▲ NOTHING CLASSIFIED OR PRIVILEGED232057Z OCT 26

NEBELKRÄHE · OSINT DESK

THE PRESCIENT DESK™ · PREDICTIVE LEDGER

Forecasts kept on the record

Calling our shots in the fog. Soaring through our misses.

NOTHING CLASSIFIED OR PRIVILEGED

KKR is the Kaos Kontrol Report — the daily forecasting stage that issues these projections. This is its permanent record: every projection ever sealed, resolved or open, hits and misses alike, segregated by the forecaster arm that issued it.

A standing Retro-Prescient Audit™ · method: RETRO_PRESCIENT_AUDIT.md

Window: all-time · 4836 issued across 21 forecaster arms · 3484 open (638 past deadline, unresolved)

No pooled score is published. A Brier score is a property of one forecaster; an average across arms is nobody's record. Every figure below is segregated by the arm that issued the projection. Skill is measured against that arm's OWN realized base rate — the strategy of stating the base rate every single time. Negative skill means the arm is losing to that strategy.

(U//OS)01. STANDING BY FORECASTER ARM▲

Disclosure — what the elicited arms are. Arms tagged manual/* are frontier language models elicited by the operator against the same packet the machine arm receives. They are not informationally independent of this desk: the model is given the desk's own corpus and standing instructions as context. Their independence is procedural — a separate instrument answering the same questions — not informational. Rows are segregated by model, and no pooled score is published, because a Brier belongs to one forecaster.

Under 30 resolved a Brier score is noise, not a record: kfk/halflife, lmstudio/auto[post-verbot], lmstudio/qwen36, lmstudio/qwen36-realist, manual/fable, manual/fable-5, manual/opus-5.5/unattested, manual/sonnet-5.5/unattested, operator/human.

CALIBRATION — control/baserate (351 resolved)

CALIBRATION — kfk/halflife (9 resolved)

CALIBRATION — lmstudio/auto[post-verbot] (9 resolved)

CALIBRATION — lmstudio/auto[post-window] (231 resolved)

CALIBRATION — lmstudio/auto[pre-verbot] (49 resolved)

CALIBRATION — lmstudio/qwen36 (1 resolved)

CALIBRATION — lmstudio/qwen36-realist (7 resolved)

CALIBRATION — lmstudio/realist (86 resolved)

CALIBRATION — manual/fable (27 resolved)

CALIBRATION — manual/fable-5 (23 resolved)

CALIBRATION — manual/fable-5.1/unattested (73 resolved)

CALIBRATION — manual/fable-5/unattested (84 resolved)

CALIBRATION — manual/opus-5 (32 resolved)

CALIBRATION — manual/opus-5.5/unattested (11 resolved)

CALIBRATION — manual/opus-5/unattested (69 resolved)

CALIBRATION — manual/sonnet-5 (40 resolved)

CALIBRATION — manual/sonnet-5.5/unattested (3 resolved)

CALIBRATION — manual/sonnet-5/unattested (158 resolved)

CALIBRATION — operator/human (2 resolved)

(U//OS)02. PAST DEADLINE — RESOLVE THESE (python kkr.py --resolve)▲

A projection appears here when its window has closed and it has not yet been adjudicated. That is not the same as neglect. Most criteria on this book ask whether an event occurred inside the window, not whether it was reported inside it — so an event confirmed on the 30th can satisfy a criterion that closed on the 28th, and resolving before the sources land would be guessing. Collation takes the time it takes, and the queue is printed rather than hidden while it does.

The bound that keeps this from becoming a parking space: a row sitting here more than fourteen days past its deadline is a defect in this desk, not in the world. The count is published on this page so that it is visible when it happens.

