Kalibrierwarte

control/baserate

issued 537 - open 509 - resolved 28 - 14 hit / 14 miss - Brier 0.297 - base rate 0.5 - climatological 0.25 - skill -0.187

16 of 28 resolved rows predate the rubric commitment - drift comparison anchors at the first hashed row

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	28	14	0.297	-0.187	1 row(s) with defective citations
keyless	0	-	-	-	no resolved rows

bin	n	mean p	observed
20-30	17	0.25	0.412
30-40	10	0.328	0.7
50-60	1	0.5	n<5

kfk/halflife

issued 10 - open 9 - resolved 1 - 0 hit / 1 miss - Brier 0.25 - base rate 0.0 - climatological 0.0

insufficient n (1<10) - printed, not hidden

1 of 1 resolved rows predate the rubric commitment - drift comparison anchors at the first hashed row

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	1	0	0.25	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden
keyless	0	-	-	-	no resolved rows

bin	n	mean p	observed
50-60	1	0.5	n<5

lmstudio/auto[post-verbot]

issued 20 - open 16 - resolved 4 - 1 hit / 3 miss - Brier 0.183 - base rate 0.25 - climatological 0.188

insufficient n (4<10) - printed, not hidden

4 of 4 resolved rows predate the rubric commitment - drift comparison anchors at the first hashed row

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	3	1	0.214	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden; 2 row(s) with defective citations
keyless	1	0	0.09	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden; 1 row(s) with defective citations

bin	n	mean p	observed
20-30	1	0.25	n<5
30-40	3	0.3	n<5

lmstudio/auto[post-window]

issued 235 - open 147 - resolved 83 - 15 hit / 68 miss - Brier 0.183 - base rate 0.181 - climatological 0.148 - skill -0.234

21 of 83 resolved rows predate the rubric commitment - drift comparison anchors at the first hashed row

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	78	14	0.184	-0.251	24 row(s) with defective citations
keyless	5	1	0.158	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden

bin	n	mean p	observed
10-20	6	0.152	0.0
20-30	25	0.236	0.08
30-40	29	0.324	0.207
40-50	10	0.43	0.3
50-60	2	0.525	n<5
60-70	5	0.62	0.6
70-80	3	0.7	n<5
80-90	2	0.85	n<5
90-100	1	0.9	n<5

lmstudio/auto[pre-verbot]

issued 60 - open 6 - resolved 46 - 13 hit / 33 miss - Brier 0.22 - base rate 0.283 - climatological 0.203 - skill -0.085

46 of 46 resolved rows predate the rubric commitment - drift comparison anchors at the first hashed row

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	13	5	0.227	0.041
keyless	10	2	0.194	-0.214
undetermined	23	resolved with no determination - KEYED by rule (RPAS 4.03)

bin	n	mean p	observed
10-20	1	0.15	n<5
20-30	10	0.24	0.2
30-40	17	0.324	0.294
40-50	10	0.415	0.4
50-60	4	0.525	n<5
60-70	3	0.633	n<5
70-80	1	0.7	n<5

manual/fable

issued 45 - open 29 - resolved 16 - 9 hit / 7 miss - Brier 0.186 - base rate 0.562 - climatological 0.246 - skill 0.244

16 of 16 resolved rows predate the rubric commitment - drift comparison anchors at the first hashed row

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	9	7	0.22	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden
keyless	7	2	0.143	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden; 2 row(s) with defective citations

bin	n	mean p	observed
20-30	3	0.24	n<5
30-40	2	0.325	n<5
40-50	5	0.424	0.8
50-60	2	0.525	n<5
60-70	2	0.61	n<5
70-80	1	0.7	n<5
80-90	1	0.8	n<5

manual/fable-5

issued 38 - open 32 - resolved 6 - 4 hit / 2 miss - Brier 0.07 - base rate 0.667 - climatological 0.222

insufficient n (6<10) - printed, not hidden

4 of 6 resolved rows predate the rubric commitment - drift comparison anchors at the first hashed row

