that the Commonwealth will retry Lindsay Clancy on the murder charges, or the Plymouth Superior Court schedules a retrial date.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 65, "resolution": "TRUE if, between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-30, the Plymouth County DA states that Clancy will be retried on the murder charges, or the court docket sets a retrial date, per AP or the Boston Globe.", "deadline": "2026-11-02", "citations": [ 9, 12 ], "failure_condition": "By 2026-10-30 the DA has not announced a retrial and no retrial date is on the docket, including if the charges are resolved by plea or dismissed.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-12", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:47.188810+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9f6c3b65d83d2542ede2e0174eec69a321eebdcfe0c035d835b5961b01ebe2d0" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-26, the USGS catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater with epicenter within 300 km of USGS event us7000tdvt (M6.3, 84 km SSW of Nikolski, Alaska).", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 12, "resolution": "TRUE if the USGS earthquake catalog (earthquake.usgs.gov) lists at least one event of magnitude 6.0 or greater, origin time 2026-09-06 through 2026-09-26 UTC, with epicenter within 300 km of event us7000tdvt.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 30 ], "failure_condition": "No magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake with epicenter within 300 km of us7000tdvt has origin time between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-26 UTC in the USGS catalog.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-13", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:47.188816+00:00", "seal_sha256": "634a2252f9847aa0258c2b9e16c51f3745e280f42c974e6da0aab51cab1601b5" }, { "statement": "US forces conduct at least one additional military strike on Iranian military, IRGC, or Iranian state-owned assets between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-30, following the 2026-09-05 strikes on three Iranian oil tankers.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 65, "resolution": "At least two of Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera report a US strike on Iranian military, IRGC, or state-owned assets occurring between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 64, 67, 69 ], "failure_condition": "No US strike on Iranian military, IRGC, or Iranian state-owned assets occurs between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-30.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-14", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:48.116998+00:00", "seal_sha256": "50316ad3bbf1742a27f6ecc6193af3c2bfa9887dc65a44563ddceeb0903f5045" }, { "statement": "Iranian military or IRGC forces attack, board, or seize a commercial merchant vessel in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, or Gulf of Oman between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-05.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 25, "resolution": "At least two of Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera report Iranian military or IRGC forces attacking, boarding, or seizing a commercial merchant vessel in those waters between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-05.", "deadline": "2026-10-08", "citations": [ 64, 67, 93 ], "failure_condition": "Iranian state forces conduct no attack, boarding, or seizure of a commercial merchant vessel in the named waters between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-05.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-15", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:48.117019+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ce700488dd9b01d61661ee963b8116ba3737b8e343d256f83028415c2332e865" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry for the Citrix NetScaler ADC or NetScaler Gateway authentication bypass with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-02.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 75, "resolution": "The public CISA KEV catalog contains an entry naming Citrix NetScaler ADC or NetScaler Gateway with an authentication bypass description and dateAdded between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-02.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 20 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog contains no Citrix NetScaler authentication bypass entry with dateAdded between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-02.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-16", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:48.117030+00:00", "seal_sha256": "234c4696dfa9d8929cae8a1e37d7851e3f612d8ff03c124d0e407aed9c9d0740" }, { "statement": "The Federal Register publishes a US Fish and Wildlife Service or Interior Department document proposing or finalizing removal of Endangered Species Act protections for the gray wolf, with publication date between 2026-09-08 and 2027-03-01.", "domain": "political", "probability": 60, "resolution": "federalregister.gov contains a FWS or Interior document proposing or finalizing gray wolf ESA delisting with publication date between 2026-09-08 and 2027-03-01.", "deadline": "2027-03-04", "citations": [ 103 ], "failure_condition": "No FWS or Interior gray wolf delisting document appears in the Federal Register with publication date between 2026-09-08 and 2027-03-01.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-17", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:48.117039+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6c91eea213f92aab863a4e1fcbbbf8b202002ca40e0c16abe48954b5894b21c5" }, { "statement": "The Plymouth County District Attorney announces the office will retry Lindsay Clancy, or a retrial date is entered on the court docket, between 2026-09-06 and 2026-12-04.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 50, "resolution": "An on-record DA retrial announcement carried by two of AP, Reuters, BBC, Boston Globe, or a Plymouth Superior Court docket entry scheduling retrial, dated between 2026-09-06 and 2026-12-04.", "deadline": "2026-12-08", "citations": [ 9, 12 ], "failure_condition": "Neither a DA retrial announcement nor a docket entry scheduling retrial exists dated between 2026-09-06 and 2026-12-04.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-18", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:48.117047+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c46cf193a5121bf8e4633adb3037e914846d23396349884ef8c1a8f289184c9f" }, { "statement": "The criminal trial of Andrew and Tristan Tate on the Romanian trafficking indictment opens with a first hearing on the merits between 2026-09-06 and 2027-02-26.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 20, "resolution": "At least two of BBC, Reuters, AP report the Tate brothers criminal trial in Romania has held its opening hearing on the merits between 2026-09-06 and 2027-02-26.", "deadline": "2027-03-02", "citations": [ 110 ], "failure_condition": "No opening hearing on the merits in the Tate brothers Romanian criminal case occurs between 2026-09-06 and 2027-02-26.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-19", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:48.117054+00:00", "seal_sha256": "35e973eb186bb5ede18222064c8527806eb04ebe203de3f4dbb1c3715bc598d9" }, { "statement": "The governments of Russia and Ukraine both announce a signed general ceasefire agreement between 2026-09-06 and 2026-12-04.", "domain": "political", "probability": 12, "resolution": "Official statements from both the Russian and Ukrainian governments announcing a signed general ceasefire, each carried by at least two of Reuters, AP, BBC, dated between 2026-09-06 and 2026-12-04.", "deadline": "2026-12-08", "citations": [ 65, 72, 97 ], "failure_condition": "No general ceasefire agreement is announced by both the Russian and Ukrainian governments between 2026-09-06 and 2026-12-04.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-20", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:48.117064+00:00", "seal_sha256": "75e90cfd08d8d3b2d4d6efd63d8b69216fcbe6ee88c752f4220eb05f9a01de13" }, { "statement": "USGS ComCat lists at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater with epicenter between 50N and 55N latitude and 175W and 164W longitude, with origin time between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-05 UTC.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 20, "resolution": "The public USGS ComCat catalog contains at least one M6.0 or greater event inside the stated latitude-longitude box with origin time between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-05 UTC.", "deadline": "2026-10-07", "citations": [ 30 ], "failure_condition": "USGS ComCat contains no M6.0 or greater event inside the stated box with origin time between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-05 UTC.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-21", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:48.117070+00:00", "seal_sha256": "cda0f40a136ba1d729244cbf38875bebde305c7101b511a1f20450253880ddac" }, { "statement": "An AfD politician is elected minister-president of a German state, or the AfD formally enters a state governing coalition, between 2026-09-06 and 2027-03-01.", "domain": "political", "probability": 15, "resolution": "At least two of Reuters, AP, Deutsche Welle, BBC report an AfD minister-president election or formal AfD entry into a state governing coalition between 2026-09-06 and 2027-03-01.", "deadline": "2027-03-04", "citations": [ 113 ], "failure_condition": "No AfD minister-president is elected and the AfD enters no state governing coalition between 2026-09-06 and 2027-03-01.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-22", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:48.117077+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f2fcd5b5f92bd2b144a5cfd7653f2dc6bf43f436fe955d160ab497215f836e41" }, { "statement": "Russia and Ukraine jointly announce a ceasefire covering the entire line of contact, taking effect between 2026-09-06 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 14, "resolution": "TRUE only if both the Kremlin and the Ukrainian presidency announce a front-wide ceasefire taking effect in the window. Partial, capital-specific, or energy-infrastructure-only pauses do not count.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 65, 72, 97 ], "failure_condition": "No front-wide ceasefire is announced by both governments with effect inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-23", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:49.041212+00:00", "seal_sha256": "284ce7ccda4e415f42431104fa6a7f28424b16ce17038d92abb3cb8272b6fc8f" }, { "statement": "Yemeni government or Saudi-led coalition forces announce the capture of a named district in Houthi-held Hodeidah, al-Jawf, or Saada governorate, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-19.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if a government or coalition claim of capturing a named district in those three governorates in the window is corroborated by Houthi-aligned media or by Reuters, AFP, or AP.", "deadline": "2026-10-22", "citations": [ 75, 81 ], "failure_condition": "No named district in those three governorates changes hands by announced capture during the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-24", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:49.041235+00:00", "seal_sha256": "15f1e81bd3f0e37a3b1f4b6bc6b05e56fe98c12b49159e011725cddc53408d16" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog carries an entry for CVE-2026-19490, the Citrix NetScaler authentication bypass, added between 2026-09-06 and 2026-11-20.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 55, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed contains CVE-2026-19490 with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-06 and 2026-11-20 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-24", "citations": [ 20 ], "failure_condition": "CVE-2026-19490 is absent from the KEV catalog, or carries a dateAdded outside that range.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-25", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:49.041246+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e66ca9744a62c41ce0427da1cfa8a4c8ca20453f9865993142cdbec0dfca7dee" }, { "statement": "The Plymouth County District Attorney publicly announces that Massachusetts will retry Lindsay Clancy, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-11.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 45, "resolution": "TRUE if that office states in the window that it intends to retry Clancy, reported by at least two of AP, Reuters, Boston Globe, WCVB, WBZ.", "deadline": "2026-12-15", "citations": [ 9, 12 ], "failure_condition": "No retrial decision is announced in the window, or the case instead ends by dismissal or plea.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-26", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:49.041254+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9afc23b6c6a115abd06506a6253ec47954877b93779938e1ebe0f3d121707675" }, { "statement": "The USGS earthquake catalog records at least two events of magnitude 7.0 or greater worldwide between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-19.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 50, "resolution": "TRUE if a USGS ComCat query bounded by 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-19 returns two or more events of magnitude 7.0 or greater.", "deadline": "2026-10-23", "citations": [ 23, 30 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS catalog shows fewer than two magnitude 7.0 or greater events in the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-27", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:49.041264+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b57a1d718cadf1934548f33f9c274e90a54ecddd97cdd0e09eed712a9ac73bc8" }, { "statement": "Cumulative fatalities from the Yemen government-Houthi fighting referenced in the 2026-09-05 packet (ground combat, missile strikes) exceed 100 people, tallied at any point between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-20.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "TRUE if at least two of Reuters, AP, Al Jazeera, or BBC report a cumulative Yemen fatality count above 100 for this conflict phase between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-20, confirmed as of 2026-09-22; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 75, 79, 81 ], "failure_condition": "MISS if no two named outlets report a cumulative fatality count above 100 for this conflict phase by 2026-09-22.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T03:23:49Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-28", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:50.099741+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d5d986563425072e4c3b9241fd9dcdf8fe4c1061ab6b4cfb2d5521c5aad85e29" }, { "statement": "Russia and Ukraine, or their authorized representatives, publicly announce a signed ceasefire or peace agreement covering the active front line, following the 2026-09-05 arrival of US envoys Witkoff and Kushner in Moscow, at any point between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-15.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "TRUE if at least two of Reuters, AP, BBC, or a joint Russian-Ukrainian government statement confirm a signed ceasefire between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-15, confirmed as of 2026-10-19; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-10-19", "citations": [ 65, 72 ], "failure_condition": "MISS if no signed ceasefire or peace agreement is confirmed by two of the named sources between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-15, as checked on 2026-10-19.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T03:23:49Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-29", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:50.099762+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9a561646b01dcf5c50b787eb0427b3ff3def737bf580009a1c02559c52c07c27" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds a new entry for a Citrix NetScaler authentication-bypass vulnerability, with a Date Added value between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-19, following the 2026-09-04 BleepingComputer report of active exploitation.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog at cisa.gov lists a Citrix NetScaler authentication-bypass CVE with a Date Added value in that window, checked as of 2026-09-21; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-21", "citations": [ 20 ], "failure_condition": "MISS if no Citrix NetScaler authentication-bypass CVE carries a Date Added value between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-19 in the CISA KEV catalog as of 2026-09-21.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T03:23:49Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-30", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:50.099774+00:00", "seal_sha256": "92978478f454aa5290db49c6e8dd3be92ec6ebb579ceada5b8091331cdd1a908" }, { "statement": "Pete Hegseth leaves his Pentagon leadership role (resignation, removal, or reassignment), following the criticism referenced in the 2026-09-05 Guardian report, at any point between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if at least two of AP, Reuters, or BBC report that Hegseth has left his Pentagon leadership post between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-31, confirmed as of 2026-11-02; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-11-02", "citations": [ 99 ], "failure_condition": "MISS if Hegseth remains in his Pentagon leadership post through 2026-10-31 with no departure confirmed by two named outlets as of 2026-11-02.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T03:23:49Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-31", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:50.099784+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2c624b73eb96506fb93773feae029eb8578abe9d692f049404c811d55fceadf2" }, { "statement": "Prosecutors formally move to retry Lindsay Clancy, or a court schedules a retrial date, following the mistrial declared per the 2026-09-04 and 2026-09-05 reporting, at any point between 2026-09-06 and 2026-12-05.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 36, "resolution": "TRUE if at least one of Guardian or BBC reports that prosecutors have moved to retry Lindsay Clancy or that a retrial date is set, dated between 2026-09-06 and 2026-12-05, confirmed as of 2026-12-07; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-12-07", "citations": [ 9, 12 ], "failure_condition": "MISS if no retrial motion or scheduling for Lindsay Clancy is reported by Guardian or BBC between 2026-09-06 and 2026-12-05, as checked on 2026-12-07.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3574, "n": 249, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T03:23:49Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-32", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:50.099791+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4d6ea2c9cc84d867c5b0517e09d815c74973474f97fddb9d8fefff517f817f76" }, { "statement": "GDACS raises its alert level for Tropical Cyclone TWENTYTHREE-26 (event ID 1001319) from Green to Orange or Red before the system dissipates, at any point between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-19. Reference: Green alert as of 2026-09-04.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 36, "resolution": "TRUE if the GDACS event page for event ID 1001319 shows an Orange or Red alert level at any point between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-19, checked as of 2026-09-21; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-09-21", "citations": [ 38 ], "failure_condition": "MISS if the GDACS alert level for event 1001319 never reaches Orange or Red between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-19, as checked on 2026-09-21.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3617, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T03:23:49Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-33", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:50.099799+00:00", "seal_sha256": "65d3c4f613469d7020373218f8e4c96a23d0954640444977e17f6d3a3197342b" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-26, US forces strike, disable, or destroy at least one additional Iranian oil tanker or crude carrier, as announced by US Central Command.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "TRUE if a US Central Command statement dated 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-26, carried by Reuters, AP, or AFP, reports a US strike on at least one Iranian oil tanker or crude carrier in that window, excluding the three struck 2026-09-05.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 64, 67, 69 ], "failure_condition": "No US strike on any Iranian oil tanker or crude carrier other than the three struck on 2026-09-05 occurs between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-26.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T03:23:50Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-34", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:51.124140+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a27b893253a13d6785997536c4bbf83ecd12102993cfdbe3c30049e54757e33c" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-03, the governments of Russia and Ukraine both publicly confirm a general ceasefire or cessation-of-hostilities agreement covering the entire front line.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "TRUE if, between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-03, official statements from both the Kremlin and the Ukrainian presidency confirm a front-wide ceasefire agreement, reported by Reuters or AP. Partial truces (energy, Black Sea, humanitarian pauses) do not count.", "deadline": "2026-10-07", "citations": [ 65, 72, 97 ], "failure_condition": "No front-wide ceasefire agreement is confirmed by both the Russian and Ukrainian governments between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-03.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T03:23:50Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-35", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:51.124162+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ca109d61486a15dce3d2adbe31f767c925796a2bdc186a7e1ddc54f7afe1d489" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-05 and 2027-03-01, the US Fish and Wildlife Service publishes in the Federal Register a proposed rule to delist or downlist the gray wolf or Mexican wolf under the Endangered Species Act.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if federalregister.gov shows a document of type Proposed Rule from the Fish and Wildlife Service, publication date 2026-09-05 through 2027-03-01, proposing removal or reclassification of the gray wolf or Mexican wolf under the ESA.", "deadline": "2027-03-03", "citations": [ 103 ], "failure_condition": "No Fish and Wildlife Service proposed rule to delist or downlist the gray wolf or Mexican wolf appears in the Federal Register with a publication date between 2026-09-05 and 2027-03-01.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T03:23:50Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-36", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:51.124176+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f6c7de7f397a48b0b76617777bef3739b0833e4ea3836d3d3f6985e0fafb4f1c" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-25, the US Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control publishes at least one Iran-related designation action.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 21, "resolution": "TRUE if the OFAC Recent Actions page (ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions) lists at least one action dated 2026-09-08 through 2026-09-25 whose title contains Iran-related Designations or Iran-related Designation Updates.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 93, 67 ], "failure_condition": "No OFAC Recent Actions entry dated between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-25 carries an Iran-related Designations or Iran-related Designation Updates title.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T03:23:50Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-37", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:51.124185+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ee4636fd97d06c363cdb57210d0fb9097b506419c28cd065f86315c90711e8b5" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds CVE-2026-19490 (Citrix NetScaler ADC and Gateway authentication bypass) with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-25.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed contains an entry for CVE-2026-19490 whose dateAdded field is between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-25 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 20 ], "failure_condition": "CVE-2026-19490 is absent from the KEV catalog at the deadline, or its dateAdded value falls outside 2026-09-05 through 2026-09-25.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T03:23:50Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-38", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:51.124194+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2abb50577ea6e043c14a3c23352a3e9466bbf578870a7f38ff88cb0ce03389dc" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-30, the Plymouth County District Attorney announces that the Commonwealth will retry Lindsay Clancy on the murder charges, or the Plymouth Superior Court schedules a retrial date.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 36, "resolution": "TRUE if, between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-30, the Plymouth County DA states that Clancy will be retried on the murder charges, or the court docket sets a retrial date, per AP or the Boston Globe.", "deadline": "2026-11-02", "citations": [ 9, 12 ], "failure_condition": "By 2026-10-30 the DA has not announced a retrial and no retrial date is on the docket, including if the charges are resolved by plea or dismissed.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3574, "n": 249, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T03:23:50Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-39", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:51.124202+00:00", "seal_sha256": "04ebe514dc1d50d53a442d6e4a39c3a1224236a46ce272c1ba0402684dca56ef" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-26, the USGS catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater with epicenter within 300 km of USGS event us7000tdvt (M6.3, 84 km SSW of Nikolski, Alaska).", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 36, "resolution": "TRUE if the USGS earthquake catalog (earthquake.usgs.gov) lists at least one event of magnitude 6.0 or greater, origin time 2026-09-06 through 2026-09-26 UTC, with epicenter within 300 km of event us7000tdvt.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 30 ], "failure_condition": "No magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake with epicenter within 300 km of us7000tdvt has origin time between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-26 UTC in the USGS catalog.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3617, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T03:23:50Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-40", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:51.124210+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8a5b22809f2b8aaafbf2a9fa2f96415b59d0eb6ac72a973962d454abb361587a" }, { "statement": "US forces conduct at least one additional military strike on Iranian military, IRGC, or Iranian state-owned assets between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-30, following the 2026-09-05 strikes on three Iranian oil tankers.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "At least two of Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera report a US strike on Iranian military, IRGC, or state-owned assets occurring between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 64, 67, 69 ], "failure_condition": "No US strike on Iranian military, IRGC, or Iranian state-owned assets occurs between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-30.