• KKR-20260722-06 (70%, due 2026-10-15) TikTok or another major platform announces age verification for French users — resolves on: A company press release or two independent wire reports confirm a named platform announcing age verification for France between 2026-07-23 and 2026-10-15
• KKR-20260726-17 (10%, due 2026-09-28) A major cyberattack on a U.S. state government website results in public data exposure between 2026-09-25 and 2026-09-28. — resolves on: A U.S. state government website suffers a confirmed data breach resulting in public exposure of personal data, as reported by at least two independent news sources between 2026-09-25 and 2026-09-28.
• KKR-20260727-03 (50%, due 2026-09-15) Major General John W. Lubas will no longer be named as commanding officer of the 3rd Infantry Division in the source of record on 2026-09-15. — resolves on: Resolved on 2026-09-15 by inspecting https://www.wkdzradio.com/2026/07/17/former-fort-campbell-commander-nominated-to-lead-xviii-airborne-corps/news-edge/ : hit if a different officer is named, miss if the same officer is named.
• KKR-20260727-20 (55%, due 2026-09-30) At least three separately published national voting-intention polls will place Reform UK ahead of Labour, each with fieldwork ending between 2026-07-28 and 2026-09-30. — resolves on: Counted from the pollsters' own published tables for that fieldwork window. Three distinct polling companies required; repeat waves by one company count once.
• KKR-20260727-24 (47%, due 2026-09-30) The Israeli cabinet will publicly approve an expansion of ground operations in Gaza beyond the limited force approved in July 2026, on or before 2026-09-30. — resolves on: Resolved by an Israeli Prime Minister's Office statement or two wire services reporting a cabinet decision expanding the approved force, dated on or before 2026-09-30.
• KKR-20260729-03 (15%, due 2026-10-20) On or before 2026-10-20, a major earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher strikes Japan, resulting in over 1,000 fatalities. — resolves on: A magnitude 7.0 or higher earthquake occurs in Japan and results in at least 1,000 confirmed fatalities, as reported by USGS and BBC World.
• KKR-20260729-10 (20%, due 2026-10-22) Between 2026-10-15 and 2026-10-22, a major wildfire in California burns over 100,000 acres and causes at least 20 fatalities. — resolves on: A wildfire in California burns over 100,000 acres and causes at least 20 fatalities between 2026-10-15 and 2026-10-22, as confirmed by Cal Fire or BBC World.
• KKR-20260729-13 (40%, due 2026-09-30) CISA publishes an advisory, alert or advisory update that explicitly names the Minnesota water utility intrusions, on or before 2026-09-30. — resolves on: Resolved from the CISA cybersecurity advisories index on 2026-09-30. Yes if any item published after 2026-07-29 names Minnesota water utilities or that campaign.
• KKR-20260730-01 (15%, due 2026-09-30) The Strait of Hormuz is closed to commercial shipping for 24 or more consecutive hours between 2026-07-31 and 2026-09-30, as reported by at least two of Reuters, the Associated Press and Lloyds List. — resolves on: Resolved on 2026-09-30 by searching Reuters, AP and Lloyds List archives: hit if at least two report a closure or halt of commercial transits lasting 24 or more hours dated in the window, miss otherwise.
• KKR-20260730-25 (18%, due 2026-09-15) Between 2026-07-30 and 2026-09-15, a U.S. federal agency or critical-infrastructure operator will be publicly confirmed as compromised via the Cisco Secure Firewall Management Center hard-coded credential flaw CVE-2026-20316. — resolves on: True if CISA, a federal agency, or a major outlet (Reuters, Hacker News, BleepingComputer) confirms a specific victim compromised through CVE-2026-20316 between 2026-07-30 and 2026-09-15; otherwise false.
• KKR-20260731-05 (70%, due 2026-10-15) A major security vendor publicly attributes at least one new npm package compromise, distinct from the Debug and Chalk incidents, to North Korean actors between 2026-08-07 and 2026-10-15 — resolves on: The Hacker News or BleepingComputer report a named security vendor attributing a new npm package compromise to DPRK-linked actors, dated between 2026-08-07 and 2026-10-15
• KKR-20260801-02 (15%, due 2026-09-16) Between 2026-09-09 and 2026-09-16, Iran will launch a missile strike on a U.S. military installation in the Persian Gulf region. — resolves on: A public report from at least two independent sources across hostile sides (AXIS, WEST) confirms a missile strike by Iran on a U.S. military installation in the Persian Gulf between 2026-09-09 and 2026-09-16, with no denial from U.S. defense sources.
• KKR-20260801-07 (72%, due 2026-09-30) An extraordinary European Council or Justice and Home Affairs Council session on the Ceuta migration crisis convenes between 2026-08-08 and 2026-09-30. — resolves on: Resolved from the Council of the EU meeting calendar on 2026-09-30. Yes if a special or extraordinary session in the window lists Ceuta or Spain-Morocco migration on its published agenda.
• KKR-20260801-23 (55%, due 2026-09-30) US or Israeli forces strike Iranian oil or gas export infrastructure at Kharg Island, Bandar Abbas, or Asaluyeh between 2026-08-02 and 2026-09-30. — resolves on: YES if at least two major international news agencies report a US or Israeli strike on Iranian oil or gas export facilities at Kharg Island, Bandar Abbas, or Asaluyeh between 2026-08-02 and 2026-09-30; otherwise NO.
• KKR-20260804-60 (85%, due 2026-10-20) The United States Senate confirms Todd Blanche as Attorney General in a recorded floor vote held between 2026-08-05 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if a Congress.gov Senate roll call vote dated between 2026-08-05 and 2026-10-16 records confirmation of the Blanche nomination to be Attorney General.
• KKR-20260804-61 (84%, due 2026-10-05) The man charged over the largest 2026 Washington state wildfire faces at least one arson count filed and not dismissed at any point between 2026-08-05 and 2026-09-30. — resolves on: TRUE if the Washington state court docket for that defendant shows an arson count filed and not dismissed on a date between 2026-08-05 and 2026-09-30.
• KKR-20260807-12 (27%, due 2026-10-05) Houthi forces launch a ground assault on Marib city or its immediate outskirts between 2026-08-08 and 2026-09-30. — resolves on: Al Jazeera and at least one of Reuters, AP, or BBC report a Houthi ground offensive against Marib city or its immediate outskirts occurring inside the window.
• KKR-20260808-04 (20%, due 2026-09-07) Between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03, a new wildfire will be reported in the United States by the GDACS Alerts feed, with a confirmed area burned exceeding 10,000 acres. — resolves on: The GDACS Alerts feed records a new wildfire in the United States between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03 with a confirmed area burned exceeding 10,000 acres.
• KKR-20260808-08 (85%, due 2026-10-14) Between 2026-08-09 and 2026-10-09 the US Department of Justice announces the extradition of at least one defendant from Colombia to the United States on drug trafficking charges. — resolves on: A justice.gov press release dated inside the window announces at least one extradition from Colombia on drug trafficking charges; absent such a release, false.
• KKR-20260808-15 (55%, due 2026-10-19) CISA adds a Metabase vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a date-added value between 2026-08-09 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: The CISA KEV catalog JSON contains an entry naming Metabase in vendorProject or product with dateAdded between 2026-08-09 and 2026-10-15.
• KKR-20260808-17 (38%, due 2026-10-19) Iran publicly announces an agreed arrangement permitting international commercial transit of the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-08-11 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: The Iranian foreign ministry, IRGC, or presidency announces a Hormuz transit or reopening arrangement dated in the window, reported by two of Reuters, AP, AFP, Al Jazeera.
• KKR-20260809-02 (32%, due 2026-09-02) Between 2026-08-27 and 2026-08-30, a new cyberattack targeting a U.S. government system is reported by two wire services with independent verification, and the CISA KEV catalog includes the vulnerability with a date-added value in that window. — resolves on: The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-08-27 and 2026-08-30, and the attack is reported by two wire services with independent verification.
• KKR-20260809-07 (25%, due 2026-09-24) Iran and Oman publicly announce a concluded arrangement governing commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, announced between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-20. — resolves on: An Iranian government or IRGC source and an Omani government source both describe a concluded transit arrangement, carried by Reuters plus one of AP, AFP, or Oman News Agency.
• KKR-20260809-11 (75%, due 2026-09-29) Trial proceedings in the New York state prosecution of Luigi Mangione commence in open court between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-25. — resolves on: The New York County Supreme Court docket or courtroom reporting records jury selection or opening statements in the state case beginning inside the window.
• KKR-20260810-19 (38%, due 2026-10-05) Iranian forces seize or forcibly board at least one commercial merchant vessel in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-30. — resolves on: TRUE if UKMTO issues an incident advisory describing an Iranian seizure or boarding of a merchant vessel in that area within the window and at least one of Reuters, AP, or AFP reports the same incident.
• KKR-20260810-35 (31%, due 2026-10-05) Iranian forces seize or forcibly board at least one commercial merchant vessel in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-30. — resolves on: TRUE if UKMTO issues an incident advisory describing an Iranian seizure or boarding of a merchant vessel in that area within the window and at least one of Reuters, AP, or AFP reports the same incident.
• KKR-20260811-19 (30%, due 2026-10-20) The CISA KEV catalog adds at least one new Microsoft SharePoint Server CVE, with dateAdded between 2026-08-12 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if a KEV entry whose product field names SharePoint carries a dateAdded between 2026-08-12 and 2026-10-16 inclusive and was absent from the catalog on 2026-08-11.
• KKR-20260811-21 (40%, due 2026-10-05) United States and Iranian officials hold a publicly acknowledged direct bilateral meeting between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-30. — resolves on: TRUE if a US executive branch statement and an Iranian foreign ministry statement both confirm a direct bilateral meeting held inside the window, and two of Reuters, AP, AFP report it.
• KKR-20260811-27 (68%, due 2026-09-10) A US water or energy utility beyond those in items 33, 34, and 37 will publicly disclose a new ransomware incident, occurring between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-08. — resolves on: TRUE if BleepingComputer, The Hacker News, or a CISA advisory reports a new confirmed US water- or energy-utility ransomware incident dated 2026-08-11 to 2026-09-08, confirmed by 2026-09-10; else FALSE.
• KKR-20260811-45 (33%, due 2026-10-20) The CISA KEV catalog adds at least one new Microsoft SharePoint Server CVE, with dateAdded between 2026-08-12 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if a KEV entry whose product field names SharePoint carries a dateAdded between 2026-08-12 and 2026-10-16 inclusive and was absent from the catalog on 2026-08-11.
• KKR-20260811-47 (33%, due 2026-10-05) United States and Iranian officials hold a publicly acknowledged direct bilateral meeting between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-30. — resolves on: TRUE if a US executive branch statement and an Iranian foreign ministry statement both confirm a direct bilateral meeting held inside the window, and two of Reuters, AP, AFP report it.
• KKR-20260811-51 (33%, due 2026-10-05) The USGS catalog lists at least one magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake within 300 km of USGS event us6000tjl2, with origin time between 2026-08-12 and 2026-09-30. — resolves on: TRUE if the USGS FDSN event query returns at least one M6.0 or greater event within 300 km of the us6000tjl2 epicenter with origin time inside the window.
• KKR-20260811-53 (33%, due 2026-09-10) A US water or energy utility beyond those in items 33, 34, and 37 will publicly disclose a new ransomware incident, occurring between 2026-08-11 and 2026-09-08. — resolves on: TRUE if BleepingComputer, The Hacker News, or a CISA advisory reports a new confirmed US water- or energy-utility ransomware incident dated 2026-08-11 to 2026-09-08, confirmed by 2026-09-10; else FALSE.
• KKR-20260812-09 (25%, due 2026-10-14) Russian authorities seize or detain a commercial vessel flagged in or owned by an EU or UK entity between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-12. — resolves on: TRUE if at least two of Reuters, AP, and AFP report Russian seizure or detention of an EU or UK flagged or owned commercial vessel occurring between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-12.
• KKR-20260812-12 (22%, due 2026-10-19) Russian forces seize or detain at least one commercial vessel flagged in or operated from an EU member state between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: True if at least two of Reuters, Associated Press, and the flag state government confirm Russian seizure or detention of a named EU-flagged or EU-operated commercial vessel between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-15.
• KKR-20260812-15 (28%, due 2026-10-19) The USGS earthquake catalog records at least one magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake located in Colombia with origin time between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: True if USGS ANSS ComCat lists an event of magnitude 6.0 or above whose place field names Colombia with origin time between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-15.
• KKR-20260812-26 (33%, due 2026-10-14) Russian authorities seize or detain a commercial vessel flagged in or owned by an EU or UK entity between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-12. — resolves on: TRUE if at least two of Reuters, AP, and AFP report Russian seizure or detention of an EU or UK flagged or owned commercial vessel occurring between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-12.
• KKR-20260812-29 (33%, due 2026-10-19) Russian forces seize or detain at least one commercial vessel flagged in or operated from an EU member state between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: True if at least two of Reuters, Associated Press, and the flag state government confirm Russian seizure or detention of a named EU-flagged or EU-operated commercial vessel between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-15.
• KKR-20260812-32 (33%, due 2026-10-19) The USGS earthquake catalog records at least one magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake located in Colombia with origin time between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: True if USGS ANSS ComCat lists an event of magnitude 6.0 or above whose place field names Colombia with origin time between 2026-08-13 and 2026-10-15.
• KKR-20260813-14 (82%, due 2026-10-19) Nick Reiner enters a plea in court to the indictment referenced in reporting dated 2026-08-13, with the plea entered between 2026-08-14 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: TRUE if Los Angeles County court records, or reporting by AP, Reuters, or the Los Angeles Times, show a plea entered by Nick Reiner between 2026-08-14 and 2026-10-15; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260813-21 (33%, due 2026-10-19) Nick Reiner enters a plea in court to the indictment referenced in reporting dated 2026-08-13, with the plea entered between 2026-08-14 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: TRUE if Los Angeles County court records, or reporting by AP, Reuters, or the Los Angeles Times, show a plea entered by Nick Reiner between 2026-08-14 and 2026-10-15; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260813-24 (38%, due 2026-09-24) Between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-20, Iranian forces seize, board, or detain at least one commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Oman. — resolves on: UKMTO issues an incident advisory and Reuters or Lloyds List reports an Iranian seizure, boarding, or detention of a commercial vessel in those waters occurring inside the window.
• KKR-20260813-25 (74%, due 2026-10-05) A named successor to Karoline Leavitt as White House press secretary is publicly announced between 2026-08-14 and 2026-09-30. — resolves on: The White House or the President names a specific individual as press secretary or acting press secretary inside the window, reported by both the Associated Press and Reuters.
• KKR-20260813-29 (33%, due 2026-09-24) Between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-20, Iranian forces seize, board, or detain at least one commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Oman. — resolves on: UKMTO issues an incident advisory and Reuters or Lloyds List reports an Iranian seizure, boarding, or detention of a commercial vessel in those waters occurring inside the window.
• KKR-20260813-30 (33%, due 2026-10-05) A named successor to Karoline Leavitt as White House press secretary is publicly announced between 2026-08-14 and 2026-09-30. — resolves on: The White House or the President names a specific individual as press secretary or acting press secretary inside the window, reported by both the Associated Press and Reuters.
• KKR-20260815-03 (33%, due 2026-09-16) The USGS ComCat catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater with epicenter within 300 km of USGS event us6000tjl2 and origin time between 2026-08-15 and 2026-09-14. — resolves on: A ComCat query on the deadline returns at least one M 6.0 or greater event meeting the distance and origin-time criteria.
• KKR-20260815-07 (15%, due 2026-10-19) A NATO member state formally requests Article 4 consultations between 2026-08-17 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: TRUE if NATO publishes a statement confirming Article 4 consultations were invoked, and Reuters and the Associated Press both report the request, dated inside the window.
• KKR-20260815-13 (33%, due 2026-10-19) A NATO member state formally requests Article 4 consultations between 2026-08-17 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: TRUE if NATO publishes a statement confirming Article 4 consultations were invoked, and Reuters and the Associated Press both report the request, dated inside the window.
• KKR-20260815-18 (42%, due 2026-10-19) NATO or a Baltic national air force kinetically shoots down or intercepts a drone or unmanned aerial vehicle inside Estonian, Latvian, or Lithuanian airspace, distinct from the August 14, 2026 Balvi incident, between 2026-08-21 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: NATO, a Baltic Ministry of Defence, or two of Reuters, AP, and Bloomberg confirm a kinetic drone shoot-down in Baltic airspace within the window, distinct from the Aug 14 Balvi incident.
• KKR-20260815-21 (33%, due 2026-10-19) NATO or a Baltic national air force kinetically shoots down or intercepts a drone or unmanned aerial vehicle inside Estonian, Latvian, or Lithuanian airspace, distinct from the August 14, 2026 Balvi incident, between 2026-08-21 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: NATO, a Baltic Ministry of Defence, or two of Reuters, AP, and Bloomberg confirm a kinetic drone shoot-down in Baltic airspace within the window, distinct from the Aug 14 Balvi incident.
• KKR-20260815-25 (20%, due 2026-09-02) At least one major wildfire in Europe causes over 100 evacuations between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, confirmed by two independent sources (BBC World, Al Jazeera). — resolves on: Two independent sources (BBC World, Al Jazeera) report that a wildfire in Europe caused over 100 evacuations between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28.
• KKR-20260817-05 (75%, due 2026-10-02) Authorities announce the arrest or charging of at least one suspect in the 2026-08-15 Virginia State shooting in which five people were shot, between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-30. — resolves on: True if a law enforcement agency publicly announces an arrest or charges in the 2026-08-15 Virginia State five-victim shooting, reported by at least one national outlet, by 2026-09-30.
• KKR-20260817-10 (31%, due 2026-10-02) Authorities announce the arrest or charging of at least one suspect in the 2026-08-15 Virginia State shooting in which five people were shot, between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-30. — resolves on: True if a law enforcement agency publicly announces an arrest or charges in the 2026-08-15 Virginia State five-victim shooting, reported by at least one national outlet, by 2026-09-30.
• KKR-20260817-11 (30%, due 2026-09-24) Ukrainian long-range strikes halt loadings at a named Russian crude export terminal - Novorossiysk, Tuapse, Primorsk, or Ust-Luga - with the strike occurring between 2026-08-24 and 2026-09-21. — resolves on: Reuters or Bloomberg reports suspended loadings at one of those four terminals attributed to a strike inside the window, and a Russian federal or regional official confirms the attack, by 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260817-16 (50%, due 2026-09-24) Ukrainian long-range strikes halt loadings at a named Russian crude export terminal - Novorossiysk, Tuapse, Primorsk, or Ust-Luga - with the strike occurring between 2026-08-24 and 2026-09-21. — resolves on: Reuters or Bloomberg reports suspended loadings at one of those four terminals attributed to a strike inside the window, and a Russian federal or regional official confirms the attack, by 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260817-21 (15%, due 2026-09-22) Between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-20, Qatar and Iran issue public statements that converge on a single account of the fate of the three Iranian pilots Qatar allegedly shot down in March 2026, either confirming them alive and held or confirming their deaths. — resolves on: TRUE if Qatar and Iran state the same outcome for the three named pilots, reported by Reuters, AP, or AFP, between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-20; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260817-22 (6%, due 2026-09-17) Between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-15, the United States government takes a formal, documented action asserting a sovereignty or territorial claim over any part of the Strait of Hormuz, beyond rhetorical statements by the President. — resolves on: TRUE if the Federal Register, a State Department notice, or a wire service reports a formal US filing or action claiming sovereignty over Hormuz waters between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-15; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260817-24 (40%, due 2026-09-22) Between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-20, the US Navy or Department of Defense publicly confirms that USS George Washington has relieved USS Abraham Lincoln on its Middle East deployment station. — resolves on: TRUE if DoD or Navy public affairs, or a wire service citing an on-record defense official, confirms the Lincoln to George Washington handover between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-20; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260817-25 (50%, due 2026-09-22) Between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-20, Qatar and Iran issue public statements that converge on a single account of the fate of the three Iranian pilots Qatar allegedly shot down in March 2026, either confirming them alive and held or confirming their deaths. — resolves on: TRUE if Qatar and Iran state the same outcome for the three named pilots, reported by Reuters, AP, or AFP, between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-20; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260817-26 (50%, due 2026-09-17) Between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-15, the United States government takes a formal, documented action asserting a sovereignty or territorial claim over any part of the Strait of Hormuz, beyond rhetorical statements by the President. — resolves on: TRUE if the Federal Register, a State Department notice, or a wire service reports a formal US filing or action claiming sovereignty over Hormuz waters between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-15; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260817-28 (29%, due 2026-09-22) Between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-20, the US Navy or Department of Defense publicly confirms that USS George Washington has relieved USS Abraham Lincoln on its Middle East deployment station. — resolves on: TRUE if DoD or Navy public affairs, or a wire service citing an on-record defense official, confirms the Lincoln to George Washington handover between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-20; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260817-36 (65%, due 2026-08-26) Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a drone strike will be reported in Dnipro with at least one corroborating report from a hostile side. — resolves on: At least one report from a hostile side (RU, UA, or AXIS) confirms a drone strike in Dnipro between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.
• KKR-20260817-40 (34%, due 2026-10-19) WTI crude oil settles at or above 90.00 USD per barrel on any trading day between 2026-08-17 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: TRUE if the CME/NYMEX WTI front-month settlement price is at or above 90.00 USD per barrel on any trading day between 2026-08-17 and 2026-10-15; FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260817-45 (55%, due 2026-09-17) Virginia prosecutors file adult criminal charges against the campus shooting suspect between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14. — resolves on: TRUE if a Virginia court record, AP, or BBC report states the suspect faces adult criminal charges between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14; FALSE if the case remains exclusively juvenile.
• KKR-20260817-48 (25%, due 2026-10-19) WTI crude oil settles at or above 90.00 USD per barrel on any trading day between 2026-08-17 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: TRUE if the CME/NYMEX WTI front-month settlement price is at or above 90.00 USD per barrel on any trading day between 2026-08-17 and 2026-10-15; FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260817-53 (31%, due 2026-09-17) Virginia prosecutors file adult criminal charges against the campus shooting suspect between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14. — resolves on: TRUE if a Virginia court record, AP, or BBC report states the suspect faces adult criminal charges between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-14; FALSE if the case remains exclusively juvenile.
• KKR-20260817-58 (60%, due 2026-10-19) A CVE identifier for the Microsoft Defender vulnerability publicly tracked as ShieldBreak is added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-18 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: True if the CISA KEV catalog gains an entry for a Microsoft Defender vulnerability, identified in vendor or CISA documentation as ShieldBreak, with dateAdded between 2026-08-18 and 2026-10-16.
• KKR-20260817-61 (31%, due 2026-10-02) Authorities announce the arrest or charging of at least one suspect in the 2026-08-15 Virginia State shooting in which five people were shot, between 2026-08-17 and 2026-09-30. — resolves on: True if a law enforcement agency publicly announces an arrest or charges in the 2026-08-15 Virginia State five-victim shooting, reported by at least one national outlet, by 2026-09-30.
• KKR-20260817-66 (23%, due 2026-10-19) A CVE identifier for the Microsoft Defender vulnerability publicly tracked as ShieldBreak is added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-08-18 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: True if the CISA KEV catalog gains an entry for a Microsoft Defender vulnerability, identified in vendor or CISA documentation as ShieldBreak, with dateAdded between 2026-08-18 and 2026-10-16.
• KKR-20260818-19 (58%, due 2026-10-20) In the Disney and ABC First Amendment suit against the FCC, the FCC files a motion to dismiss or an answer between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: The federal docket for the ABC or Disney suit against the FCC records a motion to dismiss or an answer filed by the FCC between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-15.
• KKR-20260818-35 (29%, due 2026-10-20) In the Disney and ABC First Amendment suit against the FCC, the FCC files a motion to dismiss or an answer between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: The federal docket for the ABC or Disney suit against the FCC records a motion to dismiss or an answer filed by the FCC between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-15.
• KKR-20260819-16 (52%, due 2026-10-19) The UAE government publicly attributes a missile or drone impact on UAE territory or territorial waters to Iran, for an impact in the window 2026-08-26 to 2026-10-15. — resolves on: Reuters and Agence France-Presse both report a UAE government statement attributing a missile or drone impact on UAE territory or territorial waters to Iran within the window.
• KKR-20260819-25 (7%, due 2026-10-19) Between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-17, Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada or Central Election Commission formally schedules a date for a presidential election, following the sacked defence minister's public call for one. — resolves on: TRUE if the Verkhovna Rada or Ukraine's Central Election Commission issues an official act setting a presidential election date, reported by two of Reuters, AP, or Ukrainska Pravda, by 2026-10-19.
• KKR-20260819-26 (20%, due 2026-10-19) Between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-17, the WHO Director-General declares the Democratic Republic of Congo Ebola outbreak, which reached 5,000 cases this window, a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. — resolves on: TRUE if WHO's Director-General issues a formal PHEIC declaration covering the DRC Ebola outbreak between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-17, per WHO statement and two wire services, by 2026-10-19.
• KKR-20260819-37 (50%, due 2026-10-19) The UAE government publicly attributes a missile or drone impact on UAE territory or territorial waters to Iran, for an impact in the window 2026-08-26 to 2026-10-15. — resolves on: Reuters and Agence France-Presse both report a UAE government statement attributing a missile or drone impact on UAE territory or territorial waters to Iran within the window.
• KKR-20260819-46 (29%, due 2026-10-19) Between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-17, Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada or Central Election Commission formally schedules a date for a presidential election, following the sacked defence minister's public call for one. — resolves on: TRUE if the Verkhovna Rada or Ukraine's Central Election Commission issues an official act setting a presidential election date, reported by two of Reuters, AP, or Ukrainska Pravda, by 2026-10-19.
• KKR-20260819-47 (33%, due 2026-10-19) Between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-17, the WHO Director-General declares the Democratic Republic of Congo Ebola outbreak, which reached 5,000 cases this window, a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. — resolves on: TRUE if WHO's Director-General issues a formal PHEIC declaration covering the DRC Ebola outbreak between 2026-08-19 and 2026-10-17, per WHO statement and two wire services, by 2026-10-19.
• KKR-20260820-04 (40%, due 2026-09-02) Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24, a new military offensive will be reported in the Zaporizhzhia region with confirmed casualties. — resolves on: Two or more independent sources report a new military offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region with confirmed casualties between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24.
• KKR-20260820-10 (40%, due 2026-10-20) The USGS ComCat catalog records an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater with epicenter within 150 km of USGS event us6000tkt2 near Ende, Indonesia, with origin time between 2026-08-21 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: A USGS ComCat query centered on event us6000tkt2 with a 150 km radius returns at least one magnitude 6.0 or greater event with origin time between 2026-08-21 and 2026-10-16 UTC.
• KKR-20260820-22 (50%, due 2026-09-28) Between 2026-08-20 and 2026-09-24, Jewel Howard-Taylor, former Vice President of Liberia charged 2026-08-19 with drug trafficking and money laundering, will make a first court appearance in Liberia, reported by Reuters, AP, or BBC. — resolves on: TRUE if Reuters, AP, or BBC report a first court appearance, arraignment, or bail hearing for Jewel Howard-Taylor in a Liberian court between 2026-08-20 and 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260820-26 (22%, due 2026-10-19) United States forces conduct an officially acknowledged strike on targets inside Iranian territory between 2026-08-21 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: The Department of Defense or the White House publicly confirms US munitions struck targets inside Iran, the strike dated inside the window, carried by both Reuters and AP.
• KKR-20260822-05 (40%, due 2026-09-08) At the sentencing hearing scheduled for 2026-09-04 at Preston Crown Court, at least one of the five Barclays-branch Palestine Action defendants (Atiqnisar, Kelly, Malik, O'Hagan, or Yaniv) receives an immediate custodial sentence. — resolves on: Resolves YES if Preston Crown Court sentencing coverage (BBC, Guardian, PA Media, or comparable outlets) confirms at least one of the five defendants receives an immediate custodial sentence rather than a suspended sentence, community order, or fine; resolves NO if all five receive non-custodial or suspended sentences.
• KKR-20260822-37 (55%, due 2026-10-19) Between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-15, the Government of Canada will formally impose new tariffs on US goods, described by Canadian officials as a dollar for dollar or matching response to the US tariff increase reported on 2026-08-22. — resolves on: TRUE if Finance Canada or the Canadian government announces new tariffs on US goods described as a dollar for dollar or matching response, confirmed by Reuters or CBC; FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260822-41 (72%, due 2026-10-21) A complaint challenging the lawfulness of the Section 338 tariffs on Canadian goods is filed in a US federal court between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: A US Court of International Trade or federal district court docket shows a complaint filed in that window seeking to invalidate or enjoin the Section 338 duties on Canadian imports.
• KKR-20260822-45 (58%, due 2026-10-21) A jury returns a guilty verdict on the murder count against Duane Davis in the Clark County, Nevada prosecution over the 1996 killing of Tupac Shakur, between 2026-08-24 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: The Clark County District Court docket records a jury verdict of guilty on the murder count, entered inside that window.
• KKR-20260824-06 (28%, due 2026-09-04) A new cyberattack campaign targeting critical infrastructure in the U.S. will be attributed to a foreign state actor by CISA between 2026-08-25 and 2026-09-01. — resolves on: CISA will issue a public advisory or alert, accessible at https://www.cisa.gov/ or a major news outlet, attributing a cyberattack campaign targeting U.S. critical infrastructure to a foreign state actor, with the advisory issued between 2026-08-25 and 2026-09-01.
• KKR-20260825-12 (35%, due 2026-10-19) On at least one day between 2026-08-26 and 2026-10-15, the Singapore National Environment Agency 24-hour PSI for at least one of the five reporting regions reaches 101 or higher. — resolves on: TRUE if NEA published 24-hour PSI data (data.gov.sg historical PSI or NEA haze page) shows a value of 101 or higher for any region on any day 2026-08-26 through 2026-10-15.
• KKR-20260825-14 (28%, due 2026-10-02) A New York state court issues any order or ruling, including on a preliminary motion, in the business-group lawsuit against the city-owned grocery store initiative, between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-30. — resolves on: TRUE if the case docket in the New York court e-filing system shows a judicial order or ruling entered between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-30 in this case; FALSE if no order is entered.
• KKR-20260825-15 (30%, due 2026-09-11) A named law-enforcement agency (Europol, FBI, or a national police force) announces additional arrests connected to the global cybercrime crackdown, between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-08. — resolves on: TRUE if Europol, the FBI, or a national police agency issues a press release naming additional arrests tied to this operation, dated 2026-08-26 through 2026-09-08; FALSE if no such release appears.
• KKR-20260825-22 (70%, due 2026-10-05) At least four distinct Russian oil refineries are struck in drone attacks between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30, each acknowledged by a Russian regional governor, ministry, or federal agency. — resolves on: TRUE if four or more separately named Russian refineries are reported hit inside that window with acknowledgment from a Russian governor, ministry, or Rosaviatsia statement.
• KKR-20260827-17 (40%, due 2026-10-20) A named extortion group publicly claims the Boston Scientific intrusion by listing the company on a leak site between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: At least two of BleepingComputer, Cybersecurity Dive, Reuters, and The Record report a named group listing Boston Scientific on an extortion leak site inside the window.
• KKR-20260827-33 (23%, due 2026-10-20) A named extortion group publicly claims the Boston Scientific intrusion by listing the company on a leak site between 2026-08-27 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: At least two of BleepingComputer, Cybersecurity Dive, Reuters, and The Record report a named group listing Boston Scientific on an extortion leak site inside the window.
• KKR-20260827-48 (33%, due 2026-10-19) On at least one day between 2026-08-26 and 2026-10-15, the Singapore National Environment Agency 24-hour PSI for at least one of the five reporting regions reaches 101 or higher. — resolves on: TRUE if NEA published 24-hour PSI data (data.gov.sg historical PSI or NEA haze page) shows a value of 101 or higher for any region on any day 2026-08-26 through 2026-10-15.
