The Method
Most prediction claims are told after the fact, from memory, by the person who benefits from the telling. The audit removes every one of those outs. A forecast here is written down, given a probability and a deadline, and cryptographically sealed before any outcome exists. When the deadline passes, an adjudicator who sees neither the forecaster nor the stated probability rules on the evidence. The result — hit or miss — goes on the record and never comes off.
“What feels true is a hypothesis. The world is the only referee.”
The night is the condition, not the excuse. Everyone forecasts in fog; the question is whether you kept the score.
The full definition is sealed in commit history: RETRO_PRESCIENT_AUDIT.md
- Sealed before the outcome. Every projection is hashed into a commitment the day it is issued. Editing, softening, or deleting a forecast breaks the seal for the entire set.
- Falsifiable as written. A stranger reading only the statement must be able to say happened or didn't. Anything that resolves however you feel about it is rejected at the gate.
- Blind adjudication. The adjudicator sees neither forecaster nor stated probability, must cite evidence, and may return ambiguous.
- The record keeps its misses. Hits and misses publish together, permanently. A ledger that can shed its failures is a marketing document.
- Under thirty resolutions, the score is noise. The ledger says so on its own face until the record is deep enough to mean something.
The Instruments
The Record
This is an instrument being tested in public, not a validated one. Under thirty resolved predictions the score is noise — and the ledger says so on its own face. The record currently shows the machine missing more than it hits.
That number is the credential. A desk that prints its own bad news is the only kind whose good news means anything.
Consistency is not correctness — resolution is.