{
 "_meta": {
  "generated": "2026-09-08T15:24:03Z",
  "instrument": "luecke/1.0",
  "source_render": "WARDESK_latest.md",
  "ledger_rows": 1693,
  "doctrine": "a Brier cannot see an uncalled event; this is the completeness assertion a forecasting ledger otherwise hides. Coverage is a denominator, not a score.",
  "matching": "generous - an anchor counts as named if its token or a known alias appears in any row's statement or resolution. Generous matching UNDERSTATES the gap, so every figure here is a floor.",
  "grade_a_confirmed": 2,
  "grade_a_gaps": 0,
  "grade_a_gap_rate_pct": 0.0,
  "grade_b_confirmed": 10,
  "grade_b_gaps": 1,
  "grade_b_gap_rate_pct": 10.0
 },
 "events": [
  {
   "anchor": "Kyiv",
   "zone": "Russia-Ukraine Theatre",
   "grade": "A",
   "rows_naming": [
    "KKR-20260806-10",
    "KKR-20260806-25",
    "KKR-20260808-07",
    "KKR-20260808-13",
    "KKR-20260808-18",
    "KKR-20260810-01",
    "KKR-20260811-10",
    "KKR-20260811-36",
    "KKR-20260816-03",
    "KKR-20260817-01",
    "KKR-20260817-06",
    "KKR-20260817-30"
   ],
   "n_rows": 55,
   "open_rows": 47,
   "arms": [
    "control/baserate",
    "lmstudio/auto",
    "lmstudio/realist",
    "manual/fable-5",
    "manual/fable-5.1/unattested",
    "manual/fable-5/unattested",
    "manual/opus-5",
    "manual/opus-5/unattested"
   ],
   "covered": true
  },
  {
   "anchor": "Moscow",
   "zone": "Russia-Ukraine Theatre",
   "grade": "A",
   "rows_naming": [
    "KKR-20260817-35",
    "KKR-20260817-54",
    "KKR-20260817-62",
    "KKR-20260902-55",
    "KKR-20260902-74",
    "KKR-20260904-15",
    "KKR-20260904-45",
    "KKR-20260906-02",
    "KKR-20260906-29"
   ],
   "n_rows": 9,
   "open_rows": 8,
   "arms": [
    "control/baserate",
    "lmstudio/auto",
    "manual/fable-5/unattested",
    "manual/opus-5/unattested",
    "manual/sonnet-5/unattested"
   ],
   "covered": true
  },
  {
   "anchor": "Kyiv",
   "zone": "Russia-Ukraine Theatre",
   "grade": "B",
   "rows_naming": [
    "KKR-20260806-10",
    "KKR-20260806-25",
    "KKR-20260808-07",
    "KKR-20260808-13",
    "KKR-20260808-18",
    "KKR-20260810-01",
    "KKR-20260811-10",
    "KKR-20260811-36",
    "KKR-20260816-03",
    "KKR-20260817-01",
    "KKR-20260817-06",
    "KKR-20260817-30"
   ],
   "n_rows": 55,
   "open_rows": 47,
   "arms": [
    "control/baserate",
    "lmstudio/auto",
    "lmstudio/realist",
    "manual/fable-5",
    "manual/fable-5.1/unattested",
    "manual/fable-5/unattested",
    "manual/opus-5",
    "manual/opus-5/unattested"
   ],
   "covered": true
  },
  {
   "anchor": "Moscow",
   "zone": "Russia-Ukraine Theatre",
   "grade": "B",
   "rows_naming": [
    "KKR-20260817-35",
    "KKR-20260817-54",
    "KKR-20260817-62",
    "KKR-20260902-55",
    "KKR-20260902-74",
    "KKR-20260904-15",
    "KKR-20260904-45",
    "KKR-20260906-02",
    "KKR-20260906-29"
   ],
   "n_rows": 9,
   "open_rows": 8,
   "arms": [
    "control/baserate",
    "lmstudio/auto",
    "manual/fable-5/unattested",
    "manual/opus-5/unattested",
    "manual/sonnet-5/unattested"
   ],
   "covered": true
  },
  {
   "anchor": "Gaza City",
   "zone": "Israel-Gaza-Levant Theatre",
   "grade": "B",
   "rows_naming": [
    "KKR-20260727-15",
    "KKR-20260727-24",
    "KKR-20260731-06",
    "KKR-20260731-11",
    "KKR-20260731-21",
    "KKR-20260802-08",
    "KKR-20260804-17",
    "KKR-20260804-26",
    "KKR-20260804-33",
    "KKR-20260804-42",
    "KKR-20260809-10",
    "KKR-20260810-20"
   ],
   "n_rows": 24,
   "open_rows": 17,
   "arms": [
    "control/baserate",
    "lmstudio/auto",
    "manual/fable",
    "manual/fable-5",
    "manual/opus-5",
    "manual/opus-5/unattested",
    "manual/sonnet-5",
    "manual/sonnet-5/unattested"
   ],
   "covered": true
  },
  {
   "anchor": "Nablus",
   "zone": "Israel-Gaza-Levant Theatre",