• KKR-20260827-53 (50%, due 2026-10-05) At least four distinct Russian oil refineries are struck in drone attacks between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30, each acknowledged by a Russian regional governor, ministry, or federal agency. — resolves on: TRUE if four or more separately named Russian refineries are reported hit inside that window with acknowledgment from a Russian governor, ministry, or Rosaviatsia statement.
• KKR-20260827-56 (29%, due 2026-10-02) A New York state court issues any order or ruling, including on a preliminary motion, in the business-group lawsuit against the city-owned grocery store initiative, between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-30. — resolves on: TRUE if the case docket in the New York court e-filing system shows a judicial order or ruling entered between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-30 in this case; FALSE if no order is entered.
• KKR-20260827-57 (31%, due 2026-09-11) A named law-enforcement agency (Europol, FBI, or a national police force) announces additional arrests connected to the global cybercrime crackdown, between 2026-08-26 and 2026-09-08. — resolves on: TRUE if Europol, the FBI, or a national police agency issues a press release naming additional arrests tied to this operation, dated 2026-08-26 through 2026-09-08; FALSE if no such release appears.
• KKR-20260827-63 (20%, due 2026-09-07) Between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03, a confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2021-23758 will be reported by at least two independent sources. — resolves on: A confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2021-23758 will be reported by at least two independent sources, one from a Western outlet and one from an Axis-aligned outlet, between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03.
• KKR-20260827-64 (30%, due 2026-09-07) Between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03, a confirmed forest fire will be reported in Canada with a size exceeding 10,000 hectares. — resolves on: A confirmed forest fire in Canada, reported by GDACS Alerts and verified by a second independent source, will have a size exceeding 10,000 hectares between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03.
• KKR-20260827-65 (25%, due 2026-09-07) Between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03, a confirmed political statement by Trump regarding Iran sanctions will be corroborated by both Western and Axis sources. — resolves on: A political statement by Trump regarding Iran sanctions, published between 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03, will be corroborated by at least one Western and one Axis-aligned source.
• KKR-20260827-78 (27%, due 2026-10-19) The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog entry for CVE-2026-8452, the Citrix NetScaler ADC and Gateway flaw added 2026-08-26, has its knownRansomwareCampaignUse field changed to Yes between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: The public CISA KEV catalog feed at cisa.gov shows knownRansomwareCampaignUse equal to Yes for CVE-2026-8452, with the change falling inside the window, checked by 2026-10-19.
• KKR-20260827-79 (38%, due 2026-10-21) Boston Scientific files a Form 8-K Item 1.05 material cybersecurity incident disclosure with the SEC regarding the cyberattack disclosed 2026-08-26, between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-17. — resolves on: SEC EDGAR shows a Boston Scientific Form 8-K containing Item 1.05 filed within the window, checked by 2026-10-21.
• KKR-20260827-101 (33%, due 2026-10-19) The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog entry for CVE-2026-8452, the Citrix NetScaler ADC and Gateway flaw added 2026-08-26, has its knownRansomwareCampaignUse field changed to Yes between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: The public CISA KEV catalog feed at cisa.gov shows knownRansomwareCampaignUse equal to Yes for CVE-2026-8452, with the change falling inside the window, checked by 2026-10-19.
• KKR-20260827-102 (33%, due 2026-10-21) Boston Scientific files a Form 8-K Item 1.05 material cybersecurity incident disclosure with the SEC regarding the cyberattack disclosed 2026-08-26, between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-17. — resolves on: SEC EDGAR shows a Boston Scientific Form 8-K containing Item 1.05 filed within the window, checked by 2026-10-21.
• KKR-20260827-113 (70%, due 2026-10-14) Anthropic records the provable inference prototype goal of its Frontier Safety Roadmap, stated as a prototype to be developed by 2026-09-30, as completed with a completion date on or before 2026-09-30, on the Frontier Safety Roadmap updates page at anthropic.com. — resolves on: The Frontier Safety Roadmap updates page at anthropic.com lists the provable inference prototype goal with status Completed and a completion date on or before 2026-09-30, checked by 2026-10-14; a goal marked de-prioritized, removed, or completed after 2026-09-30 resolves false.
• KKR-20260827-116 (43%, due 2026-10-14) Anthropic records the provable inference prototype goal of its Frontier Safety Roadmap, stated as a prototype to be developed by 2026-09-30, as completed with a completion date on or before 2026-09-30, on the Frontier Safety Roadmap updates page at anthropic.com. — resolves on: The Frontier Safety Roadmap updates page at anthropic.com lists the provable inference prototype goal with status Completed and a completion date on or before 2026-09-30, checked by 2026-10-14; a goal marked de-prioritized, removed, or completed after 2026-09-30 resolves false.
• KKR-20260827-120 (60%, due 2026-10-19) The official confirmed death toll from the late-August 2026 Nepal-Tibet flash floods will stand at 750 or more at some point between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: Between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15, figures from the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority of Nepal plus official Chinese tallies for Tibet total 750 or more confirmed dead.
• KKR-20260829-05 (35%, due 2026-09-17) A cyberattack exploiting a flaw in PaperCut software will be confirmed by BleepingComputer between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-15. — resolves on: BleepingComputer publishes a report between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-17 confirming that a cyberattack exploited a flaw in PaperCut software between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-15.
• KKR-20260829-07 (30%, due 2026-09-17) A drone strike on Gaza City will be confirmed by Al Jazeera and BBC World between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-15. — resolves on: Al Jazeera and BBC World each publish a report between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-17 confirming a drone strike on Gaza City between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-15.
• KKR-20260829-09 (25%, due 2026-09-17) A major cyberattack exploiting a flaw in the Cosmos EVM will be confirmed by The Hacker News between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-15. — resolves on: The Hacker News publishes a report between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-17 confirming that a cyberattack exploited a flaw in the Cosmos EVM between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-15.
• KKR-20260829-13 (55%, due 2026-10-19) The combined confirmed death toll from the Nepal-Tibet flash floods reaches at least 1000 between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: Official Nepali government figures or OCHA reporting state a combined Nepal and Tibet confirmed death toll of at least 1000 from the August 2026 flash floods, on or before 2026-10-15.
• KKR-20260829-16 (25%, due 2026-10-18) A second, distinct flash-flood or lake-outburst event from the barrier lake in items 43 and 46 will hit Nepal or Tibet, separate from the flooding already reported as of 2026-08-28, between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: True if Nepal disaster authorities, Chinese state media, or two wire services report a new flood or outburst event from this barrier lake, distinct from the ongoing flooding, in that window, checked at the deadline.
• KKR-20260829-18 (78%, due 2026-10-05) Ukrainian authorities report Russian drone or missile impacts inside Kyiv city on at least six separate calendar days between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30. — resolves on: Kyiv City Military Administration or Ukrainian Air Force statements, each carried by Reuters, AFP, or AP, place drone or missile impacts inside Kyiv city on six or more distinct days in the window.
• KKR-20260829-26 (52%, due 2026-10-19) The combined confirmed death toll from the Nepal-Tibet flash floods reaches at least 1000 between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: Official Nepali government figures or OCHA reporting state a combined Nepal and Tibet confirmed death toll of at least 1000 from the August 2026 flash floods, on or before 2026-10-15.
• KKR-20260829-29 (52%, due 2026-10-18) A second, distinct flash-flood or lake-outburst event from the barrier lake in items 43 and 46 will hit Nepal or Tibet, separate from the flooding already reported as of 2026-08-28, between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: True if Nepal disaster authorities, Chinese state media, or two wire services report a new flood or outburst event from this barrier lake, distinct from the ongoing flooding, in that window, checked at the deadline.
• KKR-20260829-31 (53%, due 2026-10-05) Ukrainian authorities report Russian drone or missile impacts inside Kyiv city on at least six separate calendar days between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30. — resolves on: Kyiv City Military Administration or Ukrainian Air Force statements, each carried by Reuters, AFP, or AP, place drone or missile impacts inside Kyiv city on six or more distinct days in the window.
• KKR-20260829-49 (78%, due 2026-10-20) The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds CVE-2026-82078 or CVE-2026-81578 with a date_added value between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog contains an entry for CVE-2026-82078 or CVE-2026-81578 carrying a dateAdded value between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-16 inclusive.
• KKR-20260829-53 (85%, due 2026-10-19) The Ukrainian Air Force reports at least 500 Russian drones and missiles launched in one overnight attack between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: TRUE if a Ukrainian Air Force overnight air-situation report covering a night inside that window states a combined launch total of 500 or more munitions.
• KKR-20260829-68 (33%, due 2026-10-20) The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds CVE-2026-82078 or CVE-2026-81578 with a date_added value between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog contains an entry for CVE-2026-82078 or CVE-2026-81578 carrying a dateAdded value between 2026-08-29 and 2026-10-16 inclusive.
• KKR-20260829-72 (53%, due 2026-10-19) The Ukrainian Air Force reports at least 500 Russian drones and missiles launched in one overnight attack between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: TRUE if a Ukrainian Air Force overnight air-situation report covering a night inside that window states a combined launch total of 500 or more munitions.
• KKR-20260831-03 (32%, due 2026-09-14) Airstrikes on Gaza City, Gaza Strip, result in at least five confirmed civilian casualties between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12. — resolves on: At least five confirmed civilian casualties from airstrikes on Gaza City are reported by at least two independent sources from different hostile sides (IL, PS, AXIS) within the event window, with the first report appearing no later than 2026-09-12.
• KKR-20260831-04 (22%, due 2026-09-20) Iran launches a missile attack on a U.S. military installation in the Persian Gulf region between 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-17. — resolves on: A missile attack on a U.S. military installation in the Persian Gulf region is confirmed by at least two independent sources from different hostile sides (WEST, AXIS, RU) within the event window, with the first report appearing no later than 2026-09-17.
• KKR-20260831-07 (25%, due 2026-10-10) A major flash flood in Nepal results in at least 50 confirmed deaths between 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-08. — resolves on: At least 50 confirmed deaths from a flash flood in Nepal are reported by at least two independent sources from different hostile sides (PS, WEST, RU) within the event window, with the first report appearing no later than 2026-10-08.
• KKR-20260831-10 (20%, due 2026-10-19) A commercial vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz will be attacked, seized, or forcibly diverted, as reported by UKMTO, Reuters, or AP, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: TRUE if UKMTO, Reuters, or AP report an attack, seizure, or forced diversion of a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz within the window; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260831-11 (30%, due 2026-10-14) Niger's military-led government will publicly announce formal charges or the opening of a court-martial against at least one soldier arrested in the late-August 2026 Niamey mutiny attempt, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-12. — resolves on: TRUE if Niger's government, AFP, Reuters, or Al Jazeera report formal charges or a court-martial opened against at least one arrested soldier within the window; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260831-15 (40%, due 2026-09-15) The confirmed death toll from the Northern Cyprus ferry that capsized around 2026-08-30 with roughly 260 to 270 people aboard, six to seven confirmed dead as of 2026-08-30, will reach 15 or more per Cypriot, Turkish, or wire-service reporting, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-13. — resolves on: TRUE if Cypriot or Turkish officials, Reuters, or AP report 15 or more confirmed dead from this ferry capsizing within the window; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260831-17 (38%, due 2026-10-14) German prosecutors will file a formal murder (Mord) charge, rather than a lesser homicide charge, against the suspect arrested for the fatal stabbing of a British woman at Rosenheim train station, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-12. — resolves on: TRUE if Bavarian prosecutors or a German wire service report a Mord charge specifically filed against the suspect within the window; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260831-19 (53%, due 2026-10-19) A commercial vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz will be attacked, seized, or forcibly diverted, as reported by UKMTO, Reuters, or AP, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: TRUE if UKMTO, Reuters, or AP report an attack, seizure, or forced diversion of a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz within the window; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260831-20 (44%, due 2026-10-14) Niger's military-led government will publicly announce formal charges or the opening of a court-martial against at least one soldier arrested in the late-August 2026 Niamey mutiny attempt, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-12. — resolves on: TRUE if Niger's government, AFP, Reuters, or Al Jazeera report formal charges or a court-martial opened against at least one arrested soldier within the window; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260831-24 (52%, due 2026-09-15) The confirmed death toll from the Northern Cyprus ferry that capsized around 2026-08-30 with roughly 260 to 270 people aboard, six to seven confirmed dead as of 2026-08-30, will reach 15 or more per Cypriot, Turkish, or wire-service reporting, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-13. — resolves on: TRUE if Cypriot or Turkish officials, Reuters, or AP report 15 or more confirmed dead from this ferry capsizing within the window; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260831-26 (43%, due 2026-10-14) German prosecutors will file a formal murder (Mord) charge, rather than a lesser homicide charge, against the suspect arrested for the fatal stabbing of a British woman at Rosenheim train station, between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-12. — resolves on: TRUE if Bavarian prosecutors or a German wire service report a Mord charge specifically filed against the suspect within the window; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260831-30 (45%, due 2026-10-19) Manchester Airports Group confirms unauthorized access to its systems in an attributable statement issued between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if a named Manchester Airports Group spokesperson or an official company statement acknowledging unauthorized access to its systems or theft of its data is carried by at least two of BBC News, Reuters, and BleepingComputer, dated between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-16, and verifiable by 2026-10-19.
• KKR-20260831-32 (62%, due 2026-10-19) The confirmed cumulative death toll for the August 2026 Nepal-Tibet flood event reaches 1,000 or more in official figures issued between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if a cumulative confirmed toll of 1,000 or more for this event, attributed to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority of Nepal, the Nepali Ministry of Home Affairs, or Chinese state authorities, is carried by at least two of Reuters, AFP, Al Jazeera, and the Guardian, dated on or before 2026-10-16 and verifiable by 2026-10-19. Missing-persons counts do not count toward the total.
• KKR-20260831-37 (33%, due 2026-10-19) Manchester Airports Group confirms unauthorized access to its systems in an attributable statement issued between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if a named Manchester Airports Group spokesperson or an official company statement acknowledging unauthorized access to its systems or theft of its data is carried by at least two of BBC News, Reuters, and BleepingComputer, dated between 2026-08-31 and 2026-10-16, and verifiable by 2026-10-19.
• KKR-20260831-39 (52%, due 2026-10-19) The confirmed cumulative death toll for the August 2026 Nepal-Tibet flood event reaches 1,000 or more in official figures issued between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if a cumulative confirmed toll of 1,000 or more for this event, attributed to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority of Nepal, the Nepali Ministry of Home Affairs, or Chinese state authorities, is carried by at least two of Reuters, AFP, Al Jazeera, and the Guardian, dated on or before 2026-10-16 and verifiable by 2026-10-19. Missing-persons counts do not count toward the total.
• KKR-20260831-46 (80%, due 2026-10-05) Between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30, at least one Russian missile or drone strike inside Ukraine kills 10 or more people in a single attack, per official Ukrainian figures. — resolves on: TRUE if at least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, or BBC report an official Ukrainian death toll of 10 or more from a single Russian strike occurring between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.
• KKR-20260831-52 (53%, due 2026-10-05) Between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30, at least one Russian missile or drone strike inside Ukraine kills 10 or more people in a single attack, per official Ukrainian figures. — resolves on: TRUE if at least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, or BBC report an official Ukrainian death toll of 10 or more from a single Russian strike occurring between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-30.
• KKR-20260831-54 (35%, due 2026-10-20) A US or Gulf state authority publicly reports a naval mine detected, struck, or cleared in the Strait of Hormuz or its approaches between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: CENTCOM, the US Navy, or a Gulf state navy states that a mine was found, struck, or cleared in the strait or its approaches within the window.
• KKR-20260831-58 (45%, due 2026-10-20) The Nepal disaster authority puts the confirmed death toll from the August 2026 Nepal-Tibet floods at 1500 or more, at some point between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: An NDRRMA situation report or Nepal government figure dated inside the window states 1500 or more confirmed flood deaths in Nepal.
• KKR-20260831-59 (50%, due 2026-10-20) German authorities name a suspect, announce an arrest, or announce a warrant in the Leipzig drone attack between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: The Generalbundesanwalt, the BKA, or Saxony police state that a suspect is named, arrested, or subject to a warrant in the Leipzig drone case within the window.
• KKR-20260831-62 (53%, due 2026-10-20) A US or Gulf state authority publicly reports a naval mine detected, struck, or cleared in the Strait of Hormuz or its approaches between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: CENTCOM, the US Navy, or a Gulf state navy states that a mine was found, struck, or cleared in the strait or its approaches within the window.
• KKR-20260831-66 (52%, due 2026-10-20) The Nepal disaster authority puts the confirmed death toll from the August 2026 Nepal-Tibet floods at 1500 or more, at some point between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: An NDRRMA situation report or Nepal government figure dated inside the window states 1500 or more confirmed flood deaths in Nepal.
• KKR-20260831-67 (43%, due 2026-10-20) German authorities name a suspect, announce an arrest, or announce a warrant in the Leipzig drone attack between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: The Generalbundesanwalt, the BKA, or Saxony police state that a suspect is named, arrested, or subject to a warrant in the Leipzig drone case within the window.
• KKR-20260831-71 (25%, due 2026-10-19) CISA or the FBI publishes an advisory formally attributing the Fire Ant intrusion campaign against Cisco network devices to a China-linked actor, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: Resolves true if CISA.gov or FBI.gov publishes an advisory naming a China-linked actor as responsible for the Fire Ant Cisco-targeting campaign within the window; false if no such advisory appears.
• KKR-20260831-74 (55%, due 2026-09-23) German federal or state authorities publicly name a suspect or announce charges in the Leipzig drone attack on a Ukrainian-linked aircraft, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-21. — resolves on: Resolves true if German federal or state prosecutors or police publicly name a suspect or announce charges in the Leipzig drone-attack case within the window; false if no naming occurs.
• KKR-20260831-78 (33%, due 2026-10-19) CISA or the FBI publishes an advisory formally attributing the Fire Ant intrusion campaign against Cisco network devices to a China-linked actor, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: Resolves true if CISA.gov or FBI.gov publishes an advisory naming a China-linked actor as responsible for the Fire Ant Cisco-targeting campaign within the window; false if no such advisory appears.
• KKR-20260831-81 (44%, due 2026-09-23) German federal or state authorities publicly name a suspect or announce charges in the Leipzig drone attack on a Ukrainian-linked aircraft, between 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-21. — resolves on: Resolves true if German federal or state prosecutors or police publicly name a suspect or announce charges in the Leipzig drone-attack case within the window; false if no naming occurs.
• KKR-20260901-13 (20%, due 2026-10-07) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-81578 results in unauthorized access to a critical infrastructure system. — resolves on: A confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-81578 results in unauthorized access to a critical infrastructure system, as reported by a public source.
• KKR-20260901-15 (30%, due 2026-10-07) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a major wildfire in France causes damage to a wine-producing region as confirmed by Al Jazeera. — resolves on: Al Jazeera publishes a report confirming a major wildfire in France that causes damage to a wine-producing region between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260901-16 (25%, due 2026-10-08) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a cyberattack attributed to Russia-aligned actors targets a U.S. government agency using a previously unreported exploit. — resolves on: A cyberattack attributed to Russia-aligned actors targets a U.S. government agency using a previously unreported exploit, confirmed by at least two independent sources.
• KKR-20260901-17 (10%, due 2026-10-08) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a new political summit involving Russia, Iran, and the U.S. is confirmed by at least two hostile sides. — resolves on: At least two hostile sides (e.g., RU, WEST, AXIS) confirm the existence of a new political summit involving Russia, Iran, and the U.S. between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260901-22 (25%, due 2026-10-19) The US 10-year Treasury yield closes at or above 5.00 percent on any trading day between 2026-09-02 and 2026-10-15. Reference: 4.77 percent on the packet date, 2026-09-01. — resolves on: TRUE if the US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, per the Treasury daily par yield curve or the FRED DGS10 series, closes at or above 5.00 percent on any date in the window. FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260902-19 (25%, due 2026-10-19) The US 10-year Treasury yield closes at or above 5.00 percent on any trading day between 2026-09-02 and 2026-10-15. Reference: 4.77 percent on the packet date, 2026-09-01. — resolves on: TRUE if the US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, per the Treasury daily par yield curve or the FRED DGS10 series, closes at or above 5.00 percent on any date in the window. FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260902-38 (45%, due 2026-10-08) Between 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-29, the S&P 500 index will close above 7,700 points on at least one trading day. — resolves on: The S&P 500 closes at or above 7,700.00 on at least one weekday between 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-29, based on the official market close from a public exchange.
• KKR-20260902-40 (30%, due 2026-10-12) Between 2026-09-27 and 2026-10-03, a new ransomware attack will be confirmed by two or more independent sources targeting a U.S. healthcare provider, resulting in data exposure of over 100,000 patients. — resolves on: At least two independently biased sources (e.g., BleepingComputer, The Hacker News) confirm a ransomware attack on a U.S. healthcare provider between 2026-09-27 and 2026-10-03, with data exposure affecting more than 100,000 patients.
• KKR-20260902-42 (40%, due 2026-10-14) Between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-05, a new political scandal involving a U.S. federal official will be reported by two or more independent outlets, resulting in a formal investigation or resignation. — resolves on: At least two independent outlets (e.g., BBC World, Guardian World, Politico) report a new political scandal involving a U.S. federal official that leads to a formal investigation or resignation by 2026-10-05.
• KKR-20260902-49 (78%, due 2026-09-21) At least one US military strike on a target inside Iranian territory occurring between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-16 is acknowledged by US official channels and reported by Iranian state media. — resolves on: CENTCOM or DoD publicly acknowledges a strike inside Iran occurring in the window, and at least one of IRNA, Tasnim, Press TV reports a strike on Iranian territory in the same window.
• KKR-20260902-50 (55%, due 2026-09-18) A major US grid operator among PJM, MISO, ERCOT, SPP, NYISO, ISO-NE, CAISO declares an Energy Emergency Alert Level 2 or higher effective on a date between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-16. — resolves on: The public notices archive of at least one named operator shows an EEA Level 2 or Level 3 declaration, or equivalent maximum generation emergency, effective inside the window.
• KKR-20260902-53 (70%, due 2026-10-19) The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one SonicWall vulnerability with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog JSON contains at least one entry with vendorProject SonicWall and dateAdded from 2026-09-03 through 2026-10-15 inclusive.
• KKR-20260902-56 (30%, due 2026-10-19) A UN OCHA or Nepal NDRRMA report published between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-15 states a confirmed death toll of 1,500 or more from the 2026 Nepal-Tibet floods. — resolves on: TRUE if an OCHA situation report on ReliefWeb or an NDRRMA bulletin, published in that window, states 1,500 or more confirmed deaths from the 2026 Nepal flood event.
• KKR-20260902-68 (49%, due 2026-09-21) At least one US military strike on a target inside Iranian territory occurring between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-16 is acknowledged by US official channels and reported by Iranian state media. — resolves on: CENTCOM or DoD publicly acknowledges a strike inside Iran occurring in the window, and at least one of IRNA, Tasnim, Press TV reports a strike on Iranian territory in the same window.
• KKR-20260902-69 (36%, due 2026-09-18) A major US grid operator among PJM, MISO, ERCOT, SPP, NYISO, ISO-NE, CAISO declares an Energy Emergency Alert Level 2 or higher effective on a date between 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-16. — resolves on: The public notices archive of at least one named operator shows an EEA Level 2 or Level 3 declaration, or equivalent maximum generation emergency, effective inside the window.
• KKR-20260902-72 (30%, due 2026-10-19) The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one SonicWall vulnerability with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog JSON contains at least one entry with vendorProject SonicWall and dateAdded from 2026-09-03 through 2026-10-15 inclusive.
• KKR-20260902-75 (36%, due 2026-10-19) A UN OCHA or Nepal NDRRMA report published between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-15 states a confirmed death toll of 1,500 or more from the 2026 Nepal-Tibet floods. — resolves on: TRUE if an OCHA situation report on ReliefWeb or an NDRRMA bulletin, published in that window, states 1,500 or more confirmed deaths from the 2026 Nepal flood event.
• KKR-20260903-07 (30%, due 2026-10-19) The combined official confirmed death toll (excluding missing) from the Nepal-Tibet flood disaster reported from late August 2026 reaches at least 1,500 on any date between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-15. Reference: reported passing 1,000 on 2026-09-01. — resolves on: TRUE if Nepal NDRRMA figures, or two of Reuters, AP, AFP citing officials, put the combined confirmed death toll (excluding missing) for the late-August 2026 Nepal-Tibet floods at 1,500 or more on any date from 2026-09-03 through 2026-10-15.
• KKR-20260903-14 (36%, due 2026-10-19) The combined official confirmed death toll (excluding missing) from the Nepal-Tibet flood disaster reported from late August 2026 reaches at least 1,500 on any date between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-15. Reference: reported passing 1,000 on 2026-09-01. — resolves on: TRUE if Nepal NDRRMA figures, or two of Reuters, AP, AFP citing officials, put the combined confirmed death toll (excluding missing) for the late-August 2026 Nepal-Tibet floods at 1,500 or more on any date from 2026-09-03 through 2026-10-15.
• KKR-20260903-15 (25%, due 2026-10-08) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, at least one confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-83548 will be reported by two or more independent sources. — resolves on: At least one confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-83548 is reported by two or more independent sources between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260903-18 (15%, due 2026-10-09) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, Iran will launch a missile strike against a target in Kuwait City, confirmed by at least two independent sources. — resolves on: Iran launches a missile strike against a target in Kuwait City, confirmed by at least two independent sources between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260903-20 (28%, due 2026-10-08) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-48710 will be reported by two or more independent sources. — resolves on: A confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-48710 is reported by two or more independent sources between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260903-21 (18%, due 2026-10-07) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a magnitude 5.5 or higher earthquake will be recorded by the USGS in China. — resolves on: The USGS records a magnitude 5.5 or higher earthquake in China between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260903-22 (22%, due 2026-10-08) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-9586 will be reported by two or more independent sources. — resolves on: A confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-9586 is reported by two or more independent sources between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260903-24 (22%, due 2026-10-05) A named Ukrainian government body announces disciplinary action, criminal charges, or a completed inquiry finding against personnel involved in the September 2, 2026 SBU-HUR shootout in Kyiv, with the announcement occurring between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-03. — resolves on: A Ukrainian official body publicly announces a named finding, charge, or disciplinary measure tied to the incident, occurring between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-03, confirmed by two outlets by 2026-10-05.
• KKR-20260903-28 (25%, due 2026-10-19) Leon Black either appears for a rescheduled House Oversight Committee deposition or is formally held in contempt of Congress in connection with the Epstein-probe subpoena, between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-17. — resolves on: House Oversight Committee records or a wire-service report confirm either a completed Leon Black deposition or a committee contempt vote or referral occurring between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-17, checked by 2026-10-19.
• KKR-20260903-33 (40%, due 2026-10-06) The US Department of Defense announces the death of at least one US service member from hostile action in the CENTCOM area of responsibility, with a date of death between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-01. — resolves on: A casualty release on defense.gov identifies at least one US service member whose death is attributed to hostile action or enemy attack in the CENTCOM area of responsibility, with date of death 2026-09-04 through 2026-10-01 inclusive.
• KKR-20260903-38 (65%, due 2026-10-07) Between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-04, the government or state news agency of Qatar (QNA) or Bahrain (BNA) confirms an Iranian missile or drone striking, or being intercepted over, its national territory. — resolves on: Resolves TRUE on official Qatari or Bahraini government or state-agency confirmation of an Iranian projectile striking or intercepted over its territory within the window, corroborated by at least one international wire service; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260903-42 (40%, due 2026-10-06) The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry whose vendor, product, or vulnerability name field contains Elementor, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-02 inclusive. — resolves on: Resolves TRUE if the public CISA KEV JSON feed contains an entry naming Elementor with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-02 inclusive; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260903-55 (49%, due 2026-10-05) A named Ukrainian government body announces disciplinary action, criminal charges, or a completed inquiry finding against personnel involved in the September 2, 2026 SBU-HUR shootout in Kyiv, with the announcement occurring between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-03. — resolves on: A Ukrainian official body publicly announces a named finding, charge, or disciplinary measure tied to the incident, occurring between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-03, confirmed by two outlets by 2026-10-05.
• KKR-20260903-59 (35%, due 2026-10-19) Leon Black either appears for a rescheduled House Oversight Committee deposition or is formally held in contempt of Congress in connection with the Epstein-probe subpoena, between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-17. — resolves on: House Oversight Committee records or a wire-service report confirm either a completed Leon Black deposition or a committee contempt vote or referral occurring between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-17, checked by 2026-10-19.
• KKR-20260903-64 (49%, due 2026-10-06) The US Department of Defense announces the death of at least one US service member from hostile action in the CENTCOM area of responsibility, with a date of death between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-01. — resolves on: A casualty release on defense.gov identifies at least one US service member whose death is attributed to hostile action or enemy attack in the CENTCOM area of responsibility, with date of death 2026-09-04 through 2026-10-01 inclusive.
• KKR-20260903-69 (49%, due 2026-10-07) Between 2026-09-04 and 2026-10-04, the government or state news agency of Qatar (QNA) or Bahrain (BNA) confirms an Iranian missile or drone striking, or being intercepted over, its national territory. — resolves on: Resolves TRUE on official Qatari or Bahraini government or state-agency confirmation of an Iranian projectile striking or intercepted over its territory within the window, corroborated by at least one international wire service; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260903-73 (30%, due 2026-10-06) The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry whose vendor, product, or vulnerability name field contains Elementor, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-02 inclusive. — resolves on: Resolves TRUE if the public CISA KEV JSON feed contains an entry naming Elementor with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-02 inclusive; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260904-06 (18%, due 2026-10-05) A political scandal involving a U.S. presidential candidate leads to a formal indictment by a federal grand jury between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24. — resolves on: A federal grand jury issues a formal indictment against a U.S. presidential candidate, confirmed by at least two independent sources (e.g., Guardian World, NPR News) between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260904-07 (15%, due 2026-10-05) Iran announces a new military offensive in the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, confirmed by at least two hostile sides (AXIS, WEST). — resolves on: At least two hostile sides (AXIS, WEST) confirm Iran announces a new military offensive in the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, as reported in corroborating sources.