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T03:23:51Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-41", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:52.158094+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0783cf03a0ade9e5b70755d2d3420d562cfef8786bdc413c04b683620fccd2be" }, { "statement": "Iranian military or IRGC forces attack, board, or seize a commercial merchant vessel in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, or Gulf of Oman between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-05.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "At least two of Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera report Iranian military or IRGC forces attacking, boarding, or seizing a commercial merchant vessel in those waters between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-05.", "deadline": "2026-10-08", "citations": [ 64, 67, 93 ], "failure_condition": "Iranian state forces conduct no attack, boarding, or seizure of a commercial merchant vessel in the named waters between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-05.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T03:23:51Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-42", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:52.158114+00:00", "seal_sha256": "526188055eb456d514f115a31692079b2e07d65d43a16e02719228a3a33b8d1c" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry for the Citrix NetScaler ADC or NetScaler Gateway authentication bypass with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-02.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The public CISA KEV catalog contains an entry naming Citrix NetScaler ADC or NetScaler Gateway with an authentication bypass description and dateAdded between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-02.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 20 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog contains no Citrix NetScaler authentication bypass entry with dateAdded between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-02.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T03:23:51Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-43", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:52.158125+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8f3936023babdb91879b135b1f78f2a12b31beb00a1edeff05669a8eaf2f4c65" }, { "statement": "The Federal Register publishes a US Fish and Wildlife Service or Interior Department document proposing or finalizing removal of Endangered Species Act protections for the gray wolf, with publication date between 2026-09-08 and 2027-03-01.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "federalregister.gov contains a FWS or Interior document proposing or finalizing gray wolf ESA delisting with publication date between 2026-09-08 and 2027-03-01.", "deadline": "2027-03-04", "citations": [ 103 ], "failure_condition": "No FWS or Interior gray wolf delisting document appears in the Federal Register with publication date between 2026-09-08 and 2027-03-01.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T03:23:51Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-44", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:52.158133+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a099d2526b3f54aaef4dd261606733963f5480dc9ceeaa681d21402b6e367b39" }, { "statement": "The Plymouth County District Attorney announces the office will retry Lindsay Clancy, or a retrial date is entered on the court docket, between 2026-09-06 and 2026-12-04.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 36, "resolution": "An on-record DA retrial announcement carried by two of AP, Reuters, BBC, Boston Globe, or a Plymouth Superior Court docket entry scheduling retrial, dated between 2026-09-06 and 2026-12-04.", "deadline": "2026-12-08", "citations": [ 9, 12 ], "failure_condition": "Neither a DA retrial announcement nor a docket entry scheduling retrial exists dated between 2026-09-06 and 2026-12-04.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3574, "n": 249, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T03:23:51Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-45", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:52.158142+00:00", "seal_sha256": "64b68cf6536a85b64082687d024ba8aaa2e39cbab47eac637ef7677b7885bc28" }, { "statement": "The criminal trial of Andrew and Tristan Tate on the Romanian trafficking indictment opens with a first hearing on the merits between 2026-09-06 and 2027-02-26.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 36, "resolution": "At least two of BBC, Reuters, AP report the Tate brothers criminal trial in Romania has held its opening hearing on the merits between 2026-09-06 and 2027-02-26.", "deadline": "2027-03-02", "citations": [ 110 ], "failure_condition": "No opening hearing on the merits in the Tate brothers Romanian criminal case occurs between 2026-09-06 and 2027-02-26.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3574, "n": 249, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T03:23:51Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-46", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:52.158149+00:00", "seal_sha256": "27b60b4def34e979629a0c8d03974a0907395d8667176b37f073754a41bc180c" }, { "statement": "The governments of Russia and Ukraine both announce a signed general ceasefire agreement between 2026-09-06 and 2026-12-04.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "Official statements from both the Russian and Ukrainian governments announcing a signed general ceasefire, each carried by at least two of Reuters, AP, BBC, dated between 2026-09-06 and 2026-12-04.", "deadline": "2026-12-08", "citations": [ 65, 72, 97 ], "failure_condition": "No general ceasefire agreement is announced by both the Russian and Ukrainian governments between 2026-09-06 and 2026-12-04.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T03:23:51Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-47", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:52.158158+00:00", "seal_sha256": "60fc6a715d7ab3b98239df3ddb01385ef0f59cc86a66ed5aa61dc5470efb6d9d" }, { "statement": "USGS ComCat lists at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater with epicenter between 50N and 55N latitude and 175W and 164W longitude, with origin time between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-05 UTC.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 36, "resolution": "The public USGS ComCat catalog contains at least one M6.0 or greater event inside the stated latitude-longitude box with origin time between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-05 UTC.", "deadline": "2026-10-07", "citations": [ 30 ], "failure_condition": "USGS ComCat contains no M6.0 or greater event inside the stated box with origin time between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-05 UTC.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3617, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T03:23:51Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-48", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:52.158165+00:00", "seal_sha256": "aadbb25aed8e5ab8f735ece5a0187281bad503c0f11ed77005df4c63f176802a" }, { "statement": "An AfD politician is elected minister-president of a German state, or the AfD formally enters a state governing coalition, between 2026-09-06 and 2027-03-01.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "At least two of Reuters, AP, Deutsche Welle, BBC report an AfD minister-president election or formal AfD entry into a state governing coalition between 2026-09-06 and 2027-03-01.", "deadline": "2027-03-04", "citations": [ 113 ], "failure_condition": "No AfD minister-president is elected and the AfD enters no state governing coalition between 2026-09-06 and 2027-03-01.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T03:23:51Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-49", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:52.158172+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6bc1160c5f4b4ff8f9e12f9ed55c7b5db7b89c520f75aaccc713f8f507dba395" }, { "statement": "Russia and Ukraine jointly announce a ceasefire covering the entire line of contact, taking effect between 2026-09-06 and 2026-11-30.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "TRUE only if both the Kremlin and the Ukrainian presidency announce a front-wide ceasefire taking effect in the window. Partial, capital-specific, or energy-infrastructure-only pauses do not count.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 65, 72, 97 ], "failure_condition": "No front-wide ceasefire is announced by both governments with effect inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T03:23:52Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-50", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:53.197034+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0ed136559b89f9d4aa1e9bdb6bb1b98100aaedf1ed0e54ffae7770604421e4cf" }, { "statement": "Yemeni government or Saudi-led coalition forces announce the capture of a named district in Houthi-held Hodeidah, al-Jawf, or Saada governorate, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-19.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "TRUE if a government or coalition claim of capturing a named district in those three governorates in the window is corroborated by Houthi-aligned media or by Reuters, AFP, or AP.", "deadline": "2026-10-22", "citations": [ 75, 81 ], "failure_condition": "No named district in those three governorates changes hands by announced capture during the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T03:23:52Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-51", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:53.197056+00:00", "seal_sha256": "023d1ee38e7c2dd400b499f960b70ace5672255c116fa1aaac798561bca0ae2a" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog carries an entry for CVE-2026-19490, the Citrix NetScaler authentication bypass, added between 2026-09-06 and 2026-11-20.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed contains CVE-2026-19490 with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-06 and 2026-11-20 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-24", "citations": [ 20 ], "failure_condition": "CVE-2026-19490 is absent from the KEV catalog, or carries a dateAdded outside that range.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T03:23:52Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-52", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:53.197068+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4879510478a97fb2dc553980e8211a1fabe8007bdbad1a2057cae0d7ccdac9d5" }, { "statement": "The Plymouth County District Attorney publicly announces that Massachusetts will retry Lindsay Clancy, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-11.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 36, "resolution": "TRUE if that office states in the window that it intends to retry Clancy, reported by at least two of AP, Reuters, Boston Globe, WCVB, WBZ.", "deadline": "2026-12-15", "citations": [ 9, 12 ], "failure_condition": "No retrial decision is announced in the window, or the case instead ends by dismissal or plea.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3574, "n": 249, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T03:23:52Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-53", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:53.197079+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fb563566a2d1ecef78f066a9bb088163a4c2af08ee034e6f4ef293a980e489cb" }, { "statement": "The USGS earthquake catalog records at least two events of magnitude 7.0 or greater worldwide between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-19.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 36, "resolution": "TRUE if a USGS ComCat query bounded by 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-19 returns two or more events of magnitude 7.0 or greater.", "deadline": "2026-10-23", "citations": [ 23, 30 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS catalog shows fewer than two magnitude 7.0 or greater events in the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3617, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T03:23:52Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-05_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-54", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-05_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T03:23:53.197088+00:00", "seal_sha256": "34635f661a65df03191c09d7533b3ef8d8444960d6875cc163bb20254d4f1cb9" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-29, a cyberattack exploiting an unpatched vulnerability in a critical infrastructure system is confirmed by CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value in that window.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-29 for a vulnerability exploited in a critical infrastructure system.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 15, 16 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog does not carry a date-added value between 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-29 for a vulnerability exploited in a critical infrastructure system.", "id": "KKR-20260906-55", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T15:19:38.696412+00:00", "seal_sha256": "089ef16d8c8af0d5f2907e6241aee92e9cc061338e19ea69f5f190156b820c71" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-30, a volcanic eruption in Indonesia causes flight cancellations at Jakarta International Airport, confirmed by at least two independent sources (one from BBC, one from Guardian).", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 35, "resolution": "The GDACS Alerts system carries a report with eventtype=ER between 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-30 for a volcanic eruption in Indonesia causing flight cancellations at Jakarta International Airport, confirmed by at least two independent sources (one from BBC, one from Guardian).", "deadline": "2026-10-07", "citations": [ 20, 26 ], "failure_condition": "No GDACS report with eventtype=ER between 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-30 confirms a volcanic eruption in Indonesia causing flight cancellations at Jakarta International Airport, confirmed by at least two independent sources (one from BBC, one from Guardian).", "id": "KKR-20260906-56", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T15:19:38.696437+00:00", "seal_sha256": "dae481232e81452f3b4da027b0eb43c061e1a602c6ff7f1ddeaad0040e6a019f" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-25 and 2026-10-02, a new political development in the U.S. involves a public statement by Jared Kushner or Steve Witkoff on Ukraine peace talks, confirmed by at least two independent sources (one from Guardian, one from BBC).", "domain": "political", "probability": 40, "resolution": "A public statement by Jared Kushner or Steve Witkoff on Ukraine peace talks is confirmed by at least two independent sources (one from Guardian, one from BBC) between 2026-09-25 and 2026-10-02.", "deadline": "2026-10-09", "citations": [ 27, 83 ], "failure_condition": "No public statement by Jared Kushner or Steve Witkoff on Ukraine peace talks is confirmed by at least two independent sources (one from Guardian, one from BBC) between 2026-09-25 and 2026-10-02.", "id": "KKR-20260906-57", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T15:19:38.696450+00:00", "seal_sha256": "bf4172981991cf1f9747be62f4ccfc7032e93e163417013db28fdebf90dab747" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-26 and 2026-10-03, a new earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or higher is recorded in the Solomon Islands, confirmed by USGS Significant Quakes.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The USGS Significant Quakes system carries a report with magnitude ≥5.5 and location in the Solomon Islands between 2026-09-26 and 2026-10-03.", "deadline": "2026-10-10", "citations": [ 31 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS Significant Quakes system does not carry a report with magnitude ≥5.5 and location in the Solomon Islands between 2026-09-26 and 2026-10-03.", "id": "KKR-20260906-58", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T15:19:38.696462+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fc75a37dfceb7e071ab8a633b22cb6957a2743ee6380ea486b6eb268cdba5c06" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-27 and 2026-10-04, a new phishing campaign using invisible Unicode characters is reported by BleepingComputer and confirmed by The Hacker News.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 28, "resolution": "BleepingComputer reports a new phishing campaign using invisible Unicode characters between 2026-09-27 and 2026-10-04, and The Hacker News confirms it within 48 hours.", "deadline": "2026-10-11", "citations": [ 12 ], "failure_condition": "BleepingComputer does not report a new phishing campaign using invisible Unicode characters between 2026-09-27 and 2026-10-04, or The Hacker News does not confirm it within 48 hours.", "id": "KKR-20260906-59", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T15:19:38.696473+00:00", "seal_sha256": "47fbe750f00e9e241f0a5d50b0b26365e49fe0d5a29490a29258492134772eca" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-05, a new political scandal involving a U.S. government official is reported by Politico and confirmed by Guardian World.", "domain": "political", "probability": 32, "resolution": "A new political scandal involving a U.S. government official is reported by Politico and confirmed by Guardian World between 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-05.", "deadline": "2026-10-12", "citations": [ 91 ], "failure_condition": "No new political scandal involving a U.S. government official is reported by Politico and confirmed by Guardian World between 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-05.", "id": "KKR-20260906-60", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T15:19:38.696482+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4a5600dae956ce110845e8444e3ef472062eb8d5a86869853c61a851b643cbcc" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-06, a new wildfire in Brazil is reported by GDACS Alerts with eventtype=WF and confirmed by at least two independent sources (one from BBC, one from Guardian).", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 35, "resolution": "The GDACS Alerts system carries a report with eventtype=WF for a new wildfire in Brazil between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-06, confirmed by at least two independent sources (one from BBC, one from Guardian).", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 24 ], "failure_condition": "The GDACS Alerts system does not carry a report with eventtype=WF for a new wildfire in Brazil between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-06, or it is not confirmed by at least two independent sources (one from BBC, one from Guardian).", "id": "KKR-20260906-61", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T15:19:38.696490+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f1be6f237c36c23718e23e939035adacdd0329487464d54a6267968e44e02b70" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-30 and 2026-10-07, a new cyberattack on a government system is confirmed by CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value in that window.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 20, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-09-30 and 2026-10-07 for a vulnerability exploited in a government system.", "deadline": "2026-10-14", "citations": [ 15, 16 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog does not carry a date-added value between 2026-09-30 and 2026-10-07 for a vulnerability exploited in a government system.", "id": "KKR-20260906-62", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T15:19:38.696500+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a4b5febf2df3aff561507d6ed8bdf6fd403785ab7235772ea7c3c59efdcbfbb8" }, { "statement": "On 2026-09-22, the CISA KEV catalog will include at least one new entry for a vulnerability exploited in the wild, with a date-added value between 2026-09-17 and 2026-09-21.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-09-17 and 2026-09-21 for at least one new entry.", "deadline": "2026-09-24", "citations": [ 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog contains no new entries with a date-added value in the specified window.", "id": "KKR-20260906-63", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-06_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T15:23:00.748155+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4ccbd4b2e393718c4d6d25bc77ef2dbec83e11292f9e83ed37e8ae0e32128260" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a drone strike will be confirmed by at least two hostile sides in the Kyiv theater, with weapons reported as drone and casualties stated in at least one corroborating report.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 25, "resolution": "At least two hostile sides (RU, UA, AXIS, WEST) report a drone strike in Kyiv between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, with weapons reported as drone and casualties stated in at least one corroborating report.", "deadline": "2026-09-26", "citations": [ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103 ], "failure_condition": "No drone strike is confirmed by two hostile sides in Kyiv between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, or no casualties are stated in corroborating reports.", "id": "KKR-20260906-64", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-06_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T15:23:00.748177+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b4ea3c713cc322fe5eb235b5fe21b1c34d3502db413f8376f9c17bbe61637204" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-25, a volcanic eruption will cause flight cancellations at Jakarta International Airport, with at least 100,000 passengers stranded, as confirmed by two independent sources.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 35, "resolution": "Between 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-25, a volcanic eruption causes flight cancellations at Jakarta International Airport, with at least 100,000 passengers stranded, as confirmed by two independent sources.", "deadline": "2026-09-27", "citations": [ 20, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103 ], "failure_condition": "No volcanic eruption causes flight cancellations at Jakarta International Airport with at least 100,000 passengers stranded between 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-25, or no two independent sources confirm it.", "id": "KKR-20260906-65", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-06_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T15:23:00.748189+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1980c62104a3cb43f54a9eeedf65eb65093f93ef596e5693b49250447b2dbbaf" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-25, Iran will issue a public statement via a hostile side (AXIS or WEST) claiming a 'more painful' response to U.S. attacks, with the statement confirmed by two independent sources.", "domain": "political", "probability": 30, "resolution": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-25, Iran issues a public statement via a hostile side (AXIS or WEST) claiming a 'more painful' response to U.S. attacks, confirmed by two independent sources.", "deadline": "2026-09-27", "citations": [ 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103 ], "failure_condition": "No public statement by Iran claiming a 'more painful' response to U.S. attacks is confirmed by two independent sources between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-25.", "id": "KKR-20260906-66", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-06_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T15:23:00.748201+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8575fbd45ef42342fd27dc40a7e306e3486f96aacbd553e23c359156fdae9524" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-25, a cyberattack exploiting a zero-day vulnerability in Magento or Adobe Commerce will be confirmed by two independent sources, with the attack resulting in data exfiltration.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 35, "resolution": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-25, a cyberattack exploiting a zero-day vulnerability in Magento or Adobe Commerce is confirmed by two independent sources, with the attack resulting in data exfiltration.", "deadline": "2026-09-27", "citations": [ 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103 ], "failure_condition": "No cyberattack exploiting a zero-day vulnerability in Magento or Adobe Commerce is confirmed by two independent sources between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-25, or no data exfiltration is confirmed.", "id": "KKR-20260906-67", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-06_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T15:23:00.748210+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3292337017dd3b8a146c5f354884fc28a88b228262cb0f5f3900cc3f9b3d6099" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-13 and 2026-10-13, CENTCOM, the U.S. Department of Defense, or the Israeli Defense Forces will confirm at least one coalition service member killed or wounded in action from Iranian or IRGC-aligned action in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, or wider Persian Gulf theater.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if CENTCOM, DoD, or IDF confirms, with wire-service corroboration (Reuters, AP, or AFP), a coalition KIA or WIA from Iranian or IRGC-aligned action in the Hormuz theater between 2026-09-13 and 2026-10-13. FALSE otherwise by 2026-10-15.", "deadline": "2026-10-15", "citations": [ 42, 75 ], "failure_condition": "No coalition killed-in-action or wounded-in-action casualty from Iranian or IRGC-aligned action in the Hormuz theater is confirmed and wire-corroborated before the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-68", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:43.756955+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0a9947f739d4a6c02d763c092bcf08721205633dcd5cbff285ec15e1c948bb83" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-13 and 2026-11-13, the governments of Ukraine and Russia will both publicly confirm a mutual ceasefire or comprehensive halt to hostilities in the Russia-Ukraine war, following the Witkoff-Kushner shuttle diplomacy in Kyiv.", "domain": "political", "probability": 16, "resolution": "TRUE if both Ukraine's government and Russia's government confirm, with independent wire corroboration, a mutual ceasefire or halt to hostilities between 2026-09-13 and 2026-11-13. FALSE otherwise by 2026-11-15.", "deadline": "2026-11-15", "citations": [ 64, 84, 92 ], "failure_condition": "Neither government issues, or only one issues without matching confirmation from the other, a statement confirming a mutual ceasefire before the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-69", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:43.756976+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f6a2b4c2032b8b4f7adaa57995bad33d3b638b6908d1fd57d67575ea0e7ab1f9" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-13 and 2026-11-13, the UK Electoral Commission will confirm it has opened a formal investigation into Reform UK over the overseas donations reporting Nigel Farage acknowledged looked damaging on 2026-09-06.", "domain": "political", "probability": 28, "resolution": "TRUE if the Electoral Commission confirms, corroborated by a UK national outlet, an open formal investigation into Reform UK's donation reporting between 2026-09-13 and 2026-11-13. FALSE otherwise by 2026-11-15.", "deadline": "2026-11-15", "citations": [ 86, 89 ], "failure_condition": "The Electoral Commission does not confirm an open formal investigation into Reform UK's donation reporting before the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-70", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:43.756986+00:00", "seal_sha256": "cc7ca48c5acaa273979af5029312fae52808d046b755bc92a05ce5eef5d7fb0d" }, { "statement": "On 2026-09-16, the Federal Open Market Committee will raise its federal funds target range above the current 3.50 to 3.75 percent range. Reference: 3.50-3.75 percent target range in effect on the packet date, 2026-09-06.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 60, "resolution": "TRUE if the FOMC statement released 2026-09-16 sets a new target range with a lower bound above 3.50 percent, i.e. any hike. FALSE if the range is held at 3.50-3.75 percent or cut.", "deadline": "2026-09-16", "citations": [ 47 ], "failure_condition": "The FOMC statement released 2026-09-16 holds the target range at 3.50-3.75 percent or lowers it, rather than raising it.