   "grade": "B",
   "rows_naming": [
    "KKR-20260817-37"
   ],
   "n_rows": 1,
   "open_rows": 0,
   "arms": [
    "lmstudio/auto"
   ],
   "covered": true
  },
  {
   "anchor": "Tehran",
   "zone": "Iran Theatre",
   "grade": "B",
   "rows_naming": [
    "KKR-20260819-04"
   ],
   "n_rows": 1,
   "open_rows": 0,
   "arms": [
    "lmstudio/auto"
   ],
   "covered": true
  },
  {
   "anchor": "Crimea",
   "zone": "Russia-Ukraine Theatre",
   "grade": "B",
   "rows_naming": [
    "KKR-20260804-01",
    "KKR-20260804-09"
   ],
   "n_rows": 2,
   "open_rows": 0,
   "arms": [
    "control/baserate",
    "lmstudio/auto"
   ],
   "covered": true
  },
  {
   "anchor": "Kursk",
   "zone": "Russia-Ukraine Theatre",
   "grade": "B",
   "rows_naming": [
    "KKR-20260823-05"
   ],
   "n_rows": 1,
   "open_rows": 1,
   "arms": [
    "lmstudio/auto"
   ],
   "covered": true
  },
  {
   "anchor": "Jerusalem",
   "zone": "Israel-Gaza-Levant Theatre",
   "grade": "B",
   "rows_naming": [],
   "n_rows": 0,
   "open_rows": 0,
   "arms": [],
   "covered": false
  },
  {
   "anchor": "Khan Younis",
   "zone": "Israel-Gaza-Levant Theatre",
   "grade": "B",
   "rows_naming": [
    "KKR-20260817-33",
    "KKR-20260826-01"
   ],
   "n_rows": 2,
   "open_rows": 1,
   "arms": [
    "lmstudio/auto"
   ],
   "covered": true
  },
  {
   "anchor": "Donetsk",
   "zone": "Russia-Ukraine Theatre",
   "grade": "B",
   "rows_naming": [
    "KKR-20260808-01"
   ],
   "n_rows": 1,
   "open_rows": 0,
   "arms": [
    "lmstudio/auto"
   ],
   "covered": true
  }
 ],
 "trend": {
  "note": "each render matched only against rows sealed on or before its own date (date_issued) - the book as it stood. An earlier in-session series compared renders against the full current book; that was anachronistic and overstated historical coverage. Corrected here.",
  "series": [
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-07-24_2104.md",
    "as_of": "2026-07-24",
    "a_confirmed": 1,
    "a_gaps": 1,
    "b_confirmed": 3,
    "b_gaps": 3
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-07-24_2128.md",
    "as_of": "2026-07-24",
    "a_confirmed": 2,
    "a_gaps": 2,
    "b_confirmed": 9,
    "b_gaps": 9
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-07-24_2144.md",
    "as_of": "2026-07-24",
    "a_confirmed": 2,
    "a_gaps": 2,
    "b_confirmed": 9,
    "b_gaps": 9
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-07-24_2147.md",
    "as_of": "2026-07-24",
    "a_confirmed": 1,
    "a_gaps": 1,
    "b_confirmed": 11,
    "b_gaps": 11
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-07-24_2203.md",
    "as_of": "2026-07-24",
    "a_confirmed": 1,
    "a_gaps": 1,
    "b_confirmed": 11,
    "b_gaps": 11
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-07-24_2231.md",
    "as_of": "2026-07-24",
    "a_confirmed": 1,
    "a_gaps": 1,
    "b_confirmed": 10,
    "b_gaps": 10
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-07-28_0212.md",
    "as_of": "2026-07-28",
    "a_confirmed": 1,
    "a_gaps": 1,
    "b_confirmed": 8,
    "b_gaps": 8
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-07-30_0439.md",
    "as_of": "2026-07-30",
    "a_confirmed": 1,
    "a_gaps": 1,
    "b_confirmed": 8,
    "b_gaps": 8
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-07-30_0512.md",
    "as_of": "2026-07-30",
    "a_confirmed": 1,
    "a_gaps": 1,
    "b_confirmed": 8,
    "b_gaps": 8
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-07-30_0706.md",
    "as_of": "2026-07-30",
    "a_confirmed": 3,
    "a_gaps": 2,
    "b_confirmed": 7,
    "b_gaps": 6
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-07-30_0745.md",
    "as_of": "2026-07-30",
    "a_confirmed": 4,
    "a_gaps": 3,
    "b_confirmed": 8,
    "b_gaps": 8
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-02_1912.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-02",