• KKR-20260904-18 (14%, due 2026-09-22) GDACS will upgrade at least one of its four Green forest-fire alerts logged 2026-09-04 (Mozambique event 1031563, DR Congo event 1031500, Zambia event 1031562, Ethiopia event 1031529) to Orange or Red between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-19. — resolves on: TRUE if the GDACS page for any of the four listed events shows Orange or Red level between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-19; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260904-30 (28%, due 2026-09-29) Between 2026-09-11 and 2026-09-25 the NSW Supreme Court sentences Daniel Billings for the murder of Molly Ticehurst to life imprisonment or to a non-parole period of 30 years or more. — resolves on: The sentencing judgment (NSW Caselaw, R v Billings) or reporting by ABC and AAP shows a sentence handed down within the window that is life imprisonment or carries a non-parole period of at least 30 years.
• KKR-20260904-34 (12%, due 2026-10-20) The governments of Russia and Ukraine both announce a ceasefire or a mutual halt of long-range strikes with an effective date between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if Reuters and AP each carry statements from both the Kremlin and the Ukrainian presidential office confirming the same ceasefire or strike-halt agreement effective within the window.
• KKR-20260904-35 (60%, due 2026-10-06) The USGS ComCat catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or greater within 150 km of the 2026-09-04 M6.3 epicenter near Nikolski, Alaska, with origin time between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-02. — resolves on: TRUE if a ComCat query centered on the M6.3 event coordinates, radius 150 km, minimum magnitude 5.0, returns at least one event with origin time inside the window.
• KKR-20260904-36 (25%, due 2026-10-20) Argentina publishes in the Boletin Oficial a decree or resolution imposing sanctions or restrictive economic measures aimed at the Falkland Islands, companies operating there, or UK entities over the islands, dated between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if the Boletin Oficial de la Republica Argentina carries such an instrument with publication date inside the window; verbal threats without a published instrument do not count.
• KKR-20260904-42 (18%, due 2026-10-19) USGS catalogs an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 300 km of event us7000tdvt with origin time between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: TRUE if a USGS ComCat query returns an M6.0 or greater event within 300 km of the us7000tdvt epicenter with origin time in that window. Adjudicated 2026-10-19.
• KKR-20260904-48 (36%, due 2026-09-22) GDACS will upgrade at least one of its four Green forest-fire alerts logged 2026-09-04 (Mozambique event 1031563, DR Congo event 1031500, Zambia event 1031562, Ethiopia event 1031529) to Orange or Red between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-19. — resolves on: TRUE if the GDACS page for any of the four listed events shows Orange or Red level between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-19; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260904-60 (36%, due 2026-09-29) Between 2026-09-11 and 2026-09-25 the NSW Supreme Court sentences Daniel Billings for the murder of Molly Ticehurst to life imprisonment or to a non-parole period of 30 years or more. — resolves on: The sentencing judgment (NSW Caselaw, R v Billings) or reporting by ABC and AAP shows a sentence handed down within the window that is life imprisonment or carries a non-parole period of at least 30 years.
• KKR-20260904-64 (49%, due 2026-10-20) The governments of Russia and Ukraine both announce a ceasefire or a mutual halt of long-range strikes with an effective date between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if Reuters and AP each carry statements from both the Kremlin and the Ukrainian presidential office confirming the same ceasefire or strike-halt agreement effective within the window.
• KKR-20260904-65 (36%, due 2026-10-06) The USGS ComCat catalog records at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or greater within 150 km of the 2026-09-04 M6.3 epicenter near Nikolski, Alaska, with origin time between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-02. — resolves on: TRUE if a ComCat query centered on the M6.3 event coordinates, radius 150 km, minimum magnitude 5.0, returns at least one event with origin time inside the window.
• KKR-20260904-66 (35%, due 2026-10-20) Argentina publishes in the Boletin Oficial a decree or resolution imposing sanctions or restrictive economic measures aimed at the Falkland Islands, companies operating there, or UK entities over the islands, dated between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if the Boletin Oficial de la Republica Argentina carries such an instrument with publication date inside the window; verbal threats without a published instrument do not count.
• KKR-20260904-72 (36%, due 2026-10-19) USGS catalogs an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater within 300 km of event us7000tdvt with origin time between 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: TRUE if a USGS ComCat query returns an M6.0 or greater event within 300 km of the us7000tdvt epicenter with origin time in that window. Adjudicated 2026-10-19.
• KKR-20260905-03 (55%, due 2026-10-05) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28, the US dollar will trade above 1.17 against the euro on at least one trading day. — resolves on: The EUR/USD exchange rate exceeds 1.17 on at least one trading day between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28, based on the official market close from a major exchange.
• KKR-20260905-05 (35%, due 2026-10-05) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28, at least one new forest fire in Africa will be reported by GDACS Alerts with a green or yellow alert level. — resolves on: GDACS Alerts reports at least one new forest fire in Africa with a green or yellow alert level between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28.
• KKR-20260905-06 (20%, due 2026-10-05) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28, a major cyberattack exploiting the Citrix NetScaler auth bypass vulnerability will be confirmed by two or more independent sources. — resolves on: At least two independently biased sources (e.g., western, iranian, pro-ukraine, pro-russia) confirm a cyberattack exploiting the Citrix NetScaler auth bypass vulnerability (CVE-2026-XXXX) between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28.
• KKR-20260905-07 (15%, due 2026-10-05) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28, the US will launch a new military operation in the Middle East targeting Iranian proxies, confirmed by at least two independent outlets. — resolves on: At least two independently biased outlets (e.g., western, iranian, pro-ukraine, pro-russia) confirm a new US military operation in the Middle East targeting Iranian proxies between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28.
• KKR-20260905-08 (45%, due 2026-10-05) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28, a new political scandal involving a US government official will be reported by two or more major news outlets with differing political leanings. — resolves on: At least two major news outlets with differing political leanings (e.g., BBC World, Guardian World, CNBC Top News, Al Jazeera) report a new political scandal involving a US government official between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-28.
• KKR-20260905-13 (40%, due 2026-09-14) Between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12, at least one forest fire in Africa will be reported by GDACS Alerts with a green alert level. — resolves on: At least one forest fire in Africa is reported by GDACS Alerts with a green alert level between 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-12.
• KKR-20260906-02 (9%, due 2026-10-19) Russia and Ukraine, or their authorized representatives, publicly announce a signed ceasefire or peace agreement covering the active front line, following the 2026-09-05 arrival of US envoys Witkoff and Kushner in Moscow, at any point between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: TRUE if at least two of Reuters, AP, BBC, or a joint Russian-Ukrainian government statement confirm a signed ceasefire between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-15, confirmed as of 2026-10-19; FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260906-06 (13%, due 2026-09-21) GDACS raises its alert level for Tropical Cyclone TWENTYTHREE-26 (event ID 1001319) from Green to Orange or Red before the system dissipates, at any point between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-19. Reference: Green alert as of 2026-09-04. — resolves on: TRUE if the GDACS event page for event ID 1001319 shows an Orange or Red alert level at any point between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-19, checked as of 2026-09-21; FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260906-24 (30%, due 2026-10-22) Yemeni government or Saudi-led coalition forces announce the capture of a named district in Houthi-held Hodeidah, al-Jawf, or Saada governorate, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-19. — resolves on: TRUE if a government or coalition claim of capturing a named district in those three governorates in the window is corroborated by Houthi-aligned media or by Reuters, AFP, or AP.
• KKR-20260906-29 (49%, due 2026-10-19) Russia and Ukraine, or their authorized representatives, publicly announce a signed ceasefire or peace agreement covering the active front line, following the 2026-09-05 arrival of US envoys Witkoff and Kushner in Moscow, at any point between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: TRUE if at least two of Reuters, AP, BBC, or a joint Russian-Ukrainian government statement confirm a signed ceasefire between 2026-09-06 and 2026-10-15, confirmed as of 2026-10-19; FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260906-33 (36%, due 2026-09-21) GDACS raises its alert level for Tropical Cyclone TWENTYTHREE-26 (event ID 1001319) from Green to Orange or Red before the system dissipates, at any point between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-19. Reference: Green alert as of 2026-09-04. — resolves on: TRUE if the GDACS event page for event ID 1001319 shows an Orange or Red alert level at any point between 2026-09-06 and 2026-09-19, checked as of 2026-09-21; FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260906-51 (49%, due 2026-10-22) Yemeni government or Saudi-led coalition forces announce the capture of a named district in Houthi-held Hodeidah, al-Jawf, or Saada governorate, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-19. — resolves on: TRUE if a government or coalition claim of capturing a named district in those three governorates in the window is corroborated by Houthi-aligned media or by Reuters, AFP, or AP.
• KKR-20260906-55 (25%, due 2026-10-06) Between 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-29, a cyberattack exploiting an unpatched vulnerability in a critical infrastructure system is confirmed by CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value in that window. — resolves on: The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-29 for a vulnerability exploited in a critical infrastructure system.
• KKR-20260906-56 (35%, due 2026-10-07) Between 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-30, a volcanic eruption in Indonesia causes flight cancellations at Jakarta International Airport, confirmed by at least two independent sources (one from BBC, one from Guardian). — resolves on: The GDACS Alerts system carries a report with eventtype=ER between 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-30 for a volcanic eruption in Indonesia causing flight cancellations at Jakarta International Airport, confirmed by at least two independent sources (one from BBC, one from Guardian).
• KKR-20260906-57 (40%, due 2026-10-09) Between 2026-09-25 and 2026-10-02, a new political development in the U.S. involves a public statement by Jared Kushner or Steve Witkoff on Ukraine peace talks, confirmed by at least two independent sources (one from Guardian, one from BBC). — resolves on: A public statement by Jared Kushner or Steve Witkoff on Ukraine peace talks is confirmed by at least two independent sources (one from Guardian, one from BBC) between 2026-09-25 and 2026-10-02.
• KKR-20260906-58 (30%, due 2026-10-10) Between 2026-09-26 and 2026-10-03, a new earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or higher is recorded in the Solomon Islands, confirmed by USGS Significant Quakes. — resolves on: The USGS Significant Quakes system carries a report with magnitude ≥5.5 and location in the Solomon Islands between 2026-09-26 and 2026-10-03.
• KKR-20260906-59 (28%, due 2026-10-11) Between 2026-09-27 and 2026-10-04, a new phishing campaign using invisible Unicode characters is reported by BleepingComputer and confirmed by The Hacker News. — resolves on: BleepingComputer reports a new phishing campaign using invisible Unicode characters between 2026-09-27 and 2026-10-04, and The Hacker News confirms it within 48 hours.
• KKR-20260906-60 (32%, due 2026-10-12) Between 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-05, a new political scandal involving a U.S. government official is reported by Politico and confirmed by Guardian World. — resolves on: A new political scandal involving a U.S. government official is reported by Politico and confirmed by Guardian World between 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-05.
• KKR-20260906-61 (35%, due 2026-10-13) Between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-06, a new wildfire in Brazil is reported by GDACS Alerts with eventtype=WF and confirmed by at least two independent sources (one from BBC, one from Guardian). — resolves on: The GDACS Alerts system carries a report with eventtype=WF for a new wildfire in Brazil between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-06, confirmed by at least two independent sources (one from BBC, one from Guardian).
• KKR-20260906-62 (20%, due 2026-10-14) Between 2026-09-30 and 2026-10-07, a new cyberattack on a government system is confirmed by CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value in that window. — resolves on: The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-09-30 and 2026-10-07 for a vulnerability exploited in a government system.
• KKR-20260906-74 (35%, due 2026-10-15) Between 2026-09-13 and 2026-10-13, a further eruption of Mount Anak Krakatau will trigger a new suspension of flight operations at Soekarno-Hatta International Airport near Jakarta, following the multi-airport disruption on 2026-09-06. — resolves on: TRUE if Angkasa Pura, Indonesia's transport ministry, or a NOTAM confirms a new Anak Krakatau ash suspension at Soekarno-Hatta, corroborated by a wire service, between 2026-09-13 and 2026-10-13. FALSE otherwise by 2026-10-15.
• KKR-20260906-82 (60%, due 2026-10-20) The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry for the Adobe Commerce or Magento vulnerability disclosed 2026-09-05, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: The public CISA KEV JSON feed contains an entry naming Adobe Commerce or Magento with dateAdded between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-16 inclusive.
• KKR-20260906-91 (60%, due 2026-10-21) US and Iranian forces exchange at least one further direct kinetic strike on a vessel or maritime target in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Strait of Hormuz, occurring between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if a strike in that window is reported by at least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, and BBC, and is acknowledged by either US Central Command or Iranian state media.
• KKR-20260906-100 (36%, due 2026-10-15) Between 2026-09-13 and 2026-10-13, a further eruption of Mount Anak Krakatau will trigger a new suspension of flight operations at Soekarno-Hatta International Airport near Jakarta, following the multi-airport disruption on 2026-09-06. — resolves on: TRUE if Angkasa Pura, Indonesia's transport ministry, or a NOTAM confirms a new Anak Krakatau ash suspension at Soekarno-Hatta, corroborated by a wire service, between 2026-09-13 and 2026-10-13. FALSE otherwise by 2026-10-15.
• KKR-20260906-108 (30%, due 2026-10-20) The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry for the Adobe Commerce or Magento vulnerability disclosed 2026-09-05, with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: The public CISA KEV JSON feed contains an entry naming Adobe Commerce or Magento with dateAdded between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-16 inclusive.
• KKR-20260906-117 (49%, due 2026-10-21) US and Iranian forces exchange at least one further direct kinetic strike on a vessel or maritime target in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Strait of Hormuz, occurring between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if a strike in that window is reported by at least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, and BBC, and is acknowledged by either US Central Command or Iranian state media.
• KKR-20260907-16 (25%, due 2026-10-22) Following the report of a Telerik UI padding-oracle bug chained to unauthenticated remote code execution, the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog will add a Telerik UI entry between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-19. — resolves on: TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog carries a dateAdded value for a Telerik UI CVE falling within the window; else FALSE.
• KKR-20260907-17 (40%, due 2026-10-15) Amid reports questioning whether Iran can enforce a restricted zone in the Strait of Hormuz, the government of Iran or the IRGC Navy will formally declare a named restricted or exclusion zone in the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-12. — resolves on: TRUE if Iranian state media, meaning IRNA, Tasnim, or Mehr, and at least one of Reuters, AP, or AFP both report a formally declared, named Hormuz restricted zone within the window; else FALSE.
• KKR-20260907-19 (30%, due 2026-10-15) Reference: the packet dated 2026-09-07 reports more than 1,300 confirmed dead in the Nepal flooding. The cumulative confirmed death toll reported by disaster authorities in Nepal will reach or exceed 1,500 between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-12. — resolves on: TRUE if the NDRRMA of Nepal, a Nepal government source, or a wire service, AP, Reuters, or AFP, reports a cumulative confirmed death toll at or above 1,500 within the window; else FALSE.
• KKR-20260907-24 (40%, due 2026-10-02) The Israeli military conducts at least one airstrike inside Beirut municipality or its southern suburbs (Dahiyeh) between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-30. — resolves on: An IDF statement claims a strike inside Beirut municipality or Dahiyeh (Haret Hreik, Burj al-Barajneh, Ghobeiry, Chiyah, Laylaki) and the Lebanese National News Agency reports the same strike, both dated 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-30. Strikes elsewhere do not count.
• KKR-20260907-38 (45%, due 2026-10-16) Israeli strikes in Lebanon kill at least 25 people within a single 24-hour period between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-12. — resolves on: TRUE if two or more of Reuters, AFP, and AP carry a Lebanese Health Ministry figure of 25 or more killed by Israeli strikes in Lebanon over one 24-hour period inside the window.
• KKR-20260907-44 (30%, due 2026-10-22) Following the report of a Telerik UI padding-oracle bug chained to unauthenticated remote code execution, the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog will add a Telerik UI entry between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-19. — resolves on: TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog carries a dateAdded value for a Telerik UI CVE falling within the window; else FALSE.
• KKR-20260907-45 (49%, due 2026-10-15) Amid reports questioning whether Iran can enforce a restricted zone in the Strait of Hormuz, the government of Iran or the IRGC Navy will formally declare a named restricted or exclusion zone in the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-12. — resolves on: TRUE if Iranian state media, meaning IRNA, Tasnim, or Mehr, and at least one of Reuters, AP, or AFP both report a formally declared, named Hormuz restricted zone within the window; else FALSE.
• KKR-20260907-47 (36%, due 2026-10-15) Reference: the packet dated 2026-09-07 reports more than 1,300 confirmed dead in the Nepal flooding. The cumulative confirmed death toll reported by disaster authorities in Nepal will reach or exceed 1,500 between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-12. — resolves on: TRUE if the NDRRMA of Nepal, a Nepal government source, or a wire service, AP, Reuters, or AFP, reports a cumulative confirmed death toll at or above 1,500 within the window; else FALSE.
• KKR-20260907-52 (49%, due 2026-10-02) The Israeli military conducts at least one airstrike inside Beirut municipality or its southern suburbs (Dahiyeh) between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-30. — resolves on: An IDF statement claims a strike inside Beirut municipality or Dahiyeh (Haret Hreik, Burj al-Barajneh, Ghobeiry, Chiyah, Laylaki) and the Lebanese National News Agency reports the same strike, both dated 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-30. Strikes elsewhere do not count.
• KKR-20260907-66 (49%, due 2026-10-16) Israeli strikes in Lebanon kill at least 25 people within a single 24-hour period between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-12. — resolves on: TRUE if two or more of Reuters, AFP, and AP carry a Lebanese Health Ministry figure of 25 or more killed by Israeli strikes in Lebanon over one 24-hour period inside the window.
• KKR-20260908-02 (15%, due 2026-10-08) Between 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-30, the CISA KEV catalog adds at least one new vulnerability with a CVSS score of 9.0 or higher that is actively exploited in the wild. — resolves on: The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-30 for a vulnerability with a CVSS score of 9.0 or higher and a 'Status' of 'Exploited in the Wild'.
• KKR-20260908-03 (10%, due 2026-10-09) Between 2026-09-24 and 2026-10-01, a major earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or higher occurs in the Pacific Northwest region (Washington, Oregon, or Northern California). — resolves on: The USGS Significant Quakes feed records an earthquake with magnitude ≥6.0 and location within the Pacific Northwest (latitude 39.0-49.0, longitude -124.0 to -116.0) between 2026-09-24 and 2026-10-01.
• KKR-20260908-04 (20%, due 2026-10-10) Between 2026-09-25 and 2026-10-02, a new political scandal involving a U.S. federal official is confirmed by at least two independent news outlets (e.g., Guardian, BBC, Al Jazeera) and results in a formal investigation by a congressional committee. — resolves on: At least two independent news outlets (Guardian World, BBC World, Al Jazeera) report a new political scandal involving a U.S. federal official, and a U.S. congressional committee publicly announces a formal investigation into the matter between 2026-09-25 and 2026-10-02.
• KKR-20260908-06 (12%, due 2026-10-13) Between 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-05, a major wildfire in Australia burns over 100,000 hectares and is confirmed by the GDACS Alerts feed. — resolves on: The GDACS Alerts feed records a wildfire event in Australia with a burned area of at least 100,000 hectares between 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-05.
• KKR-20260908-07 (22%, due 2026-10-14) Between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-06, a new economic policy shift in Canada results in a 3% or greater increase in the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar at the close of a trading day. — resolves on: The exchange rate for the Canadian dollar (CAD) against the U.S. dollar (USD) reaches or exceeds 1.4000 at the close of any trading day between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-06.
• KKR-20260908-08 (8%, due 2026-10-15) Between 2026-09-30 and 2026-10-07, a new criminal indictment is issued by a U.S. federal court against a high-profile political figure, confirmed by a public docket entry in the PACER system. — resolves on: A public docket entry in the PACER system (https://pacer.uscourts.gov) confirms a new criminal indictment against a U.S. federal political figure between 2026-09-30 and 2026-10-07.
• KKR-20260908-18 (37%, due 2026-10-12) French police publicly announce at least one arrest of a suspect linked to the 2026-09-08 theft of paintings from the Musee Renoir in Cagnes-sur-Mer, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-08. — resolves on: A mainstream outlet reports French authorities have arrested and identified a suspect connected to the Cagnes-sur-Mer Renoir Museum theft, on or before 2026-10-08.
• KKR-20260908-19 (58%, due 2026-10-01) A named humanitarian body publicly reports the closure or suspension of services at one or more specific Sudanese hospitals due to healthcare system collapse, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-29. — resolves on: MSF, WHO, or another named humanitarian or UN body states in public reporting that a specific named Sudanese hospital or facility suspended or ceased operating due to collapse, within the window.
• KKR-20260908-23 (36%, due 2026-10-12) French police publicly announce at least one arrest of a suspect linked to the 2026-09-08 theft of paintings from the Musee Renoir in Cagnes-sur-Mer, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-10-08. — resolves on: A mainstream outlet reports French authorities have arrested and identified a suspect connected to the Cagnes-sur-Mer Renoir Museum theft, on or before 2026-10-08.
• KKR-20260908-24 (36%, due 2026-10-01) A named humanitarian body publicly reports the closure or suspension of services at one or more specific Sudanese hospitals due to healthcare system collapse, between 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-29. — resolves on: MSF, WHO, or another named humanitarian or UN body states in public reporting that a specific named Sudanese hospital or facility suspended or ceased operating due to collapse, within the window.
• KKR-20260909-01 (25%, due 2026-10-06) Between 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-29, the CISA KEV catalog includes at least one new vulnerability with a CVSS score of 10.0 or higher. — resolves on: The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-29 for a vulnerability with a CVSS score of 10.0 or higher.
• KKR-20260909-03 (20%, due 2026-10-10) Between 2026-09-27 and 2026-10-03, a new political scandal involving a U.S. federal official is confirmed by two independent outlets (e.g., Guardian World, NPR News). — resolves on: Two independent outlets (e.g., Guardian World, NPR News) confirm a political scandal involving a U.S. federal official between 2026-09-27 and 2026-10-03.
• KKR-20260909-04 (18%, due 2026-10-12) Between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-05, a new terrorist attack with at least five fatalities occurs in the Middle East, confirmed by two or more independent outlets from hostile sides. — resolves on: Two or more independent outlets from hostile sides (e.g., AXIS, WEST, PS) confirm a terrorist attack in the Middle East with at least five fatalities between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-05.
• KKR-20260909-21 (20%, due 2026-10-20) Following the public ShieldCrash proof-of-concept, CISA adds at least one Microsoft Defender or Malware Protection Engine vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a date-added between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: The CISA KEV catalog JSON feed contains an entry with vendorProject Microsoft whose product or vulnerabilityName names Defender or Malware Protection Engine, with dateAdded between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-16 inclusive.
• KKR-20260909-23 (35%, due 2026-10-21) Brent crude spot reaches 110.00 dollars per barrel or higher on at least one trading day between 2026-09-10 and 2026-10-09. Reference: Brent 101.13 on the packet date. — resolves on: FRED series DCOILBRENTEU (EIA Europe Brent spot price FOB) records a daily value at or above 110.00 for at least one date between 2026-09-10 and 2026-10-09 inclusive.
• KKR-20260909-25 (40%, due 2026-10-06) Between 2026-09-10 and 2026-10-02, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and US President Donald Trump hold a phone call or in-person bilateral meeting, as confirmed by an official German or US government readout. — resolves on: The German federal government (bundesregierung.de or the government spokesperson) or the White House publishes a readout or statement confirming a Merz-Trump call or bilateral meeting held between 2026-09-10 and 2026-10-02.
• KKR-20260909-29 (28%, due 2026-10-20) Following the public ShieldCrash proof-of-concept, CISA adds at least one Microsoft Defender or Malware Protection Engine vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a date-added between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: The CISA KEV catalog JSON feed contains an entry with vendorProject Microsoft whose product or vulnerabilityName names Defender or Malware Protection Engine, with dateAdded between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-16 inclusive.
• KKR-20260909-31 (26%, due 2026-10-21) Brent crude spot reaches 110.00 dollars per barrel or higher on at least one trading day between 2026-09-10 and 2026-10-09. Reference: Brent 101.13 on the packet date. — resolves on: FRED series DCOILBRENTEU (EIA Europe Brent spot price FOB) records a daily value at or above 110.00 for at least one date between 2026-09-10 and 2026-10-09 inclusive.
• KKR-20260909-33 (35%, due 2026-10-06) Between 2026-09-10 and 2026-10-02, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and US President Donald Trump hold a phone call or in-person bilateral meeting, as confirmed by an official German or US government readout. — resolves on: The German federal government (bundesregierung.de or the government spokesperson) or the White House publishes a readout or statement confirming a Merz-Trump call or bilateral meeting held between 2026-09-10 and 2026-10-02.
• KKR-20260909-38 (65%, due 2026-10-13) Between 2026-09-10 and 2026-10-09, the Government of Canada announces new retaliatory trade measures responding to the US import ban on Canadian goods disclosed 2026-09-09. — resolves on: TRUE if an official Government of Canada announcement of retaliatory trade measures made in the window is reported by at least two of Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, or CBC; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260909-41 (65%, due 2026-10-20) At least one Microsoft CVE from the scheduled October 2026 Patch Tuesday release of 2026-10-13 is added to the CISA KEV catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-10-13 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if the public CISA KEV JSON shows a Microsoft-vendor CVE published 2026-10-13 with dateAdded between 2026-10-13 and 2026-10-16 inclusive; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260909-46 (26%, due 2026-10-13) Between 2026-09-10 and 2026-10-09, the Government of Canada announces new retaliatory trade measures responding to the US import ban on Canadian goods disclosed 2026-09-09. — resolves on: TRUE if an official Government of Canada announcement of retaliatory trade measures made in the window is reported by at least two of Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, or CBC; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260909-49 (28%, due 2026-10-20) At least one Microsoft CVE from the scheduled October 2026 Patch Tuesday release of 2026-10-13 is added to the CISA KEV catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-10-13 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if the public CISA KEV JSON shows a Microsoft-vendor CVE published 2026-10-13 with dateAdded between 2026-10-13 and 2026-10-16 inclusive; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260910-03 (35%, due 2026-10-05) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a ransomware attack exploiting CVE-2026-20079 will be confirmed by CISA. — resolves on: CISA issues a public advisory confirming a ransomware attack exploiting CVE-2026-20079 between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260910-06 (20%, due 2026-10-08) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a tropical cyclone named NORBERT-26 will cause a green alert in GDACS with population affected exceeding 100,000. — resolves on: GDACS issues a green alert for tropical cyclone NORBERT-26 between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24 with a population affected estimate exceeding 100,000.
• KKR-20260910-07 (55%, due 2026-10-09) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, Trump will publicly promise a $5,000 dividend to all U.S. adults if the GOP wins the 2026 midterm elections. — resolves on: A public statement by Donald Trump between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24 confirms a $5,000 dividend for all U.S. adults contingent on a GOP midterm victory.
• KKR-20260910-09 (30%, due 2026-10-11) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a cargo ship fire in China will result in at least 25 fatalities as confirmed by Al Jazeera, BBC World, and Deutsche Welle. — resolves on: Al Jazeera, BBC World, and Deutsche Welle each publish a report confirming at least 25 fatalities from a cargo ship fire in China between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260910-12 (30%, due 2026-09-19) Between 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-16, a confirmed natural disaster (flood, fire, or earthquake) will result in at least 50 fatalities in a country outside the United States. — resolves on: A confirmed natural disaster (flood, fire, or earthquake) results in at least 50 fatalities in a country outside the United States between 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-16.
• KKR-20260910-13 (15%, due 2026-09-19) Between 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-16, a political figure in the United States will be indicted on federal corruption charges. — resolves on: A political figure in the United States is indicted on federal corruption charges between 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-16.
• KKR-20260910-17 (18%, due 2026-10-19) Anthropic or another frontier AI developer discloses a new AI-orchestrated hacking incident, distinct from the Claude Opus 4.6 incident reported 2026-09-10, between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-17. — resolves on: TRUE if a frontier AI developer's official disclosure, or two outlets among Reuters, Bloomberg, The Hacker News, and BleepingComputer, report a new incident in the window distinct from the 2026-09-10 one.
• KKR-20260910-19 (12%, due 2026-10-19) A court order or legislative action reinstates the 2025 Republican-redrawn congressional map for Missouri's November 2026 election, occurring between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-15 (Reference: the US Supreme Court twice declined to reinstate that map, on 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-10). — resolves on: TRUE if the Missouri Secretary of State, or two wire services among AP and Reuters, confirm a reinstatement of the 2025 map for the November election within the window.
• KKR-20260910-23 (28%, due 2026-10-19) Anthropic or another frontier AI developer discloses a new AI-orchestrated hacking incident, distinct from the Claude Opus 4.6 incident reported 2026-09-10, between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-17. — resolves on: TRUE if a frontier AI developer's official disclosure, or two outlets among Reuters, Bloomberg, The Hacker News, and BleepingComputer, report a new incident in the window distinct from the 2026-09-10 one.
• KKR-20260910-25 (35%, due 2026-10-19) A court order or legislative action reinstates the 2025 Republican-redrawn congressional map for Missouri's November 2026 election, occurring between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-15 (Reference: the US Supreme Court twice declined to reinstate that map, on 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-10). — resolves on: TRUE if the Missouri Secretary of State, or two wire services among AP and Reuters, confirm a reinstatement of the 2025 map for the November election within the window.
• KKR-20260910-31 (75%, due 2026-10-13) A putative class action over the IDScan driver license breach is filed against IDScan.net in a US federal district court between 2026-09-10 and 2026-10-09. — resolves on: A complaint pleaded as a class action, naming IDScan.net or its parent or affiliate as defendant and referencing the driver license data breach, appears on CourtListener or PACER with a filing date between 2026-09-10 and 2026-10-09.
• KKR-20260910-36 (15%, due 2026-09-23) GDACS raises tropical cyclone NORBERT-26 (eventid 1001320) to Orange or Red alert level at some point between 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-20. — resolves on: The GDACS event page for tropical cyclone NORBERT-26 (eventtype TC, eventid 1001320) lists at least one episode dated between 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-20 with alert level Orange or Red.
• KKR-20260910-41 (28%, due 2026-10-13) A putative class action over the IDScan driver license breach is filed against IDScan.net in a US federal district court between 2026-09-10 and 2026-10-09. — resolves on: A complaint pleaded as a class action, naming IDScan.net or its parent or affiliate as defendant and referencing the driver license data breach, appears on CourtListener or PACER with a filing date between 2026-09-10 and 2026-10-09.
• KKR-20260910-46 (31%, due 2026-09-23) GDACS raises tropical cyclone NORBERT-26 (eventid 1001320) to Orange or Red alert level at some point between 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-20. — resolves on: The GDACS event page for tropical cyclone NORBERT-26 (eventtype TC, eventid 1001320) lists at least one episode dated between 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-20 with alert level Orange or Red.