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-71", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:43.756994+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1e36ae3788c03cb7ad38510504fae3791dd63a27e4f1137d399665f04706ab17" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-13 and 2026-11-01, Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey will report a weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 7.25 percent or higher on at least one release. Reference: approximately 7.00 percent as reported 2026-09-05.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 32, "resolution": "TRUE if any Freddie Mac PMMS release between 2026-09-13 and 2026-11-01 reports the 30-year fixed average at or above 7.25 percent. FALSE if every release in the window is below 7.25 percent.", "deadline": "2026-11-02", "citations": [ 51, 47 ], "failure_condition": "No Freddie Mac PMMS release between 2026-09-13 and 2026-11-01 reports a 30-year fixed average of 7.25 percent or higher.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-72", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:43.757002+00:00", "seal_sha256": "bee5a248df47d3f8aebbdc3a584be9860c6aa33d21cedbdd146a84c8e5f4c841" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-13 and 2026-10-27, the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog will add an entry for Adobe Commerce or Magento Open Source tied to the zero-day exploitation reported on 2026-09-05.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 45, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog lists an Adobe Commerce or Magento Open Source entry with dateAdded between 2026-09-13 and 2026-10-27. FALSE if no such entry appears by then.", "deadline": "2026-10-27", "citations": [ 15 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog contains no Adobe Commerce or Magento Open Source entry with a dateAdded in the stated window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-73", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:43.757010+00:00", "seal_sha256": "45d3e43f2f5a2b66f754b556c5a24c0481225accfe38cea703b9d002df3dc318" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-13 and 2026-10-13, a further eruption of Mount Anak Krakatau will trigger a new suspension of flight operations at Soekarno-Hatta International Airport near Jakarta, following the multi-airport disruption on 2026-09-06.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if Angkasa Pura, Indonesia's transport ministry, or a NOTAM confirms a new Anak Krakatau ash suspension at Soekarno-Hatta, corroborated by a wire service, between 2026-09-13 and 2026-10-13. FALSE otherwise by 2026-10-15.", "deadline": "2026-10-15", "citations": [ 20, 26 ], "failure_condition": "No further Anak Krakatau-triggered suspension of flight operations at Soekarno-Hatta is confirmed and wire-corroborated before the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-74", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:43.757017+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c91799429a1770243c8ed629169f7f4002c59ca77541ccbe6603915719c593ba" }, { "statement": "At the scheduled FOMC meeting concluding 2026-09-16, the Committee raises the federal funds target range above the range in effect at packet seal. Reference: target range 3.50 to 3.75 percent on 2026-09-06 (FRED series DFEDTARU upper limit 3.75).", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 30, "resolution": "True if the FOMC statement dated 2026-09-16 announces a target range whose upper limit exceeds 3.75 percent, reflected in FRED DFEDTARU for 2026-09-17; false if the range is held or lowered.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 47 ], "failure_condition": "The 2026-09-16 FOMC statement leaves the federal funds target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent or lowers it.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-75", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:45.045044+00:00", "seal_sha256": "29dfbced63cf4dda93f6af2d812ece1ae691110863233e8f75b32d2288ca3a81" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-30 inclusive, UKMTO publishes at least one advisory reporting an attack on, boarding of, or seizure of a merchant vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, or Persian Gulf.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 55, "resolution": "True if the UKMTO advisories archive contains at least one advisory dated 2026-09-07 through 2026-09-30 describing an attack, boarding, or seizure of a merchant vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, or Persian Gulf.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 42, 75 ], "failure_condition": "No attack, boarding, or seizure of a merchant vessel occurs in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, or Persian Gulf between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-30, as adjudicated by the UKMTO advisories archive.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-76", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:45.045065+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a7b9ac2ca819b8f14c96e3611416eef947685cd46d5af6f2257da45b2c4d5a05" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-31 inclusive, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin hold an in-person meeting, confirmed by both the White House and the Kremlin.", "domain": "political", "probability": 15, "resolution": "True if both whitehouse.gov and kremlin.ru publish confirmation that Trump and Putin met in person on a date between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-31 inclusive; video or telephone contact does not count.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 27, 64, 92 ], "failure_condition": "No in-person meeting between Trump and Putin takes place between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-31, or any claimed meeting lacks confirmation from either the White House or the Kremlin.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-77", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:45.045076+00:00", "seal_sha256": "daf02e601d140697c28757d40e38d9c3b4b2b9c20a060ad304ff834ea6fb6a58" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-20 inclusive, Victoria Police announce that a person has been arrested and charged over the alleged axe attack in Victoria, Australia, reported by the Guardian on 2026-09-06, that left three people with life-threatening injuries.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 75, "resolution": "True if a Victoria Police media release, or two of ABC News, The Age, and Guardian Australia, report a person arrested and charged over that attack, with the charge laid between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-20 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 93 ], "failure_condition": "No person is charged over the attack by the end of 2026-09-20, including if the suspect is located dead or remains at large.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-78", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:45.045084+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0a649ffc461256940f139cf801525c160cfe3bddd0613d44322579db130eadcb" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-02 inclusive, CISA adds to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog at least one CVE whose product is Adobe Commerce or Magento Open Source, with a dateAdded value in that range.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 45, "resolution": "True if the CISA KEV JSON feed contains an entry with vendorProject Adobe or Magento, product Commerce, Adobe Commerce, or Magento, and dateAdded between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-02 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 15 ], "failure_condition": "No CISA KEV entry for an Adobe Commerce or Magento vulnerability carries a dateAdded between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-02.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-79", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:45.045095+00:00", "seal_sha256": "01d264d691c96f2d136574d46c2153a82d4c1c73e68a41861db315c82392715a" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-30 inclusive, CISA adds to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog at least one CVE whose product is VMware Workstation or VMware Fusion (vendor VMware or Broadcom), with a dateAdded value in that range.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 12, "resolution": "True if the CISA KEV JSON feed contains an entry whose product field names Workstation or Fusion under vendorProject VMware or Broadcom, with dateAdded between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 17 ], "failure_condition": "No CISA KEV entry naming VMware Workstation or Fusion carries a dateAdded between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-30.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-80", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:45.045102+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8a7d0cff7418a7aeb8dfe02c9e6bb6b3e394686f6fa9395d17bd2ba90bd6e190" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-04 inclusive, the USGS earthquake catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or greater with epicenter within 300 km of the 2026 M6.3 event 84 km SSW of Nikolski, Alaska (USGS event id us7000tdvt).", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 8, "resolution": "True if a USGS ComCat search returns at least one event of magnitude 6.5 or greater with origin time between 2026-09-07 00:00 UTC and 2026-10-04 23:59 UTC located within 300 km of USGS event us7000tdvt.", "deadline": "2026-10-07", "citations": [ 23 ], "failure_condition": "No earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or greater occurs within 300 km of USGS event us7000tdvt between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-04, as adjudicated by the USGS catalog.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-81", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:45.045108+00:00", "seal_sha256": "90a17708c0a7c47cb8c954bf6278bd235cd1fbf3574fc3078a27eb0cc075725f" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry for the Adobe Commerce or Magento vulnerability disclosed 2026-09-05, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-16.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 60, "resolution": "The public CISA KEV JSON feed contains an entry naming Adobe Commerce or Magento with dateAdded between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-16 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-20", "citations": [ 15 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry naming Adobe Commerce or Magento carries a dateAdded value inside the 2026-09-07 to 2026-10-16 window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-82", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:46.000289+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c3e5f000c3380e30e7fcff247dd3a76c3a1341415765d4fa4b08d6327efab173" }, { "statement": "The FOMC statement issued 2026-09-16 announces an increase in the federal funds target range. Reference: range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent in effect on the packet date.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 35, "resolution": "The Federal Reserve policy statement dated 2026-09-16 states the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 47 ], "failure_condition": "The 2026-09-16 statement maintains or lowers the target range, or no scheduled decision raising it is issued that day.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-83", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:46.000309+00:00", "seal_sha256": "dcc782e3f0955bcdbf56c4e48ad95a45c5f3848e41e4c70a88cf7b3efc3f9e28" }, { "statement": "The LBMA Gold Price PM prints at or above 5000.00 USD per troy ounce on at least one business day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-31. Reference: 4476.60 on the packet date.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The published LBMA Gold Price PM benchmark is at or above 5000.00 USD per troy ounce on any business day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-31 inclusive.", "deadline": "2027-01-05", "citations": [ 37 ], "failure_condition": "No LBMA Gold Price PM benchmark inside the window reaches 5000.00 USD.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-84", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:46.000321+00:00", "seal_sha256": "31ea1b8e05c4352fd91f90e74361cb3a1b8d83afb02cce55e40806ce51a9894a" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-07 at least one commercial vessel in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, or Gulf of Oman is attacked, struck, or seized in an incident attributed to US or Iranian forces.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 80, "resolution": "A CENTCOM release, or reports from at least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, identify a specific vessel attacked or seized in the named waters within the window, attributed to US or Iranian forces.", "deadline": "2026-10-09", "citations": [ 42, 75 ], "failure_condition": "No incident meeting the vessel, location, attribution, and window criteria occurs during the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-85", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:46.000330+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6ea65a32266127618373a161bb3de2bdce7b79cfce905632b4ed1d01e80ab809" }, { "statement": "The USGS earthquake catalog records at least one magnitude 6.0 or greater event within 300 km of the 2026-09-06 M6.3 Nikolski, Alaska epicenter between 2026-09-07 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 35, "resolution": "A USGS catalog query returns at least one M 6.0 or greater event with origin time in the window and epicenter within 300 km of the referenced M6.3 event.", "deadline": "2027-01-05", "citations": [ 23 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS catalog contains no M 6.0 or greater event meeting the distance and window criteria.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-86", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:46.000338+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fa1c175fb7898c7f557f2f9f0218c20adc63d9192528904a230d8c2a1b261854" }, { "statement": "The official final result certified by the Landeswahlleiter of Saxony-Anhalt for the 2026-09-06 state election, certified between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-30, allocates AfD at least 42 of the 83 Landtag seats.", "domain": "political", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the amtliches Endergebnis published by the Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-30 shows AfD holding 42 or more of 83 seats. Reference: 41 of 83 in the election-night projection.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 90 ], "failure_condition": "The certified final seat allocation gives AfD 41 or fewer of the 83 seats, leaving it short of an absolute majority.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-87", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:46.940153+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7c154bd15b75609528d6fa86dea51d614e7217909d32002be33217f371d785d7" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry naming Adobe Commerce or Magento, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-23.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 52, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed contains a vulnerability whose vendorProject is Adobe and whose product string contains Commerce or Magento, with dateAdded falling between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-23 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-27", "citations": [ 15 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry for an Adobe Commerce or Magento product carries a dateAdded inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-88", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:46.940174+00:00", "seal_sha256": "402b615b21d1db5977ca28cd6584f80793943242fd03c4bdd29351eeea4fad8b" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog adds an entry naming VMware Workstation or VMware Fusion with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-07 and 2026-11-20.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 18, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed contains a vulnerability whose product string contains Workstation or Fusion under a vendorProject of Broadcom or VMware, with dateAdded between 2026-09-07 and 2026-11-20 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-24", "citations": [ 17 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry for VMware Workstation or Fusion carries a dateAdded inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-89", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:46.940183+00:00", "seal_sha256": "76bcfbfbf7e141aef65ebc6e4d30b0681051781d729eb48d214a7058ea8f9a37" }, { "statement": "Russia and Ukraine jointly announce a signed general ceasefire or armistice covering the entire line of contact, agreed between 2026-09-07 and 2026-12-11.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 12, "resolution": "TRUE if the Kremlin and the Ukrainian presidential office each confirm a signed general ceasefire covering the whole front, agreed in the window, and Reuters and AP both report the signing.", "deadline": "2026-12-16", "citations": [ 83, 92, 64 ], "failure_condition": "No general ceasefire covering the entire line of contact is signed and confirmed by both governments within the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-90", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:46.940192+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e774c58ed666eb279fe50a1fa6138f5dcd5230da03d7e915269e1eb370f5cd38" }, { "statement": "US and Iranian forces exchange at least one further direct kinetic strike on a vessel or maritime target in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Strait of Hormuz, occurring between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-16.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 60, "resolution": "TRUE if a strike in that window is reported by at least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, and BBC, and is acknowledged by either US Central Command or Iranian state media.", "deadline": "2026-10-21", "citations": [ 42, 75 ], "failure_condition": "No US or Iranian strike on a maritime target in those waters occurs inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-91", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:46.940199+00:00", "seal_sha256": "942b0bdfe209cf75373f04522ebe6b5c11e1f1c7b1eedf97132a0fa87c4b9b96" }, { "statement": "The USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one worldwide event of magnitude 7.0 or greater with an origin time between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-11.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 72, "resolution": "TRUE if a query of the USGS FDSN event service for magnitude 7.0 and above, origin time between 2026-09-07T00:00Z and 2026-10-11T23:59Z, returns one or more events.", "deadline": "2026-10-16", "citations": [ 19, 23, 31 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS catalog returns zero events of magnitude 7.0 or greater for that origin-time range.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-92", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:46.940206+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4978d8b8f9108597d38c52a5f23add11839254013996685d76495a5ec262e16e" }, { "statement": "Victoria Police announce the arrest, charging, or confirmed death of the man sought over the alleged axe attack in Victoria, occurring between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-27.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 80, "resolution": "TRUE if a Victoria Police media release or court listing, reported by two of ABC News, The Age, and Guardian Australia, records the suspect arrested, charged, or confirmed deceased within the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-01", "citations": [ 93 ], "failure_condition": "The suspect remains at large and uncharged at the close of 2026-09-27.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-93", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:46.940213+00:00", "seal_sha256": "87f823b6e5c60a9fe0442259d4c7f6df18fde35673c5c5e26e7b52a28107bb57" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-13 and 2026-10-13, CENTCOM, the U.S. Department of Defense, or the Israeli Defense Forces will confirm at least one coalition service member killed or wounded in action from Iranian or IRGC-aligned action in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, or wider Persian Gulf theater.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "TRUE if CENTCOM, DoD, or IDF confirms, with wire-service corroboration (Reuters, AP, or AFP), a coalition KIA or WIA from Iranian or IRGC-aligned action in the Hormuz theater between 2026-09-13 and 2026-10-13. FALSE otherwise by 2026-10-15.", "deadline": "2026-10-15", "citations": [ 42, 75 ], "failure_condition": "No coalition killed-in-action or wounded-in-action casualty from Iranian or IRGC-aligned action in the Hormuz theater is confirmed and wire-corroborated before the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T22:47:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-94", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:47.995729+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1ada33e61f5bded983178fde2ffb373ea7f7aeabdb25390332787b3875157ab9" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-13 and 2026-11-13, the governments of Ukraine and Russia will both publicly confirm a mutual ceasefire or comprehensive halt to hostilities in the Russia-Ukraine war, following the Witkoff-Kushner shuttle diplomacy in Kyiv.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if both Ukraine's government and Russia's government confirm, with independent wire corroboration, a mutual ceasefire or halt to hostilities between 2026-09-13 and 2026-11-13. FALSE otherwise by 2026-11-15.", "deadline": "2026-11-15", "citations": [ 64, 84, 92 ], "failure_condition": "Neither government issues, or only one issues without matching confirmation from the other, a statement confirming a mutual ceasefire before the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T22:47:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-95", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:47.995750+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0831013b8359229be2bcca3e91d70b22d4373369fb1935a7678de4c211a32c01" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-13 and 2026-11-13, the UK Electoral Commission will confirm it has opened a formal investigation into Reform UK over the overseas donations reporting Nigel Farage acknowledged looked damaging on 2026-09-06.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if the Electoral Commission confirms, corroborated by a UK national outlet, an open formal investigation into Reform UK's donation reporting between 2026-09-13 and 2026-11-13. FALSE otherwise by 2026-11-15.", "deadline": "2026-11-15", "citations": [ 86, 89 ], "failure_condition": "The Electoral Commission does not confirm an open formal investigation into Reform UK's donation reporting before the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T22:47:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-96", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:47.995762+00:00", "seal_sha256": "50a0d7993a715a361356b5d5256d033f36e6bb7f80bd7285521d65b752f20567" }, { "statement": "On 2026-09-16, the Federal Open Market Committee will raise its federal funds target range above the current 3.50 to 3.75 percent range. Reference: 3.50-3.75 percent target range in effect on the packet date, 2026-09-06.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 21, "resolution": "TRUE if the FOMC statement released 2026-09-16 sets a new target range with a lower bound above 3.50 percent, i.e. any hike. FALSE if the range is held at 3.50-3.75 percent or cut.", "deadline": "2026-09-16", "citations": [ 47 ], "failure_condition": "The FOMC statement released 2026-09-16 holds the target range at 3.50-3.75 percent or lowers it, rather than raising it.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T22:47:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-97", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:47.995770+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7045085c9f90cdec3fe3b5e0c7b1a41fdb7165c72841f700131b7ee494660e0f" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-13 and 2026-11-01, Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey will report a weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 7.25 percent or higher on at least one release. Reference: approximately 7.00 percent as reported 2026-09-05.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 21, "resolution": "TRUE if any Freddie Mac PMMS release between 2026-09-13 and 2026-11-01 reports the 30-year fixed average at or above 7.25 percent. FALSE if every release in the window is below 7.25 percent.", "deadline": "2026-11-02", "citations": [ 51, 47 ], "failure_condition": "No Freddie Mac PMMS release between 2026-09-13 and 2026-11-01 reports a 30-year fixed average of 7.25 percent or higher.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T22:47:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-98", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:47.995778+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b0620805661bb7d4248fcb0cee7f539b4d4c688548d6a7dedee7959e661d0e29" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-13 and 2026-10-27, the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog will add an entry for Adobe Commerce or Magento Open Source tied to the zero-day exploitation reported on 2026-09-05.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog lists an Adobe Commerce or Magento Open Source entry with dateAdded between 2026-09-13 and 2026-10-27. FALSE if no such entry appears by then.", "deadline": "2026-10-27", "citations": [ 15 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog contains no Adobe Commerce or Magento Open Source entry with a dateAdded in the stated window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T22:47:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-99", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:47.995786+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1a41a823e6adb8628f5ff9d20f883fc54c88e6e4d68de12865a655549756d24f" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-13 and 2026-10-13, a further eruption of Mount Anak Krakatau will trigger a new suspension of flight operations at Soekarno-Hatta International Airport near Jakarta, following the multi-airport disruption on 2026-09-06.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 36, "resolution": "TRUE if Angkasa Pura, Indonesia's transport ministry, or a NOTAM confirms a new Anak Krakatau ash suspension at Soekarno-Hatta, corroborated by a wire service, between 2026-09-13 and 2026-10-13. FALSE otherwise by 2026-10-15.", "deadline": "2026-10-15", "citations": [ 20, 26 ], "failure_condition": "No further Anak Krakatau-triggered suspension of flight operations at Soekarno-Hatta is confirmed and wire-corroborated before the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3617, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T22:47:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-100", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:47.995793+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ed927d877355e57afcd2438b7d3f467b02b1ba66c118f440053257d0a4a3d8c9" }, { "statement": "At the scheduled FOMC meeting concluding 2026-09-16, the Committee raises the federal funds target range above the range in effect at packet seal. Reference: target range 3.50 to 3.75 percent on 2026-09-06 (FRED series DFEDTARU upper limit 3.75).", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 21, "resolution": "True if the FOMC statement dated 2026-09-16 announces a target range whose upper limit exceeds 3.75 percent, reflected in FRED DFEDTARU for 2026-09-17; false if the range is held or lowered.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 47 ], "failure_condition": "The 2026-09-16 FOMC statement leaves the federal funds target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent or lowers it.