Kalibrierwarte

control/baserate

issued 1679 - open 1296 - resolved 351 - 216 hit / 135 miss - Brier 0.316 - base rate 0.615 - climatological 0.237 - skill -0.337

26 of 351 resolved rows predate the rubric commitment - drift comparison anchors at the first hashed row

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	351	216	0.316	-0.337	37 row(s) with defective citations
keyless	0	-	-	-	no resolved rows

bin	n	mean p	observed
10-20	7	0.169	1.0
20-30	131	0.252	0.557
30-40	127	0.331	0.583
40-50	33	0.463	0.818
50-60	48	0.529	0.667
60-70	5	0.622	0.6

fogsim/scenario

era registered - 1 issued, 1 open, nothing resolved yet. Printed rather than omitted; a hole the register discloses.

kfk/halflife

issued 10 - open 1 - resolved 9 - 0 hit / 9 miss - Brier 0.25 - base rate 0.0 - climatological 0.0

insufficient n (9<10) - printed, not hidden

9 of 9 resolved rows predate the rubric commitment - drift comparison anchors at the first hashed row

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	9	0	0.25	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden
keyless	0	-	-	-	no resolved rows

bin	n	mean p	observed
50-60	9	0.5	0.0

lmstudio/auto[post-verbot]

issued 20 - open 11 - resolved 9 - 1 hit / 8 miss - Brier 0.146 - base rate 0.111 - climatological 0.099

insufficient n (9<10) - printed, not hidden

9 of 9 resolved rows predate the rubric commitment - drift comparison anchors at the first hashed row

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	6	1	0.162	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden; 5 row(s) with defective citations
keyless	3	0	0.113	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden; 1 row(s) with defective citations

bin	n	mean p	observed
20-30	3	0.25	n<5
30-40	4	0.3	n<5
40-50	2	0.425	n<5

lmstudio/auto[post-window]

issued 466 - open 225 - resolved 231 - 70 hit / 161 miss - Brier 0.211 - base rate 0.303 - climatological 0.211 - skill -0.001

28 of 231 resolved rows predate the rubric commitment - drift comparison anchors at the first hashed row

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	223	69	0.213	0.002	70 row(s) with defective citations
keyless	6	1	0.137	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden; 1 row(s) with defective citations
undetermined	2	resolved with no determination - KEYED by rule (RPAS 4.03)

bin	n	mean p	observed
0-10	1	0.05	n<5
10-20	16	0.156	0.125
20-30	77	0.236	0.195
30-40	82	0.326	0.378
40-50	30	0.428	0.4
50-60	5	0.52	0.2
60-70	10	0.635	0.6
70-80	3	0.7	n<5
80-90	4	0.85	n<5
90-100	3	0.917	n<5

lmstudio/auto[pre-verbot]

issued 60 - open 3 - resolved 49 - 13 hit / 36 miss - Brier 0.212 - base rate 0.265 - climatological 0.195 - skill -0.086

49 of 49 resolved rows predate the rubric commitment - drift comparison anchors at the first hashed row

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	14	5	0.217	0.054	1 row(s) with defective citations
keyless	12	2	0.175	-0.263
undetermined	23	resolved with no determination - KEYED by rule (RPAS 4.03)

bin	n	mean p	observed
10-20	1	0.15	n<5
20-30	11	0.236	0.182
30-40	19	0.324	0.263
40-50	10	0.415	0.4
50-60	4	0.525	n<5
60-70	3	0.633	n<5
70-80	1	0.7	n<5

lmstudio/qwen36

issued 104 - open 103 - resolved 1 - 1 hit / 0 miss - Brier 0.722 - base rate 1.0 - climatological 0.0

insufficient n (1<10) - printed, not hidden

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	1	1	0.722	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden; 1 row(s) with defective citations
keyless	0	-	-	-	no resolved rows

bin	n	mean p	observed
10-20	1	0.15	n<5

lmstudio/qwen36-abliterated

era registered - 105 issued, 105 open, nothing resolved yet. Printed rather than omitted; a hole the register discloses.