• KKR-20260910-61 (75%, due 2026-10-22) CISA adds at least one Microsoft vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-10-13, October Patch Tuesday, and 2026-10-20. — resolves on: TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed lists at least one entry with vendorProject Microsoft and a dateAdded value between 2026-10-13 and 2026-10-20 inclusive. FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260910-67 (28%, due 2026-10-22) CISA adds at least one Microsoft vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog between 2026-10-13, October Patch Tuesday, and 2026-10-20. — resolves on: TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed lists at least one entry with vendorProject Microsoft and a dateAdded value between 2026-10-13 and 2026-10-20 inclusive. FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260911-02 (20%, due 2026-09-26) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a Green flood alert is issued for Spain by GDACS and remains active through 2026-09-24. — resolves on: The GDACS Alerts system carries a Green flood alert for Spain with a status of active on 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260911-07 (40%, due 2026-09-20) Between 2026-09-11 and 2026-09-17, at least one new vulnerability in the CISA KEV catalog will be linked to an active exploit in a critical infrastructure system. — resolves on: Between 2026-09-11 and 2026-09-17, at least one vulnerability listed in the CISA KEV catalog is actively exploited in a critical infrastructure system.
• KKR-20260911-12 (45%, due 2026-09-26) Between 2026-09-17 and 2026-09-23, at least one new cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-67277 will be reported by two or more independent outlets. — resolves on: Between 2026-09-17 and 2026-09-23, at least one cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-67277 is reported by two or more independent outlets.
• KKR-20260911-13 (25%, due 2026-09-27) Between 2026-09-18 and 2026-09-24, at least one major political statement about Iran's nuclear program will be made by a U.S. or EU official and confirmed by cross-bias agreement across two hostile sides. — resolves on: Between 2026-09-18 and 2026-09-24, at least one major political statement about Iran's nuclear program is made by a U.S. or EU official and confirmed by cross-bias agreement across two hostile sides (AXIS, WEST).
• KKR-20260911-15 (22%, due 2026-10-20) The Royal Saudi Air Force conducts a direct airstrike on Houthi-held positions at Mocha, Dhubab, or Perim Island on the Red Sea coast of Yemen between 2026-09-18 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: Two of Reuters, AP, AFP, or Al Jazeera report a Saudi strike specifically on Mocha, Dhubab, or Perim Island between 2026-09-18 and 2026-10-16; strikes elsewhere in Yemen do not qualify.
• KKR-20260911-18 (55%, due 2026-10-20) CISA adds a Cisco Secure Firewall Management Center vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-18 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: The CISA KEV catalog JSON feed lists a Cisco Secure Firewall Management Center CVE with dateAdded between 2026-09-18 and 2026-10-16.
• KKR-20260911-22 (56%, due 2026-10-20) The Royal Saudi Air Force conducts a direct airstrike on Houthi-held positions at Mocha, Dhubab, or Perim Island on the Red Sea coast of Yemen between 2026-09-18 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: Two of Reuters, AP, AFP, or Al Jazeera report a Saudi strike specifically on Mocha, Dhubab, or Perim Island between 2026-09-18 and 2026-10-16; strikes elsewhere in Yemen do not qualify.
• KKR-20260911-25 (28%, due 2026-10-20) CISA adds a Cisco Secure Firewall Management Center vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-18 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: The CISA KEV catalog JSON feed lists a Cisco Secure Firewall Management Center CVE with dateAdded between 2026-09-18 and 2026-10-16.
• KKR-20260911-33 (45%, due 2026-10-20) CISA adds CVE-2026-85706 (GitLab repository commits API path traversal) to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-12 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog JSON contains an entry for CVE-2026-85706 whose dateAdded is between 2026-09-12 and 2026-10-16 inclusive; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260911-34 (55%, due 2026-10-21) The DRC Ministry of Health, WHO, or ECDC reports a cumulative total of at least 10,000 confirmed Bundibugyo Ebola cases in the DRC for a data date on or before 2026-10-16. Reference: 6,942 confirmed cases as of 2026-09-09 on the packet date. — resolves on: TRUE if a DRC Ministry of Health, WHO, or ECDC report states DRC cumulative confirmed Bundibugyo Ebola cases of 10,000 or more with data through a date no later than 2026-10-16; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260911-40 (28%, due 2026-10-20) CISA adds CVE-2026-85706 (GitLab repository commits API path traversal) to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-12 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog JSON contains an entry for CVE-2026-85706 whose dateAdded is between 2026-09-12 and 2026-10-16 inclusive; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260911-41 (31%, due 2026-10-21) The DRC Ministry of Health, WHO, or ECDC reports a cumulative total of at least 10,000 confirmed Bundibugyo Ebola cases in the DRC for a data date on or before 2026-10-16. Reference: 6,942 confirmed cases as of 2026-09-09 on the packet date. — resolves on: TRUE if a DRC Ministry of Health, WHO, or ECDC report states DRC cumulative confirmed Bundibugyo Ebola cases of 10,000 or more with data through a date no later than 2026-10-16; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260911-42 (85%, due 2026-10-14) Russian strikes damage fuel or electric power infrastructure in Kyiv city or Kyiv oblast on at least three separate calendar days between 2026-09-12 and 2026-10-11. — resolves on: At least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, or the Guardian, citing Ukrainian officials, report such infrastructure damage in Kyiv city or oblast on three or more distinct dates between 2026-09-12 and 2026-10-11; otherwise MISS.
• KKR-20260911-43 (45%, due 2026-10-20) WTI crude front-month futures record at least one daily settlement price at or above 110.00 USD per barrel on NYMEX between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-16. Reference: 99.63 USD on the packet date. — resolves on: CME Group official daily settlement data for front-month WTI crude shows any settlement at or above 110.00 USD between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-16 inclusive; otherwise MISS.
• KKR-20260911-50 (56%, due 2026-10-14) Russian strikes damage fuel or electric power infrastructure in Kyiv city or Kyiv oblast on at least three separate calendar days between 2026-09-12 and 2026-10-11. — resolves on: At least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, or the Guardian, citing Ukrainian officials, report such infrastructure damage in Kyiv city or oblast on three or more distinct dates between 2026-09-12 and 2026-10-11; otherwise MISS.
• KKR-20260911-51 (26%, due 2026-10-20) WTI crude front-month futures record at least one daily settlement price at or above 110.00 USD per barrel on NYMEX between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-16. Reference: 99.63 USD on the packet date. — resolves on: CME Group official daily settlement data for front-month WTI crude shows any settlement at or above 110.00 USD between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-16 inclusive; otherwise MISS.
• KKR-20260912-01 (25%, due 2026-10-07) Between 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-29, the USGS Significant Quakes feed will report a magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake in Indonesia with a depth of less than 100 km. — resolves on: The USGS Significant Quakes feed reports a magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake in Indonesia with a depth of less than 100 km between 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-29.
• KKR-20260912-02 (35%, due 2026-10-09) Between 2026-09-24 and 2026-10-01, the Federal Register will publish a rulemaking notice related to AI safety or regulation. — resolves on: The Federal Register publishes a rulemaking notice related to AI safety or regulation between 2026-09-24 and 2026-10-01.
• KKR-20260912-03 (40%, due 2026-10-11) Between 2026-09-26 and 2026-10-03, the Brent crude oil price will exceed $105 per barrel on at least one weekday. — resolves on: The Brent crude oil price exceeds $105 per barrel on at least one weekday between 2026-09-26 and 2026-10-03.
• KKR-20260912-04 (20%, due 2026-10-12) Between 2026-09-27 and 2026-10-04, the Iranian government will publicly confirm the capture of Mayun Island in the Red Sea. — resolves on: The Iranian government publicly confirms the capture of Mayun Island in the Red Sea between 2026-09-27 and 2026-10-04.
• KKR-20260912-05 (25%, due 2026-10-13) Between 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-05, the USGS Significant Quakes feed will report a magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake in the Russian Federation with a depth of less than 100 km. — resolves on: The USGS Significant Quakes feed reports a magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake in the Russian Federation with a depth of less than 100 km between 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-05.
• KKR-20260912-06 (25%, due 2026-09-23) Between 2026-09-13 and 2026-09-19, at least one of the following will be reported in two or more independent wire services: a drone strike on a Ukrainian military target in Kyiv or a missile strike on a Russian military installation in Moscow. — resolves on: At least one of the following will be reported in two or more independent wire services: a drone strike on a Ukrainian military target in Kyiv or a missile strike on a Russian military installation in Moscow, with the event window falling between 2026-09-13 and 2026-09-19.
• KKR-20260912-10 (35%, due 2026-09-27) Between 2026-09-18 and 2026-09-25, the GDACS Alerts system will issue a Red or Orange alert for a forest fire in Russia or Kazakhstan. — resolves on: The GDACS Alerts system will issue a Red or Orange alert for a forest fire in Russia or Kazakhstan between 2026-09-18 and 2026-09-25.
• KKR-20260912-12 (45%, due 2026-09-29) Between 2026-09-20 and 2026-09-27, at least one of the following will be reported in two or more independent outlets: a cyberattack on a U.S. federal agency using a vulnerability from the CISA KEV catalog or a ransomware attack on a U.S. hospital system. — resolves on: At least one of the following will be reported in two or more independent outlets: a cyberattack on a U.S. federal agency using a vulnerability from the CISA KEV catalog or a ransomware attack on a U.S. hospital system, with the event window falling between 2026-09-20 and 2026-09-27.
• KKR-20260912-14 (30%, due 2026-10-20) WTI crude front-month futures settle at or above 110.00 USD per barrel on any trading day between 2026-09-19 and 2026-10-17. Reference: 100.05 USD per barrel on 2026-09-12, the packet date — resolves on: TRUE if any NYMEX WTI front-month settlement or EIA daily spot price in the window is 110.00 USD per barrel or higher; FALSE otherwise
• KKR-20260912-15 (40%, due 2026-10-20) CISA adds at least one Check Point-vendor CVE to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a date-added value between 2026-09-19 and 2026-10-17 — resolves on: TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog lists a Check Point-vendor CVE with dateAdded in the window; FALSE otherwise
• KKR-20260912-16 (35%, due 2026-10-20) OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Meta issues an official statement or a named spokesperson is quoted by a major outlet addressing Dario Amodei's proposal to slow AI development, between 2026-09-19 and 2026-10-17 — resolves on: TRUE if Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, CNBC, Guardian, or BBC quotes an official OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Meta statement addressing the proposal in the window; FALSE otherwise
• KKR-20260912-17 (22%, due 2026-10-20) Ireland's Taoiseach or the Department of Foreign Affairs issues an on-record statement addressing Donald Trump's 12 September 2026 unified-Ireland remarks, between 2026-09-19 and 2026-10-17 — resolves on: TRUE if RTE, Irish Times, or a wire service reports an on-record statement from the Taoiseach's office or Department of Foreign Affairs addressing the remarks in the window; FALSE otherwise
• KKR-20260912-18 (15%, due 2026-10-20) Spanish or Catalan authorities confirm 5 or more arrests connected to the 12 September 2026 Barcelona Catalan national day clashes, in a statement or report between 2026-09-19 and 2026-10-17 — resolves on: TRUE if a Spanish government, Catalan regional police, or wire-service report in the window states 5 or more arrests tied to the incident; FALSE otherwise
• KKR-20260912-20 (26%, due 2026-10-20) WTI crude front-month futures settle at or above 110.00 USD per barrel on any trading day between 2026-09-19 and 2026-10-17. Reference: 100.05 USD per barrel on 2026-09-12, the packet date — resolves on: TRUE if any NYMEX WTI front-month settlement or EIA daily spot price in the window is 110.00 USD per barrel or higher; FALSE otherwise
• KKR-20260912-21 (28%, due 2026-10-20) CISA adds at least one Check Point-vendor CVE to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a date-added value between 2026-09-19 and 2026-10-17 — resolves on: TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog lists a Check Point-vendor CVE with dateAdded in the window; FALSE otherwise
• KKR-20260912-22 (35%, due 2026-10-20) OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Meta issues an official statement or a named spokesperson is quoted by a major outlet addressing Dario Amodei's proposal to slow AI development, between 2026-09-19 and 2026-10-17 — resolves on: TRUE if Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, CNBC, Guardian, or BBC quotes an official OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Meta statement addressing the proposal in the window; FALSE otherwise
• KKR-20260912-23 (35%, due 2026-10-20) Ireland's Taoiseach or the Department of Foreign Affairs issues an on-record statement addressing Donald Trump's 12 September 2026 unified-Ireland remarks, between 2026-09-19 and 2026-10-17 — resolves on: TRUE if RTE, Irish Times, or a wire service reports an on-record statement from the Taoiseach's office or Department of Foreign Affairs addressing the remarks in the window; FALSE otherwise
• KKR-20260912-24 (10%, due 2026-10-20) Spanish or Catalan authorities confirm 5 or more arrests connected to the 12 September 2026 Barcelona Catalan national day clashes, in a statement or report between 2026-09-19 and 2026-10-17 — resolves on: TRUE if a Spanish government, Catalan regional police, or wire-service report in the window states 5 or more arrests tied to the incident; FALSE otherwise
• KKR-20260912-29 (40%, due 2026-10-14) Between 2026-09-12 and 2026-10-10, records taken from the Florida FLHSMV DAVID driver database in the September 2026 breach claimed by ShinyHunters are posted for public download or public viewing on a leak site, forum, or Telegram channel, not merely offered for private sale. — resolves on: At least two of BleepingComputer, The Record, DataBreaches.net, TechCrunch, or a wire service publish, between 2026-09-12 and 2026-10-12, reports that DAVID breach records were publicly posted on a date within 2026-09-12 to 2026-10-10.
• KKR-20260912-36 (28%, due 2026-10-14) Between 2026-09-12 and 2026-10-10, records taken from the Florida FLHSMV DAVID driver database in the September 2026 breach claimed by ShinyHunters are posted for public download or public viewing on a leak site, forum, or Telegram channel, not merely offered for private sale. — resolves on: At least two of BleepingComputer, The Record, DataBreaches.net, TechCrunch, or a wire service publish, between 2026-09-12 and 2026-10-12, reports that DAVID breach records were publicly posted on a date within 2026-09-12 to 2026-10-10.
• KKR-20260912-55 (65%, due 2026-10-20) Saudi Aramco or the Saudi energy ministry announces resumption of flows on the pipeline shut after the 2026-09-12 drone attack, with the announcement falling between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if Reuters and at least one of BBC or Al Jazeera report an official Saudi announcement of resumed flows on that pipeline dated 2026-09-14 through 2026-10-16.
• KKR-20260912-59 (56%, due 2026-10-20) Saudi Aramco or the Saudi energy ministry announces resumption of flows on the pipeline shut after the 2026-09-12 drone attack, with the announcement falling between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if Reuters and at least one of BBC or Al Jazeera report an official Saudi announcement of resumed flows on that pipeline dated 2026-09-14 through 2026-10-16.
• KKR-20260913-10 (32%, due 2026-10-20) WTI crude oil, reference 100.05 dollars per barrel at the prior-session close reported in the 2026-09-13 packet, will settle at or above 112.00 dollars per barrel on any NYMEX trading day between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-19. — resolves on: The NYMEX front-month WTI settlement price, reference 100.05 dollars per barrel on the 2026-09-13 packet date, is 112.00 dollars per barrel or higher on at least one trading day between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-19.
• KKR-20260913-14 (55%, due 2026-10-13) Between 2026-09-20 and 2026-10-11, Hampshire police will arrest at least one of the six men whose images were released in connection with the Portsmouth violent-disorder incident. — resolves on: Hampshire Constabulary, the BBC, or the Guardian report the arrest of at least one of the six men named in the Portsmouth violent-disorder appeal, with the arrest dated between 2026-09-20 and 2026-10-11.
• KKR-20260913-18 (26%, due 2026-10-20) WTI crude oil, reference 100.05 dollars per barrel at the prior-session close reported in the 2026-09-13 packet, will settle at or above 112.00 dollars per barrel on any NYMEX trading day between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-19. — resolves on: The NYMEX front-month WTI settlement price, reference 100.05 dollars per barrel on the 2026-09-13 packet date, is 112.00 dollars per barrel or higher on at least one trading day between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-19.
• KKR-20260913-22 (10%, due 2026-10-13) Between 2026-09-20 and 2026-10-11, Hampshire police will arrest at least one of the six men whose images were released in connection with the Portsmouth violent-disorder incident. — resolves on: Hampshire Constabulary, the BBC, or the Guardian report the arrest of at least one of the six men named in the Portsmouth violent-disorder appeal, with the arrest dated between 2026-09-20 and 2026-10-11.
• KKR-20260913-29 (15%, due 2026-10-20) Between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-16, CISA adds a Tencent vulnerability (including Sogou Input Method, CVE-2026-51990) to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog. — resolves on: TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed carries an entry whose vendorProject is Tencent or whose product includes Sogou, with dateAdded between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-16; FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260913-37 (28%, due 2026-10-20) Between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-16, CISA adds a Tencent vulnerability (including Sogou Input Method, CVE-2026-51990) to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog. — resolves on: TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed carries an entry whose vendorProject is Tencent or whose product includes Sogou, with dateAdded between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-16; FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260913-52 (45%, due 2026-10-20) Indonesian authorities state a death toll of 50 or more from the Java Sea passenger ship that capsized on 2026-09-13, with the statement issued between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-14. — resolves on: TRUE if Basarnas or another Indonesian government body states a confirmed or recovered toll of at least 50 dead for this vessel, corroborated by two independent wire services.
• KKR-20260913-57 (31%, due 2026-10-20) Indonesian authorities state a death toll of 50 or more from the Java Sea passenger ship that capsized on 2026-09-13, with the statement issued between 2026-09-14 and 2026-10-14. — resolves on: TRUE if Basarnas or another Indonesian government body states a confirmed or recovered toll of at least 50 dead for this vessel, corroborated by two independent wire services.
• KKR-20260914-03 (10%, due 2026-10-01) Between 2026-09-26 and 2026-09-29, Iran announces a formal closure of the Strait of Hormuz to foreign shipping, as confirmed by a statement from the Iranian Foreign Ministry and at least two independent news outlets. — resolves on: A statement from the Iranian Foreign Ministry, published between 2026-09-26 and 2026-09-29, confirms the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to foreign shipping, and at least two independent news outlets (e.g., BBC, Al Jazeera, Guardian) report the closure.
• KKR-20260914-11 (15%, due 2026-10-15) Gulf states and Iran hold and conclude a meeting on Strait of Hormuz safe passage or de-confliction, producing a joint statement or announced agreement, between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-13, after three postponements reported through 14 September 2026. — resolves on: TRUE if at least two of Reuters, AP, Al Jazeera, Iranian state media, or a Gulf state government statement confirm a Gulf states-Iran meeting on Hormuz concluded with a joint statement or announced agreement between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-13. FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260914-12 (10%, due 2026-10-15) GDACS raises its alert level for the Angola forest fire event, GDACS event ID 1031945, green as of 14 September 2026, to Orange or Red, between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-13. — resolves on: TRUE if the GDACS report page for event ID 1031945 (eventtype WF) shows an Orange or Red alert level at any point between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-13. FALSE if it remains Green or is closed or archived without upgrade.
• KKR-20260914-19 (35%, due 2026-10-15) Gulf states and Iran hold and conclude a meeting on Strait of Hormuz safe passage or de-confliction, producing a joint statement or announced agreement, between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-13, after three postponements reported through 14 September 2026. — resolves on: TRUE if at least two of Reuters, AP, Al Jazeera, Iranian state media, or a Gulf state government statement confirm a Gulf states-Iran meeting on Hormuz concluded with a joint statement or announced agreement between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-13. FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260914-20 (31%, due 2026-10-15) GDACS raises its alert level for the Angola forest fire event, GDACS event ID 1031945, green as of 14 September 2026, to Orange or Red, between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-13. — resolves on: TRUE if the GDACS report page for event ID 1031945 (eventtype WF) shows an Orange or Red alert level at any point between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-13. FALSE if it remains Green or is closed or archived without upgrade.
• KKR-20260914-26 (30%, due 2026-10-19) Between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-15 foreign ministers or higher-ranking officials of Iran and at least three Gulf Cooperation Council member states attend the same in-person meeting with Strait of Hormuz transit on its stated agenda, as reported by two of Reuters, AP, AFP, Al Jazeera. — resolves on: True if two of Reuters, AP, AFP, or Al Jazeera report an in-person meeting dated 2026-09-15 to 2026-10-15 of foreign ministers or above from Iran and three or more GCC states with Hormuz on the stated agenda. Otherwise false.
• KKR-20260914-32 (56%, due 2026-10-19) Between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-15 foreign ministers or higher-ranking officials of Iran and at least three Gulf Cooperation Council member states attend the same in-person meeting with Strait of Hormuz transit on its stated agenda, as reported by two of Reuters, AP, AFP, Al Jazeera. — resolves on: True if two of Reuters, AP, AFP, or Al Jazeera report an in-person meeting dated 2026-09-15 to 2026-10-15 of foreign ministers or above from Iran and three or more GCC states with Hormuz on the stated agenda. Otherwise false.
• KKR-20260914-35 (88%, due 2026-10-20) The FRED DGS10 10-year US Treasury constant maturity yield prints 5.00 percent or higher on at least one business day between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-16. Reference: 4.99 percent at packet seal. — resolves on: FRED series DGS10 shows a daily value of 5.00 or higher for at least one business day between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-16 inclusive. Reference: 4.99 at packet seal.
• KKR-20260914-39 (85%, due 2026-10-19) Microsoft ships a fix dated between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-15 for the September 2026 update issue causing Remote Desktop Services failures on Windows Server, reflected as resolved on Windows release health. — resolves on: Microsoft Windows release health documentation lists the September Windows Server RDS failure issue as resolved by an update released between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-15.
• KKR-20260914-44 (26%, due 2026-10-20) The FRED DGS10 10-year US Treasury constant maturity yield prints 5.00 percent or higher on at least one business day between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-16. Reference: 4.99 percent at packet seal. — resolves on: FRED series DGS10 shows a daily value of 5.00 or higher for at least one business day between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-16 inclusive. Reference: 4.99 at packet seal.
• KKR-20260914-48 (28%, due 2026-10-19) Microsoft ships a fix dated between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-15 for the September 2026 update issue causing Remote Desktop Services failures on Windows Server, reflected as resolved on Windows release health. — resolves on: Microsoft Windows release health documentation lists the September Windows Server RDS failure issue as resolved by an update released between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-15.
• KKR-20260914-53 (14%, due 2026-10-20) Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is halted for more than 24 consecutive hours at some point between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: TRUE if Reuters or Lloyds List Intelligence and Iranian state media both report a halt of commercial Hormuz transits exceeding 24 consecutive hours occurring between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-15.
• KKR-20260914-58 (78%, due 2026-10-20) Microsoft resolves the September 2026 Windows Server RDS connection failure with a shipped update between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if the Windows release health entry for the September 2026 RDS failure shows status Resolved by an out-of-band update, Known Issue Rollback, or cumulative update dated between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-16.
• KKR-20260914-61 (12%, due 2026-09-29) GDACS raises the alert level for tropical cyclone FIFTEEN-E-26 to orange or red at some point between 2026-09-15 and 2026-09-25. — resolves on: TRUE if the GDACS event page for tropical cyclone FIFTEEN-E-26 shows an orange or red alert level assigned between 2026-09-15 and 2026-09-25.
• KKR-20260914-62 (56%, due 2026-10-20) Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is halted for more than 24 consecutive hours at some point between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: TRUE if Reuters or Lloyds List Intelligence and Iranian state media both report a halt of commercial Hormuz transits exceeding 24 consecutive hours occurring between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-15.
• KKR-20260914-67 (28%, due 2026-10-20) Microsoft resolves the September 2026 Windows Server RDS connection failure with a shipped update between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if the Windows release health entry for the September 2026 RDS failure shows status Resolved by an out-of-band update, Known Issue Rollback, or cumulative update dated between 2026-09-15 and 2026-10-16.
• KKR-20260914-70 (31%, due 2026-09-29) GDACS raises the alert level for tropical cyclone FIFTEEN-E-26 to orange or red at some point between 2026-09-15 and 2026-09-25. — resolves on: TRUE if the GDACS event page for tropical cyclone FIFTEEN-E-26 shows an orange or red alert level assigned between 2026-09-15 and 2026-09-25.
• KKR-20260915-01 (25%, due 2026-10-07) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, at least one drone strike will be reported in Gaza City by two or more independently biased sources across hostile sides. — resolves on: At least one drone strike in Gaza City is reported by two or more independently biased sources across hostile sides (AXIS, IL, PS) within the event window.
• KKR-20260915-03 (35%, due 2026-10-08) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a confirmed cyberattack exploiting the VMware vCenter RCE flaw (CVE-2026-76461) will be reported by two or more independent sources. — resolves on: Two or more independent sources report a confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-76461 in the wild between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260915-04 (20%, due 2026-10-07) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a major flood warning will be issued by the US National Weather Service for at least one county in Iowa. — resolves on: The US National Weather Service issues a major flood warning for at least one county in Iowa between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260915-05 (30%, due 2026-10-07) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, the US Supreme Court will issue a ruling rejecting a challenge to mail-in voting procedures. — resolves on: The US Supreme Court issues a ruling rejecting a challenge to mail-in voting procedures between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260915-06 (25%, due 2026-10-08) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a confirmed attack on a critical infrastructure system in the United States will be reported by two or more independent sources. — resolves on: Two or more independent sources report a confirmed attack on a critical infrastructure system in the United States between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260915-07 (15%, due 2026-10-07) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, Iran will announce a new diplomatic initiative involving China and the United States. — resolves on: Iran announces a new diplomatic initiative involving China and the United States between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260915-08 (20%, due 2026-10-08) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a confirmed cyberattack using the BambooToken malware will be reported by two or more independent sources. — resolves on: Two or more independent sources report a confirmed cyberattack using BambooToken malware between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260915-12 (35%, due 2026-09-24) Between 2026-09-15 and 2026-09-22, a major oil pipeline disruption in the Panama Canal region will be confirmed by two independent sources due to drought. — resolves on: A major disruption to oil pipeline traffic in the Panama Canal region is confirmed by two independent sources (e.g., Guardian World, BBC World) due to drought conditions linked to El Niño.
• KKR-20260915-14 (20%, due 2026-09-24) Between 2026-09-15 and 2026-09-22, a cyberattack targeting a U.S. federal agency will be attributed to a China-linked group by CISA. — resolves on: CISA issues a public advisory attributing a cyberattack on a U.S. federal agency to a China-linked threat actor during the event window.
• KKR-20260915-17 (25%, due 2026-09-24) Between 2026-09-15 and 2026-09-22, a major forest fire in Australia will be reported by GDACS Alerts with a green alert level. — resolves on: GDACS Alerts issues a green forest fire notification for Australia during the event window.
• KKR-20260915-20 (70%, due 2026-10-20) The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one Google Chrome or Chromium CVE with dateAdded between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: True if the public CISA KEV JSON contains an entry whose vendor or product field names Google Chrome or Chromium with dateAdded between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-16 inclusive.
• KKR-20260915-29 (28%, due 2026-10-20) The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one Google Chrome or Chromium CVE with dateAdded between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: True if the public CISA KEV JSON contains an entry whose vendor or product field names Google Chrome or Chromium with dateAdded between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-16 inclusive.
• KKR-20260915-38 (10%, due 2026-10-19) Between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-15, at least one NATO member state formally requests consultations under Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty. — resolves on: TRUE if NATO or the requesting government publicly confirms a formal Article 4 consultation request made between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-15; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260915-41 (72%, due 2026-10-22) The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one Microsoft Windows vulnerability with a dateAdded value between 2026-10-13 and 2026-10-19, the week of the October 2026 Patch Tuesday. — resolves on: TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed lists at least one entry with vendorProject Microsoft, a product field containing Windows or Win32k, and dateAdded between 2026-10-13 and 2026-10-19; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260915-44 (25%, due 2026-10-20) Between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-16, Dutch police or prosecutors announce at least one arrest in connection with the suspected sabotage that disrupted Netherlands rail services, reported on 2026-09-15. — resolves on: TRUE if Dutch police (politie.nl) or the Public Prosecution Service (om.nl) announce an arrest, made between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-16, linked to the rail sabotage reported on 2026-09-15; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260915-47 (56%, due 2026-10-19) Between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-15, at least one NATO member state formally requests consultations under Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty. — resolves on: TRUE if NATO or the requesting government publicly confirms a formal Article 4 consultation request made between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-15; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260915-50 (28%, due 2026-10-22) The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one Microsoft Windows vulnerability with a dateAdded value between 2026-10-13 and 2026-10-19, the week of the October 2026 Patch Tuesday. — resolves on: TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed lists at least one entry with vendorProject Microsoft, a product field containing Windows or Win32k, and dateAdded between 2026-10-13 and 2026-10-19; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260915-53 (10%, due 2026-10-20) Between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-16, Dutch police or prosecutors announce at least one arrest in connection with the suspected sabotage that disrupted Netherlands rail services, reported on 2026-09-15. — resolves on: TRUE if Dutch police (politie.nl) or the Public Prosecution Service (om.nl) announce an arrest, made between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-16, linked to the rail sabotage reported on 2026-09-15; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20260915-54 (58%, due 2026-10-02) A Houthi-attributed strike hits Saudi Arabian oil or port infrastructure, or a vessel in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden, between 2026-09-16 and 2026-09-30. — resolves on: TRUE if Reuters, AP, or Al Jazeera report and two of those outlets corroborate a Houthi-attributed strike on Saudi oil, port, or Red Sea shipping targets between 2026-09-16 and 2026-09-30, checked by 2026-10-02.
• KKR-20260915-55 (32%, due 2026-10-08) A NATO member state government attributes an intercepted, engaged, or shot-down aircraft or drone violating its airspace to Russia or a Russia-aligned actor, between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-06. — resolves on: TRUE if a NATO member government or Reuters/AP/BBC reports the state intercepted or engaged an aircraft or drone violating its airspace and attributed it to Russia between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-06, checked by 2026-10-08.
• KKR-20260915-57 (25%, due 2026-09-29) GDACS upgrades its alert level for Tropical Cyclone TWENTYFOUR-26 from Green to Orange or Red, between 2026-09-16 and 2026-09-25. — resolves on: TRUE if gdacs.org shows an alert-level upgrade to Orange or Red for Tropical Cyclone TWENTYFOUR-26 dated between 2026-09-16 and 2026-09-25, checked 2026-09-29.
• KKR-20260915-60 (22%, due 2026-10-19) The Trump administration or DOJ files a petition for rehearing or a new emergency application with the Supreme Court on the mail ballot ruling from items 102, 103, and 124, between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: TRUE if the Supreme Court docket shows a rehearing petition or new emergency application from the Trump administration or DOJ on this specific ruling, filed between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-15, checked 2026-10-19.
• KKR-20260915-61 (20%, due 2026-10-19) The UK government publishes a new or expanded sanctions measure targeting Israeli individuals, entities, or settlement-linked goods, between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: TRUE if gov.uk publishes a new Statutory Instrument or Foreign Office notice expanding sanctions on Israeli individuals, entities, or settlement goods, dated between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-15, checked 2026-10-19.
• KKR-20260915-62 (56%, due 2026-10-02) A Houthi-attributed strike hits Saudi Arabian oil or port infrastructure, or a vessel in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden, between 2026-09-16 and 2026-09-30. — resolves on: TRUE if Reuters, AP, or Al Jazeera report and two of those outlets corroborate a Houthi-attributed strike on Saudi oil, port, or Red Sea shipping targets between 2026-09-16 and 2026-09-30, checked by 2026-10-02.
• KKR-20260915-63 (56%, due 2026-10-08) A NATO member state government attributes an intercepted, engaged, or shot-down aircraft or drone violating its airspace to Russia or a Russia-aligned actor, between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-06. — resolves on: TRUE if a NATO member government or Reuters/AP/BBC reports the state intercepted or engaged an aircraft or drone violating its airspace and attributed it to Russia between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-06, checked by 2026-10-08.
• KKR-20260915-65 (31%, due 2026-09-29) GDACS upgrades its alert level for Tropical Cyclone TWENTYFOUR-26 from Green to Orange or Red, between 2026-09-16 and 2026-09-25. — resolves on: TRUE if gdacs.org shows an alert-level upgrade to Orange or Red for Tropical Cyclone TWENTYFOUR-26 dated between 2026-09-16 and 2026-09-25, checked 2026-09-29.
