▲ NOTHING CLASSIFIED OR PRIVILEGED082051Z SEP 26
NebelKrähe
NEBELKRÄHE · OSINT DESK

THE PRESCIENT DESK™ · PREDICTIVE LEDGER

Forecasts kept on the record
Calling our shots in the fog. Soaring through our misses.

NOTHING CLASSIFIED OR PRIVILEGED

KKR is the Kaos Kontrol Report — the daily forecasting stage that issues these projections. This is its permanent record: every projection ever sealed, resolved or open, hits and misses alike, segregated by the forecaster arm that issued it.

A standing Retro-Prescient Audit™ · method: RETRO_PRESCIENT_AUDIT.md

Window: all-time · 1743 issued across 16 forecaster arms · 1478 open (101 past deadline, unresolved)

No pooled score is published. A Brier score is a property of one forecaster; an average across arms is nobody's record. Every figure below is segregated by the arm that issued the projection. Skill is measured against that arm's OWN realized base rate — the strategy of stating the base rate every single time. Negative skill means the arm is losing to that strategy.

(U//OS)01. STANDING BY FORECASTER ARM▲

forecaster armissuedopenresolvedhitsmissesBrierbase rateclimatologicalskill
control/baserate5375092814140.29750.0%0.250-0.187
fogsim/scenario110——not computed———
kfk/halflife1091010.2500.0%0.000—
lmstudio/auto[post-verbot]20164130.18325.0%0.188+0.023
lmstudio/auto[post-window]2351478315680.18318.1%0.148-0.234
lmstudio/auto[pre-verbot]6064613330.22028.3%0.203-0.085
lmstudio/realist32320——not computed———
manual/fable452916970.18656.2%0.246+0.244
manual/fable-538326420.07066.7%0.222+0.687
manual/fable-5.1/unattested50500——not computed———
manual/fable-5/unattested1881862200.225100.0%0.000—
manual/opus-574659270.21322.2%0.173-0.230
manual/opus-5/unattested2062006420.15766.7%0.222+0.293
manual/sonnet-545202514110.23156.0%0.246+0.064
manual/sonnet-5/unattested1921712110110.21447.6%0.249+0.141
operator/human1052110.18650.0%0.250+0.255
Disclosure — what the elicited arms are. Arms tagged manual/* are frontier language models elicited by the operator against the same packet the machine arm receives. They are not informationally independent of this desk: the model is given the desk's own corpus and standing instructions as context. Their independence is procedural — a separate instrument answering the same questions — not informational. Rows are segregated by model, and no pooled score is published, because a Brier belongs to one forecaster.

Under 30 resolved a Brier score is noise, not a record: control/baserate, kfk/halflife, lmstudio/auto[post-verbot], manual/fable, manual/fable-5, manual/fable-5/unattested, manual/opus-5, manual/opus-5/unattested, manual/sonnet-5, manual/sonnet-5/unattested, operator/human.

CALIBRATION — control/baserate (28 resolved)

stated probabilityn resolvedrealized frequency
20-40%2752%
40-60%10%

CALIBRATION — kfk/halflife (1 resolved)

stated probabilityn resolvedrealized frequency
40-60%10%

CALIBRATION — lmstudio/auto[post-verbot] (4 resolved)

stated probabilityn resolvedrealized frequency
20-40%425%

CALIBRATION — lmstudio/auto[post-window] (83 resolved)

stated probabilityn resolvedrealized frequency
0-20%60%
20-40%5415%
40-60%1225%
60-80%850%
80-100%30%

CALIBRATION — lmstudio/auto[pre-verbot] (46 resolved)

stated probabilityn resolvedrealized frequency
0-20%10%
20-40%2726%
40-60%1436%
60-80%425%

CALIBRATION — manual/fable (16 resolved)

stated probabilityn resolvedrealized frequency
20-40%50%
40-60%786%
60-80%367%
80-100%1100%

CALIBRATION — manual/fable-5 (6 resolved)

stated probabilityn resolvedrealized frequency
20-40%20%
60-80%2100%
80-100%2100%

CALIBRATION — manual/fable-5/unattested (2 resolved)

stated probabilityn resolvedrealized frequency
40-60%1100%
60-80%1100%

CALIBRATION — manual/opus-5 (9 resolved)

stated probabilityn resolvedrealized frequency
0-20%10%
20-40%425%
40-60%333%
80-100%10%

CALIBRATION — manual/opus-5/unattested (6 resolved)

stated probabilityn resolvedrealized frequency
20-40%10%
40-60%367%
60-80%1100%
80-100%1100%

CALIBRATION — manual/sonnet-5 (25 resolved)

stated probabilityn resolvedrealized frequency
0-20%10%
20-40%838%
40-60%967%
60-80%580%
80-100%250%

CALIBRATION — manual/sonnet-5/unattested (21 resolved)

stated probabilityn resolvedrealized frequency
0-20%10%
20-40%812%
40-60%888%
60-80%250%
80-100%250%

CALIBRATION — operator/human (2 resolved)

stated probabilityn resolvedrealized frequency
40-60%10%
60-80%1100%

(U//OS)02. PAST DEADLINE — RESOLVE THESE (python kkr.py --resolve)▲

A projection appears here when its window has closed and it has not yet been adjudicated. That is not the same as neglect. Most criteria on this book ask whether an event occurred inside the window, not whether it was reported inside it — so an event confirmed on the 30th can satisfy a criterion that closed on the 28th, and resolving before the sources land would be guessing. Collation takes the time it takes, and the queue is printed rather than hidden while it does.

The bound that keeps this from becoming a parking space: a row sitting here more than fourteen days past its deadline is a defect in this desk, not in the world. The count is published on this page so that it is visible when it happens.