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T22:47:47Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-101", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:49.036872+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3783859be56edd13d5eda7a823dfd044c193d68e95adc6f6043a0ea02484abc0" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-30 inclusive, UKMTO publishes at least one advisory reporting an attack on, boarding of, or seizure of a merchant vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, or Persian Gulf.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "True if the UKMTO advisories archive contains at least one advisory dated 2026-09-07 through 2026-09-30 describing an attack, boarding, or seizure of a merchant vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, or Persian Gulf.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 42, 75 ], "failure_condition": "No attack, boarding, or seizure of a merchant vessel occurs in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, or Persian Gulf between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-30, as adjudicated by the UKMTO advisories archive.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T22:47:47Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-102", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:49.036891+00:00", "seal_sha256": "51069655db3db97fd420dfee23e105411ffc0dffd24e461d4460935862a9639b" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-31 inclusive, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin hold an in-person meeting, confirmed by both the White House and the Kremlin.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "True if both whitehouse.gov and kremlin.ru publish confirmation that Trump and Putin met in person on a date between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-31 inclusive; video or telephone contact does not count.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 27, 64, 92 ], "failure_condition": "No in-person meeting between Trump and Putin takes place between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-31, or any claimed meeting lacks confirmation from either the White House or the Kremlin.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T22:47:47Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-103", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:49.036902+00:00", "seal_sha256": "484f55f9def2fbe63a4cfb06e7c67649682a8ff2b4cf93efbc0dfdae68116d41" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-20 inclusive, Victoria Police announce that a person has been arrested and charged over the alleged axe attack in Victoria, Australia, reported by the Guardian on 2026-09-06, that left three people with life-threatening injuries.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 36, "resolution": "True if a Victoria Police media release, or two of ABC News, The Age, and Guardian Australia, report a person arrested and charged over that attack, with the charge laid between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-20 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-09-22", "citations": [ 93 ], "failure_condition": "No person is charged over the attack by the end of 2026-09-20, including if the suspect is located dead or remains at large.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3574, "n": 249, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T22:47:47Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-104", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:49.036910+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b4ebdd6ffca40570e9d0cb71ba7a2f2251664f4113567dc786de97ae1491dc28" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-02 inclusive, CISA adds to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog at least one CVE whose product is Adobe Commerce or Magento Open Source, with a dateAdded value in that range.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "True if the CISA KEV JSON feed contains an entry with vendorProject Adobe or Magento, product Commerce, Adobe Commerce, or Magento, and dateAdded between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-02 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 15 ], "failure_condition": "No CISA KEV entry for an Adobe Commerce or Magento vulnerability carries a dateAdded between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-02.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T22:47:47Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-105", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:49.036920+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d2b1edaebb1771dd4bd8fa50d9ff5680f6a69d89cb2653fb2246efa72bb18066" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-30 inclusive, CISA adds to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog at least one CVE whose product is VMware Workstation or VMware Fusion (vendor VMware or Broadcom), with a dateAdded value in that range.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "True if the CISA KEV JSON feed contains an entry whose product field names Workstation or Fusion under vendorProject VMware or Broadcom, with dateAdded between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-30 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 17 ], "failure_condition": "No CISA KEV entry naming VMware Workstation or Fusion carries a dateAdded between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-30.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T22:47:47Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-106", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:49.036927+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1af9fa52a909dd918fe16de60dd29f77be79378ecc4f43079a1f2a199fb7a7da" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-04 inclusive, the USGS earthquake catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or greater with epicenter within 300 km of the 2026 M6.3 event 84 km SSW of Nikolski, Alaska (USGS event id us7000tdvt).", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 36, "resolution": "True if a USGS ComCat search returns at least one event of magnitude 6.5 or greater with origin time between 2026-09-07 00:00 UTC and 2026-10-04 23:59 UTC located within 300 km of USGS event us7000tdvt.", "deadline": "2026-10-07", "citations": [ 23 ], "failure_condition": "No earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or greater occurs within 300 km of USGS event us7000tdvt between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-04, as adjudicated by the USGS catalog.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3617, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T22:47:47Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-107", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:49.036934+00:00", "seal_sha256": "bea297b3330f24d53688aef0c97e8bf23fcf421bc26fa1a2bbf2fff8bd540d73" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry for the Adobe Commerce or Magento vulnerability disclosed 2026-09-05, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-16.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The public CISA KEV JSON feed contains an entry naming Adobe Commerce or Magento with dateAdded between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-16 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-20", "citations": [ 15 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry naming Adobe Commerce or Magento carries a dateAdded value inside the 2026-09-07 to 2026-10-16 window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T22:47:49Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-108", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:50.096125+00:00", "seal_sha256": "099cca4efb87ef5555a5aa23a3849436892098cec162635b31ca724bdf41c66e" }, { "statement": "The FOMC statement issued 2026-09-16 announces an increase in the federal funds target range. Reference: range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent in effect on the packet date.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 21, "resolution": "The Federal Reserve policy statement dated 2026-09-16 states the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate.", "deadline": "2026-09-18", "citations": [ 47 ], "failure_condition": "The 2026-09-16 statement maintains or lowers the target range, or no scheduled decision raising it is issued that day.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T22:47:49Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-109", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:50.096145+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f96f4dfe69427317967f9c530ffc440081d24b4f89a3999f7b38cffc43c5beaa" }, { "statement": "The LBMA Gold Price PM prints at or above 5000.00 USD per troy ounce on at least one business day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-31. Reference: 4476.60 on the packet date.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 21, "resolution": "The published LBMA Gold Price PM benchmark is at or above 5000.00 USD per troy ounce on any business day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-31 inclusive.", "deadline": "2027-01-05", "citations": [ 37 ], "failure_condition": "No LBMA Gold Price PM benchmark inside the window reaches 5000.00 USD.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T22:47:49Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-110", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:50.096155+00:00", "seal_sha256": "81aea2cf1e369e00c1a6825bdb961236afd91c9541c2fc30a266cd98523ba711" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-07 at least one commercial vessel in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, or Gulf of Oman is attacked, struck, or seized in an incident attributed to US or Iranian forces.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "A CENTCOM release, or reports from at least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, identify a specific vessel attacked or seized in the named waters within the window, attributed to US or Iranian forces.", "deadline": "2026-10-09", "citations": [ 42, 75 ], "failure_condition": "No incident meeting the vessel, location, attribution, and window criteria occurs during the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T22:47:49Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-111", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:50.096164+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2a0cf2e130bca5a46b920a412f57318258e0ddf7f82b96eea2aa9e7a03b6b14b" }, { "statement": "The USGS earthquake catalog records at least one magnitude 6.0 or greater event within 300 km of the 2026-09-06 M6.3 Nikolski, Alaska epicenter between 2026-09-07 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 36, "resolution": "A USGS catalog query returns at least one M 6.0 or greater event with origin time in the window and epicenter within 300 km of the referenced M6.3 event.", "deadline": "2027-01-05", "citations": [ 23 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS catalog contains no M 6.0 or greater event meeting the distance and window criteria.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3617, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T22:47:49Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-112", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:50.096172+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e84302a2aaa29507103eeca63c315a8ed109e44fc8dc6d2f7d09a80e2e99c1ee" }, { "statement": "The official final result certified by the Landeswahlleiter of Saxony-Anhalt for the 2026-09-06 state election, certified between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-30, allocates AfD at least 42 of the 83 Landtag seats.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if the amtliches Endergebnis published by the Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-30 shows AfD holding 42 or more of 83 seats. Reference: 41 of 83 in the election-night projection.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 90 ], "failure_condition": "The certified final seat allocation gives AfD 41 or fewer of the 83 seats, leaving it short of an absolute majority.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T22:47:50Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-113", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:51.151529+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1374a135eca08200981874c7940a382b4b228ccdc9ec2103079e25f7fcfe0eda" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry naming Adobe Commerce or Magento, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-23.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed contains a vulnerability whose vendorProject is Adobe and whose product string contains Commerce or Magento, with dateAdded falling between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-23 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-27", "citations": [ 15 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry for an Adobe Commerce or Magento product carries a dateAdded inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T22:47:50Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-114", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:51.151552+00:00", "seal_sha256": "98530a32be7d7ec34bba3fb82a6e64e7b5580549cae15edc87fffba88bcf9e63" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog adds an entry naming VMware Workstation or VMware Fusion with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-07 and 2026-11-20.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed contains a vulnerability whose product string contains Workstation or Fusion under a vendorProject of Broadcom or VMware, with dateAdded between 2026-09-07 and 2026-11-20 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-24", "citations": [ 17 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry for VMware Workstation or Fusion carries a dateAdded inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T22:47:50Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-115", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:51.151563+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a21e3b280d217f3278d018f5af65be730d320a359a259b8b8613c51f3ce57705" }, { "statement": "Russia and Ukraine jointly announce a signed general ceasefire or armistice covering the entire line of contact, agreed between 2026-09-07 and 2026-12-11.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "TRUE if the Kremlin and the Ukrainian presidential office each confirm a signed general ceasefire covering the whole front, agreed in the window, and Reuters and AP both report the signing.", "deadline": "2026-12-16", "citations": [ 83, 92, 64 ], "failure_condition": "No general ceasefire covering the entire line of contact is signed and confirmed by both governments within the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T22:47:50Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-116", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:51.151571+00:00", "seal_sha256": "33d6297929cbbcfda90b446e96798349793ecf35bfceaa2a63a312a92a84d09c" }, { "statement": "US and Iranian forces exchange at least one further direct kinetic strike on a vessel or maritime target in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Strait of Hormuz, occurring between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-16.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "TRUE if a strike in that window is reported by at least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, and BBC, and is acknowledged by either US Central Command or Iranian state media.", "deadline": "2026-10-21", "citations": [ 42, 75 ], "failure_condition": "No US or Iranian strike on a maritime target in those waters occurs inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T22:47:50Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-117", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:51.151579+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d67e3579d20f90dcaa4aff31dce9e2144f263520570be6f2729921199ca07594" }, { "statement": "The USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one worldwide event of magnitude 7.0 or greater with an origin time between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-11.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 36, "resolution": "TRUE if a query of the USGS FDSN event service for magnitude 7.0 and above, origin time between 2026-09-07T00:00Z and 2026-10-11T23:59Z, returns one or more events.", "deadline": "2026-10-16", "citations": [ 19, 23, 31 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS catalog returns zero events of magnitude 7.0 or greater for that origin-time range.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3617, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T22:47:50Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-118", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:51.151587+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fbf5c34cc5546ddeeee355d8a86344782b53dcee6f27b3c6b07ae05060b79c2e" }, { "statement": "Victoria Police announce the arrest, charging, or confirmed death of the man sought over the alleged axe attack in Victoria, occurring between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-27.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 36, "resolution": "TRUE if a Victoria Police media release or court listing, reported by two of ABC News, The Age, and Guardian Australia, records the suspect arrested, charged, or confirmed deceased within the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-01", "citations": [ 93 ], "failure_condition": "The suspect remains at large and uncharged at the close of 2026-09-27.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3574, "n": 249, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-06T22:47:50Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-06_1517.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260906-119", "date_issued": "2026-09-06", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-06_1517.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-06T22:47:51.151598+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b8324d27c1eba050bd9b33be22e7b970818ae54c26829339d37febc5f4b345d1" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, the S&P 500 closes above 7,800 points on at least one trading day.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 45, "resolution": "The S&P 500 closes above 7,800 points on at least one trading day between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) or Bloomberg.", "deadline": "2026-09-28", "citations": [ 52, 53, 54 ], "failure_condition": "The S&P 500 never closes above 7,800 points during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260907-01", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T15:20:08.541017+00:00", "seal_sha256": "885c73b1f755058e9145b5a2272215bc324d99576da30dcab402d9262760d31c" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a new political party in Germany gains more than 10% of the vote in a regional election, as confirmed by official election results from the German Federal Returning Officer.", "domain": "political", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The German Federal Returning Officer publishes official election results showing a new political party receiving more than 10% of the vote in a regional election between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.", "deadline": "2026-10-01", "citations": [ 92, 93, 94, 95 ], "failure_condition": "No new party receives over 10% of the vote in any regional election during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260907-02", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T15:20:08.541041+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0a8b7aa4b706f89d9f8fad528626754c4d728e331c7d26333df056e19adb8169" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a new cyberattack targets a U.S. federal agency using a previously unpatched vulnerability, as confirmed by a CISA KEV entry and a government press release.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 20, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog carries a new entry for a previously unpatched vulnerability exploited in a cyberattack against a U.S. federal agency, with a date-added value between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, and a U.S. federal agency issues a public press release confirming the breach.", "deadline": "2026-09-28", "citations": [ 18, 19, 20, 21 ], "failure_condition": "No such KEV entry is added or no federal agency confirms a breach during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260907-03", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T15:20:08.541053+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2848d663c0528be019fdd594fb51ba255425bff4ef6d4736a72597d76391856d" }, { "statement": "On 2026-09-21, the CISA KEV catalog will carry a date-added value for a vulnerability with a CVSS score of 9.0 or higher, exploited in at least one confirmed incident between 2026-09-15 and 2026-09-21.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog will list at least one vulnerability with a CVSS score of 9.0 or higher and a date-added value between 2026-09-15 and 2026-09-21, and at least one independent source (e.g., BleepingComputer, The Hacker News) will report a confirmed exploitation event during that window.", "deadline": "2027-03-06", "citations": [ 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24 ], "failure_condition": "No vulnerability with CVSS 9.0 or higher is listed in the CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value between 2026-09-15 and 2026-09-21, or no independent source confirms exploitation during that window.", "id": "KKR-20260907-04", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-07_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T15:22:52.445273+00:00", "seal_sha256": "51d0c2d8a61794019a8ef7f8b186ec8d63b8cf5a826580e888d980e7b7bc5de7" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-18 and 2026-09-25, a drone strike originating from Russian-controlled territory will result in at least one confirmed casualty in Kyiv, as verified by at least two independent sources from hostile sides (UA, WEST).", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "At least one casualty (defined as death or serious injury requiring hospitalization) will be reported in Kyiv during the window, with at least two independent sources from hostile sides (UA, WEST) confirming the event and attributing it to a drone strike from Russian-controlled territory.", "deadline": "2027-03-06", "citations": [ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113, 114, 115, 116 ], "failure_condition": "No casualty is confirmed in Kyiv during the window, or no independent source from UA or WEST attributes the event to a drone strike from Russian-controlled territory.", "id": "KKR-20260907-05", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-07_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T15:22:52.445297+00:00", "seal_sha256": "795c5e2e2654fad2437203d5faa1ef8e229170249e123a419cbe42484577900d" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-16 and 2026-09-22, a major earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or higher will be recorded in the Pacific Ring of Fire, as confirmed by the USGS Significant Quakes database.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 20, "resolution": "The USGS Significant Quakes database will list a seismic event with magnitude 6.0 or higher and depth less than 100 km, occurring between 2026-09-16 and 2026-09-22, with a confirmed location in the Pacific Ring of Fire.", "deadline": "2027-03-06", "citations": [ 30, 37 ], "failure_condition": "No magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake is recorded in the Pacific Ring of Fire between 2026-09-16 and 2026-09-22.", "id": "KKR-20260907-06", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-07_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T15:22:52.445308+00:00", "seal_sha256": "bc75a135dc09e3689e2f4c843d05639367d584c2ad57f75f679b61c073d9f89c" }, { "statement": "On 2026-09-20, the German far-right AfD will win a majority in a federal parliamentary election, as confirmed by the official Federal Returning Officer report.", "domain": "political", "probability": 10, "resolution": "The official Federal Returning Officer report will list the AfD as the largest party in the German federal election held on 2026-09-20, with more than 30% of the vote.", "deadline": "2027-03-06", "citations": [ 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113, 114, 115, 116 ], "failure_condition": "The AfD does not win the largest share of votes in the German federal election on 2026-09-20.", "id": "KKR-20260907-07", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-07_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T15:22:52.445318+00:00", "seal_sha256": "01f3df0837b7a5810a2f2adeb02beceab777e449c67949174310775f5b05e438" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-17 and 2026-09-24, Iran will issue a public statement declaring a restricted zone in the Strait of Hormuz, as confirmed by at least two independent sources from hostile sides (AXIS, WEST).", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 35, "resolution": "At least two independent sources from hostile sides (AXIS, WEST) will report a public statement from Iran declaring a restricted zone in the Strait of Hormuz during the window.", "deadline": "2027-03-06", "citations": [ 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113, 114, 115, 116 ], "failure_condition": "No public statement from Iran declaring a restricted zone in the Strait of Hormuz is confirmed by at least two independent sources from hostile sides during the window.", "id": "KKR-20260907-08", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-07_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T15:22:52.445326+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4758d1c0d3f7d8abba7d0f043558ffd6970dd5c12295668a5139e2d2bbcd989b" }, { "statement": "On 2026-09-22, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will exceed 4.8% for the first time since 2023, as reported by the U.S. Department of the Treasury.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The U.S. Department of the Treasury will report a 10-year yield above 4.8% on 2026-09-22, based on the daily auction results.", "deadline": "2027-03-06", "citations": [ 64 ], "failure_condition": "The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is below 4.8% on 2026-09-22.", "id": "KKR-20260907-09", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-07_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T15:22:52.445335+00:00", "seal_sha256": "59043e067e0e17193f776c249bae1a4fb7555bb13eda4c4cb69ef75aaf155925" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-19 and 2026-09-26, a wildfire will break out in the Amazon rainforest, resulting in at least 500,000 hectares burned, as confirmed by the GDACS Alerts system.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 18, "resolution": "The GDACS Alerts system will list a wildfire event in the Amazon rainforest with a burned area of at least 500,000 hectares, confirmed by at least two independent sources.", "deadline": "2027-03-06", "citations": [ 25, 27, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113, 114, 115, 116 ], "failure_condition": "No wildfire in the Amazon rainforest with at least 500,000 hectares burned is confirmed by GDACS and at least two independent sources during the window.", "id": "KKR-20260907-10", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-07_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T15:22:52.445343+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c897f1c1a9a196bab0d53442d5ab4b2c3a61ccaba6563f2109fe9a1b05ed86f2" }, { "statement": "On 2026-09-21, the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce a 50 basis point interest rate hike, as confirmed by the official FOMC press release.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 5, "resolution": "The Federal Reserve will issue a press release on 2026-09-21 stating that the FOMC has raised the federal funds rate by 50 basis points.", "deadline": "2027-03-06", "citations": [ 64 ], "failure_condition": "The Federal Reserve does not announce a 50 basis point rate hike on 2026-09-21.", "id": "KKR-20260907-11", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-07_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T15:22:52.445351+00:00", "seal_sha256": "124231c50e45512c333ab451049d356d668a92be72e2b9e48d6f96572fc81c30" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-15 and 2026-09-22, a cyberattack exploiting the N-able N-central flaw will result in a confirmed breach of a government agency's network, as verified by the CISA KEV catalog and a government press release.