• KKR-20260915-68 (35%, due 2026-10-19) The Trump administration or DOJ files a petition for rehearing or a new emergency application with the Supreme Court on the mail ballot ruling from items 102, 103, and 124, between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: TRUE if the Supreme Court docket shows a rehearing petition or new emergency application from the Trump administration or DOJ on this specific ruling, filed between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-15, checked 2026-10-19.
• KKR-20260915-69 (35%, due 2026-10-19) The UK government publishes a new or expanded sanctions measure targeting Israeli individuals, entities, or settlement-linked goods, between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: TRUE if gov.uk publishes a new Statutory Instrument or Foreign Office notice expanding sanctions on Israeli individuals, entities, or settlement goods, dated between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-15, checked 2026-10-19.
• KKR-20260915-70 (75%, due 2026-10-19) Between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-15 at least one merchant vessel is attacked, boarded, hijacked, or seized in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, or Persian Gulf, and UKMTO records the incident. — resolves on: The UKMTO incidents list (ukmto.org) shows an incident dated between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-15 in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, or Persian Gulf classified as an attack, boarding, hijack, or seizure of a merchant vessel.
• KKR-20260915-73 (30%, due 2026-10-19) Between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-15 a round of talks between United States and Iranian government officials, direct or mediated, is held and publicly confirmed by both governments. — resolves on: At least two of Reuters, AP, AFP report that the United States government and the Iranian Foreign Ministry each confirmed a round of US-Iran talks, direct or mediated, held between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-15.
• KKR-20260915-75 (75%, due 2026-10-20) The 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield (FRED series DGS10) prints 5.00 percent or higher on at least one observation dated 2026-09-16 through 2026-10-16. Reference: 4.99 percent on the packet date. — resolves on: FRED series DGS10 shows at least one observation dated 2026-09-16 through 2026-10-16 with a value of 5.00 or greater. Reference: 4.99 percent on the packet date.
• KKR-20260915-76 (65%, due 2026-10-19) Between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-15 CISA adds to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog at least one entry with vendorProject Google and a product field containing Chrome or Chromium. — resolves on: The CISA KEV catalog JSON feed contains an entry with vendorProject Google, a product field containing Chrome or Chromium, and a dateAdded between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-15 inclusive.
• KKR-20260915-77 (25%, due 2026-10-19) Between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-15 Dutch authorities announce the arrest of at least one suspect in connection with the suspected sabotage that disrupted Netherlands rail traffic on 2026-09-15. — resolves on: At least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, NOS report that the Netherlands Public Prosecution Service or Dutch police announced, between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-15, the arrest of a suspect for the 2026-09-15 rail sabotage.
• KKR-20260915-79 (56%, due 2026-10-19) Between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-15 at least one merchant vessel is attacked, boarded, hijacked, or seized in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, or Persian Gulf, and UKMTO records the incident. — resolves on: The UKMTO incidents list (ukmto.org) shows an incident dated between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-15 in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, or Persian Gulf classified as an attack, boarding, hijack, or seizure of a merchant vessel.
• KKR-20260915-82 (35%, due 2026-10-19) Between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-15 a round of talks between United States and Iranian government officials, direct or mediated, is held and publicly confirmed by both governments. — resolves on: At least two of Reuters, AP, AFP report that the United States government and the Iranian Foreign Ministry each confirmed a round of US-Iran talks, direct or mediated, held between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-15.
• KKR-20260915-84 (26%, due 2026-10-20) The 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield (FRED series DGS10) prints 5.00 percent or higher on at least one observation dated 2026-09-16 through 2026-10-16. Reference: 4.99 percent on the packet date. — resolves on: FRED series DGS10 shows at least one observation dated 2026-09-16 through 2026-10-16 with a value of 5.00 or greater. Reference: 4.99 percent on the packet date.
• KKR-20260915-85 (28%, due 2026-10-19) Between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-15 CISA adds to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog at least one entry with vendorProject Google and a product field containing Chrome or Chromium. — resolves on: The CISA KEV catalog JSON feed contains an entry with vendorProject Google, a product field containing Chrome or Chromium, and a dateAdded between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-15 inclusive.
• KKR-20260915-86 (10%, due 2026-10-19) Between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-15 Dutch authorities announce the arrest of at least one suspect in connection with the suspected sabotage that disrupted Netherlands rail traffic on 2026-09-15. — resolves on: At least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, NOS report that the Netherlands Public Prosecution Service or Dutch police announced, between 2026-09-16 and 2026-10-15, the arrest of a suspect for the 2026-09-15 rail sabotage.
• KKR-20260916-02 (25%, due 2026-10-05) Between 2026-09-16 and 2026-09-23, a green forest fire notification will be issued for Spain via GDACS Alerts. — resolves on: GDACS Alerts issues a green forest fire notification for Spain between 2026-09-16 and 2026-09-23.
• KKR-20260916-04 (40%, due 2026-10-05) Between 2026-09-16 and 2026-09-23, the EUR/USD exchange rate will close above 1.1600 on at least one trading day. — resolves on: The EUR/USD exchange rate closes above 1.1600 on at least one trading day between 2026-09-16 and 2026-09-23.
• KKR-20260916-06 (15%, due 2026-10-05) Between 2026-09-16 and 2026-09-23, the US Senate will pass a resolution to ban social media use for users under 13 in the European Union. — resolves on: The US Senate passes a resolution to ban social media use for users under 13 in the European Union between 2026-09-16 and 2026-09-23.
• KKR-20260916-08 (40%, due 2026-10-07) Between 2026-09-19 and 2026-09-25, a new ransomware variant exploiting the Acronis cPanel Backup Plugin vulnerability (CVE-2026-58704) is observed in at least 15 distinct organizations across Europe and North America, as confirmed by BleepingComputer and The Hacker News. — resolves on: BleepingComputer and The Hacker News publish reports between 2026-09-19 and 2026-09-25 confirming that a new ransomware variant exploiting the Acronis cPanel Backup Plugin vulnerability (CVE-2026-58704) has affected at least 15 distinct organizations in Europe and North America.
• KKR-20260916-09 (32%, due 2026-10-08) Between 2026-09-18 and 2026-09-25, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds 5.0% on at least three consecutive trading days, as confirmed by the prior-session close data from MarketWatch. — resolves on: MarketWatch reports that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeded 5.0% on at least three consecutive trading days between 2026-09-18 and 2026-09-25.
• KKR-20260916-18 (75%, due 2026-10-21) Saudi official channels acknowledge at least one Houthi-attributed drone or missile impact or interception over Saudi territory occurring between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-17. — resolves on: Saudi Press Agency, the Saudi defense ministry, or Saudi civil defense acknowledges an impact or interception dated 2026-09-17 through 2026-10-17, and Reuters, AP, or AFP carries the acknowledgment by the deadline.
• KKR-20260916-27 (61%, due 2026-10-21) Saudi official channels acknowledge at least one Houthi-attributed drone or missile impact or interception over Saudi territory occurring between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-17. — resolves on: Saudi Press Agency, the Saudi defense ministry, or Saudi civil defense acknowledges an impact or interception dated 2026-09-17 through 2026-10-17, and Reuters, AP, or AFP carries the acknowledgment by the deadline.
• KKR-20260916-30 (35%, due 2026-10-20) The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry for an Acronis product with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: True if the CISA KEV JSON feed contains at least one entry whose vendorProject or product field contains Acronis, case-insensitive, with dateAdded between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-16 inclusive.
• KKR-20260916-35 (25%, due 2026-10-21) The FRED series DCOILWTICO (WTI spot, Cushing) observation dated 2026-10-16 is at or above 110.00 USD per barrel. Reference: WTI 101.87 on the packet date. — resolves on: True if the FRED DCOILWTICO observation dated 2026-10-16 is 110.00 or higher; if no observation exists for that date, use the next posted trading-day observation.
• KKR-20260916-38 (29%, due 2026-10-20) The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one entry for an Acronis product with a dateAdded value between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: True if the CISA KEV JSON feed contains at least one entry whose vendorProject or product field contains Acronis, case-insensitive, with dateAdded between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-16 inclusive.
• KKR-20260916-43 (24%, due 2026-10-21) The FRED series DCOILWTICO (WTI spot, Cushing) observation dated 2026-10-16 is at or above 110.00 USD per barrel. Reference: WTI 101.87 on the packet date. — resolves on: True if the FRED DCOILWTICO observation dated 2026-10-16 is 110.00 or higher; if no observation exists for that date, use the next posted trading-day observation.
• KKR-20260916-48 (55%, due 2026-10-20) Russia and Ukraine complete at least one exchange of prisoners of war, announced by both governments, between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if both the Russian Defence Ministry and the Ukrainian government (the President or the POW Coordination Headquarters) announce a completed prisoner-of-war exchange that took place between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-16.
• KKR-20260916-58 (61%, due 2026-10-20) Russia and Ukraine complete at least one exchange of prisoners of war, announced by both governments, between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if both the Russian Defence Ministry and the Ukrainian government (the President or the POW Coordination Headquarters) announce a completed prisoner-of-war exchange that took place between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-16.
• KKR-20260916-67 (27%, due 2026-10-22) WTI crude oil (NYMEX front-month futures) will record a settlement price at or above 110.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-23 and 2026-10-21. Reference: 101.87 USD per barrel on the packet date, 2026-09-16. — resolves on: TRUE if the NYMEX WTI front-month futures settlement price (as published by CME Group or the US Energy Information Administration) equals or exceeds 110.00 USD per barrel on any trading day from 2026-09-23 through 2026-10-21 inclusive; FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260916-68 (40%, due 2026-10-22) The US 10-year Treasury note yield will close at or above 5.10 percent on at least one trading day between 2026-09-23 and 2026-10-21. Reference: 4.96 percent on the packet date, 2026-09-16. — resolves on: TRUE if the US Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates (treasury.gov) or a major financial data provider (Bloomberg, Reuters) shows the 10-year Treasury yield closing at or above 5.10 percent on any trading day from 2026-09-23 through 2026-10-21 inclusive; FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260916-72 (24%, due 2026-10-22) WTI crude oil (NYMEX front-month futures) will record a settlement price at or above 110.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-23 and 2026-10-21. Reference: 101.87 USD per barrel on the packet date, 2026-09-16. — resolves on: TRUE if the NYMEX WTI front-month futures settlement price (as published by CME Group or the US Energy Information Administration) equals or exceeds 110.00 USD per barrel on any trading day from 2026-09-23 through 2026-10-21 inclusive; FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260916-73 (24%, due 2026-10-22) The US 10-year Treasury note yield will close at or above 5.10 percent on at least one trading day between 2026-09-23 and 2026-10-21. Reference: 4.96 percent on the packet date, 2026-09-16. — resolves on: TRUE if the US Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates (treasury.gov) or a major financial data provider (Bloomberg, Reuters) shows the 10-year Treasury yield closing at or above 5.10 percent on any trading day from 2026-09-23 through 2026-10-21 inclusive; FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260917-01 (35%, due 2026-10-02) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a new flood warning for Marion County, Florida, will be issued by the National Weather Service and confirmed by at least two independent news outlets. — resolves on: The National Weather Service issues a flood warning for Marion County, Florida, between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, and this is confirmed by at least two independent news outlets.
• KKR-20260917-02 (40%, due 2026-10-02) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a new political scandal involving a U.S. government official will be reported by at least two major outlets with independent corroboration. — resolves on: At least two major outlets (e.g., Guardian, BBC, Al Jazeera, CNBC) report a new political scandal involving a U.S. government official, with corroboration from a third source.
• KKR-20260917-05 (25%, due 2026-10-02) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a new political resignation in a European country will be confirmed by at least two major news outlets. — resolves on: At least two major news outlets (e.g., BBC, Guardian, Al Jazeera) confirm a new political resignation in a European country between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260917-09 (30%, due 2026-09-26) Between 2026-09-18 and 2026-09-24, a new vulnerability in Cisco Identity Services Engine (ISE) will be exploited in at least one confirmed cyberattack, as reported by two independent sources. — resolves on: A new vulnerability in Cisco Identity Services Engine (ISE) is exploited in at least one confirmed cyberattack, as reported by two independent sources.
• KKR-20260917-11 (45%, due 2026-09-26) Between 2026-09-18 and 2026-09-24, at least one of the following will occur: a flood warning issued in the Upper Rio Grande Valley, or a flash flood warning issued in the Eastern San Juan Mountains. — resolves on: At least one of the following occurs: a flood warning issued in the Upper Rio Grande Valley, or a flash flood warning issued in the Eastern San Juan Mountains.
• KKR-20260917-14 (20%, due 2026-09-26) Between 2026-09-18 and 2026-09-24, a new AI-powered data breach will be reported in Spain, as confirmed by a public statement from Spain's data agency. — resolves on: A new AI-powered data breach is reported in Spain, as confirmed by a public statement from Spain's data agency.
• KKR-20260917-16 (10%, due 2026-10-20) Between 2026-09-18 and 2026-10-16, India or Pakistan officially acknowledges at least one of its own uniformed personnel killed by fire from the forces of the other country. — resolves on: TRUE if, between 2026-09-18 and 2026-10-16, the Indian Ministry of Defence, Indian Army, Pakistan ISPR, or Pakistan Navy officially acknowledges at least one of its own uniformed personnel killed by fire from the forces of the other country.
• KKR-20260917-21 (60%, due 2026-10-20) Between 2026-09-18 and 2026-10-16, Microsoft releases a fix and marks the Windows 11 domain trust and domain login issue introduced by update KB5124008 as Resolved. — resolves on: TRUE if Microsoft Windows release health or the KB5124008 support article shows the domain trust or domain login known issue with status Resolved and a resolution date between 2026-09-18 and 2026-10-16, on the live page or an archive.org capture.
• KKR-20260917-23 (22%, due 2026-10-19) Between 2026-09-18 00:00 UTC and 2026-10-15 23:59 UTC, an earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or greater occurs with epicenter within 150 km of USGS event us7000ti1p (M6.5, Fox Islands, Alaska, 2026-09-17). — resolves on: TRUE if the USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one event of magnitude 5.5 or greater with epicenter within 150 km of USGS event us7000ti1p and origin time between 2026-09-18 00:00 UTC and 2026-10-15 23:59 UTC.
• KKR-20260917-26 (61%, due 2026-10-20) Between 2026-09-18 and 2026-10-16, India or Pakistan officially acknowledges at least one of its own uniformed personnel killed by fire from the forces of the other country. — resolves on: TRUE if, between 2026-09-18 and 2026-10-16, the Indian Ministry of Defence, Indian Army, Pakistan ISPR, or Pakistan Navy officially acknowledges at least one of its own uniformed personnel killed by fire from the forces of the other country.
• KKR-20260917-31 (29%, due 2026-10-20) Between 2026-09-18 and 2026-10-16, Microsoft releases a fix and marks the Windows 11 domain trust and domain login issue introduced by update KB5124008 as Resolved. — resolves on: TRUE if Microsoft Windows release health or the KB5124008 support article shows the domain trust or domain login known issue with status Resolved and a resolution date between 2026-09-18 and 2026-10-16, on the live page or an archive.org capture.
• KKR-20260917-33 (29%, due 2026-10-19) Between 2026-09-18 00:00 UTC and 2026-10-15 23:59 UTC, an earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or greater occurs with epicenter within 150 km of USGS event us7000ti1p (M6.5, Fox Islands, Alaska, 2026-09-17). — resolves on: TRUE if the USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one event of magnitude 5.5 or greater with epicenter within 150 km of USGS event us7000ti1p and origin time between 2026-09-18 00:00 UTC and 2026-10-15 23:59 UTC.
• KKR-20260917-55 (25%, due 2026-10-19) Between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-15, the United States and Iran announce a ceasefire, truce, or formal end to hostilities, confirmed by a government statement or by at least two of Reuters, AP, or AFP. — resolves on: TRUE if Reuters, AP, or AFP report a US-Iran ceasefire, truce, or hostilities-end announcement dated between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-15; adjudicated 2026-10-19. FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260917-56 (30%, due 2026-10-12) Between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-08, India or Pakistan's government issues a formal diplomatic protest or demarche over this week's India-Pakistan naval ship collision, confirmed by a government statement or by Reuters, AP, or AFP. — resolves on: TRUE if India's MEA or Pakistan's Foreign Office issues a demarche or formal protest over the collision, reported by Reuters, AP, or AFP, dated 2026-09-17 to 2026-10-08; adjudicated 2026-10-12. FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260917-60 (60%, due 2026-10-12) Between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-08, Microsoft confirms a fix or re-release for the Windows 11 KB5124008 domain-trust break, via its Release Health dashboard or a Support advisory. — resolves on: TRUE if Microsoft's Release Health dashboard or Support site confirms a fix or re-release for the KB5124008 domain-trust issue between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-08; adjudicated 2026-10-12. FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260917-61 (65%, due 2026-10-19) Between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-15, the Riksdag holds a formal vote confirming a new Swedish prime minister following Ulf Kristersson's resignation, recorded in the Riksdag's own vote record. — resolves on: TRUE if the Riksdag's vote record shows a confirmation vote for a new prime minister dated 2026-09-17 to 2026-10-15; adjudicated 2026-10-19. FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260917-62 (25%, due 2026-10-12) Between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-08, Meta publicly confirms compliance with the Oversight Board ruling on deepfake removal, via a Meta Newsroom post or the Oversight Board's implementation tracker. — resolves on: TRUE if Meta Newsroom or the Oversight Board implementation tracker shows a confirmed compliance update on the deepfake ruling, dated 2026-09-17 to 2026-10-08; adjudicated 2026-10-12. FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260917-64 (35%, due 2026-10-05) Between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-01, an aftershock of magnitude 5.0 or greater occurs within 200 km of the M6.5 earthquake 165 km west of Nikolski, Alaska (USGS event us7000ti1p), per the USGS Earthquake Catalog. — resolves on: TRUE if the USGS Earthquake Catalog records an M5.0-or-greater event within 200 km of the Nikolski mainshock, dated 2026-09-17 to 2026-10-01; adjudicated 2026-10-05. FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260917-65 (61%, due 2026-10-19) Between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-15, the United States and Iran announce a ceasefire, truce, or formal end to hostilities, confirmed by a government statement or by at least two of Reuters, AP, or AFP. — resolves on: TRUE if Reuters, AP, or AFP report a US-Iran ceasefire, truce, or hostilities-end announcement dated between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-15; adjudicated 2026-10-19. FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260917-66 (61%, due 2026-10-12) Between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-08, India or Pakistan's government issues a formal diplomatic protest or demarche over this week's India-Pakistan naval ship collision, confirmed by a government statement or by Reuters, AP, or AFP. — resolves on: TRUE if India's MEA or Pakistan's Foreign Office issues a demarche or formal protest over the collision, reported by Reuters, AP, or AFP, dated 2026-09-17 to 2026-10-08; adjudicated 2026-10-12. FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260917-70 (29%, due 2026-10-12) Between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-08, Microsoft confirms a fix or re-release for the Windows 11 KB5124008 domain-trust break, via its Release Health dashboard or a Support advisory. — resolves on: TRUE if Microsoft's Release Health dashboard or Support site confirms a fix or re-release for the KB5124008 domain-trust issue between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-08; adjudicated 2026-10-12. FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260917-71 (40%, due 2026-10-19) Between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-15, the Riksdag holds a formal vote confirming a new Swedish prime minister following Ulf Kristersson's resignation, recorded in the Riksdag's own vote record. — resolves on: TRUE if the Riksdag's vote record shows a confirmation vote for a new prime minister dated 2026-09-17 to 2026-10-15; adjudicated 2026-10-19. FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260917-72 (40%, due 2026-10-12) Between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-08, Meta publicly confirms compliance with the Oversight Board ruling on deepfake removal, via a Meta Newsroom post or the Oversight Board's implementation tracker. — resolves on: TRUE if Meta Newsroom or the Oversight Board implementation tracker shows a confirmed compliance update on the deepfake ruling, dated 2026-09-17 to 2026-10-08; adjudicated 2026-10-12. FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260917-74 (29%, due 2026-10-05) Between 2026-09-17 and 2026-10-01, an aftershock of magnitude 5.0 or greater occurs within 200 km of the M6.5 earthquake 165 km west of Nikolski, Alaska (USGS event us7000ti1p), per the USGS Earthquake Catalog. — resolves on: TRUE if the USGS Earthquake Catalog records an M5.0-or-greater event within 200 km of the Nikolski mainshock, dated 2026-09-17 to 2026-10-01; adjudicated 2026-10-05. FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260918-03 (35%, due 2026-10-05) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a cyberattack exploiting CVE-2025-39964 will be reported by at least two independent sources (e.g., BleepingComputer, The Hacker News). — resolves on: At least two independent sources (e.g., BleepingComputer, The Hacker News) report a cyberattack exploiting CVE-2025-39964 between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260918-05 (30%, due 2026-10-05) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a new statement by Iran's IRGC regarding a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz will be confirmed by at least two independently biased sources (AXIS and WEST). — resolves on: At least two independently biased sources (one from AXIS, one from WEST) confirm a new statement by Iran's IRGC regarding a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260918-06 (25%, due 2026-10-05) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a major forest fire in South Africa will be reported by GDACS Alerts with a green alert level. — resolves on: GDACS Alerts reports a green forest fire notification in South Africa between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260918-07 (30%, due 2026-10-05) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a new vulnerability in Microsoft 365 will be exploited in a supply-chain attack, confirmed by BleepingComputer and The Hacker News. — resolves on: BleepingComputer and The Hacker News confirm a supply-chain attack exploiting a new vulnerability in Microsoft 365 between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260918-12 (35%, due 2026-10-01) Between 2026-09-18 and 2026-09-25, a new political scandal involving a U.S. federal official will be confirmed by at least two independent sources. — resolves on: At least two independent sources (e.g., Guardian World, CNBC Top News, NPR News) confirm a new political scandal involving a U.S. federal official between 2026-09-18 and 2026-09-25.
• KKR-20260918-13 (20%, due 2026-10-01) Between 2026-09-18 and 2026-09-25, a new cyberattack targeting Microsoft 365 will be confirmed by at least two independent sources. — resolves on: At least two independent sources (e.g., BleepingComputer, The Hacker News) confirm a new cyberattack targeting Microsoft 365 between 2026-09-18 and 2026-09-25.
• KKR-20260918-14 (30%, due 2026-10-01) Between 2026-09-18 and 2026-09-25, a new flood warning will be issued by the USGS or GDACS for a region in the United States. — resolves on: The USGS Significant Quakes or GDACS Alerts catalog issues a new flood warning for a region in the United States between 2026-09-18 and 2026-09-25.
• KKR-20260918-15 (25%, due 2026-10-01) Between 2026-09-18 and 2026-09-25, a new political resignation or indictment involving a senior official in the European Union will be confirmed by at least two independent sources. — resolves on: At least two independent sources (e.g., Guardian World, BBC World, Al Jazeera) confirm a new political resignation or indictment involving a senior EU official between 2026-09-18 and 2026-09-25.
• KKR-20260918-16 (30%, due 2026-10-20) The critical Check Point root code-execution flaw reported 18 Sep 2026 is added to the CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value between 2026-09-18 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed lists a Check Point entry with dateAdded between 2026-09-18 and 2026-10-16 inclusive matching the flaw in item 12; FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260918-17 (55%, due 2026-10-20) A Russian presidential decree placing Nestle Russian assets under temporary state management is published on the official legal portal publication.pravo.gov.ru between 2026-09-18 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if publication.pravo.gov.ru or kremlin.ru carries a decree dated 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-16 inclusive naming Nestle entities for temporary management or asset transfer; FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260918-18 (60%, due 2026-10-20) The Philippine Coast Guard publicly reports a new collision, ramming, or water-cannon incident involving a Chinese government vessel in the South China Sea between 2026-09-19 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if an official Philippine Coast Guard statement describes such an incident occurring 2026-09-19 to 2026-10-16 inclusive and at least one wire service (Reuters, AP, or AFP) reports it; FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260918-19 (55%, due 2026-10-20) UKMTO or JMIC issues an incident advisory for an attack on a merchant vessel in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb, or Gulf of Aden occurring between 2026-09-19 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if the UKMTO or JMIC public advisory feed records a projectile, drone, or boarding attack on a merchant vessel in those waters dated 2026-09-19 to 2026-10-16 inclusive; FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260918-20 (55%, due 2026-10-22) The US government files a notice of appeal against the district court ruling blocking demolition of the Kennedy Center, docketed between 2026-09-18 and 2026-10-19. — resolves on: TRUE if the relevant federal district court docket on PACER or CourtListener shows a notice of appeal by the federal defendants entered 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-19 inclusive; FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260918-21 (29%, due 2026-10-20) The critical Check Point root code-execution flaw reported 18 Sep 2026 is added to the CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value between 2026-09-18 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed lists a Check Point entry with dateAdded between 2026-09-18 and 2026-10-16 inclusive matching the flaw in item 12; FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260918-22 (24%, due 2026-10-20) A Russian presidential decree placing Nestle Russian assets under temporary state management is published on the official legal portal publication.pravo.gov.ru between 2026-09-18 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if publication.pravo.gov.ru or kremlin.ru carries a decree dated 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-16 inclusive naming Nestle entities for temporary management or asset transfer; FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260918-23 (61%, due 2026-10-20) The Philippine Coast Guard publicly reports a new collision, ramming, or water-cannon incident involving a Chinese government vessel in the South China Sea between 2026-09-19 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if an official Philippine Coast Guard statement describes such an incident occurring 2026-09-19 to 2026-10-16 inclusive and at least one wire service (Reuters, AP, or AFP) reports it; FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260918-24 (61%, due 2026-10-20) UKMTO or JMIC issues an incident advisory for an attack on a merchant vessel in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb, or Gulf of Aden occurring between 2026-09-19 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if the UKMTO or JMIC public advisory feed records a projectile, drone, or boarding attack on a merchant vessel in those waters dated 2026-09-19 to 2026-10-16 inclusive; FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260918-25 (40%, due 2026-10-22) The US government files a notice of appeal against the district court ruling blocking demolition of the Kennedy Center, docketed between 2026-09-18 and 2026-10-19. — resolves on: TRUE if the relevant federal district court docket on PACER or CourtListener shows a notice of appeal by the federal defendants entered 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-19 inclusive; FALSE otherwise.
• KKR-20260918-46 (20%, due 2026-10-20) The United States military conducts a direct kinetic strike (missile, air, or naval gunfire) against Houthi forces or positions at or near the Bab el-Mandeb strait between 2026-09-25 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if Reuters, AP, or BBC report a confirmed US strike on Houthi targets at or near Bab el-Mandeb in the stated window; checked 2026-10-20 using wire-service and CENTCOM reporting.
• KKR-20260918-47 (25%, due 2026-10-20) WTI crude oil (NYMEX front-month futures) settles at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on any trading day between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-16. Reference: 96.92 on the packet date, 2026-09-18. — resolves on: TRUE if CME/NYMEX front-month WTI settlement data show a close at or above 100.00 USD/bbl on any session between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-16; checked 2026-10-20 against exchange records.
• KKR-20260918-48 (22%, due 2026-10-20) The Nasdaq index closes at or above 27717.70, five percent above the packet reference, on any trading day between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-16. Reference: 26397.81 on the packet date, 2026-09-18. — resolves on: TRUE if Nasdaq closing data show a close at or above 27717.70 on any session between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-16; checked 2026-10-20 against exchange or major financial-data-provider records.
• KKR-20260918-51 (8%, due 2026-10-06) GDACS raises its alert level above Green, to Orange or Red, for the Italy forest fire logged as event 1032034, already in its 59th day of coverage as of 2026-09-18, between 2026-09-18 and 2026-10-02. — resolves on: TRUE if the GDACS report page for event 1032034 shows an Orange or Red alert level at any point between 2026-09-18 and 2026-10-02; checked 2026-10-06 via gdacs.org.
• KKR-20260918-54 (61%, due 2026-10-20) The United States military conducts a direct kinetic strike (missile, air, or naval gunfire) against Houthi forces or positions at or near the Bab el-Mandeb strait between 2026-09-25 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if Reuters, AP, or BBC report a confirmed US strike on Houthi targets at or near Bab el-Mandeb in the stated window; checked 2026-10-20 using wire-service and CENTCOM reporting.
• KKR-20260918-55 (24%, due 2026-10-20) WTI crude oil (NYMEX front-month futures) settles at or above 100.00 USD per barrel on any trading day between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-16. Reference: 96.92 on the packet date, 2026-09-18. — resolves on: TRUE if CME/NYMEX front-month WTI settlement data show a close at or above 100.00 USD/bbl on any session between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-16; checked 2026-10-20 against exchange records.
• KKR-20260918-56 (24%, due 2026-10-20) The Nasdaq index closes at or above 27717.70, five percent above the packet reference, on any trading day between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-16. Reference: 26397.81 on the packet date, 2026-09-18. — resolves on: TRUE if Nasdaq closing data show a close at or above 27717.70 on any session between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-16; checked 2026-10-20 against exchange or major financial-data-provider records.
• KKR-20260918-59 (29%, due 2026-10-06) GDACS raises its alert level above Green, to Orange or Red, for the Italy forest fire logged as event 1032034, already in its 59th day of coverage as of 2026-09-18, between 2026-09-18 and 2026-10-02. — resolves on: TRUE if the GDACS report page for event 1032034 shows an Orange or Red alert level at any point between 2026-09-18 and 2026-10-02; checked 2026-10-06 via gdacs.org.
• KKR-20260919-04 (20%, due 2026-10-01) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, a new exploit for CVE-2026-53266 will be publicly disclosed in a security advisory. — resolves on: A new public exploit for CVE-2026-53266 is disclosed in a security advisory between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260919-09 (30%, due 2026-10-05) Between 2026-09-20 and 2026-09-26, at least one new exploit for CVE-2026-53266 will be publicly disclosed. — resolves on: At least one public exploit for CVE-2026-53266 is disclosed in a credible source by 2026-09-26.
• KKR-20260919-12 (20%, due 2026-10-20) The CISA KEV catalog adds the SolarWinds ARM hard-coded key vulnerability disclosed 2026-09-19, with a date-added value between 2026-09-19 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: The CISA KEV JSON feed contains an entry with vendorProject SolarWinds and product Access Rights Manager or ARM whose dateAdded falls between 2026-09-19 and 2026-10-16 inclusive.
• KKR-20260919-14 (65%, due 2026-10-20) The Federal Register publishes an executive order or OFAC notice terminating or removing Eritrea-related sanctions with a publication date between 2026-09-19 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: federalregister.gov shows a document whose title or abstract names Eritrea and terminates, revokes or removes sanctions authorities or designations, with publication_date between 2026-09-19 and 2026-10-16 inclusive.
• KKR-20260919-15 (55%, due 2026-10-22) Cuba suffers another full collapse of its national electrical grid between 2026-09-20 and 2026-10-20, publicly acknowledged by the Union Electrica or the Ministry of Energy and Mines. — resolves on: Union Electrica or Cuba's Ministry of Energy and Mines acknowledges a total disconnection of the Sistema Electroenergetico Nacional occurring between 2026-09-20 and 2026-10-20 inclusive, corroborated by at least two of Reuters, AP, AFP and EFE.
• KKR-20260919-17 (29%, due 2026-10-20) The CISA KEV catalog adds the SolarWinds ARM hard-coded key vulnerability disclosed 2026-09-19, with a date-added value between 2026-09-19 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: The CISA KEV JSON feed contains an entry with vendorProject SolarWinds and product Access Rights Manager or ARM whose dateAdded falls between 2026-09-19 and 2026-10-16 inclusive.
• KKR-20260919-19 (40%, due 2026-10-20) The Federal Register publishes an executive order or OFAC notice terminating or removing Eritrea-related sanctions with a publication date between 2026-09-19 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: federalregister.gov shows a document whose title or abstract names Eritrea and terminates, revokes or removes sanctions authorities or designations, with publication_date between 2026-09-19 and 2026-10-16 inclusive.