(U//OS)03. OPEN PROJECTIONS▲

idarmissueddeadlinepdomainstatement
KKR-20260804-51lmstudio/auto2026-08-042026-08-2640%politicalBetween 2026-08-11 and 2026-08-18, a new political scandal involving a U.S. federal official is reported by at least two independent outlets, including Al Jazeera and BBC World.
KKR-20260817-36lmstudio/auto2026-08-172026-08-2665%military/conflictBetween 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a drone strike will be reported in Dnipro with at least one corroborating report from a hostile side.
KKR-20260819-01lmstudio/auto2026-08-192026-08-2830%military/conflictBetween 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, at least one report from a hostile side in the Israel-Gaza-Levant Theatre will confirm a drone strike on Gaza City with casualties claimed in the corroborating reports.
KKR-20260804-53lmstudio/auto2026-08-042026-08-3045%politicalBetween 2026-08-15 and 2026-08-22, a new political development involving Iran's foreign ministry and the U.S. government is reported by at least two independent sources, including Al Jazeera and BBC World.
KKR-20260807-17manual/sonnet-52026-08-072026-09-0142%military_conflictThe ELN will be reported responsible for an attack killing at least one Colombian security-force member, between 2026-08-14 and 2026-08-28.
KKR-20260806-34lmstudio/auto2026-08-062026-09-0220%cyberBetween 2026-08-24 and 2026-08-31, a confirmed cyberattack using the Khunt post-exploitation toolkit will be reported by at least two independent sources with differing geopolitical affiliations.
KKR-20260809-02lmstudio/auto2026-08-092026-09-0232%cyberBetween 2026-08-27 and 2026-08-30, a new cyberattack targeting a U.S. government system is reported by two wire services with independent verification, and the CISA KEV catalog includes the vulnerability with a date-added value in that window.
KKR-20260810-22manual/sonnet-52026-08-102026-09-0230%military_conflictIran will seize, board, or fire upon a commercial vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31.
KKR-20260810-23manual/sonnet-52026-08-102026-09-0233%economicWTI crude oil NYMEX front-month settlement price will close at or above 85.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31.
KKR-20260810-24manual/sonnet-52026-08-102026-09-0247%military_conflictUkraine will conduct a further confirmed drone or missile strike on an oil refinery or energy facility in Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, or Samara Oblast between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31.
KKR-20260810-25manual/sonnet-52026-08-102026-09-0245%crime_securityAn Irish court will issue a bail ruling, either granting or denying bail, for Daniel Kinahan between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31.
KKR-20260810-26manual/sonnet-52026-08-102026-09-0218%politicalThe Israeli government will publicly announce acceptance, in full or amended form, of the Trump-backed 15-point Gaza plan it rejected around 2026-08-10, between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31.
KKR-20260810-28manual/sonnet-52026-08-102026-09-0232%cyberLexisNexis will publicly confirm that consumer or customer personal data was accessed or exfiltrated in the server incident disclosed around 2026-08-10, via an SEC filing, a state attorney general breach-notification portal, or a company statement, between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31.
KKR-20260810-29manual/sonnet-52026-08-102026-09-0258%economicIntel Corporation will price and close the 15 billion USD stock offering referenced in reporting on 2026-08-10, as confirmed by an SEC EDGAR filing, between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31.
KKR-20260811-07lmstudio/auto2026-08-112026-09-0230%disasterBetween 2026-08-28 and 2026-08-31, a magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake will be recorded by the USGS in the Philippines, with a depth of less than 70 km and a location within 100 km of the island of Mindanao.
KKR-20260815-24lmstudio/auto2026-08-152026-09-0245%military/conflictAt least 12 people are killed in Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, confirmed by two independent sources (BBC World, Al Jazeera).
KKR-20260815-25lmstudio/auto2026-08-152026-09-0220%disasterAt least one major wildfire in Europe causes over 100 evacuations between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, confirmed by two independent sources (BBC World, Al Jazeera).
KKR-20260815-26lmstudio/auto2026-08-152026-09-0225%politicalA new political alliance is formally announced between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, confirmed by two independent sources (Al Jazeera, BBC World).
KKR-20260817-23manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-172026-09-0232%cyberBetween 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31, a cybersecurity vendor or outlet other than BleepingComputer, such as Krebs on Security, The Hacker News, Malwarebytes, SentinelOne, or Objective-See, publishes independent research naming and attributing the AmnesiaStealer macOS malware campaign.
KKR-20260817-27control/baserate2026-08-172026-09-0223%cyberBetween 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31, a cybersecurity vendor or outlet other than BleepingComputer, such as Krebs on Security, The Hacker News, Malwarebytes, SentinelOne, or Objective-See, publishes independent research naming and attributing the AmnesiaStealer macOS malware campaign.
KKR-20260817-46control/baserate2026-08-172026-09-0223%cyberBetween 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31, a cybersecurity vendor or outlet other than BleepingComputer, such as Krebs on Security, The Hacker News, Malwarebytes, SentinelOne, or Objective-See, publishes independent research naming and attributing the AmnesiaStealer macOS malware campaign.
KKR-20260820-01lmstudio/auto2026-08-202026-09-0225%disasterBetween 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a magnitude 5.5 or higher earthquake will be recorded by the USGS in the region of Dunhuang, China.
KKR-20260820-04lmstudio/auto2026-08-202026-09-0240%military/conflictBetween 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a new military offensive will be reported in the Zaporizhzhia region with confirmed casualties.
KKR-20260820-06lmstudio/auto2026-08-202026-09-0220%politicalBetween 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a new ceasefire agreement will be reported in the Israel-Gaza-Levant Theatre with confirmation from both Israeli and Palestinian sources.
KKR-20260820-17manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-202026-09-0218%military_conflictBetween 2026-08-20 and 2026-08-30, a commercial vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz will be attacked, mined, or seized, confirmed by two or more of UKMTO, US Fifth Fleet, Reuters, or AP.
KKR-20260822-21lmstudio/auto2026-08-222026-09-0225%economics/marketsU.S. and Canadian officials announce a new bilateral tariff agreement between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28
KKR-20260822-22lmstudio/auto2026-08-222026-09-0220%disasterA major earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher occurs in the Scotia Sea between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28
KKR-20260822-23lmstudio/auto2026-08-222026-09-0235%politicalIran announces the resumption of uranium enrichment at 60% purity between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28
KKR-20260822-24lmstudio/auto2026-08-222026-09-0218%cyberA cyberattack using a proxy botnet malware infects at least 10,000 vehicles with Android-based head units between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28
KKR-20260822-25lmstudio/auto2026-08-222026-09-0232%politicalA new political scandal involving a U.S. federal official is confirmed by two independent outlets between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28
KKR-20260823-01lmstudio/auto2026-08-232026-09-0228%military/conflictA drone strike targeting Kyiv, Ukraine, occurs between 2026-08-24 and 2026-08-30, resulting in at least one confirmed casualty.
KKR-20260811-08lmstudio/auto2026-08-112026-09-0325%crime/securityBetween 2026-08-29 and 2026-09-01, the U.S. Department of Justice will announce the indictment of a former senior official from the Trump administration for obstruction of justice, as confirmed by a press release from the DOJ.
KKR-20260811-29manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-112026-09-0358%disaster_infrastructureCAL FIRE will report the Big Sur-area wildfire from item 41 at 50 percent containment or higher, with the milestone reached between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-01.
KKR-20260811-32manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-112026-09-0375%military_conflictA named wire service will report a new clash between Nigerian security forces and non-state armed groups in northwestern Nigeria with 10 or more combined fatalities, occurring between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-01, per item 99.
KKR-20260811-55control/baserate2026-08-112026-09-0333%disaster_infrastructureCAL FIRE will report the Big Sur-area wildfire from item 41 at 50 percent containment or higher, with the milestone reached between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-01.
KKR-20260811-58control/baserate2026-08-112026-09-0333%military_conflictA named wire service will report a new clash between Nigerian security forces and non-state armed groups in northwestern Nigeria with 10 or more combined fatalities, occurring between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-01, per item 99.
KKR-20260817-01manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-172026-09-0390%military/conflictAt least one Russian air attack using missiles or drones causes an impact, explosion, or fire within Kyiv city between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31.
KKR-20260817-06control/baserate2026-08-172026-09-0350%military/conflictAt least one Russian air attack using missiles or drones causes an impact, explosion, or fire within Kyiv city between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31.
KKR-20260817-43manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-172026-09-0347%politicalZambian prosecutors file formal criminal charges against at least one arrested opposition figure between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31.
KKR-20260817-51control/baserate2026-08-172026-09-0329%politicalZambian prosecutors file formal criminal charges against at least one arrested opposition figure between 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-31.
KKR-20260820-02lmstudio/auto2026-08-202026-09-0335%cyberBetween 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a coordinated cyberattack exploiting the Zimbra SNMP flaw will be confirmed by two independent sources.
KKR-20260820-05lmstudio/auto2026-08-202026-09-0330%disasterBetween 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a tropical cyclone with Category 3 or higher intensity will be reported by GDACS.
KKR-20260820-07lmstudio/auto2026-08-202026-09-0335%cyberBetween 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a major cyberattack on a critical infrastructure system in the United States will be confirmed by CISA.
KKR-20260820-18manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-202026-09-0340%cyberBetween 2026-08-20 and 2026-08-31, CISA will add CVE-2026-73570, the actively exploited Zimbra Collaboration Suite SNMP command-injection flaw, to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog.
KKR-20260821-01lmstudio/auto2026-08-212026-09-0330%military/conflictA drone strike targeting a military installation in Kyiv, Ukraine, occurs between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28, resulting in at least one confirmed casualty.
KKR-20260821-02lmstudio/auto2026-08-212026-09-0325%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog will include at least one new vulnerability with a CVSS score of 10.0 between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28.
KKR-20260821-03lmstudio/auto2026-08-212026-09-0320%disasterA magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake will be recorded by the USGS in Indonesia between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28.
KKR-20260821-04lmstudio/auto2026-08-212026-09-0330%politicalA major political scandal involving a U.S. federal official will be reported by at least two major outlets (e.g., CNN, The New York Times, The Guardian) between 2026-08-22 and 2026-08-28.
KKR-20260824-01lmstudio/auto2026-08-242026-09-0330%military/conflictAirstrikes on Gaza City, Gaza Strip, will result in at least one confirmed fatality between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31.
KKR-20260824-02lmstudio/auto2026-08-242026-09-0335%military/conflictA drone strike will be reported in Deir Al-Balah, Gaza Strip, resulting in at least one injury between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31.
KKR-20260825-01lmstudio/auto2026-08-252026-09-0330%military/conflictAirstrikes on Gaza City occurred between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31, resulting in at least one confirmed casualty as reported by Al Jazeera and BBC World.
KKR-20260825-02lmstudio/auto2026-08-252026-09-0335%military/conflictA drone attack on a refinery in Russia's Krasnodar region caused a fire and at least two fatalities between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31.
KKR-20260825-03lmstudio/auto2026-08-252026-09-0330%economics/marketsThe S&P 500 index closed above 7,700 on a weekday between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31.
KKR-20260825-04lmstudio/auto2026-08-252026-09-0320%politicalA new U.S. federal law was enacted to impose sanctions on Iran, with at least 60 entities listed, between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31.
KKR-20260825-05lmstudio/auto2026-08-252026-09-0330%disasterA magnitude 5.5 or higher earthquake occurred in Japan between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31, with a depth of less than 100 km.
KKR-20260825-06lmstudio/auto2026-08-252026-09-0325%economics/marketsA new U.S. tariff on Canadian goods, valued at $20 billion, was announced by the Canadian government between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31.
KKR-20260825-07lmstudio/auto2026-08-252026-09-0335%cyberA major cyberattack targeting a U.S. defense contractor was confirmed by CISA between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31.
KKR-20260806-36lmstudio/auto2026-08-062026-09-0430%politicalBetween 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-02, a confirmed political resignation of a senior U.S. government official (e.g., cabinet member, senator, or agency head) will be reported by at least two independent news outlets with differing political leanings.
KKR-20260808-02lmstudio/auto2026-08-082026-09-0415%disasterBetween 2026-08-24 and 2026-08-31, a major earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or higher will occur in the United States, as recorded by the USGS Significant Quakes feed.
KKR-20260810-10manual/fable-52026-08-102026-09-0485%military/conflictBetween 2026-08-11 and 2026-08-31, Ukrainian forces strike at least one oil refinery or oil processing facility on Russian territory, corroborated by at least two international news organizations.
KKR-20260811-09lmstudio/auto2026-08-112026-09-0435%cyberBetween 2026-08-30 and 2026-09-02, a new ransomware group called 'Gunra' will be confirmed by CISA to have exploited a vulnerability in Fortinet firewalls, with a public exploit available by 2026-09-02.
KKR-20260812-16manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-122026-09-0430%cyberA CVE tied to the Microsoft Defender ShieldBreak privilege-escalation flaw disclosed around 11 Aug 2026 will be added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-02.
KKR-20260812-17manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-122026-09-0455%military_conflictA Houthi or other Iran-aligned attack will kill at least one person in Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, or Strait of Hormuz shipping-lane activity between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-02, beyond the fatalities already reported 12 Aug 2026.
KKR-20260812-18manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-122026-09-0427%military_conflictRussia will board, detain, or seize a European Union-flagged or EU-owned commercial vessel between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-02, consistent with the tit-for-tat seizure warning reported 12 Aug 2026.
KKR-20260812-21manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-122026-09-0445%crime_securityThe Egyptian student whose kidnapping was livestreamed, per the report dated 12 Aug 2026, will be confirmed located, released, or recovered by two or more sources between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-02.
KKR-20260812-33control/baserate2026-08-122026-09-0433%cyberA CVE tied to the Microsoft Defender ShieldBreak privilege-escalation flaw disclosed around 11 Aug 2026 will be added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-02.
KKR-20260812-34control/baserate2026-08-122026-09-0433%military_conflictA Houthi or other Iran-aligned attack will kill at least one person in Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, or Strait of Hormuz shipping-lane activity between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-02, beyond the fatalities already reported 12 Aug 2026.
KKR-20260812-35control/baserate2026-08-122026-09-0433%military_conflictRussia will board, detain, or seize a European Union-flagged or EU-owned commercial vessel between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-02, consistent with the tit-for-tat seizure warning reported 12 Aug 2026.
KKR-20260812-38control/baserate2026-08-122026-09-0433%crime_securityThe Egyptian student whose kidnapping was livestreamed, per the report dated 12 Aug 2026, will be confirmed located, released, or recovered by two or more sources between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-02.
KKR-20260818-15manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-182026-09-0487%military/conflictBetween 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-01, the Ukrainian Air Force command reports on at least seven separate overnight periods that Russia launched 100 or more one-way attack drones.
KKR-20260818-31control/baserate2026-08-182026-09-0450%military/conflictBetween 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-01, the Ukrainian Air Force command reports on at least seven separate overnight periods that Russia launched 100 or more one-way attack drones.
KKR-20260819-21manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-192026-09-0445%cyberBetween 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-02, the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog lists 10 or more entries with a dateAdded value in that range, following the 4 entries added 2026-08-18.
KKR-20260819-42control/baserate2026-08-192026-09-0423%cyberBetween 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-02, the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog lists 10 or more entries with a dateAdded value in that range, following the 4 entries added 2026-08-18.
KKR-20260823-02lmstudio/auto2026-08-232026-09-0432%cyberA cyberattack exploiting a vulnerability listed in the CISA KEV catalog occurs between 2026-08-25 and 2026-09-01, disrupting a critical infrastructure provider in the UK.
KKR-20260824-03lmstudio/auto2026-08-242026-09-0425%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog will include a new entry for a vulnerability in Zimbra software with a severity rating of Critical or High between 2026-08-25 and 2026-09-01.
KKR-20260824-04lmstudio/auto2026-08-242026-09-0465%economics/marketsThe S&P 500 will close below 7,600.00 on at least one weekday between 2026-08-25 and 2026-09-01.
KKR-20260824-05lmstudio/auto2026-08-242026-09-0432%military/conflictA drone strike will be reported in Kyiv, Ukraine, resulting in at least one confirmed casualty between 2026-08-25 and 2026-09-01.
KKR-20260824-06lmstudio/auto2026-08-242026-09-0428%cyberA new cyberattack campaign targeting critical infrastructure in the U.S. will be attributed to a foreign state actor by CISA between 2026-08-25 and 2026-09-01.
KKR-20260826-01lmstudio/auto2026-08-262026-09-0465%military/conflictBetween 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02, at least one of the following will be reported by two or more independent sources: a drone strike on Kyiv, a missile strike on Zaporizhzhia, or an airstrike on Khan Younis.
KKR-20260826-02lmstudio/auto2026-08-262026-09-0430%economics/marketsBetween 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02, the Federal Reserve will announce a 25 basis point increase in the federal funds rate.
KKR-20260826-03lmstudio/auto2026-08-262026-09-0425%disasterBetween 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02, the USGS Significant Quakes catalog will record an earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or higher in Japan.
KKR-20260826-04lmstudio/auto2026-08-262026-09-0440%cyberBetween 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02, the CISA Red Team will be publicly confirmed to have compromised a critical infrastructure organization in the United States.
KKR-20260826-05lmstudio/auto2026-08-262026-09-0435%politicalBetween 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02, Iran will publicly announce a new agreement with Oman to maintain temporary maritime access through the Strait of Hormuz.
KKR-20260826-06lmstudio/auto2026-08-262026-09-0445%cyberBetween 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02, the U.S. Treasury will release a public statement sanctioning a new group of Iranian hackers linked to critical infrastructure breaches.
KKR-20260826-07lmstudio/auto2026-08-262026-09-0420%politicalBetween 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02, the European Union will impose new sanctions on Russia related to military actions in Ukraine.
KKR-20260826-08lmstudio/auto2026-08-262026-09-0430%crime/securityBetween 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-02, the U.S. Department of Justice will publicly confirm a cyberattack on a major U.S. healthcare provider resulting in data exposure.
KKR-20260829-74manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-292026-09-0458%politicalIncumbent Edward Markey will win the Massachusetts Democratic US Senate primary held 2026-09-01, referenced in item 127.
KKR-20260808-03lmstudio/auto2026-08-082026-09-0585%politicalBetween 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-31, the US Senate will pass a resolution to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General, as recorded in the official Congressional Record.
KKR-20260823-03lmstudio/auto2026-08-232026-09-0522%disasterA magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strikes Japan between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-02, with at least 10 fatalities reported.
KKR-20260823-04lmstudio/auto2026-08-232026-09-0635%economics/marketsA new US economic sanction against Iran is formally announced by the Treasury Department between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03, with a public press release issued.
KKR-20260806-35lmstudio/auto2026-08-062026-09-0740%disasterBetween 2026-08-25 and 2026-09-01, a verified wildfire will be reported in the U.S. Southwest (Arizona, New Mexico, or Nevada) with a containment status of 'under control' or 'contained' by 2026-09-05.
KKR-20260808-04lmstudio/auto2026-08-082026-09-0720%disasterBetween 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03, a new wildfire will be reported in the United States by the GDACS Alerts feed, with a confirmed area burned exceeding 10,000 acres.
KKR-20260823-05lmstudio/auto2026-08-232026-09-0726%military/conflictA major offensive operation by Russian forces in the Kursk region of Ukraine begins between 2026-08-28 and 2026-09-04, confirmed by two hostile-side reports with independent corroboration.
KKR-20260827-59lmstudio/auto2026-08-272026-09-0725%disasterBetween 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03, the USGS will record a magnitude 5.0 or higher earthquake in Japan with a depth of less than 30km.
KKR-20260827-60lmstudio/auto2026-08-272026-09-0765%economics/marketsBetween 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03, the S&P 500 will close above 7,800 points on at least one weekday.
KKR-20260827-61lmstudio/auto2026-08-272026-09-0735%military/conflictBetween 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03, a confirmed military strike will occur in the Gaza City area, resulting in at least one reported casualty.
KKR-20260827-62lmstudio/auto2026-08-272026-09-0740%politicalBetween 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03, a new political statement will be issued by Iran's foreign ministry regarding negotiations with the US, corroborated by both Axis and Western sources.
KKR-20260827-63lmstudio/auto2026-08-272026-09-0720%cyberBetween 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03, a confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2021-23758 will be reported by at least two independent sources.
KKR-20260827-64lmstudio/auto2026-08-272026-09-0730%disasterBetween 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03, a confirmed forest fire will be reported in Canada with a size exceeding 10,000 hectares.
KKR-20260827-65lmstudio/auto2026-08-272026-09-0725%politicalBetween 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03, a confirmed political statement by Trump regarding Iran sanctions will be corroborated by both Western and Axis sources.
KKR-20260827-66lmstudio/auto2026-08-272026-09-0735%military/conflictBetween 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03, a confirmed military strike in Kyiv will result in at least one reported casualty.
KKR-20260729-09lmstudio/auto2026-07-292026-09-0845%politicalBetween 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-08, a U.S. presidential candidate announces a major policy shift on climate change during a national address.
KKR-20260802-06lmstudio/auto2026-08-022026-09-0830%disasterOn 2026-09-08, a major earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher will be recorded in New Zealand, confirmed by the USGS Significant Quakes feed.
KKR-20260804-28manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-042026-09-0818%economics/marketsAstraZeneca and Bristol Myers Squibb will announce a signed definitive merger or acquisition agreement between 2026-08-04 and 2026-09-04.
KKR-20260804-44control/baserate2026-08-042026-09-0825%economics/marketsAstraZeneca and Bristol Myers Squibb will announce a signed definitive merger or acquisition agreement between 2026-08-04 and 2026-09-04.
KKR-20260806-15manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-062026-09-0850%disasterThe USGS catalog records at least one magnitude 5.0 or greater earthquake within 100 km of the 2026-08-05 Sarangani M6.3 epicenter, with origin time between 2026-08-06 and 2026-09-04.
KKR-20260806-30control/baserate2026-08-062026-09-0831%disasterThe USGS catalog records at least one magnitude 5.0 or greater earthquake within 100 km of the 2026-08-05 Sarangani M6.3 epicenter, with origin time between 2026-08-06 and 2026-09-04.
KKR-20260808-05lmstudio/auto2026-08-082026-09-0818%cyberBetween 2026-08-28 and 2026-09-04, a coordinated cyberattack targeting at least three financial institutions in Europe will be confirmed by two independent cybersecurity sources, resulting in data exfiltration.
KKR-20260808-22manual/sonnet-52026-08-082026-09-0814%cyberCISA updates the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog entry for CVE-2026-8037, the Progress LoadMaster command-injection vulnerability, so that knownRansomwareCampaignUse equals Known, at any point between 2026-08-09 and 2026-09-06.
KKR-20260818-12manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-182026-09-0840%politicalA petition challenging the 2026 Zambian presidential election result is filed with the Constitutional Court of Zambia between 2026-08-18 and 2026-09-04.
KKR-20260818-28control/baserate2026-08-182026-09-0829%politicalA petition challenging the 2026 Zambian presidential election result is filed with the Constitutional Court of Zambia between 2026-08-18 and 2026-09-04.
KKR-20260822-05manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-222026-09-0840%crime_securityAt the sentencing hearing scheduled for 2026-09-04 at Preston Crown Court, at least one of the five Barclays-branch Palestine Action defendants (Atiqnisar, Kelly, Malik, O'Hagan, or Yaniv) receives an immediate custodial sentence.
KKR-20260827-03manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-272026-09-0890%politicalXi Jinping holds an in-person meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi on Egyptian territory between 2026-08-30 and 2026-09-04, as part of the state visit announced by the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
KKR-20260827-25control/baserate2026-08-272026-09-0829%politicalXi Jinping holds an in-person meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi on Egyptian territory between 2026-08-30 and 2026-09-04, as part of the state visit announced by the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
KKR-20260901-18manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-012026-09-0890%politicalEd Markey defeats Seth Moulton in the Massachusetts Democratic primary for United States Senate held September 1, 2026.
KKR-20260901-19manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-012026-09-0878%crime/securityDistrict Judge Tony Graf rules that Tyler Robinson is bound over for trial specifically on the aggravated murder count in the killing of Charlie Kirk, following the September 1, 2026 preliminary hearing ruling in Provo, [withheld].
KKR-20260902-15control/baserate2026-09-022026-09-0844%politicalEd Markey defeats Seth Moulton in the Massachusetts Democratic primary for United States Senate held September 1, 2026.
KKR-20260902-16control/baserate2026-09-022026-09-0843%crime/securityDistrict Judge Tony Graf rules that Tyler Robinson is bound over for trial specifically on the aggravated murder count in the killing of Charlie Kirk, following the September 1, 2026 preliminary hearing ruling in Provo, [withheld].
KKR-20260808-06lmstudio/auto2026-08-082026-09-0928%politicalBetween 2026-08-29 and 2026-09-05, a new political scandal involving a US senator will be reported by two major wire services (e.g., Reuters, AP), with allegations of corruption or misuse of funds.
KKR-20260811-30manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-112026-09-0933%economicWTI crude oil will settle at or above 90.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-08, extending the move in item 63.
KKR-20260811-56control/baserate2026-08-112026-09-0918%economicWTI crude oil will settle at or above 90.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-08, extending the move in item 63.
KKR-20260822-02manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-222026-09-0925%military/conflictUS Central Command publicly announces US strikes on land targets inside Iran conducted on at least one day between 2026-08-24 and 2026-09-06, ending the kinetic pause that has held since the cancelled campaign of 2026-08-01 while the administration pivots to economic warfare.
KKR-20260823-06lmstudio/auto2026-08-232026-09-0930%politicalA new political crisis emerges in the UK Parliament over the recognition of Israel's actions in Gaza, with a formal motion of no confidence tabled between 2026-08-30 and 2026-09-06.
KKR-20260903-03manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-032026-09-0955%economics/marketsThe BLS Employment Situation release scheduled for 2026-09-04 reports a first-estimate change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August 2026 below +75,000. Reference: ADP private payrolls +38,000 for August, reported 2026-09-02.
KKR-20260903-10control/baserate2026-09-032026-09-0921%economics/marketsThe BLS Employment Situation release scheduled for 2026-09-04 reports a first-estimate change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August 2026 below +75,000. Reference: ADP private payrolls +38,000 for August, reported 2026-09-02.
KKR-20260804-64manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-042026-09-1015%cyberBetween 2026-08-04 and 2026-09-08, the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog will add a second CVE, distinct from CVE-2026-18577, affecting N-able N-central.
KKR-20260808-20manual/sonnet-52026-08-082026-09-1012%military/conflictIran imposes a closure or blockade on commercial shipping transit through the Strait of Hormuz at any point between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-08.
KKR-20260808-23manual/sonnet-52026-08-082026-09-1018%politicalThe sitting Governor of Rhode Island leaves office, through resignation, recall, impeachment conviction, or removal, at any point between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-08.
KKR-20260811-27manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-112026-09-1068%cyberA US water or energy utility beyond those in items 33, 34, and 37 will publicly disclose a new ransomware incident, occurring between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-08.
KKR-20260811-53control/baserate2026-08-112026-09-1033%cyberA US water or energy utility beyond those in items 33, 34, and 37 will publicly disclose a new ransomware incident, occurring between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-08.
KKR-20260823-07lmstudio/auto2026-08-232026-09-1020%disasterA major wildfire breaks out in California, USA, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-07, with at least 500 homes destroyed, confirmed by two independent sources.
KKR-20260825-16manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-252026-09-1015%disasterGDACS raises tropical cyclone JULIO-26 from Green to Orange or Red alert level before the system is marked dissipated, between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-08.
KKR-20260827-58control/baserate2026-08-272026-09-1033%disasterGDACS raises tropical cyclone JULIO-26 from Green to Orange or Red alert level before the system is marked dissipated, between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-08.
KKR-20260831-01lmstudio/auto2026-08-312026-09-1028%military/conflictA drone attack on Kyiv, Ukraine, resulting in at least one confirmed casualty, occurs between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-07.
KKR-20260731-01manual/fable-52026-07-312026-09-1140%economicICE Brent front-month crude futures settle at or above 95.00 USD per barrel on at least one weekday between 2026-08-07 and 2026-09-11 amid Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
KKR-20260809-08manual/opus-52026-08-092026-09-1160%military/conflictA Houthi-claimed attack strikes a Saudi Aramco facility between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-07, and a Saudi official body confirms an impact at that facility.
KKR-20260811-31manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-112026-09-1138%economicIntel common stock will close at or above 100.00 USD on the Nasdaq on at least one trading day between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-10, following the offering in item 84.
KKR-20260811-57control/baserate2026-08-112026-09-1118%economicIntel common stock will close at or above 100.00 USD on the Nasdaq on at least one trading day between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-10, following the offering in item 84.
KKR-20260819-20manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-192026-09-1118%politicalBetween 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-09, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, or Oman formally announces new trade restrictions or a trade suspension against Iran, distinct from the UAE action already reported.
KKR-20260819-41control/baserate2026-08-192026-09-1129%politicalBetween 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-09, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, or Oman formally announces new trade restrictions or a trade suspension against Iran, distinct from the UAE action already reported.
KKR-20260823-08lmstudio/auto2026-08-232026-09-1124%economics/marketsA new round of sanctions on Russia is imposed by the European Union, with a formal press release issued between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-08, confirmed by two independent news outlets.
KKR-20260825-15manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-252026-09-1130%crime/securityA named law-enforcement agency (Europol, FBI, or a national police force) announces additional arrests connected to the global cybercrime crackdown, between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-08.
KKR-20260827-57control/baserate2026-08-272026-09-1131%crime/securityA named law-enforcement agency (Europol, FBI, or a national police force) announces additional arrests connected to the global cybercrime crackdown, between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-08.
KKR-20260829-01lmstudio/auto2026-08-292026-09-1130%military/conflictA Russian drone strike on a warehouse near Kyiv between 2026-08-29 and 2026-09-05 results in at least 37 fatalities, confirmed by BBC World and Guardian World reporting.
KKR-20260904-13manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-042026-09-1185%politicalThe UN General Assembly will adopt the Togo-sponsored resolution replacing the Mercator projection with the Equal Earth projection at its scheduled vote on 2026-09-04.
KKR-20260904-14manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-042026-09-1127%politicalThe AfD will win an outright majority, at least 42 of the 83 seats, in the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election held 2026-09-06, exceeding its pre-election polling average of roughly 39 projected seats.
KKR-20260904-43control/baserate2026-09-042026-09-1135%politicalThe UN General Assembly will adopt the Togo-sponsored resolution replacing the Mercator projection with the Equal Earth projection at its scheduled vote on 2026-09-04.
KKR-20260904-44control/baserate2026-09-042026-09-1135%politicalThe AfD will win an outright majority, at least 42 of the 83 seats, in the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election held 2026-09-06, exceeding its pre-election polling average of roughly 39 projected seats.
KKR-20260802-02lmstudio/auto2026-08-022026-09-1225%cyberBetween 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-12, a cyberattack exploiting a newly cataloged vulnerability in Google Chrome will result in the compromise of at least 10,000 user accounts on public-facing platforms.
KKR-20260823-09lmstudio/auto2026-08-232026-09-1227%military/conflictA drone strike on a military facility in Damascus, Syria, results in at least one confirmed casualty between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-09, confirmed by two hostile-side reports.
KKR-20260808-13manual/opus-52026-08-082026-09-1488%military_conflictUkrainian authorities report at least one civilian killed by a Russian missile or drone strike in Kyiv city or Kyiv oblast between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-10.
KKR-20260810-14manual/fable-52026-08-102026-09-1430%disasterUSGS catalogs at least one M6.0 or greater earthquake with epicenter within 200 km of event us6000tjl2 and origin time between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-10 UTC.
KKR-20260811-16manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-112026-09-1465%disasterThe UK Met Office announces between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-10 that summer 2026 was the warmest summer on record for the UK in its national temperature series.
KKR-20260811-42control/baserate2026-08-112026-09-1433%disasterThe UK Met Office announces between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-10 that summer 2026 was the warmest summer on record for the UK in its national temperature series.
KKR-20260812-20manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-122026-09-1442%disaster_infrastructureA magnitude 6.0 or greater aftershock will be recorded by USGS within the epicentral region of the 12 Aug 2026 M7.4 Colombia earthquake between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-11.
KKR-20260812-37control/baserate2026-08-122026-09-1433%disaster_infrastructureA magnitude 6.0 or greater aftershock will be recorded by USGS within the epicentral region of the 12 Aug 2026 M7.4 Colombia earthquake between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-11.
KKR-20260820-19manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-202026-09-1458%economicBetween 2026-08-20 and 2026-09-10, the US Treasury OFAC Specially Designated Nationals list will add one or more new Iran-program designations under the economic isolation campaign Trump announced on 2026-08-19.
KKR-20260827-72manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-272026-09-1470%politicalThe Norwegian Royal House announces the death of King Harald V occurring between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-10.
KKR-20260827-95control/baserate2026-08-272026-09-1444%politicalThe Norwegian Royal House announces the death of King Harald V occurring between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-10.
KKR-20260831-03lmstudio/auto2026-08-312026-09-1432%military/conflictAirstrikes on Gaza City, Gaza Strip, result in at least five confirmed civilian casualties between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12.
KKR-20260831-73manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-312026-09-1465%disaster_infrastructureCypriot or Turkish-Cypriot authorities declare the search for the missing passengers of the northern Cyprus ferry capsize concluded, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-10.
KKR-20260831-80control/baserate2026-08-312026-09-1452%disaster_infrastructureCypriot or Turkish-Cypriot authorities declare the search for the missing passengers of the northern Cyprus ferry capsize concluded, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-10.
KKR-20260904-09lmstudio/realist2026-09-042026-09-1430%economics/marketsBetween 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-12, the US dollar strengthens to a 10-year high against the euro, with EUR/USD falling below 1.1450 at the close of the final trading day.
KKR-20260904-24manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-042026-09-1410%politicalIn the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election held 2026-09-06, the AfD wins an absolute majority of all seats (strictly more than half, counting overhang and leveling seats) in the official preliminary result.
KKR-20260904-54control/baserate2026-09-042026-09-1435%politicalIn the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election held 2026-09-06, the AfD wins an absolute majority of all seats (strictly more than half, counting overhang and leveling seats) in the official preliminary result.
KKR-20260905-09lmstudio/realist2026-09-052026-09-1425%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12, at least one drone strike will be reported in the Kyiv region with confirmed casualties from a cross-bias source.
KKR-20260905-10lmstudio/realist2026-09-052026-09-1420%cyberBetween 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12, a major cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-85046 will be confirmed by at least two independent sources.
KKR-20260905-11lmstudio/realist2026-09-052026-09-1435%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12, the US will conduct a military strike on an Iranian oil tanker in the Persian Gulf.
KKR-20260905-12lmstudio/realist2026-09-052026-09-1415%disasterBetween 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12, a new earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or higher will be recorded in the USGS Significant Quakes database.
KKR-20260905-13lmstudio/realist2026-09-052026-09-1440%disasterBetween 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12, at least one forest fire in Africa will be reported by GDACS Alerts with a green alert level.
KKR-20260905-14lmstudio/realist2026-09-052026-09-1430%politicalBetween 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12, the US will announce new sanctions on Iran related to regional proxy activities.
KKR-20260905-15lmstudio/realist2026-09-052026-09-1445%politicalBetween 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12, a new political scandal involving a US government official will be reported by at least two independent sources.
KKR-20260720-18lmstudio/auto2026-07-202026-09-1520%disasterA magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake will be reported in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, or Northern California) with at least one fatality by 2026-09-15.
KKR-20260722-14manual/fable2026-07-222026-09-1565%militaryAt least two independent wire services report a new United States or Israeli military strike on Iranian territory or Iranian-flagged maritime assets between 2026-07-23 and 2026-09-15
KKR-20260724-10manual/fable2026-07-242026-09-1525%cyberCISA adds the Certighost Active Directory vulnerability to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-07-25 and 2026-09-15.
KKR-20260725-08manual/fable2026-07-252026-09-1540%cyberCISA adds a Fastjson or GitLab remote-code-execution CVE to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-07-27 and 2026-09-15.
KKR-20260727-03kfk/halflife2026-07-272026-09-1550%military/conflictMajor General John W. Lubas will no longer be named as commanding officer of the 3rd Infantry Division in the source of record on 2026-09-15.
KKR-20260727-33manual/opus-52026-07-272026-09-1520%disaster/infrastructureA Meteo-France station records a maximum air temperature of 45.0 degrees Celsius or higher in metropolitan France between 2026-07-28 and 2026-09-15.
KKR-20260728-05manual/opus-52026-07-282026-09-1530%military/conflictThe United States and Iran announce a signed written agreement or framework between 2026-07-29 and 2026-09-15.
KKR-20260728-06manual/opus-52026-07-282026-09-1578%military/conflictAt least one additional attack on a commercial vessel in the Red Sea or the Gulf is claimed by or attributed to Houthi forces between 2026-07-29 and 2026-09-15.
KKR-20260730-25manual/sonnet-52026-07-302026-09-1518%cyberBetween 2026-07-30 and 2026-09-15, a U.S. federal agency or critical-infrastructure operator will be publicly confirmed as compromised via the Cisco Secure Firewall Management Center hard-coded credential flaw CVE-2026-20316.
KKR-20260731-04manual/fable-52026-07-312026-09-1545%cyberCISA adds the JetBrains TeamCity remote code execution vulnerability disclosed in late July 2026 to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-08-07 and 2026-09-15
KKR-20260731-06manual/fable-52026-07-312026-09-1530%military_conflictA first physical handover of Hamas weapons under the Gaza Board of Peace disarmament agreement is publicly confirmed between 2026-08-07 and 2026-09-15
KKR-20260731-09manual/fable-52026-07-312026-09-1540%politicalAt least one EU member state formally notifies temporary internal border controls citing the Ceuta migration surge between 2026-08-07 and 2026-09-15
KKR-20260807-18manual/sonnet-52026-08-072026-09-1530%economicBLS will report a second consecutive month of net job losses for August 2026, in the Employment Situation release published between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-12.
KKR-20260807-19manual/sonnet-52026-08-072026-09-1560%politicalThe US Senate will vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-11.
KKR-20260810-11manual/fable-52026-08-102026-09-1515%economics/marketsICE Brent crude front-month futures settle above 110.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-11.
KKR-20260811-10manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-112026-09-1592%military/conflictAt least one Russian missile or drone strike on Kyiv city between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-11 is acknowledged by Ukrainian officials and reported by at least two international wire services.
KKR-20260811-36control/baserate2026-08-112026-09-1533%military/conflictAt least one Russian missile or drone strike on Kyiv city between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-11 is acknowledged by Ukrainian officials and reported by at least two international wire services.
KKR-20260813-35manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-132026-09-1532%economics/marketsWTI crude oil, the NYMEX front-month futures contract, will settle at or above 85.00 USD per barrel at the close of trading on 2026-09-15.
KKR-20260813-39control/baserate2026-08-132026-09-1518%economics/marketsWTI crude oil, the NYMEX front-month futures contract, will settle at or above 85.00 USD per barrel at the close of trading on 2026-09-15.
KKR-20260822-31manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-222026-09-1545%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog adds at least two distinct Microsoft CVEs in the September 2026 Patch Tuesday week, with dateAdded values between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-11.
KKR-20260831-09manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-312026-09-1527%military_conflictThe confirmed death toll from the Russian strike on a Ukrainian arms depot, reported at 38 on 2026-08-30, will be revised to 45 or higher by a Ukrainian official source or a major wire service between 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-13.
KKR-20260831-15manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-312026-09-1540%disaster_infrastructureThe confirmed death toll from the Northern Cyprus ferry that capsized around 2026-08-30 with roughly 260 to 270 people aboard, six to seven confirmed dead as of 2026-08-30, will reach 15 or more per Cypriot, Turkish, or wire-service reporting, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-13.
KKR-20260831-18control/baserate2026-08-312026-09-1553%military_conflictThe confirmed death toll from the Russian strike on a Ukrainian arms depot, reported at 38 on 2026-08-30, will be revised to 45 or higher by a Ukrainian official source or a major wire service between 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-13.
KKR-20260831-24control/baserate2026-08-312026-09-1552%disaster_infrastructureThe confirmed death toll from the Northern Cyprus ferry that capsized around 2026-08-30 with roughly 260 to 270 people aboard, six to seven confirmed dead as of 2026-08-30, will reach 15 or more per Cypriot, Turkish, or wire-service reporting, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-13.
KKR-20260902-08manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-022026-09-1565%crime/securityThe jury in the Lindsay Clancy murder trial in Plymouth County, Massachusetts returns a verdict on at least one count between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-11, rather than the judge declaring a mistrial for deadlock.
KKR-20260902-29control/baserate2026-09-022026-09-1543%crime/securityThe jury in the Lindsay Clancy murder trial in Plymouth County, Massachusetts returns a verdict on at least one count between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-11, rather than the judge declaring a mistrial for deadlock.
KKR-20260801-02lmstudio/auto2026-08-012026-09-1615%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-09 and 2026-09-16, Iran will launch a missile strike on a U.S. military installation in the Persian Gulf region.
KKR-20260801-15manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-012026-09-1628%economics/marketsThe Federal Reserve will cut the federal funds rate at the conclusion of its September 15-16, 2026 FOMC meeting.
KKR-20260815-01manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-152026-09-1630%disasterThe USGS ComCat catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater with epicenter within 300 km of USGS event us6000tjl2 and origin time between 2026-08-15 and 2026-09-14.
KKR-20260815-03control/baserate2026-08-152026-09-1633%disasterThe USGS ComCat catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater with epicenter within 300 km of USGS event us6000tjl2 and origin time between 2026-08-15 and 2026-09-14.
KKR-20260820-20manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-202026-09-1628%economicOn 2026-09-15, NYMEX WTI crude oil front-month futures will settle at or above 92.00 USD per barrel, up from the 86.42 USD close reported on 2026-08-20.
KKR-20260822-32manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-222026-09-1650%military/conflictA single Russian strike on one Ukrainian locality, occurring between 2026-08-24 and 2026-09-13, produces an official Ukrainian death toll of 15 or more.
KKR-20260827-80manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-272026-09-1612%economics_marketsThe Federal Open Market Committee raises the target federal funds rate range at the conclusion of its September 15-16, 2026 meeting.
KKR-20260827-103control/baserate2026-08-272026-09-1625%economics_marketsThe Federal Open Market Committee raises the target federal funds rate range at the conclusion of its September 15-16, 2026 meeting.
KKR-20260829-76manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-292026-09-1620%economics/marketsThe Federal Open Market Committee will announce a lower federal funds target range at the conclusion of its September 15-16, 2026 meeting than the range set in July 2026.
KKR-20260831-69manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-312026-09-1645%military_conflictA commercial or military vessel is struck, mined, or seized in or near the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-14.
KKR-20260831-72manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-312026-09-1640%disaster_infrastructureNepal's government or GDACS reports a cumulative confirmed death toll of 100 or more from the late-August 2026 flood, landslide, and hydropower-site disaster, as of 2026-09-14.
KKR-20260831-76control/baserate2026-08-312026-09-1653%military_conflictA commercial or military vessel is struck, mined, or seized in or near the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-14.
KKR-20260831-79control/baserate2026-08-312026-09-1652%disaster_infrastructureNepal's government or GDACS reports a cumulative confirmed death toll of 100 or more from the late-August 2026 flood, landslide, and hydropower-site disaster, as of 2026-09-14.
KKR-20260901-04manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-012026-09-1678%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog records 3 or more entries with dateAdded between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-14.
KKR-20260903-27manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-032026-09-1672%economicThe FOMC holds its federal funds target range unchanged at its September 15-16, 2026 meeting. Reference: 3.50-3.75 percent target range in effect on the packet date.
KKR-20260903-58control/baserate2026-09-032026-09-1621%economicThe FOMC holds its federal funds target range unchanged at its September 15-16, 2026 meeting. Reference: 3.50-3.75 percent target range in effect on the packet date.
KKR-20260904-10lmstudio/realist2026-09-042026-09-1625%cyberBetween 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-13, a cyberattack exploiting the Chrome V8 zero-day vulnerability is confirmed by at least two independent sources, including CISA or BleepingComputer, with evidence of active exploitation in the wild.
KKR-20260904-27manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-042026-09-1670%military/conflictUS envoys Steve Witkoff and/or Jared Kushner are physically present in Kyiv and meet President Zelensky in person between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-13.
KKR-20260904-57control/baserate2026-09-042026-09-1649%military/conflictUS envoys Steve Witkoff and/or Jared Kushner are physically present in Kyiv and meet President Zelensky in person between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-13.
KKR-20260906-71manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-062026-09-1660%economicOn 2026-09-16, the Federal Open Market Committee will raise its federal funds target range above the current 3.50 to 3.75 percent range. Reference: 3.50-3.75 percent target range in effect on the packet date, 2026-09-06.
KKR-20260906-97control/baserate2026-09-062026-09-1621%economicOn 2026-09-16, the Federal Open Market Committee will raise its federal funds target range above the current 3.50 to 3.75 percent range. Reference: 3.50-3.75 percent target range in effect on the packet date, 2026-09-06.
KKR-20260729-02lmstudio/auto2026-07-292026-09-1725%economics/marketsBetween 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-17, the S&P 500 index closes below 7,000 points for three consecutive trading days.
KKR-20260804-24manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-042026-09-1740%disasterThe National Interagency Fire Center posts National Preparedness Level 5 on at least one day between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-15.
KKR-20260804-40control/baserate2026-08-042026-09-1725%disasterThe National Interagency Fire Center posts National Preparedness Level 5 on at least one day between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-15.
KKR-20260809-14manual/sonnet-52026-08-092026-09-1730%military/conflictBetween 2026-08-16 and 2026-09-15, the Yemen-based Houthi movement claims responsibility for a new attack on Saudi Arabian oil, gas, or energy infrastructure, separate from the 2026-08-09 Aramco refinery incident.
KKR-20260809-15manual/sonnet-52026-08-092026-09-1792%military/conflictBetween 2026-08-16 and 2026-09-15, at least one additional Russian missile, drone, or artillery strike on Odesa oblast, Ukraine is reported and corroborated by sources on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides.
KKR-20260817-22manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-172026-09-176%military/conflictBetween 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-15, the United States government takes a formal, documented action asserting a sovereignty or territorial claim over any part of the Strait of Hormuz, beyond rhetorical statements by the President.
KKR-20260817-26control/baserate2026-08-172026-09-1750%military/conflictBetween 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-15, the United States government takes a formal, documented action asserting a sovereignty or territorial claim over any part of the Strait of Hormuz, beyond rhetorical statements by the President.
KKR-20260817-39manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-172026-09-178%military/conflictThe United States military strikes a target inside Oman between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14.
KKR-20260817-41manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-172026-09-1737%cyberCISA adds a VMware vCenter Server CVE to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a Date Added value between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14.
KKR-20260817-45manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-172026-09-1755%crime/securityVirginia prosecutors file adult criminal charges against the campus shooting suspect between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14.
KKR-20260817-47control/baserate2026-08-172026-09-1750%military/conflictThe United States military strikes a target inside Oman between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14.
KKR-20260817-49control/baserate2026-08-172026-09-1723%cyberCISA adds a VMware vCenter Server CVE to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a Date Added value between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14.
KKR-20260817-53control/baserate2026-08-172026-09-1731%crime/securityVirginia prosecutors file adult criminal charges against the campus shooting suspect between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14.
KKR-20260829-02lmstudio/auto2026-08-292026-09-1725%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog will include at least one new exploited vulnerability between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-15.
KKR-20260829-05lmstudio/auto2026-08-292026-09-1735%cyberA cyberattack exploiting a flaw in PaperCut software will be confirmed by BleepingComputer between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-15.
KKR-20260829-07lmstudio/auto2026-08-292026-09-1730%military/conflictA drone strike on Gaza City will be confirmed by Al Jazeera and BBC World between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-15.
KKR-20260829-09lmstudio/auto2026-08-292026-09-1725%cyberA major cyberattack exploiting a flaw in the Cosmos EVM will be confirmed by The Hacker News between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-15.
KKR-20260901-24manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-012026-09-1730%disasterThe confirmed or officially reported Nepal flood death toll reaches 1300 or more at any point between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-15.
KKR-20260902-21control/baserate2026-09-022026-09-1752%disasterThe confirmed or officially reported Nepal flood death toll reaches 1300 or more at any point between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-15.
KKR-20260727-04kfk/halflife2026-07-272026-09-1850%military/conflictMajor General David W. Gardner will no longer be named as commanding officer of the 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault) in the source of record on 2026-09-18.
KKR-20260807-14manual/opus-52026-08-072026-09-1845%disasterThe Copernicus Climate Change Service ranks August 2026 among the three warmest Augusts on record for Europe.
KKR-20260813-26manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-132026-09-1822%disasterUSGS records at least one magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake within 250 km of the epicenter of event us6000tjl2, with origin time between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14.
KKR-20260813-31control/baserate2026-08-132026-09-1833%disasterUSGS records at least one magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake within 250 km of the epicenter of event us6000tjl2, with origin time between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14.
KKR-20260817-02manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-172026-09-1888%military/conflictUkrainian drones or missiles strike a target at least 100 km from the Ukraine-Russia border inside Russia, causing fire, damage, or casualties, between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-15.
KKR-20260817-07control/baserate2026-08-172026-09-1850%military/conflictUkrainian drones or missiles strike a target at least 100 km from the Ukraine-Russia border inside Russia, causing fire, damage, or casualties, between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-15.
KKR-20260818-22manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-182026-09-1810%cyberCVE-2026-19478, the critical GitLab GraphQL flaw patched 2026-08-17, will be added to the CISA KEV catalog between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-16.
KKR-20260818-38control/baserate2026-08-182026-09-1823%cyberCVE-2026-19478, the critical GitLab GraphQL flaw patched 2026-08-17, will be added to the CISA KEV catalog between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-16.
KKR-20260819-24manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-192026-09-1850%disasterBetween 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-16, USGS catalogs at least one aftershock of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 150 km of the M7.7 Ende, Indonesia epicenter recorded 2026-08-19.
KKR-20260819-45control/baserate2026-08-192026-09-1833%disasterBetween 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-16, USGS catalogs at least one aftershock of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 150 km of the M7.7 Ende, Indonesia epicenter recorded 2026-08-19.
KKR-20260827-21manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-272026-09-1855%disasterThe confirmed death toll in Nepal from the 26 August 2026 Bhotekoshi-Trishuli avalanche flash flood reaches at least 250 by 2026-09-16, as published by Nepal Police, the Office of the Prime Minister of Nepal, or the NDRRMA.
KKR-20260827-22manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-272026-09-1830%economicsThe FOMC raises the federal funds target range at its scheduled meeting on 2026-09-16, moving it above the 3.50 to 3.75 percent range held since 2026-07-29.