    "a_confirmed": 2,
    "a_gaps": 1,
    "b_confirmed": 9,
    "b_gaps": 8
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-03_1423.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-03",
    "a_confirmed": 3,
    "a_gaps": 2,
    "b_confirmed": 10,
    "b_gaps": 9
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-03_2318.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-03",
    "a_confirmed": 1,
    "a_gaps": 1,
    "b_confirmed": 11,
    "b_gaps": 10
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-03_2349.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-03",
    "a_confirmed": 1,
    "a_gaps": 1,
    "b_confirmed": 12,
    "b_gaps": 11
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-03_2349_2.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-03",
    "a_confirmed": 1,
    "a_gaps": 1,
    "b_confirmed": 12,
    "b_gaps": 11
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-03_2349_3.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-03",
    "a_confirmed": 1,
    "a_gaps": 1,
    "b_confirmed": 12,
    "b_gaps": 11
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-06_0424.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-06",
    "a_confirmed": 0,
    "a_gaps": 0,
    "b_confirmed": 3,
    "b_gaps": 3
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-07_1745.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "a_confirmed": 1,
    "a_gaps": 1,
    "b_confirmed": 7,
    "b_gaps": 5
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-08_1516.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-08",
    "a_confirmed": 1,
    "a_gaps": 0,
    "b_confirmed": 10,
    "b_gaps": 6
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-09_1514.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-09",
    "a_confirmed": 2,
    "a_gaps": 1,
    "b_confirmed": 10,
    "b_gaps": 6
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-10_1514.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-10",
    "a_confirmed": 1,
    "a_gaps": 0,
    "b_confirmed": 8,
    "b_gaps": 6
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-11_1749.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-11",
    "a_confirmed": 2,
    "a_gaps": 1,
    "b_confirmed": 13,
    "b_gaps": 9
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-12_1516.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-12",
    "a_confirmed": 3,
    "a_gaps": 3,
    "b_confirmed": 13,
    "b_gaps": 9
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-13_1517.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-13",
    "a_confirmed": 1,
    "a_gaps": 1,
    "b_confirmed": 15,
    "b_gaps": 8
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-14_1515.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-14",
    "a_confirmed": 1,
    "a_gaps": 1,
    "b_confirmed": 12,
    "b_gaps": 7
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-15_1724.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-15",
    "a_confirmed": 0,
    "a_gaps": 0,
    "b_confirmed": 9,
    "b_gaps": 5
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-16_1515.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-16",
    "a_confirmed": 3,
    "a_gaps": 2,
    "b_confirmed": 9,
    "b_gaps": 8
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-17_1535.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-17",
    "a_confirmed": 3,
    "a_gaps": 0,
    "b_confirmed": 9,
    "b_gaps": 4
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-18_1514.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-18",
    "a_confirmed": 3,
    "a_gaps": 1,
    "b_confirmed": 11,
    "b_gaps": 5
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-19_1517.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-19",
    "a_confirmed": 4,