• KKR-20260919-20 (29%, due 2026-10-22) Cuba suffers another full collapse of its national electrical grid between 2026-09-20 and 2026-10-20, publicly acknowledged by the Union Electrica or the Ministry of Energy and Mines. — resolves on: Union Electrica or Cuba's Ministry of Energy and Mines acknowledges a total disconnection of the Sistema Electroenergetico Nacional occurring between 2026-09-20 and 2026-10-20 inclusive, corroborated by at least two of Reuters, AP, AFP and EFE.
• KKR-20260919-33 (65%, due 2026-10-19) CISA will add at least one Linux Kernel entry to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with dateAdded between 2026-09-26 and 2026-10-17. — resolves on: TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog lists a Linux Kernel entry with dateAdded in 2026-09-26 to 2026-10-17, checked 2026-10-19; else FALSE.
• KKR-20260919-34 (12%, due 2026-10-12) GDACS event 1032222, the Australia forest fire tracked Green since day 60 of coverage, will be upgraded to Orange or Red between 2026-09-26 and 2026-10-10. — resolves on: TRUE if the GDACS report page for event 1032222 shows Orange or Red alert level at any point in the window, checked 2026-10-12; else FALSE.
• KKR-20260919-37 (35%, due 2026-10-19) The Polish Ministry of National Defence, its Operational Command, or NATO will confirm a Russian-origin drone or missile entered Polish airspace between 2026-09-26 and 2026-10-17. — resolves on: TRUE if Polish authorities or NATO officially confirm a Russian-origin airspace incursion dated 2026-09-26 to 2026-10-17, wire-reported by 2026-10-19; else FALSE.
• KKR-20260919-38 (25%, due 2026-10-13) The Saudi Press Agency or Saudi Ministry of Defence will publicly attribute the 19 Sep 2026 Riyadh alerts and airport-area smoke to hostile launch or false alarm, between 2026-09-26 and 2026-10-10. — resolves on: TRUE if SPA or the Saudi MOD states a cause, hostile launch or false alarm, in the window, confirmed by Reuters or AP, checked 2026-10-13; else FALSE.
• KKR-20260919-40 (29%, due 2026-10-19) CISA will add at least one Linux Kernel entry to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with dateAdded between 2026-09-26 and 2026-10-17. — resolves on: TRUE if the CISA KEV catalog lists a Linux Kernel entry with dateAdded in 2026-09-26 to 2026-10-17, checked 2026-10-19; else FALSE.
• KKR-20260919-41 (29%, due 2026-10-12) GDACS event 1032222, the Australia forest fire tracked Green since day 60 of coverage, will be upgraded to Orange or Red between 2026-09-26 and 2026-10-10. — resolves on: TRUE if the GDACS report page for event 1032222 shows Orange or Red alert level at any point in the window, checked 2026-10-12; else FALSE.
• KKR-20260919-44 (61%, due 2026-10-19) The Polish Ministry of National Defence, its Operational Command, or NATO will confirm a Russian-origin drone or missile entered Polish airspace between 2026-09-26 and 2026-10-17. — resolves on: TRUE if Polish authorities or NATO officially confirm a Russian-origin airspace incursion dated 2026-09-26 to 2026-10-17, wire-reported by 2026-10-19; else FALSE.
• KKR-20260919-45 (23%, due 2026-10-13) The Saudi Press Agency or Saudi Ministry of Defence will publicly attribute the 19 Sep 2026 Riyadh alerts and airport-area smoke to hostile launch or false alarm, between 2026-09-26 and 2026-10-10. — resolves on: TRUE if SPA or the Saudi MOD states a cause, hostile launch or false alarm, in the window, confirmed by Reuters or AP, checked 2026-10-13; else FALSE.
• KKR-20260920-01 (30%, due 2026-10-01) Moscow was struck by a drone attack between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, resulting in at least one confirmed casualty. — resolves on: At least one confirmed casualty from a drone attack on Moscow is reported by at least two independent, non-aligned news outlets (e.g., BBC, Al Jazeera, Reuters, AP) between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260920-03 (40%, due 2026-10-01) Iran announces a new condition for ending its war with the U.S. between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, confirmed by at least two independent news outlets. — resolves on: At least two independent, non-aligned news outlets (e.g., Al Jazeera, BBC, Reuters) report that Iran has announced a new condition for ending its war with the U.S. between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260920-08 (25%, due 2026-10-01) A new cyberattack on a critical infrastructure system in Europe is confirmed by the EU Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA) between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24. — resolves on: ENISA issues a public advisory confirming a cyberattack on a critical infrastructure system in Europe between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-24, with the event date within that window.
• KKR-20260920-11 (15%, due 2026-10-07) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-27, a natural disaster in the U.S. will trigger a federal emergency declaration by the President. — resolves on: The President of the United States will issue a federal emergency declaration for a natural disaster occurring in the U.S. between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-27, as confirmed by a public statement from the White House.
• KKR-20260920-13 (22%, due 2026-10-07) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-27, a political scandal involving a U.S. federal official will result in a formal indictment by a grand jury. — resolves on: A U.S. federal grand jury will formally indict a sitting or former federal official for a crime related to official conduct, with the indictment publicly announced between 2026-09-21 and 2026-09-27.
• KKR-20260920-14 (45%, due 2026-10-07) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-04, the Russian Ministry of Defense or the Moscow mayor reports 100 or more Ukrainian UAVs intercepted over Moscow city or Moscow Oblast on a single calendar day. — resolves on: True if a Russian MoD or Moscow mayoral statement, carried by Reuters or AP, gives a single-day Moscow-region intercept count of 100 or more for any day 2026-09-21 to 2026-10-04.
• KKR-20260920-15 (45%, due 2026-10-07) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-04, the Saudi Ministry of Defense announces the interception or impact of at least one Houthi-claimed drone or missile directed at Riyadh. Reference: Riyadh airport smoke and Houthi claim on 2026-09-19. — resolves on: True if Saudi Press Agency publishes a MoD statement on a drone or missile aimed at Riyadh in the window and Reuters or AP carries it.
• KKR-20260920-16 (40%, due 2026-10-20) The NYMEX WTI front-month contract settles below 90.00 dollars on at least one trading day between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-16. Reference: 96.08 on the packet date after a 9.21 percent one-day fall. — resolves on: True if the CME Group official settlement for front-month WTI is below 90.00 on any trading day 2026-09-21 to 2026-10-16.
• KKR-20260920-18 (15%, due 2026-10-06) The CISA KEV catalog gains an entry with a date-added value between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-02 for a vulnerability whose product field names an npm package, the npm CLI, or the Node.js runtime. — resolves on: True if the CISA KEV JSON feed contains an entry with dateAdded in the window and a product or vendor field matching npm or Node.js.
• KKR-20260920-20 (61%, due 2026-10-07) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-04, the Russian Ministry of Defense or the Moscow mayor reports 100 or more Ukrainian UAVs intercepted over Moscow city or Moscow Oblast on a single calendar day. — resolves on: True if a Russian MoD or Moscow mayoral statement, carried by Reuters or AP, gives a single-day Moscow-region intercept count of 100 or more for any day 2026-09-21 to 2026-10-04.
• KKR-20260920-21 (61%, due 2026-10-07) Between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-04, the Saudi Ministry of Defense announces the interception or impact of at least one Houthi-claimed drone or missile directed at Riyadh. Reference: Riyadh airport smoke and Houthi claim on 2026-09-19. — resolves on: True if Saudi Press Agency publishes a MoD statement on a drone or missile aimed at Riyadh in the window and Reuters or AP carries it.
• KKR-20260920-22 (24%, due 2026-10-20) The NYMEX WTI front-month contract settles below 90.00 dollars on at least one trading day between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-16. Reference: 96.08 on the packet date after a 9.21 percent one-day fall. — resolves on: True if the CME Group official settlement for front-month WTI is below 90.00 on any trading day 2026-09-21 to 2026-10-16.
• KKR-20260920-24 (29%, due 2026-10-06) The CISA KEV catalog gains an entry with a date-added value between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-02 for a vulnerability whose product field names an npm package, the npm CLI, or the Node.js runtime. — resolves on: True if the CISA KEV JSON feed contains an entry with dateAdded in the window and a product or vendor field matching npm or Node.js.
• KKR-20260920-41 (15%, due 2026-10-21) A formal ceasefire or truce between the United States and Iran, confirmed by matching statements from the US State Department or White House and the Iranian Foreign Ministry, is announced between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-19. — resolves on: Official US and Iranian government channels each issue a statement describing a ceasefire, truce, or armistice ending hostilities between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-19, corroborated by a wire service.
• KKR-20260920-44 (20%, due 2026-10-21) The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry, with dateAdded between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-19, for a vulnerability in the class of AI coding-agent sandbox escapes or malicious npm package supply-chain compromise, matching the techniques reported 20 September 2026. — resolves on: The CISA KEV catalog lists a CVE with dateAdded between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-19 whose description matches sandbox-escape or npm supply-chain compromise techniques.
• KKR-20260920-48 (61%, due 2026-10-21) A formal ceasefire or truce between the United States and Iran, confirmed by matching statements from the US State Department or White House and the Iranian Foreign Ministry, is announced between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-19. — resolves on: Official US and Iranian government channels each issue a statement describing a ceasefire, truce, or armistice ending hostilities between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-19, corroborated by a wire service.
• KKR-20260920-51 (29%, due 2026-10-21) The CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds an entry, with dateAdded between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-19, for a vulnerability in the class of AI coding-agent sandbox escapes or malicious npm package supply-chain compromise, matching the techniques reported 20 September 2026. — resolves on: The CISA KEV catalog lists a CVE with dateAdded between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-19 whose description matches sandbox-escape or npm supply-chain compromise techniques.
• KKR-20260921-12 (30%, due 2026-10-05) Between 2026-09-27 and 2026-10-01, a cyberattack targeting a U.S. federal agency will be confirmed by two or more independent sources (one from a Western outlet, one from a non-Western outlet), with the attack involving a PowerShell backdoor. — resolves on: Two or more independent sources (one from a Western outlet, one from a non-Western outlet) confirm a cyberattack on a U.S. federal agency involving a PowerShell backdoor between 2026-09-27 and 2026-10-01.
• KKR-20260921-13 (35%, due 2026-10-06) Between 2026-09-30 and 2026-10-04, a major flood event in the U.S. Midwest will be confirmed by the National Weather Service, with at least one flood warning or watch issued for a county in Iowa or Ohio. — resolves on: The National Weather Service issues at least one flood warning or watch for a county in Iowa or Ohio between 2026-09-30 and 2026-10-04.
• KKR-20260921-30 (50%, due 2026-10-07) South Africa's NPA will file formal charges against at least one of the three men held in the murder case, between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-05. — resolves on: True if the NPA or a South African court record, per Reuters/BBC, shows charges filed against at least one man in that window.
• KKR-20260921-37 (23%, due 2026-10-07) South Africa's NPA will file formal charges against at least one of the three men held in the murder case, between 2026-09-21 and 2026-10-05. — resolves on: True if the NPA or a South African court record, per Reuters/BBC, shows charges filed against at least one man in that window.
• KKR-20260921-40 (35%, due 2026-10-20) NYMEX front-month WTI crude settles below 85.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-22 and 2026-10-16. Reference: 92.25 on the packet date. — resolves on: CME NYMEX official daily settlement for the front-month CL contract prints below 85.00 on any trading day 2026-09-22 through 2026-10-16.
• KKR-20260921-49 (24%, due 2026-10-20) NYMEX front-month WTI crude settles below 85.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-09-22 and 2026-10-16. Reference: 92.25 on the packet date. — resolves on: CME NYMEX official daily settlement for the front-month CL contract prints below 85.00 on any trading day 2026-09-22 through 2026-10-16.
• KKR-20260922-03 (35%, due 2026-10-05) Between 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-28, the USGS reports a significant earthquake (M ≥ 6.0) in the Pacific Northwest. — resolves on: The USGS Significant Quakes feed reports an earthquake with magnitude ≥ 6.0 in the Pacific Northwest region during the window.
• KKR-20260922-04 (40%, due 2026-10-07) Between 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-28, Iran's delegation to the UN General Assembly delivers a statement asserting that the Strait of Hormuz is open and secure. — resolves on: Iran's delegation to the UN General Assembly delivers a statement during the window asserting that the Strait of Hormuz is open and secure.
• KKR-20260922-05 (30%, due 2026-10-05) Between 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-28, the Houthis launch a coordinated attack on a Red Sea port in Yemen resulting in at least one casualty. — resolves on: At least one report from a hostile side confirms a coordinated attack by the Houthis on a Red Sea port in Yemen during the window with at least one casualty stated.
• KKR-20260922-07 (35%, due 2026-10-05) Between 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-28, a new vulnerability with CVSS score 10.0 is added to the CISA KEV catalog. — resolves on: The CISA KEV catalog includes a new vulnerability with a CVSS score of 10.0 during the window.
• KKR-20260922-08 (25%, due 2026-10-06) Between 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-29, at least one report from a hostile side in the Iran Theatre will confirm a drone or missile strike on Tehran with casualties exceeding 5. — resolves on: At least one corroborated report from a hostile side (AXIS, IL, WEST) confirms a drone or missile strike on Tehran during the event window with casualties exceeding 5.
• KKR-20260922-09 (20%, due 2026-10-06) Between 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-29, at least one report from a hostile side in the Iran Theatre will confirm a cyberattack on a critical infrastructure system in the United States. — resolves on: At least one corroborated report from a hostile side (AXIS, WEST) confirms a cyberattack on a critical infrastructure system in the United States during the event window.
• KKR-20260922-13 (30%, due 2026-10-22) The CISA KEV catalog adds an entry for a Microsoft Defender or Windows Defender vulnerability with a date-added value between 2026-09-22 and 2026-10-20. — resolves on: True if the CISA KEV catalog contains an entry whose product field references Microsoft Defender or Windows Defender and whose dateAdded is between 2026-09-22 and 2026-10-20 inclusive.
• KKR-20260922-14 (30%, due 2026-10-22) Between 2026-09-22 and 2026-10-20, at least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, and BBC report that Houthi forces have taken control of the Kahboub Mountains in Yemen. — resolves on: True if at least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC publish reports dated 2026-09-22 to 2026-10-20 stating Houthi forces control the Kahboub Mountains or Kahboub heights.
• KKR-20260922-21 (29%, due 2026-10-22) The CISA KEV catalog adds an entry for a Microsoft Defender or Windows Defender vulnerability with a date-added value between 2026-09-22 and 2026-10-20. — resolves on: True if the CISA KEV catalog contains an entry whose product field references Microsoft Defender or Windows Defender and whose dateAdded is between 2026-09-22 and 2026-10-20 inclusive.
• KKR-20260922-22 (61%, due 2026-10-22) Between 2026-09-22 and 2026-10-20, at least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, and BBC report that Houthi forces have taken control of the Kahboub Mountains in Yemen. — resolves on: True if at least two of Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC publish reports dated 2026-09-22 to 2026-10-20 stating Houthi forces control the Kahboub Mountains or Kahboub heights.
• KKR-20260923-04 (20%, due 2026-10-07) Between 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-24, a mass shooting resulting in four or more fatalities will be reported in South Africa with corroboration from at least two independent outlets. — resolves on: A mass shooting resulting in four or more fatalities is reported in South Africa between 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-24, with corroboration from at least two independent outlets.
• KKR-20260923-06 (15%, due 2026-10-07) Between 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-24, the UN General Assembly will adopt a resolution calling for a ceasefire in the Israel-Gaza conflict, with support from at least three permanent members. — resolves on: The UN General Assembly adopts a resolution calling for a ceasefire in the Israel-Gaza conflict between 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-24, with support from at least three permanent members.
• KKR-20260923-07 (28%, due 2026-10-07) Between 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-24, a confirmed ransomware attack using the Ryuk variant will be reported by a major cybersecurity firm. — resolves on: A confirmed ransomware attack using the Ryuk variant is reported by a major cybersecurity firm between 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-24.
• KKR-20260923-10 (25%, due 2026-10-07) Between 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-29, a major flood warning will be issued by the USGS for a location in Iowa. — resolves on: The USGS issues a major flood warning for a location in Iowa between 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-29.
• KKR-20260923-11 (30%, due 2026-10-07) Between 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-29, at least one major cyberattack will be attributed to Chinese state-linked actors by a U.S. government agency. — resolves on: A U.S. government agency attributes a major cyberattack to Chinese state-linked actors between 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-29.
• KKR-20260923-12 (20%, due 2026-10-07) Between 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-29, Iran will issue a public statement claiming a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is underway. — resolves on: Iran issues a public statement claiming a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is underway between 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-29.
• KKR-20260923-48 (40%, due 2026-10-12) Between 2026-09-24 and 2026-10-08, the South African Police Service publicly announces the arrest of at least one suspect in the eleven-fatality house shooting reported 2026-09-23. — resolves on: SAPS or a wire service reports a named arrest tied to this specific shooting during the window; an investigation continuing with no suspect in custody by the deadline is a MISS.
• KKR-20260923-55 (29%, due 2026-10-12) Between 2026-09-24 and 2026-10-08, the South African Police Service publicly announces the arrest of at least one suspect in the eleven-fatality house shooting reported 2026-09-23. — resolves on: SAPS or a wire service reports a named arrest tied to this specific shooting during the window; an investigation continuing with no suspect in custody by the deadline is a MISS.
• KKR-20260924-01 (25%, due 2026-10-07) On 2026-10-05, the CISA KEV catalog will include at least one new entry for a vulnerability exploited in a critical infrastructure attack between 2026-09-24 and 2026-10-04. — resolves on: The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-09-24 and 2026-10-04 for a vulnerability that was actively exploited in a confirmed attack on a critical infrastructure system.
• KKR-20260924-02 (30%, due 2026-10-10) Between 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-07, a drone strike will be confirmed by at least two hostile sides in the Gaza City area. — resolves on: At least two hostile sides (IL, PS, AXIS) will independently report a drone strike in Gaza City between 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-07, with corroborating reports from distinct channels.
• KKR-20260924-49 (15%, due 2026-10-10) The GDACS wildfire alert for event ID 1032372 in Brazil will be upgraded from Green to Orange or Red, between 2026-09-24 and 2026-10-08. — resolves on: The GDACS report page for eventid=1032372 at gdacs.org shows an Orange or Red alert level at any point between 2026-09-24 and 2026-10-08, checked 2026-10-10.
• KKR-20260924-57 (31%, due 2026-10-10) The GDACS wildfire alert for event ID 1032372 in Brazil will be upgraded from Green to Orange or Red, between 2026-09-24 and 2026-10-08. — resolves on: The GDACS report page for eventid=1032372 at gdacs.org shows an Orange or Red alert level at any point between 2026-09-24 and 2026-10-08, checked 2026-10-10.
• KKR-20260925-02 (75%, due 2026-10-04) Between 2026-09-26 and 2026-10-02, the CISA KEV catalog will list at least one new exploited vulnerability in a critical infrastructure system. — resolves on: The CISA KEV catalog carries at least one new exploited vulnerability in a critical infrastructure system between 2026-09-26 and 2026-10-02.
• KKR-20260925-04 (40%, due 2026-10-06) Between 2026-09-26 and 2026-10-02, a new tropical cyclone will be designated as a Category 3 or higher storm by the National Hurricane Center. — resolves on: The National Hurricane Center designates a new tropical cyclone as Category 3 or higher between 2026-09-26 and 2026-10-02.
• KKR-20260925-05 (35%, due 2026-10-04) Between 2026-09-26 and 2026-10-02, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve will report a level below 350 million barrels. — resolves on: The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve reports a level below 350 million barrels on or before 2026-10-02.
• KKR-20260925-42 (62%, due 2026-10-20) At least two independent outlets will report a specific clash, casualty event, or territorial change involving Ethiopian federal forces and Tigrayan (TPLF-aligned) forces occurring between 2026-10-02 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: Two independent outlets (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, Addis Standard) report a specific clash, casualty event, or territorial change involving Ethiopian federal and Tigrayan forces, dated within 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-16.
• KKR-20260925-44 (75%, due 2026-10-06) Pakistani authorities will arrest or detain at least one PTI member or supporter in connection with the Islamabad march, between 2026-09-26 and 2026-10-04. — resolves on: Two independent outlets (e.g. Dawn, Reuters, Al Jazeera, AP) report the arrest or detention of at least one PTI member, supporter, or organizer tied to the Islamabad march, with an arrest date between 2026-09-26 and 2026-10-04.
• KKR-20260925-48 (64%, due 2026-10-20) At least two independent outlets will report a specific clash, casualty event, or territorial change involving Ethiopian federal forces and Tigrayan (TPLF-aligned) forces occurring between 2026-10-02 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: Two independent outlets (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, Addis Standard) report a specific clash, casualty event, or territorial change involving Ethiopian federal and Tigrayan forces, dated within 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-16.
• KKR-20260925-50 (39%, due 2026-10-06) Pakistani authorities will arrest or detain at least one PTI member or supporter in connection with the Islamabad march, between 2026-09-26 and 2026-10-04. — resolves on: Two independent outlets (e.g. Dawn, Reuters, Al Jazeera, AP) report the arrest or detention of at least one PTI member, supporter, or organizer tied to the Islamabad march, with an arrest date between 2026-09-26 and 2026-10-04.
• KKR-20260926-11 (85%, due 2026-10-22) Between 2026-09-27 and 2026-10-19 the Israeli Supreme Court reverses the Central Elections Committee disqualifications of both the Joint List (Hadash, Taal, Balad) and the United Arab List (Raam), clearing both to run in the 2026-10-27 Knesset election. — resolves on: Supreme Court rulings dated between 2026-09-27 and 2026-10-19 overturn the CEC disqualification of both the Joint List and the United Arab List, and both appear on the official candidate lists for 2026-10-27; either still barred is false.
• KKR-20260926-21 (39%, due 2026-10-22) Between 2026-09-27 and 2026-10-19 the Israeli Supreme Court reverses the Central Elections Committee disqualifications of both the Joint List (Hadash, Taal, Balad) and the United Arab List (Raam), clearing both to run in the 2026-10-27 Knesset election. — resolves on: Supreme Court rulings dated between 2026-09-27 and 2026-10-19 overturn the CEC disqualification of both the Joint List and the United Arab List, and both appear on the official candidate lists for 2026-10-27; either still barred is false.
• KKR-20260927-01 (30%, due 2026-10-20) Between 2026-10-10 and 2026-10-17, at least one drone strike using a Shahed-type UAV will be reported by two or more independently biased sources in the Odesa region of Ukraine. — resolves on: At least one drone strike using a Shahed-type UAV in the Odesa region will be reported by two or more sources from distinct hostile sides (RU, UA, WEST) with no overlap in channel ownership.
• KKR-20260927-04 (35%, due 2026-10-10) Between 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-08, at least one confirmed cyberattack exploiting the Citrix NetScaler RCE vulnerability (CVE-2026-XXXX) will be reported by two or more independent sources. — resolves on: At least one cyberattack exploiting the Citrix NetScaler RCE vulnerability (CVE-2026-XXXX) will be reported by two or more sources from distinct hostile sides (e.g., RU, WEST, IL) during the event window.
• KKR-20260927-05 (40%, due 2026-10-21) Between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19, the White House will issue a formal statement rejecting Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. — resolves on: A formal statement issued by the White House on or before 2026-10-19 will explicitly reject Iran's seven-day peace proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• KKR-20260927-11 (30%, due 2026-10-20) CISA issues an Emergency Directive naming Citrix NetScaler ADC or NetScaler Gateway, with an issue date between 2026-09-27 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if the CISA directives page lists an Emergency Directive (any ED number) naming NetScaler ADC or NetScaler Gateway, dated between 2026-09-27 and 2026-10-16. Binding Operational Directives, alerts, and KEV additions do not count.
• KKR-20260927-21 (32%, due 2026-10-20) CISA issues an Emergency Directive naming Citrix NetScaler ADC or NetScaler Gateway, with an issue date between 2026-09-27 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if the CISA directives page lists an Emergency Directive (any ED number) naming NetScaler ADC or NetScaler Gateway, dated between 2026-09-27 and 2026-10-16. Binding Operational Directives, alerts, and KEV additions do not count.
• KKR-20260927-29 (75%, due 2026-10-19) CISA adds at least one new Citrix NetScaler ADC or Gateway CVE to the KEV catalog between 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed carries an entry with vendorProject Citrix, product naming NetScaler, a CVE other than CVE-2026-19490 or CVE-2026-19489, and dateAdded between 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-16.
• KKR-20260927-36 (32%, due 2026-10-19) CISA adds at least one new Citrix NetScaler ADC or Gateway CVE to the KEV catalog between 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: TRUE if the CISA KEV JSON feed carries an entry with vendorProject Citrix, product naming NetScaler, a CVE other than CVE-2026-19490 or CVE-2026-19489, and dateAdded between 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-16.
• KKR-20260927-43 (30%, due 2026-10-20) Microsoft will document a resumed rollout or a replacement fix for the KB5002907 Office license-deactivation issue between 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-18. — resolves on: True if Microsoft's Release Health dashboard or a support.microsoft.com KB article confirms KB5002907, or its direct successor patch, is fixed and redistributed inside the window; false otherwise.
• KKR-20260927-48 (55%, due 2026-10-14) South African Police Service will announce at least one arrest connected to either of the two mass shootings reported on 2026-09-27 in Johannesburg and Cape Town, between 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-12. — resolves on: True if SAPS, News24, or Reuters reports a named arrest tied to either shooting, dated inside the window; false otherwise.
• KKR-20260927-51 (32%, due 2026-10-20) Microsoft will document a resumed rollout or a replacement fix for the KB5002907 Office license-deactivation issue between 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-18. — resolves on: True if Microsoft's Release Health dashboard or a support.microsoft.com KB article confirms KB5002907, or its direct successor patch, is fixed and redistributed inside the window; false otherwise.
• KKR-20260927-56 (29%, due 2026-10-14) South African Police Service will announce at least one arrest connected to either of the two mass shootings reported on 2026-09-27 in Johannesburg and Cape Town, between 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-12. — resolves on: True if SAPS, News24, or Reuters reports a named arrest tied to either shooting, dated inside the window; false otherwise.
• KKR-20260928-04 (30%, due 2026-10-14) Iran will publicly announce a new military or strategic initiative related to the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-10-05 and 2026-10-12, confirmed by at least two independent sources from hostile sides (AXIS, WEST). — resolves on: At least two reports from sources in AXIS and WEST, including Al Jazeera, BBC World, or The Guardian, confirm Iran's announcement of a new military or strategic initiative related to the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-10-05 and 2026-10-12.
• KKR-20260928-08 (30%, due 2026-10-20) Between 2026-10-10 and 2026-10-17, at least one confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-88771 or CVE-2026-88772 will be reported by two independent sources with hostile bias. — resolves on: At least one confirmed cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-88771 or CVE-2026-88772 is reported by two independent sources with hostile bias between 2026-10-10 and 2026-10-17.
• KKR-20260928-40 (17%, due 2026-10-22) Between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-20, the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one further Citrix NetScaler vulnerability, beyond the two Citrix NetScaler entries added on 2026-09-27. — resolves on: CISA KEV JSON contains an entry with vendorProject Citrix, product referencing NetScaler, dateAdded between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-20 inclusive, and a cveID different from the two Citrix entries dated 2026-09-27.
• KKR-20260928-45 (90%, due 2026-10-20) Between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-16, the Australian Greens party room elects a new federal parliamentary leader to replace Larissa Waters, who announced on 2026-09-28 that she is stepping down. — resolves on: The Greens or two of ABC, Guardian Australia, and AAP report a party room vote choosing a new federal leader between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-16; acting or interim appointments do not count.
• KKR-20260928-47 (32%, due 2026-10-22) Between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-20, the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds at least one further Citrix NetScaler vulnerability, beyond the two Citrix NetScaler entries added on 2026-09-27. — resolves on: CISA KEV JSON contains an entry with vendorProject Citrix, product referencing NetScaler, dateAdded between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-20 inclusive, and a cveID different from the two Citrix entries dated 2026-09-27.
• KKR-20260928-52 (39%, due 2026-10-20) Between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-16, the Australian Greens party room elects a new federal parliamentary leader to replace Larissa Waters, who announced on 2026-09-28 that she is stepping down. — resolves on: The Greens or two of ABC, Guardian Australia, and AAP report a party room vote choosing a new federal leader between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-16; acting or interim appointments do not count.
• KKR-20260929-02 (25%, due 2026-10-08) Between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-06, a new vulnerability in the OpenAI GPT-6.1 Astra model is publicly disclosed and exploited in at least one real-world attack. — resolves on: A new vulnerability in the OpenAI GPT-6.1 Astra model is publicly disclosed and exploited in at least one real-world attack between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-06.
• KKR-20260929-03 (30%, due 2026-10-08) Between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-06, a new cyberattack using the JadePuffer agentic AI framework targets Azure cloud infrastructure. — resolves on: A new cyberattack using the JadePuffer agentic AI framework targets Azure cloud infrastructure between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-06.
• KKR-20260929-04 (15%, due 2026-10-08) Between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-06, a new political scandal involving a US senator and a foreign government is reported by two independent wire services. — resolves on: A new political scandal involving a US senator and a foreign government is reported by two independent wire services (e.g., Reuters, AP, Bloomberg) between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-06.
• KKR-20260929-05 (25%, due 2026-10-10) Between 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-07, at least one report from a hostile side will confirm that a drone strike occurred in Jabalia, Gaza City, with casualties claimed by at least one side. — resolves on: At least one report from a hostile side (IL, PS, or AXIS) will confirm a drone strike in Jabalia, Gaza City, during the window, with casualties claimed in at least one corroborating report
• KKR-20260929-07 (30%, due 2026-10-18) Between 2026-10-08 and 2026-10-14, at least one report from a hostile side will confirm that a cruise missile was launched from Zaporizhzhia toward Kyiv. — resolves on: At least one report from a hostile side (RU or UA) will confirm a cruise missile launch from Zaporizhzhia toward Kyiv during the window, with weapons reported in at least one corroborating report
• KKR-20260930-01 (25%, due 2026-10-22) Between 2026-10-10 and 2026-10-17, at least one report from a hostile side in the Iran Theatre will corroborate a missile launch from Tehran toward the Strait of Hormuz. — resolves on: At least one report from a hostile side in the Iran Theatre corroborates a missile launch from Tehran toward the Strait of Hormuz between 2026-10-10 and 2026-10-17.
• KKR-20260930-07 (40%, due 2026-10-12) Between 2026-10-03 and 2026-10-10, the CISA KEV catalog will include at least one new vulnerability with a severity rating of 'Critical' and a date-added value of 2026-10-01 or later. — resolves on: The CISA KEV catalog includes at least one new vulnerability with a severity rating of 'Critical' and a date-added value of 2026-10-01 or later between 2026-10-03 and 2026-10-10.
• KKR-20260930-08 (35%, due 2026-10-13) Between 2026-10-04 and 2026-10-11, the Brent crude oil price will close above 105.00 per barrel on at least one weekday. — resolves on: The Brent crude oil price closes above 105.00 per barrel on at least one weekday between 2026-10-04 and 2026-10-11.
• KKR-20260930-09 (32%, due 2026-10-11) Between 2026-10-02 and 2026-10-09, at least one report from a hostile side confirms a missile strike on Gaza City with casualties claimed by Palestinian sources. — resolves on: At least one report from a hostile side (IL, PS, AXIS) confirms a missile strike on Gaza City during the window, with casualties claimed by Palestinian sources.
• KKR-20260930-10 (28%, due 2026-10-14) Between 2026-10-05 and 2026-10-12, the NVD will list at least one new vulnerability with a CVSS score of 9.0 or higher and a date-added value of 2026-10-01 or later. — resolves on: The NVD lists at least one new vulnerability with a CVSS score of 9.0 or higher and a date-added value of 2026-10-01 or later between 2026-10-05 and 2026-10-12.
• KKR-20260930-49 (78%, due 2026-10-19) Russia launches at least 500 drones and missiles combined against Ukraine in a single overnight attack, per the Ukrainian Air Force, on a date between 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-14. — resolves on: Reuters or AP reports, citing the Ukrainian Air Force, that Russia launched at least 500 drones and missiles combined in one overnight attack occurring between 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-14.
• KKR-20260930-59 (64%, due 2026-10-19) Russia launches at least 500 drones and missiles combined against Ukraine in a single overnight attack, per the Ukrainian Air Force, on a date between 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-14. — resolves on: Reuters or AP reports, citing the Ukrainian Air Force, that Russia launched at least 500 drones and missiles combined in one overnight attack occurring between 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-14.
• KKR-20261001-10 (30%, due 2026-10-10) On 2026-10-02, a drone attack targeting a civilian facility in Kyiv, Ukraine, results in at least one confirmed fatality, as verified by at least two independent outlets from hostile sides (RU, UA) reporting the event with casualty details. — resolves on: At least one confirmed fatality is reported in a drone attack on a civilian facility in Kyiv, Ukraine, between 2026-10-02 and 2026-10-08, as confirmed by at least two independent outlets from hostile sides (RU, UA) in corroborating reports that include casualty counts.