KKR-20260827-28control/baserate2026-08-272026-09-1833%disasterThe confirmed death toll in Nepal from the 26 August 2026 Bhotekoshi-Trishuli avalanche flash flood reaches at least 250 by 2026-09-16, as published by Nepal Police, the Office of the Prime Minister of Nepal, or the NDRRMA.
KKR-20260827-36control/baserate2026-08-272026-09-1825%economicsThe FOMC raises the federal funds target range at its scheduled meeting on 2026-09-16, moving it above the 3.50 to 3.75 percent range held since 2026-07-29.
KKR-20260827-67manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-272026-09-1840%economics/marketsThe FOMC raises the target range for the federal funds rate above 3.50-3.75 percent at its scheduled 2026-09-16 meeting.
KKR-20260827-90control/baserate2026-08-272026-09-1825%economics/marketsThe FOMC raises the target range for the federal funds rate above 3.50-3.75 percent at its scheduled 2026-09-16 meeting.
KKR-20260829-15manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-292026-09-1850%economicThe FOMC will leave the federal funds target range unchanged at its scheduled meeting concluding 2026-09-16, despite the hawkish Jackson Hole remarks in items 53, 55, and 56.
KKR-20260829-17manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-292026-09-1865%economics_marketsThe FOMC raises the federal funds target range by 25 basis points at its scheduled 2026-09-15 to 2026-09-16 meeting, lifting the range to 3.75-4.00 percent.
KKR-20260829-28control/baserate2026-08-292026-09-1825%economicThe FOMC will leave the federal funds target range unchanged at its scheduled meeting concluding 2026-09-16, despite the hawkish Jackson Hole remarks in items 53, 55, and 56.
KKR-20260829-30control/baserate2026-08-292026-09-1825%economics_marketsThe FOMC raises the federal funds target range by 25 basis points at its scheduled 2026-09-15 to 2026-09-16 meeting, lifting the range to 3.75-4.00 percent.
KKR-20260829-75manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-292026-09-1880%economics/marketsThe FOMC statement of 2026-09-16 leaves the federal funds target range at or above the pre-meeting range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent.
KKR-20260829-77manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-292026-09-1852%economicsAt the scheduled 2026-09-16 FOMC decision the Committee raises the federal funds target range to 3.75 to 4.00 percent.
KKR-20260901-03manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-012026-09-1825%economicThe FOMC raises the federal funds target range at its scheduled 2026-09-16 decision, above the current 3.50 to 3.75 percent.
KKR-20260901-05manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-012026-09-1812%economicThe Federal Open Market Committee raises the federal funds target range at its September 15-16, 2026 meeting.
KKR-20260901-06manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-012026-09-1830%economics/marketsThe FOMC decision announced 2026-09-16 raises the federal funds target range above the range in effect on 2026-09-15.
KKR-20260901-20manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-012026-09-1835%military/conflictAt least one additional commercial vessel is struck, attacked, boarded, or seized in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-16.
KKR-20260902-17control/baserate2026-09-022026-09-1853%military/conflictAt least one additional commercial vessel is struck, attacked, boarded, or seized in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-16.
KKR-20260902-50manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-022026-09-1855%disasterA major US grid operator among PJM, MISO, ERCOT, SPP, NYISO, ISO-NE, CAISO declares an Energy Emergency Alert Level 2 or higher effective on a date between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-16.
KKR-20260902-69control/baserate2026-09-022026-09-1836%disasterA major US grid operator among PJM, MISO, ERCOT, SPP, NYISO, ISO-NE, CAISO declares an Energy Emergency Alert Level 2 or higher effective on a date between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-16.
KKR-20260903-04manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-032026-09-1875%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one CVE with vendorProject SonicWall and a product field naming SMA1000 or SMA 1000 series appliances, with dateAdded between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-16.
KKR-20260903-11control/baserate2026-09-032026-09-1830%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one CVE with vendorProject SonicWall and a product field naming SMA1000 or SMA 1000 series appliances, with dateAdded between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-16.
KKR-20260903-47manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-032026-09-1885%economics_marketsThe FOMC statement issued on 2026-09-16 leaves the federal funds target range unchanged from the range in effect on the packet date. Reference: target range 3.50 to 3.75 percent on 2026-09-03.
KKR-20260903-78control/baserate2026-09-032026-09-1821%economics_marketsThe FOMC statement issued on 2026-09-16 leaves the federal funds target range unchanged from the range in effect on the packet date. Reference: target range 3.50 to 3.75 percent on 2026-09-03.
KKR-20260904-11lmstudio/realist2026-09-042026-09-1830%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-09 and 2026-09-15, Iran launches a coordinated missile and drone attack on Israeli military installations in the Golan Heights, confirmed by at least two hostile sides (IL, PS) with casualty reports.
KKR-20260904-15manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-042026-09-1855%military/conflictUS envoys representing the Trump administration will hold in-person meetings with senior government officials in both Moscow and Kyiv between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-16 as part of the announced mediation relaunch.
KKR-20260904-16manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-042026-09-1812%economics/marketsThe FOMC will cut its federal funds target range below the current 3.50-3.75 percent range, held through a 9-3 vote at the July 29, 2026 meeting, at its next meeting on September 16, 2026.
KKR-20260904-25manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-042026-09-1852%economics/marketsAt its scheduled 2026-09-15 to 2026-09-16 meeting the FOMC raises the federal funds target range above the range held at seal (reference: 3.50 to 3.75 percent on the packet date).
KKR-20260904-37manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-042026-09-1878%economics/marketsThe FOMC raises the federal funds target range at its scheduled 2026-09-16 decision. Reference: target range 3.50 to 3.75 percent on the packet date 2026-09-04.
KKR-20260904-45control/baserate2026-09-042026-09-1849%military/conflictUS envoys representing the Trump administration will hold in-person meetings with senior government officials in both Moscow and Kyiv between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-16 as part of the announced mediation relaunch.
KKR-20260904-46control/baserate2026-09-042026-09-1821%economics/marketsThe FOMC will cut its federal funds target range below the current 3.50-3.75 percent range, held through a 9-3 vote at the July 29, 2026 meeting, at its next meeting on September 16, 2026.
KKR-20260904-55control/baserate2026-09-042026-09-1821%economics/marketsAt its scheduled 2026-09-15 to 2026-09-16 meeting the FOMC raises the federal funds target range above the range held at seal (reference: 3.50 to 3.75 percent on the packet date).
KKR-20260904-67control/baserate2026-09-042026-09-1821%economics/marketsThe FOMC raises the federal funds target range at its scheduled 2026-09-16 decision. Reference: target range 3.50 to 3.75 percent on the packet date 2026-09-04.
KKR-20260906-75manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-062026-09-1830%economics/marketsAt the scheduled FOMC meeting concluding 2026-09-16, the Committee raises the federal funds target range above the range in effect at packet seal. Reference: target range 3.50 to 3.75 percent on 2026-09-06 (FRED series DFEDTARU upper limit 3.75).
KKR-20260906-83manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-062026-09-1835%economics/marketsThe FOMC statement issued 2026-09-16 announces an increase in the federal funds target range. Reference: range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent in effect on the packet date.
KKR-20260906-101control/baserate2026-09-062026-09-1821%economics/marketsAt the scheduled FOMC meeting concluding 2026-09-16, the Committee raises the federal funds target range above the range in effect at packet seal. Reference: target range 3.50 to 3.75 percent on 2026-09-06 (FRED series DFEDTARU upper limit 3.75).
KKR-20260906-109control/baserate2026-09-062026-09-1821%economics/marketsThe FOMC statement issued 2026-09-16 announces an increase in the federal funds target range. Reference: range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent in effect on the packet date.
KKR-20260827-05manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-272026-09-1940%cyberA CVE tied to the Microsoft SharePoint remote code execution exploit chain reported under active targeting on 2026-08-26 will be added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-17.
KKR-20260827-37control/baserate2026-08-272026-09-1923%cyberA CVE tied to the Microsoft SharePoint remote code execution exploit chain reported under active targeting on 2026-08-26 will be added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-17.
KKR-20260831-04lmstudio/auto2026-08-312026-09-2022%military/conflictIran launches a missile attack on a U.S. military installation in the Persian Gulf region between 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-17.
KKR-20260817-54manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-172026-09-2185%military/conflictBetween 2026-08-18 and 2026-09-17 at least one drone attack on Moscow city or Moscow oblast is reported by the Moscow mayor or the Russian Ministry of Defense and by at least one Ukrainian or Western outlet.
KKR-20260817-62control/baserate2026-08-172026-09-2150%military/conflictBetween 2026-08-18 and 2026-09-17 at least one drone attack on Moscow city or Moscow oblast is reported by the Moscow mayor or the Russian Ministry of Defense and by at least one Ukrainian or Western outlet.
KKR-20260819-22manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-192026-09-2138%economicBetween 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-18, the 10-Year Treasury constant maturity yield (FRED series DGS10) closes at or above 4.85 percent on at least one trading day, up from 4.65 percent on 2026-08-19.
KKR-20260819-43control/baserate2026-08-192026-09-2125%economicBetween 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-18, the 10-Year Treasury constant maturity yield (FRED series DGS10) closes at or above 4.85 percent on at least one trading day, up from 4.65 percent on 2026-08-19.
KKR-20260822-11manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-222026-09-2120%disaster_infrastructureBetween 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-18, the USGS catalog records an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 150 km of the August 21, 2026 M6.7 Peru mainshock epicenter near Aniso, Peru.
KKR-20260902-49manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-022026-09-2178%military/conflictAt least one US military strike on a target inside Iranian territory occurring between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-16 is acknowledged by US official channels and reported by Iranian state media.
KKR-20260902-68control/baserate2026-09-022026-09-2149%military/conflictAt least one US military strike on a target inside Iranian territory occurring between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-16 is acknowledged by US official channels and reported by Iranian state media.
KKR-20260903-23manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-032026-09-2130%military_conflictIran or an Iran-aligned force conducts another confirmed strike (drone, missile, or cruise) against a target inside Kuwait or another Gulf Cooperation Council state between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-19.
KKR-20260903-41manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-032026-09-2185%economics/marketsThe Federal Open Market Committee leaves the federal funds target range unchanged at its scheduled September 2026 meeting, per the FOMC statement posted at federalreserve.gov.
KKR-20260903-54control/baserate2026-09-032026-09-2149%military_conflictIran or an Iran-aligned force conducts another confirmed strike (drone, missile, or cruise) against a target inside Kuwait or another Gulf Cooperation Council state between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-19.
KKR-20260903-72control/baserate2026-09-032026-09-2121%economics/marketsThe Federal Open Market Committee leaves the federal funds target range unchanged at its scheduled September 2026 meeting, per the FOMC statement posted at federalreserve.gov.
KKR-20260904-12lmstudio/realist2026-09-042026-09-2132%cyberBetween 2026-09-13 and 2026-09-19, a cyberattack targeting the Ukrainian power grid is confirmed by at least two hostile sides (RU, UA), with sustained outages reported in Kyiv.
KKR-20260906-03manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-062026-09-2152%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds a new entry for a Citrix NetScaler authentication-bypass vulnerability, with a Date Added value between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-19, following the 2026-09-04 BleepingComputer report of active exploitation.
KKR-20260906-06manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-062026-09-2113%disaster_infrastructureGDACS raises its alert level for Tropical Cyclone TWENTYTHREE-26 (event ID 1001319) from Green to Orange or Red before the system dissipates, at any point between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-19. Reference: Green alert as of 2026-09-04.
KKR-20260906-30control/baserate2026-09-062026-09-2130%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds a new entry for a Citrix NetScaler authentication-bypass vulnerability, with a Date Added value between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-19, following the 2026-09-04 BleepingComputer report of active exploitation.
KKR-20260906-33control/baserate2026-09-062026-09-2136%disaster_infrastructureGDACS raises its alert level for Tropical Cyclone TWENTYTHREE-26 (event ID 1001319) from Green to Orange or Red before the system dissipates, at any point between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-19. Reference: Green alert as of 2026-09-04.
KKR-20260813-22manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-132026-09-2280%cyberBetween 2026-08-14 and 2026-09-18, CISA adds at least one Microsoft SharePoint Server CVE to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog.
KKR-20260813-27control/baserate2026-08-132026-09-2233%cyberBetween 2026-08-14 and 2026-09-18, CISA adds at least one Microsoft SharePoint Server CVE to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog.
KKR-20260817-21manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-172026-09-2215%military/conflictBetween 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-20, Qatar and Iran issue public statements that converge on a single account of the fate of the three Iranian pilots Qatar allegedly shot down in March 2026, either confirming them alive and held or confirming their deaths.
KKR-20260817-24manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-172026-09-2240%politicalBetween 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-20, the US Navy or Department of Defense publicly confirms that USS George Washington has relieved USS Abraham Lincoln on its Middle East deployment station.
KKR-20260817-25control/baserate2026-08-172026-09-2250%military/conflictBetween 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-20, Qatar and Iran issue public statements that converge on a single account of the fate of the three Iranian pilots Qatar allegedly shot down in March 2026, either confirming them alive and held or confirming their deaths.
KKR-20260817-28control/baserate2026-08-172026-09-2229%politicalBetween 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-20, the US Navy or Department of Defense publicly confirms that USS George Washington has relieved USS Abraham Lincoln on its Middle East deployment station.
KKR-20260818-09manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-182026-09-2290%military/conflictRussian forces strike Kyiv with missiles or drones at least once between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-18, confirmed by Ukrainian officials and carried by a major international wire service.
KKR-20260818-25control/baserate2026-08-182026-09-2250%military/conflictRussian forces strike Kyiv with missiles or drones at least once between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-18, confirmed by Ukrainian officials and carried by a major international wire service.
KKR-20260820-09manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-202026-09-2265%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds a CVE affecting Zimbra Collaboration with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-18.
KKR-20260822-09manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-222026-09-2245%cyberCISA adds CVE-2026-19478, the GitLab CE/EE GraphQL code-injection flaw (CVSS 9.4) reported exploited in the wild on 2026-08-19, to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-18.
KKR-20260822-10manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-222026-09-2225%cyberCISA adds CVE-2026-69836, the Microsoft Entra ID deserialization remote code execution flaw (CVSS 10.0) that Microsoft says was exploited and is already mitigated server-side, to the KEV catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-18.
KKR-20260822-12manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-222026-09-2255%cyberBetween 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-18, the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry for CVE-2026-19478, the GitLab remote code execution flaw reported under active exploitation on 2026-08-21.
KKR-20260822-13manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-222026-09-2230%cyberBetween 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-18, the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry for a Microsoft Entra ID product vulnerability, corresponding to the maximum-severity flaw Microsoft disclosed as under active exploitation on 2026-08-21.
KKR-20260822-14manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-222026-09-2215%military_conflictBetween 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-18, United States military forces carry out a kinetic strike on a target inside Iranian sovereign territory, including territorial waters.
KKR-20260822-15manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-222026-09-2225%crime_securityBetween 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-18, Swedish police or prosecutors publicly classify the August 21, 2026 sword attack at a Swedish school as a terrorist offense under Swedish law.
KKR-20260827-11manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-272026-09-2252%disasterThe confirmed death toll from the Nepal-Tibet border flash floods and avalanche first reported 2026-08-26 will reach at least 50, as stated by Nepal's Ministry of Home Affairs or a wire service, between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-20.
KKR-20260827-43control/baserate2026-08-272026-09-2233%disasterThe confirmed death toll from the Nepal-Tibet border flash floods and avalanche first reported 2026-08-26 will reach at least 50, as stated by Nepal's Ministry of Home Affairs or a wire service, between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-20.
KKR-20260829-48manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-292026-09-2252%disasterThe confirmed death toll from the 26 August 2026 Nepal-Tibet glacial flood disaster will exceed 1,000 people at some point between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-19.
KKR-20260829-67control/baserate2026-08-292026-09-2252%disasterThe confirmed death toll from the 26 August 2026 Nepal-Tibet glacial flood disaster will exceed 1,000 people at some point between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-19.
KKR-20260903-29manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-032026-09-2255%economics/marketsThe Bank of Japan raises its short-term policy interest rate at the Monetary Policy Meeting concluding 2026-09-18, to a level above the rate in effect on 2026-09-03.
KKR-20260903-60control/baserate2026-09-032026-09-2221%economics/marketsThe Bank of Japan raises its short-term policy interest rate at the Monetary Policy Meeting concluding 2026-09-18, to a level above the rate in effect on 2026-09-03.
KKR-20260904-17manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-042026-09-2285%economics/marketsTreasury/OFAC will publish at least one additional Iran-related sanctions designation under Operation Economic Outcast between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-19, continuing the near-weekly cadence announced by Secretary Bessent.
KKR-20260904-18manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-042026-09-2214%disasterGDACS will upgrade at least one of its four Green forest-fire alerts logged 2026-09-04 (Mozambique event 1031563, DR Congo event 1031500, Zambia event 1031562, Ethiopia event 1031529) to Orange or Red between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-19.
KKR-20260904-31manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-042026-09-2285%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one Google Chrome or Chromium V8 entry with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-04 and 2026-09-18.
KKR-20260904-47control/baserate2026-09-042026-09-2221%economics/marketsTreasury/OFAC will publish at least one additional Iran-related sanctions designation under Operation Economic Outcast between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-19, continuing the near-weekly cadence announced by Secretary Bessent.
KKR-20260904-48control/baserate2026-09-042026-09-2236%disasterGDACS will upgrade at least one of its four Green forest-fire alerts logged 2026-09-04 (Mozambique event 1031563, DR Congo event 1031500, Zambia event 1031562, Ethiopia event 1031529) to Orange or Red between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-19.
KKR-20260904-61control/baserate2026-09-042026-09-2230%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one Google Chrome or Chromium V8 entry with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-04 and 2026-09-18.
KKR-20260906-01manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-062026-09-2238%military_conflictCumulative fatalities from the Yemen government-Houthi fighting referenced in the 2026-09-05 packet (ground combat, missile strikes) exceed 100 people, tallied at any point between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-20.
KKR-20260906-28control/baserate2026-09-062026-09-2249%military_conflictCumulative fatalities from the Yemen government-Houthi fighting referenced in the 2026-09-05 packet (ground combat, missile strikes) exceed 100 people, tallied at any point between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-20.
KKR-20260906-78manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-062026-09-2275%crime/securityBetween 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-20 inclusive, Victoria Police announce that a person has been arrested and charged over the alleged axe attack in Victoria, Australia, reported by the Guardian on 2026-09-06, that left three people with life-threatening injuries.
KKR-20260906-104control/baserate2026-09-062026-09-2236%crime/securityBetween 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-20 inclusive, Victoria Police announce that a person has been arrested and charged over the alleged axe attack in Victoria, Australia, reported by the Guardian on 2026-09-06, that left three people with life-threatening injuries.
KKR-20260812-11manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-122026-09-2365%military/conflictNorth Korea conducts at least one further ballistic missile launch between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-20.
KKR-20260812-28control/baserate2026-08-122026-09-2333%military/conflictNorth Korea conducts at least one further ballistic missile launch between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-20.
KKR-20260819-09manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-192026-09-2340%military/conflictAt least one missile or drone strike on United Arab Emirates territory attributed to Iran or Iran-aligned forces occurs between 2026-08-20 and 2026-09-20.
KKR-20260819-30control/baserate2026-08-192026-09-2350%military/conflictAt least one missile or drone strike on United Arab Emirates territory attributed to Iran or Iran-aligned forces occurs between 2026-08-20 and 2026-09-20.
KKR-20260820-14manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-202026-09-2370%military/conflictA Russian missile or drone strike on the city of Kyiv occurring between 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-20 kills five or more people.
KKR-20260820-21manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-202026-09-238%politicalBetween 2026-08-20 and 2026-09-20, Zelenskyy or the Ukrainian government will officially announce a specific date for a wartime presidential election, confirmed by two or more major wire services.
KKR-20260820-29manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-202026-09-2375%disaster_infrastructureUSGS catalogs an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 300 km of the 2026-08-20 Ende, Indonesia M7.7 epicenter, with origin time between 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-20.
KKR-20260822-39manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-222026-09-2315%disasterBetween 2026-08-24 and 2026-09-21, an aftershock of magnitude 6.0 or greater will occur within 250 km of the August 21, 2026 magnitude 6.7 earthquake near Aniso, Peru.
KKR-20260831-70manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-312026-09-2330%economicICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above USD 95.00 per barrel on any session between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-21.
KKR-20260831-74manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-312026-09-2355%politicalGerman federal or state authorities publicly name a suspect or announce charges in the Leipzig drone attack on a Ukrainian-linked aircraft, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-21.
KKR-20260831-77control/baserate2026-08-312026-09-2325%economicICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above USD 95.00 per barrel on any session between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-21.
KKR-20260831-81control/baserate2026-08-312026-09-2344%politicalGerman federal or state authorities publicly name a suspect or announce charges in the Leipzig drone attack on a Ukrainian-linked aircraft, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-21.
KKR-20260809-07manual/opus-52026-08-092026-09-2425%military/conflictIran and Oman publicly announce a concluded arrangement governing commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, announced between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-20.
KKR-20260813-24manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-132026-09-2438%military_conflictBetween 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-20, Iranian forces seize, board, or detain at least one commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Oman.
KKR-20260813-29control/baserate2026-08-132026-09-2433%military_conflictBetween 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-20, Iranian forces seize, board, or detain at least one commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Oman.
KKR-20260813-33manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-132026-09-2430%cyberA specific victim organization of the City-Forum data-theft campaign against Salesforce Experience Cloud and ServiceNow portals will be publicly named, by the victim, by Reco, or by another named security-research firm, between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-22.
KKR-20260813-37control/baserate2026-08-132026-09-2433%cyberA specific victim organization of the City-Forum data-theft campaign against Salesforce Experience Cloud and ServiceNow portals will be publicly named, by the victim, by Reco, or by another named security-research firm, between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-22.
KKR-20260817-11manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-172026-09-2430%military_conflictUkrainian long-range strikes halt loadings at a named Russian crude export terminal - Novorossiysk, Tuapse, Primorsk, or Ust-Luga - with the strike occurring between 2026-08-24 and 2026-09-21.
KKR-20260817-16control/baserate2026-08-172026-09-2450%military_conflictUkrainian long-range strikes halt loadings at a named Russian crude export terminal - Novorossiysk, Tuapse, Primorsk, or Ust-Luga - with the strike occurring between 2026-08-24 and 2026-09-21.
KKR-20260820-25manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-202026-09-2455%military_conflictA single Russian strike on Kyiv city occurring between 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-20 kills at least 10 people according to Ukrainian official figures.
KKR-20260831-02lmstudio/auto2026-08-312026-09-2445%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog includes at least one new exploited vulnerability with a public exploit between 2026-09-15 and 2026-09-22.
KKR-20260906-63lmstudio/realist2026-09-062026-09-2430%cyberOn 2026-09-22, the CISA KEV catalog will include at least one new entry for a vulnerability exploited in the wild, with a date-added value between 2026-09-17 and 2026-09-21.
KKR-20260727-02kfk/halflife2026-07-272026-09-2550%military/conflictMajor General Brandon R. Tegtmeier will no longer be named as commanding officer of the 82nd Airborne Division in the source of record on 2026-09-25.
KKR-20260727-05kfk/halflife2026-07-272026-09-2550%military/conflictLieutenant General Benedikt Roos will no longer be named as commanding officer of the Swiss Armed Forces in the source of record on 2026-09-25.
KKR-20260727-06kfk/halflife2026-07-272026-09-2550%military/conflictLieutenant General Sullay Ibrahim Sesay will no longer be named as commanding officer of the Sierra Leone - national armed forces in the source of record on 2026-09-25.
KKR-20260727-07kfk/halflife2026-07-272026-09-2550%military/conflictGeneral Olufemi Oluyede will no longer be named as commanding officer of the Nigeria - national armed forces in the source of record on 2026-09-25.
KKR-20260727-08kfk/halflife2026-07-272026-09-2550%military/conflictArmy corps general Lassina Doumbia will no longer be named as commanding officer of the Ivory Coast - national armed forces in the source of record on 2026-09-25.
KKR-20260727-09kfk/halflife2026-07-272026-09-2550%military/conflictAir Chief Marshal Richard Knighton will no longer be named as commanding officer of the United Kingdom - national armed forces in the source of record on 2026-09-25.
KKR-20260727-10kfk/halflife2026-07-272026-09-2550%military/conflictGeneral Luciano Portolano will no longer be named as commanding officer of the Italy - national armed forces in the source of record on 2026-09-25.
KKR-20260801-19manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-012026-09-2515%crime/securityThe Department of Justice will publicly release the Epstein-related documents subject to the New Mexico deadline noted in reporting as of 2026-08-01, on or before 2026-09-25.
KKR-20260822-26manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-222026-09-2510%disasterUSGS records an earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or greater within 100 km of the 2026-08-20 M6.7 Aniso, Peru epicenter (14.641 S, 73.524 W) with origin time between 2026-08-24 and 2026-09-23.
KKR-20260901-23manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-012026-09-2520%cyberCISA adds at least one new Microsoft Exchange Server vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-23.
KKR-20260902-20control/baserate2026-09-022026-09-2533%cyberCISA adds at least one new Microsoft Exchange Server vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-23.
KKR-20260903-25manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-032026-09-2560%economicICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above 90.00 USD/bbl on 2026-09-25. Reference: 96.70 on the packet date (2026-09-03).
KKR-20260903-26manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-032026-09-2568%economicCOMEX gold front-month futures settle at or above 4300.00 USD/oz on 2026-09-25. Reference: 4546.20 on the packet date (2026-09-03).
KKR-20260903-56control/baserate2026-09-032026-09-2521%economicICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above 90.00 USD/bbl on 2026-09-25. Reference: 96.70 on the packet date (2026-09-03).
KKR-20260903-57control/baserate2026-09-032026-09-2521%economicCOMEX gold front-month futures settle at or above 4300.00 USD/oz on 2026-09-25. Reference: 4546.20 on the packet date (2026-09-03).
KKR-20260827-06manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-272026-09-2618%cyberNorway's National Security Authority or Police Security Service will publicly name a specific threat actor, group, or state as responsible for the 2026-08-25 DDoS attack on Norwegian government digital services, in a statement dated between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-24.
KKR-20260827-38control/baserate2026-08-272026-09-2623%cyberNorway's National Security Authority or Police Security Service will publicly name a specific threat actor, group, or state as responsible for the 2026-08-25 DDoS attack on Norwegian government digital services, in a statement dated between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-24.
KKR-20260906-64lmstudio/realist2026-09-062026-09-2625%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a drone strike will be confirmed by at least two hostile sides in the Kyiv theater, with weapons reported as drone and casualties stated in at least one corroborating report.
KKR-20260831-06lmstudio/auto2026-08-312026-09-2735%cyberA cyberattack exploiting a known vulnerability in Cisco routers, confirmed by CISA, occurs between 2026-09-18 and 2026-09-25.
KKR-20260906-65lmstudio/realist2026-09-062026-09-2735%disasterBetween 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-25, a volcanic eruption will cause flight cancellations at Jakarta International Airport, with at least 100,000 passengers stranded, as confirmed by two independent sources.
KKR-20260906-66lmstudio/realist2026-09-062026-09-2730%politicalBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-25, Iran will issue a public statement via a hostile side (AXIS or WEST) claiming a 'more painful' response to U.S. attacks, with the statement confirmed by two independent sources.
KKR-20260906-67lmstudio/realist2026-09-062026-09-2735%cyberBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-25, a cyberattack exploiting a zero-day vulnerability in Magento or Adobe Commerce will be confirmed by two independent sources, with the attack resulting in data exfiltration.
KKR-20260726-17lmstudio/auto2026-07-262026-09-2810%cyberA major cyberattack on a U.S. state government website results in public data exposure between 2026-09-25 and 2026-09-28.
KKR-20260818-23manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-182026-09-2845%crime/securityA jury will return a verdict, guilty or not guilty, in the Duane Keffe D Davis murder trial in Clark County, Nevada, between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-25.
KKR-20260818-39control/baserate2026-08-182026-09-2831%crime/securityA jury will return a verdict, guilty or not guilty, in the Duane Keffe D Davis murder trial in Clark County, Nevada, between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-25.
KKR-20260820-22manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-202026-09-2850%crime_securityBetween 2026-08-20 and 2026-09-24, Jewel Howard-Taylor, former Vice President of Liberia charged 2026-08-19 with drug trafficking and money laundering, will make a first court appearance in Liberia, reported by Reuters, AP, or BBC.
KKR-20260902-58manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-022026-09-2828%economicThe 10-year US Treasury note yield closes at or above 5.00 percent on any trading day between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-25. Reference: 4.80 percent on the packet date, 2026-09-02.
KKR-20260902-59manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-022026-09-2860%cyberCISA adds a SonicWall SMA1000 vulnerability tied to the zero-days reported as actively exploited on 2026-09-02 to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog, with dateAdded between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-23.
KKR-20260902-60manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-022026-09-2820%cyberCISA adds a GeoNetwork remote-code-execution vulnerability, the unauthenticated RCE chain reported affecting government geoportal backends on 2026-09-02, to the KEV catalog, with dateAdded between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-23.
KKR-20260902-62manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-022026-09-2855%disaster_infrastructureNepal's National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority reports a confirmed death toll of at least 1,500 from the August-September 2026 Nepal-Tibet floods, reported between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-23.
KKR-20260902-77control/baserate2026-09-022026-09-2821%economicThe 10-year US Treasury note yield closes at or above 5.00 percent on any trading day between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-25. Reference: 4.80 percent on the packet date, 2026-09-02.
KKR-20260902-78control/baserate2026-09-022026-09-2830%cyberCISA adds a SonicWall SMA1000 vulnerability tied to the zero-days reported as actively exploited on 2026-09-02 to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog, with dateAdded between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-23.
KKR-20260902-79control/baserate2026-09-022026-09-2830%cyberCISA adds a GeoNetwork remote-code-execution vulnerability, the unauthenticated RCE chain reported affecting government geoportal backends on 2026-09-02, to the KEV catalog, with dateAdded between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-23.
KKR-20260902-81control/baserate2026-09-022026-09-2836%disaster_infrastructureNepal's National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority reports a confirmed death toll of at least 1,500 from the August-September 2026 Nepal-Tibet floods, reported between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-23.
KKR-20260907-01lmstudio/auto2026-09-072026-09-2845%economics/marketsBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, the S&P 500 closes above 7,800 points on at least one trading day.
KKR-20260907-03lmstudio/auto2026-09-072026-09-2820%cyberBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a new cyberattack targets a U.S. federal agency using a previously unpatched vulnerability, as confirmed by a CISA KEV entry and a government press release.
KKR-20260809-11manual/opus-52026-08-092026-09-2975%crime/securityTrial proceedings in the New York state prosecution of Luigi Mangione commence in open court between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-25.
KKR-20260815-17manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-152026-09-2945%economicThe 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate, FRED series DGS10, closes at or above 4.75 percent on at least one trading day between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-25.
KKR-20260815-20control/baserate2026-08-152026-09-2918%economicThe 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate, FRED series DGS10, closes at or above 4.75 percent on at least one trading day between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-25.
KKR-20260820-23manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-202026-09-2960%cyberCISA adds at least one Zimbra Collaboration CVE to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog, with a date-added value between 2026-08-21 and 2026-09-25.
KKR-20260827-20manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-272026-09-2975%military/conflictUKMTO publishes at least one incident advisory reporting a merchant vessel struck or damaged by a projectile, mine, or uncrewed system within 100 nautical miles of the Strait of Hormuz, anchor 26.5N 56.3E, between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-25.
KKR-20260827-27control/baserate2026-08-272026-09-2950%military/conflictUKMTO publishes at least one incident advisory reporting a merchant vessel struck or damaged by a projectile, mine, or uncrewed system within 100 nautical miles of the Strait of Hormuz, anchor 26.5N 56.3E, between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-25.
KKR-20260831-12manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-312026-09-2945%cyberManchester Airports Group, the ICO, or two independent outlets will confirm a data breach matching FulcrumSec's claimed August 2026 theft of 86 GB of data, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-27.
KKR-20260831-16manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-312026-09-2965%disaster_infrastructureThe confirmed death toll from the late-August 2026 Nepal-Tibet border floods and landslides, reported at approximately 750 with about 3000 still missing as of 2026-08-30, will exceed 900 per Nepali government or wire-service reporting, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-27.
KKR-20260831-21control/baserate2026-08-312026-09-2933%cyberManchester Airports Group, the ICO, or two independent outlets will confirm a data breach matching FulcrumSec's claimed August 2026 theft of 86 GB of data, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-27.
KKR-20260831-25control/baserate2026-08-312026-09-2952%disaster_infrastructureThe confirmed death toll from the late-August 2026 Nepal-Tibet border floods and landslides, reported at approximately 750 with about 3000 still missing as of 2026-08-30, will exceed 900 per Nepali government or wire-service reporting, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-27.
KKR-20260904-19manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-042026-09-2978%cyberThe actively exploited Chrome V8 vulnerability CVE-2026-85046, patched by Google on 2026-09-03, will be added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-25.
KKR-20260904-20manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-042026-09-2915%politicalSara Duterte will be held in physical government custody for more than 24 continuous hours under the Quezon City Regional Trial Court arrest warrant, at any point between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-25.
KKR-20260904-22manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-042026-09-2990%cyberCISA adds CVE-2026-85046, the Chrome V8 type confusion zero-day patched by Google on 2026-09-03, to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded between 2026-09-04 and 2026-09-25.
KKR-20260904-30manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-042026-09-2928%crime/securityBetween 2026-09-11 and 2026-09-25 the NSW Supreme Court sentences Daniel Billings for the murder of Molly Ticehurst to life imprisonment or to a non-parole period of 30 years or more.
KKR-20260904-32manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-042026-09-2930%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog adds at least one entry with vendorProject CrowdStrike and a dateAdded value between 2026-09-04 and 2026-09-25, following the reported FalconFlank SYSTEM privilege zero-day.
KKR-20260904-49control/baserate2026-09-042026-09-2930%cyberThe actively exploited Chrome V8 vulnerability CVE-2026-85046, patched by Google on 2026-09-03, will be added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-25.
KKR-20260904-50control/baserate2026-09-042026-09-2935%politicalSara Duterte will be held in physical government custody for more than 24 continuous hours under the Quezon City Regional Trial Court arrest warrant, at any point between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-25.
KKR-20260904-52control/baserate2026-09-042026-09-2930%cyberCISA adds CVE-2026-85046, the Chrome V8 type confusion zero-day patched by Google on 2026-09-03, to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded between 2026-09-04 and 2026-09-25.
KKR-20260904-60control/baserate2026-09-042026-09-2936%crime/securityBetween 2026-09-11 and 2026-09-25 the NSW Supreme Court sentences Daniel Billings for the murder of Molly Ticehurst to life imprisonment or to a non-parole period of 30 years or more.
KKR-20260904-62control/baserate2026-09-042026-09-2930%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog adds at least one entry with vendorProject CrowdStrike and a dateAdded value between 2026-09-04 and 2026-09-25, following the reported FalconFlank SYSTEM privilege zero-day.
KKR-20260906-07manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-062026-09-2950%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-26, US forces strike, disable, or destroy at least one additional Iranian oil tanker or crude carrier, as announced by US Central Command.
KKR-20260906-10manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-062026-09-2990%economics/marketsBetween 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-25, the US Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control publishes at least one Iran-related designation action.
KKR-20260906-11manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-062026-09-2955%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds CVE-2026-19490 (Citrix NetScaler ADC and Gateway authentication bypass) with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-25.
KKR-20260906-13manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-062026-09-2912%disasterBetween 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-26, the USGS catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater with epicenter within 300 km of USGS event us7000tdvt (M6.3, 84 km SSW of Nikolski, Alaska).
KKR-20260906-34control/baserate2026-09-062026-09-2949%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-26, US forces strike, disable, or destroy at least one additional Iranian oil tanker or crude carrier, as announced by US Central Command.
KKR-20260906-37control/baserate2026-09-062026-09-2921%economics/marketsBetween 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-25, the US Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control publishes at least one Iran-related designation action.
KKR-20260906-38control/baserate2026-09-062026-09-2930%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds CVE-2026-19490 (Citrix NetScaler ADC and Gateway authentication bypass) with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-25.
KKR-20260906-40control/baserate2026-09-062026-09-2936%disasterBetween 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-26, the USGS catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater with epicenter within 300 km of USGS event us7000tdvt (M6.3, 84 km SSW of Nikolski, Alaska).
KKR-20260907-22manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-072026-09-2965%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog adds at least one N-able N-central vulnerability (CVE-2026-86218, CVE-2026-86207, or CVE-2026-86206) with a dateAdded between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-25.
KKR-20260907-50control/baserate2026-09-072026-09-2930%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog adds at least one N-able N-central vulnerability (CVE-2026-86218, CVE-2026-86207, or CVE-2026-86206) with a dateAdded between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-25.
KKR-20260722-16manual/fable2026-07-222026-09-3055%economicsThe United States 10-year Treasury yield closes above 4.80 percent on at least one trading day between 2026-07-23 and 2026-09-30
KKR-20260724-05manual/fable2026-07-242026-09-3038%marketsThe S&P 500 index closes below 7000 on at least one trading day between 2026-07-27 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260724-06manual/fable2026-07-242026-09-3022%military_conflictThe United States and Iran publicly announce a ceasefire or formal cessation of hostilities between 2026-07-25 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260725-02manual/fable2026-07-252026-09-3033%marketsThe S&P 500 closes at or below 7000 on at least one trading day between 2026-07-27 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260725-03manual/fable2026-07-252026-09-3018%economicsThe United States 10-year Treasury yield closes at or above 5.00 percent on at least one trading day between 2026-07-27 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260725-05manual/fable2026-07-252026-09-3020%military_conflictThe United States and Iran publicly announce a ceasefire or formal cessation of hostilities between 2026-07-27 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260726-09manual/fable2026-07-262026-09-3015%disasterFrench authorities order a mandatory evacuation of any arrondissement inside Bordeaux city proper due to wildfire between 2026-07-26 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260727-20manual/fable2026-07-272026-09-3055%politicalAt least three separately published national voting-intention polls will place Reform UK ahead of Labour, each with fieldwork ending between 2026-07-28 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260727-22manual/fable2026-07-272026-09-3068%politicalThe United States Senate will confirm Jay Clayton to the intelligence post for which he was nominated, on or before 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260727-24manual/fable2026-07-272026-09-3047%military/conflictThe Israeli cabinet will publicly approve an expansion of ground operations in Gaza beyond the limited force approved in July 2026, on or before 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260727-30manual/opus-52026-07-272026-09-3040%cyberOpenAI publishes a public incident report or postmortem covering the agent-related compromise reported on 2026-07-27, on or before 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260727-34manual/opus-52026-07-272026-09-3055%crime/securityAt least one person is formally charged with a homicide offense in connection with the 2026-07-26 Seattle festival shooting, on or before 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260727-35manual/opus-52026-07-272026-09-3065%economics/marketsCXMT shares close below their first-trading-day closing price on 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260729-13manual/opus-52026-07-292026-09-3040%cyberCISA publishes an advisory, alert or advisory update that explicitly names the Minnesota water utility intrusions, on or before 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260729-15manual/opus-52026-07-292026-09-3045%disasterUSGS records at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or greater within 100 km of the 2026-07-28 Uto epicentre between 2026-07-30 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260729-19manual/opus-52026-07-292026-09-3033%economics/marketsICE Brent front-month crude settles at or above 100.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-07-30 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260730-01manual/fable-52026-07-302026-09-3015%military/conflictThe Strait of Hormuz is closed to commercial shipping for 24 or more consecutive hours between 2026-07-31 and 2026-09-30, as reported by at least two of Reuters, the Associated Press and Lloyds List.
KKR-20260730-02manual/fable-52026-07-302026-09-308%military/conflictNATO invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty in response to the missile impact on Polish territory reported on 2026-07-30, with the invocation announced between 2026-07-31 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260730-03manual/fable-52026-07-302026-09-3045%economics/marketsThe Federal Reserve announces a reduction of the federal funds target range at its September 2026 FOMC meeting, with the decision published between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260730-09manual/fable-52026-07-302026-09-3035%politicalUgandan authorities release Kizza Besigye from detention, including any transfer to house arrest or medical release abroad, between 2026-07-31 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260730-11manual/opus-52026-07-302026-09-3085%military_conflictBetween 2026-08-06 and 2026-09-30, US Central Command or the Department of Defense publicly confirms at least one new military strike on targets inside Iranian territory.
KKR-20260730-13manual/opus-52026-07-302026-09-3030%military_conflictNATO holds a formal Article 4 consultation at the request of a member state between 2026-08-06 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260730-27manual/sonnet-52026-07-302026-09-3025%politicalThe U.S. Senate will vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General between 2026-07-30 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260731-02manual/fable-52026-07-312026-09-3022%economicThe September 2026 FOMC statement announces a federal funds target range higher than the July 2026 range, following three July dissents in favor of an increase
KKR-20260731-20manual/opus-52026-07-312026-09-3075%military_conflictThe US Navy or Department of Defense publicly confirms a direct armed engagement between US forces and Iranian forces or Iranian-operated vessels or aircraft in or near the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-08-07 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260731-23manual/opus-52026-07-312026-09-3040%economicFront-month WTI crude futures settle above 95.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-07 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260731-24manual/opus-52026-07-312026-09-3055%politicalFrontex or the European Commission publicly announces a deployment of personnel or emergency border funding to Spain in response to the Ceuta crossings between 2026-08-07 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260801-04manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-012026-09-3062%military/conflictAt least one additional commercial vessel is struck by weapons in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman between 2026-08-08 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260801-06manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-012026-09-3045%economics/marketsNYMEX WTI front-month crude settles above 95.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260801-07manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-012026-09-3072%politicalAn extraordinary European Council or Justice and Home Affairs Council session on the Ceuta migration crisis convenes between 2026-08-08 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260801-16manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-012026-09-3032%economics/marketsWTI crude oil front-month futures will settle above 95.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-08 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260801-21manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-012026-09-3055%military/conflictA commercial oil tanker will be attacked in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman, reported by Reuters, AP, or a maritime security firm, between 2026-08-08 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260801-23manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-012026-09-3055%military/conflictUS or Israeli forces strike Iranian oil or gas export infrastructure at Kharg Island, Bandar Abbas, or Asaluyeh between 2026-08-02 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260813-13manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-132026-09-3060%military/conflictThe OHCHR human rights monitoring mission monthly update covering August 2026 reports a Ukraine civilian-killed total lower than the July 2026 total it states.
KKR-20260813-20control/baserate2026-08-132026-09-3033%military/conflictThe OHCHR human rights monitoring mission monthly update covering August 2026 reports a Ukraine civilian-killed total lower than the July 2026 total it states.
KKR-20260822-36manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-222026-09-3045%economics_marketsBetween 2026-08-24 and 2026-09-30, COMEX front month gold futures will settle at or above 4800.00 USD per troy ounce on at least one trading day.
KKR-20260831-27manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-312026-09-3030%military/conflictA single Russian strike on Kyiv occurring between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-27 produces an official Ukrainian death toll of 10 or more for that one attack.
KKR-20260831-34control/baserate2026-08-312026-09-3053%military/conflictA single Russian strike on Kyiv occurring between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-27 produces an official Ukrainian death toll of 10 or more for that one attack.
KKR-20260813-23manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-132026-10-0185%military_conflictBetween 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-27, Ukrainian forces strike a Russian Black Sea port, oil terminal, or grain terminal, and both sides acknowledge the strike.
KKR-20260813-28control/baserate2026-08-132026-10-0133%military_conflictBetween 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-27, Ukrainian forces strike a Russian Black Sea port, oil terminal, or grain terminal, and both sides acknowledge the strike.
KKR-20260831-05lmstudio/auto2026-08-312026-10-0138%economics/marketsThe S&P 500 index closes below 7,500.00 on at least one trading day between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28.
KKR-20260906-93manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-062026-10-0180%crime_securityVictoria Police announce the arrest, charging, or confirmed death of the man sought over the alleged axe attack in Victoria, occurring between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-27.
KKR-20260906-119control/baserate2026-09-062026-10-0136%crime_securityVictoria Police announce the arrest, charging, or confirmed death of the man sought over the alleged axe attack in Victoria, occurring between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-27.
KKR-20260907-02lmstudio/auto2026-09-072026-10-0125%politicalBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a new political party in Germany gains more than 10% of the vote in a regional election, as confirmed by official election results from the German Federal Returning Officer.
KKR-20260908-16manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-082026-10-0147%cyberCVE-2026-75650, the Adobe Commerce and Magento Open Source remote code execution flaw Adobe confirmed as actively exploited on 2026-09-08, is added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-29.
KKR-20260908-19manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-082026-10-0158%disaster_infrastructureA named humanitarian body publicly reports the closure or suspension of services at one or more specific Sudanese hospitals due to healthcare system collapse, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-29.
KKR-20260908-21control/baserate2026-09-082026-10-0130%cyberCVE-2026-75650, the Adobe Commerce and Magento Open Source remote code execution flaw Adobe confirmed as actively exploited on 2026-09-08, is added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-29.
KKR-20260908-24control/baserate2026-09-082026-10-0136%disaster_infrastructureA named humanitarian body publicly reports the closure or suspension of services at one or more specific Sudanese hospitals due to healthcare system collapse, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-29.
KKR-20260804-19manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-042026-10-0245%economicFront-month Brent crude settles at or below 75.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260804-21manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-042026-10-0245%cyberCISA adds a CVE affecting N-able N-central to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260804-22manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-042026-10-0230%cyberThe UK Information Commissioners Office confirms a formal investigation or enforcement action over the PNLD breach between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260804-23manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-042026-10-0265%politicalThe US Senate confirms Todd Blanche as Attorney General between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260804-35control/baserate2026-08-042026-10-0225%economicFront-month Brent crude settles at or below 75.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260804-37control/baserate2026-08-042026-10-0225%cyberCISA adds a CVE affecting N-able N-central to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260804-38control/baserate2026-08-042026-10-0225%cyberThe UK Information Commissioners Office confirms a formal investigation or enforcement action over the PNLD breach between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260804-39control/baserate2026-08-042026-10-0225%politicalThe US Senate confirms Todd Blanche as Attorney General between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260804-58manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-042026-10-0228%economicThe S&P 500 closes down 3.00 percent or more from the prior close on at least one session between 2026-08-05 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260807-05manual/fable-52026-08-072026-10-0288%politicalThe US Senate confirms Todd Blanche as Attorney General by recorded roll call vote between 2026-08-07 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260808-14manual/opus-52026-08-082026-10-0282%politicalA continuing appropriations act extending US federal funding past 2026-09-30 is enacted into law between 2026-08-09 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260808-16manual/opus-52026-08-082026-10-0248%cyberCISA adds at least 25 distinct CVE records to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with date-added values between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260811-12manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-112026-10-0220%economics/marketsNYMEX WTI crude front-month futures settle at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260811-22manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-112026-10-0228%economicsNYMEX front-month WTI crude futures settle at or above 95.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260811-38control/baserate2026-08-112026-10-0218%economics/marketsNYMEX WTI crude front-month futures settle at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260811-48control/baserate2026-08-112026-10-0218%economicsNYMEX front-month WTI crude futures settle at or above 95.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260812-05manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-122026-10-0285%military/conflictAt least one attack on a commercial vessel occurs in the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, or Gulf of Aden between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260812-07manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-122026-10-0230%cyberA Microsoft Defender vulnerability is added to the CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260812-22control/baserate2026-08-122026-10-0233%military/conflictAt least one attack on a commercial vessel occurs in the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, or Gulf of Aden between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260812-24control/baserate2026-08-122026-10-0233%cyberA Microsoft Defender vulnerability is added to the CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value between 2026-08-13 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260813-08manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-132026-10-0265%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry whose affected product is Microsoft SharePoint, with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-14 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260813-11manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-132026-10-0275%disasterAt least one reactor unit at Romania's Cernavoda nuclear plant records nonzero electricity output on the ENTSO-E transparency platform on at least one day between 2026-08-14 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260813-15control/baserate2026-08-132026-10-0233%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry whose affected product is Microsoft SharePoint, with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-14 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260813-18control/baserate2026-08-132026-10-0233%disasterAt least one reactor unit at Romania's Cernavoda nuclear plant records nonzero electricity output on the ENTSO-E transparency platform on at least one day between 2026-08-14 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260817-05manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-172026-10-0275%crime/securityAuthorities announce the arrest or charging of at least one suspect in the 2026-08-15 Virginia State shooting in which five people were shot, between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260817-10control/baserate2026-08-172026-10-0231%crime/securityAuthorities announce the arrest or charging of at least one suspect in the 2026-08-15 Virginia State shooting in which five people were shot, between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260817-55manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-172026-10-0210%military/conflictBetween 2026-08-18 and 2026-09-30 the United States conducts a military strike on targets inside the territory of Oman.