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	5	4	0.065	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden
keyless	1	0	0.09	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden

bin	n	mean p	observed
20-30	1	0.25	n<5
30-40	1	0.3	n<5
60-70	2	0.65	n<5
90-100	2	0.9	n<5

manual/fable-5/unattested

issued 188 - open 186 - resolved 2 - 2 hit / 0 miss - Brier 0.225 - base rate 1.0 - climatological 0.0

insufficient n (2<10) - printed, not hidden

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	2	2	0.225	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden
keyless	0	-	-	-	no resolved rows

bin	n	mean p	observed
40-50	1	0.4	n<5
70-80	1	0.7	n<5

manual/opus-5

issued 74 - open 65 - resolved 9 - 2 hit / 7 miss - Brier 0.213 - base rate 0.222 - climatological 0.173

insufficient n (9<10) - printed, not hidden

8 of 9 resolved rows predate the rubric commitment - drift comparison anchors at the first hashed row

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	8	2	0.235	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden; 2 row(s) with defective citations
keyless	1	0	0.032	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden

bin	n	mean p	observed
10-20	1	0.18	n<5
20-30	3	0.24	n<5
30-40	1	0.35	n<5
40-50	2	0.425	n<5
50-60	1	0.5	n<5
80-90	1	0.82	n<5

manual/opus-5/unattested

issued 206 - open 200 - resolved 6 - 4 hit / 2 miss - Brier 0.157 - base rate 0.667 - climatological 0.222

insufficient n (6<10) - printed, not hidden

4 of 6 resolved rows predate the rubric commitment - drift comparison anchors at the first hashed row

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	5	3	0.148	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden
keyless	1	1	0.202	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden

bin	n	mean p	observed
20-30	1	0.25	n<5
40-50	1	0.45	n<5
50-60	2	0.535	n<5
70-80	1	0.7	n<5
80-90	1	0.88	n<5

manual/sonnet-5

issued 45 - open 20 - resolved 25 - 14 hit / 11 miss - Brier 0.231 - base rate 0.56 - climatological 0.246 - skill 0.064

21 of 25 resolved rows predate the rubric commitment - drift comparison anchors at the first hashed row

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	23	13	0.228	0.074
keyless	2	1	0.265	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden

bin	n	mean p	observed
0-10	1	0.07	n<5
20-30	4	0.242	n<5
30-40	4	0.333	n<5
40-50	4	0.432	n<5
50-60	5	0.552	0.8
60-70	4	0.63	n<5
70-80	1	0.74	n<5
80-90	2	0.825	n<5

manual/sonnet-5/unattested

issued 192 - open 171 - resolved 21 - 10 hit / 11 miss - Brier 0.214 - base rate 0.476 - climatological 0.249 - skill 0.141

10 of 21 resolved rows predate the rubric commitment - drift comparison anchors at the first hashed row

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	17	9	0.232	0.071
keyless	4	1	0.141	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden

bin	n	mean p	observed
0-10	1	0.06	n<5
20-30	6	0.238	0.167
30-40	2	0.3	n<5
40-50	3	0.407	n<5
50-60	5	0.546	0.8
60-70	2	0.65	n<5
80-90	1	0.85	n<5
90-100	1	0.9	n<5

operator/human

issued 10 - open 5 - resolved 2 - 1 hit / 1 miss - Brier 0.186 - base rate 0.5 - climatological 0.25

insufficient n (2<10) - printed, not hidden

2 of 2 resolved rows predate the rubric commitment - drift comparison anchors at the first hashed row

class	n	hits	Brier	skill	note
keyed	0	-	-	-	no resolved rows
keyless	2	1	0.186	-	n<10 - printed, not hidden

bin	n	mean p	observed
50-60	1	0.5	n<5
60-70	1	0.65	n<5