lmstudio/qwen36-realist

issued 113 - open 106 - resolved 7 - 3 hit / 4 miss - Brier 0.297 - base rate 0.429 - climatological 0.245

insufficient n (7<10) - printed, not hidden

frame: 113 rows under the frame in force 442300f131b11b7c

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	7	3	0.297	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden; 1 row(s) with defective citations
keyless	0	-	-	-	no resolved rows

bin	n	mean p	observed
10-20	1	0.15	n<5
20-30	1	0.25	n<5
30-40	2	0.325	n<5
40-50	2	0.425	n<5
60-70	1	0.65	n<5

lmstudio/realist

issued 242 - open 155 - resolved 86 - 49 hit / 37 miss - Brier 0.321 - base rate 0.57 - climatological 0.245 - skill -0.311

frame: 182 rows under the frame in force 442300f131b11b7c; 60 rows under an earlier frame text 7b96df749db5034b - pre-revision class, printed here, outside the H6 population (registration Section 15)

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	86	49	0.321	-0.311	39 row(s) with defective citations
keyless	0	-	-	-	no resolved rows

bin	n	mean p	observed
10-20	6	0.155	0.5
20-30	29	0.23	0.586
30-40	36	0.32	0.528
40-50	11	0.432	0.636
50-60	2	0.525	n<5
60-70	1	0.6	n<5
80-90	1	0.85	n<5

manual/fable

issued 45 - open 18 - resolved 27 - 14 hit / 13 miss - Brier 0.18 - base rate 0.519 - climatological 0.25 - skill 0.279

27 of 27 resolved rows predate the rubric commitment - drift comparison anchors at the first hashed row

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	16	10	0.179	0.238	2 row(s) with defective citations
keyless	11	4	0.182	0.213	2 row(s) with defective citations

bin	n	mean p	observed
10-20	2	0.165	n<5
20-30	6	0.232	0.0
30-40	4	0.34	n<5
40-50	6	0.42	0.833
50-60	3	0.533	n<5
60-70	4	0.637	n<5
70-80	1	0.7	n<5
80-90	1	0.8	n<5

manual/fable-5

issued 38 - open 15 - resolved 23 - 13 hit / 10 miss - Brier 0.17 - base rate 0.565 - climatological 0.246 - skill 0.307

17 of 23 resolved rows predate the rubric commitment - drift comparison anchors at the first hashed row

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	17	10	0.144	0.406
keyless	6	3	0.245	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden; 1 row(s) with defective citations

bin	n	mean p	observed
0-10	1	0.08	n<5
10-20	1	0.15	n<5
20-30	5	0.244	0.6
30-40	4	0.312	n<5
40-50	4	0.425	n<5
50-60	1	0.55	n<5
60-70	2	0.65	n<5
80-90	2	0.865	n<5
90-100	3	0.907	n<5

manual/fable-5.1/unattested

issued 413 - open 332 - resolved 73 - 47 hit / 26 miss - Brier 0.233 - base rate 0.644 - climatological 0.229 - skill -0.015

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	57	37	0.242	-0.062	13 row(s) with defective citations
keyless	16	10	0.2	0.148

bin	n	mean p	observed
0-10	2	0.08	n<5
10-20	8	0.14	0.5
20-30	5	0.246	0.0
30-40	9	0.317	0.556
40-50	17	0.422	0.588
50-60	10	0.537	0.8
60-70	5	0.63	1.0
70-80	6	0.725	0.833
80-90	5	0.834	0.6
90-100	6	0.908	1.0

manual/fable-5/unattested

issued 258 - open 165 - resolved 84 - 57 hit / 27 miss - Brier 0.193 - base rate 0.679 - climatological 0.218 - skill 0.116

3 of 84 resolved rows predate the rubric commitment - drift comparison anchors at the first hashed row

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	76	53	0.196	0.072	6 row(s) with defective citations
keyless	8	4	0.165	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden

bin	n	mean p	observed
10-20	2	0.1	n<5
20-30	8	0.237	0.5
30-40	14	0.307	0.286
40-50	12	0.417	0.667
50-60	5	0.53	1.0
60-70	13	0.631	0.769
70-80	8	0.735	0.875
80-90	14	0.834	0.786
90-100	8	0.911	1.0

manual/opus-5

issued 74 - open 42 - resolved 32 - 15 hit / 17 miss - Brier 0.204 - base rate 0.469 - climatological 0.249 - skill 0.182