KKR-20260817-61control/baserate2026-08-172026-10-0231%crime/securityAuthorities announce the arrest or charging of at least one suspect in the 2026-08-15 Virginia State shooting in which five people were shot, between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260817-63control/baserate2026-08-172026-10-0250%military/conflictBetween 2026-08-18 and 2026-09-30 the United States conducts a military strike on targets inside the territory of Oman.
KKR-20260818-10manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-182026-10-0230%military/conflictUnited States forces conduct military strikes on targets inside Iranian territory between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260818-26control/baserate2026-08-182026-10-0250%military/conflictUnited States forces conduct military strikes on targets inside Iranian territory between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260819-06manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-192026-10-0285%cyberCISA adds at least one new Microsoft-product vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a date-added value between 2026-08-20 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260819-27control/baserate2026-08-192026-10-0223%cyberCISA adds at least one new Microsoft-product vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a date-added value between 2026-08-20 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260822-01manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-222026-10-0230%economics/marketsThe 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield (FRED series DGS10, 4.65 on 2026-08-19 after a 20-month high near 4.75 that week) records a daily value of 5.00 percent or higher on at least one day between 2026-08-24 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260825-14manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-252026-10-0228%politicalA New York state court issues any order or ruling, including on a preliminary motion, in the business-group lawsuit against the city-owned grocery store initiative, between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260827-01manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-272026-10-0245%cyberCISA adds CVE-2026-63520, the Microsoft SharePoint Business Connectivity Services remote code execution flaw that completes the chain with CVE-2026-55040, to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260827-04manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-272026-10-0225%military/conflictUnited States and Iranian officials at the level of secretary of state, foreign minister, or presidential special envoy meet face to face for a negotiating session between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-30, and both governments acknowledge the meeting.
KKR-20260827-08manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-272026-10-0215%politicalThe Kremlin or the White House will confirm a direct, in-person meeting between the CIA Director and Vladimir Putin, following the CIA Director's Russia visit reported 2026-08-26 in which the Kremlin said meetings involved Russian intelligence officials but not Putin, between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260827-23control/baserate2026-08-272026-10-0223%cyberCISA adds CVE-2026-63520, the Microsoft SharePoint Business Connectivity Services remote code execution flaw that completes the chain with CVE-2026-55040, to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260827-26control/baserate2026-08-272026-10-0250%military/conflictUnited States and Iranian officials at the level of secretary of state, foreign minister, or presidential special envoy meet face to face for a negotiating session between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-30, and both governments acknowledge the meeting.
KKR-20260827-40control/baserate2026-08-272026-10-0229%politicalThe Kremlin or the White House will confirm a direct, in-person meeting between the CIA Director and Vladimir Putin, following the CIA Director's Russia visit reported 2026-08-26 in which the Kremlin said meetings involved Russian intelligence officials but not Putin, between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260827-56control/baserate2026-08-272026-10-0229%politicalA New York state court issues any order or ruling, including on a preliminary motion, in the business-group lawsuit against the city-owned grocery store initiative, between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260827-68manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-272026-10-0255%economics/marketsNvidia or Hugging Face officially confirms a definitive agreement for Nvidia to acquire Hugging Face between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260827-71manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-272026-10-0240%disasterOfficial confirmed deaths from the 2026-08-26 Bhotekoshi-Trishuli flash flood, Nepal and Tibet combined, reach at least 1,000 by 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260827-74manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-272026-10-0255%military/conflictUKMTO publishes at least three separate incident reports of merchant vessels struck by a projectile, mine, or other weapon in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, or Persian Gulf between 2026-08-28 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260827-91control/baserate2026-08-272026-10-0225%economics/marketsNvidia or Hugging Face officially confirms a definitive agreement for Nvidia to acquire Hugging Face between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260827-94control/baserate2026-08-272026-10-0252%disasterOfficial confirmed deaths from the 2026-08-26 Bhotekoshi-Trishuli flash flood, Nepal and Tibet combined, reach at least 1,000 by 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260827-97control/baserate2026-08-272026-10-0253%military/conflictUKMTO publishes at least three separate incident reports of merchant vessels struck by a projectile, mine, or other weapon in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, or Persian Gulf between 2026-08-28 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260829-03lmstudio/auto2026-08-292026-10-0215%disasterA major earthquake with magnitude 6.5 or higher will be recorded by USGS in the Pacific Northwest between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260829-04lmstudio/auto2026-08-292026-10-0245%economics/marketsThe S&P 500 will close above 7,800 on at least one weekday between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260829-06lmstudio/auto2026-08-292026-10-0250%economics/marketsThe 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will exceed 4.8% on at least one weekday between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260829-08lmstudio/auto2026-08-292026-10-0240%economics/marketsThe European Union will report gas storage levels below 30% of capacity on at least one weekday between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260829-10manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-292026-10-0293%military/conflictRussian forces conduct at least one drone or missile strike on Kyiv between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260829-14manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-292026-10-0230%disasterThe barrier lake at the Nepal-China border produces a further outburst or overflow causing new evacuations, damage, or deaths between 2026-08-29 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260829-23control/baserate2026-08-292026-10-0253%military/conflictRussian forces conduct at least one drone or missile strike on Kyiv between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260829-27control/baserate2026-08-292026-10-0252%disasterThe barrier lake at the Nepal-China border produces a further outburst or overflow causing new evacuations, damage, or deaths between 2026-08-29 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260829-39manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-292026-10-0265%cyberA PaperCut vulnerability is added to the CISA KEV catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-29 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260829-58control/baserate2026-08-292026-10-0233%cyberA PaperCut vulnerability is added to the CISA KEV catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-29 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260831-75manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-312026-10-0215%military_conflictA further attempt to seize power from Niger's sitting government by military or paramilitary action occurs between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260831-82control/baserate2026-08-312026-10-0253%military_conflictA further attempt to seize power from Niger's sitting government by military or paramilitary action occurs between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260901-21manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-012026-10-0228%economics/marketsWTI crude oil front-month futures settle at or above 95.00 USD per barrel on any trading day between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-30. Reference: 88.02 USD per barrel on the packet date, 2026-09-01.
KKR-20260902-06manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-022026-10-0230%cyberBetween 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-30, CISA adds at least one Microsoft Exchange Server vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog.
KKR-20260902-07manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-022026-10-0280%crime/securityBetween 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30, the [withheld] Fourth District Court orders Tyler Robinson bound over for trial on the aggravated murder charge in the killing of Charlie Kirk.
KKR-20260902-18control/baserate2026-09-022026-10-0225%economics/marketsWTI crude oil front-month futures settle at or above 95.00 USD per barrel on any trading day between 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-30. Reference: 88.02 USD per barrel on the packet date, 2026-09-01.
KKR-20260902-27control/baserate2026-09-022026-10-0233%cyberBetween 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-30, CISA adds at least one Microsoft Exchange Server vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog.
KKR-20260902-28control/baserate2026-09-022026-10-0243%crime/securityBetween 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30, the [withheld] Fourth District Court orders Tyler Robinson bound over for trial on the aggravated murder charge in the killing of Charlie Kirk.
KKR-20260902-44manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-022026-10-0285%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry whose vendor or product fields reference SonicWall SMA1000, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260902-57manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-022026-10-0235%economicWTI crude oil, NYMEX front-month contract, settles at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on any trading day between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-30. Reference: 90.59 USD per barrel on the packet date, 2026-09-02.
KKR-20260902-63control/baserate2026-09-022026-10-0230%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry whose vendor or product fields reference SonicWall SMA1000, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260902-76control/baserate2026-09-022026-10-0221%economicWTI crude oil, NYMEX front-month contract, settles at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on any trading day between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-30. Reference: 90.59 USD per barrel on the packet date, 2026-09-02.
KKR-20260903-31manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-032026-10-0220%cyberCISA adds at least one CVE whose KEV vendorProject or product field names Elementor to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260903-62control/baserate2026-09-032026-10-0230%cyberCISA adds at least one CVE whose KEV vendorProject or product field names Elementor to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260906-14manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-062026-10-0265%military/conflictUS forces conduct at least one additional military strike on Iranian military, IRGC, or Iranian state-owned assets between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-30, following the 2026-09-05 strikes on three Iranian oil tankers.
KKR-20260906-41control/baserate2026-09-062026-10-0249%military/conflictUS forces conduct at least one additional military strike on Iranian military, IRGC, or Iranian state-owned assets between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-30, following the 2026-09-05 strikes on three Iranian oil tankers.
KKR-20260907-24manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-072026-10-0240%military/conflictThe Israeli military conducts at least one airstrike inside Beirut municipality or its southern suburbs (Dahiyeh) between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260907-52control/baserate2026-09-072026-10-0249%military/conflictThe Israeli military conducts at least one airstrike inside Beirut municipality or its southern suburbs (Dahiyeh) between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260908-26manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-082026-10-0270%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds CVE-2026-75650, the Adobe Commerce and Magento Open Source StyleSmuggler flaw patched 2026-09-07, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-29.
KKR-20260908-29manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-082026-10-0282%politicalBetween 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-30, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announces that at least one Hungarian diplomat is expelled from Russia or declared persona non grata, following the Hungarian expulsion of 10 Russian diplomats reported 2026-09-08.
KKR-20260908-31control/baserate2026-09-082026-10-0230%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds CVE-2026-75650, the Adobe Commerce and Magento Open Source StyleSmuggler flaw patched 2026-09-07, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-29.
KKR-20260908-34control/baserate2026-09-082026-10-0235%politicalBetween 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-30, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announces that at least one Hungarian diplomat is expelled from Russia or declared persona non grata, following the Hungarian expulsion of 10 Russian diplomats reported 2026-09-08.
KKR-20260827-82manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-272026-10-0330%disasterThe confirmed death toll from the August 2026 Nepal-Tibet flash flood and glacial lake outburst event reaches at least 800, as reported by the government of Nepal, Chinese authorities, or UN OCHA, between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260827-105control/baserate2026-08-272026-10-0352%disasterThe confirmed death toll from the August 2026 Nepal-Tibet flash flood and glacial lake outburst event reaches at least 800, as reported by the government of Nepal, Chinese authorities, or UN OCHA, between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260726-14lmstudio/auto2026-07-262026-10-0435%disasterFrance experiences a new major wildfire in the Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur region between 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-04, forcing evacuations of at least 10,000 people.
KKR-20260727-31manual/opus-52026-07-272026-10-0555%politicalLabour leads Reform UK in at least two nationally published Great Britain voting-intention polls fielded entirely within September 2026.
KKR-20260802-03lmstudio/auto2026-08-022026-10-0540%disasterOn 2026-10-05, a wildfire in Spokane, Washington, will lead to the evacuation of at least 5,000 residents, confirmed by a state emergency management agency.
KKR-20260804-61manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-042026-10-0584%crime_securityThe man charged over the largest 2026 Washington state wildfire faces at least one arson count filed and not dismissed at any point between 2026-08-05 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260806-05manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-062026-10-0538%disasterThe USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one event of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 300 km of the epicenter of USGS event us6000ti6x, with an origin time between 2026-08-06 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260806-09manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-062026-10-0535%military/conflictThe United States and Iran both publicly confirm a concluded agreement governing commercial transit of the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-08-06 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260806-12manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-062026-10-0585%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog adds at least 12 new entries with date-added values between 2026-08-06 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260806-20control/baserate2026-08-062026-10-0531%disasterThe USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one event of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 300 km of the epicenter of USGS event us6000ti6x, with an origin time between 2026-08-06 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260806-24control/baserate2026-08-062026-10-0531%military/conflictThe United States and Iran both publicly confirm a concluded agreement governing commercial transit of the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-08-06 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260806-27control/baserate2026-08-062026-10-0531%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog adds at least 12 new entries with date-added values between 2026-08-06 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260807-08manual/opus-52026-08-072026-10-0585%politicalThe US Senate confirms Todd Blanche as Attorney General on a recorded roll call vote held between 2026-08-07 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260807-12manual/opus-52026-08-072026-10-0527%military_conflictHouthi forces launch a ground assault on Marib city or its immediate outskirts between 2026-08-08 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260809-12manual/opus-52026-08-092026-10-0548%disasterThe USGS catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater worldwide with origin time between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260810-15manual/opus-52026-08-102026-10-0575%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry with vendorProject Progress Software carrying a dateAdded value between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260810-19manual/opus-52026-08-102026-10-0538%military/conflictIranian forces seize or forcibly board at least one commercial merchant vessel in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260810-31control/baserate2026-08-102026-10-0531%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry with vendorProject Progress Software carrying a dateAdded value between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260810-35control/baserate2026-08-102026-10-0531%military/conflictIranian forces seize or forcibly board at least one commercial merchant vessel in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260811-21manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-112026-10-0540%military_conflictUnited States and Iranian officials hold a publicly acknowledged direct bilateral meeting between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260811-25manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-112026-10-0522%disasterThe USGS catalog lists at least one magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake within 300 km of USGS event us6000tjl2, with origin time between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260811-47control/baserate2026-08-112026-10-0533%military_conflictUnited States and Iranian officials hold a publicly acknowledged direct bilateral meeting between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260811-51control/baserate2026-08-112026-10-0533%disasterThe USGS catalog lists at least one magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake within 300 km of USGS event us6000tjl2, with origin time between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260813-25manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-132026-10-0574%politicalA named successor to Karoline Leavitt as White House press secretary is publicly announced between 2026-08-14 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260813-30control/baserate2026-08-132026-10-0533%politicalA named successor to Karoline Leavitt as White House press secretary is publicly announced between 2026-08-14 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260817-42manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-172026-10-0544%cyberPhilips or GE publicly confirms data theft from the Clop-attributed breach between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260817-50control/baserate2026-08-172026-10-0523%cyberPhilips or GE publicly confirms data theft from the Clop-attributed breach between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260817-71manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-172026-10-0555%disasterUSGS catalogs an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 250 km of the epicenter of event us6000tkt2 between 2026-08-18 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260817-74control/baserate2026-08-172026-10-0533%disasterUSGS catalogs an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 250 km of the epicenter of event us6000tkt2 between 2026-08-18 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260818-17manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-182026-10-0525%politicalBetween 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-30, either Russia or the United Kingdom expels at least one accredited diplomat of the other state.
KKR-20260818-20manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-182026-10-0558%disasterThe USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one magnitude 6.5 or greater event with an epicenter in Indonesia between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260818-33control/baserate2026-08-182026-10-0529%politicalBetween 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-30, either Russia or the United Kingdom expels at least one accredited diplomat of the other state.
KKR-20260818-36control/baserate2026-08-182026-10-0533%disasterThe USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one magnitude 6.5 or greater event with an epicenter in Indonesia between 2026-08-19 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260822-40manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-222026-10-0565%economicsCanadian counter-tariffs on US-origin goods take legal effect between 2026-08-24 and 2026-09-30 in response to the 50 percent US duties imposed 2026-08-22.
KKR-20260825-13manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-252026-10-057%military/conflictThe government of Iran submits or publicly announces formal withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260825-22manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-252026-10-0570%military_conflictAt least four distinct Russian oil refineries are struck in drone attacks between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30, each acknowledged by a Russian regional governor, ministry, or federal agency.
KKR-20260827-53control/baserate2026-08-272026-10-0550%military_conflictAt least four distinct Russian oil refineries are struck in drone attacks between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30, each acknowledged by a Russian regional governor, ministry, or federal agency.
KKR-20260827-55control/baserate2026-08-272026-10-0550%military/conflictThe government of Iran submits or publicly announces formal withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260827-84manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-272026-10-0530%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog will add at least 20 CVE entries carrying a dateAdded value between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260827-107control/baserate2026-08-272026-10-0533%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog will add at least 20 CVE entries carrying a dateAdded value between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260829-18manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-292026-10-0578%military_conflictUkrainian authorities report Russian drone or missile impacts inside Kyiv city on at least six separate calendar days between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260829-31control/baserate2026-08-292026-10-0553%military_conflictUkrainian authorities report Russian drone or missile impacts inside Kyiv city on at least six separate calendar days between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260829-36manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-292026-10-0580%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30, at least one Russian strike event in Kyiv city or Kyiv oblast kills 10 or more people according to Ukrainian state authorities.
KKR-20260829-55control/baserate2026-08-292026-10-0553%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30, at least one Russian strike event in Kyiv city or Kyiv oblast kills 10 or more people according to Ukrainian state authorities.
KKR-20260831-46manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-312026-10-0580%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30, at least one Russian missile or drone strike inside Ukraine kills 10 or more people in a single attack, per official Ukrainian figures.
KKR-20260831-52control/baserate2026-08-312026-10-0553%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30, at least one Russian missile or drone strike inside Ukraine kills 10 or more people in a single attack, per official Ukrainian figures.
KKR-20260831-53manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-312026-10-0580%military_conflictUS Central Command announces at least one new strike on Iranian forces, vessels, or territory occurring between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260831-61control/baserate2026-08-312026-10-0553%military_conflictUS Central Command announces at least one new strike on Iranian forces, vessels, or territory occurring between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260831-83manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-312026-10-0590%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog carries at least 8 entries with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260831-88control/baserate2026-08-312026-10-0533%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog carries at least 8 entries with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260901-02manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-012026-10-0522%politicalA lapse in federal appropriations begins 2026-10-01 because no measure funding agencies past 2026-09-30 is enacted.
KKR-20260901-07manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-012026-10-0530%politicalA lapse in United States federal appropriations begins on 2026-10-01, with agency shutdown procedures taking effect that day.
KKR-20260902-03manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-022026-10-0525%politicalA lapse in US federal appropriations (government shutdown) begins on 2026-10-01 because no full-year or continuing appropriations covering that date is enacted beforehand.
KKR-20260902-24control/baserate2026-09-022026-10-0544%politicalA lapse in US federal appropriations (government shutdown) begins on 2026-10-01 because no full-year or continuing appropriations covering that date is enacted beforehand.
KKR-20260902-36lmstudio/auto2026-09-022026-10-0530%cyberBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, the CISA KEV catalog will include at least one entry for a zero-day vulnerability in SonicWall SMA1000 devices that was actively exploited in the wild.
KKR-20260902-47manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-022026-10-0530%politicalA lapse in US federal appropriations begins on 2026-10-01 because no full-year appropriations act or continuing resolution covering all agencies is enacted on or before 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260902-55manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-022026-10-0585%military_conflictRussian official sources confirm UAV interception or debris over Moscow city or Moscow oblast on at least three separate calendar days between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260902-66control/baserate2026-09-022026-10-0535%politicalA lapse in US federal appropriations begins on 2026-10-01 because no full-year appropriations act or continuing resolution covering all agencies is enacted on or before 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260902-74control/baserate2026-09-022026-10-0549%military_conflictRussian official sources confirm UAV interception or debris over Moscow city or Moscow oblast on at least three separate calendar days between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260903-19lmstudio/auto2026-09-032026-10-0540%economics/marketsBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, the Brent crude oil price will exceed $100 per barrel on at least one trading day.
KKR-20260903-24manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-032026-10-0522%military_conflictA named Ukrainian government body announces disciplinary action, criminal charges, or a completed inquiry finding against personnel involved in the September 2, 2026 SBU-HUR shootout in Kyiv, with the announcement occurring between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-03.
KKR-20260903-55control/baserate2026-09-032026-10-0549%military_conflictA named Ukrainian government body announces disciplinary action, criminal charges, or a completed inquiry finding against personnel involved in the September 2, 2026 SBU-HUR shootout in Kyiv, with the announcement occurring between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-03.
KKR-20260904-01lmstudio/auto2026-09-042026-10-0525%military/conflictA drone strike on Kyiv's security services headquarters occurs between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, resulting in at least one confirmed casualty.
KKR-20260904-02lmstudio/auto2026-09-042026-10-0530%cyberA cyberattack exploiting the Chrome V8 zero-day vulnerability is confirmed by at least two independent sources between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
KKR-20260904-03lmstudio/auto2026-09-042026-10-0520%disasterA major earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or higher occurs in the United States between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, with at least one fatality reported.
KKR-20260904-04lmstudio/auto2026-09-042026-10-0535%economics/marketsThe S&P 500 index closes below 7,600 on at least one trading day between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
KKR-20260904-05lmstudio/auto2026-09-042026-10-0522%cyberA new vulnerability in Microsoft Teams is exploited in a coordinated attack on at least 100 organizations between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
KKR-20260904-06lmstudio/auto2026-09-042026-10-0518%politicalA political scandal involving a U.S. presidential candidate leads to a formal indictment by a federal grand jury between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
KKR-20260904-07lmstudio/auto2026-09-042026-10-0515%military/conflictIran announces a new military offensive in the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, confirmed by at least two hostile sides (AXIS, WEST).
KKR-20260904-08lmstudio/auto2026-09-042026-10-0532%economics/marketsThe 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds 5.0% on at least one trading day between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
KKR-20260905-01lmstudio/auto2026-09-052026-10-0565%economics/marketsBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28, the S&P 500 index will close above 7,750.00 on at least one trading day.
KKR-20260905-02lmstudio/auto2026-09-052026-10-0540%cyberBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28, at least one new vulnerability in the PostgreSQL database system will be publicly disclosed and listed in the CISA KEV catalog.
KKR-20260905-03lmstudio/auto2026-09-052026-10-0555%economics/marketsBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28, the US dollar will trade above 1.17 against the euro on at least one trading day.
KKR-20260905-04lmstudio/auto2026-09-052026-10-0525%disasterBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28, a new earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater will be recorded by the USGS in the Pacific Ring of Fire region.
KKR-20260905-05lmstudio/auto2026-09-052026-10-0535%disasterBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28, at least one new forest fire in Africa will be reported by GDACS Alerts with a green or yellow alert level.
KKR-20260905-06lmstudio/auto2026-09-052026-10-0520%cyberBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28, a major cyberattack exploiting the Citrix NetScaler auth bypass vulnerability will be confirmed by two or more independent sources.
KKR-20260905-07lmstudio/auto2026-09-052026-10-0515%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28, the US will launch a new military operation in the Middle East targeting Iranian proxies, confirmed by at least two independent outlets.
KKR-20260905-08lmstudio/auto2026-09-052026-10-0545%politicalBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28, a new political scandal involving a US government official will be reported by two or more major news outlets with differing political leanings.
KKR-20260906-76manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-062026-10-0555%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-30 inclusive, UKMTO publishes at least one advisory reporting an attack on, boarding of, or seizure of a merchant vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, or Persian Gulf.
KKR-20260906-87manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-062026-10-0530%politicalThe official final result certified by the Landeswahlleiter of Saxony-Anhalt for the 2026-09-06 state election, certified between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-30, allocates AfD at least 42 of the 83 Landtag seats.
KKR-20260906-102control/baserate2026-09-062026-10-0549%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-30 inclusive, UKMTO publishes at least one advisory reporting an attack on, boarding of, or seizure of a merchant vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, or Persian Gulf.
KKR-20260906-113control/baserate2026-09-062026-10-0535%politicalThe official final result certified by the Landeswahlleiter of Saxony-Anhalt for the 2026-09-06 state election, certified between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-30, allocates AfD at least 42 of the 83 Landtag seats.
KKR-20260907-20manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-072026-10-0528%economics/marketsNYMEX WTI front-month crude settles at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on 2026-10-02. Reference: 91.48 on the packet date 2026-09-07.
KKR-20260907-48control/baserate2026-09-072026-10-0521%economics/marketsNYMEX WTI front-month crude settles at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on 2026-10-02. Reference: 91.48 on the packet date 2026-09-07.
KKR-20260908-56manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-082026-10-0555%military_conflictSaudi Arabia conducts acknowledged military strikes on Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen between 2026-09-09 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260908-63control/baserate2026-09-082026-10-0549%military_conflictSaudi Arabia conducts acknowledged military strikes on Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen between 2026-09-09 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260808-11manual/fable-52026-08-082026-10-0625%politicalThe incumbent governor of Rhode Island is defeated in a gubernatorial primary held between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260822-28manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-222026-10-0625%military/conflictBetween 2026-08-23 and 2026-10-02 the governments of the United States and Iran both publicly confirm an agreement (ceasefire or settlement) whose announced terms include reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping.
KKR-20260827-69manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-272026-10-0685%cyberAt least one civil complaint naming Carhartt Inc as defendant over the 2026 customer data breach is filed in a US federal district court between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-02.
KKR-20260827-77manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-272026-10-068%military_conflictRussian military forces conduct a strike, using missile, drone, or other kinetic means, that lands on the sovereign territory of a NATO member state, including the UK, between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-03.
KKR-20260827-92control/baserate2026-08-272026-10-0633%cyberAt least one civil complaint naming Carhartt Inc as defendant over the 2026 customer data breach is filed in a US federal district court between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-02.
KKR-20260827-100control/baserate2026-08-272026-10-0653%military_conflictRussian military forces conduct a strike, using missile, drone, or other kinetic means, that lands on the sovereign territory of a NATO member state, including the UK, between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-03.
KKR-20260901-12lmstudio/auto2026-09-012026-10-0640%disasterBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a tropical storm makes landfall in Texas with a storm surge warning issued by the National Weather Service.
KKR-20260903-02manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-032026-10-0640%economics/marketsThe EIA daily WTI Cushing spot price (FRED series DCOILWTICO) is at or above 100.00 dollars per barrel on at least one observation date between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-02. Reference: WTI 90.59 on the packet date 2026-09-02.
KKR-20260903-05manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-032026-10-0630%politicalA lapse in US federal appropriations begins on 2026-10-01: no law providing FY2027 appropriations, full-year or continuing, for every federal department is enacted by the end of 2026-09-30, and OMB or at least one department issues lapse or shutdown guidance effective 2026-10-01.
KKR-20260903-09control/baserate2026-09-032026-10-0621%economics/marketsThe EIA daily WTI Cushing spot price (FRED series DCOILWTICO) is at or above 100.00 dollars per barrel on at least one observation date between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-02. Reference: WTI 90.59 on the packet date 2026-09-02.
KKR-20260903-12control/baserate2026-09-032026-10-0635%politicalA lapse in US federal appropriations begins on 2026-10-01: no law providing FY2027 appropriations, full-year or continuing, for every federal department is enacted by the end of 2026-09-30, and OMB or at least one department issues lapse or shutdown guidance effective 2026-10-01.
KKR-20260903-16lmstudio/auto2026-09-032026-10-0635%economics/marketsBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, the Netherlands will publicly confirm the transfer of at least $5 billion in gold from the United States to Canada or the United Kingdom.
KKR-20260903-33manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-032026-10-0640%military/conflictThe US Department of Defense announces the death of at least one US service member from hostile action in the CENTCOM area of responsibility, with a date of death between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-01.
KKR-20260903-37manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-032026-10-0692%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-02, Ukrainian forces strike at least one target inside internationally recognized Russian territory 200 km or more from the Russia-Ukraine border, acknowledged by both a Russian official source and a Ukrainian official or military-intelligence source.
KKR-20260903-42manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-032026-10-0640%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry whose vendor, product, or vulnerability name field contains Elementor, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-02 inclusive.
KKR-20260903-64control/baserate2026-09-032026-10-0649%military/conflictThe US Department of Defense announces the death of at least one US service member from hostile action in the CENTCOM area of responsibility, with a date of death between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-01.
KKR-20260903-68control/baserate2026-09-032026-10-0649%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-02, Ukrainian forces strike at least one target inside internationally recognized Russian territory 200 km or more from the Russia-Ukraine border, acknowledged by both a Russian official source and a Ukrainian official or military-intelligence source.
KKR-20260903-73control/baserate2026-09-032026-10-0630%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry whose vendor, product, or vulnerability name field contains Elementor, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-02 inclusive.
KKR-20260904-28manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-042026-10-0615%military/conflictHouthi forces take control of the Yemeni port city of Mokha (al-Mukha), Taiz governorate, between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-02.
KKR-20260904-35manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-042026-10-0660%disasterThe USGS ComCat catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or greater within 150 km of the 2026-09-04 M6.3 epicenter near Nikolski, Alaska, with origin time between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-02.
KKR-20260904-58control/baserate2026-09-042026-10-0649%military/conflictHouthi forces take control of the Yemeni port city of Mokha (al-Mukha), Taiz governorate, between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-02.
KKR-20260904-65control/baserate2026-09-042026-10-0636%disasterThe USGS ComCat catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or greater within 150 km of the 2026-09-04 M6.3 epicenter near Nikolski, Alaska, with origin time between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-02.
KKR-20260906-16manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-062026-10-0675%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry for the Citrix NetScaler ADC or NetScaler Gateway authentication bypass with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-02.
KKR-20260906-43control/baserate2026-09-062026-10-0630%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry for the Citrix NetScaler ADC or NetScaler Gateway authentication bypass with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-02.
KKR-20260906-55lmstudio/auto2026-09-062026-10-0625%cyberBetween 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-29, a cyberattack exploiting an unpatched vulnerability in a critical infrastructure system is confirmed by CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value in that window.
KKR-20260906-79manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-062026-10-0645%cyberBetween 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-02 inclusive, CISA adds to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog at least one CVE whose product is Adobe Commerce or Magento Open Source, with a dateAdded value in that range.
KKR-20260906-105control/baserate2026-09-062026-10-0630%cyberBetween 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-02 inclusive, CISA adds to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog at least one CVE whose product is Adobe Commerce or Magento Open Source, with a dateAdded value in that range.
KKR-20260907-26manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-072026-10-0615%politicalThe Iraqi government or the US Department of Defense announces, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-02, that US military forces will remain stationed at bases in Iraq, including the Kurdistan Region, beyond 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260907-54control/baserate2026-09-072026-10-0635%politicalThe Iraqi government or the US Department of Defense announces, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-02, that US military forces will remain stationed at bases in Iraq, including the Kurdistan Region, beyond 2026-09-30.
KKR-20260829-46manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-292026-10-0778%military/conflictA single Russian missile or drone strike will kill 10 or more people in Kyiv, Ukraine, between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-05.
KKR-20260829-65control/baserate2026-08-292026-10-0753%military/conflictA single Russian missile or drone strike will kill 10 or more people in Kyiv, Ukraine, between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-05.
KKR-20260901-11lmstudio/auto2026-09-012026-10-0730%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, at least one report from a hostile side confirms a drone strike on Kyiv with casualties claimed by Ukrainian sources.
KKR-20260901-13lmstudio/auto2026-09-012026-10-0720%cyberBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-81578 results in unauthorized access to a critical infrastructure system.
KKR-20260901-15lmstudio/auto2026-09-012026-10-0730%disasterBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a major wildfire in France causes damage to a wine-producing region as confirmed by Al Jazeera.
KKR-20260902-37lmstudio/auto2026-09-022026-10-0725%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-28, at least one drone strike will be confirmed by two or more independently biased sources in the Kyiv region of Ukraine.
KKR-20260903-17lmstudio/auto2026-09-032026-10-0720%disasterBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake will be recorded by the USGS in the South Sandwich Islands region.
KKR-20260903-21lmstudio/auto2026-09-032026-10-0718%disasterBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a magnitude 5.5 or higher earthquake will be recorded by the USGS in China.
KKR-20260903-34manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-032026-10-0715%disasterThe USGS catalog records an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater with epicenter within 300 km of the 2026-09-03 M6.3 event 84 km SSW of Nikolski, Alaska (us7000tdvt), with origin time between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-03.
KKR-20260903-38manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-032026-10-0765%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-04, the government or state news agency of Qatar (QNA) or Bahrain (BNA) confirms an Iranian missile or drone striking, or being intercepted over, its national territory.
KKR-20260903-65control/baserate2026-09-032026-10-0736%disasterThe USGS catalog records an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater with epicenter within 300 km of the 2026-09-03 M6.3 event 84 km SSW of Nikolski, Alaska (us7000tdvt), with origin time between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-03.
KKR-20260903-69control/baserate2026-09-032026-10-0749%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-04, the government or state news agency of Qatar (QNA) or Bahrain (BNA) confirms an Iranian missile or drone striking, or being intercepted over, its national territory.
KKR-20260904-21manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-042026-10-0720%military/conflictHouthi forces will be reported to have gained physical control of coastal territory directly on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, beyond their existing inland and Hodeida-area positions, with the advance occurring between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-05.
KKR-20260904-51control/baserate2026-09-042026-10-0749%military/conflictHouthi forces will be reported to have gained physical control of coastal territory directly on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, beyond their existing inland and Hodeida-area positions, with the advance occurring between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-05.
KKR-20260906-08manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-062026-10-078%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-03, the governments of Russia and Ukraine both publicly confirm a general ceasefire or cessation-of-hostilities agreement covering the entire front line.
KKR-20260906-21manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-062026-10-0720%disasterUSGS ComCat lists at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater with epicenter between 50N and 55N latitude and 175W and 164W longitude, with origin time between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-05 UTC.
KKR-20260906-35control/baserate2026-09-062026-10-0749%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-03, the governments of Russia and Ukraine both publicly confirm a general ceasefire or cessation-of-hostilities agreement covering the entire front line.
KKR-20260906-48control/baserate2026-09-062026-10-0736%disasterUSGS ComCat lists at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater with epicenter between 50N and 55N latitude and 175W and 164W longitude, with origin time between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-05 UTC.
KKR-20260906-56lmstudio/auto2026-09-062026-10-0735%disasterBetween 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-30, a volcanic eruption in Indonesia causes flight cancellations at Jakarta International Airport, confirmed by at least two independent sources (one from BBC, one from Guardian).
KKR-20260906-81manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-062026-10-078%disasterBetween 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-04 inclusive, the USGS earthquake catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or greater with epicenter within 300 km of the 2026 M6.3 event 84 km SSW of Nikolski, Alaska (USGS event id us7000tdvt).
KKR-20260906-107control/baserate2026-09-062026-10-0736%disasterBetween 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-04 inclusive, the USGS earthquake catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or greater with epicenter within 300 km of the 2026 M6.3 event 84 km SSW of Nikolski, Alaska (USGS event id us7000tdvt).
KKR-20260908-01lmstudio/auto2026-09-082026-10-0725%economics/marketsBetween 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-25, Brent crude oil exceeds $100 per barrel at the close of a trading day on a major exchange (e.g., ICE Futures Europe).
KKR-20260817-15manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-172026-10-0840%crime_securityA second person is charged over the 2026-08-15 Virginia State University shooting, with the charges filed between 2026-08-17 and 2026-10-05.
KKR-20260817-20control/baserate2026-08-172026-10-0831%crime_securityA second person is charged over the 2026-08-15 Virginia State University shooting, with the charges filed between 2026-08-17 and 2026-10-05.
KKR-20260901-14lmstudio/auto2026-09-012026-10-0835%economics/marketsBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds 4.85 percent on a weekday.
KKR-20260901-16lmstudio/auto2026-09-012026-10-0825%cyberBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a cyberattack attributed to Russia-aligned actors targets a U.S. government agency using a previously unreported exploit.
KKR-20260901-17lmstudio/auto2026-09-012026-10-0810%politicalBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a new political summit involving Russia, Iran, and the U.S. is confirmed by at least two hostile sides.
KKR-20260902-38lmstudio/auto2026-09-022026-10-0845%economics/marketsBetween 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-29, the S&P 500 index will close above 7,700 points on at least one trading day.
KKR-20260903-15lmstudio/auto2026-09-032026-10-0825%cyberBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, at least one confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-83548 will be reported by two or more independent sources.
KKR-20260903-20lmstudio/auto2026-09-032026-10-0828%cyberBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-48710 will be reported by two or more independent sources.
KKR-20260903-22lmstudio/auto2026-09-032026-10-0822%cyberBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-9586 will be reported by two or more independent sources.
KKR-20260903-45manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-032026-10-0858%military_conflictBetween 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-04, at least one additional munition impact on the sovereign territory of Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or the United Arab Emirates is publicly attributed to Iran or Iran-aligned forces by the host government.
KKR-20260903-76control/baserate2026-09-032026-10-0849%military_conflictBetween 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-04, at least one additional munition impact on the sovereign territory of Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or the United Arab Emirates is publicly attributed to Iran or Iran-aligned forces by the host government.
KKR-20260906-15manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-062026-10-0825%military/conflictIranian military or IRGC forces attack, board, or seize a commercial merchant vessel in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, or Gulf of Oman between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-05.
KKR-20260906-42control/baserate2026-09-062026-10-0849%military/conflictIranian military or IRGC forces attack, board, or seize a commercial merchant vessel in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, or Gulf of Oman between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-05.
KKR-20260908-02lmstudio/auto2026-09-082026-10-0815%cyberBetween 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-30, the CISA KEV catalog adds at least one new vulnerability with a CVSS score of 9.0 or higher that is actively exploited in the wild.
KKR-20260817-60manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-172026-10-0975%politicalNo candidate wins a majority of valid votes in the first round of the Brazilian presidential election held on 2026-10-04, sending the contest to a second round per official TSE results.
KKR-20260817-68control/baserate2026-08-172026-10-0929%politicalNo candidate wins a majority of valid votes in the first round of the Brazilian presidential election held on 2026-10-04, sending the contest to a second round per official TSE results.
KKR-20260903-18lmstudio/auto2026-09-032026-10-0915%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, Iran will launch a missile strike against a target in Kuwait City, confirmed by at least two independent sources.
KKR-20260903-30manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-032026-10-0925%economics/marketsBrent crude trades above 110.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-02. Reference: 96.70 on the packet date.
KKR-20260903-61control/baserate2026-09-032026-10-0921%economics/marketsBrent crude trades above 110.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-02. Reference: 96.70 on the packet date.
KKR-20260906-57lmstudio/auto2026-09-062026-10-0940%politicalBetween 2026-09-25 and 2026-10-02, a new political development in the U.S. involves a public statement by Jared Kushner or Steve Witkoff on Ukraine peace talks, confirmed by at least two independent sources (one from Guardian, one from BBC).
KKR-20260906-85manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-062026-10-0980%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-07 at least one commercial vessel in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, or Gulf of Oman is attacked, struck, or seized in an incident attributed to US or Iranian forces.
KKR-20260906-111control/baserate2026-09-062026-10-0949%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-07 at least one commercial vessel in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, or Gulf of Oman is attacked, struck, or seized in an incident attributed to US or Iranian forces.
KKR-20260908-03lmstudio/auto2026-09-082026-10-0910%disasterBetween 2026-09-24 and 2026-10-01, a major earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or higher occurs in the Pacific Northwest region (Washington, Oregon, or Northern California).
KKR-20260827-07manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-272026-10-1038%economics/marketsThe United States will announce a new or expanded tariff action targeting Canadian goods, explicitly framed as a response to Canada's 2026-08-25 announcement of retaliatory tariffs on about 20 billion dollars of US goods, between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-08.
KKR-20260827-39control/baserate2026-08-272026-10-1025%economics/marketsThe United States will announce a new or expanded tariff action targeting Canadian goods, explicitly framed as a response to Canada's 2026-08-25 announcement of retaliatory tariffs on about 20 billion dollars of US goods, between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-08.
KKR-20260831-07lmstudio/auto2026-08-312026-10-1025%disasterA major flash flood in Nepal results in at least 50 confirmed deaths between 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-08.
KKR-20260902-39lmstudio/auto2026-09-022026-10-1015%disasterBetween 2026-09-25 and 2026-10-01, a new earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater will be recorded by the USGS in the Pacific Ring of Fire region.
KKR-20260906-58lmstudio/auto2026-09-062026-10-1030%disasterBetween 2026-09-26 and 2026-10-03, a new earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or higher is recorded in the Solomon Islands, confirmed by USGS Significant Quakes.
KKR-20260908-04lmstudio/auto2026-09-082026-10-1020%politicalBetween 2026-09-25 and 2026-10-02, a new political scandal involving a U.S. federal official is confirmed by at least two independent news outlets (e.g., Guardian, BBC, Al Jazeera) and results in a formal investigation by a congressional committee.
KKR-20260906-59lmstudio/auto2026-09-062026-10-1128%cyberBetween 2026-09-27 and 2026-10-04, a new phishing campaign using invisible Unicode characters is reported by BleepingComputer and confirmed by The Hacker News.
KKR-20260809-05manual/fable-52026-08-092026-10-1292%disasterThe USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake worldwide with origin time between 2026-08-10 and 2026-10-08.
KKR-20260902-40lmstudio/auto2026-09-022026-10-1230%cyberBetween 2026-09-27 and 2026-10-03, a new ransomware attack will be confirmed by two or more independent sources targeting a U.S. healthcare provider, resulting in data exposure of over 100,000 patients.
KKR-20260906-60lmstudio/auto2026-09-062026-10-1232%politicalBetween 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-05, a new political scandal involving a U.S. government official is reported by Politico and confirmed by Guardian World.
KKR-20260908-05lmstudio/auto2026-09-082026-10-125%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-27 and 2026-10-04, a new ceasefire agreement is signed between Israel and Hamas, verified by at least two neutral international bodies (e.g., UN, Qatar, Egypt).
KKR-20260908-17manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-082026-10-1216%cyberThe SAP kernel vulnerability SAP disclosed on 2026-09-08 under the codename OVERPASS, rated maximum severity, is added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-08.
KKR-20260908-18manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-082026-10-1237%crime_securityFrench police publicly announce at least one arrest of a suspect linked to the 2026-09-08 theft of paintings from the Musee Renoir in Cagnes-sur-Mer, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-08.
KKR-20260908-20manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-082026-10-1263%politicalOFAC adds at least one additional Iran-program entity or individual to the SDN list, beyond the airlines sanctioned per 2026-09-08 reporting, between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-08.
KKR-20260908-22control/baserate2026-09-082026-10-1230%cyberThe SAP kernel vulnerability SAP disclosed on 2026-09-08 under the codename OVERPASS, rated maximum severity, is added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-08.
KKR-20260908-23control/baserate2026-09-082026-10-1236%crime_securityFrench police publicly announce at least one arrest of a suspect linked to the 2026-09-08 theft of paintings from the Musee Renoir in Cagnes-sur-Mer, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-08.
KKR-20260908-25control/baserate2026-09-082026-10-1235%politicalOFAC adds at least one additional Iran-program entity or individual to the SDN list, beyond the airlines sanctioned per 2026-09-08 reporting, between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-08.
KKR-20260808-10manual/fable-52026-08-082026-10-1355%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry naming Metabase as vendor or product with a date-added value between 2026-08-09 and 2026-10-09.
KKR-20260808-12manual/fable-52026-08-082026-10-1325%politicalBetween 2026-08-09 and 2026-10-09 the United States and Iran announce an agreement or arrangement governing commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
KKR-20260809-10manual/opus-52026-08-092026-10-1312%politicalThe Israeli government publicly accepts the Board of Peace 15-point Gaza document between 2026-08-11 and 2026-10-09.
KKR-20260822-29manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-222026-10-1330%economics/marketsBetween 2026-08-23 and 2026-10-02 the United States and Canada both announce an agreement that rescinds or suspends the 50 percent US tariffs on Canadian goods that took effect 2026-08-22, and US implementation is published by 2026-10-09.
KKR-20260822-33manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-222026-10-1360%crime/securityBetween 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-09 the Clark County, Nevada jury in the Tupac Shakur murder trial returns a verdict of guilty of murder (first or second degree) against Duane Davis.
KKR-20260827-76manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-272026-10-1320%military_conflictThe United States and Iran, directly or through the mediating states of Qatar, Oman, or Pakistan named in current shuttle diplomacy, announce a ceasefire, truce, or negotiated framework ending active hostilities in the ongoing Iran war, with that announcement first reported between 2026-09-10 and 2026-10-10.