    "a_gaps": 0,
    "b_confirmed": 10,
    "b_gaps": 2
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-20_1534.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-20",
    "a_confirmed": 4,
    "a_gaps": 1,
    "b_confirmed": 5,
    "b_gaps": 1
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-21_1523.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-21",
    "a_confirmed": 3,
    "a_gaps": 2,
    "b_confirmed": 16,
    "b_gaps": 5
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-22_1514.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-22",
    "a_confirmed": 2,
    "a_gaps": 1,
    "b_confirmed": 13,
    "b_gaps": 5
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-23_1514.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-23",
    "a_confirmed": 1,
    "a_gaps": 0,
    "b_confirmed": 14,
    "b_gaps": 4
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-24_1530.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-24",
    "a_confirmed": 3,
    "a_gaps": 0,
    "b_confirmed": 16,
    "b_gaps": 6
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-25_1515.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-25",
    "a_confirmed": 6,
    "a_gaps": 1,
    "b_confirmed": 9,
    "b_gaps": 4
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-26_1535.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-26",
    "a_confirmed": 4,
    "a_gaps": 1,
    "b_confirmed": 10,
    "b_gaps": 5
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-27_1516.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-27",
    "a_confirmed": 2,
    "a_gaps": 0,
    "b_confirmed": 7,
    "b_gaps": 2
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-28_1516.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-28",
    "a_confirmed": 4,
    "a_gaps": 1,
    "b_confirmed": 15,
    "b_gaps": 4
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-29_1534.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-29",
    "a_confirmed": 2,
    "a_gaps": 0,
    "b_confirmed": 9,
    "b_gaps": 3
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-30_1514.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-30",
    "a_confirmed": 2,
    "a_gaps": 0,
    "b_confirmed": 16,
    "b_gaps": 7
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-08-31_1517.md",
    "as_of": "2026-08-31",
    "a_confirmed": 4,
    "a_gaps": 0,
    "b_confirmed": 9,
    "b_gaps": 5
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-09-01_1517.md",
    "as_of": "2026-09-01",
    "a_confirmed": 3,
    "a_gaps": 0,
    "b_confirmed": 8,
    "b_gaps": 3
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-09-02_1519.md",
    "as_of": "2026-09-02",
    "a_confirmed": 3,
    "a_gaps": 2,
    "b_confirmed": 9,
    "b_gaps": 2
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-09-03_1516.md",
    "as_of": "2026-09-03",
    "a_confirmed": 2,
    "a_gaps": 0,
    "b_confirmed": 12,
    "b_gaps": 2
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-09-04_1516.md",
    "as_of": "2026-09-04",
    "a_confirmed": 5,
    "a_gaps": 1,
    "b_confirmed": 14,
    "b_gaps": 5
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-09-05_1515.md",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "a_confirmed": 2,
    "a_gaps": 0,
    "b_confirmed": 10,
    "b_gaps": 4
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-09-06_1516.md",
    "as_of": "2026-09-06",
    "a_confirmed": 2,
    "a_gaps": 0,
    "b_confirmed": 12,
    "b_gaps": 6
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-09-07_1516.md",
    "as_of": "2026-09-07",
    "a_confirmed": 2,
    "a_gaps": 0,
    "b_confirmed": 11,
    "b_gaps": 2
   },
   {
    "render": "WARDESK_2026-09-08_1516.md",
    "as_of": "2026-09-08",
    "a_confirmed": 2,
    "a_gaps": 0,
    "b_confirmed": 10,
    "b_gaps": 1
   }
  ]
 }
}