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 22, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog will list the N-able N-central flaw (CVE-2026-XXXX) with a date-added value between 2026-09-15 and 2026-09-22, and a government agency will issue a public statement confirming a breach due to this vulnerability.", "deadline": "2027-03-06", "citations": [ 21, 23 ], "failure_condition": "The N-able N-central flaw is not listed in the CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value in the window, or no government agency confirms a breach due to it.", "id": "KKR-20260907-12", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-07_1520.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T15:22:52.445359+00:00", "seal_sha256": "cf5b9b61e02610a338b02d7b70c85abd2656917e172680737a289f8ca60fb7e2" }, { "statement": "Following the AfD first-place finish in the 6 September 2026 Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election reported in the packet, the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag will elect an AfD-nominated Minister-President in a floor vote between 2026-09-14 and 2026-12-01.", "domain": "political", "probability": 12, "resolution": "TRUE if the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag confirms an AfD-nominated Minister-President by floor vote in the window, per official Landtag records and at least one of dpa, Reuters, or AP; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 93, 99, 100 ], "failure_condition": "The Saxony-Anhalt Landtag does not elect an AfD-nominated Minister-President within the window, whether because the seat stays vacant, a non-AfD candidate wins, or no vote is held by the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-13", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:25.175700+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b6930c0c951ee020a1f64fdb3be6f40bd167cd6dbce97d43f0f29d01e87eee85" }, { "statement": "Following the resignation of the senior AI policy adviser to the UK government over an Anthropic conflict of interest, reported 2026-09-07, the UK government will publicly name a permanent successor to that role between 2026-09-14 and 2026-11-13.", "domain": "political", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the UK government publicly names, via a GOV.UK release or a wire service report, PA Media or Reuters, a permanent successor to the role within the window; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-11-16", "citations": [ 94 ], "failure_condition": "The UK government has not publicly named a permanent successor to the vacated AI policy adviser role by the deadline, whether the post remains vacant or is filled only on an interim basis.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-14", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:25.175722+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d2253de2eafde9f3adbf6b7ab67739134748d9aaedf00e049395d1cb91207a61" }, { "statement": "Reference: the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.78 percent per the market snapshot in the packet dated 2026-09-07. The FRED DGS10 series will show a daily 10-year Treasury yield at or above 4.95 percent on at least one day between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-09.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 22, "resolution": "TRUE if the FRED DGS10 daily series records a value at or above 4.95 percent on any date in the window; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 64 ], "failure_condition": "The FRED DGS10 series never records a daily value at or above 4.95 percent on any date within the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-15", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:25.175736+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8756e81df8fd2f691bdfba1f3027b39461f44ab268163b33eff696939124410d" }, { "statement": "Following the report of a Telerik UI padding-oracle bug chained to unauthenticated remote code execution, the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog will add a Telerik UI entry between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-19.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog carries a dateAdded value for a Telerik UI CVE falling within the window; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-22", "citations": [ 17 ], "failure_condition": "No Telerik UI CVE is added to the CISA KEV catalog with a dateAdded value inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-16", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:25.175746+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6be8b9b39a96d8031cace813beaef61507026036976a823b98e00aa984b57489" }, { "statement": "Amid reports questioning whether Iran can enforce a restricted zone in the Strait of Hormuz, the government of Iran or the IRGC Navy will formally declare a named restricted or exclusion zone in the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-12.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 40, "resolution": "TRUE if Iranian state media, meaning IRNA, Tasnim, or Mehr, and at least one of Reuters, AP, or AFP both report a formally declared, named Hormuz restricted zone within the window; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-15", "citations": [ 80, 42 ], "failure_condition": "The government of Iran and the IRGC Navy do not formally declare a named restricted or exclusion zone in the Strait of Hormuz within the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-17", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:25.175755+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8646f35e59cd0bab759289842b92c2b0f2e60c0337935f49cfd7277762a2d98d" }, { "statement": "Following reports of Israel-Hezbollah clashes killing 11 and Israeli strikes on a southern Lebanese village killing 12, a formally announced ceasefire or truce covering Israel-Hezbollah hostilities in southern Lebanon will take effect between 2026-09-14 and 2026-11-13.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 18, "resolution": "TRUE if the government of Israel, the government of Lebanon, or Hezbollah announces a ceasefire or truce that takes effect in the window, corroborated by a Western wire service and a regional outlet; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-11-16", "citations": [ 72, 90 ], "failure_condition": "Hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon continue without a ceasefire or truce taking effect within the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-18", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:25.175764+00:00", "seal_sha256": "aa73578cb84e7c84b6c32416bdfd20f4aa718af32277734d0d5597c3a9b82255" }, { "statement": "Reference: the packet dated 2026-09-07 reports more than 1,300 confirmed dead in the Nepal flooding. The cumulative confirmed death toll reported by disaster authorities in Nepal will reach or exceed 1,500 between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-12.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the NDRRMA of Nepal, a Nepal government source, or a wire service, AP, Reuters, or AFP, reports a cumulative confirmed death toll at or above 1,500 within the window; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-15", "citations": [ 91, 26 ], "failure_condition": "The cumulative confirmed flood death toll in Nepal does not reach 1,500 within the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-19", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:25.175773+00:00", "seal_sha256": "395cdd31551a3516b0dd5cc4779388b5822c161b8922860f14eb25618ce41e7b" }, { "statement": "NYMEX WTI front-month crude settles at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on 2026-10-02. Reference: 91.48 on the packet date 2026-09-07.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 28, "resolution": "CME Group official settlement price of the front-month NYMEX WTI (CL) contract for trade date 2026-10-02 is at or above 100.00 USD. Reference: 91.48 on the packet date 2026-09-07. Any settlement below 100.00 resolves false.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 42, 50, 88 ], "failure_condition": "The front-month WTI settlement for trade date 2026-10-02 is below 100.00 USD.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-20", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:26.532629+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e97631adf5fe29fd5a8f8ccbe197493ecc2d0383139bf4a962f07bbb2d989ae7" }, { "statement": "The US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield closes at or above 5.00 percent on at least one business day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 4.78 percent on the packet date 2026-09-07.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 38, "resolution": "FRED series DGS10 (Treasury 10-year constant maturity) shows a daily value of 5.00 or higher for at least one date from 2026-09-08 through 2026-10-30 inclusive. Reference: 4.78 on 2026-09-07. No such value resolves false.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 64, 62 ], "failure_condition": "The DGS10 daily value never reaches 5.00 percent on any business day from 2026-09-08 through 2026-10-30.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-21", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:26.532652+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9cd31f131397aeec50a943870ca2a3ee58d0a6426847e7d64fc8d92977f58c55" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog adds at least one N-able N-central vulnerability (CVE-2026-86218, CVE-2026-86207, or CVE-2026-86206) with a dateAdded between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-25.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 65, "resolution": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities JSON feed lists CVE-2026-86218, CVE-2026-86207, or CVE-2026-86206 with a dateAdded value from 2026-09-08 through 2026-09-25 inclusive. No entry, or entries dated outside that range only, resolves false.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 21, 23 ], "failure_condition": "None of CVE-2026-86218, CVE-2026-86207, or CVE-2026-86206 carries a KEV dateAdded within 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-25.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-22", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:26.532663+00:00", "seal_sha256": "19414cfa00b00c65b0d77207a0ef862ee546eeb09e610dc45b62b6e441daaa62" }, { "statement": "Ulrich Siegmund (AfD) is elected Ministerpraesident of Saxony-Anhalt by the Landtag in a ballot held between 2026-09-08 and 2027-01-13.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "The Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt official plenary record or press release shows Ulrich Siegmund elected Ministerpraesident in any ballot round dated 2026-09-08 through 2027-01-13. Election of anyone else, or no completed election in that window, resolves false.", "deadline": "2027-01-15", "citations": [ 83, 93, 99, 100 ], "failure_condition": "No Landtag ballot within the window elects Siegmund; either another person is elected or no election is completed by 2027-01-13.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-23", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:26.532673+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2918026c6063169fce620e2bf342e976a9d9d1ee387ef5ab2d5aa6c45df30d43" }, { "statement": "The Israeli military conducts at least one airstrike inside Beirut municipality or its southern suburbs (Dahiyeh) between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 40, "resolution": "An IDF statement claims a strike inside Beirut municipality or Dahiyeh (Haret Hreik, Burj al-Barajneh, Ghobeiry, Chiyah, Laylaki) and the Lebanese National News Agency reports the same strike, both dated 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-30. Strikes elsewhere do not count.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 72, 87, 90 ], "failure_condition": "No Israeli airstrike hits Beirut municipality or Dahiyeh at any time from 2026-09-08 through 2026-09-30.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-24", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:26.532682+00:00", "seal_sha256": "77f71804e5726f88bdbb0d317cfa9742e726075eb34e2458e210a64c129e04fb" }, { "statement": "Official Russian and Ukrainian government delegations hold a direct in-person negotiating session, bilateral or with third-party mediation, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 25, "resolution": "Both the Kremlin or Russian MFA and the Ukrainian Presidential Office or MFA confirm the same in-person delegation session held 2026-09-08 through 2026-10-30. Video calls, prisoner-exchange contacts, and meetings with US officials only do not count.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 68 ], "failure_condition": "No in-person Russian-Ukrainian delegation session takes place between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-25", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:26.532692+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9a37c50295700d3dbd3bf38d817e60c15d9ef42efa7850995206095a3645b531" }, { "statement": "The Iraqi government or the US Department of Defense announces, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-02, that US military forces will remain stationed at bases in Iraq, including the Kurdistan Region, beyond 2026-09-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 15, "resolution": "An official statement from the Iraqi PM office, Iraqi Armed Forces spokesperson, CENTCOM, CJTF-OIR, or US DoD, dated 2026-09-08 to 2026-10-02, announces US forces remaining at Iraqi bases past 2026-09-30. Embassy security and security-cooperation staff excluded.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 101 ], "failure_condition": "US forces complete their withdrawal, or no continuation of US basing in Iraq past 2026-09-30 is announced by either government by 2026-10-02.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-26", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:26.532700+00:00", "seal_sha256": "253cc83ea89055fb116831b47e7179480d413050573add8f663b9e7205d5bbe5" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09. Reference: Brent 96.28 on the packet date.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 65, "resolution": "TRUE if the official ICE Brent front-month daily settlement price is at or above 100.00 USD on any trading day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09. Reference: 96.28 at seal.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 42, 50 ], "failure_condition": "Every ICE Brent front-month daily settlement between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09 is below 100.00 USD.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-27", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:27.524778+00:00", "seal_sha256": "df1a5b88a2c8a721a3369723f4ad1a22c6dd8dac9482701e8f8a4a21cbe0bb81" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one ConnectWise ScreenConnect entry with a date-added value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 60, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog contains an entry naming ConnectWise or ScreenConnect in its vendor or product fields with dateAdded between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 16, 20 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog contains no ConnectWise or ScreenConnect entry with dateAdded between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-28", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:27.524799+00:00", "seal_sha256": "355b70e1019b944cd4a6c0062f132dbed8cd8b5696fc832db6fcc9bf2d53830a" }, { "statement": "The NTSB publishes a preliminary report on the 2026-09-06 cargo aircraft accident at Miami International Airport between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 85, "resolution": "TRUE if an NTSB preliminary report for the 2026-09-06 Miami cargo aircraft accident appears in the NTSB public investigation database dated between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 86, 98 ], "failure_condition": "No NTSB preliminary report for the 2026-09-06 Miami cargo aircraft accident is publicly available dated on or before 2026-10-30.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-29", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:27.524810+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3436d10065043ab1282636cc446fa11c00a7be3e34775c5c35f96911beff9e18" }, { "statement": "Democratic candidates win a majority of seats in the United States House of Representatives in the elections held 2026-11-03.", "domain": "political", "probability": 60, "resolution": "TRUE if Associated Press race calls credit Democratic candidates with at least 218 US House seats from the 2026-11-03 elections, as of 2026-12-04.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 105 ], "failure_condition": "As of 2026-12-04 Associated Press race calls credit Democratic candidates with fewer than 218 US House seats from the 2026-11-03 elections.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-30", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:27.524819+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0ac5fbedc2475fd095aa91556d42d01be8553e555dc7356ae323254037e50b53" }, { "statement": "The Paris court trying the murder of Federico Aramburu delivers a verdict between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-18.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 85, "resolution": "TRUE if two international news outlets report a verdict delivered in the Paris trial over the murder of Federico Aramburu between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-18.", "deadline": "2026-12-22", "citations": [ 11 ], "failure_condition": "No verdict is delivered in the Paris Aramburu murder trial between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-18.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-31", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:27.524826+00:00", "seal_sha256": "bf61fb63c8b307fc0492494d20e3f7df748e30e77d662393cf4349a34b68b818" }, { "statement": "The United States and Iraqi governments both publicly announce completion of the US-led coalition military mission in Iraq between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if both the US and Iraqi governments announce the coalition military mission in Iraq has ended between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-31, reported by two international news agencies.", "deadline": "2027-01-05", "citations": [ 101 ], "failure_condition": "By 2026-12-31 the US and Iraqi governments have not both announced completion of the coalition military mission in Iraq.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-32", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:27.524835+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e490996fc054a502d6ea6b5b9a925945b565259aa797438f71698e6ce1884d88" }, { "statement": "The Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt elects a member of the AfD as Minister-President between 2026-09-08 and 2027-02-26.", "domain": "political", "probability": 12, "resolution": "TRUE if the Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt elects an AfD member as Minister-President between 2026-09-08 and 2027-02-26, per the Landtag official record or two international news outlets.", "deadline": "2027-03-02", "citations": [ 93, 100, 114 ], "failure_condition": "By 2027-02-26 the Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt has not elected an AfD member as Minister-President.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-33", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:27.524844+00:00", "seal_sha256": "11306e7922979eea246c3078268fb16bd48df46a6b1b3105e7fabbeb068eccc4" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent front-month futures settle at or above 110.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-14 and 2026-11-27. Reference: 96.28 on the packet date, 2026-09-07.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 32, "resolution": "TRUE if ICE publishes a front-month Brent settlement price greater than or equal to 110.00 for any trading day between 2026-09-14 and 2026-11-27 inclusive. Intraday highs do not count; settlement prices only. Reference level at seal: 96.28.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 42, 50, 80 ], "failure_condition": "Every ICE Brent front-month settlement inside the window prints below 110.00 dollars.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-34", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:28.503435+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0b03540a0037dd75df8c33f83637e3797478aee2007a96ef6c8172e16691fa29" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog adds at least one vulnerability with vendorProject N-able, carrying a dateAdded value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 70, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities JSON feed contains an entry whose vendorProject field reads N-able and whose dateAdded falls between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30 inclusive. Entries carrying an earlier dateAdded do not count.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 21, 23 ], "failure_condition": "No N-able entry in the KEV catalog carries a dateAdded inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-35", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:28.503457+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a230f2fdc0dfd5d3b60eb487730168265fc10f4c604d9818fd642001e530da9b" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog adds at least one vulnerability with vendorProject MikroTik, carrying a dateAdded value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-04.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities JSON feed contains an entry whose vendorProject field reads MikroTik and whose dateAdded falls between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-04 inclusive. Pre-existing MikroTik entries do not count.", "deadline": "2026-12-08", "citations": [ 19 ], "failure_condition": "No MikroTik entry in the KEV catalog carries a dateAdded inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-36", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:28.503472+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b00b7a6a82f606b2f00fc1bf65baaf87487be5baf706b8375f45e2137904a441" }, { "statement": "A commercial vessel is struck by weapons fire, forcibly boarded, or seized in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Oman between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 55, "resolution": "TRUE if two or more of Reuters, AP, and Bloomberg report a commercial vessel hit by weapons fire, forcibly boarded, or seized in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman, dated inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 50, 80 ], "failure_condition": "No commercial vessel is struck, forcibly boarded, or seized in those waters inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-37", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:28.503481+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2a1dfe07f1f078e0866902fd9e853c5d96d29d9692ec58b500e9a3bcbe947040" }, { "statement": "Israeli strikes in Lebanon kill at least 25 people within a single 24-hour period between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-12.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 45, "resolution": "TRUE if two or more of Reuters, AFP, and AP carry a Lebanese Health Ministry figure of 25 or more killed by Israeli strikes in Lebanon over one 24-hour period inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-16", "citations": [ 72, 87, 90 ], "failure_condition": "No single 24-hour period inside the window produces a Lebanese Health Ministry toll of 25 or more killed by Israeli strikes.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-38", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:28.503491+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5a473c39164bae2a98d5fa7c1df8f58ff4fd338d96370e9a4c40b9466e8b3257" }, { "statement": "The Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt elects an AfD member as Minister-President between 2026-09-14 and 2026-12-18.", "domain": "political", "probability": 15, "resolution": "TRUE if the official plenary record of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt shows a Minister-President elected inside the window who holds AfD membership at the vote. A caretaker incumbent continuing in office resolves FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-12-23", "citations": [ 93, 100, 102 ], "failure_condition": "No AfD member is elected Minister-President of Saxony-Anhalt by the Landtag inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-39", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:28.503498+00:00", "seal_sha256": "33e9aed4fc2857e4ab06435562ab21538013d76df527e625a0c48ed20b1d86e3" }, { "statement": "Nepal's official confirmed flood death toll reaches 1,500 or higher between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-23.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 38, "resolution": "TRUE if Nepal's National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority publishes a confirmed cumulative 2026 flood death toll of 1,500 or more, dated inside the window. Missing-persons counts are excluded.", "deadline": "2026-10-27", "citations": [ 26, 31, 91 ], "failure_condition": "The authority's confirmed cumulative death toll stays below 1,500 through the close of the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-40", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:28.503506+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2d446dcba0c9b30a50b8bcaec8f428dbbdaea25491e9aa202cbe29ef023e91ad" }, { "statement": "Following the AfD first-place finish in the 6 September 2026 Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election reported in the packet, the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag will elect an AfD-nominated Minister-President in a floor vote between 2026-09-14 and 2026-12-01.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag confirms an AfD-nominated Minister-President by floor vote in the window, per official Landtag records and at least one of dpa, Reuters, or AP; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 93, 99, 100 ], "failure_condition": "The Saxony-Anhalt Landtag does not elect an AfD-nominated Minister-President within the window, whether because the seat stays vacant, a non-AfD candidate wins, or no vote is held by the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-07T18:17:28Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-41", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:29.590399+00:00", "seal_sha256": "62b029e5431c0376fde3585cf9868b288f8031cb27df0abc6d8946133f5c4923" }, { "statement": "Following the resignation of the senior AI policy adviser to the UK government over an Anthropic conflict of interest, reported 2026-09-07, the UK government will publicly name a permanent successor to that role between 2026-09-14 and 2026-11-13.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if the UK government publicly names, via a GOV.UK release or a wire service report, PA Media or Reuters, a permanent successor to the role within the window; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-11-16", "citations": [ 94 ], "failure_condition": "The UK government has not publicly named a permanent successor to the vacated AI policy adviser role by the deadline, whether the post remains vacant or is filled only on an interim basis.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-07T18:17:28Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-42", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:29.590420+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1cd43cacfabdcfd651dfd77b0cf5eb3789a6dbc59790601ea4d3440bf95c27a2" }, { "statement": "Reference: the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.78 percent per the market snapshot in the packet dated 2026-09-07. The FRED DGS10 series will show a daily 10-year Treasury yield at or above 4.95 percent on at least one day between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-09.