KKR-20260827-99control/baserate2026-08-272026-10-1353%military_conflictThe United States and Iran, directly or through the mediating states of Qatar, Oman, or Pakistan named in current shuttle diplomacy, announce a ceasefire, truce, or negotiated framework ending active hostilities in the ongoing Iran war, with that announcement first reported between 2026-09-10 and 2026-10-10.
KKR-20260831-55manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-312026-10-1330%economicFront-month ICE Brent futures settle at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09.
KKR-20260831-63control/baserate2026-08-312026-10-1325%economicFront-month ICE Brent futures settle at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09.
KKR-20260902-09manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-022026-10-1335%economics_marketsThe front-month ICE Brent crude futures contract settles at or above 100.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09. Reference: Brent 92.47 at seal on 2026-09-01.
KKR-20260902-13manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-022026-10-1350%military_conflictA commercial vessel is struck by weapons fire in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Oman between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-08.
KKR-20260902-30control/baserate2026-09-022026-10-1325%economics_marketsThe front-month ICE Brent crude futures contract settles at or above 100.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09. Reference: Brent 92.47 at seal on 2026-09-01.
KKR-20260902-34control/baserate2026-09-022026-10-1353%military_conflictA commercial vessel is struck by weapons fire in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Oman between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-08.
KKR-20260902-41lmstudio/auto2026-09-022026-10-1328%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-04, a new conflict escalation event involving Iran and Israel will be confirmed by two or more hostile sides in the Strait of Hormuz region.
KKR-20260904-26manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-042026-10-1340%economics/marketsCME NYMEX WTI crude (CL) front-month futures settle at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09 (reference: 90.35 on the packet date).
KKR-20260904-39manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-042026-10-1372%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog gains an entry for a Google Chromium V8 vulnerability with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-09.
KKR-20260904-56control/baserate2026-09-042026-10-1321%economics/marketsCME NYMEX WTI crude (CL) front-month futures settle at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09 (reference: 90.35 on the packet date).
KKR-20260904-69control/baserate2026-09-042026-10-1330%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog gains an entry for a Google Chromium V8 vulnerability with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-09.
KKR-20260906-61lmstudio/auto2026-09-062026-10-1335%disasterBetween 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-06, a new wildfire in Brazil is reported by GDACS Alerts with eventtype=WF and confirmed by at least two independent sources (one from BBC, one from Guardian).
KKR-20260907-15manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-072026-10-1322%economics/marketsReference: the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.78 percent per the market snapshot in the packet dated 2026-09-07. The FRED DGS10 series will show a daily 10-year Treasury yield at or above 4.95 percent on at least one day between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-09.
KKR-20260907-27manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-072026-10-1365%economics/marketsICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09. Reference: Brent 96.28 on the packet date.
KKR-20260907-28manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-072026-10-1360%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one ConnectWise ScreenConnect entry with a date-added value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09.
KKR-20260907-43control/baserate2026-09-072026-10-1321%economics/marketsReference: the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.78 percent per the market snapshot in the packet dated 2026-09-07. The FRED DGS10 series will show a daily 10-year Treasury yield at or above 4.95 percent on at least one day between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-09.
KKR-20260907-55control/baserate2026-09-072026-10-1321%economics/marketsICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09. Reference: Brent 96.28 on the packet date.
KKR-20260907-56control/baserate2026-09-072026-10-1330%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one ConnectWise ScreenConnect entry with a date-added value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09.
KKR-20260908-06lmstudio/auto2026-09-082026-10-1312%disasterBetween 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-05, a major wildfire in Australia burns over 100,000 hectares and is confirmed by the GDACS Alerts feed.
KKR-20260908-36manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-082026-10-1360%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry whose vendor or product field identifies Adobe Commerce or Magento, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09.
KKR-20260908-38manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-082026-10-1380%economics/marketsICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09. Reference: Brent 97.68 at packet seal on 2026-09-08.
KKR-20260908-39manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-082026-10-1345%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09, Saudi authorities publicly acknowledge at least one Houthi missile or drone attack impacting or intercepted over Riyadh province.
KKR-20260908-43manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-082026-10-1365%disasterThe USGS earthquake catalog records at least one magnitude 5.0 or greater event within 150 km of USGS event us7000tdvt (the 2026-09-08 M6.3 near Nikolski, Alaska) with origin time between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09.
KKR-20260908-44control/baserate2026-09-082026-10-1330%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry whose vendor or product field identifies Adobe Commerce or Magento, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-09.
KKR-20260908-46control/baserate2026-09-082026-10-1321%economics/marketsICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09. Reference: Brent 97.68 at packet seal on 2026-09-08.
KKR-20260908-47control/baserate2026-09-082026-10-1349%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09, Saudi authorities publicly acknowledge at least one Houthi missile or drone attack impacting or intercepted over Riyadh province.
KKR-20260908-51control/baserate2026-09-082026-10-1336%disasterThe USGS earthquake catalog records at least one magnitude 5.0 or greater event within 150 km of USGS event us7000tdvt (the 2026-09-08 M6.3 near Nikolski, Alaska) with origin time between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09.
KKR-20260908-52manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-082026-10-1380%economicICE Brent front-month crude settles above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09. Reference: 97.68 on the packet date, 2026-09-08.
KKR-20260908-54manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-082026-10-1372%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog carries at least one Adobe Commerce or Magento CVE with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09.
KKR-20260908-58manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-082026-10-1345%politicalRussia expels or declares persona non grata at least one Hungarian diplomat between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09.
KKR-20260908-59control/baserate2026-09-082026-10-1321%economicICE Brent front-month crude settles above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09. Reference: 97.68 on the packet date, 2026-09-08.
KKR-20260908-61control/baserate2026-09-082026-10-1330%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog carries at least one Adobe Commerce or Magento CVE with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09.
KKR-20260908-65control/baserate2026-09-082026-10-1335%politicalRussia expels or declares persona non grata at least one Hungarian diplomat between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09.
KKR-20260808-08manual/fable-52026-08-082026-10-1485%crime/securityBetween 2026-08-09 and 2026-10-09 the US Department of Justice announces the extradition of at least one defendant from Colombia to the United States on drug trafficking charges.
KKR-20260812-08manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-122026-10-1430%disasterUSGS records an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 300 km of USGS event us6000tjl2 with origin time between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-12 UTC.
KKR-20260812-09manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-122026-10-1425%military/conflictRussian authorities seize or detain a commercial vessel flagged in or owned by an EU or UK entity between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-12.
KKR-20260812-25control/baserate2026-08-122026-10-1433%disasterUSGS records an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 300 km of USGS event us6000tjl2 with origin time between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-12 UTC.
KKR-20260812-26control/baserate2026-08-122026-10-1433%military/conflictRussian authorities seize or detain a commercial vessel flagged in or owned by an EU or UK entity between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-12.
KKR-20260827-113operator/human2026-08-272026-10-1470%ai-claimsAnthropic records the provable inference prototype goal of its Frontier Safety Roadmap, stated as a prototype to be developed by 2026-09-30, as completed with a completion date on or before 2026-09-30, on the Frontier Safety Roadmap updates page at anthropic.com.
KKR-20260827-116control/baserate2026-08-272026-10-1443%ai-claimsAnthropic records the provable inference prototype goal of its Frontier Safety Roadmap, stated as a prototype to be developed by 2026-09-30, as completed with a completion date on or before 2026-09-30, on the Frontier Safety Roadmap updates page at anthropic.com.
KKR-20260831-11manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-312026-10-1430%politicalNiger's military-led government will publicly announce formal charges or the opening of a court-martial against at least one soldier arrested in the late-August 2026 Niamey mutiny attempt, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-12.
KKR-20260831-17manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-312026-10-1438%crime_securityGerman prosecutors will file a formal murder (Mord) charge, rather than a lesser homicide charge, against the suspect arrested for the fatal stabbing of a British woman at Rosenheim train station, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-12.
KKR-20260831-20control/baserate2026-08-312026-10-1444%politicalNiger's military-led government will publicly announce formal charges or the opening of a court-martial against at least one soldier arrested in the late-August 2026 Niamey mutiny attempt, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-12.
KKR-20260831-26control/baserate2026-08-312026-10-1443%crime_securityGerman prosecutors will file a formal murder (Mord) charge, rather than a lesser homicide charge, against the suspect arrested for the fatal stabbing of a British woman at Rosenheim train station, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-12.
KKR-20260902-42lmstudio/auto2026-09-022026-10-1440%politicalBetween 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-05, a new political scandal involving a U.S. federal official will be reported by two or more independent outlets, resulting in a formal investigation or resignation.
KKR-20260906-62lmstudio/auto2026-09-062026-10-1420%cyberBetween 2026-09-30 and 2026-10-07, a new cyberattack on a government system is confirmed by CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value in that window.
KKR-20260908-07lmstudio/auto2026-09-082026-10-1422%economics/marketsBetween 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-06, a new economic policy shift in Canada results in a 3% or greater increase in the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar at the close of a trading day.
KKR-20260908-28manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-082026-10-1445%economicThe FRED series DCOILWTICO (WTI Cushing spot, dollars per barrel) prints at least one observation at or above 100.00 dated between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09. Reference: WTI 92.66 on the packet date per Section V.
KKR-20260908-33control/baserate2026-09-082026-10-1421%economicThe FRED series DCOILWTICO (WTI Cushing spot, dollars per barrel) prints at least one observation at or above 100.00 dated between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-09. Reference: WTI 92.66 on the packet date per Section V.
KKR-20260722-06operator/human2026-07-222026-10-1570%politicalTikTok or another major platform announces age verification for French users
KKR-20260726-12lmstudio/auto2026-07-262026-10-1530%economics/marketsThe S&P 500 closes below 7,200 points on or before 2026-10-15 due to sustained investor panic over AI sector overvaluation.
KKR-20260731-05manual/fable-52026-07-312026-10-1570%cyberA major security vendor publicly attributes at least one new npm package compromise, distinct from the Debug and Chalk incidents, to North Korean actors between 2026-08-07 and 2026-10-15
KKR-20260731-07manual/fable-52026-07-312026-10-1525%military_conflictSaudi Arabia publicly confirms conducting new airstrikes inside Yemen between 2026-08-07 and 2026-10-15, breaking the post-2022 pattern of relative calm with the Houthis
KKR-20260827-19manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-272026-10-1545%disasterThe confirmed death toll in Nepal from the 2026-08-26 Bhotekoshi and Trishuli flooding reaches 300 or more, stated by a Nepali government body between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-12.
KKR-20260827-35control/baserate2026-08-272026-10-1533%disasterThe confirmed death toll in Nepal from the 2026-08-26 Bhotekoshi and Trishuli flooding reaches 300 or more, stated by a Nepali government body between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-12.
KKR-20260902-43lmstudio/auto2026-09-022026-10-1518%disasterBetween 2026-09-30 and 2026-10-06, a new flood disaster in Nepal will be confirmed by two or more independent sources, resulting in at least 100 fatalities.
KKR-20260906-68manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-062026-10-1525%military_conflictBetween 2026-09-13 and 2026-10-13, CENTCOM, the U.S. Department of Defense, or the Israeli Defense Forces will confirm at least one coalition service member killed or wounded in action from Iranian or IRGC-aligned action in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, or wider Persian Gulf theater.
KKR-20260906-74manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-062026-10-1535%disaster_infrastructureBetween 2026-09-13 and 2026-10-13, a further eruption of Mount Anak Krakatau will trigger a new suspension of flight operations at Soekarno-Hatta International Airport near Jakarta, following the multi-airport disruption on 2026-09-06.
KKR-20260906-94control/baserate2026-09-062026-10-1549%military_conflictBetween 2026-09-13 and 2026-10-13, CENTCOM, the U.S. Department of Defense, or the Israeli Defense Forces will confirm at least one coalition service member killed or wounded in action from Iranian or IRGC-aligned action in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, or wider Persian Gulf theater.
KKR-20260906-100control/baserate2026-09-062026-10-1536%disaster_infrastructureBetween 2026-09-13 and 2026-10-13, a further eruption of Mount Anak Krakatau will trigger a new suspension of flight operations at Soekarno-Hatta International Airport near Jakarta, following the multi-airport disruption on 2026-09-06.
KKR-20260907-17manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-072026-10-1540%military/conflictAmid reports questioning whether Iran can enforce a restricted zone in the Strait of Hormuz, the government of Iran or the IRGC Navy will formally declare a named restricted or exclusion zone in the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-12.
KKR-20260907-19manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-072026-10-1530%disasterReference: the packet dated 2026-09-07 reports more than 1,300 confirmed dead in the Nepal flooding. The cumulative confirmed death toll reported by disaster authorities in Nepal will reach or exceed 1,500 between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-12.
KKR-20260907-45control/baserate2026-09-072026-10-1549%military/conflictAmid reports questioning whether Iran can enforce a restricted zone in the Strait of Hormuz, the government of Iran or the IRGC Navy will formally declare a named restricted or exclusion zone in the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-12.
KKR-20260907-47control/baserate2026-09-072026-10-1536%disasterReference: the packet dated 2026-09-07 reports more than 1,300 confirmed dead in the Nepal flooding. The cumulative confirmed death toll reported by disaster authorities in Nepal will reach or exceed 1,500 between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-12.
KKR-20260908-08lmstudio/auto2026-09-082026-10-158%crime/securityBetween 2026-09-30 and 2026-10-07, a new criminal indictment is issued by a U.S. federal court against a high-profile political figure, confirmed by a public docket entry in the PACER system.
KKR-20260906-92manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-062026-10-1672%disaster_infrastructureThe USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one worldwide event of magnitude 7.0 or greater with an origin time between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-11.
KKR-20260906-118control/baserate2026-09-062026-10-1636%disaster_infrastructureThe USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one worldwide event of magnitude 7.0 or greater with an origin time between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-11.
KKR-20260907-38manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-072026-10-1645%military/conflictIsraeli strikes in Lebanon kill at least 25 people within a single 24-hour period between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-12.
KKR-20260907-66control/baserate2026-09-072026-10-1649%military/conflictIsraeli strikes in Lebanon kill at least 25 people within a single 24-hour period between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-12.
KKR-20260829-16manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-292026-10-1825%disaster_infrastructureA second, distinct flash-flood or lake-outburst event from the barrier lake in items 43 and 46 will hit Nepal or Tibet, separate from the flooding already reported as of 2026-08-28, between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260829-29control/baserate2026-08-292026-10-1852%disaster_infrastructureA second, distinct flash-flood or lake-outburst event from the barrier lake in items 43 and 46 will hit Nepal or Tibet, separate from the flooding already reported as of 2026-08-28, between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260808-15manual/opus-52026-08-082026-10-1955%cyberCISA adds a Metabase vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a date-added value between 2026-08-09 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260808-17manual/opus-52026-08-082026-10-1938%military_conflictIran publicly announces an agreed arrangement permitting international commercial transit of the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-08-11 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260812-12manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-122026-10-1922%military/conflictRussian forces seize or detain at least one commercial vessel flagged in or operated from an EU member state between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260812-15manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-122026-10-1928%disasterThe USGS earthquake catalog records at least one magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake located in Colombia with origin time between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260812-29control/baserate2026-08-122026-10-1933%military/conflictRussian forces seize or detain at least one commercial vessel flagged in or operated from an EU member state between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260812-32control/baserate2026-08-122026-10-1933%disasterThe USGS earthquake catalog records at least one magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake located in Colombia with origin time between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260813-14manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-132026-10-1982%crime/securityNick Reiner enters a plea in court to the indictment referenced in reporting dated 2026-08-13, with the plea entered between 2026-08-14 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260813-21control/baserate2026-08-132026-10-1933%crime/securityNick Reiner enters a plea in court to the indictment referenced in reporting dated 2026-08-13, with the plea entered between 2026-08-14 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260815-07manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-152026-10-1915%military_conflictA NATO member state formally requests Article 4 consultations between 2026-08-17 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260815-13control/baserate2026-08-152026-10-1933%military_conflictA NATO member state formally requests Article 4 consultations between 2026-08-17 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260815-18manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-152026-10-1942%military_conflictNATO or a Baltic national air force kinetically shoots down or intercepts a drone or unmanned aerial vehicle inside Estonian, Latvian, or Lithuanian airspace, distinct from the August 14, 2026 Balvi incident, between 2026-08-21 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260815-21control/baserate2026-08-152026-10-1933%military_conflictNATO or a Baltic national air force kinetically shoots down or intercepts a drone or unmanned aerial vehicle inside Estonian, Latvian, or Lithuanian airspace, distinct from the August 14, 2026 Balvi incident, between 2026-08-21 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260817-40manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-172026-10-1934%economics/marketsWTI crude oil settles at or above 90.00 USD per barrel on any trading day between 2026-08-17 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260817-48control/baserate2026-08-172026-10-1925%economics/marketsWTI crude oil settles at or above 90.00 USD per barrel on any trading day between 2026-08-17 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260817-58manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-172026-10-1960%cyberA CVE identifier for the Microsoft Defender vulnerability publicly tracked as ShieldBreak is added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-18 and 2026-10-16.
KKR-20260817-66control/baserate2026-08-172026-10-1923%cyberA CVE identifier for the Microsoft Defender vulnerability publicly tracked as ShieldBreak is added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-18 and 2026-10-16.
KKR-20260819-16manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-192026-10-1952%military/conflictThe UAE government publicly attributes a missile or drone impact on UAE territory or territorial waters to Iran, for an impact in the window 2026-08-26 to 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260819-25manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-192026-10-197%politicalBetween 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-17, Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada or Central Election Commission formally schedules a date for a presidential election, following the sacked defence minister's public call for one.
KKR-20260819-26manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-192026-10-1920%disasterBetween 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-17, the WHO Director-General declares the Democratic Republic of Congo Ebola outbreak, which reached 5,000 cases this window, a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.
KKR-20260819-37control/baserate2026-08-192026-10-1950%military/conflictThe UAE government publicly attributes a missile or drone impact on UAE territory or territorial waters to Iran, for an impact in the window 2026-08-26 to 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260819-46control/baserate2026-08-192026-10-1929%politicalBetween 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-17, Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada or Central Election Commission formally schedules a date for a presidential election, following the sacked defence minister's public call for one.
KKR-20260819-47control/baserate2026-08-192026-10-1933%disasterBetween 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-17, the WHO Director-General declares the Democratic Republic of Congo Ebola outbreak, which reached 5,000 cases this window, a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.
KKR-20260820-26manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-202026-10-1922%military_conflictUnited States forces conduct an officially acknowledged strike on targets inside Iranian territory between 2026-08-21 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260822-37manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-222026-10-1955%politicalBetween 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-15, the Government of Canada will formally impose new tariffs on US goods, described by Canadian officials as a dollar for dollar or matching response to the US tariff increase reported on 2026-08-22.
KKR-20260825-12manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-252026-10-1935%disasterOn at least one day between 2026-08-26 and 2026-10-15, the Singapore National Environment Agency 24-hour PSI for at least one of the five reporting regions reaches 101 or higher.
KKR-20260827-48control/baserate2026-08-272026-10-1933%disasterOn at least one day between 2026-08-26 and 2026-10-15, the Singapore National Environment Agency 24-hour PSI for at least one of the five reporting regions reaches 101 or higher.
KKR-20260827-78manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-272026-10-1927%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog entry for CVE-2026-8452, the Citrix NetScaler ADC and Gateway flaw added 2026-08-26, has its knownRansomwareCampaignUse field changed to Yes between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260827-101control/baserate2026-08-272026-10-1933%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog entry for CVE-2026-8452, the Citrix NetScaler ADC and Gateway flaw added 2026-08-26, has its knownRansomwareCampaignUse field changed to Yes between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260827-120manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-272026-10-1960%disasterThe official confirmed death toll from the late-August 2026 Nepal-Tibet flash floods will stand at 750 or more at some point between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260829-13manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-292026-10-1955%disasterThe combined confirmed death toll from the Nepal-Tibet flash floods reaches at least 1000 between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260829-26control/baserate2026-08-292026-10-1952%disasterThe combined confirmed death toll from the Nepal-Tibet flash floods reaches at least 1000 between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260829-53manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-292026-10-1985%militaryThe Ukrainian Air Force reports at least 500 Russian drones and missiles launched in one overnight attack between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260829-72control/baserate2026-08-292026-10-1953%militaryThe Ukrainian Air Force reports at least 500 Russian drones and missiles launched in one overnight attack between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260831-10manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-312026-10-1920%military_conflictA commercial vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz will be attacked, seized, or forcibly diverted, as reported by UKMTO, Reuters, or AP, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260831-19control/baserate2026-08-312026-10-1953%military_conflictA commercial vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz will be attacked, seized, or forcibly diverted, as reported by UKMTO, Reuters, or AP, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260831-30manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-312026-10-1945%cyberManchester Airports Group confirms unauthorized access to its systems in an attributable statement issued between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-16.
KKR-20260831-32manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-312026-10-1962%disasterThe confirmed cumulative death toll for the August 2026 Nepal-Tibet flood event reaches 1,000 or more in official figures issued between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-16.
KKR-20260831-37control/baserate2026-08-312026-10-1933%cyberManchester Airports Group confirms unauthorized access to its systems in an attributable statement issued between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-16.
KKR-20260831-39control/baserate2026-08-312026-10-1952%disasterThe confirmed cumulative death toll for the August 2026 Nepal-Tibet flood event reaches 1,000 or more in official figures issued between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-16.
KKR-20260831-71manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-312026-10-1925%cyberCISA or the FBI publishes an advisory formally attributing the Fire Ant intrusion campaign against Cisco network devices to a China-linked actor, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260831-78control/baserate2026-08-312026-10-1933%cyberCISA or the FBI publishes an advisory formally attributing the Fire Ant intrusion campaign against Cisco network devices to a China-linked actor, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260901-22manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-012026-10-1925%economics/marketsThe US 10-year Treasury yield closes at or above 5.00 percent on any trading day between 2026-09-02 and 2026-10-15. Reference: 4.77 percent on the packet date, 2026-09-01.
KKR-20260902-19control/baserate2026-09-022026-10-1925%economics/marketsThe US 10-year Treasury yield closes at or above 5.00 percent on any trading day between 2026-09-02 and 2026-10-15. Reference: 4.77 percent on the packet date, 2026-09-01.
KKR-20260902-53manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-022026-10-1970%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one SonicWall vulnerability with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260902-56manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-022026-10-1930%disaster_infrastructureA UN OCHA or Nepal NDRRMA report published between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-15 states a confirmed death toll of 1,500 or more from the 2026 Nepal-Tibet floods.
KKR-20260902-72control/baserate2026-09-022026-10-1930%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one SonicWall vulnerability with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260902-75control/baserate2026-09-022026-10-1936%disaster_infrastructureA UN OCHA or Nepal NDRRMA report published between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-15 states a confirmed death toll of 1,500 or more from the 2026 Nepal-Tibet floods.
KKR-20260903-07manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-032026-10-1930%disasterThe combined official confirmed death toll (excluding missing) from the Nepal-Tibet flood disaster reported from late August 2026 reaches at least 1,500 on any date between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-15. Reference: reported passing 1,000 on 2026-09-01.
KKR-20260903-14control/baserate2026-09-032026-10-1936%disasterThe combined official confirmed death toll (excluding missing) from the Nepal-Tibet flood disaster reported from late August 2026 reaches at least 1,500 on any date between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-15. Reference: reported passing 1,000 on 2026-09-01.
KKR-20260903-28manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-032026-10-1925%politicalLeon Black either appears for a rescheduled House Oversight Committee deposition or is formally held in contempt of Congress in connection with the Epstein-probe subpoena, between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-17.
KKR-20260903-59control/baserate2026-09-032026-10-1935%politicalLeon Black either appears for a rescheduled House Oversight Committee deposition or is formally held in contempt of Congress in connection with the Epstein-probe subpoena, between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-17.
KKR-20260904-42manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-042026-10-1918%disasterUSGS catalogs an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 300 km of event us7000tdvt with origin time between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260904-72control/baserate2026-09-042026-10-1936%disasterUSGS catalogs an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 300 km of event us7000tdvt with origin time between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260906-02manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-062026-10-199%military_conflictRussia and Ukraine, or their authorized representatives, publicly announce a signed ceasefire or peace agreement covering the active front line, following the 2026-09-05 arrival of US envoys Witkoff and Kushner in Moscow, at any point between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260906-29control/baserate2026-09-062026-10-1949%military_conflictRussia and Ukraine, or their authorized representatives, publicly announce a signed ceasefire or peace agreement covering the active front line, following the 2026-09-05 arrival of US envoys Witkoff and Kushner in Moscow, at any point between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260729-03lmstudio/auto2026-07-292026-10-2015%disasterOn or before 2026-10-20, a major earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher strikes Japan, resulting in over 1,000 fatalities.
KKR-20260804-60manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-042026-10-2085%politicalThe United States Senate confirms Todd Blanche as Attorney General in a recorded floor vote held between 2026-08-05 and 2026-10-16.
KKR-20260811-19manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-112026-10-2030%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog adds at least one new Microsoft SharePoint Server CVE, with dateAdded between 2026-08-12 and 2026-10-16.
KKR-20260811-45control/baserate2026-08-112026-10-2033%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog adds at least one new Microsoft SharePoint Server CVE, with dateAdded between 2026-08-12 and 2026-10-16.
KKR-20260818-19manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-182026-10-2058%politicalIn the Disney and ABC First Amendment suit against the FCC, the FCC files a motion to dismiss or an answer between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260818-35control/baserate2026-08-182026-10-2029%politicalIn the Disney and ABC First Amendment suit against the FCC, the FCC files a motion to dismiss or an answer between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260820-10manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-202026-10-2040%disasterThe USGS ComCat catalog records an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater with epicenter within 150 km of USGS event us6000tkt2 near Ende, Indonesia, with origin time between 2026-08-21 and 2026-10-16.
KKR-20260827-17manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-272026-10-2040%cyberA named extortion group publicly claims the Boston Scientific intrusion by listing the company on a leak site between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260827-33control/baserate2026-08-272026-10-2023%cyberA named extortion group publicly claims the Boston Scientific intrusion by listing the company on a leak site between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260829-49manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-292026-10-2078%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds CVE-2026-82078 or CVE-2026-81578 with a date_added value between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-16.
KKR-20260829-68control/baserate2026-08-292026-10-2033%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds CVE-2026-82078 or CVE-2026-81578 with a date_added value between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-16.
KKR-20260831-54manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-312026-10-2035%military_conflictA US or Gulf state authority publicly reports a naval mine detected, struck, or cleared in the Strait of Hormuz or its approaches between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260831-58manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-312026-10-2045%disaster_infrastructureThe Nepal disaster authority puts the confirmed death toll from the August 2026 Nepal-Tibet floods at 1500 or more, at some point between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260831-59manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-312026-10-2050%crime_securityGerman authorities name a suspect, announce an arrest, or announce a warrant in the Leipzig drone attack between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260831-62control/baserate2026-08-312026-10-2053%military_conflictA US or Gulf state authority publicly reports a naval mine detected, struck, or cleared in the Strait of Hormuz or its approaches between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260831-66control/baserate2026-08-312026-10-2052%disaster_infrastructureThe Nepal disaster authority puts the confirmed death toll from the August 2026 Nepal-Tibet floods at 1500 or more, at some point between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260831-67control/baserate2026-08-312026-10-2043%crime_securityGerman authorities name a suspect, announce an arrest, or announce a warrant in the Leipzig drone attack between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15.
KKR-20260904-34manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-042026-10-2012%military/conflictThe governments of Russia and Ukraine both announce a ceasefire or a mutual halt of long-range strikes with an effective date between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-16.
KKR-20260904-36manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-042026-10-2025%politicalArgentina publishes in the Boletin Oficial a decree or resolution imposing sanctions or restrictive economic measures aimed at the Falkland Islands, companies operating there, or UK entities over the islands, dated between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-16.
KKR-20260904-64control/baserate2026-09-042026-10-2049%military/conflictThe governments of Russia and Ukraine both announce a ceasefire or a mutual halt of long-range strikes with an effective date between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-16.
KKR-20260904-66control/baserate2026-09-042026-10-2035%politicalArgentina publishes in the Boletin Oficial a decree or resolution imposing sanctions or restrictive economic measures aimed at the Falkland Islands, companies operating there, or UK entities over the islands, dated between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-16.
KKR-20260906-82manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-062026-10-2060%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry for the Adobe Commerce or Magento vulnerability disclosed 2026-09-05, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-16.
KKR-20260906-108control/baserate2026-09-062026-10-2030%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry for the Adobe Commerce or Magento vulnerability disclosed 2026-09-05, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-16.
KKR-20260822-41manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-222026-10-2172%politicalA complaint challenging the lawfulness of the Section 338 tariffs on Canadian goods is filed in a US federal court between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-16.
KKR-20260822-45manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-222026-10-2158%crime_securityA jury returns a guilty verdict on the murder count against Duane Davis in the Clark County, Nevada prosecution over the 1996 killing of Tupac Shakur, between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-16.
KKR-20260827-79manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-272026-10-2138%cyberBoston Scientific files a Form 8-K Item 1.05 material cybersecurity incident disclosure with the SEC regarding the cyberattack disclosed 2026-08-26, between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-17.
KKR-20260827-102control/baserate2026-08-272026-10-2133%cyberBoston Scientific files a Form 8-K Item 1.05 material cybersecurity incident disclosure with the SEC regarding the cyberattack disclosed 2026-08-26, between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-17.
KKR-20260906-91manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-062026-10-2160%military_conflictUS and Iranian forces exchange at least one further direct kinetic strike on a vessel or maritime target in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Strait of Hormuz, occurring between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-16.
KKR-20260906-117control/baserate2026-09-062026-10-2149%military_conflictUS and Iranian forces exchange at least one further direct kinetic strike on a vessel or maritime target in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Strait of Hormuz, occurring between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-16.
KKR-20260729-10lmstudio/auto2026-07-292026-10-2220%disasterBetween 2026-10-15 and 2026-10-22, a major wildfire in California burns over 100,000 acres and causes at least 20 fatalities.
KKR-20260906-24manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-062026-10-2230%military_conflictYemeni government or Saudi-led coalition forces announce the capture of a named district in Houthi-held Hodeidah, al-Jawf, or Saada governorate, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-19.
KKR-20260906-51control/baserate2026-09-062026-10-2249%military_conflictYemeni government or Saudi-led coalition forces announce the capture of a named district in Houthi-held Hodeidah, al-Jawf, or Saada governorate, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-19.
KKR-20260907-16manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-072026-10-2225%cyberFollowing the report of a Telerik UI padding-oracle bug chained to unauthenticated remote code execution, the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog will add a Telerik UI entry between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-19.
KKR-20260907-44control/baserate2026-09-072026-10-2230%cyberFollowing the report of a Telerik UI padding-oracle bug chained to unauthenticated remote code execution, the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog will add a Telerik UI entry between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-19.
KKR-20260901-09manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-012026-10-2340%cyberBetween 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-16, Manchester Airports Group or a UK government body publicly confirms unauthorized access to MAG systems in connection with the FulcrumSec claim.
KKR-20260906-27manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-062026-10-2350%disaster_infrastructureThe USGS earthquake catalog records at least two events of magnitude 7.0 or greater worldwide between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-19.
KKR-20260906-54control/baserate2026-09-062026-10-2336%disaster_infrastructureThe USGS earthquake catalog records at least two events of magnitude 7.0 or greater worldwide between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-19.
KKR-20260829-43manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-292026-10-2665%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog will add an entry for CVE-2026-81578 or CVE-2026-82078, the actively exploited PaperCut NG/MF flaws, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-24.
KKR-20260829-62control/baserate2026-08-292026-10-2633%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog will add an entry for CVE-2026-81578 or CVE-2026-82078, the actively exploited PaperCut NG/MF flaws, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-24.
KKR-20260902-61manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-022026-10-2665%crime_security[withheld] Fourth District Court sets a specific trial start date for Tyler Robinson, the man charged with murdering Charlie Kirk, at the scheduled October 23, 2026 hearing.
KKR-20260902-80control/baserate2026-09-022026-10-2636%crime_security[withheld] Fourth District Court sets a specific trial start date for Tyler Robinson, the man charged with murdering Charlie Kirk, at the scheduled October 23, 2026 hearing.
KKR-20260906-73manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-062026-10-2745%cyberBetween 2026-09-13 and 2026-10-27, the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog will add an entry for Adobe Commerce or Magento Open Source tied to the zero-day exploitation reported on 2026-09-05.
KKR-20260906-88manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-062026-10-2752%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry naming Adobe Commerce or Magento, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-23.
KKR-20260906-99control/baserate2026-09-062026-10-2730%cyberBetween 2026-09-13 and 2026-10-27, the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog will add an entry for Adobe Commerce or Magento Open Source tied to the zero-day exploitation reported on 2026-09-05.
KKR-20260906-114control/baserate2026-09-062026-10-2730%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry naming Adobe Commerce or Magento, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-23.
KKR-20260907-40manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-072026-10-2738%disasterNepal's official confirmed flood death toll reaches 1,500 or higher between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-23.
KKR-20260907-68control/baserate2026-09-072026-10-2736%disasterNepal's official confirmed flood death toll reaches 1,500 or higher between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-23.
KKR-20260822-46manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-222026-10-2855%disasterUSGS catalogs at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater with an origin time between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-23.
KKR-20260829-45manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-292026-10-2852%politicalSerbia will hold its snap parliamentary election on 2026-10-25 rather than on 2026-10-18, the two dates floated by President Aleksandar Vucic.
KKR-20260829-64control/baserate2026-08-292026-10-2844%politicalSerbia will hold its snap parliamentary election on 2026-10-25 rather than on 2026-10-18, the two dates floated by President Aleksandar Vucic.
KKR-20260831-08lmstudio/auto2026-08-312026-10-2927%cyberA ransomware attack on a European government agency, confirmed by CISA or a national cybersecurity authority, occurs between 2026-10-20 and 2026-10-27.
KKR-20260724-04manual/fable2026-07-242026-10-3012%economicsThe 30-year US Treasury yield closes at or above 6.00 percent on at least one trading day between 2026-07-27 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260726-04manual/fable2026-07-262026-10-3085%crime_securityGerman authorities announce the arrest or formal charging of a suspect in the Berlin Pride vehicle attack between 2026-07-26 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260727-27manual/opus-52026-07-272026-10-3025%economics/marketsThe upper bound of the US federal funds target range is above 3.75 percent on 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260727-29manual/opus-52026-07-272026-10-3015%cyberCISA adds a vulnerability in the n8n workflow automation platform to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-07-28 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260728-04manual/opus-52026-07-282026-10-3015%economics/marketsThe upper bound of the US federal funds target range is above 3.75 percent on 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260728-07manual/opus-52026-07-282026-10-3055%cyberA US healthcare or medical-billing breach affecting more than 5,000,000 individuals is posted to the HHS breach portal between 2026-07-29 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260728-09manual/opus-52026-07-282026-10-3045%crime/securityAt least one person is charged in connection with either shooting near the United States consulate in Toronto, on or before 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260729-11manual/opus-52026-07-292026-10-3012%cyberCISA adds a Gitea remote-code-execution vulnerability to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-07-30 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260729-12manual/opus-52026-07-292026-10-3020%cyberCISA adds a vBulletin vulnerability to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-07-30 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260729-16manual/opus-52026-07-292026-10-3014%disasterGDACS issues a Red alert for any event located in Japan between 2026-07-30 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260729-17manual/opus-52026-07-292026-10-3022%economics/marketsThe United States 10-year Treasury par yield closes at or above 4.90 percent on at least one business day between 2026-07-30 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260729-18manual/opus-52026-07-292026-10-3072%economics/marketsThe ECB main refinancing operations rate on 2026-10-30 is unchanged from its level on 2026-07-29.
KKR-20260729-20manual/opus-52026-07-292026-10-3055%military/conflictA United States sanctions action designating Iranian persons or entities is published in the Federal Register between 2026-07-30 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260730-04manual/fable-52026-07-302026-10-3025%economics/marketsSituational Awareness LP or Leopold Aschenbrenner publicly announces that the fund is winding down, closing or returning external capital, between 2026-07-31 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260730-06manual/fable-52026-07-302026-10-3035%crime/securityThe Pakistani armed forces or ISPR publicly announce a new named military operation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa or the former tribal districts between 2026-07-31 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260730-12manual/opus-52026-07-302026-10-3038%economicFront-month Brent crude futures settle above 100.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260730-15manual/opus-52026-07-302026-10-3045%cyberPublic reporting attributes exploitation of Cisco CVE-2026-20316 to a specifically named nation-state actor or tracked threat group between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260730-17manual/opus-52026-07-302026-10-3055%economicThe Federal Open Market Committee announces a reduction in the federal funds target range at a scheduled meeting held between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260730-18manual/opus-52026-07-302026-10-3045%politicalThe US Senate confirms Todd Blanche as Attorney General between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260730-20manual/opus-52026-07-302026-10-3072%crime_securityA single attack in Pakistan kills at least 10 police or military personnel between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260731-08manual/fable-52026-07-312026-10-3030%politicalFIFA publicly suspends or withdraws the World Cup stake-sale investment plan between 2026-08-07 and 2026-10-30 amid UEFA opposition and senior adviser resignations
KKR-20260731-10manual/fable-52026-07-312026-10-3025%crime_securityThe mayor of St Paul, Minnesota resigns or announces resignation between 2026-08-07 and 2026-10-30 following sexual harassment allegations by two police officials
KKR-20260731-16manual/sonnet-52026-07-312026-10-3028%economics/marketsBetween 2026-07-31 and 2026-10-30, the Federal Reserve will announce an increase in the federal funds rate.
KKR-20260731-21manual/opus-52026-07-312026-10-3025%military_conflictA named international monitor, the Gaza Board of Peace, or the US government publicly confirms that Hamas has physically handed over heavy weapons between 2026-08-07 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260731-26manual/opus-52026-07-312026-10-3038%cyberCISA adds the JetBrains TeamCity remote code execution vulnerability disclosed in late July 2026 to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-08-07 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260731-27manual/opus-52026-07-312026-10-3028%economicThe CBOE Volatility Index closes above 35.00 on at least one trading day between 2026-08-07 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260801-03manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-012026-10-3045%military/conflictThe US Department of Defense or the White House publicly confirms US military strikes on targets inside Iran between 2026-08-08 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260801-05manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-012026-10-3028%economics/marketsICE Brent front-month crude settles above 110.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-10 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260801-09manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-012026-10-3033%cyberCISA adds an Adobe Campaign Classic vulnerability to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-08-08 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260801-22manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-012026-10-3012%military/conflictCommercial vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz is suspended for 48 or more consecutive hours between 2026-08-02 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260801-26manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-012026-10-3022%cyberCISA adds an Adobe Campaign Classic vulnerability first disclosed between 2026-07-28 and 2026-08-01 to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-08-02 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260822-17manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-222026-10-3055%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog carries an entry for CVE-2026-19478 with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-21 and 2026-10-23.
KKR-20260902-11manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-022026-10-3022%economics_marketsThe FOMC raises the federal funds target range at the meeting concluding 2026-09-16 or the meeting concluding 2026-10-28. Reference: target range 3.50 to 3.75 percent in effect at seal on 2026-09-01.
KKR-20260902-32control/baserate2026-09-022026-10-3025%economics_marketsThe FOMC raises the federal funds target range at the meeting concluding 2026-09-16 or the meeting concluding 2026-10-28. Reference: target range 3.50 to 3.75 percent in effect at seal on 2026-09-01.
KKR-20260722-12manual/fable2026-07-222026-10-3170%politicalAt least one major social media platform (Meta, TikTok, Snap, or X) publicly announces an age-verification mechanism for French users between 2026-07-23 and 2026-10-31
KKR-20260725-10manual/fable2026-07-252026-10-3145%politicalA US federal court or the Supreme Court issues a ruling in a challenge to Trump administration tariffs between 2026-07-27 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260727-19manual/fable2026-07-272026-10-3135%politicalThe German federal cabinet will approve a draft bill tightening extremism or weapons law that explicitly references the Berlin Pride attack, on or before 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260727-23manual/fable2026-07-272026-10-3138%military/conflictAn official United States Department of Defense or service publication will report more than 900 US service members injured in the Iran conflict since February 2026, published on or before 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260801-17manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-012026-10-3130%cyberCISA, EPA, or FBI will issue an advisory, or Reuters or AP will report, that a cyberattack disrupted operational technology at a US water or wastewater utility, between 2026-08-08 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260801-18manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-012026-10-3152%cyberOpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, or xAI will disclose a new case, beyond incidents already public as of 2026-08-01, of one of its models autonomously breaching third-party systems, between 2026-08-08 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260812-06manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-122026-11-0250%cyberA vulnerability affecting VMware vCenter Server is added to the CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260812-23control/baserate2026-08-122026-11-0233%cyberA vulnerability affecting VMware vCenter Server is added to the CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260817-04manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-172026-11-0230%economics/marketsICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-17 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260817-09control/baserate2026-08-172026-11-0225%economics/marketsICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-17 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260817-12manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-172026-11-0230%economicICE Brent front-month futures settle at or above USD 100.00 per barrel on at least one trading session between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260817-17control/baserate2026-08-172026-11-0225%economicICE Brent front-month futures settle at or above USD 100.00 per barrel on at least one trading session between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260819-13manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-192026-11-0270%disasterThe USGS catalog records at least one magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake within 250 km of event us6000tkt2 with origin time between 2026-08-20 and 2026-10-31 UTC.
KKR-20260819-34control/baserate2026-08-192026-11-0233%disasterThe USGS catalog records at least one magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake within 250 km of event us6000tkt2 with origin time between 2026-08-20 and 2026-10-31 UTC.
KKR-20260902-51manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-022026-11-0235%economicICE Brent front-month futures settle at or above 110.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 95.33 on the packet date 2026-09-02.
KKR-20260902-70control/baserate2026-09-022026-11-0221%economicICE Brent front-month futures settle at or above 110.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 95.33 on the packet date 2026-09-02.
KKR-20260906-04manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-062026-11-028%politicalPete Hegseth leaves his Pentagon leadership role (resignation, removal, or reassignment), following the criticism referenced in the 2026-09-05 Guardian report, at any point between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260906-12manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-062026-11-0265%crime/securityBetween 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-30, the Plymouth County District Attorney announces that the Commonwealth will retry Lindsay Clancy on the murder charges, or the Plymouth Superior Court schedules a retrial date.
KKR-20260906-31control/baserate2026-09-062026-11-0235%politicalPete Hegseth leaves his Pentagon leadership role (resignation, removal, or reassignment), following the criticism referenced in the 2026-09-05 Guardian report, at any point between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260906-39control/baserate2026-09-062026-11-0236%crime/securityBetween 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-30, the Plymouth County District Attorney announces that the Commonwealth will retry Lindsay Clancy on the murder charges, or the Plymouth Superior Court schedules a retrial date.
KKR-20260906-72manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-062026-11-0232%economicBetween 2026-09-13 and 2026-11-01, Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey will report a weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 7.25 percent or higher on at least one release. Reference: approximately 7.00 percent as reported 2026-09-05.
KKR-20260906-98control/baserate2026-09-062026-11-0221%economicBetween 2026-09-13 and 2026-11-01, Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey will report a weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 7.25 percent or higher on at least one release. Reference: approximately 7.00 percent as reported 2026-09-05.
KKR-20260802-04lmstudio/auto2026-08-022026-11-0335%economics/marketsBetween 2026-11-01 and 2026-11-03, a new financial regulation in the European Union will be enacted requiring all banks to report real-time transaction data to a central authority.
KKR-20260803-01control/baserate2026-08-032026-11-0325%economics/marketsBetween 2026-11-01 and 2026-11-03, a new financial regulation in the European Union will be enacted requiring all banks to report real-time transaction data to a central authority.
KKR-20260804-25manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-042026-11-0335%politicalUS and Iranian officials hold a confirmed direct bilateral meeting between 2026-08-10 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260804-41control/baserate2026-08-042026-11-0325%politicalUS and Iranian officials hold a confirmed direct bilateral meeting between 2026-08-10 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260804-59manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-042026-11-0318%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog adds a further N-able N-central vulnerability with a date-added value between 2026-08-05 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260806-01manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-062026-11-0348%economicsICE Brent front-month crude futures settle at or below 70.00 USD per barrel on at least one settlement date between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260806-11manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-062026-11-0325%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog adds at least one entry for Gitea, n8n, or TP-Link Omada with a date-added value between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260806-16control/baserate2026-08-062026-11-0331%economicsICE Brent front-month crude futures settle at or below 70.00 USD per barrel on at least one settlement date between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260806-26control/baserate2026-08-062026-11-0331%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog adds at least one entry for Gitea, n8n, or TP-Link Omada with a date-added value between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260810-12manual/fable-52026-08-102026-11-0385%economics/marketsIntel prices or completes a common stock offering of at least 10 billion USD between 2026-08-11 and 2026-10-30, per filings on SEC EDGAR.