• KKR-20261001-11 (25%, due 2026-10-10) Between 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-07, at least one verified cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-76504 will be reported in public sources from at least two independent outlets across hostile sides (WEST, RU). — resolves on: At least one verified cyberattack exploiting CVE-2026-76504 is reported in public sources from at least two independent outlets across hostile sides (WEST, RU) between 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-07.
• KKR-20261001-13 (20%, due 2026-10-10) On 2026-10-08, the Metamask security incident will result in the permanent exit of at least 500 Ethereum validators from the network, as confirmed by a public blockchain analytics report. — resolves on: The Metamask security incident results in the permanent exit of at least 500 Ethereum validators from the network, as confirmed by a public blockchain analytics report on 2026-10-08.
• KKR-20261001-14 (28%, due 2026-10-10) Between 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-07, a confirmed cyberattack using the RedFlick technique will be reported in public sources from at least two independent outlets across hostile sides (WEST, RU). — resolves on: A confirmed cyberattack using the RedFlick technique is reported in public sources from at least two independent outlets across hostile sides (WEST, RU) between 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-07.
• KKR-20261001-15 (22%, due 2026-10-10) Between 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-07, a confirmed drone strike on a civilian facility in Tehran, Iran, will result in at least one fatality, as verified by at least two independent outlets from hostile sides (AXIS, WEST). — resolves on: A confirmed drone strike on a civilian facility in Tehran, Iran, results in at least one fatality, as verified by at least two independent outlets from hostile sides (AXIS, WEST) between 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-07.
• KKR-20261001-20 (85%, due 2026-10-19) Ukrainian forces strike at least one oil refinery on internationally recognized Russian territory between 2026-10-02 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: Reuters, AP or the Kyiv Independent reports a Ukrainian strike on a named oil refinery on Russian territory occurring between 2026-10-02 and 2026-10-15, confirmed by the General Staff of Ukraine, the SBU or Russian officials.
• KKR-20261001-27 (64%, due 2026-10-19) Ukrainian forces strike at least one oil refinery on internationally recognized Russian territory between 2026-10-02 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: Reuters, AP or the Kyiv Independent reports a Ukrainian strike on a named oil refinery on Russian territory occurring between 2026-10-02 and 2026-10-15, confirmed by the General Staff of Ukraine, the SBU or Russian officials.
• KKR-20261001-48 (91%, due 2026-10-21) A Ukrainian drone or missile strike damages an oil refinery in Russia or Russian-occupied territory on a date between 2026-10-05 and 2026-10-18. — resolves on: Reuters or AP reports that a Ukrainian drone or missile strike damaged an oil refinery in Russia or Russian-occupied territory on a date between 2026-10-05 and 2026-10-18, citing Ukrainian or Russian officials.
• KKR-20261001-55 (64%, due 2026-10-21) A Ukrainian drone or missile strike damages an oil refinery in Russia or Russian-occupied territory on a date between 2026-10-05 and 2026-10-18. — resolves on: Reuters or AP reports that a Ukrainian drone or missile strike damaged an oil refinery in Russia or Russian-occupied territory on a date between 2026-10-05 and 2026-10-18, citing Ukrainian or Russian officials.
• KKR-20261002-08 (30%, due 2026-10-16) Between 2026-10-03 and 2026-10-09, at least one drone strike with reported casualties occurs in Kyiv, Ukraine, as confirmed by at least two independently biased sources (RU, UA) reporting the same incident with casualty figures. — resolves on: The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-09, and the event is corroborated by at least two sources from different hostile sides (RU, UA) reporting the same incident with casualty figures.
• KKR-20261002-09 (40%, due 2026-10-20) Between 2026-10-08 and 2026-10-15, the UK diesel price exceeds £2.10 per litre, as reported by the Guardian World and BBC World. — resolves on: The Guardian World and BBC World report the UK diesel price exceeding £2.10 per litre on a weekday between 2026-10-08 and 2026-10-15.
• KKR-20261002-10 (20%, due 2026-10-22) Between 2026-10-10 and 2026-10-17, a cyberattack using autonomous AI agents targets a U.S. federal government website, confirmed by BleepingComputer and The Hacker News. — resolves on: BleepingComputer and The Hacker News report a cyberattack using autonomous AI agents targeting a U.S. federal government website between 2026-10-10 and 2026-10-17.
• KKR-20261002-37 (40%, due 2026-10-21) Between 2026-10-05 and 2026-10-18, Russia will launch at least 500 drones and missiles combined against Ukraine in a single overnight attack, as tallied by the Ukrainian Air Force. — resolves on: A Ukrainian Air Force tally of Russian drones plus missiles launched in one overnight attack, dated between 2026-10-05 and 2026-10-18, is at least 500, reported by at least two of Reuters, AP, Kyiv Independent.
• KKR-20261002-45 (64%, due 2026-10-21) Between 2026-10-05 and 2026-10-18, Russia will launch at least 500 drones and missiles combined against Ukraine in a single overnight attack, as tallied by the Ukrainian Air Force. — resolves on: A Ukrainian Air Force tally of Russian drones plus missiles launched in one overnight attack, dated between 2026-10-05 and 2026-10-18, is at least 500, reported by at least two of Reuters, AP, Kyiv Independent.
• KKR-20261003-09 (25%, due 2026-10-16) Between 2026-10-06 and 2026-10-13, a magnitude 5.0 or greater earthquake will be recorded by the USGS in the Pacific Northwest region (Washington, Oregon, or California) with a depth of less than 50 km. — resolves on: The USGS Significant Quakes feed reports a magnitude 5.0 or greater earthquake in the Pacific Northwest region (Washington, Oregon, or California) with a depth of less than 50 km between 2026-10-06 and 2026-10-13.
• KKR-20261003-10 (40%, due 2026-10-19) Between 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-16, a major flood event will be reported in Bangkok, Thailand, with at least one official source confirming water levels exceeding 1.5 meters in central districts. — resolves on: At least one official source confirms water levels exceeding 1.5 meters in central districts of Bangkok, Thailand, due to flooding between 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-16.
• KKR-20261003-11 (20%, due 2026-10-20) Between 2026-10-10 and 2026-10-17, a political scandal involving a U.S. federal official will be reported by at least two major wire services (e.g., Reuters, AP, Bloomberg) with a public resignation or indictment by the deadline. — resolves on: At least two major wire services report a political scandal involving a U.S. federal official with a public resignation or indictment by 2026-10-17.
• KKR-20261003-12 (35%, due 2026-10-22) Between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19, a military escalation in the Israel-Gaza-Levant Theatre will result in a confirmed airstrike on Gaza City with casualties reported by at least two hostile sides. — resolves on: A confirmed airstrike on Gaza City in the Israel-Gaza-Levant Theatre with casualties reported by at least two hostile sides occurs between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19.
• KKR-20261003-18 (40%, due 2026-10-20) A Russian strike hits a Kyiv bridge over the Dnipro other than the Pivdennyi (Southern) and Pivnichnyi (Northern) bridges between 2026-10-04 and 2026-10-17. — resolves on: True if at least two of BBC, Reuters, AP and Kyiv Independent report a Russian drone or missile strike damaging a third Kyiv Dnipro bridge on a date between 2026-10-04 and 2026-10-17.
• KKR-20261003-25 (64%, due 2026-10-20) A Russian strike hits a Kyiv bridge over the Dnipro other than the Pivdennyi (Southern) and Pivnichnyi (Northern) bridges between 2026-10-04 and 2026-10-17. — resolves on: True if at least two of BBC, Reuters, AP and Kyiv Independent report a Russian drone or missile strike damaging a third Kyiv Dnipro bridge on a date between 2026-10-04 and 2026-10-17.
• KKR-20261003-27 (57%, due 2026-10-20) Between 2026-10-04 and 2026-10-17, a Russian drone or missile strike damages at least one Kyiv Dnipro road bridge other than Pivdennyi and Pivnichnyi, namely the Paton, Metro, Darnytskyi or Podilskyi bridge. — resolves on: TRUE if Reuters, AP or BBC, citing Kyiv city authorities, report a Russian strike damaging the Paton, Metro, Darnytskyi or Podilskyi bridge between 2026-10-04 and 2026-10-17; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20261003-34 (64%, due 2026-10-20) Between 2026-10-04 and 2026-10-17, a Russian drone or missile strike damages at least one Kyiv Dnipro road bridge other than Pivdennyi and Pivnichnyi, namely the Paton, Metro, Darnytskyi or Podilskyi bridge. — resolves on: TRUE if Reuters, AP or BBC, citing Kyiv city authorities, report a Russian strike damaging the Paton, Metro, Darnytskyi or Podilskyi bridge between 2026-10-04 and 2026-10-17; otherwise FALSE.
• KKR-20261003-41 (58%, due 2026-10-20) Between 2026-10-05 and 2026-10-18, Russian drone or missile strikes hit or damage a Dnipro River bridge in Kyiv on at least three separate calendar dates. — resolves on: Kyiv Mayor Klitschko or the Kyiv City Military Administration, or two of Reuters, AP and BBC, report strikes hitting a Kyiv Dnipro bridge on three or more separate dates between 2026-10-05 and 2026-10-18.
• KKR-20261003-47 (64%, due 2026-10-20) Between 2026-10-05 and 2026-10-18, Russian drone or missile strikes hit or damage a Dnipro River bridge in Kyiv on at least three separate calendar dates. — resolves on: Kyiv Mayor Klitschko or the Kyiv City Military Administration, or two of Reuters, AP and BBC, report strikes hitting a Kyiv Dnipro bridge on three or more separate dates between 2026-10-05 and 2026-10-18.
• KKR-20261004-02 (40%, due 2026-10-13) Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping between 2026-10-04 and 2026-10-11, as stated in a public declaration by an Iranian official. — resolves on: At least two independent, non-aligned news outlets report that Iran has officially declared a closure of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping between 2026-10-04 and 2026-10-11.
• KKR-20261004-06 (45%, due 2026-10-13) A major forest fire in Brazil will be reported by GDACS Alerts with a green alert level between 2026-10-04 and 2026-10-11. — resolves on: The GDACS Alerts catalog carries a green alert for a forest fire in Brazil between 2026-10-04 and 2026-10-11.
• KKR-20261004-15 (15%, due 2026-10-13) Between 2026-10-05 and 2026-10-11, a new cyberattack targeting a U.S. federal agency will be confirmed by at least two independent sources, including one from a Western outlet and one from a non-aligned outlet. — resolves on: A cyberattack targeting a U.S. federal agency is confirmed by at least two independent sources between 2026-10-05 and 2026-10-11, with one source from a Western outlet and one from a non-aligned outlet, as verified by public reporting.
• KKR-20261004-52 (55%, due 2026-10-21) Between 2026-10-05 and 2026-10-18, at least one bridge within the city limits of Kyiv is struck by a Russian drone or missile, following the Kyiv bridge strikes reported on 2026-10-04. — resolves on: Ukrainian authorities (Kyiv city military administration, mayor, or Infrastructure Ministry) report a Russian drone or missile strike on a Kyiv bridge dated between 2026-10-05 and 2026-10-18, carried by Reuters or AP.
• KKR-20261004-60 (64%, due 2026-10-21) Between 2026-10-05 and 2026-10-18, at least one bridge within the city limits of Kyiv is struck by a Russian drone or missile, following the Kyiv bridge strikes reported on 2026-10-04. — resolves on: Ukrainian authorities (Kyiv city military administration, mayor, or Infrastructure Ministry) report a Russian drone or missile strike on a Kyiv bridge dated between 2026-10-05 and 2026-10-18, carried by Reuters or AP.
• KKR-20261005-06 (30%, due 2026-10-15) Between 2026-10-05 and 2026-10-12, at least one report from a hostile side will confirm an airstrike in Khan Younis using a drone, with casualties reported in corroborating reports. — resolves on: At least one report from a hostile side confirms an airstrike in Khan Younis using a drone, and at least one corroborating report states casualties occurred.
• KKR-20261005-10 (30%, due 2026-10-15) Between 2026-10-05 and 2026-10-12, at least one report from a hostile side will confirm a drone strike in Zaporizhzhia with casualties reported in corroborating reports. — resolves on: At least one report from a hostile side confirms a drone strike in Zaporizhzhia, and at least one corroborating report states casualties occurred.
• KKR-20261005-11 (25%, due 2026-10-21) GDACS issues a Yellow or Red alert for a tropical cyclone affecting a populated area between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19. — resolves on: The GDACS alert database records a Yellow or Red alert for a tropical cyclone affecting a populated area between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19.
• KKR-20261005-12 (20%, due 2026-10-21) A confirmed case of pneumonic plague is reported in Russia between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19. — resolves on: A public health authority (e.g., WHO, Russian Ministry of Health) or a major wire service confirms a case of pneumonic plague in Russia between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19.
• KKR-20261005-13 (70%, due 2026-10-21) A US federal court issues an indictment against the alleged developer of Ploutus ATM malware between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19. — resolves on: A US federal court issues an indictment against the alleged developer of Ploutus ATM malware on any date between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19.
• KKR-20261005-14 (75%, due 2026-10-21) The US Supreme Court hears oral arguments in the case involving big oil's bid to block climate damage lawsuits between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19. — resolves on: The US Supreme Court hears oral arguments in the case involving big oil's bid to block climate damage lawsuits on any date between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19.
• KKR-20261005-15 (30%, due 2026-10-21) A forest fire notification is issued by GDACS for Brazil between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19. — resolves on: A forest fire notification is issued by GDACS for Brazil on any date between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19.
• KKR-20261005-16 (10%, due 2026-10-21) The US Supreme Court issues a ruling in the case involving big oil's bid to block climate damage lawsuits between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19. — resolves on: The US Supreme Court issues a ruling in the case involving big oil's bid to block climate damage lawsuits on any date between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19.
• KKR-20261005-17 (35%, due 2026-10-21) A flood alert is issued by GDACS for France between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19. — resolves on: A flood alert is issued by GDACS for France on any date between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19.
• KKR-20261006-05 (35%, due 2026-10-20) Between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-18, a confirmed cyberattack will compromise the Danish population registry, resulting in the exposure of personal data for at least 8.8 million individuals. — resolves on: At least one report from two or more hostile sides (DEN, WEST) confirms a cyberattack on the Danish population registry between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-18, with exposure of personal data affecting at least 8.8 million individuals.
• KKR-20261006-12 (35%, due 2026-10-19) Kenya confirms a second Ebola death between 2026-10-10 and 2026-10-17. — resolves on: The WHO or Kenya Ministry of Health confirms a second Ebola death in Kenya within the event window.
• KKR-20261006-14 (40%, due 2026-10-19) Anduril Industries receives a final Navy contract award exceeding 2.9 billion USD for a submarine shipyard project between 2026-10-10 and 2026-10-17. — resolves on: The US Department of Defense publishes a contract award notice for Anduril Industries exceeding 2.9 billion USD for a submarine shipyard project.
• KKR-20261006-16 (30%, due 2026-10-19) A significant earthquake (magnitude 6.0 or higher) occurs in Indonesia between 2026-10-10 and 2026-10-17. — resolves on: The USGS or EMSC reports a magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake in Indonesia within the event window.
• KKR-20261006-21 (20%, due 2026-10-15) A new critical vulnerability (CVSS 9.0+) is added to the CISA KEV catalog between 2026-10-06 and 2026-10-13. — resolves on: True if a KEV entry with CVSS 9.0+ is added in the window; False if no such entry is added.
• KKR-20261007-07 (25%, due 2026-10-19) On 2026-10-15, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds 5.35 percent, based on the close of the U.S. Treasury auction on that date. — resolves on: The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield, as reported by the U.S. Department of the Treasury at the close of the auction on 2026-10-15, is greater than 5.35 percent.
• KKR-20261007-08 (35%, due 2026-10-21) On 2026-10-18, a cyberattack exploiting the Atlassian Jira and Confluence file-access flaw (CVE-2026-XXXX) is confirmed by at least two independent sources, including one from a government cybersecurity agency and one from a private security firm. — resolves on: The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-10-15 and 2026-10-18, and at least one report from a government cybersecurity agency and one from a private security firm independently confirm a cyberattack exploiting the Atlassian Jira and Confluence file-access flaw (CVE-2026-XXXX) during that window.
• KKR-20261007-31 (52%, due 2026-10-19) A hurricane makes landfall in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama or Florida between 2026-10-08 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: National Hurricane Center advisories or tropical cyclone updates report a landfall in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama or Florida between 2026-10-08 and 2026-10-15 with maximum sustained winds of at least 74 mph at landfall.
• KKR-20261007-40 (43%, due 2026-10-19) A hurricane makes landfall in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama or Florida between 2026-10-08 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: National Hurricane Center advisories or tropical cyclone updates report a landfall in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama or Florida between 2026-10-08 and 2026-10-15 with maximum sustained winds of at least 74 mph at landfall.
• KKR-20261007-43 (62%, due 2026-10-22) CISA adds at least one Atlassian product vulnerability to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-10-07 and 2026-10-20. — resolves on: The CISA KEV catalog JSON contains at least one entry with vendorProject Atlassian and a dateAdded value between 2026-10-07 and 2026-10-20 inclusive.
• KKR-20261007-44 (70%, due 2026-10-22) Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin hold a direct phone call or in-person meeting between 2026-10-07 and 2026-10-20. — resolves on: A White House or Kremlin official readout, or reports by at least two of Reuters, AP, and BBC, confirm a direct Trump-Putin call or meeting held between 2026-10-07 and 2026-10-20.
• KKR-20261007-52 (42%, due 2026-10-22) CISA adds at least one Atlassian product vulnerability to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a dateAdded value between 2026-10-07 and 2026-10-20. — resolves on: The CISA KEV catalog JSON contains at least one entry with vendorProject Atlassian and a dateAdded value between 2026-10-07 and 2026-10-20 inclusive.
• KKR-20261007-53 (69%, due 2026-10-22) Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin hold a direct phone call or in-person meeting between 2026-10-07 and 2026-10-20. — resolves on: A White House or Kremlin official readout, or reports by at least two of Reuters, AP, and BBC, confirm a direct Trump-Putin call or meeting held between 2026-10-07 and 2026-10-20.
• KKR-20261008-09 (25%, due 2026-10-17) On 2026-10-15, the CISA KEV catalog will include at least one new entry for a vulnerability with CVSS score 10.0 or higher that was actively exploited in the wild between 2026-10-08 and 2026-10-14. — resolves on: The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-10-08 and 2026-10-14 for a vulnerability with CVSS score 10.0 or higher that was actively exploited in the wild during that window.
• KKR-20261008-10 (30%, due 2026-10-18) Between 2026-10-08 and 2026-10-14, at least one drone strike reported in the Russia-Ukraine Theatre will result in confirmed casualties, defined as at least one death or serious injury, as verified by two independent sources from different hostile sides. — resolves on: At least one report from two distinct hostile sides (RU, UA, AXIS) confirms a drone strike in the Russia-Ukraine Theatre between 2026-10-08 and 2026-10-14 that resulted in at least one confirmed death or serious injury.
• KKR-20261008-11 (15%, due 2026-10-18) Between 2026-10-08 and 2026-10-14, at least one major earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or higher will be recorded by the USGS and confirmed by at least two independent seismic monitoring agencies. — resolves on: The USGS Significant Quakes feed reports a magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake between 2026-10-08 and 2026-10-14, and at least two independent seismic monitoring agencies (e.g., EMSC, GFZ) confirm the event.
• KKR-20261008-12 (25%, due 2026-10-20) On 2026-10-17, the UK government will announce a new sanctions regime targeting Russian energy exports, with the policy published in the UK Government's official register. — resolves on: The UK Government's official register (https://www.legislation.gov.uk) contains a new sanctions order targeting Russian energy exports, published on or before 2026-10-17.
• KKR-20261008-13 (40%, due 2026-10-19) On 2026-10-15, the Brent crude oil price will exceed $110 per barrel, based on the closing price from the ICE Futures Europe exchange. — resolves on: The Brent crude oil price, as reported by ICE Futures Europe on the settlement date, is greater than $110 per barrel.
• KKR-20261008-21 (30%, due 2026-10-19) The US Treasury 10-year yield closes above 5.50 percent on any US trading day between 2026-10-13 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: The closing yield of the US Treasury 10-year note exceeds 5.50 percent on the specified dates.
• KKR-20261008-33 (50%, due 2026-10-19) Hurricane Isaias makes its first US Gulf Coast landfall between 2026-10-08 and 2026-10-15 with maximum sustained winds of at least 96 mph, Category 2 or stronger. — resolves on: A National Hurricane Center advisory or tropical cyclone update issued between 2026-10-08 and 2026-10-15 UTC reports Isaias maximum sustained winds of at least 96 mph at its first US Gulf Coast landfall.
• KKR-20261008-43 (43%, due 2026-10-19) Hurricane Isaias makes its first US Gulf Coast landfall between 2026-10-08 and 2026-10-15 with maximum sustained winds of at least 96 mph, Category 2 or stronger. — resolves on: A National Hurricane Center advisory or tropical cyclone update issued between 2026-10-08 and 2026-10-15 UTC reports Isaias maximum sustained winds of at least 96 mph at its first US Gulf Coast landfall.
• KKR-20261008-52 (80%, due 2026-10-20) Between 2026-10-08 and 2026-10-16, Hurricane Isaias will make landfall along the US Gulf Coast from Louisiana through Apalachee Bay, Florida, with sustained winds of 74 mph or more. — resolves on: Between 2026-10-08 and 2026-10-16, National Hurricane Center advisories state the center of Isaias made landfall along the US Gulf Coast from Louisiana through Apalachee Bay, Florida, with sustained winds of 74 mph or more.
• KKR-20261008-62 (43%, due 2026-10-20) Between 2026-10-08 and 2026-10-16, Hurricane Isaias will make landfall along the US Gulf Coast from Louisiana through Apalachee Bay, Florida, with sustained winds of 74 mph or more. — resolves on: Between 2026-10-08 and 2026-10-16, National Hurricane Center advisories state the center of Isaias made landfall along the US Gulf Coast from Louisiana through Apalachee Bay, Florida, with sustained winds of 74 mph or more.
• KKR-20261008-72 (45%, due 2026-10-19) Hurricane Isaias makes at least one US landfall with maximum sustained winds of 96 mph (Category 2) or higher between 2026-10-08 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: True if an NHC public advisory or tropical cyclone update issued between 2026-10-08 and 2026-10-15 reports the center of Isaias crossing the US coastline with maximum sustained winds of 96 mph or higher.
• KKR-20261008-81 (43%, due 2026-10-19) Hurricane Isaias makes at least one US landfall with maximum sustained winds of 96 mph (Category 2) or higher between 2026-10-08 and 2026-10-15. — resolves on: True if an NHC public advisory or tropical cyclone update issued between 2026-10-08 and 2026-10-15 reports the center of Isaias crossing the US coastline with maximum sustained winds of 96 mph or higher.
• KKR-20261009-26 (62%, due 2026-10-20) Hurricane Isaias makes landfall on the US Gulf Coast between 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-16 with a National Hurricane Center landfall intensity of at least 111 mph maximum sustained winds (Category 3 or stronger). — resolves on: True if the NHC advisory archive for Isaias (Tropical Cyclone Update or public advisory) gives maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or more at a US Gulf Coast landfall between 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-16; otherwise false.
• KKR-20261009-35 (43%, due 2026-10-20) Hurricane Isaias makes landfall on the US Gulf Coast between 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-16 with a National Hurricane Center landfall intensity of at least 111 mph maximum sustained winds (Category 3 or stronger). — resolves on: True if the NHC advisory archive for Isaias (Tropical Cyclone Update or public advisory) gives maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or more at a US Gulf Coast landfall between 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-16; otherwise false.
• KKR-20261010-01 (30%, due 2026-10-18) Between 2026-10-10 and 2026-10-16, a magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake occurs in Panama, confirmed by USGS Significant Quakes and GDACS Alerts. — resolves on: A magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake occurs in Panama between 2026-10-10 and 2026-10-16, as confirmed by USGS Significant Quakes and GDACS Alerts.
• KKR-20261010-02 (35%, due 2026-10-18) Between 2026-10-10 and 2026-10-16, the US Department of Treasury releases a new sanctions list targeting Russian energy firms, confirmed by Al Jazeera and BBC World. — resolves on: The US Department of Treasury releases a new sanctions list targeting Russian energy firms between 2026-10-10 and 2026-10-16, as confirmed by Al Jazeera and BBC World.
• KKR-20261010-03 (30%, due 2026-10-22) Between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-18, a Russian glide bomb attack on Zaporizhzhia will result in at least 15 confirmed fatalities. — resolves on: At least 15 confirmed fatalities are reported in the aftermath of a Russian glide bomb attack on Zaporizhzhia between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-18.
• KKR-20261010-17 (25%, due 2026-10-22) The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-10-11 and 2026-10-18 for a vulnerability exploited in the wild to deploy webshells or mine crypto. — resolves on: A new entry in the CISA KEV catalog with a date-added value in the window and description matching webshell deployment or crypto mining.
• KKR-20261010-18 (30%, due 2026-10-20) WTI Crude futures settle above 95.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-10-13 and 2026-10-16. — resolves on: A settlement price for WTI Crude futures exceeding 95.00 USD per barrel on a weekday in the window.
• KKR-20261010-19 (65%, due 2026-10-22) A Russian glide bomb or missile strike hits a populated area in Ukraine causing at least 10 fatalities between 2026-10-11 and 2026-10-18. — resolves on: Two wire services report a Russian strike on a populated area in Ukraine with 10 or more fatalities in the window.
• KKR-20261010-20 (45%, due 2026-10-22) India detains at least 500 individuals in New Delhi during protests between 2026-10-11 and 2026-10-18. — resolves on: Two wire services report the detention of at least 500 individuals in New Delhi during protests in the window.
• KKR-20261010-21 (15%, due 2026-10-22) A magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake occurs in Panama between 2026-10-11 and 2026-10-18. — resolves on: The USGS catalog carries a date-added value in the window for a magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake in Panama.
• KKR-20261010-22 (35%, due 2026-10-22) A tropical storm or hurricane makes landfall in the United States between 2026-10-11 and 2026-10-18. — resolves on: The NWS or NOAA issues a landfall warning or report for a tropical storm or hurricane in the United States in the window.
• KKR-20261010-23 (5%, due 2026-10-22) A major cyberattack disrupts the power grid of a NATO member state between 2026-10-11 and 2026-10-18. — resolves on: Two wire services report a major cyberattack disrupting the power grid of a NATO member state in the window.
• KKR-20261011-01 (28%, due 2026-10-20) On 2026-10-12, a missile strike confirmed by at least two hostile sides (RU, UA) occurred in Kyiv, resulting in at least one casualty and damage to a civilian infrastructure site. — resolves on: The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-18, and the event is corroborated by at least two independent sources from hostile sides (RU, UA) reporting a missile strike in Kyiv with at least one casualty and confirmed infrastructure damage.
• KKR-20261011-02 (45%, due 2026-10-22) Between 2026-10-14 and 2026-10-20, a cyberattack exploiting a vulnerability in the Nippon Columbia karaoke database results in the exfiltration of at least 8 million user records, as confirmed by a third-party security audit. — resolves on: The CISA KEV catalog carries a date-added value between 2026-10-14 and 2026-10-20, and a third-party security audit confirms that at least 8 million user records were exfiltrated from the Nippon Columbia database due to a known vulnerability.
• KKR-20261011-04 (30%, due 2026-10-19) On 2026-10-17, the S&P 500 closes below 7,750 points for the first time since 2026-09-20, as confirmed by the Dow Jones Market Data feed. — resolves on: The Dow Jones Market Data feed confirms that the S&P 500 closed below 7,750 points on 2026-10-17, with the closing value recorded at or below 7,749.99.
• KKR-20261011-14 (30%, due 2026-10-22) The S&P 500 index closes below 7,500 on at least one trading day between 2026-10-16 and 2026-10-20. — resolves on: A market close recorded below 7,500. Reference: 7,811.54 on the packet date.
• KKR-20261011-15 (45%, due 2026-10-21) A Houthi missile or drone strike hits a target inside Saudi Arabia between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19. — resolves on: Two wire services report a kinetic strike by Houthi forces on Saudi territory within the window.
• KKR-20261011-16 (20%, due 2026-10-21) A magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake occurs in Panama between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19. — resolves on: The USGS catalog carries a date-added value for an event with magnitude 7.0 or higher in Panama.
• KKR-20261011-19 (25%, due 2026-10-22) Houthi forces launch a kinetic strike on Riyadh airport between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19 — resolves on: Al Jazeera or BBC World reports a confirmed Houthi strike on Riyadh airport within the window
• KKR-20261011-20 (20%, due 2026-10-22) A magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake occurs in Panama between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19 — resolves on: USGS Significant Quakes reports a magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake in Panama between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19
• KKR-20261011-21 (65%, due 2026-10-22) Pope Leo XIV undergoes lung surgery between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19 — resolves on: NPR News or BBC World reports that Pope Leo XIV has undergone lung surgery between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19
• KKR-20261011-22 (35%, due 2026-10-22) Polish police confirm a plot to assassinate Prime Minister Donald Tusk between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19 — resolves on: Al Jazeera or Guardian World reports that Polish police have confirmed a plot to assassinate Prime Minister Donald Tusk between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19
• KKR-20261011-23 (40%, due 2026-10-22) A migrant boat capsizes off Djibouti with at least 100 dead between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19 — resolves on: Al Jazeera or BBC World reports a migrant boat capsizing off Djibouti with at least 100 dead between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19
• KKR-20261011-24 (55%, due 2026-10-22) Nippon Columbia malware incident exposes at least 8 million records between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19 — resolves on: BleepingComputer reports that the Nippon Columbia malware incident has exposed at least 8 million records between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19
• KKR-20261011-46 (65%, due 2026-10-21) Hurricane Simon makes landfall on the Mexican coast with sustained winds of at least 74 mph between 2026-10-11 and 2026-10-18. — resolves on: US National Hurricane Center advisories or best-track data record the center of Simon crossing the Mexican coast with maximum sustained winds of at least 74 mph between 2026-10-11 and 2026-10-18.
• KKR-20261011-47 (88%, due 2026-10-21) Pope Leo XIV undergoes surgery on his lung between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-18. — resolves on: The Holy See Press Office or Vatican News confirms that Pope Leo XIV underwent lung surgery dated between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-18 inclusive.
• KKR-20261011-48 (40%, due 2026-10-21) Between 2026-10-11 and 2026-10-18, both the Kremlin and the Ukrainian presidential office publicly say their side has agreed to or will observe a halt on strikes on energy infrastructure. — resolves on: Reuters or AP reports statements dated 2026-10-11 to 2026-10-18 in which both a Kremlin official and Zelensky or his office say their side agreed to or will observe a halt on strikes on energy infrastructure.
• KKR-20261011-55 (43%, due 2026-10-21) Hurricane Simon makes landfall on the Mexican coast with sustained winds of at least 74 mph between 2026-10-11 and 2026-10-18. — resolves on: US National Hurricane Center advisories or best-track data record the center of Simon crossing the Mexican coast with maximum sustained winds of at least 74 mph between 2026-10-11 and 2026-10-18.
• KKR-20261011-56 (41%, due 2026-10-21) Pope Leo XIV undergoes surgery on his lung between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-18. — resolves on: The Holy See Press Office or Vatican News confirms that Pope Leo XIV underwent lung surgery dated between 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-18 inclusive.
• KKR-20261011-57 (41%, due 2026-10-21) Between 2026-10-11 and 2026-10-18, both the Kremlin and the Ukrainian presidential office publicly say their side has agreed to or will observe a halt on strikes on energy infrastructure. — resolves on: Reuters or AP reports statements dated 2026-10-11 to 2026-10-18 in which both a Kremlin official and Zelensky or his office say their side agreed to or will observe a halt on strikes on energy infrastructure.
• KKR-20261012-09 (20%, due 2026-10-20) On 2026-10-17, the U.S. Department of State will issue a formal statement condemning Iran for threatening to disrupt maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, citing a prior intelligence assessment. — resolves on: The U.S. Department of State will issue a formal statement on or before 2026-10-17 condemning Iran for threatening to disrupt maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, referencing a prior intelligence assessment, as confirmed by a transcript on the State Department website.
• KKR-20261012-10 (45%, due 2026-10-22) On 2026-10-19, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration will issue a new safety advisory for flights over Saudi Arabia, citing increased risk from Houthi attacks, as published in the FAA's official advisory database. — resolves on: The FAA's official advisory database will publish a new safety advisory for flights over Saudi Arabia on or before 2026-10-19, citing increased risk from Houthi attacks, as confirmed by the FAA's official website.
• KKR-20261012-30 (38%, due 2026-10-19) The BLS release scheduled for 2026-10-14 shows the September 2026 CPI-U all-items 12-month change at or above 3.7 percent. Reference: 3.4 percent for August 2026, the latest reading on the packet date. — resolves on: TRUE if the BLS Consumer Price Index release of 2026-10-14 (FRED CPIAUCNS) shows September 2026 all-items CPI-U up 3.7 percent or more over 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. Reference: 3.4 percent for August 2026.
• KKR-20261012-38 (60%, due 2026-10-19) The BLS release scheduled for 2026-10-14 shows the September 2026 CPI-U all-items 12-month change at or above 3.7 percent. Reference: 3.4 percent for August 2026, the latest reading on the packet date. — resolves on: TRUE if the BLS Consumer Price Index release of 2026-10-14 (FRED CPIAUCNS) shows September 2026 all-items CPI-U up 3.7 percent or more over 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. Reference: 3.4 percent for August 2026.
• KKR-20261013-09 (85%, due 2026-10-22) Kimberly Guilfoyle resigns as US Ambassador to Greece between 2026-10-13 and 2026-10-20 — resolves on: Kimberly Guilfoyle submits her resignation as US Ambassador to Greece between 2026-10-13 and 2026-10-20
• KKR-20261013-11 (25%, due 2026-10-22) The USGS Significant Quakes catalog records a magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake in Panama between 2026-10-13 and 2026-10-20 — resolves on: The USGS Significant Quakes catalog records a magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake in Panama between 2026-10-13 and 2026-10-20
• KKR-20261013-12 (30%, due 2026-10-22) Yemeni government forces advance into or capture Taiz between 2026-10-13 and 2026-10-20 — resolves on: Yemeni government forces advance into or capture Taiz between 2026-10-13 and 2026-10-20
• KKR-20261013-16 (60%, due 2026-10-22) Six Flags stock closes below 10.00 on at least one trading day between 2026-10-14 and 2026-10-21. — resolves on: Six Flags stock closes below 10.00 on at least one trading day between 2026-10-14 and 2026-10-21.
• KKR-20261014-05 (40%, due 2026-10-22) On 2026-10-20, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds 5.3% at the close of trading, as reported by FRED. — resolves on: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds 5.3% at the close of trading on 2026-10-20, as reported by FRED.

(U//OS)03. OPEN PROJECTIONS▲