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 21, "resolution": "TRUE if the FRED DGS10 daily series records a value at or above 4.95 percent on any date in the window; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 64 ], "failure_condition": "The FRED DGS10 series never records a daily value at or above 4.95 percent on any date within the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-07T18:17:28Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-43", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:29.590432+00:00", "seal_sha256": "85bfb56cfb353b85f60dbd646167be3137fa576a672155c8aca366d84707f5cf" }, { "statement": "Following the report of a Telerik UI padding-oracle bug chained to unauthenticated remote code execution, the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog will add a Telerik UI entry between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-19.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog carries a dateAdded value for a Telerik UI CVE falling within the window; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-22", "citations": [ 17 ], "failure_condition": "No Telerik UI CVE is added to the CISA KEV catalog with a dateAdded value inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-07T18:17:28Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-44", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:29.590441+00:00", "seal_sha256": "93a576ad319aa477c7871d79db5441284a8aed35bba3d417dc1e9a6cb586ae13" }, { "statement": "Amid reports questioning whether Iran can enforce a restricted zone in the Strait of Hormuz, the government of Iran or the IRGC Navy will formally declare a named restricted or exclusion zone in the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-12.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "TRUE if Iranian state media, meaning IRNA, Tasnim, or Mehr, and at least one of Reuters, AP, or AFP both report a formally declared, named Hormuz restricted zone within the window; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-15", "citations": [ 80, 42 ], "failure_condition": "The government of Iran and the IRGC Navy do not formally declare a named restricted or exclusion zone in the Strait of Hormuz within the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-07T18:17:28Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-45", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:29.590449+00:00", "seal_sha256": "cf3d0f0df217bc85ebb34e6872fcc6e42ceec767b98616f3736aebb8d0eecaa9" }, { "statement": "Following reports of Israel-Hezbollah clashes killing 11 and Israeli strikes on a southern Lebanese village killing 12, a formally announced ceasefire or truce covering Israel-Hezbollah hostilities in southern Lebanon will take effect between 2026-09-14 and 2026-11-13.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "TRUE if the government of Israel, the government of Lebanon, or Hezbollah announces a ceasefire or truce that takes effect in the window, corroborated by a Western wire service and a regional outlet; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-11-16", "citations": [ 72, 90 ], "failure_condition": "Hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon continue without a ceasefire or truce taking effect within the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-07T18:17:28Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-46", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:29.590457+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9e91cb2d5b2e9cc804eec32465051eb8ed93a55473bdda1f36eeb9d8a1688880" }, { "statement": "Reference: the packet dated 2026-09-07 reports more than 1,300 confirmed dead in the Nepal flooding. The cumulative confirmed death toll reported by disaster authorities in Nepal will reach or exceed 1,500 between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-12.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 36, "resolution": "TRUE if the NDRRMA of Nepal, a Nepal government source, or a wire service, AP, Reuters, or AFP, reports a cumulative confirmed death toll at or above 1,500 within the window; else FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-10-15", "citations": [ 91, 26 ], "failure_condition": "The cumulative confirmed flood death toll in Nepal does not reach 1,500 within the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3617, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-07T18:17:28Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-47", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:29.590465+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5448d2103c0ff94d8737077f532b698233c54658f8f63dd5b0a5440a2af39ce9" }, { "statement": "NYMEX WTI front-month crude settles at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on 2026-10-02. Reference: 91.48 on the packet date 2026-09-07.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 21, "resolution": "CME Group official settlement price of the front-month NYMEX WTI (CL) contract for trade date 2026-10-02 is at or above 100.00 USD. Reference: 91.48 on the packet date 2026-09-07. Any settlement below 100.00 resolves false.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 42, 50, 88 ], "failure_condition": "The front-month WTI settlement for trade date 2026-10-02 is below 100.00 USD.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-07T18:17:29Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-48", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:30.666153+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6d2d3f39578056c810a203c30fa31ee8d5b37d058366fe23e25fb905d91f1320" }, { "statement": "The US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield closes at or above 5.00 percent on at least one business day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 4.78 percent on the packet date 2026-09-07.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 21, "resolution": "FRED series DGS10 (Treasury 10-year constant maturity) shows a daily value of 5.00 or higher for at least one date from 2026-09-08 through 2026-10-30 inclusive. Reference: 4.78 on 2026-09-07. No such value resolves false.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 64, 62 ], "failure_condition": "The DGS10 daily value never reaches 5.00 percent on any business day from 2026-09-08 through 2026-10-30.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-07T18:17:29Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-49", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:30.666173+00:00", "seal_sha256": "bad5fb30e88ed81f359378adbf571e8e0edef71519a58e229773406061490f01" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog adds at least one N-able N-central vulnerability (CVE-2026-86218, CVE-2026-86207, or CVE-2026-86206) with a dateAdded between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-25.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities JSON feed lists CVE-2026-86218, CVE-2026-86207, or CVE-2026-86206 with a dateAdded value from 2026-09-08 through 2026-09-25 inclusive. No entry, or entries dated outside that range only, resolves false.", "deadline": "2026-09-29", "citations": [ 21, 23 ], "failure_condition": "None of CVE-2026-86218, CVE-2026-86207, or CVE-2026-86206 carries a KEV dateAdded within 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-25.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-07T18:17:29Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-50", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:30.666184+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f6c2071b6a5119dc8b388af8f82ec21af6b9351a6454b615d7b9289a59257ab4" }, { "statement": "Ulrich Siegmund (AfD) is elected Ministerpraesident of Saxony-Anhalt by the Landtag in a ballot held between 2026-09-08 and 2027-01-13.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "The Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt official plenary record or press release shows Ulrich Siegmund elected Ministerpraesident in any ballot round dated 2026-09-08 through 2027-01-13. Election of anyone else, or no completed election in that window, resolves false.", "deadline": "2027-01-15", "citations": [ 83, 93, 99, 100 ], "failure_condition": "No Landtag ballot within the window elects Siegmund; either another person is elected or no election is completed by 2027-01-13.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-07T18:17:29Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-51", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:30.666193+00:00", "seal_sha256": "2918026c6063169fce620e2bf342e976a9d9d1ee387ef5ab2d5aa6c45df30d43" }, { "statement": "The Israeli military conducts at least one airstrike inside Beirut municipality or its southern suburbs (Dahiyeh) between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "An IDF statement claims a strike inside Beirut municipality or Dahiyeh (Haret Hreik, Burj al-Barajneh, Ghobeiry, Chiyah, Laylaki) and the Lebanese National News Agency reports the same strike, both dated 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-30. Strikes elsewhere do not count.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 72, 87, 90 ], "failure_condition": "No Israeli airstrike hits Beirut municipality or Dahiyeh at any time from 2026-09-08 through 2026-09-30.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-07T18:17:29Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-52", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:30.666201+00:00", "seal_sha256": "248f6cd4e529e5ec6fb06f3d365ef9b866d4cb879591dab0dcfe22e16e59b96f" }, { "statement": "Official Russian and Ukrainian government delegations hold a direct in-person negotiating session, bilateral or with third-party mediation, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "Both the Kremlin or Russian MFA and the Ukrainian Presidential Office or MFA confirm the same in-person delegation session held 2026-09-08 through 2026-10-30. Video calls, prisoner-exchange contacts, and meetings with US officials only do not count.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 68 ], "failure_condition": "No in-person Russian-Ukrainian delegation session takes place between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-07T18:17:29Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-53", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:30.666210+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fc769ba55a45847317a6047d38a91cf70b523b04122fce8bb0a75424b4e2a7fa" }, { "statement": "The Iraqi government or the US Department of Defense announces, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-02, that US military forces will remain stationed at bases in Iraq, including the Kurdistan Region, beyond 2026-09-30.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "An official statement from the Iraqi PM office, Iraqi Armed Forces spokesperson, CENTCOM, CJTF-OIR, or US DoD, dated 2026-09-08 to 2026-10-02, announces US forces remaining at Iraqi bases past 2026-09-30. Embassy security and security-cooperation staff excluded.", "deadline": "2026-10-06", "citations": [ 101 ], "failure_condition": "US forces complete their withdrawal, or no continuation of US basing in Iraq past 2026-09-30 is announced by either government by 2026-10-02.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-07T18:17:29Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-54", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:30.666219+00:00", "seal_sha256": "fda4d7d79ef9a04f4e2afb7ea0cfadc8ff24d7a563c65edfabc2262beb2b6865" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09. Reference: Brent 96.28 on the packet date.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 21, "resolution": "TRUE if the official ICE Brent front-month daily settlement price is at or above 100.00 USD on any trading day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09. Reference: 96.28 at seal.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 42, 50 ], "failure_condition": "Every ICE Brent front-month daily settlement between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09 is below 100.00 USD.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-07T18:17:30Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-55", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:31.743238+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d17fcfa2f6b0d5cf71ff454c68d3cbda90611b6dfa87fb51c83be4693114e3bd" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one ConnectWise ScreenConnect entry with a date-added value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog contains an entry naming ConnectWise or ScreenConnect in its vendor or product fields with dateAdded between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 16, 20 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog contains no ConnectWise or ScreenConnect entry with dateAdded between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-07T18:17:30Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-56", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:31.743259+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ca9fcf5b23d4dc7ba53a381669c525591771d10f4455234c840ab923b909683b" }, { "statement": "The NTSB publishes a preliminary report on the 2026-09-06 cargo aircraft accident at Miami International Airport between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 36, "resolution": "TRUE if an NTSB preliminary report for the 2026-09-06 Miami cargo aircraft accident appears in the NTSB public investigation database dated between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 86, 98 ], "failure_condition": "No NTSB preliminary report for the 2026-09-06 Miami cargo aircraft accident is publicly available dated on or before 2026-10-30.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3617, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-07T18:17:30Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-57", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:31.743271+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4f5b06a03b9b50ec2c419b7853e46ff63606fd12b32515d702c41f62c6ba74ca" }, { "statement": "Democratic candidates win a majority of seats in the United States House of Representatives in the elections held 2026-11-03.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if Associated Press race calls credit Democratic candidates with at least 218 US House seats from the 2026-11-03 elections, as of 2026-12-04.", "deadline": "2026-12-04", "citations": [ 105 ], "failure_condition": "As of 2026-12-04 Associated Press race calls credit Democratic candidates with fewer than 218 US House seats from the 2026-11-03 elections.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-07T18:17:30Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-58", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:31.743279+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7de939b36ae267bb162b0f0a705e8510e4e053eab91cbaf0286282d38248f174" }, { "statement": "The Paris court trying the murder of Federico Aramburu delivers a verdict between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-18.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 36, "resolution": "TRUE if two international news outlets report a verdict delivered in the Paris trial over the murder of Federico Aramburu between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-18.", "deadline": "2026-12-22", "citations": [ 11 ], "failure_condition": "No verdict is delivered in the Paris Aramburu murder trial between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-18.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3574, "n": 249, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-07T18:17:30Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-59", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:31.743288+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8ab3e4840a850676ffbbb4a9783b438cb258db00f6e0d4c9220cc93464ea47e2" }, { "statement": "The United States and Iraqi governments both publicly announce completion of the US-led coalition military mission in Iraq between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-31.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "TRUE if both the US and Iraqi governments announce the coalition military mission in Iraq has ended between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-31, reported by two international news agencies.", "deadline": "2027-01-05", "citations": [ 101 ], "failure_condition": "By 2026-12-31 the US and Iraqi governments have not both announced completion of the coalition military mission in Iraq.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-07T18:17:30Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-60", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:31.743296+00:00", "seal_sha256": "92e4f7249cf80e0b5fae4b9edd1e5ada9884cfe0d04e95fba1a1463fdf4c5771" }, { "statement": "The Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt elects a member of the AfD as Minister-President between 2026-09-08 and 2027-02-26.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if the Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt elects an AfD member as Minister-President between 2026-09-08 and 2027-02-26, per the Landtag official record or two international news outlets.", "deadline": "2027-03-02", "citations": [ 93, 100, 114 ], "failure_condition": "By 2027-02-26 the Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt has not elected an AfD member as Minister-President.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-07T18:17:30Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-61", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:31.743303+00:00", "seal_sha256": "cf4f98ac78d566e7c8893818bb732a469733c44196f691670c39a819ec702c92" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent front-month futures settle at or above 110.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-14 and 2026-11-27. Reference: 96.28 on the packet date, 2026-09-07.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 21, "resolution": "TRUE if ICE publishes a front-month Brent settlement price greater than or equal to 110.00 for any trading day between 2026-09-14 and 2026-11-27 inclusive. Intraday highs do not count; settlement prices only. Reference level at seal: 96.28.", "deadline": "2026-12-02", "citations": [ 42, 50, 80 ], "failure_condition": "Every ICE Brent front-month settlement inside the window prints below 110.00 dollars.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-07T18:17:31Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-62", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:32.808106+00:00", "seal_sha256": "c095a60d80593478e56815670cb8a1f15c7dffd3c8844be1beb62db404cafb3f" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog adds at least one vulnerability with vendorProject N-able, carrying a dateAdded value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities JSON feed contains an entry whose vendorProject field reads N-able and whose dateAdded falls between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30 inclusive. Entries carrying an earlier dateAdded do not count.", "deadline": "2026-11-03", "citations": [ 21, 23 ], "failure_condition": "No N-able entry in the KEV catalog carries a dateAdded inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-07T18:17:31Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-63", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:32.808128+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f633e569241f839863cb5860e39cbe85800ff7ea47196913da1c47adfb7063be" }, { "statement": "The CISA KEV catalog adds at least one vulnerability with vendorProject MikroTik, carrying a dateAdded value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-04.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities JSON feed contains an entry whose vendorProject field reads MikroTik and whose dateAdded falls between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-04 inclusive. Pre-existing MikroTik entries do not count.", "deadline": "2026-12-08", "citations": [ 19 ], "failure_condition": "No MikroTik entry in the KEV catalog carries a dateAdded inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-07T18:17:31Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-64", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:32.808140+00:00", "seal_sha256": "592aad7dc37a55cab4e079ec8827215833816640c35cb53f76129b460a2cb4aa" }, { "statement": "A commercial vessel is struck by weapons fire, forcibly boarded, or seized in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Oman between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-31.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "TRUE if two or more of Reuters, AP, and Bloomberg report a commercial vessel hit by weapons fire, forcibly boarded, or seized in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman, dated inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-11-04", "citations": [ 50, 80 ], "failure_condition": "No commercial vessel is struck, forcibly boarded, or seized in those waters inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-07T18:17:31Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-65", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:32.808150+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a915799d45850df046468f372ce3057851a3d654863c1fc550c83871c8d78696" }, { "statement": "Israeli strikes in Lebanon kill at least 25 people within a single 24-hour period between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-12.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "TRUE if two or more of Reuters, AFP, and AP carry a Lebanese Health Ministry figure of 25 or more killed by Israeli strikes in Lebanon over one 24-hour period inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-16", "citations": [ 72, 87, 90 ], "failure_condition": "No single 24-hour period inside the window produces a Lebanese Health Ministry toll of 25 or more killed by Israeli strikes.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-07T18:17:31Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-66", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:32.808157+00:00", "seal_sha256": "92f2fba1081796d8afd27b8e9d742eb0370c28754990350c649c66391fb0b796" }, { "statement": "The Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt elects an AfD member as Minister-President between 2026-09-14 and 2026-12-18.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if the official plenary record of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt shows a Minister-President elected inside the window who holds AfD membership at the vote. A caretaker incumbent continuing in office resolves FALSE.", "deadline": "2026-12-23", "citations": [ 93, 100, 102 ], "failure_condition": "No AfD member is elected Minister-President of Saxony-Anhalt by the Landtag inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-07T18:17:31Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-67", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:32.808164+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a74707ce9855494f9418fb4583a3f72505cd105828d0c4da99fc8c8b8d2bc931" }, { "statement": "Nepal's official confirmed flood death toll reaches 1,500 or higher between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-23.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 36, "resolution": "TRUE if Nepal's National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority publishes a confirmed cumulative 2026 flood death toll of 1,500 or more, dated inside the window. Missing-persons counts are excluded.", "deadline": "2026-10-27", "citations": [ 26, 31, 91 ], "failure_condition": "The authority's confirmed cumulative death toll stays below 1,500 through the close of the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3617, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-07T18:17:31Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-07_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260907-68", "date_issued": "2026-09-07", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-07_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-07T18:17:32.808172+00:00", "seal_sha256": "912126772d2de2c52f353b52c7046a98a88c2292507708e78c3f1d11c3cc642e" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-25, Brent crude oil exceeds $100 per barrel at the close of a trading day on a major exchange (e.g., ICE Futures Europe).", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The ICE Futures Europe settlement price for Brent crude oil futures on any trading day between 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-25 is equal to or greater than $100.00 per barrel.", "deadline": "2026-10-07", "citations": [ 50, 51 ], "failure_condition": "Brent crude oil never reaches or exceeds $100 per barrel at the close of any trading day in the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260908-01", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T15:19:50.109281+00:00", "seal_sha256": "70049d605209da7dd4967e1cc5424d4c6036630d33ca537c202afe304e22a7cd" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-30, the CISA KEV catalog adds at least one new vulnerability with a CVSS score of 9.0 or higher that is actively exploited in the wild.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 15, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-30 for a vulnerability with a CVSS score of 9.0 or higher and a 'Status' of 'Exploited in the Wild'.", "deadline": "2026-10-08", "citations": [ 12, 15 ], "failure_condition": "No new vulnerability with CVSS ≥9.0 and 'Exploited in the Wild' status is added to the CISA KEV catalog during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260908-02", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T15:19:50.109306+00:00", "seal_sha256": "0ef6634d15239de2d370673be19a710aa4a38d8340c2c3440c26093d97233049" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-24 and 2026-10-01, a major earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or higher occurs in the Pacific Northwest region (Washington, Oregon, or Northern California).", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 10, "resolution": "The USGS Significant Quakes feed records an earthquake with magnitude ≥6.0 and location within the Pacific Northwest (latitude 39.0-49.0, longitude -124.0 to -116.0) between 2026-09-24 and 2026-10-01.", "deadline": "2026-10-09", "citations": [ 36, 43 ], "failure_condition": "No earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or higher is recorded in the Pacific Northwest during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260908-03", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T15:19:50.109321+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5666dd7cecf5225f4548d08dcaa06dc1706fada3d6d76ed964bff80dde6e5c93" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-25 and 2026-10-02, a new political scandal involving a U.S. federal official is confirmed by at least two independent news outlets (e.g., Guardian, BBC, Al Jazeera) and results in a formal investigation by a congressional committee.", "domain": "political", "probability": 20, "resolution": "At least two independent news outlets (Guardian World, BBC World, Al Jazeera) report a new political scandal involving a U.S. federal official, and a U.S. congressional committee publicly announces a formal investigation into the matter between 2026-09-25 and 2026-10-02.", "deadline": "2026-10-10", "citations": [ 95, 96, 100, 105 ], "failure_condition": "No such scandal is confirmed by two independent outlets or no formal congressional investigation is announced during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260908-04", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T15:19:50.109332+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9987961195b76ca86cbdf7b3fa289f809e81716c98893eac1777f5e4052a74a9" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-27 and 2026-10-04, a new ceasefire agreement is signed between Israel and Hamas, verified by at least two neutral international bodies (e.g., UN, Qatar, Egypt).", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 5, "resolution": "At least two neutral international organizations (e.g., UN, Qatar, Egypt) issue a public statement confirming the signing of a new ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas between 2026-09-27 and 2026-10-04.", "deadline": "2026-10-12", "citations": [ 87, 89, 93 ], "failure_condition": "No such ceasefire agreement is confirmed by two neutral international bodies during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260908-05", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T15:19:50.109342+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b0465fbd540a524ee610348210acfbfac00004f0934898ef24c192f0efb091db" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-05, a major wildfire in Australia burns over 100,000 hectares and is confirmed by the GDACS Alerts feed.