KKR-20260810-18manual/opus-52026-08-102026-11-0312%economics/marketsNYMEX front-month WTI crude settles at or above 100.00 dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-11 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260810-34control/baserate2026-08-102026-11-0318%economics/marketsNYMEX front-month WTI crude settles at or above 100.00 dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-11 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260811-18manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-112026-11-0350%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one CVE whose vendorProject is Fortinet or Schneider Electric, with dateAdded between 2026-08-12 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260811-44control/baserate2026-08-112026-11-0333%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one CVE whose vendorProject is Fortinet or Schneider Electric, with dateAdded between 2026-08-12 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260812-13manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-122026-11-0345%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog gains an entry naming Microsoft SharePoint Server or VMware vCenter Server with a date-added value between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260812-30control/baserate2026-08-122026-11-0333%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog gains an entry naming Microsoft SharePoint Server or VMware vCenter Server with a date-added value between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260813-09manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-132026-11-0385%politicalThe White House publicly names a specific individual as the next White House press secretary, acting or permanent, between 2026-08-14 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260813-12manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-132026-11-0320%military/conflictThe United States and Iran both publicly confirm a ceasefire or framework agreement between them, with confirmations dated between 2026-08-14 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260813-16control/baserate2026-08-132026-11-0333%politicalThe White House publicly names a specific individual as the next White House press secretary, acting or permanent, between 2026-08-14 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260813-19control/baserate2026-08-132026-11-0333%military/conflictThe United States and Iran both publicly confirm a ceasefire or framework agreement between them, with confirmations dated between 2026-08-14 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260817-69manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-172026-11-0370%cyberCISA adds the exploited VMware vCenter flaw CVE-2026-59310 to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-08-18 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260817-72control/baserate2026-08-172026-11-0323%cyberCISA adds the exploited VMware vCenter flaw CVE-2026-59310 to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-08-18 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260818-11manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-182026-11-0315%cyberA vulnerability in a GitLab product is added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260818-14manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-182026-11-0360%disasterThe USGS earthquake catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or greater with an epicenter in Indonesia occurring between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-31 UTC.
KKR-20260818-27control/baserate2026-08-182026-11-0323%cyberA vulnerability in a GitLab product is added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260818-30control/baserate2026-08-182026-11-0333%disasterThe USGS earthquake catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or greater with an epicenter in Indonesia occurring between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-31 UTC.
KKR-20260819-07manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-192026-11-0345%economics/marketsICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-20 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260819-28control/baserate2026-08-192026-11-0325%economics/marketsICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-20 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260820-12manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-202026-11-0350%economics/marketsICE Brent crude front-month futures record an official daily settlement at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-21 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260820-27manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-202026-11-0340%economicICE Brent front-month crude futures settle at or above 100.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-21 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260822-30manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-222026-11-0340%economics/marketsThe 10-year US Treasury constant-maturity yield closes at or above 5.00 percent on at least one trading day between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260822-38manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-222026-11-0320%cyberBetween 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-31, a named cybersecurity outlet will report a confirmed unauthorized access incident, data breach, or cloud resource abuse case attributed to the leaked AWS keys documented on 2026-08-21.
KKR-20260825-11manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-252026-11-0355%cyberBetween 2026-08-26 and 2026-10-31, CISA adds to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog at least one Zimbra Collaboration vulnerability other than CVE-2026-73570.
KKR-20260827-02manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-272026-11-0325%cyberBoston Scientific files a Form 8-K or 8-K/A with the SEC that includes Item 1.05, Material Cybersecurity Incidents, for the August 2026 cyberattack between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-30, following its initial Item 8.01 disclosure.
KKR-20260827-24control/baserate2026-08-272026-11-0323%cyberBoston Scientific files a Form 8-K or 8-K/A with the SEC that includes Item 1.05, Material Cybersecurity Incidents, for the August 2026 cyberattack between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-30, following its initial Item 8.01 disclosure.
KKR-20260827-47control/baserate2026-08-272026-11-0323%cyberBetween 2026-08-26 and 2026-10-31, CISA adds to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog at least one Zimbra Collaboration vulnerability other than CVE-2026-73570.
KKR-20260827-70manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-272026-11-0325%cyberCISA adds a vulnerability in the Avada WordPress theme to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded between 2026-08-28 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260827-73manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-272026-11-0320%military/conflictThe United States and Iran both publicly confirm signing a final agreement ending the war that began on 2026-02-28, with the signing occurring between 2026-08-28 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260827-75manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-272026-11-0345%crime/securitySpanish authorities (Guardia Civil or Policia Nacional) announce at least one arrest in the 2026-08-27 Villena Treasure theft between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260827-93control/baserate2026-08-272026-11-0333%cyberCISA adds a vulnerability in the Avada WordPress theme to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded between 2026-08-28 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260827-96control/baserate2026-08-272026-11-0353%military/conflictThe United States and Iran both publicly confirm signing a final agreement ending the war that began on 2026-02-28, with the signing occurring between 2026-08-28 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260827-98control/baserate2026-08-272026-11-0343%crime/securitySpanish authorities (Guardia Civil or Policia Nacional) announce at least one arrest in the 2026-08-27 Villena Treasure theft between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260829-38manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-292026-11-0350%disasterBy 2026-10-30, the combined official confirmed death toll from the August 2026 Nepal-Tibet glacial outburst floods, per Nepali and Chinese authorities, reaches at least 1,000.
KKR-20260829-42manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-292026-11-0330%crime/securityBetween 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-31, US authorities remove Milo Yiannopoulos from the United States.
KKR-20260829-57control/baserate2026-08-292026-11-0352%disasterBy 2026-10-30, the combined official confirmed death toll from the August 2026 Nepal-Tibet glacial outburst floods, per Nepali and Chinese authorities, reaches at least 1,000.
KKR-20260829-61control/baserate2026-08-292026-11-0343%crime/securityBetween 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-31, US authorities remove Milo Yiannopoulos from the United States.
KKR-20260831-56manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-312026-11-0370%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog carries at least 30 entries with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260831-57manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-312026-11-0340%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog carries at least one entry naming Cisco as vendorProject with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260831-64control/baserate2026-08-312026-11-0333%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog carries at least 30 entries with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260831-65control/baserate2026-08-312026-11-0333%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog carries at least one entry naming Cisco as vendorProject with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260831-84manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-312026-11-0355%economics/marketsICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above 95.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260831-85manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-312026-11-0345%disasterThe Nepal government confirmed death toll from the August 2026 flood disaster reaches at least 300 at any point between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260831-89control/baserate2026-08-312026-11-0325%economics/marketsICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above 95.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260831-90control/baserate2026-08-312026-11-0352%disasterThe Nepal government confirmed death toll from the August 2026 flood disaster reaches at least 300 at any point between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260902-10manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-022026-11-0340%economics_marketsThe US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield reaches 5.00 percent or higher on at least one business day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 4.77 percent at seal on 2026-09-01.
KKR-20260902-31control/baserate2026-09-022026-11-0325%economics_marketsThe US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield reaches 5.00 percent or higher on at least one business day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 4.77 percent at seal on 2026-09-01.
KKR-20260902-45manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-022026-11-0345%economics/marketsFront-month NYMEX WTI crude settles at or above 100.00 dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 90.59 on the packet date.
KKR-20260902-64control/baserate2026-09-022026-11-0321%economics/marketsFront-month NYMEX WTI crude settles at or above 100.00 dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 90.59 on the packet date.
KKR-20260903-01manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-032026-11-0335%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-31 the United States government and the government of Iran each publicly confirm a ceasefire, truce, or mutual halt to strikes between the two states.
KKR-20260903-06manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-032026-11-0350%politicalBetween 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-30 the Council of the EU adopts a new numbered package of sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine, with the legal acts published in the Official Journal of the European Union.
KKR-20260903-08control/baserate2026-09-032026-11-0349%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-31 the United States government and the government of Iran each publicly confirm a ceasefire, truce, or mutual halt to strikes between the two states.
KKR-20260903-13control/baserate2026-09-032026-11-0335%politicalBetween 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-30 the Council of the EU adopts a new numbered package of sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine, with the legal acts published in the Official Journal of the European Union.
KKR-20260903-40manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-032026-11-0372%economics/marketsICE Brent crude front-month futures record a daily settlement at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-30. Reference: Brent 96.70 at packet seal on 2026-09-03.
KKR-20260903-71control/baserate2026-09-032026-11-0321%economics/marketsICE Brent crude front-month futures record a daily settlement at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-30. Reference: Brent 96.70 at packet seal on 2026-09-03.
KKR-20260904-29manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-042026-11-0322%politicalThe Philippine Court of Appeals or Supreme Court issues a temporary restraining order, status quo ante order, or injunction halting the Quezon City RTC Branch 98 grave threats proceedings against Vice President Sara Duterte between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260904-41manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-042026-11-0350%politicalPhilippine Vice President Sara Duterte is taken into physical custody or surrenders to a Philippine court between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260904-59control/baserate2026-09-042026-11-0335%politicalThe Philippine Court of Appeals or Supreme Court issues a temporary restraining order, status quo ante order, or injunction halting the Quezon City RTC Branch 98 grave threats proceedings against Vice President Sara Duterte between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260904-71control/baserate2026-09-042026-11-0335%politicalPhilippine Vice President Sara Duterte is taken into physical custody or surrenders to a Philippine court between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260906-80manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-062026-11-0312%cyberBetween 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-30 inclusive, CISA adds to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog at least one CVE whose product is VMware Workstation or VMware Fusion (vendor VMware or Broadcom), with a dateAdded value in that range.
KKR-20260906-106control/baserate2026-09-062026-11-0330%cyberBetween 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-30 inclusive, CISA adds to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog at least one CVE whose product is VMware Workstation or VMware Fusion (vendor VMware or Broadcom), with a dateAdded value in that range.
KKR-20260907-35manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-072026-11-0370%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog adds at least one vulnerability with vendorProject N-able, carrying a dateAdded value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260907-63control/baserate2026-09-072026-11-0330%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog adds at least one vulnerability with vendorProject N-able, carrying a dateAdded value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260806-10manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-062026-11-0460%military/conflictA Russian missile or drone strike on Kyiv city kills at least 5 people in a single attack between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-31, per Ukrainian official casualty statements.
KKR-20260806-25control/baserate2026-08-062026-11-0431%military/conflictA Russian missile or drone strike on Kyiv city kills at least 5 people in a single attack between 2026-08-06 and 2026-10-31, per Ukrainian official casualty statements.
KKR-20260809-04manual/fable-52026-08-092026-11-0435%military/conflictAn attack on or seizure of a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman, attributed to Iran or Iran-aligned forces, occurs between 2026-08-10 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260810-20manual/opus-52026-08-102026-11-0418%politicalThe Israeli cabinet or security cabinet formally approves the United States 15-point Gaza plan between 2026-08-11 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260810-36control/baserate2026-08-102026-11-0430%politicalThe Israeli cabinet or security cabinet formally approves the United States 15-point Gaza plan between 2026-08-11 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260811-14manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-112026-11-0435%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one Microsoft SharePoint vulnerability with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-12 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260811-40control/baserate2026-08-112026-11-0433%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one Microsoft SharePoint vulnerability with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-12 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260817-70manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-172026-11-046%military/conflictUS forces conduct a military strike on Omani territory or Omani territorial waters between 2026-08-18 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260817-73control/baserate2026-08-172026-11-0450%military/conflictUS forces conduct a military strike on Omani territory or Omani territorial waters between 2026-08-18 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260818-16manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-182026-11-047%military/conflictThe United States conducts at least one military strike on Omani territory between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260818-32control/baserate2026-08-182026-11-0450%military/conflictThe United States conducts at least one military strike on Omani territory between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260819-15manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-192026-11-0493%disasterAt least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or greater occurs worldwide with origin time in the window 2026-08-26 to 2026-10-31 UTC.
KKR-20260819-36control/baserate2026-08-192026-11-0433%disasterAt least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or greater occurs worldwide with origin time in the window 2026-08-26 to 2026-10-31 UTC.
KKR-20260822-43manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-222026-11-0462%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog gains at least one entry with vendorProject Microsoft and a dateAdded between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260825-10manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-252026-11-0460%cyberBetween 2026-08-25 and 2026-10-31, the HHS Office for Civil Rights breach portal posts an entry naming Nutex Health or a Nutex-affiliated hospital with 500 or more individuals affected.
KKR-20260827-16manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-272026-11-0445%cyberCISA catalogues a Microsoft SharePoint vulnerability as actively exploited, with a KEV date-added value between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260827-32control/baserate2026-08-272026-11-0423%cyberCISA catalogues a Microsoft SharePoint vulnerability as actively exploited, with a KEV date-added value between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260827-83manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-272026-11-0458%crime_securityAt least one individual arrested in the TeamPCP supply-chain hacking case is formally charged by an Australian prosecutorial authority or a foreign partner agency, between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260827-85manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-272026-11-0462%economics/marketsThe Federal Register will publish at least one presidential proclamation or executive order imposing new or increased US tariff rates, dated between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260827-86manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-272026-11-0433%military/conflictThe United States and Iran will hold publicly acknowledged direct bilateral talks between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260827-88manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-272026-11-0475%politicalKing Harald V of Norway will die between 2026-08-28 and 2026-10-31 and Crown Prince Haakon will succeed him as king.
KKR-20260827-106control/baserate2026-08-272026-11-0443%crime_securityAt least one individual arrested in the TeamPCP supply-chain hacking case is formally charged by an Australian prosecutorial authority or a foreign partner agency, between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260827-108control/baserate2026-08-272026-11-0425%economics/marketsThe Federal Register will publish at least one presidential proclamation or executive order imposing new or increased US tariff rates, dated between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260827-109control/baserate2026-08-272026-11-0453%military/conflictThe United States and Iran will hold publicly acknowledged direct bilateral talks between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260827-111control/baserate2026-08-272026-11-0444%politicalKing Harald V of Norway will die between 2026-08-28 and 2026-10-31 and Crown Prince Haakon will succeed him as king.
KKR-20260829-21manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-292026-11-0445%disasterCombined confirmed deaths from the Nepal-Tibet glacial outburst flood reach 1,000 or more at some point between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260829-34control/baserate2026-08-292026-11-0452%disasterCombined confirmed deaths from the Nepal-Tibet glacial outburst flood reach 1,000 or more at some point between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260829-50manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-292026-11-0440%cyberStolen City of Berlin administrative data is published on an extortion leak site between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260829-54manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-292026-11-0442%disasterThe confirmed death toll in Nepal from the 2026-08-26 Rasuwa flood reaches at least 1000 between 2026-08-30 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260829-69control/baserate2026-08-292026-11-0433%cyberStolen City of Berlin administrative data is published on an extortion leak site between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260829-73control/baserate2026-08-292026-11-0452%disasterThe confirmed death toll in Nepal from the 2026-08-26 Rasuwa flood reaches at least 1000 between 2026-08-30 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260831-60manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-312026-11-0465%disaster_infrastructureUkrenergo or DTEK announces emergency or rolling power cuts affecting Kyiv city on at least one day between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260831-68control/baserate2026-08-312026-11-0452%disaster_infrastructureUkrenergo or DTEK announces emergency or rolling power cuts affecting Kyiv city on at least one day between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260901-08manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-012026-11-0412%military/conflictCommercial shipping transit through the Strait of Hormuz is suspended for at least 48 consecutive hours at any point between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260902-02manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-022026-11-0430%politicalBetween 2026-09-02 and 2026-10-31, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in person, with the meeting confirmed by both the White House and the Kremlin.
KKR-20260902-04manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-022026-11-0440%economics/marketsThe 10-year US Treasury constant maturity yield closes at or above 5.00 percent on at least one trading day between 2026-09-02 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 4.77 percent on 2026-09-01.
KKR-20260902-05manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-022026-11-0430%economics/marketsThe WTI crude oil spot price at Cushing settles at or above 100.00 dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-02 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 88.02 dollars on 2026-09-01.
KKR-20260902-23control/baserate2026-09-022026-11-0444%politicalBetween 2026-09-02 and 2026-10-31, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in person, with the meeting confirmed by both the White House and the Kremlin.
KKR-20260902-25control/baserate2026-09-022026-11-0425%economics/marketsThe 10-year US Treasury constant maturity yield closes at or above 5.00 percent on at least one trading day between 2026-09-02 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 4.77 percent on 2026-09-01.
KKR-20260902-26control/baserate2026-09-022026-11-0425%economics/marketsThe WTI crude oil spot price at Cushing settles at or above 100.00 dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-02 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 88.02 dollars on 2026-09-01.
KKR-20260902-48manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-022026-11-0412%military/conflictA continuous suspension of laden tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz lasting at least 72 hours begins between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260902-67control/baserate2026-09-022026-11-0449%military/conflictA continuous suspension of laden tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz lasting at least 72 hours begins between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260903-36manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-032026-11-0430%crime/securityUK Home Office figures record 900 or more people arriving in the UK by small boat on at least one single day between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260903-39manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-032026-11-0455%politicalBetween 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-31, a decree published on the official website of the President of Ukraine removes the serving head of the SBU or the serving head of the GUR from that post.
KKR-20260903-67control/baserate2026-09-032026-11-0436%crime/securityUK Home Office figures record 900 or more people arriving in the UK by small boat on at least one single day between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260903-70control/baserate2026-09-032026-11-0435%politicalBetween 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-31, a decree published on the official website of the President of Ukraine removes the serving head of the SBU or the serving head of the GUR from that post.
KKR-20260904-33manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-042026-11-0440%economics/marketsThe 10-year US Treasury constant maturity yield prints at or above 5.00 percent on at least one business day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 4.78 percent on the packet date.
KKR-20260904-63control/baserate2026-09-042026-11-0421%economics/marketsThe 10-year US Treasury constant maturity yield prints at or above 5.00 percent on at least one business day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 4.78 percent on the packet date.
KKR-20260906-77manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-062026-11-0415%politicalBetween 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-31 inclusive, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin hold an in-person meeting, confirmed by both the White House and the Kremlin.
KKR-20260906-103control/baserate2026-09-062026-11-0435%politicalBetween 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-31 inclusive, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin hold an in-person meeting, confirmed by both the White House and the Kremlin.
KKR-20260907-21manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-072026-11-0438%economics/marketsThe US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield closes at or above 5.00 percent on at least one business day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 4.78 percent on the packet date 2026-09-07.
KKR-20260907-25manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-072026-11-0425%military/conflictOfficial Russian and Ukrainian government delegations hold a direct in-person negotiating session, bilateral or with third-party mediation, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260907-29manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-072026-11-0485%disasterThe NTSB publishes a preliminary report on the 2026-09-06 cargo aircraft accident at Miami International Airport between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260907-37manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-072026-11-0455%military/conflictA commercial vessel is struck by weapons fire, forcibly boarded, or seized in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Oman between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260907-49control/baserate2026-09-072026-11-0421%economics/marketsThe US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield closes at or above 5.00 percent on at least one business day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30. Reference: 4.78 percent on the packet date 2026-09-07.
KKR-20260907-53control/baserate2026-09-072026-11-0449%military/conflictOfficial Russian and Ukrainian government delegations hold a direct in-person negotiating session, bilateral or with third-party mediation, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260907-57control/baserate2026-09-072026-11-0436%disasterThe NTSB publishes a preliminary report on the 2026-09-06 cargo aircraft accident at Miami International Airport between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-30.
KKR-20260907-65control/baserate2026-09-072026-11-0449%military/conflictA commercial vessel is struck by weapons fire, forcibly boarded, or seized in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Oman between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260722-01lmstudio/auto2026-07-222026-11-0530%politicalAndy Biggs wins the Arizona gubernatorial general election on 2026-11-05, defeating Katie Hobbs in a recount that confirms his victory by 1,200 votes.
KKR-20260804-66manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-042026-11-0655%crime/securityBetween 2026-08-04 and 2026-11-04, the person charged with arson over the Old Trails wildfire in item 9 will be indicted or have an information filed advancing the case to Washington Superior Court.
KKR-20260804-67manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-042026-11-0625%politicalBetween 2026-08-04 and 2026-11-04, the Second Circuit Court of Appeals will enter an order or ruling, on the merits or on a stay motion, in New York's case over the ICE-officer mask ban blocked in item 113.
KKR-20260822-44manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-222026-11-0632%cyberA single npm registry supply-chain compromise affecting 100 or more distinct packages occurs between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260827-13manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-272026-11-0632%military_conflictA temporary joint Iran-Oman maritime corridor through the Strait of Hormuz becomes operational, carrying at least one vessel transit between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260827-15manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-272026-11-0682%politicalOFAC designates at least one foreign-registered company or non-Iranian-flagged vessel for facilitating Iranian oil sales, in an action dated between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260827-29control/baserate2026-08-272026-11-0650%military_conflictA temporary joint Iran-Oman maritime corridor through the Strait of Hormuz becomes operational, carrying at least one vessel transit between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260827-31control/baserate2026-08-272026-11-0629%politicalOFAC designates at least one foreign-registered company or non-Iranian-flagged vessel for facilitating Iranian oil sales, in an action dated between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-31.
KKR-20260901-10manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-012026-11-0660%disasterBetween 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-30, the reported confirmed combined death toll for the August 2026 Nepal and Tibet floods reaches or exceeds 1000.
KKR-20260903-50manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-032026-11-0625%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog gains at least 50 new entries with date-added values between 2026-09-08 and 2026-11-02 inclusive.
KKR-20260903-81control/baserate2026-09-032026-11-0630%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog gains at least 50 new entries with date-added values between 2026-09-08 and 2026-11-02 inclusive.
KKR-20260831-29manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-312026-11-0925%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry naming WordPress or a WordPress plugin or theme, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-07 and 2026-11-06.
KKR-20260831-36control/baserate2026-08-312026-11-0933%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry naming WordPress or a WordPress plugin or theme, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-07 and 2026-11-06.
KKR-20260903-51manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-032026-11-0945%crime_securityBetween 2026-09-04 and 2026-11-04, Ukraine issues a notice of suspicion against at least one serving SBU or HUR officer over the Kyiv inter-agency shootout.
KKR-20260903-82control/baserate2026-09-032026-11-0936%crime_securityBetween 2026-09-04 and 2026-11-04, Ukraine issues a notice of suspicion against at least one serving SBU or HUR officer over the Kyiv inter-agency shootout.
KKR-20260806-08manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-062026-11-1055%politicalAbdul El-Sayed will win the 2026 Michigan US Senate general election held on 2026-11-03.
KKR-20260806-23control/baserate2026-08-062026-11-1031%politicalAbdul El-Sayed will win the 2026 Michigan US Senate general election held on 2026-11-03.
KKR-20260901-01manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-012026-11-1045%politicalThe Federal Register publishes at least one Presidential Document adjusting duties on steel or aluminum imports into the United States, with a publication date between 2026-09-08 and 2026-11-06.
KKR-20260903-48manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-032026-11-1055%economics_marketsICE Brent front-month futures settle at or below 88.00 dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-11-06. Reference: 96.70 on the packet date.
KKR-20260903-79control/baserate2026-09-032026-11-1021%economics_marketsICE Brent front-month futures settle at or below 88.00 dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-11-06. Reference: 96.70 on the packet date.
KKR-20260908-27manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-082026-11-1022%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds CVE-2026-44756 (SAP Kernel OVERPASS) or CVE-2026-58240 (SAP NetWeaver Message Server S4GET) with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-11-06.
KKR-20260908-32control/baserate2026-09-082026-11-1030%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds CVE-2026-44756 (SAP Kernel OVERPASS) or CVE-2026-58240 (SAP NetWeaver Message Server S4GET) with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-11-06.
KKR-20260908-55manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-082026-11-1025%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog carries at least one SAP vendor CVE with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-09 and 2026-11-06.
KKR-20260908-62control/baserate2026-09-082026-11-1030%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog carries at least one SAP vendor CVE with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-09 and 2026-11-06.
KKR-20260811-35manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-112026-11-1112%crime_securityA US federal agency will file new public criminal or civil charges against Gautam Adani or a named Adani Group executive, occurring between 2026-08-11 and 2026-11-09, despite the dismissal in item 9.
KKR-20260811-61control/baserate2026-08-112026-11-1133%crime_securityA US federal agency will file new public criminal or civil charges against Gautam Adani or a named Adani Group executive, occurring between 2026-08-11 and 2026-11-09, despite the dismissal in item 9.
KKR-20260729-04lmstudio/auto2026-07-292026-11-1240%politicalBetween 2026-11-05 and 2026-11-12, the U.S. Senate confirms a nominee to the Supreme Court who has previously served as a federal judge.
KKR-20260809-17manual/sonnet-52026-08-092026-11-1255%economics/marketsThe Form 10-Q filed by Berkshire Hathaway for the quarter ended 2026-09-30 reports cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments below 365.5 billion dollars, continuing the Q2 decline.
KKR-20260726-16lmstudio/auto2026-07-262026-11-1525%economics/marketsThe European Central Bank announces a 0.5 percentage point interest rate hike on or before 2026-11-15, citing inflation concerns.
KKR-20260906-69manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-062026-11-1516%politicalBetween 2026-09-13 and 2026-11-13, the governments of Ukraine and Russia will both publicly confirm a mutual ceasefire or comprehensive halt to hostilities in the Russia-Ukraine war, following the Witkoff-Kushner shuttle diplomacy in Kyiv.
KKR-20260906-70manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-062026-11-1528%politicalBetween 2026-09-13 and 2026-11-13, the UK Electoral Commission will confirm it has opened a formal investigation into Reform UK over the overseas donations reporting Nigel Farage acknowledged looked damaging on 2026-09-06.
KKR-20260906-95control/baserate2026-09-062026-11-1535%politicalBetween 2026-09-13 and 2026-11-13, the governments of Ukraine and Russia will both publicly confirm a mutual ceasefire or comprehensive halt to hostilities in the Russia-Ukraine war, following the Witkoff-Kushner shuttle diplomacy in Kyiv.
KKR-20260906-96control/baserate2026-09-062026-11-1535%politicalBetween 2026-09-13 and 2026-11-13, the UK Electoral Commission will confirm it has opened a formal investigation into Reform UK over the overseas donations reporting Nigel Farage acknowledged looked damaging on 2026-09-06.
KKR-20260831-13manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-312026-11-1632%economicThe Federal Register will publish a rule or notice modifying Section 232 steel or aluminum tariff treatment specifically naming Canada, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-13.
KKR-20260831-14manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-312026-11-1625%economicThe US Treasury OFAC recent-actions list will show a new or amended Venezuela general or specific license implementing the 65 billion barrel oil deal announced in late August 2026, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-13.
KKR-20260831-22control/baserate2026-08-312026-11-1625%economicThe Federal Register will publish a rule or notice modifying Section 232 steel or aluminum tariff treatment specifically naming Canada, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-13.
KKR-20260831-23control/baserate2026-08-312026-11-1625%economicThe US Treasury OFAC recent-actions list will show a new or amended Venezuela general or specific license implementing the 65 billion barrel oil deal announced in late August 2026, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-13.
KKR-20260907-14manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-072026-11-1630%politicalFollowing the resignation of the senior AI policy adviser to the UK government over an Anthropic conflict of interest, reported 2026-09-07, the UK government will publicly name a permanent successor to that role between 2026-09-14 and 2026-11-13.
KKR-20260907-18manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-072026-11-1618%military/conflictFollowing reports of Israel-Hezbollah clashes killing 11 and Israeli strikes on a southern Lebanese village killing 12, a formally announced ceasefire or truce covering Israel-Hezbollah hostilities in southern Lebanon will take effect between 2026-09-14 and 2026-11-13.
KKR-20260907-42control/baserate2026-09-072026-11-1635%politicalFollowing the resignation of the senior AI policy adviser to the UK government over an Anthropic conflict of interest, reported 2026-09-07, the UK government will publicly name a permanent successor to that role between 2026-09-14 and 2026-11-13.
KKR-20260907-46control/baserate2026-09-072026-11-1649%military/conflictFollowing reports of Israel-Hezbollah clashes killing 11 and Israeli strikes on a southern Lebanese village killing 12, a formally announced ceasefire or truce covering Israel-Hezbollah hostilities in southern Lebanon will take effect between 2026-09-14 and 2026-11-13.
KKR-20260815-05manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-152026-11-1740%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog adds at least one VMware vCenter Server entry, listed under vendorProject VMware or Broadcom, with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-17 and 2026-11-13.
KKR-20260815-11control/baserate2026-08-152026-11-1733%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog adds at least one VMware vCenter Server entry, listed under vendorProject VMware or Broadcom, with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-17 and 2026-11-13.
KKR-20260817-44manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-172026-11-1717%disasterThe World Health Organization declares the Democratic Republic of the Congo Ebola outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern between 2026-08-17 and 2026-11-14.
KKR-20260817-52control/baserate2026-08-172026-11-1733%disasterThe World Health Organization declares the Democratic Republic of the Congo Ebola outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern between 2026-08-17 and 2026-11-14.
KKR-20260819-23manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-192026-11-1715%crime_securityBetween 2026-08-19 and 2026-11-15, German federal prosecutors file a formal indictment against the Ukrainian national arrested in Croatia over the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline bombings.
KKR-20260819-44control/baserate2026-08-192026-11-1731%crime_securityBetween 2026-08-19 and 2026-11-15, German federal prosecutors file a formal indictment against the Ukrainian national arrested in Croatia over the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline bombings.
KKR-20260822-03manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-222026-11-1745%crime/securityJury selection in United States v. Jeffries et al. (E.D.N.Y., Central Islip, Judge Nusrat Choudhury), set for late October after the 2026-08-20 competency ruling, begins on a date between 2026-10-01 and 2026-11-13.
KKR-20260827-12manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-272026-11-1728%military/conflictThe United States and Iran will hold a formal, publicly confirmed round of nuclear talks, direct or via an intermediary, following the 2026-08-26 report that Trump said he was not in a hurry for Iran to return to talks, between 2026-09-05 and 2026-11-15.
KKR-20260827-44control/baserate2026-08-272026-11-1750%military/conflictThe United States and Iran will hold a formal, publicly confirmed round of nuclear talks, direct or via an intermediary, following the 2026-08-26 report that Trump said he was not in a hurry for Iran to return to talks, between 2026-09-05 and 2026-11-15.
KKR-20260908-53manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-082026-11-1722%economicThe United States and Canada announce removal or suspension of at least one tranche of the reciprocal tariffs now in force, announced between 2026-09-09 and 2026-11-13.
KKR-20260908-57manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-082026-11-1730%military_conflictA ceasefire or cessation of hostilities involving Iran and the United States or Israel is publicly announced between 2026-09-09 and 2026-11-13.
KKR-20260908-60control/baserate2026-09-082026-11-1721%economicThe United States and Canada announce removal or suspension of at least one tranche of the reciprocal tariffs now in force, announced between 2026-09-09 and 2026-11-13.
KKR-20260908-64control/baserate2026-09-082026-11-1749%military_conflictA ceasefire or cessation of hostilities involving Iran and the United States or Israel is publicly announced between 2026-09-09 and 2026-11-13.
KKR-20260811-34manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-112026-11-1820%politicalHungarian President Baka, elected as an Orban critic per items 122, 124, and 125, will decline to sign or will refer to the Constitutional Court a government-backed bill, between 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-16.
KKR-20260811-60control/baserate2026-08-112026-11-1833%politicalHungarian President Baka, elected as an Orban critic per items 122, 124, and 125, will decline to sign or will refer to the Constitutional Court a government-backed bill, between 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-16.
KKR-20260811-23manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-112026-11-2080%economicsThe New York Fed Household Debt and Credit Report for Q3 2026 reports aggregate credit card balances above 1.26 trillion US dollars.
KKR-20260811-49control/baserate2026-08-112026-11-2018%economicsThe New York Fed Household Debt and Credit Report for Q3 2026 reports aggregate credit card balances above 1.26 trillion US dollars.
KKR-20260820-24manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-202026-11-2445%cyberCISA adds at least one Citrix NetScaler ADC or NetScaler Gateway CVE to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog, with a date-added value between 2026-08-21 and 2026-11-20.
KKR-20260829-78manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-292026-11-2458%politicalThe UK government announces activation of Operation Safeguard or a new prison early release measure between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-20.
KKR-20260906-25manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-062026-11-2455%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog carries an entry for CVE-2026-19490, the Citrix NetScaler authentication bypass, added between 2026-09-06 and 2026-11-20.
KKR-20260906-52control/baserate2026-09-062026-11-2430%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog carries an entry for CVE-2026-19490, the Citrix NetScaler authentication bypass, added between 2026-09-06 and 2026-11-20.
KKR-20260906-89manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-062026-11-2418%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog adds an entry naming VMware Workstation or VMware Fusion with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-07 and 2026-11-20.
KKR-20260906-115control/baserate2026-09-062026-11-2430%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog adds an entry naming VMware Workstation or VMware Fusion with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-07 and 2026-11-20.
KKR-20260802-07lmstudio/auto2026-08-022026-11-2540%politicalOn 2026-11-25, a political scandal involving a U.S. federal official will lead to a formal investigation by Congress, confirmed by a major news outlet.
KKR-20260727-25manual/fable2026-07-272026-11-3052%disaster/infrastructureThe European Forest Fire Information System will record more than 400000 hectares burned in Spain for calendar year 2026, as published on or before 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260727-32manual/opus-52026-07-272026-11-3030%politicalThe German federal government formally introduces draft legislation tightening extremism or hate-crime law in the Bundestag between 2026-07-28 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260728-08manual/opus-52026-07-282026-11-3088%politicalThe Federal Communications Commission takes no formal action to revoke or deny renewal of an ABC-affiliated broadcast license on or before 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260728-10manual/opus-52026-07-282026-11-3040%disaster/infrastructureEFFIS reports more than 100,000 hectares burned in France for calendar year 2026, as published on or before 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260730-14manual/opus-52026-07-302026-11-3030%economicThe Nasdaq Composite closes below 22,485 on at least one trading day between 2026-08-06 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260730-16manual/opus-52026-07-302026-11-308%economicAll commercial shipping transits of the Strait of Hormuz halt for at least 72 consecutive hours between 2026-08-06 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260731-03manual/fable-52026-07-312026-11-3020%economicKalshi publicly announces suspension or geographic restriction of its prediction market services for New York users between 2026-08-07 and 2026-11-30 following the New York lawsuit
KKR-20260731-25manual/opus-52026-07-312026-11-3040%cyberA US congressional committee, member of Congress, or federal agency publicly issues a letter, inquiry, or hearing notice addressed to Anthropic regarding the reported autonomous breach of three organizations between 2026-08-07 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260731-29manual/opus-52026-07-312026-11-3028%crime_securityThe mayor of St Paul, Minnesota resigns, is removed from office, or announces she will not seek re-election between 2026-08-07 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260801-10manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-012026-11-3055%cyberCISA publishes an advisory or alert confirming a cyber incident that disrupted operations at a named US water or wastewater utility, between 2026-08-08 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260801-11manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-012026-11-3058%disasterINGV records an earthquake of magnitude 4.0 or greater within 30 km of Naples between 2026-08-08 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260801-12manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-012026-11-3040%crime/securitySpanish or Moroccan authorities announce criminal charges against ten or more people over the Ceuta mass border crossing between 2026-08-08 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260822-06manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-222026-11-3085%disasterThe NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion issued in November 2026 states that El Nino conditions are present.
KKR-20260806-13manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-062026-12-0155%politicalAbdul El-Sayed wins the Michigan US Senate general election held 2026-11-03.
KKR-20260806-28control/baserate2026-08-062026-12-0131%politicalAbdul El-Sayed wins the Michigan US Senate general election held 2026-11-03.
KKR-20260829-40manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-292026-12-0145%economics/marketsICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above 95.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-27.
KKR-20260829-59control/baserate2026-08-292026-12-0125%economics/marketsICE Brent crude front-month futures settle at or above 95.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-27.
KKR-20260831-86manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-312026-12-0170%politicalDemocratic candidates win at least 218 seats in the United States House of Representatives in the general election held 2026-11-03.
KKR-20260831-91control/baserate2026-08-312026-12-0144%politicalDemocratic candidates win at least 218 seats in the United States House of Representatives in the general election held 2026-11-03.
KKR-20260807-07manual/fable-52026-08-072026-12-0210%cyberA vulnerability in Claude Code or Gemini CLI disclosed in early August 2026 is added to the CISA KEV catalog with a dateAdded between 2026-08-08 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260810-17manual/opus-52026-08-102026-12-0245%economics/marketsNYMEX front-month WTI crude settles at or below 72.00 dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-11 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260810-33control/baserate2026-08-102026-12-0218%economics/marketsNYMEX front-month WTI crude settles at or below 72.00 dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-11 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260812-10manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-122026-12-0215%politicalThe government of Iraq announces a signed agreement or decree providing for disarmament or integration of Iran-aligned militia groups between 2026-08-13 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260812-27control/baserate2026-08-122026-12-0233%politicalThe government of Iraq announces a signed agreement or decree providing for disarmament or integration of Iran-aligned militia groups between 2026-08-13 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260815-02manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-152026-12-0220%disasterThe WHO Director-General declares the Democratic Republic of the Congo Ebola outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern between 2026-08-15 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260815-04control/baserate2026-08-152026-12-0233%disasterThe WHO Director-General declares the Democratic Republic of the Congo Ebola outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern between 2026-08-15 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260815-19manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-152026-12-0210%military_conflictThe government of Russia publishes a decree ordering a new mandatory, non-contract mobilization wave of reservists, distinct from routine conscription and from the September 2022 partial mobilization, between 2026-08-21 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260815-22control/baserate2026-08-152026-12-0233%military_conflictThe government of Russia publishes a decree ordering a new mandatory, non-contract mobilization wave of reservists, distinct from routine conscription and from the September 2022 partial mobilization, between 2026-08-21 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260817-56manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-172026-12-0218%military/conflictBetween 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-30 United States ground forces conduct combat operations inside the internationally recognized territory of Iran.
KKR-20260817-57manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-172026-12-0240%economics/marketsThe US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield published in FRED series DGS10 is at or above 5.00 percent for at least one business day between 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260817-59manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-172026-12-0225%disasterBetween 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-30 the WHO Director-General declares the Democratic Republic of the Congo Ebola outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.
KKR-20260817-64control/baserate2026-08-172026-12-0250%military/conflictBetween 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-30 United States ground forces conduct combat operations inside the internationally recognized territory of Iran.
KKR-20260817-65control/baserate2026-08-172026-12-0225%economics/marketsThe US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield published in FRED series DGS10 is at or above 5.00 percent for at least one business day between 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260817-67control/baserate2026-08-172026-12-0233%disasterBetween 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-30 the WHO Director-General declares the Democratic Republic of the Congo Ebola outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.
KKR-20260818-13manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-182026-12-0280%crime/securityA jury verdict is returned or a mistrial is declared between 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-30 in the Nevada trial over the 1996 killing of Tupac Shakur.
KKR-20260818-29control/baserate2026-08-182026-12-0231%crime/securityA jury verdict is returned or a mistrial is declared between 2026-08-18 and 2026-11-30 in the Nevada trial over the 1996 killing of Tupac Shakur.
KKR-20260819-10manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-192026-12-0230%politicalVoting in Palestinian national legislative or presidential elections takes place on at least one day between 2026-11-01 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260819-14manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-192026-12-0292%cyberCISA adds at least one Microsoft vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a date-added value in the window 2026-08-26 to 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260819-31control/baserate2026-08-192026-12-0229%politicalVoting in Palestinian national legislative or presidential elections takes place on at least one day between 2026-11-01 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260819-35control/baserate2026-08-192026-12-0223%cyberCISA adds at least one Microsoft vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a date-added value in the window 2026-08-26 to 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260825-08manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-252026-12-0220%military/conflictBetween 2026-08-26 and 2026-11-30, a Russian presidential decree ordering a new general or partial mobilization of citizens into the armed forces is published on the official legal portal publication.pravo.gov.ru.
KKR-20260825-18manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-252026-12-0245%economicThe LBMA Gold Price PM auction fixes at or above 5000.00 dollars per troy ounce on at least one business day between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260827-45control/baserate2026-08-272026-12-0250%military/conflictBetween 2026-08-26 and 2026-11-30, a Russian presidential decree ordering a new general or partial mobilization of citizens into the armed forces is published on the official legal portal publication.pravo.gov.ru.
KKR-20260827-49control/baserate2026-08-272026-12-0225%economicThe LBMA Gold Price PM auction fixes at or above 5000.00 dollars per troy ounce on at least one business day between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260829-11manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-292026-12-0240%military/conflictThe United States and Iran convene at least one publicly acknowledged round of direct or mediated negotiations between 2026-08-29 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260829-24control/baserate2026-08-292026-12-0253%military/conflictThe United States and Iran convene at least one publicly acknowledged round of direct or mediated negotiations between 2026-08-29 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260829-44manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-292026-12-0225%cyberMcKesson will file a document on SEC EDGAR, such as a Form 8-K/A or 10-Q, between 2026-09-05 and 2026-11-30 that states a specific number or bounded range of individuals affected by its August 2026 data theft incident.
KKR-20260829-63control/baserate2026-08-292026-12-0233%cyberMcKesson will file a document on SEC EDGAR, such as a Form 8-K/A or 10-Q, between 2026-09-05 and 2026-11-30 that states a specific number or bounded range of individuals affected by its August 2026 data theft incident.
KKR-20260831-87manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-312026-12-0250%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry with vendorProject Cisco and a dateAdded value between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260831-92control/baserate2026-08-312026-12-0233%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry with vendorProject Cisco and a dateAdded value between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260902-52manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-022026-12-0248%economicThe US Treasury 10-year constant maturity par yield closes at or above 5.15 percent on at least one business day between 2026-09-03 and 2026-11-30. Reference: 4.80 percent on 2026-09-02.
KKR-20260902-71control/baserate2026-09-022026-12-0221%economicThe US Treasury 10-year constant maturity par yield closes at or above 5.15 percent on at least one business day between 2026-09-03 and 2026-11-30. Reference: 4.80 percent on 2026-09-02.
KKR-20260904-23manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-042026-12-0218%cyberCISA adds CVE-2026-20212, the Cisco Nexus 9000 Silicon One unauthenticated root RCE disclosed 2026-09-02 with no known exploitation at seal, to the KEV catalog with a dateAdded between 2026-09-04 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260904-53control/baserate2026-09-042026-12-0230%cyberCISA adds CVE-2026-20212, the Cisco Nexus 9000 Silicon One unauthenticated root RCE disclosed 2026-09-02 with no known exploitation at seal, to the KEV catalog with a dateAdded between 2026-09-04 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260907-34manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-072026-12-0232%economics/marketsICE Brent front-month futures settle at or above 110.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-14 and 2026-11-27. Reference: 96.28 on the packet date, 2026-09-07.
KKR-20260907-62control/baserate2026-09-072026-12-0221%economics/marketsICE Brent front-month futures settle at or above 110.00 US dollars per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-14 and 2026-11-27. Reference: 96.28 on the packet date, 2026-09-07.
KKR-20260811-11manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-112026-12-0325%politicalThe United States and Iran jointly announce a signed ceasefire or framework agreement between 2026-08-12 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260811-20manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-112026-12-0332%military_conflictThe US Treasury designates at least one person or entity for facilitating North Korean arms or missile transfers to Russia, with the action dated between 2026-08-12 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260811-37control/baserate2026-08-112026-12-0333%politicalThe United States and Iran jointly announce a signed ceasefire or framework agreement between 2026-08-12 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260811-46control/baserate2026-08-112026-12-0333%military_conflictThe US Treasury designates at least one person or entity for facilitating North Korean arms or missile transfers to Russia, with the action dated between 2026-08-12 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260822-07manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-222026-12-0322%economicsICE Brent front-month futures settle at or above USD 110.00 per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-08-24 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260825-19manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-252026-12-0345%economicThe US Federal Register publishes a presidential document imposing or raising tariffs on Canadian-origin goods, with a publication date between 2026-08-26 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260825-20manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-252026-12-0365%politicalOFAC adds at least one entity with a listed address in mainland China or Hong Kong to the SDN list under an Iran-related program between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260827-50control/baserate2026-08-272026-12-0325%economicThe US Federal Register publishes a presidential document imposing or raising tariffs on Canadian-origin goods, with a publication date between 2026-08-26 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260827-51control/baserate2026-08-272026-12-0329%politicalOFAC adds at least one entity with a listed address in mainland China or Hong Kong to the SDN list under an Iran-related program between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260827-119manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-272026-12-0313%economics_marketsThe reported 12.9 billion dollar Nvidia acquisition of Hugging Face is confirmed closed, meaning the transaction has legally completed, between 2026-09-03 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260829-20manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-292026-12-0335%politicalThe United States and Iran hold direct, publicly acknowledged government-to-government talks between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260829-22manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-292026-12-0344%crime_securityAustrian authorities announce at least one arrest in the Vienna museum theft of the 673-diamond necklace between 2026-08-29 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260829-33control/baserate2026-08-292026-12-0344%politicalThe United States and Iran hold direct, publicly acknowledged government-to-government talks between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260829-35control/baserate2026-08-292026-12-0343%crime_securityAustrian authorities announce at least one arrest in the Vienna museum theft of the 673-diamond necklace between 2026-08-29 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260829-37manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-292026-12-0330%politicalBetween 2026-08-30 and 2026-11-30, the US and Iranian governments both publicly confirm a specific round of direct or mediated negotiations, with venue or date named.