27 of 32 resolved rows predate the rubric commitment - drift comparison anchors at the first hashed row

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	25	12	0.204	0.183	3 row(s) with defective citations
keyless	7	3	0.203	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden; 1 row(s) with defective citations

bin	n	mean p	observed
10-20	2	0.15	n<5
20-30	4	0.23	n<5
30-40	4	0.32	n<5
40-50	8	0.439	0.5
50-60	4	0.538	n<5
60-70	2	0.625	n<5
70-80	3	0.76	n<5
80-90	5	0.844	0.8

manual/opus-5.5/unattested

issued 245 - open 234 - resolved 11 - 5 hit / 6 miss - Brier 0.362 - base rate 0.455 - climatological 0.248 - skill -0.46

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	7	3	0.396	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden
keyless	4	2	0.303	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden

bin	n	mean p	observed
30-40	3	0.333	n<5
50-60	1	0.5	n<5
60-70	2	0.625	n<5
70-80	2	0.74	n<5
80-90	3	0.84	n<5

manual/opus-5/unattested

issued 326 - open 247 - resolved 69 - 48 hit / 21 miss - Brier 0.195 - base rate 0.696 - climatological 0.212 - skill 0.078

13 of 69 resolved rows predate the rubric commitment - drift comparison anchors at the first hashed row

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	56	42	0.198	-0.053	16 row(s) with defective citations
keyless	13	6	0.186	0.253

bin	n	mean p	observed
0-10	1	0.07	n<5
20-30	8	0.246	0.25
30-40	9	0.317	0.444
40-50	11	0.434	0.818
50-60	10	0.545	0.7
60-70	9	0.624	0.778
70-80	9	0.723	0.889
80-90	11	0.836	0.909
90-100	1	0.9	n<5

manual/sonnet-5

issued 45 - open 4 - resolved 40 - 22 hit / 18 miss - Brier 0.256 - base rate 0.55 - climatological 0.247 - skill -0.033

28 of 40 resolved rows predate the rubric commitment - drift comparison anchors at the first hashed row

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	38	21	0.255	-0.032	1 row(s) with defective citations
keyless	2	1	0.265	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden

bin	n	mean p	observed
0-10	1	0.07	n<5
10-20	4	0.155	n<5
20-30	5	0.244	0.4
30-40	8	0.32	0.625
40-50	7	0.439	0.571
50-60	6	0.557	0.667
60-70	5	0.624	0.6
70-80	1	0.74	n<5
80-90	2	0.825	n<5
90-100	1	0.92	n<5

manual/sonnet-5.5/unattested

issued 196 - open 193 - resolved 3 - 3 hit / 0 miss - Brier 0.009 - base rate 1.0 - climatological 0.0

insufficient n (3<10) - printed, not hidden

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	1	1	0.014	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden
keyless	2	2	0.007	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden

bin	n	mean p	observed
80-90	1	0.88	n<5
90-100	2	0.92	n<5

manual/sonnet-5/unattested

issued 342 - open 179 - resolved 158 - 83 hit / 75 miss - Brier 0.251 - base rate 0.525 - climatological 0.249 - skill -0.006

16 of 158 resolved rows predate the rubric commitment - drift comparison anchors at the first hashed row

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	131	70	0.253	-0.018	13 row(s) with defective citations
keyless	27	13	0.24	0.038

bin	n	mean p	observed
0-10	5	0.074	0.2
10-20	22	0.151	0.318
20-30	26	0.239	0.308
30-40	30	0.332	0.633
40-50	22	0.434	0.636
50-60	23	0.547	0.652
60-70	12	0.636	0.583
70-80	9	0.754	0.556
80-90	5	0.84	0.6
90-100	4	0.907	n<5

operator/human

issued 10 - open 5 - resolved 2 - 1 hit / 1 miss - Brier 0.186 - base rate 0.5 - climatological 0.25

insufficient n (2<10) - printed, not hidden

2 of 2 resolved rows predate the rubric commitment - drift comparison anchors at the first hashed row

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	0	-	-	-	no resolved rows
keyless	2	1	0.186	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden

bin	n	mean p	observed
50-60	1	0.5	n<5
60-70	1	0.65	n<5