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 12, "resolution": "The GDACS Alerts feed records a wildfire event in Australia with a burned area of at least 100,000 hectares between 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-05.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 31, 32, 34, 42 ], "failure_condition": "No wildfire in Australia is recorded by GDACS with a burned area of 100,000 hectares or more during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260908-06", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T15:19:50.109350+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d8b395b8f496c88caa1f50034cd5f51dba0eb40a531cb080c2e9066aa74110e6" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-06, a new economic policy shift in Canada results in a 3% or greater increase in the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar at the close of a trading day.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 22, "resolution": "The exchange rate for the Canadian dollar (CAD) against the U.S. dollar (USD) reaches or exceeds 1.4000 at the close of any trading day between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-06.", "deadline": "2026-10-14", "citations": [ 67, 69 ], "failure_condition": "The CAD/USD exchange rate never reaches or exceeds 1.4000 at the close of any trading day in the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260908-07", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T15:19:50.109359+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e3cb3a0a9bba41a96213621d15eb0464b9d1cdfe8286ff223057c983893616bf" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-30 and 2026-10-07, a new criminal indictment is issued by a U.S. federal court against a high-profile political figure, confirmed by a public docket entry in the PACER system.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 8, "resolution": "A public docket entry in the PACER system (https://pacer.uscourts.gov) confirms a new criminal indictment against a U.S. federal political figure between 2026-09-30 and 2026-10-07.", "deadline": "2026-10-15", "citations": [ 9, 10, 11 ], "failure_condition": "No such indictment is confirmed by a PACER docket entry during the event window.", "id": "KKR-20260908-08", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "lmstudio/auto", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T15:19:50.109367+00:00", "seal_sha256": "412b143c24da4e402b7064ef9dab5e567a4e749f5e8c40d1614676d84291bbbc" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-25, a cyberattack exploiting the Adobe Magento zero-day vulnerability (CVE-2026-XXXX) is confirmed to have compromised at least 500 servers in the United States, as documented in the CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value between 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-25.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog carries a record with a date-added value between 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-25, listing the vulnerability as actively exploited in the United States, with a confirmed impact on at least 500 servers.", "deadline": "2027-02-28", "citations": [ 12, 15 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog does not carry a record with a date-added value between 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-25 listing the Adobe Magento zero-day as actively exploited in the United States with confirmed impact on at least 500 servers.", "id": "KKR-20260908-09", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-08_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T15:22:16.231504+00:00", "seal_sha256": "08ec4cad3addd8a57ff454738b5138af012cb6245a83ab39947ee367abfb6e2a" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-24 and 2026-09-27, a major earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher occurs in the Pacific Northwest, confirmed by the USGS Significant Quakes feed with a location within 100 km of Seattle, Washington.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 15, "resolution": "The USGS Significant Quakes feed carries a report with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher and a location within 100 km of Seattle, Washington, with a timestamp between 2026-09-24 and 2026-09-27.", "deadline": "2027-02-27", "citations": [ 36 ], "failure_condition": "The USGS Significant Quakes feed does not carry a report with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher and a location within 100 km of Seattle, Washington, between 2026-09-24 and 2026-09-27.", "id": "KKR-20260908-10", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-08_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T15:22:16.231527+00:00", "seal_sha256": "009c32dea5afe6be27241720507baeef25aa76478ea7420d27bc0c6fa05c9a54" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-25 and 2026-09-28, the Iranian Foreign Ministry issues a formal statement declaring a new diplomatic initiative to reopen the Strait of Hormuz unconditionally, confirmed by two independent sources (one from AXIS, one from WEST) with identical wording and timestamp.", "domain": "political", "probability": 20, "resolution": "Two independently biased sources (one from AXIS, one from WEST) publish a statement from the Iranian Foreign Ministry on the same date, declaring a new diplomatic initiative to reopen the Strait of Hormuz unconditionally, with identical wording and timestamp.", "deadline": "2027-02-25", "citations": [ 64, 85 ], "failure_condition": "No two independently biased sources (one from AXIS, one from WEST) publish a statement from the Iranian Foreign Ministry on the same date declaring a new diplomatic initiative to reopen the Strait of Hormuz unconditionally with identical wording and timestamp.", "id": "KKR-20260908-11", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-08_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T15:22:16.231541+00:00", "seal_sha256": "788606169ab49ca6695dcc89c11293b031b9a824b1f6f84c07c61603c33330aa" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-26 and 2026-09-29, a coordinated cyberattack on U.S. federal agencies exploits the SAP OVERPASS kernel vulnerability (CVE-2026-XXXX), resulting in at least one confirmed breach of a classified system, as reported in the CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value between 2026-09-26 and 2026-09-29.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 18, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog carries a record with a date-added value between 2026-09-26 and 2026-09-29, listing the SAP OVERPASS kernel vulnerability as actively exploited in a U.S. federal agency, with a confirmed breach of a classified system.", "deadline": "2027-03-05", "citations": [ 13 ], "failure_condition": "The CISA KEV catalog does not carry a record with a date-added value between 2026-09-26 and 2026-09-29 listing the SAP OVERPASS kernel vulnerability as actively exploited in a U.S. federal agency with a confirmed breach of a classified system.", "id": "KKR-20260908-12", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-08_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T15:22:16.231551+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f79f3439cdadc2ab146fca3a4caba51992669b404291da37f5bf7a73ef5bd4eb" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-27 and 2026-09-30, a new wave of political protests erupts in the West Bank, leading to the arrest of at least 150 individuals by Israeli security forces, confirmed by two independent news outlets (one from IL, one from PS) reporting the event with a specific date and number.", "domain": "political", "probability": 40, "resolution": "Two independently biased outlets (one from IL, one from PS) publish a report on the same date, confirming that at least 150 individuals were arrested by Israeli security forces in the West Bank during a new wave of political protests between 2026-09-27 and 2026-09-30.", "deadline": "2027-02-26", "citations": [ 95, 101 ], "failure_condition": "No two independently biased outlets (one from IL, one from PS) publish a report on the same date confirming that at least 150 individuals were arrested by Israeli security forces in the West Bank during a new wave of political protests between 2026-09-27 and 2026-09-30.", "id": "KKR-20260908-13", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-08_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T15:22:16.231563+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ae69c515e019e7c0b532b21e8e5fe1331b5c33ab834f2270ec9eb3e8d6ede9a5" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-01, a major wildfire breaks out in the Australian state of Victoria, confirmed by the GDACS Alerts feed with a green alert issued for the region and a reported area burned exceeding 10,000 hectares.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 22, "resolution": "The GDACS Alerts feed carries a green alert for a wildfire in Victoria, Australia, with a reported area burned exceeding 10,000 hectares, issued between 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-01.", "deadline": "2027-02-28", "citations": [ 32 ], "failure_condition": "The GDACS Alerts feed does not carry a green alert for a wildfire in Victoria, Australia, with a reported area burned exceeding 10,000 hectares, issued between 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-01.", "id": "KKR-20260908-14", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-08_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T15:22:16.231572+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a01df293a9a5b95d4a0ce7124124a2205ee2e1c0857a8e0a6dcd7120068a38a8" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-02, a new round of sanctions is imposed by the United States on Iranian airlines, confirmed by a press release from the U.S. Department of the Treasury with a timestamp between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-02.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 38, "resolution": "The U.S. Department of the Treasury issues a press release with a timestamp between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-02, imposing new sanctions on Iranian airlines.", "deadline": "2027-03-06", "citations": [ 51 ], "failure_condition": "The U.S. Department of the Treasury does not issue a press release with a timestamp between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-02 imposing new sanctions on Iranian airlines.", "id": "KKR-20260908-15", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "lmstudio/realist", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_frame_realist_2026-09-08_1519.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "frame": "realist", "frame_hash": "7b96df749db5034b43dd8539a201f65361038d3da37cb956c8f70c69e5c666ff", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T15:22:16.231580+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e9118e934523e6c44ea1266888ea0a6c57a69ee5a72b7c42402db329b84d3596" }, { "statement": "CVE-2026-75650, the Adobe Commerce and Magento Open Source remote code execution flaw Adobe confirmed as actively exploited on 2026-09-08, is added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-29.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 47, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog lists CVE-2026-75650 with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-29 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-01", "citations": [ 12, 15 ], "failure_condition": "CVE-2026-75650 is absent from the CISA KEV catalog as of 2026-10-01, or its dateAdded value falls after 2026-09-29.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-16", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:46.813874+00:00", "seal_sha256": "01299164ae9f476bbb0624b34e1d8a982510a69ab4c52a47d414bfb76b70cb28" }, { "statement": "The SAP kernel vulnerability SAP disclosed on 2026-09-08 under the codename OVERPASS, rated maximum severity, is added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-08.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 16, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog lists an SAP kernel CVE matching the OVERPASS advisory with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-08 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-12", "citations": [ 13 ], "failure_condition": "No CVE matching the OVERPASS advisory appears in the CISA KEV catalog with a dateAdded value on or before 2026-10-08.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-17", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:46.813896+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e36459a02c9ea9bccec95060d7d1f2674244c4d53f3ef58cdb2ad35889c83f2c" }, { "statement": "French police publicly announce at least one arrest of a suspect linked to the 2026-09-08 theft of paintings from the Musee Renoir in Cagnes-sur-Mer, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-08.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 37, "resolution": "A mainstream outlet reports French authorities have arrested and identified a suspect connected to the Cagnes-sur-Mer Renoir Museum theft, on or before 2026-10-08.", "deadline": "2026-10-12", "citations": [ 80, 94, 102 ], "failure_condition": "No arrest connected to the theft is publicly reported by 2026-10-08.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-18", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:46.813910+00:00", "seal_sha256": "7e54c571b6c4d6318544d1ee18f7b60bef4ce4058adbfff4998b8685fd5f2bcc" }, { "statement": "A named humanitarian body publicly reports the closure or suspension of services at one or more specific Sudanese hospitals due to healthcare system collapse, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-29.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 58, "resolution": "MSF, WHO, or another named humanitarian or UN body states in public reporting that a specific named Sudanese hospital or facility suspended or ceased operating due to collapse, within the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-01", "citations": [ 33 ], "failure_condition": "No named humanitarian body reports a specific hospital or facility closure in Sudan tied to system collapse by 2026-09-29.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-19", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:46.813923+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ad73cbec4222551d82e06014a0d82a65cf251b85de5e37bd3d77d97ec81f418d" }, { "statement": "OFAC adds at least one additional Iran-program entity or individual to the SDN list, beyond the airlines sanctioned per 2026-09-08 reporting, between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-08.", "domain": "political", "probability": 63, "resolution": "The US Treasury OFAC Specially Designated Nationals list shows a new Iran-program listing dated after 2026-09-08 and on or before 2026-10-08.", "deadline": "2026-10-12", "citations": [ 51 ], "failure_condition": "No new Iran-program SDN listing with a listing date in the window appears on the OFAC SDN list.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-20", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "manual/sonnet-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:46.813936+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e286ba13dc9af890d32e9fb4793f8862b47d7800e0089e385682d3b5d4be9bcd" }, { "statement": "CVE-2026-75650, the Adobe Commerce and Magento Open Source remote code execution flaw Adobe confirmed as actively exploited on 2026-09-08, is added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-29.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog lists CVE-2026-75650 with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-29 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-01", "citations": [ 12, 15 ], "failure_condition": "CVE-2026-75650 is absent from the CISA KEV catalog as of 2026-10-01, or its dateAdded value falls after 2026-09-29.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-08T20:51:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-21", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:48.282541+00:00", "seal_sha256": "514822cbba977e2fbc1fdae497f3d94835b3feab32ea1c8524f86f8c733f0675" }, { "statement": "The SAP kernel vulnerability SAP disclosed on 2026-09-08 under the codename OVERPASS, rated maximum severity, is added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-08.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "The CISA KEV catalog lists an SAP kernel CVE matching the OVERPASS advisory with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-08 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-12", "citations": [ 13 ], "failure_condition": "No CVE matching the OVERPASS advisory appears in the CISA KEV catalog with a dateAdded value on or before 2026-10-08.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-08T20:51:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-22", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:48.282563+00:00", "seal_sha256": "231aa271fd50b6fe1d40b3aca1aacf6379bacd1e3cf13077338722dd0f7eaa2b" }, { "statement": "French police publicly announce at least one arrest of a suspect linked to the 2026-09-08 theft of paintings from the Musee Renoir in Cagnes-sur-Mer, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-08.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 36, "resolution": "A mainstream outlet reports French authorities have arrested and identified a suspect connected to the Cagnes-sur-Mer Renoir Museum theft, on or before 2026-10-08.", "deadline": "2026-10-12", "citations": [ 80, 94, 102 ], "failure_condition": "No arrest connected to the theft is publicly reported by 2026-10-08.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3574, "n": 249, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-08T20:51:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-23", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:48.282574+00:00", "seal_sha256": "8d2b3dcadc9aaf31c0aff5770e542ac5695a5314a09eea8405366e99fcccf75d" }, { "statement": "A named humanitarian body publicly reports the closure or suspension of services at one or more specific Sudanese hospitals due to healthcare system collapse, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-29.", "domain": "disaster_infrastructure", "probability": 36, "resolution": "MSF, WHO, or another named humanitarian or UN body states in public reporting that a specific named Sudanese hospital or facility suspended or ceased operating due to collapse, within the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-01", "citations": [ 33 ], "failure_condition": "No named humanitarian body reports a specific hospital or facility closure in Sudan tied to system collapse by 2026-09-29.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3617, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-08T20:51:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-24", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:48.282583+00:00", "seal_sha256": "6430cc250184e7cba95b534fa721a1365e7a9413eac54666f8d799a215de7476" }, { "statement": "OFAC adds at least one additional Iran-program entity or individual to the SDN list, beyond the airlines sanctioned per 2026-09-08 reporting, between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-08.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "The US Treasury OFAC Specially Designated Nationals list shows a new Iran-program listing dated after 2026-09-08 and on or before 2026-10-08.", "deadline": "2026-10-12", "citations": [ 51 ], "failure_condition": "No new Iran-program SDN listing with a listing date in the window appears on the OFAC SDN list.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-08T20:51:46Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-25", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:48.282591+00:00", "seal_sha256": "472068154d1ae9bcf1e65a3d268a1603f9e0da18961d80ff9a4ae52f5729f042" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds CVE-2026-75650, the Adobe Commerce and Magento Open Source StyleSmuggler flaw patched 2026-09-07, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-29.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 70, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed at the deadline contains an entry with cveID CVE-2026-75650 and dateAdded between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-29 inclusive; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 12, 15 ], "failure_condition": "At the deadline the KEV catalog carries no entry for CVE-2026-75650 with a dateAdded on or before 2026-09-29.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-26", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:49.264436+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b5277bc54a4d85f6cf5705f2005de05de1dea57ee63db60c283bb5958b74e4d1" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds CVE-2026-44756 (SAP Kernel OVERPASS) or CVE-2026-58240 (SAP NetWeaver Message Server S4GET) with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-11-06.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 22, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed at the deadline contains an entry for CVE-2026-44756 or CVE-2026-58240 with dateAdded between 2026-09-08 and 2026-11-06 inclusive; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-11-10", "citations": [ 13 ], "failure_condition": "At the deadline the KEV catalog carries neither CVE-2026-44756 nor CVE-2026-58240 with a dateAdded on or before 2026-11-06.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-27", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:49.264457+00:00", "seal_sha256": "82cda31b535d19c688d16f3c1dc67d395ee078e0d6bc8517f0ae06d44beab957" }, { "statement": "The FRED series DCOILWTICO (WTI Cushing spot, dollars per barrel) prints at least one observation at or above 100.00 dated between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09. Reference: WTI 92.66 on the packet date per Section V.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 45, "resolution": "TRUE if any FRED DCOILWTICO observation dated 2026-09-09 through 2026-10-09 inclusive is at or above 100.00 as published at the deadline; FALSE if all such observations are below 100.00.", "deadline": "2026-10-14", "citations": [ 50, 98, 87 ], "failure_condition": "Every DCOILWTICO observation dated 2026-09-09 through 2026-10-09 is below 100.00.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-28", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:49.264469+00:00", "seal_sha256": "075098a2b66ceecb12d4acb984b4b63db74e1f2b812678cfebfc3568f08719d0" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-30, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announces that at least one Hungarian diplomat is expelled from Russia or declared persona non grata, following the Hungarian expulsion of 10 Russian diplomats reported 2026-09-08.", "domain": "political", "probability": 82, "resolution": "TRUE if a Russian MFA statement dated 2026-09-08 through 2026-09-30 announces expulsion or persona non grata status for at least one Hungarian diplomat, and Reuters or AFP reports it; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 72 ], "failure_condition": "No Hungarian diplomat is expelled from Russia or declared persona non grata by the Russian MFA on any date from 2026-09-08 through 2026-09-30.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-29", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:49.264478+00:00", "seal_sha256": "91e1a374c2614cbaf45b8eb44fb9aebadb4a25ae4c9a0ea351136b58f43e6aac" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-09 and 2026-11-30, French authorities announce at least one arrest or criminal charge of a suspect in the theft of Renoir paintings from the Musee Renoir in Cagnes-sur-Mer reported on 2026-09-08.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 50, "resolution": "TRUE if a French prosecution office or French police announce at least one arrest or charge in the Musee Renoir Cagnes-sur-Mer theft on a date 2026-09-09 through 2026-11-30, reported by AFP or Le Monde; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-12-03", "citations": [ 80, 94, 102 ], "failure_condition": "No arrest or criminal charge in the Musee Renoir theft is announced by French authorities on any date from 2026-09-09 through 2026-11-30.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-30", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "manual/fable-5.1/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:49.264487+00:00", "seal_sha256": "1e575feee083a0e145e8c65f0240a3415a46027be2b16d87db6dc324048a07a5" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds CVE-2026-75650, the Adobe Commerce and Magento Open Source StyleSmuggler flaw patched 2026-09-07, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-29.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed at the deadline contains an entry with cveID CVE-2026-75650 and dateAdded between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-29 inclusive; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 12, 15 ], "failure_condition": "At the deadline the KEV catalog carries no entry for CVE-2026-75650 with a dateAdded on or before 2026-09-29.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-08T20:51:49Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-31", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:50.378641+00:00", "seal_sha256": "e0ddf9e830d54e72ae23e99ba5b310f5cea3a57da1e9635946526416cd8577fe" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds CVE-2026-44756 (SAP Kernel OVERPASS) or CVE-2026-58240 (SAP NetWeaver Message Server S4GET) with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-11-06.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed at the deadline contains an entry for CVE-2026-44756 or CVE-2026-58240 with dateAdded between 2026-09-08 and 2026-11-06 inclusive; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-11-10", "citations": [ 13 ], "failure_condition": "At the deadline the KEV catalog carries neither CVE-2026-44756 nor CVE-2026-58240 with a dateAdded on or before 2026-11-06.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-08T20:51:49Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-32", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:50.378668+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b6d065a463b4cb92d474e8a086dea33e73b80ed694f81c830b3f229d5f4e490b" }, { "statement": "The FRED series DCOILWTICO (WTI Cushing spot, dollars per barrel) prints at least one observation at or above 100.00 dated between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09. Reference: WTI 92.66 on the packet date per Section V.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 21, "resolution": "TRUE if any FRED DCOILWTICO observation dated 2026-09-09 through 2026-10-09 inclusive is at or above 100.00 as published at the deadline; FALSE if all such observations are below 100.00.", "deadline": "2026-10-14", "citations": [ 50, 98, 87 ], "failure_condition": "Every DCOILWTICO observation dated 2026-09-09 through 2026-10-09 is below 100.00.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-08T20:51:49Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-33", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:50.378679+00:00", "seal_sha256": "da54b640106fdcac23914a37ae77e9c933bb489d4543d034dfda7e6ebfc6b63d" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-30, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announces that at least one Hungarian diplomat is expelled from Russia or declared persona non grata, following the Hungarian expulsion of 10 Russian diplomats reported 2026-09-08.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if a Russian MFA statement dated 2026-09-08 through 2026-09-30 announces expulsion or persona non grata status for at least one Hungarian diplomat, and Reuters or AFP reports it; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-10-02", "citations": [ 72 ], "failure_condition": "No Hungarian diplomat is expelled from Russia or declared persona non grata by the Russian MFA on any date from 2026-09-08 through 2026-09-30.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-08T20:51:49Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-34", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:50.378688+00:00", "seal_sha256": "243f3eb4dfa83beba0c0f62a561a366c2466f9e6bce7b9d04aa05dce07b3e2ca" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-09 and 2026-11-30, French authorities announce at least one arrest or criminal charge of a suspect in the theft of Renoir paintings from the Musee Renoir in Cagnes-sur-Mer reported on 2026-09-08.", "domain": "crime_security", "probability": 36, "resolution": "TRUE if a French prosecution office or French police announce at least one arrest or charge in the Musee Renoir Cagnes-sur-Mer theft on a date 2026-09-09 through 2026-11-30, reported by AFP or Le Monde; FALSE otherwise.", "deadline": "2026-12-03", "citations": [ 80, 94, 102 ], "failure_condition": "No arrest or criminal charge in the Musee Renoir theft is announced by French authorities on any date from 2026-09-09 through 2026-11-30.