KKR-20260829-41manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-292026-12-0355%politicalBetween 2026-08-29 and 2026-11-30, Treasury OFAC publishes a new or amended Venezuela general license authorizing petroleum-sector transactions.
KKR-20260829-51manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-292026-12-0322%economicsFront-month ICE Brent crude settles at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260829-56control/baserate2026-08-292026-12-0344%politicalBetween 2026-08-30 and 2026-11-30, the US and Iranian governments both publicly confirm a specific round of direct or mediated negotiations, with venue or date named.
KKR-20260829-60control/baserate2026-08-292026-12-0344%politicalBetween 2026-08-29 and 2026-11-30, Treasury OFAC publishes a new or amended Venezuela general license authorizing petroleum-sector transactions.
KKR-20260829-70control/baserate2026-08-292026-12-0325%economicsFront-month ICE Brent crude settles at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260903-43manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-032026-12-0318%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry whose vendor or product field names CrowdStrike, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-04 and 2026-11-30 inclusive.
KKR-20260903-74control/baserate2026-09-032026-12-0330%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry whose vendor or product field names CrowdStrike, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-04 and 2026-11-30 inclusive.
KKR-20260908-30manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-082026-12-0350%crime_securityBetween 2026-09-09 and 2026-11-30, French authorities announce at least one arrest or criminal charge of a suspect in the theft of Renoir paintings from the Musee Renoir in Cagnes-sur-Mer reported on 2026-09-08.
KKR-20260908-35control/baserate2026-09-082026-12-0336%crime_securityBetween 2026-09-09 and 2026-11-30, French authorities announce at least one arrest or criminal charge of a suspect in the theft of Renoir paintings from the Musee Renoir in Cagnes-sur-Mer reported on 2026-09-08.
KKR-20260806-03manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-062026-12-0435%military_conflictUKMTO issues an incident advisory, or CENTCOM issues a statement, reporting an attack on or seizure of a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman between 2026-08-06 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260806-06manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-062026-12-0455%politicalThe House Committee on Ethics publishes a statement or report on ethics.house.gov naming Representative Max Miller, dated between 2026-08-06 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260806-18control/baserate2026-08-062026-12-0431%military_conflictUKMTO issues an incident advisory, or CENTCOM issues a statement, reporting an attack on or seizure of a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman between 2026-08-06 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260806-21control/baserate2026-08-062026-12-0431%politicalThe House Committee on Ethics publishes a statement or report on ethics.house.gov naming Representative Max Miller, dated between 2026-08-06 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260807-10manual/opus-52026-08-072026-12-0418%cyberLevi Strauss and Co files a Form 8-K disclosing a material cybersecurity incident under Item 1.05 between 2026-08-08 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260807-13manual/opus-52026-08-072026-12-0438%military_conflictThe Colombian government publicly announces suspension or termination of peace negotiations with the ELN between 2026-08-08 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260811-24manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-112026-12-0435%crime_securityThailand adopts a cabinet resolution or statutory amendment permanently tightening civilian firearm permit rules, adopted between 2026-08-12 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260811-50control/baserate2026-08-112026-12-0433%crime_securityThailand adopts a cabinet resolution or statutory amendment permanently tightening civilian firearm permit rules, adopted between 2026-08-12 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260815-10manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-152026-12-0430%crime_securityLuigi Mangione enters a guilty plea to at least one count in the New York state prosecution between 2026-08-17 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260815-16control/baserate2026-08-152026-12-0433%crime_securityLuigi Mangione enters a guilty plea to at least one count in the New York state prosecution between 2026-08-17 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260819-17manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-192026-12-0418%military/conflictIran publicly agrees to permit unrestricted commercial transit of the Strait of Hormuz under an agreement announced in the window 2026-08-26 to 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260819-19manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-192026-12-0452%politicalNABU or SAPO issues a formal notice of suspicion to a serving or former official of the Ukrainian Office of the President in the window 2026-08-26 to 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260819-38control/baserate2026-08-192026-12-0450%military/conflictIran publicly agrees to permit unrestricted commercial transit of the Strait of Hormuz under an agreement announced in the window 2026-08-26 to 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260819-40control/baserate2026-08-192026-12-0429%politicalNABU or SAPO issues a formal notice of suspicion to a serving or former official of the Ukrainian Office of the President in the window 2026-08-26 to 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260822-08manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-222026-12-0450%economicsA document published in the Federal Register between 2026-08-24 and 2026-11-30 sets or amends a tariff-rate quota, duty rate or import allocation for beef entering the United States.
KKR-20260822-18manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-222026-12-0418%cyberCISA adds at least one vulnerability whose vendorProject field is Siemens to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-21 and 2026-11-27.
KKR-20260822-34manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-222026-12-0480%politicalDemocrats win a majority of the US House of Representatives in the 2026-11-03 midterm election, with the Associated Press calling control of the chamber for Democrats by 2026-12-01.
KKR-20260827-14manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-272026-12-0435%military_conflictUnited States and Iranian officials hold a direct negotiating session, in person or by video link, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260827-18manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-272026-12-0438%crime_securityThe Bureau of Industry and Security adds a party to the Entity List over diversion of advanced computing items or AI servers to China, published in the Federal Register between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260827-30control/baserate2026-08-272026-12-0450%military_conflictUnited States and Iranian officials hold a direct negotiating session, in person or by video link, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260827-34control/baserate2026-08-272026-12-0431%crime_securityThe Bureau of Industry and Security adds a party to the Entity List over diversion of advanced computing items or AI servers to China, published in the Federal Register between 2026-09-01 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260827-89manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-272026-12-0440%crime/securitySpanish authorities will detain at least one person in connection with the theft of the Treasure of Villena, with the detention occurring between 2026-08-27 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260827-112control/baserate2026-08-272026-12-0443%crime/securitySpanish authorities will detain at least one person in connection with the theft of the Treasure of Villena, with the detention occurring between 2026-08-27 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260831-41manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-312026-12-0430%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry for a WordPress plugin or theme vulnerability with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-31 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260831-44manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-312026-12-0415%politicalBetween 2026-08-31 and 2026-11-30, the head of state of Niger is removed, replaced, or announces resignation, or a new military takeover of the government is completed.
KKR-20260831-45manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-312026-12-0435%military/conflictBetween 2026-08-31 and 2026-11-30, a commercial vessel transiting or anchored in the Strait of Hormuz or its approaches is struck by weapons fire or seized.
KKR-20260831-47control/baserate2026-08-312026-12-0433%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry for a WordPress plugin or theme vulnerability with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-31 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260831-50control/baserate2026-08-312026-12-0444%politicalBetween 2026-08-31 and 2026-11-30, the head of state of Niger is removed, replaced, or announces resignation, or a new military takeover of the government is completed.
KKR-20260831-51control/baserate2026-08-312026-12-0453%military/conflictBetween 2026-08-31 and 2026-11-30, a commercial vessel transiting or anchored in the Strait of Hormuz or its approaches is struck by weapons fire or seized.
KKR-20260902-12manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-022026-12-0425%politicalDonald Trump and Vladimir Putin hold an in-person meeting on a date between 2026-09-08 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260902-33control/baserate2026-09-022026-12-0444%politicalDonald Trump and Vladimir Putin hold an in-person meeting on a date between 2026-09-08 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260906-23manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-062026-12-0414%military_conflictRussia and Ukraine jointly announce a ceasefire covering the entire line of contact, taking effect between 2026-09-06 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260906-50control/baserate2026-09-062026-12-0449%military_conflictRussia and Ukraine jointly announce a ceasefire covering the entire line of contact, taking effect between 2026-09-06 and 2026-11-30.
KKR-20260907-13manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-072026-12-0412%politicalFollowing the AfD first-place finish in the 6 September 2026 Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election reported in the packet, the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag will elect an AfD-nominated Minister-President in a floor vote between 2026-09-14 and 2026-12-01.
KKR-20260907-30manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-072026-12-0460%politicalDemocratic candidates win a majority of seats in the United States House of Representatives in the elections held 2026-11-03.
KKR-20260907-41control/baserate2026-09-072026-12-0435%politicalFollowing the AfD first-place finish in the 6 September 2026 Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election reported in the packet, the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag will elect an AfD-nominated Minister-President in a floor vote between 2026-09-14 and 2026-12-01.
KKR-20260907-58control/baserate2026-09-072026-12-0435%politicalDemocratic candidates win a majority of seats in the United States House of Representatives in the elections held 2026-11-03.
KKR-20260802-08lmstudio/auto2026-08-022026-12-0735%military/conflictBetween 2026-12-05 and 2026-12-07, a new military offensive will begin in the Gaza City area, confirmed by at least two independent sources from hostile sides (IL, PS) with no casualties reported.
KKR-20260831-31manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-312026-12-0733%economics/marketsThe US Treasury daily par yield curve records a 10-year constant maturity yield of 5.00 percent or higher on at least one business day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-04.
KKR-20260831-38control/baserate2026-08-312026-12-0725%economics/marketsThe US Treasury daily par yield curve records a 10-year constant maturity yield of 5.00 percent or higher on at least one business day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-04.
KKR-20260906-05manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-09-062026-12-0768%crime_securityProsecutors formally move to retry Lindsay Clancy, or a court schedules a retrial date, following the mistrial declared per the 2026-09-04 and 2026-09-05 reporting, at any point between 2026-09-06 and 2026-12-05.
KKR-20260906-32control/baserate2026-09-062026-12-0736%crime_securityProsecutors formally move to retry Lindsay Clancy, or a court schedules a retrial date, following the mistrial declared per the 2026-09-04 and 2026-09-05 reporting, at any point between 2026-09-06 and 2026-12-05.
KKR-20260729-05lmstudio/auto2026-07-292026-12-0820%military/conflictBetween 2026-12-01 and 2026-12-08, Iran launches a missile or drone attack on a U.S. military base in the Middle East.
KKR-20260811-15manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-112026-12-0830%cyberCISA publishes a new cybersecurity advisory, distinct from any existing on 2026-08-11, that names Gunra ransomware, with publication date between 2026-08-12 and 2026-12-04.
KKR-20260811-41control/baserate2026-08-112026-12-0833%cyberCISA publishes a new cybersecurity advisory, distinct from any existing on 2026-08-11, that names Gunra ransomware, with publication date between 2026-08-12 and 2026-12-04.
KKR-20260903-44manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-032026-12-0830%disasterBetween 2026-09-04 and 2026-12-04, the USGS earthquake catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater with an epicenter within 300 km of USGS event us7000tdvt, the 2026-09-03 M6.3 near Nikolski, Alaska.
KKR-20260903-75control/baserate2026-09-032026-12-0836%disasterBetween 2026-09-04 and 2026-12-04, the USGS earthquake catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater with an epicenter within 300 km of USGS event us7000tdvt, the 2026-09-03 M6.3 near Nikolski, Alaska.
KKR-20260906-18manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-062026-12-0850%crime/securityThe Plymouth County District Attorney announces the office will retry Lindsay Clancy, or a retrial date is entered on the court docket, between 2026-09-06 and 2026-12-04.
KKR-20260906-20manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-062026-12-0812%politicalThe governments of Russia and Ukraine both announce a signed general ceasefire agreement between 2026-09-06 and 2026-12-04.
KKR-20260906-45control/baserate2026-09-062026-12-0836%crime/securityThe Plymouth County District Attorney announces the office will retry Lindsay Clancy, or a retrial date is entered on the court docket, between 2026-09-06 and 2026-12-04.
KKR-20260906-47control/baserate2026-09-062026-12-0835%politicalThe governments of Russia and Ukraine both announce a signed general ceasefire agreement between 2026-09-06 and 2026-12-04.
KKR-20260907-36manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-072026-12-0825%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog adds at least one vulnerability with vendorProject MikroTik, carrying a dateAdded value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-04.
KKR-20260907-64control/baserate2026-09-072026-12-0830%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog adds at least one vulnerability with vendorProject MikroTik, carrying a dateAdded value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-04.
KKR-20260831-28manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-312026-12-0912%military/conflictThe individual serving as head of state of Niger on 2026-09-07 ceases to hold that office at some point between 2026-09-07 and 2026-12-06.
KKR-20260831-35control/baserate2026-08-312026-12-0953%military/conflictThe individual serving as head of state of Niger on 2026-09-07 ceases to hold that office at some point between 2026-09-07 and 2026-12-06.
KKR-20260903-46manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-032026-12-0912%military_conflictBetween 2026-09-04 and 2026-12-04, commercial transit of the Strait of Hormuz halts for at least 72 consecutive hours.
KKR-20260903-77control/baserate2026-09-032026-12-0949%military_conflictBetween 2026-09-04 and 2026-12-04, commercial transit of the Strait of Hormuz halts for at least 72 consecutive hours.
KKR-20260908-37manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-082026-12-1125%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry for the SAP kernel vulnerability publicly designated OVERPASS, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-08.
KKR-20260908-40manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-082026-12-1130%military/conflictA ceasefire or cessation of hostilities covering the current United States and Iran conflict is publicly announced between 2026-09-09 and 2026-12-08 and confirmed by named officials of both governments.
KKR-20260908-45control/baserate2026-09-082026-12-1130%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry for the SAP kernel vulnerability publicly designated OVERPASS, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-08.
KKR-20260908-48control/baserate2026-09-082026-12-1149%military/conflictA ceasefire or cessation of hostilities covering the current United States and Iran conflict is publicly announced between 2026-09-09 and 2026-12-08 and confirmed by named officials of both governments.
KKR-20260820-11manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-202026-12-1488%disasterThe NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO diagnostic discussion scheduled for 2026-12-10 carries an active El Nino Advisory status.
KKR-20260722-11manual/fable2026-07-222026-12-1545%politicalAndy Biggs wins the Arizona gubernatorial general election, defeating Katie Hobbs by any margin, with results certified between 2026-11-05 and 2026-12-15
KKR-20260801-20manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-012026-12-1560%disasterA magnitude 4.0 or greater earthquake will strike the Campi Flegrei or greater Naples area of Italy, between 2026-08-08 and 2026-12-15.
KKR-20260819-18manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-192026-12-1533%crime/securityCroatia surrenders to German custody the Ukrainian diver arrested in Pula on 2026-08-19 over the Nord Stream blasts, in the window 2026-08-26 to 2026-12-11.
KKR-20260819-39control/baserate2026-08-192026-12-1531%crime/securityCroatia surrenders to German custody the Ukrainian diver arrested in Pula on 2026-08-19 over the Nord Stream blasts, in the window 2026-08-26 to 2026-12-11.
KKR-20260906-26manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-062026-12-1545%crime_securityThe Plymouth County District Attorney publicly announces that Massachusetts will retry Lindsay Clancy, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-11.
KKR-20260906-53control/baserate2026-09-062026-12-1536%crime_securityThe Plymouth County District Attorney publicly announces that Massachusetts will retry Lindsay Clancy, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-11.
KKR-20260903-52manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-032026-12-1620%politicalBetween 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-11, the House Committee on Oversight approves a resolution recommending that Leon Black be held in contempt of Congress.
KKR-20260903-83control/baserate2026-09-032026-12-1635%politicalBetween 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-11, the House Committee on Oversight approves a resolution recommending that Leon Black be held in contempt of Congress.
KKR-20260906-90manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-062026-12-1612%military_conflictRussia and Ukraine jointly announce a signed general ceasefire or armistice covering the entire line of contact, agreed between 2026-09-07 and 2026-12-11.
KKR-20260906-116control/baserate2026-09-062026-12-1649%military_conflictRussia and Ukraine jointly announce a signed general ceasefire or armistice covering the entire line of contact, agreed between 2026-09-07 and 2026-12-11.
KKR-20260801-08manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-012026-12-1820%politicalGianni Infantino ceases to be FIFA president, by resignation or removal, announced between 2026-08-08 and 2026-12-18.
KKR-20260801-25manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-012026-12-1825%politicalGianni Infantino ceases to hold the FIFA presidency by resignation, removal, or formal suspension between 2026-08-02 and 2026-12-18.
KKR-20260802-05lmstudio/auto2026-08-022026-12-1820%crime/securityOn 2026-12-18, a terrorist attack in Beirut, Lebanon, will result in at least five fatalities, confirmed by at least two independent sources from hostile sides (AXIS, WEST).
KKR-20260806-02manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-062026-12-1835%economicsA filing entered on the US Court of International Trade docket between 2026-08-06 and 2026-12-15 states that cumulative IEEPA tariff refunds issued have reached 150 billion USD or more.
KKR-20260806-17control/baserate2026-08-062026-12-1831%economicsA filing entered on the US Court of International Trade docket between 2026-08-06 and 2026-12-15 states that cumulative IEEPA tariff refunds issued have reached 150 billion USD or more.
KKR-20260811-13manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-112026-12-1885%economics/marketsThe New York Fed Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit covering Q3 2026, published between 2026-11-01 and 2026-12-15, states aggregate credit card balances at or above 1.26 trillion USD.
KKR-20260811-39control/baserate2026-08-112026-12-1818%economics/marketsThe New York Fed Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit covering Q3 2026, published between 2026-11-01 and 2026-12-15, states aggregate credit card balances at or above 1.26 trillion USD.
KKR-20260815-09manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-152026-12-1812%disasterThe World Health Organization declares the Democratic Republic of the Congo Ebola outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern between 2026-08-17 and 2026-12-15.
KKR-20260815-15control/baserate2026-08-152026-12-1833%disasterThe World Health Organization declares the Democratic Republic of the Congo Ebola outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern between 2026-08-17 and 2026-12-15.
KKR-20260820-30manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-202026-12-1812%politicalThe Verkhovna Rada or Ukraine's Central Election Commission adopts an act naming a polling date for a nationwide presidential election, between 2026-08-21 and 2026-12-15.
KKR-20260822-20manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-222026-12-1845%crime_securitySwedish prosecutors file an indictment against at least one suspect over the 2026-08-21 Swedish school sword attack, with the filing occurring between 2026-08-21 and 2026-12-11.
KKR-20260825-17manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-252026-12-1850%cyberThe HHS Office for Civil Rights breach portal posts a hacking or IT incident breach filed by an entity whose name contains Nutex, with a submission date between 2026-08-25 and 2026-12-15.
KKR-20260902-54manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-022026-12-1840%cyberThe HHS Office for Civil Rights breach portal lists an Aesto Health breach affecting 9,500,000 or more individuals, posted between 2026-09-03 and 2026-12-15.
KKR-20260902-73control/baserate2026-09-022026-12-1830%cyberThe HHS Office for Civil Rights breach portal lists an Aesto Health breach affecting 9,500,000 or more individuals, posted between 2026-09-03 and 2026-12-15.
KKR-20260903-53manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-032026-12-1850%disasterThe NOAA CPC Oceanic Nino Index value for the September-October-November 2026 season is at or above plus 2.0 degrees Celsius. Reference: UN and BoM record El Nino forecasts on the packet date.
KKR-20260903-84control/baserate2026-09-032026-12-1836%disasterThe NOAA CPC Oceanic Nino Index value for the September-October-November 2026 season is at or above plus 2.0 degrees Celsius. Reference: UN and BoM record El Nino forecasts on the packet date.
KKR-20260904-38manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-042026-12-1840%military/conflictThe South Korean government announces a naval or military deployment to Strait of Hormuz escort or security operations between 2026-09-07 and 2026-12-15.
KKR-20260904-68control/baserate2026-09-042026-12-1849%military/conflictThe South Korean government announces a naval or military deployment to Strait of Hormuz escort or security operations between 2026-09-07 and 2026-12-15.
KKR-20260827-09manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-272026-12-2022%politicalKemi Badenoch will cease to hold the position of Leader of the Conservative Party, whether by resignation, removal, or the result of a confidence vote, between 2026-08-27 and 2026-12-18.
KKR-20260827-41control/baserate2026-08-272026-12-2029%politicalKemi Badenoch will cease to hold the position of Leader of the Conservative Party, whether by resignation, removal, or the result of a confidence vote, between 2026-08-27 and 2026-12-18.
KKR-20260807-09manual/opus-52026-08-072026-12-2225%politicalThe Russia sanctions bill passed by the Senate on 2026-08-07 becomes public law between 2026-08-08 and 2026-12-18.
KKR-20260810-13manual/fable-52026-08-102026-12-2240%politicalA US House committee or subcommittee holds a hearing between 2026-09-01 and 2026-12-18 at which an OpenAI or Anthropic executive testifies about the reported AI company security breach.
KKR-20260820-13manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-202026-12-2230%politicalCongress.gov records Senate passage of a bill whose short title includes CLARITY Act between 2026-08-21 and 2026-12-18.
KKR-20260902-14manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-022026-12-2260%crime_securityDuane Davis is sentenced in the Eighth Judicial District Court of Clark County, Nevada on a date between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-18.
KKR-20260902-35control/baserate2026-09-022026-12-2243%crime_securityDuane Davis is sentenced in the Eighth Judicial District Court of Clark County, Nevada on a date between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-18.
KKR-20260903-32manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-032026-12-2230%politicalThe US House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform votes to approve a report or resolution recommending that Leon Black be held in contempt of Congress between 2026-09-03 and 2026-12-18.
KKR-20260903-63control/baserate2026-09-032026-12-2235%politicalThe US House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform votes to approve a report or resolution recommending that Leon Black be held in contempt of Congress between 2026-09-03 and 2026-12-18.
KKR-20260907-31manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-072026-12-2285%crime/securityThe Paris court trying the murder of Federico Aramburu delivers a verdict between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-18.
KKR-20260907-59control/baserate2026-09-072026-12-2236%crime/securityThe Paris court trying the murder of Federico Aramburu delivers a verdict between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-18.
KKR-20260907-39manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-072026-12-2315%politicalThe Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt elects an AfD member as Minister-President between 2026-09-14 and 2026-12-18.
KKR-20260907-67control/baserate2026-09-072026-12-2335%politicalThe Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt elects an AfD member as Minister-President between 2026-09-14 and 2026-12-18.
KKR-20260729-08lmstudio/auto2026-07-292026-12-2525%cyberOn or before 2026-12-25, a new U.S. federal law is passed that mandates the use of SBOMs for all software used in critical infrastructure.
KKR-20260726-05manual/fable2026-07-262026-12-3130%military_conflictA NATO member formally requests Article 4 consultations over Russian drone or airspace incursions between 2026-08-02 and 2026-12-31.
FS-20260730-01fogsim/scenario2026-07-302026-12-3155%—In the FogSim sealed campaign for scenario "USA vs RUS - sourced personnel, illustrative" (SIMULATED, seeded from the graded order of battle), the modal outcome across the declared run set is "blue_holds".
KKR-20260731-22manual/opus-52026-07-312026-12-3130%economicThe Federal Open Market Committee announces an increase in the federal funds target range at a scheduled meeting held between 2026-08-07 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260801-14manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-012026-12-3110%military/conflictRussia and Ukraine will sign or jointly announce a ceasefire or peace agreement intended to end large-scale hostilities, effective on or before 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260801-24manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-012026-12-3130%economics/marketsThe 10-year US Treasury constant maturity yield closes at or above 5.00 percent on at least one trading day between 2026-08-03 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260804-20manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-042027-01-0418%economicThe FOMC raises the federal funds target range at a scheduled meeting held between 2026-08-10 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260804-36control/baserate2026-08-042027-01-0425%economicThe FOMC raises the federal funds target range at a scheduled meeting held between 2026-08-10 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260829-12manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-292027-01-0440%cyberCISA adds a ServiceNow vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-29 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260829-25control/baserate2026-08-292027-01-0433%cyberCISA adds a ServiceNow vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-29 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260815-06manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-152027-01-0545%economicsThe FRED series DGS10 records a daily value at or above 5.00 percent on at least one business day between 2026-08-17 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260815-08manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-152027-01-0522%politicalThe UK Electoral Commission publishes a concluded investigation outcome naming Reform UK on its enforcement register between 2026-08-17 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260815-12control/baserate2026-08-152027-01-0518%economicsThe FRED series DGS10 records a daily value at or above 5.00 percent on at least one business day between 2026-08-17 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260815-14control/baserate2026-08-152027-01-0533%politicalThe UK Electoral Commission publishes a concluded investigation outcome naming Reform UK on its enforcement register between 2026-08-17 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260817-03manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-172027-01-0512%military/conflictHouthi (Ansar Allah) forces take control of central Marib city, Yemen, between 2026-08-17 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260817-08control/baserate2026-08-172027-01-0550%military/conflictHouthi (Ansar Allah) forces take control of central Marib city, Yemen, between 2026-08-17 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260819-08manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-192027-01-0540%economics/marketsThe US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield closes at or above 5.00 percent on at least one day between 2026-08-20 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260819-11manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-192027-01-0535%politicalA Federal Register document published between 2026-08-20 and 2026-12-31 imposes a 50 percent tariff on a broad class of Canadian imports.
KKR-20260819-29control/baserate2026-08-192027-01-0525%economics/marketsThe US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield closes at or above 5.00 percent on at least one day between 2026-08-20 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260819-32control/baserate2026-08-192027-01-0529%politicalA Federal Register document published between 2026-08-20 and 2026-12-31 imposes a 50 percent tariff on a broad class of Canadian imports.
KKR-20260820-31manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-202027-01-0530%crime_securityA Chinese court sentences a named former Evergrande Group executive other than Hui Ka Yan to ten years imprisonment or more, between 2026-08-21 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260820-32manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-202027-01-0533%economicThe Digital Asset Market Clarity Act becomes public law, with enactment dated between 2026-08-21 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260822-16manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-222027-01-0545%politicalBetween 2026-08-21 and 2026-12-31, a Hong Kong court sentences Lee Cheuk-yan or Chow Hang-tung in the West Kowloon incitement-to-subversion case, and at least one of the two receives an immediate custodial term of 3 years or longer.
KKR-20260825-21manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-252027-01-0510%military_conflictA Russian presidential decree ordering a new partial or general mobilization is published on pravo.gov.ru with a signature date between 2026-09-01 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260827-52control/baserate2026-08-272027-01-0550%military_conflictA Russian presidential decree ordering a new partial or general mobilization is published on pravo.gov.ru with a signature date between 2026-09-01 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260829-19manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-292027-01-057%military_conflictIran halts commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz for at least 72 consecutive hours at some point between 2026-09-01 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260829-32control/baserate2026-08-292027-01-0553%military_conflictIran halts commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz for at least 72 consecutive hours at some point between 2026-09-01 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260902-01manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-022027-01-058%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-02 and 2026-12-31, a general ceasefire covering the entire front line in Ukraine takes effect, announced by both the Ukrainian and Russian governments.
KKR-20260902-22control/baserate2026-09-022027-01-0553%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-02 and 2026-12-31, a general ceasefire covering the entire front line in Ukraine takes effect, announced by both the Ukrainian and Russian governments.
KKR-20260902-46manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-022027-01-0540%economics/marketsThe US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, FRED series DGS10, records a value at or above 5.00 percent on at least one business day between 2026-09-03 and 2026-12-31. Reference: 4.80 percent on the packet date.
KKR-20260902-65control/baserate2026-09-022027-01-0521%economics/marketsThe US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, FRED series DGS10, records a value at or above 5.00 percent on at least one business day between 2026-09-03 and 2026-12-31. Reference: 4.80 percent on the packet date.
KKR-20260906-84manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-062027-01-0530%economics/marketsThe LBMA Gold Price PM prints at or above 5000.00 USD per troy ounce on at least one business day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-31. Reference: 4476.60 on the packet date.
KKR-20260906-86manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-062027-01-0535%disasterThe USGS earthquake catalog records at least one magnitude 6.0 or greater event within 300 km of the 2026-09-06 M6.3 Nikolski, Alaska epicenter between 2026-09-07 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260906-110control/baserate2026-09-062027-01-0521%economics/marketsThe LBMA Gold Price PM prints at or above 5000.00 USD per troy ounce on at least one business day between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-31. Reference: 4476.60 on the packet date.
KKR-20260906-112control/baserate2026-09-062027-01-0536%disasterThe USGS earthquake catalog records at least one magnitude 6.0 or greater event within 300 km of the 2026-09-06 M6.3 Nikolski, Alaska epicenter between 2026-09-07 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260907-32manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-072027-01-0530%military/conflictThe United States and Iraqi governments both publicly announce completion of the US-led coalition military mission in Iraq between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260907-60control/baserate2026-09-072027-01-0549%military/conflictThe United States and Iraqi governments both publicly announce completion of the US-led coalition military mission in Iraq between 2026-09-08 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260804-29manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-042027-01-0615%economics/marketsThe Federal Reserve will raise its federal funds target range above the level in effect on 2026-08-03, in an FOMC decision announced between 2026-08-10 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260804-45control/baserate2026-08-042027-01-0625%economics/marketsThe Federal Reserve will raise its federal funds target range above the level in effect on 2026-08-03, in an FOMC decision announced between 2026-08-10 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260806-04manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-062027-01-0618%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog carries at least one entry naming Gitea in its vendorProject or product field, with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-06 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260806-19control/baserate2026-08-062027-01-0631%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog carries at least one entry naming Gitea in its vendorProject or product field, with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-06 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260820-28manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-202027-01-0638%economicThe 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield reaches 5.00 percent or higher on at least one business day between 2026-08-21 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260825-23manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-252027-01-0655%crime_securityThe US District Court for the District of Columbia docket in the Lockerbie bombing prosecution carries an order setting a new trial date, entered between 2026-08-26 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260827-54control/baserate2026-08-272027-01-0631%crime_securityThe US District Court for the District of Columbia docket in the Lockerbie bombing prosecution carries an order setting a new trial date, entered between 2026-08-26 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260827-87manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-272027-01-0610%military/conflictThe UK government will attribute to Russia an attack causing physical damage or casualties to UK territory, UK-flagged shipping, or UK armed forces, occurring between 2026-08-28 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260827-110control/baserate2026-08-272027-01-0653%military/conflictThe UK government will attribute to Russia an attack causing physical damage or casualties to UK territory, UK-flagged shipping, or UK armed forces, occurring between 2026-08-28 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260831-42manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-312027-01-0625%economics/marketsThe S&P 500 index records an official daily close below 7000.00 on at least one trading day between 2026-09-01 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260831-48control/baserate2026-08-312027-01-0625%economics/marketsThe S&P 500 index records an official daily close below 7000.00 on at least one trading day between 2026-09-01 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260903-35manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-032027-01-0660%disasterThe NOAA CPC weekly Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly reaches at least +2.0 degrees C for at least one week dated between 2026-09-07 and 2026-12-28.
KKR-20260903-66control/baserate2026-09-032027-01-0636%disasterThe NOAA CPC weekly Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly reaches at least +2.0 degrees C for at least one week dated between 2026-09-07 and 2026-12-28.
KKR-20260807-11manual/opus-52026-08-072027-01-0732%cyberCISA adds at least one WordPress core or WordPress plugin vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a date added between 2026-08-08 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260827-115operator/human2026-08-272027-01-0735%ai-claimsOpenAI publishes a revised Preparedness Framework, described by OpenAI as a revision or new version of the framework that dates largely to December 2023, on openai.com between 2026-08-28 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260827-118control/baserate2026-08-272027-01-0743%ai-claimsOpenAI publishes a revised Preparedness Framework, described by OpenAI as a revision or new version of the framework that dates largely to December 2023, on openai.com between 2026-08-28 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260827-121operator/human2026-08-272027-01-0725%ai-claimsOpenAI publishes a system card or preparedness report for the Astra model on openai.com between 2026-08-28 and 2026-12-31 that names at least one external organization, a government agency or an independent AI safety organization, as having evaluated the Astra model.
KKR-20260827-122control/baserate2026-08-272027-01-0743%ai-claimsOpenAI publishes a system card or preparedness report for the Astra model on openai.com between 2026-08-28 and 2026-12-31 that names at least one external organization, a government agency or an independent AI safety organization, as having evaluated the Astra model.
KKR-20260810-16manual/opus-52026-08-102027-01-0830%cyberLexisNexis Risk Solutions reports a data breach affecting 100000 or more individuals to the Maine Attorney General between 2026-08-11 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260810-32control/baserate2026-08-102027-01-0831%cyberLexisNexis Risk Solutions reports a data breach affecting 100000 or more individuals to the Maine Attorney General between 2026-08-11 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260831-43manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-312027-01-0865%economics/marketsThe Federal Register publishes at least one presidential proclamation or executive order modifying United States tariff treatment of Canadian-origin goods with a publication date between 2026-09-01 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260831-49control/baserate2026-08-312027-01-0825%economics/marketsThe Federal Register publishes at least one presidential proclamation or executive order modifying United States tariff treatment of Canadian-origin goods with a publication date between 2026-09-01 and 2026-12-31.
KKR-20260729-06lmstudio/auto2026-07-292027-01-1035%cyberOn or before 2027-01-10, a major cyberattack on a U.S. state government results in the public exposure of more than 1 million personal records.
KKR-20260908-41manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-082027-01-1215%politicalA presidential document directing federal recognition or renaming of the state of New Mexico as New America is published in the Federal Register between 2026-09-09 and 2027-01-08.
KKR-20260908-49control/baserate2026-09-082027-01-1235%politicalA presidential document directing federal recognition or renaming of the state of New Mexico as New America is published in the Federal Register between 2026-09-09 and 2027-01-08.
KKR-20260726-01manual/fable2026-07-262027-01-1525%economics_marketsBrent crude front-month futures settle above 120.00 USD per barrel on any trading day between 2026-08-02 and 2027-01-15.
KKR-20260726-02manual/fable2026-07-262027-01-1555%economics_marketsThe US 10-year Treasury yield closes above 5.00 percent on any trading day between 2026-08-02 and 2027-01-15.
KKR-20260726-03manual/fable2026-07-262027-01-1540%economics_marketsThe Nasdaq Composite closes below 22478 on any trading day between 2026-08-02 and 2027-01-15.
KKR-20260726-06manual/fable2026-07-262027-01-1518%military_conflictSyria and Israel sign or jointly announce a concluded security agreement between 2026-08-02 and 2027-01-15.
KKR-20260726-07manual/fable2026-07-262027-01-1545%cyberA supply-chain compromise affecting 100 or more packages on npm, PyPI, or a GitHub-hosted registry is publicly disclosed between 2026-08-02 and 2027-01-15.
KKR-20260726-08manual/fable2026-07-262027-01-1535%disasterAn earthquake of magnitude 4.5 or greater occurs within 100 km of Spearman, Texas between 2026-08-02 and 2027-01-15.
KKR-20260726-10manual/fable2026-07-262027-01-1555%politicalThe Democratic Party wins control of the US House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm election, as called by the Associated Press by 2027-01-15.
KKR-20260907-23manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-072027-01-1535%politicalUlrich Siegmund (AfD) is elected Ministerpraesident of Saxony-Anhalt by the Landtag in a ballot held between 2026-09-08 and 2027-01-13.
KKR-20260907-51control/baserate2026-09-072027-01-1535%politicalUlrich Siegmund (AfD) is elected Ministerpraesident of Saxony-Anhalt by the Landtag in a ballot held between 2026-09-08 and 2027-01-13.
KKR-20260827-10manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-272027-01-1715%crime/securityA verdict of guilty or not guilty will be delivered in the Malta criminal trial of Yorgen Fenech for the murder of journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia, between 2026-08-27 and 2027-01-15.
KKR-20260827-42control/baserate2026-08-272027-01-1731%crime/securityA verdict of guilty or not guilty will be delivered in the Malta criminal trial of Yorgen Fenech for the murder of journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia, between 2026-08-27 and 2027-01-15.
KKR-20260807-06manual/fable-52026-08-072027-01-1915%military/conflictHouthi forces take control of Marib city, Yemen, between 2026-08-08 and 2027-01-15.
KKR-20260822-27manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-222027-01-1922%politicalA Labor MP holds office as Premier of Victoria on 2027-01-15, meaning Labor retained government at the 2026-11-28 Victorian state election.
KKR-20260817-14manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-172027-01-2030%politicalFDA publishes a Federal Register document on the FSMA Section 204 food traceability rule - proposed rule, final rule, or request for information - between 2026-08-24 and 2027-01-15.
KKR-20260817-19control/baserate2026-08-172027-01-2029%politicalFDA publishes a Federal Register document on the FSMA Section 204 food traceability rule - proposed rule, final rule, or request for information - between 2026-08-24 and 2027-01-15.
KKR-20260818-18manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-182027-01-2015%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry whose vendorProject field is GitLab, with a dateAdded between 2026-08-19 and 2027-01-15.
KKR-20260818-34control/baserate2026-08-182027-01-2023%cyberThe CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry whose vendorProject field is GitLab, with a dateAdded between 2026-08-19 and 2027-01-15.
KKR-20260822-19manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-222027-01-2265%politicalAt least one Hong Kong Alliance vigil organiser convicted on 2026-08-21 receives an unsuspended custodial sentence handed down between 2026-08-21 and 2027-01-15.
KKR-20260730-07manual/fable-52026-07-302027-01-2670%crime/securityHadi Matar is sentenced on his federal terrorism-related convictions between 2026-07-31 and 2027-01-26.
KKR-20260730-08manual/fable-52026-07-302027-01-2630%politicalThe government of Cameroon officially announces the death or the resignation of President Paul Biya between 2026-07-31 and 2027-01-26.
KKR-20260806-14manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-062027-02-0125%politicalPete Hegseth departs the office of US Secretary of War, via announced resignation or removal, between 2026-08-06 and 2027-01-30.
KKR-20260806-29control/baserate2026-08-062027-02-0131%politicalPete Hegseth departs the office of US Secretary of War, via announced resignation or removal, between 2026-08-06 and 2027-01-30.
KKR-20260831-33manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-312027-02-0225%crime/securityThe Crown Prosecution Service announces a decision to bring criminal charges against at least one former undercover police officer in the undercover policing matter, between 2026-09-07 and 2027-01-29.
KKR-20260831-40control/baserate2026-08-312027-02-0243%crime/securityThe Crown Prosecution Service announces a decision to bring criminal charges against at least one former undercover police officer in the undercover policing matter, between 2026-09-07 and 2027-01-29.
KKR-20260903-49manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-032027-02-0210%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog carries an entry naming CrowdStrike as the vendor with a date-added value between 2026-09-04 and 2027-01-29.
KKR-20260903-80control/baserate2026-09-032027-02-0230%cyberThe CISA KEV catalog carries an entry naming CrowdStrike as the vendor with a date-added value between 2026-09-04 and 2027-01-29.
KKR-20260810-30manual/sonnet-52026-08-102027-02-0342%politicalOfcom will publish a decision, either finding a breach or clearing GB News, regarding the guest remarks on pride and paedophilia referenced in reporting on 2026-08-10, between 2026-10-01 and 2027-01-31.
KKR-20260811-17manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-112027-02-035%crime/securityRussian authorities transfer Bashar al-Assad to Syrian government custody between 2026-08-12 and 2027-01-31.
KKR-20260811-43control/baserate2026-08-112027-02-0333%crime/securityRussian authorities transfer Bashar al-Assad to Syrian government custody between 2026-08-12 and 2027-01-31.
KKR-20260819-12manual/fable-5/unattested2026-08-192027-02-0350%crime/securityAt least one of the two Ukrainian nationals arrested in August 2026 over the Nord Stream sabotage enters German custody between 2026-08-20 and 2027-01-31.
KKR-20260819-33control/baserate2026-08-192027-02-0331%crime/securityAt least one of the two Ukrainian nationals arrested in August 2026 over the Nord Stream sabotage enters German custody between 2026-08-20 and 2027-01-31.
KKR-20260822-35manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-222027-02-0320%military_conflictBetween 2026-08-24 and 2027-01-31, Israel or the United States will conduct a direct military strike on internationally recognized Iranian territory, excluding strikes on Iran aligned forces in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, or Yemen.
KKR-20260829-47manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-292027-02-0375%military/conflictMojtaba Khamenei will still publicly hold the title of Supreme Leader of Iran throughout the window from 2026-09-05 to 2027-01-31.
KKR-20260829-66control/baserate2026-08-292027-02-0353%military/conflictMojtaba Khamenei will still publicly hold the title of Supreme Leader of Iran throughout the window from 2026-09-05 to 2027-01-31.
KKR-20260827-81manual/sonnet-5/unattested2026-08-272027-02-0460%crime_securityThe military commission trial date for Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and co-defendants, currently set for June, is reported as vacated, postponed, or otherwise materially altered by a commission ruling, DOD announcement, or appellate court order, between 2026-09-03 and 2027-01-31.
KKR-20260827-104control/baserate2026-08-272027-02-0443%crime_securityThe military commission trial date for Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and co-defendants, currently set for June, is reported as vacated, postponed, or otherwise materially altered by a commission ruling, DOD announcement, or appellate court order, between 2026-09-03 and 2027-01-31.
KKR-20260822-42manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-222027-02-0512%military_conflictA general ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war takes effect between 2026-08-24 and 2027-01-31.
KKR-20260829-52manual/opus-5/unattested2026-08-292027-02-1730%politicalA petition for a writ of certiorari arising from the 2026-08-28 Ninth Circuit prediction-market ruling is docketed at the US Supreme Court between 2026-08-29 and 2027-02-13.
KKR-20260829-71control/baserate2026-08-292027-02-1744%politicalA petition for a writ of certiorari arising from the 2026-08-28 Ninth Circuit prediction-market ruling is docketed at the US Supreme Court between 2026-08-29 and 2027-02-13.
KKR-20260904-40manual/opus-5/unattested2026-09-042027-02-1828%cyberA CVE for the Cisco Nexus 9000 unauthenticated remote code execution flaw enters the CISA KEV catalog with dateAdded between 2026-09-04 and 2027-02-15.
KKR-20260904-70control/baserate2026-09-042027-02-1830%cyberA CVE for the Cisco Nexus 9000 unauthenticated remote code execution flaw enters the CISA KEV catalog with dateAdded between 2026-09-04 and 2027-02-15.
KKR-20260908-11lmstudio/realist2026-09-082027-02-2520%politicalBetween 2026-09-25 and 2026-09-28, the Iranian Foreign Ministry issues a formal statement declaring a new diplomatic initiative to reopen the Strait of Hormuz unconditionally, confirmed by two independent sources (one from AXIS, one from WEST) with identical wording and timestamp.
KKR-20260908-13lmstudio/realist2026-09-082027-02-2640%politicalBetween 2026-09-27 and 2026-09-30, a new wave of political protests erupts in the West Bank, leading to the arrest of at least 150 individuals by Israeli security forces, confirmed by two independent news outlets (one from IL, one from PS) reporting the event with a specific date and number.
KKR-20260908-10lmstudio/realist2026-09-082027-02-2715%disasterBetween 2026-09-24 and 2026-09-27, a major earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher occurs in the Pacific Northwest, confirmed by the USGS Significant Quakes feed with a location within 100 km of Seattle, Washington.
KKR-20260908-09lmstudio/realist2026-09-082027-02-2825%cyberBetween 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-25, a cyberattack exploiting the Adobe Magento zero-day vulnerability (CVE-2026-XXXX) is confirmed to have compromised at least 500 servers in the United States, as documented in the CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value between 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-25.
KKR-20260908-14lmstudio/realist2026-09-082027-02-2822%disasterBetween 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-01, a major wildfire breaks out in the Australian state of Victoria, confirmed by the GDACS Alerts feed with a green alert issued for the region and a reported area burned exceeding 10,000 hectares.
KKR-20260908-42manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-082027-03-0150%crime/securityFrench police or prosecutors publicly announce an arrest, or the recovery of at least one stolen painting, in the Renoir Museum theft of early September 2026, between 2026-09-09 and 2027-02-26.
KKR-20260908-50control/baserate2026-09-082027-03-0136%crime/securityFrench police or prosecutors publicly announce an arrest, or the recovery of at least one stolen painting, in the Renoir Museum theft of early September 2026, between 2026-09-09 and 2027-02-26.
KKR-20260906-19manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-062027-03-0220%crime/securityThe criminal trial of Andrew and Tristan Tate on the Romanian trafficking indictment opens with a first hearing on the merits between 2026-09-06 and 2027-02-26.
KKR-20260906-46control/baserate2026-09-062027-03-0236%crime/securityThe criminal trial of Andrew and Tristan Tate on the Romanian trafficking indictment opens with a first hearing on the merits between 2026-09-06 and 2027-02-26.
KKR-20260907-33manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-072027-03-0212%politicalThe Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt elects a member of the AfD as Minister-President between 2026-09-08 and 2027-02-26.
KKR-20260907-61control/baserate2026-09-072027-03-0235%politicalThe Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt elects a member of the AfD as Minister-President between 2026-09-08 and 2027-02-26.
KKR-20260906-09manual/fable-5.1/unattested2026-09-062027-03-0340%politicalBetween 2026-09-05 and 2027-03-01, the US Fish and Wildlife Service publishes in the Federal Register a proposed rule to delist or downlist the gray wolf or Mexican wolf under the Endangered Species Act.
KKR-20260906-36control/baserate2026-09-062027-03-0335%politicalBetween 2026-09-05 and 2027-03-01, the US Fish and Wildlife Service publishes in the Federal Register a proposed rule to delist or downlist the gray wolf or Mexican wolf under the Endangered Species Act.
KKR-20260906-17manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-062027-03-0460%politicalThe Federal Register publishes a US Fish and Wildlife Service or Interior Department document proposing or finalizing removal of Endangered Species Act protections for the gray wolf, with publication date between 2026-09-08 and 2027-03-01.
KKR-20260906-22manual/fable-5/unattested2026-09-062027-03-0415%politicalAn AfD politician is elected minister-president of a German state, or the AfD formally enters a state governing coalition, between 2026-09-06 and 2027-03-01.
KKR-20260906-44control/baserate2026-09-062027-03-0435%politicalThe Federal Register publishes a US Fish and Wildlife Service or Interior Department document proposing or finalizing removal of Endangered Species Act protections for the gray wolf, with publication date between 2026-09-08 and 2027-03-01.
KKR-20260906-49control/baserate2026-09-062027-03-0435%politicalAn AfD politician is elected minister-president of a German state, or the AfD formally enters a state governing coalition, between 2026-09-06 and 2027-03-01.
KKR-20260908-12lmstudio/realist2026-09-082027-03-0518%cyberBetween 2026-09-26 and 2026-09-29, a coordinated cyberattack on U.S. federal agencies exploits the SAP OVERPASS kernel vulnerability (CVE-2026-XXXX), resulting in at least one confirmed breach of a classified system, as reported in the CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value between 2026-09-26 and 2026-09-29.
KKR-20260907-04lmstudio/realist2026-09-072027-03-0625%cyberOn 2026-09-21, the CISA KEV catalog will carry a date-added value for a vulnerability with a CVSS score of 9.0 or higher, exploited in at least one confirmed incident between 2026-09-15 and 2026-09-21.
KKR-20260907-05lmstudio/realist2026-09-072027-03-0630%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-18 and 2026-09-25, a drone strike originating from Russian-controlled territory will result in at least one confirmed casualty in Kyiv, as verified by at least two independent sources from hostile sides (UA, WEST).
KKR-20260907-06lmstudio/realist2026-09-072027-03-0620%disasterBetween 2026-09-16 and 2026-09-22, a major earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or higher will be recorded in the Pacific Ring of Fire, as confirmed by the USGS Significant Quakes database.
KKR-20260907-07lmstudio/realist2026-09-072027-03-0610%politicalOn 2026-09-20, the German far-right AfD will win a majority in a federal parliamentary election, as confirmed by the official Federal Returning Officer report.
KKR-20260907-08lmstudio/realist2026-09-072027-03-0635%military/conflictBetween 2026-09-17 and 2026-09-24, Iran will issue a public statement declaring a restricted zone in the Strait of Hormuz, as confirmed by at least two independent sources from hostile sides (AXIS, WEST).
KKR-20260907-09lmstudio/realist2026-09-072027-03-0625%economics/marketsOn 2026-09-22, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will exceed 4.8% for the first time since 2023, as reported by the U.S. Department of the Treasury.
KKR-20260907-10lmstudio/realist2026-09-072027-03-0618%disasterBetween 2026-09-19 and 2026-09-26, a wildfire will break out in the Amazon rainforest, resulting in at least 500,000 hectares burned, as confirmed by the GDACS Alerts system.
KKR-20260907-11lmstudio/realist2026-09-072027-03-065%economics/marketsOn 2026-09-21, the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce a 50 basis point interest rate hike, as confirmed by the official FOMC press release.
KKR-20260907-12lmstudio/realist2026-09-072027-03-0622%cyberBetween 2026-09-15 and 2026-09-22, a cyberattack exploiting the N-able N-central flaw will result in a confirmed breach of a government agency's network, as verified by the CISA KEV catalog and a government press release.
KKR-20260908-15lmstudio/realist2026-09-082027-03-0638%economics/marketsBetween 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-02, a new round of sanctions is imposed by the United States on Iranian airlines, confirmed by a press release from the U.S. Department of the Treasury with a timestamp between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-02.
KKR-20260827-114operator/human2026-08-272027-07-1550%ai-claimsAnthropic records the Leveling up across the board security goal of its Frontier Safety Roadmap, stated with a target of 2027-07-01, as completed with a completion date on or before 2027-07-01, on the Frontier Safety Roadmap updates page at anthropic.com.
KKR-20260827-117control/baserate2026-08-272027-07-1543%ai-claimsAnthropic records the Leveling up across the board security goal of its Frontier Safety Roadmap, stated with a target of 2027-07-01, as completed with a completion date on or before 2027-07-01, on the Frontier Safety Roadmap updates page at anthropic.com.