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3574, "n": 249, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-08T20:51:49Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-35", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:50.378698+00:00", "seal_sha256": "49cca499912ff38144370feeb2537bb71f2ecc403bd00a99f01492f12ecb8888" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry whose vendor or product field identifies Adobe Commerce or Magento, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 60, "resolution": "True if the CISA KEV JSON feed, fetched on the deadline, contains at least one entry with vendorProject or product matching Adobe Commerce or Magento and dateAdded between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09 inclusive; else false.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 12, 15 ], "failure_condition": "As of the deadline the KEV catalog contains no Adobe Commerce or Magento entry with dateAdded on or after 2026-09-08 and on or before 2026-10-09.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-36", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:51.376952+00:00", "seal_sha256": "df148a92de8801a1ff6192f23c01851de3a571bb5b3b593760bb6535b4d5cbae" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry for the SAP kernel vulnerability publicly designated OVERPASS, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-08.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "True if the CISA KEV feed on the deadline lists an SAP entry whose CVE is identified in SAP or CISA advisories under the OVERPASS designation, with dateAdded between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-08 inclusive; else false.", "deadline": "2026-12-11", "citations": [ 13 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry tied to the OVERPASS SAP vulnerability carries a dateAdded inside the 2026-09-08 to 2026-12-08 window as of the deadline.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-37", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:51.376975+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ead6e623aca749e8ed8493f174b178f9bd75b26c33c2520a6bf048d10b521082" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09. Reference: Brent 97.68 at packet seal on 2026-09-08.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 80, "resolution": "True if any official ICE Brent front-month daily settlement price between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09 inclusive is 100.00 USD or higher; else false. Reference level at seal: 97.68.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 50, 87, 98 ], "failure_condition": "Every ICE Brent front-month settlement from 2026-09-09 through 2026-10-09 prints below 100.00 USD.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-38", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:51.376986+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d0cfb4d70bfded5627ea3d37c876c778b1623114d0e76222956e9fcb5592a154" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09, Saudi authorities publicly acknowledge at least one Houthi missile or drone attack impacting or intercepted over Riyadh province.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 45, "resolution": "True if, for an attack occurring 2026-09-09 to 2026-10-09, Saudi official statements or state media acknowledge a Houthi projectile impacting or intercepted in Riyadh province, or two of Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC so report; else false.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 77, 87, 89 ], "failure_condition": "No Houthi projectile impacting or intercepted over Riyadh province between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09 is acknowledged by Saudi authorities or reported by two of the named wires.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-39", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:51.376995+00:00", "seal_sha256": "44e38e09f262a514a3a3c8535ee971426b1945f5560e5b92beb54e89ef1e7879" }, { "statement": "A ceasefire or cessation of hostilities covering the current United States and Iran conflict is publicly announced between 2026-09-09 and 2026-12-08 and confirmed by named officials of both governments.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "True if, between 2026-09-09 and 2026-12-08, named US and Iranian officials each publicly confirm a ceasefire or halt to hostilities between the two states, reported by two of Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC; else false.", "deadline": "2026-12-11", "citations": [ 64, 85, 88 ], "failure_condition": "By the end of 2026-12-08 no ceasefire or halt covering US-Iran hostilities has been confirmed by named officials of both governments.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-40", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:51.377004+00:00", "seal_sha256": "ddbd335b5d63b88653b9960bb4e6ffc168cea94ae0975f657312670092bc7694" }, { "statement": "A presidential document directing federal recognition or renaming of the state of New Mexico as New America is published in the Federal Register between 2026-09-09 and 2027-01-08.", "domain": "political", "probability": 15, "resolution": "True if the Federal Register publishes an executive order, proclamation, or memorandum directing federal use or recognition of the name New America for New Mexico, with publication date between 2026-09-09 and 2027-01-08; else false.", "deadline": "2027-01-12", "citations": [ 96, 100 ], "failure_condition": "No qualifying presidential document naming New America for New Mexico appears in the Federal Register within the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-41", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:51.377013+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a7b1931e89123f5a6b28b013af556543bf58e72aed69f5f38f48e44294669e2d" }, { "statement": "French police or prosecutors publicly announce an arrest, or the recovery of at least one stolen painting, in the Renoir Museum theft of early September 2026, between 2026-09-09 and 2027-02-26.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 50, "resolution": "True if, between 2026-09-09 and 2027-02-26, French authorities announce at least one arrest or one recovered painting in the Renoir Museum case, reported by two of Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC, Le Monde; else false.", "deadline": "2027-03-01", "citations": [ 80, 94, 102 ], "failure_condition": "As of the deadline neither an arrest nor a recovery in the Renoir Museum theft has been announced by French authorities within the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-42", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:51.377022+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d5d7eace01806cc9d59c7c74ad52c0e55887b283dd2a8dabf4df02e1b0f21f0f" }, { "statement": "The USGS earthquake catalog records at least one magnitude 5.0 or greater event within 150 km of USGS event us7000tdvt (the 2026-09-08 M6.3 near Nikolski, Alaska) with origin time between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 65, "resolution": "True if a USGS ComCat query on the deadline returns one or more events of magnitude 5.0 or greater within 150 km of event us7000tdvt with origin times between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09 inclusive; else false.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 36 ], "failure_condition": "The ComCat query returns zero events of magnitude 5.0 or greater in the stated radius and window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-43", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "manual/fable-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:51.377029+00:00", "seal_sha256": "feccc6b213f97a2529afef7a89ec0ddf64fed2e987d8d3716d45f43a5b92af74" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry whose vendor or product field identifies Adobe Commerce or Magento, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "True if the CISA KEV JSON feed, fetched on the deadline, contains at least one entry with vendorProject or product matching Adobe Commerce or Magento and dateAdded between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09 inclusive; else false.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 12, 15 ], "failure_condition": "As of the deadline the KEV catalog contains no Adobe Commerce or Magento entry with dateAdded on or after 2026-09-08 and on or before 2026-10-09.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-08T20:51:51Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-44", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:52.456091+00:00", "seal_sha256": "de88c29580289ac875c5fc3e44ae2613534179b121ce47e6406e371bee0e62bf" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry for the SAP kernel vulnerability publicly designated OVERPASS, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-08.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "True if the CISA KEV feed on the deadline lists an SAP entry whose CVE is identified in SAP or CISA advisories under the OVERPASS designation, with dateAdded between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-08 inclusive; else false.", "deadline": "2026-12-11", "citations": [ 13 ], "failure_condition": "No KEV entry tied to the OVERPASS SAP vulnerability carries a dateAdded inside the 2026-09-08 to 2026-12-08 window as of the deadline.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-08T20:51:51Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-45", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:52.456112+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3708b66f340607c20fb2445bdd7baafeb3c63f169e593c38237cb3f836cdbe25" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09. Reference: Brent 97.68 at packet seal on 2026-09-08.", "domain": "economics/markets", "probability": 21, "resolution": "True if any official ICE Brent front-month daily settlement price between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09 inclusive is 100.00 USD or higher; else false. Reference level at seal: 97.68.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 50, 87, 98 ], "failure_condition": "Every ICE Brent front-month settlement from 2026-09-09 through 2026-10-09 prints below 100.00 USD.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-08T20:51:51Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-46", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:52.456123+00:00", "seal_sha256": "cc3ff6b2c2f05a648845fae8628b6c957eabe0a4113d779cbb173f1169a133ac" }, { "statement": "Between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09, Saudi authorities publicly acknowledge at least one Houthi missile or drone attack impacting or intercepted over Riyadh province.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "True if, for an attack occurring 2026-09-09 to 2026-10-09, Saudi official statements or state media acknowledge a Houthi projectile impacting or intercepted in Riyadh province, or two of Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC so report; else false.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 77, 87, 89 ], "failure_condition": "No Houthi projectile impacting or intercepted over Riyadh province between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09 is acknowledged by Saudi authorities or reported by two of the named wires.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-08T20:51:51Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-47", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:52.456133+00:00", "seal_sha256": "4d355c979c3c99109dba21f6086d2dd1b249a43a45462ba06e687cbd2a267f5c" }, { "statement": "A ceasefire or cessation of hostilities covering the current United States and Iran conflict is publicly announced between 2026-09-09 and 2026-12-08 and confirmed by named officials of both governments.", "domain": "military/conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "True if, between 2026-09-09 and 2026-12-08, named US and Iranian officials each publicly confirm a ceasefire or halt to hostilities between the two states, reported by two of Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC; else false.", "deadline": "2026-12-11", "citations": [ 64, 85, 88 ], "failure_condition": "By the end of 2026-12-08 no ceasefire or halt covering US-Iran hostilities has been confirmed by named officials of both governments.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-08T20:51:51Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-48", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:52.456141+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a3276fb50239aa305c301338692fb5d52ff946c93128b65641588d7b938d4255" }, { "statement": "A presidential document directing federal recognition or renaming of the state of New Mexico as New America is published in the Federal Register between 2026-09-09 and 2027-01-08.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "True if the Federal Register publishes an executive order, proclamation, or memorandum directing federal use or recognition of the name New America for New Mexico, with publication date between 2026-09-09 and 2027-01-08; else false.", "deadline": "2027-01-12", "citations": [ 96, 100 ], "failure_condition": "No qualifying presidential document naming New America for New Mexico appears in the Federal Register within the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-08T20:51:51Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-49", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:52.456150+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b92b59b32f9647f34a2ae7844d61dedd1e57f696cfb0ff1522898f7fa6354770" }, { "statement": "French police or prosecutors publicly announce an arrest, or the recovery of at least one stolen painting, in the Renoir Museum theft of early September 2026, between 2026-09-09 and 2027-02-26.", "domain": "crime/security", "probability": 36, "resolution": "True if, between 2026-09-09 and 2027-02-26, French authorities announce at least one arrest or one recovered painting in the Renoir Museum case, reported by two of Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC, Le Monde; else false.", "deadline": "2027-03-01", "citations": [ 80, 94, 102 ], "failure_condition": "As of the deadline neither an arrest nor a recovery in the Renoir Museum theft has been announced by French authorities within the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3574, "n": 249, "basis": "global", "domain_canonical": "crime-security", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-08T20:51:51Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-50", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:52.456158+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3b0ab470bd03cb4cf96d415cd01c54c65ff8aba1dcb073b35fe163130e7e9559" }, { "statement": "The USGS earthquake catalog records at least one magnitude 5.0 or greater event within 150 km of USGS event us7000tdvt (the 2026-09-08 M6.3 near Nikolski, Alaska) with origin time between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09.", "domain": "disaster", "probability": 36, "resolution": "True if a USGS ComCat query on the deadline returns one or more events of magnitude 5.0 or greater within 150 km of event us7000tdvt with origin times between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09 inclusive; else false.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 36 ], "failure_condition": "The ComCat query returns zero events of magnitude 5.0 or greater in the stated radius and window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3617, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "disaster", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-08T20:51:51Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-51", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:52.456166+00:00", "seal_sha256": "00a40c2d0657c48056612297c4efce3ce9bee06a43b963fd46691127b9564ce5" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent front-month crude settles above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09. Reference: 97.68 on the packet date, 2026-09-08.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 80, "resolution": "TRUE if any ICE Brent front-month official settlement between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09 exceeds 100.00 USD per barrel. Reference level 97.68 on 2026-09-08.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 50, 87, 98 ], "failure_condition": "Every ICE Brent front-month settlement inside the window is 100.00 USD per barrel or lower.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-52", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:53.440672+00:00", "seal_sha256": "687062eda4123bf742998e118593cfe88c1cae9be9fcba671016f42732d620e8" }, { "statement": "The United States and Canada announce removal or suspension of at least one tranche of the reciprocal tariffs now in force, announced between 2026-09-09 and 2026-11-13.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 22, "resolution": "TRUE if a US or Canadian government announcement dated between 2026-09-09 and 2026-11-13 removes or suspends any tariff tranche applied to the other country.", "deadline": "2026-11-17", "citations": [ 67, 69, 70 ], "failure_condition": "No US or Canadian tariff tranche against the other country is removed or suspended by an announcement dated inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-53", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:53.440692+00:00", "seal_sha256": "055ff226bc44edbc8839b6106b946f8b5537a03c05e5251f8c361b6be4e3265a" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog carries at least one Adobe Commerce or Magento CVE with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 72, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed contains an Adobe Commerce or Magento entry whose dateAdded field falls between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 12, 15 ], "failure_condition": "No Adobe Commerce or Magento entry in the KEV catalog carries a dateAdded inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-54", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:53.440703+00:00", "seal_sha256": "a781e3fcd749dcafd0e33db360fee3ac16d3fdd6e4ed89bd42164f6756e77651" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog carries at least one SAP vendor CVE with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-09 and 2026-11-06.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 25, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed contains an entry with vendorProject SAP whose dateAdded field falls between 2026-09-09 and 2026-11-06 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-10", "citations": [ 13 ], "failure_condition": "No SAP entry in the KEV catalog carries a dateAdded inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-55", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:53.440713+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b6587897b751957537ef6f7faa3a693d869883445110d505a9af878b52a8bde0" }, { "statement": "Saudi Arabia conducts acknowledged military strikes on Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen between 2026-09-09 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 55, "resolution": "TRUE if two of Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC and Al Jazeera report Saudi strikes inside Houthi-held Yemen occurring in the window, with Saudi or Houthi attribution.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 77, 89, 92 ], "failure_condition": "No Saudi strike inside Houthi-held Yemen occurs within the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-56", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:53.440721+00:00", "seal_sha256": "5d4981ca1dafe49e19595456e835031324706af568aa08a866ca4ee2b48f4935" }, { "statement": "A ceasefire or cessation of hostilities involving Iran and the United States or Israel is publicly announced between 2026-09-09 and 2026-11-13.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if a government or the United Nations announces a ceasefire, truce or cessation of hostilities covering Iranian and US or Israeli forces, dated inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-11-17", "citations": [ 85, 88 ], "failure_condition": "No such ceasefire, truce or cessation of hostilities is announced inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-57", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:53.440728+00:00", "seal_sha256": "d6f0a1a5bead4605448d688f6e6c0fd7ca3eef17e73d91520d96994bf3ca09ec" }, { "statement": "Russia expels or declares persona non grata at least one Hungarian diplomat between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09.", "domain": "political", "probability": 45, "resolution": "TRUE if the Russian Foreign Ministry announces expulsion or persona non grata designation of one or more Hungarian diplomats, with the announcement dated inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 72 ], "failure_condition": "Russia takes no expulsion or persona non grata action against Hungarian diplomats inside the window.", "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-58", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "manual/opus-5/unattested", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:53.440735+00:00", "seal_sha256": "eec2a87bea1259433af66663991aab4e25c100d565b1b1844fce5a9bc77e2d7d" }, { "statement": "ICE Brent front-month crude settles above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09. Reference: 97.68 on the packet date, 2026-09-08.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 21, "resolution": "TRUE if any ICE Brent front-month official settlement between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09 exceeds 100.00 USD per barrel. Reference level 97.68 on 2026-09-08.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 50, 87, 98 ], "failure_condition": "Every ICE Brent front-month settlement inside the window is 100.00 USD per barrel or lower.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-08T20:51:53Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-59", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:54.518907+00:00", "seal_sha256": "3f42930b5fa9eeaacb67422016382ea4249442d6878a63a52642b360be8f1772" }, { "statement": "The United States and Canada announce removal or suspension of at least one tranche of the reciprocal tariffs now in force, announced between 2026-09-09 and 2026-11-13.", "domain": "economic", "probability": 21, "resolution": "TRUE if a US or Canadian government announcement dated between 2026-09-09 and 2026-11-13 removes or suspends any tariff tranche applied to the other country.", "deadline": "2026-11-17", "citations": [ 67, 69, 70 ], "failure_condition": "No US or Canadian tariff tranche against the other country is removed or suspended by an announcement dated inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2105, "n": 38, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "economics", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-08T20:51:53Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-60", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:54.518930+00:00", "seal_sha256": "dead16f3d21324e228c211c32a4008bce1b8c77e656c0ca50be951415414b6b8" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog carries at least one Adobe Commerce or Magento CVE with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed contains an Adobe Commerce or Magento entry whose dateAdded field falls between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 12, 15 ], "failure_condition": "No Adobe Commerce or Magento entry in the KEV catalog carries a dateAdded inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-08T20:51:53Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-61", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:54.518942+00:00", "seal_sha256": "97cfa44da12e43c00084b85b63ae80f3e26a16fdb719495dd2b9e257eb2610cc" }, { "statement": "The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog carries at least one SAP vendor CVE with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-09 and 2026-11-06.", "domain": "cyber", "probability": 30, "resolution": "TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed contains an entry with vendorProject SAP whose dateAdded field falls between 2026-09-09 and 2026-11-06 inclusive.", "deadline": "2026-11-10", "citations": [ 13 ], "failure_condition": "No SAP entry in the KEV catalog carries a dateAdded inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.2979, "n": 47, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "cyber", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-08T20:51:53Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-62", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:54.518950+00:00", "seal_sha256": "9732e4482fa7376e7efc31524764bc276c3571ab2b006900042b382009578147" }, { "statement": "Saudi Arabia conducts acknowledged military strikes on Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen between 2026-09-09 and 2026-09-30.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "TRUE if two of Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC and Al Jazeera report Saudi strikes inside Houthi-held Yemen occurring in the window, with Saudi or Houthi attribution.", "deadline": "2026-10-05", "citations": [ 77, 89, 92 ], "failure_condition": "No Saudi strike inside Houthi-held Yemen occurs within the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-08T20:51:53Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-63", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:54.518959+00:00", "seal_sha256": "b57394f8e3dc260af9ecd986ff7a791aff8a05cbc5d4549c899d38a77cfceb8a" }, { "statement": "A ceasefire or cessation of hostilities involving Iran and the United States or Israel is publicly announced between 2026-09-09 and 2026-11-13.", "domain": "military_conflict", "probability": 49, "resolution": "TRUE if a government or the United Nations announces a ceasefire, truce or cessation of hostilities covering Iranian and US or Israeli forces, dated inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-11-17", "citations": [ 85, 88 ], "failure_condition": "No such ceasefire, truce or cessation of hostilities is announced inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.4918, "n": 61, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "military", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-08T20:51:53Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-64", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:54.518967+00:00", "seal_sha256": "bcff83c910d2b5ae44616094c1dccee0741b21da2553ce9a0b15a7eafd82613e" }, { "statement": "Russia expels or declares persona non grata at least one Hungarian diplomat between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09.", "domain": "political", "probability": 35, "resolution": "TRUE if the Russian Foreign Ministry announces expulsion or persona non grata designation of one or more Hungarian diplomats, with the announcement dated inside the window.", "deadline": "2026-10-13", "citations": [ 72 ], "failure_condition": "Russia takes no expulsion or persona non grata action against Hungarian diplomats inside the window.", "control_basis": { "arm": "control/baserate", "rule": "climatological - same probability for every row drawn from the same reference class", "rate": 0.3542, "n": 48, "basis": "domain", "domain_canonical": "political", "min_domain_n": 10, "ledger_as_of": "2026-09-08T20:51:53Z", "history_cutoff": "none - all resolved rows", "clamped_to_gate_band": false, "note": "pre-registered before the outcome existed. This is the floor the forecaster arm must clear; it is not an attempt to be right." }, "is_control": true, "source_report": "battle_report_2026-09-08_1518.md", "rubric_hash": "bbdc779152ddea3a83ff3fa3e44d3d3c841a87649386f1269b34bee1ca3af05e", "id": "KKR-20260908-65", "date_issued": "2026-09-08", "model": "control/baserate", "source_packet": "kkr_packet_2026-09-08_1518.md", "status": "open", "resolved_date": null, "notes": "", "register": "registers/1.0@ce14b50ce884bbb4", "sealed_at": "2026-09-08T20:51:54.518974+00:00", "seal_sha256": "f43fcaa935cc19fd405510148a40c71b42e35055c7e2ffc023a75d23c26ab028" } ] }