(U//OS)04. RESOLVED — HITS AND MISSES, PERMANENTLY▲

(U//OS)05. VOIDED — TERMINATED, NOT CORRECTED▲

A sealed projection is never edited. Where one cannot be adjudicated as written, the only legitimate disposition is to terminate it and print why. The statement below is reproduced exactly as sealed, defect included. A void removes a position from scoring, which favours the forecaster — so every one is itemised here with its reason rather than listed as an id.

16 of 1743 issued (0.9%) have been voided.

- Reason: deadline is a Saturday - no market settlement exists

- Reason: resolution window contradicts stated timeframe

- Reason: 48-hour statement conflicts with 07-29 deadline

- Reason: conditional on trigger event with no void clause

- Reason: NATO ally likely model error for adversary; unadjudicable as stated

- Reason: ambiguous - could read either way

- Reason: Statement field contains no proposition — the text is the single word 'No'. Unadjudicable as written under RPAS law 2.

- Reason: Statement field contains no proposition — the text is the single word 'Yes'. Unadjudicable as written under RPAS law 2. Gate defect, not a forecasting defect; the projection this was meant to carry is lost.

- Reason: Statement field contains no proposition — the text is the single word 'Yes'. Unadjudicable as written under RPAS law 2. Issued at 95%, the highest confidence on the open book, and therefore the most costly gate failure in the set.

- Reason: Originating from headless browser traffic

- Reason: Statement is geographically incoherent: names the Cap Ferret peninsula (Gironde, France) as being near Madrid (Spain), roughly 700 km apart. No blind adjudicator can determine which evacuation zone is meant.

- Reason: VOID under RPAS 4.06 (issued 2026-08-05): resolution basis tests a correlated precondition (KEV date-added for CVE-2026-18577) in place of the asserted consequence (unauthorized access). Voided before the claim's stated window opened 2026-08-06; outcome-blind by construction.

- Reason: VOID under RPAS 4.06 (issued 2026-08-05): resolution basis narrows the statement with a qualifier it never makes (green alert level; statement true at any level exceeding 10,000 ha). Voided before the claim's stated window opened 2026-08-10; outcome-blind by construction. See also the gdacs resolver alert-level guard of 2026-08-05.

- Reason: triply impossible as written per the searched seat: no session, no competence, no subject matter

- Reason: [jury] No NWS Flash Flood Warning for the Boise Mountains citing wildfire risk from extreme heat between 08-21 and 08-24 was found in any reporting.

- Reason: catalog pins aftershock depth at the 10.0 km placeholder

NOTHING CLASSIFIED OR PRIVILEGED · the ledger scores the system, not the operator; consistency is not correctness — resolution is.

▲ NOTHING CLASSIFIED OR PRIVILEGED
NEBELKRÄHE · THE PRESCIENT DESK
© 2026 NebelKrähe · LICENSE · Terms · Privacy
Machine-collated open-source intelligence. Every synthesized claim traces to the record; the record traces to source. Grades are mechanical, not judgment. A ledger that keeps its own misses.
Method disclosure: collation, corroboration grading, and convergence detection are deterministic code. Category synthesis is model-drafted under citation audit; uncited sentences are flagged in place, not removed. Resolution and publication are the operator's.